The Nature Of The Adjustment To Come
A report from Wharton. “St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank president James Bullard joined Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel recently, along with Jeremy Schwartz, research director at WisdomTree, for a wide-ranging conversation about the future of interest rates, inflation, the state of the economy, overall monetary policy, the possible over-valuation of stock prices — and more.”
“Siegel: You mentioned Fed staff, and there are some very, very good people there. Then again, of course you could say virtually no one really foresaw the financial crisis. There are a number of people who said, ‘Are they the people you always want to listen to? Or do you want to have some independence and hear some other voices that might think differently in terms of what’s going to happen to the economy?’ How do you feel about that? I mean, would it be more captive than someone like Bernanke to the Fed staff?”
“Bullard: I’ll just give you my own take on the monetary policy debate. I say it’s a global debate that goes on 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. And so you’re getting input from all kinds of corners of the globe, and certainly from financial markets, the committee itself, the staff itself. But it’s not like it’s in a closed room where you’re not listening to the rest of the world.”
“You don’t really have to have a perfect alignment of backgrounds in order to get all of that input from all around the world. And I think we do that in some respects. So if you think about the run up to the financial crisis, it’s true that we did not predict the financial crisis, but I think there is some revisionist history that goes on because the housing bubble was a big topic of discussion for several years before it actually came to an abrupt end. And many people were talking about it, both inside and outside financial markets, and in academia.”
From the Australian Financial Review. “The Reserve Bank of Australia should get ahead of the US Federal Reserve, widely expected to increase rates next month for the third time this year, and normalise official interest rates before the pain of adjustment becomes worse, says former board member Warwick McKibbin.”
“Likening ongoing delays in raising the official cash rate from its emergency lows with postponing the closure of a doomed steel mill or car factory – the longer you wait the more it hurts younger workers when it does happen – Professor McKibbin says the central bank should clearly explain to business and households why 1.5 per cent is no longer appropriate.”
“Anticipating critics of normalisation – which may see the cash rate pushed towards 3.5 per cent – and who argue rate hikes will crunch heavily indebted households and cause an economic slump, Professor McKibbin said: ‘If we have become that vulnerable, do it now, not in a year when it’ll be much bigger. Let’s have a mild bump now rather than a big one later,’ he said, though he concedes the housing debt bubble is now so advanced that it is already too late for some households that have over-borrowed.”
“‘Given the long era of low interest rates since 2012 a greater concern should be on “overall macro-economic stability and asset prices,’ Professor McKibbin said. ‘I would make it clear what the view of the bank is on the nature of the adjustment to come and that it’s time for rates to move to a more normal level. It’s better to precede the Fed than follow the Fed. The worst place for a central bank is to appear to be in a state of complete chaos; where rates might go up or down. You don’t want that percolating out.’”
From the Siuslaw News in Oregon. “Florence’s current rental crisis began in earnest in the mid-2000s, though nobody seemed to notice. In fact, it was celebrated. This was the era of housing as quick investment. House flipping was the buzz phrase, with cable TV chock full of shows extolling the opportunities from the practice. Housing was always a safe bet.”
“‘You could buy a home in Florence for $120,000,’ Coastal Property Management co-owner Barry Nivilinszky said. ‘They were selling for $180,000. For investment purposes, the value would increase by 15 percent within a year. So, people were buying on the premise of letting it grow and reselling. And so, all of these homes were bought at top dollar.’”
“Nivilinszky started his business in 2004, right in the middle of that boom. He’s seen the rise, fall and rise again of the rental industry in Florence. Now he’s anticipating another fall. ‘We’re in the next housing bubble,’ he said. ‘But the bubble is not working for us today.’”
“Why the bubble is not working for Florence is a complicated story, and many financial experts believe it’s a global problem. One-bedroom homes in Australia are selling for $3 million while dilapidated houses in California run for $600,000 or more. As the prices go up, the working poor struggle to find affordable housing, with some workers in Florence resorting to living in their cars. ‘Houses here have finally started appreciating considerably,’ Nivilinszky said. ‘Owners are going, ‘Huh, I can finally get my money back and be done with it.’ That’s the attitude.’”
“Florence, along with the rest of the world, is experiencing a housing bubble. ‘They’re getting into the $250,000 range,’ said Dana Rodet, owner of Rodet Construction Co., Inc. ‘And they’re selling. I just had a friend put their home up for sale and the same day they had four offers. They sold it with a 15-day turnaround, paid with cash. There was another person who sold in a week. Unless something is so overpriced that it sits on the market for a while, homes are going pretty damn quick.’”
“Because current homes are selling so rapidly, retirees are turning to building their own homes. ‘Everybody is busy,’ Rodet said about the current state of construction. ‘You could be a lousy contractor and still be busy. There are a lot of new homes being built.’”
“Retirees are able to afford building homes because of another aspect of the current housing bubble. ‘People are moving here from out of state or out of town. We still have good prices for real estate for those who are coming in from California. I don’t know when the last time you visited California, but I don’t know if you can find a place for less than $650,000,’ Rodet said.”
“He said that a family member recently purchased a home in Costa Mesa that was built in the 1950s and hadn’t been upgraded since. ‘There was nothing new in there, and they paid $625,000,’ Rodet said.”
“People flip their house in California, take the cash, and buy or build a home to their liking in Florence. Building is where Dan Lofy of Lofy Construction comes in. He’s been in the thick of building new homes for out-of-towners, and the homes he’s building are expensive. ‘In 2008, the standard figure to build a home was about $135,000 to $155,000,’ he said. ‘The lowest you can get now is around $175,000, and that would be a terrible house.’”
“While the debate goes on in the U.S., globally countries are officially calling this a bubble — and there are signs that it’s bursting. In Australia, the housing market had seen extreme rises in prices. In two separate articles this month, the Daily Mail reported a ‘tiny’ one bedroom home in Melbourne hit the market for a ‘whopping’ $2.2 million, after the owners bought it for $875,000. The Daily Mail also reported that, ‘Australia’s ‘golden housing years’ are officially over with a full-blown crash expected if rates increase too quickly or not enough. In the U.S., the housing crisis is spreading coast to coast.”
“You don’t really have to have a perfect alignment of backgrounds in order to get all of that input from all around the world. And I think we do that in some respects. So if you think about the run up to the financial crisis, it’s true that we did not predict the financial crisis, but I think there is some revisionist history that goes on because the housing bubble was a big topic of discussion for several years before it actually came to an abrupt end. And many people were talking about it, both inside and outside financial markets, and in academia.”
I’ve said for years that we have to consider the possibility that the central bankers are a bunch of idiots.
bernake said there was no bubble. these folks a baffoons. all they do is print money.
They don’t print money so much as the lend it into existence. There’s a difference.
Commercial banks lend money into existence through the magic of fractional reserve banking. The Fed actually creates money and then uses it to buy things. Of course it’s all digital, but the effect is the same.
If the Fed doesn’t lend money to the banks to prime this pump why is there a “discount rate”?
overnight rate
FED buying things like mortgages and treasuries that’s new
I never said banks didn’t borrow from the Fed?
But the Federal Reserve doesn’t only lend money to others. They buy assets with digital money (accounting entries) they created out of thin air.
And the second point I was making is that commercial banks themselves are legally allowed to create money that doesn’t exist (fractional reserve banking) and lend it out to others. This predates the existence of the Federal Reserve, and its why there were booms and busts before the Fed existed.
We all tend to forget about this.
“But the Federal Reserve doesn’t only lend money to others. They buy assets with digital money (accounting entries) they created out of thin air.”
+1 True.
“Central banks have been supporting share prices”
http://www.economist.com/node/18178399
“I think there is some revisionist history that goes on because the housing bubble was a big topic of discussion for several years before it actually came to an abrupt end”.
Ben Bernanke (was wrong):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QpD64GUoXw
Talk about revisionist history. No one who mattered talked about the housing bubble, least of all the Fed, because the economy depended upon denying it. And then those people went on to pen grotesquely self-serving memoirs.
I’ve got a question for Mr. Bullard, and it’s a good one: is the Fed talking about the current, “echo” bubble?
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/29/fed-chair-janet-yellen-rates-have-to-raise-to-prevent-boom-bust-economy.html
“keeping consistent with a labor market that is nearing full employment”
Lying, or completely out of touch with reality? More likely both.
I know someone who was thinking that maybe it was time to change employers. He applied for several Fortune 500 management jobs for which he thought he was a perfect fit. One even had a foreign language requirement which he felt that few in his field would cover but he did. Much to his bewilderment, no one has called him back. NO ONE.
If unemployment is really as low as the liars are saying, he would have been snapped up.
I’ve also mentioned my former colleagues, who were riffed from software engineer jobs three months ago. A few still haven’t been able to get an offer, and a few others had to settle for short term, no benefits contract jobs.
Full employment my …
Theres definitely some weirdness going on in the labor market. I was getting tired of my swampy company so I applied for a position with a research facility, the premier one of its class in the world. First few interviews go great, figured I would get an offer - nothing. Get an email a few months later saying thanks but you didnt make the cut. I just saw the job posting I applied for reposted last week, which got me curious. Perhaps they want someone a little more junior, but having the position staffed vs. keeping it empty for the perfect candidate is a puzzle.
No big, my swampy company now lets me work from home and gave me a raise in the interim.
They want H1B but first have to make a attempt to find a qualified American that’s how it works. Those openings are fake. This is VERY COMMON we do it all the time. I remember when someone at work recommended a qualified person for a job opening and was quickly told by HR it was .. well see above I forget their exact words.
we have been ratted out so bad its not funny anymore.
He applied for several Fortune 500 management jobs for which he thought he was a perfect fit. One even had a foreign language requirement which he felt that few in his field would cover but he did. Much to his bewilderment, no one has called him back. NO ONE.
Where did he hear about the jobs and how did he apply? The new rules of the game are unless you know somebody there and are applying through them you will get nowhere. The online listings (and sometimes even the open reqs) are just to satisfy the HR/legal requirements.
they control your life
as recently as the 60’s no one cared about the Fed.
seems like they are doing a good job of enriching themselves via the stock market. Then they will hire u to do the sh@t work and pay u nothing.
as recently as the 60’s no one cared about the Fed.
Hmmm. Wonder what happened right after the 60s?
The 70s
“I’ve said for years that we have to consider the possibility that the central bankers are a bunch of idiots.”
Or thieving lying crooks. We’re both right.
This Oregon article is very interesting and appears to be part of a series:
‘many financial experts believe it’s a global problem. One-bedroom homes in Australia are selling for $3 million while dilapidated houses in California run for $600,000 or more…Retirees are able to afford building homes because of another aspect of the current housing bubble. ‘People are moving here from out of state or out of town. We still have good prices for real estate for those who are coming in from California. I don’t know when the last time you visited California, but I don’t know if you can find a place for less than $650,000,’ Rodet said.’
‘He said that a family member recently purchased a home in Costa Mesa that was built in the 1950s and hadn’t been upgraded since. ‘There was nothing new in there, and they paid $625,000,’ Rodet said.’
‘People flip their house in California, take the cash, and buy or build a home to their liking in Florence. Building is where Dan Lofy of Lofy Construction comes in. He’s been in the thick of building new homes for out-of-towners, and the homes he’s building are expensive. ‘In 2008, the standard figure to build a home was about $135,000 to $155,000,’ he said. ‘The lowest you can get now is around $175,000, and that would be a terrible house.’
‘While the debate goes on in the U.S., globally countries are officially calling this a bubble — and there are signs that it’s bursting.’
California equity locusts? Check.
It’s not just the Fed that is blind. It’s the big media. Anybody should know 600k for some old dump is way too much. And you have to buy the bank one too if you borrow.
‘In 2008, the standard figure to build a home was about $135,000 to $155,000,’
That’s about right… Maybe a little heavy. Given the fact materials today are lower by 5-10%, you have to ask yourself what is going on.
Once again we see that builders are marking up more because they are busy. “In the Thick” busy. He didn’t mention what he was charging in 2012.
Again your numbers are wrong HA - you must enjoy making stuff up.
OSB sheets are almost $20 each now - they were under $10 five years ago. And that’s what they use to build new homes and commercial buildings up to five stories in my area.
Whoh, real information from HA/MB.
Here are some Cheetos:
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/LM28e07z8ezeXucugT4UPVs0EV9AnICWPlhWTnsRsqlX1FPOfVwd4tyP9w_XDG44MfCJ9cAJQkERFHL-0sohteHuaK-B3aYugYDh33e4t48BxL66GIquUQJxxmZEPXSlogilDP2v
Sounds like you need to find a new supplier.
/100 bd ‘ dimensional lumber is 13% lower today than 2008
/CYD concrete 19% lower today than 2008
/cube CMU’s are 7% lower today than 2008
/100 structural sheet is 12% lower today than 2008
/1000 fasteners is 19% lower today than 2008
/ton deformed bar is 18% lower today than 2008
/Sika and equal products are 7% lower today than 2008
Today’s Beige Book from the Fed in Cleveland:
“One builder reported that he can no longer build a starter home for less than $200,000.”
“can no longer” or “refuses to”?? This subject deserves far more public discussion than it ever gets.
A comment on zerohedge re: the above:
“OSB sheets are almost $20 each now…”
I look at the forest products price trends from time to time too. OSB is volatile, but right now it is $325 per 1000 ft2.
$10/sheet
Probably a lot higher if you are only building a dog house.
I’m talking about Home Depot prices, as that’s what I see every month or two. OSB was right at $9 a sheet when I re-roofed a garage a few years ago, and now it’s close to $20.
Gotcha
LMFAO
“Can no longer” or “refuses to”?
More likely, “starter home” doesn’t mean what it used to. Starter home used to mean sub-1000 sq ft, linoleum and formica, no garage (carport if you paid extra), single lane driveway.
Now it’s 2000 sq ft, 2 car garage, low-grade pergraniteel, at least 2 baths, etc. The only *new* homes priced as starter levels appear to be 2-bed condos.
I guess starter buyers are buying the same type of homes that were considered starter in the 1950s and 60s — in fact, they are the same exact homes.
Tap dancing DonkeyLogic.
The contractor can hold his ground and put himself right out of business because that’s exactly what he’s doing.
I’m talking about Home Depot prices, as that’s what I see every month or two.
We are talking about commercial construction and you quote us Home Depot prices?
Florence, Oregon is your typical coastal OR/WA town with poor weather and a poor economy, with high unemployment and extremely low wages. It’s a crime what the Fed and the equity locusts have done to the locals. They show up thinking “hey, this is cheap!” and drive prices into the stratosphere when there’s nothing cheap about it as it pertains to what local wages afford. Then you get the people sleeping in their car thing after a while, because the money is just.not.there. when it comes to housing.
I’m sure granny Yellen and Co. will throw back a few highballs from their cozy digs at Jackson Hole while pontificating about their godlike influence and control over global economies, patting each other on the back in the process, but they’ll surely never conceive of the absolute wreckage they’ve made of tens of millions of lives through their criminally irresponsible policies.
they’ll surely never conceive of the absolute wreckage they’ve made of tens of millions of lives through their criminally irresponsible policies.
They can’t help it if “those people” want to waste away out in the sticks instead of coming to town and getting on the gravy train with everyone else they know.
I’m sure the central bankers are well aware of the collateral damage they’ve created, but the alternative looked worse probably an order of magnitude worse. Meanwhile the boomers will continue to retire at a rate of 10,000 each and every day until 2029.
the alternative looked worse probably an order of magnitude worse
It definitely did from their perspective. But my perspective is that if we had taken our medicine in 2009 things would be MUCH better now.
The wanton destruction following a riot can take years to recover possibly decades.
It amazes me that people still want government in charge of life and death decisions on their health care…
********
The City Demolished The Building It Had Just Sold These People — And Doesn’t Want To Pay
Forbes | November 27, 2017 | George Leef
Back in October, 2015, Mr. and Mrs. David Garrett bought some property from New Orleans. The city had owned the property since 1998, when it had acquired the land and building from its tax-delinquent owner, Charles Jett. During the following 17 years, the city let the building (a townhouse) deteriorate. The Garretts purchased the property for just $7,000, intending to refurbish it.
Over the years, New Orleans officials had initiated several code violations against Jett for the bad condition of the townhouse, failing to recognize that the property no longer belonged to him, but to the city. At the time of the sale to the Garretts, the city did not tell them that the building was an immediate safety threat or give them any warnings about it.
On January 29, 2016, New Orleans had a wrecking crew demolish the townhouse. The city had not informed the Garretts of their plan to do so. It had tried to notify Jett, but the property hadn’t been for the last 17 years.
Once the Garretts got over the stunning destruction of their property (in fact, they had just days before paid the 2016 taxes on the it), they wrote a letter to the city, asking for compensation for the loss of their building.
You would be wrong. Instead, the city replied to the letter by sending the owners a bill for $11,000 to cover the cost of having demolished their property.
“It amazes me that people still want government in charge of life and death decisions on their health care…”
It amazes me that it amazes you.
Didn’t the city of NOLA, after Katrina, end up paying some company to haul away all the abandoned, flood-damaged cars? Even though another company had offered to collect them all AND pay the city for each one? (Don’t have time this instant to look for a link.)
you paid-feds gave them 120 billion of YOUR $
“The Daily Mail also reported that, ‘Australia’s ‘golden housing years’ are officially over with a full-blown crash expected if rates increase too quickly or not enough.”
Too quickly or not enough.
Got it.
So how much longer until housing prices (or rents for that matter) in Las Vegas, NV actually start going down?
Predictions? I’m sure this isn’t a good time to buy there, and maybe not even a good time to sign a rental lease there. But I wonder when it will be.
Las Vegas is tourism.
When people feel full of fake cash from the housing bubble, stock market bubble, bitcoin bubble, etc. they head to LV.
The first sign of the bubbles popping they stop fun based discretionary spending.
So - how far away are we from the bubbles popping?
I feel like as long as bitcoin is going up, the bubble is still alive and well.
Plano, TX Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/plano-tx/market-trends/
Another day, another three to four far left liberals/progressives big shots being outed for sexual harrassment, assault assault and rape.
Matt Lauer (D) is the latest. Another “everyone knew but kept it quiet” serial sexual assaulter.
John Conyers (D) used a secret slush fund of taxpayer monies to by off his sexual victims.
Another NPR (D) executive. Al Frankien (D) has more victims.
Etc. Etc. Etc.
But yet the fake legacy media is still 24/7 that Trump is Hitler.
It feels like the wheels are coming off the whole SJW charade.
In a world full of bubbles, who would have guessed this would be the first one to pop.
“It feels like the wheels are coming off the whole SJW charade.”
Swamp draining.
264 claim sexual harassment and sexual assault cases have been secretly paid off using taxpayer funds.
DJT wants a full disclosure.
Democrats are fighting ANY disclosure.
The fake legacy media just tries to ignore the whole situation.
*******
John Conyers’ sexual harassment case could upend the entire political landscape
CNBC - November 27, 2017
Congressman John Conyers’ sexual harassment case has blown the lid off of a big congressional secret.
It turns out 264 claims have been quietly handled by the Congressional Office of Compliance.
If the details of those claims go public, they could turn Capitol Hill upside down.
#UnsealTheDeals
All else equal, I would love all these unsealed.
The only folks who I think should have a say, however, are the victims.
I think the folks who are paying for all of this (including the salaries and expenses of the people involved, both perps and, in most cases, the victims), and not just the settlements, should have a say. That would be the taxpayers.
It sets a bad precedent to have a taxpayer-funded slush fund to cover the bad behaviour of members of Congress and government employees.
The dilemma can be easily solved by revealing only the names of the alleged perps, and not the victims. I get it. Once the victims are revealed, their professional lives are toast. Who wold hire them?
The dilemma can be easily solved by revealing only the names of the alleged perps, and not the victims.
I agree 100%. That means that the settlements wouldn’t be unsealed in their entirety though…context could unwittingly expose the victims. Announcing that ________ settled a sexual harassment claim for $________ in year ______ would be sufficient.
I’m not saying any of them are innocent. Probably about 100% of men are guilty as sin. However, the two of you are advocating serious penalty on the basis of accusation, without even knowing what the accusation is.
All these settlements were agreed with a process where the accuser needed to pay their own legal costs (making it less likely that they would bring a meritless claim), but that the politician used government counsel for free (making it more likely that they would put up a fight–especially if the claim was meritless).
In other words, the fact that settlements were reached at all VERY strongly implies that there was a “there” there.
I’m advocating the shining of light on politicians that entered into such settlements using taxpayer money.
I’m certain that all the politicians will take the same tact as Conyers and claim that the accusations were meritless. Fine. If that’s the case, then the accusers can come forth (or not) to make their case. If they want to.
We are now in a world where the stigma for women standing up is falling away…and like Franken, I would be shocked if the true harassers/abusers of power did not do so habitually. I think we will find that when light is shined on these folks (and they inevitably deny it) that either a) no victims step forward (in which case the disclosure will be a blemish, not political death sentence), or b) victims will step forward, in which case the politicians will be in hot water.
Fine. IMHO, that is better than leaving this stuff under wraps.
You may be right without knowing, but to punish without trial is wrong. I’m not supporting payoffs in this line of thinking.
How is disclosure of a settlement paid for with public funds a punishment?
Perhaps I misunderstood you, but I don’t think so.
I’m not saying any of them are innocent. Probably about 100% of men are guilty as sin.
Glad to hear you say this. I was at Chipotle and overheard some guy talking at the table next to me and it was astounding to hear his ignorance on the matter. He was claiming (with no facts) that 99% of these instances were just made up and a bunch of other mumbo jumbo nonsense. It made me think he subscribed to some “mens’ rights” group or something. I guess because I work in healthcare and am a guy I see some of the crap the female RNs and aides have to put up with and it’s pretty galling.
Especially when those bringing the claims are required to FIRST attend a month of counseling, then sign an NDA, then a month of mediation, then a one-month “cooling off” period….and if they want legal help, they get to pay that out of their own pocket too.
In other words, the folks who got settlements chose to walk a very tough path to get there….truly makes me wonder how many women didn’t even bother.
The way this sexual harassment purge is going may necessitate interim elections to refill half the male-occupied seats in Congress. No heterosexual American male in a position of power is safe from summary dismissal if a former girlfriend wants to settle a score by alleging past sexual harassment.
And it has even gotten Garrison Keillor removed from the air!!!
https://www.mpr.org/press/2017/11/29/statement-from-minnesota-public-radio-regarding-garrison-keillor-and-a-prairie-home-compa
So MPR won’t air him any longer (even repeats), but what about the rest of the country’s public radio stations?
And also another NPR executive in DC - David Sweeney too!
They are eating their own . . .
The end of the Alpha male ..
And I didn’t even consider those alpha males. Except maybe in the lefty journalism/English major world.
I like to think of it as the last days of the Clintonization of America. I was watching the James Brown video “Living In America”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=200&v=c5BL4RNFr58
and had this idea that the 1980s were when the US peaked out as a culture. The exuberance, the defiance, the idea that people could do well and that we were lucky to be here. And then what happened?
Clinton and globalization. Yes, that’s simplistic and of course the Bushes had a lot to do with it, but in a nutshell. The Clintons have led a massive global crime wave that people can’t even begin to fathom.
Anyone who is interested in the many tentacles of the Clinton Foundation and its offshoots can get a great education just by watching Charles Ortel, who is methodically making the case to the people on this massive charity fraud. And he does it so well, connecting all the dots, but in such a way that your eyes don’t glaze over.
I like to think of it as the last days of the Clintonization of America.
Well stated. And I agree that it’s not just them or just Ds. But they are perfect poster children for it.
Or is it the Trumptization of Amerikka?
Look every men of all stripes does it, so it’s NORMAL. Second term in the bag?
Matt Lauer who?
Just another banal goofy looking left leaning white guy in media? Does it surprise anyone?
Jewish, too?
Oh my lord!
Lauer is Jooish? I had no idea.
On his father’s side.
Nice touch with the anti-Semitic spelling…
I remember HOZ using that spelling.
The correct spelling is (((jewish)))
I didn’t realize that Bill O’Reilly or Roger Ailes were far left liberals/progressives big shots. Thanks for pointing that out.
Apologies, Ben, but it’s a beautiful day when another fake news “personality” gets the boot:
Wew, lad! Another one bites the dust:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-29/nbc-fires-matt-lauer-inappropriate-sexual-behavior
Weird thing is, it seems the New York Times is leading the charge on these stories, starting with Weinstein. What up with that? My theory is, there’s a sort of “If we’re going down, we’re gonna take you down with us” thing going on.
OTOH, maybe it was payback for the surprise questions he lobbed at Hillary during the campaign.
However, unless he gets a hefty sum of money, and I do mean hefty, I have a feeling we haven’t heard the last of Matt Lauer yet. He’s got a vindictive streak a mile wide. Sing it, Matt! We’re all ears.
“OTOH, maybe it was payback for the surprise questions he lobbed at Hillary during the campaign.”
I remember that Ronald “Mommy?!” Reagan was provided a list of questions weeks before he was to be deposed for Iran-Contra issues.
Was this before or after Bush the First tried to remove him?
Do you mean while Nixon was in surgery?
Do you mean Reagan?
All kidding aside, if it was any sort of run of the mill rub-out attempt, Bush would have been immediately suspect due to his friendship with Hinckley’s father. He had motive, that’s for sure. I seem to recall he even dined with the father shortly before the assassination attempt took place.
Yeah I meant Reagan.
Sex sells. The answer is money, the question is “how much?”.
The NYT has their “first 10 are free” paywall up…if, in addition to their typical content, they create a new type of content (public shaming/sex scandals, etc.), they might just get some new subscribers.
And those new subscribers are valuable. An extra $120 per year in revenue with a marginal cost of effectively $0, is probably worth 5-10x
that number in enterprise value.
“First 10 are free” … per computer. If you have access to more than one computer then your monthly access is multiplied.
Delete the nytimes cookies on your computer and you’re good for another 10 stories.
The media is in trouble …
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/11/media-apocalypse/546935/
Excellent article, thanks.
You can get around that
http://trendblog.net/how-to-quickly-bypass-the-paywalls-of-wsj-nyt-and-others/
You can get around that
Very helpful, thanks for posting.
Washpost is posting breaking news that Garrison Keillor is in the hot seat now too.
What the heck?
The dems are gonna regret letting this genie out of the bottle.
Rebellion against the elite is leaking out all over the place.
Bannon?
Exposing the hypocrisy of the Billy Bush story. People living in glass houses don’t throw stones. Or shouldn’t at least.
Goofy looking white guy in media?
Oh my lord!
Turns out it was a classic projection from the dems.
Never trust a man who supports ‘womyn’s rights.’
Weird thing is, it seems the New York Times is leading the charge on these stories, starting with Weinstein. What up with that? My theory is, there’s a sort of “If we’re going down, we’re gonna take you down with us” thing going on.
They are starting to eat their own. Just like their pals the Saudis.
The left always eats itself.
Matt Lauer
He’s a tree trimmer from Chickahominy what else did you expect?
For those not in the know, Chickahominy is an “affordable” neighborhood in Greenwich, CT. My sis rented an apartment there for a year. It was actually rather nice.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/27/realestate/27livi.html
Personally, I prefer Pemberwick.
With all that said, the joke went way over my head, jeff.
Lauer has often told the story about how he considered ditching the part-time TV work for a full-time job trimming trees.
“I thought, ‘If I’m wearing a hard hat and someone drives by, they’re not going to recognize me,’” Lauer told The Hollywood Reporter in 2012. “So they’re not going to go, ‘Oh Matt, you used to host that show, now you’re trimming trees. Boy you’re done!’”
http://www.lohud.com/story/news/local/westchester/2017/11/29/matt-lauer-fired-inappropriate-sexual-behavior-formerly-lived-westchester/904399001/
Thanks for clearing that up. Well, I guess Ann Curry is having a bit of schadenfreude right about now.
He also worked at Richards, what I remember being a Men’s clothing store on Greenwich Ave during and after High School.
I remember Richard’s well. Surprisingly affordable, back in the day. But, all the action was at Outdoor Traders (or Indoor Robbers, as we used to call it.)
Retraction and apology to Chickahominy.
He’s a tree trimmer from Armstrong Court what else did you expect?
Realtors are liars.
Cedar Key, FL Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/cedar-key-fl/market-trends/
Matt Lauer is out
NPR fires a top reporter
WB fires the producer of SuperGirl
ESPN lays off 150
BuzzFeed lays off 100
The entire liberal MSM complex is imploding in real time
Entire? Just a drop in the ocean…sadly.
patience…
“The entire liberal MSM complex is imploding in real time”
Well, yes, but I think there’s also a pragmatic reason for much of this: Money. Great way to trim a lot of dead weight without too much legal wrangling. The MSM has been bleeding cash for a while now.
As many of you know, I like a good conspiracy theory, especially when it becomes conspiracy fact. During the bust of bubble 1.0, I awaited with great anticipation the media bubble bust as well, as there are always cutbacks in this area due to advertiser cutbacks. It never happened. In fact the media seemed to swell and have even greater reach and influence. This had me scratching my head. I smelled a rat.
So I had a sneaking suspicion that the MSM was getting a good deal of money from sources or a source other than advertisers. My guess was that .gov was subsidizing the MSM somehow. This seems to be very much the case with all the recent info about the national security complex (specifically the CIA) and their involvement with the MSM going back decades. The national security complex supposedly has “black budgets”. And I am guessing that money from so-called non-profit foundations was also propping up the charade. Maybe even from financial institutions.
I think this “alternative spigot” has been cut off since Trump took office. Thus, the MSM is being shrunk and the low hanging fruit picked off.
I think you’re right - their funds are drying up - they never really had a business supported by revenues from customers, just deep state money and now that that’s gone they’re taking out all the big dollar people who were getting away with all manner of things.
Look at twitter - cia funded (just like fakebook), used by agents to communicate as well as to spy on people. They take down Trumps account “by accident” to install tracking software and then announce tracking of users off twitter will occur. So transparent. Hopefully Awaleed is in pieces right now.
(((They))) killed JFK. He was for tax cuts and against the cia.
(((They))) tried to kill Reagan. Same thing.
Trump is cut from similar cloth, and it must drive them insane.
Bush Sr. was around when JFK was shot. Friend of Bush family shot at Reagan. Maybe Jeb! is somewhere right now working on an IED, lol.
I think this “alternative spigot” has been cut off since Trump took office. ”
Maybe you’re right but who in the MSM will report it? (-;
Never understood why lefties loved the likes of Franken, Garrison Kellors, Charlie Rose, etc.
Then again I never understood their affinity for Clinton, Obama, etc. either.
I guess it’s all tribalism.
Keillor and Rose made leftism look respectable, as opposed the the present day lefties with their orange hair, pussy hats and screaming in rage over the fact that they might have to pay for their birth control pills (which if generic, are already dirt cheap).
Keillor had his upper Midwest culture and Rose his east coast intellectual sheen. Keillor in particular reminds me of many Midwestern mainline Protestant pastors I’ve met over the years, soft spoken while appearing to be both intellectual and down to earth.
The sea was angry today my friends.
Like an old Liberal Hag harassing a Trump supporter who was celebrating the election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8HGTmANHyU
“Kicking myself for a choosing a wrong career. Who knew there were going to be so many opening in high-profile media jobs?”
–A comment in social media site
Well, that’s the point. There’s NOT going to be many openings in high-profile media jobs. Just like Puerto Rico is not going to be re-built, except on a bare bones basis for whatever it’s going to be used for.
Walnut Grove, CA Housing Prices Crater 29% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/walnut-grove-ca/market-trends/
Snore (Zzzzzzzzzzzz…..)
Markets
Bitcoin plunges 18% after topping $11,000 in extremely volatile trading
- The digital currency dropped more than 18 percent from a record high of $11,388.33 to current levels around $9,292 on Wednesday, according to CoinDesk.
- Trading was extremely volatile as exchanges such as Coinbase’s GDAX struggled to keep up with the surging demand.
- “There’s no fundamental value to any of this stuff and it’s all based on supply and demand at any point in time,” says Leigh Drogen, a former trader who now heads Estimize, a six-year-old company that collects and publishes financial estimates for data such as earnings.
Evelyn Cheng cnbc dot com
Published 1 Hour Ago
Updated Moments Ago
…
What a moon shot!
Blastoff….
https://www.coinbase.com/charts
My gut tells me the powers that be like bitcoin and the other cryptos as a way to suck up excess dollars they unleashed after the GFC, particularly Chinese hot money. Eventually the plug will be pulled and the “wealth” will go poof.
There was a headline somewhere today that read “The Fed is worried about Bitcoin” or some such.
Tweet posted on Marketwatch:
“#Bitcoin is breaking all time records for 24 hour volume across all exchanges, coming in at $10,676,900,000 USD (and counting)”
Over $10 BILLION in a single 24 hour period. Methinks Wall St. insiders are in on it, too.
“There’s no fundamental value to any of this stuff and it’s all based on supply and demand at any point in time,” says Leigh Drogen”
Wut? (Note to self: don’t subscribe to Estimize)
Bitcoin is up 32% IN A WEEK. Imagine the speculative gains some of these degenerate gamblers are making. How many Wall St. hedgies are in on this?
The end is near…
I considered gambling a small amount on bitcoin maybe about a year ago…thinking that it could go to zero, or the moon given the relatively little (and limited) supply.
I never did, and now, I never will.
“So if you think about the run up to the financial crisis, it’s true that we did not predict the financial crisis, but I think there is some revisionist history that goes on because the housing bubble was a big topic of discussion for several years before it actually came to an abrupt end.”
Time, and rate hikes, will tell if it has ended yet.
Over the bridge and thru the ghetto to Donks shanty we go…..
Actually a few friends of mine did that just last month. It was a pretty pleasant evening.
An evening of crow and Crater Taters.. how nice.
Interesting look at Mexicos mortgage and housing. Fleecing poor folks seems like a sport to some people.
My apologies if it’s been posted before:
http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-mexico-housing-chapter-4/
I read this article over the weekend. It was a doozy. The poor Mexican citizens have been taken for a ride. I’ve had an affinity for micro-housing and housing innovation, but these dilapidated ghettos and shoddy slums have me questioning some of the new-fangled stuff going up.
I guess this is a 5-part article.
The saddest part of the first article was this:
“When streets flood because of inadequate grading — a common problem in the summer — fraying generator cables strewn across streets become submerged, sending electrical currents coursing through knee-high water.
That makes even a short walk home from elementary school treacherous for Sarai Ruby Montoya’s 7-year-old daughter, who cries when she sees the rising waters on her street.
‘She knows she’s going to get shocked,’ Montoya said.
When Dante Tapia, 8, sees cables sizzle and shoot sparks, he can’t run fast enough.
‘It hurt real bad the time I got shocked,” he said. ‘I hate living here.’”
“Mortgage lender after mortgage lender, burdened by bad loans, went bankrupt. There were so many defaults that some lenders formed mortgage servicing companies to handle the bad loans their own industry had created.
An executive for one firm, Patrimonio, touted his approach at a finance conference in Miami in 2011. “The region’s high yield, stressed and distressed deals — turning ticking time bombs into opportunity,” was the title of his PowerPoint presentation.”
—————————–
You really have to wonder where in the hell they find these scumbags.
Is this too long to put on a Christmas card?
“Whiteness will be over because we want it to be. And when it dies, there will be millions of cultural zombies aimlessly wandering across a vastly changed landscape. Ontologically speaking, white death will mean liberation for all… Until then, remember this: I hate you because you shouldn’t exist. You are both the dominant apparatus on the planet and the void in which all other cultures, upon meeting you, die.”
Campus newspaper editorial: ‘Your [white] DNA is an abomination’
by Lauren Cooley | Nov 29, 2017, 12:01 AM
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/campus-newspaper-editorial-your-white-dna-is-an-abomination/article/2641940
Other than creating 99% of the modern world, whites haven’t really done much.
Oh yea they will love how the Chinese treat them
Or the muslims.
Or six or seven African American men on 6th street in Austin Texas.
By: Ashley Paredez
POSTED: NOV 27 2017 10:08PM CST
VIDEO POSTED: NOV 27 2017 10:07PM CST
AUSTIN, Texas - An Austin man said he was the victim of a hate crime after being punched twice on 6th street over the weekend.
Michael Temple was leaving Friends Bar around 1:45 Saturday morning. He was headed to his car when he said he came across a group of six or seven African American men at sixth and Sabine.
“When I was walking by them the dude said, ‘F Donald Trump’ and then just full force punched me right in the ear,” said Temple.
He was knocked to the ground, then got back up. Moments later he said he was sucker-punched again, in the back of the head, before the men scattered off.
“To me, honestly, I think it’s a hate crime. Why would you say ‘F Donald Trump’ and hit me? If you just hit me and didn’t say anything… but am I associated with Donald Trump because, does white mean you’re associated with Donald Trump? I didn’t vote for him, I don’t stand for anything he believes in,” said Temple.
http://www.fox7austin.com/news/local-news/man-says-he-was-victim-of-hate-crime-on-6th-street
“Or six or seven African American men on 6th street in Austin Texas.”
That’s wrong.
Wanted to make the point that this kind of “I hate you because you shouldn’t exist.” BS pushed by the likes of the SPLC leads to African American men sucker punching a dude just because he is white.
Or Latinos.
I would like to invite America’s African-American population to do a tour of Latin America. Many of these countries have sizable black populations and they are poor and downtrodden to a degree your average American would find shocking.
Albany, OR Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/albany-or/market-trends/
u owe me money
Here’s a penny for you thoughts.
Armonk, NY Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/armonk-ny/market-trends/
A nation of dumbed-down dummies who just cannot say no to anything that is detrimental to their well being …
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-57-percent-kids-track-obesity-35-study-220411704.html
Tax added sugar. Problem solved.
It’s been a year since this forecast so I guess we human beings only have nine more years left on this planet.
A pity, really; I was really enjoying life and looked foreword for a lot more of it. Guess not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqIt93dDG1M
any builders taking bit coin
I could be a buyer
or a seller
its so confusing
MarketWatch: “Dow breaks above 24,000, on track for longest streak of monthly gains in 22 years”
“Take your families and enjoy life, the way we want it to be enjoyed.” —Dubya
Eddie would be proud.
“‘Given the long era of low interest rates since 2012 a greater concern should be on “overall macro-economic stability and asset prices,’ Professor McKibbin said. ‘I would make it clear what the view of the bank is on the nature of the adjustment to come and that it’s time for rates to move to a more normal level. It’s better to precede the Fed than follow the Fed.”
Playing the 😈’s advocate, what is wrong with holding the interest rate pedal to the metal indefinitely? Isn’t it great that Bitcoin investors were able to make $10,000 to a $1 invested a few years ago on a buy-and-hold strategy? And that middle class American homeowners have realized huge home equity appreciation since the Fed began purchasing billions and billions of mortgage-backed securities circa 2012 in order to drive down mortgage rates? Who would gain if all of these wealth-effect-generating opportunities were to vanish?
“The worst place for a central bank is to appear to be in a state of complete chaos; where rates might go up or down. You don’t want that percolating out.’”
Sounds like a page torn out of Ben Bernanke’s play book.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-poised-to-take-out-24000-as-techs-rev-up-for-a-rebound-2017-11-30
How are your Granny’s Bitcoin investments doing?
I’m guessing the Fed denies its policies have any relationship to the numerous insane speculative financial manias currently in play.
WALL STREET JOURNAL
Markets
Bitcoin Mania: Even Grandma Wants In on the Action
The digital currency has gone from tech curiosity to mainstream topic, leading its value to jump more than 10-fold in 2017
Soaring Bitcoin: If It’s a Bubble, When Will it Burst?
Investment manias throughout the centuries have ranged from tulips to tech stocks to housing; is bitcoin different? Image/Video: Daniel Epstein
By Peter Rudegeair and
Akane Otani
Nov. 29, 2017 6:04 p.m. ET
Rita Scott’s grandson convinced her in mid-November to get in on the latest investing sensation and buy bitcoin. “I thought it was a big coin,” the 70-year-old said. “I didn’t even know what it was, a piece of coin? Why would I invest in a piece of coin?”
With a few hundred dollars of her money invested in it, Ms. Scott quickly caught on and started checking the price several times a day, even while playing poker at a casino in her hometown of Las Vegas.
…
When my mother-in-law asked my opinion about bitcoin over Thanksgiving dinner, that pretty much cemented it in my mind that this is an absolute mania. She’s never invested in anything in her life. I’m fairly certain she doesn’t even take advantage of employer match for her 401k. Yet she wants in on bitcoin. It’s pure fantasy. Who knows when this thing will turn parabolic the other way, but some poor suckers are going to loose their shirts.