Is This Just Seasonal, Or Is This Something Else?
A report from the Daily Journal in California. “Cold weather brings a cooling effect to a local rental market which real estate experts believe will remain considerably less expensive than the astronomical rates reached in recent years. Rent for a one-bedroom unit in San Mateo last month floated near $2,500, according to Zumper, down from the yearly peak of nearly $2,600 in June. Last year, prices for similar units were reported as expensive as $3,100. There seems to be consensus on a general market softening. ‘It appears San Mateo County has reached its peak and the county is in a downward trend. In the past two years, rent growth has slowed down and vacancies have increased,’ Rhovy Lyn Antonio, the apartment association’s vice president of public affairs, said.”
“Michael Pierce, a local landlord for more than 30 years, said his stock of older units exposes him to a much less expensive rental market as well. ‘It’s really different,’ he said. ‘It’s not that pie-in-the-sky number that those new buildings are getting.’”
“But even with less expensive offerings than some of the new developments sprouting along the Peninsula, Pierce said he too is witnessing a slowing market, resulting in lingering vacancies and occasional discounts for tenants. Another factor driving the cost drop is the crush of recent residential development becoming available, increasing supply to meet the outsize demand. ‘We are starting to see the benefits from new supply,’ said Pierce, pointing to ongoing construction of developments in Redwood City, San Mateo and Foster City. ‘It’s causing the market to soften a bit because we have a lot of product.’”
From the Virginia Gazette. “The Greater Williamsburg Area has plenty of options to offer home buyers as the fall comes to an end. ‘In the last three months, we’ve seen inventories increase, which indicates the market is evening out. This means the rates of new houses going on the market is outpacing closed sales. It’s a good trend,’ said Kimber Smith, president of the Williamsburg Area Association of Realtors.”
“The median sale price for single-family detached homes was up 5.8 percent to $350,200 and was down 8.1 percent to $229,400 for single-family attached properties since last October, according to the Williamsburg Area Association of Realtors.”
From Crain’s Chicago Business in Illinois. “If you’re looking for a deal on a downtown apartment right now, you shouldn’t have too much trouble finding one. Many landlords are offering prospective tenants two months’ free rent, gift cards and other goodies as they try to fill up their buildings in an overbuilt downtown market. After enduring years of rent hikes, renters are gaining leverage over landlords as the supply of apartments outstrips demand.”
“‘This is the time of year when landlords and property managers get desperate,’ says Maurice Ortiz, director of operations at the Apartment People, a Chicago brokerage. Now ‘it’s an all-out dogfight because there are so many new developments that are competing with each other, as well as the established buildings.’”
“The once-hot market is getting chillier amid an unprecedented development boom. Developers will complete a record 4,500 downtown apartments this year, 3,500 in 2018 and as many as 5,000 in 2019, Integra predicts. While demand for apartments is as strong as it’s ever been, it’s not keeping up with supply. Absorption, the change in the number of occupied units, will total about 2,900 units this year—also a record—and 3,000 in both 2018 and 2019, according to Integra. Put another way, downtown supply growth—13,000 new apartments over three years—will exceed demand by 4,100 units, or 46 percent.”
“The supply surge is making some developers and landlords nervous. That’s one reason they’re offering bigger concessions than they have in the slow leasing months of prior years. ‘The difference now is there’s more fear of the unknown. We’re getting aggressive because you don’t know,’ says Jim Letchinger, president of Chicago-based JDL Development, which opened a 250-unit tower at 640 N. Wells St. over the summer. ‘Is this just seasonal, or is this something else?’”
From Westfair Online on New York. “Housing inventory in Westchester County has reached its lowest level in 13 years, according to a recent report from Douglas Elliman, and while that record-low supply has led to frequent bidding wars in the low- to midlevel markets, the same cannot be said for luxury homes. Real estate professionals agree that a wealth of high-end properties remain for sale. ‘When you start going $1.5 (million) and north, there’s a heck of a lot of stuff on the market and practically nothing selling,’ said Mark Seiden, broker and owner of Mark Seiden Real Estate Team in Briarcliff Manor.”
“Price isn’t the only reason many luxury properties aren’t changing hands. ‘There are plenty of people in the market who I think are overpriced, but we also have plenty of stuff that I think is priced fairly reasonably,’ Seiden said. ‘It’s just that the stuff that’s selling is selling for an ‘oh my God’ low price.’”
From Mansion Global on New York. “A penthouse has been relisted with a massive price cut in a new boutique condo in Manhattan’s Carnegie Hill. The price tag for the penthouse, the largest and most expensive unit in the nine-residence building on 1110 Park Ave., was lowered to $25.95 million Tuesday, more than $18 million, or 41%, less than the asking price three years ago.”
“The penthouse was first listed for $44 million by the building’s developer Toll Brother City Living, when the condo was still under construction in October 2014. The price was dropped to $35 million in early 2015 before the construction was completed that fall. After a year, the developer signed on a brokerage and reduced the price further to $29.95 million in April 2016. In addition to the penthouse, Warburg Realty also re-listed another high-floor unit in the building for $15.95 million last week. The 5,097-square-foot residence was listed for $20 million in 2015 by the developer, Toll Brother City Living.”
“In August, former Avon CEO Andrea Jung sold her apartment in the building, which she never moved into, for $17 million, a loss compared to the $17.616 million she paid in July 2016.”
Mauna Loa, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/maunaloa-hi/market-trends/
I love the smell of foreclosures in the morning:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-27/new-home-sales-smash-expectations-spike-10-year-highs-average-price-tops-400k-first-
The end is near!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-27/u-s-new-home-sales-unexpectedly-climb-to-highest-in-a-decade
I wish the MSM would extend these graphs farther back than the bubble years so we can see what the numbers looked like not just 10 years ago, but 15 and 20 years ago as well.
People who only show you selected portions of a data set are lying to you.
HA!
From the comments:
“When I bought in 1999, my home costs me 3 yrs. gross salary. Sold in June this year. Wages are still at 1999 levels after adjusting for real inflation, so debts are higher to maintain the standard of living, pulling future earnings forward.”
This is it in a nutshell. All these low rates and crazy financing schemes are doing is stealing future demand, which the Fed obviously hopes it can mitigate with higher inflation. I don’t know how long this can go on, but prices on durable goods march higher and higher with no apparent limit. There are American trucks with $80,000 stickers now.
“which the Fed obviously hopes it can mitigate with higher inflation.”
For most of my lifetime, “inflation” has been considered a dirty word. To me, it still is. Has “inflating away” debt every really worked? As far as I can tell, inflation just causes misery. Inflated home prices are just disgusting.
Inflation is like a management fee, for letting you participate in “their” currency.
Just a way to encourage you to use it as a medium of exchange but discouraging you from sitting on it and keeping it out of circulation as though it were a long term store of value.
“There are American trucks with $80,000 stickers now.”
+1 When the government will create a GSE for the auto industry?
Just an interesting article where prime real estate and the reality of life intersect…
++++++
Inside Crackland: the open-air drug market that São Paulo just can’t kick
The Guardian - November 27, 2017
“It’s a horrible life. You don’t eat. You don’t sleep. Any money you can get goes on crack,” says Felipa Drumont.
Drumont is 26, trans, homeless and addicted to crack. For the last four years, she has lived on the streets of an area of central São Paulo that has become infamous: Cracolândia, literally “Crackland”.
Here, hundreds of people sit in the middle of the street, wrapped in blankets, and smoke crack openly. Others wander, wild eyed, looking for tin cans and other recyclables to sell. Most are skinny and gaunt, faces contorted from years of drug abuse. There is garbage everywhere and a thick smell of body odour.
Even more surprisingly, on weekdays, there are also workers with backpacks and suited office types, who scurry past on the opposite side of the street. Despite being a scene of intense urban degradation, Crackland in fact sits on prime real estate.
It is next to Luz, the city’s biggest and busiest train station. Less than 100m away is a neoclassical style concert hall that last year hosted a performance by American jazz legend Herbie Hancock. There are private technical colleges nearby, and a leisure centre. The office of South America’s biggest newspaper, Folha de São Paulo, known sometimes as the New York Times of Brazil, is a few blocks away.
There are, however, two key differences. First, Cracolândia isn’t located in vacant land, but right in the middle of the bustling downtown core. The area has been gentrifying, and an ambitious revitalisation is planned for 2018, including 1,200 new apartments.
There is garbage everywhere and a thick smell of body odour.
Just like downtown Denver on the 16th Street Mall, LOLZ.
How do they afford the crack? From what I understand, crack is the kind of drug where you have to constantly keep smoking it or the high is gone. That sounds very expensive, and these people look like zombies. How can a zombie afford to keep buying crack? It’s a mystery to me.
Presumably they are stealing and selling and possibly prostituting. But yeah, they don’t look nearly nimble or energetic enough to keep up thieving for long. And looking at that kind of area… how much is there to steal?
And how much market is there really for zombie prostitutes?
“It’s a horrible life. You don’t eat. You don’t sleep. Any money you can get goes on crack,” says Felipa Drumont.
Fentanyl would ease their pain.
Fentanyl would ease their pain.
Just a whiff of carfentanyl would put them to sleep, permanently.
Does anyone see ANY parallels to certain American companies or business models?
It is also interesting that the Chinese stock market (CSI 300) is down about 7% in the last few days, no even a peep in the fake legacy media.
+++++++
China’s Bike-Share Startup Frenzy Turns into Money-Suck
Wolf Richter • Nov 26, 2017
Bike-sharing companies – with their capital-intensive, cash-burning, ride-subsidizing business model – were among the hottest startups in China. They’ve attracted $2 billion in venture funding over the 18 months of the frenzy. They now count over 40 platforms, though the industry is dominated by huge piles of mutilated, stolen, and abandoned bicycles and by two unicorns (valued over $1 billion), Mobike and Ofo, that kicked off the frenzy and carve up 95% of the market.
But this is how quickly a frenzy can deflate.
On Thursday, Chinese media reported that Mingbike, with operations in major cities, had laid off 99% of its staff, after consumers had complained that they’d been unable to get their deposits of 199 yuan (about $30) back. Some of the laid-off employees “posted complaints on social media saying their salary had been withheld for several months,” according to the South China Morning Post:
The bike-share cash-suck works like this: Users download the app to their smartphones and pay a deposit. The ride costs a tiny fee of usually 1 yuan or less ($0.15 or less) per hour – unless the ride is free, which it often is, on the time-honored principle that the company would make it up with volume. Users unlock a bike with their smartphones. At their destination, they’re supposed to park the bike on a sidewalk or public space.
But Minkbike’s collapse was just the latest. Earlier this month, Bluegogo, the third largest bike-share outfit, collapsed. It had claimed 20 million registered users at its peak and operated 600,000 bikes. It has raised $90 million from VCs, including aptly named Black Hole Capital, based in Beijing, which led the last funding round, $58 million, in February this year. It only took eight months to burn through this money.
Bluegogo’s users saw their 199 yuan deposits go up in smoke. These worries about losing their deposits has the effect that these millions of users asked for their deposits back, and the truth where their money has gone – namely, up in smoke – emerges.
The first bike-share company already went public in August: Changzhou Youon Public Bicycle System raised 644 million yuan ($96 million). Its shares soared for the first four days and closed at 100.30 yuan on August 31, nearly quadrupling its IPO price of 26.85 yuan. But in less than three months since then, the share price has plunged 44%, to a new post peak low of 56.45 yuan.
In all honesty whether Chinese stocks are up 7% or down 7%, means nothing to me. The entire Chinese economy is fake and its stock market is even more fakerer. Anyone who believes any economic “statistics” from Beijing is a fool. Which is why I always laugh when someone says China is growing at 10% a year or whatever the number of the day is.
1. That “fake” Chinese money is fueling housing bubbles all around the world
2. That “fake” Chinese industrial demand is fueling mining, raw materials and oil demand all around the world
3. There are lots of foreign investors in China
When it pops - it will echo around the world. To include sovereign demand for debt of other major nations.
Right. They are definitely influential. I’m just saying +7 or -7 is meaningless since nobody has any actual real data on which to trade. Might as well flip a coin and it can come up +7 or -7.
One thing is simple enough, all their growth has been based on credit expansion. More credit expansion than ever in history. Stop inflating that and there will be a hard vacuum.
Thanks for posting…I wondered how the economics worked that were allowing people to ride so cheaply and so many (mountains of) bikes to be discarded.
Now I see that it was all about the deposits…kind of like Tesla lately but on much smaller amounts from many more people. At least the money going poof is only about $30 or so per customer. I don’t care so much about the investor money going poof…they knew it was too good to be true all along but didn’t care.
The sad thing is that when Tesla runs out of cash there will be no shortage of suckers willing to give them even more cash to burn.
The sad thing is that when Tesla runs out of cash there will be no shortage of suckers willing to give them even more cash to burn.
As long as that remains true they will continue to “succeed”.
I am kind of hoping to get a cheap(er) AWD Model 3 with Ludicrous mode out of this before it all falls apart. Or if by some miracle they become legitimately profitable that works for me too.
In praise of Tesla’s bankruptcy:
https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/26/in-praise-of-teslas-bankruptcy/
“if (like me) you have no financial interest in the business’s success or failure, is: does it matter?
I’m entirely serious. We tend to assume that a company’s purpose is to make money for its shareholders, or at least “not go bankrupt,” because money is how we measure success. And this is in fact true of most companies. But it is not true of Tesla. “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure,” and this is as true of money as it is of any other measure. The purpose of Tesla is not to make money; it is to pioneer fleets of smart mass-market electric cars, and the infrastructure to support them, and battery technology which is not limited to cars. Making money is ancillary.
And whether or not they are making money, they are succeeding at their purpose. They are building the world’s largest factory — in fact, the world’s largest building; it’s still under construction, but parts of it are already up and running. They all but own the luxury electric car market, and are on course to dominate the mass market as well, while also manufacturing power packs.”
The purpose of Tesla is not to make money; it is to pioneer fleets of smart mass-market electric cars, and the infrastructure to support them, and battery technology which is not limited to cars. Making money is ancillary.
Says who? Has the government interest become so great that now they should be a public utility instead of a for-profit corporation?
Tesla is not funded by the government. They continue to attract significant private capital. The point is that the cars are there. The infrastructure is there. The plants are there. That is not going away. Pandora’s box is open. EVs are here to stay. Even if Tesla cannot turn a profit, it has successfully steered the markets towards EV, perhaps much more earlier than ever.
Hopefully the battery technology moves forward.
Wonder if this has effect the selling prices of Greek houses on these island?
I have been to some of those islands back in the day. Beautiful. Windy. Very cool places to hand out. Wonder if the natives want the wall to be built?
+++++
Surge in Migrants Creates Abysmal Conditions on Greek Islands
Wall Street Journal | 11/26/2017 | Nektaria Stamouli
SAMOS, Greece—Three months ago, Shehab Kabalan, a 20-year-old from Syria, traveled in a small boat from Turkey to Greece in the hope of receiving asylum in Europe and starting a new life.
Instead he is trapped on the island of Samos, living in a flimsy tent among dozens of other migrants and refugees, prevented from traveling to the mainland and now bracing for a hard winter.
But a surge in recent months has created abysmal conditions here, sparking accusations that EU and Greek authorities are leaving thousands of migrants exposed to disease, cold weather and violence as a deterrent to other would-be refugees. Earlier this fall, 200 people were crossing to the Greek islands of Samos, Chios, Lesbos, Leros and Kos daily, a fourfold increase over the spring. Arrivals have declined in recent weeks but remain high despite the worsening weather.
Nonsense. Diversity is our greatest strength, so when Greeks become diverse they too will become stronger.
But even with less expensive offerings than some of the new developments sprouting along the Peninsula, Pierce said he too is witnessing a slowing market, resulting in lingering vacancies and occasional discounts for tenants.
So far it’s been mainly new luxury getting the price drops, but now it’s trickling down to less expensive offerings. So this is new. My guess is that even the less expensive offerings are so exorbitant that people need stay in Mom’s basement anyway. Maybe this will trick down even more.
Another factor driving the cost drop is the crush of recent residential development becoming available, increasing supply to meet the outsize demand. ‘We are starting to see the benefits from new supply,’ said Pierce, pointing to ongoing construction of developments in Redwood City, San Mateo and Foster City. ‘It’s causing the market to soften a bit because we have a lot of product.’”
It will be interesting to see what happens after the pig goes through the python…if there are more pigs on the way, then you can expect all rent levels to continue to decline over time. However, if the surge in supply is a one-time event, and we get back to “normal” levels of apartment construction in the Bay Area, you probably won’t see a continued decline in rents.
‘you probably won’t see a continued decline in rents’
Click!
The article draws a direct link from a boom in development to the fall in rents.
Shocking? Not at all.
Nor is it shocking to believe that rents will stabilize if construction falls back to their historic (paltry) levels.
Limited supply led to high rents. Increased supply is leading to lower rents. How many different cities are playing this out now? How many cities are experiencing lower rents WITHOUT increased local supply? Any?
With 25 million excess, empty and defaulted housing units out there and record low demand, there isn’t a need to build more housing.
You aren’t talking about a shortage anymore, I see.
Not in places where there has been lots of development, no. And as I’ve noted before, this is mainly in markets that are considered “primary”, where foreign capital is comfortable investing. HOWEVER, unless the development is sustained at levels meaningfully higher than the typically paltry levels, you won’t see continued rent declines in these markets.
But nationally we are still not building enough housing–which is why while we have seen some markets have rent declines, but rents not broadly declining nationally.
I’m surprised that you haven’t drawn a line from the increase in supply to the decline in rents. Seems like the dynamic I’ve been talking about (increased supply leads to decreases in rents) is being proven over and over again.
My question remains…are you aware of any cities that have declining rents there there was NOT a burst in development? I haven’t seen any (other than perhaps markets really hit hard by the oil bust).
“Limited supply led to high rents.”
“Limited supply led to high rents.”
so did the ingrained belief that rents could or maybe even should be raised annually. no thinking, just belief.
They’ve built more apartments and condos in Dallas and Houston than anywhere else. Everything is overbuilt, everywhere. Student, senior, and most of it is the wrong type - “luxury”. The question is, how could this turn of events occur? How could an entire industry get it so wrong simultaneously? It is a financial mania rooted in land prices.
The question is, how could this turn of events occur? How could an entire industry get it so wrong simultaneously?
The simpler the thesis, the easier it is to attract capital. The thesis for building apartments is at least two-fold–and national in scope (the same arguments work everywhere):
1. Millennials (a rather large, and young cohort) are getting married and starting their families later–a continuation of a longer-term trend (and thus renting for longer);
2. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, lots of people became renters, and may never buy again (credit issues, Housing PTSD, etc.);
And in the case of Dallas/Houston
3. Business-friendly environment is driving employers to locate in Dallas/Houston…jobs lead to housing demand.
You point to land prices as what is driving luxury apartments vs. lower priced apartments. I think it goes beyond land prices…construction costs are way, way up (shockingly so). We are evaluating an apartment project where the land component is a very small piece of the budget (less than 5%). Even without meaningful amenities adding cost, the rents that need to be charged to make the deal “pencil” are at the high end of the market.
“Luxury” rents are not being driven in that case from high land prices at all…but the high cost of construction generally.
What are some examples of the components of construction cost that are suddenly “way up”?
What are some examples of the components of construction cost that are suddenly “way up” ??
rental Watch is correct…
‘Average U.S. commercial real estate prices are now far over their 2007 bubble peak, about 22 percent higher than they were in the excesses of a decade ago, just before their last big crash. In inflation-adjusted terms, they are also well over their bubble peak, by about 6 percent.’
‘In the wake of the bubble, the Federal Reserve set out to create renewed asset-price inflation. It certainly succeeded with commercial real estate – a sector often at the center of financial booms and busts.’
‘Commercial real estate prices dropped like a rock after 2007, far more than did house prices, falling on average 40 percent to their trough in 2010. Since then, the asset price inflation has been dramatic: up more than 100 percent from the bottom. In inflation-adjusted terms, they are up 83 percent.’
‘This remarkable price history is shown in Graph 1.’
http://www.rstreet.org/2017/07/24/is-the-real-estate-double-bubble-back/
And rental watch thinks this is all nails and sheet-rock.
The irony here is materials and labor costs today are lower than they were 15 years ago.
Nope, commercial property values haven’t gone up primarily because of nails and sheet rock. Commercial property values are primarily driven by higher NOI and cap rate compression. All-else equal, if the cap rate falls from 6% to 5%, the value of the building increases by 20%. If it goes even further to 4%, that next point is worth 25%.
Since commercial property values are primarily driven by properties that have already been constructed, NOI and cap rates are the primary drivers of value. AND cap rates are influenced by interest rates (although not 100% correlation…more like 50% based on what I’ve read).
HOWEVER, low cap rates should allow more development to occur (which would keep a lid on rents and NOI)–and with lower NOI growth, the cap rates people are willing to pay go up (and value down). In many cases, additional supply being added is being hindered by high construction costs.
As an example, we invested in a property that we liked IN PART because market rents didn’t support the development of additional supply. When doing our homework, we found that owners of like properties WITH EXCESS LAND (ie. they had access to no cost land), weren’t adding supply despite low vacancy rates because construction costs were too high (even assuming relatively low exit cap rates).
And so, with low vacancy rates, and no construction of additional supply (because costs are too high), rents are rising faster than inflation, which is leading to high sales prices (in part because of the Fed, and in part because buyers assume they can continue to push rents faster than inflation).
So, high construction costs contribute to high commercial property prices by virtue of limiting development. However, the acceptance of lower investment yields (thank you Fed) is a much bigger driver.
And to answer the other question, from what I’ve seen, the high construction costs are mainly driven by labor costs going up.
The irony here ??
Irony;
synonyms: sarcasm, causticity, cynicism, mockery, satire, sardonicism…
Sums you up quite nicely…
“The irony here…”
We won’t tell you what our costs are Mr. Watch, but we will tell you YOUR costs are going to be higher.
?
http://www.turnerconstruction.com/cost-index
Increasing by about 5% per year according to Turner (who has been tracking construction costs by ~80 years). The rate of increase has been exceeding inflation for several years now post-crash.
NYC commercial real estate prices doubled in 2014 to 2015.
Nobody cares what an office space contractor likeTurner says. Do you think construction firms consult with Turner before they bid work? They don’t. They talk their book like you. Have you ever built or bid a job with Turner? I have.
What matters here are unit prices.The fact remains that division 3 4 5 6 7 and 8 prices are lower today then they were in 2000.
I’m speculating here but I have the sense that you used other people’s money to “invest” in some type of real estate. If I’m right you’ve got a serious problem on your hands. A very serious problem my friend.
“according to Turner…”
So, it’s not the builder’s costs that are going up, it’s the builder’s prices; what they are charging R.Watch & Co for specuvestments. Due to the “High Level of Construction Activity”.
You nailed it.
So, it’s not the builder’s costs that are going up, it’s the builder’s prices; what they are charging R.Watch & Co for specuvestments. Due to the “High Level of Construction Activity”
I swear to god a lot of people don’t know the difference between cost and price, or between ROI and profit margin (”he made a 300% profit margin on that item!”), or between paper profit and actual cash in the bank.
And a lot of these people consider themselves sophisticated businessmen and investors.
A GC’s price minus their cost equals their profit.
A GC’s price is part of a developer’s cost.
It isn’t that complicated. GCs price (ie. the developer’s construction cost) is going up. This can be because of subcontractor’s pricing…or the GC being able to get away with a higher profit margin.
There is no “developer”. Maybe that’s your confusion.
“if the cap rate falls from 6% to 5%, the value of the building increases by 20%…”
Isn’t that a thing of beauty? If your return is smaller, you are willing to pay more for the property! I so love having “investing” explained.
I don’t think you do like having “investing” explained because you still don’t seem to understand it.
DebtDonkey
Miromar Lakes, FL Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/miromar-lakes-fl/market-trends/
Lots more housing needed in Florida.
In a sane world, housing and taxes should be DIRT CHEAP in Puerto Rico (and upstate NY for that matter) and this would, in turn, attract people and businesses back.
However, in our obama $20 Trillion deficit, bailouts for all banks, TARP, public unions need not cut a penny even in bankruptcy, promise the free sh*t army more free sh*t nation - that doesn’t happen.
++++++
Puerto Ricans could transform Florida politics, and parties are taking notice
NBC “News” ^ | November 27, 2017 | by Carmen Sesin
Posted on 11/27/2017, 10:11:14 AM by Oldeconomybuyer
MIAMI — Grisel Robles arrived in Miami in late September, after Hurricane Maria flooded her house and wiped out the life she and her family had. Starting a new job and rebuilding her life, along with her husband and 6-month-old daughter, has left little time to focus on politics. But she is taking note of one aspect of the political landscape.
“I have noticed who is defending our rights as Puerto Ricans,” she said.
It could very well be that Puerto Ricans like Robles are the deciding factor in the Florida Senate race and a number of other key races.
As American citizens living on the island, Puerto Ricans cannot vote in presidential elections and can only send non-voting representatives to Congress. But once they make the move and are living on the mainland, they only need to register to be eligible to vote.
So far, over 189,000 Puerto Ricans have migrated to the Sunshine State after the hurricane left unimaginable destruction throughout the island. Planes arriving to Florida from Puerto Rico remain full and some estimate as many as half a million people will eventually make their way here.
Dems are arriving daily and baby boomers are departing daily. Florida is going to turn blue fast.
Or not.
http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2017/09/20/florida-gop-polk-and-volusia-counties-are-now-majority-republican/
“The Republican Party of Florida announced in a Wednesday release that the party has flipped two counties, Polk and Volusia, that were once majority-Democrat to majority-Republican.
For several election cycles, we have tirelessly worked to train and empower our grassroots leaders of the Republican Party because they are the lifeline to expanding our party,” state party chairman Blaise Ingoglia said in a release. “The momentum is building, and Polk and Volusia counties are continued proof that the RPOF remains hard at work, even during an off-year.”
I couldn’t believe Hillsborough County (Tampa’s county) went for Hillary. However, given all the immigrants, both legal and illegal, plus all the lefty buttwipes that have been moving down in droves from the Northeast and Chicago areas, it should not have surprised me. They’ve managed to turn what was once a rather pleasant area into a congested, expensive stinkhole.
Generally speaking these “Democrats will rule for 40 years” predictions are stupid. Things change quickly. Very quickly. Who would have thought WI and MI would vote for Trump? Or PA? And just 10 years ago Colorado was pretty reliably Republican, now it’s CA with worse weather.
And just 10 years ago Colorado was pretty reliably Republican, now it’s CA with worse weather.
Colorado’s been purple for a long time, but it’s not blue yet. You will know when it’s finally blue when voters repeal TABOR. And I do think that day is coming, but I hope to be gone by then.
That’s a strange announcement. Polk County is deeply conservative, Bible-belt territory that gave George Wallace a plurality and hasn’t gone to a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976. Volusia is historically conservative, too.
As a general statement, there are plenty of Latinos who support Trump. With people re-aligning and both traditional parties crumbling, I wouldn’t bank on any prediction. As of 2015, “no party affiliation” was the predominant registration in a dozen counties, including South Florida (Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) and Orange County.
‘Rent for a one-bedroom unit in San Mateo last month floated near $2,500…down from the yearly peak of nearly $2,600 in June. Last year, prices for similar units were reported as expensive as $3,100′
My calculator says 19%.
A few years ago, asking rents in this area were met with renters BIDDING UP the asking rent in order to get the apartment. It certainly is a HUGE change to go from that market environment to one where rents are falling.
My theory is this metro is in recession:
‘In October 2013, developer Crescent Heights announced that New York celebrity chef Suvir Saran would open an 8,500-square-foot restaurant on the ground floor of NEMA, a 700-unit apartment complex at 10th and Market streets. But the restaurant never opened. About 18 months after the announcement, Saran pulled out, citing “unanticipated complications and endless delays.”
‘And more than four years later, all of the 13,500 square feet of retail space at NEMA sits vacant — a blank glass wall fronts Market Street instead of the lively shops and restaurants the developer had promised. But Crescent Heights, which did not return calls seeking comment about the status of the space, is not alone when it comes to empty retail spaces in newly constructed buildings.’
‘In a city where ground-floor retail is often required in residential developments, much of the new stock sits empty. A look at 20 housing developments on or within a few blocks of Market Street between Castro Street and Fifth Street — all completed within the last five years — found 17 vacant storefronts, about 45 percent of the total. While some of the empty spaces are relatively new, like the three storefronts at 181 Sanchez St., others, like NEMA, have been around for four or five years and have yet to land tenants.’
‘The situation is similar on Fourth Street in Mission Bay, which is being billed as the nascent neighborhood’s shopping corridor. Only two retailers have moved in on the east side of the street, while entire blocks of storefronts remain vacant. To the north, at the 410-unit L7 project at 1222 Harrison St., the biggest recent development in SoMa, all five spacious retail spaces are empty, although signage indicates one has been leased to a furniture shop.’
‘While housing developers lean heavily on local nightlife and retail in luring renters or buyers to their properties, interest in those matters often doesn’t seem to extend to their own buildings, said Gail Baugh, vice president of the Hayes Valley Neighborhood Association. “Bad things happen when you abandon the street, and that is what a lot of developers are doing,” Baugh said.’
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/SF-developers-struggling-to-fill-new-ground-floor-12372889.php?t=83ed034b7e
In a city where ground-floor retail is often required in residential developments, much of the new stock sits empty.
The vacancies have nothing to do with the market being in recession, but is simply another example of overbearing approval processes.
If the developers had their way, they wouldn’t be building ground floor retail at all.
Who the hell wants to build more retail in today’s environment? Certainly not the investors or developers. They want to build to meet the demand in the market, which is for housing, not retail. Only the cities want more retail. After all, they don’t need to pay for it, but get the sales tax revenue regardless of the low rents the developer needs to charge to fill it.
What they need to do is to rent out some of that ground floor space for Amazon lockers, so the residents upstairs can pick up their goods when they arrive at home.
You say that jokingly, but Amazon is experimenting with lockers for some apartments.
https://www.marketplace.org/2017/10/19/business/are-amazon-delivery-lockers-your-apartment-building-s-next-amenity
Amazon doesn’t need an entire retail suite for their lockers.
Exactly.
Retail as we’ve known it is dead. Cities might as well force developers to provide an elevator operator, makes as much sense.
One of my favorite things about Asia in general is all the ground floor retail. It’s nice to be able to just go downstairs to get a bite to eat and whatever you need from Family Mart. But for it to work the commercial rent must be cheap. If they can’t fill it, then I know somebody had unrealistic ideas about what it would rent for.
I don’t need high end retail down there. I need cheap food and shampoo.
To make ground floor retail work, you need density, density, density.
But via Nimbyism, density is often LESS than developers would like.
The combination of reduced density, AND requirements for retail is not a good combination.
+1 Carl.
Small retail always does well at ground level. 7-11, McDonald’s or Subway, small delis, beer and wine. One large high rise put a regular grocery store under it. (not sure how they handled all the parking).
Amazon lockers are not a bad idea. The high-rise I used to live in had a package room with an attendant anyway.
Small retail always does well at ground level. 7-11, McDonald’s or Subway, small delis, beer and wine.
Sounds perfect.
One large high rise put a regular grocery store under it. (not sure how they handled all the parking).
I think some big city grocery stores can get away with no parking, or else they put multiple sub levels of parking under it. But with subways and taxis and Uber/Lyft you can get away with it if you’re the only decent store for miles.
It depends on the size of whatever apartment complex is above. At least one complex I know of is a 15+ story tower. You would need enough parking spaces for at least 50%(?) of the units, and store customers too.
I’m not optimistic that Amazon will take over small retail. It’s just too easy to run downstairs for whatever, but you never know.
Oakton, VA Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Northern Virginia/DC Rental Prices Plunge
https://www.movoto.com/oakton-va/market-trends/
‘Absorption, the change in the number of occupied units, will total about 2,900 units this year—also a record—and 3,000 in both 2018 and 2019, according to Integra. Put another way, downtown supply growth—13,000 new apartments over three years—will exceed demand by 4,100 units, or 46 percent.’
‘The difference now is there’s more fear of the unknown. We’re getting aggressive because you don’t know,’ says Jim Letchinger, president of Chicago-based JDL Development, which opened a 250-unit tower at 640 N. Wells St. over the summer. ‘Is this just seasonal, or is this something else?’
Bambi, why are you staring at those lights? And that noise, it’s getting louder, almost like a train.
Exceeding demand by 46%….
What could go wrong?
Imagine a world with historical interest rates and historical government spending rate.
What’s funny about Chicago is the writing has been on the wall for a long time. Yet they do the familiar, “oh it’ll pick up, it’ll get absorbed, eventually” that the industry uses to con lenders into just one more project. The people “analyzing” these markets are the very worst, more foolish than the developers even.
Exceeding demand by 46%….
What could go wrong?
Ferrari knows that even one too many units is highly undesirable for profits and image. One too few is just perfect.
“Bambi, why are you staring at those lights? And that noise, it’s getting louder, almost like a train.”
Lol. It is difficult to get Bambi to understand something, when his specuvestment depends upon his not understanding it.
“Housing inventory in Westchester County has reached its lowest level in 13 years, according to a recent report from Douglas Elliman, and while that record-low supply has led to frequent bidding wars in the low- to midlevel markets,”
Lot to mid levels = $600K-$1M.
Which is what I mentioned last week when I was looking at the possibility of moving to NYC. $1M is barely livable, doesn’t need to be gutted in the NYC suburbs.
Just a FYI.
A $750,000 house in a decent town in Westchester County that has a train station to NYC is a nothing special 4 bd/2ba on a quarter of an acre with an outdated kitchen/baths and will need a new roof/furnace in a few years.
Property taxes will be around $24,000 per year.
Yep. And from what I saw online it needed new flooring, new paint, new landscaping, new driveway (old one was nothing but cracks), pretty much new everything. So $1M to buy it for $750K and renovate or buy one for $1M that already has the renovations done.
$24K…small price to pay to make sure the local school janitors earn $100K a year and retire at 55.
That is a staggering amount for the taxes - $2K/month? Wowee . . . So your monthly PITI is somewhere around $4K/month? And then add utilities and maintenance?
As a general guide RE taxes in NY are around 3%.
I was talking to a friend yesterday in Westchester and her brother, modest house fully paid for, still pays $1,000 a month in property taxes. The people are social climbers, the schools suck, and my kid was tortured daily. When she was about to enter middle school I said hell no, and paid around $4K yearly to send her to a Montessori school.
When we left, our prop tx was around $9-9.5K. This was in 2006.
When I first proposed to the fam that we follow my brother out to Las Vegas, I gently started promoting a change of coast by describing the cost of living here as a “sleigh ride to hell.”
Despite our trials and tribulations with renting right now, it’s still better than dealing with those snobby jerks. I do miss seeing my family so rarely, though.
Hey - Get on the property ladder!!!
Yes. You are looking at least $6,000/month just to be able to turn on/off the lights and sleep in the crusty carpet floors of your Westchester mansion.
I had a new buyer in the area explain it to me this way.
“I was living in NYC with two kids. Public school stink and a decent private school is about $20k per child. So it is a BARGAIN to move up to Westchester, commute to the job in NYC and send the kids to a decent public school. The trick is to immediately sell once they graduate High School.”
And the lights aren’t even on yet.
Why buy it when you can rent it for half the monthly cost? Buy it later after prices crater for 75% less.
“That is a staggering amount for the taxes - 2K/month?”
Agreed… how do people retire there?
I am now 58 years old, I grew up in Old Greenwich Connecticut.
After having raised my Family in South Florida, if I could have afforded to buy a house for $1 millon in Old Greenwich or Riverside to raise them I would have.
I understand why you feel that way, but it’s just as easy for kids to get involved with some vicious creeps in Greenwich as it is in Florida. Trust me on this. I speak from experience. The creeps in Greenwich have more money, better clothing and cars, is all.
You’re right, just a bad Holiday.
I guess I have a few more bad Holidays if not all of them still to go.
Don’t think renting is any better. That same house will rent for close to $5K easy and no tax deductions of any kind.
Or you can live someplace much better and rent for a tiny amount by comparison, giving yourself tons of free time to actually, I dont know, enjoy life?
“Or you can live someplace much better and rent for a tiny amount by comparison, giving yourself tons of free time to actually, I dont know, enjoy life?”
Moved to AZ from San Diego. Rented 4bd 2400sf on golf course, inground spa, great mountain views, way better schools. Same price as my 2 bedroom 1960’s 750 sq ft crap apt with no dishwasher and terrible forced bused schools. No brainer.
Winthrop, WA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/winthrop-wa/market-trends/
Today’s appliances last long enough to get through the interest-only period.
Especially the fridges with Chinese made compressors. Our 20+ year old Whirlpool is still humming happily.
U.S. new home sales surge unexpectedly, hitting 10-year high in October
- Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly rose in October.
- Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipated new home sales falling 6 percent for the month.
- New home sales have now increased for three straight months, now hitting the highest level in 10 years.
Published 5 Hours Ago
Updated 5 Hours Ago
Reuters
Prospective buyers with their real estate agent survey the kitchen of a new home in Denver.
Matthew Staver | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Prospective buyers with their real estate agent survey the kitchen of a new home in Denver.
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly rose in October, hitting their highest level in 10 years amid robust demand across the country.
The Commerce Department said on Monday new home sales increased 6.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000 units last month. That was the highest level since October 2007 and followed September’s slightly downwardly revised sales pace of 645,000 units.
New home sales have now increased for three straight months.
…
u r a genius
If I were that smart, then I could tell you whether this news is real or fake.
The graphic I saw related to that story earlier made it look like the whole “surge” was in new homes. All I know for sure is that the used homes I’ve been watching in Folsom/El Dorado Hills the last couple of months seem pretty stagnant. Some price drops but not a lot…just kind of “not giving it away” and waiting until after the Super Bowl it would appear.
22 secrets your real estate agent isn’t telling you
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/loan-finance/22-secrets-your-real-estate-agent-isnt-telling-you/ss-BBCG5SG?li=BBnbfcN#image=22
#22 “YOU HAVE TO KNOW TODAY’S MARKET
I know it’s heart-breaking, but the fact that your house was worth a lot more a few years ago is simply not relevant. You’ve got to be realistic about today’s market.”
this bull market is getting long in the teeth
hogs get slaughtered
Back from Thanksgiving in Wyoming. Noticed that a big building that’s been being remodeled for at least the last year and a half finally opened for use close to my work in San Jose. They really took their time with it but now Broadcom has moved in (I think they are second only to Cisco for now many buildings they have scattered all over the place here). Saw the H1B crowd out walking around at lunch time checking out the neighborhood lunch spots.
Still a few more suspiciously empty buildings in the neighborhood though that have been that way since before I got here. But one down, I suppose.
who is buying all this tech? seems like nothing new in years. I’m using an old computer that works great.
My 17″ Macbook Pro is dying on me. Love the big screen. Many known issues. I’ll miss it when it’s gone.
who is buying all this tech?
Not sure who Broadcom’s customers are. But the tech I work on is bought in bulk by the Facebooks and Googles of the world. Somebody’s gotta store my pithy words of wisdom forever…
who is buying all this tech
Cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, etc. have been building data centers left and right. Plus there are still on premise buyers as well as large enterprise on premise customers.
Unlike your desktop, servers and other enterprise hardware gets retired before it gets too old and thus unreliable.
Premise. You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means…
The buyers will reach a conclusion eventually.
He forgot the “s” at the end.
He forgot the “s” at the end.
No. It’s a misconception a lot of people have that it’s “on premise” and not “on premises”. It’s definitely not a typo.
Big Sur, CA Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/big-sur-ca/market-trends/
So these guys make a short film about going out into the desert to create a model of the solar system, at scale. Their point was that we never see the solar system at scale. But when they take their sun and planetary representations, they aren’t able to simply give them a tap and have them start orbiting the representation of the Sun, at the center of their model.
The solar system, to behave as it does, requires a certain size, to exhibit the properties it does (emergent properties of systems). I thought it was an interesting concept. Here’s the video, I quite enjoyed it for its thought-provoking and entertaining qualities: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR3Igc3Rhfg
So, what might or might not work in an economy of a thousand people may not be applicable to an economy of hundreds of millions or billions of people. There may well be “emergent properties” of that system.
Interesting. I think it applies to politics too. Conservatives generally reject this and think that “if it worked when I was a kid it should work now”. Usually they are right but emergence suggests that sometimes they are wrong because the system is bigger and more complex now. In the meantime liberals probably overestimate the effects of emergence and assume that “it’s different this time” and the old lessons learned are worthless.
“The solar system, to behave as it does, requires a certain size…”
Consider that it needs to not be sitting on the surface of a relatively gigantic planet.
I don’t know that even in space that it would behave as a solar system. Every atom has a gravitational field. We see binary asteroid/comet systems zip by from time to time. But it’s unclear to me that even in space, that the scaled down beachball-sized sun could generate enough gravity to capture the earth or other planets in an orbit. It seems to me that it would require more mass in order to generate the gravitational field necessary to capture objects in an orbit. We’d probably have to consult an astrophysicist for a final answer.
So, what might or might not work in an economy of a thousand people may not be applicable to an economy of hundreds of millions or billions of people. There may well be “emergent properties” of that system.
People, i.e. “the economy”, are not at all like planets and solar systems. We are not inanimate objects being acted upon by universal forces. The principle feature of people is decision-making.
The principle feature of people is decision-making.
People’s decision making is definitely affected by how many other people are around them. I think that’s one of the biggest differences you see between red state thinking and blue state thinking. Each can make sense in its context but make no sense in the other context (small groups versus big groups).
The “bubble” is now infecting area’s that have low employment and wages.
The 250k house way out back is now 350-400k. The local’s get priced out.
LaJolla, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Housing Demand Plummets
https://www.movoto.com/la-jolla-ca/market-trends/
La Jolla must be running out of rich people again. I can say first hand that they are not out of lavishly furnished ocean view luxury pads.
any suckers here buying bitcoin?
Are winning in the stock market and Bitcoin rally? How does Bitcoin look as a mad money bet at $10,000 a coin?