December 8, 2017

The Adjustment Might Result In A Full-On Crash

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Back in August, the seven-bed, seven-bath Russian Hill triplex at 949 Lombard, once used to film the first San Francisco season of MTV’s The Real World, popped up for sale, asking a princely but contextually appropriate $6.99 million. Four months later the price has precipitously dropped, landing at $4.89 million in the latest offer.”

“In Stouffville and Keswick, where the houses tend to be newer and there’s not much to distinguish them from competing listings, sales are slow. Cameron Forbes, general manager of ReMax Realtron Realty Inc, points to the example of one Stouffville house listed for sale for about $1-million six weeks ago. At the time, it was the only property in the area around that price level. Since then, three or four very similar houses have arrived on the market. The agent cut the price to about $880,000 but still the buyers aren’t coming to a house that would have gone for $1.1-million in the spring.”

“‘Activity dropped to zero,’ he says of the number of potential buyers who requested showings.”

“Nordea Bank AB won’t keep up with growth in Sweden’s mortgage market as the biggest Nordic lender adopts a more cautious approach, Chief Executive Officer Casper von Koskull said.Sweden’s housing market has dominated economic headlines of late amid signs a price correction is under way. Concerns that the adjustment might result in a full-on crash have hit the currency, with the krona losing more than 5 percent against the euro since the end of August.”

“Stricter mortgage rules have coincided with a big increase in supply, and with households’ finances increasingly stretched, home prices have started to fall. ‘There is a cooling taking place in the Swedish housing market, no doubt,’ von Koskull said.”

“Capital values in Dubai’s residential property market have dropped to their lowest level in four years, according to Consultancy Cluttons. Comparing current unit prices to those at the peak of the market in the third quarter of 2008, it found that Burj Khalifa apartments had fallen in value by 71.2 percent, apartments in Discovery Gardens by 38.5 percent and in Jumeirah Lakes Towers by 31.4 percent. Prices in some districts have come under pressure recently because of the number of newer, cheaper units coming onto the market, Cluttons said.”

“On a recent Sunday morning in the sun-drenched Australian city of Brisbane, about 50 ‘property tourists’ boarded a bus tour with a difference. The group – all local Aussies looking to purchase their first homes – were shuttled to five new apartment projects where brochures promised they could ‘capitalize on international deposit defaults’ and snap up properties at sharp discounts. The homes were mostly being sold by Chinese investors unable to make settlement on their investments as Beijing cracks down on money flowing out of China and restrictions on Australian banks lending to foreign investors bite, the company behind the tour said.”

“‘Getting money out of China is very hard now. That’s a big factor for these discounts,’ said Property Direct founder David Beard, who sold some two-bedroom units on the bus tour at 15-20 percent lower than list prices. ‘Property sales have fallen because of that, and it has got progressively harder to get bank loans in Australia.’”

“While the rules were often flouted in the past, doing so now has become increasingly difficult, some money transfer agents told Reuters. At the same time, under pressure from regulators to douse risky lending in the real estate sector, Australia’s biggest banks stopped loaning money to foreigners. ‘It is almost impossible to send the full (settlement) amount from mainland China,’ said Felix Su, financial adviser at foreign exchange firm KVB Kunlun.”

“The red-hot population growth rate around Denver and Northern Colorado is cooling, and those who are leaving in increasing numbers say they were driven away by rising housing prices, jobs that don’t pay enough and traffic jams. ‘It’s kind of ironic because the reasons why I’m leaving Colorado are the same reasons why I left New Jersey — too much traffic, not making enough money and angry people,’ said Nicole Parkin. ‘The growth of our beautiful city has brought nothing but increased traffic, angry entitled transplants who have no respect, and a cost of living that is through the roof.’”

“Because the recession hit New Jersey homeowners particularly hard, the Garden State faces an abundance of short sale homes — homes that sell for less than the amount that the current owner owes on their mortgage. ‘We do have more inventory than Philadelphia,’ said Patricia Rohan, a broker at Weichert Realtors in Burlington County. ‘But the number of short sales on the market is probably throwing the number off. They sit longer on the market than regular homes that are not distressed. The short sales need permission from the bank to sell,’ Rohan said, so there is more ‘red tape.’ As a result, she said, some buyers will stay away — meaning the houses will linger.”

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-08 09:36:06

Keller, TX Housing Prices Crater 10%YOY

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-08 09:37:14

‘Sweden’s housing market has dominated economic headlines of late amid signs a price correction is under way. Concerns that the adjustment might result in a full-on crash…’

Pretty calm about the possibility if you think about it. Shack loan rates were historically low because the prices were historically stable. Decade after decade. Now one doesn’t even blink to see 20% up or down. “Oh, it might be a full on crash, millions of peoples finances destroyed, watta ya gonna do?”

This is insanity people. It doesn’t have to be this way.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-08 11:08:57

Yet people around the globe have been conditioned into believing that this is normal and that housing is supposed to be utterly unaffordable.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-08 11:37:37

“Shack loan rates were historically low because the prices were historically stable. Decade after decade. Now one doesn’t even blink to see 20% up or down.”

This considerable volatility is seen in almost all asset prices these days, the world over. 3 months ago, Bitcoin* wasn’t even worth $5,000. Just yesterday, there was a $5,000 swing in price. A year ago Bitcoin was worth $770.

*Calling Bitcoin an asset is generous, in my opinion. The more I have think about it, the sillier the whole notion is. There’s too much secrecy and too little accountability. It’s worse than Beanie Babies or tulips. At least those were tangible.

Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-09 07:12:57

Some say it is going to $1million.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-09 14:39:58

Those are probably the people who bought it at $18,000. It’s down to $14,880 as I type. LOL.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-08 09:39:15

Oh BTW, I remembered oxides rules for a bubble and there can’t be a bubble in bitcoin cuz there are no negative amortization loans involved. Wait - there aren’t negative amortization loans in Dubai either.

‘Burj Khalifa apartments had fallen in value by 71.2 percent’

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-08 10:12:15

Poor Donk. Poor poor Donk.

Comment by oxide
2017-12-08 11:33:22

So what’s the difference between a neg-am loan and Yellenbucks?

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-12-08 12:14:31

That’s like asking what’s the difference between helium and hydrogen.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-12-08 12:53:07

Only hydrogen is likely to become oxide? :-P

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Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-08 13:07:23

that’s a pretty watered down joke.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-12-08 15:27:01

“Only hydrogen is likely to become oxide?”

Dihydrogen oxide…following an explosion.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-12-08 15:40:11

One is flammable, and one is inflammable, right? ;)

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Comment by Professor Bear
2017-12-08 18:08:12

One is flammable, the other is inert.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-12-10 11:52:25

That joke flew right over you head like a hydrogen balloon, PB!

Comment by taxpayer
2017-12-08 09:51:46

RE: Denver,they didn’t mention pooh on the sidewalks
none here so far in 22151

Comment by Jingle Male
2017-12-09 05:09:18

My son was walking down Market Street in San Francisco last week and some crazy homeless guy dropped his trousers and dumped right on the middle of the broad sidewalk. He looked at people like he was proud of his accomplishment….

Comment by tresho
2017-12-09 09:42:27

He looked at people like he was proud of his accomplishment…. Video, or it didn’t happen. :)

Comment by rms
2017-12-09 10:44:36

Sounds something like India, IIRC.

Comment by taxpayer
2017-12-08 09:52:54

re: your display ad
do you think straight white RE would be allowed?

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-08 10:39:14


Comment by jeff
Comment by ibbots
2017-12-08 10:21:45

Frisco’s $2 billion Wade Park project facing legal woes for millions in unpaid bills.

A big chunk of Frisco’s famous $5 billion mile has hit a bump in the road.

It’s been more than three years since ground was broken for the $2 billion Wade Park project on the Dallas North Tollway.

Work recently stopped altogether, with two uncompleted retail buildings — along with a huge hole in the ground — being all there is to show for the ambitious deal.

Well, at least they got themselves a hole in the ground.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-12-08 15:41:25

With the hole already dug, things can only go up, right?

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-08 10:40:15

Realtors are liars.

Comment by SFMF
2017-12-08 10:45:58

NYT today:

“The American job market is the strongest it’s been in a decade, and arguably the strongest since 2000. The United States has now added jobs for 86 consecutive months — a downward blip in September was later revised to show a small gain — and the unemployment rate is lower than it ever got during the last boom, which ended when the housing bubble burst. Even wage growth, long the weak spot in an otherwise strong recovery, is showing signs of picking up.”

This doesn’t sound like we’re in the midst of a recession to me.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-08 11:20:48

Record homelessness and opioid overdose deaths. Thanks, Obama.

Comment by SFMF
2017-12-08 11:26:31

I heard that homelessness came back in Jan 2017 after taking an 8 year hiatus between Jan 2009 and Dec 2016. And also drug overdoses are yuuuge now, but amazingly also disappeared in Jan 2009 only to resurface in 2017.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-12-08 11:34:06


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Comment by Oxide
2017-12-08 20:34:12

The opioid crisis didn’t suddenly resurface because of Trump. It resurfaced due to the death of Prince in April of 2016. Huge boost in awareness.

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Comment by steadykat
2017-12-08 11:20:59

I’ve always been a cynic. However, the events of the last ten years has shown me that I wasn’t even close to understanding just how screwed up this Country truly is.

This chart tells me everything that I need to know about our “economy” and this BS “recovery” that everyone keeps telling me about.

America is irredeemable.

Comment by Puggs
2017-12-08 11:22:55

I’m in publishing and work load has never returned to pre-2008 levels. Our business is still down 25%. Lots of consolidation and closed publishers. I’ve paid off a most debt and shored up lots of cash after 2008.

Lesson learn’d.

Don’t be caught when the tide goes out again.

Comment by SFMF
2017-12-08 11:33:10

Publishing is a dying industry and has nothing to do with economic conditions. Might as well fret that travel agents aren’t doing well.

Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-08 13:05:08

Hey Puggs.

I’m in a business that supplies rotating equipment. My end of it goes into high tech (no not social media kind of high tech) factories. We still see overcapacity everywhere. Nothing much has improved since 2008. Everyone has more debt though.

I know some engineers that tell me the job market really stinks (no they don’t write software). I am very fortunate that I don’t need to look for a job, because like you I’ve been socking away savings for a long time.

Comment by jane
2017-12-09 01:12:39

Re: debt and housing

Well, I’m in a merry pickle! I reeaallly wanted to get out of the pressure cooker sooner rather than later.

However, Son #2 has come to his senses and decided that his future requires an education. He’s coming to Northern Virginia to become one with the ships on the rising tide. Guess who he is going to live with, and who will to float the school expenses.

I’m happy to help, though it’s a planning shock because…

For the first time in my life, I’m in a company that is circling the bathtub drain, run by gen-u-ine asset strippers, an honest to goodness third tier firm. I joined a FIRST tier firm. With the speed of a three card monte play, it was disaggregated, each part put out for bid.

Never thought I would be in a Situation. The bonuses cascading down from the asset-stripping stop - abruptly - at the bureaucracy layer. Directly above me.

I am almost tempted to mind my manners.

Y’all who have rid yourselves of the debt overhang: I’m re-upping for another tour.

Regardless of whether or not I overpaid - given the coming crash - at least I have ONE more-or-less fixed expense. One argument in favor of buying a shack.

Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-09 07:31:34

A sad tale Jane. Gladly giving your son what you don’t have. Long term debt on short term instability. Best of luck.

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-09 14:44:01

Screw that, jane. You’re a smart woman, send him into the trades. He can make more money and save than he ever will going into debt for an education unless he’s going to be an MD or something. If he got into the plumbers and pipefitters union he could save $30k per year while living with you and working.

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Comment by redmondjp
2017-12-10 11:55:19


The best job I think is an electrician - four years out of high school and you are fully-licensed in the state, in a job that cannot be outsourced. Doesn’t matter what level - residential, commercial, industrial, or utility, take your pick.

And I have an engineering degree and am recommending this to people who ask.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-08 11:28:30

With 100 million unemployed and the labor force participation rate at 37 year lows?
There is no better definition than that my friend.

Comment by rms
2017-12-08 19:18:54

“This doesn’t sound like we’re in the midst of a recession to me.”

I’m in San Jose again… no sign of recession here.

It really is different here. :)

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-08 22:28:25

No sign of a recession around here, either (Seattle). Traffic up the wazoo, stores, restaurants, everything packed to the hilt. My favorite part of recessions is the lighter traffic. It’s nuts lately.

Comment by oxide
2017-12-09 05:59:50

DC burbs. Lots of Now Hiring signs for lucky ducky jobs. Several of my co-workers jumped from the government to The Dark Side (as we like to say), so there are some high-skill cubicle jobs available too. Highways from the outer burbs are packed with newer cars. Smaller roads in the leafy inner burbs are packed with beaters and white vans going to first to 7-11 (7-11 is going gangbusters) and then on to contracting jobs mostly renovations. Grocery stores and Wal-Mart are packed too. Not much recession here either.

Comment by somedewd
2017-12-09 06:50:45

Sounds like retail rubes being sucked in right before the slaughter. Happens with each cycle when participants feel “things are different this time”. One need only look at household debt levels and lack of wage growth to understand what fuels this house of cards.

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Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-09 07:20:28

You’re talking long math. It is beyond many of the commenters above.

Comment by Jingle Male
2017-12-09 14:03:06

15 years? If you bought in 2009, they’ll be free and clear in 7 more years.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-09 18:20:39


Walnut Grove, CA Housing Prices Plunge 29% YOY

Comment by SW
2017-12-08 11:01:23

Hi Everybody.

Hope you’re all getting ready to have a great Christmas.

I was scouring some California home price trends this morning trying to ascertain what’s really happening in the local markets here.

I came across CAR’s data analysis up to October of this year.

What I find really interesting is that NAR, CAR and local CA realtors all say that inventory in the lower price tiers is very low AND that lower priced homes are being sold very quickly.

However, I find that the data seems to indicate that both parts of that AND statement are not satisfied (just to go a little computer geek on you).

Slide 8 in the deck shows sales down YoY for all houses under $300k.

Slide 17 shows active listings down for all houses under $300k.

So, is it possible that they are misinterpreting the data. Perhaps the inventory in under $300k houses is low partly because they aren’t selling anymore.

Let me know what you think.

“Realtors are liars.” There Apt 401. I saved you some keystrokes.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-12-08 11:14:22

How long does it take to sell a sub 300K house in SoCal? Is it taking longer than last year, about the same or less? Does this number vary by zipcode?

I seem to recall from the previous crash that the first SoCal markets that tanked were the ones in places like San Bernardino, Victorville, etc.

Comment by SFMF
2017-12-08 11:24:22

Does sub 300K in SoCal even exist?

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-12-08 12:03:50

Yeah, that’s what I was going to say too. In the markets I watch I’m sure sub 300k listings are way down…because they are all 400k listings now.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2017-12-08 11:16:04

Perhaps the inventory in under $300k houses is low partly because they aren’t selling anymore.

You need to see days on market data to show that. If the DOM is really, really low, then it would be hard to say that they aren’t selling anymore.

The numbers show:

Fewer homes under $300k selling as compared to 2016, but also a lot fewer listed under this price.
Increased median home prices (meaning there is a shift away from lower priced homes).
Overall number of listings is ~10% below last year (but a lot fewer under $300k–there are slightly more over $3MM).
“Months of inventory” for all housing in CA is below last year (including homes under $300k).

Hard to see this as being consistent with weak demand for lower priced homes.

Comment by oxide
2017-12-08 11:39:57

It could be that so many $300K homes were snapped up that the few that remain are trashed tear-downs in a slum and no one wants to fix them.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-08 11:53:28

Compton, CA Real Estate & Homes for Sale
203 Homes

Compton, CA Real Estate & Homes for Sale
203 Homes sorted by Price Reduced

One chosen at random:

413 S Thorson Ave, Compton, CA 90221
2 beds 1 bath 750 sqft
For Sale

11/26/17 Price change $325,000-6.9% $433
11/20/17 Listed for sale $349,000+482% $465
05/29/09 Sold $60,000-46.2% $80
12/13/08 Listing removed $111,625 $148
12/10/08 Listed for sale $111,625-58.4% $148
08/28/08 Sold $268,127+155% $357
06/17/02 Sold $105,000-26.8% $140
11/19/01 Sold: Foreclosed to lender $143,508+7.9% $191
12/29/00 Sold $133,000+69.4% $177
08/17/00 Sold $78,500-14.2% $104
09/30/99 Sold: Foreclosed to lender $91,477 $121

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-12-08 11:54:41

But rental watch says it’s only been on the market 18 days! Hurry and snap up this peach of a shack.

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Comment by Lurker
2017-12-08 14:31:24

Gads, that price history is the most pitiful illustration of the bubble I’ve seen. At least 2 foreclosures (probably 3rd in 2009) in 20 years. That one house has ruined a lot of lives.

+155%, -77%, +482%, for a basic necessity like housing. Lottery tickets would be a safer investment.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-08 13:04:24



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Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-08 13:09:58

Some trivia …

“For Compton, we found that the violent crime rate is one of the highest in the nation, across communities of all sizes (both large and small). Violent offenses tracked included rape, murder and non-negligent manslaughter, armed robbery, and aggravated assault, including assault with a deadly weapon.

Source: Compton Crime Rates and Statistics - NeighborhoodScout

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-08 13:24:48

Compton was once the murder capital of the country. Here’s an article that gives a hint as to why that was so …

“According to a series of groundbreaking reports by the San Jose Mercury News, for the better part of a decade, a San Francisco Bay Area drug ring, comprised of CIA and U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency agents and informants, sold tons of cocaine to the Crips and Bloods street gangs of Los Angeles.
Millions of dollars in drug profits were then funneled to the Fuerza Democratica Nicaraguense (Nicaraguan Democratic Force), the largest of several anti-Communists commonly called the Contras. The 5,000-man FDN was created in mid-1981 and run by both American and Nicaraguan CIA agents in its losing war against Nicaragua’s Sandinista government, the Cuban-supported socialists who had overthrown U.S.-backed dictator Anastasio Somoza in 1979.
This CIA-backed drug network opened the first pipeline between Columbia’s cocaine cartels and the Black neighborhoods of Compton and Los Angeles, according to the Mercury News.
In time, the cocaine that flooded Los Angeles helped spark a ‘crack explosion’ in urban America and provided the cash and connections needed for Los Angeles’s gangs to buy Uzi sub-machine guns, AK-47 rifles, and other assault weapons that would fuel deadly gang turf wars, drive-by shootings, murders and robberies — courtesy of the U.S. government, according to the article.”

Link to follow.

Comment by Mr. Banker
Comment by trader jack
2017-12-08 14:53:38

as an old appraiser I was trying to figure this one out
Looks like a garage converted to a room and then a small addition to the left rear, but there are signs that it has probably been flipped ,and of course we have the big barred windows in the front, but not In the back.

I don’t think I would have approved it for purchase back in the day, not even if it was in Berkeley. LOL

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-08 17:28:49

Endorsing a mortgage amount isn’t appraising.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2017-12-08 23:05:52

“Endorsing a mortgage amount isn’t appraising.”

You can say that again. And, I wouldn’t even buy that shack for $60k. Hell, I don’t even want to drive through that neighborhood during the day.

Comment by oxide
2017-12-09 06:08:00


I looked it up on satellite google maps. There is an addition of the left rear which is almost as big as the original house.

Clearly an ugly neighborhood: overflowing trash cans, old cars, cars hanging off the driveway into the street, chain-link fencing everywhere. Built in 1947. I wonder who the original owners were back in 1947…

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-12-08 18:07:05

“For Sale

Seems pretty durn affordable for California…but then:

“11/26/17 Price change $325,000-6.9% $433
11/20/17 Listed for sale $349,000+482% $465
05/29/09 Sold $60,000 -46.2% $80

From $80 to $465 or even $433 per square feet
in just six years seems pretty durn hopeful!

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Comment by SW
2017-12-09 09:28:28

I think looking at days on market is over complicating things. Ben pulled out Compton. That’s one example. My folks live north of Sacramento. The average middle income house there is selling for $250k right now. Decent houses in safe neighborhoods. These houses are included in the CAR stats.

To top it off, I’ve even seen SM posts from realtors up there saying they need more homes in that price range to list because there’s a shortage. It seems the data doesn’t support that.

My guess is it’s a combination of affordability for those who haven’t bought already and move up affordability/supply for those who would be selling these under $300k homes.

It’s just data and data never tells the whole story.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-12-09 04:22:32

Hey Donk…..

Comment by XTC
2017-12-08 11:28:11

Hopefully the MID is eliminated in the tax plan and home prices crash and prices in southern California come back to earth.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-12-08 12:13:13

Why is it again that everyone wants to live, and own multiple investment properties, in SoCal?

Wildfires threaten several thousand homes in Southern California
By Karma Allen
Morgan Winsor
Dec 6, 2017, 10:02 PM ET
Gene Blevins/Reuters
4 major fires continue to burn and endanger residents in California

Firefighters in Southern California began battling a new wildfire Wednesday that engulfed an area of Los Angeles near the Getty Center and the Skirball Cultural Center.

The brush fire ignited around 5 a.m. CT near 405 Freeway and Mulholland Drive in the Brentwood neighborhood of Los Angeles. More than 350 firefighters were on the scene with helicopters hovering above as the so-called Skirball fire was 5 percent contained as of Wednesday night.

Authorities have shut down northbound 405 for an “undetermined period” as a result of the blaze and ordered mandatory evacuations for parts of the affluent Bel-Air neighborhood, according to the Los Angeles Fire Department.

The smoke can even be seen from space — the International Space Station shared photos of the fires on Twitter Wednesday.

Comment by oxide
2017-12-09 06:19:07

Stay safe, Bear, isn’t one of those fires less than 30 miles from you? Get your family and your important papers in the car and leave NOW if you can.

Comment by somedewd
2017-12-09 07:22:11

Question: How long before deep-pocketed developers swoop in the rebuild on the same land that continues to burn over and over and over and over….?

Question2: How long before debt donkeys swoop in to buy these new construction crapboxes?

Question3: How quickly would this entire process short circuit if taxpayers didn’t subsidize homeowner’s insurance?

Also applicable to beachfront property.

Comment by oxide
2017-12-09 08:44:44

And that’s the sad part of all this. Say what you will, old houses themselves are just more attractive than new houses. The Florida Keys were full of beautiful little shotgun cottages, draped with wisteria or tropical vines. Now I bet all the rebuilds will be zero-lot-line flat windowed cheap-looking cookie cutter crap.

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-08 11:33:34

Alameda, CA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY

Comment by snake charmer
2017-12-08 12:21:51

“In Stouffville and Keswick, where the houses tend to be newer and there’s not much to distinguish them from competing listings, sales are slow. Cameron Forbes, general manager of ReMax Realtron Realty Inc, points to the example of one Stouffville house listed for sale for about $1-million six weeks ago.”

Is that pronounced “Stuff-ville”? That name would be perfect for a twenty-first century consumer economy dependent upon people buying things they don’t need.

Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-08 12:28:58

the example of one Stouffville house…

The article says prices in the GTA are headed for a 20% decline by year’s end.

Where’s richmondjp and Jingle Mail to tell us that this cherry picked tidbit is ridiculous?

Comment by Howard L
2017-12-08 12:56:05

What gets to me is always hearing, oh it will crash, or this is not good if prices fall. But the realtors and Nars never say how bad it will be if prices go too high. I say banks need more regulations, government needs less lobbying.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-08 13:38:03

Parker, CO Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As National Housing Demand Plummets To 20 Year Lows

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-12-08 14:06:16

OT, but interesting article…especially the comment section.

Lots of folks are claiming that Obama deserves the credit because the strategy was created under his watch. The claims are probably from the same folks that gave Obama all the OBL credit, when the work was done by special forces who were given massive resources by GWB.

In any event, does a good strategy matter if you don’t give the military the ability to enact that strategy?

I recall hearing about H.R. McMaster’s ascension to general despite lots of pushback from senior commanders. My understanding was that the pushback came because the way he made decisions for his troops didn’t sit well with folks who would have preferred to micro-manage him. But, it was the quicker decision making that made his counter-insurgency strategy really work. Ultimately, it took Petraeus flying back from Iraq to personally oversee his promotion to make sure he was made a general.

So, going back to the USA Today article, it seems like giving credit to Trump for allowing the military the flexibility to execute on the anti-ISIS plan is warranted. And regardless of when the plan was conceived, it is certainly believable that Obama micromanaging the military could have made that plan less successful.

(BTW, an old friend of mine was a high level SEAL, who’s comment about Obama was effectively that they felt underutilized–he said that you would be amazed what could be done with a small team of SEALs if they were just given the chance)

Comment by azdude
2017-12-08 17:52:21

real estate prices must keep going up for the system to keep going.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-08 18:02:57

This is how wealth is created.


Comment by sod
2017-12-08 18:05:51

“Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to sell a house to everybody you meet.”

- NAR Rules of Engagement

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-12-08 18:46:04

They missed that one in my class but I’m sure they’d have liked it.

Comment by hllnwlz
2017-12-08 18:21:36

Went to Disneyland to celebrate our 4 year old’s birthday yesterday. It was okay in the morning, but after 2 p.m. it was packed. PACKED. On a Thursday afternoon, with no holiday weekend. And it was packed largely with people all carrying an annual pass… which you can now buy for low monthly payments of $20.17 a month.

My husband said, “The economy is on fire.”

I said, “This is easy credit at work. These people have no money; look at their clothes. And Disney passports and purchases like it are why; it’s all credit-driven. All they’re doing is stealing from their future by spending every penny and then some in consumption now.”

But how can you blame them? They’ll never own a house, probably gonna work until they die (we can argue causation there, but whatevs); might as well YOLO it.

Earlier, my husband had noticed how all of the young women with passes have a similar look: head-to-toe Disney gear, lots of make-up, trying to look cute, but overweight and underdressed. SoCal Cinderellas, if you please. His comment was that they wouldn’t need the Disney fantasy if they worked out, ate better, and actively pursued a meaningful relationship.

But I gotta say, for $20 a month (+$97 down), the princess fantasy probably feels better, for now at least.

I’m so sick of this bubble. I’m sick of the lies it perpetuates, the malinvestment, and the hopelessness of young people who feel that the low monthly payment fantasy is a better choice than sacrificing and saving for a better future. Who in their right mind would at an effective negative interest rate?

I’ve got to admit, our saving and skimping (we brought our meals, plural, to avoid the exorbitant food prices) seems stupid when the interest on our savings account is outstripped by inflation and we are not BTC/WS investors for fear of losing it all and we keep watch housing prices levitate. I like to think that even if that makes us suckers, at least we’re ethical ones who refuse to contribute to this ponzi.

Comment by sod
2017-12-08 18:38:14

Nice post. I’ve found myself sort of nonsensically thinking of everything in monthly payment terms. Not that I’m in debt or buy anything on credit but just for “fun”. For example, I bought two new tires for my 17 year old truck the other day for $275 and I’m thinking in my head while the guy’s trying to sell me the hazard insurance, “$275? That’s like what, $22, $23 bucks a month for the next whole freaking year for a couple of tires?”

Comment by rms
2017-12-08 19:22:08

I said, “This is easy credit at work. These people have no money; look at their clothes. And Disney passports and purchases like it are why; it’s all credit-driven. All they’re doing is stealing from their future by spending every penny and then some in consumption now.”

Great observation!

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-12-08 19:28:05

“All they’re doing is stealing from their future by spending every penny and then some in consumption now.”


“But how can you blame them?”

I don’t blame them; this is how they have been conditioned. My fond hope is that these people you described are prolific breeders.

Breed their offspring into existence and then turn their offspring over to our wonderful educational system (finishing schools I like to think of our educational system: Twelve years of schooling and these people, as thinking human beings, are pretty much finished).


Comment by KareBear
2017-12-09 01:19:01


You’re right. 100% right. We’ve made similar observations at Disneyland and other places. It makes me anxious and scared for them when things go south. Many of them probably have very expensive iPhones/other devices as well and you’re right, it’s probably all about their monthly payment. Stealing from their future for instant gratification today. Sad. The way some people are living doesn’t make sense and seems foolish. Hopefully they’ll learn as we all go through these economic cycles. I can relate to your comment about how making wise choices by not contributing to the ponzi seems suckerish, but we’ll always come out ahead by being smart and patient. We can hopefully weather the storms and be well positioned to buy the things we NEED and have been patiently waiting for on the dip. The last time the economy crashed everything was on sale and it was great but only for those who had cash, high down payments and excellent credit… oh, and a job.

Comment by oxide
2017-12-09 06:24:36

When you were at Disneyland, were those underdressed overweight young women sporting a carpet of tats?

I really dislike tats. The young women can recover from being overweight and underdressed, but you never recover from a tat.

Comment by somedewd
2017-12-09 07:28:25

Tats are to millenial girls (won’t say women because they act like children) what lumberjack bears are to millenial boys.

Comment by oxide
2017-12-09 08:27:22

Don’t go to a Renaissance Faire on one of the warmer days in September/October. I did that and it was yikes, underdressed wall-to-wall tats.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-09 07:36:41

There once was a race who only wore tats, the Picts (Picture people). They were displaced by the Celts, who were displaced by the Romans (Brits) who are now being displaced by the Muslims. Nothing new.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-08 19:47:09

Kailua Kona, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 13$ YOY On Ballooning Mortgage Defaults

Comment by jeff
2017-12-08 20:02:06

“The Adjustment Might Result In A Full-On Crash”

Did we get a “A Full-On Crash” in the U.S. housing market in 2007 - 2009?

I am of the opinion that we did not. It was not allowed to happen.

Comment by BlueSkye ⚓
2017-12-09 04:34:20

Here is the British explanation of how not to be a predator of the fairer sex explained in terms of serving tea.

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-12-09 05:08:54

Vancouver’s latest tool for housing the homeless getting rough reception

VANCOUVER — Construction has hardly begun at the first of Vancouver’s temporary modular housing projects and already pushback is mounting against the city’s latest strategy to house its homeless.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-12-09 08:01:41

Emeryville, CA Housing Prices Plunge 14% YOY; Local Economy Accelerates As A Result

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