January 7, 2018

Lower Sales, Higher Inventory And Price Loss

A report from the Edmonton Journal in Canada. “My name is Julia Lipscombe and I’m a renter. Not only that, I’m happy with our current situation. That said, my husband and I are in our mid-30s. Among our friends, we’re in the minority. I thought about this while reading a recent Globe and Mail article which featured parents who are buying property for their children, worried for their futures. The article features a single mom in Ajax (a town east of Toronto in the Greater Toronto Area), who bought each of her kids houses there. She rents them out, but carries the debt burden, and pays an extra $1,000 out of pocket each month. I certainly respect her concern for her children and she can do what she wants with her hard-earned money. But I sometimes wonder what all the panic is about.”

From Bloomberg. “Toronto’s housing market continues to cool as prices fell last month and the supply of homes for sale spiked ahead of new stress-test rules that went into effect this week. The benchmark home price index fell in December for the seventh consecutive month, according to data released Thursday by the Toronto Real Estate Board. The index has fallen 8.9 percent since May — the largest seven-month decline in the history of data going back to 2000.”

“Active listings in Toronto were up 172 percent from a year earlier, suggesting sellers were trying to sell before new mortgage lending regulations went into effect on Jan. 1. Toronto’s housing market decline has mainly been in the detached home segment.”

From CBC News. “With 2017 behind us, for the first time in a decade, so may be some of the highest housing prices. Real estate agent Steve Saretsky says the average price of detached homes in Vancouver fell 6.5 per cent last year. Most of the price movement was at the higher end of the market, he said. Saretsky says single family home sales have been soft for about 18 months. ‘I think with those weak sales, it has allowed inventory to creep up and that’s put a damper on prices,’ said Saretsky.”

“Overseas money coming into the Vancouver real estate market has dropped off significantly, he said. As well, there has been the implementation of a foreign buyers tax and new mortgage rules. ‘I think the impact is obviously pretty noticeable,’ said Saretsky.”

“In 2017, there were 2,434 single family home sales in Vancouver. That’s the lowest since 2,281 sales in 2008 and well off the peak of 3,946 sales in 2015. Saretsky, however, expects Vancouver home prices will continue to drop but stops short of saying the bubble has burst. ‘I don’t want to be the guy to call it, but it’s definitely a change in direction.’”

The Vancouver Sun. “The CEO of a Chinese company moved $750,000 from China to Metro Vancouver for a real estate deal with the help of nine strangers who each brought $50,000 into Canada for ‘tourist purposes,’ according to a B.C. Supreme Court judgment. The judgment sets out the method through which Hong Jie ‘Anita’ Wang, an executive in Shandong, China, transferred money for the purpose of buying a five-acre Port Coquitlam property with a B.C.-based partner.”

“The B.C. realtor who acted as the buying agent on the 2011 deal, Ravi Panwar, told Postmedia that such land deals — where offshore investors partner with B.C.-based counterparts — are ‘quite common,’ though he didn’t know how often they involve money shipments like those outlined in this case. Panwar said such domestic-foreign joint partnerships are as common in Metro Vancouver real estate today as they were in 2011 when he was the buying agent for the two Wangs, but he didn’t know how many used Anita Wang’s method of transferring money into Canada.”

“‘Until the court case came out and revealed how she transferred the money, I had no idea how the money got into this country, honestly,’ Panwar said, reached by phone while on holiday in Hawaii. A 2014 Real Estate Council of B.C. bulletin announced recent changes to Canada’s anti-money-laundering regulations meant ‘brokerages are now required to perform increased customer due diligence, in order to better evaluate their clients’ risk of money laundering.’”

From CBC News. “In 2017, the lowest number of homes in a decade were sold in Regina and the average price of a home dropped, according to the Association of Regina Realtors. ‘2017 was the slowest year we’ve had in the last 10 years,’ said Gord Archibald, CEO of the Association of Regina Realtors. ‘We had lower sales, higher inventory and we had some price loss taking place as well.’”

“At the end of the year, there was a decades-high number of unsold listings on the MLS system, according to the report. But Archibald said that it’s not all bad news, especially if you were looking to buy a home last year. Considering the glut of real estate and the dropping prices — on average down four per cent to $282,900 in 2017 from $294,600 in 2016 — it was a good year to buy.”

“Justus Smith, a realtor with Remax Crown Real Estate in Regina, said Regina’s oversupply of housing and especially new construction made the rental market more attractive while driving down prices. Smith said for those who bought a home during the last four to five years, if they were to have sold it in 2017 chances are it would have been at a loss. Smith said that in 2017 it was not uncommon for some homes or condos to be listed for six to nine months. When possible, Smith said patience was important, but that can be pricey.”

“‘It gets expensive to be patient. Especially if it’s vacant and you’re paying those condo fees every month, and the mortgage and insurance — it all adds up,’ said Smith.”

The Alaska Highway News. “Unemployment has been quite a rollercoaster ride over the past 12 months. There have definitely been a lot of fluctuations in Northeast B.C. We have definitely had higher unemployment rates than the rest of the province for most of the year. This is a trend that we have not experienced over the past 10 years. While CMHC statistics report the rental supply is expanding in southern B.C. and vacancy rates remain low, Fort St. John statistics do not make the front page as they truly are dismal. Vacancy rates for apartments have improved to 19.2% compared with the 30.7% vacancy reported last December. There was a very large inventory of units constructed in 2015/2016 that had to be absorbed into the market.”

“Housing starts were very low in the city this past year. There were 53 units constructed as of October compared with 72 during the same period in 2016, and 213 during the same period in 2015. It does not make economic sense to build a house when there is an oversupply of inventory. Developers and speculators have quickly realized that it is not feasible to continue to build on the 2014/2015 building mode.”

From Energetic City. “The number of property sales in Fort St. John jumped in 2017 compared to the previous year, though selling prices continued to trend downward, according to numbers published by the BC Northern Real Estate Board. In Fort Nelson, things were not quite as rosy. The Northern Rockies Regional Municipality saw a 30 percent reduction in the average price of a single-family detached home.”

“‘Most communities in our Board region have seen an increase in sales when compared to last year,’ said BCNREB President John Evans. ‘Overall, most markets have been steady in the face of the weak commodity prices of the last few years and the boom and bust cycles since the 1970s have not been repeating themselves.’”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-07 09:25:12

‘Active listings in Toronto were up 172 percent from a year earlier’

Did you read that Crow Watch? Just a little tinkering with loans and money launderers and shortage go poof. Hottest market on the planet 9 months ago.

Comment by 2banana
2018-01-07 11:22:53

Increase in supply
Decrease in sales
Not giving it away
Chasing the market down
Prices are sticky
What? I have to bring money to the table???
Jingle mail
Walk away
Concrete in the toilets
I am a victim
Fighting to save my house
What is a recourse loan?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-07 11:53:31

“…money launderers…”

Is the US planning to take on this problem?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-07 15:46:30

I’m looking forward to the Trump administration’s efforts to crack down on this problem.

How foreign investors launder their money in New York real estate
Ryan Cooper
November 13, 2017

One of the signature features of the modern age is the bottomless greed of the global economic elite. The richest people in the world — business tycoons, political elites, and wealthy heirs — spend half their time attempting to rake in more cash, and the other half protecting what they already have from as much taxation as possible. The key tool in this latter process is the tax haven: using legal chicanery (and, rather frequently, straight-up fraud) to move income and wealth into jurisdictions where it will be subject to little or no tax.

Tax havens have been an obvious problem for decades. But they’ve gotten special attention from the publication of leaked corporate documents in the Panama Papers, and most recently, the Paradise Papers.

Tax avoiders use all sorts of techniques. But I’d like to focus on one: real estate. It’s a technique that is both growing in importance, and could be addressed relatively easily.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-07 19:52:56

Speaking of - does the IRS ever verify the home sale exclusion on tax returns which results in $250,000 in tax free gains as long as the filer owned and lived in the house over 2 years? It seems to me that many people are using that to sell rental properties while claiming they lived in them when they really didn’t.

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Comment by Overbanked
2018-01-07 19:59:40

You haven’t been able to do that since 2009. It’s a proportional calculation now. As to your underlying question - no one gets audited and everyone knows it.

Comment by MacBeth
2018-01-07 20:47:38

“As to your underlying question - no one gets audited and everyone knows it.”

No, not everyone knows it. Hence, the question.

Not everyone in life is amoral or unethical. That you appear to assume otherwise is quite telling.

Something is wrong with your posts in general. I can’t put my finger on it. Perhaps I am wrong, or imagining things.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-07 20:58:12

Almost no one gets audited. I was a public and private accountant for years. The system is a joke.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-07 21:47:27

“You haven’t been able to do that since 2009.”

Come again?

“Publication 523 - Introductory Material
Key Points

This publication explains the tax rules that apply when you sell (or otherwise give up ownership of) a home. It also shows you how to do the calculations you’ll need to do.

If you sell your home at a significant profit (gain), some or all of that gain could be taxable. However, in most cases, if the home you sold counts as your main home, the first $250,000 of gain isn’t taxable—$500,000 if you are married and filing jointly.”


Comment by GreenEggsAndSpam
2018-01-07 15:53:01

Its too busy embroiled in a civil war.

Woman delivering meals to the homeless attacked with machete

Perhaps another diversity lottery winner, thanks to (((them)))

Other side of the pond, even more disturbing
Italy: Somalian Storms Delivery Room and Attempts to Rape Woman in Labour

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-07 20:14:12

Did you read that Crow Watch? Just a little tinkering with loans and money launderers and shortage go poof. Hottest market on the planet 9 months ago.

You’re kidding about a shortage in Toronto, right? The market was hot, but there was no shortage.

Just like in the US during the bubble years…major price increases, and lots of supply being built.

In Toronto, they were building 40,000 units per year for many years on total households of about 2MM–that’s 2% per year growth in housing stock—WAY, WAY too much.

The US is building at a rate of about half Toronto (1.2MM units on total base of about 125MM).

And California is less than the US as a whole at about 100k on 14MM total units (.7%)

Toronto was building at twice the rate of the US as a whole, and three times as much as in California.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-07 20:48:01

‘The US is building at a rate of about half Toronto (1.2MM units on total base of about 125MM). And California is less than the US as a whole at about 100k on 14MM total units (.7%) Toronto was building at twice the rate of the US as a whole, and three times as much as in California.’

Yet again, your hopeless inadequacies are held up as reasons for really stupid prices. How about we apply the federal government guaranteed loan cap for the “US as a whole” to California? Crater and crickets from you.

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-08 09:48:38

How about we apply the federal government guaranteed loan cap for the “US as a whole” to California? Crater and crickets from you.

You ignored my point that there was no housing shortage in Toronto. Not even close. The same conditions that led to housing prices collapse in the US in 2008-2010 exist in Toronto (home prices going up by 10%+ per year for many years, and building well over the needed amount for many years).

Now, to your tangent:

In markets where prices are most out of control in CA, prices exceed the even the higher loan limits…loan caps are not a limiting factor on prices.

Inland CA, where markets have been much slower to recover, the CA loan caps are equivalent to the US caps.

In other words…the data shows that there is something more important than loan caps when it comes to excessive home prices. If that wasn’t the case, you wouldn’t have median prices exceed those loan caps in many counties in CA (9 such counties by last count).

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-07 09:27:19

‘The article features a single mom in Ajax (a town east of Toronto in the Greater Toronto Area), who bought each of her kids houses there. She rents them out, but carries the debt burden, and pays an extra $1,000 out of pocket each month.’

Sucks to be you Ajax single mom. Right up there with Johnny Depp.

Comment by 2banana
2018-01-07 11:20:48

The massive debt that this single mom in now under.

Plus the massive alligator she has to feed every month.

Will she go into stripping before bankruptcy?

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-01-07 11:48:23

“…Among our friends, we’re in the minority…But I sometimes wonder what all the panic is about.”

Is that the sun or a train I am seeing at the other end of the tunnel? If it’s the sun, I’ll need a blanket for a picnic.

Comment by Sean
2018-01-08 06:40:52

A $1000 out of pocket each month.
X two kids = $2000
X 12 months = $24000
X let’s say 15 years = $360,000

Or she could have skipped the houses and put money every month into a mutual fund and given their kids the account numbers when they became adults. But what do I know? I’m a broke renter.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-07 09:31:17

‘Future generations, as we’re endlessly told, have no interest in cars, and though every stock analyst worthy of his (or her) bespoke Ermenegildo Zegnas has lamented how this might affect new car sales, few have turned their profit/loss statements to the classic car market.’

‘It is, according to Automotive News’ Larry P. Vellequette, a market in significant decline. The problem is one of simple supply and demand, says Vellequette. “Baby Boomers are still buying more classic cars than they are selling. That’s a problem [because] Boomers in the U.S. outnumber my generation by about 10 million people, so there’s probably not enough of us to buy all those collectible cars the Boomers have covered in their garages.”

‘Investment-grade British and German collectibles are actually down in comparison with their peaks when Boomers, burnt by their losses in real estate, started treating cars like stocks, pumping big money into cars they dreamed of in their youth.’

‘That comparison with the high-end real estate is more than justified. Just like the housing market, many in the classic car industry are in denial. Indeed, echoing Vancouver and Toronto industry experts after local luxury taxes were imposed on housing, ClassicDriver.com, claims that — shades of every, well, shady, real estate agent who’s ever sold a million-dollar condo in North Van — “the recent ‘cooling off’ period is positive in respect of the market’s long-term prosperity.”

‘But recent gains — again cue comparisons to Toronto and Vancouver’s hyper inflated housing prices — are simply unsustainable. According to Sportscardigest.com, for instance, a recently-sold 1968 Ferrari 330 GTC had an annual compounded return of 18.45 per cent per year; a Lamborghini Miura, an even more impressive, biopharm-like 21.5 per cent year-over-year appreciation. Even something as comparatively run-of-the-mill as a 1980s air-cooled Porsche has likely tripled in value over the last decade.’

‘But, the bigger problem — the one nobody is discussing — is that yesteryear’s high-end classics must also now compete with today’s future collectibles for the hearts and wallets of our millionaires. A 1969 Dino 246 and a 2018 488 GTB may share nothing mechanically, but they are both, at heart, impractical — admittedly, one more than the other — motorcars whose primary purpose is to flaunt the success of its owner. With Sergio Marchionne threatening to almost double Ferrari production and other uber marques — Lamborghini, Bentley et al — planning the same, even the one-per-cent may soon face a glut of overpriced four-wheel trinkets vying for their attention.’

‘No wonder Kevin Tynan, senior automotive analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, says “weakness in the collector-car market may foretell a more defensive stance from luxury and discretionary consumers.”

Comment by Neuromance
2018-01-07 10:08:13

‘Future generations, as we’re endlessly told, have no interest in cars

Everyone’s interested in cars. They’re convenient and provide freedom of movement. But they are expensive and have nontrivial carrying costs (insurance, gas, maintenance, parking). And when one is economically stressed, these cash outflows are avoided if at all possible.

“They say” a lot of things. Too often though “They” are shills or halfwits.

Comment by DF
2018-01-07 10:56:34

It’s a lot worse for classic cars. For the really nice ones, you need a space in the garage to store them (need to protect from the elements and theft), and you might take them out once or twice a week. It becomes a major case of “That which you own owns you”.

The closest we have to a classic car is an heirloom 1977 f-100 that was my FIL’s daily driver. It’s usually parked in the street, and it serves a useful purpose as our only vehicle with a bed.

Basically, a lot of classic cars are just big money/time/space pits. Personally, if I was going to get into classic cars, I’d probably get into older trucks/SUVs like Early Broncos, and International Harvesters, as opposed to ’60s muscle cars.

Comment by rms
2018-01-07 14:44:37

It becomes a major case of “That which you own owns you”.

“He who is not contented with what he has, would not be contented with what he would like to have.” —Socrates

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Comment by oxide
2018-01-07 18:39:50

Honest question: what is the youngest model classic car? Maybe a 70s Corvette? I can’t think of anything “classic” past 1980. So at best, you have a pool a the same exact old machines that keep getting older. Soon enough, owners will sell them for peanuts just to unload the maintenance cost onto someone else. Or worse, just junk them.

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Comment by Overbanked
2018-01-07 20:40:23

In Southern California, this is a thing:


Comment by rms
2018-01-08 08:01:48

How old does a car have to be these days for an exclusion from smog testing in California?

Comment by DF
2018-01-08 08:15:53

I dunno about CA, but I think it’s 1982 or 1983 or older for ABQ.

Comment by Young Deezy
2018-01-08 08:44:33

1974 for CA to be smog exempt. It used to be a rolling exemption, where it increased a yea each year, but Arnold killed that when he was gov :(

Also, as for the Japanese classic car thing, it’s Gen X finally being old enough and having enough disposable income to do what the Boomers did and try to recapture their youth by buying a part of it. Not all the resto-custom Japanese classics look as awful as the ones in the pinterest link though.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-07 11:23:47

Just part of the “everything bubble.” What hasn’t been affected by Granny Yellenbucks?

Comment by Lurker
2018-01-07 15:26:15

“‘Investment-grade British and German collectibles are actually down in comparison with their peaks when Boomers, burnt by their losses in real estate, started treating cars like stocks, pumping big money into cars they dreamed of in their youth.’”

If we were to pick apart everything wrong with this sentence we’d be here all week. Starting with the phrase “investment-grade [cars].”

Comment by Sean
2018-01-08 06:50:21

You can’t compare British and German antique cars to American cars, but Boomers unfortunately make this mistake. Big difference between a Ducati and a mass produced GM product. And while I love the 60s muscle cars they aren’t worth nearly as much as some old guy with a ‘trailer queen’ GTO thinks it’s worth. As these Boomers die off, they’ll pass their princess down to their kids and grandkids who have zero use for them, except as a symbol of how much they loved and cherished that car.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-07 09:35:02

While CMHC statistics report the rental supply is expanding in southern B.C. and vacancy rates remain low, Fort St. John statistics do not make the front page as they truly are dismal.’

Huh. The media does the same thing down here in unfrozenland. Ignore anything that might make buying a shack less desirable, play up the get rich quick stuff, pay politicians off to keep easy money going. And the money laundering! We got you guys beat on that.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-07 09:38:29

‘The British Columbia Lottery Corporation (BCLC) is raising eyebrows after demanding half a million dollars to produce internal documents related to money laundering at its land-based casinos.’

‘This week, word broke that the Unite Here union, which represents the province’s casino workers, had filed a request under BC’s freedom of information (FOI) laws for all BCLC documents in the past five years that dealt with anti-money laundering (AML) compliance at BC casinos operated by Great Canadian Gaming Corp.’

‘BCLC’s response to Unite Here’s filing was to insist that the union first provide a C$252k (US$201k) deposit on an ultimate charge of $504k that the Crown corporation insisted was required for it to produce the requested information.’

‘Unite Here rep Marc Hollin told the Vancouver Sun that the payment demand left him “absolutely flabbergasted.” Hollin called the fee “prohibitively high” and let him with the impression that the fee “was a deterrent to accessing information.”

‘BCLC has been scraping egg off its face ever since last September, when the province’s newly elected NDP government discovered that the previous Liberal regime had buried a damning report detailing rampant money laundering at BC casinos, with particularly egregious behavior at the River Rock Casino in Richmond, day-to-day management of which is the responsibility of Great Canadian Gaming.’

‘BCLC has a long history of fighting the public’s FOI requests regarding its casino operations, and using taxpayer dollars to do so. Six years ago, BCLC spent over half a million dollars appealing orders from BC’s information and privacy commissioner regarding an entirely different spate of AML shortcomings, leading BC’s Freedom of Information and Privacy Association (FIPA) to slam BCLC’s “shocking record of non-compliance.”

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-01-07 09:41:56

Las Vegas(Angelpark Lindell), NV Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY



Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-07 10:04:19

11211 92 STREET, Fort St. John, British Columbia

$304,900 CAD
4 Beds 2 Baths 1,864 Sqft

Construction style: Manufactured


Comment by oxide
2018-01-07 14:50:46

Because they aren’t making any more land in bumblefrick. Must be joyous in winter.

Comment by aNYCdj
2018-01-07 21:39:45

A member municipality of the Peace River Regional District, the city encompasses a total area of about 22 square kilometres (8.5 sq mi) with 18,609 residents at the 2011 census[2] Located at Mile 47, it is one of the largest cities along the Alaska Highway.

Comment by aNYCdj
2018-01-07 21:43:49

manufactured home with these extremes…..ok

The highest temperature ever recorded in Fort St. John was 38.3 °C (101 °F) on 16 July 1941.[16] The coldest temperature ever recorded was −53.9 °C (−65 °F) on 11 January 1911.[17]

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-07 10:07:28

“Sydney property prices tipped to fall 10 per cent in 2018″


Conceding a 10% decline in 12 months means a 20%+ decline.

Comment by azdude
2018-01-07 10:38:20

leave an address and I will have some CROW delivered to you.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-07 10:45:57

Right where you are…. in your skull.

Comment by Neuromance
2018-01-07 10:37:44

I was just considering the Fed’s money printing from a “big picture” angle and how that is a remarkably effective substitute for overt taxation (IF they can exhibit restraint, and that’s a big question):

• Let’s say there’s a billion people who use dollars.
• I print a dollar on my printer and it extracts 1/1-billionth of a dollar of purchasing power from the members of the dollar ecosystem.
• The central bank prints up 4 trillion dollars and it extracts 4000 dollars of purchasing power the members of the dollar ecosystem.

And then they inject that purchasing power into the FIRE sector and government. So the net result is that one time tax, then warping the economy to grow around that money source. And no one’s the wiser for what had just happened, other than they feel poorer. Like pickpocketing.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-07 11:27:59

It hollows out entire eCONomies as discretionary income plummets and retail sales go in the tank. It’s full circle once shareholders and bondholders get burned as corporations go BK.

Comment by 2banana
2018-01-07 11:37:32

People catch on - eventually.

See Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Argentina, etc.

The mad rush to assets that can’t be “printed away” to nothing…

Comment by 2banana
2018-01-07 11:45:36

How quickly will the dollar collapse?
Gold Money - January 4, 2018 - Alasdair Macleod

The dollar has enjoyed a considerably longer life as an unbacked state-issued currency than the mark did, but do not think the monetary factors have been much different. The Bretton Woods agreement, designed to make the dollar appear “as good as gold”, was cover for the US Government to fund Korea, Vietnam and other foreign ventures by monetary inflation, which it did without restraint. That deceit ended in 1971, and today the ratio of an ounce of gold to the dollar has moved to about 1:1310 from the post-war rate of 1:35, giving a loss of the dollar’s purchasing power, measured in the money of the market, of 97.3%.

Updated for today’s monetary system, this is precisely how the American government finances itself. Instead of printing notes, it is the expansion of bank credit, issued by banks licenced by the government with this purpose in mind, that ends up being subscribed for government bonds. The same methods are employed by all advanced nations, giving us a worrying global dimension to the ultimate failure of fiat currencies, whose only backing is confidence in the issuers.

The last thing anyone owning units of a state-issued currency will admit to is that they may be valueless. Only long after it has become clear to an educated impartial monetary observer that this is the case, will they abandon the currency and get rid of it for anything while someone else will still take it in exchange for goods. In the case of the German hyperinflation, it was probably only in the last six months or so that the general public finally abandoned the mark, despite its legal status as money.

Comment by tj
2018-01-07 13:46:11

The dollar has enjoyed a considerably longer life as an unbacked state-issued currency than the mark did, but do not think the monetary factors have been much different.

but the monetary factors WERE different. both paper marks and reichsmarks had large quantities created off the books. at least dollars are accounted for.. even if there are lots of them.

The last thing anyone owning units of a state-issued currency will admit to is that they may be valueless.

that’s because dollars aren’t valueless. they aren’t backed (confidence isn’t backing), but they aren’t valueless either.

i think macleod is ignorant.

Comment by tj
2018-01-07 14:30:12

and then there’s this..

macleod says: “The dollar has enjoyed a considerably longer life as an unbacked state-issued currency..”

and then he says: “whose only backing is confidence in the issuers.”

so which is it macleod? backed or unbacked?

i guess i’ll add that he’s confused as well as ignorant.

Comment by oxide
2018-01-07 14:54:40

one time tax

It’s not a one-time tax. The money inflation grows the number of dollars that your home is worth, so you pay more taxes to your local government. Probably more sales tax too. And globalism has seen to it that our wages do not grow accordingly.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-07 14:56:10

Donk… There is no inflation when there is no wage growth.

Comment by redmondjp
2018-01-08 00:02:01

Only according to your limited definition of inflation, HA.

We learned many different definitions and types of inflation in college economics. Yours is only one of many.

You need to get out more.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-08 09:25:05

Incorrect. Wage growth is inflation by definition.

Comment by Young Deezy
2018-01-08 08:46:33

Uhhh, yeah MB that’s incorrect.

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Comment by azdude
2018-01-07 10:42:05

when the dollar plunges your trips to walmart will go up substantially.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-07 11:51:07

Especially since you will be reporting for work duty.

Comment by azdude
2018-01-07 13:33:18

serving up crow since 2008.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-07 10:50:26

“Hong Kong’s home prices may fall by half in next 10 years, Deutsche Bank says”


In other words, an 80% price decline over the next 36 months.

Comment by Lurker
2018-01-07 16:05:23

Amazing for a local paper to even publish such a headline. That article has some great “by the way” asides:

‘”‘As an international finance centre, if Hong Kong home prices fall by 50 per cent then so will New York and Tokyo,” Cheung said.”

“We expect only 11.5 per cent of total households will be able to afford an average private housing unit by 2019 from the current level of 16.9 per cent.”

“As the population ages, fewer households will be able to stretch their mortgages to the maximum tenure of 30 years, the report said.”

“Hong Kong home prices are now nearly 90 per cent above their peak in 1997″

“Home prices will be supported by sound economic fundamentals.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-07 11:09:59

‘Until the court case came out and revealed how she transferred the money, I had no idea how the money got into this country, honestly,’ Panwar said, reached by phone while on holiday in Hawaii.’

Honest Ravi here gots no idea how Wang brought in the loot. Probably didn’t ask.

Comment by oxide
2018-01-07 14:59:02

buying a five-acre Port Coquitlam

Darnit, they’re getting wise. It’s one thing the buy a floating box of air in a tower with no land. But 5 acres is a future colony. Do the Canadians know this?

Comment by GreenEggsAndSpam
2018-01-07 15:44:07

Theyre too stoned and stupid to care, suffering from trump derangement syndrome even though trump runs a different country and theyre safely ensconced in a developing asylum run by a total cuck and likely pedo - look up the symbol used by the Trudeau “foundation”, its been documented by the FBI.

Society collapses all around them and they blame someone who might as well be a comic book character given his impact on their daily lives.

Comment by 2banana
2018-01-07 11:12:55

What do all these states have in COMMON?

2banana’s Law:
long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy

And should housing prices rationally respond?


Americans Are Ditching These Five States In Record Numbers
01/07/2018 - ZeroHedge

Apparently surging violent crime, massive tax hikes and insolvent public pensions are bad for attracting new residents…who knew? On the other hand, 364 days of sunshine per year, minimal crime, brand new infrastructure and some of the lowest tax rates in the country seems to be, to our complete shock, somewhat appealing to folks looking to relocate.

1. People continue to flee the indebted, pension ponzi burdened liberal states of America in record numbers, with Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey and California all ranking at the very top of the most ditched states of 2017.

2. The natural migratory pattern of New England and California’s liberal elitists seems to be toward cheaper and lower taxed states in the Southeast and Western portions of the country…go figure.

Of course, this data from North American shouldn’t come as much of a surprise as we recently noted that Illinois lost a staggering ~125,000 residents in aggregate, or roughly 1 man/woman/child every 4.3 minutes for the entire year of 2017.

Of course, the overall trend of folks moving out of ‘Blue States’ and into “Red States’ could spell disaster conservative politicians running in national elections…that is unless the folks ditching their over-taxed, insolvent, liberal bastions on the West Coast and New England actually understand that the conservative policies in their new home states are precisely what attracted them there in the first place…somehow we doubt that will happen.

Comment by Overbanked
2018-01-07 12:21:45

I was surprised that there was little to no pushback on the tax reform from Texas and Florida. They have little to no income tax but much higher property tax rates than California. I suppose property values are so low it doesn’t matter.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-07 12:33:47

Prosper, TX Real Estate & Homes for Sale
1,006 Homes


Prosper, TX Real Estate & Homes for Sale 1,006 Homes
sorted by price reduced


Check out the prices on these beauties. When I was there in 2014, they were building on both sides of the farm to market for miles. Billboards everywhere said “starting at $900,000, zero down!”

Chosen at random:

1020 Cliff Creek Dr Prosper, TX 75078
5 beds 8 baths 4,708 sqft
New Construction
Price cut: -$35,000 (1/6)

Price History
Date Event Price $/sqft Source
01/06/18 Price change $1,040,000-3.3% $220 Huntington Hom…
07/08/17 Price change $1,075,000-7.2% $228 Huntington Hom…
06/06/17 Price change $1,158,000+1.3% $245 Huntington Hom…
05/06/17 Price change $1,143,000+0.6% $242 Huntington Hom…
05/04/17 Price change $1,136,000+0.0% $241 Huntington Hom…
03/23/17 Price change $1,135,731+2.6% $241 Huntington Hom…
03/10/17 Price change $1,106,731+1.0% $235 Huntington Hom…
03/09/17 Price change $1,095,731+0.9% $232 Huntington Hom…
03/04/17 Price change $1,085,990-3.1% $230 Huntington Hom…
11/15/16 Listed for sale $1,120,990 $238 Huntington Hom…


Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-07 12:41:24

Looks like a bloodbath.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-07 15:52:20

I don’t get the strategy of increasing the asking price after the home didn’t sell at $1.086 million. Doesn’t a seller normally have to reduce the price of a place that won’t sell in order to attract a willing buyer?

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Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
Comment by jeff
2018-01-07 18:44:30

“As we rode up the romantic funicular, I said to Alan, ‘Let’s buy this,’ and he said to me, ‘Could you please adopt a poker face so we don’t have to pay full price?’ I was not able to contain my excitement and we paid more than full price.”

I used to know a girl like that, we called her sheets.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-07 20:10:30

Ahoy, Hwy50.

I find this impressive, if true:

‘In the past the property situated in the desert mountains has been listed for $12.9 million to $35 million, but this time the auction is “no reserve,” which means there’s no minimum price.’

This should be one to watch…a potential bellwether of the future direction of the high end market in the post-Chinese mad money era.

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-07 20:18:40

I don’t get the strategy of increasing the asking price after the home didn’t sell at $1.086 million. Doesn’t a seller normally have to reduce the price of a place that won’t sell in order to attract a willing buyer?

That is certainly not typical in residential.

However, when selling commercial properties, you typically ask somewhat more than you are willing to accept…that allows the seller to allow an interested buyer to negotiate you downward, making them feel like they got a “deal”.

Comment by redmondjp
2018-01-08 00:04:22

Yup, just like pricing things to sell on Craigslist!

Comment by 2banana
2018-01-07 11:18:26

Theft at open houses much?

Heck - Somebody is going to steal the robot!


Hundreds of robot realtors are helping Bay Area renters find new homes
Mark Austin — January 6, 2018 - Digital Trend

Some potential renters in California meet an unusual assistant when they show up for a tour of their new dream home — a robot realtor named “Zenny” that gives a tour of the house, wirelessly connected to high-tech property management startup Zenplace.

The Mercury News recently followed one prospective buyer as he checked out a place in Santa Clara. “I wasn’t expecting a robot,” chuckled Gilbert Serrano as he arrived at the two-bedroom rental house. The three-foot-tall robot had an iPad mounted at the top, connected to real estate agent Rabia Levy in her Sunnyvale office. “I’m a person too!” she responded.

Zenplace has hundreds of robots in the Bay Area, and using them for home tours can reduce much of the time agents coordinating and scheduling visits with prospective buyers.

The company is backed by Bay Area investment tycoons, and it uses the latest technology to streamline the process of property management. A.I. machine learning can predict potential problems with rental properties, letting owners be proactive with repairs. The machine learning A.I. can also quickly assess available vendors, both locally and across the nation, to find the most capable and competitive for a specific job.

So, for instance, not only can it tell you a tenant’s dishwasher is likely to fail within the next three months, it can also find a top-rated replacement and a local contractor who will install it.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-07 20:28:04

Oooh, lookie there, another tech unicorn.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-07 21:59:10

5 kids 4 + me

Still Mom and Dad did very well by us all.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-08 08:00:46

Glad to hear it, jeff. My parents the same.

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Comment by jeff
2018-01-08 16:28:15

“My parents the same.”

That generation from that area just seemed smarter than the average Bears.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-01-07 11:24:22

Addison, TX Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY On Skyrocketing Housing Vacancies


Comment by 2banana
2018-01-07 11:53:07

The QE party is over in Japan…

The great QE unwind in America picks up speed in 2018…

The ECB tapering…

Almost like big picture things are happening…


QE Party Over, even by the Bank of Japan
Wolf Richter • Jan 5, 2018

On December 20, following the decision by the BOJ to keep its short-term interest-rate target at negative -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield target just above 0%, he’d brushed off criticism that this prolonged easing could destabilize Japan’s banking system. “Our most important goal is to achieve our 2% inflation target at the earliest date possible,” he said.

On the other hand…

In reality, after years of blistering asset purchases, the Bank of Japan disclosed today that total assets on its balance sheet actually inched down by ¥444 billion ($3.9 billion) from the end of November to ¥521.416 trillion on December 31. While small, it was the first month-end to month-end decline since the Abenomics-designed “QQE” kicked off in late 2012.

On net, and from a distance, the first decrease of the BOJ’s assets in the era of Abenomics was barely noticeable. Total assets are still a massive pile, amounting to about 96% of Japan’s GDP (the Fed’s balance sheet amounts to about 23% of US GDP):

None of this – neither the 12 months of “tapering” nor now the “QQE Unwind” – was announced. They happened despite rhetoric to the contrary.

Japan’s national debt reached 250% of GDP at the end of 2016, by far the highest in the world. Between the JGB holdings by the BOJ and by state-owned institutions, such as the Government Pension and Investment Fund, Japanese authorities now control the majority of Japan’s national debt, and there won’t be a debt crisis – though it could trigger other crises. And it appears that the BOJ decided that this might be enough control. Hence the end of QQE.

The ECB began tapering in April 2017, slashing its monthly asset purchases from €80 billion to €60 billion. As of January 2018, the ECB has tapered further, cutting its monthly purchases to €30 billion. But unlike the BOJ, the ECB communicated this tapering via rumors, speeches, and finally press conferences that were spread all over the media.

So the high-octane QE juice that has powered global financial markets for years is beginning to evaporate, with the ECB being the last but fading holdout among the biggest central banks.

Comment by azdude
2018-01-07 13:34:25

never bet against the printing press, ECON 101.

Comment by Neuromance
2018-01-07 12:27:05

“Control is its own reward.”

Comment by Neuromance
2018-01-07 12:57:41

“Often wrong, but never in doubt.”

Comment by El Tr0ll de Marquis
2018-01-07 13:44:26

Seattle area counties set new record high home prices in Devember. Like the energizer bunny….keeps going and going….up.

Comment by azdude
2018-01-07 14:05:52

the fundamentals r valid

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-07 14:41:55

…. and prices fall sometimes. Sometimes alot.

Seattle(Capitol Hill), WA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY



Comment by azdude
2018-01-07 17:00:19

all aboard the crow train!

Comment by redmondjp
2018-01-08 00:06:46

Wrong as usual, HA, inventory here is at record lows:


(no special instructions needed either, the blog post title says it all)

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-08 06:39:28

‘inventory here is at record lows’

Yeah, just like Toronto and Vancouver not long ago. What happened to the shortages?!

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Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-08 09:50:54

Shortage of listings is not a shortage of housing. Even if there was a shortage of listings in Toronto, there was not a shortage of physical housing.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-08 12:01:41

You’re backpedalling my good friend.

Alameda, CA Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY


Comment by b
2018-01-07 19:15:34

Seattle had a 100K people move in during 2016. There is more demand but that will drop off and folks will be in for a rude suprise

Comment by jeff
2018-01-07 22:23:50

Somehow I trust b’s numbers more than the Census.

More Than 1,000 People Are Moving to Seattle Every Week, Census Report Shows

by Ana Sofia Knauf • Mar 27, 2017 at 2:58 pm

The Seattle area is getting more crowded week by week, the Puget Sound Business Journal reports:
The Seattle area is the ninth fastest-growing metro in the nation, gaining about 1,100 residents per week according to population estimates issued this morning by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The federal agency released July 2016 estimates for 382 metros and 3,142 counties across the nation. The July 2016 population estimate for Seattle was 3,798,902.

Well, this might explain why Seattle housing is in such short supply. The smart folks at The Urbanist explained how booming populations affect housing back in February:

Housing supply tends to lag behind housing demand; it could be in the coming years supply finally approaches demand. About 10,000 apartments are set to open in 2017, and more than 12,000 more are slotted for 2018. At the very least, with record-setting apartment growth expected, we have ample reason to expect the population growth trend to continue. Since King County averages 1.8 people per apartment, we could see growth in excess of 20,000 per year continue a bit longer if those expected apartments are filled.


Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-07 20:39:32

I am constantly contacted by headhunters for jobs in Seattle. Sorry, but no. Even if it was affordable the weather would get to me.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-07 22:15:47

I’m out

15 Reasons Why You Should Move to Seattle Immediately

THE BLOG 02/22/2016 10:23 am ET Updated Dec 06, 2017


Comment by redmondjp
2018-01-08 00:09:12

Why? The weather is fine here in Seattle. 2/3 of our country is freezing their keisters off, and here we are at 45 degrees F. Sure, you don’t see the sun for a long time, but they have light therapy for that!

Comment by Avg Joe
2018-01-08 12:42:08

No, please, don’t convince even more people to live here.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-08 13:12:33

All my good friends in one place.

Kenmore, WA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY


Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-01-07 13:50:31

Boulder, CO Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY


Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-01-07 14:18:00

1968 Ferrari 330 GTC….

Should this example be used to convey investment in classics?

Comment by Lurker
2018-01-07 15:24:07

“well off the peak of 3,946 sales in 2015″

This refrain keeps popping up, no matter the city or country - the peak was 2015. As if this were common knowledge then and now. I’m sure it comes as a surprise to many, many people. Especially sellers and people who bought in the last two years. “It was?”

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-07 15:32:15

‘The Northern Rockies Regional Municipality saw a 30 percent reduction in the average price of a single-family detached home…‘Overall, most markets have been steady in the face of the weak commodity prices of the last few years and the boom and bust cycles since the 1970s have not been repeating themselves.’

30% sounds like a bust John.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-07 17:13:33

Wu-Tang Clan — Enter The 36 Chambers (1993):


Comment by azdude
2018-01-07 17:25:01

how did our economy go from being based on debt rather than savings and production?

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-07 18:41:10

One idiot at a time.

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-01-07 20:47:09

How long does it take to double yer monies in a savings acct? … Verses, how long does it take to double yer cash withdrawal with a credit card?

Follow, … the easy money … (time is a commodity, right)

Comment by azdude
2018-01-08 05:32:05

so your saying it was the expansion of fractional reserve banking and credit? I think your on to something here.

Comment by Overbanked
2018-01-07 21:34:19

The Golden Globes. BARF.

Summed up at 3:49 here


Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-08 10:43:32

The people being cheered today will be thrown under the bus in the near future for failing a purity test.

Hollyweird, what a Fukushima!

Comment by drumminj
2018-01-17 20:39:53


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