There’s Just Too Much Supply
A report from Bisnow. “Acquisition opportunities for multifamily investors in 2017 have been slim as a record amount of capital flowed into the debt and equity space. While our investors have their eye on value-add, Class-A multifamily may be in a bubble. ‘There’s just too much supply,’ AMLI Residential CEO Greg Mutz said. Of AMLI Residential’s nine markets, Chicago is the most oversupplied, Mutz said. That is most true downtown. Mutz said the company cannot make the numbers work with new development.”
From Berkleyside in California. “Two industry groups – Apartment List and Zumper – are reporting that median rents in Berkeley fell anywhere from 3.8% to 15.9% in 2017, and dropped from 10.9% to 15% in Oakland. After going up for years, rents started to decline in June and have dropped ever since. One manager of about 1,000 apartments in Berkeley and Oakland confirmed the gist of the industry reports, although he put the decline in rents at about 5.8%. Sam Sorokin of Premium Properties said he calculated that number by looking at people who first started renting in August 2016 and moved out in August 2017. His company had to lower rents to attract tenants, he said.”
“‘Something’s up,’ said Sorokin. ‘All the economic indicators are great: strong job market, good wages, we’re not in a recession. Things just aren’t renting for as much. In 2017, a tipping point has happened. The new construction has caused the rents to decline. There is no other reason I can think of.’”
“Since 2014, 910 units have been built across 11 projects, according to a ‘housing pipeline’ study prepared by Berkeley city staff. There are an additional 525 units being built, or which have active building permits, in nine projects. But now that so many of these units are available, the demand has dropped, Sorokin said. Units are sitting empty.”
The Union Tribune in California. “San Diego County is on track to build fewer homes than it did last year, said permit records released this week. Residential building permits for all homes — condos, apartments and single-family homes — are down 18 percent in the first nine months of 2017 compared to the same time last year, said the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California. The only county with slower building was Orange County, which had a 21 percent reduction.”
“The slowdown is led by a drop in permits for multifamily construction, down by 2,209 permits, or 40 percent, compared to the same time last year. Real estate analyst Russ Valone, president of MarketPointe Realty Advisors, said fewer new builders are coming to town because of land costs. He also noted that some lenders are wary of new projects because rent increases for high-end apartments has slowed.”
“‘As those newer projects’ rents push into the mid-$2,000 a month range, we started to see a slowdown in the rate of increases,’ he said. ‘I think you may have some lenders looking at the slowed increases and starting to take a cautious view of the marketplace.’”
The Charlotte Observer in North Carolina. “The booming Charlotte apartment market has been dominated by gleaming new towers and thousands of units packed onto small sites next to the light rail over the past few years, but that could be about to change. Developers in Charlotte are increasingly turning to bigger, more spread-out sites in the suburbs. Charles Dalton, president of Real Data, said markets such as South End and uptown that have been flooded with apartments now have much higher vacancy rates, as landlords compete to fill thousands of new units.”
“‘If you’re a developer or lender, they’re looking at those numbers and saying why are we building in a place that has a 15 or 20 percent vacancy rate, when we could be building in the suburbs that have a 5 percent vacancy rate?’ said Dalton. The trend was on display recently in Charlotte, where developers have filed rezoning plans to build 1,000 new apartments in the last month. None of them are planned in urban locations.”
From WPSU in Pennsylvania. “The Metropolitan is one of the new high-end developments in State College. For Penn State students looking for new, well-appointed apartments close to campus, the buildings are a plus. But for families and renters looking for affordable places to live, the boom in student housing is a mixed bag. The high rises also mean a change in the feel and appearance in parts of town.”
“Jim May, director of the Centre Regional Planning Agency, said the inventory of housing in the area had not improved in a while. But, over the past few years it has. Between 2 and 3,000 new student units have been proposed or are under construction in the past few years. May said a lot of that comes from large national developers attracted to the area.”
“For one thing, the vacancy rate — the number of empty apartments in a building — is still very low. Nationally, that number is about 8 to 10 percent. With Penn State students nearby, the rate in State College is closer to 4 or 5 percent. Eventually, the housing market in the area might max out, May said, but, that hasn’t happened yet.”
“‘There will come a time when the last person in is the one that probably loses money, but I don’t see that happening for quite a while,’ May said.”
From The Pitch on Kansas City. “‘A word you’ll hear me say a lot today is condos,’ said my tour guide, Troy, as we sailed past the Western Auto building on Grand, atop a double-decker bus. What a coincidence: I had been talking about condos just hours before. Or maybe I am just always talking about condos these days. Luxury housing is sprouting up everywhere in this city.”
“It bothers me. Maybe, as some smart people tell me, this influx of new housing will satisfy the market, make apartments less scarce, help stabilize rising rent prices across the city. Maybe. But when I stare at these boxy buildings and envision the 550-square-foot rooms inside them, renting for $1,700 a month, all I can think is that the best thing about Kansas City — that it’s cheap to live here — is slipping away before my eyes.”
“I got a short Americano in the Crossroads the other day and it was three dollars and some amount of cents. Do you know what that means? That means my coffee cost $5. I give the barista a dollar, and who knows what happens to that loose change. It’s never in the car when I need money to park. Five dollars! Call me Andy Rooney, but you know it’s true. I was hardly alone at the brewery the other night, where the cheapest beer was $8 and it came in a 10-ounce glass. Were some of you also wondering when you started getting less beer for more money? Do you really like this Whole Foods–ification of your city?”
“As Troy said at the outset, condos were indeed an inescapable component of the tour. So much of our history is now just housing. The old federal courthouse on Grand is now the Courthouse Lofts. Many buildings in the Garment District — which Troy told us was once second only to New York in terms of clothing production — have been converted into lofts. The Western Auto Building (originally built for Coca-Cola): lofts.”
“All these buildings that were once home to businesses that provided fair wages and pensions for workers are now condos for the upper-middle class, or cafés staffed by overeducated employees with crushing student-loan debt, unprotected by unions, with no chance for retirement. That the zombies of late capitalism have invaded Kansas City and are in the process of making this quiet place unlivable for the average person is horrifying. We should be enacting policies aimed at making life easier for ordinary Kansas Citians. Instead, we give massive tax breaks to developers, ignore our failing schools, and build a streetcar for people lucky enough to work or live along the increasingly expensive route along which it travels. And for tourists. Don’t forget the tourists.”
‘Something’s up,’ said Sorokin. ‘All the economic indicators are great: strong job market, good wages, we’re not in a recession.’
This is why people like you get smacked upside the head Sam. Recessions start during booms, because of booms.
To send a check
“To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com “
Yes. Otherwise, donate a few tubes of Trump Cream to our good friends who need it desperately.
“we’re not in a recession”
Unfortunately we are in a recession. It’s painted over with debt and statistics.
You can say we’re in a bubble. But to say we’re in a recession is ridiculous.
With 100 million unemployed and the labor force participation rate at 37 year lows?
There is no better definition than that my friend.
Whatever you say dude. And lemme guess, Chicago YOY prices are down 17%?
It is what it is my good friend. It is what it is.
Andover, MA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/andover-ma/market-trends/
Try to wakeup Buttercup.
Some things are in a bubble and other things are not. My take is that on balance increases in earnings are overshadowed by increase in debt. To look only at one side of the balance sheet is misleading.
This is how the government and the press fool many people into thinking we really are experiencing economic growth, by ignoring one side of the balance sheet.
debt brings forward demand. once the party is over demand craters again as prices go higher. things fall back to an equalibrium. I guess you can keep issuing more debt forever to keep demand up.
Thats why they say QE is like a roach motel.
Except Poet that cratering demand brings lower prices, which tends to crush the producers (who are in debt). Equilibrium comes well after the dead are carted from the field.
the labor force participation rate at 37 year lows
My take is that’s only on the books jobs, how many millions,or tens of millions, are off the books, we need a national sales tax even 5% so that everybody pays something even on illegal “earnings”
More taxes…. Right.
Plano, TX Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/plano-tx/market-trends/
“Plano, TX Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY”
Realtors everywhere are in awe of your cherry picking ability.
Hello my good friend.
Keller, TX Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/keller-tx/market-trends/
‘There will come a time when the last person in is the one that probably loses money’
Buzzz, wrong answer. Too much means pain for everybody.
All will lose, but the last one in, who paid too dollar for the privilege of jumping on the mania bandwagon, stands to lose the most.
top dollar
Are there levels of bankruptcy?
‘If You Build It, They Will Come – Apartment Construction at a 20-Year High’
‘The key to capitalizing on today’s ever-growing apartment rental market? It’s simple: build more units. According to the National Multifamily Housing Council, demand for rental units is so high in the U.S. that we would need a whopping 4.6 million new units by 2030 just to keep up. Couple that demand with rising rents across the nation, and the apartment market is rife with opportunities for financial growth.’
‘It seems many have recognized the potential in today’s growing market, as apartment construction has now hit a 20-year high. Between 1997 and 2006, the U.S. was only adding about 212,000 new units per year on average, apartment search website RENTCafé reports. It jumped slightly after the recession, hitting around 237,000 in 2014, and by the end of 2017 apartment completions are expected to clock in at 345,000 or higher—a 21 percent jump over 2016.’
‘According to Yardi Matrix data, rent growth is actually slowing in some of the nation’s biggest cities, like San Francisco, for example, where rents have slowed to their lowest rate of growth since 2015. The city gained nearly 12,000 units since last year, and about 9,500 more are currently under construction. This influx of new construction has dampened rents in the area significantly.’
‘Other pricey markets have also seen rent growth stall as of late, with Portland, Houston, Austin, Boston and Manhattan all experiencing deceleration.’
‘The Dallas-Fort Worth metro area is also seeing a serious influx of new units in recent years, with 25,000 expected by the end of 2017, second largest volume in the U.S. Fort Worth will gain about 3,500 units this year, while suburbs McKinney and Richardson will add 2,450 and 1,406, respectively.’
‘A little further South in Texas, Houston metro is 3rd in the nation with close to 18,000 new apartments expected this year. The city has actually seen negative rent growth over the last year, due in large part to an overabundance of units.’
Purely anecdotal information from the nation’s soon to be third largest city. I just renewed my apartment lease (Class B). After several years of 7-8% increases, my rent went up by the grand total of $2 a month.
‘If You Build It,
They Will ComeRents Will Fall‘Regarding Bitcoin, etc.: If I take $50,000 of “real” money and buy Bitcoin with it, where does the $50,000 go?! And what do I actually own, other than an entry in some virtual ledger or whatever?
(I posted a similar question yesterday but didn’t get much response… I’m still trying to comprehend this stuff.)
“And what do I actually own, other than an entry in some virtual ledger or whatever?”
Why not ask the same question regarding your savings account, Social Security, or mutual fund account at Vanguard?
What do you really own in any of these situations, aside from a virtual ledger showing the dollar value of your account and terms under which you can gain access to those dollars?
Or pension.
Speaking of pensions, I wouldn’t be surprised to find out CALPERS was heavily into Bitcoin. Seems like something they’d dip their toes, or whole foot, into.
Got to do something to meet those ridiculous investment return expectations
“trying to comprehend this stuff…”
That’s the problem. Grampa used to say “There’s no logical explanation for something illogical.”
Your money goes through a pass-through entity such as Coinbase, who takes their cut, then to the seller of the Bitcoin you are purchasing.
As I understand it, all original Bitcoins were mined, not purchased. So there was no original person who was receiving cash if you will. Again, this is just what I have come to understand, this is by no means the truth.
One problem I have is the fact that the person(s) who developed Bitcoin are anonymous, and the entire “currency” is shrouded in mystery, yet billions upon billions of dollars are being thrown at something which nobody honestly knows what it is. They’re calling it “virtual gold” now.
So what happens when the inevitable run on BitCoin occurs and 3rd party pass-thru providers (ie. Coinbase) run out of cash?
How do we know any of these providers are really legit?
Seems like the whole thing is based on blind faith.
On the other hand, all those paper dollars in your wallet are base on blind faith, but that’s another discussion for another day.
By relative comparison, buying that overpriced crap-shack seems like a sure thing compared to crypto currencies.
What a wacky world we live in.
Coinbase isn’t the one coming up with the cash, they’re just distributing it. They’re the middle man taking their cut. When you say “run” on Bitcoin it’s not like a bank, it’s more like a stock. A “run” would be panic selling. Worst case scenario there’s no buyer and you ride it to the bottom.
That being said, I was reading up on Coinbase the past few days since it’s the site I go to to see the price charts on cryptocurrencies. They seem like the perfect company to go belly up once this giant Bitcoin bubble pops. Some of the pictures I saw of their San Francisco location show pimped out workspace “nooks” with pillows and lounges resembling a bedroom more than an office. They have a “gaming room” with free food that’s surely loaded with organic vegan fare, etc. It’s pretty nauseating, honestly, given the fact that this company is really producing nothing meaningful in the grand scheme of things.
Is there anyone out there besides myself who feel that the entire world is turning into one gigantic scam?
I’m with you. It’s not about producing anything viable or of long term value, it’s about short term profit$.
I agree, it is.
free food that’s surely loaded with organic vegan fare
Why hate on organic vegan food? Beware the vegan mafia:
https://www.eater.com/2017/8/14/16143048/vegan-mafia-investing-meatless-startups
Agreed.
I think I’ve quoted this before, but I like this view of money:
Ann Barnhardt wrote “MONEY is a FUNGIBLE PROXY for man’s ability to labor, produce and create THROUGH TIME. Money isn’t gold. Money isn’t pieces of paper. Money isn’t zeroes and ones on a computer server. Money is human life and effort manifested in an agreed-upon form which is used as a convenient medium of exchange.”
People that scam their way into vast sums of money and then use those ill gotten gains to get someone else to perform a service for them or give them something with intrinsic value, are basically stealing a part of someone’s life.
An “honest day’s work” to me means you did something of value for someone in exchange for money which you can then use to get someone else to do something of value for you.
Scammers are doing more than just stealing money, because it’s not about the money, it’s what it represents.
So many of my coworkers would show up on a daily basis and steal their salaries by doing nothing but wander the halls, flop down in other employee’s offices to BS aaaall daaaay looooong. These were often the lifers who are high paid workers that would “get” (not earn) large bonuses. How do people (thieves) look at themselves in the mirror? How do they have any self-respect? I had to keep my office door locked so I could actually focus and be productive. Don’t even get me started on the perverts in my office. All of this was accepted because it was the culture.
Scammers, thieves, and perverts, karma’s gonna get you and it’s gonna get you good!
It’s about getting pieces of paper in the mail, or the electronic statement equivalent, documenting how many units of wealth that you own. Or, if you are into it, how much stuff you can convert said wealth units into and cram under the roof of your McMansion, in order to impress your friends and neighbors.
“TOKYO – A bitcoin mining company in Slovenia has been hacked, for the possible theft of tens of millions of dollars, renewing questions about the security of the virtual currency just days before it is due to start trading on major U.S. exchanges.
NiceHash, a company that mines bitcoins on behalf of customers, said Thursday it is investigating a security breach and will stop operating for 24 hours while it verifies how many bitcoins were taken.”
Quote from USAToday.
“A bitcoin mining company in Slovenia has been hacked, for the possible theft of tens of millions of dollars, renewing questions about the security of the virtual currency just days before it is due to start trading on major U.S. exchanges.”
“Tens of millions of dollars.” That’s no small hack. Surely it’s traceable, though.
Surely it’s traceable…
Yeah, like all the other hacks before that couldn’t be traced.
“Yeah, like all the other hacks before that couldn’t be traced.”
There’s always an electronic footprint - a digital signature each time a Bitcoin is traded. That signature would point to where that Bitcoin ended up. If there was no such thing, Bitcoin couldn’t even exist because there would no way to tell a counterfeit from the real thing.
That being said, these Bitcoin thefts don’t bode well for the safety of these “cryptocurrencies.” I think the whole thing’s an online cesspool of crime, money-laundering and debauchery.
the whole thing’s an online cesspool…
That’s exactly why it is almost all a Chinese thing.
‘all original Bitcoins were mined’
That’s actually a clever rhetorical deception, using the word mined. Everybody can understand it, even alludes to metals or commodities. So is there anything of tangible worth created by this “mining”?
Yeah, it really is. I think that’s why they initially came up with the term “Bitcoin mining,” to equate it to the labor intensive effort of digging gold out of the ground, only in this case it is the block chain thing. No surprise it’s referenced as “virtual gold” at times.
I don’t have a problem so much with the idea of a digital currency that will never be debased like fiat, but the problems I have are with the lack of transparency in terms of what is behind it, ie. who developed it, how it is controlled and secured (the who and where), what sorts of checks and balances there are in terms of the adherence to the 21 million total, etc. There is nothing out there to even verify what it is and who is behind it. It could be an elaborate scam.
Also, the fact that it’s a known vehicle for money laundering, was part of that Silk Road black market online drug ring, etc. makes it very suspect.
‘it really is’
What is created then? A carbon credit? Paper clip?
You said “That’s actually a clever rhetorical deception, using the word mined” and I said “it really is.” It’s not my term, it’s what the creators and believers use.
What is “created” are ledger entries of transactions. Are these valuable or worthless? I can’t really say.
You call this mining?
https://i.imgur.com/FAVyM.gif
It’s about what they’re worth. ZERO.
http://www.montypython.net/scripts/merchant.php
Mr Ford: So er, how about a pound?
Banker: A pound. Yes, I see. Now this loan would be secured by the…
Mr Ford: It’s not a loan, sir.
Banker: What?
Mr Ford: It’s not a loan.
Banker: Ah.
Mr Ford: You get one of these, sir. (he gives him a flag)
Banker: It’s a bit small for a share certificate isn’t it? Look, I think I’d better run this over to our legal department. If you could possibly pop back on Friday…
Mr Ford: Well do you have to do that, couldn’t you just give me the pound?
Banker: Yes, but you see I don’t know what it’s for.
Mr Ford: It’s for the orphans.
Banker: Yes?
Mr Ford: It’s a gift.
Banker: A what?
Mr Ford: A gift.
Banker: Oh a gift!
Mr Ford: Yes.
Banker: A tax dodge.
Mr Ford: No, no, no, no.
Banker: No? Well, I’m awfully sorry I don’t understand. Can you just explain exactly what you want.
Mr Ford: Well, I want you to give me a pound, and then I go away and give it to the orphans.
Banker: Yes?
Mr Ford: Well, that’s it.
Banker: No, no, no, I don’t follow this at all, I mean, I don’t want to seem stupid but it looks to me as though I’m a pound down on the whole deal.
Mr Ford: Well, yes you are.
Banker: I am! Well, what is my incentive to give you the pound?
Mr Ford: Well the incentive is to make the orphans happy.
Banker: (genuinely puzzled) Happy? You quite sure you’ve got this right?
Mr Ford: Yes, lots of people give me money.
Banker: What, just like that?
Mr Ford: Yes.
Banker: Must be sick. I don’t suppose you could give me a list of their names and addresses could you?
Mr Ford: No, I just go up to them in the street and ask.
Banker: Good lord! That’s the most exciting new idea I’ve heard in years! It’s so simple it’s brilliant! Well, if that idea of yours isn’t worth a pound I’d like to know what is. (he takes the tin from Ford)
Mr Ford: Oh, thank you, sir.
Banker: The only trouble is, you gave me the idea before I’d given you the pound. And that’s not good business.
Mr Ford: Isn’t it?
Banker: No, I’m afraid it isn’t. So, um, off you go. (he pulls a lever opening a trap door under Ford’s feet and Ford falls through with a yelp) Nice to do business with you.
“(he pulls a lever opening a trap door under Ford’s feet and Ford falls through with a yelp)”
Standard bank customer management protocol…
When I said “yeah, it really is” I was agreeing with you that it’s clever. I’m not a fan of Bitcoin.
So is there anything of tangible worth created by this “mining”?
Heat? Maybe we should only allow mining in cold climates in the winter?
“As I understand it, all original Bitcoins were mined, not purchased. So there was no original person who was receiving cash if you will.”
Why not just let a Bitcoin mining bot take care of mining more Bitcoin into existence 24/7 and deposit the proceeds into your virtual vault? You can exchange this unlimited, ever-expanding Bitcoin horde at a rate exceeding $10,000 a coin. If you program your bot to mine a mere 10 Bitcoins a day, you can become a millionaire in only 10 days!
Okay, thanks for the comments. Maybe I’m just too old, but it’s been hard for me to get my head around all this.
Too much of a bubble for me to get involved, but I’d still like to understand what everyone is so excited about LOL
That description of Coinbase’s offices reminds me of the things I read during Tech bubble 1.0.
“Maybe I’m just too old, but it’s been hard for me to get my head around all this.”
A sign of mental stability. If any of this nonsense seemed to make sense to you then you probably need to seek a psychological evaluation.
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” - Charles McKay
All original Bitcoins are mined, not purchased.
Can someone explain this? I’m not a financial expert, but it seems like more Bitcoin can be created out of thin air without hurting the existing value. Like Upper Deck and their 1989 Griffey Junior card. Oh, it skyrocketed in value? Well, grab the plates and some cardboard and print some more!
My understanding is that there is a maximum number of Bitcoin that will ever be able to be mined is 21 million. To date, there have been something between 16.5MM and 17MM mined.
You can read about Bitcoin mining and block chain for days, but here is a brief synopsis:
“What is ‘Bitcoin Mining’
Bitcoin mining is the process by which transactions are verified and added to the public ledger, known as the block chain, and also the means through which new bitcoin are released. Anyone with access to the internet and suitable hardware can participate in mining. The mining process involves compiling recent transactions into blocks and trying to solve a computationally difficult puzzle. The participant who first solves the puzzle gets to place the next block on the block chain and claim the rewards. The rewards, which incentivize mining, are both the transaction fees associated with the transactions compiled in the block as well as newly released bitcoin.
BREAKING DOWN ‘Bitcoin Mining’
The amount of new bitcoin released with each mined block is called the block reward. The block reward is halved every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every 4 years. The block reward started at 50 in 2009, is now 25 in 2014, and will continue to decrease. This diminishing block reward will result in a total release of bitcoin that approaches 21 million.
How hard are the puzzles involved in mining? Well, that depends on how much effort is being put into mining across the network. The difficulty of the mining can be adjusted, and is adjusted by the protocol every 2016 blocks, or roughly every 2 weeks. The difficulty adjusts itself with the aim of keeping the rate of block discovery constant. Thus if more computational power is employed in mining, then the difficulty will adjust upwards to make mining harder. And if computational power is taken off of the network, the opposite happens. The difficulty adjusts downward to make mining easier.
In the earliest days of Bitcoin, mining was done with CPUs from normal desktop computers. Graphics cards, or graphics processing units (GPUs), are more effective at mining than CPUs and as Bitcoin gained popularity, GPUs became dominant. Eventually, hardware known as an ASIC, which stands for Application-Specific Integrated Circuit, was designed specifically for mining bitcoin. The first ones were released in 2013 and have been improved upon since, with more efficient designs coming to market. Mining is competitive and today can only be done profitably with the latest ASICs. When using CPUs, GPUs, or even the older ASICs, the cost of energy consumption is greater than the revenue generated.”
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin-mining.asp
So it produces an imaginary “coin”. That’s sorta like saying Bernanke mined $4 trillion of QE.
I think it’s a massive speculative bubble in the vein of a momentum trade - fools rushing in. I am not a believer in it, I’ve just been reading about it as it hyperinflated. The chart is parabolic at this point. The meltdown is sure to be spectacular. There was a nearly $5,000 swing in price today, ranging from $14k to $19k.
So, the incentive to keep the machine running is that you get a shot at winning some bitcoin. What happens when the theoretical maximum of 21MM BTC is reached? Is there any incentive to continue to “mine”? If not, who keeps up the ledger?
I suppose transaction fees come into play at that point…enter VISA?
“That’s sorta like saying Bernanke mined $4 trillion of QE.”
Exactly.
And any honest comparison of dollars to Bitcoin has to acknowledge that to an outside observer, it is hard to identify a qualitative distinction between dollars that are electronically printed and Bitcoins that are electronically mined into existence. What security does the owner of either asset class actually possess?
What security does the owner of either asset class actually possess?
One is supported by an army.
Back in the early 2000’s we called it “folding” as in protein folding, see http://folding.stanford.edu
It was fun to see your electric bill double as you churned out work units to move your team up the rankings.
And strangely on topic, the number one ranked folding team goes by the name “Curecoin”.
http://folding.stanford.edu/stats/
I was just trying to be sarcastic but I guess maybe I wasn’t far off in the comparison:
Curecoin merges two amazing areas in computer science:
Encrypted currency & scientific research computing.
http://curecoin.net
With folding though you might be able to make a convincing argument that all that energy being consumed is somehow worth it. I’m not sure you can say the same about bitcoin mining.
I actually did “folding”…mainly because it was interesting to me–and if something good came of it, hey, bonus.
Sufficient justification for murdering Seth Rich, right?
I have to admit my ignorance about that story.
I don’t follow these conspiracy theories. But I have to say that given DC’s high murder rate, other explanations seem plausible. This, in turn, could make it easier to get away with politically inspired murder.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/24/us/seth-rich-dnc-wikileaks-theories/index.html
I believe the MSM’s take on this. White guy walking down the street in an upscale neighborhood is shot for no reason whatsoever. His wallet, watch and phone are not stolen either.
This happens all the time right? Nothing to see here folks.
CNN = FAKE NEWS. It’s been proven.
That said, I don’t know any MSM that can be trusted as fair and accurate. BTW, whatever happened with the Vegas massacre? Smells like a huge coverup to me, for an event that was one of the most atrocious in the history of our country.
I remember someone here having an interesting Theory. That explained the large quantity of guns, etc. That it was a deal where he was meeting some people who were buying all those guns. Etc.
IIRC, wasn’t there something about the shooter sending $100,000 to family in the Philippines, shortly before it happened?
He was dealing guns for the deep state, which is why he had all of them in his room.
He had the tannerite in his car so he could drive out to the desert and let the customers shoot at it, so they could test out the merchandise.
And something went wrong so they put into play this mass-shooting cover story.
My other favorite theory as of late is that it was a failed assassination attempt on a Saudi prince who was there at the time.
“‘As those newer projects’ rents push into the mid-$2,000 a month range, we started to see a slowdown in the rate of increases,’ he said. ‘I think you may have some lenders looking at the slowed increases and starting to take a cautious view of the marketplace.’”
Slowing rent growth is sure to dampen investor demand. Once investors pull out, it will be a long way down to equilibrate the excess of luxury units with a shortage of luxury buyers.
‘Residential building permits for all homes — condos, apartments and single-family homes — are down 18 percent in the first nine months of 2017 compared to the same time last year, said the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California. The only county with slower building was Orange County, which had a 21 percent reduction.’
‘The slowdown is led by a drop in permits for multifamily construction, down by 2,209 permits, or 40 percent, compared to the same time last year.’
And they’ll wonder if there’s going to be a recession. A lot of jobs going away. Material suppliers, architects, surveyors, construction of all types. And a recession will make those rents even harder to swing - here come the defaults.
Sounds to me like there’s about to be a bumper crop of nearly-new pickup trucks for sale soon…
I heard that there is a LOT of work in renovations, so my guess is these displaced construction workers will offer themselves up as handymen for reno companies.
New Fakebook group policing to protect the feelz of snowflakes:
http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/06/cnn-glorifies-white-allies-who-want-to-police-your-insensitive-facebook-comments/
“Winning” social media =/= winning elections.
I’ve come to appreciate the maxim “arguing with fools proves there is two.” I find it hard to resist getting drawn into debating with someone anonymous over the internet. It’s probably a very pointless exercise, but I do think there are rare instances when people are open to changing their views. Here is one such example of where this works:
https://www.npr.org/2017/06/29/534916052/change-my-view-on-reddit-helps-people-challenge-their-own-opinions
“Winning” social media =/= winning elections.
Winning on social media is winning in the feelings-based world.
Winning elections is winning in the reality-based world.
‘The booming Charlotte apartment market has been dominated by gleaming new towers and thousands of units packed onto small sites…Charles Dalton, president of Real Data, said markets such as South End and uptown that have been flooded with apartments now have much higher vacancy rates, as landlords compete to fill thousands of new units.’
‘If you’re a developer or lender, they’re looking at those numbers and saying why are we building in a place that has a 15 or 20 percent vacancy rate’
Making up the loss with volume?
They’re not any smarter here in Charlotte.
‘At Novel Providence Farm, a one-bedroom unit is listed for $1,028 a month.” - - paying that for being south of 485 on providence is ridiculous. Traffic is awful, upwards of 1-1.5hrs drive time in rush hour BEFORE completion of more apartments and retail in the area that will further worsen traffic.
” At Solis Berewick, a two-bedroom apartment costs $1,339 a month.’ - - that’s laughable for Steele Creek.
Oh, Al “look where my hand was” Franken is speaking:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?438270-1/senator-al-franken-colleagues-1145-am&live
He’s gone.
“I am proud that during my time the senate I have used my power to be a champion of women and that I have earned a reputation as someone who respects the women I work alongside everyday. I know there’s been a very different picture of me painted over the last few weeks, but I know who I really am,’ Franken said on the U.S. Senate floor.’
Such grace these democrats serial sexual predators.
“in the coming weeks”?!?!
And BLAMES Trump and Moore…
Democrats really have learned nothing.
But he is an…..ICON.
Oh wait - that was the other democrat serial sexual predator.
Old: It’s all Bush’s fault
New: It’s all Trump’s fault
No matter what it’s never the Democrat’s fault.
Champion of Women? There’s your pervert.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VN29X2HCKpU
So he’s making a big deal of voluntarily walking out of the Senate because he’s a misunderstood high-minded fellow.
Didn’t make sense.
Then I heard that Trent Franks (R - Arizona) is walking away, because he didn’t want his dirty laundry aired by the Ethics Committee.
And there it is - Franken would have gotten a thorough proctosigmoidoscopy by the Ethics Committee. That was the thing that made him voluntarily give up such a prize as a safe Senate seat. After they got done with him, he must have concluded, he would be gone and his dirty laundry would have been fully aired.
One down, 47 to go.
This Bitcoin thing…up 73% in a week, 2100% in a year.
https://www.coinbase.com/charts?locale=en-US
And yet, nobody even knows who created Bitcoin or any important details about the security of it, etc. Coinbase is the most popular place to buy Bitcoin, but you need to do so with a credit or debit card, so they can get the CASH for your purchase.
This is a speculative bubble on steroids - a hyper-bubble. The early birds have been enjoying tax free speculative gains which is a huge part of it - money laundering. Now the IRS is demanding ALL customer records from Coinbase but they are fighting it in court.
Looking at the chart, this is unreal. It’s at $16,825 as I type, and there was much hype when it crested $11,000 last week.
Chart of historic Bubbles. And this is from a few days ago, Bitcoin has soared much higher already..
https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/charts/2017/11/1512072487_bubbles.jpg
The Mississippi Company and South Sea Bubble time overlap is interesting. Were these events somehow coupled, as the preponderance of historically important bubbles that were conjured up in the modern (post-1980s) central banking era have been?
Up around 10,000% since I stopped actively buying BTC and switched to eth (and subsequently LTC). I remember making weekly BTC purchases of ~ 20 BTC for $500, back when I was a pathetic biglaw associate.
At the time I was thinking it would probably go up 100% over a decade.
God bless crypto.
Another internet Warren Buffett. Yawn.
See scam, above.
I have an attorney friend who would never, ever gamble (against his religion), who nonetheless is a bitcoin investor and a true believer in the sustainability of the cryptocurrency’s run.
I’m looking forward to the sob stories of attorneys who bought near the top and got wiped out.
My partner and I were talking about how neither of us bought when it was sub-$1,000 over a year ago (when we talked about it)…but also noted:
1. That we wouldn’t have invested enough to make a difference in either of our lives; and
2. We aren’t “true believers” and so once we doubled, or tripled our money, we probably would have sold anyway, so the theoretical 20x would have never happened.
Makes the current situation more entertainment than regret.
That the zombies of late capitalism have invaded Kansas City and are in the process
it’s not capitalism folks USA hasn’t been since the New fckin Deal
Donald Trump — keeper of promises
Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN
Updated 6:24 AM ET, Thu December 7, 2017
Washington (CNN)A politician who actually does what he told voters he would do seems almost unfathomable in Washington, a town of broken promises. For Donald Trump, being a president who delivers is especially crucial, since it’s one of the golden keys to his so far unbreakable bond with supporters.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/07/politics/donald-trump-promises-kept/index.html
Liberals take Trump literally, but not seriously.
Conservatives take Trump seriously but not literally.
So when Trump says I will build the most beautiful wall on the border that will be 50 feet tall, liberals shriek about building a wall 50 feet tall and gnash teeth about the idea of a 50 ft talll wall for 1500 miles. Conservatives on the other hand understand that he doesn’t LITERALLY mean a 50 ft tall fence, but he’s serious about border enforcement.
Same with taxes. Liberals are gnashing teeth because the tax cuts won’t be LITERALLY what Trump promised. Conservatives are happy that he was SERIOUS about cutting taxes, even though it wasn’t word for word verbatim what he said on the campaign trail.
And this is why it’s so amusing to watch the left explode with rage every day when he tweets something. They parse every word word and think he’s serious about every tweet, while conservatives understand teh tweets are just a way to put forth an idea, and the actual literal words are not consequential. See the Muslim violence video. He trolled the media beautifully with that one. While MSNBC was busy debating whether the videos were hate speech, all of America was awakened to the videos and had the chance to judge for themselves.
I don’t take anything that either side says as fact. But I do watch whose ox appears to be getting gored just from their emotional reactions, since I don’t trust any of the media reports about the facts…
Chelsea Clinton: I tried to care about money but couldn’t
BY LESLIE LARSON
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
Updated: Monday, June 23, 2014, 5:13 PM
Hillary Clinton insists she isn’t “well-off” and now daughter Chelsea, according to a recent interview, claims she couldn’t care less about money.
“I was curious if I could care about (money) on some fundamental level, and I couldn’t,” she told Fast Company in an interview that ran in the magazine’s May edition, explaining why she gave up lucrative gigs to join her family’s philanthropic foundation.
The Clinton name likely opened doors for the political heiress, including an eye-popping $600,000 annual salary for an irregular stint as an NBC special correspondent, but Chelsea insists her work speaks for itself.
“I will just always work harder (than anybody else) and hopefully perform better,” said Clinton, who along with former banker husband Marc Mezvinsky, purchased a $10.5-million Gramercy Park apartment in 2013.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/chelsea-clinton-care-money-article-1.1840138
If I could afford a Gramercy Park apartment, I wouldn’t care about money either.
Money is not particularly interesting unless you don’t have it. Kind of like air, or traction (ice).
Tone deaf, just like her mom.
Tone deaf, just like her mom.
And in the interest of not having another Clinton in the White House I’m glad to see that. If she had her dad’s instincts for what J6P wants to hear she would probably succeed.
Renter’s Warehouse property management just ran an ad on Denver radio stating they’ll rent your property “even in a slowing market.”
On. The. Radio. A “slowing market” in Denver, LOLZ.
That is quite remarkable, given the power of denial.
People who use RW are amateurs, like accidental landlords who can’t sell because they owe too much.
RW charges nearly 10% of annual rent at a tenant’s move in. That’s almost the entire profit (minus tax incentives for depreciation and interest write offs).
People using them are desperate, dumb, or both.
Liberace!
‘nearly 10%…That’s almost the entire profit’
Imagine the schlonging these Charlotte apartment guys are getting with 15-20% vacancies.
Idaho City, ID Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/idaho-city-id/market-trends/
“The digital currency hit a high of $19,340 before falling more than 20 percent from that level to $15,198.63…”
Spectacular moon shot. One for the history books on the Age of Mania.
At least you can eat Tulips.
The volatility is getting rather violent. Brings to mind a plane flying through a windstorm, just before getting blown out of the sky.
Roh-roh…
Technology
Steam stops accepting payments in bitcoins
7 December 2017
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-42264622
Unbelievable… anyone buying Bitcoin at current prices either has money to burn or is blinded by euphoric hopes for ever-frothier valuations.
…
In a statement, development studio Valve, which runs Steam, said “high fees and volatility” had driven it to stop accepting them.
It said that fees to process Bitcoin payments had “skyrocketed” in 2017, making the virtual currency much less attractive as an option.
It said it may re-evaluate Bitcoin as a payment possibility in the future.
Losing loop
In its statement, Valve said although Bitcoin had always been volatile, the rapid changes in value it had seen during the past few months had been “extreme”.
Steam started accepting payments in bitcoins in April this year.
At that time, each Bitcoin was worth about $450 (£335). Now, each coin is worth about $14,800.
The moment-by-moment shifts in value were a problem, Valve said, because of the narrow window customers had to complete a purchase using bitcoins.
If a Bitcoin-based transaction was prolonged, the value of the coins being transferred could change “significantly”, it said.
In these cases, customers had to transfer more bitcoins to make the payment, or get a refund. And either option would result in the customer paying more exchange fees, currently about $20.
Some customers adding bitcoins had even been caught out a second time as the value changed again.
“This year, we’ve seen increasing number of customers get into this state,” Valve said.
Bitcoin continued to rise in value this week and looks set to break the $15,000 barrier soon.
…
New FHA loan limits released. They’re insuring million-dollar plus loans for houses in Hawaii, and nearly 700K loans for many other locations. Wow. I thought FHA was supposed to be for poorer folks. Not your daddy’s FHA I guess (PDF): https://www.hud.gov/sites/dfiles/OCHCO/documents/17-16ml.pdf
Who’s buying million dollar houses in Hawaii? Hotel maids, cooks, hula dancers, taxi drivers, waiters?
Wealthy Asians, I’d guess bidding prices up. FHA giving waiters an opportunity act as pass through entities for bigger investors who can buy without mortgages.
Who’s making these rules at FHA now?
“This erasing of Keillor and his enormous and valuable creative legacy from history has to be setting off their internal alarms.”
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/garrison-keillor-who-he/
I’ve always been an enemy of abusers of any stripe, but the trend of punishment without and due process alarms me. Tough times may lie ahead.
When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.
Kind of brings to mind the sad demise of Robespierre during the Reign of Terror. “Off with his head.”
1. Could anyone even imagine this under Clinton?
2. The Fed’s assets drop to lowest level in over three years. Are there adults finally in charge again?
3. God bless DJT
++++++
The Fed’s QE-Unwind is Really Happening
by Wolf Richter • Dec 7, 2017
The Fed’s announced plan is to shrink the balance sheet by $10 billion a month in October, November, and December, then accelerate the pace every three months. By October 2018, the Fed would reduce its holdings by up to $50 billion a month and continue at that rate until it deems the level of its holdings “normal” – the new normal, whatever that may turn out to be.
As part of the $10-billion-a-month unwind from October through December, the Fed is supposed to unload $6 billion in Treasury securities a month plus $4 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) a month.
The Fed doesn’t actually sell Treasury securities outright. Instead, it allows some of them, when they mature, to “roll off” the balance sheet without replacement. When the securities mature, the Treasury Department pays the holder the face value. But the Fed, instead of reinvesting the money in new Treasuries, destroys the money – the opposite process of QE, when the Fed created the money to buy securities.
In October, the big day was October 31, when $8.5 billion of Treasuries on the Fed’s books matured. The Fed reinvested $2.5 billion and let $6 billion “roll off.” Hence, the amount of Treasuries fell by about $6 billion from an all-time record $2,465.7 billion on October 25 to $2,459.8 billion on November 1.
As part of QE, the Fed acquired residential MBS guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. Now, as part of its $10-billion-a-month QE-unwind, the Fed is supposed to shed up to $4 billion a month in these MBS.
For the first three months, the QE unwind only removes about $10 billion a month, a negligible amount, given the vast markets and excess liquidity. But it picks up steam every three months. By October 2018, if the plan is still on, the QE unwind will remove $50 billion a month from the markets. This process will do the opposite of what QE had done: it will gradually destroy some of the $3.6 trillion that the Fed had created during QE. And by that time the broader effects of QE – asset price inflation – should also start to reverse.
Reverse mining.
IMHO
This is one of the biggest factors that will affect the economy of America after eight years of massive debt trying to paper over the obama recession.
That no one is reporting on.
Trump is trying to grow the economy with real jobs (manufacturing vs obama coffee slingers) to balance reducing the debt on the Fed books.
Coal mining is back!
“…the obama recession.”
The one that started during the last year of George W. Bush’s term in office (December 2007) and was in full swing on inauguration day in 2009? I guess with a little revisionist history, you can blame this on Obama.
What real world effect does the size of the Fed’s balance sheet have?
For Matt, Al and the boys.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJ-4cKFVC34
Hell has arrived on San Diego’s doorstep.
One of my sons and I were at this very place just last weekend. I’ve often wondered whether it was a frequent burn area, given the geography and the look of the vegetation.
Driving Into Hell’: Residents Describe Evacuating Lilac Fire
By Christina Bravo and Monica Garske
It happened in what felt like seconds.
A North County resident got a call from a friend late Thursday morning telling him the Lilac Fire had ignited near his home, near the intersection of Interstate 15 and state Route 76 near Fallbrook.
He got home just in the nick of time.
“We got here, and — you know, everything happens really fast,” the evacuee told NBC 7. “Next thing you know there Sheriff’s [deputies] are knocking on your door, like, ‘Hey, you gotta go.’”
…
Some nightmares are real.
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/wildfire/sd-no-bonsall-stampede-20171207-story.html
Can’t imagine being near that many frightened horses… they’re such powerful animals.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-socal-fires-20171207-story.html
how about a santa clause rally?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-bangladesh-bank-ny-fed-discuss-suing-manila-032055885–finance.html
equity up 11%
?WTF? can someone help w the math
Despite the steadfast efforts of the used home sellers and home builders lobbies to throw renters under the bus, the Trump tax reform plan offers some hope that renters will face a leveler playing field going forward.
Housing forecast 2018: More money for renters, inventory low
Tim Sullivan, managing principal of Meyers Research, speaks at the 17th Annual Residential Real Estate Conference in early December. (Phillip Molnar/San Diego Union-Tribune)
Phillip Molnar, Reporter
Next year could feature more money for renters but increased difficulty for potential first-time homeowners, said experts at a housing outlook conference at University of San Diego.
The shadow of pending legislation in Congress colored much of the discussion Thursday, as did continued concern over the number of homes being built.
…
More money for renters: The standard deduction in both the House and Senate versions of the tax plan is set to double from $6,350 to $12,000 for individuals and from $12,700 to $24,000 for married couples.
“It’s good for renters, but bad for homeowners,” said Norm Miller, real estate finance chair at the USD School of Business.
…
Dumb question of the day: Would the myriad bubbles that have launched and crashed at a historically high rate of occurrence in the past three decades have played out without the Fed put, QE3, ZIRP, extraordinary accommodation, and other variants of ultraloose monetary policy?
I’m not an expert but IMO no.
But I believe that different people would be in power if that had happened. So those policies were successful for those who remained in power.