February 8, 2018

Uncertainty, Heavy Discounting In An Unforgiving Market

A report from My Twin Tiers in Pennsylvania. “A new report says Pennsylvania has some of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation. Last year, nearly 31,000 properties across the Commonwealth were foreclosed, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. Some housing agencies say part of the problem is due to predatory lending and loan scams. ‘Pennsylvania remains high, in particular, compared to other states, because of predatory lending,’ said Sam Milkes, executive director of the Pennsylvania Legal Aid Network. He says the symptoms of the housing crisis of the mid-2000’s never really went away. ‘Maybe they’re not regarding it as the same crisis anymore, but people are still losing their homes,’ said Milkes.”

The Winston-Salem Journal in North Carolina. “The Winston-Salem area ended 2017 with a slight uptick in the number of residential households considered as seriously underwater, according to a fourth-quarter report. There also was a slight dip in the number of households listed as equity rich, Attom Data Solutions said in a report timed for release today. Attom defines seriously underwater as owing at least 25 percent more on a mortgage than the property is worth.”

“The five-county region of Davidson, Davie, Forsyth, Stokes and Yadkin counties had 14,614 households listed as seriously underwater, up from 13,910 in the third quarter. The Greensboro-High Point MSA of Guilford, Randolph and Rockingham counties had 12,503 housing units, or 10 percent, listed as seriously underwater. That’s up from 9.7 percent in the third quarter and 8.9 percent a year ago.”

“Attom said the Triad is in line with the North Carolina and national trends of a slight increase in seriously underwater households and a slight decrease in equity rich households. ‘The share of homeowners with at least 20 percent equity dropped 1.1 percentage points from a year ago, while the share of homeowners with between 10 percent equity and 10 percent negative equity increased 1.1 percentage points from a year ago,’ Attom said. ‘This indicates homeowners are increasingly leveraging their equity to sell and move up into another home or by refinancing.’”

From Bizwest in Colorado. “A quick glance at average sales prices for Northern Colorado last year might make one wonder what’s up with Berthoud? After all, every local submarket in the region saw average sales prices increase. All except Berthoud, where average sales prices declined 3 percent. Most notably, total home sales in Berthoud soared from 218 in 2016 to 451 last year — a year-over-year growth rate of 107 percent. With all that demand, it seems counterintuitive that average prices would slip from $412,225 to $400,751.”

“The reason? Berthoud is a hot spot for new home construction. And because much of that new construction featured affordable options last year, average prices came down.”

From Inman News on California. “For the past several years, real estate prices in San Francisco have risen dramatically. Is there a chance that this could represent a localized real estate bubble in San Francisco? Back in 2007, right before the financial crisis, the median home sales price in San Francisco was about $900,000, with a median condo price of just under $800,000. Compare that to the national median home price, which was just over $200,000. That’s a gap of roughly $700,000.”

“Then, from 2012, the prices in San Francisco began to explode, growing consistently and significantly, year over year. For 2017, the median home sales price was a whopping $1,420,000, with a median condo price of $1,150,000. Compare that to the national median home sale price, which was $248,000 in 2017. That’s a gap of $1,172,000, meaning the gap is more than 50 percent bigger than it was pre-economic crisis.”

“There are some troubling signs, however. For starters, pending home sales in California (overall) fell for a few months in a row at the end of last year, furthering the trend of dropping pending home sales over the past few years. Real estate agents began noticing a trend of fewer floor calls, listing appointments and client presentations. The drop hasn’t affected real estate prices much so far but could be a sign of reversing momentum in the near future.”

“The problem is compounded by the fact that the Bay Area has been hemorrhaging jobs in the past few months, with September of 2017 resulting in the worst month for employment since February 2010.”

The Sangre de Cristo Chronicle in New Mexico. “Angel Fire, New Mexico, which also includes Black Lake, wrapped up the year with an overall 15 percent increase in the number of homes sold over 2016. While 15 percent may seem unimpressive when compared to the massive 48 percent spike we saw in 2016, any increase following 2016 is something to celebrate. This continual increase in buying activity over the last 2 years is moving Angel Fire from a buyers’ market to a balanced market.”

“The $500,000 to $1,000,000 home sales were down 35 percent over 2016, while over $1,000,000 home sales were up 50 percent. We also saw a slight increase in the number of homes over $500,000 entering the market. With inventory up and sales down, homes above $500,000 are currently sitting around a 3.7 year supply. The condo market saw an overall increase in units sold of 20 percent over 2016, with a 26 percent decline in sales under $90,000 and a 58 percent increase over $90,000. With the increase in inventory, condos are at a 14.6 month supply in inventory which is a Buyers’ market. History shows that this over supply will put downward pressure on condo prices this year.”

From the Real Deal on New York. “Few of the city’s residential brokerage were sorry to see 2017 close out. Why would they be? Looking back, the year was marked by buyer uncertainty, heavy discounting and unapologetic recruiting as top firms sought to maintain revenue in an unforgiving market. The stats in 2017 saw an artificial boost because many of the deals struck during 2015’s condo boom finally closed. In reality, it was a tough year for Manhattan’s residential brokerages as they grappled with a glut of expensive new developments and luxury resales lingered on the market.”

“‘Anyone who tells you it was great is lying,’ said Shaun Osher, the CEO of boutique brokerage CORE, adding that last year’s absorption was the slowest in two years. ‘It was one of the more miserable years to be a real estate agent,’ said Osher.”

“For nearly all firms, the key to closing deals in 2017 was getting sellers to reduce prices. More than 45 percent of all co-ops and condos in Manhattan sold for less than their asking price last year, according to data from appraisal firm Miller Samuel. CORE’s Osher said that for most sellers in 2017, the reality of the market correction had still not seeped in, leading to fewer trades and longer marketing time.”

“‘We definitely adjusted pricing, and that’s how we sold a lot of our inventory,’ he said, noting that agents often had to be ‘the voice of reason’ inside sellers’ heads.”

From CBS 12 in Florida. “Boynton Beach police are investigating a domestic-related shooting at a house on Aspen Leaf Drive. Officers were called to the scene at 7:11 p.m. according to police. A man and his wife suffered gunshot wounds and were taken to a local hospital. A neighbor said she was shocked to see police officers in the middle of her quiet neighborhood. ‘It’s just a white couple, they’re pretty quiet. They’ve been trying to sell their house for a long time. I don’t know if they’ve been under stress, or what’s been going on,’ Heidie Alvarado said.”

“The home listed on Zillow shows the price was just reduced to $435,000. According to the property appraiser’s office, the home, purchased in 2014, is owned by Eric and Lisa Barreca. Detectives are working to determine what led to both people getting shot. According to court records, homeowner Lisa Barreca is facing charges of attempted murder with a firearm.”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-08 09:48:01

‘It’s just a white couple, they’re pretty quiet. They’ve been trying to sell their house for a long time. I don’t know if they’ve been under stress, or what’s been going on,’ Heidie Alvarado said.’

Heidie is not very PC. But if they bought it in 2014, how could they have been trying to sell for a long time?

Comment by taxpayer
2018-02-08 09:51:13

just whitey”

so, recession 2018 or 2019?

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-02-08 11:05:45

Now. You’ll be reading about “revised indicators” soon.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-08 14:31:20

Right on, Al. The big correction is well underway.

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Comment by Sean
2018-02-08 10:00:01

His last words: “But you said Suzanne researched this!”

Comment by Justme
2018-02-08 15:03:32

Suzanne has been replaced by a younger and more glamorous model, namely Elizabeth Banks. I think this ad has potential to become another classic, but as usual, not in the way that realtor.com intended!!


Comment by Big V
2018-02-08 10:02:34

I believe the article identifies the white couple as one Mr. and Mrs. Barreca. I wonder what white nation their ancestors hail from. Maybe Atlantis. Well anyway, it’s a place where no one ever learns to aim properly I guess.

Comment by oxide
2018-02-08 11:52:58

Spain, possibly Italy.

Comment by messagetorudy
2018-02-08 12:48:23

More like low IQ mestizo ancestry - the kind that love their firewater.

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Comment by Overbanked
2018-02-08 20:14:26

LOL hairspray coladas

Comment by Big V
2018-02-08 13:20:20

I don’t think most ppl in the United States consider Spain and Italy to be “white”, but whatevs.

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Comment by Overbanked
2018-02-08 20:27:03

From time to time I find myself in conversations where Mexicans from Cuba and Mexicans from Argentina are telling me they’re better than the Mexicans from Mexico because “they’re more European” with more Spanish and/or Italian ancestry. And I’ve always thought the same thing - most Mediterranean peoples are pretty swarthy, IMO a lot less white than the Northern Europeans.

Cue Dennis Hopper’s soliloquy about Sicilians in “True Romance.”

Comment by Vincent
2018-02-08 20:43:50

That’s probably wrong about most people. Though Chris Matthews has been unfairly criticized recently.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-08 20:56:50

The horror. Worthy of a good foot stamping.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-08 23:30:02

From time to time I find myself in conversations where Mexicans from Cuba and Mexicans from Argentina are telling me they’re better than the Mexicans from Mexico because “they’re more European” with more Spanish and/or Italian ancestry.

Latin Americans are some of the most racist people you’ll meet. And while most are mestizo, they will insist they’re European.

Just watch the commercials or a soap opera on Univision or Telemundo. You won’t see a single mestizo in them.

Comment by jeff
2018-02-08 10:53:18

‘It’s just a white couple, they’re pretty quiet”


Wife shoots husband in argument over homeowners association, police say

Tonya Alanez
Contact Reporter
Sun Sentinel

A Boynton Beach woman shot her husband in the head, both arms, right leg and back during an argument Monday night, police said.

What prompted the argument was not clear. Police said only that the argument involved complaints about a homeowners association. A report included no details.

The husband, whom police did not identify, called 911. Police found that Barreca also had been shot, the report said. She had a gunshot wound in her right thigh, but the injury was not life threatening, police said.

The shot in the husband’s back indicated he was fleeing rather than attacking, police said

Barreca “showed no signs of emotion or remorse” and did not ask about her husband’s condition, the report said.

“She just wants to get home to her dog,” police said.


Comment by whirlyite
2018-02-08 11:37:31

Dayamn, chica!

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-02-08 12:57:56

It’s Florida, so on Sunday they’ll run a story on the dog in the Miami Herald’s Neighbor’s section.

Comment by BottomFisher
2018-02-08 20:02:23

Just seems like ‘forever’ when you buy in the wrong hood.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-02-08 09:48:14

Hillsboro, OR Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY On Plunging Houisng Demand


Comment by 2banana
2018-02-08 09:50:25

Kinda reminds of the Japanese selling well past the top for massive losses…

We are over the tipping point.


The Firesale Begins: China’s HNA Starts Liquidating Billions In US Real Estate
ZeroHedge - 02/08/2018

Yesterday we explained that one of the reasons why Deutsche Bank stock had tumbled to the lowest level since 2016, is because its top shareholder, China’s largest and most distressed conglomerate, HNA Group, had reportedly defaulted on a wealth management product sold on Phoenix Finance according to the local press reports. While HNA’s critical liquidity troubles have been duly noted here and have been widely known, the fact that the company was on the verge (or beyond) of default, and would be forced to liquidate its assets imminently, is what sparked the selling cascade in Deutsche Bank shares, as investors scrambled to frontrun the selling of the German lender which is one of HNA’s biggest investments.

Now, one day later, we find that while Deutsche Bank may be spared for now - if not for long - billions in US real estate will not be, and in a scene right out of the Wall Street movie Margin Call, HNA has decided to be if not smartest, nor cheat, it will be the first, and has begun its firesale of US properties.

According to Bloomberg, HNA is marketing commercial properties in New York, Chicago, San Francisco and Minneapolis valued at a total of $4 billion as the indebted Chinese conglomerate seeks to stave off a liquidity crunch. The marketing document lists six office properties that are 94.1% leased, and one New York hotel, the 165-room Cassa, with a total value of $4 billion.

Finally, the far bigger question is whether the launch of HNA’s firesale will present a tipping point in the US commercial (or residential) real estate market. After all, when what until recently was one of the biggest marginal buyers becomes a seller, it’s usually time to get out and wait for the bottom.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-08 12:48:42

Just as in the movie Margin Call, it’s already happened.

Comment by 2banana
2018-02-08 09:52:26

God Bless DJT

And with the democrat base eroding so quickly - they will push hard for the dreamers (and their votes).


Food Stamp Enrollment Drops by Four Million in One Month
Breitbart | 02/07/2018 | KATHERINE RODRIGUEZ

Four million people dropped off the food stamp rolls in one month, according to the latest numbers on food stamp enrollment from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The latest USDA data show that the number of participants in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the government program that administers food stamps, dropped from 45,666,795 in October 2017 to 41,658,868 in November 2017 — a staggering decrease of 4,007,927 over one month.

Comment by Jingle Male
2018-02-08 16:31:15

I wonder if they will downsize the SNAP department staff by 10%??

Comment by rms
2018-02-08 16:59:11

“Food Stamp Enrollment Drops by Four Million in One Month”

No fraud going on here.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-09 08:40:54

Enrollment in the program sharply increased by 3.5 million during the first month of fiscal year (FY) 2018 (October 2017) mostly due to heavy increases in temporary SNAP enrollment in hurricane-affected states such as Florida and Texas.

Comment by 2banana
2018-02-08 09:59:04

The debt train is coming to an end. Both public and private.

The eight years of debt insanity under obama is going to cause quite a hangover.

Every bubble is going to deflate.


The State of the American Debt Slaves
Wolf Richter • Feb 8, 2018

Total consumer credit rose 5.4% in the fourth quarter, year over year, to a record $3.84 trillion not seasonally adjusted, according to the Federal Reserve. This includes credit-card debt, auto loans, and student loans, but not mortgage-related debt. December had been somewhat of a disappointment for those that want consumers to drown in debt, but the prior months, starting in Q4 2016, had seen blistering surges of consumer debt.

Think what you will of the election – consumers celebrated it or bemoaned it the American way: by piling on debt.

The problem with debt is that it doesn’t just go away on its own. If one side cannot pay, the other side takes a loss on their asset. Some auto loans and credit card debts remain on the balance sheet of lenders, while others have been securitized and are spread around among investors. But most student loans are guaranteed by the taxpayer or directly funded by the government.

Over the years, student loans have fattened entire industries: Investors in private colleges, the student housing industry (an asset class within commercial real estate), Apple and other companies supplying students with whatever it takes, the textbook industry…. They’re all feeding at the big trough held up by young people and guaranteed by the taxpayer. Food for thought, so to speak.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-08 12:36:08

If the hangover is especially bad, we might see fence sitters vote Dem again. If too many jobs go “poof” we might be treated to a Warren or even a Winfrey administration.

Comment by Big V
2018-02-08 09:59:31

The US National Health Service issued a new Fat Finger report Thursday morning. According to the service, suspected stock brokers with fat fingers have been seen roaming the streets, buying and selling garbage in massive quantities. Scientists believe that this side-effect of Fat Finger syndrome may be contagious. Physical proximity may not be necessary to spread the disease, as any contact through online brokerage accounts may enable infection.

If you see any stock brokers with fat fingers, then dial 911 immediately. DO NOT ATTEMPT to reason with the broker. Brokers may draw you into their parallel universe, and you may not be able to escape.

As always, stay safe. Run, hide, and tell!

Comment by Jingle Male
2018-02-08 16:33:16


Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-08 16:53:59

These Fat Finger folk are nasty business. Sure it’s not OK to shoot first and ask questions later? They’d have to have Rabies or something to get this far from their nest.

Comment by Puggs
2018-02-08 10:08:20

>>>Stox, buying opportunities ahead<<<

It may be a couple years yet, but it’s comin’.

Adjust your portfolio accordingly.

Comment by 2banana
2018-02-08 10:10:56

Or maybe, Pennsylvania never passed the “go real slow foreclosure” laws that other states did.

And that have allowed FB to live in their “house” without paying a mortgage for 5+ years.

Clearing foreclosures quickly it a good thing. It is good for the neighbors, for the lenders, for the local housing market and for the township. And it is good for other buyers without more houses at reasonable prices.


“Pennsylvania remains high, in particular, compared to other states, because of predatory lending,” said Sam Milkes, executive director of the Pennsylvania Legal Aid Network.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-08 11:25:49

Local foreclosure laws stopped mattering once the accounting laws were suspended for big banks. There are tens of millions of houses across the country, in every state and county, that are either occupied by deadbeats, or sitting empty and vacant, neither for sale nor for rent.

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-08 20:58:33

That would help explain the dearth of inventory, as vacant houses or houses occupied by deadbeats tend to not be for sale.

Comment by 2banana
2018-02-08 10:17:39

It is amazing that illegals think:

1. It is their right to be in America illegally and that anyone who wants to enforce existing immigration law is the bad person

2. They all want to buy houses in America


‘It’s so hard right now’: For a mother who self-deported to Mexico, days of feeling lost
The Los Angeles Times | February 7, 2018 | by Brittny Mejia

Maria Barrancas stood in the backyard of her mother-in-law’s home, alone but for a pig and some hens. It had been about a week since she packed up her life in Gardena and left for Mexico with her partner and their two children.

There, in the small, dusty Sinaloa town of El Aguaje, the isolation hit her. Her three older children were still in California. She was in a country she hardly remembered, having left for the U.S. 32 years ago at age 15.

Back in their two-bedroom apartment in Gardena, Barrancas and Ricardo Madrigal had dreamed of one day owning a home nearby. They made money buying and selling used cars. Every other day, Barrancas would see her then-21-year-old daughter, Cynthia, and granddaughter Hailee, who lived five minutes away.

But all that felt stable came unmoored when Donald Trump was elected president. Barrancas watched as Trump said he did not want people like her and Madrigal in a country he boasted he’d make great again, in part, by getting rid of them.

The couple were in the country illegally. Jobs already felt hard to come by, and the anti-immigrant climate added to their stress.

They decided to leave in August, heading for a border they had long avoided — a process some refer to as “self-deporting.”

It wasn’t that she loved Mexico — in fact, she hated what she’d seen so far. She hated the overgrown weeds in front of the town homes, with no homeowner’s association to regulate appearances; she hated how many cars she saw broken down, tires popped off by poor road conditions; she hated that sometimes she couldn’t understand words in Spanish; and she especially hated the burden she’d left on Cynthia’s shoulders to keep track of her 31- and 28-year-old brothers back in California.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-08 10:20:13

‘It wasn’t that she loved Mexico — in fact, she hated what she’d seen so far…’

Wow, Maria, sounds like a real sh*thole.

Comment by 2banana
2018-02-08 10:27:47

And yet they protest in America against American culture, fly MEXICAN flags and want America to become more like Mexico.

But they don’t want to go back to Mexico and when they do, they hate it.

All very illogical.

Except that they are part of the free sh*thole army and have powerful politicians who cater to them.

Comment by tj
2018-02-08 11:25:59

But they don’t want to go back to Mexico and when they do, they hate it.

the ‘ugly mexican’?

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-08 11:28:31

It’s similar to the phenomenon where people vote against their own economic interests, again, and again, and again. Read the comments on the Seattle times article about the massive property tax hike to see liberals squealing after voting for the very policies they deride.


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Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-08 12:45:24

The comments on that article are priceless.

I was recently in Seattle for a few days. While driving around town, I found that many roadways seemed to run below steep hillsides. And I could often see the tents/tarps of people living on said hillsides.

What was most remarkable was the strip of garbage running down the hillside below most of these little encampments…

Then there’s this… I noticed MLKs silhoutte in King County logos that I saw (on buses, etc.). I kinda figured that the county was around before him. Here’s the story:

“On February 24, 1986, the King County Council passes Motion 6461 renaming King County to commemorate the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. (1929-1968), the civil rights leader, rather than William Rufus de Vane King (1786-1853), the vice-president-elect for whom the county was named in 1852.”

Comment by messagetorudy
2018-02-08 13:54:34

Yeah, those comments highlight the “its never enough” attitude of the left. Property taxes should NOT fluctuate so dramatically based on assessed “values” - governments everywhere need to go back to the drawing board as its hurting mobility and by extension the economy.

Plus we probably only need about 2/3 of the schools we have if we kick out the third worlders - and thats a whole lot less bouncy ball supervisors and administrators and their big $ pensions.

Comment by Karen
2018-02-08 22:05:00

Plus we probably only need about 2/3 of the schools we have

As far as I’m concerned we don’t need any government schools at all. Send everyone home, sell the buildings, give the taxpayers back their money, and let the parents be responsible for their own children’s education. They can get most of what they need online for free through Khan Academy. The younger ones just need someone to mind them and feed them. All the newly unemployed school personnel will work for cheap doing this if the moms won’t do it themselves.

Comment by Parker
2018-02-08 23:01:47

And then none of the moms (including the teachers who would work for pennies on the dollar) have sufficient income to feed or care for their online-educated kids. That’s a recipe for an even bigger disaster.

Comment by Lesser Fool
2018-02-09 00:48:13

You must have missed the part where the taxpayers got their money back.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-08 12:44:36

“Wow, Maria, sounds like a real sh*thole.”

Sinaloa is ground zero for the drug cartels. Even shoeshine boys are armed.

And if she came to the US when she was 15, she should be able to speak Mexican Spanish just fine.

I also don’t buy the “self deportation” story. Why leave if they haven’t caught you? There’s something else going on. Maybe her brothers are in gangs and she wanted to get away from them.

Comment by messagetorudy
2018-02-08 12:51:13

Nailed it - she needs to be around to post bail - or worse, hide the bodies.


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Comment by Lurker
2018-02-08 15:26:37

“Sinaloa is ground zero for the drug cartels.”

Uh, you’re obviously misinformed. According to the article, the number one problem in Sinaloa is a lack of HOA landscaping regulations.

“I also don’t buy the “self deportation” story.”

After 32 years in the US, maybe they thought saved enough money to live quite well in Mexico for less, like American retirees who move to developing countries for a standard of living above what they could afford here. And maybe they’re counting on remittances (in USD) from the daughter on top of that. Just conjecture.

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Comment by Big V
2018-02-08 10:25:34

Why would a 21-yo mother need to keep track of her two much older brothers in America? That’s freaking absurd.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-02-08 13:49:51

It’s a network for a “mule” and one of them is her uncle.

Comment by goedeck
2018-02-08 10:38:03

she hated what she’d seen so far. She hated the overgrown weeds in front of the town homes, with no homeowner’s association to regulate appearances; she hated how many cars she saw broken down, tires popped off by poor road conditions; she hated that sometimes she couldn’t understand words in Spanish

Are you in east LA?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-08 10:53:06

“Are you in east LA?”

Anywhere in in CA.

Comment by Drater
2018-02-08 18:57:03

“She hated the overgrown weeds in front of the town homes, with no homeowner’s association to regulate appearances; she hated how many cars she saw broken down, tires popped off by poor road conditions; she hated that sometimes she couldn’t understand words in Spanish”

-Sounds like most of Southern California….

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-08 10:25:28

‘That’s a gap of $1,172,000, meaning the gap is more than 50 percent bigger than it was pre-economic crisis.’

‘There are some troubling signs, however. For starters, pending home sales in California (overall) fell for a few months in a row at the end of last year, furthering the trend of dropping pending home sales over the past few years. Real estate agents began noticing a trend of fewer floor calls, listing appointments and client presentations’

‘The problem is compounded by the fact that the Bay Area has been hemorrhaging jobs in the past few months’

Golly, can you imagine how gobsmacked the local rubes are gonna be when they wake up in recession? What was it some broker out there said once? “If you are asking me to predict the bay aryan housing market, you are asking me to predict the stock market.”

Oh dear…

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-08 10:55:37

San Francisco, CA 94110 Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY On Plunging Housing Demand


Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-08 13:02:05

And over $1M for freakin’ air box condos ?!

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-08 10:32:24

Did you try to BTFD and instead CUAFN?

Comment by 2banana
2018-02-08 10:34:11

The dip is pretty good today - The DOW is -550 so far…

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-08 15:12:51

The talking heads are saying there is a “correction.”

But technically, doesn’t a 20%+ drop in the DOW off its recent highs qualify as a bear market?

Comment by Overbanked
2018-02-08 20:45:56

And everywhere the talking heads are saying this is normal, we haven’t have a correction “in a couple of years.” Yeah if nine freakin’ years is “a couple”…

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-08 22:44:28

Is it really true that the stock market “corrects by 30% every five years or so?”

It seems like we are quite overdue for a 30% correction in that case.
Maybe this is a good time to keep your powder dry, rather than try to catch yourself a falling knife.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-08 22:50:59

Panicked about a stock-market crash?
What you need to remember fits on one note card
By Ryan Vlastelica
Published: Feb 8, 2018 5:10 p.m. ET
‘Never make important decisions based on emotions’
Getty Images

The recent turbulence in the U.S. stock market no doubt has a lot of investors searching for a strategy to navigate the volatility and protect their capital. The good new: The best tactic most investors can take is easier than they may expect.

In fact, according to one adviser, the important things to keep in mind are so simple they can fit on a single note card. Such a card was tweeted Thursday by Ritholtz Wealth Management, which credited it to Anthony Isola, a financial adviser at the firm who tweets under the handle @ATeachMoment.

Several of the bullet points underline how this week’s heavy volatility — in contrast to the historically quiet markets seen over 2017 — is the norm for equities. “Daily dips of 2% or more occur about 5x a year,” the note reads, adding that markets average one 14% drop a year, and that there’s a drawdown of at least 30% every five years.

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-08 12:45:47

The Volatility Index is becoming quite volatile!

Is there an index for second-order volatility?

Wall Street’s fear index spikes after falling for two sessions
Published: Feb 8, 2018 2:18 p.m. ET
By Sue Chang
Markets reporter

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX, +7.10%) jumped on Thursday after falling for two straight sessions, highlighting the sense of uncertainty among investors struggling to put the stock market’s weakness into perspective. The so-called fear gauge climbed 8.7% to 30.13 after earlier spiking by double digits. The index has seen dramatic swings this week as stocks came under intense pressure on worries about mounting inflationary pressure on the back of a robust economy. The (S&P 500 SPX, -1.97%) fell 1.5% to 2,640, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.30% dropped 1.8% to 24,437 and the Nasdaq <COMP, -2.18%) slid 1.6% to 6,937.

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-08 21:01:15

CUAFN = Catch Yourself a Falling Knife (maybe CYFK works better?)

Comment by oxide
2018-02-08 10:32:39

I thought this was interesting:


“white supremacist groups in Charlottesville, Va. procured funding on financial technology apps like PayPal and Venmo. Such companies promptly banned known white supremacists from their platforms.
“Unfortunately, however, the actors that violated the terms and conditions of the aforementioned online payment systems have found an alternative in cryptocurrency,” Congressman Cleaver (D-MO) wrote to the organizations, which lobby on behalf of organizations that work with cryptocurrencies.

“In light of these facts, it is clear that the corporate cryptocurrency community should take the necessary steps to deter these troubling activities,” Cleaver wrote.”


Comment by jeff
2018-02-08 11:14:20

I thought George Soros paid the way for the “white supremacist groups”.

In other “news” from THE HILL

George W. Bush: Russia meddled in election
BY AVERY ANAPOL - 02/08/18 07:13 AM EST

Maxine Waters: Pelosi’s speech one of ‘most profound’ moments in history of Congress
BY JOHN BOWDEN - 02/07/18 09:22 PM EST

Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-08 12:50:50

The chances of Pelosi being responsible for a profound moment are smaller than my chances of winning a Powerball jackpot.

Comment by messagetorudy
2018-02-08 17:12:00

Funny, Georgi Schwarz is a card carrying member of the original and most virulent of the (((white supremacist))) groups. Has to hide behind a fake name though, like so many of them.

Probably 2/3 of the world uses cold hard cash and that aint changing anytime soon and govts everywhere want to maintain their control over everything so they’re not going to get out of the printing business anytime soon.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-02-08 12:05:47

The Southern Poverty Law Center is not a civil rights organization.

They are self-annointed gatekeepers of First Amendment free speech who exist to serve globalists.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-08 12:52:22

“Democratic congressmen are pushing to keep white supremests away from cryptocurrencies?

Bahahahahahahaha … they are probably doing these whitesupremest pukes a big favor.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-08 16:56:53

Protecting idiots from idiocy?

Comment by oxide
2018-02-08 14:49:24

I was looking at this article in a broader context. It’s already suspected that governments want to get rid of paper cash in order to track and tax transactions. Imagine if money went completely electronic. These baddies were already denied from PayPal and Venmo (who?). Now they want to shut them out of crypto. What if they denied you Visa, Mastercard, and debit card too?

Could you seriously shut someone down entirely by preventing them from spending any money at all? I guess that works for baddies, but what about law-abiding folks? What if I said I didn’t like a politician? Could the government punish my dissent by shutting off all my payment cards? Would I starve because I had no means to buy food? I guess at some point everyone would retreat into an underground barter market.

Comment by Big V
2018-02-08 15:35:49

Congress regulates the currency, and Congress is elected. I doubt taxpayers will agree to outlaw cash and actually pay for the tracking of electronic payments.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-08 17:12:30

Too funny, preventing them from spending any money.

I’ve got enough silver here and probably all the tooling to start a small mint that could help the local economy keep on if the government abdicates their duty completely.

Skyecoin, like Gold except it’s Silver.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-08 10:44:30

I just got this in an email:

Metrostudy has started releasing the results of their 2017 surveys of the housing markets in more than 40 DMAs across the country, and some of the results may be of interest to you for stories you are working on. Some of the findings include:

-Dallas remains the #1 housing market in the country, with more than 33,000 homes started in 2017, up 16.9% from 2016 levels. Still, builders are keeping the market affordable with a surge in starts between $200-$300k.

-Houston was the #2 market with 27,307 starts - up 5.8% YoY despite lingering effects of Hurricane Harvey. Interestingly, we are seeing increased demand for “Build On Your Own Lot” Homes which are being built on elevated slabs to reduce their exposure to future floods.

-In Las Vegas, annual new home starts are at their highest levels since 2008, and affordability is squeezed as only 21% of starts were priced under $300k - down from 42% in 2016.

-In Salt Lake City annual starts are up 17% YoY, and production in higher price points is exploding, up to 44% of total starts.

-Housing in the Raleigh-Durham area saw annual starts up 9.1% YoY - and we expect continued strength tied to job growth.

-Phoenix new home starts are up 10.3% over 2016 levels, and 4Q17 starts were the highest in a fourth quarter since 2006. Annual closings are up 15.9% YoY.

Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-08 12:52:55

“In Las Vegas, annual new home starts are at their highest levels since 2008″

Seems like we should be close to, if not at, the point when there’s nowhere to go but down.

Comment by taxpayer
2018-02-08 11:14:09

Oxide- feds
if the market tanks does your pension payout MCmonthly payment stay the same?

Comment by oxide
2018-02-08 11:44:17

My pension probably wouldn’t be affected. But Fed pensions are 1% * years service * high 3 (no spiking). At best the pension will be abut 25% of salary starting age 62. The rest of my retirement is SS and various types of 401K. Those do depend on the market. But retirement is a long way off so I can’t worry about it.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-08 12:23:38

The state and local government graft is on a much worse level than the federal.

Comment by Taxpayers
2018-02-08 14:40:38

Age 55 in VA
People are missing the effect of the next re tax increase
It’s coming ,Seattle 10%+

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-08 11:48:21

Housing Donks…. Housing.

Annandale, VA Housing Prices Tailspin 14% YOY As Housing Correction Envelopes Northern Virginia


Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-08 11:34:43


Dow CRATERS 600 points

Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-08 13:11:09

-634 at this instant…

Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-08 13:41:55

-782…time to call the PPT?! LOL

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-08 14:37:58

Major owie:

Dow 23,860.46 -1,032.89 -4.15%

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-08 21:03:44

Two thousand+ drops on the DOW in one week.

How many more of those could the DOW endure before it cratered to 0?

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-02-08 11:46:11

Englewood, CO Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Weak Demand Pushes Record High Inventory Higher


Comment by Apartment 401
2018-02-08 12:08:45

The junkies and methheads are spreading south into Englewood from Denver.

The bus stop by King Soopers on Broadway is a popular place to overdose now.

Comment by rj not in chicago anymore
2018-02-08 12:20:01

401 -
I have wondered what the after effects of legalizing pot would cause - many who favor the pot laws cite the increased tax revenue but what I do my best to explain to my buddies is that even though rec pot is legalized all it has done from what I have been reading is an increase in non-legal black market buys of pot to avoid the taxes and an increase in attending use of harder and harder drugs and the attending market supply therein.
Even Hickenloopy admitted a while back that he ‘regrets’ the fallout of his signing of the pot laws. Sure Hick, sure - All for the good of staying in power with not a whit of care of the fall out of what you signed in to law.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-08 12:43:13

“… even though rec pot is legalized all it has done from what I have been reading is an increase in non-legal black market buys of pot to avoid the taxes and an increase in attending use of harder and harder drugs and the attending market supply therein.”

Such a policy tends to lure druggies and drug dealers to leave whatever state they are currently living in and move their low-life selves to the drug state known as Colorado.

A good thing if you are a resident of the state that they are leaving, not such a good thing if you are a resident of Colorado.

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Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-08 12:57:58

It has definitely lured a lot of low-lifes to the state, as I have witnessed the last couple of years during my summer visits.

Comment by tresho
2018-02-09 03:45:34

It has definitely lured a lot of low-lifes to the state
Life seems to be trending lower & lower across the USA.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-02-08 14:01:51

Meth and heroin have been a problem here since before MJ legalization. Junkies gonna junk.

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Comment by rj not in chicago anymore
2018-02-08 12:23:28

With the market gyrating like it is - all that windfall ‘profit’ from those who are invested - wonder what happens to housing, credit card debt, car loans and debt donkey activism when the punch bowl is dry?

Instructed my investment team to go 10% cash last week in light of the non-sense that the govt is brewing. Staying put for now - but another couple of days like this -660 last I looked - I be calling my personal plunge protection team and going more cash.

Rj not in Chicago anymore.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-02-08 12:50:19

——————–> 23,800

Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-08 13:38:29

We might at least reach, if not close, at that level today!

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-02-08 14:06:33


Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-08 14:09:32

Well done! :D Closed at 23860.46, down 1032.89 for the day.

Comment by Puggs
2018-02-08 15:20:14

It was a fun ride up!

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Comment by jeff
2018-02-08 14:39:00

“all that windfall ‘profit’ from those who are invested”

Pick up your balls and load up your cannon
For a twenty-one gun salute

For those who are invested
We salute you

AC/DC - For Those About To Rock (We Salute You)

with lyrics


Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-08 12:56:57

‘With all that demand, it seems counterintuitive that average prices would slip from $412,225 to $400,751…Berthoud is a hot spot for new home construction’

Any shack in never-heard-of Colorado sells for what would’ve bought a ranch not long ago.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-08 13:56:08

Back when folks worked for a living?

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-08 14:35:19

Berthoud is halfway between Longmont and Loveland. Over the years it has gone very upscale and pricey. Absolutely no jobs there, and most appear to commute to Longmont, Boulder or Northern Denver.

People who live there are kind of snobby, because the live in Berthoud. Kind of reminds me of Poway, in San Diego.

Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-08 12:59:11

Donald was happy a couple weeks ago to take credit for the market going up. Will he take the blame for it going down? :D

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-08 13:56:46

And the Democrats were saying that it wasn’t Trump, but the policies put into place by his predecessor…will they admit that such policies launched asset values up, up, up?

Comment by messagetorudy
2018-02-08 13:57:42

Notice how DJT tweeted that the market going down on good news was a big mistake? He just put on notice all the HFT shops and other (((scum))) that have been running this market for the last decade. New sheriff in town boys, fly right or get a free trip to club gitmo.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-08 14:23:32

Hasn’t the “market” been going up on bad news for the last however many years?

Comment by Neuromance
2018-02-08 17:43:57

I look at DJT as kind of a clean-up man:

• Thirty to forty years of feckless financialization led to a pair of debt crises/real estate bubbles and stock market bubbles. It’s fallen to DJT to bring it under control.

• Nearly 40 years of feckless immigration policy has led to the illegal immigration/open borders problem we have today. DJT is actually willing to do something to stop it. “Without borders, you don’t have a country.”

• Forty-plus years of feckless industrial policy offshoring manufacturing and intellectual property has come to a head, and again it’s fallen to DJT to reverse course.

There are a lot of challenges ahead, but opportunities as well. I think many realized these experiments in financialization, deindustrialization and open borders had failed long ago. But no one had the will do anything about it. If the country can change course, it will be yet another achievement, the greatest of the man’s life and an epic achievement for the country. Of course, there is the opportunity for epic failure. But the man enjoys playing on a chaotic world’s stage, so he’s well suited to the task.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-08 19:39:53

It is yet too early for a real hero, who can put things together. First things must be broken apart.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-02-08 13:42:11

Brookhaven, NY Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As Housing Correction Ravages Long Island


Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-08 14:02:52

Update: Dow CRATERS $1000+, Set Up For Plunge At Tomorrows Open


Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-08 16:08:45

That’s the shakeout stage. After the shakeout stage has run its course the suck ‘em in stage will commence.

A wonderful thing to behold if one is positioned correctly. Somewhat awful if he is not.

Comment by Anonymous
Comment by palmetto
Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-08 21:06:37

Why did you post that photo of Bitcoin investors?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-08 16:12:21

The bears are on the loose!

The DebtDonkeys are stampeding.

Corrected for accuracy.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-08 14:40:14

Get even, Trump. Declare a national emergency and nationalize the banks, lol. That includes JPM and Goldman Sachs. After all, they’re the ones who wanted Gramm Leach Bliley.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-08 14:44:54

I thought the stock market only went up?

Comment by Neuromance
2018-02-08 19:22:40

This is what the “wealth effect” looks like when people try to turn it into wealth.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-08 22:57:18

Is a $5.2 trillion dollars loss a lot by world market standards?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-08 23:00:07

Volatility shock wave has wiped $5.2 trillion from global markets, sent five sectors into correction territory
By Max A. Cherney
Published: Feb 8, 2018 9:14 p.m. ET

The S&P 500 has lost $2.49 trillion in value in two weeks, nearly half its sectors are down more than 10%

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-08 15:00:00

Another one bites the dust.


Like I said, everything and everyone the Clintons touch turns to schitt. Cooperate with them, and your life will eventually be not worth living.

To be an enema of the Clintons is dangerous. To be a friend is fatal.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-08 16:00:08

“enema of the Clintons”


Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-08 16:50:54

‘In this context, one of the final executive orders of the Obama administration takes on new significance. Shortly before leaving office, Obama abruptly issued yet another expansion of the Reagan-era Executive Order 12333, dramatically enlarging some 17 government agencies’ legal authority to surveille U.S. citizens — an order that had followed even earlier expansions of the number of officials privy to surveilled information.’

‘Why such a radical move in the last days in office? The practical intent of that order might have been inadvertently contextualized by Evelyn Farkas, a former assistant deputy secretary of defense. On MSNBC’s Morning Joe show, she blurted out: I was urging my former colleagues and — and frankly speaking, the people on the Hill, it was more actually aimed — aimed at telling the Hill people, “Get as much information as you can, get as much intelligence as you can before President Obama leaves the administration.” Because, I had a fear that somehow that information would disappear with the senior people who left. So it would be hidden away in the bureaucracy that the Trump folks, the Trump folks, if they found out how we knew what we knew about their, the staff, the Trump staff’s dealing with Russians, that they would try to compromise those sources and methods, meaning we would no longer have access to that intelligence.”

‘What seems clear is that the present hysteria about the Trump administration was already deeply seeded in the federal government throughout the 2016 campaign and the 2016–17 transition. A number of powerful Obama officials thought they had both moral right and the administrative means to nullify Trump. And they were not shy in breaking the law to exercise them.’


Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-08 19:38:01

Not shy at all.

I hope they become shy.

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Comment by Overbanked
2018-02-08 21:08:19

I stopped reading National Review when they devoted a whole issue to demonizing Pat Buchanan as anti-Semitic.

But I guess everything’s cool over there now…

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-08 21:11:57

I’m not a big fan, but you take what you can get these days.

Comment by rms
2018-02-08 21:47:01

“I stopped reading National Review when they devoted a whole issue to demonizing Pat Buchanan as anti-Semitic.”

Ditto when National Review ostracized Joseph Sobran.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-02-08 16:53:43

Ormond Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Speculators Flood Market With Properties


Comment by azdude
2018-02-08 17:39:56

when I eat crater taters I think of your broke @ss.

Comment by jeff
2018-02-08 19:48:46

In this 1:33 video about the right time to buy a house CNBC shows you what the American family should look like.

Kevin O’Leary: Unless you can pass this two-question test, don’t buy a home

9 Hours Ago




From 0:35 - 0:38 you and your spouse look very happy.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-09 08:57:08

LOL! That was painfully PC.

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-08 21:17:38

It’s kind of odd to read this article on a day when asset markets came crashing down.

The bright minds who cooked up the Efficient Market Hypothesis, such as Eugene Fama, don’t seem to have discovered the existence of debt donkeys or greater fools.

What Bitcoin Reveals About Financial Markets
FEB. 8, 2018
Bitcoin futures being traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. Credit Scott Olson/Getty Images

The spectacular increase and recent plunge in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have raised concerns that the bursting of the Bitcoin bubble will cause financial markets to crash. They probably won’t, but the Bitcoin bubble should finally destroy our faith in the efficiency of markets.

Since the 1970s, economic policy has been based on the idea that financial market prices reflect all the information relevant to the value of any asset. If this is true, market prices are the best estimates of the value of any investment and financial markets should be relied on to allocate capital investment.

This idea, referred to in the jargon of economics as the efficient market hypothesis (technically, the strong efficient market hypothesis), implicitly underlay the deregulation of financial markets that started in the 1970s. Although rarely stated now with as much confidence as it was during its heyday in the 1990s, the efficient market hypothesis remains a background assumption of much central-bank and economic policy.

The hypothesis survived the absurdities of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s and early 2000s, as well as the meltdown in derivative markets that led to the global financial crisis in 2007 and 2008. Although the hypothesis should have been refuted by those disasters, it lived on, if only in zombie form.

But at least each of those earlier bubbles began with a plausible premise.

Consider: If Bitcoin is a “store of value,” then asset prices are entirely arbitrary. As the proliferation of cryptocurrencies has shown, nothing is easier than creating a scarce asset. The same argument would apply to any existing financial assets. Any stock in the S&P 500 could be priced not in terms of future earnings prospects but on the basis that people choose to value it highly.

Suppose, more plausibly, that Bitcoin has no underlying value and will eventually become worthless. According to the efficient market hypothesis, financial markets will correctly estimate the true value of Bitcoin and will drive the price to zero immediately.

But that hasn’t happened either. Until recently, it wasn’t even possible because the Bitcoin markets were themselves as opaque as the currency.

Now it is possible: Futures trading for Bitcoin on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has been going on since December. But Bitcoin prices rose after the creation of futures trading and began their sharp decline only when governments took measures to limit speculation.

Current futures contracts in Bitcoin extend as far as June of this year. According to those contract prices, the market expects Bitcoin to retain its value well into the future.

Whatever happens to Bitcoin, we must not lose sight of a more fundamental — and more worrisome — development: A financial product with a purely arbitrary value has been successfully introduced in the world’s most sophisticated financial markets.

Bitcoin probably won’t bring financial markets crashing down. But it shows that regulators need to cut those markets down to size.

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-08 21:21:36

Would now be a good time to BTFD and HODL?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-08 23:14:44

If the aftershocks of this week’s twin magnitude 7.0+ financial temblors turn out anything like the early 2000s tech stock collapse, then there’s no hurry to buy the dip. I recall that market unwind playing out for months on end!

The Financial Times
Equity Valuation
The ‘buy the dip’ mantra faces unexpected test
US stock volatility’s return poses a challenge for investors used to buying any pullback
The Cboe’s volatility index, which slumbered below its long-term average of 20 for much of the past decade, breached 50 this week © FT montage; Bloomberg
Nicole Bullock and Eric Platt yesterday

It took less than a day to debunk the longstanding mantra that financial markets are in an era of low volatility. As the shockwaves ripple out from this week’s ructions, another truism of recent years — that investors should “buy the dip” — faces scrutiny.

Robust global economic growth and the momentum that corporate earnings have favour holding equities, some analysts and investors say, even as interest rates rise and central banks slowly retreat from an era of very supportive monetary policy.

“Clearly the well of optimism that led US equities to new highs has run dry, at least temporarily.” says Craig Burelle, an analyst at Loomis Sayles. “But the global economy remains on firm footing, and that has not changed over the past few trading sessions.”

And given the magnitude of the surge in volatility and wild swings in share prices, sentiment will probably remain febrile as the market takes time to find a footing, echoing the reaction after previous shocks in August 2015 and early 2016.

Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says: “We had an incredibly rapid ascent in risk assets. We were all wondering when we would have this sell-off, everyone was expecting it and now we are starting to see it.”

The Cboe’s volatility index, which slumbered below its long-term average of 20 for much of the past decade, breached 50 this week. The losses inflicted on those investors who had bet — sometimes using exchange traded products — on volatility in US stocks staying low raises concerns about other risks embedded in financial markets.

“You do not know yet where all the bodies lie,” says George Schultze of Schultze Asset Management. “When something this big happens, it takes more than a day or two to clean up and for people to exit those losing positions.”

It is not hard to find those who advocate buying the dip.

“Unless you believe the current price action in the stock market is going to metastasise into something more concerning, you should be buying into this,” says Jonathan Golub, chief US equity strategist at Credit Suisse. “Investors who can remain calm in the face of volatility may have been given a gift.”

However, a robust global economy also brings its own challenges for equity investors. The euphoria that propelled Wall Street to its best January in three decades was already losing momentum as an acceleration in US earnings growth pushed bond yields towards 2.90 per cent early on Monday. The one-two punch of inflation worries and higher yields finally fractured the resolve of equity bulls, helping trigger the S&P 500’s worst trading day since 2011.

Hovering around 2.80 per cent, the 10-year Treasury yield sits just shy of four-year highs and is likely to head higher if new economic data reveals that the injection of tax cuts to an already growing US economy is fanning inflationary pressures.

“The [equity] market is adjusting to a tighter labour market, some modest pick-up in wages [and] a Federal Reserve that is likely to be tighter,’’ says Brian Levitt, senior investment strategist at Oppenheimer Funds. “The bond market is getting it right and the equity market is simply correcting from reasonably high valuations after a prolonged advance in a low interest rate environment,” he adds.

Comment by Parker
2018-02-08 23:09:22

New real estate listings in my area have more than doubled each of the last two days. I presume everyone is scrambling to offload their properties before the crash. Is anyone else seeing this trend since the markets went wacky?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-08 23:19:43

We may be witnessing the onset of a big correlated unwind of risk assets across the spectrum, including stocks, bonds, crypto and real estate. It’s a natural consequence of a historically protracted period where too much leverage chased too little yield.

Fasten your seatbelt!

Comment by azdude
2018-02-09 07:39:05

it seems the bond market is raising rates now. without central bank buying there are not a lot of other buyers at these yields.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-09 07:21:21

Parker, I’m seeing that in my old nabe back in the Tampa area. Been following it and whoo, boy, the stuff that’s been dumped on the market in just the past few days is incredible. Like everyone who had a house to sell decided to list at the same time.

I’m just wondering how many houses currently under contract won’t close due to more choice, lower prices, etc.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-08 23:38:09

My take on what is really going down:

1. Noone on Wall Street believed Janet Yellen would unwind Obama-era extraordinary accommodation, and she proved them right.

2.So far it seems like Powell may actually carry out punchbowl removal plans, which has Wall Street folks soiling themselves regularly and copiously.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-09 00:24:30

Capital Account
A Warning Sign Behind the Market Swings
The economy is still abnormally dependent on low interest rates and richly priced assets
By Greg Ip
Updated Feb. 7, 2018 7:38 p.m. ET

Don’t worry about stock-market volatility: It is perfectly normal. Do worry about how stocks got so high to start with because it is evidence of an economy still abnormally dependent on low interest rates and richly priced assets.

The 2,271-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the week through Monday, a decline of 9%, didn’t even meet the usual 10% threshold for a correction. Tuesday’s 567-point rebound didn’t make the top-500 daily increases by percentage. Wednesday’s 509-point swing between high and low was positively humdrum, with the Dow closing down 0.1%, at 24893.

Comment by azdude
2018-02-09 09:46:25

phony prices. u cant eat or use stocks. The real wealth isnt going up.

If real wealth was going up prices would be going down.

If you have more currency chasing the same wealth prices go up.

Comment by CrypTonick
2018-02-09 01:04:02

Try not to set your neighbors on fire while mining your Bitcoin.

Bitcoin mining believed to be behind huge fire in block of flats
Richard Hartley-Parkinson
Friday 9 Feb 2018 6:51 am
Bitcoin mining believed to be behind huge fire in block of flats
The remains of equipment destroyed in the fire suggested that it may have been started by bitcoin miners
(Picture: olegvoa/The Siberian Times/East2WestNews)

A block of flats is believed to have set on fire as a result of bitcoin mining, according to reports.

The top floor of the building in Russia was destroyed in the fire while dozens of other flats were flooded as a result of water from firefighters in Artem, near Vladivostok.

It is being reported that a resident was illegally using the block’s electricity at the time in order to mine the cryptocurrency.

A heavy power surge is said to have caused overheating of the circuits, leading to the fire.

‘We have spotted something which looks like mining equipment,’ said a spokesman for the local division of the Emergencies Ministry.

Pictures from the scene show the charred remains of some of the mining equipment.

A resident called Oleg confirmed that ‘mining rig equipment was found in the attic’.

He demanded: ‘I would now ban miners totally… so many apartments are burned completely, and 30 are flooded.’

Many Russians are seeking to get rich quick though bitcoins, exploiting the country’s relatively cheap electricity.

In a number of cases, ‘miners’ have broken into power supplies of residential blocks or warehouses to obtain free power, but firefighters warn this overheats electrical circuits with potentially deadly consequences.

Resident Roman Vislobokov told The Siberian Times: ‘Our apartment was across the wall from the fire.

‘At first our neighbour’s attic caught fire.

‘We survived by a miracle…at about 2am my girlfriend woke me with hallucinations from carbon monoxide gas. By that time there was no electricity.

‘In the smoke and darkness we grabbed our passports, took the dog, put on our shoes and jackets – and ran.

‘For half an hour we watched as everything burned, the fire spread all over our apartment.’

A total of 5,400 square feet was destroyed or damaged by the inferno.


Comment by CrypTonick
2018-02-09 01:06:49

The Ledger
Forget the Stock Market. Investors Are Trading in Gold for Bitcoin
The Future of Bitcoin
It’s going to be big … or, not.
By Lucinda Shen February 8, 2018

Bitcoin, the heavyweight of the cryptocurrency world, has billed itself as digital gold—a safe haven for investors to park their assets.

Apparently that image is having an impact. While Bitcoin’s status as a potential substitute investment to the shiny precious metal with thousands of years of human history is debatable, some investors are foregoing physical gold for its significantly younger brethren.

As Bitcoin prices inched toward an all-time high price above $19,500 in December, Byron Salamida, 48, of San Diego took some of his gold coins and decided to sell them at a local precious metals dealer. He planned to take the cash and purchase cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin—as he had been doing for the past two years. After all, while his gold coins were simply sitting there, with roughly the same value minute after minute, the price of the cryptocurrencies he owned was shooting up—seemingly into the stratosphere.

“Why keep something in gold? It’s stable. But why keep it in gold when it stays in a $100 range, when I could buy Bitcoin when it is increasing everyday?” Salamida said.


Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-09 07:59:14

Well this is just lovely, looks like Trump administration is considering bailing out failing “beautiful, clean coal.”

Trump Administration Is Weighing Emergency Aid for Some Coal Plants
Feb. 8, 2018

“The approach would require Rick Perry to use his authority as U.S. energy secretary to spur emergency compensation for coal plants run by FirstEnergy Solutions that may be at risk of shutting, said the people, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. Some Energy Department officials are weighing this option after federal regulators rejected a proposal by Perry last month to pay coal plants more for their “resilience,” they said. FirstEnergy hasn’t formally requested the aid, one of the people said.”

“When asked to confirm the talks, agency spokeswoman Shaylyn Hynes said “that is not correct information” but declined to provide further detail. The Energy Department’s press department later posted on Twitter that sources were “misinformed” on the consideration.”

“The FirstEnergy Solutions plants in question were at the heart of the Trump administration’s plan to compensate nuclear and coal generators more for their power. The proposal was rejected last month by members of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that Trump appointed who said it would violate U.S. law.”


Comment by palmetto
2018-02-09 08:06:33

Not gonna happen.

Comment by Obama Goons
2018-02-09 08:10:56

I love beautiful clean coal. Obama referred to it as clean coal technology.

Comment by Saltwater Catfish
2018-02-09 08:16:35

Bailouts = votes

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-09 08:25:30

Russ! You’re up early, how’s it going out there?

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-09 08:19:49

Trump’s gonna do this, Trump’s gonna do that. Meh. I want to see some of that Executive Order action. And bring the troops home from everywhere and let’s have a parade! I love a parade!


Comment by Saltwater Catfish
2018-02-09 08:34:11

I guess it’s only fair if Putin and Babypudge Kim get to have parades.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-09 08:47:39

The Boston Gay Men’s Chorus and their rendition of “I Love a Parade”


That’s some high camp right there! NTTAWWT

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-09 08:51:49

Well, here we go again! Stawks takin’ a dive:

Sad trombone:


Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-09 08:56:27

Barn door left open
All of the horses have fled
Hurry, shut the door!

The Financial Times
Watchdogs bare teeth as cryptocurrencies dive
Central bankers fear risk of contagion into financial mainstream
Martin Arnold and Chloe Cornish in London
3 hours ago

They have been branded a Ponzi scheme, a tax dodge and an environmental disaster — and that is merely a fraction of the criticism that regulators have thrown at cryptocurrencies in the past week alone.

When the price of bitcoin and the hundreds of copycat virtual currencies were rocketing last year, many financial watchdogs stayed quiet, limiting themselves to warning about the risks of investing in such unregulated and volatile assets.

Now the cryptocurrency bubble seems to have deflated — their combined market value has slumped from more than $800bn to less than $400bn in a month — the world’s financial regulators are starting to bare their teeth.

The latest to do so is Yves Mersch, a member of the executive board at the European Central Bank, who likened virtual currencies to the “will-o’-the-wisp, a malignant creature that dwelt in marshes” and often lured travellers “to their untimely death and a watery grave”.

Giving a speech in London, Mr Mersch added his voice to the growing chorus of financial supervisors who are calling for cryptocurrencies to be reined in to ensure they do not infiltrate the mainstream financial system. “Even if virtual currencies are not money, central banks should still be aware of the potential risks they pose for price stability and financial stability,” he said.

His comments echo those of Agustín Carstens, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements — known as the bank for central banks because it is where they hold accounts — who this week condemned bitcoin as “a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster”.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-09 08:59:25

Darwinism in action.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-09 09:07:06

Given rising bond yields and all the recent stock market volatility, is Bitcoin the best bet for Millennial investors?

Bitcoin Price Looks North as Stock Market Falls Again
Omkar Godbole
Feb 9, 2018 at 10:00 UTC | Updated Feb 9, 2018 at 10:08 UTC

BTC looks set to make further gains amid mixed action in the crypto markets.

Having hit a four-day high of $8,621.27 yesterday, CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI) fell to $7,754.67 at 05:29 UTC today. As of writing, prices had bounced back to $8,284. The cryptocurrency has depreciated by 0.4 percent in the last 24 hours, according to data source CoinMarketCap.

Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC) offshoot bitcoin cash has strengthened by 25 percent in the last 24 hours, while Ripple’s XRP token is reporting a 3 percent rise. The losing side includes names like Ethereum’s ether token, Cardano, Stellar and NEO, which are all showing slight dips.

Bitcoin’s retreat from $8621.27 to $7,754 coincided with a 1000 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), reportedly due to a rise in U.S. bond yields and fears of higher inflation.

Comment by azdude
2018-02-09 09:05:30

just the absence of central bank buying in the bond markets will have rates go up. That is way more important than the jibberish talk about raising the FED Funds rate.

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-09 22:17:26

Pretty funny how the Fed lets the straw man hang out there unrefuted about how they control bond yields through open market operations…

Comment by jeff
2018-02-09 09:10:32

So they didn’t like borrowing printed money from The Bank of England at interest.

“This country was started with having money that represented value and today we’re living under a system where the currency represents debt and enslavement to the Private Central Bank.”

Mike Rivero

Comment by azdude
2018-02-09 09:12:00

question of the day:

What interest rate would u take on a 10 year treasury to make u happy?

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-09 22:18:28

I could live with 6% yields against the backdrop of 3% inflation…

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-09 09:21:02

The biggest financial news of the week which MSM financial writers seem to have overlooked is in the correlated selloff in stocks and long-term bonds. The flight to quality in long-term bonds, which has been a reliable fixture of market behavior for decades, is dead.

This is bad news for HODLers of retirement income funds which contain a blend of stocks and long-term bonds.

Is the decades-long downtrend in interest rates finally over?
By Tomi Kilgore
Published: Feb 9, 2018 7:10 a.m. ET
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is peeking above a 30-year downtrend line. Here’s what experts are saying

You don’t need to be a technical analyst to get nervous when you see this chart—especially when you consider that the only trend in longer-term interest rates that an entire generation of people has ever known may have finally ended.
FactSet, MarketWatch

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.29% has an effect on all parts of the economy, as it influences everything from borrowing costs for the smallest and biggest companies, to rates for fixed and adjustable mortgages, car loans and credit cards. For three decades, one thing everyone could count on was if you were patient enough, rates would eventually be lower.

Not anymore.

The scariest thing for investors and consumers is often the unknown. But while some market pundits acknowledge that a “new norm” for rates is in the works, it’s not that rates are expected to spike back up to where they were in the 1980s. Besides, some people, such as those living off a fixed income, should actually welcome the new trend.

Don’t miss: 10-year Treasury yield notches biggest weekly climb since Trump’s election.

Comment by azdude
2018-02-09 09:33:25

seems like all the central banks around the world have been the only buyers in town for treasuries. If they quit buying look out below.

financial assets have been deeply distorted.

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