November 21, 2017

A Bubble Perspective

A report from the Press Democrat in California. “The rebuilding of fire-damaged structures in the North Coast would take over 6,000 construction workers three years to accomplish, an economist told business leaders in Santa Rosa. Attracting and housing so many workers will be hard, but the county’s economy won’t keep expanding without more homes, Christopher Thornberg said. Thornberg gave an overview of the national economy that was sharply critical of both President Donald Trump and the Republican-led proposals for tax reform. He then warned civic and business leaders that the county must provide more housing for workers. ‘You have to build now,’ said Thornberg. ‘Otherwise, the economy is simply going to stop growing.’”

“When the workers needed for a three-year rebuild are added in, the county’s total construction work force would far exceed the number employed here in more than 17 years, including at the height of a national housing bubble. Much of the U.S. is experiencing a shortage of workers, Thornberg said, which is why he strongly opposes efforts to take existing protections away from millennial-age children of illegal immigrants. ‘We need them,’ he said, prompting a burst of applause from the audience.”

From Think Pol in Canada. “The BC government has promised to tackle the housing affordability crisis in Metro Vancouver by ‘aggressively’ increasing supply. A new study coming out of Princeton suggests that the NDP government may want to reconsider that strategy. In Economic Consequences of Housing Speculation, researchers link increased supply to a more severe crash when the bubble bursts. Zhenyu Gao, Michael Sockin, Wei Xiong found that ‘housing speculation, anchored, in part, on extrapolation of past housing price changes, led not only to greater price increases and more housing construction during the boom in 2004 to 2006, but also to more severe economic downturns during the subsequent bust in 2007 to 2009.’”

“‘New housing supply stimulated by speculation during the boom period could have led to a supply overhang problem during the bust, which resulted in a contraction in construction-sector activity,’ the authors state. Supply overhang can both exacerbate the subsequent housing price bust and reduce demand for new housing, leading to a large decline in construction activity during the recession,’ they add.”

“The trio’s findings are in line with research done by the US National Bureau of Economic Research. ‘Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply-Side Speculation in the Housing Market’ identifies ‘mechanisms driving the house price boom by emphasizing speculation among developers on the supply-side of the market.’”

“‘Many of the largest price increases occurred in cities that were able to build new houses quickly,’ Authors Charles G. Nathanson and Eric Zwick conclude. ‘This fact poses a problem for theories that stress inelastic housing supply as the sole source of house price booms. But it sits well with our theory, which instead emphasizes speculation.’”

“Housing activists have long maintained that housing affordability in the lower mainland needs to be addressed on the demand side. The housing advocating group Housing Action for Local Taxpayers (HALT) lamented that the NDP government, especially Housing Minister Selina Robinson, is focusing all energies on increasing supply without taking any action to curtail speculation-driven demand. ‘Any demand side action, on speculation, tax reforms and addressing financial crime, in real estate will have to come from Ministry of Finance and office of Attorney General,’ HALT told ThinkPol.”

From News.com.au on Australia. “For years, we have been told that rising property prices are linked to one thing. But it turns out we have the whole thing wrong. Researchers from the Australian National University analysed 15 years of Census data and building approvals and found Australia had an oversupply of 164,000 dwellings. In particular inner city areas of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane had the most extra housing, although other areas were experiencing shortages.”

“‘The surplus is not particularly substantial, but certainly suggest that housing supply in and of itself is probably not the primary driver of house-price growth in Australia.’ Associate Professor Ben Phillips said. ‘There are other factors that are going on.’”

“If housing supply is not the issue, it has implications for how governments try to tackle the issue of affordability — and construction of extra dwellings may not be the fix it’s been touted to be. ‘The standard line of governments and industry seems to be that housing supply is a big problem in Australia,’ Professor Phillips said. ‘No doubt there are some areas where it is. But overall we don’t see the housing shortage that’s often talked about — in fact we see that there is a surplus.’”

“The results suggest quite a lot of properties must be vacant and could be owned by investors, particularly foreign investors. ‘We’ve found that we’ve built more than what population growth would require,’ Professor Phillips said.”

“As for bringing affordability down, Professor Phillips said he didn’t think anyone fully understood what was pushing house prices up. ‘I don’t think anyone fully understands what the drivers are,’ he said. ‘They don’t appear to be strongly correlated to housing supply. I think investment will continue to push up prices, taxation arrangements are an issue and low interest rates are also increasing prices.’”

“If rising house prices were due to factors other than supply, governments need to be looking at negative gearing and capital gains tax if they want to improve affordability. ‘Certainly Australians — and it’s a global phenomenon too — think of housing as much more of a financial product rather than as a shelter,’ Professor Phillips said. ‘This includes owner occupiers who see it as a store of wealth and this could be pushing up prices, rather than supply.’”

“At some point the value of housing would have to align with its fundamental value and Professor Phillips warned that continuing price increases beyond this was a ‘bubble perspective.’”

From Radio New Zealand. “In a paper published earlier this year called ‘The mess we’re in’ - a dive into the Auckland housing market from the construction industry’s point of view - AUT Professor John Tookey says one solution to the bubble and market pressures around the country is to get ahead of demand. Sounds simple. ‘What is politically difficult to accept is simple to state. Improving housing affordability equates to reducing housing values,’ Professor Tookey says.”

“By reducing values, he means your house. Not the 10,000 that officially need to be built every year to accommodate a rising population, a rising population that’s mostly Kiwis, New Zealanders returning from elsewhere, and some pesky foreigners. (Disclaimer: the writer is a migrant and GFC economic refugee.) One of the reasons for the mess is that for years policy-makers passed legislation incentivising property ownership, and ordinary Kiwis with their money locked in the one asset everyone agreed on - property - have been busily selling properties to one another, buying to let, and driving up prices and rents.”

“Restrictions on lending have been introduced and more changes are on their way under the new government. But central government and policymakers don’t have a complete picture of who owns all the property. Only a rough picture exists. We know who owns the majority - New Zealanders - but once you factor in apartments, buy to rent, family trusts, second homes, baches, businesses, overseas owners and absentee landlords, it gets, well, messy.”

“In a BNZ analysis, economist Tony Alexander says the big trend in the last year was the flattening Auckland market, less FOMO (fear of missing out) and a slowdown (although he says prices will go up) for the next five years. The rest of the country will follow in fits and starts in the next year, the report says. Alexander also says anecdotal feedback is that some real estate agents are now standing forlornly in empty houses at weekends waiting for someone to show up, and there’s worse to come.”

“On the flipside, property listings are up on Trade Me, which demonstrates how hard it is to get a clear picture. ‘The hype has gone from the housing market in Auckland and the same will occur around the rest of the country. New equilibriums will be established. Before then, look for some panicked selling from a few unsophisticated investors now feeling FOMO in the other direction,’ Alexander says.”

“Next on the horizon is the government’s proposal to ban foreigners from buying houses in New Zealand - which made headlines around the world. Removing foreign buyers here takes out only a small proportion of overall property transactions - how big a share is anyone’s guess. What’s more, owners, landlords and businesses like to leverage their equity from being a property owner to buy more residential properties. This, as population demographics reach a turning point, leads to a scarcity of supply (or a perceived scarcity of supply) and, in turn, makes more people want to buy. They’re also told it’s a good investment, hence all those property management companies, adverts, and billboards promising property-owning paradise.”




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80 Comments »

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-11-21 07:55:35

Winthrop, WA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY On Plunging Housing Demand

https://www.movoto.com/winthrop-wa/market-trends/

 
Comment by azdude
2017-11-21 08:11:24

who are the losers from money printing to prop up asset prices?

Comment by taxpayer
2017-11-21 10:01:19

future inhabitants

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-21 08:11:58

‘As for bringing affordability down, Professor Phillips said he didn’t think anyone fully understood what was pushing house prices up. ‘I don’t think anyone fully understands what the drivers are,’ he said.’

This is nonsense.

‘Property investors appear to be feeling the pinch from tougher lending rules and higher interest rates with a surprise slump in loans in September. Seasonally adjusted housing lending figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show investor loans tumbled 6.2 per cent over the month.’

‘The fall follows a tightening of regulatory screws earlier in the year limiting the banks ability to lend to investors and driving up the cost of new interest-only loans. Owner-occupier loans also declined (2.1 per cent), while the overall value of mortgages was down 3.6 per cent to $35.5 billion.’

‘J.P. Morgan economist Henry St John said the figures showed mortgage lending was gloomy in September. The fall in investor lending was the sharpest in two years, taking the annual growth in the sector to 6 per cent, having grown closer to 30 per cent at the start of the year. ‘The bearish trend in investor lending since April is well-established now,’ Mr St John said.’

From the comments:

‘The headline only is one part of the “perfect storm” about to hit the Australian real estate market the influencers are many to wit. 1) Xi Jinping , Most probably the most ethical leader the world has now (can anyone dispute that fact?) hunting the corrupt naked officials many of whom have found sanctuary in our exceedingly corrupt country, He stated last year that those who wish to export their allowance of $50,000 US would along with the bankers who facilitate the transaction will be investigated for corrupt activities.’

‘2) The house of cards promoted by so called “wealth builders” via SMSF to the greedy “look in the mirror” and google the words of JOE KENNEDY. 3) The heads of the banks who make Huge money for little work other than corrupt dealings, state there is no bubble as they pick up another multi million bonus cheque for screwing you the gullible.’

‘Now if you are unable to see the light drive around Sydney, Gosford and even Newcastle at night and see how many lights are on in the Piketty buildings. Now feel sorry the fools who will lose all and now research squatters rights.’

Another:

‘I saw a very disturbing ad, “show the bank you have a certificate level 3 or above” and you get “instant home loan”, Welcome to life as a debt slave. It is starting to look like investors are having trouble refinancing their loans at a profit. When the house prices stop going up, it all comes down.’

The average person out there understands a speculative bubble better than 99% of so-called experts.

Comment by azdude
2017-11-21 08:37:04

they wont let u win. They make money on the up and downside.

They will keep fleecing short sellers who don’t believe.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-21 08:46:33

‘Alexander also says anecdotal feedback is that some real estate agents are now standing forlornly in empty houses at weekends waiting for someone to show up, and there’s worse to come’

Comment by Sean
2017-11-21 13:22:40

The last few open houses I’ve visited have been vacant, except for me and the agent. Ever walked on a car lot and had a salesman say “Oh, someone’s coming to look at that car at (insert two hours from now)”, that’s the dumb sales trick they try to pull at the open houses.

“Oh, are you Steve with ReMax? Steve is bringing over his clients in (insert two hours from now) and he’ll probably put in an offer.”

Seriously lady, how dumb do you think I am?

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Comment by SFMF
2017-11-21 14:46:22

Open houses are a waste of time IMO. They’re just ways for a selling agent to get future clients from people looking. In all the houses I have bought over the years, not one of them was because of an open house.

 
 
Comment by junior_kai
2017-11-21 16:05:08

Standing Forlornly is going to be the name of my next band. We’re currently in the studio translating society’s madness into atmospheric soundscapes. The tentative title of the album is “Scenes from the crash”

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Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-21 16:16:52

That is actually a pretty cool name.

 
Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-11-21 18:51:31

standing forlornly

It is. I walked into an open house on impulse here in Las Vegas around 2007(?) The agent was the only one there; he looked pretty forlorn. We talked for about an hour. He said he had bought a house a year before and made a $50K down payment which he watched disappear in record time. He said that from here on in he would never put down more than the minimum and walk as soon as he started to see things go south.

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-21 15:58:14

show the bank you have a certificate level 3 or above

Translation, please?

Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-11-21 17:10:06

Education level. Below having a diploma from a secondary school I think.

Comment by Mike in Brisbane
2017-11-21 20:33:22

It’s actually a certificate that you receive from a community college known as TAFE. They are marketing to very young people in their early 20s.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-21 22:16:49

Thanks

 
 
 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2017-11-21 20:25:01

Ben Jones: The average person out there understands a speculative bubble better than 99% of so-called experts.

The prognosticators and pundits don’t have a quantitative measure of speculative demand. So they ignore it. They don’t have to be right to get paid. They have to sound good - plausible, convincing - to get paid.

I’m sure there are good ways to collect at least qualitative measures of speculative demand but perhaps that doesn’t further the mission, whatever it is.

FYI: Quantitative vs. qualitative.

 
Comment by rms
2017-11-21 20:26:44

Being young, in business and surviving your first recession is an experience that will last a lifetime.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-21 08:14:35

‘When the workers needed for a three-year rebuild are added in, the county’s total construction work force would far exceed the number employed here in more than 17 years, including at the height of a national housing bubble. Much of the U.S. is experiencing a shortage of workers, Thornberg said, which is why he strongly opposes efforts to take existing protections away from millennial-age children of illegal immigrants. ‘We need them,’ he said, prompting a burst of applause from the audience.’

Bring in more people to cure our housing shortage.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-11-21 08:24:40

“Much of the U.S. is experiencing a shortage of workers”

Yet joblessness is at record highs.

If lying were a crime Thornburger would have been executed 10 times over.

Comment by CHE
2017-11-21 13:09:42

Really growing to despise Thornberg. Last bubble he was the sane one, but this time round he looks to have been bought off.

 
Comment by alambka
2017-11-22 08:12:25

last time around he was the young guy, and he was only sane when standiing next to david lie ra the nar “economist. now he has a slightly different point of view, and equity to protect.

 
 
Comment by junior_kai
2017-11-21 13:09:23

Said it yesterday - they’ll use it as an excuse to import more dim voters and try and pin the tab on the fed treasury. They’re so transparent but they dont realize the noose is tightening as the crims get taken down one by one.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-21 14:18:54

“Much of the U.S. is experiencing a shortage of workers, Thornberg said…”

This is another lie. There are tens of millions of unemployed people who are essentially ignored by both “official government stats” and employers alike.

Comment by SFMF
2017-11-21 15:37:19

“Much of the U.S. is experiencing a shortage of workers, Thornberg said…”

The US is experiencing a shortage of workers willing to work for slave wages. But luckily there are 7B others on the planet who will work for $3/h

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-21 16:01:33

This is another lie.

Agreed. We had a big layoff 3 months ago at the office. Even though there is supposed to be a “shortage” of Software Engineers and the job market is said to be “hot”, half of my former coworkers are still unemployed. And most of those who did find a job had to settle for a short term contract gig.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-21 16:23:36

I remember reading a while back about how some Scandinavian countries tied immigration rates to the relative health of public services. There are pros and cons to immigration, and it has to be managed smartly.

Here’s an idea: link immigration rate to housing affordability. The more unaffordable housing is, the less immigration there should be. The more affordable it is, the more can come in (legally). This type of flexing would be a smarter way to ensure more cohesive growth.

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Comment by SFMF
2017-11-21 17:54:04

Contract gigs aren’t a bad thing. I know a lot of people who do nothing but contracts. The pay is much better than a full time job. It’s the wave of the future, better get ready.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-21 22:27:37

The pay is much better than a full time job.

Not from what I’ve seen. My coworkers got $60/hr gigs, but no bennies: no insurance, no paid time off, no nothing. My salary is already at that level. Add in insurance (our insurance is very good), paid time off (in my case 30+ days), 401K match, etc. and my hourly rate is close to $80/hr.

I have had headhunters contact me for measly 6 month gigs that pay $50/hr, for embedded C++ gigs.

 
Comment by oxide
2017-11-22 05:23:46

It’s the wave of the future, better get ready.

It’s the wave of the past. It used to be known as “piecework” and it was considered a low job for the poor who needed extra cash.

Gig economy work is soft money and it’s dicey. You’d better learn to live at 1/2 that cushy gig salary, because eventually you may only work half the time.

 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2017-11-21 17:24:29

“Much of the U.S. is experiencing a shortage of workers, Thornberg said, which is why he strongly opposes efforts to take existing protections away from millennial-age children of illegal immigrants. “

Aren’t these the same yahoos who are advocating for a universal basic income to help the poor?

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2017-11-21 08:53:39

When even the Chicago Tribune calls for this….

*******

Bill and Hillary Clinton should be investigated
Chicago Tribune | 11/20/2017 | Marc A. Thiessen

Ever since Watergate, the mantra of all major corruption investigations has been to “follow the money.”

The New York Times reported in 2015 that “shortly after the Russians announced their intention to acquire a majority stake in Uranium One, [former President Bill] Clinton received $500,000 for a Moscow speech from a Russian investment bank with links to the Kremlin that was promoting Uranium One stock.” In total, $145 million went to the Clinton Foundation from interests linked to Uranium One, which was acquired by the Russian government nuclear agency Rosatum.

Think that was just a coincidence? As former federal prosecutor Andy McCarthy points out, the Uranium One deal is not a national security scandal, it is a corruption scandal involving “Clinton family self-dealing.” Ask yourself: How many half-a-million-dollar speeches has Bill Clinton given to Kremlin-linked banks since Hillary Clinton was defeated? How much Russian money is flowing into the Clinton Foundation’s coffers today? If Donald Trump had given a $500,000 speech paid for by a Kremlin bank, and his private foundation had accepted $145 million from Vladimir Putin-linked oligarchs and their Western business partners, do you think that his critics would be insisting there was nothing to see here?

Comment by cat shannon
2017-11-21 12:26:47

where is Dave to shed some of his insight?

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-21 14:21:56

After his hysterics yesterday probably hanging his head in shame, if he has any…

Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-11-21 17:16:31

He’s fragile. A rage can set him back for a week or so. Every one of us who are not so fragile should thank our good fortune.

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Comment by scdave
2017-11-21 17:36:39

Fragile ? LOL. If you only knew. Your the one that has the fragile ego needing to talk about your desire of conquest of younger women. Well, what ever “floats your boat” I guess. LOL.

 
Comment by redmondjp
2017-11-21 21:00:00

Projection never works, Dave. Give it up.

 
 
 
 
Comment by SFMF
2017-11-21 14:49:29

Same as how all of a sudden leftists are saying well you know, maybe Bill Clinton should have stepped down after he was caught doing a 20 year old intern in the oval office. Gee thanks, only 25 years too late. Same people that defended him (and her) to the death when it mattered. Now that both their political careers and influence are over all of a sudden it’s yeah man let’s investigate. There’s nothing to lose with these grifters going to jail. So much courage!! Spare me.

And nothing will happen to them. Jeff Sessions has been asleep every since he got to DOJ.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-21 16:01:45

Same as how all of a sudden leftists are saying well you know, maybe Bill Clinton should have stepped down after he was caught doing a 20 year old intern in the oval office. Gee thanks, only 25 years too late.

Yup. Back then you were a deplorable for thinking he should step down and let Al Gore do his thing.

Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-11-21 17:13:34

They told us his morals weren’t important, it was how he was doing his job that mattered.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-21 22:30:29

I definitely remember that. I remember one such comment, from a former coworker during the Clinton administration: “He’s not a good man, but he’s a good president.”

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2017-11-21 17:15:28

On comment boards, I’ve seen lib defend Bill Clinton “But that was 20 years ago…” By the way, that is how “moveon dot org” got its name. they wanted to move on from the Clinton scandal. Of course if you put a 20-year statue of limitations on the court of public opinion, that would eliminate quite a few of the allegations flying around today.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-21 17:20:16

The latest four accusers (in their teens at the time, BTW) say it was in the early 2000’s.

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Comment by SFMF
2017-11-21 17:56:16

So what happened 20 years ago in the white house…meh. Not relevant.

But what happened 40 years ago in Alabama (of which there is no proof)….totally important and relevant.

Liberalism in a nutshell.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-21 22:33:04

From what I am hearing, Alabamans might elect him anyway. The reasoning I heard was that “Alabamans are tired of Yankees sh!tting on them”

 
Comment by oxide
2017-11-22 05:34:29

The new allegations against politicians and media giants will only help Moore. Voters will simply shrug and say “everybody does it.”

Morality will simply take a back seat to policy, unless the evidence is stronger than old allegations. In fact this already started happening in 2016. The liberals are still moaning over how conservatives could vote for a petty p-grabber. Easy answer, Trump voters wanted jobs in and illegals out, and if it takes a petty p-grabber to do that, so be it (oh, and Hillary inspired Obama voters to stay home). Libs still don’t get it.

 
Comment by tresho
2017-11-22 15:54:08

Democrat candidate Grover Cleveland won the presidency despite admission of an illegitimate son by a one night stand with a woman reputed to be a prostitute. His opponent was considered even more corrupt than that. The chant of “Ma, ma, where’s my Pa?” was answered by Democrats: “Gone to the White House, ha ha ha!”

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-11-21 09:00:07

Realtors are liars.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-11-21 13:45:10

….. and every closing a crime scene.

 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-11-21 09:42:02
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-21 09:54:13

Reggie Middleton REALity TV #1: Benjamin Bernanke LIED To The World About QE3/Unemployment

Published on Sep 16, 2012

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvMlDtDDgps

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-21 17:00:05

Until the American people stand up and say enough, look for “no banker left behind” policies to continue.

I was hopeful when Occupy Wall St. came on the scene, but it quickly turned to disappointment when shooting up junk, drum circles and taking dumps in public became the norm. That’s just not going to cut it.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-11-21 21:03:16

Hmmm, the homeless in Seattle do those exact same things!

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-11-22 07:02:26

DebtDonkey

Miami Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY On Skyrocketing Housing Inventory

https://www.movoto.com/miami-beach-fl/market-trends/

 
 
Comment by butters
2017-11-21 10:00:34

After 48 year career of boredom and dullness, United States reporter Charlie Rose finally breaks interesting news story.

https://twitter.com/DPRK_News/status/932773402380824577

Comment by cat shannon
2017-11-21 12:28:44

Maybe there is no one around to grope?

 
 
Comment by butters
2017-11-21 10:05:04

“Thanksgiving” is United States holiday on which working people gather to eat celebratory meal, whilst being berated by unruly and foolish children. In DPRK, such children are beaten with canes.

@DPRK_News

Comment by Obama Goons
2017-11-21 12:08:44

A US socialists dream date.

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-11-21 12:29:29

Here a Princeton “gender studies” graduate (LOLZ) profiles 4chan’s politically incorrect and The_Donald subreddit as hate groups:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?437612-3/washington-journal-caroline-kitchener-discusses-political-extremism-internet&live&vod

Comment by oxide
2017-11-21 17:33:30

In the video, she says she studied two platforms: reddit and 4chan. TWO platforms? She should have studied at least 15 before shooting off her mouth. And this is Princeton.

By the way, she reminds me of my liberal arts dormmates. They drank and caroused for weeks on end, until midterms. Then they got mad at me because I didn’t seem to be overloaded with work during midterm week. I answered that STEM majors had been doing homework and writing lab reports and taking interim quizzes and exams every week, so midterm was a normal workload for us. Which just made them madder.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-21 22:34:59

Welcome to Marketing: Two Drink Minumum

 
 
 
Comment by azdude
2017-11-21 16:05:23

nice short covering rally today. use and abuse them.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-21 16:15:51

‘Certainly Australians — and it’s a global phenomenon too — think of housing as much more of a financial product rather than as a shelter,’ Professor Phillips said. ‘This includes owner occupiers who see it as a store of wealth and this could be pushing up prices, rather than supply.’

I have to say, this is the best slew of articles that Ben has posted in some time, in my opinion. There some really keen insights here that make a lot of sense to me. One major factor contributing to the housing bubble is that housing is seen as money, or a store of wealth. My brother is working for a angel investor on a startup and this guy takes in something like $15k a week from his enterprises. A lot of this money just goes in and out to fund his condos and the houses of his children. That housing has rebounded so quickly only reinforces the notion that it is a good store of wealth, which creates a virtuous cycle for the asset class, drawing people to it for fear of missing out, and hoping to build their nest egg.

Would it be too much to ask to have a rational housing policy? Some commonsense regulations to prevent this kind of speculation?

Comment by Karen
2017-11-21 17:04:47

There shouldn’t be any “housing policy”. Why do we need the government involved in housing?

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-21 17:12:23

If our housing policy were to extricate the government completely from housing, that would be good enough for me. Realistically, this isn’t going to happen. So baby steps towards a smaller footprint are a good start. We could start with 20% down payment requirement, payments need to be less than 30% of mortgage, reform tax law to reduce deductability of MID, etc.

 
 
 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-21 17:02:01

“If rising house prices were due to factors other than supply, governments need to be looking at negative gearing and capital gains tax if they want to improve affordability. ”

Maybe an accountant can speak to this, but I have never heard of negative gearing before and had to look it up. It looks like it is a phenomenon common to some of the commonwealth states:

According to Australian tax law, you may be able to claim the interest portion of your loan repayments and also some other costs as an expense, providing that the property is available to be rented.

The key benefit associated with negative gearing is that the loss associated with the property ownership may be offset against other income earned, such as your salary, reducing your taxable income and therefore your tax payable.

The result is that the cost of owning the property is being funded by your tenant in the form of rent, by the Australian Tax Office in the form of tax savings, and by your other surplus cash flow, such as your savings and other forms of income.

https://www.commbank.com.au/guidance/property/negative-gearing-and-tax-201605.html

It seems as if Australian tax law is more favorable to buy-to-lease landlords than US law with regards to losses offsetting more than passive income, but ordinary income as well.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-21 17:03:27

‘What is politically difficult to accept is simple to state. Improving housing affordability equates to reducing housing values,’ Professor Tookey says.”

Enough said.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-21 17:06:43

Bloomberg
Mobile Homes Are So Expensive Now, Hurricane Victims Can’t Afford Them
Prashant Gopal
November 21, 2017

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-11-21/mobile-homes-are-so-expensive-now-hurricane-victims-can-t-afford-them

“The industry, led by Warren Buffett’s Clayton Homes Inc., is peddling such pricey interior-designer touches as breakfast bars and his-and-her bathroom sinks. These extras, plus manufacturers’ increased costs for labor and materials, have pushed average prices for new double-wides up more than 20 percent in five years, putting them out of reach for many of the newly homeless. ”

“Terms such as “mobile home” or “trailer” are now verboten in an industry striving to break free of its downscale origins. Buffett’s Clayton Homes, which produces almost half of all new manufactured housing in the U.S. and competes with such companies as Cavco Industries Inc. and Champion Home Builders Inc., still builds lower-priced units, but there’s barely a sign of them on its website, which is mostly devoted to high-price models. The 2,000-square-foot Bordeaux features a separate tub and shower, a computer station, and a mud room, with prices starting at $121,000 and ranging as high as $238,000, not including delivery and installation costs. Clayton declined to comment. “

Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-21 17:38:22

So now even double wides are utterly unaffordable? $200K for a double wide?

Comment by Mike
2017-11-21 17:59:04

It defies belief. We are in an alternate bizarro world that will only be recognized (by the media at least) in retrospect

 
Comment by jeff
2017-11-21 19:54:58

“Phil Lee, the 74-year-old founder of LeeCorp, has been riding a wave of retiring baby boomers who want affordable luxury.”

When da Cat 4 hits the Park “affordable luxury” = Flying quartz countertops

 
 
Comment by SFMF
2017-11-21 18:02:13

At 2000 sq ft these aren’t mobile homes in the traditional sense of what we know a mobile home to be.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-21 22:38:21

Perhaps, but they are still mass produced on an assembly line, how can they cost $100 square foot, without the lot?

Comment by azdude
2017-11-22 07:26:46

healthcare and retirement costs?

Why overpay?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by SFMF
2017-11-21 18:00:39

Govt in Vancouver getting involved in the housing market…..what could go wrong?

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-11-21 18:09:54

Plano, TX Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/plano-tx/market-trends/

 
Comment by Apartment 401
Comment by Sean
2017-11-22 06:26:02

Reading the comments section, it always amazes me how many boomers just HATE their kids and younger folks, and they all have a magic solution to getting their lives together. In reality most boomers I know are lazy as hell and would be sunk in this economy if they were younger.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2017-11-21 21:56:57

So, who else besides John Conyers was paying hush money to victims of sexual shenanigans? 244 incidents (or something like that). Payouts totaling the millions of $$. Taxpayer funds, btw. Rumor has it Joe Biden is on that list.

#UnsealtheDeals!

If you’ve ever thought of running for Congress, now’s the time because it looks like there may be a number of unexpected vacancies.

Special thanks to Mike Cernovich, who broke the story via Buzzfeed. Go, Mikey!

Wheeee! This is fun!

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-11-22 05:51:57

Denver, CO 80202 Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY

https://www.zillow.com/denver-co-80202/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu under first chart

 
Comment by azdude
2017-11-22 06:29:37

BTFATH !

 
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