November 10, 2017

The Heady Days Are Over

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “We’ve recently begun seeing more and more of that rarest of rarities in San Francisco: the price reduction. For homes that come to market in October and fail to find an immediate buyer, the reductions can come within weeks. At Baker and Sutter, for example, a top-floor condo with three bedrooms and two baths came to market October 19 asking $1,495,000. By November 2, it had already dropped its asking price by $100,000. At 540 Fillmore Street, the updated Victorian single-family came to market asking $3,595,00 on October 16. Weeks later it dropped $200,000 off the asking price.”

“In a fact-filled presentation Randy Thibaut compared Southwest Florida’s real estate market to that ‘nasty sea hag Irma.’ As with the hurricane, he said, ‘There are things we need to watch for or we get slammed.’ Thibaut, president and CEO of Land Solutions Inc, offered several examples of developers struggling to get high-rises off the ground in Fort Myers. He cautioned there are always ups and downs in any real estate cycle, Thibaut said. ‘We are right now statistically on some borrowed time,’ he said.”

“While the vast majority of condo projects proceed as planned in Toronto, CBC News has learned that more than a handful of proposed projects have failed this year alone, leaving hundreds if not thousands of buyers in limbo. Earlier this year, a project adjacent to the Mimico GO station in Etobicoke was placed into receivership after the developer, Stanton Renaissance, failed to meet its financial obligations. The company owed millions to suppliers and contractors. Hundreds of people who bought proposed condos and townhomes from Urbancorp are still fighting the bankrupt developer in court to recoup some of their losses.”

“Real estate lawyer Bob Aaron says it doesn’t take much for a proposed condo to fail. A developer can simply decide they don’t want the hassle of building if profits appear to be diminishing. ‘It’s always a case of buyer beware,’ he said. ‘Sometimes purchasers think, ‘I’m going to make so much money, I don’t care about buyer beware, I’ll take the risks.’ Sometimes when the market gets a little tighter, people are a little more cautious.’”

“Britain’s housing market is vanishing before our eyes. It’s not that prices are in free-fall — so far — but the number of transactions actually completing is dwindling. Houses of all prices have been hit, the data from the Land Registry show. By September, the drought had hit hardest those homes priced at about 500,000 pounds close to the median price for the city.”

“With Windhoek houses for sale spending an average 24 weeks on the market (and 27 weeks in the upper income segment alone), the country’s residential property market has shifted from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market and this has caused a notable drop in price growth. Leading FNB analyst Josephat Nambashu says, ‘housing demand is faltering’ and when the properties on the market eventually do sell, ‘98 percent sell below the original asking price.’”

“BIDV’s Exchange No 2 has announced the auction of debt of Vina Medin JSC and 584 Group, worth VND1.1 trillion, including the principal and interest as of July 31, 2017. The starting price is VND810.3 billion. The collateral for the loan is a 174.5 square meter land plot and the 584 Tan Kien residential quarter project in Binh Chanh district, which includes two 15-storey apartment buildings with 700 apartments. Some days ago, VAMC announced that it had seized Saigon One Tower building developed by Sai Gon One Tower JSC because the debtor failed to pay off its debts (principal and interest) of VND7 trillion.”

“The future of the projects seized for foreclosure is uncertain. Tens of people who paid 80-90 percent of value of apartments showed protests against the plan to turn the apartment project into a hospital. According to the HCMC Real Estate Association, in HCMC alone, 470 projects are frozen, most of which are collateral for loans.”

“An avalanche effect is working through the Sydney housing market with slower buyer demand feeding into lower vendor expectations and back again, resulting in flattened house prices two months in a row for Australia’s most expensive market. Asking prices have decreased about 3 to 9 per cent for the lower north shore, including Neutral Bay and North Sydney. Numbers at open home inspections have shrunk by up to 80 per cent, with one agent, who didn’t want to be named saying he had 5 people turn up at an inspection in North Sydney. A year ago, when he sold the same property, he hosted 45 buyers.”

“Twenty-eight-year-old Auckland property investor Tim owns one property that is negatively geared. At present, the sting of some of that pain is removed each year when he is able to claim a $2000 or $3000 tax refund. But that is set to change. ‘As part of a comprehensive response to the housing crisis, the Labour-led Government will remove the ability of speculators to offset losses from their property portfolio against their other sources of income in this term of office,’ Revenue Minister Stuart Nash said.”

“Tim, who does not want to be identified, said he would notice the difference. ‘But whose fault is it really, for buying overly-expensive property with low yields? I only have myself to blame.’”

“This Government seems intent on cementing the slowdown in house price inflation. Policies such as bans on foreign buyers, Kiwibuild and reduced immigration are just some of the factors that will adversely affect the housing market. It is worth considering the likely implications of a stagnant or declining housing market. It is becoming obvious that the heady days are over. The end of the housing boom is likely to expose an unpleasant truth. We are a relatively low-income developed economy with a high cost of living. Housing inflation has helped disguise this truth in recent years.”

“People have been willing to overlook the lack of growth in their pay packets as their houses have increased in value. This is the likely reason why the previous government was unwilling to collect meaningful data on the effects of overseas buyers on the market. An early sign of a slackening in the property market is a dramatic fall in sales volume. This is already occurring. A further sign is a fall in the number of real estate agents. Another sign is a proliferation of ‘for sale’ signs on properties and a decline in auction clearance rates. This is also starting to occur. The final sign is the welcome end of ‘renovation and resell’ programmes being screened on television.”

“There is an interesting irony in all of this. These ultra-low interest rates are due to expansionary monetary policy which is a legacy of the global financial crisis. The GFC was largely the result of unwise lending practices. So people have been encouraged to borrow more to get us out of the mess created by unwise borrowing. That makes sense?”

“A moribund or stagnating housing market is likely to weigh heavily on the wider economy in terms of output and employment. It exposes the reality that no country in history has become wealthy off housing inflation. As this reality sinks in this Government is likely to cop the blame. But we have been living in fantasy land for a long time and many of us knew it. We just choose to ignore it.”




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84 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-10 08:28:09

‘The final sign is the welcome end of ‘renovation and resell’ programmes being screened on television.’

It might seem like a small indicator, but there should never be TV shows about flipping houses. If you have those something is seriously screwed up.

‘There is an interesting irony in all of this. These ultra-low interest rates are due to expansionary monetary policy which is a legacy of the global financial crisis. The GFC was largely the result of unwise lending practices. So people have been encouraged to borrow more to get us out of the mess created by unwise borrowing. That makes sense?’

No, it never did. When Bernanke announced it, a few said so but nothing was done. Without much fanfare they started buying trillions with phony money and practically all the central banks joined in. Now the global economy is fooked.

Let me ask you: could it have worked out any other way?

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-10 09:14:01

“It might seem like a small indicator, but there should never be TV shows about flipping houses. If you have those something is seriously screwed up.”

This is spot on. Not only is the existence of these shows troubling, the mass viewership is equally disturbing. It shows how the bubble has permeated society.

Comment by SFMF
2017-11-10 11:12:58

People flip all sorts of things. I’ve done a lot of car “flipping” over the years. I scour Craigslist ads looking for under valued cars and/or people desperate to sell. For the former, a few trips to Autozone and a few hours of work can lead to several thousand dollar profits. A lot of people think their car is worthless and sell it for $1K or $2K, when in fact $500 of parts and a weekend in the garage can turn that into a $4K or $5K car. For the latter…it’s amazing how cash on the hood motivates some people to sell for a ridiculously low price. Then a $150 detail and and easy sale for 10-20% profit.

Now granted doing this with houses is on a grander scale and the time/amounts is higher. But the concept is the same. And there’s nothing wrong with doing it.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-10 11:39:23

Somehow we managed to exist without house flipping for centuries. It’s an expense. The transaction costs alone should prohibit most flipping. I understand there will always be distressed sales. But to have a global TV shack flipping industry supposedly worth $13 billion suggests something abnormal is going on.

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Comment by SFMF
2017-11-10 11:59:28

It’s reality TV, that of course isn’t real. It’s all scripted and the outcome is known ahead of time. My wife watches those shows on HGTV. It’s harmless fun. It’s not like she watches an episode and then runs out to buy a house to flip.

It’s like all those cooking shows. Nobody actually cooks any of the things they see. It’s just fun to watch the cooks do it. Or all those travel shows to exotic locales.

Harmless entertainment.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-11-10 12:27:06

The act of buying a rundown home and fixing it up isn’t new.

HOWEVER, when I was a kid it was called a “fixer-upper”, and the activity was mainly done by the family that was going to live in it. Some folks that I know are serial “fixer-uppers”…once they’ve fixed up the home (while living in it for a couple of years), they sell it, pocketing any gains tax free.

House flipping has turned that activity into a business. In theory there should be little profit in the activity–if the population as a whole is pretty handy (ie. could do the work rather painlessly by themselves if they wanted).

However, I’m always amazed at how many people are in shock that I can do rather simple tasks like change out a light switch, or plug, or do some basic plumbing, etc. It seems like people are becoming more and more reliant on third parties to do this kind of work.

And in THAT universe, where most people can’t do basic “fixer-upper” activities on their own (or are unwilling to learn), there does open up the potential for people to complete the “fixer-upper” as a business.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-10 12:59:39

“However, I’m always amazed at how many people are in shock that I can do rather simple tasks like change out a light switch, or plug, or do some basic plumbing, etc.”

You must have some pretty inept friends. I’ve never heard of somebody being amazed by somebody’s ability to change out an electrical outlet or switch.

“It seems like people are becoming more and more reliant on third parties to do this kind of work.”

You’ve got it backwards. There are more do-it-yourselfers today than there have ever been. It laid the foundation for Megacorps like Home Depot and Lowes.

 
Comment by Karen
2017-11-10 14:21:53

It’s like all those cooking shows. Nobody actually cooks any of the things they see. It’s just fun to watch the cooks do it. Or all those travel shows to exotic locales.

Harmless entertainment.

The cooking shows don’t promote the idea of making millions by learning how to flip pancakes.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2017-11-10 14:48:31

I and two friends, while still in high school, bought a run down 4 unit property in 1972 and fixed it up. We ended up giving the income to the mom who managed it for us when we all went away to college.

Fixing up property has been going on since there has been property. The advent of reality shows does not mean the advent of reality, any more than the advent of flipper shows means the beginning of the rehab industry.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-10 14:56:40

However, I’m always amazed at how many people are in shock that I can do rather simple tasks like change out a light switch, or plug, or do some basic plumbing, etc. It seems like people are becoming more and more reliant on third parties to do this kind of work.

Well, I think that is part of the increasing specialization of our economy. Not to long ago many people had sewing machines and would actually sew their own clothes. Nowadays, very few people would think it is worth the time to learn how to sew, aside from the hobby element and intrinsic benefit derived from learning a valuable skill. But from an economic standpoint, it’s probably better to specialize in what you do. Incidentally, I think cooking is becoming like handyman repairs: it is increasingly becoming something Americans don’t do, and will pay others to do as we buy more and more food from restaurants for every meal.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-10 15:00:41

However, I’m always amazed at how many people are in shock that I can do rather simple tasks like change out a light switch, or plug, or do some basic plumbing, etc. It seems like people are becoming more and more reliant on third parties to do this kind of work.

I can’t do this stuff. Same with car stuff. I know I could learn, but I don’t care to. I’ve made the determination that it’s more economical for me to trade my time in doing more of what I am specialized in. I’d rather pay someone who does this professionally.

 
Comment by tj
2017-11-10 15:23:23

I’ve made the determination that it’s more economical for me to trade my time in doing more of what I am specialized in.”

you’re correct. it’s the most economically efficient thing to do.

 
Comment by SFMF
2017-11-10 15:44:02

“It seems like people are becoming more and more reliant on third parties to do this kind of work.”

We are a rich society and will pay someone to do the mundane/dirty stuff in exchange for leisure time. This is a good thing and should be celebrated. You know where people don’t have leisure time? In poor countries. You know where people have a lot of leisure time? In rich countries.

I’ll start worrying when people start sewing their own clothes
again. That’s a sign of economic hard times.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2017-11-10 16:07:40

Ben Jones: Somehow we managed to exist without house flipping for centuries. It’s an expense. The transaction costs alone should prohibit most flipping.

• I am pretty sure this is a global phenomenon underpinned by central banks (Fed, ECB, PBOC, BOJ) injecting vast quantities of money into their financial sectors (a “global liquidity bubble” as another poster characterized it). That money finds its way into the financial markets.

• I conclude that by seeing house prices moving generally in concert in multiple countries.

• I’ve read opinions by others that there is NOT a lot of speculative demand. Flipping TV shows suggest there IS a significant amount of speculative demand.

• If any of the central banks which affect the US start tightening, that could flush out the speculators. And by speculators, I’m not just talking about all cash deep pocket types, I’m also talking people buying at the edge of their purchasing ability because ‘housing only ever goes up.’

• There are a lot of policies designed to fan the flames of house prices in the US, but that don’t exist in other countries, but those countries also exhibit similar price movements.

• I think the top of the central banks and Wall Street companies have a much better picture of the economy and policy than most. I remember Bernanke’s background as a “Depression scholar” being touted when he was being appointed Fed head. I thought, ‘Why are they emphasizing this point?’ The rest is history :)

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-10 16:31:32

Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK are tightening loans and some are raising interest rates, at least for some investor loans. There are also measures to tax (foreign buyers/vacant houses), enforce anti-money laundering laws and in China, restrict capital outflows. Look at Canada: after years of denying there’s a problem, the governments are popping the bubble in one region after another. Even in the US regulators are scrutinizing shell companies.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-10 18:40:45

“I think the top of the central banks and Wall Street companies have a much better picture of the economy and policy than most. I remember Bernanke’s background as a “Depression scholar” being touted when he was being appointed Fed head. I thought, ‘Why are they emphasizing this point?’ The rest is history..”

I guess one could conclude that what Bernanke did worked. Around here, the economy is so hot that fast food pays $15 per hour in places, and the streets are so packed with traffic it’s almost impossible to get around.

That being said, homelessness has exploded and people are in debt up to their eyeballs. I don’t know how this ends but I certainly never anticipated that they’d be able to blow an even bigger bubble.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2017-11-10 19:03:18

BlackSwanDive: I guess one could conclude that what Bernanke did worked.

It most assuredly preserved the status quo - the thing that led us into the problem. Whether that’s a good or a bad thing, history will decide.

 
 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-10 12:54:16

Car flipping is illegal without a dealer’s license. If I want to resort to crime, I’ll do something that is more lucrative.

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Comment by SFMF
2017-11-10 14:22:36

It varies state by state, but generally you can buy/sell a few cars a year sans dealer’s license. What is illegal is title jumping, ie the car is never titled in your name. But as long as I title in my name (which I do) and stay under the annual threshold (which I do as well), nothing illegal about it.

 
Comment by Karen
2017-11-10 14:24:55

10-20% is a sad profit margin.

Read an article not long ago about people from New England who drive down to the Florida pill mills to buy pills that they haul back north in their cars to flip.

The article presented it as these big-time criminals making big bucks, but when I calculated the profit margin based on the article’s numbers, it was pretty sad.

Even criminals are operating on low margins these days! Dry cleaner effect!

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2017-11-10 14:49:35

Can allows 4 per year. I did it as a teenager with my uncle.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2017-11-10 14:50:37

CA allows 4 per year…..spell check got ahead of me….

 
Comment by SFMF
2017-11-10 15:13:32

Karen,

This isn’t my job. It’s a little side gig that I do partly to make money partly because I’m a gear head and I like the idea of making a few bucks doing something I like…..fixing cars.

Comparing this to drug running??!?! Jezuz, lighten up.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-11-10 18:40:58

A used car pimp. Sounds about right.

 
 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-10 14:53:01

I don’t disdain the people who put in the sweat equity to create value. When people have the skills and know-how, and they buy at the right price, they can create value for everyone involved. This, however, is vastly different from people buying something and hoping to just sit on it and ride the asset bubble appreciation. The former is a form of work, the later is gambling.

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Comment by Patrick
2017-11-10 18:41:48

Ben

“Could it have worked out any other way?”

Yes. A proper correction would have been painful but at least the ones who created the mess would have been the first to feel it.

And the recovery would have started years ago, because everything would have been cheaper.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-11-10 08:37:42

Waipahu, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/waipahu-hi/market-trends/

Comment by jeff
2017-11-10 09:35:13

The sea was angry today my friends.

The waves were crashing like house prices in Waipahu, Hawaii.

Comment by whirlyite
2017-11-10 11:10:24

Is that a Titleist?

Comment by jeff
2017-11-10 20:06:03

Hole in one. :)

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Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-11-10 20:21:54

You call this soup??!?

 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-11-10 08:37:53

Realtors are liars.

 
Comment by 2banana
2017-11-10 09:19:49

Ok - Raise your hand.

Who is going to chase the market down?

After all, you can’t give it away!

++++++

London House Prices “Battered From All Sides”
ZeroHedge - Nov 10, 2017

London’s housing market is being battered from all sides. A survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed a price gauge at its lowest level for seven years, and far below the national average.

“With both buyer enquiries slipping and sales expectations also subdued, the sense is that homeowners are staying put,” he said. “A stagnant second-hand market is bad news for the wider economy.”

Besides London, the RICS survey showed that house prices are declining in three other regions, two of them being “commuter-able” to London – the South East and East Anglia – as well as the North East.

“We usually have buyers registering, keen to move before Christmas, said Alan Fuller of Allan Fuller Estate Agents in Putney. “So far we are registering 80 percent less than normal during October. Vendors more receptive to price drops and some are agreeing to 10 percent reductions, which are then attracting interest.”

“Market remains active up to 1.5 million pounds, whereas above 2 million pounds offers are coming in around 10 percent below asking,” said JJ King at Andrew Scott Robertson in the Merton borough. “Instruction levels are slowing although valuations are up.”

“The sales market has dramatically changed and technically crashed across the board,” said valuer Josh Homans. “In E2, the difference between asking and sale price is a staggering 20 percent.”

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-11-10 09:40:00

REIC lobbyists to WH: “Please pass the lard.”

WH: “Your wish is my command.”

Financial Times
US tax
US homebuilders hang hopes on tax credit in reforms
- Real estate industry worries Republican overhaul will undercut values and hurt housing
- The reforms threaten homebuyers’ cherished ability to deduct mortgage interest payments from taxable income
© Bloomberg
4 hours ago
Barney Jopson in Washington

The White House has given a glimmer of hope to US homebuilders worried they would be punished by Republican tax reforms, saying it could accept a new tax credit for homeowners.

Homebuilders are waging an aggressive lobbying campaign against a plan from the House of Representatives that clips tax benefits for homebuyers, including the cherished ability to deduct mortgage interest payments from taxable income.

The Republican plans are part of an effort to eliminate tax breaks for individuals to pay for a cut in corporate tax. But the initiative — part of an attempt to make tax reform President Donald Trump’s first major legislative win — has turned American homeowners into pawns in a bigger battle.

A rival tax reform plan presented by Republicans in the Senate on Thursday would preserve the mortgage interest benefit, but seeks to eliminate another break for homeowners — the ability to deduct state property taxes from federal returns.

The National Association of Home Builders, a powerful trade group, says the House plan would undercut home values and is trying to turn lawmakers against it. It is arguing for a new tax credit based on homeowners’ mortgage interest and property tax bills to make up for the impact of other changes.

A Trump administration official told the Financial Times: “The White House does not have a public stance on this particular proposal. We wouldn’t be opposed to a bill that includes it, but what we’re more focused on is ensuring that this process continues to move forward expeditiously. If including this credit helps us meet that goal, we wouldn’t be opposed.”

Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-11-10 09:53:03

“a new tax credit…”

to replace lost deductions!

What a shell game these shysters play.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-10 15:03:51

I wonder if the net effect of this tax plan will be that housing becomes even more subsidized than it already is, thus inflating the bubble even more.

 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
2017-11-10 15:05:04

MID should be eliminated. There is no reason to encourage home owners to borrow more money. Maybe a revised SALT deduction could be used allowing the deduction equal to you percentage of equity ( using the original purchase price). 20% equity = 20% of the total is deductable….

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-10 21:30:09

So if you owned your primary residence outright, then 100% would be deductible? I mean, it seems pretty regressive, but the incentive is aligned with the behavior we want as a society. We are better served when people actually own residences outright and pay down their mortgage. It gives people so much more financial security and lifts a huge weight off their shoulders.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-11-10 22:27:00

“We are better served when people actually own residences outright and pay down their mortgage.”

Why?

“It gives people so much more financial security and lifts a huge weight off their shoulders.”

Tell that to the folks who either walked away from their underwater mortgages or lost their jobs, then their homes after involuntary defaults during the 2007-2009 episode. Lots of people lost all of their sham financial security thanks to buying into the REIC propaganda you are promulgating.

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Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-10 22:41:19

I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying. I am saying our society benefits when residents actually “own” their homes free and clear, without a mortgage. You don’t walk away from a home you own without a mortgage. My entire point is that when we cite the “home ownership rate” that is essentially a misnomer since it conflates those who actually do own their home with those who maybe own the front porch and who have a ginormous mortgage.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-11-11 13:14:48

‘I am saying our society benefits when residents actually “own” their homes free and clear, without a mortgage.’

Wouldn’t it be better for people to diversify their wealth across multiple asset classes, rather than going all in on housing?

 
Comment by tresho
2017-11-11 13:30:50

You don’t walk away from a home you own without a mortgage.
When the taxes on the home you think you own (but actually only rent from the taxing authority) get high enough, this could very well change.
During the last days of the Roman Empire, some of its citizens moved out to live with the barbarians rather than pay their taxes.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-11 17:32:31

Wouldn’t it be better for people to diversify their wealth across multiple asset classes, rather than going all in on housing?

Yes. This is why I don’t own a house, though could purchase one with cash. Our core belief is that housing should be about 10% of one’s investment. So far I haven’t found a suitable place for purchase that is 10% of our savings.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-11-11 18:45:40

Considering a house is a depreciating asset, it’s a very poor investment.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-11 21:12:28

It’s not an investment. The value of housing is it’s ability to save on what one would pay in rent. Even accounting for housing depreciation, it can make sense in some cases to turn from bear to bull and pull the trigger. I run these calculations all the time to make sure that our decision to keep renting makes sense. It does right now, so we continue.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-11-14 13:54:40

With rents half the cost of buying, the only trigger you’re pulling is the one on the iron pointed at yourself.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-11-10 09:59:16

Report: Denver sees second straight month of rent decreases
Kurt Sevits
7:10 AM, Nov 1, 2017

DENVER – The cost of renting in Denver has dropped for the second month in a row.

That’s according to the latest data from rental listing site ApartmentList. It found that Denver rents dropped nearly 1 percent in October to a median cost of $1,050 per month for a one-bedroom unit and $1,330 for a two-bedroom.

While prices have dipped in the past two months, rents are up by 2 percent compared to the same time last year. That’s actually lower than the state average of 3 percent and the U.S. average of 2.7 percent.

Lone Tree, which has the most expensive rents in the metro, also saw the biggest decreases last month with rents down 1.7 percent.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-11-10 10:10:33

NYC RENTAL MARKET REPORTS
Could rents in NYC finally begin to show some signs of relief?
The median rent slipped in Brooklyn, Queens and Manhattan
by Emily Nonko Nov 9, 2017, 8:37am EST

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-10 10:15:36

Rents have been falling there for around two years.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-11-10 10:43:39

How interesting…particularly given that there isn’t even the slightest whiff of panic. How long will it take for the denial stage to pass?

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-10 11:01:57

How interesting…particularly given that there isn’t even the slightest whiff of panic. How long will it take for the denial stage to pass?

Now that we’ve been trained to buy the dip there may be no panic until the dip seems like a new permanently low plateau.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-11-10 13:56:04

But the central bankers’ cartel has insured that permanently low plateaus are unpossible. So keep buying, and rest assured that your real estate investments are guaranteed to always go up.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-10 18:09:44

But the central bankers’ cartel has insured that permanently low plateaus are unpossible.

Only if they destroy the dollar. But I agree that’s what it would seem they are determined to do rather than let the wrong people take a loss.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-11-10 21:37:43

They’ve been gradually and continuously destroying the dollar since 1913, in order to preserve the union.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-11 16:49:02

They did it to preserve the union? Wow, how noble. :-)

I just thought it was just because they want it to be useable as a medium of exchange but not as a long term store of value. If it’s a store of value then the rich will horde it and the debt based system that requires circulation falls apart. Or are you saying that’s what’s necessary to preserve the union? :-)

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-11-10 10:45:54

Equity Residential “Same Store” results from their latest 10-Q turned positive in NYC for the quarter (year on year)…was negative last quarter.

YTD 2017 “same store” in NYC (9 months, not 3) was basically flat (up slightly) vs. YTD 2016.

SL Green, either the largest (or second largest) landlord in NYC filed their 10-Q yesterday:

Same-store results up year-on-year…both for the quarter and YTD.

It is worth noting that in a city with rent control, this does NOT mean that market rents are rising. It may simply mean that the additional rent they get when a long-time tenant finally leaves makes up for any decline in market rents.

 
 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-10 11:02:59

“Tim, who does not want to be identified, said he would notice the difference. ‘But whose fault is it really, for buying overly-expensive property with low yields? I only have myself to blame.’”

Wow…Tim’s a genius compared to most of his peers.

Comment by junior_kai
2017-11-10 15:05:39

Sad reality that a comment like this is found as unusual - actually taking responsibility for one’s failure. Shows how far society has fallen.

We can thank our (((progressive))) betters for this.

 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-10 11:04:04

The end of the housing boom is likely to expose an unpleasant truth. We are a relatively low-income developed economy with a high cost of living. Housing inflation has helped disguise this truth in recent years.

True in a lot more places than just New Zealand.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-10 20:03:49

We are a relatively low-income developed economy

Developed? Who is NZ kidding? Their main exports are dairy, meat and agricultural products and raw materials. By comparison, 3rd World Brazil and Mexico are more developed, as they have industry. Heck, the Brazilians even make jet airliners (Embraer).

 
 
Comment by SFMF
2017-11-10 11:27:24

Describes California perfectly.

 
Comment by Anonymous
2017-11-10 14:36:34

So how do you all feel about the flattening yield curve? :D

Comment by scdave
2017-11-10 15:12:42

Past history says that points to coming recession. My fear is it’s pointing to something more serious.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2017-11-10 15:19:25

When it became inverted in 2006, I started to exit the market and was 100% out by the end of the year. That saved my bacon in 2007 & 2008.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-11-10 21:46:45

The current expansion is long in the teeth.

Further, my sense is that a change in the guard at the Fed often is a harbinger of financial crisis. A recent example was when Bernanke took over after Alan Greenspan stepped down, just before the onset of the Great Recession. Before that, the Black Monday crash occurred during Greenspan’s first year, 1987, and Paul Volcker took over just before the double dip recession of 1980-82. Yellen’s entance at peak QE appears to be a recent exception to the pattern.

Comment by azdude
2017-11-11 07:36:06

lather / rinse / repeat

somebody is gonna pay for all these easy gains over the past 8 years.

They need to sucker in more bagholders using FOMO techniques.

It works everytime. They have duping people down to a science.

 
 
 
Comment by junior_kai
2017-11-10 15:16:21

SF, Sydney, NY, Auckland - all these bubblicious cities have an abysmal quality of life unless you’re rich. Traffic is *mindnumbing*. Bums everywhere, the smell of pizz burns your olfactory nerves. Everything costs so much you need to sell an organ all the while the parks are filled with insane freaks shooting up on the benches or in the bathrooms.

In other words, the penultimate in culture to the u(dis?)topians -if only the rest of us were so enlightened. Fortunately the tribe is here to help - with plans drafted from Stalin and Mao.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-10 18:05:46

‘Some senior figures detained in last Saturday’s purge in Saudi Arabia were beaten and tortured so badly during their arrest or subsequent interrogations that they required hospital treatment, Middle East Eye can reveal.’

‘People inside the royal court also told MEE that the scale of the crackdown, which has brought new arrests each day, is much bigger than Saudi authorities have admitted, with more than 500 people detained and double that number questioned.’

‘Members of the royal family, government ministers and business tycoons were caught up in the sudden wave of arrests orchestrated by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, under the banner of an anti-corruption drive.’

‘Some, but not all, of the top figures arrested were singled out for the most brutal treatment, suffering wounds to the body sustained by classic torture methods. There are no wounds to their faces, so they will show no physical signs of their ordeal when they next appear in public. Some detainees were tortured to reveal details of their bank accounts.’

‘Sons of Sultan bin Abdulaziz have also been arrested and had their assets frozen. One of the most famous is Prince Bandar bin Sultan, a former Saudi ambassador to Washington and confidant of former US president George W Bush.’

‘One of those rounded up on Saturday was Bakr bin Laden, the head of Saudi Arabia’s biggest construction company. He had managed the biggest construction programmes for decades through a series of sub-contractors he paid directly.’

‘To prevent others from fleeing, MBS has ordered a freeze on private bank accounts. The number of account closures and those banned from travel is many times the number of people who have been arrested, sources in Riyadh told MEE. No one expected a crackdown of this scale and against princes of such seniority in the House of Saud, which is why so many of those detained were caught red-handed and had no time to flee.’

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-senior-figures-tortured-and-beaten-saudi-purge-1489501498

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-10 18:14:13

‘Sons of Sultan bin Abdulaziz have also been arrested and had their assets frozen. One of the most famous is Prince Bandar bin Sultan, a former Saudi ambassador to Washington and confidant of former US president George W Bush.’

They should be more careful about crossing the Bushes.

Although now that I think about that…I wonder if this is a side effect of the Trump presidency? No Bush or Clinton army is on the way to make sure the right people stay in charge in the Kingdom of Saud so lots of “unexpected” things could happen.

Comment by Anonymous
2017-11-10 18:45:06

Yes, when news of all this broke, I also thought about the cozy relationship between certain prominent Americans and the house of Saud.

 
 
Comment by junior_kai
2017-11-10 19:09:41

Rumor is the guys now locked up tried to kill MBS in vegas but the plot was foiled and the story of a mysterious fall guy (and deep state employee) was born.

Those same guys funded many of the pols in our country on both sides of the aisle and controlled big chunks of our media - essentially providing $$ for the deep state that has infected this country.

If thats the case, let the beatings, torture and bank account confiscations resume - MAGAAAAAA!

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-10 20:10:41

Dozens of Saudi princes, businessmen arrested in anti-corruption bid

Al Jazeera English

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFE1S9ygVgs

Two comments:

“im saudi i can explain, if this was a true anti-corruption bid, 99.9% of minsters would be arrested. but thats not the case, clearly. there is one thing in common among everyone arrested: they do not like the 30 yr old prince. so you can guess what the true motif of this is. however, its kind of good news…because the 30 yr old prince wants to modernize saudi and turn it into a new dubai, and a militaristic nation that builds its own weapons and missiles…and he has very very big plans for the Iranian goat molesters. so more power to the 30 yr old soon-to-be KING!!”

“It’s kinda shocking that rich guy got arrested That guy is huge. This goes to show that money is just paper, power is the real deal.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-11 05:59:52

‘Russia Scandal Befalls Two Brothers: John and Tony Podesta’

‘Neither Tony Podesta nor anyone at the Podesta Group has been publicly charged in the case. But Mr. Mueller has subpoenaed the firm and its employees for documents and testimony related to their work and interviewed roughly half a dozen people about Tony Podesta’s involvement. And as the Podesta Group has withered under the scrutiny, its employees were informed in a tearful meeting on Thursday that they may stop receiving paychecks after next week, according to people in attendance.’

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/10/us/politics/john-tony-podesta-mueller-russia-investigation.html

‘The rise and fall of the Podestas, Washington’s powerful political brother act’

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-podestas-washingtons-powerful-political-brother-act/2017/11/10/04bf1f6e-c4a6-11e7-afe9-4f60b5a6c4a0_story.html?utm_term=.ae98342efa09

NYT and WP throw them under the bus at the same time. Hmm.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Karen
2017-11-10 19:50:31

Prince Bandar bin Sultan

The Wikipedia entry on this guy is filled with interesting things https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandar_bin_Sultan_Al_Saud

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-11-11 08:01:31

Here’s an interesting snippet …

“Zacarias Moussaoui stated on oath and wrote to Judge George B. Daniels that Saudi royal family members, including Prince Bandar, donated to Al-Qaeda and helped finance the 11 September attacks.[69]“

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-11-10 18:27:24

Tustin, CA 92780 Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY

https://www.zillow.com/tustin-ca-92780/home-values/

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-11-10 21:33:57

Has anyone else besides me noticed that everyone accused in the many, many sex abuse scandals is man? I detect a vast anti-male conspiracy orchestrated by feminists and Democrats.

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-11-11 06:01:43

Professor as much i love research i didn’t know this……talk about an in your face double standard

Elihu Yale was a Slave Trader

http://digitalhistories.yctl.org/2014/11/01/elihu-yale-was-a-slave-trader/

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-11-11 10:46:07

I doubt many American colonists of means in the late 1600s had clean hands in the realm of slavery.

 
 
 
Comment by azdude
2017-11-11 07:28:18

blackstone slumlords:

http://www.invitationhomes.com/

 
Comment by azdude
2017-11-11 08:04:29

I see the talking heads on cnbc are still talking about all the cash on the sidelines that is gonna come in and boost the market.

I saw a video of jack boogle discussing that. He basically said it was BS.

Even if there is cash on the sidelines people buy from a seller who will then have cash on the sidelines after he sells the stock.

Big @ss scheme to pull u in. cheerleading 101

It seems like wall street peddlers have had a tough time convincing mom and pop investors, who got hosed in 2008, to come play again. They need bagholders before the market goes down.

 
Comment by azdude
2017-11-11 08:14:22

omg the DOw fell 100 points in a day last week.

Is it time to hose some more short sellers again? suck them in and then shake them out?

They must need some new cash coming in.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-11-11 10:47:52

Time to buy the dip.

 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-11-11 10:39:32

Oxide and other scientists who read here: Try not to relearn Sir Isaac Newton’s lesson on financial gravity in experience’s dear school for fools.

Intelligent Investor
Isaac Newton Learned About Financial Gravity the Hard Way
Amid the South Sea bubble, the famed scientist shifted from being a prudent investor to a speculator who plunged essentially all his capital into a single stock
By Jason Zweig
Nov 8, 2017 1:43 pm ET

Was one of the most immortal scientists in history also one of the world’s most mortal investors? In a recent column on the effort to predict stock-market behavior with principles from geophysics, I cited the losses — reputed to exceed $3.6 million in today’s money — that Sir Isaac Newton incurred speculating on London’s notorious South Sea Bubble.

 
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