January 6, 2018

The Bubble Has Formed

A weekend topic starting with Delaware Business Now. “Gary Hindes is continuing his battle with the boards of home lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Hindes is the managing partner of New York-based Delaware Bay Co. and has been active in Democratic Party circles in Delaware. Delaware Bay specializes in securities of distressed companies like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The two companies package mortgages for sale. to investors. Amid recent press reports that, because of the reduction of the corporate income tax rate which took effect on Jan, 1, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may require a one-time Treasury draw, Hindes says any such payments by Treasury should be characterized as ‘a return of stolen money.’”

“Hindes had previously filed suit in an effort to get a better deal for shareholders, reduce principal on debt and thereby boost the value of securities. On September 6, 2008, the federal government seized Fannie and Freddie and placed them into conservatorship. ‘The original takeover wasn’t the ‘bailout’ it purported to be; it was a stick-up,’ Hindes says.”

“‘It was a mafia-type ‘loan’ from the beginning,’ Hindes says. ‘What responsible board of directors – or in this case, a ‘conservator’, no less – would borrow $187 billion and agree that no matter how much money they repay the lender, not a dime can be applied towards principal? I mean, who does that? And here’s a reality check for you: who borrows that kind of money and pays it all back in just four years? Answer: someone who never needed it in the first place. It was ‘cookie jar accounting’.”

“Under the terms of the FHFA/Treasury deal, both companies were to have seen their capitaldrained downto zero by year-end 2017. However, on December 21, Treasury agreed to allow each company to maintain $3 billion in capital. Everything above that will be swept to the government – in perpetuity, Hindes says. ‘The idea all along was to saddle them with a concrete life preserver so that they could not ‘escape, as it were’, Hindes said, quoting from an August 18, 2012 White House email to a Treasury official. ‘And so far, it’s worked.’”

From the Commercial Observer. “Lenders under the umbrella of the Fannie Mae Multifamily Delegated Underwriting and Servicing (DUS) program have been setting records over the last couple of years, stepping to the forefront of the lending arena and delivering substantial amounts of debt across all multifamily property types. Freddie Mac funded 198,000 apartment homes in the third quarter and took on $43 billion in mortgage funding in November 2017 alone, according to a Freddie Mac monthly volume survey.”

“In the current multifamily market environment, that volume and competition could create a problem, and a slowdown may be on the way. Analysts warn of overly competitive markets, stagnant rents in gateway cities, compressed cap rates, plateaued absorption rates and an oversupply of certain assets (such as luxury condominiums) culminating and pumping the brakes on the sector in 2018. Add to the mix the demand to meet millennial taste and you have quite the conundrum cocktail.”

“The amount of outstanding debt guaranteed by Fannie Mae has increased each year since 2013 to $246 billion through the second quarter of 2017—or roughly 20 percent of the market share of outstanding multifamily debt, according to a second quarter debt market report from the agency. Freddie Mac Multifamily—which doesn’t rely on DUS financing and focuses more on home ownership and affordable housing—held 16 percent of the market share to complete a 36 percent piece of the total multifamily debt pie.”

“The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) twice adjusted the lending caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2016, leading Fannie Mae to set a record for deal volume at $55.3 billion—up from $42.3 billion in 2015—while supporting 724,000 units of multifamily housing—the highest volume in the history of its DUS program. Fannie swiftly surpassed its 2016 record in November 2017, registering $57.7 billion in new business.”

“‘At the beginning of the cycle, lenders like Greystone and Arbor Realty Trust and others recognized the need for multifamily bridge product in order to prepare a borrower or property for agency financing,’ said Joseph Cafiero, the president of New York-based firm CREMAC Asset Management. ‘You can see that [Net Operating Income] growth is in negative territory in some cases and growth in NOI is diminishing in others—through the tapping out on dollars per square foot or because expenses are exceeding the growth of NOI.’”

“‘The bubble has formed, it’s just a question of when it pops,’ Cafiero said. ‘The multifamily sector has long been recognized as the most stable or least volatile sector to invest in. The transaction volume in the sector, availability of cheap debt and extremely low cap rates fueled the bubble. Stagnant NOI growth, especially in the rent-regulated area will eventually lead to significant losses for those properties that experience compression in net cash flow. This will also lead to landlords reducing services they provide to multifamily properties, and then it will be more difficult to keep up properties like they should, which will erode the value of the property.’”

“‘What’s most interesting is the impact of this NOI compression,’ Cafiero said. ‘The point is it’s beginning to look as if the return no longer makes sense for an investor. If you buy multifamily today at a 3 percent cap rate, you’re getting 3 percent return. At some point, you have to charge less management fees and cut costs to maintain a return.’”

“With an oversaturated market in terms of assets and players, banks have been steadily tightening their standards for commercial real estate loans backed by multifamily properties, according to data from the Federal Reserve’s October 2017 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices.”

From the Real Deal. “Multifamily projects have been on the rise across Westchester and Fairfield counties for a while, so much so that sometimes it seems like it’s all anyone can talk about when it comes to suburban real estate. But experts say there’s been a slowdown in construction loans from traditional lenders for these developments in both counties, citing concerns about too much multifamily stock in some markets despite continued strong demand and high occupancy levels.”

“‘The market slowdown started maybe at the beginning of 2016, where lenders were more concerned with saturation in markets that have seen a substantial amount of multifamily growth,’ said Mark Fisher, senior vice president at CBRE. ‘Loan values and loan-to-cost [ratios] have dropped also. Banks that were willing to make 75 percent [recourse] loans are down to 60 percent.’”

“Another concern lenders have is that rents have leveled off, and landlords are increasingly having to sweeten lease terms with incentives. ‘In certain markets, we see one, two or three months’ rent [offered] to new tenants,’ said Marjan Murray, executive vice president for commercial real estate lending at People’s United.”

The Star Telegram in Texas. “A decade after the housing market crashed, foreclosures in Dallas-Fort Worth have slowed to a trickle. Fewer than 1,000 homes are taken each month from owners who haven’t kept up with mortgage payments in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area. But could they be on the verge of going back up? ‘We’re seeing a little bit of a hint, with increasing foreclosure activity,’ said Daren Blomquist, a senior vice president at Attom Data Solutions, a company that closely tracks foreclosures nationwide.”

“Blomquist is concerned about some small indicators he is seeing in North Texas since this past summer. Foreclosures remain historically low, but Attom Data’s monthly data figures show the number of foreclosures has been higher than the same month a year earlier in five of the past six months. It could be a sign that lenders are going back to their old ways and approving risky loans, he said.”

“‘In five of the last six months, we’ve seen a year-over-year increase (in auctions and bank repossessions) and that kind of pattern does indicate to me that there is some loosening of the lending standard,’ he said. ‘In the peak of the Great Recession, in 2009 and 2010 there was some regulation tightening, but it is gradually starting to loosen and we’re starting to see the result of that.’”

“Home values have skyrocketed 33 percent in the Dallas-Fort Worth area just since 2014, and the median home value in Tarrant County is now $249,000. That’s compared to $188,300 three years ago and $150,900 in 2007 during the housing bust.”

“With values steadily rising, banks may be content to hang on to the vacant properties and simply pay the property taxes until they find a buyer willing to pay top price, said J.R. Martinez, president of the Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors. As an example, Martinez said one of his relatives lives in Haltom City across the street from a home that was acquired by a bank through a reverse mortgage. It has remained vacant for two years.”

“‘The lady died, and the house hasn’t been occupied for two years now,’ he said. ‘The bank foreclosed on it, but still hasn’t put it on the market. Banks don’t just give the houses away. Even at auctions, just because a house is available at auction and someone makes a bid and gets it, that doesn’t mean the bank will accept it.’”




RSS feed

142 Comments »

Comment by 2banana
2018-01-06 09:15:50

It is an old scheme that the world has seen many times before.

And we all know how it ends.

++++++

The Problem of Surplus Wealth
Townhall.com | January 6, 2018 | Steve Soukup

Roughly speaking, the federal deficit doubled from $10 trillion to $20 trillion during the eight years of Barack Obama’s presidency. Little was said about this phenomenal growth at the time, and even less was done about it. Of course, now that the Republicans are in charge and have had the audacity to cut taxes, the horror of the deficit is once again a topic of conversation among the chattering classes.

The subject of “surplus money” is well known in the banking and investment world, where it is routinely blamed for everything from creating bubbles to the emergence of casino-type finance capital. In her classic tome, The Origins of Totalitarianism, Hanna Arendt blamed the “overproduction of capital and emergence of superfluous money” for the advent of 19th century imperialism. Specifically, she wrote:

“For the first time, investment of power did not pave the way for investment of money, but export of power followed meekly in the train of exported money, since uncontrollable investments in distant countries threatened to transform large strata of society into gamblers, to change the whole capitalist economy from a system of production into a system of financial speculation.”

You see, Congress doesn’t borrow all that money year after year because it is needed to make up for shortfalls caused by unanticipated events such wars, economic crashes, or natural disasters. In truth, our honorable legislators borrow all of that money simply because they can, and because it makes them look both generous and benevolent, which, in turn, helps to ensure their reelection.

Hannah Arendt went on note that one of the consequences of surplus money in 19th century Europe in addition to the need to search for investments abroad was “an unparalleled increase in swindles, financial scandals, and gambling in the stock market.”

And so it is today with the flood of trillions of dollars of “surplus” funds, which have turned the federal government into a swamp of corruption and waste, and have created multi-millionaires of common politicians. In what world should a man and his wife – lifelong “public servants” – now be worth well over $100 million, simply because he was president and she a senator and secretary of state? In what world should a former high-school wrestling coach-turned politician even be able to pay nearly $2 million in hush money? In what world should the House Minority Leader be able to condemn public policy with which she disagrees for enabling permanent “oligarchy,” even as she herself is one of the most powerful women in the world and is worth north of $120 million?

Comment by tj
2018-01-06 10:10:54

In what world should a man and his wife – lifelong “public servants” – now be worth well over $100 million, simply because he was president and she a senator and secretary of state?

if screech would have won and been president, it wouldn’t have been long before we had a horse in the senate.

Comment by tresho
2018-01-06 12:36:48

“horse in the Senate”?? We have quite a few hind ends of horses there already.

 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-06 10:15:09

I appreciate 2banana’s posts.

“Every. Single. One.”

Comment by Obama Goons
2018-01-06 10:25:19

2banana is a true American Patriot.

Comment by nolookpass13
2018-01-06 11:55:50

Dos Nanners has got it going on.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Overbanked
2018-01-06 14:37:53

God Bless Donald J. Trump. God Bless 2Banana.

 
 
Comment by rms
2018-01-06 10:30:32

“Roughly speaking, the federal deficit doubled from $10 trillion to $20 trillion during the eight years of Barack Obama’s presidency.”

And our highways and roads still have potholes everywhere.

 
Comment by Anonymous
2018-01-06 11:30:48

Thank you so much for this. Excellent post.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-06 14:04:45

“…surplus wealth…surplus money…”

Not surprisingly, this “surplus money” never finds its way to regular folks, unless it’s in the form of onerous debt. Notice how people like the Clintons became fantastically wealthy during these times.

“It’s a big club, and you ain’t in it.”

“The game is rigged.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5dBZDSSky0

Comment by redmondjp
2018-01-07 23:22:16

No, you’re wrong about that. That surplus money of course trickles down, when a strawberry picker in CA buys a $750K house. Sure, it’s debt, but it’s from the same pot of money.

And I was just in the junkyard yesterday marveling at some of the amazingly nice cars that should not have been there. Exhibit A: a 1997 Civic EX coupe - shiny paint, clear headlights, clean interior, no rust (in PNW) and not a dent or scratch on it. Even if it needed a motor or transmission, you can get a low-mileage Japanese one for a very reasonable price. This car should still be on the road right now.

But, there it sits waiting to be turned into LG front-load washing machines. Why?

Because there is too much free money in the system, so even dirt-poor people can get car loans for cars that they can’t afford.

So I have to disagree with your statement.

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-01-06 09:19:28

Alameda, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/alameda-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by 2banana
2018-01-06 09:19:55

2banana’s Rule
Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy

It is very ironic - rich liberals/progressives don’t want to live under the same laws and taxes they want for everyone else

Guess what is going to happen to housing prices kiddies…

+++++++++

Rich People Are Fleeing Connecticut
ZeroHedge - 01/05/2018

Lawmakers like Connecticut’s Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy should pay attention to the latest batch of IRS data, which show tax payers – particularly wealthy ones – are leaving Connecticut for states like Florida, where there is no income tax, and New York City, where taxes are high but at least you can order Chinese food at 4 am.

Indeed, as the Hartford Courant points out in an editorial, the latest data reveal that Connecticut is in the middle of a taxpayer exodus.

Those who moved out of Connecticut from 2015 to 2016 took with them more than $6 billion in adjusted gross income, or AGI.

And that was before this year’s budget battle, which nearly precipitated dramatic cuts to municipal services. The taxes and cutbacks that lawmakers agreed to in order to pass a compromise budget bill will likely anger more monied nutmeggers.

As the paper’s editorial board warned: “Legislators, this is strong evidence that taxing residents at high rates is becoming counterproductive.”

That means more than $2 billion in income moved from Connecticut to Florida from 2015 to 2016, more than twice as much money as moved to New York.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-06 09:25:33

‘The amount of outstanding debt guaranteed by Fannie Mae has increased each year since 2013 to $246 billion through the second quarter of 2017—or roughly 20 percent of the market share of outstanding multifamily debt, according to a second quarter debt market report from the agency. Freddie Mac Multifamily…held 16 percent of the market share to complete a 36 percent piece of the total multifamily debt pie.’

‘The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) twice adjusted the lending caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2016, leading Fannie Mae to set a record for deal volume at $55.3 billion—up from $42.3 billion in 2015—while supporting 724,000 units of multifamily housing—the highest volume in the history of its DUS program. Fannie swiftly surpassed its 2016 record in November 2017, registering $57.7 billion in new business.’

And we know this is almost all luxury. Boy, we really need to subsidize that at the peak of the bubble. DC couldn’t have screwed this up more if they tried.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-06 09:28:57

I don’t begin to understand how the “affordable housing enterprises” became deeply involved in providing loans for luxury housing construction. The situation certainly does stink to high Heaven, though.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-06 16:46:03

Nothing is ever done in the best interests of the public, but rather always in the interests of the “special interests.” Follow the money…

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2018-01-06 09:33:10

Oh - they tried alright.

“DC couldn’t have screwed this up more if they tried.”

Top All-Time Donors
10 National Assn of Realtors $86,218,960

https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-06 10:10:58

When contemplating the inanity of our federal housing policy, it is important to keep in mind the perpetual money flows from REIC constituents to politicians.

Comment by Neuromance
2018-01-06 21:06:34

It certainly smells like a kickback. Money flows out of DC to the REIC, and they funnel a portion back to the politicians.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by redmondjp
2018-01-07 23:25:18

And the same holds true at local and state levels. The realtors’ lobby is one of the biggest contributors to politicians in my state.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-06 09:25:47

“The transaction volume in the sector, availability of cheap debt and extremely low cap rates fueled the bubble. Stagnant NOI growth, especially in the rent-regulated area will eventually lead to significant losses for those properties that experience compression in net cash flow. This will also lead to landlords reducing services they provide to multifamily properties, and then it will be more difficult to keep up properties like they should, which will erode the value of the property.”

Sounds like the evil twins are well on the way to turning the US multifamily sector into a slumlordship.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-06 10:06:41

But why? If they aren’t allowed to keep the money anyway, why expand so aggressively?

‘The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) twice adjusted the lending caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2016, leading Fannie Mae to set a record for deal volume at $55.3 billion—up from $42.3 billion in 2015—while supporting 724,000 units of multifamily housing—the highest volume in the history of its DUS program. Fannie swiftly surpassed its 2016 record in November 2017, registering $57.7 billion in new business.’

“‘At the beginning of the cycle, lenders like Greystone and Arbor Realty Trust and others recognized the need for multifamily bridge product in order to prepare a borrower or property for agency financing,’ said Joseph Cafiero, the president of New York-based firm CREMAC Asset Management. ‘You can see that [Net Operating Income] growth is in negative territory in some cases.’”

On this:

‘FHFA twice adjusted the lending caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2016′

Twice in one year, even as other lenders saw it was too crowded.

‘the need for multifamily bridge product in order to prepare a borrower or property for agency financing’

What this means is the GSE’s and especially Fannie have a period of a year or two before a value add deal can refi with them. Then the cash-out flows like a river. Investors have been getting all their money back and more in 12 to 24 months. Of course the properties are leveraged to the hilt on insane cap rates. There’s now no skin in the game. But hey, they had an election to win. Plus all these rich people involved were super happy. Just a great big gravy train all around.

Where was Elisabeth Warren?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-06 10:16:48

“Then the cash-out flows like a river. Investors have been getting all their money back and more in 12 to 24 months.”

Sounds like a great deal for those on the receiving end. Who pays for the largesse, and how?

 
Comment by Lurker
2018-01-06 13:00:10

“What this means is…”

Excellent explanation, thank you. This stuff is so deliberately convoluted that even the well-informed reader might have trouble reading between the lines - I certainly do.

Ben, have you ever thought of writing a book about the multifamily/Fannie-Freddie/bailout/Mel Watt mess? You have a gift for cutting through the complexity to the corrupt heart of the matter and translating it for a wider audience. With brevity too!

Comment by CorporateShill
2018-01-06 22:16:32

Imagine investors buying an 800k apartment and jacking rents up. Commercial loans are done against the income. Say the valuation after rent increases and lowering costs is 1.2 million. They refi and pull out 400k of equity. Over the last several years a lot of this has been transpiring.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2018-01-06 09:26:31

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were PRIVATE corporations ILLEGALLY bailed out by obama.

A better deal? They should have gone BANKRUPT and your shares should have been WORTHLESS.

++++

Hindes is the managing partner of New York-based Delaware Bay Co. and has been active in Democratic Party circles in Delaware.

“Hindes had previously filed suit in an effort to get a better deal for shareholders…

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-06 09:33:08

‘ILLEGALLY bailed out by obama’

Nope.

Monday, February 07, 2005
Fannie/Freddie Regulator Preps For Bankruptcy

‘The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight is pushing legislation through congress that prepares for the insolvency of the mortgage giants. Patrick Lawler, OFHEO chief economist told a forum “Receivership is a valuable thing”.

‘None of this is reported on the official website of the regulator. Also mentioned in this story was this tidbit;”..a coalition of 37 federal, state, and local groups urged the federal government and Congress to cut ties with Fannie and Freddie Thursday. Warning that Americans are threatened by a potential taxpayer bailout of the two companies”.

http://thehousingbubble.blogspot.com/2005/02/fanniefreddie-regulator-preps-for.html

Both parties take turns raking billions off of the GSE’s and have for decades. What Obama did was step it up and let Mel Watt run wild.

‘Under the terms of the FHFA/Treasury deal, both companies were to have seen their capitaldrained downto zero by year-end 2017. However, on December 21, Treasury agreed to allow each company to maintain $3 billion in capital. Everything above that will be swept to the government – in perpetuity, Hindes says. ‘The idea all along was to saddle them with a concrete life preserver so that they could not ‘escape, as it were’, Hindes said, quoting from an August 18, 2012 White House email to a Treasury official.’

Quite a scandal, no?

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-06 09:27:46

I got this in an email from Edward Pinto about a conference call next Monday:

‘With talk about GSE reform heating up in Washington, this briefing will lay out a guiding principle for the government’s involvement in the housing market–the only reason for government to back the housing market Is to help low- or moderate income families buy homes. An evaluation the GSE’s business shows that less than 10% of their business meets this simple test.’

But we’ve got to have government backing for cash out refi’s in California!

Comment by 2banana
2018-01-06 09:37:39

If government really wanted to help low and moderate income people afford a house:

Guarantee NOT ONE mortgage
Not ONE bank bailout
Make banks eat their bad loans
Enforce GAAP
Enforce fraud laws
Audit banks
Raise interest rate

And PRESTO - affordable housing EVERYWHERE.

Comment by Anonymous
2018-01-06 11:43:10

You’re on a roll today! :D

 
 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-01-06 14:00:36

“…for government to back the housing market Is to help low- or moderate income families…”

How high of an IQ does one need to understand that supporting the “market” in its entirety does nothing to help the poor enter the market?

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-06 18:11:40

The US government is essentially an extortion racket which steals from the people and gives the loot to political insiders. It’s never been about “helping” anybody with the exception of the aforementioned group.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2018-01-06 09:29:09

One of the many end results of obama’s cheap and easy ZIRP money.

Make the banks EAT their bad loans, enforce GAAP rules and put bankers in jail for fraud and this sh*t would end overnight.

+++++

‘The bank foreclosed on it, but still hasn’t put it on the market. Banks don’t just give the houses away. Even at auctions, just because a house is available at auction and someone makes a bid and gets it, that doesn’t mean the bank will accept it.’”

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-06 09:35:54

It used to be illegal for banks to do this. Why wasn’t the regulation put back in place? So banks could run massive flipping operations?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-06 10:25:24

With housing going up at historically high rates of appreciation, it certainly makes sense for banks to hold foreclosed homes off the market and let the Housinng Bubble 2.0 gains rack up before selling them.

Comment by Anonymous
2018-01-06 11:45:33

Looks like maybe they waited a little too long!?

Which begs the question, if housing begins to decline significantly, what then will Banks do with all those empty houses?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by 2banana
2018-01-06 12:06:33

Considering the US government, ie taxpayers, guarantees nearly every mortgage….

What do you think will happen?

Hint. Conflict of interest

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2018-01-06 15:25:45

Which begs the question, if housing begins to decline significantly, what then will Banks do with all those empty houses?

Wait for bubble 3.0. We’re all conditioned to buy the dip now.

 
Comment by oxide
2018-01-06 15:32:30

They will let the houses fall apart, and then scream that they need government cheesechecks to build new housing. Of course all the new housing will be unaffordable luxury, 95% of it will have NO yard worth speaking of. It’s like mandatory cash for clunkers and then building only Beemers. Not only are middle class jobs disappearing, but middle class “stuff” is disappearing too.

 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-01-06 16:55:04

I’ll add cheesechecks to my dictionary
No inventory on the DoD side of the river

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-06 17:07:40

Housing my good friend.

Oakton, VA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Housing Correction Expands

https://www.movoto.com/oakton-va/market-trends/

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-06 18:36:21

I’ll add cheesechecks to my dictionary

I think Jim Gaffigan might have a copyright on the term “cheese checks” (see his “Beyond the Pale” performance)

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2018-01-09 20:24:41

I noticed that post because we used to say “cheese checks” in the Army in the 80s to refer to government checks in general.

 
 
 
Comment by SW
2018-01-06 13:08:53

Has anyone seen recent information that’s reliable and details the amount of shadow housing inventory?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-06 13:15:44

Census bureau. It’s all there.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-06 09:38:46

Realtors are liars.

Comment by 2banana
2018-01-06 09:40:43

So are car salesmen.

As long as you know what you are dealing with - deal with it.

Like with banker - an enemy to be battled.

Even have fun toying with.

Comment by Drater
2018-01-06 09:55:57

At least a car salesman can only swindle you for a few hundred dollars max. Realtors get you for thousands and not to mention their “kickback cronies” (pest control, title, escrow, appraisers, home inspectors, contractors) that also swindle you. I’ve sold two houses in my lifetime and both experiences were horrible in terms of feeling like you’re being ripped off. Personally, never dealing again with realtors and contractors is a major drawing point to renting.

Comment by Drater
2018-01-06 09:57:35

Pest control = termite fumigation and repairs

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Anonymous
2018-01-06 11:47:54

Like the $500 “documentation fee” tacked on to the purchase price of my last vehicle. :-X

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by tresho
2018-01-06 12:42:59

Like the $500 “documentation fee” tacked on to the purchase price of my last vehicle.
That happened on my next to last purchase, a 2001 F150. That was in 2002. It was “only” $100 & I paid it. A couple years later there was a class action lawsuit concerning this policy - or the state AG got involved - and I got a coupon in the mail for $150 worth of parts &/or service, which I was able to use for what I considered at least $100 worth of parts within a few days. So I came out even. But I won’t ever do business with that dealership again.

 
Comment by dwkunkel
2018-01-06 15:07:34

When we have purchased cars from dealers, we just tell them the total that we’re willing to pay and they can just eat all the extra fees. If they don’t agree, we walk!

It usually works.

 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-06 12:42:42

Why did you use a Realtor to sell your houses?

I sold one in 2005 without a Realtor and although there was some leg work and BS it went pretty smooth. (disclaimer I did have an attorney that helped me with a few things) but it allowed me to sell at a lower price and still put more money in my pocket.

In 2012 I did use a Realtor to buy the place I’m in, of course I found the place and told her what my number was. After that, allowing her to do all the other sh#t while the seller paid didn’t bother me at all.

For me, never dealing again with HOAs and landlords is a major drawing point to owning.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by tresho
2018-01-06 12:46:18

never dealing again with HOAs and landlords is a major drawing point to owning.
Many “owners” still have to deal with HOAs. Local governments try to act like “landlords” with their land use regulations, constantly getting more onerous, not to mention real estate taxes / rents paid to the gubmint. Then there is the fun of dealing with repairs you cannot do for yourself, contractors, etc.

 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-06 18:22:24

“Many “owners” still have to deal with HOAs.”

Not this one, NO HOA was at the very top of my list when looking for a house.

“Then there is the fun of dealing with repairs you cannot do for yourself, contractors, etc.”

Actually another thing I would much rather deal with myself than have to call a bumbling landlord (which both of mine were 2006 - 2012) and ask them to get something taken care of. Even if I can’t do it myself I can get it done much more efficiently than they could or would without worrying about spending an extra $75 like they were.

Even putting all of that aside, the difference in my mortgage payment and what I was paying those clowns in after tax $ for rent since June 2012 through now would put a new roof on my place, a new AC unit (compressor and air handler) new water heater and all new appliances all at the same time.

I realize these numbers wouldn’t work in Seattle, nor would they work in San Francisco or many places including my hometown but they do work where I live.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-06 13:10:36

….. And every closing a crime scene.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2018-01-06 09:49:49

2banana’s Rule
Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy

Lord help you if own a home or business in one.

++++++

88 Percent Of Chicago Murderers Got Away With It In 2017
Daily Caller News | 01/04/2018 | Anders Hagstrom

Chicago Police have only charged a suspect in 12 percent of homicide cases in 2017, meaning city residents had an 88 percent chance of getting away with murder last year.

Chicago suffered 604 fatal shootings in 2017, 570 that have yet to be solved…

Joining the homicide clearance rate on the bad side of 2017 was the carjacking rate, that was the highest in a decade. The Chicago Police Department reported 967 carjackings in 2017 through Dec. 27, a sharp 30 percent increase over 2016’s 682 total.

The past three years have shown a stark upward trend in car thefts

Chicago police also spent $200 million on overtime payments in 2017, a 40 percent increase over 2016, that was already a record high.

Comment by Anonymous
2018-01-06 11:53:29

What a hellhole. Though I have to say, I enjoyed the three days I spent visiting Chicago a few years ago. But I would definitely never live there.

$200 million on overtime in one year!? Of course Chicago can afford that, no problem. /sarc

 
Comment by GreenEggsAndSpam
2018-01-06 15:18:24

Gotta imagine some of the cops themselves are in on it - bringing in guns or at least looking the other way, because without out of control mud skinned thugs they dont get all that overtime and juicy pensions, do they? Its just dindus killing dindus for the most part, so they can just show up hours after the melee, draw a chalkline around the body, take a few pics and cart the bodies off to the incinerator. Win-win all around for them.

And all the while the (((psychopathic perverts))) become more entrenched in power, diluting the culture, the rule of law, the economy, arts and entertainment while normalizing their inbred mental illness and perversions. Most don’t want to do the research, afraid of what they might find.

Comment by GreenEggsAndSpam
2018-01-06 15:29:22

Read the comments from people trapped under blue state tyranny. Taxed and fee’d to death while the rule of law gets ignored or flipped on its head, mobbed by homeless and illegal (slave) labor or welfare vacuums. Keep buying guns America, the time to use them is coming

https://www.yahoo.com/news/federal-tax-overhaul-could-lead-changes-states-135735232.html

Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-07 08:48:21

Make taxes charitable contributions. Isn’t charity supposed to be voluntary? I’m sure the IRS will be quick to reject those deductions.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-07 19:59:13

You can choose to donate the money…if you do, you get a credit against your taxes.

You can always be “patriotic” and choose to pay more in taxes.

I suspect there will be a quick move to disallow donations to government general funds.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-06 10:19:38

‘On September 6, 2008, the federal government seized Fannie and Freddie and placed them into conservatorship. ‘The original takeover wasn’t the ‘bailout’ it purported to be; it was a stick-up,’ Hindes says.’

‘It was a mafia-type ‘loan’ from the beginning,’ Hindes says. ‘What responsible board of directors – or in this case, a ‘conservator’, no less – would borrow $187 billion and agree that no matter how much money they repay the lender, not a dime can be applied towards principal? I mean, who does that? And here’s a reality check for you: who borrows that kind of money and pays it all back in just four years? Answer: someone who never needed it in the first place. It was ‘cookie jar accounting’.

This long sordid tale is one of many sides of the pancake. This guy has some points but no one is telling the whole truth. Why couldn’t either of the GSE’s produce financials when shack prices hadn’t even gone down? Why was there a criminal investigation of Fannie executives opened at DOJ in the fall of 2004, which quickly went away?

Why did the congressional committee chair (Senator from Alabama, BTW) investigating them flat rule out ending the GSEs government ties in the spring of 2005? I told you I’d never forget that one Shelby.

Senator’s Ties to Real Estate Draw Criticism - The New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/09/washington/09shelby.html
May 9, 2008 - Senator Richard C. Shelby, who has links to the mortgage industry, is helping to decide the fate of a housing bill. … But Mr. Shelby has for years blocked legislation that would have restrained Freddie Mac and its sibling, Fannie Mae, on the grounds that the bills did not go far enough. In doing so, the …

This is horse hockey NYT. Shelby was in the bag for these crooks.

Comment by Overbanked
2018-01-06 14:43:23

“On September 6, 2008, the federal government seized Fannie and Freddie and placed them into conservatorship.”

“Mr. Shelby has for years blocked legislation that would have restrained Freddie Mac and its sibling, Fannie Mae, on the grounds that the bills did not go far enough.”

This is why you never vote for Democrats, NEVER.

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-06 15:23:10

I once sat next to a former GSE executive at a dinner.

He commented about how every once in a while, a young, idealistic politician would come into office on promises of reforming the GSEs.

The GSEs would work to then open a lending office in that particular politician’s district, and invite him to photo ops.

Next thing you know, after numerous pictures with the politician next to locals who were beaming after being lent money to buy a home, the opposition and talk of reform magically melted away.

I’m not saying that both sides are just as bad and so you might as well vote Democrat.

I am saying that I’m not optimistic about real GSE reform…regardless of who has political power.

Comment by redmondjp
2018-01-07 23:28:35

If only more people of all political persuasions understood this - you can siphon away a bit of the swamp, but it fills back up far faster than you can drain it away.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Larry Littlefield
2018-01-07 07:38:42

The big crime of the whole thing was not making Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bondholders take a haircut.

They ended up earning interest in excess of U.S. Treasury bonds for what turned out to be the equivalent of U.S. Treasury bonds. In exchange for what? Successful extortion by the rich in a financial crisis or their own making?

At the very least, not only should shareholders and deferred compensation of executives been wiped out, but any return in excess of U.S. Treasury bonds should have been wiped out as well.

Comment by rms
2018-01-07 14:31:37

Among others I imagine that many public retirement systems were invested heavily in the GSEs, so pension haircuts were not ideal given the wide swath of retirements underway.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-06 10:29:37

‘‘What’s most interesting is the impact of this NOI compression,’ Cafiero said. ‘The point is it’s beginning to look as if the return no longer makes sense for an investor. If you buy multifamily today at a 3 percent cap rate, you’re getting 3 percent return…Another concern lenders have is that rents have leveled off, and landlords are increasingly having to sweeten lease terms with incentives. ‘In certain markets, we see one, two or three months’ rent [offered] to new tenants’

That 3% just went poof and into cash flow negative.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-06 10:35:53

‘The point is it’s beginning to look as if the return no longer makes sense for an investor.’

And here’s the really insane thing: rents have never been higher nor taken up as high a percentage of incomes. In that environment, they can’t make money? This is why it’s a bubble folks.

Comment by Anonymous
2018-01-06 11:59:27

Yep, gonna be ugly for some folks when things turn.

Come to think of it, it’ll probably ultimately be ugly for us taxpayers. Since the powers-that-be all seem to socialize their losses.

 
Comment by tresho
2018-01-06 12:48:32

In that environment, they can’t make money?
For some of the environment’s denizens, no amount of “money” will ever be enough to satisfy their infinite greed and dissimulation.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-06 21:44:18

“And here’s the really insane thing: rents have never been higher nor taken up as high a percentage of incomes. In that environment, they can’t make money? This is why it’s a bubble folks.”

I had a meeting with an advertising executive originally from southern California. She sold her condo in Del Mar for a pretty penny and contracted with an Idaho company (Sync Vans) to do a full sprinter van conversion. She showed me her new “home” and I was definitely digging it. She is well off enough to afford the high rent and a hefty mortgage, but she chooses not to. I’m not going to lie, I was very envious of her setup.

Comment by rms
2018-01-07 07:39:40

“I’m not going to lie, I was very envious of her setup.”

Are we talking cougar material or eight rings, boxed wine and kittens?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2018-01-06 10:41:11

That is amazing amount of risk for a 3% return .

Hell, treasuries are are 2.5%.

Or pick a boring utility for 3%.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-06 10:48:20

Cap rate doesn’t include cost of financing, 3% = mania.

 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-06 10:32:58
Comment by 2banana
2018-01-06 10:45:34

Old minorities and women hardest hit…

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-06 18:40:59

I wonder what percentage of the Centennial State’s poors are here iilegally?

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
Comment by Anonymous
2018-01-06 12:03:19

And over 5500 of them in swanky West LA…

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-07 08:45:09

In the 1980’s, when I still lived in San Diego, my late mother visited. She was living in Mexico City at the time and had last lived in SoCal in the late 1960’s. She was taken aback seeing all the homeless, pushing stolen shopping carts.

She asked me who those people were. “The homeless” I replied. It didn’t click with her, as she was unfamiliar with the term. I had to explain to her that they lived on the streets, maybe seeking shelter at the Y when it got cold in the winter.

She was completely blown away and couldn’t believe this was happening in SoCal. In her 1960’s memories SoCal was the land of milk and honey.

 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-06 10:51:29

I’m trying to grasp the difference between the GSEs and an organized criminal operation. Is the difference that the government sponsors the GSEs, or is there something deeper than this that explains the difference?

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-01-06 11:25:06

Cape Coral, FL 33914 Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY As Coastal Properties Flood Market

https://www.zillow.com/cape-coral-fl-33914/home-values/

https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-06 11:29:17

Build the f*ing wall:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/05/government-shutdown-democrats-immigration-trump-durbin-327042

Other recent articles report that 25% of the “dreamers” are functionally illiterate, but your betters say you’re not allowed to know that :(

Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-06 12:00:03

Mexico is on the verge of electing a communist for President (Andrés Manuel López Obrador). If this happens Mexico will end up doing a Venezuela.

The Wall need to be built ASAP.

Comment by MacBeth
2018-01-06 12:38:40

Wikipedia:

Venezuela was the most murderous place on Earth in 2015. In Venezuela, a person is murdered every 21 minutes. Violent crimes have been so prevalent in Venezuela that the government no longer produces the crime data.

In 2013, the homicide rate was approximately 79 per 100,000, one of the world’s highest, having quadrupled in the past 15 years with over 200,000 people murdered. By 2015, it had risen to 90 per 100,000.

 
 
Comment by Overbanked
2018-01-06 15:02:35

We don’t need a wall. Border crossings are lowest on record.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/border-issues/2017/12/06/trump-effect-fades-2017-illegal-immigration-u-s-mexico-border-historic-low/925331001/

What we need is increased consistent deportations from the interior. That costs money.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-06 18:25:51

They are low, but what about when Mexico does a Venezuela and the Mexodus resumes?

Comment by Overbanked
2018-01-06 19:29:37

Quality of Life has ALWAYS been WAY higher in USA than in Mexico. If you have to be struggle every damn day to put food on the table, might as well do it where your crap goes far away in pipes.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by redmondjp
2018-01-07 23:32:15

And don’t forget to flush twice; it’s farther from the kitchen.

That was written on the back of one of the stall doors at my scout summer camp.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-06 11:56:37

It’s no coincidence that Lyon Real Estate is located in Sacramento.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-06 13:39:37

Sacramento = Excremento.

A state capital that closely rivals Denver for its level of homelessness, junkies, methheads, filthy sidewalks, overpriced housing, etc.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-06 14:13:37

Ah, but they don’t have a 3 time Souperbowl winning team … OK, so they also don’t have a team that has lost the most Souperbowls (5).

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-06 14:16:42

Speaking of California, I’m surprised that the progs haven’t demanded that cities with a religion based name (Sacramento, Los Angeles, all the “San” cities) be renamed.

Comment by Anonymous
2018-01-07 08:02:50

They’re too busy #resisting Trump. If there’s another Dem prez, then they’ll have time for it.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Justme
2018-01-06 12:17:26

Here is a link to FHA that states the (changing) terms of the conservatorship of the GSM = FNM and FRE,

https://www.fhfa.gov/Conservatorship/Pages/Senior-Preferred-Stock-Purchase-Agreements.aspx

The general idea is that the US taxpayers capitalized and took over all the risk of these failed corporations, and therefore should get all the profits as dividends. The fact that GSE since 21.Dec get to keep 3B of their profits as “capital”is the scandal. Gary Hindes is just a crony-capitalist speculator that likely owns a lot of FNMA purchased at $2, and he now wants the GSM to “retain capital” so that they can pay dividends to HIM rather than to the people that continue to take the risk, namely the taxpayer.

See, it is all quite simple. Don;t fall for the crony-capitalist propaganda.

See, it is all pretty

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-06 15:18:46

‘The general idea is that the US taxpayers capitalized and took over all the risk of these failed corporations, and therefore should get all the profits as dividends’

I don’t care how it turns out, but since when did how much one paid for a stock matter? $2 was at a time when any value was questionable. When I was a controller, my duty was to the shareholders. Not the creditors, not the officers, the shareholders. Did these shareholders get to vote on this “general idea” or was it crammed down their throats?

Anyhoo, back in spring 2005 I said on my blog that the shareholders would get wiped out and the bonds made whole. Not because I had a crystal ball, but because that how things tend to go.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-01-06 16:45:59

Of course, you worked for the owners. When the Feds nationalized the company, the shareholders weren’t owners anymore.

 
Comment by Justme
2018-01-07 01:12:10

I can’t quite tell of you agree or disagree with me that Gary Hindes is just a crony capitalist wannabe that is trying to screw the taxpayer owners of FNM and FRE, Ben.

Also not sure whether shareholders got to vote on the recap deal. I’m guessing they did not, but that the board of directors voted to accept the deal. And if the board had not accepted the offer to recapitalize through a sale of senior preferred stock, the common stock would have gone to 0 instead of bottoming out at $2.

My main point of highlighting the $2 price is that right now FNMA stock is valued at $2.22 and a 12.74B market cap. If FNMA got to keep, say 2B in profits per year, then the FNMA stock would skyrocket and taxpayer owners would lose huge and Gary Hindes would get a windfall profit.

When Warren Buffett buys perpetual preferred stock in a distressed company, nobody complains that he gets all the dividends in perpetuity. I am simply arguing that the US taxpayer should be allowed the same type of deal as a Buffet would get. Anything else is a giveaway from the taxpayer to some undeserving speculator.

Again, I’m not really certain that Ben and I disagree on any of these matters, but I just wanted to spell out my thinking so that readers could follow along.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-07 07:05:59

‘If FNMA got to keep, say 2B in profits per year’

You didn’t even read the article. They aren’t keeping any profit. This POS company is going to zero anyway and taking a lot of yellen bucks to money heaven along with your “taxpayers” phony green paper.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-07 07:23:02

Not to mention all the crimes and fraud going on at Fraudie and Phony.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-01-06 12:46:30

Beaverton, OR Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/beaverton-or/market-trends/

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-06 13:10:00

Real journalists report on the flyover economy:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/01/02/americas-forgotten-towns-can-they-be-saved-or-should-people-just-leave/?utm_term=.2f19365329f2

Here one of the top-rated comments on the article:

“I have no interest in helping small rural communities that vote, election after election, for vile theocratic, racist, oligarchic candidates who have spent a generation swinging a sledgehammer at our sense of national identity. Screw these people. We need to wage economic warfare on these communities, not help them. I want to see them aggressively disrupted, painted as moochers and takers with the same language they use for racial minorities, and receive absolutely no help, infrastructure, or investment beyond what their own populations can provide. Screw rural America. I want my tax dollars paying for a light rail, new highways, repaired bridges, better technology infrastructure, etc. for real America - where most of the people, diversity, education, talent and jobs are.”

Comment by rms
2018-01-06 14:13:46

That map of “Unemployment by County in 2017″ shows the country’s worst conditions in California’s Central Valley. Want to give the state an enema? Insert the tube in Modesto.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-06 14:23:49

Central Valley

“I am starting to feel as if I am living in a Vandal state, perhaps on the frontier near Carthage around a.d. 530, or in a beleaguered Rome in 455. Here are some updates from the rural area surrounding my farm, taken from about a 30-mile radius. In this take, I am not so much interested in chronicling the flotsam and jetsam as in fathoming whether there is some ideology that drives it.

The city of Fresno is now under siege. Hundreds of street lights are out, their copper wire stripped away. In desperation, workers are now cementing the bases of all the poles — as if the original steel access doors were not necessary to service the wiring. How sad the synergy! Since darkness begets crime, the thieves achieve a twofer: The more copper they steal, the easier under cover of spreading night it is to steal more. Yet do thieves themselves at home with their wives and children not sometimes appreciate light in the darkness? Do they vandalize the street lights in front of their own homes?”

http://www.vdare.com/posts/victor-davis-hanson-approach-the-problem

California is the most impoverished state in the country.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-07 08:36:17

And that was written in 2011

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-06 14:18:02

We need to wage economic warfare on these communities

And they still don’t get why they lost the election.

Comment by strawman
2018-01-06 15:12:48

Whoever was able to write that lost a lot more than the election.

 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2018-01-06 15:41:48

They probably would leave for something better. But they suspect (and I think they are right) that they are being starved out to get them to leave for something worse and finally take the cramdown and become the domestic help for the city folks they hate. As long as they can scrape together food to eat they’d rather sit on their cache of guns and ammo and wait rather than put on the chains voluntarily.

Not that they’ve thought it through that far…most aren’t big thinkers :-). But I think that’s how it feels at an instinctive level.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-06 22:04:04

I read PK’s musings last week on the Gambler’s Ruin of Small Cities. He had some interesting insights on the historical contingency of why some small cities flourished and others fail. But mostly they are all prone to Gambler’s Ruin in a modern economy, but saving them might worthwhile due to the social costs involved in letting them implode.

Once upon a time, it was obvious what towns and small cities did: they served as central places serving a mainly rural population engaged in agriculture and other natural resource-based activities. The rural population was dispersed because arable land and other resources were dispersed, and so you had lots of small cities dotting the landscape.

Over time, however, agriculture has become ever less important as a share of the economy, and the rural population has correspondingly declined as a determinant of urban location. Nonetheless, many small cities survived and grew by becoming industrial centers, generally specialized in some cluster of industries held together by the Marshallian trinity of information exchange, specialized suppliers, and a pool of labor with specialized skills.

I’m not saying that there weren’t patterns of success and failure. Small cities were and are more likely to fail if they have miserable winters, more likely to come up with new tricks if they’re college towns and/or destinations for immigrants. Still, if you back up enough, it makes sense to think of urban destinies as a random process of wins and losses in which small cities face a relatively high likelihood of experiencing gambler’s ruin.

Again, it was not always thus: once upon a time dispersed agriculture ensured that small cities serving rural hinterlands would survive. But for generations we have lived in an economy in which smaller cities have nothing going for them except historical luck, which eventually tends to run out.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/30/opinion/the-gamblers-ruin-of-small-cities-wonkish.html

Comment by tj
2018-01-07 07:12:10

it makes sense to think of urban destinies as a random process of wins and losses in which small cities face a relatively high likelihood of experiencing gambler’s ruin.

it’s far more likely that they face ’socialist ruin’. but then we wouldn’t expect NYT contributors to get much right, would we?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-06 17:16:03

“real America - where most of the people, diversity, education, talent and jobs are.”

So where would that be? Chicago? Detroit? Baltimore? Hartford? New York? LOLZ.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-06 18:27:48

Millennials like to think they’re the center of the universe.

 
Comment by Anonymous
2018-01-07 08:09:47

I noticed the writer ignored things like smog, crime, homelessness, poverty, beggars at every intersection, etc.

 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-06 17:02:34

Reporting in from the youtube trenches, where I just watched the press conference from Camp David.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6K4pubuf3g

Around 16:00 in, and I quote: “We want DACA to happen”. In other words, Trump wants a bi-partisan deal with the Democrats and is willing to cave on DACA to get it done.

My thoughts on this: Big mistake. YUUUGE! He would be making the same pathetic blunder that Ronald Reagan did, doing the amnesty deal with Teddy Kennedy that had resulted in the clusterfark that we have today. And you can bet that we won’t get the wall, or end chain migration or the lottery system. With the Democrats, you have to be absolutely resolute on never, EVER compromising with them. And if I were Trump, Reagan is not someone I’d want to emulate, because I wouldn’t want to end up like he did. That’s what I thought of when I saw the silver ghost hovering around behind him in that conference.

On another note, seeing Steve Scalise there just about broke my heart. For what he’s been through, I don’t know how he stands there with a gentle smile on his face. God bless him.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-06 17:20:22

Democrats remind me of the old joke “we just want to put the tip in”.

However, Republicans go along every. single. time. I don’t despise Schumer and Pelosi nearly as much as I despise Ryan and McConnell.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-06 18:29:38

Knowing Trump, he will ask for something big in return (like full funding for the wall) and will give them back a watered down DACA.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-06 19:23:54

What he wants in return is the wall, an end to chain migration and an end to the diversity visa lottery. OK, fair enough. The problem, though, is that with Democrats, it’s only ever their end of the deal that gets upheld, as with Reagan’s foolish amnesty. That’s why I wouldn’t give them an inch.

With that said, I made a deal of sorts with Ben late in the campaign that I’d shut my pie-hole on immigration as long as the bombs stopped falling in the Middle East (and elsewhere). And I’m willing to stick to that, but I want to be sure the bombs really have stopped falling and I don’t think that’s the case. But, I do feel he’s made a good start in that direction. Pulling out of both Pakistan and Afghanistan and cooling his jets on Iran would re-assure me, though.

Comment by Overbanked
2018-01-06 19:33:25

What he wants is to be reelected and he’s smart enough to figure out that amnesty/immigration reform is a loser, but everyone including him wants cheap labor with no rights.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by butters
2018-01-06 20:40:28

Well he ain’t getting re-elected by making a mess of everything either. Whatever he and repubs touch they will make it worse…including immigration.

 
 
Comment by butters
2018-01-06 20:31:21

Now he wants to ‘fix’ the legal immigration, too.

C’mon just focus on one thing and get it done! The problem is his ego can’t handle the smaller things and he will end up making mess of everything…that’s the only thing I can see it happening. My prediction:

1. Boarder wall will be a boarder fence and only in certain areas.
Once the dems in charge, they will defund it.

2. DACA Amnesty will happen

3. Future cut down on some types of family visas (won’t amount to much but he can certainly save face.) - Again dems will likely reverse it when they get in power.

4. No E-verify (you think the repubs will go against coc? not happening in our lifetime)

5. More crackdown on illegals (this will stop when dems in power)

6. Nothing meaningful on sanctuary cities

7. Long delayed Amnesty for 11 million (I think it’s much higher) will happen. will start with path to green card but no citizenship. But dems will award citizenship when they are in power.

8. ‘Diversity’ visa will most likely be cancelled.

9. H1B will be replaced by point system, but with the same result. Meaning most h1b’s will qualify under whatever the point system they develop. So no different at all.

10. More temporary visas for seasonal workers.

11. At the end nature will take its course. Migration has always happened for one reason or another in mankind’s history. No boarder no laws can change that. It’s immutable that work will flow where cheap labor is whether it’s here or over dere.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-06 20:48:59

Very happy with the repeal of “Net Neutrality”, which was a 1984-type misnomer. My online sales have picked up quite a bit since they’re no longer throttled by mysterious algorithms.

I agree with Lionel, somehow he put the fear of God into Silly Valley. Now he needs to do the same for USPS. After his tweet about Amazon getting cheap rates from the post office, I wrote the White House about CHINA getting lower rates than American citizens. Today I got an email saying they’d received my message:

The White House, Washington
January 5, 2018

Thank you for contacting the White House. We are carefully reviewing your message.

President Donald J. Trump believes the strength of our country lies in the spirit of the American people and their willingness to stay informed and get involved. President Trump appreciates you taking the time to reach out.

If you wish to receive regular email updates from the White House, please Click Here. You may also wish to follow President Trump and the White House on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Youtube.

Sincerely,

The Office of Presidential Correspondence

For someone who is supposedly incompetent and mentally challenged, he’s got a GREAT communications office. This is the first time I’ve emailed. But I have used the WH phone line and the volunteers are terrific. I judge people and organizations a lot on communication. Most companies suck at it. His comms office is fantastic.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2018-01-07 09:10:57

I am against DACA amnesty because they are not the problem its the Parents that are.

We need to force the parents to speak English by eliminating interpreters at immigration hearings. End press 1 for English, give them a choice of which country they want to pledge allegiance too and go live there.

Get a lawyer file papers to delay any deportation, and when you become an america citizen your kids will too and there is no more daca.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-06 17:24:55

Too Short — Money In The Ghetto:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_H-V_I7c7ak

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-06 18:58:08

crushing.housing.losses.

Carrollton, TX Housing Prices Nosedive 12% YOY As Housing Demand Craters To 20 Year Low

https://www.movoto.com/carrollton-tx/market-trends/

Comment by azdude
2018-01-07 08:55:52

you always put your clients interests first!!!

 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2018-01-06 22:46:29

The lottery is interesting (in this case Powerball and MegaMillions). Jackpot size reflects ticket sales. Pretty even/slowly growing for a long time. But once the jackpot gets high, more and more people jump in, quickly driving it higher. Struck me as being similar to bubbling asset market behavior.

Comment by sod
2018-01-07 06:17:08

Yes, because $50 million isn’t enough to bother with, but $500 million, well, I’ll get off the couch for that (and all my friends and coworkers are buying tickets so I better too, FOMO!).

 
Comment by Anonymous
2018-01-07 08:15:37

And when it gets high enough, Nevadans will stand in line for an hour at the Baker, CA Valero (because NV doesn’t participate in the Powerball). Saw this last time the Powerball jackpot got super high.

 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-07 00:32:44

“….. And every closing a crime scene.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1F_1JTvG_Eg

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-07 07:03:54

Dang, thanks for the tune, jeff. I won’t lie, I have a weakness for that group.

 
 
Comment by azdude
2018-01-07 07:07:40

i bought a catering truck to serve u folks up some crow.

 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-07 08:08:00

Put em’ up!

This is a Thread jacking.

Layla in Real Life: 10 Songs Written About Pattie Boyd

BY ROGER CORMIER APRIL 28, 2016

1. THE BEATLES // “I NEED YOU” (1965)

2. THE BEATLES // “SOMETHING” (1969)

3. THE BEATLES // “FOR YOU BLUE” (1970)

4. DEREK AND THE DOMINOS // “LAYLA” (1970)

5 AND 6. RONNIE WOOD // “MYSTIFIES ME” (1974) AND “BREATHE ON ME” (1975)

7. GEORGE HARRISON // “SO SAD” (1974)

8. ERIC CLAPTON // “WONDERFUL TONIGHT” (1977)

9. ERIC CLAPTON // “SHE’S WAITING” (1985)

10. ERIC CLAPTON // “OLD LOVE” (1989)

http://mentalfloss.com/article/78851/layla-real-life-10-songs-written-about-pattie-boyd

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-07 09:18:57

Wonderful tunes conducive to foot stamping and tap dancing.

 
 
Comment by azdude
2018-01-07 08:54:35

trump said all the economic numbers were rigged and stocks were in a bubble under obama. Now things are legitimate and the market is going up because of him.
WTF?

same old sh@t?

 
Comment by azdude
2018-01-07 09:00:27

I have a lot of dry powder left b@tchez!

Comment by jeff
2018-01-07 09:16:14

“I have a lot of dry powder left”

Do you have any cream?

 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-07 09:11:53

palmetto

I don’t know how they got these up on youtube but enjoy them while they’re there.

The Beatles - Abbey Road (Full Album)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5f84qeXE2U

The Beatles - Let It Be (Full Album HQ)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdJMGrk134o

 
Comment by azdude
2018-01-07 09:33:22

“This debt crisis will not end without a reset.”

How many more trillions will corporate america borrow to prop up stock prices and enrich themselves?

Board rooms are now gambling halls.

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-01-07 09:38:27

Las Vegas(AngelPark Lindell), NV Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Housing Bubble Deflates

https://www.zillow.com/angel-park-lindell-las-vegas-nv/home-values/

https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg

 
 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post