There Has Been A Herd Mentality
A report from Bloomberg on New York. “Equity Residential has a New York story, and it doesn’t have a happy ending — at least, not yet. The metro area, where developers are churning out thousands of new rentals, and tenants have the luxury to bargain, was the only one that showed a decline in rent for the publicly traded landlord in 2017. ‘New York was our worst-performing market,’ David Neithercut, the firm’s CEO said on a conference call, ‘We still expect New York to be our worst-performing market.’”
From the Charlotte Observer in North Carolina. “At an economic forecast meeting, apartment developers reeled off some gloomy observations: Land prices and construction costs are shooting up, lenders are skittish, inventory is approaching record highs and rent growth is slowing down. The apartment boom in Charlotte, like much of the country, has been concentrated in expensive areas. But there’s an expectation that rent growth will soon slow, especially as developers finish thousands of new high-end apartments over the next few years.”
“One issue: The concentration of building for renters who can pay top dollar. Michael Cohen, director of advisory services at CoStar, said developers have been focused on the roughly one-third of the market with household incomes of $75,000 or more. About 80 percent of all new apartments under construction in the U.S. would require that income level, putting them out of reach for many renters. ‘There has been a herd mentality,’ said Cohen. ‘It’s all urban sub-markets… More than half the units underway right now are in the most expensive sub-markets.’”
From Curbed Seattle in Washington. “Seattle has been the construction crane capital of the world for a few years running now, and it shows. 2017 was a boom year for residential construction, with 12,008 new units sprouting up in the Seattle area, according to Realpage. That’s around 50 percent more than 2016, which saw 7,935 new units hit the market. And residential construction shows no signs of slowing down, with 11,999 units currently in the pipeline for 2018.”
“Numbers compiled by Seattle in Progress show around 8,000 new units completed in the past year—around 7,500 if you only count multifamily development—in the Seattle city limits alone. More than 30,000 additional units have permits approved, and another 30,000 have applied.”
“This record-breaking year for Seattle construction—2017 exceeded beginning-of-year estimates by around 2,000 units—ended with the region’s highest vacancy rate since 2010, meaning Seattle’s supply crunch could be starting to alleviate. It also shows some early signs of having some effect on rent, with a larger quarterly decrease in cost than usual.”
From The Day in Connecticut. “The city’s business district has long been stymied by a lack of disposable income, but Mayor Michael Passero expressed optimism that market forces are driving a major change. Passero focused much of his time on his optimism linked with to the rapid pace that developers are scooping up downtown properties. ‘If you break it down into sections, the downtown area is just a pocket of poverty,’ Passero said. ‘People who live downtown aren’t going to the symphony necessarily. Developers are telling us this. The dream would be four, five hundred people with money in their pocket living downtown.’”
“An onslaught of residential development proposals in the downtown area — at least 300 apartment units are on the table at the moment — should prove to be the turnaround New London needs to help fill empty storefronts, Passero said. Passero downplayed the recent donation by the Tagliatela family of 21 of its unsold luxury condos at Harbour Towers to the University of New Haven simply as a downturn in the condo market.”
From the Denver Channel in Colorado. “Schools in Denver are feeling the effects of the affordable housing crisis. Enrollment numbers are dropping as families move out of neighborhoods that were once considered accessible. Brian Eschbacher, the executive director of planning and enrollment for Denver Public Schools, says the decline is recent phenomena.”
“‘Over the last 10 years, we’ve been the fastest growing urban district in the country. We’ve added over 20,000 students and sometimes adding 3,000 students in a year. In the last year, suddenly that growth has stopped, and we are projected to lose students this year for the first time since 2004,’ said Eschbacher.”
From the Hollywood Reporter. “As Chinese tycoon Wang Jianlin’s firesale of overseas assets continues, the conglomerate is also looking to sell a $900 million skyscraper in Chicago. Jianlin’s Dalian Wanda Group is ready to sell its remaining two overseas real estate projects, including a much-hyped $1.2 billion luxury condo and hotel complex in Beverly Hills. A little over a year ago, when Wang was boasting of plans to pour billions more into the U.S. entertainment industry, the One Beverly Hills development, as it is called, was being touted as the Chinese conglomerate’s future Hollywood headquarters.”
“Those plans were soon dashed, however, as Chinese regulators upped their scrutiny of Wanda’s heavy debt load and potentially risky bets overseas, transforming the company from aggressive acquirer into desperate seller seemingly overnight.”
“If the deals come together, they will mark the conclusion of a series of asset disposals as frenetic as the acquisition streak that made the Chinese firm a name to know a few years ago. Earlier this month Wanda announced a deal to sell two Australian real estate projects for $913 million. That agreement came just days after the sale of a high-profile London development for around $81 million. The sales are expected to lessen Wanda’s financial strain and help it address upcoming loan repayment deadlines.”
“Last year international credit-rating firms downgraded Wanda’s flagship commercial-property subsidiary to junk status, triggering higher interest payments on its offshore debt. In a company address earlier this month, Wang pledged that Wanda wouldn’t experience any defaults and promised to reduce the company’s debt burden ‘through all available means,’ including the sale of more non-core assets. Wanda Commercial Properties owed more than $2 billion in offshore debt in 2016, according to its most recent regulatory filing.”
‘Investors spent less money on apartments in 2017 than the previous year, according to CoStar research, but bought more multifamily properties. That combination resulted in a mixed outcome in 2017 - more property trades, but less total investment in the multifamily market.’
“No doubt this is the case,” says Josh Goldfarb, co-head of Cushman & Wakefield’s multifamily sales platform. “We are seeing more interest in the suburbs and secondary markets caused by overheated costs and land pricing in large metropolitan areas, combined with minor oversupply.”
‘In New York City, for instance, apartment sales plunged from $14.2 billion in 2016 to $9.1 billion last year. That $5 billion drop in this market alone accounted for almost half the national sales total drop-off from 2016. San Francisco saw sales of apartments fall from $2.5 billion in 2016, to $1.6 billion last year.’
‘In New York City, for instance, apartment sales plunged from $14.2 billion in 2016 to $9.1 billion last year. That $5 billion drop in this market alone accounted for almost half the national sales total drop-off from 2016. San Francisco saw sales of apartments fall from $2.5 billion in 2016, to $1.6 billion last year.’
Lux apartment sales are heading the same direction as Buttcoin.
We are seeing more interest in the suburbs and secondary markets
Translation: “We are so over downtown luxury. Time to snap up, value-add, and luxe-up the perfectly fine Grade B in the first ring of suburbs. Ditto for student luxury and small-town apt.”
This is going to affect a LOT of the working class. They will have nowhere to live.
That’s correct. And there will be political consequences to that. We’ve already seen them.
Maybe this time is different, but trees don’t normally grow to the sky.
‘developers have been focused on the roughly one-third of the market with household incomes of $75,000 or more. About 80 percent of all new apartments under construction in the U.S. would require that income level, putting them out of reach for many renters’
Which means they’re fooked, right Mike? That’s what you pay Costar to do. Happy talk - then ‘Oh you’re fooked!’
‘Earlier this month Wanda announced a deal to sell two Australian real estate projects for $913 million. That agreement came just days after the sale of a high-profile London development for around $81 million’
I read another article that said they took a 25% haircut to get these deals done.
‘from aggressive acquirer into desperate seller seemingly overnight’
And California airboxes, no less. Oh dear…
just out of bankruptcy stockton ca will be sending out 500.00 checks to 300,000.00 residents randomly as a test run for a minimum income.
https://www.npr.org/2018/01/29/581674763/in-california-stockton-experiments-with-guaranteed-basic-income
SHAPIRO: So this is not going to cost taxpayers anything? It’s being paid for by a grant.
TUBBS: It doesn’t cost tax payers anything. It’s paid from $1.2 million in philanthropic funding. So the idea is that in the next couple of years, we’ll have some data that will tell us whether this is a solution that is viable or not.
A steak dinner bet that the data will show alcohol and cigarette sales seem to spike a few days after the $500 checks go out…
The data doesn’t bear this out:
What Happens When You Just Give Money To Poor People:
To see whether this was actually happening, researchers did an experiment. They surveyed people in Kenya who received money from GiveDirectly, and a similar group of people who didn’t get money.
The results from the study are encouraging, says Johannes Haushofer, an economist at MIT’s Poverty Action Lab who was one of the study’s co-authors.
“We don’t see people spending money on alcohol and tobacco,” he says. “Instead we see them investing in their kids’ education, we see them investing in health care. They buy more and better food.”
People used the money to buy cows and start businesses. Their kids went hungry less often.
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/10/25/240590433/what-happens-when-you-just-give-money-to-poor-people
It takes capital to be a capitalist society.
Don’t forget the medical marijuana sales, plus a spike in the doctors’ diagnoses that require this prescription.
‘People used the money to buy cows and start businesses. Their kids went hungry less often.’
Cows? Less often?
All anyone has to do is go up to Alaska and see what the Indians do with their free oil money. Sure, a few save and invest. But do step over the majority when they are passed out in downtown Anchorage.
All Alaska residents get a share of the oil wealth, not just the native Americans. The state government cuts each Alaskan resident a check every year. Sure, some of them squander it, but most don’t.
Addiction is complex and has many roots. But poverty doesn’t generally help addiction.
My hunch is that impoverished Kenyans who have long survived by the sweat of their brow may respond differently to a cash infusion than poor Americans accustomed to life on the dole. The assumption that poor Americans will respond exactly like poor Kenyans did may prove flawed.
The check everyone gets is pretty small. The tribes share a much larger pool. It depends on which tribe they are in and their familial background. When I was there some were getting 70k-150k per year.
Buy a cow???
You really think you are going to see that in Stockton?
Are you so blind that NOT to see that the 2013 NPR “study” was conducted NOT IN THE UNITED STATES?
In countries without the “need to buy the votes” progressive social program?
In countries that still have FAMILIES (mother and father) raising their children.
In Stockton - cigarette, alcohol and weed purchases are going to spike right after these folks get their free $500
“But poverty doesn’t generally help addiction.”
Nor does free money.
It does help Democrats get elected and stay in power, though.
You really think you are going to see that in Stockton?
Are you so blind that NOT to see that the 2013 NPR “study” was conducted NOT IN THE UNITED STATES?
Of course I saw that it was done in Kenya. I listened to the original study several years ago and was intrigued by it. The point is that it was a random controlled trial, so it’s the best form of evidence that we have because variables are isolated except for the independent variable which is those who got the free cash.
As professor rightly points out, who knows whether the results will extrapolate to other cultures or societies. But isn’t the point of good policy to find out? I suspect that is why the experiment is being tried in Stockton. It’s fine to have doubts, but that is the point of doing the experiment. I have nothing wrong with private money testing out a hypothesis.
They’re gonna need a lot more than $1.2 million to get the coverage they’d like. Where will that money come from?
That said, I could see California being the first state with a BGI, courtesy of the taxpayers, of course. They’ll end up having a European sized sales tax (20% or more) to fund it. And the Free SH!t Army will make a beeline to the formerly Golden State, making it even more impoverished.
“But poverty doesn’t generally help addiction.”
Nor does free money.
Wired did a story where Native Americans received free money from Casino revenues that disputes what you are claiming:
By the time the youngest cohort of children was at least 21, she found something else: The younger the Cherokee children were when the casino opened, the better they fared compared to the older Cherokee children and to rural whites. This was true for emotional and behavioral problems as well as drug and alcohol addiction.
https://www.wired.com/story/free-money-the-surprising-effects-of-a-basic-income-supplied-by-government/
The only way to duplicate the Kenyan experiment in the US is to give the poor $500 (or $5000), and then take away every other form of assistance. No school, no food bank, no EBT.
Work-or-starve will probably motivate the poor…to stand in the medians, or to begin a lucrative career in drug dealing or carjacking. A few might pull themselves up, but not enough to justify a UBI.
“They’re gonna need a lot more than $1.2 million to get the coverage they’d like. Where will that money come from?”
From what I read, it is only going to be 100 families randomly selected who will get $500 per month for 3 years.
Also, the article in Wired that I linked to above describes Hughes motive for doing this:’
HUGHES GREW UP about a three-hour drive from Cherokee, in Hickory, North Carolina, where his mother worked as a public school teacher and his father was a traveling paper salesman. But that’s not what attracted Hughes to Costello’s work. He was interested in basic income primarily because at just 33 years old, Facebook has made him filthy rich—he’s worth roughly $430 million—and he’s still grappling with how, exactly, that happened 1.
“I’m proud of the work we did at Facebook, but I’ve also been very clear that the financial rewards I got were disproportionate to the work we put in,” Hughes says. He’s sitting cross-legged in a leather chair inside NeueHouse, a Manhattan warehouse that’s been converted into a swanky coworking space (top-tier membership costs $3,500 a month). “In human history, you have not had self-made wealth among twentysomethings on the order of magnitude we have today,” Hughes continues. “What’s making that possible? Because whatever it is, is happening at the same time median household wages have barely budged.”
It’s true. Since 1980, average income for the top .01 percent of Americans has more than tripled. For the bottom 90 percent, it’s basically flat-lined.
“They’re gonna need a lot more than $1.2 million to get the coverage they’d like. Where will that money come from?”
“From what I read, it is only going to be 100 families randomly selected who will get $500 per month for 3 years.”
I did some math and my math says 100 families X $500 per month X 36 months = $18 million.
I think of the cash infusion from UBI as very similar to what happened when women entered the professional workforce. It was, for the most part, a windfall infusion for a society in which prices were calibrated to a one-income household.
We’re barely 30 years later, and prices have re-calibrated to two incomes. The rise of the personal credit card during the same time just made prices soar higher. Now, households can’t sustain a middle class lifestyle without two incomes. UBI won’t be much different.
So a couple of Harvard guys start a non-profit named GiveDirectly to disperse (by cash-transfers) donated money from Google, and the like, around East Africa. A couple of years later these same guys start up a for-profit company named Segovia Technology (aimed at improving the efficiency of cash transfer distributions in the developing world) that is in the money transfer business.
Viola, a cash cow!
Check out GiveDirectly 2016 tax records and you’ll see that over $600k came from Government grants (you and me) and that their number one outside contractor for the year was Segovia Technology ($300K). Wages, benefits and compensation totaled about $2.5 mil for GiveDirectly employees and board members for the year.
Speaking of cows (in Kenya):
http://venturesafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Kenya-drought.jpeg
The Stockton Mayor and Council giving “free money” to individuals living in the US for doing nothing of worth shows just how valueless those pieces of paper we pass around truly are.
Our currencies hasn’t been made of or supported by precious metals or anything else of value for decades. Paper currency isn’t even backed by a unit of physical labor at this stage of disorder and showing people that they can get some for simply breathing just further demonstrates the point.
“We’re barely 30 years later, and prices have re-calibrated to two incomes. The rise of the personal credit card during the same time just made prices soar higher. Now, households can’t sustain a middle class lifestyle without two incomes. UBI won’t be much different.”
But it’s not because of too much money chasing too few goods, it’s from the PTB rigging the system to extract every last penny from households through crushing debt.
Bankster math ain’t what it used to be. It’s a good thing they don’t enforce GAAP anymore or Mr. Banker would be in some serious trouble.
“I did some math and my math says 100 families X $500 per month X 36 months = $18 million.”
A decimal point between the 1 and the 8 would be appropriate here. I’m sure it was just a minor oversight.
What I meant to say is that it was the extension of credit, not wages, which pushed prices higher. Look at automobiles, for instance.
You are correct, it is $1.8 million.
I suppose I should not try to treat readers of this blog in the same way I treat my customers. Next time I will be a wee bit slicker.
So a couple of Harvard guys start a non-profit named GiveDirectly to disperse (by cash-transfers) donated money from Google, and the like, around East Africa. A couple of years later these same guys start up a for-profit company named Segovia Technology (aimed at improving the efficiency of cash transfer distributions in the developing world) that is in the money transfer business.
Viola, a cash cow!
Wow. Thanks for that story.
I’ve never been a fan of non-profits. There’s usually some scammy angle (and lots of above-market salaries and benefits for their employees.)
If the governments behind handing out free money people will find a way to game it.
It’s true that there are lots of scam-like non-profits. There are some organizations that are dedicated to finding non-profits that actually are effective (see the Effective Altruism movement) and GiveWell.org for some examples.
What I meant to say is that it was the extension of credit, not wages, which pushed prices higher.
I don’t agree. Yes, some of it was credit, but it was women’s income that pushed up prices, especially for housing in good school districts. Elizabeth Warren wrote a pretty good book on it. And this happened in the late 1980s early 1990s, when interest rates were still 6-7%, 20% down etc. When I was in high school, the double income no kids (DINKs) got rich, fast. Now, DINKs are just average.
Hey Donk
The Two Income Trap, a good read indeed.
My wife was a stay at home mom. Wealthy moms hire in-home nannies. Many of the women in Ferguson, Missouri (sh!thole) are stay at home moms. Only the faux rich Mc Mansion moms go to work and pay for daycare.
Housing my friends…… Housing.
Honolulu, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/honolulu-hi/market-trends/
not surprising with all the recent missile attacks…
‘Senior Housing Is Not Overbuilt. It Just Really Looks Like It’
‘According to some senior housing experts, low barriers to entry and the threat of overbuilding scare a lot of national and international capital away from new-builds in Texas. However, some of the same experts say there is still a lot of room to grow in less obvious places.’
“It’s easy to make that assumption [the industry is overbuilt] based on a lot of what we’re reading,” Prevarian Senior Living Managing Principal Allan Brown said. “Clearly there are some markets, suburban Dallas, where there are some serious warning signs despite the growth and everything else it’s concerning. To assume that the industry is overbuilt is [false].”
‘The trend in senior housing is still for-profit luxury product. NorthMarq Capital Vice President of Capital Markets Ruth Davis said she sees a continuation of the trend of developers looking to finance for-profit senior housing product. In terms of the type of for-profit product, Capitol Seniors Housing founder Scott Stewart said it is all about active adult housing.’
“We see a real volume demographic and strong demand where folks who traditionally just want to stay at home, they now want to move out; they want to be with like-minded folks … and they’re looking for a third act. They’re not ready to mail it in. They’re not ready to retire,” Stewart said.’
“No one wants to be cooped up by themselves, so you’re seeing more younger people, maybe more locations near universities and near other amenities. The seniors want to get out there and have fun. They’re active. That’s a consideration for site selection just even repurposing malls and things like that,” Davis said.’
Somebody wrote about this here about ten years ago, noting that even the most active, vigorous 50-somethings turn into octogenarians who need assisted living in a downsized setting whether they’re ready to “mail it in” or not.
There’s a fourth act, in other words, and the housing appropriate for that act is not the same as what’s being built now.
‘Somebody wrote about this here about ten years ago, noting that even the most active, vigorous 50-somethings turn into octogenarians who need assisted living in a downsized setting whether they’re ready to “mail it in” or not.’
That’s my parents lives in a nutshell, although they are still able to make so-called Independent Living work for them. There were extenuating circumstances, including the problems of residing four miles east of Ferguson in the BLM era, and physical disability.
Glad you brought this up, snake. I’m learning more about 55+ housing than I ever cared to know, living in this corridor that runs north of the Villages up to Gainesville. The final act after “assisted living” is the nursing home, or Hospice care. There’s one “community” up here vying to be a more sedate version of the Villages. The “out parcels” that surround it are being built up with assisted living and nursing home facilities like crazy. They call it “continuity of care”.
Weird thing about those facilities, though. They have rather large parking lots with not many cars in them, and all these propped-up palm trees sitting in the grassy medians between sections of the parking lots. Kind of a puzzler, since it would appear the people who designed and built these facilities were expecting a large crowd. Who were they expecting? Hordes of loving family members visiting their dying relatives? Because it’s not like the “residents” are going to be needing a car for much of anything.
And don’t get me started on all the “luxury” 55+ communities with all kinds of amenities. How many people want to pay for all that? They’re on the hook for rising HOA or condo fees that equal or exceed a mortgage payment. I saw where one guy wrote in one of the forums that all he wants is a decent little home with a community pool and small clubhouse, doesn’t want to pay for golf courses and ballrooms and restaurants and tennis courts and exercise classes and activity directors and craft rooms and billiards and on and on and on. Doesn’t want to pay for it, because what matters to him is a place for him and his dogs (pets are important to a lot of seniors, believe it or not, and a lot of “communities” either don’t allow them or have restrictions on what kind of pets and what size, etc.) and a place to take walks and maybe some security like a gate at the entrance to the community.
Are the builders and developers listening? NO! They’re more concerned about “where are we going to put the bocce ball court?” Or the baseball diamond or the spa.
And then you see these 55+ houses and condos going into foreclosure, because the owners can’t afford the community fees.
Down here in Southern Utah it’s Pickleball courts that all the seniors want to play. Tennis courts are being retrofitted and turned into Pickleball courts:
https://www.nbcnews.com/video/pickleball-the-fastest-growing-sport-in-america-199360067605
I forgot that one, but spot-on. Pickleball is all the rage! Actually it makes way more sense than tennis courts.
Also indoor lap pools! There’s another foolish amenity. Like they’re expecting a bunch of aging Mark Spitz wanna-be’s. Not that an indoor pool isn’t a good idea, but for god’s sake make it a free swim walking pool, that’s much more appropriate for the older crowd. Being a nurse and all, you’re probably familiar with those. The 55+ community in the area where I used to live had one of those and it was a huge hit. It was jammed with seniors wading and floating around, while the lap pool next door sat empty.
Yup. My grandfather used to “swim” at his local YMCA with his similarly-aged friends, up until his 80s. They didn’t actually swim, but they did get into the pool, where they hung out and shot the bull.
Exactly, snake. That was the whole point of the walking pool in Sun City Center, it was a social thing. The folks would walk and wade and float around and socialize, getting a little exercise and using the heated water to relax the muscles and improve mobility. Much better than sitting like a lump in a spa or steam room.
The most frightening aspect of the assisted living facilities is the hired help - low wage, unskilled, oftentimes illegal immigrant labor. All of the profits, just like all industries these days, go straight to the owners/CEOs/shareholders, etc. As a result, the standard of care is shockingly bad, oftentimes dangerous, for the extremely high cost of care.
When the guy cleaning granny’s diaper is moonlighting as MS13, suffice it to say the result is oftentimes not pretty.
It’s hard work for that low wage, too. Many of the elderly residents are suffering from Alzheimer’s Disease or dementia and can be challenging.
Palmetto
Like a casino, senior communities with assisted living facilities try to put EVERYTHING under one roof. You move there when one of you can still drive and you want to do your own cooking. Then when neither of you can drive you take your meals on “campus.” Finally one of you shows signs of dementia and they move that person into a setting where assisted care can be given. It also allows the spouse to “visit.”
There is a parking lot for the kids that never visit because they’re too busy.
Huge, empty parking lots, al. YUUUGE! With the staff vehicles all huddled into one corner.
Anyway, this model is broken. Maybe it worked for a little while, but the majority of seniors can’t afford it. Those places are going to end up like shopping malls. Vacant.
As a result, the standard of care is shockingly bad, oftentimes dangerous, for the extremely high cost of care.
I can attest to that from the experiences a relative of mine had in what was supposed to be the best nursing home in her area. It was horrifyingly bad.
the majority of seniors can’t afford it
There was probably a business model assumption that somehow the government would pay for it?
Palmetto, you are spot on with the walking pool. I happen to be a fan of swim walking. I’ve been meaning to invest in a water belt so that I can swim run when my legs are getting hammered from running too many miles.
We have a really good county rec center here and they have two hours or so where the indoor water park type area is cordoned off and its just the retirement age individuals who are walking. They don’t allow them to walk in the lap swim Olympic-size pool area because there are too many swimmers.
The most frightening aspect of the assisted living facilities is the hired help - low wage, unskilled, oftentimes illegal immigrant labor. All of the profits, just like all industries these days, go straight to the owners/CEOs/shareholders, etc. As a result, the standard of care is shockingly bad, oftentimes dangerous, for the extremely high cost of care.
My background is white collar professional work. Analytics, operations, and IT. But when I transitioned into nursing as a second career, I was trying to get into a fast-track program for individuals who already had a bachelor degree. The program wanted some level of patient care experience, which I didn’t have. So I took a very part-time job as a CNA at an assisted living home. It was eye-opening. All of the staff was extremely dedicated, but paid a pittance. They were worked to the bone and the management squeezed every last drop of efficiency they could out of these aides. I have never worked so hard for so little. My experience is that the workers are generally caring and want to do the right thing, but the operations and management of cutting costs to the bone prevents adequate care. A lot of these centers are cash cows. Medicaid and Medicare pay for about 70% of all nursing home stays in the US, once personal funds are exhausted.
Here is a tip for anyone considering a nursing home. You need to figure out what the turnover rate is of the staff, specifically the aides. If you have a lot of aides who have been there for a while, then that is a pretty good sign that the operation is at least tolerable. On the other hand, if you have a churn and burn operation where no one has been there for longer than a few years, it might be a sign that the management is mistreating their staff. Poor staff treatment generally equates to poor resident treatment.
Today’s the day! Memo time!
Deep state is going to prison.
Traitors will hang
You know what’s weird? Collusion is not a defined crime. You’re supposed to have an actual specific crime to appoint a special counsel or prosecutor. And did you know that a grand jury has no rules of evidence? Hearsay is good to go. And there’s no judge, no defense lawyer.
I picked up Donna Brazile’s book from the library but haven’t started reading it yet. Reviews I read say she dedicated the book to Seth Rich, and wrote that after his death she was afraid for her life. The DNC “hack” has been proven by forensics to be a leak, not a hack.
There are a lot (alot) of unanswered questions about this…
Oh dear lord, the desperation:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-01/fisa-fireworks-pelosi-demands-removal-nunes-intel-committee
What hasn’t this woman been removed for terminal dementia?
Collusion is one of those words that crept into the narrative on little cat’s feet. No, it’s not a defined crime. But I believe “conspiracy” is in fact a crime when connected to the words “to commit” whatever it is that has been purported to have been committed.
Re post from JANUARY 31, 2018
MAXINE WATERS: Russia is out to get me!
FEBRUARY 1, 2018
BY KYLE OLSON
Maxine Waters now sees a Russian behind every mailbox and lamp post
169 Comments
The American Mirror
Nosmo King • an hour ago
Enigmas
(1) Isn’t it weird that in America, our flag and our culture offend so many people, but our benefits don’t?
(2) How can the federal government ask U.S. citizens to pay back student loans, when illegal aliens are receiving a free education?
(3) Only in America are legal citizens labeled “racists” and “Nazis,” but illegal aliens are called “Dreamers”.
(4) Liberals say, “If confiscating all guns saves just one life, it’s worth it”. Well then, if deporting all illegals saves just one life, wouldn’t that be worth it?
(5) I can’t quite figure out how you can proudly wave the flag of another country, but consider it punishment to be sent back there.
6) The Constitution: It doesn’t need to be rewritten, it needs to be reread.
(7) William F. Buckley said: “Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other points of view, and are then shocked and offended when they discover there are other points of view.”
(8) Joseph Sobran said: “‘Need’ now means wanting someone else’s money. ‘Greed’ means wanting to keep your own. ‘Compassion’ is when a politician arranges the transfer.”
The left is already crying that Nunes “altered” the memo before releasing it. That’s a meme that needs to be busted. Simply release the original version of the memo with Nunes’s red-line strikeout, so everyone decide for themselves whether his comments constitute altering. Easy peasy.
I just read that today is NOT the day. Today is the day the WH signs off on it and sends it back to Congress.
Y’know, really, the longer they draw this out (and that’s what they’re doing, on purpose) the less chance of it really getting released. Political theater is one thing, but timing is everything and it looks like the typical Republican “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” move.
Or maybe it’s not the political bombshell everyone says it is, and they are waiting for the Friday news dump.
Possibly, but the Adam and Nancy show would seem to indicate a lot of “there”, there. Nancy has reached the point of hysteria. And it couldn’t happen to a nicer creature. Between her and Schiff, I’ve never seen people sucking off the shadow government so frantically.
Anyway, abolish the FBI. This agency is not about investigating anything, or “protecting” the country in any way. It’s more about protecting the agency and feathering its own nest, it’s about creating crime where there isn’t any, through “stings” and frame-ups and false flags, which is exactly what they are trying to accomplish with the whole “Russia” investigation. It’s field agents murder people like LaVoy Finicum in cold blood. Recently one of its precious field agents shot and killed a hostage in Houston. The FBI is more dangerous to the country than North Korea, IMO. If it were to be abolished, crime in the US would probably drop 30%.
Can anyone tell me what are the “accomplishments” of the FBI? And don’t tell me Al Capone. Capone was done in by the IRS, after the FBI couldn’t do squat about him.
Seriously, what has the FBI accomplished in its sordid history?
Look at the FBI’s role in the Vegas massacre (which, for the deadliest in our history, receives no media coverage at all). Essentially they were standing guard over the local PD, like some sort of thug henchmen waiting to bust some kneecaps if the local PD said or did the wrong thing.
Right on, BSD. Read this POS statement they just issued via Twitter:
“The FBI Agents Association appreciates FBI Director Chris Wray standing shoulder to shoulder with the men and women of the FBI as we work together to protect our country from criminal and national security threats.
As Director Wray noted, FBI Special Agents have remained steadfast in their dedication to professionalism, and we remain focused on our important work to protect the country from terrorists and criminals—both domestic and international.
Special Agents take a solemn oath to our country and to the Constitution, and the American public continues to be well-served by the world’s preeminent law enforcement agency.”
“Protect our country from criminal and national security threats”. What a joke. A criminal organization that does “stings”, frame-ups and CREATES national security threats.
That they even issued this POS statement tells you a LOT about what is going on. Essentially, they are at WAR with you, me, and everyone else in the country. Rotten from top to bottom. If I hear another smacked ass pundit or politician say the rank and file of the FBI are decent people, I’ma puke. Those field agents are the ones running the stings and the frame-ups, busting down doors and murdering people in cold blood.
Anyone decent who worked for the FBI is long gone. If anyone decent shows up on staff, the management gets rid of them as soon as possible. What a joke.
Well, does anyone know of any great accomplishments from the FBI? Something that you don’t have to look up in Wikipedia? Something that doesn’t have to do with Al Capone? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
Seriously, just abolish the sucker. Turn essential duties over to the US Marshals, Homeland Security, the DEA or whatever. Fuggin’ bunch of thug pricks.
This guy makes a very good case for abolishing it:
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/columnists/howie_carr/2018/01/carr_scandal_ridden_fbi_must_be_abolished
Survey Says….nuttin’. No achievements, no accomplishments. Nothing positive, anyway.
I thought Efrem Zimbalist Jr. did a pretty good job.
LOL, Blue, I got a good laugh out of that one.
The most recent accomplishments I’m aware of are the sting they did on Joy Cooper, the Mayor of Hallandale Beach in Florida and the hostage they shot to death in Houston. Aside from the McCabe caper, that is.
Joy Cooper may not be the most savory person in the world, but up until the FBI “stung” her, she had committed no crime. So what does the FBI do? Well, by golly, instead of taking down a drug or human trafficking ring, of which we have plenty in Florida, or investigating Debbie Wasserman Schultz, or looking into finacial or real estate fraud (which we also have plenty of in Florida), in other words, the rampant existing crime, they use taxpayer money to set up an elaborate production to bribe a woman for a few grand.
Way ta go!
Makes you wonder if the FBI elite are simply an arm of the dem party and the people the FBI set-up double crossed someone in the party.
The evidence is certainly there methinks. Kind of like the IRS targeting certain individuals.
There’s always the X-files…
an arm of the dem party…
I don’t keep up with all the latest scandals, but I think there is a “party” that embraces dems and repubs and is above the partisanship circus. Remember Bush endorsing Hillary?
Global Elites. Trump and those of us who threw that grenade at them are their biggest worry.
EGADS! When will it ever end? Now comes Jimmy The Weasel with one of the craziest. tweets. ever. Now he joins in with his own version of a nervous breakdown:
James Comey, everybody. James Comey:
“All should appreciate the FBI speaking up. I wish more of our leaders would. But take heart: American history shows that, in the long run, weasels and liars never hold the field, so long as good people stand up. Not a lot of schools or streets named for Joe McCarthy.”
B-b-buh-but Jimmy, Muh Russia! What planet is he tweeting from? These people just can’t STFU. He’s been sitting around checking his make-up and stewing in his resentment.
James Comey was FIRED. He can never escape that truth.
The insane democrat solution to poverty.
No need to cut taxes, no need to cut regulations, no need to reign in out of control public unions, no need to cut crime, no need to curb stomp teacher’s unions to improve the schools, no help for a business to start or grow…etc.
All you need 500 people with “money in their pockets” to move downtown…
++++++
From The Day in Connecticut. “The city’s business district has long been stymied by a lack of disposable income, but Mayor Michael Passero expressed optimism that market forces are driving a major change. Passero focused much of his time on his optimism linked with to the rapid pace that developers are scooping up downtown properties. ‘If you break it down into sections, the downtown area is just a pocket of poverty,’ Passero said. ‘People who live downtown aren’t going to the symphony necessarily. Developers are telling us this. The dream would be four, five hundred people with money in their pocket living downtown.’”
, ‘People who live downtown aren’t going to the symphony necessarily. Developers are telling us this.
It’s not hard to figure this out. When tenants are spending 30%, 40%, 50%+ on their income on rent and they are living paycheck to paycheck, no wonder they are not going to upper class entertainment. Lower the rent or increase the wages and maybe some of these tenants might venture beyond Netflix for their entertainment once in a while.
….. or homedebtors spending 50%, 60%+ of their income renting from the bank as housing price declines accelerate.
😁
trump has really changed everything. this is a goldilocks economy people. even legendary investor ray dalio says we are in the sweet spot. Invest accordingly.
dont u love all these corporations kissing trumpsters @ss by handing out 1000.00 bonuses?
Those little crumbs?
I am thinking…
1. Lots of affordable apartments and housing are going to suddenly be vacant and available to American citizens
2. Either we are a country of the rule of law or we are a banana republic
3. There goes the DNC base
+++++
ICE chief warns illegal immigration ‘not going to be OK anymore’: report
Fox News | 2/1/18
In a fiery speech to hundreds of law enforcement officers, the acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement excoriated the political enablers of illegal immigration on Wednesday, saying he’ll “never back down” from safeguarding the border.
Speaking at the Border Security Expo in San Antonio, Thomas Homan singled out sanctuary cities and the ongoing congressional debate over so-called “Dreamers.”
Homan, who said that he “100 percent support[s] the wall,” added that he is “sick and tired of the vilification of the men and women of ICE and the Border Patrol,” according to multiple accounts of his speech.
“If you violate the laws of this country, if you enter illegally, which is a crime, it’s not going to be OK anymore,” Horman said.
Sanctuary cities, Homan charged, endanger federal officers because they often force agents to make arrests in homes and workplaces – rather than controlled environments, like state jails.
Teeny bopper dreamer girl just shot up a middle school in HelLA. Lots of fugly moms (no doubt sucking welfare) teary eyed - hoping ICE shows up and starts cuffing everyone. Its MAGA time!
QE Unwind + DJT New Tax Laws + Rising Interest Rates = The Tipping Point (TPT)
++++
QE - The Gift That Just Kept Giving - Is Now Taking…
ZeroHedge - 02/01/2018
The plan to utilize quantitative easing and avoid direct monetization went like this. The Fed would buy the Treasury debt and Mortgage Backed Securities (remove assets from the market) from the big banks. However, the Fed would force those banks to deposit the new money at the Federal Reserve. This would avoid the trillions of newly created dollars from going in search of the remaining assets (particularly levered from somewhere between 5x’s to 10x’s…turning a trillion into five to 10 trillion…or far more).
What is so interesting is the interplay of QE and excess reserves…resulting in the peak QE impact taking effect long after QE was tapered and had ceased. The trillions in assets remaining with the Fed, but the new cash went looking.
The impact of $800+ billion of pure monetization from late 2014 through year end 2016 was spectacular. In the hands of the largest banks (multiplied by “conservative” leverage somewhere between 5 to 10x’s) could easily amount to trillions in new cash looking for assets. A “bull market” beyond belief should not have been surprising.
However, that change since 2017 should begin to effect the market in 2018. The change in flow from the declining Federal Reserve balance sheet coupled with fast rising interest payments on Excess Reserves (billions for the banks for not taking any risk, not making any loans to keep the cash locked away) should help to hold the Excess Reserves from declining any faster than the Fed’s balance sheet reduction.
The Federal Reserve’s net income adds $70 billion. Its revenue comes from a variety of activities. For example, the Fed is the bank for federal government agencies. It pays interest on the billions of dollars in operating funds deposited by these agencies. In addition, the Fed owns $4.4 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities. It acquired through quantitative easing. It earns interest on those notes and bonds. (Source: “Federal Reserve Board Announces Reserve Bank Income and Expense Data and Transfers to the Treasury for 2016,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, January 10, 2017.)
https://www.thebalance.com/current-u-s-federal-government-tax-revenue-3305762
im a little curious here. the fed pays the treasury for the interest it gets on its treasuries. they call it income.
but where does that interest come from that it gets on those treasuries on its balance sheet?
the interest payments come from the issuer of the bond, that would be the treasury.
so essentially this is a reimbursement. after u take out fed admin costs there is a loss.
essentially the only costs the govt has when the fed buys its bonds is admin costs.
any thoughts here?
Where did the money to pay for the $4.4 trillion in quantitative easing come from?
thin air digital dollars
they keep sayn they are gonna bring those dollars home with QT.
Which means they will have to sell all the bonds they hold. What if they are no takers?
I guarantee u there are no takers at these yields.
They don’t have to sell the bonds. They only need to stop buying more.
Good or bad for property values in Chicago? Gentrification?
I mean - The place does has “Beautiful brick bungalows and Victorian houses line manicured lawns where groups of children play.”
+++++
The Strange Realities of Chicago’s Gang Wars
War is Boring | 2/1/18 | Patrick Burke
Driving through the residential parts of Austin when local schools get out makes the area seem like a wonderful place to live. Beautiful brick bungalows and Victorian houses line manicured lawns where groups of children play.
Night brings out a different Austin. A warm summer night means the 15th and 25th district police scanners, which cover Austin, are buzzing with horror stories. Domestic violence, person with a gun, gang fights, shots fired and requests that the ambulance “hurry.”
The streets are deserted except for groups of mostly young men standing at street corners and gas stations.
Young gang members in small, disorganized cliques shoot each other over petty personal feuds that they play out on social media with the hope of gaining street notoriety and possibly fame as a rapper.
The slang term for such notoriety is “clout.” And whether a gang member’s goal is to gain respect in his or her neighborhood or become a famous rapper, chasing “clout” is the main reason for gang wars in Chicago.
For instance, Mark’s main tactic is to call on women to lure rivals to a location with the offer of sex. “Like, say I might know a bitch from that area [of the rival gang], and go, like, ‘You go to school with this nigga,’ or ‘You live by him. Get up with him, and act like you finna’ fuck him and shit. And have him to meet you somewhere.’ And then she call us and tell us.” That’s when Mark’s gang moves in.
Another way is to simply “spot ’em, drop ’em, got ’em type shit.” Meaning, hunting rivals in their territory. But Mark pointed out that there’s usually a simpler way to find rivals. “You can always find a motherfucker at they baby mama’s house. Like at his bitch house. Like you can always find him there.”
Obama’s “sons” LOLZ
“The U.S. government’s total revenue is estimated to be $3.654 trillion for fiscal year 2018.
Income taxes contribute $1.836 trillion, half of the total. Another third ($1.224 trillion) comes from your payroll taxes. This includes $892 billion for Social Security, $270 billion for Medicare and $50 billion for unemployment insurance.
Corporate taxes add $355 billion, only 10 percent. Customs excise taxes and tariffs on imports contribute $146 billion, just 4 percent”
https://www.thebalance.com/current-u-s-federal-government-tax-revenue-3305762
Corporations dont pay much taxes do they? Now they get a tax cut so less revenue will be coming in.
This will mean more borrowing to fill the holes.
America, until January 1, 2018, had the HIGHEST corporate income tax rates in the industrialized world.
Didn’t’ really seem to help.
International Corporations have an army of lawyers and tax accountants to minimize paying the HIGHEST corporate income tax rates in the industrialized world.
Like taking “losses” in America and keeping profits other places.
And mid sized American Corporations without an international presence get crushed.
Maybe something different needs to be tried.
And part of that something “different” is cutting spending without democrats screaming that children will starve and grandma will be thrown out on the street if even one inefficient government program is cut by even 1%.
with plans to turn malls into residential apts=lots of apartments
where are there positive rents now?
Seattle was the last of the Mohegans
Actually that’s not a bad idea, great for seniors too. They’ll have to punch of lot of windows in the exterior space, but malls already have utilities, parking and indoor common space. They could keep the food court, convert the Macy’s Home into a Safeway, convert the Lord and Taylor into a medical facility, and have nice little indoor town.
Donks Contruction Inc
Think Landmark mall in Alexandria
Interesting about the poverty in Connecticut cities. I was up there for work about 20 years ago, and was surprised that the smaller cities I traveled through — Waterbury, for example — were so decrepit. I had this image of prosperous, bucolic southern New England, but the reality was anything but.
Is putting luxury apartments there going to fix this? I thought luxury housing followed good jobs, rather than the other way around, but clearly almost nobody believes that.
Didn’t you get the mayor’s (D) memo?
All you need is 500 people with “money in their pockets” to move downtown…problem SOLVED!
The REIC has really conjured up some doozies. Remember the “rich renter” fabrication? The $4,000 a month Atlanta apartments with free booze? Anything and everything to justify bubble pricing, after the fact of course. All the while - “shortage”! It’s gonna be a disaster.
‘Over the last 10 years, we’ve been the fastest growing urban district in the country. We’ve added over 20,000 students and sometimes adding 3,000 students in a year. In the last year, suddenly that growth has stopped’
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.
Waterbury was decrepit in 1977 and I’m pretty sure quite a while before that.
“I had this image of prosperous, bucolic southern New England, but the reality was anything but.”
You were working in the wrong towns.
Read the comments from the people who live there.
“Parts of Williams Street are on the brink of caving in from all the pot holes. Downtown needs attention, but so does the rest of New London.”
I always had that false impression of CT, too - that is until I flew into Hartford to meet family. The first evening at the Hotel I decided to go pick up dinner for everybody. Let’s just say I turned down a few wrong streets that quickly changed everything for me. I couldn’t wait to get out of town the next morning.
Hartford is the pits, the absolute pits.
Another day, another bevy of bad news for Bitcoin HODLers…
#Business News
February 1, 2018 / 4:51 AM / Updated an hour ago
Bitcoin skids to two-month low after Facebook ad ban unnerves investors
Tommy Wilkes, Jemima Kelly
LONDON (Reuters) - Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, skidded 11 percent on Thursday to its lowest since late November, as a Facebook ban on cryptocurrency adverts and a growing regulatory backlash against the nascent market frightened investors.
A bitcoin (virtual currency) coin placed on Dollar banknotes is seen in this illustration picture, November 6, 2017. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
Thursday’s drop to as low as $9,022 on the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp exchange BTC=BTSP left bitcoin trading at less than half the peak price of almost $20,000 it reached in December. It slid more than 26 percent last month, in its worst monthly performance since January 2015.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-bitcoin/bitcoin-skids-to-two-month-low-after-facebook-ad-ban-unnerves-investors-idUSKBN1FL57N
I watched a few of those crying videos yesterday. It’s bizarre. One guy mentioned this was his only way to get ahead in life. Saw some where the guys quit their jobs to “focus” on their wealth building.
they deserve to lose their @sses.
I used to work for a network marketing company, or multi-level marketing company. These things are thinly veiled pyramid schemes that overcharge for consumer products and rely on new recruits to bring in more “distributors.” Bill Ackman has gained notoriety by shorting (and losing) against Herbalife for several years now. These MLM companies thrive by preying on people who are working and getting no where. They are desperate and so they will believe almost anything that promises them a pathway out of their current situation. I tend to believe that BitConnect people were in somewhat of the same situation.
“These MLM companies thrive by preying on people who are working and getting no where.”
Stupid, you left out the word stupid.
“They are desperate and so they will believe almost anything that promises them a pathway out of their current situation.”
Desperate and stupid.
“I tend to believe that BitConnect people were in somewhat of the same situation.”
If you were to include the word “stupid” several times in your analysis then I would totally agree with you.
Yes, desperate and stupid.
They may not always be desperate but they will probably always be stupid.
You cannot fix stupid.
These MLM companies thrive by preying on people who are working and getting no where
—————
And the ‘easy money’ folks, combined with the thrill of owning a small business and acting like an entrepreneurial person. Ever heard of Lularoe? I think we all know of a bored housewife selling this junk.
I used to work for a network marketing company, or multi-level marketing company.
Sounds like a Utah thing :-).
The beauty ones (DoTerra, NuSkin, etc.) do well in China. So as a guy that attends LDS church in China regularly I see some of those guys there on business trips. They seem like nice guys but I always wonder how they resolve the ethical issues. I guess Upton Sinclair was right.
MLM is actually illegal in mainland China.
Carl, how does the LDS church function in China? Do they have to swear their allegiance to the party and not recognize the leadership in Salt Lake? Or is it underground, like some Catholic and Protestant churches who refuse to swear their allegiance to the party?
MLM is actually illegal in mainland China.
It may be. But I see lots of business that WE would call MLM there. They must call it something else there.
Carl, how does the LDS church function in China? Do they have to swear their allegiance to the party and not recognize the leadership in Salt Lake? Or is it underground, like some Catholic and Protestant churches who refuse to swear their allegiance to the party?
Actually they’ve chosen a middle path working with the government. Government provides them with a meeting place and “security” but doesn’t allow them to lease or buy any real estate for themselves. The foreigners are pretty much allowed to do their normal thing using the provided facility EXCEPT they are reminded weekly from the pulpit that there will be no missionary work of any kind. They are not to even discuss religious matters with the locals…even locals who belong to the same church. The locals have their own meeting location somewhere else in the city. I don’t know much about the local congregation or its relationship with the government. Totally separate.
Not allowed to talk to them? Interesting.
Speaking of ChyNAH, rut-roh Rorge! They’re having a run on the banks, apparently:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-01/chinese-stocks-tumble-hong-kong-officials-monitor-surge-atm-withdrawals
“And that anxiety is only increased by the latest report from Reuters that cash withdrawals at Hong Kong ATMs have surged, prompting scrutiny from monetary authorities, the banking industry, and police amid media reports that mainland Chinese are withdrawing hundreds of thousands of dollars using up to 50 cards at a time.”
Is it go time?
It is the bubble ponzi mentality.
Just like flippers who want to be the next Donald Trump.
These guys think they are going to be the next Google by swiping right and buying some digital beanie babies.
++++
“It’s bizarre. One guy mentioned this was his only way to get ahead in life. Saw some where the guys quit their jobs to “focus” on their wealth building.”
“It’s bizarre. One guy mentioned this was his only way to get ahead in life. Saw some where the guys quit their jobs to “focus” on their wealth building.”
Gifts from God.
😁
This link is meant for those who decided to plunge deeply into the financial wonders offered up by numerous cryptocurrency investments …
https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org/
“BitConnect Carlos” has resurfaced on Twitter, with a headline image not of himself, but a black-and-white picture of a shirtless Pablo Escobar. El Patron himself. An interesting choice to be sure.
https://twitter.com/carlosmatos80?lang=en
People confuse speculation with wealth building again? If you were brain dead from 2006 - 2009 you deserve to loose yer butt this time around.
Saw some where the guys quit their jobs to “focus” on their wealth building.
Sounds a lot like day traders 18 years ago. Who, if you asked them, were all geniuses who had found a much better way to make a living that the rest of us could only dream about. A few months later it was over.
Let the YouTube sad story panhandling begin…
Stop us if you’ve heard this before: Bitcoin is tanking right now
News 2 hours ago
Bitcoin Price Today USD
Image Source: Ahn Young-joon/AP/REX/Shutterstock
Chris Smith @chris_writes
February 1st, 2018 at 8:41 AM
Welcome to the second major Bitcoin bloodbath of 2018. The price of Bitcoin dropped below the $10,000 mark yet again on Thursday, making this the second time in a matter of days bitcoin broke through the support level. As always with Bitcoin price drops, all the other cryptocurrencies are following and the entire market has lost billions in valuation in a matter of hours.
http://bgr.com/2018/02/01/bitcoin-price-today-usd-chart-crash-india-tether-worries/
Carpe diem! Seize the day and BUY THE DIP!
YOLO! Max out that credit card and GO ALL IN!
The future is yours!
(and mine 😁)
No lie, just got a spam email a few minutes ago pumping a bitcoin IRA!
I’m guessing that was you, banker
“The Government does not consider cryptocurrencies legal tender or coin and will take all measures to eliminate use of these crypto-assets in financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payment system,” Jaitley said…”
http://fortune.com/2018/02/01/bitcoin-price-india/
So it begins; bitcoin enthusiasts will get a lesson on what money is, and who gets to decide.
and who gets to decide
And that’s the part where it matters which currencies are backed by which armies. I have a bitcoin buddy that hoped that no longer mattered. Because blockchain.
And I wonder where is Joe Smith, he of the $10M+ in bitcoin. My guess is he sold.
“And I wonder where is Joe Smith, he of the $10M+ in bitcoin. My guess is he sold.”
You’re pretty gullible if you believe his nonsense. Pretty much all of the people who brag of mass wealth online have none.
Poor ol’ Sh!tcoin, down to $8,400 a few minutes ago. That’s going to look like a dream come true compared to what’s coming.
‘Most of the top 25 cryptocurrencies are seeing double-digit percentage declines over the past 24 hours, according to price-tracking websites CoinMarketCap and OnChainFX. Per CMC, tokens such as IOTA and Lisk have seen declines in excess of 15% in the past day as of the time of writing.’
https://www.coindesk.com/2-month-low-bitcoin-price-drops-9k/
It’s an absolute bloodbath, and it’s gaining momentum.
through the support level…
I wonder what it takes to support something that doesn’t even exist.
“through the support level”
Who the fawk comes up with this “support level” BS?
“Those plans were soon dashed, however, as Chinese regulators upped their scrutiny of Wanda’s heavy debt load and potentially risky bets overseas, transforming the company from aggressive acquirer into desperate seller seemingly overnight.”
Debt-fueled speculation in high-risk ventures ain’t all that any longer.
when is the PBOC gonna stop printing money to buy out debt?
Newcastle, WA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY On Skyrocketing Housing Inventory In Seattle Area
https://www.movoto.com/newcastle-wa/market-trends/
another boring superbowl this year? sales will pick up after this weekend.
Wrong like a broken clock, HA. I regularly visit friends in that neighborhood. There are zero houses for sale there, and it’s one of the nicest, older neighborhoods on the 405 corridor.
Hello my good friend.
Redmond, WA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Housing Correction Expands Across State
https://www.zillow.com/redmond-wa-98052/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Your property taxes are going to have you squealing like a pig this year, jp. Have you watched Deliverance lately? LMFAO. Better vote down that new school levy on the special vote coming up this month.
FWIW… no income taxes in WA state.
Australia is set to tighten its rules on foreign investment in the power and agricultural sectors.
https://click.email.fortune.com/?qs=70f3756eaab1d77b6c950de98ab28f89bdbdb6c4eb943efe1cccd99c3fe12ed985ca994eaab6670f5236dbc5cba9d0702ecf057732ffc57e
Is it coincidental to see interest rates spiking up and stocks tanking at the exact moment Janet Yellen is leaving the Fed? It’s almost as though she triggered the Great Unwind as a farewell present to Wall Street.
10-year Treasury yield hits 2.75% for first time in three years
By Mark DeCambre
Published: Feb 1, 2018 7:54 a.m. ET
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields extend their ascent on Thursday, carving out a fresh three-year high a day after the Federal Reserve hinted that a rate increase as soon as its next meeting, in March, was likely.
How are Treasurys performing?
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +1.15% added 2.4 basis points to 2.746%, after briefly hitting a high at 2.752% earlier Thursday morning in New York. The yield move furthered the 10-year’s advance to its highest level since April 2014. The two-year note yield TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.39% the most sensitive to changes to monetary policy, picked up 2.3 basis points to 2.165%, while the 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, +0.93% climbed 2.6 basis points to 2.970%.
…
Isn’t it interesting how current Fed chairs find bubbles to be invisible, while former Fed chairs have no trouble spotting them?
Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan Sees Bubbles in Stocks and Bonds
By Jeanna Smialek
January 31, 2018, 12:23 PM PST
The bond bubble will be the critical one, Greenspan says
Notes that the U.S. is working toward higher interest rates
“The bond market bubble will eventually be the critical issue,” Greenspan tells Bloomberg Television.
The man who made the term “irrational exuberance” famous says investors are at it again.
“There are two bubbles: We have a stock market bubble, and we have a bond market bubble,” Alan Greenspan, 91, said Wednesday on Bloomberg Television with Tom Keene and Scarlet Fu. Greenspan, who led the Federal Reserve from 1987 until 2006, memorably used the phrase to describe asset values during the 1990’s dot-com bubble.
Greenspan’s comments come as stock indexes remain near record highs, despite selling off in recent days, and as the yields on government notes and bonds hover not far from historic lows. Interest rates are expected to move up in coming years as the Fed continues with a campaign to gradually tighten monetary policy.
“At the end of the day, the bond market bubble will eventually be the critical issue, but for the short term it’s not too bad,” Greenspan said. “But we’re working, obviously, toward a major increase in long-term interest rates, and that has a very important impact, as you know, on the whole structure of the economy.”
…
‘we’re working, obviously, toward a major increase in long-term interest rates, and that has a very important impact, as you know, on the whole structure of the economy’
These apartment guys are in for a shock. How’s that 4% cap rate looking with 3% bonds?
who is gonna buy the 1.8 trillion n bonds the FED and treasury are gonna sell this year?
Speaking of bonds - what do you do when you’re broke as a joke and you run out of borrowed cash? Sell some more junk bonds to raise more, of course!
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-sells-546-million-of-bonds-to-raise-cash-for-production-ramp-up-2018-02-01
i guess in bankruptcy they could get pennies on the dollar back.
common shareholders get a swift kick in the sack.
More likely Apple buys them with their cash hoard since project Titan is MIA.
The (((tribe))) lost the levers of power, so now they’ll do everything they can to crash the system. I just hope at the end they’ll all hang from lamp posts.
every member of the (((tribe))) ?
No more Obamabux for the Department of Energy in Denver:
https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2018/01/31/trumpwhite-house-wants-major-cuts-to-agency-that.html
I quit working there in early 2016 because I knew this was coming.
Alot of people there have no skill set or recent experience that will get them a job in the private sector
I once visited the NREL. It was a den of sloth, no one was working in any of the labs and the office area was quiet as a graveyard.
Solyndra made headlines because they lost $500 million.
There were hundreds of other projects that received Recovery Act grant money in amounts of $50K, $100K, $250K etc that failed financial audits and/or were cancelled mid project. But you’ll probably never hear about any of those…
I believe we’ve heard of all of those who went on to become a great success.
Denver(Highland), CO Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/highland-denver-co/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
‘The metro area, where developers are churning out thousands of new rentals, and tenants have the luxury to bargain, was the only one that showed a decline in rent for the publicly traded landlord in 2017′
This is caca too. Equity Residential said rents were down in SF a couple of years ago.
‘Passero downplayed the recent donation by the Tagliatela family of 21 of its unsold luxury condos at Harbour Towers’
They did give it away.
I had the same thought. Then I wondered if the new owners have to pay hefty HOA fees.
Murphy, TX Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/murphy-tx/market-trends/
i like your style today.
Wu Tang Clan — 7th Chamber Part II (1993):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMDGsxSEbOE
Herndon, VA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY On Ballooning Housing Vacancy Rate
https://www.movoto.com/herndon-va/market-trends/
For financial market watchers with a sense of humor, Bitcoin is the story that never stops giving.
Sexy
BitcoinButtcoin:‘We Like Naked Girls.’ This Bitcoin Conference Rented a Miami Strip Club for ‘Networking’
By Bloomberg February 1, 2018
http://fortune.com/2018/02/01/bitcoin-conference-strip-club/
The North American Bitcoin Conference wrapped up 10 hours of speeches by inviting 5,000 attendees to what it called a networking party. “It’s been a long day,” read the description. “Join us at E11even for some networking and R&R. Or dancing.”
The agenda didn’t mention that the networking event would be held in a 20,000-square-foot Miami strip club, praised on review sites for aerial acrobats and a relatively permissive attitude toward touching. During the mixer, waitresses in revealing tops and lingerie served drinks, and when the event technically ended at 11 p.m., plenty of attendees kept their conference badges on and stayed to party.
“We’re a bunch of dudes with a lot of money in our 20s. We like naked girls,” said Jeff Scott, a cryptocurrency trader from New York. He got a table for 12 with a hedge fund analyst and the heads of two startups, and said the evening wasn’t much different than his typical night in a strip club. “If you don’t like it, that’s fine, but you’re not going to expect us to change.”
Not everyone agreed. As financial wizards and tech entrepreneurs before them, cryptocurrency’s early enthusiasts are confronting more mainstream expectations for decency and decorum. The chief executive officer of Dash Core Group Inc., the corporate sponsor of the event, said he hadn’t known the venue was a strip club and was “deeply disappointed.” Several women who attended the conference said the party made them uncomfortable; many chose not to go.
“…He got a table for 12 with a hedge fund analyst and the heads of two startups…”
Wall St. insiders are neck deep in crypto.
Can’t think of a more deserving lot to have their asses handed to them.
Agreed.
“…He got a table for 12 with a hedge fund analyst and the heads of two startups…”
“Can’t think of a more deserving lot to have their asses handed to them.”
Uh, the asses that will be/are being handed to them are attached to somebody else.
It’s OPM, folks. OPM. It’s funny how enormous risks and blantant stupidity can be exercised when the money that gets placed at risk belongs to somebody else.
Both funny pecular and funny ha ha.
😁
Brain Genius Submerges His Bitcoin Mining Rig in a Giant Vat of Oil
The immersion-cooled Bitcoin mining rig cost about $120,000 to make and looks like something straight out of ‘Stargate.’
Daniel Oberhaus
Feb 1 2018, 10:42am
Image: Limping-Zebra/Reddit
At the core of most cryptocurrency networks are miners, the people who use specialized computer equipment to secure the cryptocurrency’s blockchain by performing mathematical equations millions of times per second. In exchange for this computing power, and the electricity it takes to run the computer, these miners are rewarded in cryptocurrency proportionate to their contribution to the network. Given the high cost of electricity in many places and the computing equipment it takes to mine, it makes sense that miners try to maximize their return in any way possible.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/437gnn/immersion-cooling-bitcoin-mining
One Bitcoin Transaction Now Uses as Much Energy as Your House in a Week
Bitcoin’s surge in price has sent its electricity consumption soaring.
Christopher Malmo
Nov 1 2017, 12:20pm
Bitcoin’s incredible price run to break over $7,000 this year has sent its overall electricity consumption soaring, as people worldwide bring more energy-hungry computers online to mine the digital currency.
An index from cryptocurrency analyst Alex de Vries, aka Digiconomist, estimates that with prices the way they are now, it would be profitable for Bitcoin miners to burn through over 24 terawatt-hours of electricity annually as they compete to solve increasingly difficult cryptographic puzzles to “mine” more Bitcoins. That’s about as much as Nigeria, a country of 186 million people, uses in a year.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ywbbpm/bitcoin-mining-electricity-consumption-ethereum-energy-climate-change
Bitcoin trader after a discussion with his accountant: ‘F**k taxes’
By Shawn Langlois
Published: Jan 31, 2018 7:33 p.m. ET
Bitcoin traders are bracing for a costly tax season.
Cryptocurrency traders, relatively new to the “investing” game and coming off a year of incredible gains, are getting a crash course in what traditional stock flippers have known for a long time: Uncle Sam’s prying fingers can seriously ding profits.
So how do they feel about it?
Well, Latex-man, for one, is feeling burned by the discovery of his hefty tax burden. He summed up his frustration in Reddit’s burgeoning cryptocurrency group, which counts more than 500,000 members:
“F**k taxes man. This is so f**ked, it’s like I didn’t earn anything.”
Welcome to the real world, Latex-man.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-trader-after-a-discussion-with-his-accountant-fk-taxes-2018-01-31
If you have FOMO, then beg, borrow or steal as many $ as you can get your hands on, BTFD, and HODL forever!
People are Buying Bitcoin with Debit and Credit Cards
By Paul Ebeling on January 11, 2018
People are Buying Bitcoin with Debit and Credit Cards
Some people afraid of missing out on the Bitcoin Bull Run has underfunded investors placing bets on credit.
The data suggests that about 18% of Bitcoin investors used a credit card to fund purchases of the cryptocurrency, according to a survey of 672 active investors conducted in December.
Of those, 22% could not pay off their balance after buying the digital currency.
Many more investors are using their debit card to make their buys.
Even beyond those surveyed, interest in buying Bitcoin with a credit card has surged, according to Google Trends.
But going into debt for exposure to such a volatile issue, prone to price swings of plus or minus as much as 30% a day, comes with heavy risk.
Such a move “is not a wise decision no matter which way it is spun,” a LendEDU research analyst wrote. “There is no guarantee that Bitcoin investment returns will be profitable in the long run, but one can guarantee that the credit card company will need to be paid back.”
Nearly 90% of those surveyed who said they had not paid off their credit card bill said that they plan on doing so using money generated from selling their Bitcoin.
Bitcoin registered a 1,400% gainer in Y 2017.
http://www.livetradingnews.com/people-buying-bitcoin-debit-credit-cards-69731.html#.WnPMHEuIY0M
How’s the Bitcoin tether holding up?
8,630.65
-515.51 -5.64%
Previous Close
9,146.15
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/cryptocurrency/btcusd
$8,706.10 Bitcoin price
−$1,393.90 Since yesterday (USD)
−13.8% Since yesterday (%)
$1,180.23 Bitcoin Cash price
−$1,426.29 Since last month (USD)
−54.72% Since last month (%)
Is a 55% LOSS in a month, a good return? Bwahahahahahahaaa!!!
Tether and Bitfinex subpoenaed by the CFTC as Bitcoin drops below $10K
Not looking good.
Image: traviswolfe/getty
By Jack Morse
2 days ago
The price of Bitcoin plummeted below $10,000 Tuesday morning as news broke that The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission had subpoenaed Tether and Bitfinex, a so-called stablecoin cryptocurrency and one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, respectively.
First reported by Bloomberg, news of the December 6 subpoenas follows allegations from critics of Tether that the digital currency may not in fact be backed on a one-to-one basis with U.S. dollars as its founders claim.
SEE ALSO: A little-known token may be fueling Bitcoin’s rise. Critics say it’s a scam.
“We routinely receive legal process from law enforcement agents and regulators conducting investigations,” Bitfinex and Tether said in a statement published by Bloomberg. “It is our policy not to comment on any such requests.”
While the exact motivation behind the subpoena is unclear at this time, Tether skeptics have straight up called the digital token a “scam,” and have predicted that its unraveling could bring the price of Bitcoin down by as much as 80 percent.
We have reached out to Tether for comment, and will update this post when and if we hear back. In the meantime, however, the price of Bitcoin continues to fall. At the time of this writing it sits at $9,890.
https://mashable.com/2018/01/30/tether-bitfinex-cftc-subpoenaed/#bF0WxjLxMgqQ
Who knew the supposed tether was actually a broken bungee cord?
Bitcoin Prices Fall Below $9,000 as 2018 Continues to Pummel Crypto
Here Are 3 Risks of Investing in Cryptocurrency
If you’re planning on investing in cryptocurrency, check out these 3 risks you could be taking with your money.
By Lucinda Shen
February 1, 2018
Those who bought Bitcoin in December must be in a world of pain.
Bitcoin prices slid 12% to $8,897 Thursday, deepening a selloff that has persisted since the start of 2018. Investors who bought Bitcoin at its peak of about $20,000 in December have consequentially seen their asset lose over half its value over the past month. It’s Bitcoin’s lowest point since November, with the digital asset having lost some $84 billion in market cap over the last month.
Other cryptocurrencies also fell Thursday, with Ethereum prices dipping by 7% to $1,030, and Ripple falling 11% to 99 cents.
Continued concern about whether Bitcoin prices—and perhaps those of other cryptocurrencies—are being artificially propped up could be driving the slide.
http://fortune.com/2018/02/01/bitcoin-price-below-9000/
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CITY & BUSINESS
Bitcoin price LIVE: BTC loses $700 as Tether TANTRUM threatens 80% price crash
BITCOIN has fallen below the symbolic $10,000 mark following the controversy over cryptocurrency tether - a unique digital coin, bought and valued like-for-like with the US Dollar - being artificially propped up by a widely used exchange called Bitfinex.
By David Dawkins
20:54, Thu, Feb 1, 2018 | UPDATED: 20:56, Thu, Feb 1, 2018
https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/912961/bitcoin-price-live-latest-tether-ripple-ethereum-blockchain-fall-rise
The poor HODLers…
Last Updated: Feb 2, 2018 12:53 a.m. EST
8,591.60
-554.55 -6.06%
Previous Close
9,146.15
Bubble, bubble, fraud and trouble with bitcoin
By PAUL KRUGMAN
New York Times News Service
Published on February 1, 2018 9:05AM
This 2013 photo shows bitcoin tokens at software engineer Mike Caldwell’s shop in Sandy, Utah.
AP Photo/Rick Bowmer
Recently my barber asked me whether he should put all his money in bitcoin. And the truth is that if he’d bought bitcoin, say, a year ago he’d be feeling pretty good right now. On the other hand, Dutch speculators who bought tulip bulbs in 1635 also felt pretty good for a while, until tulip prices collapsed in early 1637.
So is bitcoin a giant bubble that will end in grief? Yes. But it’s a bubble wrapped in techno-mysticism inside a cocoon of libertarian ideology. And there’s something to be learned about the times we live in by peeling away that wrapping.
If you’ve been living in a cave and haven’t heard of bitcoin, it’s the biggest, best-known example of a “cryptocurrency” — an asset that has no physical existence, consisting of nothing but a digital record stored on computers. What makes cryptocurrencies different from ordinary bank accounts, which are also nothing but digital records, is that they don’t reside in the servers of any particular financial institution. Instead, a bitcoin’s existence is documented by records distributed in many places.
And your ownership isn’t verified by proving (and hence revealing) your identity. Instead, ownership of a bitcoin is verified by possession of a secret password, which — using techniques derived from cryptography, the art of writing or solving codes — lets you access that virtual coin without revealing any information you don’t choose to.
It’s a nifty trick. But what is it good for?
http://www.dailyastorian.com/columns/20180201/paul-krugman-bubble-bubble-fraud-and-trouble-with-bitcoin
HODLers unite!
I Lost a Fortune in Bitcoin – But I’m Still All In
I’m a writer in my 20s, still banking on bitcoin to strike it rich
Sean Burch | Last Updated: January 31, 2018 @ 1:38 PM
https://www.thewrap.com/did-your-bitcoin-mini-fortune-get-destroyed-too/
Did you buy your friends and family top-notch holiday presents, thanks to bitcoin? I did.
It was easily the most giving Christmas of my life: Fancy perfumes, Lakers tickets, countless toys. Nothing’s too good for your loved ones when you’re a bitcoin tycoon.
When I was buying gifts midway through December, the bitcoin bandwagon was humming on all cylinders. The OG cryptocurrency had blitzed from sub-$1,000 per coin at the beginning of 2017 to more than $19,000. With futures (contracts allowing Wall Street-types to bet on the price) launching, daily coverage on CNBC, and major exchanges adding hundreds of thousands of trading accounts, it looked like the crypto-revolution was in full effect.
I’m a writer in my 20s
Every generation needs their own bubble.
ANALYSIS | Feb 01, 19:56 GMT
Don’t Blame Media or India for Bitcoin Debacle: Just HODL?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock’s Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc
India announced measures against Bitcoin sending it tumbling. Or so headlines claim. That’s not really what’s happening.
Reuters claims Bitcoin Slides as Facebook Ad Ban, India Clampdown Unnerve investors.
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, skidded 11 percent on Thursday to its lowest since November, as a Facebook ban on cryptocurrency adverts and a growing regulatory backlash against the nascent market frightened investors.
Officials have said cryptocurrencies are used by criminals to launder money. India, which has likened the market to a Ponzi scheme, on Thursday vowed to eliminate their use..
The Indian finance minister said his government would take “all measures” to remove crypto-assets in “financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payment system”, Arun Jaitley told parliament.
Facebook said in a post on its website this week that it was banning all advertising that “promote financial products and services that are frequently associated with misleading or deceptive promotional practices, such as binary options, initial coin offerings and cryptocurrency”.
It was not clear whether the ban would affect all cryptocurrency adverts on the social media site. Facebook could not immediately be reached for comment.
Don’t Blame India or Facebook
I am reading lots of Tweets and article today all blaming India. The HOLDLers see another “last chance” to buy under $10,000.
India and Facebook have nothing to do with this. Think of all the reports of crackdowns in China, South Korea and other places that did not matter one iota.
What is happening?
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dont-blame-media-or-india-for-bitcoin-debacle-just-hodl-201802011956
Users
Katy Perry’s Bitcoin Manicure May Foretell the Coming Crypto
By Heather Schwedel
Jan 25, 20182:02 PM
If you thought that cryptocurrency and Katy Perry’s nail art existed in parallel worlds that would never intersect, think again, for intersected they have: Katy Perry now has a crypto-themed manicure.
The singer posted a photo of her nails on Instagram on Thursday, tagging, in addition to her nail artist, an assortment of crypto-related accounts like ethereum_updates, stellarlumens, bit, moneroofficial, and litecoinofficial. Against a background of American dollar bills, each nail is adorned with a small 3-D bauble representing a different cryptocurrency (five of them; they repeat on the other hand). The post has more than 100,000 likes.
https://slate.com/technology/2018/01/katy-perrys-bitcoin-manicure-may-foretell-the-coming-crypto-collapse.html
Back about ten years ago there was a Jay-Z rap video where somebody flashed a fistful of Euros. I had an account with Euros with Everbank at the time, felt great about myself, and therefore failed to recognize the video as a leading indicator that big trouble was on the way.
Brace yourself for collateral damage in other risk assets, like stocks and houses, as investors assume the fetal position in the wake of the cryptocollapse.
90% of bitcoin’s value could get wiped out, Wall Street veteran Peter Boockvar warns
Stephanie Landsman | @stephlandsman
Published 5:00 PM ET Sun, 21 Jan 2018 CNBC.com
Wall Street veteran Peter Boockvar predicts an epic crash will hit the cryptocurrency market.
He isn’t sure if it’ll come to a grinding halt or be a slow and steady drop — but he says it’s coming.
Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, is certain crypto is in a giant bubble, and the air is already coming out.
“When something goes parabolic like this has, it typically ends up to where that parabola began,” he said on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”
Boockvar, a CNBC contributor, contends bitcoin is in danger of dropping 90 percent from current levels. He calls it a classic bubble.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if over the next year it’s down to $1,000 to $3,000,” he added.
That’s where bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency player, was trading less than 12 months ago. Friday afternoon it was trading above $11,000.
Boockvar sees the collapse coming in tandem as interest rates rise around the globe. He blames central banks, including the Federal Reserve, for the cryptocurrency craze due to their easy money policies that were designed to ease the effects of the global financial crisis.
“You have to wonder if we never heard of quantitative easing, would there have been cryptocurrencies?” Boockvar asked rhetorically in Thursday’s interview.
Once the cryptocurrency market cracks, he contends, investor attitudes toward risk assets will change. According to Boockvar, the stock market could see collateral damage, but it would all be based on psychology — not on anything that’s fundamentally wrong with the economy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/19/bitcoin-could-lose-90-percent-of-its-value-wall-st-veteran-boockvar-warns.html
Don’t ignore your raging FOMO!
Trending Now
Investing #MarketMoves
Jan 7, 2018 @ 12:11 PM
The Five Stages Of Not Owning Bitcoin Grief
Peter Tchir,
Contributor
Where Are You In Terms of Bitcoin Grief? (Shutterstock)
As we enter into 2018 it is clearly impossible to ignore Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency for that matter. They have broken into everyday discussions on financial markets. Not only does Bitcoin now regularly flash across your TV screen on financial media but there are two Bitcoin futures contracts and a large number of ETF applications. There are clearly true believers in cryptocurrencies and they were incredibly well rewarded last year. There are those who shout bubble, but have been shouting bubble since Bitcoin was below $100 and are becoming reminiscent of people walking the streets with ‘the end is nigh’ placards. In between are those who are merely dabbling, those who are reluctant but feel compelled to be involved, to those who quite frankly seem to like the adrenaline rush.
As I have been trying to think about where people are in terms of adoption of Bitcoin, I thought of the Kubler-Ross model (link).
Denial. There are still some who just ignore Bitcoin. They don’t hate it, they just don’t see it as relevant. Anything else that has a total market cap this large would resonate for them, but they continue to believe that they can function perfectly well, while ignoring cryptocurrencies, despite them having an ever more obvious influence on markets.
Anger. Anyone still starting bitcoin articles with Tulips in the title is just angry. The person carefully crafting charts plotting other historical bubbles against Bitcoin is angry. Googling Sir Isaac Newton to see how much he lost in the South Sea Bubble is just anger. Talking about how ‘its only paper’ money or forwarding articles detailing how you might be worth $X million on paper but that you can’t spend a bitcoin is just stuck in anger and not helping themselves.
Bargaining. Grudgingly admitting that ‘blockchain’ the technology might be useful but that doesn’t mean Bitcoin will be. Arguing that Bitcoin is the MySpace of digital currencies and when the Facebook is created, you will buy that. Deciding that if Bitcoin goes back below $1,000 you will buy - just in case.
Recommended by Forbes
Depression. I can’t believe I missed Bitcoin. Then I missed Litecoin. Then I missed Etherium. Then I missed Ripple. UGH!!!! How much ripple does everyone have? Am I the only person who doesn’t own crypto? How could I have missed this!! Why did I listen to so and so - they clearly were too old for this. I should have listened to those other guys. I can’t believe I missed the opportunity of a lifetime.
Acceptance. It really isn’t too late. If you think about it, there are only futures on Bitcoin. ETFs haven’t launched. I know Joe - the old fool - doesn’t even have a Coinbase account and still thinks a wallet is made of leather! Yeah, I might have missed some of this, but there is a lot more opportunity to come. I might have missed the first wave or second wave, but it was really risky back then. Now, it seems so obvious in hindsight and it really isn’t that late.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/petertchir/2018/01/07/the-five-stages-of-bitcoin-grief/#2d30952f7ef4
Bitcoin’s Brutal Week Is Even Worse in South Korea
By Kyungji Cho
February 1, 2018, 6:36 PM PST
So-called kimchi premium disappears amid government clampdown
‘The bubble in cryptocurrencies has burst,’ analyst says
Bitcoin’s brutal start to the year is proving especially painful in South Korea.
While prices for the cryptocurrency are falling on major exchanges around the world, nowhere have the declines been faster than in Asia’s fourth-largest economy. The losses have erased a 51 percent premium for Bitcoin on Korean venues, sending prices back in line with those on international markets for the first time in seven weeks on Friday.
The so-called kimchi premium had been so persistent — and so unusual for a large country — that traders named it after Korea’s staple side dish. While its disappearance is partly explained by selling pressure from arbitragers, it also reflects a dramatic reversal of investor sentiment in one of the world’s most frenzied markets for cryptocurrencies.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-02/bitcoin-s-huge-arbitrage-play-just-vanished-as-korea-bubble-pops
Did BitConnect damage your HODLings?
BitConnect hit with class action lawsuit from six victims who lost over $770,000
by Mix — 7 days ago in hardfork
Judgement day has come for BitConnect: The Southern District of Florida handed the shifty Bitcoin investment lending platform its first class action lawsuit yesterday, alleging the company swindled the plaintiffs for a sum exceeding $770,000.
The case, brought by six former investors, names several BitConnect branches registered in the UK. More interestingly though, it also goes after local promoters who blatantly hyped the investment scheme on YouTube and other social media channels.
Among others, the lawsuit lists BitConnect affiliate marketer Glenn Arcaro, who holds a director position in the company according to the British Companies House registrar. It also names Trevon Brown (better known as Trevon James around the web), Ryan Hildreth, Craig Grant, CryptoNick (filed as John Doe) and several other unnamed promoters.
The document bizarrely opens with a reference to the song Welcome to Wonderland from the Broadway play Wonderland.
“Sure enough the crypto-Wonderland created by BitConnect was too good to be real,” the document reads. “As the business’ closure in January 2018 revealed a Ponzi scheme, numerous securities laws violations, and thousands upon thousands of investors who lost [more than] 90 percent of their holdings.”
https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/01/25/bitconnect-lawsuit-florida/
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin, titcoin, ponzicoin: jokes and scams fuel a cryptocurrency gold rush
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/feb/02/bitcoin-bananacoin-prodeum-cryptocurrencies
As questionable currencies flourish alongside legitimate ones, investors are advised to think twice before jumping on the latest craze
Olivia Solon in San Francisco
Fri 2 Feb 2018 03.00 EST
Last modified on Fri 2 Feb 2018 03.01 EST
A gold bitcoin medal in Japan.
Early last month, the San Francisco-based software developer Rishab Hegde launched a cryptocurrency he called ponzicoin. Its website described “the world’s first legitimate Ponzi scheme” and encouraged people to buy and then “shill this coin heavily to your family and friends like a fucking sociopath”.
The FAQs stated that ponzicoin was a joke and a scam with “Equifax-grade security”. But none of that stopped people from investing to the point where Hegde closed the cryptocurrency down, saying the joke had “gotten crazy out of hand”.
Ponzicoin is the perfect emblem of the crypto gold rush. As bitcoin and other more established currencies have soared in value over the last year, there’s been a flood of interest from investors and speculators hoping to become the next crypto millionaires. That surge of interest has been matched by an explosion of alternative cryptocurrencies, known as altcoins, ranging from legitimate ways to invest in companies to outright scams.
The names of the coins highlight the market’s absurdity: jesuscoin, bananacoin, putincoin, trumpcoin, titcoin and potcoin. With little regulation, huge financial incentives and no accountability, it can be very difficult for buyers to sort the wheat from the chaff.
So how did we get here?
it can be very difficult for buyers to sort the wheat from the chaff
The actual presence of wheat is still just a rumor.
Opinion: Bitcoin is the mother of all bubbles, Roubini says
Published: Jan 29, 2018 10:11 a.m. ET
…
Cryptocurrencies and blockchain aren’t going to change the world
Blockchain’s boosters would argue that its early days resemble the early days of the internet, before it had commercial applications. But that comparison is simply false. Whereas the internet quickly gave rise to email, the World Wide Web, and millions of viable commercial ventures used by billions of people, cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin do not even fulfill their own stated purpose.
As a currency, bitcoin should be a serviceable unit of account, means of payments, and a stable store of value. It is none of those things. No one prices anything in bitcoin. Few retailers accept it. And it is a poor store of value, because its price (BTCUSD, -8.01%) can fluctuate by 20% to 30% in a single day.
Worse, cryptocurrencies in general are based on a false premise.
As is typical of a financial bubble, investors are buying cryptocurrencies not to use in transactions, but because they expect them to increase in value. Indeed, if someone actually wanted to use bitcoin, they would have a hard time doing so. It is so energy-intensive (and thus environmentally toxic) to produce, and carries such high transaction costs, that even bitcoin conferences do not accept it as a valid form of payment.
Clearly, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies represent the mother of all bubbles, which explains why every human being I met between Thanksgiving and Christmas of 2017 asked me if they should buy them. Scammers, swindlers, charlatans, and carnival barkers (all conflicted insiders) have tapped into clueless retail investors’ FOMO (“fear of missing out”), and taken them for a ride.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-and-blockchains-broken-promises-2018-01-26
BITCOIN NEWS: Deutsche Bank warns bitcoin holds real risk of TOTAL LOSS
BANKING giant Deutsche Bank is warning its clients against investing in cryptocurrencies due to high volatility and the possibility of price manipulation or data theft.
By Rebecca Pinnington
PUBLISHED: 12:19, Mon, Jan 29, 2018 | UPDATED: 13:06, Mon, Jan 29, 2018
Deutsche Bank ‘worry’ about the risk of Bitcoin
Markus Mueller, global head of investments at Deutsche Bank, said his company could not recommend investing in bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, as it was likely to result in significant losses.
He told Bloomberg Markets: “We do not recommend it. It’s only for investors who invest speculatively. There is a realistic risk of total loss.”
Mr Mueller is among scores of banking giants who have lined up to shoot down the idea that cryptocurrencies could be viable long-term investments.
Bank of Spain governor Luis Maria Linde said cryptocurrencies carry huge risks, while Austria’s Financial Planners Association compared bitcoin with a “casino visit”.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/911377/bitcoin-cryptocurrency-markets-investment-returns-volatile-Deutsche-Bank
I see BizBuySell, Craigslist, etc. loaded with failed/failing businesses looking to unload them onto a sucker for an inflated price if they own the real estate “LOTS OF POTENTIAL REVENUE!!!”, or liquidating their equipment/inventory to get the eff out of dodge.
“Failing businesses”
Add crApple, scAmazon and freakbook to the list of profitless companies.
“…As of this writing, Bitcoin is languishing around $9,000 and the proximate cause for Thursday’s malaise appears to be comments from India’s finance minister Arun Jaitley, who said this about cryptocurrencies during a budget speech:
“…The government does not consider cryptocurrencies legal tender or coin and will take all measures to eliminate use of these cryptoassets in financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payment system….”
That’s right. India is going to “eliminate” the use of these (non)assets because they are “not legal tender”. This is another one of those times when I get to remind you that your opinion on this simply doesn’t matter, because whether you agree with Jaitley or not, by virtue of the fact that he basically is government, he has the power to move the market simply by declaring it bullshit. All you can do is sit helplessly by as Bitcoin declines even further from its December highs and extends its losses from January…”
https://dealbreaker.com/2018/02/weve-reached-the-irony-is-dead-phase-of-the-crypto-crash/
Asia Stocks Slide; Rising Yields Spur BOJ to Act: Markets Wrap
By Cormac Mullen
Updated on February 1, 2018, 8:48 PM EST
Bloomberg
Asian shares dipped, with technology stocks leading declines after some disappointment with U.S. corporate earnings. Rising pressure on bond yields round the world stirred the Bank of Japan into action to keep rates from getting out of whack with policy targets.
Even Japan hasn’t been immune to the sell-off in global bonds that’s sent 10-year Treasury yields to the highest in four years. After 10-year Japanese government bond yields threatened to breach 0.1 percent — versus a policy target of around zero — the BOJ announced it’s prepared to buy an unlimited amount of five-to-10 year notes at a fixed rate. Japanese yields retreated, and the yen briefly dropped.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-01/asia-stocks-to-slide-as-tech-stumbles-bonds-drop-markets-wrap
I opined many years ago that the current QE-style policies would continue until they had to stop. “Had to” meaning until the policies would present a threat to their own wealth and power. Japan seems to want to exit its monetization of government debt, but it presents a challenge.
They keep saying they’ll appropriate any amount of social wealth via money printing to buy bonds and keep yields low. But eventually either the people will rebel or someone might call their bluff. Or both. It’ll be interesting to see if there is a limit.
Japan’s GDP growth chart (how much value is it adding each year to its economy): https://www.google.com/search?q=japan+gdp+growth+chart
Japan’s GDP: https://www.google.com/search?q=what+is+japan%27s+gdp
How much can the BOJ keep skimming? They seem to be redistributing it in a manner which doesn’t upset the Japanese people particularly. So far anyway. American and Europe’s central banks seem to be focused on feeding the financial sector whereas Japan’s central bank seems to be focused on feeding the government.
BitCrime Stories
International Business Times UK
Crime
Deacon ‘addicted to Ashley Madison killed wife and faked suicide after emailing hitman on Dark Web’
Stephen Allwine is accused of killing his wife after failing to hire a hitman on the Dark Web.
By William Watkinson
January 25, 2018 20:28 GMT
A church elder and deacon who had extramarital affairs with women he met on a dating website killed his wife and faked her suicide after emailing a hitman on the Dark Web, a court heard.
Devout Christian Stephen Allwine, who worships at the United Church of God, in Minnesota, is accused of shooting dead his wife and staging a crime scene so he could date more women.
The 44-year-old was allegedly a member of the notorious cheaters’ website Ashley Madison and had at least three extramarital affairs before he hatched a plan to kill his wife.
Allwine is charged with the first-degree premeditated murder of his wife Amy, 44, in November 2016, which carries a mandatory life sentence.
The court heard that because of his position in the church divorce would have been unfathomable and because he wanted to date other women, he decided to kill Amy, a mother-of-one.
Washington County prosecutor Jamie Kreuser told the court that Stephen, an IT specialist, went onto the Dark Web under the pseudonym “dogdaygod” and tried to hire a hitman.
Using the Dark Web’s Besa Mafia site Stephen, from Cottage Grove, paid $6,000 in bitcoin for the hit on his wife, which was never carried out, the court was told.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/deacon-addicted-ashley-madison-killed-wife-faked-suicide-after-emailing-hitman-dark-web-1656725
Earlier in the week I thought a 3% yield on the 10-year Treasury bond by tomorrow’s close was impossible. Now I am not so sure.
The Financial Times
US Treasury Bonds
US bond market sell-off deepens
10-year Treasury yield rises to fresh four-year high at just under 2.8%
Robin Wigglesworth, Eric Platt and Joe Rennison in New York 5 hours ago
The US government bond sell-off deepened on Thursday afternoon, lifting the 10-year Treasury yield to a fresh four-year high and weighing further on stock markets.
Bond markets have come under rising pressure this year as rising optimism over the strength of the global economy has fuelled expectations that inflationary pressures are building.
This comes at a time when central banks are already unwinding some of the post-crisis monetary stimulus, and the US deficit is expected to balloon due to the recent tax cut.
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily from 2.4 per cent at the start of 2018, and on Thursday rose another 8 basis points — the biggest jump in more than a year — to 2.79 per cent. The rise in the yield to the highest since April 2014 stoked concerns that a three-decade bull run for bonds may be over.
“So far, the move has been gradual and controlled by careful central bank talk. But more monetary policy normalisation lies ahead, and fiscal stimulus in the US and Europe may add to late-cycle reflationary forces, which so far have been tenuous,” Alberto Gallo, head of macro strategies at Algebris, a UK-based hedge fund, said note to clients on Thursday.
…
Strongly correlated drops in the U.S. dollar, stocks and bonds sound the death knell for Wall Street’s highly-leveraged bulls.
Financial Times
Global Market Overview Markets
Wall Street volatile as bonds and dollar sell off
Euro back above $1.25 while 30-year Treasury yield tops 3 per cent
Dave Shellock 7 hours ago
Thursday 21.00 GMT
What you need to know
- S&P 500 swings from gains to losses as bond sell-off continues
- Dollar index soft in spite of Fed’s hawkish tone
- Euro breaks above $1.25
- Xetra Dax slides 1.4 per cent, breaks key support level
- US 30-year Treasury yield above 3 per cent
US stocks started the month on an uncertain note as participants awaited a batch of big-name tech earnings later in the day and watched bond yields rise further in the wake of the latest policy statement from the Federal Reserve.
Across the Atlantic, German equities were in the spotlight as the Xetra Dax broke below a key technical support level, leaving it nursing its biggest one-day fall since November.
The drop for the Dax came as the euro moved back to within sight of a recent three-year high against the dollar of $1.2536, despite a growing view that the Fed could raise interest rates more aggressively this year than had been expected.
…
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Why is the US stock market so high – and is it justified?
Robert Shiller
It’s not the Trump effect or tax cuts. Americans seem to have a strong desire to own capital
Tue 23 Jan 2018 06.24 EST
First published on Tue 23 Jan 2018 05.58 EST
Specialist Michael Pistillo wears a ‘Dow 26,000’ hat as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
The level of stock markets differs widely across countries. And right now, the United States is leading the world. What everyone wants to know is why – and whether its stock market’s current level is justified.
We can get a simple intuitive measure of the differences between countries by looking at price-earnings ratios. I have long advocated the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio that John Campbell (now at Harvard University) and I developed 30 years ago.
Essentially the same sort of thing happens with US inflation and the bond market. One might think that long-term interest rates tend to be high when there is evidence that there will be higher inflation over the life of the bond, to compensate investors for the expected decline in the dollar’s purchasing power. Using data since 1913, when the consumer price index computed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics starts, we find that the there is almost no correlation between long-term interest rates and 10-year inflation rates over succeeding decades. While positive, the correlation between one decade’s total inflation and the next decade’s total inflation is only 2%.
…
More news today to confirm the bond vigilantes’ worst fears, and continue to drive the simultaneous declines in the stock and bond bubbles:
10-year Treasury yield hits a four-year high after solid wage growth data
By Sunny Oh
Published: Feb 2, 2018 8:45 a.m. ET
Treasury yields rose at the start of the U.S. trading session, extending its gains to set a 4-year high. The 10-year note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +1.81% climbed 6.6 basis points to 2.837%, the highest since Jan. 2014. The 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, +1.39% rose 5.9 basis points to 3.065%, while the 2-year note yield TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.78% was up 2.5 basis points to 2.186%. Bonds have come under pressure on concerns that stronger wage gains could spur inflationary pressures, eroding the value of debt. Bond prices fall when yields rise. Hourly wages rose 0.3% in January to raise the 12-month increase to 2.9% from 2.6%, the fastest pace since June 2009.
…
L.A.’s homelessness surged 75% in six years. Here’s why the crisis has been decades in the making
Gale Holland
L.A.Times
1 Feb, 2018
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-homeless-how-we-got-here-20180201-story.html
“The growth of a homeless day camp at the halls of civic power speaks to the breadth of Los Angeles’ burgeoning homelessness problem.”
“The number of those living in the streets and shelters of the city of L.A. and most of the county surged 75% — to roughly 55,000 from about 32,000 — in the last six years. (Including Glendale, Pasadena and Long Beach, which conduct their own homeless counts, the total is nearly 58,000.)”
“Three out of four homeless people — 41,000 — live in cars, campers, tents and lean-tos, by far the biggest single group of unsheltered people in any U.S. city. If you took out Los Angeles, national homelessness would have dropped last year for the first time since the recession.”
“People in Koreatown step outside their fancy condos to find tents, rotting food and human feces at their doorsteps. Buses and trains have become de facto shelters, and thousands of people sleep in fear and degradation.”
“L.A.’s homelessness surged 75% in six years. Here’s why the crisis has been decades in the making”
Sorry, but this wasn’t “decades in the making,” it’s entirely due to Obama’s “no banker left behind” policies where he sold the entire country down the river in the interests of Jamie Dimon and the entire cabal. F***k Obama, this is on him.
First 4 minutes of this was interesting.
What Really Happened: Mike Rivero Thursday 2/1/18: Today’s News Talk Show
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1CtXVx2Q-tpb9pr24SQbwA
Are you still HODLing on to your Bitcoin HODLings for dear life?
Over a hundred billion dollars of cryptocurrency value has been subtracted globally over the past twenty-four hours.
Nice time to buy the dip. 😁
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/02/bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-price-falls-over-100-billion-wiped-off-global-cryptocurrency-market.html
Over a hundred billion dollars of cryptocurrency value has been subtracted globally over the past twenty-four hours.
yet the total amount of cash in the world hasn’t decreased at all.
“crypto rout”
“There Has Been A Herd Mentality”
Mr. Banker herds the DebtDonkeys in one side and waits. Then the DebtDonkeys stampede out the other side.
Beaumont, TX Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/beaumont-tx/market-trends/
the atlanta fed is predicting 5% gdp growth. trump is amazing.
And Wall Street is cheering in response.
Oh wait…
That was some poster.
Remembering Farrah Fawcett on the 71st anniversary of her birth
By Craig Hlavaty Updated 10:03 am, Thursday, February 1, 2018
https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=cache:undefined:http://www.chron.com/entertainment/celebrities/article/Remembering-Farrah-Fawcett-on-71st-birthday-10901137.php