What We Are Experiencing Is A Return To Sanity
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “ESG Kullen just closed on a bulk condo deal in Delray Beach, and plans to immediately renovate and sell them off individually. The real estate firm paid $7.5 million for 93 units at the 275-unit Murano at Delray Beach, according to Mark Meland, an attorney who represented the firm. The seller was USO Norge Murano LLC, an affiliate of Norwegian investment firm Obligo. The deal at 15005 Michelangelo Boulevard comes out to about $81,000 a unit. Records show the Obligo affiliate sold the units at a loss. It paid $8.8 million for the units in 2009.”
“There is a rule of thumb among real estate agents that if a property is priced fairly, it should sell in about a month and within 5% of the asking price. A median-priced home in Los Angeles County does indeed sell at or above the asking price within an average of 30 days. Luxury homes, on the other hand, usually go through a multitude of price drops, lingering on the market for months, sometimes even years.”
“One Pacific Palisades home that closed in October originally hit the market in March. The initial price is now scrubbed from MLS records, but after a recorded price change to $7.49 million in April, and a subsequent drop to $6.99 million in July, the home eventually sold for $4.2 million. So unlike the middle of the market, where it behooves buyers to act as quickly as possible, luxury buyers are better served by waiting to see just how low the price will go.”
“Everything about the house looked appealing on the outside. It’s in north Dallas, its mid-century modern and recently renovated. It was perfect for first-time homeowners Mari Caroline and Scott Beckwith, or so they thought when they purchased it in February 2017. Just before Christmas, the Beckwith’s sued Ebby Halliday and Jan and Roger McElroy. Mrs. McElroy is a realtor for Ebby and also co-owns the contracting company that flipped the house with her husband, Roger.”
“The Beckwiths claim the McElroys and Ebby lied in the Seller’s Disclosure when, among other things, they promised new plastic pipes. The lawsuit also states that there is no evidence the city permitted any of the work. ‘We feel lied to, we feel cheated,’ said Scott, 25. The Beckwiths are now expecting their first born in April in their first house which requires repairs that might exceed the home’s value.”
“Toronto’s luxury-home sector was hit hard by the market downturn in the second half of 2017 as sales of high-end detached houses slumped and the condominium sector slowed its torrid pace of growth. A new Sotheby’s report on the luxury market shows sales of homes worth more than $1-million in the Greater Toronto Area fell by 56 per cent in the second half of 2017 compared with the booming first half of the year and by 33 per cent compared to the second half of 2016.”
“Vancouver’s market was most volatile for homes priced at more than $4-million, where sales fell 33 per cent in 2017, which Sotheby’s Canada CEO Brad Henderson said was in part owing to an unwillingness on the part of sellers to lower their prices to make a sale. ‘In Vancouver, what we have seen is that there’s a fairly strong disconnect between what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers are willing to offer,’ he said. ‘That’s creating a little more gridlock because the sellers are not in a position where they have to sell, so if they’re not able to get the price they think their home is worth they retreat from the market.’”
“In London there remains a real concern that the super-rich are taking their money out of London property, but the prices remain too high for many to pick them up. So could the bubble soon burst in London? Richard Werth, CEO, Troy Homes told Express that London has enjoyed far greater price increases than the rest of the country, it now needs to ‘adjust from this euphoria.’”
“The biggest mistake real estate investors often make is ignoring the supply side. That’s the view of Harvard Professor Edward Glaeser, who’s touring Scandinavia as a speaker. Glaeser’s visit to the region comes as both Norway and Sweden are seeing steep declines in housing prices after record low interest rates and surging prices sparked a building boom. ‘By far the largest mistake that at least American real estate investors have made over the last 230 years is to pay too much attention to demand relative to supply,’ Glaeser said in an interview in Oslo. ‘Over and over again they ignore the ability of unfettered supply to set prices.’”
“Amid plots of unsold, multi-million dollar reclaimed land, on what was 30 years ago an uncontrolled garbage mountain rising from the sea, Downtown Beirut now features more completed buildings than cranes. Amid seemingly insatiable demand, a profusion of amateur developers entered the market, inflating the availability of housing in Lebanon. The legacy of the boom years today is an overabundance of luxury residences in the downtown area, often with a price tag over a million dollars. Ramco Real Estate Advisors estimates that there are now 3,600 unsold apartments in the BCD alone. The excess supply has forced property owners to reduce their margins and offer discounts of 20 to 40 percent in order to move their inventory.”
“Israel’s finance minister, waging a fierce battle against apartment speculators, in an attempt to bring down housing prices, sought to impose a tax on those who own three or more apartments. The law crashed before it even took off. How, then, is it that the law’s objective was achieved? It now appears that the party is coming to an end. The numbers coming in from the field show that apartment prices all over the country — and even in Yerushalayim, where prices had skyrocketed — are dropping considerably, or at least leveling off. On the other hand, the supply of new unsold apartments is increasing, and the builders’ sales offices are no longer crowded with eager young couples or other would-be buyers.”
“With upwards of 20,000 new residential apartment units expected to arrive on the Dubai skyline in the new year, supply and demand pressures will push rents even lower, suggests statistical analysis by seasoned property consultancy firms. ‘I think rates are going to keep declining over the next year at least. What we are experiencing is a return to sanity,’ said Jesse Downs, managing director of Phidar Advisory.”
“Knight Frank India, said for the first time in this decade, Mumbai witnessed a decline in quoted prices. ‘The weighted average prices were down 5% YoY in 2017,’ it said. ‘For the first time in this decade, the Mumbai market has experienced a drop in residential prices. Unlike the conventional narrative, developers cut down prices to offload their unsold inventory,’ said Dr. Samantak Das, chief economist.”
“House prices dropped on Auckland’s Waiheke Island last year for the first time in six years, says Waiheke Real Estate manager and salesperson Paul Brisbane. In November, the median house price on Waiheke was $885,000, while in Auckland the median was $880,000, he said. Waiheke’s median house price peaked at $1,037,500 in June 2017 and has been falling every month since, Brisbane said. ‘A lot of investors have been pulling out of the market,’ Brisbane said.”
“Homebuyers have been scoring some killers deals as Sydney’s cooling housing market encourages struggling sellers to accept low ball price offers. CoreLogic data showed vendors have been selling their homes for nearly a third below their original listed prices in pockets of Sydney’s south and inner west over the past year. House hunters got the biggest discounts in the suburb of Sutherland, where sellers dropped their original listed prices by an average of 30.1 per cent before selling. The typical price adjustment was roughly $350,000.”
“Realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Conisbee said sellers were also under pressure because investors, who made up nearly half the pool of Sydney buyers last year, were struggling to get mortgages. ‘Investors are really struggling,’ she said. ‘That means there are a lot less buyers around.’”
Tigard, OR Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/tigard-or/market-trends/
HA! Spinning more tales of woe? Inventory is down. Prices steady. No crater in Tigard……just the sound of your empty head collapsing! HA!
You’re pretty emotional about house prices, huh?
Not really. I am passionate about people who claim to be a housing analyst and for the last 5-years have falsely claimed housing prices are falling: It is untrue. Housing has clearly been increasing in value and it still is.
I’m not saying prices cannot or will not go down. I just like to call out the liars.
Parker, CO Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/parker-co/market-trends/
‘Housing has clearly been increasing in value and it still is’
I have several reports above that say you’re lying. By a lot.
I understand Ben. We have watched Sidney, Vancouver, Toronto, London and other places reach a peak and recede. That is all well supported. The higher end markets are clearly softening too.
However, the national housing picture in the US for the average price home is not bleak. That average house went up in value about 6% last year and it has been on the rise since the 2011 bottom.
There are 100s of housing market in the Movato housing stats and HA just goes through and finds a small market with 6 to 8 houses where the home size is now smaller, thus the overall price is lower, but the price/SF is higher. He is a basic shyster trying to put his own false spin on the data.
I just think people should see him for what he is and data for what it is when you look below his bold headline prognostication.
This comment strikes me as fundamentally honest. You are acknowledging that there have been run ups, dare I say “bubbles”, in many international markets that have corrected, are correcting, or will correct soon while still recognizing that, broadly speaking, housing in the US has gone up since 2011. But the recovery is very uneven, and I think once you strip out the outsized gains in the frothy markets, the 6% nationwide becomes really tenuous. Once again, I largely agree with your analysis and I think you are a voice of reason. As much as I think the current prices are crazy, I’m not trying to delude myself into believing something that hasn’t happened (e.g. home prices falling). I do believe, however, that they will fall in the future.
DebtDonkey
Acton, MA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/acushnet-ma/market-trends/
That’s what the cheerleaders in most areas say. But what is interesting, if you pull back the curtain you will find a different story. If you do a little investigation, like regularly checking public records for mortgage amounts, you will find that lots of folks are saddle with some really big debt.
DebtDonkey
Warrenton, OR Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/warrenton-or/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
San Diego: prices up 15%, inventory down 5%, days on market = 38. Imagine, putting your house up for sale and 38 days later it’s gone.
https://www.movoto.com/san-diego-ca/market-trends/
The biggest problem with housing right now is the low inventory. We need more built in the middle and lower price ranges.
San Diego, CA 92130 Rental Rates Crater 12% YOY On Surging Housing Inventory
https://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92130/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on rental chart
HA! More jokes. Clearly an upward trend when you take out the seasonal noise. HA!
DebtDonkey
Burke, VA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As DC Housing Correction Expands
https://www.movoto.com/burke-va/market-trends/
When I compare Senior Housing Analyst’s movoto’s numbers with inventory listed on Redfin, I sometimes find there’s more inventory on the market on Redfin than what Movoto reports. I’m not sure if some of the cities SHA reports are legitimately cratering BUT I want him to be right every time! Keep doin’ your thaaaang, Senior Housing Analyst!
I’ve found that real estate data varies by every single source. It’s hard to get accurate info, and it’s always skewed in the favor of higher prices.
Blackswandive, you are right!
“….it’s always skewed in the favor of higher prices….”
That might be due to prices actually going up over the last 5 years. In 2010, prices were skewed to go lower, because prices had been moving lower for a few years.
Many people want to hope one way or another. It is hard to see reality. This market is nothing like 2006. If you are waiting for prices to moderate or drop for the average home, you’re still a few years away.
DebtDonkey
Lynden, WA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY On Rising Mortgage Defaults
https://www.movoto.com/lynden-wa/market-trends/
If you are waiting for prices to moderate or drop for the average home, you’re still a few years away.
I would agree with this. As much as I think prices are way inflated in many areas, they have been going up for sometime. To not acknowledge this is to be willfully ignorant. However, there are markets that are dropping, especially luxury in the US. And I think we have plenty of evidence that there are international markets dropping where there has been the most froth.
But the bigger the run up, the bigger the correction will be. A lot of it depends on the interest rate normalization. The Bloomberg article quoted in the summary had a Harvard guy touring Sweden saying that every 100 basis points is associated with a decline of about 6-7% in housing prices. So if interest rates were to go up 2%-3%, we would expect to see about a 18%-21% correction nationwide. My operating thesis is that the Fed in conjunction with the tax plan will finally start to see wage/price inflation bump up and housing will come down. Somewhere in the middle the two will meet.
Do you really believe wages are going to triple or quadruple to meet grossly inflated housing prices?
Of course not.
Housing prices will continue to fall to dramatically lower and more affordable levels meeting current wages
Wages have been going up ever so slightly. They went up the most for the lowest 20% of the population in 2017. Inflation-adjusted they have been roughly flat for the past 40 years. But even if wages continue to track inflation, house prices could fall (or rise less than wages and inflation) and they would be affordable at some point. I don’t know what will happen. I think prices will fall much more than wages will increase, but ultimately I think it will be some combination of the two. I just don’t know the split between the two (e.g. 80% of the correction comes from prices falling and/or not rising and 20% comes from wage growth).
Nominal wages are up 15% in 17 years. Housing prices up 300%-500%.
Wages aren’t going to triple. It’s not the way the world works.
If there actually is no inflation (and CPI is an illusion), then wages HAVE been rising, since they have been discounted unnecessarily.
The data I see on housing show Case-Shiller 20-City Composite at 100 in 2000 and 203 in Oct 2017, so that is roughly a 100% increase during past 17 years. I agree with you that housing has far outpaced wages, which is unsustainable. But it doesn’t appear to me that it has gone up 3x or 5x, more like 2x. I’l like to know why you think prices are up 3x-5x. As an aside, I would agree that in some markets the run-up has been excessive (LA, NY, San Francisco, etc.).
CaseShiller=garbage in, garbage out.
Housing prices will continue to fall to dramatically lower and more affordable levels meeting current wages
HA! Us that you again? “Continue”. That implies prices have been falling, which they are not! Get a clue. Do some true analysis! HA!
DebtDonkey
Albany, OR Housing Prices Crater 31% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/albany-or/market-trends/
‘For the first time in this decade, the Mumbai market has experienced a drop in residential prices. Unlike the conventional narrative, developers cut down prices to offload their unsold inventory’
Another former world beater bites the dust. Of course, Samantak is working a bit of a narrative himself as India’s housing market has been in the crapper for a while.
Silicon Valley prices to live in a third world sh!thole. Not that Silly Valley is all that great, but it’s better than Mumbai, and the pay is better too.
Speaking of Mumbai, wow, what a shole.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixJgY2VSct0
Thanks palmy, you just ate-up my google recommendation algorithm.
They literally can’t get their sh!t together…
You mean on youtube? What happened? I made the mistake of peeking at one of the Q-anon videos a few weeks ago and was I ever sorry, lol. It’s only just now they’ve fallen off my recommendations.
That’s why you should always right-click and open in an Incognito window.
Thanks for the tip, Joe.
Oh nothing happened yet. I’m just wondering if google will start suggesting sh!thole videos alongside the cat videos and tiny house videos.
You can always clear the browser cache and cookies. Also, if you’re not signed into your Google account (if you have Gmail or such) then it won’t be remembered.
Thanks for the tip, Joe.
Learned it the hard way, bro.
I never open a link from bit.ly or other shortening service or youtube directly in my signed-in browser window.
Browser add-on: Self Destroying Cookies
Sh*thole country ?!
Wow…just wow.
American NAZIs are loving it!
‘The real estate firm paid $7.5 million for 93 units at the 275-unit Murano at Delray Beach’
The previous 182 buyers are fooked.
Sold:
2006 $232,700
2009 $86,500
2012 $89,000
Now average: $80,645
‘The legacy of the boom years today is an overabundance of luxury residences in the downtown area, often with a price tag over a million dollars. Ramco Real Estate Advisors estimates that there are now 3,600 unsold apartments in the BCD alone. The excess supply has forced property owners to reduce their margins and offer discounts of 20 to 40 percent in order to move their inventory.’
This article is a fascinating example of mania’s, recommended to read in full.
Speaking of manias…have you noticed the media’s trying to get behind this crypto mania super bubble like it’s fundamentally sound? Wow…
Why is it fundamentally sound or not sound? Is it a currency? Does it divert capital away from large banking interests that are all working on your behalf and who would never game you? Is it better or worse than paying a yearly country club membership? Do you think Blankfein owes a few coins?
Buffett on cryptocurrencies: “I can say almost with certainty that they will come to a bad ending”
Can the same thing be said about bonds? I-phones for $1000 a pop? Downtown Miami condos?
Are you too young to remember James Dine riding gold up to $800 and then riding it down to $137 in 1980?
There was free money in crypto if you took out your original investment after it rose.
I don’t recall anyone getting back his yearly country club membership fee, do you?
Comparing Bitcoin to bonds? One has revenue backed by assets collateralizing repayment, the other is a speculation dependant on the next greater fool for repayment.
“One has revenue backed by assets collateralizing repayment…”
Correct, but, what happens NOW to the value of bonds if interest rates go to 4% ?
‘Toronto’s luxury-home sector was hit hard by the market downturn in the second half of 2017 as sales of high-end detached houses slumped’
The Globe and Mail was careful to avoid highlighting price declines, but alas, speculators are getting their heads handed to them.
‘One Pacific Palisades home that closed in October originally hit the market in March. The initial price is now scrubbed from MLS records, but after a recorded price change to $7.49 million in April, and a subsequent drop to $6.99 million in July, the home eventually sold for $4.2 million.’
Oh dear…
Great to hear that sanity is starting to return to the West Coast real estate market.
I am not sure sanity exists anywhere in CA…..
One of the highest-dollar home sale last year was a $20-million Pacific Palisades estate, which found a buyer in 12 days and sold for the asking price — a rarity in luxe real estate but still possible if the home is priced right.
“…The initial price is now scrubbed from MLS records…”
These sorts of shenanigans show how corrupt the NAR is.
Wonder how the record cold of this winter of “global warming will kill us all meme” is affecting sales in Toronto?
Who wants to buy a house when you get frostbite looking at “cozy backyard where the squirrels play”
‘We feel lied to, we feel cheated,’ said Scott, 25. The Beckwiths are now expecting their first born in April in their first house which requires repairs that might exceed the home’s value’
It was cheaper than renting Scott, right? Good luck with the alligator you’ll be paying down the next 30 years. I kinda think you’ll be a walking away before much of that time passes though.
“Then, within 24 hours of filing that suit, someone threw a brick through the glass in his back door.”
Now that’s just cold.
The seller was a realtor whose husband is a contractor. The misrepresentations on the disclosure are material and should provide the basis for a good suit against the realtor and the broker.
Realtors are liars.
…and 99% of contractors
Was Jan wearing bell-bottom jeans when she threw that brick?
The complaint in this case is a pretty good read. You can view it by pasting this link below and going to ‘original petition. and choose view document.
‘As the hit TV show “Fixer Upper” sweeps the nation, many real estate agencies and their sales agents and many part-timers have entered the craze to buy an old home, “fixer up,” and flip it to unsuspecting buyers for a handsome profit. The result? Rapidly increasing housing prices, high property tax bills, a decline in affordability, and many unsuspecting buyers left holding the bag’
https://courtsportal.dallascounty.org/DALLASPROD/Home/WorkspaceMode?p=0
How cow - this house has YUGE structural and foundation problems.
In sane times - RUN AWAY! FAR AWAY!
And you didn’t even need a house inspection to see this stuff.
++++++
Some problems are easy to see, such as cracks in drywall, the ceiling and doors that don’t close.
“The bathroom is separating from the house and the ceiling and attic and really sinking into this corner,” he added, standing in the guest bath.
Floors have bowed, as well. When a roll of tape is placed near the front door, it rolls toward the wall.
There was a big debate when they started large scale building of shacks with slabs in N TX. The soil rises and falls too much every year. The builders got their way and now I’d bet almost everything is build on a slab. This is what happens and unless you dump 10’s of thousands into fixing it every decade or two, the lifespan won’t be what it used to be. Progress! Houses where I grew up are a hundred years old. This newer stuff will last 40, maybe 60 years.
Are these the famous “water your foundation” Texas houses?
That doesn’t work.
Myths of the Foundation Repair Industry | Dawson Foundation Repair
https://www.dawsonfoundationrepair.com/foundation-repair-myths/
Don’t accept statements as facts until you have read these Myths of the Foundation Repair Industry. These myths are wrong and ignorant. … Things that cause the soil to become moist include activities like rain, watering your plants, and leaking pipes. Things that cause your soil to shrink include drought, plant growth, and …
Foundation Failures…Why so many in Texas? - Home Inspections …
blog.mysanantonio.com/markeberwine/…/foundation-failures-why-so-many-in-texas/
May 14, 2009 - If the homeowner says he or she did water around the foundation, the builder will say “you watered too much”. It is a no win situation for the homeowner. Texas law allows builders to construct minimally functional foundations that require large volumes of water be used in the soils around the house to …
The best thing to do is leave your relatives behind and move above limestone. Second best is to do everything you can to get rain water away from the house. As far as possible. Really good gutters (kept clean), more than enough drains, extend the output drain way out and put one of those plastic splatter things under those to push it out a couple feet more. I have seen a fancy rainwater system that feeds directly into an underground PVC setup that takes it way out into the yard. I don’t know how long it would take to get clogged. Maybe a month.
And don’t put plants around your house cuz - you have to water them.
I had a neighbor in New Iberia who spent $50K to have pilings driven around his slab foundation to jack it up. 200 ft of clay below at least. The old houses were on blocks.
In areas of clay or caliche, which are defined as expansive soils when saturated according to the Uniform Soil Classification System, a pinned slab is the desired construction technique. Piles are driven into the soil and the slab is poured on top forming a cap. This allows for soil expansion without uplift pressure (heaving) against the slab.
Far less costly are spread footings in lieu of piles. In the case of a SFR, a structural slab. It’s a fraction of the cost of friction piles. If the clay is highly porous it may have to be surcharged with….. you guessed it… mafia blocks or some other locally available high density material like gabions, etc. Basically imposing enough force to compress and squeeze the water out of the clay. Friction piles are gonna go $80-120/driven foot. Not cheap but nothing is when bidding in the ground work.
My slice of paid-off spec heaven rests on a cheap a$$ slab, and the region’s caliche swells every winter causing my door frames to morph into parallelograms.
I’m guessing 4″ slab with WWF. Basically a glorified sidewalk without the broom finish.
I bet a 6″ 4000psi mix with single mat #5 on 12″ would move…. at all.
We have differential heaving. If our slab was thick with reinforced bars the house would tilt like the bad guy’s place in Batman. If you lift our carpets you’ll see a map of cracks going every which way, and our soil beneath the slab has smooth edge boulders everywhere. Git ‘er done… cheap a$$ construction.
I grew up in the nation’s soon to be third largest city. Our house and all our relatives’ houses were pier/beam foundation. The dogs used to hang out underneath the house in the summertime to escape the heat.
So, no basement, no slab. All the houses are are up on brick columns. All I can think of is the rats and other critters who live under the house. Yikes.
It’s not hard to seal up the underside of a shack. Even mobile shacks. The pier and beams I’ve seen had huge wood pilings anchored to bedrock, which might be way down there. Ten feet or more.
Gee, it must have been in the late 50’s when I was a senior appraiser in Santa Barbara, and went to Thousand Oaks to look at a possible loan, that I noticed the new slab cracking, called for a floor check, ( bore a 4 ” hole in the slab, and check the concrete), lo, and behold, 2″ slab!
Turned down about 1,000 houses for loans.
the funny thing was that southern California had much higher inspection standard than northern California.
We had to meet FHA mps for our loans.
Two inch slab? That’s not good enough for a patio.
Turned down about 1,000 houses for loans.
Avienda los arboles ? they don’t even have rebar in the foundation
Houses where I grew up are a hundred years old. This newer stuff will last 40, maybe 60 years.
I live in a rental in North Texas that’s not even 10 years old and we’re experiencing the same problems these home debtors are. The quality of construction here is pure crap. I can’t believe people buy this stuff.
I’m beginning to think I’ll be renting all my life. These newer houses are just junk.
All houses are depreciating junk. Throwing money at them is the only way to counter it. For now, rent for half the monthly cost. Buy later after prices crater for 70% less.
Houses where I grew up are a hundred years old. This newer stuff will last 40, maybe 60 years.
Think about this for a moment.
We have an aging housing stock…the MEDIAN age of our owner-occupied housing is 37 years old (as of an article in January 2017) (and getting older every year).
38% was built before 1969.
There are 75 MILLION such housing units in the country.
If there was a 100 year life-span for each one, eventually, we would need to build 750,000 owner-occupied homes PER YEAR to keep a steady state of owner occupied houses. If the lifespan of homes is 200 years, we need to build approximately 375k per year for steady state.
And this is only owner-occupied…there is another 60 million rented units.
Eventually, a large number of housing units each year will need to be built simply to replace the obsolete units (upwards of a million). I’m NOT saying that 1MM are needed now…but over time we will reach this level (or close to it).
With respect to estimates of 1.6MM housing units per year needed, I often hear:
“But we don’t have that many households formed per year.” Or
“You shouldn’t look to history as a guide for how many homes are needed in the future.”
Once you start to consider the number of housing units that are torn down/replaced each year (and the likelihood of that number growing), then our current pace of building at ~1.2MM units per year, doesn’t seem quite so high–especially when the current estimate is that several hundred thousand units per year are destroyed and need replacing currently.
A lot will depend on what the demographics will be in the next 10, 20, 30 years. Life expectancy for Americans has fallen for 2 straight years (alcoholism, suicides, opioids, cardiovascular disease, etc.). US birthrate is way down, so if we strongly curtail immigration, we will end up with surplus housing like Japan:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/12/26/national/japans-glut-abandoned-homes-hard-sell-bargains-opportunity-knocks/#.WkO3ZTtlBLM
Japanese builders are increasingly looking to acquisitions because their population base is shrinking so they have fewer customers to sell too. Last year one of the large Japanese companies bought a local Salt Lake City home builder building in UT, AZ, CA, NV, and TX:
https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/housing/japanese-homebuilder-acquires-salt-lake-based-woodside-homes/
There is already a surplus of housing. 25 million of them.
we will end up with surplus housing like Japan:
Look up “population momentum”.
We have a long way to go before our population plateaus/starts to decline.
Actually, we’re much closer than you think. The US fertility rate was 3.65 in 1960 and is 1.84 now. For reference, China is 1.57. In the US, it was 2.11 in 2006, so it has continued to drop to an all-time low.
If a country is below the fertility 2.1 (replacement rate), a country can only maintain its growth due to immigration. Well the US is below the replacement rate:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/health/united-states-fertility-rate.html?_r=0&mtrref=www.google.com
The only reason population continues to grow is because of immigration (and immigrants have higher-than-average birthrates). Certain demographics in the US have higher-than-average births. The states with the highest growth rate are western states (Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Washington). Those states also have a disproportionate number of Mormons, which have a far higher-than-average birthrate (I know, because I am Mormon). But the Mormon birthrate is reverting back to the national trend and has fallen precipitously in the past 20 years, although it is still quite a bit higher than national average.
Ironically, one of the reasons why the US fertility rate is partly due to high housing costs. Housing costs so much, so people are living with family longer, getting married later, and they have a much shorter window during which they can have children.
US population growth is lowest on record.
Did you look up “population momentum”?
From a simple Google search…
Population momentum refers to population growth at the national level that would occur even if levels of childbearing immediately declined to replacement level.
Yes, I was quoting exactly from the population momentum Wiki article:
The following list are countries that maintain growth despite a fertility rate of under 2.1 (US is included in list). However, some of these countries also maintain growth because of immigration.
By the time population momentum no longer matters with respect to population growth in the US, I will be dead.
When you say “much closer than you think” when do you think the US population will begin to decline?
There is no population momentum and hasn’t been for decades.
When you say “much closer than you think” when do you think the US population will begin to decline?
That is a difficult one because so much of that is tied to a whole host of other future predictions about decisions for childbirth. For instance, what would happen if we got subsidized day care and better parental leave policies for working mothers? Maybe that would entice more childbearing at the margins. France pays cash to parents to have babies and has been doing so some time. Might we get to a similar situation?
A lot also depends on our immigration policy, so I guess I don’t really have an answer because I don’t really know what will happen there. But if we strongly curtail immigration, I would say by 2030 then we will start to go down unless there is a massive cultural shift that reverses the US fertility rate.
If you don’t know, then why the statement?
It might also be a lot farther off than you think…by your own admission.
Current projections show US population growing for at least the next 40 years.
Sweden has very favorable benefits for new parents…their fertility rate is 1.88. The last time it was over 2.0 was in the early 1990s
The US fertility rate is 1.84. The last time it was over 2.0 was 2008.
Might want to do some homework before we spent more of our grandkids’ money on a new entitlement.
If you don’t know, then why the statement?
Admittedly, I don’t know, let’s just get that out there. I’m just offering my best guess, which is that we stop growing as a population long before the next 40 years.I do know that trends and extrapolations can be wildly inaccurate. We all know how accurate peak oil was. You just can’t foresee every political contingency which will can throw a huge wrench in any credible projection. For instance, I’ve seen OPEC countries wildly revise downward their future oil consumption projections due to wildly underestimating the change that EVs are having.
I liken the OPEC revision in oil demand to the the potential for revisions to the population momentum direction and magnitude. Small changes can have pretty large results. We’ve had 2 years of declining life expectancy in the US. As they say, one swallow doesn’t make a summer, but if this goes much further, than a lot of the projections about US population 10, 20, 30, and 40 years out are definitely going out the window. The same can be said about a radical departure in immigration policy, or even the fecundity of immigrants. All the reasonably well-thought out assumptions of population growth take recent trends in past immigration patterns (and fertility rates) and extrapolate them. But if you tweak the baseline assumptions (including how many immigrants we let in), then we very well may come up short.
Personally, I think high housing prices are going to be self-reinforcing and limit the population increase much more than people realize. My father was one of 10 children. I was one of 6. My wife and I have 1 child (I’m almost 40), and we may or may not have another one. In my peer group, I am not an unique. At a societal level, we also have sexting, porn, and lots of ways that people are engaging in sexual behavior that are virtual and don’t involve the risk of procreating, so there is that. Teenage pregnancy and even teenage sex is at a multi-decade low. I cite these merely to further how recent technology coupled with behavior may bend the curve quite a lot.
Might want to do some homework before we spent more of our grandkids’ money on a new entitlement.
I’m not necessarily saying this is a good policy, though I could be convinced. I wonder how the Swedes view what they are getting in terms of what they are giving via this subsidy. My larger point was that there are secular trends in place. If you’ve never seen this guy’s worldwide demographic presentation, I consider giving it a watch (if you watch the first 5 minutes, you’ll get the larger secular trend towards lower fertility rates among all countries):
https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_you_ve_ever_seen#t-143998
‘We feel lied to, we feel cheated,’ said Scott, 25. The Beckwiths are now expecting their first born in April in their first house which requires repairs that might exceed the home’s value.”
Poor millennials got stuck with a “feeling”. Feelings don’t hold up in court of law. You’re handy dandy disclosure should put things in black and white and help you in the realz world.
But…but…warranties!
Warranties are about worth the paper they are written on.
Especially by a contractor!
++++++
The disclosure also claims warranties on the foundation and plumbing. But the Beckwiths said they cannot get the name of those contractors from the McElroys.
Poor millennials got stuck with a “feeling”. Feelings don’t hold up in court of law. You’re handy dandy disclosure should put things in black and white and help you in the realz world.
So as long as he didn’t throw away the pile of documents that he got at closing, he should have a case. That should lead to a nice feeling when he gets his settlement, which will be something that older generations won’t understand, since they’re all robots without feelings.
The only known facts are;
A) He foolishly borrowed a pile of money and paid too much for a rapidly depreciating asset
B) He paid for a lemon
See what happens when a Know-Nothing is extended credit?
price not mentioned in article
He paid too much.
TPP, I thought Trump 86′d that? Ben should follow suit.
Chinese Workers Abandon Silicon Valley for Riches Back Home
U.S.-trained Chinese-born talent is becoming a key force in driving Chinese companies’ global expansion and the country’s efforts to dominate next-generation technologies like artificial intelligence and machine learning. Where college graduates once coveted a prestigious overseas job and foreign citizenship, many today gravitate toward career opportunities at home, where venture capital is now plentiful and the government dangles financial incentives for cutting-edge research.”
bloomberg
They’re probably taking stolen tech back with them.
Well sure they are….
They’re probably taking stolen tech back with them.
Maybe sometimes. But the same factors that make it better to go back home also mean that our tech is less and less worth stealing. For things like computers and social media and buttcoin China has already caught up. Leading edge aerospace is the only thing I can think of that they might still really want. Maybe that and a few defense weaponry things?
They have been stealing and copying stuff for Decades…
most folks r too dumb to even copy
They have been stealing and copying stuff for Decades…
Yes…I just think that now they are about finished. They got everything they were looking for with the noted exceptions.
Anyone here looking forward to flying in Chinese designed and built COMAC jet airliners?
Not really. They have a different take on liability. A life is a fixed amount, and if you screw up you just pay it. Easy calculation.
I wonder why the average Joe techie would go back? Pay is still worse, the air is still toxic and the cost of living is just as bad. I guess home is home.
…sounds like a sh!thole country
You’re assuming the statements made in the article are factual.
You’re assuming the statements made in the article are factual.
Good point.
I remember the narrative a few years ago was that Indians were heading home to greener pastures. Now they’re having hissy fits as the the rules for H1-B’s are being enforced, and claim that the US desperately needs those H1-Bs.
For PCB design learn how to use the expensive tool, copy the libraries, make contacts, go back home and start a business doing PCB contract design work out of China. Cheaper for the US company and more flexible.
FAB the PCB in China, assembly the PCB in China , test the PCB in China.
Now repeat the whole thing with ASIC’s
I wonder why the average Joe techie would go back? Pay is still worse, the air is still toxic and the cost of living is just as bad. I guess home is home.
The article says its about culture and wanting to go back to where you feel at home. I can’t understand wanting to go to a polluted area, but I do understand wanting to feel some affinity to a culture and society where you feel at home.
“Then there are those for whom it’s about human connection: no amount of tech can erase the fact that Shanghai and San Francisco are separated by an 11-hour flight and an even wider cultural chasm.
Chongqing native Yang Shuishi grew up deifying the West, adopting the name Seth and landing a dream job as a software engineer on Microsoft’s Redmond campus. But suburban America didn’t suit a single man whose hometown has about 40 times Seattle’s population. While he climbed the ranks during subsequent stints at Google and Facebook, life in America remained a lonely experience and he landed back in China having soured on Western life.”
“You’re just working as a cog in the huge machine and you never get to see the big picture. My friends back in China were thinking about the economy and vast social trends,” he said. “Even if I get killed by the air and live shorter for ten years, it’ll still be better.”
http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/business/article188702409.html
Micron workers stole tech secrets to benefit Chinese companies, prosecutors say
Most companies have software that watches for this kind of theft off a USB port they scramble it
I have less sympathy when it’s workers on foreign soil (which that sounds like). There’s a cost to saving money by hiring people in other places.
I guess LA is running short of multi millionaires.
They are running short of speculators willing to gamble on price appreciation, given that high-end prices are falling.
‘Last year, almost 40 percent of the Dallas-area homes that sold went for more than the asking price, according to new data from real estate portal Zillow’
In Dallas, the median amount buyers paid over asking price was 5.7 percent or $12,023, according to Zillow. That compares to 3.1 percent more nationally or $7,000 above list price. In San Jose, San Francisco, Salt Lake City and Seattle more than half the houses sold above the price listed with real estate agents.
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2018/01/10/almost-40-percent-dallas-homes-sold-asking-price-17
‘Glaeser’s visit to the region comes as both Norway and Sweden are seeing steep declines in housing prices after record low interest rates and surging prices sparked a building boom. ‘By far the largest mistake that at least American real estate investors have made over the last 230 years is to pay too much attention to demand relative to supply,’ Glaeser said in an interview in Oslo. ‘Over and over again they ignore the ability of unfettered supply to set prices.’
I know Ed, and even when I point out a 72 year high in San Francisco housing construction, they insist nothing is being built. Crazy.
The problem is that not enough housing is being built in SF to meet demand and create reasonable prices. I am not sure the housing needed for the job growth will be accomplished until a recession hits.
I know it’s impossible to predict these things, but…
Knowing that the crash in Canadian housing WILL happen at some point, do you think it will happen before the end of 2018?
I think by the end of 2015 Alberta will fall hard. Vancouver in 2016. Toronto 2017. These initial drops will start the foreclosure cascade.
The desperation of central banks and those in power to keep the bubble going is not to be underestimated.
I thought when Home Capital Group was about to go bankrupt that it would be the beginning of the end for the Canadian Housing Bubble.
A house of woes: How Home Capital went from market darling to the brink
http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/home-capital-bleeds-another-291-million-in-withdrawals-in-just-one-day
But nope!
Warren Buffett’s company buys into troubled Home Capital Group
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/warren-buffet-home-capital-1.4172661
Honolulu, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY On Surging Housing Inventory
https://www.movoto.com/honolulu-hi/market-trends/
bs data go away crowman
DebtDonkey
Kensington, MD Housing Prices Crater 23% yoy
https://www.movoto.com/kensington-md/market-trends/
im in your head crowman. SHP
DebtDonkey
Ormand Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/ormond-beach-fl/market-trends/
HA! Inventory down 80% to 8 houses! HA!
Go away with your meaningless tripe! HA! You are a laughing stock with stupid information doing a disservice to the HBB readers.
Super low inventory may signal unwillingness by homeowners to sell at market prices they feel are too low. We saw this in Silicon Valley in the early 2000s, following the Dot Com crash. Suddenly multi-million dollar homes that sold like hot cakes a few months back wouldn’t move, and soon there was no inventory nor sales. Market liquidity was dessicated.
I just moved from ormond beach in March…inventory is more than 8. I bought in 2003 for 102,000.Prices got as high as 200-220. Sold in April for 162,000. Small 1000 sq foot bungalow 5 min walk to ocean.Beachside ormond became a sh hole.
Super low inventory may signal unwillingness by homeowners to sell at market prices they feel are too low.
My parents were looking to move several years ago when there was super-low inventory. They didn’t care much about price…they owned all-cash, and were planning to roughly trade withing the same subdivision.
They held their home off the market for a lot longer than they wanted because of the low inventory….they didn’t want to sell their home, and not have a place to move into. Eventually, they caught wind of a seller they knew who was willing to give them time to find a buyer–so they put their home on the market…it sold quickly.
Well, there you have the answer. Michelle says prices were up 100% since 2003 and have dropped 20% since the peak (not sure when that was). I guess Ormand is decaying which is leading to price deterioration.
DebtDonkey
Bethesda, MD Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As DC Housing Correction Expands
https://www.movoto.com/bethesda-md/market-trends/
Jingle,prices in Ormond dropped in 2011-2012 to low 100’s sometimes more if thay needed work. The 162,000 was the recovery.
The denial about Housing Bubble 2.0 is strong.
Opinion: The bitcoin bubble is a bad omen for the U.S. economy
Published: Jan 12, 2018 12:02 p.m. ET
In the economic and stock market cycle that ended in 2000, it was the dot-com bubble. In the next economic and stock market cycle, it was a real-estate and mortgage-finance bubble. This time we have a bitcoin bubble
…
everything bubble
stocks
housing
bonds (it all starts here)
cryptos
I guess people have a lot of money to lose.
The FED is going to have to buy more assets!
Almost easier to list what is NOT in a bubble.
As for investments - NOT MUCH
Off the top of my head:
British Pound
Oil Pipeline companies
Uranium
Gold/Silver miners
Coal
and some sh*thole country stock exchanges (like Turkey)
where is the value?
This whole sh@t show will collapse if interest rates go up.
But how will they really go up?
If the dollar collapses we r gonna see massive inflation for imports and then investors will push up yield on bonds to compensate.
“…everything bubble…”
Just a taste of how far out of hand these bubbles have gotten:
There was a piece last night (11-Jan-18) on Nightly Business Report (PBS) about someone selling a Malibu Beachfront house for $45mm.
The zinger was that the owner when interviewed mentioned that he would accept partial payment in bitcoin.
Now who in the hell can realistically afford a $45mm home?
Is the .001% or the .0001% or does it really matter?
Just the carry costs of taxes,insurance,upkeep (you will need a staff) have just got to be north of >>$1mm.
Ladies and Gentlemen readers of this blog, we are now officially living in Zocko world.
When this baby finally blows, we will all be writing some pretty nasty world history.
Put on your 10 gallon hat and enjoy the show!
I was at a bbq last night explaining to a millenial about the crypto bubble and how we’ve had many bubbles in the past, including one that involved tulips. I told her its her generations turn to get screwed, but dont say some of us didnt warn you.
Over the weekend I was talking to a friend who just gave notice to his company that he will be moving. He said a number of people are leaving as well, including one guy who is leaving because he’s making so much in crypto he doesnt need to work anymore. My friend told him he hopes hes talking profit and he said yeah. Gonna be some serious sad pandas in the near future.
Also heard that the grid in WA state which has the cheapest rates due to hydro is finding itself not able to support all the mining operations. Insanity.
“…heard that the grid in WA state which has the cheapest rates due to hydro is finding itself not able to support all the mining operations…”
That also was a topic on last night’s 11-Jan-18 NBR (PBS).
Demand for electricity is now so high in one particular town that the local city demands upfront cash payments to build out extensions to the power grid.
Kudos to the Mayor, who says he doesn’t want for city / taxpayers left holding the bag when mining operations go bust.
At least common horse sense isn’t completely dead.
At least not yet.
Don’t believe people when they tell you they’re taking out their profits. Some may take out their initial investment, like my buddy did, but try getting them to liquidate the rest. They will. not. do it. It’s like monkeys holding onto the nuts in the gourd traps.
My buddy was up to $20,000 and I’m begging him to GTFO NOW! Nope, now he’s down to $18,000 and I’m sure he’s going to follow it all the way down, hanging on every. step. of the way.
It’s the greed. He’s terrified he’ll be out and never able to get back in should it take off again.
I’m no expert, but it looks like this initial phase is over and out. No doubt in my mind that cryptos will eventually take hold, but the underlying infrastructure and the exchanges stink out loud and ruined it.
What I’ve learned from the many bubbles I’ve observed in the last 25 years - plus the ones I’ve read about - is that if you are level headed you will generally not participate and just be a casual observer. If you happen to own the bubbling asset you make some good money, not a fortune, but you will have likely sold too soon.
The ones that arent level headed get hooked and at the peak beat their chests over their fortunes, failing to see the cracks developing in the facade and will indeed ride their fortunes down.
The only ones that make out like bandits are the sociopaths that know its a fraud from the start and know when to get out before the whole thing blows up. The CEO of intel who sold everything he could once he learned about the “defect” in their chips is a good recent example, but theres hundreds if not thousands more over the last 20+ years that should be in jail getting the gimp treatment.
“If you happen to own the bubbling asset you make some good money, not a fortune, but you will have likely sold too soon.”
The one thing I always heard that made sense is “You can never go wrong by taking a profit”. And that is exactly where people mess up, they sell when they’ve done pretty well (which is the right thing to do, IMO) and when it continues to rise, they think “Grr, I sold too soon”.
I’m interested in the phenomenon, I do think some sort of distributed ledger technology is in the future, but after watching the video about Hashgraph, I don’t think it will be the blockchain after all. Way too unwieldy and uses too much energy. But it is a good start.
messagetorudy: If you happen to own the bubbling asset you make some good money, not a fortune, but you will have likely sold too soon.
“I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon” - Nathan Rothschild
Thanks for that, Neuro. Rothschild is not exactly my fave, but in this case, he speaketh sooth.
I’m no expert, but it looks like this initial phase is over and out.
Correct
No doubt in my mind that cryptos will eventually take hold,
Correct
but the underlying infrastructure and the exchanges stink out loud and ruined it.
What infrastructure and what exchanges? That is the appeal and that’s what has JPM up in arms. They, Bloomberg and GS want a taste. They’re running the Futures and they don’t know how to hedge against something they aren’t totally in control of. The Open Interest numbers were small last month.
Where else can you find this entertainment?
P.S.
I say fk Buffett. What a monumental financial hypocrite.
Who wants to buy a house in California?
And remember - your Prop 13 property tax rate resets to market value!
+++++
Failed State California: Overtaxed, Overregulated, Overopinionated, and Underhanded
Canada Free Press | 01/12/18 | Katy Grimes
More is never enough for California politicians, as evidenced by our highest-in-the-nation taxes. The once-Golden State of opportunity and innovation ranks 48th in the Tax Foundation’s 2018 State Business Tax Climate Index. Again. Back in 2012 I wrote about our lousy 48th ranking, and that was before Gov. Jerry Brown’s Proposition 30 passed, which dramatically increased sales and income taxes. And it was before the California Legislature passed yet another massive gas/diesel tax on the state’s drivers, making California’s the highest gas taxes in the nation.
What exactly are we getting for our highest-in-the-nation taxes? Our schools rank at the bottom of the country on test scores, our infrastructure is not maintained and deteriorating, our roads and highways are ignored, the forests are not cleared of dead trees, our gas tax revenue is used for social programs, we have the highest poverty in the nation and one-third of the welfare recipients in the country live in CA…
And all this during a “booming” economy!
I was going to comment on that.
We literally have a generation that has never gone through a recession.
Never have seen the stock exchange go down year after year.
Never have seen housing prices crumble and keep crumbling.
No going out to eat, fixing your own clothing, owning a clunker if you are lucky, watching every penny - and that is middle class.
Now imagine what will happen to insane state and local spending when revenue goes down 30%.
We literally have a generation that has never gone through a recession.
Depends on your definition of recession. In some ways the younger generation has seen nothing but recession. But it’s a papered over recession so that makes it hard to identify or learn from. Everything seems vaguely off and unfair and difficult to succeed but they can’t quite put their finger on it. So they lash out at white males in general not knowing what else to do.
This.
As far as I’m concerned, it’s been nothing but recession since 2000: stagnant and even falling wages, record low labor force participation, record welfare enrollment, and to make it worse, record housing (both purchase and rental) costs, not to mention spiraling healthcare and education costs.
And it’s not just the millenials who have suffered.
Snowflakes should stop “culturally appropriating” all inventions and technology created by white males if they’re so butthurt.
Excellent point.
It doesn’t help that their parents are the people who disproportionately benefitted from decades of rising debt and rising asset prices with few personal consequences, and as a result, millennials were not taught to be suspicious of these miraculous instruments of prosperity. (Not saying you have to be taught that to eventually figure it out for yourself. But it makes it especially hard to figure out what is killing you when most of the world is singing its praises.)
Yeah, everyone else understands all about it. So when house prices crash, it will only be those stupid millennials who go through foreclosure, bankruptcy and so forth.
We literally have a generation that has never gone through a recession.
must be a generation of toddlers
Is that you Mikey? Shariablue checks still clearing or you doing this pro-bono, and I dont mean being a U2 groupie.
We literally have a generation that has not delayed gratification.
How much have salaries risen since 2000? Enough to save up for most Millennials?
What exactly are we getting for our highest-in-the-nation taxes?
one-third of the welfare recipients in the country live in CA…
one-third of the welfare recipients in the country live in CA…
Where are you getting your stats from? According to SNAP data, CA has about 10% of the participation rate. Also, the states that rely the most on SNAP (arguably the biggest welfare program) are: D.C., Mississippi, New Mexico, West Virginia, Oregon, Tennessee, and Louisiana.
https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/pd/29SNAPcurrPP.pdf
Don’t forget WIC, disability, section 8, medicaid, AFDC, etc.
Yes, and it’s typically the red states that have the highest rural poverty due and also have the highest corresponding use of these programs, especially disability.
The SSDI program is the red state’s long term unemployment.
‘Why does Harrison Ford keep showing up in luxury real estate listing photos?’
In Los Feliz, he’s back in action as Indiana Jones inside this $3.8M home.
Los Feliz? I once went there for a funeral. The place was so ghetto that the funeral home had security guards in the parking lot.
People pay $4M to live in shitholes like Los Feliz?
That was a fun read. Thanks Ben!
FWIW….
I wonder what the real underlying criteria / bias is for these surveys……
Living in the Denver area as I do - the traffic is horrendous and as others have said on this site - housing costs are high and salaries are on par with fly over country.
https://www.theladders.com/career-advice/the-best-cities-to-move-to-if-you-want-to-be-happy?utm_swu=1054&utm_medium=email&utm_content=25citieshappy&utm_source=member&utm_term=DNL-01-11-18&utm_campaign=daily-newsletter
Technically, Denver is not on the list, but Boulder and Fort Collins were.
Boulder is stupidly expensive, so unless you’re a trust fund baby, you won’t be happy there. The traffic isn’t as bad as Denver, but it’s busy,
Ft. Collins is a Boulder wannabe. It has the other big state U campus. But unlike Boulder jobs pay much less in the Fort, especially tech jobs, which are harder to find as HP, Intel and others are not hiring, and those who are pay, by my estimation, 20-30% less than comparable jobs in Denver, and the Fort ain’t cheap.
Yup.
I’ll buy you a beer at Rockyard when I’m down in Castle Rock sometime.
Go for the burbon strike stout when they have it. It’s by far their best.
Nice list except for Denver. I’ll never understand the attraction to that city. It’s Nebraska with more nose bleeds and hipsters.
Weed.
Relative lack of obese people.
300 annual days of sunshine.
I omit skiing because most people ski on weekends and traffic on I-70 has gotten so bad this is the first season I haven’t bought a ski pass.
And the winters aren’t bad as outsiders think they are. Sure, it ain’t SoCal, but it ain’t Chicago or Buffalo either.
Yeah, but the mountains are so brown and rocky. I guess that’s why they call them the Rockies.
“Weed.
Relative lack of obese people.
300 annual days of sunshine.”
Mountain climbing dogs!
You forgot the Mountain climbing dogs!
You mean the shiny new tunnels didn’t fix the ski traffic ?!
They need to expand I70 to three lanes (or more) all the way to the ski resorts. It will never happen.
Castle Rock, CO Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY As Denver Housing Correction Expands
https://www.movoto.com/castle-rock-co/market-trends/
we need to make the people who export to us print some more money and buy our treasuries so we can send out some more entitlement checks!
“What We Are Experiencing Is A Return To Sanity”
Like coming back to Earth after doing a whippet?
Demi Moore reportedly hospitalized after inhaling nitrous oxide: What are whippets?
By RYAN JASLOW CBS NEWS January 26, 2012, 7:04 PM
What exactly are whippets? Also known as “whip-its,” “whippits,” and “nossies,” they are steel cylinders filled with nitrous oxide, or “NOX,” which is often used in dentists’ offices before novocaine injections or dental procedures.
According to Dr. Harris Stratyner, regional vice president at Caron Treatment Center in New York, inhaling nitrous oxide causes people to experience a euphoric, dissociated, out-of-body state.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/demi-moore-reportedly-hospitalized-after-inhaling-nitrous-oxide-what-are-whippets/
how much did u lose on your house?
“how much did u lose on your house?”
Which one?
Yikes… those fake cheekbones look awful.
God bless President Donald J. Trump. God bless America.
“Bring me my clutching pearls!”
The FBI Hand Behind Russia-Gate
by Ray McGovern
https://original.antiwar.com/mcgovern/2018/01/11/fbi-hand-behind-russia-gate/
‘If congressional investigators have been paying attention, they already know what former weapons inspector Scott Ritter shared with Veteran intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) colleagues this week; namely, that Fusion GPS’s Glenn Simpson, who commissioned the Russia dossier using Democratic Party money, said he reached out to Steele after June 17, just three days before Steele’s first report was published, drawing on seven sources.’
“There is a snowball’s chance in hell that this is raw intelligence gathered by Steele; rather he seems to have drawn on a single ‘trusted intermediary’ to gather unsubstantiated rumor already in existence.”
trump colluded
“trump colluded”
The View?
With one simple, if vulgar, word, he has achieved the following:
1) Knocked that grinning death’s head Michael Wolff and his book off the front pages.
2) Made Dick Durbin and Lindsay Graham look like a couple of smacked asses. (and likely Paul “that’s not who we are” Ryan and Mitch McConnell as well)
3) Brought a disgruntled, muttering base back to Daddy
4) Consigned the porn star story to the archives
5) Forced a badly needed government shutdown.
Have I forgotten anything?
Yes, yes I did. As a master of branding, he just branded the amnesty pushers. You will never be able to think of Ryan, McConnell, Graham, Durbin, Pelosi, Schumer, the majority of the Dems and all of the neocons like Rubio without thinking of “shole”.
They might as well wear name tags that say “Hello, I’m Shole!”
And you just know that when one of these amnesty pushers makes a public speech somewhere, somebody sure as heck is gonna shout “Sh!thole!”
We got this guy, too. Took 26 years, but we got him. Well, sort of. He’s still here.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/citizenship-revoked-first-operation-targeting-those-accused-naturalizing-illegally-n836521
Seems to me ICE would get more bang for their buck if they just drove through Home Depot parking lots in typical pickup trucks, picked up a couple of guys for “work,” , drive them to a detention center and investigate and arrest.
No, ICE should pull into the Home Depot parking lot in a U-Haul moving van. Those guys will literally come running across the parking lot to it. (I’m saying this based on personal experience.)
Why U-haul? I guess people are hiring illegals to unpack?
Reminds me of this classic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjqFWFqbpDQ
Dog whistle
“I’ve always believed that America is an idea, not defined by its people but by its ideals”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/graham-i-said-my-piece-to-trump-directly/ar-AAuC2f8
That’s fine, Lindsay. Every time people see or hear about you, they’ll think of you as an idea, too. Sh!thole
Senator Graham needs to understand that “the people” here actually implement America. Lots of places have democracy, constitutions, separation of powers, and yet are violent, low productivity, failing kleptocracies. Because of the people.
For example, I remember reading a piece on democracy and Islam in the Middle East. The devout groups are willing to use the western concept of democracy in order to vote in a theocracy. They call it, “One man, one vote, one time.”
America has never been simply an idea. It’s been an idea plus its implementation by the people.
This
Mexico has a very fancy and complex constitution. It goes way beyond ours, guaranteeing free K-12 education, etc.
The problem is that the people are irreparably corrupt and incapable of self governance. This is why so many third world sh!tholes have their Potemkin “democracies” overthrown by military coup d’tats.
Overbanked, I agree. Which is why we need to kick out the mooches - of every color- and give the jobs back to American citizens of every color.
Make America hate again!
A Tribe Called Quest — Everything Is Fair (Living In The City):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qC7axSYzLWo
The Truth About ‘Sh*thole Countries’
https://www.youtube.com/user/PrisonPlanetLive
I was listening to news radio on the commute home. Dick Durbin was on. In his most lugubrious yet sanctimonious tone, he said that ‘Nothing worse has ever been said in the White House’ (or something very close - that was the gist of the comment). Dick Durbin’s claim to fame was a moment of candor where he admitted that at the end of the day, when he’s listening to his voicemail, the large donors are the ones who get return calls. That’s IMO is way worse than stating a simple descriptive fact in, admittedly, a boorish way. I probably would have used the term ‘dysfunctional’ to describe the countries, but DJT gotta do DJT and I gotta do me.
They then cut back to the reporter and a talk show host, both strongly opposed to Trump. They were talking about how pearl-clutchingly awful Trump’s language was. And they had an in-depth discussion about how airing the 9/11 building impact footage was similar to CNN airing the term ’sh•thole’. It was surreal. On the one hand, we’re watching hundreds of people brutally die, on the other, we’re seeing a curse word. Surreal. Like listening to people who have completely lost their minds, like listening to a serious discussion of the naked emperor’s new clothes, in real life.
‘Nothing worse has ever been said in the White House’
Jeebus, watch Oliver Stone’s history of the united states and check out the part on Harry Truman and the way he talked about the Japanese. Oh, and he unnecessarily dropped two atomic bombs on them too.
“Like listening to people who have completely lost their minds …”
Bahahahaha … this is what I begin to do each and every day as soon as I open up for business.
There’s a housing bubble in effin BEIRUT ?! Oh well, I guess all those yellenbux have to go somewhere.
Seattle (Capitol Hill), WA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY On Skyrocketing Housing Inventory
https://www.zillow.com/capitol-hill-seattle-wa/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
So once upon a time there was an American graduate school math/statistics program.
There were eight Chinese from China no less, one Middle-East person and one “white boy.”
At the end of the program they needed to find an employer/sponsor to stay here. Only one Chinese student was able to do this. Everyone else HAD to go back home.
It’s a complicated picture. You can Google what it requires to be a sponsor.
It is NOT simply going out and finding a job.
home prices must go up to keep bankers in business. If the collateral for the loan goes to sh@t then everyone suffers mightily.
This is called a Gotcha!
(Gotcha: A position that holds immense value that smart people yearn to obtain.)
“There was free money in crypto if you took out your original investment after it rose.”
If you found somebody’s wallet would you take out the cash and throw the rest in the dumpster?
Mr. Banker says:
1. Dumb ‘em down.
2. Profit.
“New Survey Reveals Staggering Number Of People Are Buying BitCoin On their Credit Cards”
“… nearly 20% of people who have purchased BitCoin have done so using their credit cards.”
Twenty-percent. I call that a GOOD BEGINNING!
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-11/new-survey-reveals-staggering-number-people-are-buying-bitcoin-their-credit-cards
Don’t feel bad if you fail to perceive the bubble in almost everything. You have plenty of company through the long march of financial history.
Opinion Undercover Economist
The lesson for diagnosing a bubble
It is easy to laugh at past follies exaggerated for comic or sermonising effect
Tim Harford
‘Selling tulip bulbs’, Flemish School: The idea that the 17th-century Dutch republic was economically convulsed by tulip mania is hard to support © classicpaintings / Alamy
January 11, 2018
Here are three noteworthy pronouncements about bubbles.
“Prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” That was Professor Irving Fisher in 1929, prominently reported barely a week before the most brutal stock market crash of the 20th century. He was a rich man, and the greatest economist of the age. The great crash destroyed both his finances and his reputation.
“Those who sound the alarm of an approaching . . . crisis have somewhat exaggerated the danger.” That was a renowned commentator who shall remain nameless for now.
“We are currently showing signs of entering the blow-off or melt-up phase of this very long bull market.” That was investor Jeremy Grantham on January 3 this year. The normally bearish Mr Grantham mused that while shares seem expensive, historical precedents make it plausible that the S&P 500 will soar from present levels of around 2,700 to more than 3,500 before the crash occurs.
Mr Grantham’s speculation is striking because he has tended to be a savvy bubble watcher in the past. But as any toddler can attest, it is not an easy thing to catch one before it bursts.
There are two obvious ways to diagnose a bubble. One is to look at the fundamentals: if the price of an asset is unmoored from the cash flow it is likely to generate, that is a warning sign. (It is anyone’s guess what this implies for bitcoin, an asset that has no cash flow at all.)
The other approach is to look around: are people giddy with excitement? Can the media talk of little else? Are taxi drivers offering stock tips?
At the moment, however, these two approaches tell a different story about US stocks. They are expensive by most reasonable measures. But there are few other signs of speculative mania. The price rise has been steady, broad-based and was hardly the leading news of 2017. Given how expensive bonds are, it is hardly a surprise that stocks also seem pricey. No wonder investors and commentators are unsure what to say or do.
It seems all so much easier with hindsight: looking back, we can all enjoy a laugh at the Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, to borrow the title of Charles Mackay’s famous 1841 book, which chuckles at the South Sea bubble and tulip mania.
Yet even with hindsight things are not always clear. For example, I first became aware of the incipient dotcom bubble in the late 1990s, when a senior colleague told me that the upstart online bookseller Amazon.com was valued at more than every bookseller on the planet. A clearer instance of mania could scarcely be imagined.
But Amazon is worth much more today than at the height of the bubble, and comparing it with any number of booksellers now seems quaint. The dotcom bubble was mad and my colleague correctly diagnosed the lunacy, but he should still have bought and held Amazon stock.
Tales of the great tulip mania in the 17th-century Dutch republic seem clearer — most notoriously, the Semper Augustus bulb that sold for the price of an Amsterdam mansion.
“The population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade,” sneered Mackay more than 200 years later.
…
It is easy to laugh at the follies of the past, especially if they have been exaggerated for the purposes of sermonising or for comic effect. Charles Mackay copied and exaggerated the juiciest reports he could find in order to get his point across. Then there is the matter of his own record as a financial guru. That comment, this time in full, “those who sound the alarm of an approaching railway crisis have somewhat exaggerated the danger”, was Mackay himself, writing in the Glasgow Argus in 1845, in full-throated support of the idea that the railway investment boom of the time would return a healthy profit to investors. It was, instead, a financial disaster. In the words of mathematician and bubble scholar Andrew Odlyzko, it was “by many measures the greatest technology mania in history, and its collapse was one of the greatest financial crashes”.
Oddly, Mackay barely mentions the railway mania in subsequent editions of his book — nor his own role as cheerleader. This is a lesson to us all. It’s very easy to scoff at past bubbles; it is not so easy to know how to react when one may — or may not — be surrounded by one.