People Got Houses They Just Couldn’t Afford
A report from Kings County Politics in New York. “With Canarsie and East New York leading the way, foreclosures in Brooklyn doubled last year and were at their highest levels in over a decade, according to PropertyShark. The reports found that 827 homes were scheduled to be auctioned in Brooklyn during 2017, while there were 410 first time foreclosures in 2016. The previous record dates from 2008 when foreclosure cases peaked across the city and Brooklyn had 460 homes scheduled. The highest concentration of foreclosed homes is located in the eastern part of the borough, with zip code 11236 in Canarsie logging 113 new cases. Neighboring zip codes 11208 (East New York) and 11234 (Canarsie) follow with 94 and 86 cases, respectively.”
“‘A lot of people bought without a lot of resources and then something happens that collapses their plans. For certain there are a lot of real estate brokers that arranged for people to get houses that they just couldn’t afford,’ said City Councilman Alan Maisel (D-Canarsie, Flatlands, Bergen Beach).”
“There are a lot of people who come into the office that make around $50,000 and are paying on a $500,000 mortgage making them house poor and yet they don’t want to sell their house because they see it as their investment and retirement, said Maisel. Maisel said while he is not surprised that foreclosures are up in the neighborhood, there could be more coming as last year there were between 800-900 homeowners that were earmarked for liens against their property for failing to pay water and property taxes.”
From The Observer. “The Plaza Hotel remains one of New York City’s ultimate trophy properties. But as a real estate investment, The Plaza may be losing its luster. With its quirky prewar layouts and competition from a glut of glittering super luxury towers like One57, 220 CPS and 225 West 57th, sales of the hotel’s residences have been somewhat challenging, according to even the most optimistic brokers. And sellers are certainly not seeing the massive flip profits that can be seen at similar luxury buildings.”
“‘A lot of these apartments are overpriced,’ Chris Fry of Elegran, who is listing an 4,665-square-foot, four-bedroom unit in the building for $18.9 million. He says, however, that his listing is priced to sell. ‘But if you are Tommy Hilfiger you can basically let it sit there,’ at whatever price, he adds.”
“Hilfiger isn’t the only victim of what industry insiders refer to as ‘aspirational pricing.’ Although it’s not currently on the market, developer Harry Macklowe, of 432 Park fame, recently claimed in court that his seventh-floor Plaza residence is worth $107 million, which is $7 million above the price of the most expensive condo ever sold in New York, according to the Real Deal. Real estate appraiser Jonathan Miller of the firm Miller Samuel puts the value of the unit closer to $55 million, which is $5 million less than the Macklowes paid for the apartment in the heydays of 2007.”
“It’s certainly not a problem that’s unique to The Plaza. Sellers across the city, unwilling to face the realities of the current marketplace, brought the top end of the market to a virtual standstill in 2017. It is, however, an issue that is acute within the Plaza. Of the 11 apartments listed at the Plaza that are asking over $10 million, more than half of them have recently slashed prices—perhaps an indication that sellers are getting realistic.”
From The Real Deal. “Extell Development quieted naysayers betting against Central Park Tower by closing $1.14 billion in financing for its planned supertall. But now the clock is ticking for Gary Barnett’s firm — thanks to a loan clause that requires the developer to sell $500 million worth of apartments by 2020. Despite that three-year runway, luxury pads are taking longer to sell compared to years past: Properties asking $4 million or more spent an average of 433 days on the market in 2017, compared to 318 days in 2016, according to Olshan Realty, which tracks luxury units placed under contract.”
“Miller Samuel data show that discounts got steeper for more expensive properties: The average discount was 5.8 percent for pads priced between $10 and $20 million; 12.5 percent for $20 to $30 million; 14.9 percent for $30 to $40 million; and 26.2 percent for properties priced at $40 million or more.”
“‘There’s this false idea that nothing is selling; the issue is that most of the stuff in the $10 to $20 million segment is overpriced,’ said Brown Harris Stevens’ Lisa Lippman. She said one of her clients was recently bidding on a condo whose owners upped the price from $18 million to $19.3 million. ‘My client was willing to bid in the high $18’s,’ she said. But the higher price was simply ‘not going to happen.’”
“She said sellers (and developers) — got overly ambitious with prices in 2015 and 2016. ‘There gets to be a point where even the very wealthy push back,’ said Lippman. ‘If you price at 2013, 2014 levels, units will sell. There’s just not this 20 percent of fat on top.’”
“That’s especially true in new development, where supply far exceeds demand. The ratio of inventory to sales for properties above $30 million was six-to-one last year, according to data from StreetEasy. There were just 24 deals in that price category, but 145 for-sale properties on the market. (For the $10 to $20 million segment, the ratio was three-to-six; and for properties asking $20 to $30 million, it was five-to-eight.)”
“Grant Long, a senior economist at StreetEasy, said the pipeline of projects still being built gives him reason to believe the luxury market will remain soft this year. ‘Each new building is trying to outdo the next,’ he said.”
From The Cooperator. “There was a drop in average price for Manhattan co-op resales from $815,000 to $785,000, representing a 4 percent decline from third quarter 2017 to fourth quarter 2017, for reasons similar as condominium sales. Perhaps the most significant changes in the market are in inventory and months-of-supply. Market wide, the overall number of units available increased by 9 percent since fourth quarter 2016, jumping more steeply from the third to fourth quarters in 2017. ‘This represented the highest fourth quarter total since 2011,’ said Corcoran. ‘This inventory increase was fueled by increases in new development inventory at recently launched developments Downtown.’”
“Overall, closed sales remained virtually unchanged over fourth quarter 2016, though they declined 15 percent over third quarter 2016, a possible ‘canary in the mine shaft’ for 2018. This decline may be related to uncertainty over the new tax bill passed by Congress and signed into law before Christmas. The law severely restricts the deductibility of state and local real estate and income taxes from federal tax calculations going forward. That provision is seen by many as a possible ‘dampener’ on prices in tax heavy states and cities, such as New York.”
“‘The new tax law applies strongly to the New York City market,’ says Simon Seaton, an agent also with Halstead, ‘and will play a larger role in buyer decisions. Its ultimate affect still remains to be seen.’”
From Bloomberg. “Apartment rents in Manhattan fell the most in almost four years as landlords made deeper price cuts to lure tenants in a market brimming with choices. Landlords agreed to accept a median rent of $3,295 last month, or 2.7 percent less than the previous December, appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate said in a report. It was the biggest annual decline since February 2014. After concessions such as free months and the payment of broker’s fees are factored in, tenants paid a median of $3,208, down 2.5 percent from a year earlier. That decline was also the biggest since February 2014.”
“After two years of propping up apartment prices with behind-the-scenes offers of free months and gift cards, owners contending with a flood of supply could no longer hold up the dam. They still offered sweeteners — last month, in 36 percent of all new leases, a record share — but they also agreed to whittle what they charged in rents.”
“‘The concessions were working for a while, but the consumer is now really pushing more on the negotiating side of the rents,’ said Hal Gavzie, who oversees leasing for Douglas Elliman. ‘The price points needed somewhat of a correction.’”
‘There are a lot of people who come into the office that make around $50,000 and are paying on a $500,000 mortgage’
But, unpossible. We are told repeatedly that unless there are negative amortization loans, FB’s can pay any price. As long as the calendar on the wall doesn’t say 2008, the loans will probably be OK.
‘For certain there are a lot of real estate brokers that arranged for people to get houses that they just couldn’t afford’
Jingle? Jingle? Bueller?
“A lot of people bought without a lot of resources and then something happens that collapses their plans.”
- I recommend the book “The Millionaire Next Door” for these and many other “Investment” minded individuals.
‘Miller Samuel data show that discounts got steeper for more expensive properties: The average discount was 5.8 percent for pads priced between $10 and $20 million; 12.5 percent for $20 to $30 million; 14.9 percent for $30 to $40 million; and 26.2 percent for properties priced at $40 million or more.’
When this thing first started in NYC a couple of years ago, one thing we noticed here was big price cuts, but they were still looking to double their money. Chasing the market down again. Lifestyles of the rich and careless.
Maybe these $50k folks got their $500k mortgage a few years ago when they were making $75k (possibly $15o for household); then they got laid off and had to take a lower paying job.
Because I don’t think anyone is approving $500k on $50 k income.
Google strawberry pickers getting $750,000 mortgages in Housing Bubble V1.0
++++
Because I don’t think anyone is approving $500k on $50 k income.
Ben’s comment mentioned that “unless there are neg-am loans.” There is no neg-am here, so no $750k loans. And I meant that nobody is approving those loans NOW (since 2008).
‘nobody is approving those loans NOW’
Sure, foreclosures almost double the 2008 peak. Probably just a hurricane or something.
Sure, foreclosures almost double the 2008 peak. Probably just a hurricane or something.
Where? Because that certainly isn’t a national statistic. Not even close.
Did you notice greater Miami is closing in on bust era Las Vegas-ish numbers of delinquencies? Florida is a hair from 10% statewide. You can lead a donkey to water…
With foreclosure moratorium efforts in effect in all 50 states, we don’t know the real statistic.
And keep in mind that neg am and subprime mortgages are widely available, especially where the wage/price ratio exceed the long term metric of 2x yearly income.
FL statewide is approximately 10.1% non-current according to the Black Knight Mortgage Monitor. This is up 58% from last year.
With the exception of Texas (up 16% non-current rate year on year) and Alaska (up 5% from last year…to 3.4%), every other state’s non-current rate is down from last year.
Nationally, the non-current rate is 5.2%, down 4.2% from last year.
The Foreclosure rate nationally is 0.66%…delinquency about 4.5%. This is a FAR cry from “double the 2008 peak” on a national basis.
Again… Moratoriums obscure whatever Black Knight comes up with.
‘a FAR cry from “double the 2008 peak” on a national basis’
You should read the post above, then you might understand what’s being discussed instead of jumping in half baked.
My bad on the “double the 2008 peak comment”. Apologies. I now see that you were referring to Brooklyn.
When I asked about “where”, I was wondering where you were going with the comment regarding Florida since the article appeared to be about NYC.
Why not? The loan service is less than half their gross. Who cares if they can pay the principle off in their lifetime?
‘Maisel said many constituents come to his office with these problems and he tries to help them all. Last year, two sisters bought a house, and then one of the sisters lost her job and there goes their ability to pay for the house, said Maisel.’
‘Maisel said another problem is there are many two-family houses in the district, and people buy a house thinking they can rent out the other apartment and then the tenants scam them by paying for a month or two and then stop paying rent.’
“They [the homeowner] goes to court, but it takes months to get the tenants removed and people lose their house. Studies have shown the financial condition of landlords [in two-and three-family homes] are not marginally better off than their tenants,” said Maisel. “You can’t treat a two-family homeowner like they are LeFrak.”
Remember Freddie Mac with the illegal immigrant loans based on roommates incomes?
I kinda like it when people who for liberals/progressives/socialists get smacked in the face with socialism.
They don’t learn, but it is still funny.
“Remember Freddie Mac with the illegal immigrant loans based on roommates incomes?”
Remember?
Isn’t it still going on?
“Remember Freddie Mac with the illegal immigrant loans based on roommates incomes?”
They have had at least 2 stories on the local news in Seattle in the past year or so, and I only watch the news once every few weeks so there were undoubtedly more, where they were highlighting the affordability problems and the new loan products where prospective housemates’ incomes could be used to “afford” a new house. They even had an Indian woman (H1B?) as the example of someone who was using said “product.” What a joke.
I won’t qualify roommates (nor boyfriend/girlfriend) as tenants trying to combine incomes. It never lasts. One leaves and maybe another bum replaces that one. Eventually I have to evict them and I take the hit. Yet these fools are loaning hundreds of thousands to the same arrangement.
“Yet these fools are loaning hundreds of thousands to the same arrangement.”
When it’s backed by the US taxpayer, they couldn’t care less.
Good for you, Ben. You might be able to trust rings and papers, but that’s about it.
As for the Freddie Mac loans, IIRC you can already count “rental income” as income to buy the house, and your unrelated non-rental income can contribute up to 5% of the rent of the income.
Either way, it’s very stretched. The cars (and beater trucks and vans) on my block change a lot, likely because the owners have to keep bringing in new basement renters to keep up the payments — whether rent or mortgage.
White van land
I hope they let illegals that do tree work stay
Ben Jones: I won’t qualify roommates (nor boyfriend/girlfriend) as tenants trying to combine incomes. It never lasts. One leaves and maybe another bum replaces that one. Eventually I have to evict them and I take the hit. Yet these fools are loaning hundreds of thousands to the same arrangement.
If the loan defaults, the originator does not take the hit. The money is extracted from the rest of society via our “privatize the profits, socialize the losses” FIRE sector economic model. And on top of that, there’s the concept of “safe harbor” which was later added, wherein if a loan meets certain criteria at origination, it cannot be pushed back to the originator. So their profit model has very little to do with repayment, and everything to do with just making the loan and getting it sold to the government.
‘Maisel said many constituents come to his office with these problems and he tries to help them all. Last year, two sisters bought a house, and then one of the sisters lost her job and there goes their ability to pay for the house, said Maisel.’
I have made the point before that using the metric of “household income” for housing affordability is a mistake. It should be based on one person’s income.
‘For certain there are a lot of real estate brokers that arranged for people to get houses that they just couldn’t afford’
“Lawsuit: Realtor, Developer Conspired to Inflate Home Prices”
http://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/washington/articles/2018-01-05/lawsuit-realtor-developer-conspired-to-inflate-home-prices
‘The reports found that 827 homes were scheduled to be auctioned in Brooklyn during 2017, while there were 410 first time foreclosures in 2016. The previous record dates from 2008 when foreclosure cases peaked across the city and Brooklyn had 460 homes scheduled’
Take a look at the graph on that article. Yesterday we learned greater Miami has 12.5% of loans 30 days delinquent or more. Almost 10% of the loans in all of Florida in the same category! Both of which were huge increases YOY. I wonder why this is only reported in web based media or minor publications and ignored by the MSM? What if the bubble popped and it was covered up by reports of luxury “owners” slashing prices on airboxes they haven’t stepped foot in?
‘Grant Long, a senior economist at StreetEasy, said the pipeline of projects still being built gives him reason to believe the luxury market will remain soft this year.’
Another guy really going out on a limb. Every single day I could show dozens of reports of more towers getting financing, refinancing, approval, announced start dates in NYC and Miami. This is yellen bucks lining up for money heaven.
‘Extell Development quieted naysayers betting against Central Park Tower by closing $1.14 billion in financing for its planned supertall. But now the clock is ticking for Gary Barnett’s firm — thanks to a loan clause that requires the developer to sell $500 million worth of apartments by 2020.’
Poof!
Granny Felon will be sipping gin n’ juice from the deck of a yacht as the entire scam of her making comes crashing down. I’d like to see that old crank in handcuffs.
Any thoughts on how much longer the rout in Treasurys will continue?
3% on the 30 year bond will certainly put a different perspective on those 4% cap rate luxury apartments.
Not to mention the effect on the prospect of gambling that the price of one Bitcoin will double from its current $13445.00 price in the foreseeable future…
Much ado about nothing?
“…This is not the first time China has threatened to back away from Treasurys.
In 2009, amid the Global Financial Crisis and early in Barack Obama’s first term in office, former Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told reporters that China has “lent a huge amount of money to the U.S.” and “of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried.”
China was the largest holder of U.S. sovereign debt at that time, too.
Its Treasury holdings are greater now than they were then.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/treasurys-bond-markets-move-because-us-depends-on-china-as-buyer.html
The discussion of Asia pulling out of U.S. Treasurys dates back to at least 1989.
What will China so with all of the $ we send them if not buy future $ (Treasurys)?
China’s trade surplus with the US hit a record high in 2017
Everett Rosenfeld | @Ev_Rosenfeld
Published 52 Mins Ago
Updated 29 Mins Ago
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/chinas-trade-surplus-with-the-us-hit-a-record-high-in-2017.html
Tweet, tweet…
Janus Henderson U.S. @JHIAdvisorsUS
Gross: Bond bear market confirmed today. 25 year long-term trendlines broken in 5yr and 10yr maturity Treasuries.
7:59 AM - Jan 9, 2018
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/bond-guru-bill-gross-signals-end-of-bull-era-for-treasury-markets.html?recirc=taboolainternal
Don’t look now, but the thirty year T-bond yield is on the brink of rocketing past 3%, a level last seen in May 2017…
Rout? What rout? Yields aren’t even as high as they were a few months ago.
Almost back up to May 2015 levels since ending 2017 at a much lower 30-yr yield.
Somehow it’s headline news when the Dow sheds 20 points (a non-event), while a major selloff in Treasurys gets little notice.
There’s Another Culprit for Treasury Rout Besides Japan and China
By Sid Verma
January 12, 2018, 2:38 AM PST
- Bear steepener accelerated by Portugal, Italy auctions: BofA
- Sovereign supply vs ECB taper source of ongoing pressure: TD
- Bill Gross Says 3% Yield on 10-Year Treasury Is Possible
Treasury traders assigning blame to Japanese monetary shifts and Chinese bond preferences for this week’s selloff may be overlooking a longer-term threat: supply from European governments drunk on quantitative easing.
Strategists at Bank of America Corp. and TD Securities Inc. cite hefty regional issuance from the likes of Italy and Portugal this week as a catalyst in the abrupt steepening of the U.S. yield curve. Even though the government auctions went off smoothly, some say they helped trigger a steeper U.S. curve, as governments are front-loading issuance while the European Central Bank slows purchases.
“Bear steepening of the Treasury curve accelerated when it was announced that Portugal and Italy – among other countries - are looking to issue longer maturity bonds,” Bank of America strategists led by Hans Mikkelsen wrote in a note this week. “European sovereign supply becomes heavier for the markets to absorb as monthly ECB QE purchases have been cut in half.”
…
Let me translate.
NYC folks with NYC average wages bought way overpriced apartments/condos/SFH. They thought ever increasing appreciation would bail them out FOREVER and that they could also retire on their “investment.”
Taxes, HOA, fees and upkeep (f*ck - even the water bill!) are eating them ALIVE
+++++
“‘A lot of people bought without a lot of resources and then something happens that collapses their plans. For certain there are a lot of real estate brokers that arranged for people to get houses that they just couldn’t afford,’ aid City Councilman Alan Maisel (D-Canarsie, Flatlands, Bergen Beach).”
“There are a lot of people who come into the office that make around $50,000 and are paying on a $500,000 mortgage making them house poor and yet they don’t want to sell their house because they see it as their investment and retirement, said Maisel. Maisel said while he is not surprised that foreclosures are up in the neighborhood, there could be more coming as last year there were between 800-900 homeowners that were earmarked for liens against their property for failing to pay water and property taxes.”
And just wait until one or more of rotting underground train or subway tunnels has to be closed for repairs or to be completely rebuilt.
this will be funnnnnnn not!
https://www.amny.com/transit/l-train-shutdown-explained-facts-figures-proposals-and-more-1.11761564
Didn’t everyone want to live in Seattle?
+++++++
Once Hot Seattle Apartment Market Hit by Onslaught of Supply
Wolf Richter - Jan 9, 2018
In Metropolitan Seattle, there are currently 24,554 apartment units under construction and an additional 35,009 units in the development pipeline, counting only units in buildings with 50+ apartments, according to Apartment Insights. These are the towers that are sprouting like mushrooms. This does not include condos that are purchased by investors and then show up on the rental market. And it does not include units in smaller buildings.
This comes after nearly 12,000 units were completed in 2017. And according to Axiometrics, nearly 8,000 units are scheduled for completion in the first half of this year alone. This is the phenomenon that “crane counters” have been witnessing for a while.
The most expensive neighborhood, Seattle Downtown, experienced the steepest rent decline of 6.6% from the prior quarter, but was still up 4.5% from a year ago.
What emerges from this data is the picture of a market where there is no “housing shortage.” There are plenty of move-in ready units available, and landlords are eager to rent them out. But there is a shortage of apartments that people who don’t work for Amazon or in biotech can afford. In this aspect, Seattle parallels other expensive cities, such as San Francisco, which has its own boom of high-end high-rise construction, putting plenty of units on the market, but not in a price category that the median wage earner in the City can afford. This factor will put downward pressure on rents across the spectrum.
What do you know, massive additional supply is causing rents to decline in Seattle (and NYC, and SF, etc.). Shocking.
But of course, lack of supply in other markets can’t possible lead to higher rents/prices.
And when we are building 75% of the long-term average number of housing units on an annual basis, there are more undersupplied markets than oversupplied.
Which is why, on average, across the country, rents and home prices are still going up faster than inflation.
It’s as plain as the nose on your face, and every article about a particular location where rents are falling due to overbuilding confirms that supply (or lack thereof) plays a huge part in prices/rents.
Massive housing supply exists everywhere. Condos, SFRs, high rises.
They’re as plain as the nose on your face.
75% of the long-term average number of housing units…
Long term massive oversupply. Owner built is in the toilet. Speculator built doing better. Based on expectations of rising prices, not on organic demand at exorbitant prices.
“There are plenty of move-in ready units available, and landlords are eager to rent them out. But there is a shortage of apartments that people who don’t work for Amazon or in biotech can afford. In this aspect, Seattle parallels other expensive cities, such as San Francisco, which has its own boom of high-end high-rise construction, putting plenty of units on the market, but not in a price category that the median wage earner in the City can afford.”
Nothing like building the completely wrong product for the job. Where are all those rich, techie Millennials that developers talked about, now?
Seattle 3 year time lapse video from the Space Needle
It’s an Amazon jungle out there.
Can’t help but wonder how much of that new high rise construction represents luxury housing units funded by federally-insured GSE loans?
This echo’s something that you have been arguing for a number of years now Ben…Interesting Read…
https://www.city-journal.org/html/lifeblood-cities-15639.html
Interesting…
Not one word of democrats being in charge of these cities for 60+ years, insane public unions, insane property taxes, high city wage taxes, high city sales taxes, terrible schools despite record funding, out control crime, massive corruption, etc.
It is just a “lack of investment” and that no one wants to live there.
Yet surrounding (mostly republican) suburbs are doing quite well…
+++++
today’s middle neighborhoods also include many of America’s black middle-class bastions, like Chicago’s Chatham neighborhood. For many of these neighborhoods, a lack of investment and dearth of next-generation homeowners are far bigger concerns than gentrification.
You omit the vast rural areas in red states where tens of thousand of towns are slowly dying because the young people are either leaving or addicted to opioids, and the only jobs are at Wal Mart or selling drugs. What is their about republican areas that creates so much despair?
I like this thesis:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/30/opinion/the-gamblers-ruin-of-small-cities-wonkish.html?_r=0&mtrref=www.google.com&assetType=opinion
That’s an interesting read. I guess Krugman can still think critically when he’s not being a shill for the Fed.
Ben, is this really the comment that get approved? Blatant racism and antisemitism?
What an idiot. His gun jammed or something, because you can see him rack the slide then point it at them again. The world is a safer place with him dead and gone. I’m sure his parents were real winners. Probably a crack ho mom and no father to be found.
Not everything gets approved. Some of it goes through without review.
Fair enough. I had thought wrongly that all comments went through an approval process.
Because the article wasn’t about rural areas?
But if I was going to write an article on that subject, I wouldn’t ignore the top ten issues so that my political narrative and propaganda would not be impacted. Unlike the fake legacy news of America.
And funny how these things happen in certain areas…
Wife Of Man Attacked By Teens During Carjacking Speaks With WJZ
Jonathan McCall - January 9, 2018 - WJZ
BALTIMORE — Carjacked, thrown to the ground, and driven over with his own car.
The wife of a Baltimore County man who was attacked during a carjacking talks to WJZ about the vicious attack that now has four teens behind bars.
Last Wednesday morning, Baltimore County police say six teens viciously carjacked, assaulted, and drove over Willinghan.
The most serious was a broken pelvis, which happened when the teens drove over him before taking off.
“It’s going to be a slow-going process. My husband can’t walk right now, and he’s got a big bruise on his back, slight internal bleeding,” Willinghan’s wife said.
“It’s crazy. 15 and 16 year olds are supposed to be in school on a Wednesday at 10:30 in the morning,” neighbor Linda Knudsen said.
“Everybody is scared,” Knudsen said.
Hands of my ss and medicare!
Living (and dying) in ‘da hood… fast forward to 4:10
Gangsta get owned by North Little Rock’s finest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0L0MeZZ3VQ
What is their about republican areas that creates so much despair ??
As long as there are no unions or Democrats 2-fruit is fine with it.
What is their about republican areas that creates so much despair?
Globalism destroyed the jobs on a national level, and the local Republicans could do almost nothing about.
As for opioids, I really cannot figure out why there are so many addicts. They couldn’t ALL get addicted from too many Percocet pills, especially the younger set.
American poverty is moving to the suburbs
Dan Kopf June 09, 2017
In his inaugural address, US president Donald Trump listed out the problems he saw in a declining America. At the top of his list: “Mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities.” It was not the first time Trump had spoken of urban poverty. “Our inner cities are a disaster,” Trump said in the third presidential debate of 2016. “You get shot walking to the store. They have no education. They have no jobs.”
In addition to their racist undertones, Trump’s statements promote a dangerous misrepresentation of the geography of poverty in the United States.
Over the last several decades, US poverty has increasingly spread to the suburbs. In 1990, the majority of poverty in the 100 largest US metro areas was found in urban areas. But recent research by the political scientist Scott Allard shows that, in absolute numbers, this no longer holds true. The University of Washington professor estimates that there are 17 million people living in poverty in the suburbs of the US’s big cities—4 million more than in cities themselves.
https://qz.com/1001261/american-poverty-is-moving-to-the-suburbs/
I don’t know what that statistic signifies. Probably 70% of the population in Southern California is living in poverty, while maybe 2% live in anything considered “inner city.” Yes numbers are from my butt.
Most of the 100 largest US metro areas are probably not like Southern California. On other hand, if they are, and so few Americans actually live in inner cities, it doesn’t make sense that so many suburbanites are so obsessed with the maladies of inner cities.
it doesn’t make sense that so many suburbanites are so obsessed with the maladies of inner cities.
The news burns certain images into the brains of watchers. Reginald Denny for example. Such things do seem to capture the imagination of suburbanites for many years afterwards.
You might think that Stephen Paddock, the guy who killed 58 people in Las Vegas, would fall into the same category. Somehow he doesn’t.
His motive has been successfully hidden so far. If people knew that he wanted to get them personally it would get their attention. But nobody knows.
That’s an odd explanation. With 58 dead bodies and hundreds of injuries, I can’t see why people would care what the motive was.
‘why people would care what the motive was’
Because something stinks about this thing.
How are these statements racist? I don’t see any mention of race. And if Trump is a racist for saying this stuff, then I guess everybody is a racist, because we’ve been hearing about the disaster of poverty in the inner cities for decades. Adding suburban poverty to the mix doesn’t wipe out the urban poverty.
It’s probably what he said after “sh*thole”
“Why do we want all these people from Africa here? They’re sh*thole countries … We should have more people from Norway.”
Keeping folks out from countries with very dark complexion and then following it up with a suggestion that we get more lily white folk probably gives the impression of racism.
Especially when combined with historic lawsuits alleging racist leasing practices in his apartment buildings (which to be fair wasn’t unique to the Trump organization).
‘lily white folk’
Racist.
lol
Norway Ethnic groups:
Norwegian 94.4% (includes Sami, about 60,000), other European 3.6%, other 2% (2007 est.)
https://www.indexmundi.com/norway/ethnic_groups.html
How white is white? How dark is dark? Do you have grades grand wizard?
Nope, not grades, just my eyeballs (as well as the rest of the world).
It’s ok to say “lily white” about white people, but say “black as coal” about a black person and all of a sudden you are the world’s biggest racist. I am sick and tired of the double standard in this country.
Why can there be a BET (Black Entertainment Channel)? Can you imagine the outrage if somebody said “I’m going to start a “white entertainment channel?”" There are innumerable examples of this throughout our society, and it’s time it stopped. It needs to be equal for all, not special treatment for certain skin colors.
Lily white suggests a grade. What is a lily white?
When skin color comes up as some kind of qualification/disqualification I offer to bring out paint swatches so the offender can point out exactly where “white” begins and ends.
It needs to be equal for all, not special treatment for certain skin colors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56KYMMGudcU
“Yet surrounding (mostly republican) suburbs are doing quite well…”
That may or may not be true, but it’s not in the article.
As far as Buffalo, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Chicago, I’m guessing most people with any kind of ambition leave those places and head to the Sun Belt or out west.
And any affluent suburb of Baltimore is probably doing well because of DC pork.
That’s got to be an exaggeration. Most of those cities have a number of top employers who attract talent from all over the country.
And the population shift from the rust belt to the sun belt is explained by…
That’s a separate question entirely and would take a while to explain. The development of affordable air conditioning, for example, is one factor that made life in the Sun Belt more appealing.
It’s also possible that the facts are the opposite of your assertion. Maybe it’s the least talented, least industrious people who have moved south and west.
What is coming.
The end of obama’s QEs, ZIRP, TARP, bailouts and massive debts.
++++++
Party While You Can - Central Banks Are Ready To Pop The ‘Everything’ ZeroHedge - 01/10/2018
Now comes the era of Jerome Powell, who will oversee the last stages of fiscal tightening, the reduction of the Fed balance sheet, faster rate increases and the final implosion of the ‘everything’ bubble.
Assessment: By all indications the Fed did do more, MUCH more. Including QE3, various stimulus packages and incessantly low interest rates for years, the Fed has essentially stepped in every time stock markets in particular were about to crash back to their natural state of decline. Powell is being rather honest in his estimation here that these stopgaps are in fact temporary and that the Fed cannot produce true economic growth to support the market optimism they have created through their interventions. He is stating openly that markets will only remain optimistic so long as they are assured that the Fed will continue to intervene.
Powell: “When it is time for us to sell, or even to stop buying, the response could be quite strong; there is every reason to expect a strong response. So there are a couple of ways to look at it. It is about $1.2 trillion in sales; you take 60 months, you get about $20 billion a month. That is a very doable thing, it sounds like, in a market where the norm by the middle of next year is $80 billion a month. Another way to look at it, though, is that it’s not so much the sale, the duration; it’s also unloading our short volatility position.”
Assessment: And here we have Powell’s shocking admission, clarifying his previous point — the “strong response” that Powell is referring to is a market reversal, or bubble implosion. He even admits the existence of the Fed’s “short position on volatility.” This explains the strange behavior of the VIX index, which has plunged to record lows as “someone” continually shorts VIX stocks in order to interfere with any decline in markets.
So, what happens when the Fed stops shorting volatility and ends the easy money being pumped into markets? Well, again, I think Powell and Fisher have just told you what will happen, but let’s continue.
Assessment: The Fed balance sheet is being reduced NOW, and Powell as chairman will only continue the process if not expedite it. Some people may argue that Powell is displaying an attitude that would suggest he is not on board with tightening policies. I disagree. I believe Powell will make the argument that the band-aid must be ripped off and that stock markets need some “tough love”.
Wrong. They are now Trump’s QEs, ZIRP, TARP, bailouts and massive debts.
It’s 2018. Deficits don’t matter.
Obama added more to the deficit than every other administration in American history COMBINED and ACCOUNTING for inflation.
Kinda like the homeless, Cindy Sheehan and the daily War on Terror death count - all mysteriously forgotten under the reign of obama.
“The problem is, is that the way Bush has done it over the last eight years is to take out a credit card from the Bank of China in the name of our children, driving up our national debt from $5 trillion dollars for the first 42 presidents — number 43 added $4 trillion dollars by his lonesome, so that we now have over $9 trillion dollars of debt that we are going to have to pay back — $30,000 for every man, woman and child.”
“That’s irresponsible. It’s unpatriotic.”
–Obama, July 3, 2008, at a campaign event in Fargo, N.D.
Obama added more to the deficit than every other administration in American history COMBINED and ACCOUNTING for inflation.
mostly a result of Bush’s tax cuts, Bush’s wars and the recession that started before Obama took office
Obama added more to the deficit than every other administration in American history…
I don’t disagree at all, except that his portion of the deficit rise was part of a pretty smooth parabolic progression since 1982. I think that party mudslinging is great fun, but if you aren’t focused on the real cause of a problem you won’t see a real solution.
A democrat super majority in the house, a democrat filibuster proof senate and eight years of obama.
obama could do nothing.
Everything was the fault of Bush.
And yet, Trump is in office for about a year and EVERYTHING wrong is his fault.
The logic of progressives and liberals.
And they can’t understand why they lost.
Republicans have had Power of the Purse 1995 - 2006, 2011-2018.
Bush appointed Bernanke (and Obama reappointed him.)
But otherwise yeah Republicans are angels and Democrats are demons.
Go get your nickel.
Screenshot of a tweet about President Oprah:
https://i.redd.it/ox2cliwgjf901.jpg
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/368276-rasmussen-poll-oprah-leads-trump-by-10-points
They said the same (being comfortably in the lead) about the screecher too, right up to election night.
If she runs, she will be raked over the coals for her hypocrisy surrounding Hollywood sexual abuse.
It took all of 5 minutes for the internet to find her picture with rapey Harvey Weinstein.
She knew. They all knew.
“She knew. They all knew.”
The casting couch has been around for decades.
Realtors are liars.
Taxing legal pot, raising taxes on cigarettes, new soda sugar taxes, etc.
It will not stop the bankruptcies.
Public unions are the the top all time political donors in American history. And they give 99% of their money to democrats.
Democrats, in turn, have controlled these cities 60+ years. They will never cut even one pension by a penny.
It is a demented feed back loop that has caused misery, ruin and bankruptcy wherever it is tried.
https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/
+++++
My Two Big Bets on the Pension Crisis
Nick Giambruno - September 30 2017 - Casey Research
In the US, unfunded public pension liabilities have surpassed $5 trillion. And that’s during an epic stock and bond market bubble.
The state comptroller of Illinois—the most financially troubled state thanks to its pension crisis—summed it up well. He said: “We can’t go bankrupt and we can’t print money. Taxpayers are going to have to pay this bill.”
Here’s an excerpt from a local Chicago news outlet. The telling headline reads “Cook County property tax bills cause outrage”:
“Our taxes increased fivefold,” said William Phillips of Rogers Park. “I was expecting it to go up maybe twice as much but not four to five times as much.”
“My tax bill increased almost $1,200 dollars,” said Cornes King of Chatham.
“More than tripled. The city’s piece more than tripled,” said Logan Square resident Janelle Squire.
Politicians don’t seem to realize (or care) that it’s mathematically impossible—and counterproductive—to try to solve the pension crisis by raising taxes.
Even if tax rates double in places like Illinois, it still won’t solve the problem. And that’s assuming the overall tax collected stays the same—which it wouldn’t.
Higher taxes would make more people leave the state and actually decrease the amount collected.
In many of the states that have or will legalize cannabis, the tax revenue will exceed that of alcohol and tobacco. That’s not something a cash-strapped state can turn away from.
In California, a recent study estimated that cannabis taxes would bring in at least $1.4 billion dollars each year.
Cannabis taxes will generate a lot of money. Still, legalizing and taxing marijuana won’t solve the multitrillion-dollar pension crisis.
Just for kicks I looked up Atlanta because I’ve heard for years how that’s supposed to be thriving, I think they filmed “The Firm” with Tom Cruise back in the early 1990’s.
Atlanta and Georgia have pretty much forever had Democratic mayors and governors.
2banana’s Rule.
Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy
See if you can figure out what is missing from the equation for Atlanta.
And I am talking hard core, the use of violence is OK, insane pensions, massive corruption, go on strike if one benefit gets cut kinda of thing…
Only 3 states have higher percentage of population African-American than Georgia.
Is that what you’re alluding to?
No, he’s pointing out that public unions are pretty much non-existent here.
Atlanta and Georgia have pretty much forever had Democratic mayors and governors.
GOP governors for the last 15 years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Governors_of_Georgia
That was Memphis.
You have been warned!
https://youtu.be/aYHDzrdXHEA
“You have been warned!”
Watch these, then you have been warned.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rv8pkRpqXbg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWiYphJUS7Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTSk5cbaZso
Twitter hates free speech:
Thttps://www.projectveritas.com/2018/01/11/undercover-video-twitter-engineers-to-ban-a-way-of-talking-through-shadow-banning-algorithms-to-censor-opposing-political-opinions/
Remove letter T from URL string for linky.
Note also Reddit shadowbans. Facebook censors (and in Europe will throw you in jail). YouTube demonetizes “offensive” content, example Ron Paul. Yes, Ron Paul.
All social media are globalists who hate free speech.
Going to Davos?
LOL
Drumpf will be.
Also remember that Lindsey Graham was the only sitting member of Congress to attend the Bilderburg Conference last year. How was he serving his constituents in South Carolina while there?
He wasn’t.
Wookin’ pa nub in all the wrong places.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jsk1A0tsSc
He finally got the invite. “They love me, they really love me!” The most dangerous place to be right now is between Trump and Davos.
Did he just let the secret out? The reason he and the likes were opposed to immigration was because there weren’t more people from Norway? This guy never fails to disappoint…
Trump, just visit your birth place, Queens, NY. That is a $hithole right there.
Have you ever been there?
Load up Air Force One, we’re ALL going to Davos! Trump takes vast entourage to billionaires’ Alpine get-together including Jared but NOT Ivanka
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is leading an economic delegation to Davos
Seven cabinet secretaries are jetting to the annual gathering
President Donald Trump also will attend the annual confab in Switzerland
Mnuchin said cabinet member ‘have no interest in going over there and rubbing elbows with anybody’
He said the trip is ‘all business’
He denied it was a ‘hangout for globalists
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5260293/Mnuchin-says-Davos-isnt-hangout-globalists.html
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5260293/Mnuchin-says-Davos-isnt-hangout-globalists.html#ixzz53viXdqia
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
No Sugar Tonight/New Mother Nature
From Wikipedia
According to Randy Bachman, the inspiration for the song arose after an incident when he was visiting California. He was walking down the street with a stack of records under his arm, when he saw three “tough-looking biker guys” approaching. He felt threatened and was looking for a way to cross the street onto the other sidewalk when a little car pulled up to the men. A woman about 5 feet tall got out of the car, shouting at one of them, asking where he’d been all day, that he had left her alone with the kids, didn’t take out the trash, and was down here watching the girls. The man was suddenly was alone and his buddies walked away. Chastened, he got in the car as the woman told him before pulling away: “And one more thing, you ain’t getting no sugar tonight”. The words stuck in Bachman’s memory.[2]
Guess Who - No Sugar Tonight, Mono 1970 RCA Victor(U.K.) 45 record.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB45lVg7WrU
Can anyone name a musician/band besides the Guess Who that came from Winnipeg?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Weakerthans
Is that it?
The question, Alex, was for “a musician/band”, not all of them.
Littleton, CO Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY On Rapidly Escalating Mortgage Defaults
https://www.movoto.com/littleton-co/market-trends/
Oh, dear god, every time I get pissed at Trump for doing or saying something, he redeems himself in spades:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-11/trump-why-do-we-want-people-these-shithole-countries-come-here
And now, the word “sh*thole” is trending. Lord love ya, Don. I would have given anything to see the looks on Lindsay Graham’s and Dick Durbin’s faces.
Lol, u beat me to it!
Secret is out. He wants blonde blue eyed immigrants from Norway. He must hate the darkies.
Oh, stop wetting the bed, fer cryin’ out loud.
Ben, do you still have that picture of natty ice dude?
Why? Are you also unhappy enough whites aren’t immigrating to this country?
Jeebus, Ben, where’s that pic? LOL!
Oh, noes, and they’re all blonde haired and blue eyed, no less!
D’ya have the one with the guy passed out on the bed?
That kid out front in second picture is priceless. I don’t even know how to stand like that. And the face! Sigh, I certainly had my share of awkward moments in my yout. Somewhere, someone has a pic of my first efforts at water skiiing.
Oh, gawd, my sides, yer killin’ me here!
“Oh, stop wetting the bed”
+1
Get enough of that from the MSM.
That sound you hear is the collective heads of sjws everywhere exploding. People fainting and reaching for the smelling salts.
Oh, dear god, every time I think I’m all laughed out, I think of Graham and Durbin and what their reaction might have been and my shoulders start shaking.
Yep.
So many folks in the countries Trump mentioned are desperate to come here. Maybe because their countries are, you know, shitholes? But heaven forbid he–or anyone else–say that out loud, LOL.
Jerry Seinfeld on immigration:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I_u5fvB15Q
At this point Trump knows how these things work. The SJWs get enraged and that rage binds the Trump’s supporters to him. Soon his people may just start spreading rumors about him. You may hear that he casually uses the n-word with his golfing buddies at Mar a Lago and later find that he started the rumor himself.
D’ya really think he said it, though? After all, it’s WaPo reporting it, and we know what a sh**hole of a rag it is. Who was the source? Trump’s been putting some pressure on Bezos lately, you know.
Whatever the case, I guess DACA is caca.
Jeff Bezos is the richest person in history
Jeff Bezos is now the richest person of all time. That should put an Amazon smile on his face.
The Amazon CEO’s net worth reached $105.1 billion Monday, according to Bloomberg’s billionaire tracker. That eclipses the record previously held by Microsoft founder Bill Gates.
Forbes, the other major tracker of the net worth of the world’s richest, put Bezos’ net worth at a mere $104.4 billion.
The majority of that net worth comes from the 78.9 million shares of Amazon stock he owns. Shares of Amazon (AMZN) climbed 1.4% Monday, adding about $1.4 billion to his net worth.
Shares of Amazon (AMZN) are up nearly 7% so far in this year after rising 56% in 2017.
http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/09/technology/jeff-bezos-richest/index.html
Ya, because the real difference between Scandinavia and Sub-Saharan Africa is the color of people’s skins.
Nothing to do with endemic violence, corruption, thievery, etc. that people carry with them even when they leave a country. It’s culture, dummy.
Karen you aren’t thinking like a grade schooler. Culture doesn’t enter into it. Everything must be kept superficial.
The people who subjected Irish immigrants to nasty, violent discrimination and whatnot in the 19th century would agree with you. Trump may not.
‘Secret is out. He wants blonde blue eyed immigrants from Norway. He must hate the darkies.”
The stupidity of liberals on display here yet again.
Although, unlike Trump, I wouldn’t cite Norwegians to make a point. Norwegians are too ingrained with Big Government mantras.
I might have went with Uruguayans instead, much to Overbanked’s chagrin. Uruguayans are not as steeped in nanny statism as the typical Norwegian.
President Trump suggested he’d prefer to see “more people from places like Norway” immigrate to the U.S., according to accounts of his now-infamous Oval Office conversation with congressional leaders Thursday on immigration reform. There’s one big problem with this: Norwegians apparently aren’t so enamored of life in America.
Immigration from the Scandinavian country has slowed to a trickle in the last several years. In 2016, only 404 Norwegians became lawful permanent residents, according to the Department of Homeland Security. By comparison, Norway had about 10,000 immigrants from North America in 2016, according to Statistics Norway.
That’s a far cry from the 1880 to 1889, when more than 185,000 Norwegians became lawful permanent U.S. residents, representing almost one-tenth of Norway’s population at the time.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-norway-immigration-theres-one-problem/
No surprise there.
The United States has become too socialistic to be attractive to the type of Scandinavians that come to our shores in the 1880s.
Norway is much more socialistic than the US, so if Norwegians wanted to go from a socialist democracy to more of capitalist democracy with fewer safety nets, they would still immigrate. The point is they are not choosing to do so, for whatever reason. But it seems that the most likely reason is because Norway is more prosperous than the US, they have less poverty, higher education, better healthcare system, and higher quality of living.
I love the US. My ancestors immigrated here from Denmark over a hundred and fifty years ago. But this love for the US does not preclude me from saying that the Scandinavian countries are, on the whole, doing things better than the US. If you think about it, it fits with DJT’s logic. Haitians, Salvadoreans, and African immigrants want to come to the US because it is better than where they came from. Americans want to go to Norway because it is better than where they are.
OneAmongMany,
you talk like socialism is economic. do you actually believe that socialism creates wealth? if so, how?
It depends on the definition of “socialism.” Norway, Denmark, and Sweden are not socialist in the sense that the means of production are owned by the community as a whole. In other words, Norway has private property ownership and wealth. Rather, Norway is a free market capitalist country with a comprehensive welfare state and strong collective bargaining rights. Norway reduces the cost of failure (e.g. if you try to start a business and it doesn’t work out, you won’t be destitute for the rest of your life). The result is that more people take chances. Norway has more millionaires per capita than any other country. Sweden has more start-ups than the US. They have taken some strong steps in deregulation where it makes sense.
“I think if you want to be an innovative country, you have to give people security so they dare to take risks,” Mikael Damberg, Sweden’s minister for enterprise and innovation, told me. Birk Nilson, for instance, knew that if his company fell apart, he’d still have health coverage; he also didn’t have any student-loan debt to pay off. “Even if you fail, even if you file for bankruptcy, Sweden has a well-known and ambitious safety net,” he told me. “So I do think that taking on risk is not as daunting in Sweden as it is in the U.S.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/09/sweden-startups/541413/
Google search: the myth of scandinavian utopia
It depends on the definition of “socialism.”
you mean like what the definition of ‘is’ is?
marx already defined it. it is simply the path to communism. that means socialism is on a scale. the more socialism, the less prosperity. the less socialism, the more prosperity. but you don’t think that’s true, do you?
stop dancing around the question and just answer whether or not you think socialism is economic. if you think it ever is, tell me how.
Karen, I’d be the first to admit that Scandinavian countries aren’t a utopia. My point was just to realize that more Americans want to go there than they want to come here. I don’t subscribe to a fanciful notion that everything they do is wonderful that we (Americans) do is wrong. But we can look at what is working and what is not working, both internationally and across different individual states within the US. We can emulate some policies if they would lead to good outcomes, or maybe we decide they would not apply to us for cultural reasons. It may be that there is some other causal factor other than the Nordic states’ strong social safety nets that is contributing to their good economies and high prosperity, but I am willing to bet that this is a good part of the puzzle. Certainly their taxes are higher.
“stop dancing around the question and just answer whether or not you think socialism is economic. if you think it ever is, tell me how.”
Public goods benefit by regulation and provision by the state. I think there are some things that are done better by the private market, and somethings that are done better by well-regulated government. Though not an exhaustive list, I think the state (government) should be the provider of national defense, education, infrastructure, and healthcare because it does so more efficiently than private laissez-faire capitalism and because the profit motive can create perverse incentives in many of these instances.
There are many different choices and incentive structures that can be put into place in the provision of government services that can increase efficiency, transparency, reduce corruption/waste, and provide broad societal benefits. So just saying “the government should do X” and “the private market should do Y” doesn’t really get into the details of what leads to an effective provision of a good or service.
TJ, now let me ask you a question or two. Do you think the Scandinavian countries (Sweden, Norway, and Denmark) are prosperous? Do you think they are socialist too?
Public goods benefit by regulation
no, we get the benefit of higher quality and cheaper goods in a free market, honed by competition. a producer can only benefit from regulation if they can capture the regulators to benefit themselves.
somethings that are done better by well-regulated government.
what things? (i’d give in on one thing even though i still believe it would be done better in a business.) “well-regulated”.. what does good regulation look like? you’ll know it when you see it, right?
I think the state (government) should be the provider of national defense, education, infrastructure, and healthcare because it does so more efficiently than private laissez-faire capitalism and because the profit motive can create perverse incentives in many of these instances.
read walter block’s “defending the indefensible”… oh wait, you’ve already read it, right? that’s ok, there’s a second edition you may have not gotten to yet.
There are many different choices and incentive structures
things like section 8, title 9, affirmative action, bussing, QE etc. etc., right?
that can be put into place in the provision of government services that can increase efficiency, transparency, reduce corruption/waste, and provide broad societal benefits.
are you channeling krugman again? sure sounds like it. government can’t do ANY of that stuff efficiently, especially ‘broad social benefits’.
So just saying “the government should do X” and “the private market should do Y” doesn’t really get into the details of what leads to an effective provision of a good or service.
and yet you never say exactly what leads to an ‘effective provision of a good or service’. government knows, right? like congressman johnson who feared guam was gonna capsize.
yeah, we’ll just let govie handle it like it did ’shovel ready jobs’, solyndra, fisker and on and on. oh wait! you’ll bring up saving the auto companies! except it was really the unions that were saved. the auto companies are now shells of what would have been if they had went bust and sold their assets for pennies on the dollar. new companies with better tech could have been making cheaper, higher quality autos.
Do you think the Scandinavian countries (Sweden, Norway, and Denmark) are prosperous?
compared to what? have they ever had to totally provide for their own defense? did you really read Karen’s link?
Do you think they are socialist too?
i think borg left sweden because his taxes were too high. sweden begged him to come back and started lowering their taxes. but it looks like the liberals have finished off sweden anyway by inviting the ‘refugees’ in. now i hear they’re the rape capital of the world.
regardless, socialism is on a scale, and they don’t have much economic freedom. on the freedom list..
sweden: 27
norway: 25
denmark: 15
as for your numbers, i don’t really trust the people that put them out anymore. just like the media that used to have real news, they’ve been corrupted.
so if you want to convince people of what you say, you’ll have to use more logic than numbers that can be easily fudged.
all you ever do on the economic front is quote krugmanites and leftist websites.
no, we get the benefit of higher quality and cheaper goods in a free market, honed by competition.
When I refer to “public goods”, it is in the canonical economic usage of the term, as in a true “public good”. I am not referring to consumer goods that would strictly be purchased in a retail store on online.
From Wikipedia: “Public goods include fresh air, knowledge, official statistics, national security, common language(s), flood control systems, lighthouses, street lighting, and Wikipedia itself. Public goods that are available everywhere are sometimes referred to as global public goods.[2] There is an important conceptual difference between the sense of “a” public good, or public “goods” in economics, and the more generalized idea of “the public good” (or common good, or public interest), “a shorthand signal for shared benefit at a societal level”.
The distinction between “public good” and “common good” becomes nuanced. For instance, it is a common good to have an educated populace, although going to college chiefly benefits the individual enrolled. However, there are knock-on public benefits that accrue by having a highly educated workforce in the form of greater social capital, higher innovation, better health, etc. So higher education is a somewhat of a common good with aspects that make it a public good as well.
read walter block’s “defending the indefensible”
I will have to put that one on my reading list. I have not read it. It looks like it has some thought-provoking ideas.
things like section 8, title 9, affirmative action, bussing, QE etc. etc., right?
I’m more thinking along the lines of how contracts for government infrastructure projects get doled out. In other words, the request for proposals should be fair and transparent and there should be a review system such that the low-cost bidder (and high quality) wins and not some contractor with cozy connections to lawmakers get the deals. I’m also thinking along the lines of Germany’s healthcare system which is a universal multi-payer system. The individual funds are private, non-profit but they all compete for citizens healthcare dollars. There is choice and competition, but everyone is insured and the regulations ensure that a lot of the bloat and waste that we see in the US system is eliminated.
yet you never say exactly what leads to an ‘effective provision of a good or service’.
An effective provision of a good or service is one that is provided at the lowest cost possible to the widest possible audience. In the case of public goods and common goods, very frequently the private market will not provide the good at all or provide it in a way that is detrimental to the societal good. An example is in healthcare. When the incentive is to maximize profit, often times the preventative, low-cost interventions are neglected in favor or more screens, exams, and costly surgeries, or, as Elizabeth Rosenthal would say “under the current system, it’s far more lucrative to provide a lifetime of treatments than a cure.”
I’m going to skip the Solyndra, Fisker, auto bailouts, Guam senator, etc. because I don’t consider those germane to the discussion at hand. I didn’t bring them up and I hardly see how they apply to the original theme of the post which is that Norwegians don’t really want to come to the US because they are doing pretty good. These issues seem like your personal gripes that you have that you seem want to argue with someone about.
if you want to convince people of what you say, you’ll have to use more logic than numbers that can be easily fudged.
Gross national income is a pretty reliable indicator of prosperity if you ask me. It is hard to fudge this number. You can try to logically assert that a specific country’s economic structure is superior, but the proof is in the pudding. Norway exceeds the US here and in many other economic indicators from a variety of sources. But it kind of makes sense right? I mean, DJT did claim that the US should be importing more Scandinavians while dissing the Haitians, Salvadoreans, and Africans.
all you ever do on the economic front is quote krugmanites and leftist websites.
I quote from a wide variety of sites and ideologies. I linked to a Breitbart article the other day regarding Saipan birth tourism for Chinese immigrants. You seem to jump to the conclusion that anything that doesn’t fit your narrative or challenges your worldview is “Krugmanite” or is “leftist.”
As far as this mysterious freedom index, what is the source you are referencing? If anything, this strikes me as supremely subjective. The best I can see that you might be referring to would be the Cato report here:
https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/human-freedom-index-files/human-freedom-index-2016-update-3.pdf
Denmark would be #5, Norway #13, and Sweden #15. But this is just some think tanks subjective analysis (albeit a pretty decent one though) about metrics that they think give a picture of which countries are the most free. If you change the criteria, you will get different rankings.
When I refer to “public goods”, it is in the canonical economic usage of the term, as in a true “public good”. I am not referring to consumer goods that would strictly be purchased in a retail store on online.
yes, i was careless. but in part it was because i told you a long time ago that i wasn’t going to discussion pollution. i wasn’t expecting to be lead back there again.
in my previous post i said there was something i’d ‘give in on’, and pollution regs was it. but it’s an area that can be argued endlessly. air and water can be made as pure as you can AFFORD to make them. it will always be a trade-off between expense and quality.
the bigger point is that the wealthier a country is, the more it can devote to water and air quality. which bring us back to.. how does socialism create wealth?
i can explain how wealth is created, but socialists can’t. because if they did, it would undermine their own position.
So higher education is a somewhat of a common good with aspects that make it a public good as well.
these days ‘education’, higher or otherwise, is really socialist indoctrination. the things you talk about wanting or needing, amount to a higher standard of living. and a higher standard of living is what happens in a free and prospering nation. socialism will incrementally lower the standard of living.
I will have to put that one on my reading list. I have not read it. It looks like it has some thought-provoking ideas.
i do not expect you to really read it. but if you did, and even if you disagreed with all his ideas, he would still give you a valuable different perspective.
I’m more thinking along the lines of how contracts for government infrastructure projects get doled out.
you’re talking about corruption. and it only happens through government power that shouldn’t be there in the first place. remove meddling government power and there is no influence to sell or buy.
The individual funds are private, non-profit but they all compete for citizens healthcare dollars.
it still makes for higher prices. just get all governments out regulating health care and prices would fall dramatically. people would be able to afford it again.
throughout this whole discussion you’ve only talked about public ‘goods’. i could argue that they really aren’t goods at all. but even if they are, they still depend on created wealth. and the point is that these socialist policies don’t create wealth, they consume it.
so i’ll ask you again, please name one, just one socialist policy that creates wealth. or can you finally admit that there is no part of socialism that creates wealth?
I’m going to skip the Solyndra, Fisker, auto bailouts, Guam senator, etc. because I don’t consider those germane to the discussion at hand.
i was making the point that government isn’t very competent at providing goods and most of the politicians are imbeciles.
DJT did claim that the US should be importing more Scandinavians while dissing the Haitians, Salvadoreans, and Africans.
maybe we should stop ‘importing’ everyone?
from 1921 to 1965 we had no immigration and we seemed to do pretty well.
You seem to jump to the conclusion that anything that doesn’t fit your narrative or challenges your worldview is “Krugmanite” or is “leftist.”
those amongst a few others such as communism and ‘fair’ trade.
i just grabbed the first source i googled that listed countries by ‘economic’ freedom. it was from wiki.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_economic_freedom
but this is why don’t like stats anymore. you can always find a one stat to counter another. plus, as i said, i don’t trust the people putting them together either. most of the time a logical argument is more convincing than the numbers (these days).
so if you don’t want to accept these numbers it won’t bother me much. and no, i wouldn’t accept gross national income as bedrock truth either. government has become infested with leftists that have proven they’ll happily lie if it serves them. the msm is the same way. i don’t listen to them because they’re nearly all liars. and even just one deliberate lie makes one wholly untrustworthy.
I wouldn’t accept gross national income as bedrock truth either.
The Index of Economic freedom is what you linked to in the Wikipedia article. It’s source is the Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal. These typically are right-leaning, conservative sources, so there is bias in the criteria that they select. Look at what criteria they select:
Rule of Law, Government Size, Regulatory Efficiency, and Open Markets.
This is the Cato’s version has a Libertarian bias (the one that I linked to above). Here are it’s criteria:
Rule of Law
Security and Safety
Movement
Religion
Association, Assembly, and Civil Society
Expression
Relationships
Size of Government
Legal Systems and Property Rights
Access to Sound Money
Freedom to Trade Internationally
Regulation of Credit, Labor, and Business
My point still stands: any subjective criteria of “freedom” is dependent on the criteria that are selected. To go even further, what is the proxy for “Rule of Law” or “relationships.” For example, in the Cato institutes, they give high marks for countries that support same-sex marriage rights. I happen to agree with this, but I acknowledge a rather arbitrary choice. It would be easy for me to concoct a scenario where some conservative-leaning, anti-LGBT think tank gave a country low marks on their relationship metric for supporting LGBT laws because they undermine the traditional family.
I hope you can see the difference between the relative value of subjective metrics like freedom index or the NRA’s scorecard of how gun-friendly a politician is vs. a solid, non-subjective statistic like GDP or gross national income (GNI). I am not saying that GNI is the only measurement of prosperity, but it is a vastly different from something like a subjective think tank’s economic freedom index.
These typically are right-leaning, conservative sources
i’d tend to trust them even more then. on the political spectrum i’m all the way on the right. you’d call me a ‘right-wing extremist’.
and as i told you before, you don’t have to accept the numbers. it won’t bother me one way or another.
is really socialist indoctrination. the things you talk about wanting or needing, amount to a higher standard of living.
One thing I want to highlight is that if you talk about higher standard of living being the yardstick for how well an economy is functioning, you need to put forward some objective way of measuring this. I’ve already pointed out the fallacy of relying on concocted indices full of subjective criteria. More than anything, these indices speak to what is important to the organization that construct them. But hard economic data like gross national income is really not prone to manipulation in the same way, nor to the same degree.
By the way, I am not saying that GNI/GDP is the be-all end-all of a country’s prosperity. President Kennedy laid out the shortcomings of GDP almost 50 years ago:
Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials.
It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.
And it can tell us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/may/24/robert-kennedy-gdp
As an aside, GNI is much more reliable than GDP at an individual level because GNI counts only the income that accrues to residents of the country. Ireland, for instance has about a 25% difference between GDP and GNI, meaning that a lot of what they produce goes to foreign owners of capital.
If you want to include public goods or some sort of subjective value for well-being then you could look at various subjective measurements and add them to the mix, which is what is done in the World Happiness Report and OECD Quality of Life index. It is also important to realize measure prosperity broadly which is why I constantly return to income inequality. For instance, many south American nations have pockets of great prosperity that are reserved for a small sliver, maybe 5-10%, of the population, which makes it more like an oligarchy. There are Brazilians that are far wealthier than almost all Americans, but the average Brazilian is not better off than the average American. I like to look at the American in the bottom 20% compared to the Brazilian in the bottom 20% because generally if the bottom 20% is doing well then that means that the prosperity is broadly distributed and not reserved for a select few.
One thing I want to highlight is that if you talk about higher standard of living being the yardstick for how well an economy is functioning, you need to put forward some objective way of measuring this.
it’s like porn. you’ll know it when you see it.
rising discretionary income is nice, but isn’t enough. we need the freedom to also spend as we choose, and travel freely in our country. standard of living also depends on a low crime rate. and i believe many of these numbers are now being fudged. i’ll tell you right now i felt much less free under obama’s thumb than i do under trump. yes, the standard of living was lower under obama the traitor.
It would be easy for me to concoct a scenario where some conservative-leaning, anti-LGBT think tank gave a country low marks on their relationship metric for supporting LGBT laws because they undermine the traditional family.
now you’re arguing about social ‘conservatism’. sorry, but i’m not arguing for anything ’social’. even the ’social studies’ that i was forced to take in grade school is a pile of crap. there’s no such thing as a ’social’ science. it’s all leftist BS.
i’ll tell you right now i felt much less free
That is basically the epitome of subjectivity. As long as we are talking about “feelings” we don’t have to deal with facts, numbers, and figures. I’m fine if you want to split hairs about the nuances of metrics and quibble with methodology, but the facts are the facts. Feelings, on the other hand, are not a good measurement of prosperity. It’s funny how when DJT was running the good employment numbers and the stock market increases that took place under Obama were just “fake news” and phony stats. But as soon as he was elected and they still continued to go up, he completely reversed course, owned them and took credit for their continued increase (as if he deserved any credit for this).
Your focus on crime is a good one and I would agree with that. That is a hard metric. Discretionary income is great too, we would agree there. But when you start talking about feelings, that is merely just subjectivity. I don’t discount feelings per se as the Michigan Consumer Confidence survey tells us a lot about the state of the economy. But you have to at least make an effort to distill subjective feelings into an objective-like metric. But fundamentally focusing on feelings as opposed to something concrete (like GNI) is to reverse the mechanism of causality. People feel all sorts of things for many reasons.
The funny thing about freedom is it’s semantics. The right to work states will talk about busting unions and make high claims to “freedom” in their appeals. The pro-labor folks will flip it on them and say, “Sure, you have the ‘right to work’ for less.” So yeah, freedom to be poor is a great freedom to have. Freedom to have most of the economic gain accrue to the wealthy is also another way of seeing freedom. Metrics matter, feelings, not so much.
That is basically the epitome of subjectivity.
of course it is. i was just telling you what it felt like for ME.
The pro-labor folks will flip it on them and say, “Sure, you have the ‘right to work’ for less.”
reductio ad absurdum.
you picked out part of one sentence in one paragraph that was only used to support a point, and ran with it. you tried to make it sound like it was my entire point. on top of that you can’t prove it was wrong because anyone can see that i was just telling you how i FELT.
you ignored all the rest. and you didn’t even answer two of my prior posts.
in addition, i’ve asked you three times if you can give me just one example of a socialist policy that creates wealth. you never answer and that tells me that you don’t know of one.
you didn’t even answer two of my prior post. i’ve asked you three times if you can give me just one example of a socialist policy that creates wealth.
I’ve already done that, several times. But maybe it wasn’t clear, so let me do it again: healthcare, education, infrastructure, national defense, and all manner of public goods/common goods that are unlikely to be provided, or undersupplied, by the market. I ascribe to a government that meets Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. The bare necessities that people need are food, safety, security, clothing, and housing. The market should provide these broadly, efficiently, and at a price point for all citizens. Private charities can fill in gaps. But where needs are still unmet, government welfare safety nets should step it. Everyone in this country deserves to have at least the level of needs met that we would give a prisoner (food, healthcare, shelter, clothing, safety).
If the private market can’t or won’t provide a good or service efficiently (or under produces it), the state should step in. This can be through subsidies, regulations, etc. If there are negative externalities that are not captured well in a pure market system, carrots and sticks can be used with well-designed regulation to try to approximate a market structure.
My initial comment on this thread had to do with whether Norwegians wanted to come to the US. Despite DJT’s invitation wanting more “socialist Scandinavians”, the immigration stats show that Americans want to go to Norway, not the other way around. I pointed out that this is likely due to Scandinavians having an economic situation and quality of life was ostensibly better than what they have here in the US. No, it’s not a utopia, but still objectively better as far as prosperity is concerned.
You’re hijacking this thread (and other comments) and turning it into a referendum on socialism vs. capitalism debate. I asked you initially if you believed Norway was a socialist country and the best I can gather is that you think it is moderately socialist (”Socialism is on a scale”). I pointed out that they have private ownership of capital, wealth, and individual ownership of the means of production. A prosperous society has “rules and schools” (education and regulation). They have more social welfare institutions (e.g. safety nets) than we do and they pay higher taxes.
Logically, if you are going to say the Scandinavian countries are more socialist than the United States are, and if you believe they are more prosperous (they are), then you would have to try to explain why they are more prosperous. A reasonable explanation would be that they have stronger social safety nets, or to put it in your terms, “are more socialist.”
healthcare, education, infrastructure, national defense, and all manner of public goods/common goods that are unlikely to be provided, or undersupplied, by the market.
those are benefits, not goods. and of course they’re not supplied by the market. try selling them on the market. you can’t because you can’t make money off them.
but then this is what you leftists do. you try to twist things like what the word ‘liberal’ used to mean. or ‘progressive’. or ’subsidy’. or in this case, ‘goods’.
But where needs are still unmet, government welfare safety nets should step it.
no, we should slowly unwind them and eliminate them. we could, by going back from government intervention, become so prosperous that private charity could take care of everyone in true need.
If there are negative externalities that are not captured well in a pure market system, carrots and sticks can be used with well-designed regulation to try to approximate a market structure.
more and more people are becoming wise to your big government pablum and are rejecting it.
immigration stats show that Americans want to go to Norway, not the other way around.
big deal, let them go. most will soon want to come back. there will some young british girls that wanted to go to syria and join ISIS too. in less than a week they wanted to come back after being raped multiple times. if memory serves, they were killed. people want all kinds of stupid things. some even want socialism. the really stupid ones even think it’s economic.
No, it’s not a utopia, but still objectively better as far as prosperity is concerned.
and yet you’re still here when the prosperity is over there..
You’re hijacking this thread
i see you don’t know what hijacking is either. but what else could i expect from someone who thinks that tax breaks are ’subsidies’?
I can gather is that you think it is moderately socialist
close. i’d guess 40-50% socialist. but that’s just a ‘feeling’.
A prosperous society has “rules and schools” (education and regulation).
the highest quality education is private, not public. and in the good ole USA, most of it is indoctrination these days. and i’m not an anarchist, i know certain rules and regs are needed. but we are way, way over regulated. in some places a kid can’t even open a lemonade stand without getting a fine.
Logically, if you are going to say the Scandinavian countries are more socialist than the United States are, and if you believe they are more prosperous (they are), then you would have to try to explain why they are more prosperous.
others alreayd have..
Supporters of Big Government and the nanny state everywhere have for decades glorified the imagined success of Scandinavia’s massive welfare states, citing Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland as alleged proof that drastic restrictions on economic liberty can co-exist with prosperity. In the new book Scandinavian Unexceptionalism: Culture, Markets and the Failure of Third-Way Socialism, however, academic Nima Sanandaji, Ph.D., makes an iron-clad case showing that the Nordic nations’ relative success predates the welfare state. Indeed, the region actually provides bountiful evidence of the benefits of free markets and economic freedom, and of the harm wrought by Big Government.
can’t fit it all in or the post would be too long.
A reasonable explanation would be that they have stronger social safety nets, or to put it in your terms, “are more socialist.”
you’re simply wrong again krugmanite. the more socialism, the less wealth. and if all else is equal, the less wealth, the lower the standard of living.
you always greatly underestimate the importance of economic freedom.
those are benefits, not goods. and of course they’re not supplied by the market. try selling them on the market. you can’t because you can’t make money off them.
While things like education and healthcare are not tangible goods like a cellphone, a vehicle, clothes, or an ice cream cone, but they are goods and there is a market for them. Maybe if I referred to them as goods and services that would help you get over your semantic hangup. I’m an RN, my wife is a teacher, and she tutors on the side. I provide lifesaving care to people who are critically ill or close to death. We are both paid for our efforts, there is a market for these things you know, just like there is a market for building roads, airports, rail, etc. PBS news hour ran a story about the rampant violence in many states of Mexico. The malls and shopping centers are hiring out their own private defense (Jobamex Seguridad Privada) so tourism doesn’t suffer. Certainly all the things I listed above are goods and services. The benefit is that these goods and services exist and make the lives of those who consumer them better. The debate how they should be provisioned (public, private, or some mix of the two).
private charity could take care of everyone in true need.
I’m all for private charities, service, and volunteerism. But there is no way that private efforts are going to come close to replacing the very necessary government aid provided by safety nets to those truly in need. It would be like bringing a water gun to a blazing house fire. This is just starry-eyed idealism and wishful thinking. The organization and scale of the social problems are such that it will take government to tackle these. Perhaps the most effective private organization in the US is Catholic Community Services, but even their efforts are a drop in the bucket in comparison to those of federal, state, and local government. After hurricanes in Florida and Texas, my church, along with many others, was involved in helping with cleanup efforts. But it’s not like these private efforts mean that FEMA is no longer needed.
If you’re for scaling back the entitlement programs, it looks like Paul Ryan may take a crack at it. Last time he tried in 2005 it handed the GOP the worst loss in a long time. From my view, the entitlement programs need to be reformed, not ended. Lifting the cap on social security contributions would be a good start. Maybe means testing as well. Social security disability is what is being abused the most. The red states have used SSDI has long term unemployment because of the rampant rural poverty, despair, lack of jobs, and drugs.
what else could i expect from someone who thinks that tax breaks are ’subsidies’?
There you go again veering off into another tangent. Since you wont let this go, here is what a subsidy is from Wikipedia:
Further on:
Tax breaks are often considered to be a subsidy. Like other subsidies, they distort the economy; but tax breaks are also less transparent, and are difficult to undo.
A tax break that is given to one company, but not another is an indirect subsidy. This means that the government is giving preferential treatment to a specific type of enterprise, or subsidizing the goods and services it produces. It may not be government giving money directly (e.g. a direct subsidy), but it is still a form of support. So yes, the mortgage interest deduction (MID) is a subsidy since renters do not get this deduction and government is giving implicit support to homeowners vs renters. The child tax credit is a subsidy as well, since unmarried single people do not get it (it subsidizes having children). If you want to have some narrow usage of subsidy and chide people for using subsidy differently than you use it, go right ahead. But you risk coming off as ignorant or smug, or both.
the highest quality education is private, not public.
If we are talking about the Ivy Leagues, yes, but if we’re talking about most other for-profit colleges, absolutely not. For-profit colleges have absolutely screwed over thousands (e.g. ITT, Stephen Henager, Corinthian Colleges, or the worst of all, Trump University).
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/watch-at-for-profit-colleges-large-loans-and-broken-promises/
close. i’d guess 40-50% socialist. but that’s just a ‘feeling’.
Touché.
A reasonable explanation would be that they have stronger social safety nets, or to put it in your terms, “are more socialist.”
and yet you’re still here when the prosperity is over there..
Actually, my wife and I are trying to move to Canada. I’ve lived there for two years and loved it. It’s not easy to move because of family ties here, but since I speak French I get extra points in Canada’s point system (and I have an in-demand profession). We would like to move to Denmark, but it takes time to coordinate such a move overseas.
you’re simply wrong again krugmanite. the more socialism, the less wealth. and if all else is equal, the less wealth, the lower the standard of living. you always greatly underestimate the importance of economic freedom.
I read the posted critique of Scandinavia in general. There are some useful points and some I would critique, but I lack the space here. Here is a good counterpoint if you are interested:
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/08/national-review-williamson-bernie-sanders-sweden/
I’ll summarize briefly: Scandinavia’s social net is not tied to ethnic homogeneity, rather it is linked to the presence of a strong labor movement (something that does not exist the US two-party system). Any good social safety net must iterate and refine itself if it is getting abused or if it is promoting the wrong type of behavior. In essence, “don’t end it, mend it” should be our mantra.
A good example of this was when Germany massively reformed its welfare system because it discouraged work, but they still have a very generous safety net that works a lot better (my stepsister and stepbrother live in Berlin):
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/09/23/140707524/germanys-painful-unemployment-fix
you’re simply wrong again krugmanite. the more socialism, the less wealth. and if all else is equal, the less wealth, the lower the standard of living. you always greatly underestimate the importance of economic freedom.
I don’t think I do. I think you put too much faith in the free market and trying to fit everything into a framework that isn’t suited for every situation. Shopping a for a cell phone is a fundamentally different type of economic transaction than having a heart attack. You can browse features and take your time and comparison shop for a simple consumer device. When you are having a heart attack, you call 911 and show up at the hospital. You are relying on expertise of healthcare providers and you don’t have the luxury of being able to make comparisons. You have to trust the system, the EMS, the regs for credentialing MDs and RNs and the whole system just has to work. You want strong regulation and protections so you can’t get taken advantage of financially when you are in a life-threatening situation. I could cite numerous situations like that require some critical thinking rather than simplistic solutions from Mises.org.
I find it odd that persist in calling me a Krugmanite/liberal/leftist, as if this was some sort of insult. The funny thing is that I hardly ever read PK, I think I’ve maybe posted one interesting article by PK. Don’t make the mistake of thinking that because I read one article that I some sort of PK acolyte. You referred to yourself as a far right. I try not to box myself into a narrow ideological framework. There are valuable principles that can be found across the political spectrum. I try not to shut myself off from a good idea, no matter where it comes from, even if it comes from (gasp!) Paul Krugman.
The fact that you persist in returning to the same old tired tropes of big government, deregulation, liberalism, leftist, and economic freedom make you come off a non-critical thinker. Don’t get me wrong, I think it is absolutely fine to ardently have your libertarian/conservative views. I might have sounded a little like you the first time I read Atlas Shrugged from cover to cover or The Road to Serfdom. Hayek and Rand have great ideas. Many libertarians do, but at some point you realize that this simplistic way of viewing the world just doesn’t work.
You might not believe it, but we overlap in some areas. Rather than decrying “big government”, point to specific government policies that aren’t working and say what you would do to fix it (or if you would get rid of it). Don’t just use platitudes like “we need to get rid of regulation.” Identify smart regulation we could implement or regulation that is overly complicated or having unintended consequences and go there. In other words, don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.
I think you put too much faith in the free market
and i don’t think you put enough faith in it.
and trying to fit everything into a framework that isn’t suited for every situation.
just about everything CAN be handled by a free market. walter block thinks it all can.
Shopping a for a cell phone is a fundamentally different type of economic transaction than having a heart attack.
you can thank government intervention in health care for the high cost of treating heart attacks (and everything else).
You referred to yourself as a far right.
that’s because it’s where political spectrum tests put me. i wasn’t choosing to be anything. and my guess is that they try to be objective.
Many libertarians do [have great ideas], but at some point you realize that this simplistic way of viewing the world just doesn’t work.
i was thinking the same thing about socialism/communism. it just doesn’t work.
I find it odd that persist in calling me a Krugmanite/liberal/leftist, as if this was some sort of insult.
for people that like economic freedom, it is.
and i find your persistent faith in managed economies odd. especially after seeing the myth of the scandinavian ’success’ debunked again and again.
The fact that you persist in returning to the same old tired tropes of big government, deregulation, liberalism, leftist, and economic freedom make you come off a non-critical thinker.
trying to make a simple matter complex doesn’t make one a critical thinker. most of the time it just indicates one doesn’t know what the fundamental issue is.
Don’t just use platitudes like “we need to get rid of regulation.” Identify smart regulation we could implement or regulation that is overly complicated or having unintended consequences and go there.
ok, here’s an example off the top of my head.
if taxpayers weren’t on the hook for bank gambling type behavior that will inevitably result in big losses, there’d be no need for regulation like glass-steagall. but since they are on the hook, regulation is needed. when taxpayers are on the hook it creates a moral hazard that must be addressed.
you can thank government intervention in health care for the high cost of treating heart attacks (and everything else).
Not even close. The US is the only major OECD country that doesn’t have universal healthcare and we spend WAY more than any other of the so-called “socialized medicine countries” as % of GDP that provide universal healthcare and we have WORSE outcomes. The out-of-the-box response is that “well, that’s because we’re not a pure free market medical system.” Okay, fine, but that doesn’t explain how systems who are clearly much more state-run than ours have vastly better systems in terms of cost and quality. The UK is vastly different from Canada, Germany, or Singapore, but all spend considerably less on healthcare than we do and have better outcomes. Take a look:
http://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/blog_healthcare_percent_gdp_1995_2014.gif
The problem is that the data doesn’t fit neatly into your paradigm of “complete free market = always good” “government involvement = always bad.” The truth is more nuanced. Some government involvement is detrimental, some beneficial. Large corporations can be just as destructive and abusive (more so in some cases) as big government. The truth is that even in the US, the most cost effective care is provided by Medicare and Medicaid. Private insurance is not cost effective and is the source of the most waste and abuse. The number one cause of bankruptcy and financial ruin in the US is medical expenses. This literally never happens in the Scandinavian countries. And, since higher ed is paid for there, there is not the crushing debt load that many students in the US have which will haunt them for the rest of their lives.
seeing the myth of the scandinavian ’success’ debunked again and again.
Sorry, no. Doing a quick Google search and linking to something that purports to refute the Scandinavian exceptionalism does not refute the facts of their prosperity. They have higher incomes as a society, there is less income inequality, less poverty, free higher education, universal health care, childcare, and better health. All of the points made in the critique you pointed two are tenuous at best. For instance, pointing out that Swedes and Finns who move to the US from Scandinavia is a classic case of selection bias. Even the critique that the unique cultural traits of the Scandinavian countries predate the generous welfare state may very well be accurate, but it doesn’t refute the social benefits that come to the citizens in these countries because these countries have continued to maintain their high prosperity with these structures in place. It is true that cracks in the welfare state did show up in the 80s and there needs to be reforms. A safety net shouldn’t encourage sloth and laziness, which is exactly what Germany’s welfare reforms did. The Scandinavian countries have had to tweak their programs too. No one is advocating creating social welfare state where indolence is encouraged and living off the state because a lifestyle choice. When a safety net ceases to become a safety net, then it’s time to tweak it. Notice how I said in my previous comments that the US safety net should provide roughly the same benefits that we give to prisoners?
Also to say that these Scandinavian countries growth less than they would have is empirically untestable, but it flies in the face of what is observed in all other advanced countries: economic laggards (like China and India) have faster growth rates than economic leaders. You can lookup economic convergence or “the catch-up effect” to read more on this.
One other thing I should add, if you are a true Libertarian, than you should at least be familiar with the concept of “universal basic income”:
https://www.cato-unbound.org/2014/08/04/matt-zwolinski/pragmatic-libertarian-case-basic-income-guarantee
I am not necessarily in favor of the universal basic income (there are some intriguing ideas, but it seems like it could be disastrous if not implemented well). I do think the state should ensure that universal basic needs are met, first through the market, then through private charity, then through the state. If the UBI works better than other safety nets, I would support that. But essentially the Scandinavian countries’ social safety net works very well.
Okay, fine, but that doesn’t explain how systems who are clearly much more state-run than ours have vastly better systems in terms of cost and quality.
can’t happen krugmanite. no matter how much your leftist masters massage the numbers for you.
Large corporations can be just as destructive and abusive (more so in some cases) as big government.
not unless they’ve captured unconstitutional power. corporations are toothless without government.
The number one cause of bankruptcy and financial ruin in the US is medical expenses.
once again because government interferes with the market. in the 50s and early 60 people could afford to go to the doctor unless they had cancer. and back then, catastrophic coverage was cheap.
This literally never happens in the Scandinavian countries.
and they pay a very high price for it. the myth debunkers have it right. let’s see how they look in another 10-15 years.
crushing debt load that many students in the US have which will haunt them for the rest of their lives.
again thanks to government backed student loans that have pushed prices into the stratosphere.
Doing a quick Google search and linking to something that purports to refute the Scandinavian exceptionalism does not refute the facts of their prosperity.
and saying crap like this does nothing to prove them wrong.
They have higher incomes as a society, there is less income inequality, less poverty, free higher education, universal health care, childcare, and better health.
they’re in decline. they’re burning the wealth that they used to have. let’s see how they look after a decade or so.
these countries have continued to maintain their high prosperity with these structures in place.
no, they’re burning through their wealth.
No one is advocating creating social welfare state where indolence is encouraged and living off the state because a lifestyle choice.
they don’t know they’re doing it but they are.
Notice how I said in my previous comments that the US safety net should provide roughly the same benefits that we give to prisoners?
we spend way too much on prisoners also.
economic laggards (like China and India) have faster growth rates than economic leaders.
do you trust china’s numbers too? i don’t know the truth of their claims, but i do know that the further they take free market capitalism, the stronger they will become.
One other thing I should add, if you are a true Libertarian
i don’t like putting myself ‘into a box’. i never claimed i was a libertarian anyway. as a matter fact i’ve denied it as there are too many ‘flavors’ to choose from.
i only claim to be a conservative that’s all the way to the right. and i only say that because that’s where the political spectrum tests say that i am.
I do think the state should ensure that universal basic needs are met
and what do you think would happen to the price of basic necessities if that were to happen?
sorry for calling you ‘krumanite’ again. i shouldn’t have done it.
https://youtu.be/azTI03MuEKk
+1 The guy certainly has some stones in his pants.
Here’s one of the great ironies: We always hear people say “diversity is our strength” which doesn’t seem to hold true anywhere in the rest of the world. However, it actually is: because we have diverse groups here which don’t have high empathy for those of other tribes/ethnicities here, we have avoided going heavily socialist like many European ethno-states, and that has unexpectedly forced us to maintain some semblance of personal and economic individual responsibility which has enhanced the American economic and cultural engine.
In a Scandinavian country, it’s very homogeneous - it’s all “us”, one tribe. So in Norway, they’re willing to give even the most brutal criminals (e.g. Breivik) dorm rooms and very light sentences, and they’re willing to pay a very large tax burden to the state for redistribution to the rest of the common tribe. It’s never been that way here, originally with different (white) ethnicities, and today with different non-white ethnicities.
I’ve always seen “Diversity is our strength” being one of those meaningless, even destructive, platitudes spouted by those who are not interested in the welfare of America. But, it actually is our strength, but for a wholly different reason than the platitude-spouters would ever have dreamed.
‘My colleague Kausha Luna recently reported on Mexican officials’ reaction to the Trump administration’s decision to wind down the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. Luna quotes the Mexican Ministry of Public Education as saying that so-called “Dreamers” will be “welcomed with open arms”, and that they will be integrated into the Mexican educational system at all levels, including at post-secondary universities.’
‘Yet at the same time, Videgaray, President Enrique Pena-Nieto (who said “this is the other Mexico” while visiting Los Angeles recently), and other top Mexican officials are vigorously lobbying the U.S. Congress to pass legislation granting amnesty to these “Dreamers” and expeditiously send it to President Trump for signature.’
‘So just how serious is Mexico about its willingness to reintegrate the percentage of the “Dreamer” population that is Mexican (about three-quarters of all DACA recipients) back into its society?’
‘Is this just one of those games by politicians, Mexican politicians in this case, to play the “optics and atmospherics” of public opinion in order to appear sympathetic while at the same doing all they can to ensure that they don’t, in fact, need to do anything to accommodate “Dreamers”?’
https://cis.org/Cadman/Mexico-Ready-Welcome-Dreamers-or-It
Also, it’s a combination of factors that make a society prosperous, and in America’s case, a cultural hegemon. It’s the temperament, intelligence and values of the population that drive its trajectory.
The Russians are smart. But work is not celebrated in their culture. I came across this tidbit recently, in an Economist article titled “The Siberian Bitcoin Rush”: “The Russian man doesn’t love to work, he needs free money,” he [Russian miner] says, invoking “Wish Upon a Pike”, a classic Russian fairy tale about a lazy villager who catches a magic fish that grants his wishes. “This is a kind of pike that does everything for you: it produces money, and heats your home too.”
In America, there’s the Protestant work ethic, there’s perceived to be some nobility in all work (although we want work to be as lucrative and meaningful as possible).
Chinese seem to be hard workers, but it’s again a more homogeneous society, 91% Han per Wikipedia, from a google search of “List of ethnic groups in China”. Conformity is prized.
So it’s not just intelligence, although it is a requirement. Temperament of the populace and its values are essential as well. Mix that with the ironic result of “diversity is our strength” and you get America.
BTW, immigration done the right way is a source of economic strength. It takes balls to leave one’s home to try to make a go of it in an entirely foreign land.
Of course, if you are attracted to that foreign land because of handouts, not freedom, you get an entirely different draw.
“… redeems himself in spades…”
It seems sensible to call a spade a spade, and a racist a racist…
No. Filter.
“AP sources: Trump, in immigration meeting, asks lawmakers why US should allow people to come from ’shithole countries’ ”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-11/ap-newsalert-ap-sources-trump-in-immigration-meeting-asks-lawmakers-why-us-should-allow-people-to-come-from-shithole
And right after he said that, he walked to a corner of the room, looked up and said “Didja get that, Bob? Rod? Andy? Want me to repeat it?”
I applaud someone saying it out loud. But how is El Salvador a shithole and Mexico is not? Dude it’s all dogshit all the way to the south pole.
Except for Chile and Uruguay. Even Colombia is making great strides, as I understand it.
Right. Some dogshit has less corn in it than others.
“Right. Some dogshit has less corn in it than others.”
Yep. I was right. You ARE a liberal.
This is what you are missing if you are failing to exploit this historic opportunity to mine cryptocurrency.
A NEW GENERATION
The secret lives of students who mine cryptocurrency in their dorm rooms
Written by Karen Hao
Obsession
Future of Finance
January 06, 2018
Mark was a sophomore at MIT in Cambridge, Massachusetts, when he began mining cryptocurrencies more or less by accident.
In November 2016, he stumbled on NiceHash, an online marketplace for individuals to mine cryptocurrency for willing buyers. His desktop computer, boosted with a graphics card, was enough to get started. Thinking he might make some money, Mark, who asked not to use his last name, downloaded the platform’s mining software and began mining for random buyers in exchange for payments in bitcoin. Within a few weeks, he had earned back the $120 cost of his graphics card, as well as enough to buy another for $200.
From using NiceHash, he switched to mining ether, then the most popular bitcoin alternative. To increase his computational power, he scrounged up several unwanted desktop computers from a professor who “seemed to think that they were awful and totally trash.” When equipped with the right graphics cards, the “trash” computers worked fine.
Each time Mark mined enough ether to cover the cost, he bought a new graphics card, trading leftover currency into bitcoin for safekeeping. By March 2017, he was running seven computers, mining ether around the clock from his dorm room. By September his profits totaled one bitcoin—worth roughly $4,500 at the time. Now, four months later, after bitcoin’s wild run and the diversification of his cryptocoin portfolio, Mark estimates he has $20,000 in digital cash. “It just kind of blew up,” he says.
…
“It just kind of blew up,” he says.
MIT was probably saying the same thing about the electric bill!
That’s perfect. I sometimes remember the days when the students were taking advantage of the fast network connections at the universities for Napster, etc. Now it’s the free power in the dorm that’s more valuable :-).
walmart just canned thousands and is closing massive amounts of sams clubs. happy new year!
OTOH..
“The big-box retailer announced Thursday it will increase its starting wage rate for hourly employees in the U.S. to $11, and expand maternity and parental leave benefits…Walmart will also pay a one-time cash bonus to eligible employees of as much as $1,000…”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/walmart-to-boost-starting-wage-give-employees-bonus-after-tax-bill.html
This is perhaps one of the largest forms of stimulus in the economy given how many people Walmart employs and how geographically dispersed they are. This will put upward wage pressure on lots of other low wage, entry level positions. $11 an hour is what our starting nurse aides make (which is pitiful considering the work they do). Still, they have to get licensed and a fair amount of training before they can get that wage. If they can start at Walmart doing easier work for the same wage, that means the hospital will need to bump up starting wage to around $13-14/hr.
Do you really believe wages will magically triple or quadruple to meet grossly inflated housing prices?
Of course not.
Housing prices will continue to fall to dramatically lower and more affordable levels meeting wages.
Trump
the FaLL GuY Yellens whipping boy
Trump lives lavishly in your rage ravaged skull….. Rent Free.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTTR33bU0AA-sOU.jpg:large
El Salvatucky
Haitucky
Mr. Trump’s optimism about reaching an agreement and flexibility about what should be in it has drawn fire from immigration hard-liners. They fear he is too willing to sign legislation aiding the young people who had been protected by the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program that he ended in September.
Conservative talk show host Laura Ingraham voiced the views of many of them on Wednesday when she said, “I don’t want to use the word ‘betrayal’ yet, because we haven’t reached the end of the line here…. But I am extremely concerned.”
On Thursday, Mr. Trump told The Wall Street Journal he isn’t worried about the pressure, saying, “my base is with me.” He also said he is motivated by desire to help the affected young people, not politics.
“I’m doing it from the standpoint of heart, I’m doing it from the standpoint of common sense,” he said. He added that the Dreamers were hard workers with jobs. “We need workers in this country.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/lawmakers-look-to-sell-immigration-deal-to-a-skeptical-white-house-1515700909
u dont have a buyer in sight for you shack do you?
More surprisingly candid discussion on QE from a financial establishment bastion.
Why We Have to Talk About a Bubble
The prolonged program of quantitative easing has sent asset prices soaring, even if traditional signs of inflation are muted.
by Jean-Michel Paul
January 11, 2018
Bloomberg
With QE having multiplied the amount of fiat money issued by central banks in just a few years, it’s fair to wonder: How come it didn’t trigger much higher levels of inflation than what we now see? The technical answer is that the money created has ended up full circle — on the books of the central banks.
The more fundamental answer is that QE resulted in a wealth increase for the richest, who consume relatively little of their revenue, while the middle class and the neediest largely failed to reap any benefit. Having not gained from QE, their consumption has not risen, leaving prices pretty much flat.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-01-11/why-we-have-to-talk-about-a-bubble
“How come it didn’t trigger much higher levels of inflation than what we now see?”
Could this have to do with systematically excluding asset prices from inflation measures, even though some assets are also consumption goods (e.g. housing)?
systematically excluding asset prices from inflation measures
Wait, yesterday I was skewered because “imputed rent” is a significant part of CPI..what is it, CPI doesn’t include home prices? Or it does?
I don’t know the nuts and bolts of the CPI calculus, but doesn’t it seem odd for inflation to remain benign, even as rents and housing prices rise at historically high rates, and housing eats up a growing share of consumption expenditures? Perhaps the chain-weighted CPI would do a better job of capturing this dynamic…
Without Rent, Inflation is Way Below Fed’s 2.0 Percent
Target
Published: 04 January 2018
The NYT had a piece discussing the views of members of the Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets monetary policy, on the course of interest rates over the next year. The piece notes that inflation has consistently been below both the Fed’s 2.0 percent target and the FOMC members projections, as they have consistently over-predicted the impact of tighter labor markets on the inflation rate.
It is worth noting that even the modest inflation we are seeing is largely due to rising rents. A measure of core inflation that excludes rent has risen just 0.6 percent over the last year.
http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/without-rent-inflation-is-way-below-fed-s-2-0-percent-target
Carrollton, TX Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/carrollton-tx/market-trends/
“In your heart, you know he’s right”.
Rage
An Over 400-Acre Upstate New York Farm With Rock N’ Roll Ties
The estate has been expanded since it was owned by Daryl Hall of Hall & Oates
https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/84790-an-over-400-acre-upstate-new-york-farm-with-rock-n-roll-ties
‘Trump rage’ and the Alt-Left’s march of folly
By Larry Alex Taunton Published January 28, 2017
At first the protestors kept to the opposite side of the road, but soon they engulfed the whole width of this fashionable boulevard, bringing traffic to stop.
They carried signs with such clever slogans as:
“F—k Trump!”
“Feed Your Trump Rage with Enthusiasm!”
“Say No to Racism!”
“Love Trumps Hate!”
This last one was ironic given the many expressions of hate emanating from the signage of this mob.
“Look at them with their lattes,” my driver observed. He had a point. A well-heeled lot, there was little kinship between these people and the poor, hungry masses of whom Dickens wrote.
“Who is oppressing them?” he continued. “Why not protest the Muslims who really are oppressing people? But you won’t see them do that. They haven’t the balls to do it.”
Given that it was largely a parade of women, they certainly didn’t. Even so, this man was proving to be Rush Limbaugh with a British accent.
Exhausted, I finally reached my hotel, turned on the television, and was jarred by the sight of a ranting Ashley Judd, intoxicated with the illusion that she was leading the masses in a modern storming of the Bastille:
“I feel Hitler in the streets,” she screamed into a handheld mic.
She went on to speak of gas chambers, “blacks in shackles,” and “Nazis in the cabinet.”
Was I watching—no, was I living—“Invasion of the Body Snatchers”?
Like this protest, the Left’s energy, the “Trump Rage” they seem determined to “feed,” is oddly misdirected and out of any sense of proportion. Again, the taxi driver was right. Muslims are burning captives alive in the Middle East; they are slaughtering Christians at a rate of 100,000 per year globally; and they are committing equally heinous terrorist acts throughout the West (and in this city) and these protestors saw the tampon tax—no kidding—as a sign of oppression and Donald Trump as a would-be Hitler. Lattes in hand, they have no idea what oppression looks like. So, they manufacture it, believing that if they said it enough, it will be true.
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/01/28/trump-rage-and-alt-lefts-march-folly.html
They aren’t slowing down in Charleston:
“She was talking about the scenery from Caroline, a 237-unit apartment building nearing completion behind the Charleston Police Department at Fishburne and WestEdge streets.
The seven-story structure is part of the developing WestEdge mixed-used community rising on the Charleston peninsula’s west side. When completed over several years, it will include apartments, offices and commercial space in several multistory buildings where a landfill operated years ago.
Back at Caroline, rental rates for the one- and two-bedroom units are set at $1,605 and $2,275, respectively. The penthouse views cost a bit more: around $4,400 a month.
At Caroline, apartment units will wrap around three sides of the building. On the second floor will be the club room with an indoor and outdoor bar for residents and storekeepers near a saltwater pool. A 24-hour fitness center will sit next to the club room.”
I love this one:
“Because much of the WestEdge site was part of a former dump site, the developers chose to cap the property rather than excavate it to save time and money. “
crater
10 years of that and stocks and homes have boomed crowman.
You seem to be seething today.
Maybe you should try some Yoga in one of the Trump Resorts.
The Fitness Center at The Mar-a-Lago Club is open six days a week, Monday through Saturday, from 7:00am to 7:00pm. Daily classes include Yoga, Pilates, Stretching and Body workouts from our professional trainers.
good inflation = assets (if u own them)
bad inflation= consumable goods
Kensington, MD Housing Prices Crater 23% yoy
https://www.movoto.com/kensington-md/market-trends/
Ah, California living…
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/01/12/california-mudslides-sweep-away-car-in-shocking-video-caught-by-firefighters.html
“A draw (US) or re-entrant (international), is a terrain feature formed by two parallel ridges or spurs with low ground in between them. The area of low ground itself is the draw, and it is defined by the spurs surrounding it. Draws are similar to valleys on a smaller scale; however, while valleys are by nature parallel to a ridgeline, a draw is perpendicular to the ridge, and rises with the surrounding ground, disappearing up-slope. A draw is usually etched in a hillside by water flow, is usually dry, but many contain an ephemeral stream or loose rocks from eroded rockfall.”
Don’t build in a draw.