November 28, 2017

A Lot Of Half-Truths Told During The Boom

A report from Inman News. “When sellers get multiple offers on their home, my practice is to email every offer to the seller as it comes in, and then I prepare a multiple offer spreadsheet so that they can compare offers side-by-side. I recently met with sellers to go over multiple offers and came to a new realization: sellers are doing their homework on a whole other level. They were discussing each prospective buyer in great detail, in fact. Puzzled, I asked how they know so much about each buyer. ‘That’s easy,’ they said. ‘We checked out each one online as the offers came in.’”

“With an extreme shortage of inventory plaguing many housing markets, some sellers are looking to the internet to increase their control over exactly who will purchase their home. Confronted with similar multiple offers, sellers want more than just an awesome price and great terms. ‘If more than one of these offers meets our goals,’ they reason, ‘Then we are going to select the winning buyer based not on the terms, but on who we want living in our property after we leave.’”

“After my first encounter with sellers vetting prospective buyers online, I began hearing of similar practices from others. Although many buyer wannabes submit biographical letters with their offers, the level of information desired by the many sellers is on the rise. Emulating practices prospective employers have utilized for years, some sellers are now performing extensive online searches for buyers submitting offers for their property.”

“Some sellers are even upping the ante by paying for information. Disturbing? Get over it. It’s the new reality. This genie is out of the bottle and will not be returning any time soon.”

From Reuters on Canada. “A drop in Canadian home prices has put some recent buyers under water, particularly in Toronto, the nation’s largest market, just as rising interest rates and record levels of household debt have put the squeeze on borrowers. With homeowners’ equity falling in tandem with a 15 per cent drop in the average Toronto house price since April, and lenders tightening credit in response to tougher regulation, the ability of people to borrow against the value of their home is shrinking. Toronto debt adviser Scott Terrio said a 40 per cent surge in home equity lines of credit since 2011 has helped mask a credit crisis created by consumers who tap their home equity to pay their bills.”

“‘The insolvency business is cyclical, and the last five-year peak was in 2009,’ said Terrio. ‘We’re now into the eighth year of a 5-year cycle because of people’s equity in their homes and low interest rates.’ ‘I think 2018 is going to be a scary year,’ said Douglas Hoyes, an insolvency trustee in Toronto.”

“Terrio and Hoyes both said they have seen a chill in recent months from banks and other lenders looking to cut the riskiest clients from their balance sheets before a crisis hits. Hoyes said many lenders check credit scores quarterly to see which clients are overextended – and then raise interest rates or deny a request for more HELOC money in a bid to drive the riskiest clients elsewhere. ‘That’s how lenders de-risk themselves … they don’t want to tip you over the edge but would kind of like to get rid of you as a client,’ said Hoyes.”

From The New Daily in Australia. “Economists have long argued that ‘perfect information’ is a prerequisite for an efficient market, but there seems to be precious little of that at present in the rental market. Landlords and renters have been told there is a housing shortage one minute and a surplus of dwellings the next. After years of ‘housing shortage’, researchers now argue Australia has too many dwellings. ANU researchers Ben Phillips and Cukkoo Joseph have published a study that compares data on the composition of Australian households with construction data on the number and type of dwellings built over the past 16 years.”

“The difficulty for landlords and renters is they tend to rely on their real estate agent to tell them whether an area is in over- or under-supply. For instance, a landlord contacted me last week to point this out in relation to two dwellings he owned within a few hundred metres of each other – one tenanted, and one vacant. His agent first wrote to him saying the rent on the tenanted unit was too low and he agreed to increase it – only to receive notice the following week that his tenants were moving on.”

“That takes a chunk out of his cash-flow, but allows the agent to re-let the property and collect a letting fee. He was then advised to cut the asking rent on the second, already vacant property. The landlord in question told me: ‘The agent makes these decisions without consulting either tenant or landlord, so it could be a situation where both would be happy with things are they are. In retrospect I think my agent was trying to maximise their letting fees and commission rather than keep the properties tenanted.’”

“Agents have been become expert during the property-boom years at creating a sense of urgency and competition between home hunters. But if they tell you there’s a ‘shortage of properties’ and ‘rents are rising’ they could be using national or city-based averages to talk up an oversupplied area. ‘If you’re talking about renting an apartment in the Melbourne, Sydney or Brisbane CBDs, those would be ridiculous statements,’ Mr Phillips told me.”

“There have been a lot of half-truths told during Australia’s extraordinary two-decades-long housing boom. But as the market swings to oversupply, it’s more important than ever for renters – and landlords – to get the deal that they want, rather than letting the price be set by a stressed, commission-starved agent.”

From Voxy New Zealand. “Property Institute of New Zealand Chief Executive Ashley Church says that the time has come to dump Loan-to-Value lending restrictions (LVRs) following a dramatic drop in house price growth expectations throughout the country. His comments, which parallel similar comments made by the Finance Minister earlier today, are backed up by the latest Property Institute poll of public perceptions which shows that most people are no longer expecting big capital gains from housing - and he says that should signal a relaxation in Loan to Value Ratio restrictions.”

“‘We’ve been running this poll for a year now and since last November there’s been a massive swing away from people expecting price rises, with almost 50% picking prices to stay the same and another 25% expecting prices to decrease.’”

“Mr Church says that In November last year 56% of those polled were expecting prices to rise in the next six months. In November 2017 that figure had dropped to 18%. ‘This has been the trend for sometime now, and it’s clearly a reflection of these artificial lending restrictions - so the Reserve Bank should be taking steps sooner rather than later to relax its loan-to-value ratios to ensure the engineered slowdown in the housing market doesn’t turn into an out-of-control slump.’”




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130 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-28 09:28:33

Here’s an alternative link to the first piece:

https://california.wfgnationaltitle.com/how-far-are-sellers-going-to-investigate-potential-buyers/

From the writers website:

‘As a proud member of the Keller Williams Realty Family, Carl Medford manages a great team of real estate professionals in the San Francisco East Bay.’

Comment by taxpayer
2017-11-28 09:35:10

I’ll sell to pol pot if he’s top bidder-”close to communal fields”

 
Comment by oxide
2017-11-28 11:37:49

The Realtors are just butt-hurt that sellers are looking for hard data instead of falling for those precious feed-the-squirrels sob story letters.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-28 12:26:37

But it is strange that sellers feel entitled to bestow their special gift on only the most worthy of potential buyers. You would think they would just try to turn that extra demand into money instead.

Comment by snake charmer
2017-11-28 12:37:46

Sounds like more upper-middle-class virtue signaling to me. Sure, an unearned and speculative windfall gain was achieved, but the house is being sold to people who compost.

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-11-28 12:40:52

This might be explained in part by the neighbor factor. If the seller has good neighbors then he wouldn’t want to screw them by selling the house to a dysfunctional family.

On the other hand if the neighbors suck then the incentive may be to do just that.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2017-11-28 13:29:30

I’ve heard stories of foreign buyers effectively buying through strawmen…so the sellers thought they were selling to US-based residents, and actually were selling to a foreign investor/speculator who was going to rent out the place and/or not care for it.

The aftermath were properties with overgrown yards, poorly maintained, and upset neighbors/friends who still lived in the neighborhood.

I like my current neighbors, and I would like to think we would remain friends after we sell/leave our current home (years and years from now). When we do sell, I’d like the next owner to not be a neglectful a-hole.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-11-28 13:32:04

BTW, it’s a pretty low bar for a buyer to not to be a neglectful a-hole. I don’t care if the squirrels get fed.

 
Comment by Montanagal
2017-11-28 16:45:36

“Trump supporters need not apply”

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-30 14:02:56

Don’t underestimate the endowment effect. People value what they have more than they otherwise would. Even if they are walking away from their place with cash in hand, the emotional (non-rational) part of us want someone to take good care of our place.

 
 
 
Comment by SFMF
2017-11-28 16:30:52

Someone offers me $100K over asking, I don’t care if it’s Charles Manson’s ghost buying it.

 
 
Comment by jeff
2017-11-28 12:39:02

Ben

Would you mind sending your PO Box or mailing address to my email.

Thanks

 
Comment by Lurker
2017-11-28 12:43:33

When it is no longer up to lenders to vet people based on “can they afford it?”, this is what we get: owners of assets vetting people according to their personal prejudices. “Are they a good person?” “Will they fit in in the neighborhood?” are bad enough, and it only gets much worse from there, empowering bigots to deny people housing based on age, political preference, gender, race, religion, sexual preference, etc. Hard discrimination in housing is illegal, yet these realtors are proudly admitting their clients engage in a soft (and slippery slope) discrimination.

Same with AirBNB, where people who want to rent an apartment have to write a letter introducing themselves and explaining their background/character to the host. Imagine if everyone had to do this to rent a room at a Best Western, or a Four Seasons!

One great aspect of a free market is that money overcomes prejudice, yet three decades of easy money bubblenomics has managed to send us back to the stone age of de-facto self-segregation.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-11-28 16:42:27

The keller williams realty crrrrrrrime family

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-28 09:54:53

I just got this in an email:

‘Metrostudy has released the results of their 3Q17 survey of the Denver housing market which shows record prices pushing activity into attached product - and the resale market becoming a more and more affordable option for buyers. Some of the key findings include:

-Quarterly New Home Starts are up 6% YoY while annual starts continue to grow – also up 6% from 3Q16 levels.
-The strongest growth has been for townhome and duplex product, up 36% for the year, to 3,020 homes, now representing 26% of the market, the highest on record. Detached single family homes now represent 70% of new home starts – the lowest level since 2009.
-At no time in Denver’s history has housing been as expensive as it is now with only 26% of new home starts priced below $400k – which explains, in part, why townhome product is growing so quickly.
-The average detached new home sales price is now at $536,584 for the trailing 12 months ending in September, 4% higher than a year ago.

“At no time in Denver’s history has housing been as expensive as it is now with only 26% of new home starts priced below $400k,” said John Covert, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Denver market. “Many prospective entry-level new home buyers are now priced out of the market, and those that can afford to buy have are either moving further out into the periphery, or into more affordably priced attached product, which explains, in part, why townhome product is growing so quickly. The average detached new home sales price is now at $536,584 for the trailing 12 months ending in September, 4% higher than a year ago.”

Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-28 10:04:00

It is my understanding that builders can be held liable for problems with defects in duplex and townhouse construction in Denver that they would not face when building SFH.

I’m guessing that they know almost no one can afford a 500K+ detached house and they will instead take their chances with more affordable and (hopefully for them) easier to sell attached construction. Either that or build SFH out into the prairie, well past DIA.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-11-28 10:32:42

the prairie

Aurora is the anus of metro Denver.

Comment by rms
2017-11-28 13:48:14

“Aurora is the anus of metro Denver.”

LMFAO… you’ll never be a closer.

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Comment by redmondjp
2017-11-28 16:12:34

They used to say the same thing about Detroit being that same body part of Michigan, and Flint (where I briefly attended college) was 75 miles up it!

Funny, as I stay in Aurora whenever I am in Denver for work.

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Comment by cactus
Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-28 15:50:05

When you read the comments it’s a breath of fresh air. People are not buying it, and recognize it’s a bubble worse than last time.

Comment by sod
2017-11-28 19:50:25

You mean like this guy?

“Actually, risky lending standards is what caused that crisis, so long as sub prime home loans aren’t being packaged and sold as safe investments we should be fine. Also the lending standards were revamped with legislation passed under Obama, so long as well don’t repeal that we should not see a repeat”

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-28 20:07:43

This is a summary of the big lie. Shack prices can grow to the sky, as long as lending is yadda yadda.

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-28 20:10:48

LOL, no, definitely not that guy.

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Comment by Jingle Male
2017-11-29 02:13:36

Jingle Male portfolio update on the second Sacramento foothills home sale:

Two offers the first weekend it was listed. Both full price at $446,000. Took the first one. Under contract.

The appraisal just came in at $432,000….so there’s a hitch. I agree to.lower the price to $432,000. Easy choice….as I would not buy over appraised value (in fact, I prefer buying under).

The price is still $223,000 under the 2006 sale price.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-11-29 07:46:07

DebtDonkey

Plano, TX Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/plano-tx/market-trends/

Comment by Jingle Male
2017-11-29 08:30:24

HA! Is that you? I see you keep reposting the same 4 or 5 markets you claim are crashing.

Can’t you find a few other zip codes with 10 or 15 houses where the median price is lower over the last year?

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-11-29 10:33:30

DebtDonkey

Cedar Key, FL Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/cedar-key-fl/market-trends/

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-11-28 10:49:36

“Toronto debt adviser Scott Terrio said a 40 per cent surge in home equity lines of credit since 2011 has helped mask a credit crisis created by consumers who tap their home equity to pay their bills.”

“Debt advisor”. Bahahahahahaha … the best debt advisor would be the guy who tells his clients to get - and to stay - out of debt.

Moving on …

“‘The insolvency business is cyclical, and the last five-year peak was in 2009,’ said Terrio. ‘We’re now into the eighth year of a 5-year cycle because of people’s equity in their homes and low interest rates.’ ‘I think 2018 is going to be a scary year,’ said Douglas Hoyes, an insolvency trustee in Toronto.”

“Cyclical” as in “there is no learning curve”. Ignorant pukes, every one of them.

“Terrio and Hoyes both said they have seen a chill in recent months from banks and other lenders looking to cut the riskiest clients from their balance sheets before a crisis hits.”

Check.

“Hoyes said many lenders check credit scores quarterly to see which clients are overextended – and then raise interest rates or deny a request for more HELOC money in a bid to drive the riskiest clients elsewhere.”

Bahahahahahaha … F*ck ‘em if they can’t take a joke.

“‘That’s how lenders de-risk themselves … they don’t want to tip you over the edge but would kind of like to get rid of you as a client,’ said Hoyes.”

Next stop for these ignorant pukes: Payday lenders.

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-11-28 14:04:50

who tap their home equity to pay their bills.”

Bet none of them pay off their student loans then default or go BK…

 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-11-28 10:57:22

“Mr Church says that In November last year 56% of those polled were expecting prices to rise in the next six months. In November 2017 that figure had dropped to 18%. ‘This has been the trend for sometime now, and it’s clearly a reflection of these artificial lending restrictions - so the Reserve Bank should be taking steps sooner rather than later to relax its loan-to-value ratios to ensure the engineered slowdown in the housing market doesn’t turn into an out-of-control slump.’”

“Engineered slowdown”.

Bahahahahahaha.

Jokes that write themselves.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-28 11:12:14

It was engineered. And in Canada too. They are putting more new restrictions up in January. Meanwhile here in the US almost nothing is being done.

‘clearly a reflection of these artificial lending restrictions’

What a strange thing to say.

Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-11-28 11:21:42

I thought it odd as well. As much to say that the lender or regulator had no natural right to place any restrictions on amounts borrowed.

It’s mania talk.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-11-28 11:22:50

“It was engineered.”

The term “engineered” wasn’t in itself funny to me, nor was the term “slowdown”. What makes them funny is when you put the two terms together.

I think the term “engineered crash” will turn out to be more descriptive.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-11-28 11:30:33

If demand is driven by price increases then what happens to demand when prices decrease?

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Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-11-28 11:45:23

Poof.

 
 
Comment by rms
2017-11-28 13:50:22

“I think the term “engineered crash” will turn out to be more descriptive.”

The NTSB uses, “controlled flight into terrain.”

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Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-11-29 05:29:04

If houses were meant to soar, God would have given them wings.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-28 11:24:50

“Get over it. It’s the new reality.”

Seems like a top candidate for “things you hear just before TSHTF”.

 
Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-11-28 11:26:30

“…sellers are looking to the internet to increase their control over exactly who will purchase their home”

It’s not enough to write a letter anymore. You have to have a history of feeding the squirrels already.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
Comment by tresho
2017-11-28 12:48:25

e USPS Gives The Chinese A ‘Free Ride’ to keep that carfentanyl coming, in plain brown wrappers.

 
Comment by cactus
2017-11-28 18:03:41

crazy huh

 
 
Comment by oxide
2017-11-28 12:17:29

Yesterday there was mention of $80,000 bro-mobiles:

“At the State Fair of Texas this month, Ford is displaying its most expensive pickup yet: The F-Series Super Duty Limited, a luxury heavy-duty truck with a starting price of $80,835. It has custom two-tone leather seats, a heated steering wheel wrapped in hand-stitched leather and high-tech features like a 360-degree camera system that guides drivers when they’re hitching up a trailer.

A fully loaded F-450 — the biggest version of the Super Duty — will top out at $94,455. It’s capable of towing an Air Force F-35 fighter plane, but it also has massaging seats.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/american-truck-buyers-want-luxury-features-2017-10

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-11-28 12:34:45

Nothing like hauling the DonkeyCart in style.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-28 12:35:36

Lots of people want lots of things. The question is how can enough people afford it to justify making it?

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-11-28 12:44:38

“The question is how can enough people afford it to justify making it?”

It ain’t just about price.

Connect the “gotta have” factor with the Dotted Line Special and - presto! - it is a done deal.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-28 13:05:08

Connect the “gotta have” factor with the Dotted Line Special and - presto! - it is a done deal.

Well…once you add in some Federal Reserve free money assistance to help keep that monthly payment down. Otherwise the Dotted Line Special might not be enough.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-28 13:41:05

A 6 year, 4%, $80,000 loan is over $1200 a month.

I expect them to sell plenty of these luxobarges, even though almost no one can afford them.

 
Comment by Karen
2017-11-28 15:21:11

Well…once you add in some Federal Reserve free money assistance to help keep that monthly payment down. Otherwise the Dotted Line Special might not be enough.

Don’t forget about the fraud that is fractional-reserve banking. That predated the Fed, and is every bit as nefarious (and could never exist if the government didn’t allow for it.) It allows commercial banks themselves to create money out of thin air.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-28 15:30:12

I don’t know about all the car companies but at least at some of them the dotted line special is 0% just to move the iron.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-28 18:15:30

“A 6 year, 4%, $80,000 loan is over $1200 a month.”

Try 8 years, and rolling the negative equity from the last vehicle into the loan. Nothing to see here…

 
 
 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2017-11-28 12:44:01

That sounds like a product for the hedge fund guy trying to pose as a blue-collar, working-class man.

Those people I know who drive pickup trucks for real would never have a seat massager.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-28 13:06:10

Those people I know who drive pickup trucks for real would never have a seat massager.

Maybe. Once they meet Mr. B lots of people need lots of things.

 
 
Comment by rms
2017-11-28 13:56:04

“The F-Series Super Duty Limited, a luxury heavy-duty truck…”

aka “2017 Ford F-450 King Ranch” <— Search

Comment by jeff
2017-11-28 16:05:40

I like this one it’s red just like my long ago paid off 2004 F250

Used 2017 Ford F450 4×4 Crew Cab Platinum

$126,980

https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/2017/Ford/F450

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-28 16:34:29

Hahah…and it’s used. So apparently these things are Ferraris now. You get in tight with the dealer so you can get on the list and then flip it as soon as you get it.

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Comment by junior_kai
2017-11-28 14:13:14

Towing an F-35, lol! Yeah, that happens all the time - and you can do it while getting a massage. I seriously love this. Guy-dude-bro-brahs livin’ large courtesy of the bubblicious Yellenomics. Where would we be without the (((fed)))?

 
Comment by tango_uniform
2017-11-28 17:04:56

All I can say is that the massage better come with a “happy ending” for that price.

I can’t fathom such a contraption in a pickup. They ride rough enough already. I get a good massage just driving my old Saab over the rough LA city streets…

 
Comment by Neuromance
2017-11-28 17:27:40

I remember back in the mid-2000s, International put out the CXT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_XT

So you can go bigger.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2017-11-28 12:21:26

Today’s irony:

This Old House Magazine is holding a reader contest for Best Kitchen Remodel. The prize: $250 meal plan from Hello Fresh or Blue Apron.

:roll: :roll: That’s what happens when you put a women in charge of a construction magazine.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-28 18:30:11

“Blue Apron”

LOL.

“Blue Apron Can’t Find The Recipe For Profits, May Be Headed For Major Events In Next 12 Months”

“Failing Financial Metrics

The heart of Blue Apron’s problem is that it loses money on every customer. The company does not disclose a detailed breakdown. However the aggregate numbers give us some estimates.”

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4128115-blue-apron-find-recipe-profits-may-headed-major-events-next-12-months

Comment by California Renter
2017-11-28 19:47:41

It’s the Tesla of food

 
 
 
Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2017-11-28 13:15:12

Drove from DC area to Florida for the Turkey day.

So many dead cars on the side of the road. In the past I’ve taken that to mean bad economic times, as maintenance is deferred or older vehicles being driven.

Anyone else notice this over the holiday?

Comment by steadykat
2017-11-28 13:59:39

During the 70s recession my father would constantly point out the same fairly nice, newer autos being driven around town with dents and/or scrapes. His belief was that the drivers didn’t have the funds to cover the insurance deductible and therefore they couldn’t afford the fix.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-11-28 14:34:14

We have dents and scrapes in our cars. We don’t fix them because we plan to drive the cars into the ground and don’t give a sh*t.

The average age of cars on the road continues to rise…in 2016 was at an all-time high of 11.6 years. Could be a sign of stress, or could be a sign of cars lasting longer.

Given how steady the increases were (increased every year since 1995 except 2, when the number stayed the same year on year), I would say cars are lasting longer.

However, that’s an average–and somewhat surprising since new car sales have been so strong (which should bring the number down)

I’d be interested in the proportion of cars over, say, 25 years old, that are still on the road–those are the ones that are worth little more than scrap, and apt to be left on the side of the road when they die.

Comment by MIke in Carlsbad
2017-11-28 23:53:33

considering all the new cars these days are turbo 4 cylinders can you blame people for keeping their old cars. I’ll take a 6 or 8 cylinder any day of the week. Hydrolic steering vs the new electric garbage. I also enjoy a manual transmission, over the rubber band CVT junk they make today.. gasp I’d even settle for a regular automatic which is becoming harder to find. New cars are trash and a placeholder until electric cars with no transmssions, low maintence, and instant torque take over. Only a fool would buy a 2016-2025 vehicle.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-29 11:28:00

IMO new cars are pretty good, including 4 cylinders. But not good enough once people figure out that electric cars are almost maintenance free in comparison. But we’ll see about the price comparison once all the true costs of electric are in the purchase price with no subsidies.

 
Comment by BearCat
2017-11-29 15:05:14

Electrics still need things like new tires, brake jobs, cooling system repairs, and such which aren’t peanuts, to put it nicer (I just had to get new tires)

Also, I wouldn’t be surprised to see things like motor and module replacements. I wouldn’t buy an electric Jaguar, since IIRC Jags were infamous for poor electrical systems…

Also, the true price difference between EV’s and ICE is substantial — my guess is that something like the Mazda CX3 is nicer than the Bolt, but it’s A LOT cheaper, and gets pretty good gas mileage.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-30 14:34:55

New cars are trash and a placeholder until electric cars with no transmssions, low maintence, and instant torque take over. Only a fool would buy a 2016-2025 vehicle

+1

This is why I am waiting for a new vehicle and keep riding my electric bike, which is actually quite fun.

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2017-11-28 14:55:27

I see that in my nabe almost every day. Strangely enough, it’s the cars that tailgate or pass me on the right that seem most likely to have a dent. I’ve seen some real beaters around, real beaten up, dirty. And the darker colder weather is really bringing out the busted headlights and the worn-out serpentine belts.

Comment by taxpayers
2017-11-28 16:59:26

serpentine”? Sounds like mansplaining to me

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Comment by oxide
2017-11-28 17:58:17

Serpentine belt = timing belt = accessory belt. Cars used to have a separate belt to turn the gears for each function. Later on they combined it all into a single belt which snaked around multiple gear wheels to run multiple functions, hence the name serpentine. If you hear a car squeal or chirp on a cold startup or going around a corner in winter, then the belt is either worn or slipping.

That’s how several guy friends mansplained it to me.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-28 18:46:12

“Serpentine belt = timing belt = accessory belt.”

Not exactly, young lady.

“Serpentine belt = fan and accessory belt.”

Timing belt (used to be timing chain) = synchronizes camshaft and crankshaft so that the valves are on time when they open and close.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-28 19:43:38

“Serpentine belt = fan and accessory belt.”

I think all radiator fans are electric these days.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-28 22:13:30

“I think all radiator fans are electric these days.”

Nope, not on trucks. They have a belt run fan clutch.

 
Comment by tresho
2017-11-29 02:31:32

If you hear a car squeal or chirp on a cold startup or going around a corner in winter, then the belt is either worn or slipping.
If you start your car, which then emits a squeal that turns into a loud scream, following by a loud BANG and a cloud of brown smoke, your serpentine belt may have just disintegrated. Happened to me one winter’s morning.

 
Comment by oxide
2017-11-29 06:44:36

I know this may come to a shock to you guys, but there are people who never had any interest in the finer points of vehicles or maintaining them. Did the dealer rip me off for repairs over the years? Probably. Do I care? Not really. I want a reliable ride and AAA and I pay money so I don’t have to deal with it.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-29 11:30:38

I know this may come to a shock to you guys, but there are people who never had any interest in the finer points of vehicles or maintaining them.

It IS kind of funny that this part of the conversation started with a reference to mansplaining :-). Like Bill Cosby said about what happens when you are about to get into a car accident…”first you say it, then you do it”.

 
Comment by tresho
2017-11-29 15:01:13

Do I care? Not really…. I don’t have to deal with it.
Good for you. Keep on trucking. And good luck!

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2017-11-30 14:40:28

I want a reliable ride and AAA and I pay money so I don’t have to deal with it.

I think you’re the target for this type of car subscription service:

https://jalopnik.com/volvos-car-subscription-program-starts-at-600-and-seem-1820854228

 
 
 
Comment by rms
2017-11-28 19:36:09

“During the 70s recession my father would constantly point out the same fairly nice, newer autos being driven around town with dents and/or scrapes. His belief was that the drivers didn’t have the funds to cover the insurance deductible and therefore they couldn’t afford the fix.”

Your dad was right… about me anyway. The seventy’s recession was really tough with interest rates well about 16%. Can’t imagine living through a repeat of those years; once was enough!

 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-11-28 14:45:28

Thems ain’t dead cars, thems living quarters.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-28 14:51:07

Nope, not really. And you see a lot of beaters on the road here in the Centennial State. If someone is on the side of the road, there is usually a State Troopers’ car, lights flashing, parked right behind him.

 
Comment by jeff
2017-11-28 15:47:17

“So many dead cars on the side of the road.”

“Cash For Clunkers” Graveyard

 
Comment by taxpayers
2017-11-28 16:55:34

hope you started around midnight

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-11-28 15:46:37

Realtors are liars.

Comment by Big V
2017-11-28 17:18:35

True.

 
 
Comment by cactus
2017-11-28 16:14:34

Amazon and Ebay send money to China so they buy sweet RE on the coast of the USA and the post office pays for the shipping

International postage rates for incoming packages are set by a U.N. agency called the United Postal Union (UPU). This is a body that was established in 1874 — subsequently being absorbed into the U.N. — that is currently made up of 192 countries which meets every four years to revise its policy and set new terminal fees, with each country getting one vote a piece. While the voting system of the UPU is egalitarian, the shipping rates that it sets are not. According to Nancy Sparks of FedEx Express (via eCommerceBytes.com), the rate structure of the UPU is a system where the “haves pay the have-nots.” Essentially, countries that it deems to be poorer or less developed pay less for shipping to countries that are categorized as being richer. So someone shipping from, say, China, will pay significantly less to ship to a country like the U.S. than an American shipper will pay to send that same package to China.

Comment by taxpayers
2017-11-28 16:57:20

don’t mess w e packets from gina
can they fit a pickup into one?

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-28 17:58:25

Well, I left Kentucky back in ninety nine
An’ went to China workin’ on a ’sembly line
The first year they had me puttin’ wheels on pickup trucks
Every day I’d watch them beauties roll by
And sometimes I’d hang my head and cry
‘Cause I always wanted me one that was long and black.
One day I devised myself a plan
That should be the envy of most any man
I’d sneak it out of there in a ePacket in my hand
Now gettin’ caught meant gettin’ fired
But I figured I’d have it all by the time I retired
I’d have me a car worth at least a hundred grand.
I’d get it one piece at a time
And it wouldn’t cost me a dime
You’ll know it’s me when I come through your town
I’m gonna ride around in style
I’m gonna drive everybody wild
‘Cause I’ll have the only one there is around.
So the very next day when I punched in
With my wad of ePackets and with help from my friends
I left that day with a ePacket full of gears
I’ve never considered myself a thief
But GM wouldn’t miss just one little piece
Especially if I strung it out over several years.
The first day I got me a fuel pump
And the next day I got me an engine and a trunk
Then I got me a transmission and all the chrome
The little things I could get in my ePacket
Like nuts, an’ bolts, and all four shocks
But the big stuff we snuck out in my buddy’s shipping container.
Now, up to now my plan went all right
‘Til we tried to put it all together one night
And that’s when we noticed that something was definitely wrong.
The transmission was an oh three
And the motor turned out to be a one three
And when we tried to put in the bolts all the holes were gone.
So we drilled it out so that it would fit
And with a little bit of help with an adapter kit
We had that engine runnin’ just like a song
Now the headlight’ was another sight
We had two on the left and one on the right
But when we pulled out the switch all three of ‘em come on.
The back end looked kinda funny too
But we put it together and when we got through
Well, that’s when we noticed that we had no tailgate
About that time my wife walked out
And I could see in her eyes that she had her doubts
But she opened the door and said “Honey, take me for a spin.”
So we drove up town just to get the tags
And I headed her right on down main drag
I could hear everybody laughin’ for blocks around
But up there at the court house they didn’t laugh
‘Cause to type it up it took the whole staff
And when they got through the title weighed sixty pounds.
I got it one piece at a time
And it wouldn’t cost me a dime
You’ll know it’s me when I come through your town
I’m gonna ride around in style
I’m gonna drive everybody wild
‘Cause I’ll have the only one there is around.
Ugh! Yeah, RED RYDER
This is the COTTON MOUTH
In the PSYCHO-BILLY CADILLAC Come on
Huh, This is the COTTON MOUTH
And negatory on the cost of this mow-chine there RED RYDER
You might say I went right up to the factory
And picked it up, it’s cheaper that way
Ugh!, what model is it?
Well, It’s a ‘99, ‘00, ‘01, ‘02, ‘03, ‘04, ‘05, ‘06
‘07, ‘08′ 09′ automobile
It’s a ‘10, ‘11, ‘12, ‘13, ‘14, ‘15, ‘16, ‘17
‘18, ‘19, ‘20 automobile.

 
 
 
Comment by Big V
2017-11-28 17:15:19

This is Big V reporting from Arizona. A coworker informed me today that they are running out of land. Alert. Arizona is running out of land. Over and out.

Comment by scdave
2017-11-28 17:40:42

Arizona ?? I thought you purchased a place in Texas ??

 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-11-28 18:50:37

If I recall correctly, in many of the Western states the largest landowner is the U.S. Government.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-28 22:14:57

And they only sell to large developers when they could actually make more money selling individual lots to individual people. The whole thing’s a scam.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-29 11:32:57

And in the meantime make it difficult for the locals to use the unused land they way they have been using it since the beginning of modern civilization. And then wonder why the rubes always vote “against their interests” for smaller government.

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Comment by MWR
2017-11-28 17:22:49

There have been many claims about CA, both rich and poor. He is one other study about poverty by state.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/states-where-poverty-is-worse-than-you-think/ss-BBFs9VV?li=BBnb7Kz#image=14

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-11-28 17:54:56

Hmmm…. CA the highest poverty rate in the nation. What a rare observation.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-11-28 17:33:42

Redmond, OR Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/redmond-or/market-trends/

 
Comment by Rental Watch
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-11-28 18:35:23

According to the article 2006 was the last time it was raised, precipitating the collapse.

Nice!

 
 
Comment by Karen
2017-11-28 18:54:07

What life is like inside Saudi Arabia’s ‘5-star prison’ — the Ritz-Carlton where some of the kingdom’s richest and most powerful elites are being held.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-life-is-like-inside-saudi-arabias-5-star-prison-%E2%80%94-the-ritz-carlton-where-some-of-the-kingdoms-richest-and-most-powerful-elites-are-being-held/ss-BBFP7nD?li=BBnb7Kz#image=1

“Since November 4, no one has been allowed into the Ritz-Carlton without official permission.”

“Among the “guests” now are more than 200 people accused of abuse of power, corruption, and money laundering.”

“Officials said 4% of the accused say they will take their cases to court, but 95% are willing to make a deal, which would most likely result in large sums of money exchanged for freedom.”

President Donald Trump stayed at the Ritz-Carlton during his trip to Saudi Arabia earlier this year — and the kingdom put his face on the side of the hotel.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-11-28 19:00:08

Are you still elite if you hang upside-down by your feet all day? I wonder if the Ritz is giving them points for their stay?

Comment by In Colorado
2017-11-28 19:37:15

Officials said 4% of the accused say they will take their cases to court, but 95% are willing to make a deal, which would most likely result in large sums of money exchanged for freedom

Sounds like a power grab to me, as opposed to true reformation. All those who are expecting Saudi Arabia to morph into a nice feminist utopia are going to be disappointed.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-29 11:36:12

I wonder if the Ritz is giving them points for their stay?

Now you’ve got me curious at what point the corporation no longer considers it a standard stay? :-) Guess it depends on who pays/writes off the bill.

Comment by Karen
2017-11-29 12:23:00

The Saudi government closed the hotel to outsiders and turned it into a prison. No one enters without permission. The entire hotel is empty except for the 200 prisoners and their lawyers who visit them to discuss strategy. I assume the regime rented the whole thing and therefore they are getting the points :)

Coffee is for closers, and Ritz rewards points are for members of the ruling party still in good standing.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-29 12:58:27

OK, so basically the entire property has been confiscated and is no longer owned by the hotel chain.

 
Comment by rms
2017-11-29 13:10:12

Nationalizing buildings, plants, wells and property is a third world sport.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-11-28 19:02:06

Sausalito, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/sausalito-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by sod
2017-11-28 19:11:21

Check out this local area turd:

http://u.zillow.com/pjqdz/

The price history is entertaining.

Comment by palmetto
2017-11-28 20:36:14

Makes me sick to my stomach.

 
Comment by Bubblebot
2017-11-28 20:54:15

“The price history is entertaining.”

Looks like they overpaid by about $25K when they bought it in 2009
for $70k.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-11-28 22:19:18

A $300k shotgun shack in South Carolina? Hooboy, this bubble stretches far and wide…

 
Comment by jeff
2017-11-28 22:50:01

Price/sqft
$331

Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-11-29 05:31:34

But the ad says there is enough land that you could put a second story on it.

 
 
 
Comment by jeff
2017-11-28 20:33:50

Talking Heads - Swamp (1983)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZuWllLXFNk

“Princeton could use a guy like Joel”

 
Comment by MIke in Carlsbad
2017-11-28 22:43:42

“Hoyes said many lenders check credit scores quarterly to see which clients are overextended – and then raise interest rates or deny a request for more HELOC money in a bid to drive the riskiest clients elsewhere. ‘That’s how lenders de-risk themselves … they don’t want to tip you over the edge but would kind of like to get rid of you as a client,’ said Hoyes.”

I don’t understand this, the bank can just kick it to Fannie and Freddie and let the taxpayers take on the risk of default…. oh yea, this was a Canadian article, the banks actually have to evaluate risk because they have skin in the game.

The US is forked and will continue to be unless serious lending reform happens under The Great Disruptor.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-11-29 04:00:58

“I don’t understand this, the bank can just kick it to Fannie and Freddie and let the taxpayers take on the risk of default…”

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

 
Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-11-29 04:15:38

I think it is still too early for a real hero.

Serious reform is unlikely until after crash & burn. We had a fender bender and then it was right back on the races.

 
 
Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-11-29 06:07:48

Mount Agung in Bali might be getting ready to blow.

Scientist warn that this could cause “volcanic winter” and “global warming” simultaneously.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-11-29 07:14:23

Perhaps … perhaps this guy may end up being wrong and perhaps mankind will be saved after all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqIt93dDG1M

 
Comment by oxide
2017-11-29 07:22:13

I’m surprised this didn’t make a bigger splash in the headlines. But…Matt Lauer…

Worst case scenario looks like a little global cooling for a year or so. Whew, I was expecting “The Road” (a movie I refuse to watch, but the general idea is frightening enough).

Comment by rms
2017-11-29 07:56:55

“But…Matt Lauer…”

I read somewhere about a rivalry between Ann Curry and Matt Lauer that didn’t end well.

Comment by Karen
2017-11-29 12:27:21

“Rivalry”

Is that bro code for harassment and abuse of power?

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Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-29 13:01:36

There are lots of rivalries near the top of business hierarchies. Anyone who wants to be an equal player in that arena shouldn’t be surprised by that. Some sadistic big bosses even like to encourage it…

 
Comment by rms
2017-11-29 13:13:34

“Is that bro code for harassment and abuse of power?”

I dunno. It was something I read awhile back. Not sure why I remembered it except that I liked Ann Curry’s style.

 
Comment by Karen
2017-11-29 14:19:16

I’m going to name you two Dumb and Dumber.

 
Comment by rms
2017-11-30 01:22:36

“I’m going to name you two Dumb and Dumber.”

I queried my wife about Matt Lauer… wow, she’s fired-up just like you! I guess Matt has earned his shame and then some.

 
Comment by Karen
2017-11-30 13:12:03

Yeah, I was a little bit harsh there, but you guys seem clueless. He’s a scumbag like all the others https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/today-staffers-who-didnt-flirt-with-matt-lauer-were-not-considered-good-colleagues-source/ar-BBFYfyk?li=BBnb2gh

I don’t know whether he harassed Curry or not, but I’d bet she refused to go along with the little boys’ club and was targeted for this.

It’s only a “rivalry” if it’s a contest between two fairly-matched individuals. You wouldn’t put a featherweight in the ring with a heavyweight and call that a ‘rivalry’. Lauer was the power player and she was a nobody compared to him.

Many of us have experienced this kind of ganging-up, and we know exactly what the deal is. The boyz are very good at making it look like we just couldn’t cut it, or couldn’t handle the pressure. A gang-rape is not a fair fight, so to speak.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-11-30 15:03:31

OK. My point was that guys do it to each other. All. The. Time. Doesn’t make it right. But it does mean that a woman who wants to compete in the boys club as true equals has to deal with it and find a way to succeed in spite of it. Just like the guys.

 
 
 
 
 
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