January 30, 2018

Weep Not For Them

A report from the Daily Evergreen in Washington. “I’ll admit I’m extremely skeptical when it comes to housing prices in Washington. There are a few apartments I saw while browsing Craigslist that blew my mind. $1,365 for a top floor unit at the Armory Apartments? DABCO’s downtown luxury lofts? To be fair, the pictures showed some dang nice apartments. My confusion was … why here? Who is their target audience? I mean, this is Pullman, not Chicago or Manhattan.”

“The Armory Apartments, owned by Kolde Properties, share similar amenities to the DABCO lofts and therefore a similar audience. CEO Judy Kolde explained she bought the old National Guard building primarily for her hot yoga studio, but saw potential in the unused space.” ‘Let’s just say you come here as a faculty member moving from Brooklyn,’ Kolde said. ‘They’ll look for something like they’re used to. We want to attract good professors and coaches. If you build it, they will come.’”

From the Tennessee Ledger. “Once the city thawed, out-of-town buyers from all directions awakened and descended upon Nashville’s scant inventory. Houses were swarmed with buyers. With the Airbnb craze, money was falling like manna from the sky into investors’ pockets. Much of the city’s prosperity was due to the sudden proliferation of apartment buildings, with cranes crowding the skyline. Most banks and other lenders had decided that there would be no more loans for condominiums, but it seemed any developer that could fog a mirror could revive funding for apartments.”

“Now in the eighth year of the post-recession economy, things are changing. Apartments are beginning to have vacancies with many offering two months free rent to new residents or two months free rent to residents that refer new residents. And don’t forget the free Apple television. With non-owner occupant Airbnbs in peril, there are investors who will not realize the return they need on their properties.”

“Weep not for them. They had their fun while it lasted. Investors with older homes that are long-term rentals are finding the competing apartment incentives are causing their rents to decrease, often to the point that it is not feasible to retain the properties. Look for these properties to begin to flow into the marketplace. As these homes that were former rentals drop in, buyers should beware. The owner investors have never inhabited the houses and have no idea of the shortcomings that the dwellings may have.”

From Bisnow on California. “Experts say the next recession is not a matter of if, but when. Eight years since the last recession and with no end of a healthy economy in sight, those in the industry continue to be cautiously optimistic and bullish in the local Orange County and national economy in the short term. There is one caveat — millennials will be the key to keeping the economy going and growing, commercial real estate experts said at Bisnow’s Orange County State of the Market event.”

“‘I think the traditional definition of a recession is antiquated — two years of negative [gross domestic product] growth and high unemployment rates,’ Steadfast Cos. President Ella Shaw Neyland said, adding that there have been smaller unnoticeable recessions in different sectors of the commercial real estate landscape. ‘I think there’s a new norm as far as what growth will be because I think consumer spending will be less. The millennials don’t tend to have a high income so they don’t tend to buy as much stuff. I think we’re entering a period of new normalcy but not the kind of growth we are expecting.’”

“Meyers Research principal Mollie Carmichael said it is not that millennials do not want to own homes but lack of affordability is a big factor preventing them from doing so. Orange County has to focus on housing that matches their price points, she said. ‘We need to see innovative production solutions, and if we don’t, I think we’re doomed,’ Carmichael said.”

From the Real Deal on New York. “Another slow week in the luxury residential market left January with the lowest number of contracts in six years, according to Olshan Realty’s weekly market report. There were 15 contracts signed at $4 million and above last week, ending the month’s total at 68. That represents a 29 percent decline from a year ago, and the lowest total since January 2012, a month that saw just 40 luxury deals inked.”

“Actor Bruce Willis’ home topped the list with the No. 1 contract for his duplex apartment at 271 Central Park West, which had an asking price of $17.75 million. That’s $1 million less than what he and his wife paid for it back in 2015.”

From Mansion Global on Florida. “Miami-Dade County’s luxury real estate market had a good end of 2017, as sales of property priced above $1 million surged in December, according to a report by the Miami Association of Realtors and the Multiple Listing Service. ‘Strong pent-up demand for Miami luxury single-family and condominiums fueled December’s strong home sales,’ George Jalil, chairman of the board of the Miami Association of Realtors, said in the report. ‘Luxury sellers are becoming more realistic with their asking prices, and buyers are coming off the sidelines.’”

“Luxury condos spent a median of 184 days on the market in December, 10.2% fewer than they did the same time in 2016. Luxury single-family homes, though, spent a median of 225 days on the market, an increase of 106.4% compared to the year prior.”

From WFTV in Florida. “Plans to build luxury apartments in one of Daytona Beach’s poorest neighborhoods are on hold for now. The property is less than half a mile away from Bethune Cookman University. The only sign there are any plans to build something here is a chain link fence around the property—and because of the lack of progress, some doubt the apartments will ever come.”

“Heron Development LLC published renderings of a six-story luxury apartment complex on the two-acre plot of land and presented them to the City Commission last March. Ten months later, the lot remains untouched, with no construction equipment or activity in sight. ‘It is an eyesore compared to what it was,’ said Scott Summers, who lives nearby. ‘At least it had some life. Now it’s dead.’”




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203 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-30 08:47:55

‘Kolde explained she bought the old National Guard building primarily for her hot yoga studio, but saw potential in the unused space.’

Her hot yoga studio?

‘Let’s just say you come here as a faculty member moving from Brooklyn,’ Kolde said. ‘They’ll look for something like they’re used to. We want to attract good professors and coaches. If you build it, they will come.’

Here we go again. Good luck if you loaned Judy the money for this thing.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 09:54:28

Geezuz, Pullman? This lady is certifiable.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-01-30 11:41:01

Judy Kolde

“Visionary leader with 15+ yrs of results through innovative channel strategies, indirect sales leadership and scaleable partner models.”

Translation: Judy pitches $hit.

Comment by Puggs
2018-01-30 12:46:11

Benign buzzwords and absolutely nothing to back it up.

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 12:49:11

Use whatever it is that works.

 
Comment by Puggs
2018-01-30 13:31:11

Like OPM??

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 14:25:09

Bahahahahaha … exactly like OPM.

 
 
Comment by Andrew
2018-01-30 13:17:40

Buh Buh Buh But…..Judy Researched this!

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Comment by oxide
2018-01-30 14:22:23

innovative channel strategies, indirect sales leadership and scaleable partner models.”

BINGO!!!

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Comment by BlueSkye
2018-01-30 10:59:03

https://www.pullmanarmory.com/the-lofts/

Very uninspiring. Looks like it was designed based on what was on sale at the Big Box Store.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 13:11:23

Looks cheap and institutional.

Comment by LI LI LAND
2018-01-30 18:29:57

Dear god that kitchen layout is terrible! In my house we call this look the “home depot special”.

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Comment by rms
2018-01-30 22:44:48

Looks like a terrible place to have a hangover.

 
 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 08:54:21

” — millennials will be the key to keeping the economy going and growing, commercial real estate experts said at Bisnow’s Orange County State of the Market event.”

Bahahahahaha … do you mean these guys?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MC2X-LRbkE

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-30 09:05:49

From the article:

‘As baby boomers enter the twilight of their lives, Gen X and, mostly, millennials are expected to continue to drive up the economy. While the baby boomer generation lived to work, millennials work to live, Neyland said. And that poses issues especially in housing, office and the retail sectors in Orange County. Millennials are marrying and having children later. Most opt to live in apartments and tend to work in a contract or part-time job.’

“The baby boomers built a lot of our wealth through homeownership,” Neyland said. “When you think about millennials not buying homes, that’s a challenge. And that they don’t have a traditional job with a 401(k), that’s a challenge too.”

So you are looking around wondering who is gonna take out a loan and spend 30 years funding your retirement? It wasn’t such a rock solid plan in retrospect.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 09:58:49

Relying upon the greater fool theory to run an economy and fund retirements is beyond foolish, it’s disastrous.

 
Comment by whirlyite
2018-01-30 10:53:14

This makes no sense to me - how do you afford the Class A luxury life on a part-time job?

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 10:57:38

Come see me and I will show you how it can be done.

😁

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Comment by octal77
2018-01-30 11:37:53

“…how do you afford the Class A luxury life on a part-time job?..”

I live in the OC, and a part time job will support a life-style a notch or two above pushing a shopping cart, which BTW, I see more of lately.

La la land has definitely come to the OC.

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Comment by MGSpiffy
2018-01-30 15:14:50

This might be an interesting read:

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec13/middle-class12-13.html ( What Does It Take To Be Middle Class? (December 5, 2013) )

tl;dr in 2013 he added it up what it takes to be what we consider “Middle Class” and it came out to $106k/yr which at the time was about 80th percentile for households… A little at odds with the definition of ‘Middle”

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Comment by rms
2018-01-30 17:34:30

Add a couple kids on top of the mortgage, college loans and car payments, and $106k/yr really isn’t much to brag about.

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2018-01-30 11:48:44

Gen X and, mostly, millennials are expected to continue to drive up the economy. While the baby boomer generation lived to work, millennials work to live,

This is the ONLY time GenX is mentioned in the article. Meh. Forgotten yet again.

I still think the best takedown of Millenials was from the old lady realtor in the blue spacesuit dress at some conference. Ben posted a vid a couple months ago… wish I’d bookmarked it. She nails them to the wall.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-01-30 12:08:52

IMO millennial bashing is like boomer bashing. It makes good comedy but the fact is that humans are generally the same. They do the best they can with what they’re given. Each generation has been given radically different things so you see a wide divergence in behavior.

My favorite comedy routine on the subject recently was a guy saying we’ve turned the kids into “indoor cats”. And he explains it perfectly. Check it out if you get the chance.

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 13:56:40

I disagree. There are vast differences from generation to generation, and what we’re talking about here are behavioral patterns.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 14:26:49

Misbehavioral patterns.

 
Comment by Lurker
2018-01-30 14:56:09

“We’ve turned kids into ‘Indoor cats’”

Great phrase, very apt!

“millennial bashing is like boomer bashing.”

Malcom Harris has done some great work on this subject. Including the idea that the helicopter parenting that turned kids into indoor cats was actually a form of risk management to subconsciously address rising inequality and precarity:

“Parents are told—and then communicate to their children—that their choices, actions, and accomplishments have lasting consequences, and the consequences grow by the year.”

Which is interesting in that it implies the anxiety of growing economic precarity showed itself in the parents of millennials - ie, the boomers - even while they were supposedly the great beneficiaries of the neoliberal economic order/globalism/financialization/bubblenomics. Good article here:

https://nplusonemag.com/issue-30/reviews/not-every-kid-bond-matures-2/

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-30 15:11:22

Don’t Call Me A Millennial, I’m An Old Millennial:

https://www.thecut.com/2017/04/two-types-of-millennials.html

Old Millennials, as I’ll call them, who were born around 1988 or earlier (meaning they’re 29 and older today), really have lived substantively different lives than Young Millennials, who were born around 1989 or later, as a result of two epochal events that occurred around the time when members of the older group were mostly young adults and when members of the younger were mostly early adolescents: the financial crisis and smartphones’ profound takeover of society. And according to Jean Twenge, a social psychologist at San Diego State University and the author of Generation Me: Why Today’s Young Americans Are More Confident, Assertive, Entitled—and More Miserable Than Ever Before, there’s some early, emerging evidence that, in certain ways, these two groups act like different, self-contained generations.

 
 
Comment by messagetorudy
2018-01-30 19:31:55

Carole Rodoni is the name of the woman who eviscerated the younguns, and she is one sharp cookie.

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Comment by Sean
2018-01-30 13:30:31

I always think it’s funny listening to boomers give millenials advice on money, investment and purchasing consumer goods. My Dad is a Harley guy and can’t understand why no one under 40 wants a Harley. “It’s such a fun toy and a great investment”!

HOG down 10 percent today.

Comment by Puggs
2018-01-30 16:11:54

LOL, my IRA is up 4.25% already this year. My 5 year old used car might be down 2%.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-30 08:55:23

This just in from the medical crack diaries:

‘High rent prices won’t change despite Sacramento adding more apartment units’

‘Yardi Matrix Director of Business Intelligence, Doug Ressler explained there is a much higher need for affordable housing than market rate — or upper income — housing. However, less than 10 percent of housing currently under construction is fully affordable compared to the more than 60 percent of upper mid-range housing being built.’

‘Another 20 percent of housing under construction falls under the discretionary — or high income — category. Altogether, more than 80 percent of rentals under construction would not meet the current demand for affordable housing.’

“People are not looking for penthouses, and the demand for discretionary and upper income housing is much lower,” Ressler said.’

‘Only about 20 percent of existing rentals are considered to be fully affordable but unfortunately, even affordable housing is seeing exceedingly high rental rates. Low income and low mid-range income rentals have seen a 38 percent jump in price since 2014, according to Yardi Matrix.’

‘Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg has been working to satisfy both builders and the demand. He recently proposed building 1,000 tiny over two years to alleviate the demand for affordable housing.’

‘The City of Sacramento is also working to make building easier. A slow permit process discourages builders from choosing Sacramento for construction over the risk losing money while waiting to be approved.’

‘In 2017, the City issued 2,690 building permits for housing units — including both single-family and multi-family housing, according to Kelli Trapani, Communications Coordinator for the City. The number of building permits issued by the City has significantly spiked from 341 in 2014. Once a unit is issued a building permit, it takes about six months to a year for it to be constructed and ready for move-in.’

Six months? Golly that’ll be news to some shortage meisters and crow connoisseurs around here.

‘He recently proposed building 1,000 tiny over two years’

Don’t stop there Darrel, why not bring in containers and stack them next to the tire-fire on the edge of town? Or jazz up the dumpsters? That’s some real urban living!

Comment by Young Deezy
2018-01-30 09:09:44

Mayor Steinberg also recently proposed building “tiny dwellings” ( his description made them sound like shacks) to basically warehouse the homeless, at the edge of midtown. I too, am excited at the prospect of the homeless getting tax-subsidized crack shanties in my city.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-30 09:29:48

‘Low income and low mid-range income rentals have seen a 38 percent jump in price since 2014′

Nothing to worry about here.

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-30 09:32:02

‘Low income and low mid-range income rentals have seen a 38 percent jump in price since 2014′

Nothing to worry about here.

A direct result of not enough affordable housing being built.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-30 09:39:00

Or greedy bashtards. This kind of an increase for low income people is unconscionable.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-30 09:44:49

With a proper functioning market (enough supply), those greedy bastards wouldn’t have the market power to push prices.

I know, we should institute rent control! That’ll be a great idea. More government to fix a problem caused by government.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 09:45:10

These low income people need to work harder, perhaps get second or even third jobs.

I like to think of them as becoming uniquely American.

😁

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-30 15:14:32

I remember my friends at university used to say “You can sleep when you’re dead.” Well, we now know that the less you sleep, the closer you move towards death.

 
 
Comment by whirlyite
2018-01-30 11:35:41

I can vouch for that. I live in a 35 year old Class B complex. The rent has increased approximately 30% in the last four years.

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 13:43:42

Has your pay?

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-30 13:52:31

…. yet half the cost of buying at current grossly inflated asking prices of resale housing.

 
Comment by whirlyite
2018-01-31 11:37:39

No, actually my pay dropped 20%.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-30 09:31:01

Six months? Golly that’ll be news to some shortage meisters and crow connoisseurs around here.

6 months is from the time you get a building permit. Then it’s just building a home–like anywhere else.

“A slow permit process discourages builders from choosing Sacramento for construction over the risk losing money while waiting to be approved.”

It’s the permitting process that takes a long time. CEQA, EIR, public meetings, planning commission, city council, annexation process (in some cases), etc. God help you if there is a delay in that process that requires that you redo the EIR (which can become stale if too much time passes).

The best comment that I heard regarding the process in CA is that it can take between 1 and 10 years to get land approved for housing…and that’s if the land is already designated “residential” in the general plan. I’ve experienced both ends of the spectrum.

That said, the project that took a short period of time was only for a couple of dozen homes–a pretty non-controversial approval, one that folks could largely ignore (but was also for nice homes on large lots–people love new expensive homes being built near them).

The project that was 10+ years was much larger in scope, and geared toward much more affordable housing. Not Section 8 by any stretch, and still expensive by most standards, but intended to be lower priced than other new homes in the same school district.

If the proposed development is not in the general plan as residential, the timeline is more like 3 years to never for approval.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-30 09:32:44

Usually incompetence results in poverty. Wait…

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-30 09:40:39

The sad thing is that the housing situation in CA makes landowners wealthy and makes it harder for those just scraping by to survive.

The situation is analogous to DeBeers and diamonds. If DeBeers allowed all the diamonds they possessed to flood the market, there would be plenty, and diamond prices would collapse. Knowing this, they carefully meter them out, keeping up the perception that they are “precious” and rare, thus driving up the price. The reality is that there is plenty for all.

Similarly, there is plenty of land in California suitable for housing. But the permitting processes meters is out far slower than is needed, thus keeping prices far too high.

The difference is that everyone can live without a shiny rock in their possession. Shelter from the elements is a far more necessary good.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-30 09:52:54

Walk into any building department in CA with a set of prints and walk out with a permit the same day. That’s reality so someones a lion.

 
Comment by scdave
2018-01-30 11:14:52

And the someones is YOU……..

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-30 11:42:14

Housing my good friend. Housing.

San Diego, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY On Skyrocketing Vacancy Rate

https://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92129/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart.

 
Comment by Karen
2018-01-30 11:46:55

I’m sure a bag full of cash would git ‘er done:

How a Dunkin’ Donuts bag full of cash led to the downfall of a Florida mayor

“Cooper’s fortunes have tumbled along with those of Alan Koslow, who the Sun-Sentinel called “one of the most effective and best-known attorneys and lobbyists in the state.”

Last August, Koslow pleaded guilty to hiding the source of $220,000 in illegal gambling and drug dealing. His clients in the case, prosecutors said, were “quasi-mafia figures.”

But years before that plea, investigators had used Koslow in a sting operation: one that netted Cooper.

In 2012, Koslow was contacted by people who he thought were wealthy land developers from California who were “seeking political favor” for projects in Hallandale Beach, according to court documents posted by Miami ABC-affiliate WPLG.”

 
 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 09:55:10

“A slow permit process discourages builders from choosing Sacramento for construction over the risk losing money while waiting to be approved.”

A slow permit process (or any other slow process) delays important economic signals from immediately entering into the decision making processes of decision makers. This delay results in destorted perceptions of supply and demand and thus these distorted perceptions result in shortages at some times and oversupply at other times.

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-30 10:32:54

This delay results in destorted perceptions of supply and demand and thus these distorted perceptions result in shortages at some times and oversupply at other times.

I guess I see it slightly differently…I see the approval bottleneck as one that artificially restricts supply, which, all-else-equal, artificially raises prices…and distorts market activity downstream.

In the case of diamonds, it means they are so expensive that they are used mainly in jewelry, not drill bits.

In the case of land, it means the high prices push to luxury housing, not affordable housing.

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 10:55:30

“In the case of diamonds, it means they are so expensive that they are used mainly in jewelry, not drill bits.”

I just ran across something interesting …

“… only about a quarter of all diamonds are used in fine jewelry.”

https://sciencing.com/info-8186105-diamonds-used-drills.html

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-30 11:05:13

“… only about a quarter of all diamonds are used in fine jewelry.”

Yup…the ones without a lot of flaws…there are a ton that have flaws, and so they are used for industrial purposes.

The uncut diamonds with fewer flaws are hoarded by DeBeers to keep the price high–

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2017-03-23/de-beers-diamonds-leave-london-headquarters-in-cost-cutting-drive

 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-01-30 11:30:19

Odd that you can understand held off the market with diamonds but not with housing.

 
Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-01-30 12:48:58

Diamonds are NOT scarce. “Burma” rubies are scarce. Colombian emeralds(1+carot) are scarce. Other colored stones are treated with heat to ENHANCE their color. That’s how you turn a $4000 stone into $600.
Price markups are 4X to 5X.

The overall message: A V O I D

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-30 14:55:21

Odd that you can understand held off the market with diamonds but not with housing.

It’s easy to throw a few billion worth of diamonds into a vault to keep them off the market.

I have yet to see evidence of a meaningful amount of vacant housing being held off the market. Zombie foreclosures are a small number and generally in a limited number of markets.

For fun, here is today’s update on the Census vacancy data:

https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf

The two quarter trend of rental vacancy rates rising was broken…year on year, we are flat, back down below 7%.

Homeownership rate up year on year.

Within Metropolitan Statistical Areas (large markets)
In principal Cities, vacancy rates went UP year on year from 7% to 7.3%.
In the Suburbs, vacancy rate went DOWN 6.4% to 6.2%

Outside MSAs, the vacancy rate went DOWN 8.5% to 7.9%.

There were 910k housing units added to the housing stock over the year.

1.44MM new households formed (that 910k, PLUS another ~500k).

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-30 15:06:49

With the national homeownership rate at 60 year lows it’s no surprise there 25 million excess empty and default at houses out there..

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-30 15:22:14

Diamonds are an industry that came into existence by marketing and was maintained by war, violence, and economic manipulation. It’s an industry ripe for disruption. When my wife and I got engaged, we purposely decided on not getting a diamond (not for financial reasons, but for moral ones). Now, consumers can opt for “grown diamonds” that are conflict-free. I read this great piece in The Economist a few years ago on diamonds:

Since last year, California-based Diamond Foundry has been producing lab-grown rough diamonds of a quality almost indistinguishable from those dug up from the ground, produced using chemical-vapour deposition, a technology common in semiconductors. In a plasma reactor as hot as the sun, atomised gases produce carbon atoms that attach to the crystal lattice of a natural diamond seed, or substrate, enabling a new diamond to grow. Martin Roscheisen, the firm’s boss, says productivity is the essence; his firm can grow 150-300 gems in a two-week batch, rather than just a handful previously. They can be cut as exquisitely as any diamond and are only slightly less expensive, he says

https://www.economist.com/news/business/21701497-diamond-ever-its-allure-comes-and-goes-rough

 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-01-30 15:57:41

I must say this information doesn’t add anything to understanding, as for me anyway.

What’s the point of crowing that vacancy rates were up or down in MSAs or outside of them when the article states very clearly that National Vacancy is the same as a year ago?

Here the Census says the number of households went up 400K, not 1.4M.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/families/households.html

That’s fine RW if you think there is no overhang of houses that aren’t for sale but might come to market under changing outlooks. You base a big conclusion on a small sampling of a small sliver of the “housing stock”. I think this conclusion must ignore that we have a long running mania and that people hoard things they don’t need when they believe the price will go up year after year.

I’d be interested if these magic vacancy numbers defied the RW hypothesis during the last crash. Vacancy couldn’t go up more than construction, right?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-30 17:33:52

My point about the MSA vacancy was simple–the posted articles about overdevelopment of multifamily housing is mainly about what is happening in large cities.

The MSA vacancy data bears this out…build too much in major cities? Guess what? The vacancy rate rises in those locations and articles are written about how rent concessions rise, etc. That doesn’t mean there are too many apartments being built generally…and in fact, vacancy rates have been falling everywhere other than major metros.

My household calc is simple back of napkin…I’m simply looking at the number of occupied housing units on a year over year basis. The data you provided is also from Census, but was released in November 2017.

It is worth noting that year-on-year, the increase in the number of housing units occupied through the end of Q3 2017 was only 489k (data that was released at the end of October 2017) vs. the household increase estimate from November 2017 of 405k for the whole of 2017. The year on year increase of occupied housing units as of the end of Q4 2017 was 1.5MM–it will be interesting if the Census changes their estimate of household formation for 2017 at a later date.

“I’d be interested if these magic vacancy numbers defied the RW hypothesis during the last crash. Vacancy couldn’t go up more than construction, right?”

FWIW, the increase in the number of vacant houses went up by approximately 1MM per year for a couple of years there (2005-2007)…we were building more than that.

With respect to the timing of the vacancy rate, you can see it on the front page of the Census report.

The rental vacancy rose to over 10% leading into the bubble years (people moving out of apartments and into SFR; renters who were picking strawberries were now given mortgages), and during the peak of SFH construction (from 2005-2007) homeowner vacancy rate went from below 2% up to about 3%…pretty quickly, I might add. This is a byproduct of people buying SFH and keeping them empty for speculative reasons…Casey Serin.

We were building too many homes for the people who actually wanted to occupy them, and the result was vacancy rates rising.

Post crash, rental vacancy rate went up even more for a short period of time (job losses, people moving in with roommates, etc.).

Since 2009, rental vacancy rates generally fell until we got to about 7% in 2015…then was approximately steady since then (helped by lots of multifamily development). Homeowner vacancy rate steadily fell from approximately 3% down to the current level of approximately 1.6%…a more “normal” rate for this type of housing when you look back to data from 1995 onward.

If there are people currently keeping vacant homes off the market for speculative reasons, it certainly isn’t showing up in the data as it did in 2007.

If there are too many apartments in existence for the renter population, it certainly isn’t showing up in the data either.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-30 17:41:18

“Here the Census says the number of households went up 400K, not 1.4M.”

It wasn’t a mistake. Crowman lied thinking nobody would check.

 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-01-30 18:08:15

The data…

Again, the data is only for houses for sale. A small sliver of the housing stock. And a small sampling of that. Census takers walking around some neighborhoods. Extrapolating numbers based on 2010 Census and other “factors”.

It is kind of ironic RW that you say we were building too many houses when prices were falling and that we weren’t building enough when prices were skyrocketing again in recent years.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-01-30 18:52:42

It is kind of ironic RW that you say we were building too many houses when prices were falling and that we weren’t building enough when prices were skyrocketing again in recent years.

We were building 2MM housing units per year at peak bubble. This was driven by easy money allowing speculators to buy at ever increasing prices, encouraging developers to keep on building.

The signal that there were too many homes is in the increase in vacancy data, which pre-dated the collapse in prices.

Once prices started to fall, housing starts collapsed…the emporer had no clothes.

At the moment, we have less severe increases in prices than the rise in the bubble years, but no increase in vacancy…there is a good argument that the increase in prices at the moment is less about a speculative mania, and more about lack of physical supply.

 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-01-31 09:00:50

We saw HH formation crater in 2008 along with price drops. HH formation cratered worse than home building. HH size is very flexible and is a function of how much money people have or borrow to spend on housing. Vacancy rate is a poor and lagging statistic. Wait on that and you’ll get your signals way late. Like now.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-01-30 08:55:54

Paso Robles, CA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/paso-robles-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 08:59:25

“As these homes that were former rentals drop in, buyers should beware. The owner investors have never inhabited the houses and have no idea of the shortcomings that the dwellings may have.”

Testify! I can say from hard experience that many owner investors don’t give a rat’s patootie about deferred maintenance as long as the rental checks keep coming in. And they’ve let it go for so long that they no longer have any choice but to sell, and they’re trying to get the same prices as property that has been well maintained. They blew the rent that came in over the years on other things besides the property, so they don’t have the money to fix up for new tenants and can’t charge a higher rent.

Buyer beware, indeed. I’m tracking a couple of transactions right now that demonstrate exactly this. Pending, no longer pending, pending, no longer pending and so on, as prospective buyers do their due diligence.

Comment by SW
2018-01-30 11:20:09

Investors with older homes that are long-term rentals are finding the competing apartment incentives are causing their rents to decrease, often to the point that it is not feasible to retain the properties.

This caught my eye too. I expect to see many weak handed SFR investors turn over in the next few years if renters flock to cheap apartments.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-30 09:01:11

‘With the Airbnb craze, money was falling like manna from the sky into investors’ pockets. Much of the city’s prosperity was due to the sudden proliferation of apartment buildings, with cranes crowding the skyline. Most banks and other lenders had decided that there would be no more loans for condominiums, but it seemed any developer that could fog a mirror could revive funding for apartments’

And cash-out refinance, even when they can’t sell them. Brilliant.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 09:04:23

“And cash-out refinance, even when they can’t sell them. Brilliant.”

And, ooooohhhh so profitable!

😁

 
 
Comment by ibbots
2018-01-30 09:03:13

Dallas home prices were up 7 percent from a year ago in the just-released Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

Nationwide prices in November were 6.2 percent higher than they were in the same month in 2016. “Home prices continue to rise three times faster than the rate of inflation,” S&P’s David M. Blitzer said in the report.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2018/01/30/dallas-area-home-prices-grow7-percent-latest-market-comparison

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-30 09:27:09

‘Home prices continue to rise three times faster than the rate of inflation’

And for how many years? Good thing someone is watching this situation.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 10:07:47

“Home prices continue to rise three times faster than the rate of inflation.”

Bahahahaha … all due to the availability of lots of debt and the availability lots of dummies willing to take on lots of debt.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-30 10:23:52

Is there anything the dotted line special can’t do?

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 10:31:46

It can’t promote common sense.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Karen
2018-01-30 12:01:00

Well, not quite. The article says, “Dallas-area home prices grow 7 percent”. Pretty much everything within 50 miles in any direction is the “Dallas area”.

Only the cheaper areas may have had increasing prices last year. Still lots of “investors” thinking they can make a buck.

Comment by ibbots
2018-01-30 13:48:03

Right, Case-Shiller uses the DFW MSA which consists of 13 counties IIRC. That’s a heck of a lot of ground. I don’t follow the market that closely but it sure seems like a lot of the appreciation has taken place on the lower end.

Spoke to someone recently putting a house on the market for $5M up north. I was thinking to myself ‘well you really don’t wanna sell it do you?’

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 14:39:09

My favorite is people who put their house up for sale (usually by owner) and say “I don’t HAVE to sell it”. My response to that is “Nobody HAS to sell their house.”

Always a real show-stopper as they try to grasp the meaning of what I just said.

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Comment by b
2018-01-30 12:27:45

i go down to Plano/Frisco TX often (over the past 3 years). With Toyota, Chase, Liberty Insurance moving jobs there -

prices were pushed up by folks moving from CA, NJ and Columbus OH.

However, that will peak - and folks will be left holding the bag as prices stabilize for years.

To get away from my customer, i hang out at the Starbucks at Shops @ Legacy. You should see all the overhead people (realtors, mortgage brokers, home rennovations etc) hanging out. I dont know if the bubble will last 1,2,3 or 4 years - but a reckoning is coming.

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-30 09:04:08

Realtors are liars.

 
Comment by taxpayer
2018-01-30 09:07:20

10yr 2.71
death star approches

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-30 09:25:25

I saw that.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 10:22:08

Breaking bad yield levels…

Comment by azdude
2018-01-30 10:47:45

central banks r gonna have to reverse course and do more QE so stock and home prices dont crater. Trumps presidency is on the line here.

Comment by scdave
2018-01-30 11:21:33

reverse course and do more QE ??

I would not be so sure….In fact, my opinion is that they won’t…This thing has been goosed to all high heaven with the latest goosing being the 1.5 trillion of borrowing…I think everyone realizes that air needs to be let out of this thing so we “don’t crash”…Interest rates are the best way to do it slowly…

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Comment by azdude
2018-01-30 11:30:47

yep that is the opposing view dave. this could get real interesting. there is a lot of leverage in this market.

 
Comment by b
2018-01-30 12:30:10

S&P P/E is at historic high levels. And this includes the fraud that is included in financial engineering (first example was GE that burned early in the cycle)

I dont know how this will end -

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 12:51:28

“I dont know how this will end.”

Er, badly?

 
Comment by rms
2018-01-30 17:58:01

“I dont know how this will end…”

Probably be lots of low hanging fruit unless the fed acts.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 18:58:21

Possibly will be lots of low hanging fruit until the Fed acts.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-01-30 09:48:58

Naples, FL Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Housing Correction Rolls Through Florida

https://www.movoto.com/naples-fl/market-trends/

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-01-30 09:56:00

Naples, FL Real Estate & Homes for Sale
8,782 Homes sorted by relevant listings

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Naples_FL/sby-8

Naples, FL Real Estate & Homes for Sale
8,782 Homes sorted by price reduced

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Naples_FL/sby-7

Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 10:15:35

“Naples, FL Real Estate & Homes for Sale
8,782 Homes sorted by relevant listings”

I prefer clicking Property Type “House” and sorted by “Lowest Price” for my entertainment dollars.

Comment by azdude
2018-01-30 11:07:25

do u think the shorts are gonna cover this time when the buy the dippers come back in?

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Comment by oxide
2018-01-30 11:56:48

I’m more entertained when I sort by “highest price,” but ymmv. :grin:

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 10:03:26

Are you loving the boom and expecting the crash?

Comment by azdude
2018-01-30 11:03:14

do they screw trump or rescue the market again and reverse course with more QE ? That is really the big question here. crying wolf only works so long.

Has trump done enough politicing to deserve a strong bull market?

 
 
Comment by azdude
2018-01-30 11:22:44

do u guys remember that show called the fall guy? they r gonna remake it starring djt.

Comment by ChuckA
2018-01-30 18:09:32

Best theme song ever! “I’m the unknown stuntman that makes..”

 
 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 11:28:14

Uh-oh, Sh#tcoin tanking…

https://www.coinbase.com/charts

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 11:49:14

Mr. Banker says:

Cash out that home equity and max out that credit and BUY THE DIP!

Do it today!

 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 12:32:43

Everything’s tanking today. Except Amazon. Doesn’t that strike you as odd? Why, it’s almost as if the Bezoar………

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-01-30 13:06:26

At the end of stock cycles the top tier of stocks masks the damage below.
In housing cycles, the median price gets skewed to the right side of the graph. Financing becomes costly with rising interest rates and the cash that the media told you to get rid of comes into favor again.

 
Comment by Puggs
2018-01-30 13:37:02

Buy low, sell high.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 14:38:55

Easily said, not so much done. Usually the best time to buy is when most would-be buyers are broke, terrified, or both.

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 14:47:39

“… broke, terrified, or both.”

You just described my ideal customer.

😁

 
 
 
 
Comment by CryptoNick
2018-01-30 14:32:31

Another day, another craptacular collapse in Buttcoin…

Bitcoin drops 12%, falls below $10,000 amid broad cryptocurrency sell-off

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/30/cryptocurrencies-join-the-global-financial-market-sell-off-as-bitcoin-drops-7-percent.html

Bitcoin plunges 12 percent to $9,817, according to CoinDesk.

Ethereum, ripple, stellar and other cryptocurrencies also sell off.

Benjamin Roberts, co-founder and CEO of Citizen Hex, an ethereum-focused start-up, attributes the declines to uncertainty around bitcoin’s ability to improve transaction efficiency and the future development of ethereum.

Evelyn Cheng | @chengevelyn
Published 4 Hours Ago Updated 2 Hours Ago

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-01-30 17:03:55

So the writer is:
Evelyn Cheng holds a bachelor’s degree in Journalism, Urban Design and Architecture Studies from New York University. HAHAHAHAHAH.

So CryptoNick. What’s your take on the action? I don’t think a twenty year old, Ms. Chang, born in 1997, has any knowledge of anything other than her mainland/Hong Kong daddy graciously paying for her $260k four-year tuition to NYU.
Do you go to a doctor who has a degree in urban design?

Whaddya think CryptoNick? Are you into technical analysis? Is its movement controlled? or is it jus’ the throw of the dice? Does it have a wave count? a FIB support or retracement? What indicators are YOU following ?

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-01-30 17:43:11

a FIB support…

LOL.

I’ve got an imaginary dog with a Pedigree. You’ve got an imaginary asset with an analysis. Well, not you, but whom you mock.

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 18:09:49

How much have you lost, alphonso? HOW MUCH?

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Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-01-30 18:47:22

Profits are fake because they’re not yours and losses are REAL because that’s what you want to believe. Does that sum it up? :)

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 19:40:33

HOW MUCH?

 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 20:11:20

He hasn’t lost a penny. Al has been at this game a long time and understands how it is played.

 
 
Comment by CryptoNick
2018-01-30 21:35:06

Abandon hope, all ye who enter here.

http://observer.com/2018/01/bitcoin-and-ripple-price-trends-show-cryptocurrency-bubble-will-burst/Observer

My So-Called Digital Life
Why the Bitcoin Boom Will End in Tears
By Rich Jaroslovsky • 01/30/18 7:00am
A Bitcoin Change shop in the Israeli city of Tel Aviv. Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images

During a brief sojourn in the investment world 15 or so years ago, I remember a colleague’s analysis of the then-red hot housing market. “Oh, we know how the story’s going to end,” he said. “We just don’t know when it’s going to end.”

Watching the wild ride of Bitcoin and its fellow cryptocurrencies, it’s hard to avoid the sense of deja vu. Flashing red lights are everywhere, from enormous day-to-day market gyrations to troubled companies scrambling to recast themselves as crypto plays. Let’s face it, there’s no way this all ends in anything but tears.

Now before the crypto fanboys jump me and beat me to an insensate pulp, let me make clear that I’m not questioning the potential uses or importance of cryptocurrencies and the technology, called blockchain, that underpins them.

“Cryptocurrency opens the door for revolutionary technological possibilities,” concludes PricewaterhouseCoopers, the international accounting giant. “Collaborative technology, such as blockchain, promises the ability to improve the business processes that occur between companies, radically lowering the ‘cost of trust.’”

But you don’t have to side with JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon—who last year called Bitcoin a “fraud” and “worse than tulip bulbs” before recently softening his opinion—to see that the current crypto craze is only minimally about streamlining business transactions or protecting intellectual property.

Rather, many of the get-rich-quick investors buying Bitcoin, Ripple and their brethren are simply looking for a big, easy score, with only a minimal or non-existent understanding of what they’re actually investing in, or even how currency markets work. Instead, they look at an investment that was worth $800 in January 2017 and $11,000 in January 2018 and all they see is an arrow pointing up, up, up.

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Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-01-31 12:58:50

Matt Levine said it pretty well this morning:

Being a “crypto skeptic,” to me, means thinking that the core claims of cryptocurrencies — that they can provide a viable non-governmental store of value and medium of exchange, that they can allow for the creation of new decentralized protocols for the infrastructure of the internet, that their underlying blockchain technology can revolutionize finance — are wrong or inflated.

But even if you think all of those claims are true, you might nonetheless also think that there are a whole lot of totally fraudulent schemes that are drafting off the real enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies to separate rubes from their money.

You don’t have to be a “stocks skeptic” to crack down on penny-stock pump-and-dump schemes. I don’t know if SEC Chairman Jay Clayton is a crypto skeptic in the broader sense — he might well be — but there are definitely a lot of frauds to crack down on, and they are definitely securities frauds, so it’s not surprising that he “has elevated digital currencies to the forefront of his agenda.”

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-30 11:59:16

Globalists gonna globe …

http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/30/news/economy/brexit-britain-worse-off/index.html

Britain is already worse off because of Brexit

The message is clear: unless you submit to globalists and bankers, you will pay dearly!

Of course, what they forget to say is that if you do submit to them, you will also pay dearly.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-01-30 12:39:57

Exiting an abusive relationship is usually less costly earlier than later.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-01-30 13:14:07

Capitalists bulldoze everything in sight. The irony will be if Marx was right afterall.
And it’s good to see Donald fighting it out with the tax collector in Palm beach.

Comment by CorporateShill
2018-01-31 07:37:10

Tell me of these capitalists of which you speak?

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Comment by Professor 🐻
 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-01-30 12:27:26

Santa Clarita, CA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Speculators Dump Properties

https://www.movoto.com/santa-clarita-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 13:05:53

Is it go time yet?

How will Trump spin the market downturn? Great time for a bankruptcy workout?

Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-30 13:18:12

How will Trump spin the market downturn?

It’ll depend on what happens next. If it bounces back, it’ll be waved off as “profit taking”.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 14:18:54

Something feels…well, I’ll just say it: No bounceback because:

“It’s different this time!” WAHOOOOOOOOOOOO!

 
 
Comment by Saltwater Catfish
2018-01-30 14:43:14

Obama’s fault

Comment by azdude
2018-01-30 15:15:37

Im headed out to get pizza and beer for the state of the union tonight. was the DOW tanking a sign to shape up and really let him know who is control?

Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 18:08:19

“was the DOW tanking a sign to shape up and really let him know who is control?”

At least you put “was” in there as not to be as side splitting funny and wrong as your take on the Schumer Shutdown.

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Comment by scdave
2018-01-30 17:49:01

How will Trump spin the market downturn ??

You mean during the “Fate of the Nation Address” ? You really going to watch that crap ?? If so, get medicated.

 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 13:18:38

RIP

Chief Wahoo

Comment by palmetto
Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 17:33:45

OBC

Open Borders Crowd

 
 
Comment by oxide
2018-01-30 14:21:00

I hope the Washington football team is next. And the owner too (he’s widely despised), but that’s probably not going to happen.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 17:24:12

“I hope the Washington football team is next”

Being a recovering alcoholic of Irish decent I hope the Fighting Irish logo that features a side view of a Leprechaun is next.

Oh wait no I don’t, because that would make me a lunatic Social Justice Warrior who had bought in to the Political Correctness BS being sold by the people behind the effort to force globalism on all of us.

Notre Dame Leprechaun

The Fighting Irish logo features a side view of The Leprechaun with his fists up, ready to battle anyone that comes his way. The live version is a student, chosen annually at tryouts, dressed in a cutaway green suit and Irish country hat. The Leprechaun brandishes a shillelagh and aggressively leads cheers and interacts with the crowd, supposedly bringing magical powers and good luck to the Notre Dame team.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notre_Dame_Leprechaun

 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 15:00:57

The Atlanta Brave’s Tomahawk Chop …

https://youtu.be/N4P6z_DTHf8

Jane Fonda and Ted Turner used to participate in the Tomahawk Chop until … until somebody declared the Chop to be politically incorrect; After that Jane and Ted stopped participating.

I find all this to be much amusing.

FWIW.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 15:06:34

Ooops, wrong video. The Atlanta Braves Tomahawk Chop video is here …

Watch “Atlanta Braves Tomahawk Chop” on YouTube
https://youtu.be/42DGgrH3hB0

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-30 15:15:05

Here’s a better video …

Watch “Atlanta Braves Tomahawk Chop” on YouTube
https://youtu.be/JYc_s4vLFNI

 
 
 
Comment by Lurker
2018-01-30 14:09:17

Weekly Summary: HBB-Reported Purchase Price Declines

Jan 24-30

> -60% [Manhattan - Greenwich Village / PCS LUX] (Jan18)
> -47% [Manhattan - Tribeca / PCA LUX] (Q315 - Jan18)
> -25% [London - Knightsbridge / PCS LUX] (Q3 16 - Jan18)
> -20% Manhattan / AVG LSTS LUX (Jan18)
> -20% St. Louis - Edwardsville / PCA DEV ENT (17-Jan18)
> -10 to -20% London / PCA LUX {£5mil+} (Jan18)
> -17% Los Angeles / MED SFR LUX {top 10% of sales} (Q416-Q417)
> -12% London - Knightsbridge / AVG PCA (Jan18)
> -12% Stockholm (Aug17P-Jan18)
> -8 to -10% Greater Toronto - Whitby / LST DEV EST NBY (yoy -Jan18)
> -9% London / PCA LUX {exclusive neighborhoods} (Jan18)
> [-5.3% Manhattan - Upper West Side / LPS LUX (15-Jan18)]


KEY
[Brackets indicate single sales, may not reflect overall market]
(Time range indicated when info available. If not, date of report. yoy - year-on-year, P - “peak”)
=Out of date - percent decline has been updated=
-
Methodology: AVG Average, MED Median, PIX Proprietary Index
Type: LST Listing Price - A asking S sold, SPR Sales Price, VAL Valuation,
Specialty: PCA Price Cut Asking, PCS Price Cut Sold, LPA Less Than Purchase Price Asking, LPS Less Than Purchase Price Sold, LTF List Price to Foreclosure Auction Sale
Category: CON Condo, COP Co-Op, DEV New Development, SFR Single Family
Price Bracket: ENT Entry Level, LUX Luxury, {Price/Size}
Special Circumstances: EST Estimated (not enough info available to get exact percentage), NBY Not Built Yet
-
n.b. Type of decline, methodology, etc., are only noted when info is available in source material.

 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 14:34:20

What’s this? Something else is tanking today?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-30/dnc-unraveling-ceo-quits-after-8-months-amid-bailing-megadonors-and-cash-panic

Ha-ha, there goes the DNC. Ain’t nobody gonna be giving money to THAT organization anymore. Not after what Hillary did to it. The money go POOF! They don’t call her Killary for nuthin’.

I said a long time ago, during the latter part of Willy Jeff’s presidency, you don’t want to go near the Clintons, because everything they touch turns to shiite. To be their enemy is dangerous, to be their friend is fatal. Your life will be ruined if you get involved with them.

Get a load of that Tom Perez. Perfect face for gravedigging. He’ll be looking frantically for another CEO, seeing as how the guy couldn’t raise a fart after a dinner of refried beans. He’s used being given the money just for being a loaf. Now he’s finding out people actually have to GIVE it for him to GET it.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 14:51:26

Say, Tom, how’d all that race-baiting work out for ya? Mm-mm-mm-mm-MMM! That’s what the DNC stands for now: murdering white boys and coddling illegals. Now THERE’S a platform. You go, guy!

 
Comment by rms
2018-01-30 23:41:57

HEADLINE: “Hillary Clinton Didn’t Fire An Advisor Accused of Harassment. She Now Says She Would”

LOL.

 
 
Comment by azdude
2018-01-30 15:03:12

i panicked and sold today.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 15:16:05

Boxers or tighty whiteys?

 
Comment by Puggs
2018-01-30 15:42:15

When the market is this high it’s not a panic sell. It’s a casual lower caps sell.

Buy low, sell high.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 19:06:50

I panicked and sold last weekend. Maybe the Schtrumper Shutdown spooked me.

Tempted to buy this dip? You might not be after reading this dire prediction
By Shawn Langlois
Published: Jan 30, 2018 5:12 p.m. ET

Hussman: Future generations will look back on this moment and say, ‘… and this is where they completely lost their minds’

Market dips have consistently delivered the goods to savvy traders over the course of this stubbornly bullish run. Just about every selloff since this rally began has been met with opportunistic — and usually successful — stabs at turning quick profits.

But that won’t last forever, according to Hussman Investment Trust President and longtime bear John Hussman, who has been a steady voice in calling for an explosive conclusion to this bull market.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-01-30 15:50:32

Oakton, VA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As DC Area Vacancies Balloon

https://www.zillow.com/oakton-va/home-values/

https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg

 
Comment by azdude
2018-01-30 15:57:01

who is raining on trumpsters state of the union party tonight?

Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 17:51:34

“who is raining on trumpsters state of the union party tonight?”

Could be your Post-Election ‘calm-down’ room causing this.

Padded ‘calm-down’ room at charter school drives kids to anxiety attacks

“He was crying hysterically,” said Teneka Hall, 28, a full-time Washington Heights mom whose son, Xavier, was rushed to the hospital after he panicked and wet himself while he was holed up in the padded room. “It’s no way to treat a child.”

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/education/padded-calm-down-room-causing-anxiety-kids-article-1.1543983

Comment by azdude
2018-01-30 18:46:52

u are effectively insolvent as your earnings can’t even cover your interest expenses!

 
Comment by rms
2018-01-30 22:52:50

“…a full-time Washington Heights mom…”

aka another welfare case.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 19:15:12

No worries on the 3% long bond yield by Friday scenario. The Fed would intervene like crazy to prevent that.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 19:22:25

The Wall Street Journal
MoneyBeat
U.S. Treasury Selloff Puts 3% Yield Back in Focus
By Chelsey Dulaney
Jan 29, 2018 12:47 pm ET

The benchmark U.S. Treasury yield is closing in on 3%, the latest sign that an era of ultralow interest rates may be drawing to a close. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.714% on Monday, according to Tradeweb, from 2.661% Friday. Bond yields rise as prices fall. The sharp rise in yields in recent weeks has […]
To Read the Full Story
Subscribe

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 19:25:42

Markets
U.S. & Canada
Need to Know
Here’s the line in the sand for bonds — and stocks — that ‘everyone’s talking about’
By Victor Reklaitis
Published: Jan 30, 2018 7:40 a.m. ET
Critical information for the U.S. trading day
Getty Images
This could leave stocks beached.

What’s in a number?

Perhaps quite a bit — even if it’s just because other folks are so hung up on it.

The big number this week could be the 3% level for the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.24% , with strategists buzzing about whether a rise to that spot will upset stocks.

There’s also clamor today about new partisan battles over Russia and the upcoming State of the Union speech, but many finance geeks sound most interested in the bond market’s latest shakes.

“No one knows what the number is on 10s when this really starts to unravel. But if you’re the type who puts any stock in psychological levels, 3% has a not-so-nice ring to it,” says the blogger behind the Heisenberg Report for our call of the day.

While rising yields signal a robust economy, the speed of the move up is key, the blogger warns: “Too far, too fast is not good, and past a certain point, equities’ interpretation of that yield rise will change.”

It’s not you, it’s not me — it’s them, according to the Heisey scribe: “This is another one of those ‘everyone’s talking about it’ things, so make sure you’re at least in the loop.”

Other takes include one from Credit Suisse’s soothsayers, who suggest not fretting about the U.S. stock-market rally until the yield on 10s reaches 3.5%. (It was around 2.69% at last check after topping 2.70% for a three-year high yesterday.)

Meanwhile, Peter Tchir from Academy Securities cautions: “If we are at 3% by the end of this week, I don’t see stocks surviving that very well.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 20:41:26

‘Significant scope’ to rise further

In a research note Monday, U.S. economists at Deutsche Bank agreed that Treasury yields had “significant scope” to rise further before they would properly roil equity markets or weigh on the U.S. economy.

Deutsche Bank stated that the neutral 10-year yield or “10y-star” is where a bond yield switches from being supportive to being destructive. The analysts’ present estimate sits at 3.5 percent, some 80 basis points higher than current levels.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 20:51:46

BTFD and HODL!

THE FINANCIAL TIMES
Global equities under pressure for second day
Government bond yields at multiyear highs, oil prices keep falling
Dave Shellock
6 hours ago
Tuesday 21.00 GMT
What you need to know
- S&P 500 has worst day since August
- Healthcare stocks lead Wall Street lower
- 10-year Treasury yield at highest since April 2014
- Dollar inches lower as Monday’s rally runs out of steam
- Markets await State of the Union address

Global stocks fell sharply for a second day as concerns about high valuations and a sell-off across government bond markets helped rein in the bullish mood seen since the start of the year.

The declines came as the markets were bracing themselves for US President Donald Trump’s maiden “State of the Union” address later in the day, and the conclusion of a two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday.

US healthcare stocks were notable casualties following their strong recent showing, as participants digested news that Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Chase were setting up a company aimed at cutting healthcare costs for their US employees.

Meanwhile, the dollar was slightly weaker across the board following Monday’s halfhearted rally, while oil prices continued to retreat from three-year highs reached last week.

Hot topic

As US trading drew to a close, the FTSE All-World equity index was down 1 per cent and heading for its biggest two-day decline in about six months.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 1.1 per cent to 2,822 — its biggest one-day drop since August 17 — taking its decline from Friday’s record closing high to 1.8 per cent, with healthcare stocks down 1.9 per cent.

 
 
Comment by Obama Goons
2018-01-30 19:22:37

God bless President Donald J. Trump. God bless America.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 19:38:58

Amen, brothah!

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-30 19:49:46

Best. Timeline. Ever.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-30 20:37:32

Congratulations President Trump. An unprecedented state of the nation delivery. God bless President Trump indeed.

 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 19:27:28

Let the joyous news be spread the individual mandate now is dead!

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-30 19:35:27

:mrgreen:

The place lit up when he said that(and so did everyone around me)…… and then the camera panned to sad panda dumbocrats. :mrgreen:

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 19:40:51

Aren’t they the worst? Truly sick bunch of people.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 20:08:24

Not to mention hateful, mean spirited.

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Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 19:43:17

Nancy Pelosi looks like her face is melting.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 19:57:32

I didn’t see a shot of Pelosi when DJT said Americans are Dreamers too.

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Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 20:03:37

Deport the commiecrats to North Korea.

 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 21:11:13

Nancy Pelosi, LOLZ, talking about how the people of the US don’t know how to redact a memo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVIo8DKeSrE

I’ll never forget when she jumped up on the floor of Congress to clap for the Mexican president and shove it right in the face of Americans.

 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 23:29:02

That is one scared babbling Liar.

 
 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 20:03:25

She’d be a good stand-in for the crypt keeper.

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Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-30 19:55:49

Americans are dreamers too?

(You’re not allowed to say that, see also Kate Steinle)

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-30 20:17:31

Kate Steinle posters denounced as ‘racist propaganda’ at UCSD:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/kate-steinle-posters-denounced-as-racist-propaganda-at-ucsd/article/2644044

Students file complaint, tear down ‘racist’ pictures of Kate Steinle:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/dec/20/uc-san-diego-students-file-complaint-tear-down-rac/

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-30 20:02:58

Protects the nuclear family by ending chain migration?

No bueno, primo :(

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 20:05:16

Where is the talk of hammering the employers who are hiring these people? I have heard nothing on that front, yet if you get rid of the demand side then the supply side will markedly shrink. I’m tired of not talking about the entire problem.

Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 20:16:35

Can’t say I disagree.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 20:30:21

It’s because Republicans are in bed with big business, and big business loves cheap labor. That’s why we need a new party, a party of the American people. F**k all the special interests.

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Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 20:33:20

The people built this country?

Now I’m confused.

Obama said we didn’t build that.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-30 20:36:23

You didn’t build it.

Now stay tuned for the official response of some Northeastern twit who will give you appropriate guidance on how CNN will tell you what to think.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-30 20:47:42

“This is not who we are” — King Obama, too many times to cite

 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 20:52:46

“Now stay tuned for the official response of some Northeastern twit who will give you appropriate guidance on how CNN will tell you what to think.”

I know, his father’s cousin killed a girl I went to school with and his uncle killed a girl probably not too far from where he is speaking tonight and lied about it.

 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-30 20:35:58

And now, a few words from a smacked-ass Kennedy. Too bad he doesn’t realize that Trump just might accomplish what JFK couldn’t, breaking the shadow gummint into a thousand pieces and scattering it to the wind.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 20:48:40

Evidently he lives in a really bad part of a really bad town where bullets are flying and hatred is marching in the streets.

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-30 20:49:43

Congressman Kennedy should lower his soy intake, it’s not healthy :(

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-01-30 20:56:38

“in defense of our future”

LOLZ

 
 
Comment by oxide
2018-01-31 07:23:28

I thought Kennedy did OK, given that bar for SOTU responses is pretty low. It’s considered a resounding success if you don’t destroy your career.

But I didn’t like his “freebies for everybody” mentality and the Spanish really turned me off.

Comment by rms
2018-01-31 07:59:05

“But I didn’t like his “freebies for everybody” mentality…”

The democrats need some fresh ideas.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-31 09:21:57

El Partido Democrata: apoyando a indocumentados, immigrantes, contrabandistas, pandilleros y la raza en general desde 1960

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-01-30 20:55:57

Serious question:

Can anyone recall a past episode when Treasury yields spiked upwards at the same time the headline Wall Street stock market indexes tanked?

It almost seems like the Great Unraveling is underway.

 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 21:27:09

It looks like for the first time in a long time I am going to have to buy a pickup truck or two.

After looking around a little bit I think I’d rather be back at looking to buy a house.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 22:09:22

Prices a bit high for your tastes? Join the club.

Comment by jeff
2018-01-30 23:39:07

“Prices a bit high for your tastes?”

Damn straight.

I see they have these dopes financing for 84 months now.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-01-30 23:46:52

Yeah, it’s pretty pathetic. I’m sure if you’re browsing Craigslist you’ll see a ton of barely used, horrifically overpriced trucks for sale with reasons like “looking to downsize” and such, which really means “I cannot afford these payments, they’re killing me.”

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Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-31 09:17:51
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-01-31 08:51:22

Some F-150’s at the local dealership:

https://www.loveford.com/newford.html?Model=F-150&st=Price+desc

You can get a 6 cylinder, no frills single cab for $26K

A loaded F-150 limited: 62K

Comment by jeff
2018-01-31 12:58:51

The closest I have come to pulling the trigger was a 2016 GMC with 22k miles on it, a long bed (which I need) with a power and towing package for $22k.

It was at a dealer and had the balance of the factory warranty.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2018-01-31 13:28:14

Sounds like a great deal for a 2016. At least compared to the 6.2L(?) AWD Yukons and such that I look at on occasion.

 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-31 14:21:29

It was a good deal for someone.

I found it on a Friday and went there on Monday and it was sold.

 
 
Comment by rms
2018-01-31 19:30:35

“Some F-150’s at the local dealership…”

An F150 is basically a station wagon that looks like a pickup truck, and used with 40,000-miles has an asking price of $41,700.00? The Kool-Aid in the auto industry should be served in shot glass.

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Comment by rms
2018-01-30 23:45:49

Double down… buy a house and a truck. ‘Merica!

 
 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-01-31 05:58:35

4.41 30yr
When it hits five and j6p gets the next propriety tax bill
Ben Dover

 
Comment by CryptoNick
2018-01-31 08:19:11

Did you BTFD and HODL?

Bitcoin is heading for its biggest monthly decline since January 2015
- The bitcoin price could be headed for its worst monthly decline since January 2015.
- Increased scrutiny from regulators and criticism from major businesses and leaders has weighed on the price.
- Bitcoin has fallen in four out of five of the Januarys in the period between 2013 and 2017.
Arjun Kharpal | @ArjunKharpal
Published 1 Hour Ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/31/bitcoin-is-heading-for-its-biggest-monthly-decline-since-january-2015.html

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-01-31 08:58:57

“HODL”: I just had to look that up.

From Wikipedia …

“HODL is a slang term and Internet meme that is used in the Bitcoin community when referring to keeping, i.e. holding onto the cryptocurrency rather than selling it.[1][2][3] It originated in a December 2013 post on the Bitcoin Forum message board by an apparently inebriated user who posted with a typo in the subject, “I AM HODLING.”[4][5][6] In 2017, Quartz listed it as one of the essential slang terms in Bitcoin culture, and described it as a stance, “to stay invested in bitcoin and not to capitulate in the face of plunging prices.”[7] The Street.com referred to it as the “favorite mantra” of Bitcoin holders.[8] According to the Financial Times, it was the reddit forum Buttcoin that helped popularize its use.[9]

Afterwards, people have also referred to it as a backronym meaning, “Hold On for Dear Life.”[10][11]“

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2018-01-31 08:37:04

NAR warns upper end prices set to slide!

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-31/nar-warns-upper-end-prices-set-slide

Wut? SET to slide? They’ve already been sliding like a California hillside house in the mud. By my reckoning, they’ve been sliding for a year or more, at least in places like Greenwich, CT and frankly, also here in Florida. Just spoke to a guy the other day who told me he’s selling by owner and can’t afford a RE agent because he’s just trying to get out from under his mortgage. The money he put down on the house has already gone POOF!

Comment by jeff
2018-01-31 09:02:02

“he’s just trying to get out from under his mortgage. The money he put down on the house has already gone POOF!”

If you don’t mind me asking, did he happen to say when he bought?

From what happened over here it would sound like a 2002 - 2007 purchase. Unless of course he put down 2% and then it could have been last month.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-01-31 09:03:09

Oh my……. The poor donks. The poor poor donks.

 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-01-31 08:47:44

Americans are dreamers too

LOL

Greatest line Hijacking of all time.

So how does Politico combat this?

Quite predictably.

Trump’s ‘dreamers’ line in State of the Union draws praise from David Duke

‘Americans are dreamers too,’ the president said.

By REBECCA MORIN

01/30/2018 11:46 PM EST

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/30/trump-david-duke-dreamers-379364

 
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