Hitting The Accelerator As A Cliff Approaches
A report from the Denver Post in Colorado. “Metro Denver should see another 12,000 apartments come on the market in 2018, continuing a long and unprecedented streak of multi-family construction, said Greg Willett, chief economist with RealPage. Builders delivered 10,854 new apartments in metro Denver last year, and tenants soaked up 10,201 of them, keeping the occupancy rate stable at 94.3 percent, according to RealPage. Are apartment developers hitting the accelerator as a cliff of demand approaches or are they simply trying to keep up in a housing market that continues to defy expectations? ‘It could be tough for property owners and operators to push rents much in the neighborhoods that will get the most new product, including the urban core,’ Willett said.”
“Apartment rents nationally have risen for eight consecutive years, but the rate of increase has slowed. Two years ago, Portland, Ore., led the country with a 12-percent gain in rents. Last year, rents there climbed a modest 1.9 percent. Apartment rents rose less than 1 percent in Kansas City, Mo.; Nashville; San Antonio; Pittsburgh; West Palm Beach, Fla.; and Washington, D.C. Austin, once a hot market, suffered a 0.4 percent decline in apartment rents.”
The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “Rents are still rising in Greater Boston, but not as quickly as they were a couple of years ago. The opening of new apartment buildings in the region has helped to blunt the surge in rents, according to two new reports, the latest sign that the wave of development is starting to have an effect on housing costs. In 2017, large apartment complexes opened from the Seaport to Brighton to Jamaica Plain, and in several cities and towns around Boston. All told, about 6,000 units have opened in the core of Greater Boston in the last 12 months, according to The Collaborative Companies, a real estate marketing firm in Boston.”
“That’s prompting landlords to compete for tenants by offering incentives like a month’s free rent. It’s giving renters — at least at the high end of the market — a bit of a break. ‘You have to be flexible on concessions. That has become the norm,’ said Sue Hawkes, managing director of TCC. ‘But investors still clearly have a lot of faith and confidence in the Boston marketplace.’”
“Boston officials said the city issued permits for more housing in 2017 — 5,349 units — than it has in any year since it started keeping records in the early 1990s. Through November, the region as a whole was on track for its second-busiest year for multifamily permits since 2004, behind only 2015.”
From Curbed Atlanta in Georgia. “Prospective renters of Atlanta may have seen fire-sale deals lately at new apartment hives from Cheshire Bridge to the heart of Midtown: free rent, and access to top-flight amenities, for one or even two months. Could it be a sign the city’s long-booming apartment market is, like the weather, cooling off and bowing to oversupply? (After all, nearly 12,000 new rentals were expected to debut across metro Atlanta last year alone).”
The Greenville Journal in South Carolina. “As more apartments are going up in Greenville, rents are going down — at least for now. ‘The new supply of apartments is likely driving the decrease in rent prices, a trend seen in many national markets as well,’ said Sydney Bennet, senior research associate at Apartment List. ‘New construction causing rent decreases doesn’t necessarily mean apartments are overbuilt. It could just be a market correction for pent-up demand and rent increase in previous years.’”
From WNCT in North Carolina. “Monday’s Greenville City Council meeting brought to light the results of a city issues student housing study. The city prompted study from 2017, found that student housing complexes average more than an eleven percent vacancy rate. Jessica Rossi, planner with the firm Kimley-Horne, said those properties found more than three miles away from campus hold some of the highest vacancies with anywhere between 18-30 percent.”
“The city has two properties currently in construction less than half a mile from ECU’s campus. Many worry the vacancy rates in those properties will only increase.”
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Apartment renters are finally getting a break in North Texas. Analysts at RealPage said a flood of new apartments hitting the market this year has put a lid on rent increases. ‘With so many new properties moving through the initial leasing process, there’s no real pricing power in the neighborhoods where cranes dot the skyline,’ said Greg Willett, RealPage’s chief economist.”
“Willett said average quoted apartment rents are actually declining slightly in areas with widespread building, including central Dallas, Richardson, Allen, McKinney and Rowlett. Apartment rents in the hot Frisco market are growing at less than 1 percent. Willett said that in the D-FW area, apartments are opening faster than tenants are filling them up. During the fourth quarter, developers completed 9,141 rental units. Net leasing in the same period totaled only 4,444 units.”
“The fourth-quarter apartment completion total was the second-highest on record in D-FW. For all of 2017, builders in North Texas constructed about 7,600 more apartments than were leased during the 12-month period. An additional 30,296 apartments were under construction in D-FW at the start of 2018. That’s down from almost 40,000 units a year earlier but is still one of the largest totals in the country.”
“The apartment-building cycle shows no sign of coming to a halt in North Texas, RealPage researchers say. Willett said developers of new projects are using more giveaways to lure renters. ‘A month free is routine in the product going through lease-up,’ he said. ‘Some are going to two months free on the biggest units.’”
The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “As high as rent in SF is, that number was down month-over-month in December, and was also down month-over-month in November of 2017. Also down month-over month in December: Concord, Pleasanton, San Ramon, Petaluma. Where can you find ‘affordable’ rent? Surprisingly, Oakland (down 6.4 percent) and Palo Alto (down 3.9 percent), as well as Burlingame and Alameda, among other cities.”
The San Mateo Daily Journal in California. “San Mateo renters may be having a happy new year as monthly fees recently dipped for some apartment dwellers, but national real estate experts are pessimistic the economic relief will last. Local property managers have been quick to note though the asking price data is not representative of the amounts paid by most locally who are often living in older units for less rent.”
“Apartmentlist has acknowledged its data trends expensive, as the database skews toward tracking new listings which are often luxury units toting hefty asking prices. While rents are still higher than most other areas across the state and nation, even a marginal slowing in the astronomical price jumps known in years past may be considered a win for exhausted renters, said Chris Salviati with Apartmentlist.”
“‘At a certain point there are only so many additional rent increases the market will be able to handle,’ he said. ‘Basically even though the Bay Area has a lot of high-paying jobs, there is a limit to what people are willing to pay for rent.’”
‘Boston officials said the city issued permits for more housing in 2017 — 5,349 units — than it has in any year since it started keeping records in the early 1990s’
But, shortage? You aren’t fooling anyone Globe, rents have been falling there for a couple of years.
‘The fourth-quarter apartment completion total was the second-highest on record in D-FW. For all of 2017, builders in North Texas constructed about 7,600 more apartments than were leased during the 12-month period. An additional 30,296 apartments were under construction in D-FW at the start of 2018. That’s down from almost 40,000 units a year earlier but is still one of the largest totals in the country.’
‘The apartment-building cycle shows no sign of coming to a halt in North Texas’
So we went from a slightly negative absorption in the first quarter to a whopping 7k units by the end of the year, and canyons of supply on the way. Hmmm, seems what’s driving this doesn’t have anything to do with supply and demand. It’s like these people are acting irrationally or something.
From the DFW article:
“We’re seeing mixed signals on the building front in Dallas-Fort Worth,” Willett said. “Capital sources consistently report some hesitancy to continue to go all-in locally, and a decrease in the number of units under construction reinforces that positioning.”
“However, at the same time, building permit authorizations are trending upward, suggesting construction starts are near for another wave of properties.”
So despite the obvious oversupply, permits are rising again and another flood is on the way. Luxury DFW apartments for everyone!
This is key to understand what’s going on. My favorite example is that Tempe AZ complex that sold for twice what it cost to build and one year after. (2016, IIRC). So, if you had pulled this off, what would you do? Build as many as your could as quick as you could. There clearly isn’t enough demand in DFW, so what’s the motivation? Greed. It’s a speculative bubble and the commodity is apartments. They don’t care what happens and who gets stuck, they have been making gobs of money and want more.
Now, this presents problems. Someone might question their model. So they have to come up with stories: “oh renters are rich now and demand craft beer taps beside the bocce ball court!” That means higher rents, so they can pay more and more for the land. “We have to build even bigger bocce ball courts to take tenants away from the apartments next door, yet even higher rents!” Etc.
The dead giveaway was when they started pushing this thing out until it wasn’t making money based on rents. Then it had become a pure speculative mania. Like those Laguna Beach shacks I posted about yesterday.
It truly is a mania. Like your post a couple of days ago about Prosper new house prices declining - but they sure haven’t stopped building. It will go and go and go until it falls off a very steep cliff. And people here are still totally in denial. I think maybe people realize subliminally, or suspect, that it really is an everything-bubble, and that many dominoes are going to go down all at once. So many people’s jobs are tied into this.
“So many people’s jobs are tied into this.”
Very much so. And not just those in the trades. Not hardly.
…. and a wise man once said….. “The real shame in the loss of mania and bubble jobs is that they were ever created in the first place.”
The real shame in the loss of mania and bubble jobs is that they were ever created in the first place
One of your few moments of brilliance. And I agree completely.
Exciting
Kenmore, WA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/kenmore-wa/market-trends/
Skilled Nursing Owner Defaults on $257 Million HCP Loan
Eye wonders if this smokin’ idea might bee a hit @ Humboldt State?
From the linked source:
https://seniorhousingnews.com/2018/01/05/inside-planned-highrise-ccrc-arizona-state-university/
Denver Has a Plan for Its Many Luxury Apartments: Housing Subsidies …
https://www.wsj.com/…/denver-has-a-plan-for-its-many-luxury-apartments-housing-subs...
1 day ago - Denver has a plan for its glut of sparkling new, high-end rental apartments with amenities like gyms, roof decks and sometimes even pet spas: It will use them to house teachers, medical technicians and others who can’t afford the city’s soaring rents. Under a program to be unveiled later this month, the city, …
There’s that word again - Glut. But what happened to the shortage? How could we possibly go from shortage to glut?
Maybe there was never a shortage to begin with?
During the boom, we were building 2MM housing units per year across the country. This was far too much.
We are now at 1.2MM. This is far too little.
Clearly there are places that are overbuilding (LA, SF, NYC as the poster children). Capital bought the “everyone wants to live in big cities” theory and money poured into major metros to build housing.
But, what about places that historically had more rapid growth with more affordable housing? Riverside County? San Bernardino County? Why are these places not building more affordable housing?
Clearly overbuilding is not everywhere…and broadly, we are not building enough, by any objective measure.
OK, keep beating that shortage drum. There’s more crow on the way.
‘There may be a silver lining on the horizon, with the report forecasting a continued drop for some of the Bay Area’s priciest locales. San Francisco, for example, saw an average $30 decrease in monthly rent through December. Meanwhile, in year over year estimates, Palo Alto’s average rent decreased 1.9 percent.’
‘Slowest rent growth over the last year
Berkeley - dropped 9.2 percent
Oakland - dropped 6.3 percent
Burlingame - dropped 4 percent
Palo Alto - dropped 3.9 percent
Alameda - dropped 2.3 percent’
Notice they can’t even bring themselves to call it more than slow rent growth. It fell you fools! And these aren’t effective rents, meaning it’s likely double or triple these declines.
Caw!
‘California made its first debut in the Top 5 most outbound states.’
https://www.northamerican.com/migration-map
‘we are not building enough, by any objective measure’
Ta-boom. Tell us another joke.
You can’t point to anything other than gluts in specific markets. This is a far cry from the massive supply that was EVERYWHERE during the last run up.
During 2005-2007:
Home prices going up everywhere by 10%+;
housing starts well over need at 2MM+ annually;
Option ARM financing everywhere;
people pulling $80B per quarter in equity refinances;
mortgage debt OVERALL rising by more than 10% per annum ($1T per year, on less than $10T total).
Currently:
Home prices going up by approximately 6%;
Housing starts below long term average at 1.2MM annually;
ARM financing back to being niche product;
Despite run up in prices, home equity withdrawal still below $20B per quarter;
Mortgage debt increasing by 4% per year…still nominally below the peak amount of debt in 2008.
Yes, home prices are high. I will not dispute that (and have not). Typically when they get this high, it signals the end of the cycle…however, the context in which there are high prices today, is much different than the context in 2005-2008…and even the context at prior cycle peaks (when housing starts were at a much higher level).
And so, how this cycle plays itself out will be different than prior cycles…unless housing starts increase meaningfully on a national basis (making this cycle start to look like prior cycles).
Allow me to clear the air my good friend.
-Current resale housing prices are 250% higher than long term trend and double construction cost (lot labor materials and profit)
-Current organic housing demand is at 1997 levels and falling
-Current housing inventory is 25 million excess empty housing units
-Current rental rates are half the total ownership cost on a $/sq ft basis
-Mortgage obligations met with HELOC proceeds and credit cards is rising rapidly
-Subprime lending is 90% of the market and has been since 1997.
-Foreclosure moratoriums in effect in all 50 states
RW,
I Looked up building permits (housing starts) and household formation stats for the last 3 years.
building permits (housing starts): 1.2 M
Household formations: 900 k
Am I right on those stats?
If I’m not overlooking anything that looks like 300k excess units per year.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/new_housing_permits_in_the_us
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_household_formation
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2016/beyond-bls/young-adults-and-trends-in-household-formation.htm
‘You can’t point to anything other than gluts in specific markets’
Well, they are gluts. What I can also point to is that I said they were going to be gluts back when almost everyone said they were never going to stop growing, primarily because that insanity was being tossed around. And this suggests I see these market more for what they really are than you and the multitude of “experts” who think like you.
Touting scarcity and urgency is the oldest con-man BS there is. And I’ll remind you - again - this line you keep repeating is EXACTLY what this industry of greedy bashtards was saying in 2005. Right before they lost their a$$ and scurried back in the hole they came from.
Before there were nail guns, electric saws, excavators, computers, humans never had a problem building shelter for themselves. Oh, but somehow now we can’t. Nancy Pelosi just won’t sign off on those building permits! Never mind San Francisco housing construction just hit a 72 year high! Boston - 60 year high. Never in history has so much been built in Texas. New York City has empty towers everywhere, same with Miami, London, Dubai and Lagos. Each was the hottest of the hot and the REIC sang this same song you do.
If Toronto can suddenly find itself in a glut after prices shot up 30% in one month last spring, maybe this is really just a mania. No never before shortage, no crazy new paradigm reality. Just a plain old bubble explains it best.
the.end.
If I’m not overlooking anything that looks like 300k excess units per year.
You are forgetting the tearing down of obsolete structures. We have ~130MM housing units that were built at various times over the prior 80+ years…many of these are torn down every year. A very large percentage of these homes are 50+ years old.
The more frequent estimate that I’ve seen is that approximately 400k homes nationally every year are removed from the existing base (fires, condemnation, tear-downs, etc.). And this number should go up, because if it doesn’t (ie. we are at a stable level of destruction), would imply an average life of a home at over 300 years.
And this suggests I see these market more for what they really are than you and the multitude of “experts” who think like you.
Nope. I saw these as local gluts forming as well (as did many experts–the NYC issues were known at least 2 years ago). Frankly, these locations had their development cycles lasted longer than they should because they were “primary” markets that continued to attract foreign capital.
I’ve stated again and again that the most dangerous markets are those where the investment thesis is “obvious”, as it tends to attract too much capital, and those markets tend to get overbuilt.
None of this changes the fact that these local gluts didn’t create an overall supply/demand imbalance.
$5,000 per month studios in SF have no impact at all on a family of 4 who is trying to find an affordable place to live in Redlands, CA. Zero.
Would I invest in housing in SF/LA/NYC? Nope…prices are too high, and too much supply was been added–and this was obvious starting years ago.
Now, would I invest in a relatively affordable housing project in a place where development has been much slower to recover? I’d at least consider it.
However, I’d much prefer to invest in a product type that is in need, but that the rent levels don’t justify new development (small-bay industrial comes to mind).
“If Toronto can suddenly find itself in a glut after prices shot up 30% in one month last spring, maybe this is really just a mania. No never before shortage, no crazy new paradigm reality. Just a plain old bubble explains it best.”
I agree with you. Home prices going up by 10%+ per year for many years when they are building at a pace of 2% of the existing base per year can ONLY be explained by a local market mania.
Likewise, home prices going up in the US by 10%+ per year when we are building 25% more than the long term average in the US can equally only be explained by a national mania (these were the conditions in 2005-2007).
However, when we are building 25% less than the long term average, 6% annual nominal price increases could easily be explained by lack of housing being developed.
If I’m right, we will see housing starts rise, and the pace of price increases will fall.
If we are in a national mania, home prices will rise faster as we build more.
During from 2005-2008, the US had vacancies increasing year over year for many years while at the same time, prices were raging. This is mania price behavior. Increased supply did not decrease price.
Post crash, we have had vacancies falling while prices were rising. AND in markets where we have built too much (vacancies rose), we had prices/rents fell pretty shortly thereafter. This is not mania price behavior. Increased supply DID decrease prices.
‘I saw these as local gluts forming as well’
You gotta link for that?
I think I just heard the “everybody knew it was a glut” thing.
BTW, this blog called the apartment bubble in fall 2014.
I used to have a link to where I could search for my old posts easily…but can’t find it…if you can provide that link, I’ll gladly show you old posts of mine.
CA’s foreclosure moratoriums holding back 4.4 million defaults should clear up your confusion.
October 10, 2013
“There are currently 432 homes in some form of foreclosure in Richmond, according to RealtyTrac. And of all the foreclosed properties in Contra Costa County, 13 percent are zombies. Over the past few years, banks have been dragging out the foreclosure process, allowing them to avoid becoming the owner of the property, and skirting their legal obligation to maintain foreclosed homes. In California, the average amount of time it takes banks to finalize foreclosures after mailing the initial public foreclosure notice has more than doubled since 2007 — from 154 days to 383 days — according to RealtyTrac. As a result, there were more than 29,000 zombie titles in California as of March.”
“A 2010 Federal Reserve paper noted that when banks stall foreclosures, they can ‘obtain whatever insurance or accounting benefit is available by documenting the loss,’ without having to maintain the vacant property. Also, keeping foreclosures off the books allows banks to borrow and lend more money, since foreclosures count as a liability against them.”
“Keeping homes out of foreclosure also boosts local property values because there are then fewer houses for sale on the market. The lack of inventory can cause a feeding frenzy among potential buyers who outbid each other for homes. ‘It’s part of the incredible manipulation of the market that we have right now,’ said Maeve Elise Brown, executive director of Housing and Economic Rights Advocates. ‘You have entities that are trying to show inventory … in drips and drops … because they want to artificially prop up prices.’”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=7984
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-10-10 13:50:41
…
And so specifically my concern is that there will be some markets with improved economic activity that is on the back of higher home prices, and that based on that alone, the Fed should dial back stimulus–for those markets, if they represented the whole of the US. However, they don’t represent the whole of the US, so if the average economic activity is still weak, the Fed will keep rates too low for too long for the earlier recovering markets, and there is a risk of rebubble in those places.
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=7984
I’ll gladly show you old posts of mine…
Just my opinion, but none of these old posts would read “this is insane”. More like short term business cycle detailed analysis stuff riding on the back of the biggest mania in the history of mankind.
“And so specifically my concern is that there will be some markets with improved economic activity that is on the back of higher home prices, and that based on that alone, the Fed should dial back stimulus–for those markets, if they represented the whole of the US. However, they don’t represent the whole of the US, so if the average economic activity is still weak, the Fed will keep rates too low for too long for the earlier recovering markets, and there is a risk of rebubble in those places.”
From Ben’s October 10 2013 Bits.
I probably didn’t use the word “insane”–I’m rarely that hyperbolic, but I have commented on home prices being too high in certain markets…often. And if people ask if they should buy, I’ve warned them off that too.
But let me ask you…are prices today as “insane” as they were in 2006? In some markets, yes.
However, not as broadly as in 2006, where they were crazy everywhere.
Comment by Rental Watch
2015-05-27 17:18:30
http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/qtr115/rvr115.png
http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/qtr115/currenthvspress.pdf
Vacancy rates are falling quickly across the US. There are regions where there is plenty of housing. However, there are regions where there is not enough housing to have a functioning market without substantial power being in the hands of landlords.
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9039
My perspective is that housing prices in general are many multiples of their natural level, a thing that has happened over 40 years. It never corrected after 2006, just a light stumble and then off again.
You talk smart but I think you find the flea remarkable and the rabid wolf of no interest. But then you do make your living trading in fleas.
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-10-10 09:49:05
“what are the chances that such ridiculous increases will hit the perfect spot and stop?”
Slim unless they start to slow significantly very soon. There are some signs that this is happening. If you look at CA markets by City per Zillow, you find that the 20%+ year on year increases have fallen to closer to 10% along the coasts (MtM in Sunnyvale was slightly negative last month!). However, the massive increases are still raging farther inland (which started sooner–in some places, 4% monthly.
All that said, if the Fed keeps rates too low for too long for places that were earlier in the recovery, we are at risk of a rebubble and recrash…although those risks are somewhat tempered by the fact that a pulse will not (yet) get you a mortgage.
My hope (and it’s a hope, bordering on expectation) is that we don’t repeat the massive bubble of 2005-2007, but end up with a more normal elongated cycle as we had in the 80’s and 90’s. However, in order to get there, we need to see home prices go up MUCH slower starting within the next 12 months.
For giggles, I took the median home price per square foot from Zillow in some inland locations where we own land, and essentially inflation adjusted land prices in earlier times. Long story short, we are within about 10-20% of more “normal” levels (post mid-90’s recovery, pre-bubble, early 2000’s).
I think it is highly unlikely that price increases slow soon enough to NOT overshoot these more “normal” levels, but again, my hope is that the overshooting is gradual, as opposed to a rocket ship like in 2005-2007.
————————-
Also from October 10, 2013.
At that point in time, Case Shiller was up about 14% year on year (October 2012 to October 2013). From October 2013 to October 2014, prices increased by 4.5%. From October 2014 to October 2015, they went up by 5.5%.
As predicted, home prices increases slowed considerably after this post…and we have proceeded to have a gradual overshooting of “normal”.
What has surprised me is that supply hasn’t picked up faster, which would have tempered home price increases. Instead, we are still outpacing inflation in the US by ~4% per year (vs. outpacing inflation by 10%+ per year during the bubble years).
Of note, where there HAS been significant supply increases, prices HAVE softened/declined.
Here you are downplaying the coming condo bust in Miami:
Comment by Rental Watch
2015-06-10 09:41:17
“The numbers that keep sticking in my mind were from the 2005-2006 era. At that point, there were 50k condos being built. Over the prior decade, there were only 10k built.
Puts the 26k in perspective…a big number.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9065
In 2015. Boy you were all over those gluts.
My perspective is that housing prices in general are many multiples of their natural level, a thing that has happened over 40 years
This perspective is not borne out by the data.
Shiller posts his data on his Yale website, and so you can see home prices on an inflation adjusted basis going back 100+ years.
Home prices were stable from the mid-50’s to the early 70’s at an index level of about 110. 1890 was at 100.
The TROUGH post crash reached about 125 (within about 15% of “normal”, and now we are well beyond a normal peak at 170.
Worth noting however (as I have noted over and over again)…Shiller uses the published CPI. HOWEVER, pre-Boskin Commission CPI is different than post-Boskin Commission CPI by about 0.5% per year…so you need to take care with data after 1995…as “inflation adjusted” data after this point means something different than before 1995.
In any event, even without consideration for the Boskin commission adjustments to CPI, while prices are at a high point…they are not “many multiples” over their natural level.
There’s nothing worse than revisionist history and outright lies. The same people who saw no bubble tell everybody at the end “I called it.”
Do you understand what I was saying?
I was saying that they typically built 1k condos per year in Miami…10k over the decade leading up to 2005.
And in 2005, there were 50k under construction….5 times one decade worth of construction happening all at once!
And in 2015, I noted that 26k being built was a big number for Miami…2.6 decades worth being built at once (a big number….a lot of construction).
Just because I didn’t say “glut” and chose the words “a big number” doesn’t mean I didn’t think they weren’t building too many condos in Miami at the time.
There’s nothing worse than revisionist history and outright lies. The same people who saw no bubble tell everybody at the end “I called it.”
That’s why going to my past posts is a wonderful thing…unless of course, you don’t understand that saying “a big number” means that 26k is a lot of condos for Miami to be building.
Comment by Rental Watch
2015-09-08 17:43:11
“Land prices are set by supply, demand, and expectation of home prices when you are going to be selling homes on that land. If you made more land available on which to build, home prices and land prices would be lower. Neither land nor housing are immune to supply and demand.
If lack of supply had nothing to do with high prices, then I would agree, you can’t build your way out of a bubble. But if lack of supply (as measured by vacancy rates, NOT listings) has anything to do with high prices, then building–all else equal–should alleviate high prices to some extent.
Consider rental vacancy rates in the Portland MSA (annual averages per the Census)
2005: 10%
2010: 4%
2015: 3%
Homeowner vacancy rates:
2005: 1.6%
2010: 3.2%
2015: 1%
Prices in 2005 were high despite there being relatively abundant rental properties available…clearly then lack of supply had less to do with the prices going up.
By 2010, people had lost their homes and move to rentals, etc., leading to higher homeowner vacancy rates and lower rental vacancy rates.
And now, both homeowner vacancy rates and rental vacancy rates are as low as they have been in 10 years.
You may disagree to the extent of the lack of supply, but clearly supply is as low as it has been in a decade. I’d like to compare these vacancy rates to other times, but the Census data only goes back to 2005–so that’s the best I can do.”
You know, I’ve been looking for over an hour and I can’t find you saying anything about a glut at all. REIC balderdash, yes, but no mention of any glut in the future.
You know, I’ve been looking for over an hour and I can’t find you saying anything about a glut at all. REIC balderdash, yes, but no mention of any glut in the future.
Did you not understand that I was comparing 26k units being built all at once in Miami to “normal” which was 10k over a decade, and commenting that 26k was “a big number” (a lot)?
Does anyone have a link to the website that allows you to search prior posts more easily than the main blog site?
You’ve been served now eat your crow and CraterTaters my friend….. eat your crow and CraterTaters.
No you were saying 50k was a lot. Now they have 20 years of inventory.
No…I was saying that 10k was a decade of supply….and that 50k was a hell of a lot at one time. And in that context 26k was also a big number.
I often go back and look at the Case-Shiller site for historical guide. I know there are people in my neck of the woods that are buying and selling houses all the time. On occasion I will get on Zillow and see what listings look like. Quite frequently, I think to myself, “Yeah, I would consider buying that property, but only at one half of what it is being listed for.” Sometimes I might consider it at a 40% discount if it is in really good shape. These are just thoughts I have, I don’t actually submit a low-ball offer that would never be accepted. Still, it’s sort of a mental exercise that I go through to see what I “think” the price should be at a gut level despite what it is actually listed for (or sold for to some poor indentured servant).
These are just random thoughts that I keep to myself, but I think there is madness in the air. I mean, I feel like the intrinsic value of many of the condos/townhouses/SFH that I see are worth way less to me than what someone is paying for it. In a way, current prices do feel a little bit like BitCoin prices. The prices are supported because people think that other people are going to want to pay those prices for it. The Case Shiller index of 170 would imply housing overvalued at 70% on average, and more so in overheated areas. The demographics of how quickly the baby boomers start to leave this earth and what happens with immigration could cause a reversion to the mean that will be interesting to watch. Regardless of whether there is a sharp correction of a “soft landing”, there is no way I am going to buy someone boomers overpriced tacky McMansion. Just not going to happen.
I think I just heard the “everybody knew it was a glut” thing.
That’s a marker right there.
Berkeley had a 9.2% drop in rents at the height of an economic boom?
Guess what:
Unless this time is different, then we are already on the glide path to the next recession, as history shows that unemployment rates can’t last for long at current rock bottom levels before rocketing up again. When this happens, you can bet your bottom dollar that much larger rent decreases will follow. Investors are advised to dump their holdings now, or look forward to large future losses accompanied by heaping helpings of crow.
Shiller posts his data on his Yale website…
No doubt. There are several very good reasons you can gaze at that and never see the biggest bubble in history.
Omphaloskepsis.
If you look at the house my grandfather built when he was a pup (and I am now a grandfather) it probably has followed Shiller. It’s quite obsolete and only 1000 ft2. He paid cash to have it built, two years wages cash. The neighbor’s houses have been torn down and replaced with 3500 ft2 monstrosities with three garages and a mortgage 5 or 10 times family income. Mortgages that ordinary people cannot pay off in a lifetime with any reasonable standard of living.
What does Shiller say about that?
“Never in history has so much been built in Texas. New York City has empty towers everywhere, same with Miami, London, Dubai and Lagos. Each was the hottest of the hot and the REIC sang this same song you do.”
What RW and other REIC boosters conveniently ignore is how much of the recent housing purchases have been made by investors trying to achieve short term speculative gains, rather than traditional owner occupants who need a place to live in. Bernanke rang the dinner bell, and Pavlov’s dogs salivated profusely over their prospective speculative gains before going all in. I haven’t checked lately, but have to guess the portion of U.S. residential real estate currently owned by investors is at or near a historic high.
The gains are over now, and there is no reason for specuvestors to hang on to real estate they only bought for the short-term appreciation. When the investors dump their holdings, the same kind of glut that spontaneously materialized in Toronto may suddenly appear in West Coast bubble zones.
https://www.zumper.com/blog/2017/12/san-francisco-bay-area-metro-report-december-2017/
The full list and all the data.
Why are these places not building more affordable housing
Is this a trick question? If you’re a developer, there’s more profit in collecting el luxo rent in 90% of your units than collecting “poors” rent in 100% of your units. If 90% isn’t enough luxo tenants for you to pencil out, no worries. You can go cry to the city government, like they did in Denver, and the bleeding heart libs will install “poors” into your vacant units and pony up the rent difference themselves. So, the “poors” get to crow about granite countertops, you get to collect luxo rent even if your some of your tenants aren’t luxo, and the city gets to virtue signal. Everybody wins - except for the taxpaying schlubs who are languishing away in Grade B while paying for the rent subsidies out of their taxes.
Donk…. Owners collect rent, not “developers”.
Developers of single family homes make money by selling volume. In that regard, they love selling lots of small, inexpensive homes–that is where the demand is, that is where the volume is.
The only reasonable answer that I have found to “why aren’t they building more ’starter’ homes” is that it simply doesn’t “pencil” to do so.
“Developers” don’t do anything but add a layer of cost and pass brown envelopes. Nobody needs a developer to construct a house or housing development.
Pencil that my good friend.
“Lawsuit: Realtor, Developer Conspired to Inflate Home Prices”
http://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/washington/articles/2018-01-05/lawsuit-realtor-developer-conspired-to-inflate-home-prices
But, what about places that historically had more rapid growth with more affordable housing? Riverside County? San Bernardino County? Why are these places not building more affordable housing?
Who cares?
People who want an affordable place to live in Riverside/SB County care.
These days in California home buyers want appreciation not affordable housing, and if it goes wrong just toss in the keys… it’s a walk-away state.
I’ve been on the same site in East Denver since June. We were supposed to be done by February but there’s no way that’s happening.
And for all you frozen East Coasters, it’s 68 and sunny here today, nice day to be working on the pool deck
http://www.picpaste.com/20180109_101357.jpg
From the pic, it looks like your new building will be blocked on two sides by two other hi-rises.* You may as well live in Hong Kong. Do these annoying idiot Millenials really think that it’s worth living the Hong Kong life just to be able to walk home from the bars?
—————-
*actually looking at the evil shadow and balcony in the upper right,
I think you’re surrounded on three sides.(!!?) Is this even legal?
The building is shaped like a U with the open end on the south. C wing (east) only goes up 7 levels. B wing (north) and A wing (west) go up 9 levels. The pool is on level 2, above the future avacado toastery on ground level.
There will be two more “luxury” buildings identical to this one on site, and an office tower and hotel, and will incorporate the existing 5 level pedestrian bridge from the old University of Colorado Medical School that spans 9th Avenue.
The boss of the masonry crew seen in pic is named Chewy. Yes, Chewy.
All the “luxury buildings” don’t bother to put their pool on the roof where one might enjoy it. Instead it gets stuck down in the middle of the towers where the sun only eeks through maybe a few hours a day.
Then, many of the “amenities” don’t work half the time - even on brand new construction.
I know because I frequently visit friends of mine that live in these “luxe” towers.
Also, the neighbors in the “affordable units” run the building down within a couple of years. Then my friends bail, go to the next new building and so on and so forth.
$3000 a month for shoebox 1 bedroom apartment in a “luxury” tower with a no-sun pool and questionable neighbors. No thanks.
There are some advantages to living on a boat. The bar is on the boat and so can your friends be if you need socialization. There is almost always a panoramic view. If you want a swim just step off the back porch. And it is pretty close to free compared to $3000/mo.
stuck down in the middle of the towers
…Where sunbathers can be glared at by a thousand people in about 600 apartment units. Including those in the affordable units. Maybe it’s better that they are in the deep shade.
Re the pool in the middle of the building:
The other issue is all the noise generated by the people at the pool. It all echoes upwards to all those apartments whose windows front on it. Fun times.
future avacado toastery
Nice.
All the “luxury buildings” don’t bother to put their pool on the roof where one might enjoy it. Instead it gets stuck down in the middle of the towers where the sun only eeks through maybe a few hours a day.
I doubt this is the reason in Denver but it’s interesting that Chinese would rather the pool be in the shade. They’d rather be white than warm. At least the women anyway.
It’s “white privilege” - in many cultures (including Chinese), lighter skin is considered prettier.
Pedestrian bridge over 9th Avenue seen from southeast corner of level 2:
http://www.picpaste.com/20180109_140547.jpg
Built in the 60s/70s?
“Denver Has a Plan for Its Many Luxury Apartments: Housing Subsidies”
Of course! The plan has ALWAYS been to soak taxpayers.
Socialized housing, run by the federal government.
Because everyone has a right to free housing. Just like free medical care.
I don’t object too terribly to free housing run by the federal government, to get the homeless off the streets. However, that housing better be far away from the cities, and it better be Grade B or C. But luxury units downtown? No effin’ way.
(I don’t see an issue with some subsidizing of lower-pay workers who work in the city. However, they should be required to submit a statement every 3 months proving that they are working in order to get the subsidy.)
We are in total DISagreement on this, for a variety of reasons.
No problem, I understand that this is my liberal side showing through. We can discuss if Ben allows.
It will use them to house teachers, medical technicians and others who can’t afford the city’s soaring rents.
I had predicted section 8. But I suppose we could always define another special class who “deserves” high end housing for less money and give it to them in order to maintain the illusion of value and prop up prices.
Mountain View, CA Rental Rates Crater 9% YOY As Bay Area Speculators Slash Prices
https://www.zillow.com/mountain-view-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on rental chart
Prices arent the only things being slashed in this formerly first world country:
Grisly murder of a lesbian couple found ‘with their throats slashed’ alongside their two children
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5218715/Family-four-murdered-New-York-identified.html
They dont show the pictures of the killers, but theyre also dindus and look like they have downs.
How come I have to go to newspapers outside of the country to find out whats really going on in this country? The (((media owners))) in this country should be so proud that nothing can penetrate their narrative.
plenty of domestic articles:
https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/heinous-atrocity-lesbian-couple-two-kids-murdered-new-york-basement-n833166
http://www.nydailynews.com/newswires/new-york/names-released-2-women-2-children-found-slain-home-article-1.3724018
Lol! I dont see any pictures of the perps, just pictures of the cops walking around in the snow. Where are the pics - maybe they’re invisible? Theyre awfully hard to find - maybe you can track them down like a good “patriot”. Even the article I linked, like many others, have no pics - but there was an article thats since probably been pulled that showed them in handcuffs. Must maintain the (((narrative))).
Because perhaps the perps are of foreign origin?
Me thinks if the perps were white males, we’d have heard all about it. And rather loudly.
But who knows.
The articles say that there haven’t been any arrests yet. That would have to be the reason that there are no photographs of the murderers. I’m not sure why you’re dying to see their faces. You must maintain a scrapbook or something. Now that you know that the killers are still at large, you can and fly over to Troy, NY (a small city you’ve probably never heard of previously) and volunteer to help the cops with their investigation.
(((Bob Mercer)))?
Legal weed turned Colorado into an even worse liberal hellhole then the California exodus already had. Street-sh*tting is legal now, everything is more expensive and the homeless population is skyrocketing.
Thank you liberal idiots for bringing your problems with you, as you tend to do everywhere.
Downtown Denver is literally a toilet.
Eye hear Joe is wanting some consultant work whilst retired …
“He recalls a childhood trip to the Pittsburgh Zoo, where a sign near the primate house declared, “Around this corner is the most dangerous animal on Earth”; turning a corner Kenda found himself staring into a mirror”
+1 Hwy.
Explain to me how legalized marijuana and public defecation could lead to higher prices. Or are these the kind of mental leaps only Trump supporters can understand?
I build grow-ops for out of state used house buyers with deep pockets who buy houses in cash. $60,000 median income households do not, and can not, buy houses in Denver.
Denver is a low wage flyover job market.
Denver homeless pay nothing for our 300+ days of annual sunshine.
And yes, the downtown 16th Street Mall smells like urine
Explain to me how my comment AT ALL suggested causation between legalized marijuana and public defecation leading to higher prices.
Because on the face of it that seems like the kind of mental leap only a typical demoRAT autist would make.
Reading comprehension is not your strong suit, doofus.
Sorry, I thought the words you typed actually had some kind of logical relationship with reality. My bad.
Translated from demoRAT autist to English:
“I’m an idiot and have no response to what you said about my poor reading comprehension”
Got it. Thanks for playing.
$306,000,000,000 of natural disaster damage in USA in 2017:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/08/us-bill-natural-disasters-cleanup-record-climate-change
Warmists gonna warm.
It occurs to me that a housing bubble also inflates those numbers…
California is number one in poverty, and number one in disasters:
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-rainfall-mudflow-20180109-story.html
An uninhabitable desert that’s gonna run out of drinking water when we dam the Colorado River at the state line
“$306bn in one year: US bill for natural disasters smashes record”
So does the bill for a new pickup truck.
Vashon, WA Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY On Ballooning Housing Inventory
https://www.zillow.com/vashon-wa/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve should keep interest rates low so that wage gains accelerate and inflation rises, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday.”
Wages gains uh huh
Don’t be a wage donkey buy assets working is so 20th century
They’ve been talking about wage inflation for almost 10 years. If it hasn’t happened by now, with the 24/7 liquidity firehose blowing bubbles in asset prices the globe over (and turning things into speculative assets that never used to be), it’s just not gonna happen.
they will print as much as it takes to keep their bond portfolio from any losses. That is till they mature and then the treasury has to find some buyers for some new bonds to pay those off.
The fed is the buyer. Duh.
“Credit Card Debt Hits New Record, Raising Warning Sign”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/01/08/credit-card-debt-hits-new-record-raising-warning-sign/1014921001/
This is what happens when everyone makes their mortgage payment with plastic.
A nation of broke @ss loosers.
1. Dumb ‘em down.
2. Profit.
“It’s really important that folks knock down that credit card debt when times are good.”
ROTFLMFAO!
The next bubble: Another crude oil moonshot.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
When I look around and ponder the state of eCONomic affairs, I have come to my own personal conclusion that things are much, much worse than 2007.
Not only have house prices eclipsed those levels, but the stock market is almost double, new and used automobile prices are nothing short of stupid, as are all durable goods prices, but we also have this thing called a cryptocurrency bubble which defies description. It’s truly bizarroworld, and I can’t see it ending well. Something’s gotta give.
your right its all been papered over with trillions.
I wish it would hurry up and give already. The con is going to outlast my savings.
I am pretty sure I won’t outlast my savings unless a pretty girl gets her hands on my wallet. I do hope to live to see the biggest con game in history revert to something more normal.
Parker, CO Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY On Skyrocketing Housing Inventory
https://www.movoto.com/parker-co/market-trends/
Salon dot com wets the bed on El Salvador FSA:
https://www.salon.com/2018/01/09/with-salvador-decision-trumps-immigration-policy-veers-into-white-nationalism/
Got MS-13? LOLZ
The New Yorker piles on with a tear-jerker narrative:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/01/15/when-deportation-is-a-death-sentence
Funny how no other country has offered to take them.
including…. Mejico…
… or Canada.
Congratulations to the Alabama Crimson Tide on their Second Place Trophy
Alabama Crimson Tide Schedule - 2017
13-1
Sat, Nov 25 @ #6 Auburn
L26-14
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/333/alabama-crimson-tide
UCF Knights Schedule - 2017
13-0
Mon, Jan 1 #7 Auburn*
W34-27
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/2116/ucf-knights
+1
UCF = true national championships.
I have real issues with the racket that is college football. This is probably why I haven’t seen a game in several years. I remember when the Utes went undefeated in 2008 and beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Florida was voted the national champ, but the Utes were the only undefeated team of the season. This is just further evidence that the 4-team playoffs is more of a coronation than a true playoff. Expand it to 8 and then we’ll see who is really left standing.
So this is the resume of a national champion?
Disclaimer - daughter goes to Bama but I’m a Buckeye first.
The playoffs haven’t t solved anything, still a subjective guess as to who is on top. Maybe going to 8 will help? But as my dad would say - “Win, lose, or national champs - still gotta drag my @ss into work, so what does it really matter?”.
— UCF strength of schedule
“The Knights beat only one team ranked in the top 30 nationally in the Sagarin ratings’ analytics: Auburn. ’Bama beat four, including three (Clemson, LSU and Florida State) by double digits. Georgia’s resume had three top-10 wins plus No. 17 Mississippi State.
UCF’s average opponent was ranked No. 81 by Sagarin. That’s significantly worse than Georgia (50) and ’Bama (58).”
http://www.tampabay.com/sports/college/Like-it-or-not-strength-of-schedule-an-issue-for-Group-of-Five-teams_164131647
Like I said, it’s a racket. The big name schools schedule and play themselves. The only outsiders that have been remotely able to crack open the racket have been Boise State and TCU. Pre-season rankings ensure that the 1 or 2 loss teams never fall too far out of the rankings.
Here are your Division I-A Football Standings. They are all Division I-A Football teams.
NCAA FBS (Division I-A) Football Standings
http://www.espn.com/college-football/standings
” UCF strength of schedule”
UCF played a Division I-A Football schedule, they won 13 games and they lost 0 games.
One of the teams UCF defeated beat both Alabama and Georgia.
That is the resume of a national champion.
UCF did not play a NCAA FCS (Division I-AA) schedule.
If you and the “committee” want to go through the NCAA FBS (Division I-A) and throw teams out for next year be my guest.
Do that and you will have the 4 conferences “worthy”of a playoff team that you want.
Until then…
Congratulations to the Alabama Crimson Tide on their Second Place Trophy
Exactly. Absent a true 8 team play-off, the limited number of games in a season effectively means that every regular season game is effectively part of the playoffs. Auburn beating Alabama was essentially a playoff loss.
They did a nice job of focusing in on the 7 black people in attendance but that as one big crowd of white privileged betters clapping for Oprah.
Oprah Winfrey gets a Standing ovation Emmys 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7QfJiWU_rM
#MuhNarrative
Hangman’s Noose chart pattern noted:
https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/price
looking like titsupcoin.
Time to cash all of your home equity and BUY THE DIP!
The dotted line awaits.
I will relish the time when these cryptos crater. I’d find a tulip bubble less annoying. At least I can enjoy a mutated tulip outside my window.
Bitcoin!
Kodak has joined the vast multitude of ignorant pukes who have lost their minds.
“Kodak soars on KodakCoin and Bitcoin mining plans”
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-42630136
Does this mean that we will soon be seeing:
IBMCoin
HPCoin
MicrosoftCoin
IntelCoin (just watch out for the kernel)
OracleCoin
GoogleCoin
AmazonCoin
FakebookCoin
etc?
Cryptocurrencies make as much sense as EDM and watching other people play video games.
Just browsing some local listings on Zillow in the Tampa Bay area. All of a sudden it dawns on me: not only is there a ton of overpriced crap out there, but so much of it is just plain fugly. Like really scary bad fugly. I dunno how people can take living in it.
but so much of it is just plain fugly. Like really scary bad fugly. I dunno how people can take living in it.
Hip Hop music is apparently our nation’s most popular genre now. I guess people like ugly.
Yeah. I bet 2-Fruit was curled up in the fetal position last night listening to the half time show. LOL
Lol yourself mister non sequitur.
The Coachella music festival lineup was announced last week I think - virtually all (c)rap. Funny to read the comments - one said most of the “performers” neither sing nor play an instrument. Majority consensus was that this festival had deteriorated to a pointless, overpriced marketing assault compared to its formative years. Gonna be hard to sustain as there’s no longer much music and most of the dindus are priced out. Just another victim of the culture war perpetrated by our (((betters))) I guess, like TV, movies, magazines and newspapers.
Heh the MTV effect.
Garth Brooks lip sync’d at the CMAs this year. He also won entertainer of the year I believe.
De gustibus non est disputandum. My critical theory professor of Spanish literature used to repeat that phrase ad nauseam. We read many of the important works of Borges, Paz, Neruda, Marques, etc. We watched some of the most celebrated and curated foreign films. But sometimes you just want to watch a movie like Fight Club.
I was raised on a diet of old school hip hop/rap. It’s what I love and relate to. I’m an (old) millennial and I’m white. I used to live in an urban area, but now it’s a semi-rural area where the few radio stations we have are country music. People love it. Everyone here has huge trucks, some of them lifted. I can’t relate really to the culture, but that is their taste and it’s no better or worse than what I feel most at home with. You can’t argue taste, whether it is ska, metal, punk, rap, country, jazz, etc. People just have their tastes and it’s what suites them. If we all wanted highbrow music, we’d probably just listen to opera and classical music and read Shakespeare.
What I find hilarious is that SJW lefties love misogynistic hip hop. I guess some animals are indeed more equal than others.
Colorado - kinda like feminists that embrace Islam
NSFW
2009 Sam Kinison on rap
“because they don’t play any instruments”
True. I do the same and can’t find much if anything that will pencil out from a rental perspective. Demand is still high in in the Tampa area.
Portland(Roseway), OR Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/roseway-portland-or/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
Looks like Trump caved on DACA as I thought he would.
A bill of love? lol
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/368107-trump-daca-solution-should-be-a-bill-of-love
I don’t really care if they stay so long as they never (and I mean ever) get to be US citizens and never (and I mean ever) get to vote.
And I still want the wall, and end to chain migration, and an end to birthright citizenship.
I don’t really care if they stay so long as they never (and I mean ever) get to be US citizens and never (and I mean ever) get to vote.
strange how the ‘vote issue’ is almost never brought up, anywhere. not even on so-called ‘conservative’ media.
nearly all treat the issue as a foregone conclusion that the freshly minted legals will automatically have the right to vote.
“nearly all treat the issue as a foregone conclusion that the freshly minted legals will automatically have the right to vote.”
Everyone knows that democrats buy votes with social benefits.
I think Trump is going to cave on chain migration too. They are looking at what a “family” is. I give it 95/5 that “family” includes the parents.
Which really bothers me. I — along with my entire high school — left home at age 18 to make our own way. Every other culture, it seems, cries out for mommy. Great. You can do that over Facetime.
“No one could have seen this coming.”
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/white-house-trump-daca-dreamers_us_5a53e676e4b0efe47ebbe695?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he is open to a deal that would pair protections for undocumented young people with border security, and would be willing to address “comprehensive immigration reform” later.
Jeebus, had Shreik won we’d have full amnesty by now.
Isn’t her name Screech? (Not to suggest that Shreik is a poor alternative…)
“She shouts…”
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CzPwHm6RCfA
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/baby-bust-feds-raid-california-maternity-hotels/ar-BBIb2fh?li=BBnb4R7
Southern California apartment complexes that doubled as “maternity hotels” for Chinese women who want made-in-America babies were raided early Tuesday, capping an unprecedented federal sting operation, officials said.
The organizers who allegedly ran the Carlyle site, Chao Chen and Dong Li, used a website to drum up business, touting the benefits of a child with U.S. citizenship: 13 years of free education, low-cost college financial aid, less pollution, and a path for the entire family to emigrate when the child becomes an adult.
Clients were counseled on what lies to tell to obtain a tourist visa; how to fly through Hawaii, Las Vegas or Korea to avoid suspicious immigration officers at Los Angeles International Airport; and how to disguise their pregnancy in transit, according to search warrant affidavit unsealed Tuesday.
They were funneled to several Orange County hospitals to deliver, but they didn’t pay full price — approximately $25,000 — for medical services, officials said. Instead, they got reduced rates for the indigent, ranging from nothing to $4,000, the court papers say.
This entire article is really worth reading. It’s sickening. It was hard just to pick a few quotes, as I wanted to post the whole thing.
There is so much immigration fraud in this country. And it ties in to other things like real estate and medical care. Trump may say what he likes to appease certain people for a time, but he knows exactly what’s up. It’s not going to end all at once.
Why go to California when you can go to Saipan without a visa:
They are using a 2009 regulation which allows pregnant Russians and Chinese to fly into the island of Saipan without a visa. In the rest of the United States, visitors must get a visa which can be revoked by border officials who watch for the arrival of pregnant foreigners who intend to birth their children in the United States.
Foreigners who give birth on U.S. soil grab birth-citizenship for their children. That federal giveaway exists because of the legally questionable practice of providing citizenship to everyone born on U.S. soil, even if both parents are illegal immigrants, tourists or other visitors. The giveaway allows Chinese and other entrepreneurs to create a semi-hidden “birth-tourism” industry to bring many pregnant foreigners into the United States.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/12/21/wsj-visa-loophole-allows-birth-tourism-industry-in-saipan/
First the fires, now the mudslides. Why is it again that everyone wants to live in California?
Why do you live there?
I bailed out 20 years ago.
I have figured out how to cope with the parts I dislike and enjoy what I like.
“It is generally accepted that the mediterranean climate occurs in southern and southwestern Australia, central Chile, coastal California, the Western Cape of South Africa and around the Mediterranean Basin. The largest area with a mediterranean climate is the Mediterranean Basin, which has given the climate its name, although stretches of the Mediterranean coast (in Egypt, Libya and part of Tunisia) are too dry to be thus classified. More than half of the total mediterranean-climate regions on earth occur on the Mediterranean Sea.”
get out
“It is generally accepted that the Mediterranean climate occurs in southern and southwestern Australia, central Chile, coastal California, the Western Cape of South Africa and around the Mediterranean Basin.
And always next to a desert , sometimes a really big desert
there might not be much time left to get out of bitcoin and other cryptos.
also, microsoft recently stopped accepting bitcoin transactions, citing high volatility as the reason.
I am a crypto miner now.
Whatever you are Poet, we know it is not what you say you are.
The boat is just a fantasy?
If one day a poster claims to be one thing, the next day something else and so on, you think the boat is a fantasy?
https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4762/25816205258_8307fbd3f4_o.jpg