January 29, 2018

Sellers Had To Wrestle With What Value Actually Is

A report from Gatehouse News in Massachusetts. “The low inventory of homes for sale across the Cape and Islands that has pervaded the market in the last 12 months continues to baffle even the most experienced real estate agents, who’ve seen their share of unusual cycles over the decades. ‘There’s something more than [a typical market cycle] going on and I can’t figure it out,’ said real estate agent Bob Wilkinson, an associate of Wilkinson & Associates Real Estate, in Orleans. ‘The market is not nearly as strong as it should be with such limited inventory. You’d think it would be marching off the shelves but it’s not,’ said Wilkinson, who’s been selling in the area for 40 years.”

“With inventory so low, is it a seller’s market? One might think so, but Wilkinson said there’s a dearth of buyers, too. ‘If it was a seller’s market you’d be seeing a lot more action. There are a lot of properties that have been on the market for a long time, and they are not over-priced,’ he added. ‘Other agents might say ‘no, there are a lot of buyers.’ But if that was the case we’d be getting a lot more calls to see the houses that are for sale.’”

A report from Reuters. “Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell more than expected in December, recording their biggest drop in nearly 1-1/2 years. The Commerce Department said new home sales declined 9.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 625,000 units last month. The percentage decrease was the largest since August 2016. In December, there were 295,000 new homes on the market, an increase of 3.9 percent and the highest level since April 2009. The stock of new home sales still remains well below its peak during the housing market bubble. At December’s sales pace it would take 5.7 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, up from 4.9 months in November.”

A report from Curbed. “Both new and existing monthly home sales fell in December, with new home sales falling dramatically by 9.3 percent to 625,000, while existing home sales fell by 3.6 percent, to 5.57 units. Both numbers are seasonally adjusted. For new home sales, the precipitous drop was accompanies by downward revisions of the numbers from October and November as well. However, the December numbers were 14.1 percent higher compared to December of 2016.”

“According to Zillow, 2017, as a whole, saw the lowest number of new homes sold since 1992, not counting the housing bust and subsequent recovery. ‘[The new home-sales] numbers are not the way we would have liked to see 2017 end for the new home sales market,’ Zillow’s Aaron Terrazas said. ‘[2017] has proven to be a two-step-forward, one-step-back process in getting building activity to where it really needs to be. Big gains in one month are often revised down in the next.’”

“Half of the nationwide decline in existing home sales can be attributed to a whopping 22.2 percent decline in condo and co-op sales in the West, which also saw a 32.1 percent drop in homes priced at less than $100,000 and a 21.5 percent drop in homes priced from $100,000 to $250,000. The drop in sales over those price ranges extended across every region in the United States, although it was most pronounced in the West.”

The Modesto Bee in California. “It’s not just your imagination. They really are building new homes again. But it’s not like before, meaning a decade and more ago, when model homes were a common sight throughout Stanislaus County. These days, new-home construction sites are struggling to make a comeback. Most builders remain cautious, said John Beckman, CEO for the Building Industry Association of the Greater Valley. ‘It’s definitely about time,’ Beckman said of home construction picking up in spots, including Patterson, Ripon, Riverbank, Oakdale, Denair and Keyes. ‘But it’s a very risky business.’”

“John Anderson of Ripon-based J.B. Anderson Land Use Planning does work for several cities, including Riverbank, Waterford and Lathrop. He said, ‘It’s honestly nice to see some finishing lots sitting out there in Village I. But anybody who lived through this economic depression will tell you, ‘Man oh man, we’re gun shy’, Anderson added. ‘They should be. If not, they’re crazy.’”

From Greenwich Time in Connecticut. “Greenwich totaled 570 home sales worth nearly $1.5 billion in 2017. Though the number of sales in 2017 was similar to 2016, they amounted to about $204 million more, according to an analysis by Mark Pruner of Berkshire Hathaway N.E. Properties. An increase in the number of luxury sales and a strong fourth quarter contributed to that uptick, Pruner said.”

“Jonathan Miller, a real estate appraiser and consultant who produces market analysis for Douglas Elliman, referenced two key statistics in his fourth-quarter report: how long homes sat on the market before closing, and the size of listing discounts — the discrepancy between homes’ sale and most recent list prices. Miller defines the luxury market as homes with prices ranking in the top 10 percent. For Greenwich’s luxury market, it took, on average, 310 days for homes to sell, almost double from the year before, he said. The listing discount also doubled.”

“In 2016, the luxury market was ‘dormant,’ Miller said. ‘The market was devoid of significant high-end activity. Come forward a full year, sales aren’t up because the town or schools are any better. The sellers had a couple of years to wrestle with what value actually is,’ he said.”




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130 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-29 09:08:17

‘It’s honestly nice to see some finishing lots sitting out there in Village I. But anybody who lived through this economic depression will tell you, ‘Man oh man, we’re gun shy’, Anderson added. ‘They should be. If not, they’re crazy.’

I’ve read this article twice now and I can’t find any talk about shortages or regulations or the like. They did mention wages not going up though. And after all, it is the poorest state in the union.

‘Half of the nationwide decline in existing home sales can be attributed to a whopping 22.2 percent decline in condo and co-op sales in the West, which also saw a 32.1 percent drop in homes priced at less than $100,000 and a 21.5 percent drop in homes priced from $100,000 to $250,000. The drop in sales over those price ranges extended across every region in the United States, although it was most pronounced in the West.’

Where’s our resident shortage meister and crow gourmand? I hope he brought an appetite.

Comment by SW
2018-01-29 09:54:52

When I read the last CAR analysis of SFR they showed the drop in existing sales under $250k. Either the market is tanking or there are no more homes in CA left under $250k.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-29 10:27:27

Census vacancy data will be coming out shortly…will be interesting to see if apartment vacancy continues to rise, or of the 2 quarter trend will end.

You’re right, they didn’t mention a shortage anywhere in the article. I guess that means there isn’t one. Plenty of housing for all!

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-29 10:36:35

If prices start to decline and Obama-era investors who were counting on Hillary Clinton to continue supporting Mel Watt’s housing price inflation scheme start to cut their losses by selling fast and furiously, we could soon be swimming in a sea of affordably priced homes for sale. Hopefully Team Trump will recognize the potential for the free market to provide affordable housing, and get the GSEs out of the way.

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-29 10:53:59

This is why I note (and have for years) the tracking of vacancy rates. THIS is the best metric for whether or not there is enough housing.

During the bubble years, rental vacancy was regularly at 10% nationally (up from 7-8% from the mid-90’s to about 2000), with the homeowner vacancy rate at approximately 3% (up from 1-2% from the mid-90’s to about 2005).

Today, the rental vacancy rate is back to the normal band…7-8%…BUT RISING (watch this space)…and the Homeowner vacancy rate is likewise in the normal 1-2% range.

If you simply own an empty house speculatively, yes, you can decide to sell it the same way one would sell a share of IBM.

HOWEVER, if that house is where you live, you are less likely to simply sell because the price is high without also going to occupy another home.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-29 11:17:00

‘the best metric for whether or not there is enough housing’

Somehow, mankind managed to build enough shacks for hundreds and hundreds of years, until now. Of course, this is after the fact justification of insane shack prices. Just like they did a few years ago. Coincidence?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-29 12:03:31

Somehow, mankind managed to build enough shacks for hundreds and hundreds of years, until now.

The problem I’m mainly focused on is California. And the problems with supply/demand balance here started after CEQA was passed.

I cannot (and will not) say that there is a shortage in Dallas, or Houston, or Miami Condos, or high-end condos in NYC.

But a simple, and affordable home for folks to live in CA? You can’t tell me there are nearly enough.

And yes, the shortage in California has led to CA home prices rising far faster than they should over time.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-29 13:22:13

With 25 million excess, empty and defaulted houses out there, 4.4 million of them in CA, there is plenty of housing.

 
Comment by oxide
2018-01-29 14:50:46

I dunno about “enough shacks.” Every historical book and documentary I’ve seen always mentions wandering migrants, vagrants, poor, living on the streets, asking for alms, etc.

 
Comment by tresho
2018-01-29 15:34:25

Every historical book and documentary I’ve seen always mentions wandering migrants, vagrants, poor, living on the streets, asking for alms, etc.
I personally knew such a man, who was eventually taken off the streets by the local authorities when they learned he was actually a trust fund baby — had a house paid for & maintained by his trustee, which he then refused to use. He preferred to play the role of a wandering street person, would heave a rock through a downtown store window to earn a night in jail, would sometimes be taken to the local ER to be de-loused - where he would sexually harass the nurses, rinse & repeat, until the authorities learned his real status. They went to the local probate court, which declared him incompetent, took authority of the fund, etc. & confined him to a nursing home, all expenses of this massive effort paid for by his own funds. One of the strangest stories I ever heard. I doubt it ever got into the news.

 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-01-29 17:32:00

I’ll be living as a migrant, vagrant, living on the river and such. I sure hope they don’t throw me in a nursing home and delouse me!

 
 
Comment by messagetorudy
2018-01-29 12:33:36

Was doing some online bill paying yesterday and noticed an interesting message from my credit union when I logged in - they will NOT process Heloc amounts less than $500.

Peoples be using their homes as an ATM again. I’m sure this time will be different :)

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Comment by b
2018-01-29 12:48:15

that is friggin wierd

people doing heloc withdrawls less than $500. I would have thought it woudl have been a $5K or $10K min

 
Comment by messagetorudy
2018-01-29 14:03:49

I’m guessing they dont have that much “equity”, otherwise they’d go big and slam it into their veins like the junky they are.

 
Comment by oxide
2018-01-29 14:47:18

Wow, this reminds me of how goon squad/apt 401 would look at other people’s cash withdrawal receipts at his ATM: “Withdraw: $40. Account balance: $16.”

$500? I thought a refi was a huge undertaking, with closing costs and new accounts…

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-29 16:46:44

$500? I thought a refi was a huge undertaking, with closing costs and new accounts

My understanding is that with a HELOC you are approved to borrow up to X dollars over a predefined period of time. The bank gives you a check book and you can write checks against the line of credit, usually with a minimum amount per check. This is how people were walking into car dealerships and paying “cash” for a new car during bubble 1.0.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-29 17:16:28

I once worked on a foreclosure where the FB left behind his HELOC “credit card”.

 
Comment by rms
2018-01-29 20:08:27

I once worked on a foreclosure where the FB left behind his HELOC “credit card”.

LOL… future so bright gotta wear shades.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2018-01-30 04:53:06

Bear,

Unfortunately I think your predictions are based more on wishful thinking than on what’s been happening. We know what happens to Grade B affordable housing. Grade B houses and apartments all get bought up and converted to luxury housing. Or it gets torn down and converted to luxury housing. Or it gets bought up and rented out while waiting for the land under it to appreciate, at which point it is torn down and converted to luxury housing.

The only way to stop this cycle is simply to limit the gov money — Fannie, Freddie, loans — only to end-consumer citizens up to a certain income. Sure, there will be cries of picking winners and losers, but what the hell. Since when does government *not* pick winners and losers? Every tax deduction picks a winner and loser.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 05:08:06

Feel free to keep whistling past the future graveyard of the Housing Bubble if that suits you.

 
 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-29 10:37:54

Eat up Crow Watch…. eat up.

Emeryville, CA Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY On Mushrooming Housing Inventory

https://www.movoto.com/emeryville-ca/market-trends/

 
 
Comment by rms
2018-01-29 20:03:26

“The market, all but dead around Modesto, stayed decent just up the road in Manteca and Lathrop, an area enjoying an impressive rebound.”

Impressive rebound due to easy credit not rising incomes.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2018-01-29 09:15:29

The Tipping Point (TPT)

+++++

Um, Is the US Treasury “Yield Curve” Steepening or Flattening?
by Wolf Richter • Jan 29, 2018

And how would the housing market digest these kinds of mortgage rates?

In this cycle, the Fed has hiked its target range for the federal funds rate only after meetings that were followed by a press conference. There are four of them scheduled this year – the first one on March 14-15. So, next time the Fed may nudge up its target range (currently 1.25%-1.50%) is 6 weeks away.

About $14.8 trillion of the US government’s $20.5 trillion in debt is publicly traded (the remaining $5.7 trillion is held by internal accounts of the US government, such as Social Security). This makes the Treasury market the most liquid bond market in the world, and its benchmark yields underpin a number of other markets, including the mortgage market.

But the 10-year yield on Friday (at 2.66%) was just a smidgen above the seven-year yield (2.60%). So it is from the seven-year yield on up where the yield curve is still relatively flat.

But wait… If the Fed nudges up its target range four times this year – a number that keeps cropping up – the two-year yield might rise to about 3% by the end of 2018. And if the spread between the two-year and the 10-year yield widens to 2 percentage points at the same time, it would push the 10-year yield to about 5% by year-end.

And wait… Mortgage rates follow the moves in the 10-year yield. On Friday, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for top-tier borrowers rose to 4.28%, about 1.6 percentage points above the 10-year yield. If the Fed raises rates four times in 2018 and if the 2-to-10-year spread widens to 2 percentage points, then the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for top-tier borrowers might have a rate of around 6.6% by the end of 2018.

Would the housing market be able to digest these kinds of mortgage rates – with home prices as inflated as they are in many cities – without an abrupt decline in demand followed by a big adjustment in prices?

And wait… At the end of 2018, would anyone still buy junk bonds at current yields (the effective yield of the average BB-rated junk bond is 4.38%), when you can buy Treasuries at a yield of 5%?

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-29 09:49:08

“And wait… Mortgage rates follow the moves in the 10-year yield. On Friday, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for top-tier borrowers rose to 4.28%, about 1.6 percentage points above the 10-year yield. If the Fed raises rates four times in 2018 and if the 2-to-10-year spread widens to 2 percentage points, then the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for top-tier borrowers might have a rate of around 6.6% by the end of 2018.”

Just in time for this to kick in …

https://wtop.com/business-finance/2017/03/adjustable-rate-mortgages-climbing-in-popularity/

Suck ‘em in, then shake ‘em out. Suck ‘em in with low adjustable rates then shake ‘em out when these rates get adjusted higher.

Easy money. Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

A nation of dummies.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-29 11:56:20

It’s a lucky thing that housing inventories have plummeted to historically low levels almost everywhere houses are sold, as this will limit opportunities for idiots to use adjustable rate mortgages to purchase homes that they cannot afford.

 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-29 10:53:06

I have a very difficult time envisioning 5% Treasury yields by year end, given the economic havoc which would result. It seems like the Fed would prefer to keep rates at anti-gravity low levels, and continue turning a blind eye to the resulting manias.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-29 16:15:35

I too can’t see 5% treasuries, as much as I might want them. But one can always hope!

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2018-01-29 09:24:46

Funny how I never see stuff like this on HGTV International Beach House Shows…

And that they didn’t mention that this parasite comes from feces (on the beach or in the water).

And their FREE HEALTH care didn’t work. But, luckily, they still had an option.

++++

Young couple contracts hookworms in feet at Punta Cana beach resort
Fox News | January 28, 2018 | Nicole Darrah

A young Canadian couple who recently returned from the Dominican Republic is warning those who are planning to travel “somewhere tropical” about the risks of walking barefoot in the sand after coming home with “incredibly itchy” feet — which turned out to be parasites.

After returning home on Jan. 18, Zytner noticed his feet had become very swollen and small bumps had developed on his toes.

The couple, according to Stephens’ Facebook post, contracted larva migrans, known in layman’s terms as hookworms. She said she likely came into contact with the parasites while walking on the sandy beaches of their resort in Punta Cana.

However, Stephens said Canada’s national public health department, Health Canada, denied their request for the medication because it’s not licensed in Canada — so her mother had to drive to Detroit, Michigan, to get the medicine.

 
Comment by 2banana
2018-01-29 09:30:02

1. If the house has been on the market a long period of time and you are not getting any calls about the house - IT IS OVER-PRICED.

2. “Not going to give it away” is a sure sign of chasing the market down

3. Yes - there is something going on. The obama years are over. The “cost of a house always goes up” meme is over. New DJT Tax laws, the Great QE unwind and rising interest rates are changing the paradigm.

+++

“With inventory so low, is it a seller’s market? One might think so, but Wilkinson said there’s a dearth of buyers, too. ‘If it was a seller’s market you’d be seeing a lot more action. There are a lot of properties that have been on the market for a long time, and they are not over-priced,’ he added. ‘Other agents might say ‘no, there are a lot of buyers.’ But if that was the case we’d be getting a lot more calls to see the houses that are for sale.’”

Comment by 2banana
2018-01-29 09:44:47

HGTV never mentioned this either…..hmmmmmm

And Jamaica BANS guns. How can this be?????

++++++

Jamaica Tourists Told to Stay in Hotel Rooms Due to High Murder Rate
Ammoland | 26 January, 2018 | Dean Weingarten

British Tourists flock to Jamaica, where they tend to stay in fenced in tourist hotels that are off limits to most locals. Now they being told to stay in their rooms.

The reason: sky-high murder rates and a recent spate of killings.

British holidaymakers in Jamaica have been told to stay in their resorts by the Foreign Office after a state of emergency was declared following a series of shootings.

Troops have been put on the streets following the killings in Montego Bay, which is popular with tourists.

The country’s Prime Minister issued a State of Emergency and put security services and troops on the street to tackle the gunmen after a record 335 murders last year in the area.

He has now ordered a massive house-to-house search in the St. John’s area for the gunmen and tourists are being tole to stay in their hotel rooms.

The 2017 murder rate for Jamaica was 42.6 per 100,000 population, one of the highest in the world.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-29 14:31:56

Most foreign tropical vacation destinations used to be safe. Now you’re taking an unnecessary risk in visiting them. I’m astonished that millions of Americans still vacation in Mexico. The country is for all practical purposes a failed state. I can only imagine just how bad it is in the Caribbean.

Comment by oxide
2018-01-29 15:02:26

I “vacation” using google maps/earth. The other day I skipped around the streets of Lagos, Nigeria. Then I cleansed my palate with Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Then I looked at “The Flats” area of Los Angeles, and finished with a view from Lookout Mountain, Tennessee.

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Comment by tresho
2018-01-29 15:27:09

I “vacation” by collecting stories from other travelers. My favorite Lagos story is from a Nigerian who emigrated & became a US Army MD. He wanted to travel back home & impress his relatives with his success. So he shipped his nice Mercedes to Lagos to have a suitable vehicle to drive around Nigeria in. He lost his car at the port, it was never heard from again. And he acted surprised!

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-29 16:20:33

A nurse that I work with in the ICU goes to Europe once a month. Her husband works for a subsidiary of Delta and she and her husband get comped international flights whenever there is excess capacity. She stacks her schedule and works 6 12-hour shifts and then has 8 days off and goes to Madrid, Paris, or Amsterdam. Pretty sweet gig if you ask me!

 
Comment by messagetorudy
2018-01-29 17:16:51

Equatorial areas have a lot of stuff thats out to get you - insects, diseases, critters, even locals - lol. I went to Thailand this past fall - very cool culture and people, but make no mistake - its a s-thole. The ocean is dirty, the drinking water is bad, and the air is foul. It is also the place American tourists are most likely to die, behind only Mexico. Probably a lot of the fatalities are self-inflicted, but I ended up in the hospital at the end due to some sort of illness that locked up my gut.

One rule of thumb I have is - go where there are few people. A hallmark of developing countries is their inability to manage their waste and more people = more waste.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2018-01-29 18:07:42

I went to Thailand this past fall - very cool culture and people, but make no mistake - its a s-thole. The ocean is dirty, the drinking water is bad, and the air is foul.

Really? I was in Phuket two years ago and wouldn’t have said any of those things about it. I did not drink the water. But I thought the ocean and air were fine. Of course I was coming from China though :-).

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2018-01-29 09:39:33

Some flashbacks to 2005.

Housing takes much, much longer to sell.

Inventory builds and builds.

And it starts on the high end and works its way down…

++++

Miller defines the luxury market as homes with prices ranking in the top 10 percent. For Greenwich’s luxury market, it took, on average, 310 days for homes to sell, almost double from the year before, he said. The listing discount also doubled.”

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-29 09:57:11

Realtors are liars.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-29 10:23:08

I didn’t catch it until today but it sure was good to see that Dog climbing that mountain.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

 
 
Comment by CryptoNick
2018-01-29 10:17:17

“This sucker is going down.”

Comment by CryptoNick
2018-01-29 10:21:43

sponsored by
CITY & BUSINESS
Bitcoin price news: Why is bitcoin going down today? BTC crashes $12.5billion

BITCOIN has plummeted some $12.5billion from Sunday’s high as the cryptocurrency continues to struggle to maintain its growth. But why is bitcoin crashing today?

By Joe Tambini
15:04, Mon, Jan 29, 2018 | UPDATED: 15:12, Mon, Jan 29, 2018
Principal Global Investors CEO: Bitcoin lacks fundamental value

Bitcoin, the world’s biggest and best-known cryptocurrency, is currently trading at less than $11,300, according to CoinMarketCap - down from a high of more than $12,000 yesterday (January 28).

Its coin market capitalisation is now hovering around the $190billion mark, which is far below its December peak of nearly $335billion.

Bitcoin’s growth looked unstoppable last month, when it surged from less than $3,000 to nearly $20,000 in just a few months.

But the entire crypto market has faltered since the start of the year, with bitcoin’s closest rivals Ripple and Ethereum also struggling.

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/911501/bitcoin-price-news-why-btc-going-down-crashing-today-cryptocurrency

 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-29 10:25:47

‘America Is Open For Business’

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-29 10:35:09

Breaking: Andrew McCabe steps down today. As the article notes, this was expected, but not this soon. He was supposed to stay on board until March, when he was eligible for a pension.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/29/fbi-deputy-director-andrew-mccabe-frequent-target-of-trumps-ire-steps-down-nbc-news.html

Don’t let the door hitya where the good lord splitya, traitor.

Comment by oxide
2018-01-29 11:31:39

You might want to read more than the headline, palmy:

“McCabe will remain on the FBI payroll until March, when he is eligible to retire with full benefits.”

McCabe is only 49. He can lay low for a couple years and then lobby for more than enough $$$ to make up for a pension.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-29 10:39:14

Bitcoin ain’t business…it’s reckless gambling in a short-lived speculative mania.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-29 11:47:15

“Bitcoin ain’t business”

‘America Is Open For Business’ was meant for the …

“This sucker is going down.” quote.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

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Comment by CryptoNick
2018-01-29 12:02:56

The “This sucker is going down” quote was meant for cryptocurrencies. Since nobody uses these in conducting ordinary financial transactions, I’m pretty sure the economy will get along just fine, no matter how badly crypto’s greater fools get burned.

 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-29 13:10:10

I had it for…

Henry Blodget
Sep. 26, 2008, 5:33 AM

“If money isn’t loosened up, this sucker could go down,” President Bush declared Thursday as he watched the $700 billion bailout package fall apart before his eyes, according to one person in the room.

 
 
 
 
Comment by CryptoNick
2018-01-29 10:30:30

‘Without this bitcoin price would collapse’: Fears grow over tether ‘printing press’ as auditors part ways
January 29, 2018 2:33pm
Frank Chung
http://www.news.com.au/finance/money/investing/without-this-scam-bitcoin-price-would-collapse-fears-grow-over-tether-printing-press-as-auditors-part-ways/news-story/308503ab61f82d320e92847a0b59a23b

BITCOIN could crash up to 80 per cent if it turns out the price has been artificially pumped up by controversial crytpocurrency tether, analysts have warned.

Tether, a so-called “stablecoin” which aims to maintain a value of one US dollar per tether, has been described as the “ticking time bomb” of the cryptocurrency world which could trigger the next “bloodbath” similar to the 2014 collapse of the Mt. Gox exchange.

And while Japanese exchange Coincheck on Friday confirmed it had lost up to $US530 million in a hack worse than the $US450 million Mt Gox theft, it’s the “tether situation” which has the market on edge.

“Everyone in crypto is very worried about the tether situation, and if these really count as dollars,” said David Gerard, author of Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain.

A key critic of tether and its owner Bitfinex, a cryptocurrency exchange registered in the British Virgin Islands, is a blogger going by the handle Bitfinex’d, who has published a series of detailed blog posts, tweets and YouTube videos outlining the scheme.

In effect, Bitfinex has been accused of creating tether out of thin air, without corresponding US dollar deposits, in order to pump up the price of bitcoin. While Bitfinex insists all new “USDT” are backed by real dollar deposits, new tether issuances have coincided with dips in the price of bitcoin.

Last week, an anonymous analyst backed up those claims in a report titled “Quantifying the Effect of Tether”, which concluded that it was “highly unlikely that tether is growing through any organic business process, rather that they are printing in response to market conditions”.

“Tether printing moves the market appreciably,” concluded the report, which compared bitcoin price movements before and after new tether issuance, as well as analysing publicly available tether transaction statistics using forensic accounting techniques.

“48.8 per cent of BTC’s price rise in the period studied occurred in the two-hour periods following the arrival of 91 different tether grants to the Bitfinex wallet,” the report said.

“Bitfinex withdrawal/deposit statistics are unusual and would give rise to further scrutiny in a typical accounting environment. If there is questionable activity, the author believes a 30-80 per cent reduction in BTC price could be forecast.”

Bitfinex has repeatedly promised investors it would produce a full audit of its books to prove it has US dollars on deposit to calm fears, but no audit has taken place.

Over the weekend, Bitfinex confirmed speculation it had severed ties with its auditor, Friedman LLP, which had earlier scrubbed all references to Bitfinex from its website. “We confirm that the relationship with Friedman is dissolved,” a spokesman told industry website CoinDesk.

“Given the excruciatingly detailed procedures Friedman was undertaking for the relatively simple balance sheet of tether, it became clear that an audit would be unattainable in a reasonable time frame.

“As tether is the first company in the space to undergo this process and pursue this level of transparency, there is no precedent set to guide the process nor any benchmark against which to measure its success.”

Mr Gerard said the market was worried that tether didn’t complete its audit. “They say they’re fully backed, but they haven’t done a full in-depth audit,” he said.

“People don’t seem to be able to redeem tethers for US dollars at all. The tether web page says they’re ‘subject to frequent professional audits’ — so they need to release those audits, and calm the market.”

Meanwhile, criticism of tether and Bitfinex is growing.

Julian Hosp, co-founder of cryptocurrency payment service TenX, has listed tether as one of four big risks, with a 10 per cent likelihood of a crash this year which could pull the market down by 15 per cent.

“Tether gets issued out of thin air through a very complex system, supposedly whenever $US1 is deposited in return,” he wrote on CNBC.

“At the moment, tether is priced at around $US1.6 billion, which supposedly means $US1.6 billion actually went into that cryptocurrency.

“According to some reports, however, there isn’t actually $US1.6 billion backing up the token. Since many exchanges and other cryptocurrencies are connected to tether, any finding that its stated value is untrue would send the market into a significant decline.”

Professor Nicholas Weaver from UC Berkeley’s International Computer Science Institute has warned of a “bloodbath” in cryptocurrency prices if the “Tether printing press ever breaks”.

“At current prices, net new bitcoin requires $US18 million of net new $ flowing in to maintain the price,” he wrote on Twitter. “Yet there is a net $US100 million per day of fake $s in the form of tethers.”

New York University professor of economics Nouriel Roubini agreed. “Indeed tether/USDT used to manipulate bitcoin prices,” he wrote.

“Without this bitcoin price would collapse by 80 per cent. Regulators asleep at the wheel while $US2 billion of fake $ created, half of it since December. Not even North Korea created so many fake $ backed by nothing.”

Tether and Bitfinex have been contacted for comment. In a recent statement, the company rejected online criticisms as “misinformation” spread by “a small group of individuals”.

“We have also read online about many outlandish conspiracy theories suggesting that tether is not backed 1:1 by currency on deposit with banking institutions,” the statement said. “Any such claim is unequivocally false, and the audits will bear that out.

“The company considers all tethers outstanding to be liabilities for presentation on the balance sheet for which there is always an equivalent amount (or greater) held in assets to back those presented liabilities. Full stop.”

In December, Bitfinex threatened legal action against Bitfinex’d.

“To date, every claim made by these bad actors has been patently false and made simply to agitate the cryptocurrency ecosystem,” the company said in a statement at the time. “As a result, Bitfinex has decided to assert all of its legal rights and remedies against this agitator and his associates.”

Comment by 2banana
2018-01-29 10:50:40

What do you call a fad backed by thin air?

PONZI?

And least you could snuggle with a beanie baby…

*****

In effect, Bitfinex has been accused of creating tether out of thin air, without corresponding US dollar deposits, in order to pump up the price of bitcoin. While Bitfinex insists all new “USDT” are backed by real dollar deposits, new tether issuances have coincided with dips in the price of bitcoin.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-29 23:46:06

“Tether and Bitfinex have been contacted for comment. In a recent statement, the company rejected online criticisms as “misinformation” spread by “a small group of individuals”.”

One gigantic fraud - the entire cryptocurrency market.

 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-29 10:54:41

Buh-bye, McCabe. Do not pass go, do NOT collect a pension. I’m sure you’ll find a nice job in the private sector trafficking stuff, weasels like you always do. You are a disgrace.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-29 11:03:47

House Intel Committee meets at 5pm ET today.

#ReleaseTheMemo

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-29 11:11:52

Trump should read out the memo at SOTU.

 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-29 11:50:34

“do NOT collect a pension.”

Using vacation and sick time to get across the lifelong bene Finish Line.

Comment by tresho
2018-01-29 15:42:57

Many WWII Soviet spies (the ones who enabled Uncle Joe Stalin to built an exact duplicate of the first tested US atomic bomb, so exact the Soviets had to import US machine tools to create it, their equipment being metric) were not ID’d until after the Soviet Union collapsed and the Venona papers were made public. Probably many others were never identified & died still collecting their US pensions.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2018-01-29 12:19:08

Fed Pensions are not an on/off switch where you go from no pension to full pension. He would have gotten some pension even if he was thrown off payroll today. It just wouldn’t be the max pension. Note that the article says “full” pension” and “full benefits.” Heck, I qualify for a pension now. It wouldn’t be much and I wouldn’t start receiving it until I’m 62, but it’s not nothing.

Sick days do not count as regular days. However, vacation days do, even in private sector. I was laid off from a private sector company. They had to pay me for unused vacation.

The true Fed Benefits are job security and health insurance. The other bennies aren’t much different from private sector.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-01-29 12:28:45

I was laid off from a private sector company. They had to pay me for unused vacation.

One thing I’ve noticed recently is that now private sector companies pay you for the vacation time, but you are NOT an employee after the day of the layoff. It used to be that they would send you home, but you were legally an employee until the vacation time was used up too. Which was nice both for benefit reasons as well as being able to look for a job while still “employed”.

How does it work in govt these days?

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-29 12:54:20

However, vacation days do, even in private sector. I was laid off from a private sector company. They had to pay me for unused vacation.

Yes, that is true. You get paid for unused vacation days in the private sector.

However, in the public sector, due to “pension spiking” you get paid for those vacation days more than once.

Let’s say your salary is $100k per year and you “saved” up vacation worth another $10k. And your formula is, let’s say, 65% of the average of your last three years.

So, without vacation, the pension would be $65k per year.

With vacation included, it goes to $67k

With government guarantee on the extra money, it’s worth a lot. At a 2.5% rate, you need to put out $40k in 10-year treasuries to get $1k per year of income. So the sold back vacation gives you $10k cash, plus value of $80k on your pension.

You don’t get paid once on the vacation you sell back like in the private sector…you get paid 9 times.

You might quibble with the cost of an annuity, but the concept is the same. You get paid a multiple of your unused vacation through the pension formula.

And it gets to be even more fun if you buy yourself more years of service by using your sick leave in that manner.

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Comment by ChuckA
2018-01-29 16:15:47

The thing now is PTO - paid time off - use it or lose it.

My first “Real” job the employer closed shop (worked there 1 week short of 10 years) - was nice to get paid my unused vacation - had no severance and basically a one week notice. Lucky me I had no money to vacation - so I had three weeks they owed me (one more week and would of had 4..).

The job previous to where I’m at now - I had 5 weeks PTO. Took a couple of days early in the year and was laid off at the end of April - 23 days / hours of PTO down the tubes. They had a decent severance package which gave me about 5 1/2 months of pay plus a check for Cobra..

Where I work now they are converting us to PTO from vacation. Three weeks PTO now for those starting out vs two weeks vacation - think it took 3yrs to get 3weeks vac? The fourth week you get at 10yr instead of 12yr - something like that. And it is accrued time - if you take time off then skip out for a new job - you might owe the company money if you have not accrued enough PTO for the time you took.

There was the story of guy who retired long before I was here - he had one year of carry over vacation - so he was on the payroll for another year. That set some peeps off - new policy one week carry over year to year.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-29 14:36:38

A lot of companies are switching to non accrued, “unlimited” vacation; which is done to say paying out unused days.

As for the “unlimited” part, I’m sure that if you take off 8 weeks a year it will get noticed and you will float to the top of the “to layoff” list.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2018-01-29 16:12:19

Yeah I’ve wondered about that. Still wouldn’t mind trying it though. Instead everywhere I go lately makes you take PTO days for sick time. And I’ve already talked about the resistance to working from home. So everyone works sick…

 
 
Comment by oxide
2018-01-29 15:45:09

At the private sector, I believe I was a legal employee until the vacation was used up — I don’t remember.

As for the fedgov, the formula is 1% * #years * high 3. The maximum vacation we can save up is 30 days. Using your $100K guy at 30 years:

Pension with no vacation: $30,000
Pensions with vacation: $31,200.
Difference over 25 years pension (age 90): makes extra $30K in inflated dollars.

I dunno, is that gold-plated?

Sick days. If you work 30 years and accrue the max: “If you have 2087 hours (260 days, 1 year) at the time you retire your annuity increases by 2% of your average high three salary.” So, even if you max out your sick days, you now make $2K more a year. Over 25 years, that’s $50K. However, if you actually took your sick days off, that would cost the gov a full year salary, or $100K.

Is this gold-plated?

Also remember that the equivalent private sector salary is higher (for educated-level) employee, so they make more money while they work, which can be grown into almost as much as the gov pension.

So as I said before, the true benefit to a fed job is in the job security and the health insurance, not the pension. We are not police or teachers.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-29 15:48:04

Housing Donk…. Housing.

Clearwater, FL Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/clearwater-fl/market-trends/

 
Comment by tresho
2018-01-29 15:49:48

the true benefit to a fed job is in the job security and the health insurance, not the pension. We are not police or teachers.
Hardly anyone other than government workers now can get a pension, you are distorting the real situation.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-29 17:17:34

Is this gold-plated?

Also remember that the equivalent private sector salary is higher (for educated-level) employee, so they make more money while they work, which can be grown into almost as much as the gov pension.

1. The idea is that the gov pensions are supposed to be paid for from deductions from gov employees. State and local are not 1%…they are closer to 2% or 3% for some. The games played (pension spiking, selling sick leave for time, etc.) throw the math off and make it so the pensions are far more underfunded than they would be other. The backstop are non-government employees, who need to save for their own retirement.

I don’t care whether it’s “gold plated” or not. The system is abused–government made deals with unions who gave them donations, and employees manipulate the system to the detriment of people who can’t benefit. If the pension system is underfunded, the government employees who benefit should pay in more until it is fully funded. Not taxpayers.

2. I’m not so sure your comment about government employees being paid less than a like-skilled private employee is based on current data. I’ve heard the opposite.

 
 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-29 13:05:19

oxide

I should have said that I heard that on FOX News.

Although I have heard of County Fireman using sick and vacation days to close out careers you obviously know a lot more about Fed Pensions and private for that matter than I ever will.

 
 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-01-29 17:11:12

Gov workers always get fired heir pretensions,see Lois Lerner

Comment by Taxpayers
2018-01-29 19:03:17

Whoops ,they always get their pensions,see Lois Lerner

 
 
 
Comment by CryptoNick
2018-01-29 12:13:28

“According to Zillow, 2017, as a whole, saw the lowest number of new homes sold since 1992, not counting the housing bust and subsequent recovery. ‘[The new home-sales] numbers are not the way we would have liked to see 2017 end for the new home sales market,’ Zillow’s Aaron Terrazas said. ‘[2017] has proven to be a two-step-forward, one-step-back process in getting building activity to where it really needs to be. Big gains in one month are often revised down in the next.’”

Does anyone recall what it was that led to such a low level of new home sales back in 1992?

I do. We were in the middle of a bad recession, that lasted through about 1996 in California, and triggered a wave of job losses, foreclosures, and falling home prices.

Luckily this time is different.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-01-29 12:31:56

Yep. I graduated from college in the spring of 1995 and job hunting as a new engineer with lots of military connections but no engineering connections was very difficult that year. It was the end of the year before I got an offer and started January of 96. The company tried to go public and laid off the new people 8 months later but suddenly it was easy to get a job by fall of 96 and I was choosing between offers.

 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-29 12:22:18

If you never commit the financial mistake of buying an overpriced house, then you will never have to suffer from the resulting buyer’s remorse.

Home buyer’s remorse: why you get it and how to get past it
By Elyssa Kirkham
Published: Jan 29, 2018 10:09 a.m. ET
Welcome to the neighborhood
AFP/Getty Images
There may be something about the house or neighborhood you don’t like.

After buying my first home in December 2016, I expected to experience nothing but positive feelings and a sense of accomplishment.

Instead, I felt unease, fear, and self-doubt. “Did we make the right decision buying this home?” I often wondered in the months after moving in.

I didn’t realize my homebuying “hangover” wasn’t unusual. In fact, according to a survey from Trulia, 51% of homeowners regretted something about the home they bought or the process of choosing it.

It can be tricky to transition from picky buyer to happy homeowner — but it’s possible. Here’s how you can cure the four most common causes of homebuyer’s remorse.

Comment by Puggs
2018-01-29 14:54:49

5. You bought at the top of the housing market.

What to do about it:

Well, here you have a couple options here. You can wait 10 years for the market to bottom and come back to settle that nagging reality you OVERPAID. Or stop paying your mortgage and live for free until the bank gets around to asking for the keys back. The last option might be your best solution since rents will be cheaper and it will take 10 years for your credit to heal in order to repeat the entire process all over again.

Comment by tresho
2018-01-29 15:46:36

You can wait until after you die for the RE market to bottom and your tormented ghost can finally stop haunting that house you overpaid for so many decades earlier. FIFY!

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-29 18:47:37

Or wait ten years.

Oh wait… I just did that, and home prices are as crazy as ever since the Housing Bubble began inflating over two decades ago.

Comment by rms
2018-01-30 13:28:41

Hehe… a permanent plateau?

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Comment by HousingNihilist
2018-01-29 12:56:48

Let’s play my NEW GAME. 2005 or 2018???? Who want’s to play folks, big money at stake. Our FIRST QUESTION….2005 or 2018?

“Yet, despite warnings of a bubble, the inventory of available houses is down from a year ago, which seems like a reasonable cause for price increases. With builders in some areas unable to keep up with demand for new construction, the residential real estate game has a certain musical-chairs quality these days. Buyers may feel rushed, but they still need to look before they leap.”

Comment by Puggs
2018-01-29 14:44:08

I’m going for 2005, Nihli.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-01-29 13:21:10
 
Comment by messagetorudy
2018-01-29 14:13:12

The Crappys, er, I mean grammys bombed - again. People sick of dindus grunting their 3rd grade vocabulary, all financed and broadcast worldwide by (((them))) to ghettoize everyone.

The whole s-tshow cant die fast enough. Everything the left touches gets destroyed. Music, sports (whos going to watch those losers take a knee on sunday?), art, the economy - every major city and blue state is a black hole - in more ways than one, lol.

Comment by tresho
2018-01-29 15:56:43

Music, sports (whos going to watch those losers take a knee on sunday?), art, the economy
This Disney video clip could now apply to any or all of what you referred to:
https://youtu.be/SLCuL-K39eQ

 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-29 16:30:41

Things are looking pretty grim all around. Both Schiff and Pelosi look like full blown lunatics.

Comment by MacBeth
2018-01-29 17:48:09

Whaddaya mean, “look”?

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-29 16:41:09

Apparently, dindu music is now more popular than rock-n-roll. I can’t help but laugh at SJW’s who gyrate to “songs” about b!tches and hoes.

Comment by messagetorudy
2018-01-29 17:07:07

Its not more popular, its just whats pushed by the tribe, because they like their slaves. Its why music sales are declining - yet another industry killed by the left. They kill off tv and movies, we just switch to videos online of things that interest us - until they try and choke that off as well. They hate freedom and crave control. That is why they are fascists.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2018-01-29 17:44:32

and none of these multi millionaire rappers or sports clowns will fund an inner city school to teach kids to read write and speak English. I always said if this idea takes hold jayZ would go bankrupt.

 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-29 20:55:43

“dindu music”

Careful, now, Colorado. Mighty Mike is back under the handle Tea Party Patriot. He’ll be reporting you to the Southern Poverty Law Center for wrong-think.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-30 07:36:27

I think we can express our distaste at a certain genre of music without devolving into racial pejoratives.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-30 07:55:29

There’s a lot of dindu music that’s real good. 70s stuff.

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Comment by oxide
2018-01-30 05:11:24

Bruno Mars did a duet with some disposable rapper girl at the Grammys. I tried to watch it on YouTube. I made it to 49 seconds. Not only is today’s rap/R&B (IMO) much worse than most other music; it’s much worse than it used to be.

I also note that rapper girl was somewhat scantily clad while Bruno Mars was fully covered.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-01-30 10:54:09

I didn’t see it. But Bruno has serious talent and is at the right place at the right time to leverage it. IMO he’s as good as anybody, past or present. He gets to do what he wants. It’s doubtful that rapper girl is so fortunate. But we’ll find out soon enough.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-30 14:58:23

I would agree with you Carl.

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Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-29 16:37:04

Published in the last 15 minutes:

http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/371280-house-intel-votes-to-make-nunes-memo-public

Deep State need to start going to prison.

Comment by Saltwater Catfish
2018-01-29 18:51:49

Given a choice, do you think DJT would rather face an interview with Mueller or with a Grand Jury?

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-29 21:11:39

Russ, is that you? Between you and Mikey, it’s starting to look like a homecoming around here. Well, you always did say you’d be back. Look at it this way: we might just get some justice for Finicum.

 
 
 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-29 17:15:16

Why building more homes will not solve Britain’s housing crisis
Ann Pettifor

The Guardian
27 Jan 2018

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/27/building-homes-britain-housing-crisis

Everyone – from the government, to housing charities, to housebuilders – has bought into the conventional wisdom that the dysfunction that racks our housing market is a matter of demand and supply. We’re not building enough houses, so house prices have been sent rocketing, taking home-ownership out of reach for growing numbers of young people. But in reality, our housing problems are not a simple feature of supply and demand. Rather, our housing market has a bitcoin problem.

So, rather counterintuitively, building more houses is not the right prescription. House prices won’t fall until the tide of cash flowing into the market abates, for example by tightening mortgage credit, or shrinking the pool of buy-to-let investors. That may already be starting to happen as real incomes continue to fall, the Bank of England toughens up buy-to-let mortgages, and stamp duty rises are phased in for second properties.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-29 17:28:04

I think Ann is right on the money when it comes to potential actions that the UK government should take to restore some measure of sanity to their bubble:

So the key to making housing more affordable in this country is not to build more, but to stop the flow of cash flooding into expensive areas. Build more without doing this, and prices won’t fall: the market will simply absorb more cash.

The best way to do this is through the tax system. First for consideration should be a property speculation tax (PST), as in Germany. This could be used to levy punitive rates on speculators, or those who own second homes and empty properties, encouraging them to invest their cash elsewhere.

Second, the government must manage speculative capital flows in and out of Britain by taxing them through a Tobin tax on global financial transactions. Corrupt politicians in the poorest countries and oligarchs in weak economies shift often-fraudulent cash into stable jurisdictions such as the UK. These mobile flows of capital inflate the price of Britain’s fixed supply of land.

 
 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-29 17:33:25

Trump gears up for $1 trillion infrastructure plan, but GOP lawmakers push back on the idea of a gas tax

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/28/gop-pushes-back-on-gas-tax-as-trump-infrastructure-plan-takes-shape.html

I think the Trump administration’s idea of raising the gas tax to pay for infrastructure is maybe the best idea they’ve had yet. It’s a direct tax and many improvements are needed and necessary. Infrastructure has broad bi-partisan support and paying for it rather than adding to the deficit seems prudent. Of course congress that is in the pocket of fossil fuel lobbyists are going to fight this tooth and nail, even if it makes sense.

 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-29 17:39:49

Ha-ha, Andy’s all pithed off and threatened to “torch the FBI” if he doesn’t get his full pension and benefits.

https://truepundit.com/mccabe-threatens-torch-fbi-forced-resignation-fbi-insider-poised-spill-beans/

He’s already torched the FBI, so what’s the point? Stomp those little feet, Andy.

The is the guy who said “First we f*ck Flynn, then we f*ck Trump”.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-29 17:50:26

And just to add to my post, this guy has come unglued, and rightly so. Imagine what life would have been like in the US if this nasty prick had remained in place, or become head of the FBI under Hillary? Which he surely would have, considering Hillary was none to happy with Comey. McCabe would have been head of her “secret police”, with unlimited power to snuff anyone he wanted.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 00:01:01

What I don’t understand is how the FBI was apparently co-opted by Democrats. I’m sure there are plenty of Repubs within their ranks. Something’s missing in this entire story because it just seems so far-fetched that the entire bureau would all of a sudden be operating entirely in the interests of one party.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 06:39:47

Here’s what’s missing: The FBI operates in its OWN interests. In that respect, it is apolitical. The FBI doesn’t care about Republican, Democrat or anything else. It will align with anyone or anything that allows it to grow and gather more power. I would imagine Hillary with her massive, international charity fraud was very appealing to some in the agency.

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Comment by BlueSkye
2018-01-29 18:24:13

Rental Watch

” …vacancy rates. THIS is the best metric for whether or not there is enough housing.”

Yeah, well, “Inventory” is what the Realtors key in on and so do you. I hate to break this to you:

If an apartment is not for rent it is not counted as vacant by the Census.

If a house is not for sale it is not counted as vacant by the Census.

Your best metric is only concerning what people want to sell, not what’s actually out there. The house I bought was empty for six years but it wasn’t part of the vacancy statistic because it wasn’t “for sale”. It was empty, defaulted, surplus, overgrown, but it wasn’t Census “vacant”.

I hope you can stop crowing about vacancy rates. They will explode when the flight for the exits happens, just like last time.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-29 18:33:12

Not only that, how many years do we have to suffer this shortage baloney? Every day proves this crow glutton wrong but yet he keeps on.

Comment by azdude
2018-01-29 18:43:54

i hear your ex kgb?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-29 19:18:56

And former CIA, retired and residing in your empty skull… Rent-free.

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Comment by jeff
2018-01-29 23:13:53

“i hear your ex kgb?”

i hear your ex kgb did what?

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Comment by palmetto
2018-01-29 20:47:22

I heard it ALL the time when I lived in the Tampa area, and now they’re starting to parrot it up here, in some areas. Inventory is tight! Inventory is tight! What a load. There’s PLENTY of inventory, it’s just that the banks are holding onto it, sucking every last fee they can get out of the taxpayers. HODL!

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-29 23:18:31

Ben, maybe it’s time for the ban hammer

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 00:04:25

After the KGB comment, I agree.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-30 05:13:08

Now that is priceless coming from you.

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-01-29 18:52:48

Napa County, CA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Housing Correction Expands Across State

https://www.zillow.com/napa-county-ca/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

 
Comment by rms
2018-01-29 19:24:16

Any opinions about this media outlet? Thanks!

About Axios
https://www.axios.com/about

Comment by Mr. Banker
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-29 21:56:56

“The company launched with a mission statement that consisted of, “Media is broken—and too often a scam.” It planned to focus on “business, technology, politics, and media trends”.[2] Furthermore, they disavowed the use of banner ads, pop-ups and clickbait titles, using native advertising instead. The article style was focused on brevity, clear structure and often features bullet points.[6]“

 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-29 20:19:46

Anti-PC Professor Suing NYU Speaks Out

PATRICK GRANGER
10:45 PM 01/15/2018

Michael Rectenwald — the PC-bashing, “deplorable” New York University professor behind the Twitter handle @antipcnyuprof — is suing NYU and four of his colleagues for defamation, alleging that he was subjected to a campaign of ostracism and harassment when he criticized campus political correctness.

Rectenwald stated that on Facebook, one former friend of his (a Marxist feminist) bragged that by the end of her course, “every student was now an avowed Marxist feminist.”

“I was the only person that demurred,” he remarked of the post. “I said, ‘I have to beg to differ that this is the objective of any course.’ If you have a teleological model of pedagogy in which you are trying to steer students to a particular end, that is not teaching. That is actually indoctrination. You can do that if you have a political party, but this is absolutely not the role of education, at all. This is absolutely anti-education and anti-intellectual.”

http://dailycaller.com/2018/01/15/michael-rectenwald-nyu-lawsuit/

 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-29 21:08:18

What a day! Andy McCabe gets the boot (and throws a hissy fit) and the Intel Committee votes to release the memo.

Maybe now housing will finally crater in earnest.

 
Comment by Saltwater Catfish
2018-01-29 23:46:33

Suggested new digital currency brand name: WeedCoin. It’s gonna happen… just a question of when.

Weed and Bitcoin Are Luring Millennials to Wall Street
By Ryan Sit On 1/29/18 at 12:15 PM
http://www.newsweek.com/marijuana-weed-cryptocurrency-bitcoin-stock-market-wall-street-millennials-794035

Cannabis stocks and cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin helped fuel an explosion of millennial investors on Wall Street in 2017.

The neophyte investors under 35 spiked 72 percent last year, TD Ameritrade’s CEO Tim Hockey told Business Insider last week. Hockey said marijuana and blockchain stocks helped entice millennials, who have been historically distrustful of the market that crashed during either their formative years or as they entered the workforce.

“Our new accounts opened by millennials are up 72 percent year-over-year,” Hockey told Business Insider’s Graham Rapier. “Clearly, the two biggest stories of the quarter were the sectors of cryptocurrency and cannabis…. That has driven the skewing of our new accounts opened to the younger trader and younger investor.”

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 03:41:14

Is it possible that bond vigilantes will act to take away the punchbowl if central bankers will not?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 03:43:44

The Financial Times
US Treasury Bonds
Global bond sell-off rattles markets
The pressure on bonds is unsettling the stock market
Rising bond yields make borrowing more expensive
Robin Wigglesworth in New York and Emma Dunkley in Hong Kong
4 hours ago

The pressure on the global bond market reverberated across equities on Tuesday, with Europe and Asia taking their cues from a sharp drop on Wall Street amid concern that the roaring stock market rally could be vulnerable to a reversal.

Germany’s Dax dropped 0.8 per cent, France’s CAC fell 0.3 per cent and the FTSE 100 slipped by a similar margin in early trading following declines in Asia for Japan’s Topix index, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index and South Korea’s Kospi.

Mounting optimism over the strength of the world economy has buoyed equities, which have enjoyed their best start to a year since 1987, but stirred concerns that long-dormant inflation might finally make a comeback and force central banks to turn more aggressive.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 03:51:54

Financial Times
Global Market Overview Sovereign Bonds
Equity markets spooked after bonds sell-off
Dollar regains ground, Brent oil slips further
Alice Woodhouse in Hong Kong and Kate Allen in London
an hour ago
Tuesday 09:20 GMT
What you need to know
- Bonds edge back from Monday’s losses
- Equity markets trend lower after Wall Street retreat
- Dollar regains ground following last week’s slide
- Brent oil slips further after falling below $70 a barrel
- Markets wait for State of Union address
Overview

The international sell-off in government bond markets is rippling through into stocks, as sovereign yields hold on to some of their losses in Tuesday’s trading.

European markets are following Asia-Pacific equities and Wall Street downwards on Tuesday morning as bond yields in major markets including the US and Germany trade around yesterday’s levels.

The FTSE 100, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax and the pan-European Stoxx 600 are all down 0.5 per cent.

Asia-Pacific markets also struggled. Japan’s Topix index lost 1.2 per cent, its biggest fall this year. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index is off 1.1 per cent, its sharpest fall in nearly eight weeks.

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both closed 0.7 per cent lower on Monday, after notching record highs on Friday.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury hit 2.733 per cent in Asian trading on Tuesday, after reaching 2.727 per cent, the highest level since April 2014, the previous day. It has since pared its losses, settling just below 2.69 per cent. Yields rise when prices fall.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 05:13:25

#Business News
January 29, 2018 / 6:40 PM / Updated 2 hours ago
World stocks sucked under by bond market breakout
Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks were in their biggest two-day dive in six months on Tuesday and commodities were also jammed in reverse, as rising U.S. borrowing costs cooled financial markets’ euphoric start to the year.

The move above 2.7 percent by U.S. Treasury yields - the benchmark for world lending rates - helped the dollar off the canvas though that was part of the issue.

Oil slid back below $70, metals buckled and Asian stocks saw their biggest fall since early December after Wall Street had suffered its largest drop in five months after worries about Apple’s iPhone sales.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-30 05:58:01

‘Robert Mueller’s forgotten surveillance crime spree’

‘When Robert Mueller was appointed last May as Special Counsel to investigate Trump, Politico Magazine gushed that “Mueller might just be America’s straightest arrow — a respected, nonpartisan and fiercely apolitical public servant whose only lifetime motivation has been the search for justice.” Most of the subsequent press coverage has shown nary a doubt about Mueller’s purity. But, during his 11 years as director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Mueller’s agency routinely violated federal law and the Bill of Rights.’

‘Mueller took over the FBI one week before the 9/11 attacks and he was worse than clueless after 9/11. On Sept. 14, 2011, Mueller declared, “The fact that there were a number of individuals that happened to have received training at flight schools here is news, quite obviously. If we had understood that to be the case, we would have — perhaps one could have averted this.” Three days later, Mueller announced: “There were no warning signs that I’m aware of that would indicate this type of operation in the country.” His protestations helped the Bush administration railroad the Patriot Act through Congress, vastly expanding the FBI’s prerogatives to vacuum up Americans’ personal information.’

‘Deceit helped capture those intrusive new prerogatives. The Bush administration suppressed until the following May the news that FBI agents in Phoenix and Minneapolis had warned FBI headquarters of suspicious Arabs in flight training programs prior to 9/11. A House-Senate Joint Intelligence Committee analysis concluded that FBI incompetence and negligence “contributed to the United States becoming, in effect, a sanctuary for radical terrorists.” FBI blundering spurred the Wall Street Journal to call for Mueller’s resignation, while a New York Times headline warned: “Lawmakers Say Misstatements Cloud F.B.I. Chief’s Credibility.”

‘But the FBI was off and running. Thanks to the Patriot act, the FBI increased by a hundredfold — up to 50,000 a year — the number of National Security Letters (NSLs) it issued to citizens, business, and nonprofit organizations, and recipients were prohibited from disclosing that their data had been raided. NSLs entitle the FBI to seize records that reveal “where a person makes and spends money, with whom he lives and lived before, how much he gambles, what he buys online, what he pawns and borrows, where he travels, how he invests, what he searches for and reads on the Web, and who telephones or e-mails him at home and at work,” the Washington Post noted. The FBI can lasso thousands of people’s records with a single NSL — regardless of the Fourth Amendment’s prohibition of unreasonable warrantless searches.’

‘The FBI greatly understated the number of NSLs it was issuing and denied that abuses had occurred, thereby helping sway Congress to renew the Patriot Act in 2006. The following year, an Inspector General report revealed that FBI agents may have recklessly issued thousands of illegal NSLs. Shortly after that report was released, federal judge Victor Marrero denounced the NSL process as “the legislative equivalent of breaking and entering, with an ominous free pass to the hijacking of constitutional values.”

‘Rather than arresting FBI agents who broke the law, Mueller created a new FBI Office of Integrity and Compliance. The Electronic Freedom Foundation, after winning lawsuits to garner FBI reports to a federal oversight board, concluded that the FBI may have committed “tens of thousands” of violations of federal law, regulations, or Executive Orders between 2001 and 2008.’

http://thehill.com/opinion/criminal-justice/371206-robert-muellers-forgotten-surveillance-crime-spree

Read on, it gets worse.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 06:52:36

I read that yesterday and it just about made me numb with the horror of what this agency is and the people involved.

I was watching one of Dick Morris’s political commentary videos. He remembers the whole Ken Starr special counsel proceeding. Starr regularly released the details of the money spent by his office. Fun fact: Mueller has declined to do so.

 
 
Comment by CryptoNick
2018-01-30 06:56:49

Stamp those feet!

companies
A Louisville investor says he was duped into a Bitcoin investment scheme. Now he’s suing
Grace Schneider | Louisville Courier Journal
Updated 2 minutes ago
https://www.courier-journal.com/story/money/companies/2018/01/30/bitcoin-investment-scheme-bitconnect-louisville-man-suies/1077288001/

A Louisville man has sued a British company in federal court, alleging he was scammed by a fraudulent investment scheme linked to the cryptocurrency market.

The action filed in U.S. District Court in the Western District of Kentucky is at least the second suit by investors seeking to recover funds paid to Bitconnect, a trading platform that shut down earlier this month after securities regulators in Texas and North Carolina issued cease and desist orders. A similar federal suit by six investors is pending in the Southern District of Florida.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 07:36:03

No article about Bitconnect would be complete without the Bitconnect Carlos music video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhyAREaWfyU

 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 07:53:00

Usually a stock market selloff triggers a flight to quality into long-term bonds. This time is different, as the yield curve is steepening while the stock market tanks — a perfect storm for myriad retirees in so-called “retirement income funds.” The flight to quality is into short-term bonds, as nobody trusts the central bankers’ commitment to take away the punchbowl.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 08:18:14

Could the Fed provide a little muscle here?

Dow on pace for worst daily drop in 8 months, off more than 340 points at low

Long-dated Treasury yields resume rise, but short-dated bond yields trade lower
By Mark DeCambre
Published: Jan 30, 2018 8:18 a.m. ET

Short-dated Treasury yields edged lower on Tuesday while longer dated yields resumed a climb ahead of an important State of the Union address from President Donald Trump. The moves for U.S. government paper also come as the Federal Reserve is set to kick off its two-day policy meeting with an updated outlook due Wednesday.

How are Treasurys performing?

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.73%) was up 1 basis point at 2.705%, compared with 2.695% late Monday in New York. The benchmark note’s yield rose to a high at 2.727% in the previous session, its highest since April 2014, according to WSJ Market Data Group.

 
Comment by azdude
2018-01-30 08:44:53

btfd

 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 09:01:22

Swamp Donkey?

 
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