The Spiraling Price Of Buying Turns Expectations Upside Down
A report from Mansion Global. “The real estate market will be among the sectors most impacted by the $1.5 trillion tax bill passed in the U.S. Wednesday. Many real estate experts have been up in arms about the changes, with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) initially warning that it could lower home prices by up to 10% in every state. An oversupply in luxury housing, plus a limited pool of buyers, has already slowed sales in that sector. And tax woes have only increased hesitation from buyers.”
“‘People are going to be trying to figure out what it means for them,’ said Donna Olshan, president of New York City-based Olshan Realty. ‘It’s certainly not a positive for New York. Almost all my clients pay six figures in New York state and New York City taxes,’ said Ms. Olshan, who has clients in both Manhattan and suburban Westchester, New York. ‘What does that mean for them?’”
The Los Angeles Times in California. “The Republican tax bill reduces the ability of home buyers to deduct mortgage interest, which will be a hit to home shoppers in Southern California and the Bay Area, where housing costs are sky-high. Fadel Lawandy, a director at Chapman University’s Hoag Center for Real Estate and Finance, pointed out that the bill also caps property and state income tax deductions at a combined $10,000 — about $8,500 less than the average deduction taken by Californians in 2015. Combined with the new cap on mortgage interest deductions, that could mean some households will have less to spend on housing, leading to price declines in some wealthy areas, Lawandy said. ‘It will impact the high luxury-end market for sure,’ he said.”
From San Francisco Curbed in California. “It is one more case where the spiraling price of buying in the Bay Area turns values and expectations upside down. Docking the mortgage cap is supposed to be a hit at luxury real estate. However, as Jordan Weissman wrote for Slate, buyers ’stuck house-hunting in San Francisco or New York’ end up swept up by default. Because any new rule aimed at high-end luxury homes is going to hit most of San Francisco—even the teardowns.”
The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “Patrick O’Connor, a Houston-based property tax consultant, said prices in the luxury market could slide by 5 to 10 percent as a result of the smaller mortgage interest deduction. A homeowner with a home assessed at $1 million is expected to pay $3,700 more in federal taxes next year, he said. ‘It makes a difference,’ O’Connor said.”
“The bigger impact in Houston would be the $10,000 cap on property tax deductions, said Jim Gaines, an economist with the Texas A&M real estate center. Texas, which has no state income tax, has some of the highest property taxes in the nation. As many as a quarter of houses in Houston could have property taxes above the $10,000 threshold, Gaines said. ‘Quite frankly, that will be the biggest impact that affects Texas,’ he said.”
The Asbury Park Press in New Jersey. “Congress neared approval of a sweeping tax bill on Wednesday that analysts said could give the economy a short-term jolt, but in New Jersey and other high-tax states could slow down the housing industry. It sparked fears that the bill could cause home values in some markets to take a 10 percent hit, according to a report by Moody’s Analytics. For some consumers trying to decide whether it makes sense to buy a home, or even move, ‘this kind of rejiggers that whole equation,’ said Robert Oppenheimer, the past-president of the New Jersey Association of Realtors.”
“What becomes of New Jersey’s housing market would be a wild card. One grim scenario: It would accelerate the migration of high-income New Jerseyans to other states, which have lower taxes and aren’t fretting over the change. The impact wouldn’t stop there. The slowdown in home sales would ripple through the economy, hurting contractors and home furnishing stores that get a jolt every time a home is sold.”
“‘Maybe New Jersey ought to take a fresh look at our overall tax structure and find ways to reduce the local property tax reliance and shift to broader-based (system) like sales taxes or corporate taxes so you get more people able to take advantage of that $10,000 cap,’ said Peter Reinhart, director of the Kislak Real Estate Institute at Monmouth University in West Long Branch. ‘The deep concern is that New Jersey, already a high-taxed state, will have even higher taxes and will that accelerate people leaving the state?’”
From North Jersey. “The alarm bells are sounding in New Jersey. They have been set off by the new tax reform law Congress approved this week. But it can be a good thing. The new tax bill will have almost zero impact on ‘the working poor.’ Only 40 percent of taxpayers in the state claim the state and local deduction so they are unaffected by the law. The real impact will hurt the suburban middle class – which have been the target of local, county and state politicians for decades.”
“We did this to ourselves – so if state politicians want to be mad at anyone, they should be angry at themselves. Year after year, New Jersey’s property tax burden on homeowners has risen and has been crushing middle-class families and harming business owners for years. Nevertheless, Trenton legislators, school boards and mayors have ignored the taxpayers’ cries for help. Perhaps now – thanks to federal tax reform – we have the impetus we need for a tax revolt in New Jersey unlike anything this state has seen since Jim Florio was dumped out of statehouse.”
Hillsboro Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/hillsboro-beach-fl/market-trends/
Yes. This is what needs to happen. Combination of increased inventory and decreased pricing.
‘Almost all my clients pay six figures in New York state and New York City taxes,’ said Ms. Olshan, who has clients in both Manhattan and suburban Westchester, New York. ‘What does that mean for them?’
Sounds like they were already fooked Donna. More fooked?
“What does that mean for them?”
Move?
‘What does that mean for them?’
You know precisely what it means……. Get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be less tomorrow for decades to come.
“Almost all my clients pay six figures in New York state and New York City taxes,’ said Ms. Olshan”
That is NY state and NYC problem, not a federal tax code problem, Ms. Olshan.
‘It is one more case where the spiraling price of buying in the Bay Area turns values and expectations upside down’
Shack prices should never, ever “spiral.” And for how many years have they?
I think I like the overall thrust of this tax bill:
– More incentives for the productive economy
– Less incentives for non-value adding stuff like real estate
I agree, and for those reasons. Corporations need to put their savings to productive use, and not use it to pay off lobbyists/bribe politicians or for stock buybacks. Tho the latter could prove useful in mitigating any future stock market collapse
There are things I would change if it were up to me: no child write-offs, HSAs, even more inducements for small businesses. ALSO -tax cut percentages that would be the same for all brackets (3-4% savings for everyone who earns a paycheck).
I am a bot shocked that I’m liking something Paul Ryan is up to - he wants Trump to immediately begin a reworking of entitlements. Trump should move on it - could use entitlement savings to begin working on infrastructure. A good use of taxpayer money rather than throwing it down the drain.
Corporations need to put their savings to productive use
buying lobbyists is most often the most productive use of their money, FOR THEM! power will always be sold to the highest bidder. the only way to stop the abuse is to take away, or greatly reduce government power. then there will be little or no power for the lobbyists to buy. then most of the corruption will end.
+100000000
“..the only way to stop the abuse is to take away, or greatly reduce government power.”
You and I will always be in agreement on this, tj.
Individual liberty for all requires a small government. Without individual liberty, we have nothing.
It was sad seeing companies like Sears doing buybacks rather than trying to improve their model.
How much can Sears possibly be paying in taxes? I thought they were losing money, not making a profit.
And less incentive to borrow.
“An oversupply in luxury housing, plus a limited pool of buyers, has already slowed sales in that sector. And tax woes have only increased hesitation from buyers.”
You mean the buyers are saying “Whoa is me!”
Homeless crisis in USA as reported by real journalists:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/05/america-homeless-population-2017-official-count-crisis
I dunno, that picture of the guy in Waikiki makes homeless look idyllic. Nice view, sand, tat and Nike’s.
“Most of the increase across the country is driven by people living in doorways, tents and RVs as opposed to in shelters.”
I had an interesting conversation with a girl running next to me on the treadmill yesterday. She is a mom of 4 and their family just got finished living in an RV for the past 18 months. These are affluent people who did this by choice, but she saw some very interesting stuff. It’s interesting that both some very poor people and some very wealthy people are sidestepping traditional housing options.
“sidestepping traditional housing options…”
Not traditional exactly, more like way overpriced compared to normal. Sidestepping is a great way to save a lot of money while you are working, and drastically reduce expenses while not working.
OT, but congratulations to Charles Ortel and Jason Goodman on their nominations for both a Peabody and a Polk award for their investigation and exposure of the many evil and illegal facets of the global scam known as the Clinton Foundation.
The great thing about Charles Ortel is how he can make some of this really dry, complex financial stuff sound interesting and he can keep your attention engaged for a couple of hours.
Outside of the frothiest metros, virtually all houses are still under the 750K limit. How could the new cap affect their prices?
Sounds to me more the the REIC is looking for an excuse, as they know that the bubble’s popping is imminent. This way when it pops, they can blame it on the tax bill instead of admitting that they nurtured a bubble.
It would be funny to see places like the Bay Area crash while sales in flyover soar.
Yep, and it was never just one straw that broke the camels back, but a myriad of factors - scrutinization of all cash deals, rising interest rates, capital controls by other countries, etc.
All the froth in crypto signals to me we are watching money desperately search for a place to die. Thanks yellen, draghi and you idiots in china and japan that printed like crazy! If only they end up hanging from lampposts, with passersby spitting on them in celebration.
All the froth in crypto signals to me we are watching money desperately search for a place to die.
Well put. I’ve kind of wondered if one of the reason central bankers haven’t put the kibosh on the crypto craze is because this might end up being a useful way to suck out all that extra liquidity produced via QE.
And remember it’s not the value of the house, it’s the value of the mortgage. So with a 10% downpayment, an $825K house will still get the full deduction.
I don’t know the data, but I’d bet no more than 5% of houses sold in 2017 were above $825K nationally.
And if you can afford a mortgage of $750K plus an extra $2K a year in taxes isn’t going to change you life.
“if you can afford a mortgage of $750K…”
Interesting use of the word “afford” to describe someone who is in a big black hole of debt.
“Outside of the frothiest metros, virtually all houses are still under the 750K limit. How could the new cap affect their prices?”
Second houses not serving as rental property are going to get hammered, as the $750K limit applies to total mortgages, primary house + 2nd house (same as before except it used to be $1 million) plus no more deducting interest on HELOCs (formerly $100K ceiling). Also, until now, property taxes were fully deductible even for 3rd+ houses. The $10K cap is another nail in the 2nd+ house coffin, as many of these ponzis pay more than $10K in state income tax alone, so essentially $0 deduction for property taxes on all their houses.
Combine that with 6 more federal funds interest rate increases in 2018-2019, along with QT - $30 billion in Q4-2017, $420 billion in 2018, $600 billion annually in 2019+, along with Uncle Scam’s massive borrowings for the previously budgeted deficits + the tax cuts for the korporations and the rich, we should see the 10 year US Treasury climbing above 4%, which will absolutely crush these housedebtors, the more stretched and leveraged, the bigger the CRUSH, especially the fools with variable rates. Fools unable to pay their fixed rate loans anymore looking for a greater fool will discover they were the final fool.
I am excited that they popped this friggin bubble, and we are FINALLY going to witness this house of cards implode, as I have been waiting patiently alongside many of you since 2005. And this time there won’t be a TARP, especially after the mid-term elections next year, even Trump will realize he’s out in 2020 and he’s got nothing to lose by letting this bubble implode. And I pray this time there is no IRS waiving the forgiveness of debt 1099s from the lenders.
Debtors who have lived beyond their means for decades overwhelming the bankruptcy courts, MBAs scurrying about like cockroaches not knowing what to do, “affluent” debtors jumping off bridges and buildings, my kind of entertainment.
Neil, please pass the popcorn.
There’s a lot of ways this could play out. I remember when the big change happened in the 80’s. At first there was a lot of guessing. Then some types of investments got steamrolled, like apartments. So we’ll have to see. But a bubble is largely psychological. And the REIC took a hit.
It could change the landscape of the cities and states attitudes toward taxes.
It could change the landscape of the cities and states attitudes toward taxes.”
THIS is the thing. There has been some griping that this tax bill won’t amount to much for most people.
Are we sure about that?
What we don’t receive in our wallets may be less important than potential attitudes and philosophies.
It’s interesting. It’ll be different, but not massively so. Easier to digest for what may be necessarily down the road. Foaming a different runway.
“…FINALLY going to witness this house of cards implode…”
Can anyone name *one* other consumer product which considers rising prices a good thing?
Note:
I don’t consider Bitcoin and other bogus crypto to be consumer products.
(Cyrpto currencies are reserved for another generation of suckers.)
Most vacation homes are rented out by the owners, and used a few weeks a year. Which means they are effectively investment/rental properties and the $750K limit doesn’t come into play.
According to the article, the NAR “initially” estimated a 10% drop. Maybe the 10% was based on eliminating the MID entirely. Of course, will the MSM ever recalculate based on a $750K ceiling? Oh hell no. However, props to the guy in Texas who re-estimated a “5-10% drop” for luxury only. For non-luxury, it might be 2-3%, make no difference at all. And there’s no way to tell if a 2-3% drop is due to the MID or to a fluctuating market. In other words, for the 95%, it’s a nothingburger.
DebtDonkey
Oakton, VA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/oakton-va/home-values/
Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Long Island Iced Tea soars after saying it will change its focus to blockchain
7.00+4.56 (+186.89%)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LTEA
People are stupid.
Exhibit A:
Shares of The Long Island Iced Tea Corporation soared as much as 432% pre-market Thursday morning after the company said it would change it’s name to Long Blockchain Corp.
The company will continue to sell its line of bottled drinks based on the eponymous cocktail, it said, but its parent company “is shifting its primary corporate focus towards the exploration of and investment in opportunities that leverage the benefits of blockchain technology,” according to a press release.
Shares were trading near $13 - or roughly 433% above Wednesday’s closing price - prior to Thursday’s opening bell.
This pivot to blockchain is the latest in a trend of companies rebranding, refocusing, or announcing new efforts related to blockchain and cryptocurrencies, sending their stock through the roof.
More flashbacks to 1999, when adding “.com” to a company name made its stock shoot up
Or adding “solutions” to the end of everything. Orwell would be proud.
We’ve seen this before — in the 1960s, with the suffix “tronics,” and in the late 1990s when companies branded themselves with the letters “e” or “i” or as “.com.” Even Forbes wrote about this:
https://www.forbes.com/1999/01/14/mu3.html#afa156f4aeae
But it doesn’t matter how many times we’ve seen things before. Maybe Sears should make a blockchain announcement and announce its own cryptocurrency. That grilled cheese food truck company too.
Great article. History repeats, indeed.
If not repeats, at least it rhymes.
Truth is stranger than fiction for sure. What a joke.
The “progressive” narrative must be enforced:
https://www.truthrevolt.org/news/leftist-students-rip-down-racist-kate-steinle-memorial-posters
Cant wait for the DACAs to get the boot from our schools. Maybe it will force them to lower tuition rates as well. I believe the tax bill forces schools to use their endowments or be taxed on them, be interesting to see how they get around that to fund their failed leftist nonsense, like free tuition for people illegally in the country.
That provision was stripped out at the last second. That’s why the House had to vote twice.
my local HS school went form a 9 to an 8 after daca dump
Salon dot com provides the following narrative:
https://www.salon.com/2017/12/21/trumps-soft-ethnic-cleansing-immigrants-are-human-garbage/
And the following is a list of Democrat Party election victories won on a platform of identity politics:
.
.
.
.
Uhm you must have been asleep in 2008 and 2012.
This is my opinion: The identity politics were not all that strong in 2008 and 2012, at least they weren’t the same. I know this because it was the new identity politics that REALLY turned me off the Dems sometime in early 2016. (I don’t have a clear date.)
LOL. All day yesterday I heard how this is a tax giveaway to evil rich people. But now all of a sudden evil rich people with $1M mortgages will pay more taxes. This is priceless.
Redmond, WA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/redmond-wa/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Wrong. 1987-built 2400sf 3BD/2.5BA just sold down the street for $1.1M. It was all original as well. Plenty of foreign money is still coming into the neighborhood.
Hello my good friend….
Seattle(Capitol Hill), WA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/capitol-hill-seattle-wa/home-values/
And don’t forget to select price from dropdown menu on first chart.
How does house prices going down “slow down” the industry? Are not more people able to buy a given house (or any good, for that matter) at a lower price point? Won’t this therefore increase transaction volume and actually “speed up” the industry? I would think that the 6-percenters would be ecstatic about this.
California is the most impoverished state in the country:
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-yir-lopez-year-housing-review-20171219-story.html
“94,785,000 Not in Labor Force; At 62.9%, Labor Force Participation Stuck Near 38-Year Low”
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/no-records-set-august-number-employed-americans-drops-participation-rate
Q3 GDP grew at 3.2%.
This seems like a YUUGE thing. And it is compared to the last 8 years. Obama’s socialist policies made up limp along at 1-2%. So 3% seems incredible. But it’s just getting back to normal.
Obama destroyed a decade of growth and we have a lot to make up. I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit 6 or 7% quarters in 2018.
Get prices falling far and fast enough and you may be right.
in month 102 of recovery=long in the tooth
Hey remember how Net Neutrality repeal and tax cuts were the most worstest things ever?
Yeah about that…
“Based on the passage of tax reform and the FCC’s action on broadband, Brian L. Roberts, Chairman and CEO of Comcast NBCUniversal, announced that the Company would award special $1,000 bonuses to more than one hundred thousand eligible frontline and non-executive employees. Roberts also announced that the Company expects to spend well in excess of $50 billion over the next five years investing in infrastructure to radically improve and extend our broadband plant and capacity, and our television, film and theme park offerings.”
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/12/comcasts-network-investments-soared-with-net-neutrality-rules-in-place/
But of course, according to that ars technica article, Comcast was already going to spend all this money. LOL!
So the article is all about debunking that part, but I see they didn’t make any attempt to debunk the thousand-dollar bonuses.
The point is the left’s insane reaction to NN and the tax cuts are…well…insane. Both events are already leading to positive actions. In other words, Democrats lied.
I note that those thousand dollars are bonuses and not RAISES; they’re a one-time thing to distract the poor from realizing how they are being screwed in general. It’s no different than a gilded-age robber baron tossing pennies out of his open limousine.
A few of the organizations also raised the minimum wage paid to their employees to $15.
#TBT — Nas — New York State Of Mind (1994):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKjj4hk0pV4
Interesting read: Why did the US go off the gold standard? (NPR article)
Again, what struck me was the description of the economic advisors. They had a philosophy which seem very plausible, but was not entirely accurate. Very smart, well-respected people with august bona fides.
And the age old siren song remains the same: if disruptions to the money supply can cause economic distress, surely then skilled manipulation of the money supply can bring prosperity. Unfortunately, the money supply is not the source of prosperity, but merely a reflection of it.
Executive Order Blocking the Property of Persons Involved in Serious Human Rights Abuse or Corruption
Issued on: December 21, 2017
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-blocking-property-persons-involved-serious-human-rights-abuse-corruption/
Holy fark! I’m only a few paragraphs in and I can’t contain myself. What does it mean? Sounds like it is tailor made for the globalist cronies of the Clinton Foundation, China, the Pakistani spy ring, Soros, you name it. Jeebus. Well, gotta continue on. Maybe this is what that Bank of NY seizure of Khazak related assets is all about. Wew, lad!
Ben, would you know how I would find the “annex” to that order, because apparently it names names.
Jeebus, I feel as if I just read some Holy Scripture or something like that.
Yeah it’s on the treasury departments release. Mostly government types, gun runners, etc.
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm0243
Here’s more details:
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/OFAC-Enforcement/Pages/20171221.aspx
Thanks, Ben. Nothing there rings a bell with me, but it looks like Gambia is in deep doo-doo. The Pakistani national is interesting, especially the organ trafficking aspect. More to come on that, I suspect. It might tie in with the Awans. And then there’s the Chinese fellow. Well, that’s one doozy of an executive order, I’d say. And more to come on this, I imagine.
But I repeat myself.
This EO is starting to blow up (in a good way) on the internet.
God bless DJT.
The Magnitsky Act came about because of the torture and murder of Sergei Magnitsky, a very upright Russian lawyer for Bill Browder’s (a US citizen) who was exposing corruption inside Russia.
Bill Browder invested in Russian companies during their transition from communism to capitalism. What he found is that many of the Russian oligarchs in companies he had an investment stake in were basically stealing companies hand over fist. He (Browder) became an anti-corruption advocate and exposed the corruption of the Russian state. This was very embarrassing for Russia and, initially, Vladimir Putin made a big show of punishing corruption. Then Magnitsky exposed the largest tax refund scam in Russian history which threatened to ensnare many people within the government. That is when Magnitsky died suspiciously. Apparently he was murdered so the problem would go away and the Russian government had a hand in this.
The Magnitsky act was a way for the US government to retaliate against Russian actors involved in the death of Sergei Magnitsky. Putin was furious about this and this is when he retaliated by restricting US adoptions of Russian orphans. This is where the connection between DTJ and Russia comes in. Then Eric Trump and Manafort discussed meeting with Veselnitskaya about “adoptions” this was essentially Putin trying to get restrictions lifted on Russian oligarchs and wealthy individuals connected to the state. Also, the Obama administration had slapped sanctions on Russians due to their involvement in Crimea and Ukraine:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_sanctioned_during_the_Ukrainian_crisis
Planet Money did a good job on the backstory of the Magnitsky Act:
https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=537306741
Well, I guess I’ll just drop these here. Merry Christmas, God bless us, everyone!
Year One, Trump Administration, 81 major achievements:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/year-one-list-81-major-trump-achievements-11-obama-legacy-items-repealed/article/2644159
Hell freezes over: Media start admitting that Trump’s first year isn’t a flop:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/21/hell-freezes-over-media-start-admitting-that-trumps-first-year-isnt-flop.html
The Trump Tax Plan Proves POTUS Is a Transformational Political Genius and Mastermind Without Peer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brKgfUU6Yao&t=151s
(The above is Lionel, aka Michael LeBron, legal gadfly, all around character and not originally a fan of Trump. 9 minute video, but the first few minutes is enough to get an idea.)
The second father of his country:
https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*Y156uXSSXZG5EFJo2z_GoQ.jpeg
(Apologies to Mr. Washington, but we’re undergoing a re-birth and the pangs are something fierce)
http://picpaste.com/djt.jpg
Trump
Trump
Bitcoin! Smart homeowners should cash out their home equity and BUY THE DIP!
(Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha)
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
https://www.coindesk.com/price/
my county
zillow says yoy 0
case-schiller says 3
local re association 1.3
wonder which the taxman will choose
oct/nov yoy
Did the SPLC stop paying Mighty to post here?
Whose spinnin da’ hits today?