If There Are No Takers, There’s No Turning Back
A report from Q 13 Fox on Washington. “We’ve heard about Chinese investors driving up local housing prices but it’s rare to hear from them firsthand on why Western Washington is so desirable. On Thursday, a delegation representing nearly 60 percent of Chinese investors interested in our region visited the Eastside. They toured three luxury homes ranging from $5 million to $10 million. Realtors say the Eastside is now more expensive because of Chinese buyers. ‘Personally, for the last two years 40 to 60 percent of my homes, listings, have sold to international buyers,’ Anna Riley of Windermere said.”
“Then why are an estimated 10 percent of luxury homes sitting vacant? ‘The process of getting residences in the U.S. is getting longer and longer,’ said Yi Liu, vice president of China Alliance of Real Estate Agencies.”
From Global News. “Seattle is ’still much more affordable than Vancouver,’ realtor Steve Saretsky told Global News on Sunday. When you combine that fact with the foreign buyers tax enacted in Metro Vancouver last year, along with the perception that there aren’t many great deals left to be had in the city, Seattle’s attraction becomes more and more clear. ‘The prices have been rising a lot there, and I think it’s encouraging more and more investment,’ Saretsky said.”
“B.C.’s foreign buyers tax is ‘working by driving a share of buyers to other cities, especially Seattle,’ said Byron Burley, the B.C.-based vice-president of Juwai.com, a real estate platform aimed at international buyers. ‘It has taken the froth off of the top.’ But in terms of demand from Chinese buyers, search volume data released by the site shows that it’s ‘flat as a pancake,’ he said. ‘It’s very important to remember, however, that Vancouver is more like a pancake than a deflating souffle.’”
From Domain News in Australia. “Despite 2017 marking a bull run of top-end sales in the $20 million-plus range, this year is the first time in five years in which there hasn’t been a single trophy sale to a foreign buyer, to date. And prestige agents say the dearth of foreigners at the top end is in large part thanks to the NSW government’s recently introduced tax slug on foreign buyers. It’s not just the lucrative commissions for prestige agents or windfall to trophy home owners that have been affected by the changes. Sydney’s cache as one of the world’s top emerging international trophy home markets could be collateral damage, according to David Chin, managing director of Australia and China research firm Basis Point.”
“‘Have they overcooked things for that end of the market? I think they have,’ said Chin. ‘Even the fabulously rich have their limits and Sydney isn’t the only glamour city on Earth.’”
“BIS Oxford Economics managing director Robert Mellor said that while he understands why the government introduced the extra charges, they probably did it ‘too late in the cycle when the market had peaked.’ ‘People might think foreign buyers will just keep coming anyway, but if the market is no longer performing and yields are low then foreign investors aren’t going to opt into this market,’ he said.”
From The Sun Daily on Malaysia. “The overhang in stratified properties or apartments and condominiums has worsened, with the number of unsold units rising 40% to 20,876 units in the first half of the year (H1 2017) from 14,792 units in H2 2016. On whether the market will be able to absorb the new supply of homes, National Property Information Centre director Khuzaimah Abdullah said the impact is yet to be seen. ‘I am sure the developers are very prudent people. If there are no takers, no buyers, I’m sure they would hold off construction because once you are into the construction stage, there’s no turning back,’ she said.”
From NDTV on India. “India’s property sector was already battling a slowdown last year, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s crackdown on cash quashed any hope of an imminent revival. The high number of unsold units though indicates that a recovery is still some time away. In the National Capital Region, which includes Delhi, inventory stands at around 200,000 units, which would take 62 months to be absorbed; while for financial capital Mumbai it’s at 180,000, or 52 months away from being cleared, according to a report from Anarock.”
“Ritika Mankar Mukherjee, a research analyst from Ambit Capital, is looking at the government’s efforts to force about 50 heavily indebted companies toward insolvency. If successful, these companies may sell some of their property assets to pay down debt. ‘We expect land prices to fall from February 2018,’ Mukherjee wrote in a Nov. 1 report. ‘As land prices fall, it is but natural that real estate developers launch cheaper properties through 2019 and 2020.’”
From The Negotiator on the UK. “Over a third of properties for sale in the UK have had their original asking prices cut since being listed, says the latest Rightmove house price index. At 37% of all existing homes for sale, this is the highest proportion dropping their prices during the autumn months for five years, the portal says. Price cutting following the Summer market high-point is a pre-Xmas tradition within the property market but the proportion of homes for sale being cut in price has been rising over the past three years and is now at a peak.”
“‘In the run-up to the festive season many sellers are trying to tempt distracted buyers to look at their property by dangling the bauble of more attractive pricing given the quieter time of year and more challenging market,’ says Miles Shipside. ‘Many sellers who have been on the market for a while are curbing their initial pricing optimism and are hoping that reducing their property price will result in buyers selecting it as this year’s must-have Christmas gift. The effect is an impromptu Autumn Sale with the largest proportion of sellers on the market having reduced their initial asking prices at this time of year since 2012.’”
From the Irish Independent. “The brother of ex-Westlife star, Shane Filan has revealed he wept the day the singer packed up his family home and left lreland after the pair were left with nothing when the housing bubble burst. Shafin Developments, the property company the brothers established together, went bust in 2012. The singer, faced with a bill of €23m, was declared bankrupt. His brother Finbarr has revealed he was declared bankrupt last Monday to the tune of €15 million.”
“In a column in the Sunday Business Post, the Sligo businessman said ‘guilt, fear and denial’ plagued him in the wake of his brother’s bankruptcy. He wrote: ‘When it came, the drop was bleak and life-changing. The worst day for me was spent packing up Shane’s family house and driving him to the plane in Knock. He was on his way to London that day to start the process of rebuilding his life after being declared bankrupt himself. The guilt I felt at the part I played in him losing his home almost overwhelmed me.’”
“Mr Filan told how he and his brother never saw the crash coming. They took out their first development loan in 2003 and soon the business partners and brothers were going ‘too fast too soon.’ He writes in the Sunday Business Post: ‘Hindsight is never there when you are in the middle of an impending calamity.’”
“He previously told the Irish Independent: ‘There were a few very difficult years where I was quite worried and scared. But you take yourself out of the bubble, and you realise it’s happening all over the world, especially in Ireland.’ Finbarr, meanwhile, is urging others to come to terms with their own financial troubles after he grappled with the ‘fear’ that follows going broke.’”
‘the Sligo businessman said ‘guilt, fear and denial’ plagued him in the wake of his brother’s bankruptcy. He wrote: ‘When it came, the drop was bleak and life-changing. The worst day for me was spent packing up Shane’s family house and driving him to the plane in Knock. He was on his way to London that day to start the process of rebuilding his life after being declared bankrupt himself. The guilt I felt at the part I played in him losing his home almost overwhelmed me.’
Now where’s that poster always going on about this fantastic investment? Go tell it to this crying little baby.
They should have followed the lead of another famous Irish band.
Demand America raise taxes on their middle class and give away billions to the third world and crush their economy with “climate change” ridiculous agreements…
Hide your own wealth in low tax countries (NOT IRELAND) and opaque shady real estate investments (NOT IN IRELAND)…
There is a lesson in there somewhere.
++++++
Finbarr, meanwhile, is urging others to come to terms with their own financial troubles after he grappled with the “fear” that follows going broke.”
‘Seattle’s attraction becomes more and more clear. ‘The prices have been rising a lot there, and I think it’s encouraging more and more investment’
Buying because “prices have been rising a lot”. That sounds like these savvy Chinese investors alright.
‘while he understands why the government introduced the extra charges, they probably did it ‘too late in the cycle when the market had peaked.’ ‘People might think foreign buyers will just keep coming anyway, but if the market is no longer performing and yields are low then foreign investors aren’t going to opt into this market’
IMO this guy is right. These controls came in after years of big blowout increases which had already lost steam. In Vancouver and Toronto most UHS have said prices were coming down prior to the various government actions. The only country that’s got it close to right was Singapore.
“Seattle is ’still much more affordable than Vancouver,’ realtor Steve Saretsky told Global News on Sunday.
Both city’s homes are ridiculously priced. It’s like saying, would you rather save money and kill yourself with a .22 rimfire or use a .357 mag?
But you don’t understand - the buyers aren’t buying primarily as an investment; it’s much more about expatriating their yuan into dollars and then buying land/houses in desirable areas. Even if the values eventually decrease by half, they will still keep these properties.
“would you rather save money and kill yourself with a .22 rimfire or use a .357 mag?”
Borrow a lifetime of earnings at 3% or borrow a lifetime of earnings at 3.5%. Either way it’s all dumb borrowed money. I can’t imagine having to continuously roll borrow to stay current on a massive mortgage but that’s how they’re doing it.
“Then why are an estimated 10 percent of luxury homes sitting vacant? ‘The process of getting residences in the U.S. is getting longer and longer,’
Who needs residency when you own a fantastic investment home in Western Washington?
“China Alliance of Real Estate Agencies”
Has anybody looked into this as a possible money-laundering outfit? Naaaahhhh…
It’s the same setup as the once-secret agreement that Nixon signed with the Saudis - we buy their oil, and then they in turn take those dollars and buy US Treasuries (and military equipment). Win-win!
” if the market is no longer performing and yields are low then foreign investors…”
Keeping in mind that the “market” referenced produces nothing at all, just sits there sucking up expenses. That it ever should be expected to perform and yield is pure mania.
Washington DC 20037 Rental Rates Crater 6% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/washington-dc-20037/home-values/
Ouch! Sorry, Oxide…
Unpossible!
As tax reform winds its way through the House and Senate with a year-end target, one question I have surrounds the possible MID cap at 500K and its effective date.
Let’s say the 500K MID cap deduction sticks and tax reform gets signed prior to year end. From what I’ve seen, any existing loan above that limit gets grandfathered and new loans would be subject to the new cap.
Does the effective date become the actual date it’s signed or the next tax year? If it is the actual date, what would they use for the date of the real estate transaction, the purchase agreement (contract) date or the closing date of escrow?
I look forward to democrats defending the uber rich 1%ers with “no justice….no $500,000 cap on the MID”
The 2018 mid-terms are going to have some fun political commercials.
“no justice….no $500,000 cap on the MID”
“I look forward to democrats defending the uber rich 1%ers with “no justice….no $500,000 cap on the MID””
Democrats at 10am: TAX THE RICH!!! KILL THE RICH!!!
10:01am: How dare you tax rich people in CA and NY by eliminating SALT and MID? You, good sir, are LITERALLY worse than Hitler.
If it does get passed I would guess it would be a closing by 12/31/2017 as the official date of the grandfathering and not just an agreement on paper. Better hurry up and buy that house! It’s a good time to buy!
This is not your grandfather’s grandfathering!
da bear
Real Estate: Don’t try this at home!
The bill in the House says you must have purchased prior to Nov 2 2017 to be grandfathered in. No idea what the Senate is saying. So you are already too late.
Just wait until prices readjust over the next 2-3 years and buy then when prices are 10% down or even more in places like California where used home sellers predict a 20% crash if everything passes!
“Oil Prices Fall As Rising US Shale Output Undermines OPEC’s Supply Cuts”
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/oil-prices-fall-as-rising-us-shale-output-undermines-opecs-supply-cuts-20171114-00151
cutting taxes when your already broke seems a little odd
You’ll never be a Master of the Universe.
It’s sad that this far into the echo bubble, all real estate people can come up with are the same old clichés about shortages, innate desirability, good schools, etc. Western Washington is popular with this group of foreign buyers because they want to speculate, or launder money. Our leaders enable it. That’s all.
It’s not all of western WA, though. It’s just tiny pockets where they’re really driving up prices, almost specific neighborhoods. Meanwhile, houses are rotting away on the MLS. If you pull up some of the areas on Zillow that HA and others link to, the market is COLD.
“It’s not all of western WA, though.”
Agreed. However, the commute in Washington state is also much worse than California for similar distances with fewer alternates when there is something serious happening.
Having lived here in WA for my entire life (except for a couple years in the Midwest for college), I’m going to have to disagree with you on that. Even in the rural areas where my great-grandparents homesteaded (100+ miles away from Portland and Seattle), housing prices are far higher than what the local wages can support.
I’m talking about the foreign buyers and the impact they’re having on prices. And I don’t need a tutorial, I was born in Seattle.
“Home Prices Are Continuing to Fall—by How Much?”
https://www.realtor.com/news/real-estate-news/home-prices-falling/
Are Realtors not lying? Unpossible.
Housing bubble dreams not realized + angry liberal (is there any other kind?) = violence against a Senator cutting his OWN grass
‘Socialist’ doctor ‘assaulted’ Kentucky Senator Rand Paul because the congressman’s trees were ‘in the way’ and were ‘devaluing his $740,000 home that he is desperately trying to sell’
Daily Mail | Nov 14, 2017 | BEN ASHFORD
The ’socialist’ doctor charged with cracking Senator Rand Paul’s ribs in a crunching blindside tackle may have harbored a secret grudge against his GOP neighbor for spoiling his lakeside views and ‘devaluing’ his home, DailyMail.com can reveal.
Rene Boucher, 59, told Paul in the wake of the mauling that he hadn’t been able to sell his $740,000 house for ten years because the congressman’s trees were ‘in the way’.
It’s believed Boucher was referring to woodland at the back of Paul’s property that blocks the doctor’s views of the picturesque private lake that forms the centerpiece of their upscale gated community.
Friends say it could explain why the retired anesthesiologist has failed to find a buyer for his five-bedroom, 1.36-acre home which is nonetheless described on property websites as ‘overlooking’ the desirable water feature.
Property records confirm, however, that Democrat-voting Boucher has indeed put his house on the market five times over the past decade without success, at one point becoming embroiled in a messy lawsuit when a prospective buyer pulled the plug at the last minute.
A look at boundary maps and overhead photographs also shows many of the ‘offending’ trees are on Paul’s land - although one realtor pal told DailyMail.com the Boucher property probably didn’t sell simply because it was overpriced.
Instead of a view of the lake, the ad should have said a view of a field where junior high school cheerleaders practice. Roy Moore would be there the next day with cash in hand.
Or run the ad in Hollywood.
He solved his own problem - Rand will own the house soon and he’ll have some nice digs at the nearest fed penitentiary!
Demoncrats, not the brightest bulbs. Crossing my fingers that pedo Biden will run for prez in 2020 - he’s the best they’ve got!
Google image search for ‘creepy Joe Biden’. Its unreal. He likes them young.
In a sane world, run by sane people you’d be correct. But we don’t. Jeff Sessions may be the figurehead of DoJ, but Obama’s people still run things.
The guy won’t do a day of jail time. Probably pay a $1000 fine and some BS suspended 30 day sentence, with a promise to never do it again.
And then he will run for office locally and most likely win, then become a regular on MSNBC.
He’s not just gonna give away Hidden Snowflake Ranch!
da bear
Elections have consequences. Not a chance Hillary would have even considered.
Based on limited data - a step in the right direction
++++
White House Considering Mohamed El-Erian For Fed Vice Chair
ZeroHedge - Nov 14, 2017
The White House is considering economist Mohamed El-Erian as one of several candidates to potentially serve as the Federal Reserve’s vice chairman, according to a person familiar with the matter.
For those unfamilair, here are some recent perspectives on El-Erian’s recent thoughts:
El-Erian likes Bitcoin/Blockchain
Fears a China Minsky Moment
Is aware of equity market disconnect from reality
Thinks The Fed Put is gone
Is not surprised by low inflation
And some recent notable quotables:
“The Fed’s embarked on this beautiful normalization: It has stopped [quantitative easing], it has raised rates, it has declared a path to reduce its balance sheet without disrupting markets and without derailing the global recovery. And I don’t think anybody will want to mess with this beautiful normalization”
“We don’t understand very well why inflation is low. And therefore, should inflation be an over-determining factor in monetary policy? On the other hand, how concerned is the Fed about elevated asset prices?”
“I suspect the market is too sanguine when it comes to how much central bankers are thinking about the risk of financial instability down the road.”
“We don’t understand very well why inflation is low.”
the beginning of wisdom.
Reminds me of:
The fear of the Lord is the beginning of wisdom..
– Proverbs 9:10 (NIV)
A healthy industrial-strength fear of debt is the beginning of wisdom.
… and an end to my free ride. However, this will never happen.
Ha!
…and the borrower is the slave of the lender.
– Proverbs 22:7
Wisdom!!!!!
Donkeys are frequently mentioned in the bible.
Old Chinese Proverb - He with most toys….wins.
Keep the proverbs coming 2B - nice to know that there are other believing folk on this and other sites. Hope abounds yet.
By the way - still looking for work here in the Denver area - not that I have been beating the bushes all that much as I try to sense where I am supposed to be as a result of recent events. AND it is all good - so HBB’ers please do not fret - today has trouble enough of its own.
Rj not in Chicago (thank God) anymore.
‘Hindsight is never there when you are in the middle of an impending calamity.’
-Finbarr
‘not in Chicago (thank God)’
Reminds me:
Life of Brian - Stoning (HD) Complete scene
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffwFXGPRDu4
Matthias: Look, I don’t think it ought to be blasphemy, just saying “Jehovah”.
[Everyone gasps]
Jewish Official: You’re only making it worse for yourself!
Matthias: Making it worse? How could it be worse? Jehovah! Jehovah! Jehovah!
Jewish Official: I’m warning you! If you say “Jehovah” once more…
[Gets hit with a rock]
Jewish Official: Right! Who threw that? Come on, who threw that?
Stoners: She did! She!
[Suddenly speaking as men]
Stoners: Him! Him. Him.
Jewish Official: Was it you?
Stoner: Yes.
Jewish Official: Right…
Stoner: Well you did say “Jehovah”.
[Crowd throws rocks at the stoner]
Jewish Official: Stop it! Stop! Stop, will you… stop that!
[Jumps angrily]
Jewish Official: Stop it! Now look: no one is to stone anyone until I blow this whistle, do you understand? Even - and I want to make this absolutely clear - even if they do say “Jehovah”.
[Crowd stones the Jewish Official to death]
Stoners: Gotcha!
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0079470/quotes
Proverbs 22:3 - “The shrewd one sees the danger and conceals himself, But the inexperienced keep right on going and suffer the consequences.”
1 Kings 13:27 - Then he spoke to his sons, saying, “Saddle the donkey for me.” And they saddled it.
I wonder if his sons were mortgage salesmen?
“You can lead a horse to water, but a pencil must be lead.” - Stan Laurel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnn-AVexPvQ
“You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t lead the other end of a horse anywhere.” — Me
What about a donkey?
It will be fun to watch Dems oppose a Muslim. Where do I get in line to scream racist at them?
The Fed is peddling fiction…
+++++
The Fed Issues A Subprime Warning As Household Debt Hits A New All Time High
ZeroHedge - Nov 14, 2017
… it would probably not come as a surprise that according to the just released latest quarterly household debt and credit report by the NY Fed, Americans’ debt rose to a new record high in the second quarter on the back of an increase in every form of debt: from mortgage, to auto, student and credit card debt. Aggregate household debt increased for the 13th consecutive quarter, rising by $116 billion (0.9%) to a new all time high. As of September 30, 2017, total household indebtedness was $12.96 trillion, an increase of $605 billion from a year ago and equivalent to 66% of US GDP, versus a high of around 87% in early 2009. After years of deleveraging in the wake of the 2007-09 recession, household debt has risen more than 16.2% since the trough hit in the spring of 2013.
Auto loan balances increased by $23 billion, continuing their 6-year trend. Auto loan delinquency rates increased slightly, with 4.0% of auto loan balances 90 or more days delinquent on September 30.
Outstanding student loan debt grew by $13 billion and stood at $1.36 trillion as of September 30, 2017. 11.2% of aggregate student loan debt was 90+ days delinquent or in default in Q3 2017, unchanged since the previous quarter
In a troubling development, and following on the warning issued last quarter, the New Your Fed explicitly warned that credit card and auto loan “flows into delinquency” increased. Specifically, credit card flows into delinquency have increased over the past year, while auto loan flows into delinquency have been steadily increasing for several years.
One continued concern: the sharp rise in delinquency for auto loans made to subprime borrowers by auto-finance companies, usually through auto makers or dealers.
Putting these numbers in context, while the impact from these growing delinquencies on the larger financial sector may be muted, the Fed cautions that there are over 23 million consumers who hold subprime auto loans. These consumers may find their credit reports further damaged after a default or encounter further financial difficulties after experiencing a car repossession.
And now we can add auto loans to the list of things the Fed is becoming increasingly worried about, as well as adding the universe of up to 23 million Americans who are facing an imminent default, and whose credit-funded purchasing power will soon be sharply curtailed.
The Junk-Bond Rout Snowballed After Wall Street Called Late Cycle …
https://www.bloomberg.com/…/junk-bond-rout-snowballed-after-wall-street-called-lat...
4 days ago - Mounting warnings from Wall Street about the aging business cycle in recent weeks are unanimous: downgrade high-yield bonds. The shift out of junk bonds by investors this week has been getting underway for weeks on the sell side in the form of allocation calls from Goldman Sachs …
Chinese Bond Rout Continues as 10-Year Yield Touches 4%
Wall Street Journal-5 hours ago
SHANGHAI—China’s 10-year government-bond yields touched 4% for the first time in years as a domestic bond-market selloff intensified, …
Junk-Bond Rally Unravels, One Bad Earnings Report at a Time
Bloomberg-Nov 9, 2017
Still, even if the sell-off doesn’t devolve into a rout, many investors are holding back and watching the action a little more closely. “In size and scale it’s not …
Wonder if it is part of the demographic cycle of aging Boomers selling junk bonds (and probably muni bonds, but I repeat myself). They sold their tech stocks in 2000, the rest of their blue chip stocks in 2008, the Harley in 2012, and reverse-mortgaged their homes last summer.
da bear
“Chinese Bond Rout Continues as 10-Year Yield Touches 4%
Wall Street Journal-5 hours ago
SHANGHAI—China’s 10-year government-bond yields touched 4% for the first time in years as a domestic bond-market selloff intensified, …”
Gulp…
“Household Debt Hits A New All Time High”
Truly, a nation of dumb sh1ts.
“… the New Your Fed explicitly warned that credit card and auto loan ‘flows into delinquency’ increased.”
A nation of ignorant debt slaves.
All brought to you by ……. wait for it……Mr. Banker!!!!
$152+ billion of student loan debt is 90+ days delinquent?
No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here.
LOL at millennials borrowing six figures to get a master’s degree in Obama Studies and can’t get a job to pay back their loanz. Loosers!
My 40ish sister was just talking publicly about how they don’t tell you that if you consolidate your loans (which most people do eventually, they start out as individual loans for each semester you went to school), the consolidated loans can no longer be deferred interest free if you go back to school. So now she finds herself in a situation where she finally knows what she wants to do with her life(?!?) and is ready to finish a degree, but a consolidated loan from her younger days that was allowed to grow nearly out of control means that she can’t afford to go to school and finish the degree because the old loan is now 1k/mo and must be serviced forever or it will get completely out of control.
The problem is not that “nobody told her” she wouldn’t be able to defer consolidated loans interest free. The problem is, she is completely irresponsible.
On the one hand, the local state university is technically public property, but on the other hand, parking is a pain, and you would probably get sued for sexual harrassment even if you DID find a spot.
da bear
It’s no surprise that auto loan debt is increasing. Even anecdotally, many of my co-workers are buying new cars. To be fair, their old cars were 10-11 years old.
A cheap pu truck is 35k
Seemed slow in the white van land of home depot
Mine is about to turn 15. Unfortunately, it spent most of its life in snow country, and the salt has done a number on it over time. I’m afraid I really do have to get a new car, and since the used cars are no bargain, I’m really going to buy a new one. With cash.
I’ve been car-less for a year now. I could afford to buy new car with cash, but I wanted to try this an experiment to see if it was feasible where I live (climate is good year-round–no snow). I purchased an eBike and it’s been working out well so far. It’s amazing how much more you can save when you’re not paying vehicle registration fees, insurance, gas, and auto payments. This wouldn’t work for everyone, but it works for me. My wife has a car though, so we do share for some things.
“It’s amazing how much more you can save when you’re not paying vehicle registration fees, insurance, gas, and auto payments.”
+1 The bare truth right here.
I may cost out going carless once the kids are gone from the nest.
Going from 2 cars to 1 cars is pretty easy. Going from 1 car to 0 cars is an entirely different ball of wax. But you do save an amazing amount of money.
Trying to convince the wife to do it. We have a Burley trailer that allows us to pull groceries, but we also have a 2-year-old, so there is some trepidation on her part. Also, it’s not like we live in an urban area with a subway. The bus system is adequate, but infrequent.
“Copper Prices Fall on Weak Chinese Data”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/metals-copper-prices-fall-on-weak-chinese-data-1510676188
It’s deja vu all over again!
Published on Sep 9, 2017
“ABC’s “The Business” reports on the slowdown in the growth of the Australian property market as Chinese investors pull out due to tighter regulations, and concerns of a housing decline.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=546OeFfXHxE
From the comments:
“Good, it couldn’t come soon enough!”
“Typical Chinese saying nah Chinese are invincible, it won’t slow down”
“australian properties are overpriced and is a con”
Australia housing has been imploding for months.
This guy has an interesting channel.
Australian Property Story - What Could go Wrong
Economy Times
Published on Sep 16, 2017
“As most Australians are watching reality TV shows and get mesmorised by sports and endless false political debate, the things that are brewing behind the scenes and that are really going to detrmine their (poor) future are completely out of their sights and minds.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DY2IrUzdP6o
He puts up Australian TV shows and makes comments on it. Pretty interesting stuff about Chinese settlement risk, etc.
60 Minutes Australia: Boom to bust, part one (2017)
“Published on Jul 16, 2017
It’s no secret that the big banks can be ruthless when they want their money back. But this story reveals a new low in their breathtaking arrogance. For more than 30 years Roy Lavis helped to build Cairns and turn it into the bustling tourist mecca it is today. His construction company also directly and indirectly employed several thousand locals. Roy’s business was so prosperous the Commonwealth Bank threw money at him and encouraged him to expand. In return he always paid them back on time, principal and interest. Everyone was a winner. Until suddenly the bank changed its mind.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NV8n1cxragU
Thirty years of business with zero missed payments… then the axe drops. Obviously something else was happening internally at the bank that wasn’t discussed in this 60 minutes vignette.
“Sellers Are Finally Blinking As NYC Real Estate Prices Fall”
https://www.bisnow.com/new-york/news/state-of-market/sellers-are-finally-blinking-as-nyc-real-estate-prices-fall-81040
“GreenOak Real Estate founder Sonny Kalsi has been a seller in the market for the past few years, and now he said his firm is looking to buy. But because of sellers’ high asking prices, he said he has been experiencing the stalemate that has hit the entire market, outside of places like the Bronx and parts of Queens.”
“It’s a classic standoff,” he said. “When you have transaction activity drop off like this, there’s a huge price discussion going on. Sellers are looking at historical comps, and buyers are looking forward saying it’s a different environment.”
“This year will be remembered for being slow, Kalsi said, but he, too, has seen activity pick up in the city. The transactions are not closing anytime soon — just one commercial sale over $10M was filed with the city last week — but he and Knakal are confident things will pick up. “I think you’ve got some blinking going on,” Kalsi said.”
“We want to be a buyer right now. It’s really just, do you get the price capitulation from sellers to sell? People who have to sell and do something, they’re starting to sell.”
“a house is a perpetual cash flow asset with an infinite lifespan if properly maintained.”
Atlantic Beach, FL Housing Prices Plunge 24% YOY On Billowing Housing Inventory
https://www.movoto.com/atlantic-beach-fl/market-trends/
“It’s very important to remember, however, that Vancouver is more like a pancake than a deflating souffle.’”
Shouldn’t Sean Snaith get credit for the souffle quote?
December 10, 2006
“Those Who Don’t Think They Are In Denial Are In Denial”
The Reporter from California. “Economic growth in the Vallejo-Fairfield metropolitan area will be among the strongest in the region, says a recently released study. ‘Part of the story,’ said professor of business economics Sean Snaith, ‘is housing and the larger trend of this demographic shift from the coastal areas of California, inland.’”
“Much of that migration was driven by the real estate boom in recent years, and though Snaith admits ‘that party is coming to an end,’ he said, ‘by no means is this going to be a bubble crashing.’”
“In fact, the business school likens the housing market not to a bubble, but a souffle. ‘A bubble is something that’s driven by speculation,’ Snaith explained. In terms of the housing market, he said, ’speculation wasn’t the key driver.’”
The LA Daily News. “It had to happen sometime. The median price of a San Fernando Valley house had to fall. Last month it finally did, by just less than 1 percent. And, just maybe, November brought us a glimpse of what the residential real estate landscape is going to look like for months to come.”
“‘We’re kind of right at the price point now that we’re going to have to get used to,’ said John Karevoll, an analyst at DataQuick. He’s neither a cheerleader nor a market basher. He simply interprets the numbers. ‘We’re way ahead of the game. It just depends on how much of the gains we made in the past four years we get to keep. Is it 95 percent, 90 percent or all of it?’”
The Orange County Register. “With the housing boom over, its dark side is coming to light, including fraud. Pam Houchen, the former mayor of Huntington Beach who helped dupe lenders and borrowers in a real estate scam, is a good example of a national phenomenon.”
“Mortgage fraud, ballooned as the housing market heated up, according to government data and industry experts. That’s bad news to the many mortgage companies based in Orange County, because they face losses when fraud involves inflated home prices.”
“Peter Norell, who leads a Santa Ana-based white-collar crime unit of the FBI, said fraud is being fueled by the volatile housing market, an increase in loans available to consumers and the widespread use of automated lending systems. ‘The market is riper than ever before’ for fraud, Norell said.”
“For a seven-county area that includes Orange County, 4,326 suspicious banking activity reports were filed in fiscal 2006, nearly double from 2005, according to the FBI. And the 2005 total was up 30 percent from the prior year.”
“Don Currie, founder of HighTechLending Inc. in Newport Beach, said loan volume is falling with the market, and people who work on commission are struggling to keep up their incomes. ‘A lot of people go to desperate measures to keep their production and lifestyles up,’ Currie said.”
“And more consumers stretch the truth when home prices or interest rates are high, Currie and others said. They exaggerate their income and assets to qualify for loans.”
“Sometimes customers lie when buying a second home; borrowers falsely say they will live there in order to qualify for better interest rates, he said. Currie said the second-home lie contributes to defaults and foreclosures, which hurt the market. In tough times, an owner will default on a second home before his own home, he said.”
“‘It’s probably one of the most rampant misrepresentations that you have,’ Currie said.”
The Contra Costa Times. “Christopher George, (founder of) a San Ramon-based mortgage firm, is on the front lines of the housing market in the Bay Area. The once-muscular realty sector has turned flabby lately. And some home owners are getting unpleasant surprises from their adjustable-rate mortgages as bigger payments kick in.”
“Q What’s your assessment of the housing market in the Bay Area? A ‘We are still in a flat and, in most cases, a declining market. There seems to be more inventory on the market. Most folks are still questioning whether they need to be aggressive in reducing their prices so they can sell their home.’”
“Q Are sellers still in denial? A ‘Those people who do not think they are in denial are still in denial. I think a lot of people have seen the market soften before and have seen it correct itself very quickly. They figure that in a couple of months the market will come back and surge again. But this is different. This is very different.’”
“Q How is it so different? The difference in the housing decline is far deeper this time than it has ever been. Interest rates have gone up. Folks have stopped making multiple offers. This time we see a lot of things that are problematic for the industry. Foreclosures are up, not just in Northern California, but also above the nation. In some cases foreclosure rates here have doubled, tripled, even quadrupled. But the big change is early payment defaults on mortgages.’”
“Q What is happening with these defaults? A ‘They involve people who have defaulted on their mortgage in the first six to 24 months of their mortgage. They can’t pay their mortgage because they did not state their income properly, or their payments have gone up because they had option ARM mortgages.’”
“Q How have all the foreclosures affected the Bay Area housing market? A ‘You have created a whole new reason to depress the market by flooding it with more inventory. This inventory largely is coming from lenders who have these homes that have defaulted. In some cases they aren’t even in foreclosure yet. There s a lot of pressure on home prices right now.’”
The North County Times. “A cooling housing market and recently higher inventories for new homes have caused many new home sellers throughout North County to offer incentives, such as lower prices and fancy vacations, to increase home sales.”
“Incentives aren’t going to matter much to the Silvius family. David Silvius said he knows that he won’t be able to afford a home in North County on his potential salary without significant struggles. David and his wife, Brianna, said they would rather pay $200,000 for a 3,400-square-foot home in Texas now than save for a 3,000-square-foot home worth $700,000 in Carlsbad, regardless of incentives.”
“‘We don’t want to struggle for 10 to 15 years to give our kids a yard,’ said Brianna Silvius.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1980
But the myth is prices fell in 2007 or 2008. I have thousands of these posts that prove otherwise.
‘Part of the story,’ said professor of business economics Sean Snaith, ‘is housing and the larger trend of this demographic shift from the coastal areas of California, inland.’”
“Much of that migration was driven by the real estate boom in recent years, and though Snaith admits ‘that party is coming to an end,’ he said, ‘by no means is this going to be a bubble crashing.’”
“In fact, the business school likens the housing market not to a bubble, but a souffle. ‘A bubble is something that’s driven by speculation,’ Snaith explained. In terms of the housing market, he said, ’speculation wasn’t the key driver.’”
Have some crow Sean.
All I can think of is: Casey Serin!
It always messes with me to read these 2005/2006 articles. I never check the date and just start reading and get excited that it’s finally happening. And then realize nope…it was happening then, and then we saved the banks instead, and it’s all a bad dream since.
“In a shocking development Saturday, the Saudi Arabian government arrested prominent billionaire Waleed bin Talal, a member of the royal Saudi family with deep ties to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Arrests were carried out by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s recently-formed anti-corruption committee and included bin Talal, ten senior princes, and dozens of ministers for corruption and money laundering charges.”
“Known as “The Warren Buffet of the Gulf”, bin Talal — one of the world’s richest people — is a notorious figure in American politics with deep ties to both Obama and Clinton. Americans privy to bin Talal and Saudi Arabia’s corrupt hand in American politics may recall a 2015 tweet from then-candidate Donald Trump that foreshadowed his arrest: ‘Dopey Prince @Alwaleed_Talal wants to control our U.S. politicians with daddy’s money. Can’t do it when I get elected. #Trump2016
8:53 PM - Dec 11, 2015′
“Investigations into Obama-Clinton impropriety by special counsel Robert Mueller encompass Obama and Clinton’s financial ties and dubious political alliances with both Saudi Arabia and Russia alike. Those following Trump’s efforts to police Obama and Clinton’s extensive criminality are aware Mueller’s probe implicates Clinton crony and lobbying giant Tony Podesta, brother of Clinton campaign manager John Podesta. Wikileaks releases of John Podesta’s emails opened a Pandora’s box of Democratic Party corruption when released last fall, but Tony Podesta’s nefarious and longtime lobbying efforts with both Russia and Saudi Arabia are only now beginning to be broadly exposed to the American public.”
“In August 2016, Medea Benjamin sounded the alarm as to the perils of Clinton and the Podestas’ crooked Saudi dealings: ‘If I told you that Democratic Party lobbyist Tony Podesta, whose brother John Podesta chairs Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, is a registered foreign agent on the Saudi government’s payroll, you’d probably think I was a Trump-thumping, conspiratorial nutcase. But it’s true.’”
“‘The lobby firm created by both Tony and John Podesta in 1988 receives $140,000 a month from the Saudi government, a government that beheads nonviolent dissidents, uses torture to extract forced confessions, doesn’t allow women to drive, and bombs schools, hospitals and residential neighborhoods in neighboring Yemen.’
“‘The Podesta Group’s March 2016 filing, required under the Foreign Agents Registration Act of 1938, shows that Tony Podesta himself oversees the Saudi account. At the same time, Tony Podesta is also a top campaign contributor and bundler for Hillary Clinton. So while one brother runs the campaign, the other brother funds it with earnings that come, in part, from the Saudis.’”
“Those familiar with the Citibank cabal that assigned Obama’s cabinet prior to his election would also recognize bin Talal’s name, for his and Citibank’s instrumental role the Obama administration’s decimation of the middle class. Pam Martens warned us back in 2012: ‘Citigroup was showing serious strains in 2007 but the meltdown came the week of November 17, 2008. On Monday, the firm called a Town Hall meeting with employees and announced the sacking of 52,000 workers. On Tuesday, November 18, Citigroup announced it had lost 53 per cent of an internal hedge fund’s money in a month’s time and that it was bringing $17 billion of off-balance sheet assets back onto its balance sheet. The next day brought the unwelcome tidings that a law firm was alleging that Citigroup peddled the MAT Five Fund as “safe” and “secure” then watched it lose 80 per cent of its value. On Thursday, Saudi Prince Walid bin Talal, a major shareholder, stepped forward to reassure the public that Citigroup was “undervalued” and he was buying more shares. The next day the stock dropped another 20 percent to close at $3.77. All told, Citigroup lost 60 per cent of its market value that week and 87 percent for the year to date.’”
“Now here is where you need to pay close attention. Just one month prior to the stock meltdown, the U.S. government through its Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) had injected $25 billion into Citigroup on October 28, 2008. With a market cap of $20.5 billion on Friday, November 21, 2008, the U.S. taxpayer effectively owned this company lock, stock and barrel.”
“‘The Treasury and the Fed knew exactly whose interests they were protecting. Just 11 months earlier, Citigroup had publicized a capital raising of $12.5 billion in convertible preferred stock in a private placement — meaning the full details were not released to the public. The press release said the investors included Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and Sandy Weill and the Weill Family Foundation.’”
The ObamaClinton crimes are endless.
‘a notorious figure in American politics with deep ties to both Obama and Clinton…Just one month prior to the stock meltdown, the U.S. government through its Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) had injected $25 billion into Citigroup on October 28, 2008….Just 11 months earlier, Citigroup had publicized a capital raising of $12.5 billion in convertible preferred stock in a private placement — meaning the full details were not released to the public. The press release said the investors included Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and Sandy Weill and the Weill Family Foundation.’
Dang, the timing is super convenient. What a lucky prince this was until he got put in the slammer. I wonder if some other people are headed there?
Will he sing?
Not a smidgen a corruption…
‘We expect land prices to fall from February 2018,’ Mukherjee wrote in a Nov. 1 report. ‘As land prices fall, it is but natural that real estate developers launch cheaper properties through 2019 and 2020.’
Sounds like a great recipe for Affordable Housing. Could it possibly work in the U.S.?
Dear Abby: Lesbian wonders why her live-in girlfriend needs pregnancy tests
By Jeanne Phillips Updated 9:50 am, Tuesday, November 14, 2017
http://www.sfgate.com/entertainment/article/Dear-Abby-Lesbian-wonders-why-her-live-in-12349034.php
Steven Colbert just knew Crooked Hillary had the election in the bag - LMAO!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_e2COURD03o
Trump Can’t Win, One Year Anniversary Gloatfest
“Published on Nov 7, 2017″
“Nearly one year ago today, the impossible happened, Donald Trump was elected to be the 45th president of the United States. Relive the gloatfest that encompassed that fateful night for all Trump supporters.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUEWcH-6×4g
It never gets old.
Never!
“You’re awake by the way.”
“You’re not having a terrible, terrible dream.”
“Also, you’re not dead and you haven’t gone to hell.”
I know that Rachel, I’m laughing my deplorable @ss off in SE Region IV
One year on: reporting Trump’s election night win
Published on Nov 7, 2017
The Guardian reporters Paul Lewis, Sabrina Siddiqui and Gary Younge recall their experiences of the real estate mogul’s unexpected victory – a moment of triumph for some and utter disbelief for others: ‘Everybody will remember where they were on the night Donald Trump was elected’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XltrzGDSc9o
From the comments:
“Are you kidding me? That’s what you produce for the one year anniversary of Trump’s win? You are so clueless as to why he actually won that it is just pathetic. You are still clueless after a year and still mired in your “deplorables” argument and identity politics. I voted Libertarian, but was very glad that Trump won over Hillary. I’m sooo glad that Hillary is not our President. Well, I was cheering when Trump won and was not at all like a comparison to the horror of 9/11. Equating 9/11 with Trump’s winning is disgusting. I’m half Hispanic and a woman, if that matters to your identity politics. Idiots!”
“Vaniecia Ferguson-lol… You guys dont realize that YOU the MEDIA were CONSTANTLY CALLING US RACIST, MYSOGONISTIC, Basket of DEPLORABLES, so when we knew we had a victory because we believed in our nation as a place that WE THE CITIZENS were so tired of the corrupt polititians broken promises, and we were fed up with the rigged system against us and we beat them on both sides of the aisle! The way we were treated by EVERYONE for months and months and months made that the sweetest victory ever! And when the tears and anger of being disappointed that we the people had more power than ALL the Establishment in both the Democratic and Republican parties, All the MSM televised, and newsprint, and all of the pollsters who were never calling us to answer any polls, we just put our grassroots heads together, we worked hard, we took responsibility and defeated 16 Opponents in the Primary, then defeated all the mighty machines against us in the general election, and our hard work, our persistence and determination to get the washington swamp drained BEGAN its journey that night! I will foever remember where I was when I got to see those same faces that constantly called us everything but the decent human beings, decent citizens that we are, cry, drop their heads in disgust, and become speechless…. that for me was worth all the months of persecution we had endured! Remember, it is not a ” Republican win”, this was a win for ALL American Citizens who washinton forgot about a long long time ago! this is about those who still dream of immigrating and becoming a citizen of the freest, best nation in the world! This is about making OUR GOVERNMENT do its job and WORK for the American people not against us!!!!
And you guys that did this story are still so one sided in your logic and thinking, that you now call us racist, because you understand nothing else but putting people in a diverse group, and causing the ” racism ” word to still stay a word in our society yes, some people may have prejudices against someone they know nothing about, but that isnt a left vs a right thing, that is a human fleshly thinking thing! Get to know us, talk to us, you might be surprised how intelligent, and sensible, and loving towards all citizens of the world we are. But you wont do it because then you cannot keep YOUR AGENDA at the forefront…. keeping us in chaos, and keep people in seperated groups hating others they do not know! this is how you make your living after all, because we all know, if we arent hateful and unkind towards each other, and hurting each other….. you have no story you have no job!”
The corrupt call honest people evil. It’s a story as old as humanity.
“Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for light and light for darkness, who put bitter for sweet and sweet for bitter.”
Isaiah 5:20
That’s the first time I saw Donald Trump had offered them 5 cents on the dollar for their $7 million canceled victory fireworks display.
Nope. You are are not “born that way”
It is a choice.
And, based on personal experience, most people choose to leave that lifestyle in their mod 20s when they want kids and a family.
It was fun…but time to grow up.
Dear Abby: Daughter stiffs mom on $80,000 college debt
By Jeanne Phillips Updated 1:05 pm, Thursday, June 11, 2015
Dear Abby: I am a single woman who borrowed $80,000 to send my daughter to college with the understanding that she would take over the payments once she was professionally established. She is now so “into” her new lifestyle that she is refusing to have contact with her “poor” birth mother. She refuses to take responsibility for repaying the loan, which is in my name, and says “tough luck” to my stupidity. This means I will have to continue working until I drop dead. Abby, I am 60. Is there any help for me? Has this happened to other Baby Boomers?
Poor Birth Mother in Georgia
Dear Poor: Sadly, yes it has. And no, there isn’t help for you. Because the agreement with your daughter was wasn’t put in writing, you don’t have a legal means to force her to assume the loan payments.
http://www.sfgate.com/entertainment/article/Dear-Abby-Daughter-stiffs-mom-on-80-000-college-6319675.php
You see stories like this ALL the time nowadays.
DID YOU SIGN OR COSIGN THE LOAN?
If yes - then you got to pay the money back. No matter what your children decide to do.
2banana’s rule on lending money to family:
There are no loans. I either give you the money with no expectations of getting it back or I do not give you the money.
This is a very wise approach. It’s my rule as well. It reduces a lot of friction.
Haha… where’s the usury?
There are no loans. I either give you the money with no expectations of getting it back or I do not give you the money.
Another option is I give you money, you promise to repay it, you don’t repay it, I never have to speak to or hear from you again. Might be worth the cost, then.
“There’s something weird going on that’s worrying the markets. Markets are showing signs of nervousness, which analysts say is not necessarily the dire warning some fear. There is concern that the bond market is sending warnings about the economy, as high yield debt sells off and the Treasury yield curve flattens. The yields of longer duration bonds are getting closer to the yields of shorter duration bonds, and some see that as a forewarning about a slower economy.”
”Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at Lindsey Group, said the market could also be anticipating tighter monetary policy next year when the Fed continues to pare back its bond buying and the European Central Bank also slows its purchases.”
“You’re talking about $165 billion of less liquidity, just in Q1 alone. This has not been an earnings driven market,” said Boockvar. “Every day we get closer to 2019, we get closer to that liquidity flow turning into more of a drip.”
“Boockvar and others say the markets are also getting antsy going into year end, worried that the high yield market is signaling broader concerns about credit. “In this kind of crazy market, as we head into 2018, anything is possible. If we do sell off, it’s going to get exaggerated,” he said.”
Seems like we may be approaching a time when it is good to have a little spare cash on the sidelines.
The QE unwind began on October 1st. It started off small but gets larger as time goes on.
New faces at the Fed. Some are hawks.
The Obama bailout train is stopped cold and is off the tracks.
MID getting cut to “only” mortgage payments below $500,000.
Thank God for DJT.
Senate’s GOP tax reform bill seeks repeal of Obamacare individual mandate
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/14/senate-leaders-say-they-will-consider-repeal-of-obamacare-mandate.html
If this is President Trumps only accomplishment in his second year, It’s acceptable to me….. and millions of others.
Does the prospect of a bond market selloff keep you awake at night?
A bond market crash is a growing worry for investors
Twenty-two percent of respondents to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s November Global Fund Manager Survey said their greatest worry is a sharp drop in bonds is the biggest “tail risk,” or worry for the market.
The findings come just as some key global bond yields have climbed to multi-year highs in the last few days.
“If you see further weakening in bond markets, particularly credit bond markets or corporate bond markets, it’s going to have a negative impact on stock markets,” Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofAML, told CNBC in a phone interview Tuesday.
Evelyn Cheng | @chengevelyn
Published 10 Hours Ago
Updated 10 Hours Ago CNBC.com
The rally in high yield bond prices have pushed yields lower, investors should pay close attention
One of the top three worries for investors right now is a crash in global bond markets.
When asked what poses the biggest “tail risk,” or worry for the financial market, 22 percent of global investors considered the biggest risk to be a sharp drop in bonds, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s November Global Fund Manager Survey out Tuesday.
That’s just below the 27 percent of respondents that fear mistake in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank the most.
Just 13 percent were most worried about a “market structure”-generated flash crash.
What do you consider the biggest “tail risk”?
…
More Pain Ahead for China Bonds After 10-Year Yield Breaches 4%
Bloomberg News
November 13, 2017, 8:15 PM PST
China’s sovereign bond selloff escalated Tuesday, with the 10-year yield topping 4 percent for the first time in three years. The breach is likely to sour sentiment further and lead to more losses, at least until the Chinese authorities step in, analysts said.
Here’s a breakdown of their comments:
David Qu, market economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Shanghai
- “The breaking of 4 percent will have significant negative impact on sentiment. There’s a chance that we will see an extensive and quick slump in bonds in the near term.”
- The selloff will spread to corporate bonds if sentiment worsens.
- Worse-than-expected monetary and real economic data didn’t help bonds, which shows the market is losing confidence.
- Investors should expect tougher financial regulations and tighter monetary policy next year, so bond yields will keep climbing.
…
Does it seem like many, many investors are playing with fire these days?
Invest like 1987 is about to happen again — because it is, warns hedge fund manager
Published: Nov 13, 2017 6:46 a.m. ET
Critical information for the U.S. trading day
Artisan Entertainment/Everett
Is it starting to feel like 1987?
By Shawn Langlois
Social-media editor
Every time the market bends but doesn’t break, bears pop up to remind everyone it’s just a matter of time before this thing finally falls apart. We saw it again on Friday, as multiweek winning streaks came to an end on major indexes — yet no real panic ensued.
But could this be the rare dip that doesn’t find a buyer? That’s the question investors are chewing on as we push into mid-November.
In our call of the day, Eric Peters, chief investment officer of One River Asset Management, says “people are no longer investing, they’re speculating” — duh — and he is convinced history is about to repeat itself.
That spells all sorts of trouble for those unprepared.
“We are investing as if 1987 will happen tomorrow, because it will,” Peters writes in a note to clients published on Zero Hedge. He’s referring, of course, to the year “Dirty Dancing” hit theaters, ”Walk Like an Egyptian” topped the charts and, oh yeah, stocks dropped 22% in a single day.
…
Are you sufficiently cautious about getting burned with an excess of risky investments in your portfolio?
Stock-market investors are careening ‘ever closer to the sun’
Published: Nov 14, 2017 4:57 p.m. ET
‘Icarus is flying ever closer to the sun,’ says BAML’s Hartnett
Getty Images
Investors are getting too close to the sun?
By Mark DeCambre
Is the stock market starting to exhibit signs of strain, after a mostly unceasing climb into the ionosphere?
That is the question at hand for many market participants as Wall Street awaits progress on tax-cut legislation, absent further drivers for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, -0.13%) the S&P 500 index (SPX, -0.23%) and the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP, -0.29%) to carve out fresh all-time highs.
Fears of an impending market downturn have dogged stock-market bulls for weeks because valuations for equity gauges, by some measures, are stretched, or at their highest level in recent memory, and popular measures of volatility, notably the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX, +7.08%) have been all-too quiet.
…
China gov’t bond yields at 3-year high amid market ‘misery’
November 14, 2017, 03:11:00 AM EDT By Reuters
Reuters
SHANGHAI, Nov 14 (Reuters) - China’s 10-year treasury bond yields hit their highest level in more than three years on Tuesday, as institutions sold off liquid securities to strengthen their cash positions amid worsening market sentiment.
Traders said yields on Chinese 10-year treasury bonds rose to 4 percent on Tuesday afternoon, their highest level since October 2014, and up nearly 37 basis points since the end of September.
“The only word that can describe today is miserable,” said a Shanghai-based trader at a regional bank.
“Market sentiment is very weak at the moment. Bad news means a big fall. Data below expectations like today’s numbers means a big fall. And if there’s no new information, it will still fall,” said the regional bank trader.
…
They’ve been playing with fire for so long that they don’t even notice the fire any more.