Thinking There’s A New Market Dynamic
A report from the Sauk Prairie in Wisconsin. “Kirkland Kettleson, Realtor/Broker with Century 21 in Wisconsin Dells, said 2017 was a sellers’ market and 2018 should be the same. ‘If you were selling a home (in 2017), you were able to get top dollar and have your home sell in a very short time,’ Kettleson said. ‘Because inventory was low, there were a lot of multiple-offer situations and bidding wars. It used to be that new homebuyers spent an average of $150,000 on their first homes. Now a lot are spending upwards of $250,000 because it’s been hard to get what they want.’”
“Prairie du Sac Village Administrator Alan Wildman said new development is happening much slower than it has in the past, mainly due to the high cost of materials, lack of workforce and high cost of land. ‘The question now is the cost,’ Wildman said. ‘There is land available, but the prices are a challenge for developers. It becomes a question of at what point can residents in our area still afford the price of a new home?’”
“In Sauk City, the problem is also availability of land. ‘Development has been fairly slow because we are landlocked,’ Sauk City Village Board President James Anderson said.”
The Washington Post. “From the perspective of a real estate investor, I continue to grow ever more concerned about the long-term viability of the Washington-area housing market. How much higher can housing prices go? The median home price is equal to more than seven and a half years of income for the median household. Experts used to recommend that you spend no more than two and a half times your annual income on your home purchase.”
“Granted, it may not be the perfect measure, but how many times have you asked or have you heard someone else ask: ‘Who can afford these houses?’ It sure feels like homes are becoming unaffordable, especially for that critical middle-market buyer. The problem with housing prices, or really any kind of overvalued asset, is that the run always seems to last longer than mathematically justifiable. They persist until people are fooled into thinking there’s a new market dynamic.”
“Another red flag for this market: Private money is flowing freely again. The lenders are coming out again in force. Every bubble market I’ve witnessed comes with a sense that anyone can make money in the market. Remember the stock market of the late 1990s? Remember how everyone was a trader? New flippers and landlords are joining the market at an incredible rate.”
From Reston Now in Virginia. “It was an interesting year in Reston real estate. Overall more than 1200 properties traded hands accounting for more than $572M in volume. These numbers sound great but they represent a third straight year of declines in average home prices. While home prices were somewhat flat, demand was strong and housing inventory was low, an equation which would typically trend towards a Seller’s Market.”
“However, intense price sensitivity kept the market fairly balanced with well-informed buyers not being willing to pay more just because there were so few. The attitude seemed to be, ‘if not this one, I’ll get the next one.’ Given that prices haven’t been moving much it’s up to sellers to create motivation in the buyers by presenting the very best option possible in the price category in which they’re competing.”
From Fauquier Now in Virginia. “A four-bedroom home on 50 acres near Hume sold last week for $1.12 million. Built in 2005, the Keyser Road home features five full bathrooms, two half-baths, a large deck, formal gardens, fenced pastures and a barn. The property went on the market in April 2014 with an asking price of $1.35 million, according to Zillow.”
“The Marshall District sale tops the latest list of Fauquier property transfers. However, a Scott District property, valued at more than $4 million, went into foreclosure last week.”
The Herald Tribune in Florida. “For the second straight month, more Southwest Florida homeowners struggled to pay their mortgages on time. The jump in the mortgage delinquency rate was not an omen of new weakness in the housing market but the temporary effects of Hurricane Irma, analysts say.”
“In the Sarasota-Manatee region, 6.3 percent of mortgages were at least 30 days overdue in October, up from 4.9 percent in September and from 4.2 percent one year earlier, data provider CoreLogic said. Charlotte County posted a 6.5 percent mortgage delinquency rate, higher than the 4.9 percent the month before and 4.1 percent last year.”
“Wth the new spike in late payments, Charlotte ranked 97th and Sarasota-Manatee 104th for delinquency rates among the 381 U.S. metro areas studied by CoreLogic. That marks a big jump from the 204th and 205th rankings in September. Statewide, the 30-day delinquent rate surged to 9.7 percent in October, the highest rate in the nation. It was 7.5 percent in September and 6.4 percent a year ago.”
“Early stage delinquencies had ticked up nationwide in September, reflecting the effects of the hurricanes in Florida, Texas and Puerto Rico, but that effect has faded, said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. ‘While the national impact is waning, the local impact remains,’ he said. ‘Some Florida markets continue to see increases in early stage delinquency transition rates in October, reaching 5 percent, on average, in Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Naples and Cape Coral.’”
From AM New York. “New York City homeowners received a total of 12,072 lis pendens notices — filings that begin the foreclosure process — in 2017, which is a 4 percent drop from 2016, a new report shows. Still, the analysis released Tuesday by PropertyShark, a real estate analytics company, noted that the number of homes scheduled for an auction — 3,306 — increased 58 percent from 2016 to 2017.”
“‘The foreclosure auction is at the end of the very long period of the foreclosure process, so these have been in foreclosure and there has been some modicum of trying to get them out…,’ said Susan Ifill, chief executive officer for the Neighborhood Housing Services of New York City, which helps residents buy, maintain and stay in their homes. ‘So we don’t consider those new.’”
“Ifill said many banks and lending institutions are just getting around to foreclosing on homes, where homeowners may have been struggling for some time. ‘The lender wasn’t actually moving the case to completion because they weren’t really set up or did not want to deal with acquiring large amounts of foreclosed homes all at once. Now that property values have increased so much in New York City in pretty much every neighborhood, you’re starting to see an increased willingness to take on some of these properties,’ said Caroline Nagy, deputy director for policy and research at the Center for NYC Neighborhoods, which does mortgage prevention work.”
“PropertyShark noted that Staten Island had 428 first-time foreclosure auctions scheduled in 2017, which was a 134 percent increase from 2016. Ifill hypothesized that the many residents in the borough were dealing with complications stemming from superstorm Sandy in 2012. The number of new foreclosure auctions in Brooklyn in 2017 hit 827, nearly double what it was in 2016, according to PropertyShark. And the number of auctions in Queens rose 40 percent, with the Bronx seeing a 44 percent increase.”
“
‘It used to be that new homebuyers spent an average of $150,000 on their first homes. Now a lot are spending upwards of $250,000 because it’s been hard to get what they want.’
‘The question now is the cost,’ Wildman said. ‘There is land available, but the prices are a challenge for developers. It becomes a question of at what point can residents in our area still afford the price of a new home?’
‘In Sauk City, the problem is also availability of land. ‘Development has been fairly slow because we are landlocked,’ Sauk City Village Board President James Anderson said.’
Everyone knew Sauk City was landlocked. Multiple offers, bidding wars. There’s a photo of this landlocked paradise at the link. Looks kinda nippy.
Yes, running out of land in rural Wisconsin. And those prices. Maybe people think Amazon is going to choose Sauk City for its second headquarters.
With his comment, I thought Mr. Anderson was a real estate salesman, but according to LinkedIn, he’s a welder.
Funny how all the chatter about Amazon’s 2nd HQ has gone silent. You’d think Bezos would have made a choice by now. Which reminds me, Blue Origen has yet to put a payload in orbit. Also, SpaceX botched a recent launch for a top secret .gov payload. ULA and Arianespace must be smiling, if not laughing their heads off.
You are deceived; that payload is up there and now doing it’s super-secret mission as I type this. The idea was to make everybody think that it’s not there. Musk is the perfect guy to do this, as he is another globalist pawn.
Musk is the perfect guy to do this, as he is another globalist pawn.
true, he’s a leftist that has most people believing he’s conservative kinda guy.
i had a big argument with a conservative that lasted years, who swore musk wasn’t a leftist. about 6 months ago he sheepishly admitted that musk was indeed a leftist. after paying closer attention, he learned the truth.
If it made it into orbit, I’m sure the Russians and Chinese know. Why have a false press release?
Maybe to fool other countries, such as North Korea (but China would probably tell them anyways).
Exactly, they aren’t fooling the intended audience, so why bother?
Comments to the Reston article:
Mike M • 28 minutes ago
Metro has boosted the value of our homes! Not. This was actually an argument prospectively. Now we know it was false. We should have known from historical cases in the region. All of the overdevelopment that “makes sense because of Metro” only exacerbates the home value problem. Then there is the bubble in housing values that was the norm around these parts for a long time even through the national bubble pop. You know you have it when you see how ridiculous are values compared to income median. People have stretched themselves to the hilt and beyond to get into high end housing. Now they might be smartening up. I am just glad I like my home and my neighborhood. It’s not a high growth asset. It’s home.”
“40yearsinreston • 16 hours ago
The glut of ‘iconic’ high rise luxury apartments is killing property values”
OK Reston dude, but Rental Watch predicted this glut years and years ago. You should have listened to him long ago as he preached restraint and caution.
Interesting that the WashPost think prices are too high. The graphic from the article posted blow shows that the DC area is not quite up to 2006 peak prices. I think what’s hurting them is the low inventory of middle class housing, $350K or less. It sound like a lot, but for two spouses making $60K, that’s achievable.
Donk….
Inventory is inventory irrespective of how someone gambled during design. And a $60k/yr salary on a $350k house is triple the long term metric of 2x annual salary, thus requiring a subprime mortgage.
Two spouses making $60K each. $120K household income –> $360K house.
The 2x metric is predicated on much higher interest rates. Lower interest rates allow 3x income. For example, if interest rates increased from 4% to 7%, the price of my house would have to drop by 1/3 (from 3x to 2x income), and I would have the SAME PITI each month.
Problem is US household income is $60k. The 2x metric held irrespective of interest rates.
And the article is for the DC area, you know, where people are awash in Yellen-back gov cash? It’s different here.
More DebtDonkeys in DC? Very possible.
Anecdotally, I located a former co-worker on Facebook earlier this week, and scanned her recent posts. I was dismayed to read that she had returned from one of these bogus free real estate investment seminars “valued at $2,500,” and wanted to network with others who had attended.
“… free real estate seminars …”
Bahahahaha … often the most expensive seminars you will ever attend in your life are the ones offered to you for free.
You get the printer for free; it’s the cost of the ink that will hose you!
Isn’t that the truth. Don’t know if this still is the case, but a few years ago I could buy a decent printer for the cost of four or five ink cartridges.
I’ll never again in my life buy an HP printer. SCAM. I do like my HP laptop, though.
Inkjets of any brand are money pits. If you need a printer, get a laser.
I just bought a new-in-box business-grade Dell duplexing color laser printer from our state surplus sale for half the cost of what all four toner cartridges (OEM) total up to. Supposedly I’m good for 4-5K pages, depending upon how much color is on each page.
Fingers crossed, I won’t have to buy toner for several years.
The other egregious printer movement is not allowing you to print if ANY of the cartridges is out, even if you just need black text printed. Found that out the hard way…and of course well beyond the return period. And yes, it is HP.
They all do that now, lasers included. At least with the lasers you have separate CMYK cartridges and not those wretched CMY ink cartridges.
As for not buying toner for several years, we also have one of those Dell color lasers. Our toner seems to last for a year and it is used moderately. There are third party cartridge sets that go for about $30 for the set.
‘the temporary effects of Hurricane Irma, analysts say…In the Sarasota-Manatee region, 6.3 percent of mortgages were at least 30 days overdue in October, up from 4.9 percent in September and from 4.2 percent one year earlie…Statewide, the 30-day delinquent rate surged to 9.7 percent in October, the highest rate in the nation. It was 7.5 percent in September and 6.4 percent a year ago’
I guess it didn’t occur to the writer that the non-hurricane parts of the state have a higher delinquency rate than the ones where it rained.
Actually Ben, that area emerged almost unscathed. The hardest-hit parts of the state were the middle Keys, which took heavy wind damage, and Jacksonville, which flooded. To say that the hurricane had any major or lasting impact in Sarasota-Manatee is a load.
http://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20170911/irmas-toll-on-sarasota-county-big-mess-but-mostly-minor-damage
Wow, I’m looking at the Corelogic PDF. Miami - Ft Lauderdale - West Palm Beach has a 12.5% 30 day or longer delinquency rate last October, up from 7.6% a year ago. This is the highest of any metro they reported on.
Houston - The Woodlands - Beaumont is at 10.9% in the same category, up from 5.8% a year ago. Recall that defaults shot up in Houston prior to the storm.
http://www.bkfs.com/Data/DataReports/BKFS_MM_Nov2017_Report.pdf
Data…including commentary about the hurricane season.
Some interesting data in that report. There’s a great graphic, a map of the U.S., showing home prices in comparison to 2006 bubble peak. Also the factlet that California alone has $2 trillion in “tappable” home equity, more than the next ten states combined. And I would be willing to be that 80% of that equity is in 20% of the markets. Wasn’t this how the “equity wave” started last time?
I don’t know for sure, but I think the measure against “peak” is also NOMINAL, not real…in other words, Stockton is 21% below the nominal peak…on a real basis, they are closer to 40% below peak values.
Also, on the refinance front, there is more “tappable” equity than the prior peak…but as a whole we aren’t “tapping” it nearly to the extent done in 2005/2006.
In the same vein of borrowers not being all that aggressive, ARMS are not being utilized very much…more akin to 2000 than 2005.
With zero inflation all prices are nominal, always.
the nominal peak…on a real basis…
Oh I get it. the price of houses is going up and therefore the “value” of imputed rents is going up. Let’s adjust the value of the house by the rise in the value of imputed rents and call it Real.
This is what your brain does when you are living in the mania.
Great point, Blue.
Of course I recognize that imputed rents are part of CPI (approximately 25%).
However, even if you strip out the housing portion of CPI, inflation isn’t 0%–Healthcare and “Other Goods and Services” increased more than housing from 2000 to 2016. “Food/beverage” went up meaningfully (about the same as “housing”).
http://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-price-inflation-components-2014-6
CPI isn’t inflation. It’s more garbage in garbage out by the federal reserve.
Is that like garbage in garbage out by the “Housing Analyst”? HA!
“Other Goods and Services” increased more than housing from 2000 to 2016…
Sure and they have been in steady decline for the past five years, but not back to 2000 level. Energy prices push commodities and construction pushes energy prices. What is pushing construction? Credit expansion and speculation.
Debt expansion pushes prices up and we are still in the biggest credit expansion in history. If you could strip that out of house prices, then they might be called “real”.
I have little to say about health care except that my masseuse raised her fee about 10% over the past decade. That’s real to me.
The point is a simple one, that you cannot deny.
$100 in 2006 bought you more NON-housing goods and services than $100 today does.
Again…. That’s not inflation.
‘Staten Island had 428 first-time foreclosure auctions scheduled in 2017, which was a 134 percent increase from 2016. Ifill hypothesized that the many residents in the borough were dealing with complications stemming from superstorm Sandy in 2012′
It was the hurricane that done it, 6 years ago.
Just starting to hear radio commercials for foreclosure scam services in SE Region IV.
Did you know that just because you are behind on your mortgage payments doesn’t mean the bank will give you a workout kind of thing.
‘Every bubble market I’ve witnessed comes with a sense that anyone can make money in the market. Remember the stock market of the late 1990s? Remember how everyone was a trader?’
I just got this in an email:
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Whenever I need a chuckle all I have to do is turn to this blog.
LOL, that advertisement is _priceless_!!!
Imagine the corresponding advertisement for folks to do the crowdsource _investing_ rather than trading:
-Take on all of the risk!
-Keep up to 15% of any returns
-New and inexperienced traders can play with your money
-All risk to you!
New Jersey joins other high tax states in searching for a work around to the SALT deduction limitation:
“Phil Murphy, a Democrat who will be sworn in as New Jersey’s governor on Jan. 16, said Friday he’s working on a plan that would effectively convert property taxes into charitable gifts.
Murphy’s charitable-giving plan builds off of a nascent movement among states to provide full and partial tax credits in return for donations that fund tuition vouchers for private and religious schools. A 2011 memo from the Internal Revenue Service seemed to signal the agency’s approval of taxpayers claiming federal deductions on those gifts.”
If property taxes == charitable gifts, is payment still enforceable? The second you make that change I cease sending in my annual check.
Don’t some employers twist your arm to donate to United Way? I’ve worked at places where I got a dirty look when I refused to contribute.
Me, I just take the flyer and walk it right over to the shredder, zero fks given. I have my own charities I contribute to, dont need my employer riding my nutz to give money to some shady slush fund they got mau-maud into supporting.
And here’s at least 1 NJ’ite that wont have to worry about the loss of SALT
NJ Doctor Charged With Having Wife Killed to Protect Drug Ring
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/April-Kauffman-Doctor-James-Kauffman-Murder-Charges-New-Jersey-Linwood-Egg-Harbor-468490463.html
How many of (((them))) are running this scam? Probably everyone in the AMA. Hopefully he’ll get some sweet lovin’ in prison.
I worked for a company that called everyone in the department in a room and said. 2 people have not signed up. we expect 100% participation. It helps for CRA credit. We don’t care how much you pleadge but everyone must pledge.
Once I left that company I never donated to the united way again. And never will again.
It’s fun to watch blue states squirm under the new rules. I can’t wait for the IRS to reject those non voluntary “charitable” contributions because they are taxes. I expect there will be lawsuits and it will end up decided by the Surpremes.
“… the Surpremes.”
As in Diana Ross?
Upside down?
Inside out?
Two most significant questions:
1. Is a state able to be a charity? In other words, do they meet the federal qualifications to be a charitable organization?
I honestly don’t know what it takes to be a charity, but I suspect there are lots of rules that a charity needs to follow which may be difficult for a state. A quick search notes that directors of a charity have a FIDUCIARY DUTY to the non-profit and its beneficiaries…can you imagine state employees taking any kind of such responsibility?
2. If so, what is the argument against allowing a state to provide a tax credit to a taxpayer for any money they decide to donate to the state?
Somedewd has the key to the issue. I guess it’s legal(?) to make a donation to the state as a non-profit and deduct from federal taxes, but expect the number of charitable donations to be close to zero. How are the states going to collect money? I suppose they could experiment with a state-wide sales tax.
I suppose they could experiment with a state-wide sales tax.
Wouldn’t sales tax also be covered under the SALT caps?
The last I heard, states were considering rejiggering their tax structure to convert state income taxes into payroll taxes. Payroll taxes are charged to employers and are fully deductible, so the net effect would be to skirt the $10k cap, although it would probably have a negative effect in concentrating taxes on wage income.
I guess it’s legal(?) to make a donation to the state as a non-profit and deduct from federal taxes, but expect the number of charitable donations to be close to zero.
It could just be made a choice - either pay the tax or contribute the same amount to the state charity.
convert state income taxes into payroll taxes
Deductible or not, the payroll tax may put more money into the pockets of the workers, but it will be taken out of the businesses operating budgets. States that try this will lose a lot of businesses.
It could just be made a choice - either pay the tax or contribute the same amount to the state charity.
A tax is a tax by any other name.
Since IRS is run by deep state leftists they will allow this scam to happen. Ince again Democrat states get to subvert the will of the people. See sanctuary states as well.
expect the number of charitable donations to be close to zero
They would not be zero if you got a 1/1 credit against your state taxes for your donation.
The last I heard, states were considering rejiggering their tax structure to convert state income taxes into payroll taxes.
And the natural reaction to this action: the jobs will flee to states that don’t have ridiculously high payroll taxes. I look forward to watching this occur.
It could just be made a choice - either pay the tax or contribute the same amount to the state charity.
In which case the state is compelling the public to pay the state in some fashion. John Roberts would call that a tax any day of the week. But if they make it voluntary like any other charity, nobody will pay, plain and simple.
What John Roberts would say is a pretty wild guess. The charity option could just be added as a new program in addition to the existing tax.
“They would not be zero if you got a 1/1 credit against your state taxes for your donation.” - Rental Watch
We’re talking about property taxes. Why would the state sacrifice revenue by “enticing” a property tax payment/donation through reduction of state income tax? Trump would approve of such a tactic.
‘Trump would approve of such a tactic’
That’s the beauty of it. Democrats falling all over themselves trying to keep rich, mostly white people from paying more taxes. Welcome to 3D chess. I can see the political ads now.
“Phil Murphy, a Democrat who will be sworn in as New Jersey’s governor on Jan. 16, said Friday he’s working on a plan that would effectively convert property taxes into charitable gifts”.
Did you know that IKEA is a “non-profit”?
https://www.fastcodesign.com/3035734/ikea-is-a-nonprofit-and-yes-thats-every-bit-as-fishy-as-it-sounds
You think (((they))) care? Theyre criminals and are trying to flood this country with more of their kind. 800K “‘dreamers” is more than the population of a number of states:
Alaska
Vermont
Wyoming
North Dakota
Since i never grew up in a SFH, it was always a 2 family house, it seems way too expensive today not to have a second income even if its a small mother in law apt.
“Since i never grew up in a SFH, it was always a 2 family house,”
Another piece of the puzzle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJaseyCitbM
I am personally excited to see all of these efforts to convert state income taxes into charitable donations. Why, you might ask? Because there is no better way to get the federal tax code revised to remove the charitable donation deductions. And it can’t happen too soon—why should every other taxpayer subsidize your personal choice to donate to charity?
That will also affect housing. Why? There are a bunch of people (mostly church goers) for whom buying pencils out only because their charitable donations PLUS their mortgage interest reduces their taxes significantly compared to the standard deduction.
I couldn’t agree more. Giving to charity should be its own intrinsic reward. The state shouldn’t be be giving a tax break for someone to donate to their church.
That’s a good point there. Paying to maintain a building that one worships or the salary of the pastor who ministers to one’s family is not really charitable giving. However, the fact that that’s the most common form of tax-deductible donation is also the reason that it will never go away.
Do the goods and services supported by charitable donations, combined with the cost of decreased tax revenue for those claiming deductions, otherwise exceed cost of taxpayer funding those goods and services through other programs?
The taxpayer generally doesn’t fund preaching through other programs.
“The state shouldn’t be be giving a tax break for someone to donate to their church.”
How about the library, food bank and art gallery?
There is another side of the coin. Church funds used to be where most welfare, hospital, and higher education were supported. Some might call that for the general good.
The idea that the state (FedGov) should get their cut of your money first falls in with relying on the state to control the dole of all things rather than the individual and community.
Calling the government of NJ a Charity is just perverted.
The state shouldn’t be be giving a tax break for someone to donate to their church.
OneAmongMany, there should be no tax breaks whatever because they distort the economy. taxation should be uniform. if taxes were uniform, they would be much lower. and that would be good for everyone. the poor should be cared for privately, not by government.
So you would be okay with getting rid of tax exempt status for churches and the donations made to them?
higher donations would be a natural result of increasing prosperity, which would happen if taxation was uniform.
so yes, i’d be in favor of getting rid of tax exemptions (no matter who they’re for). the more everyone feels the pain, the more pollytishuns will be held to account for.
Ormand Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/ormond-beach-fl/market-trends/
When is the next let’s all dress in black so we can make ourselves feel better about turning a blind eye for years to Harvey Weinstein raping young actresses party?
Hosted by Liberace.
She dressed in black to make herself look slim. I also suspect she was heavily girdled and possibly did a waterweight purge a couple days before.
“I love bread”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2sx8Bc4mAw
How can somebody talk about dieting for decades yet still be as big as a house? What a joke. It’s like a junkie who talks about how well they’ve done to quit heroin, yet continues to shoot up every day. The woman feeds her face with garbage every day, but talks like she’s eating healthy. I can’t stand these types of people. Walk the walk, don’t just talk the talk, otherwise you’re nothing but a bullshitter.
I’m a little more forgiving when it comes to diets, since everyone has gotten the diet information wrong over the past 30 years.
There is a strong possibility that the very obese aren’t stuffing their faces as much as we would think. Recently, researchers followed up on the Biggest Loser contestants, and found that most of them had regained that weight, and worse, their base metabolism was 500 calories/day less than other people of the same height. These obese folks probably have a damaged metabolism and insulin response that traditional dieting won’t fix. I can’t say I blame them for shifting to “body positivity,” since all that they have left. I wonder if any of them tried the extremely low-carb diets (less than 30 carb/day). That one seems to show a little promise.
I hear a lot of that. So where were all these low metabolism people 40-50 years ago?
I stopped drinking sugary soft drinks and I dropped over 20 lbs. I’m sure that if I were to kick some more bad habits I would lose more.
My point is that when I was a kid, a Coke was a treat, not something I drank on a daily basis. Now supermarkets have entire aisles dedicated to soft drinks.
Oxide is right. The dieting extremes have wreaked havoc on metabolism and hormone response. Bariatric surgery is probably the best intervention that we have and is most effective in the long run. Dieting is a losing game.
Prevention is probably the key, but that would probably mean living in a completely different society where empty calories are not abundantly cheap. Taxing added sugar would be a good start. It sounds cliche, but getting sufficient fruits and veggies in a day is almost miraculous. Almost no one, and I mean no one, eats anywhere near the 5/day minimum, even though consensus seems to be that 9 servings per day (5 veggies, 4 fruit) is optimal. Also, fiber (and not the dietary supplement) seems to be the holy grail when it comes to a healthy gut bacteria, which seems correlate to maintaining a healthy body weight. And sleep (quality and quantity) matters a ton, more than perhaps anything we ever thought.
The article below chronicles Oprah’s weight struggles, which tend to mirror those of Americans for the past several decades. It is about the most honest, best read I have come across with regards to dieting gimmicks, the weight industry, body shaming, and health.
Losing It In An Anti-Dieting Age:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/magazine/weight-watchers-oprah-losing-it-in-the-anti-dieting-age.html
So where were all these low metabolism people 40-50 years ago?
I’ve been very interested in that question too. My guess is that the low metabolism syndromes are caused by recent food additives that simply weren’t invented in the 1960’s. Specifically, high fructose corn syrup, seed oils (corn, soybean, canola, safflower, sunflower, cottonseed), lack of natural fats, and dwarf-hybrid wheat.
I know that kicking the HFCS habit has served me well.
try 24 hr fasting to lose weight
So where were all these low metabolism people 40-50 years ago?
You have to become obese _before_ your metabolism gets all jacked up. Sure, it is harder for some people to lose weight—but they made that bed before they slept in it.
“So where were all these low metabolism people 40-50 years ago?”
40-50 years ago water fluoridation was only starting to become widespread, and no generation yet had a lifetime of overexposure starting with adult-level doses in utero onwards as happened to people born in the 1970s and after, depending on location. Overlay the map of water fluoridation percentages in the US by the 1990s with a recent map of obesity rates per state and they are pretty similar.
Fluoride affects parts of the endocrine system like the thyroid and pituitary glands which control hormones and steroids that regulate a number of metabolism-related processes, from storing fat vs. burning it to breaking down or building muscle and much else.
Of course, talk about trans-fat or high fructose corn syrup and you’re a health activist; talk about fluoride and you’re a conspiracy nut.
Portion size also has something to do with it.
When I was a yout, a small beverage was 8 fluid ounces. Medium was 12 fluid ounces, and large was 16.
I see people at work toting around 42 oz. insulated mugs of Mountain Dew. Yikes . . .
You have to become obese _before_ your metabolism gets all jacked up.
Those bad additives — and heck maybe fluoride too — do both. They cause you to store fat and cause your body to depend on sugars for fuel. A recent book compared metabolism to a campfire. If the fire gets used to burning tinder like newspaper, it won’t burn the big logs. Instead it will start die down until you feed it more newspaper. If you stop feeding newspaper to the fire, the fire will be forced to burn the big logs. This is (very) roughly how low-carb diets work.
“Talk about fluoride and you’re a conspiracy nut”.
Some believe that it (fluoride) is part of a communist plot developed in the 50s to relieve American males of our precious bodily fluids:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr2bSL5VQgM
If you stop feeding newspaper to the fire, the fire will be forced to burn the big logs.
A fire isn’t “forced” to do anything; from that phrase, it is clear that you lack understanding of the zen of fire.
I’m still on the fence about fluoride. It may be OK as a directly-applied treatment for your teeth, but for the rest of your body in every glass of water that you drink for your entire life?
Of course, there are thousands of other chemicals at detectable levels in our bloodstream that weren’t there 100 years ago. Who knows what the full effects of that chemical cocktail really is? I suspect that some cancers and other diseases may be an effect.
Are there a lot of people in USA still drinking tap water?
Housing my friends….
Bethesda, MD Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/bethesda-md/market-trends/
That’s not the narrative that was scripted for you.
The Demik Rats need a candidate to publicly kiss off the minorities and articulate policies that will improve the quality of life for working class white men. “I don’t care about the votes of the skirts and the dindu’s, vote for me and I’ll make sure white men get overtime pay for anything more than 8 hours in one day.” Policies like that will necessarily benefit all workers and not just white men.
Or they can go with Oprah, all the women wearing black everywhere and calling all men predators, all minorities shot by police as innocent, so on… Cuz that’s what Pennsylvania and Michigan (MICHIGAN!) want…
“I don’t care about the votes of the skirts and the dindu’s, vote for me and I’ll make sure white men get overtime pay for anything more than 8 hours in one day
They wouldn’t be able to beat Trump at the WT game.
Are these policies different from those that would help working class black men too? Also, what do MI and PA want? It’s not clear from your post.
“Policies like that will necessarily benefit all workers and not just white men.”
all the women wearing black everywhere and calling all men predators, all minorities shot by police as innocent
Interestingly, no one has ever made such assertions.
They should all wear black for throwing Al Franken under the bus.
That Golden Globes act aint gonna play with UFC dads. It doesn’t play with me, and I last voted for a Republican in 1996.
A preview of the utopia that socialist millennial voters want for USA:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/shoppers-find-empty-shelves-after-venezuela-orders-discounts
Hmmmm … when they have food on the shelves the prices are high but when the shelves are empty the prices are low.
“I’d like to buy a loaf of bread.”
“Why not buy two loaves? We are currently running a two-loaves-for-the-price-of-one special.”
Okay, I’ll take two loaves.
“I am sorry but we are out of bread. Why not come back tomorrow? Tomorrow we will be offering a three-for-one special on loaves of bread.”
A buddy of mine was somewhere in the Caribbean and he went to an ‘All You Can Eat’ buffet that was $3. He finished his first plate and inquired about seconds they told him no can do. They said ‘ for $3, that’s all you can eat!’
Then there’s this….
http://worldnewsdailyreport.com/man-kicked-out-of-all-you-can-eat-buffet-after-eating-more-than-50-lbs-of-food-sues-for-2-millions/
Al Gore: ‘Bitter cold’ is ‘exactly what we should expect from the climate crisis’
By: Marc Morano - Climate DepotJanuary 4, 2018 10:07 PM
Former Vice President Al Gore has weighed in on the record cold and snow in the U.S. “It’s bitter cold in parts of the US, but climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann explains that’s exactly what we should expect from the climate crisis,” Gore wrote on January 4 on Twitter.
http://www.climatedepot.com/2018/01/04/al-gore-bitter-cold-is-exactly-what-we-should-expect-from-the-climate-crisis/
Al Gore is a buffoon. These cold snaps have been happening for 100+ years. We shouldn’t expect these due to “climate change”, we should expect them due to weather patterns.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/04/historical-photos-of-unparalleled-polar-vortex-outbreaks-in-d-c/?utm_term=.26b7a99a51cb
Silverton, OR Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/silverton-or/market-trends/
10 years of crow has messed up your mind.
Hello ShitHousePoet….
Boulder, CO Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/boulder-co/market-trends/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3PNDlhrS1g
… and remember… Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.
Andover, MA Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY</b.
https://www.movoto.com/andover-ma/market-trends/
https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/mb/articles/2018/pent-up-demand-continuing-price-increases
I wonder what they were saying in 2005-2006?
Something I wondered about this morning:
The people who _don’t_ think there is an echo-bubble, re-bubble, or a continuation of the same bubble: what is it that keeps them coming back here, year after year?
Are they just fascinated by the psychology of those folks who do believe they see bubbles?
If I didn’t believe there was a bubble of historical proportion and significance, in and of itself a fascinating economic phenomenon, I probably would have stopped reading here probably twelve or thirteen years ago.
Proverbs 26:11.
Proverbs 26:11
LOL!
…also, fools and money - soon departed. Again.
Proverbs 26:11: As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a fool returneth to his folly.
(King James version)
I believe there was a bubble in 2004-2007.
I believe that bubble popped and prices reached levels akin to a traditional cyclical trough in prices.
I believe that some markets are exhibiting similar price characteristics today, however, I do not believe there is a general housing bubble as there was in 2004-2007.
I believe that you get smarter by constantly having your own beliefs challenged and needing to defend those beliefs.
I find that the group here is pretty smart (with some exceptions), and so I feel the discussion gives me a better sense of reality than if I simply relied upon reading traditional news sources.
I come here because people go out on a limb like this:
‘I believe there was a bubble in 2004-2007. I believe that bubble popped’
That and the zany madcap humor.
Yes, I second that. That Mr. Banker really kills, but his jokes would be more funny if they weren’t so painfully true.
“I believe that bubble popped”
Formica counter tops are the next big thing!
i wonder if uncle FED will buy up treasuries hand over fist if china or japan ever decides to start dumping all they have bought?
“As the Federal Reserve floods the world with more dollars, other countries have one of two choices: 1) they can let the values of their own currencies rise or 2) they can print more of their own domestic currency to stay delta neutral with the deflating U.S. dollar.”
This is what china appears to have done. Print a bunch of money and bought US treasuries.
“Now if countries choose number 1, it doesn’t cause inflation in their domestic economies - it instead cause their economy to head south because a rising domestic currency valuation causes their exporters to become uncompetitive.”
Kenmore, WA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Housing Correction Envelopes Seattle
https://www.movoto.com/kenmore-wa/market-trends/
It’s worth remembering that the same thing happened in the US up to and during the crash.
Real estate people make their money through commission, so to them, it’s ALWAYS a great time to buy a home.
I remember that even as the US was collapsing, the real estate types were still talking about low inventories, missed opportunities, trapped equity, and granite countertops.
Some of them didn’t realize their world was collapsing even after they were out of a job.
some people want to believe so much they cant see reality.
cnbc is still wheeling out mouth pieces saying stocks are cheap after like a 10 year central bank induced bull market. People have been very lucky this bubble hasnt collapsed. If you have been gains you would be pretty greedy holding on for more.
Broke @ss middle class:
http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/10/news/companies/sears-sales-plunge-cost-cuts/index.html
I guess walmart might be picking up their scraps?
There will be no shareholder equity left after management spends it all.
stock quote: $3.29 what a joke this was a 200 stock before it was looted.
Surprisingly candid article from the NAR: https://www.realtor.com/news/real-estate-news/realtors-licking-wounds-get-ready-next-battle/
From the summary: ““Granted, it may not be the perfect measure, but how many times have you asked or have you heard someone else ask: ‘Who can afford these houses?’”
I think it’s first time buyers reaching (takes out a big loan) to buy dilapidated houses. Dilapidated owner reaches to buy something nicer. Nicer house owner reaches to buy something nicer. It’s the food chain. The plankton drive the entire food chain. The “property ladder.” I don’t think a lot of first timers are plunking down 500-700K to buy houses.
The interesting thing about this time around is the advent of “contingent/No Kick Out” contracts. The market is so “hot” here (central Maryland - but lots of foreclosures/preforeclosures) that it’s common on listings. It means that the contingency on the purchase contract is that the buyer will execute once he finds a buyer for his house.
‘Who can afford these houses?’
A close corollary is “I wouldn’t buy my house today for what it is ‘worth’.”
I fall into that camp.
Vienna, VA Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/vienna-va/market-trends/
When will you realize… Vienna waits for you?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wccRif2DaGs
I’ll happily eat every crow in sight if this keeps up:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/7-eleven-probe-opens-new-front-on-immigration/ar-BBIcXRe
and this
http://www.euronews.com/2018/01/10/feds-raid-l-maternity-hotel-birth-tourists-n315996
We don’t need no stinkin wall. We also don’t need a bunch of 22-year-olds with BA degrees from 5th tier colleges - and that goes for people born here as well.
The WSJ real estate article today is great comments on Facebook. I swear some of you were posting there!
https://www.wsj.com/articles/realtors-licking-their-wounds-get-ready-for-their-next-battle-1515538892?mod=e2fb
my job is obsolete cause of inflation. Cant afford to work.
“Federal Prosecutors: Lockport Realtor Lied About Lead Paint Presence To Sell Home”
https://www.wkbw.com/news/federal-prosecutors-lockport-realtor-lied-about-lead-paint-presence-to-sell-home
Huma Weiner
She kept the name?
Top indicator?
Just got in to a screaming match with a friend who bought a 405k 1920s crap shack in Korearown LA in 2015 that he claims is now worth 690k and trying to convince me I can still afford to buy?!?!
Not making any more dirt he says.
But my question is… If it keeps appreciating fkr5 ever I could just buy in at any time and cash out right? So what’s the rush?
Here’s the listing… https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/464-N-Ardmore-Ave-Los-Angeles-CA-90004/20781545_zpid/
Everyone wants to live in LA’s Koreatown.
The Rolling Stones - Harlem Shuffle - OFFICIAL PROMO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAkMTu6q2pY
“How much higher can housing prices go? The median home price is equal to more than seven and a half years of income for the median household. Experts used to recommend that you spend no more than two and a half times your annual income on your home purchase.”
Stupid is as stupid does.
Here’s the link for the property
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/464-N-Ardmore-Ave-Los-Angeles-CA-90004/20781545_zpid/
we should devalue the dollar more with QE4 so the chinese have to print more and buy more of our debt so entitlement checks can get mailed out.
They don’t have to print, they can just use the money we send them to buy the treasuries.
I know this can’t go on forever, but maybe it can go on until I’m taking my dirt nap.