February 12, 2018

The Boccee Ball Is In Their Court

A report from Bisnow in Washington DC. “D.C.’s investment sales market started off hot in 2018, but amid an environment with falling multifamily rents and tepid office leasing, some investors think deals are being overpriced and are shying away from buying in the District. Crowdfunding platform Fundrise in August 2016 had announced plans to invest $200M annually in D.C. multifamily properties, as part of a JV with Insight Property Group, but Fundrise CEO Ben Miller said he has since become less bullish on D.C. ‘The market has gotten very pricey, and there is a lot of new supply of multifamily,’ Miller said.”

“The District’s Class-A apartment rents fell 3.9% in 2017, according to Delta Associates, coinciding with the delivery of 4,789 units, 45% more than hit the market the prior year. That supply growth is expected to increase even more this year. Given these fundamentals, Miller said it does not make sense for investors and developers to keep putting money into new projects. ‘Every cycle you build an industry; this cycle they built an industry around multifamily. A lot of multifamily real estate companies have to stay active, so they’re going to continue to do deals even when they shouldn’t,’ Miller said. ‘If you look at the supply of multifamily coming in this year and next year, and Class-A multifamily rents went down last year and probably will this year and the following year, why do they keep building? Why are they still supplying the market?’”

The American Statesman in Texas. “Ever since 2010, Austin-area renters could count on one thing: Renting an apartment was going to get more expensive every year. But real estate consultant Charles Heimsath’s latest report shows that – at least for now – the market has become more forgiving to renters. Experts say the shift was brought on by several factors: a surge of new apartment construction, more renters jumping to home ownership and a slight slowdown in the region’s job growth.”

“Last year, developers added 10,727 new apartments to the market, nearly equaling the record of 10,780 in 2016, Heimsath said. However, only 55 percent of the new supply was leased last year, in contrast to 81 percent in 2016, he said. On the occupancy side, the rate fell to 91.3 percent — a level unseen since 2010 — and down from 95 percent five years ago, said Robin Davis, manager of Austin Investor Interests. The decline was due in part to an ‘over-saturation’ of new apartment construction, Davis said, along with other factors, including job relocations and losing tenants to home purchases or home rentals.”

The Chicago Sun Times in Illinois. “Apartment hunters have the proverbial ball in their courts, particularly in new luxury buildings near public transportation, where some developers are offering free rent and other incentives to fill up their buildings. ‘There is no question it is a great time to be a renter in Chicago right now; there’s a lot of options,’ said broker Aaron Galvin, CEO of Luxury Living Chicago.”

“Galvin’s firm helps people to find apartments in the ‘Luxury Class A’ market made up of newer buildings constructed since 2000. He predicts March will hit ‘peak vacancy’ with roughly 5,000 new luxury apartment units up for rent in Downtown and surrounding neighborhoods. According to Galvin, buildings that stand out from the pack offer free ride-sharing pools, third-party services (organized dog walking, food delivery, on-site dry cleaning) and shared amenities such as study rooms, where residents work in open co-working type spaces. Social hangouts like bocce ball courts and demonstration kitchens are also draws.”

“Spoke, a 363-unit apartment community, was opened in December by Bond Cos. on the grounds of the demolished Gonnella Bread Co. Rents start at $1,795 for a studio, while a two-bedroom unit goes for $3,880. There’s also a two-bedroom, 15th-floor penthouse with a terrace for $6,345. New Spoke residents get a welcome gift that includes a package of Gonnella breadcrumbs as a nod to the site’s past. Through the end of February, Spoke is offering two months of free rent on 18-month leases. Damon Dance, vice president of Bond Cos., said the free rent concession ‘equalizes Spoke’s pricing in a competitive market.’”

From The Real Deal on New York. “Leasing at the Eugene, the first completed ground-up tower at Brookfield Property Partners and Qatar Investment Authority’s Manhattan West megaproject, launched to great fanfare in March. But almost a year later, the $800 million, 844-unit building’s revenues are off to a slow start.”

“The rental tower at 435 West 31st Street contributed just $1 million in funds from operations — a common measure of real estate investment trust earnings — in the fourth quarter, Brookfield’s real estate CFO Brian Davis said during an earnings call. That’s a far cry from the $10 million Brookfield expects the tower to make annually once stabilized.”

“According to StreetEasy, units at the Eugene are no-fee and come with two months free rent on a 14-month lease and three months free rent on a 27-month lease. A surge of new supply over the past two years has pushed rents down and concessions up across the city. Landlord concessions, which often come in the form of free rent, reached a new record for the fourth consecutive month in January, according to a new report by appraisal firm Miller Samuel.”

From Curbed New York. “The January market reports are out, and it looks like the New York City rental market is kicking off the new year much like it spent the last one. ‘The prevailing theme across the board was the record number of market-share concessions set,’ says Jonathan Miller, author of Douglas Elliman’s report.”

“Rental concessions from landlords are at an all-time high in Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens. In Manhattan, the share of new leases signed with some kind of concession was a whopping 49.3 percent, up from 30.9 percent. In Brooklyn that share was 47.5 percent, up from 18.1 percent. And in Queens, the share came in at a whopping 50.8 percent, up from 38.5 percent.”

“In Manhattan, the median rental price fell 2.8 percent to $3,275 and the net effective rent—which takes into account concessions—declined 3.6 percent to $3,141. (That drop in the net effective rent is the largest annual decline in more than six years.) The size of concession was 1.4 months of free rent or equivalent, up from 1.3 months the prior month. In Queens, January marked the fourth time the concession market share reached a new record high. The median rental price was $2,650, down 1.9 percent, and the net effective rent declined 4.7 percent to $2,507. (That’s the fifth year-over-year decline in net effective rent in six months.) The size of concession was 1.8 months, up from 1.1 months.”

“More than 40 percent of rental transactions brokered by Citi Habitats offered a free month’s rent and/or payment of the broker fee to entice new tenants in January, up from 41 percent in December. ‘These incentives remain remarkably high,’ the firm notes, and they’re being offered on both new construction units and re-rentals.”

RSS feed


Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-12 09:16:59

‘A lot of multifamily real estate companies have to stay active, so they’re going to continue to do deals even when they shouldn’t…If you look at the supply of multifamily coming in this year and next year, and Class-A multifamily rents went down last year and probably will this year and the following year, why do they keep building? Why are they still supplying the market?’

Yellen bucks looking for a place to die?

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-12 10:16:36

And according to the Eugene article, generous backing by the taxpayers.

Comment by Saltwater Catfish
2018-02-12 20:16:20

Trump, Real Estate Investors Get Late-Added Perk in Tax Bill
By Lynnley Browning
and Benjamin Bain
December 17, 2017, 5:08 PM PST
Updated on December 18, 2017, 1:58 PM PST

Bloomberg’s Kevin Cirilli reports on who could benefit from the GOP tax reform bill.

Lawmakers scrambling to lock up Republican support for the tax reform bill added a complicated provision late in the process — one that would provide a multimillion-dollar windfall to real estate investors such as President Donald Trump.

The change, which would allow real estate businesses to take advantage of a new tax break that’s planned for partnerships, limited liability companies and other so-called “pass-through” businesses, combined elements of House and Senate legislation in a new way. Its beneficiaries are clear, tax experts say, and they include a president who’s said that the tax legislation wouldn’t help him financially.

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-12 23:28:13

Except Trump makes a lot of money by licensing his name to real estate projects, NOT by investing capital in them.

In order to get this break, you need to actually invest capital.

From my understanding, our president’s wealth is as exaggerated as many note…in other words, he doesn’t invest much capital in his real estate investments…he is a promoter, not investor.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-13 07:29:14

It’s going to take more than tax legislation to hope those poor real estate investors anyway.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-02-12 09:17:56

Chevy Chase, MD Housing Prices Crater 24% YOY As Housing Correction Ravages DC Area


Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-02-12 09:20:28

Realtors are liars.

Comment by 2banana
2018-02-12 09:22:35

Does ANYONE looking for an apartment want or need “study rooms, where residents work in open co-working type spaces” or a bocce ball court or a demonstration kitchen?????


According to Galvin, buildings that stand out from the pack offer free ride-sharing pools, third-party services (organized dog walking, food delivery, on-site dry cleaning) and shared amenities such as study rooms, where residents work in open co-working type spaces. Social hangouts like bocce ball courts and demonstration kitchens are also draws.”

Comment by oxide
2018-02-12 10:16:46

In the past, nobody through about a study room* because everyone had office space. But now with people gigging at home all the time, it’s a great idea. Give them a pleasant common-area home office setup, with lots of electrical outlets and good wi-fi. Then the residents don’t have to rob their bedrooms for office space. And the rest of us don’t have to deal with these yahoos hogging a table at Sbux for hours on end. Hmmmm… if the builder is smart, they will make sure there is an easily available Sbux nearby.

If I were a young Millenial working off the iPhone, I’d prefer the study room over the hot yoga studio.

*study rooms aren’t new. I’ve heard of some on-campus apartments having in-unit study rooms, which are basically a small room the size of a walk-in closet, outfitted with desks and outlets and such.

Comment by Big V
2018-02-12 10:52:44

I would prefer my own private study room. That way I don’t have to rob the office for bed space.

Comment by whirlyite
2018-02-12 12:53:31

I love to come home where I don’t have to be around other people.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-12 13:37:16

Who wants, much less needs, a study room with a bunch of distractions from strangers when you can work in the quiet environs of your apartment that you’re paying for?

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-12 14:16:12

I can’t opine on the study room concept, but at our last condo complex we lived in there was a workout room with some basic cardio machines overlooking the Wasatch mountains. I used that a lot, though I was in the minority. There was also a common room with a small kitchen, big couches, and full access cable. I used that as my 2nd living room since no one was really there. I also happened to meet some of the other residents. It was quite a nice touch I think.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by oxide
2018-02-12 14:43:12

Evidently Millenials thrive on doing their gig-work in “vibrant” places like Sbux or common area study rooms.

Apartment builders aren’t catering to us old fogeys.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-12 15:59:11

Meh, it sounds like more BS ginned up by speculators who overpaid for apartment buildings, or the land they’re building them on.

Comment by Parker
2018-02-12 17:49:39

In other words, they’re looking for an adult version of college.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-13 07:40:50

It’s what the modern office is looking like as well, with the now ubiquitous “workbench seating” environments. Now you’re lucky if you get a cubicle.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-13 07:42:16

Sad Panda Narrative.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by 2banana
2018-02-12 09:43:16

God Bless DJT.

There is a reason why the cesspool region of Washington DC has the highest housing costs and most “wealthy” neighborhoods of the country.


You’re fired: Trump to rid ‘worst’ federal workers, automatic raises, fat bennies
The Washington Examiner | February 9, 2018 | Paul Bedard

President Trump plans to take the huge federal Civil Service off cruise control, ending automatic pay increases that go to 99.7 percent of the workforce, trimming fat benefit packages, and for the “worst,” rolling out his trademark phrase from The Apprentice, “You’re fired!”

In his budget, set for release Monday, his administration is planning the biggest reform to the federal workforce in decades, using models from Amazon, Google, and a handful of well-operating agencies.

Officials said the overall goal is to bring the 1950s-styled Civil Service into the digital age, introduce automation, reward “the best” with bonuses, make it easier to hire and fire, and provide “flexibility” by moving employees where they are needed and even rehiring skilled retirees.

Gone would be the automatic reward of pay “step” increases of 3 percent to 5 percent which 99.7 percent of workers get, regardless of their performance. Also targeted, said the officials, are annual reviews that now give “everybody” a grade of four or five on a scale of five. And benefits, now 47 percent higher than in the private workforce, according to a congressional report, will be trimmed.

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump called for a smaller, more efficient federal government and he repeated that in his State of the Union Address. “Tonight, I call on the Congress to empower every cabinet secretary with the authority to reward good workers and to remove federal employees who undermine the public trust or fail the American people,” he said.

Comment by oxide
2018-02-12 10:49:34

FWIW, the step increases aren’t truly automatic. You have to get a minimum grade on the annual review in order to rise up a step. That said, the grades are somewhat inflated so that almost everyone does get the minimum grade (and if they don’t they are put into a remedial program).

There have been some noises about toughening the annual grading to mitigate the grade inflation, but it’s nowhere near standard across the board, not even in the same agency. When inconsistent grading leads to a measurable inconsistency in pay, the accusations will fly. I don’t think Trump is going to make much headway here.

How do they plan to “automate” what fed workers do? I wasn’t aware that the federal workers were picking tomatoes or flipping burgers or scanning groceries. And…1950s? They must think that the office looks like the set of Mad Men, shorthand and typewriters. :roll:
Our workflow trackers, travel arrangements, time cards, training schedules, publications… it’s all done by job-killing software, same as any workplace.

The perception is that the feds get paid more than the general workforce, because the private workforce includes the bennie-less lucky duckies. In the fed gov, the lucky ducky work is contracted out and the fed workforce is almost all professionals. In my little area of gov, the equivalent private worker makes about 25% more than a Fed. That buys some nice bennies. In upper management, the privates make 1.5-2x as much.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-12 13:43:11

Yeah, but you guys aren’t constantly looking over your shoulders, worrying about whether the next RIF will claim you. And the older you get, the scarier that gets.

Comment by oxide
2018-02-12 14:46:00

And as someone who was laid off, I fully appreciate that job security is the real perk of government work.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-12 16:02:16

That job security is what produces some of the worst employees known to mankind. The state and local government workers around here are blatantly rude and disrespectful to those who they are chosen to serve and who pay their salaries.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-12 14:23:21

For what it’s worth, human performance reviews in general are terribly unscientific and almost never achieve their stated goal of accurately evaluating performance. To wit, take a look at the idiosyncratic rater effect:


“How good a rater do you think you are? If you were my manager and you watched my performance for an entire year, how accurate do you think your ratings of me would be on attributes such as my “promotability” or “potential?””

“How about more specific attributes such as my customer focus or my learning agility? Do you think that you’re one of those people who, with enough time spent observing me, could reliably rate these aspects of my performance on a 1-to-5 scale? And how about the people around you – your peers, direct reports, or your boss? Do you think that with enough training they could become reliable raters of you?”

“Unfortunately, we are mistaken. The research record reveals that neither you nor any of your peers are reliable raters of anyone. And as a result, virtually all of our people data is fatally flawed.”

Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-12 19:40:33

A crappy manager (or whatever title) can always mark down their staff. And thus make it look as if the problems in that office (shop, whatever) are due to the staff.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-13 07:45:06

Usually focusing on a scapegoat, sometimes more than one. I’ve seen this happen to people who were good performers, but who were not on the boss’s pet list.

Comment by Parker
2018-02-12 18:06:26

The best things anyone could do to increase the efficiency of the federal workforce are to: 1) Acquire functional applications and systems, and 2) pass a damn budget. The computer systems in the federal government are nearly all antiquated, in-intuitive, and require multiple spreadsheets to maintain crosswalks between systems that can’t talk to each other. We have the technology to improve finance, HR, and a whole range of other processes, but contracting side rails and the inability of any government agency to talk to another one keep federal employees trying to meet 2018 expectations with 1997 technology.

As for the budget process, congress plays “kick the can” as long as possible, which essentially hobbles most agencies for about half the year. Imagine having to budget your household expenses for an entire year without knowing what your budget it until halfway through the year. Maybe it will be more, maybe the same, maybe less. Contracts can’t be processed until after the contracting deadline, positions go vacant because managers are afraid to commit funds, and sometimes gobs of money are either thrown or clawed back with only a few months to change the preceding year’s worth of commitments and activities.

I recently relocated and left the federal government for a position in local government. The difference in regulatory freedom, modern technology, and a functional budget and accounting system has dramatically increased my ability to do my job. Most of those “lazy” federal employees everyone is convinced make up most of the government are actually exhausted from spinning their wheels to no avail. Most of my colleagues were smart, capable, and motivated, but also constantly hobbled by working conditions.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-12 21:47:14

Leon Panetta, who served under multiple administrations, spoke a profound truth a few years ago: “In our democracy, we govern either by leadership or by crisis. If leadership is not there, make no mistake about it, we will govern by crisis and, right now, we largely govern by crisis.”

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by oxide
2018-02-13 07:12:20

Most of those “lazy” federal employees everyone is convinced make up most of the government are actually exhausted from spinning their wheels to no avail.

Thank you for this. Every time they try to “improve” the software it fails even more. If the staff complains, then they label us as “afraid of change.” Well no sh!t Sherlock. If change makes things worse, then being afraid of change is the intelligent thing to do.

For example, I have to fill out a form by Thursday. I can’t figure out how to do it. I have all the information but the software is so bad I can’t figure it out. I’ll muddle through somehow.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by drumminj
2018-02-13 07:47:47

For example, I have to fill out a form by Thursday. I can’t figure out how to do it.

Print it out and do it by hand? That’s still my preferred approach these days

Comment by oxide
2018-02-13 09:08:23

Nope, we are “required by law” to file it electronically. It’s not a single page with fill-in-the-blank. First you have to check some boxes to tell them what kind of lists you’re going to enter.
Then, to enter each item in a list, you have to type one item in the box, click “save and add a new one” and enter another one in. Yeah, it’s one of those ugly things.

I did finally figure it out.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-13 07:53:58

keep federal employees trying to meet 2018 expectations with 1997 technology

FWIW, IT systems in the private sector often often aren’t all that either, and for good reason: it costs a lot money to have a state of the art system.

In most of Corporate America IT systems are also a hodge podge of systems that don’t work all that well together. And the “IT Guy” is on the endangered species list. Where I work individuals are responsible for maintaining their own desktops and laptops. If you want to upgrade Windoze on your box, or reinstall it, you have to download an ISO, install it on a thumb/flash drive and then do the installation yourself. You also have to do it when you get a new machine.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-13 08:53:03

You’re reminding me of the firm where I began working in the late 1980s, which was still using software that ran on a Cobalt platform. Cobalt was a nearly extinct 1960s era business-oriented programming language well suited for the mainframe era. With PCs on our desks loaded with spreadsheet and word processing software, we newbies felt somewhat bewildered by the requirement to use the ancient system the firm relied on, but modernization was considered too expensive an investment.

Comment by oxide
2018-02-13 09:11:24

Colorado you’re right. Most of this “automation” they keep yammering about isn’t really robots turning screws. It’s making the customer do his own clerical work. Every professional is now his own typist, his own librarian, his own mail-room, his own copyist, etc. And his own grocery checker and his own gas pumper too.

Comment by oxide
2018-02-12 10:55:26

On another note, do you really think those wealthy neighborhoods are filled with underperforming federal employees? Ha. Try high-end lawyers, lobbyists, defense contractors…

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-02-12 11:15:22

Government contractors cost U.S. taxpayers half a trillion dollars a year.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-12 11:18:03

high-end lawyers, lobbyists, defense contractors…

Low hanging fruit.

Comment by messagetorudy
2018-02-12 17:13:10

When you say defense contractors, the swamp dwellers you speak of are either ex-military (general/admiral) and/or lawyers and lobbyists. They get hired to milk their connections, plain and simple and oftentimes they write contracts when they were in .mil that feed the money to their future employer in return for a cushy job with stock options. The peons that actually do the work get no such options. If they dont live in DC they fly there at least once a month and in some cases every week to ensure a place at the trough.

Without contractor peons, the govt would do a grand total of Jacks-t. The vast majority are clueless and/or lazy and are of no mind to actually do real work. I would say 10-20% are good workers but also lack current skills that are required by the contracting companies. Contractors at times get away with crazy charges because .gov workers who are there to provide oversight are ignorant, lazy and dont treat the money they dole out as their money. Very little malfeasance takes place without .gov looking the other way or a result of laziness/indifference.

I’ve written this white house numerous times pleading not to increase the .mil/.gov budget but to instead weed out waste fraud and abuse and make .gov efficient. More money is not the answer. I havent seen yuge amounts wasted personally, just the constant day to day instances where money gets pizzed away on stupid things that are a waste of time. Every organization feeding at the .gov trough does this though - spend it or lose it.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-12 12:34:19

Dunn Loring, VA Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY As DC Area Housing Inventory Balloons


Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-12 19:38:32

“…annual reviews that now give “everybody” a grade of four or five on a scale of five.”

This exactly describes the “enlisted evaluation system” used in the Air Force.* In my experience, a 4 is fairly bad. And no one gets lower unless they actually got into trouble during the rating period. Even if you got an overall 5, if there was a slight markdown in one area, that would later eliminate you from consideration for certain things.

*At least as of when I retired four years ago. I doubt much has changed, I’m sure the ratings are still grossly inflated.

Comment by Jessica
2018-02-13 18:32:53

I don’t know about ridding Federal workers. A couple of friends of mine got a 5.5% raise this past year. Silly me working in private where we get 3% raises.

Comment by rms
2018-02-13 22:07:43

“A couple of friends of mine got a 5.5% raise this past year.”

Not from the federal government… unless they were promoted. I have friends at several federal offices, and they’ve been dead flat for years. Local government is the place to be especially if you have an advanced degree.

Comment by Jessica
2018-02-14 03:35:01

The federal government in DC pays the average worker 100K a year. And no - they did not get promoted.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by oxide
2018-02-12 10:00:20

Speaking of DC multifamily, this little 7-condo rowhouse made news in the Washington Post. The newsworthy bit is that two of the smaller units are priced at less than $400K. The units are 410 and 470 sq ft.


Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-12 10:05:10

‘Last year, (Austin) developers added 10,727 new apartments to the market, nearly equaling the record of 10,780 in 2016…However, only 55 percent of the new supply was leased last year, in contrast to 81 percent in 2016, he said. On the occupancy side, the rate fell to 91.3 percent — a level unseen since 2010′

The article says many tens of thousands on the way. Jeebus what a disaster in the making.

Comment by MGSpiffy
2018-02-12 16:17:56

Isn’t it the same in DFW? And they had 50K units in the pipeline?

As I remember, building apartments was always pretty easy in Texas given that most of the major metro areas could expand outwards. Zoning, land acquisition and regulation wasn’t the hurdle it is some other places. Given that I could see a lot of investor money pouring in when it seemed like the market was leasing them as fast they could build them.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-12 10:08:21

‘roughly 5,000 new luxury apartment units up for rent in Downtown and surrounding neighborhoods…Spoke, a 363-unit apartment community, was opened in December by Bond Cos. on the grounds of the demolished Gonnella Bread Co. Rents start at $1,795 for a studio, while a two-bedroom unit goes for $3,880. There’s also a two-bedroom, 15th-floor penthouse with a terrace for $6,345. New Spoke residents get a welcome gift that includes a package of Gonnella breadcrumbs as a nod to the site’s past’

What marketing whiz came up with this? A 2 bedroom for close to 4k. And you’ve got 5,000 of these empty beauties.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-12 10:24:02

At least you get a bag of breadcrumbs.

Comment by oxide
2018-02-12 10:53:03

Kinda makes you long for those salad days long ago, when you got a luxe car as a gift for purchasing a McMansion…

Comment by Lurker
2018-02-12 11:39:52

“At least you get a bag of breadcrumbs”

That’s got to be the spiderman towel of 2018.

Comment by Young Deezy
2018-02-13 08:52:07

LoooooL, I had forgotten about the Spiderman towel.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Big V
2018-02-12 10:51:03

If Monday had a face, I’d punch it. Speaking of that, I would like to know why Realtors never do their jobs. I can’t even get one to write me back so I can sell a house. How do these ppl pay their bills?

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-12 16:12:55

Sell it yourself. What do you need a REALTWHORE for?

Comment by Big V
2018-02-12 16:48:27

The MLS.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-13 07:57:31

If the realtwhore can sell it in just a few days with multiple offers, a FSBO shouldn’t be hard at all.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-13 08:11:44

The problem is organic housing demand is at 20 year lows and falling.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-02-12 11:08:33

Venice, FL 34285 Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY


*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

Comment by ibbots
2018-02-12 11:17:01

“The cost of financing a home is now at one of the highest points in years.

Along with pulling down the securities market, higher interest rates are likely to slow the rate of home price appreciation in markets across the U.S., said Daren Blomquist, economist with Attom Data Solutions.”


Comment by MGSpiffy
2018-02-12 16:24:18

“Median North Texas housing costs have shot up by more than 40 percent in the last four years to an all-time high”

Crap. In the past I’ve owned homes in Garland and Rockwall. The thing about those areas was that you could own a home on median income, or less.

Add higher interest rates into the mix, and those working-class to middle-class neighborhoods are in for a big shock.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-12 11:39:28

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha …


Comment by 2banana
2018-02-12 11:49:27

Amazing chart. Not even a blip in the growth in the middle of the last official recession

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-12 12:22:21

Recession? What’s a Recession?

When you are a college student you are insulated from such nastiness.

A recession is one of those real-world thingies you hear about now-and-then from adults.

(Not that anyone listens.)

Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-12 19:44:37

That’s the most linear chart I’ve seen in a long time.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-02-12 12:01:55

Redmond, WA 98052 Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY


*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-02-12 12:29:10

Breaking news: Donald Trump Jr’s wife hospitalized after opening letter with suspicious powder, mailed by the “tolerant left”

Comment by jeff
2018-02-12 18:49:35

The ABC Evening Propoganda spent about 18 seconds on that when they were done with their 5 minute lead story of DJT not being angry enough at the dude he fired for spouse abuse this weekend.

Comment by jeff
2018-02-12 12:39:59

These Deniers are throwing their skis away.

It is so cold at the Winter Olympics, skiers are being forced to throw away their expensive skis after practice runs

Feb 8th 2018 11:05AM

Coaches threw away skis after Wednesday’s practice runs at the Winter Olympics.

When the temperature gets so cold, the snow crystals form sharp edges and ruin the bottom of the skis.

Six people were recently treated for hypothermia during a concert held at the stadium that will be used for the opening ceremony on Friday.

“One of the coaches said they are throwing the skis out after today,” said Craig Randell, a start crew technician who is working his third Olympics, told Reuters. “You can’t do anything about it but with the cold temperatures, the snow adheres to the ski base and twists it. They are turning their skis to garbage real fast.”

According to Reuters, the weather was in the single digits Fahrenheit during the morning training runs.


Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-12 13:16:04


And then there is this.

Finally some honesty about the fantasy on which the IPCC bases their projections.

Let’s just say they use extremely dubious assumptions about man’s use of high-carbon energy sources in the future to feed into their models that historically have a bias toward warmer calculations.

The article by the way I’m sure was published because the author toed the proper line by NOT saying everything was OK.

But they did rightfully point out that after more than a century of generally less carbon intensive energy sources (including declines in the use of coal), the IPCC assumes that we are going to use MORE coal in the future. And on that basis, they have issued their projections, and on that basis, things like the Paris Agreement have been reached.

And pointing this out does not make one a “climate denier”…it simply makes one reasonably question the assumptions that go into a push to reallocate enormous resources to a problem where the severity of said problem is very much in question.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-12 13:39:56

Reasonably question = something a climate denier does.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-12 15:04:39

Interesting read Rental Watch. This analysis basically says that the worst case scenario is not likely because renewables are taking over much faster than predicted.

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-12 15:31:22

Stop. You are implying that this is an issue of adopting renewables, etc….a backdoor argument to throwing more government money at such projects–and thus harming those who are trying to invent power sources that are even MORE efficient than those the government has chosen for tax breaks, etc.

The trend for man using less and less carbon for it’s energy needs has been going on for far longer than the concept of renewable energy sources has existed, and is based in a non-stop drive to find cheaper sources of power and/or more efficient means of using such power.

Here is the important point that is not necessarily spelled out as clearly (as noted, the author of course, wanted this article published):

The “baseline” used used by the IPCC (and thus bleeding over into the logic behind the Paris Climate accord’s analysis) is bullsh*t.

Their analysis assumes that the 100+ year trend of man using less carbon intensive energy sources over time is reversed.

Yet if you use that argument as the basis for re-thinking how many resources we should dedicate to combat “climate change”, you are labeled a “denier of science”.

Matt Ridley (a self-proclaimed “lukewarmer”) made a similar comment in front of the Royal Society of London in 2016–namely that the IPCC “baseline” was based on bullsh*t assumptions, and so we should be discounting the IPCC’s projections accordingly.

And he almost was denied an audience to speak at the society on the basis that he was a “denier” of climate science.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-12 17:37:59

Stop. You are implying that this is an issue of adopting renewables, etc….a backdoor argument to throwing more government money at such projects–and thus harming those who are trying to invent power sources that are even MORE efficient than those the government has chosen for tax breaks, etc.

That is not what I’m implying. Nat gas and nuclear are cleaner than coal. Oil is too, marginally. Wind and solar are cleanest. They are growing the fastest. Even without any subsidies (for fossil fuels or renewables), the studies I see suggest that renewables will be (or now are) the most cost effective, ideology aside.

People think I’m green because I love the environment (I do), but it’s also because I want to save green (money). Renewables will never take off unless they are cost effective. Once training wheels of subsidies come off, they must stand their ground, or fail. Current trends show they are winning. China’s heft will probably tip the scales and make its ascendance inevitable:


Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-12 18:32:15

Renewables will never take off unless they are cost effective. Once training wheels of subsidies come off, they must stand their ground, or fail.

If they were cost effective, they wouldn’t need subsidies.

My point stands. My takeaway from the article is that the main models upon which we are basing global efforts to combat climate change is dependent upon a 100+ year trend reversing itself.

That seems to be an indefensible position, yet the climate change alarmist group defend that position with ignorant vigor and vitriol toward anyone who dare note this key flaw in the analysis.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-12 18:43:26

The key flaw in the analysis is the assumption that CO2 in the atmosphere blankets the earth with a layer of insulation, which doesn’t prevent radiation from the sun during the day but prevents radiation from the earth on the night side.

They guy who came up with this used a plate of glass on a box to demonstrate. Hence the Greenhouse effect. He was batsh*t crazy.

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-12 23:31:22

The other problem BlueSkye is that even if you buy into the view that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, the consensus is that CO2 is a WEAK greenhouse gas. It’s others that are more problematic (water vapor, and methane, which has a half-life in the atmosphere in any event).

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-12 15:53:47

The real culprit is the biggest expansion of credit in the history of the world. When that bubble collapses, we won’t have to debate where you get your electricity for a very long time.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by steadykat
2018-02-12 15:08:30

This is an enjoyable older (global warming) English documentary that some of you may have already seen.

The Great Global Warming Swindle:

It lays out the idea that Co2 is a result of warming not the other way around. It also features a couple of prominent IPCC scientists who decided not to follow the party line.

This video isn’t bad, either. Penn and Teller get people (Earth-day types) to sign a petition to ban Dihydrogen monoxide (water):

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-12 15:32:42


Worth it if you haven’t watched it already.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by ibbots
2018-02-12 16:12:11

‘Xcel is a US$11 billion gas and electric utility giant that serves 3.3 million people across 8 states.

Last year, Xcel reached an agreement to shut down two Colorado coal plants 10 years earlier than planned. But there was a hitch. The plants would only be shut down if Xcel could replace their 660 megawatts of power with lower-cost clean energy alternatives.

On August 30, 2017, Xcel put out a solicitation for bids to see what the market could offer. The last time Xcel did an open solicitation, they received 55 bids in total. This time 430 bids were received. 251 included solar, 119 included wind, and most surprising of all, 105 included storage. The sheer number of responses was stunning but it was the price of the bids that made international news headlines.’

‘The world’s collective jaws hit the collective floor when bids for wind came back to Xcel at 1.8 cents per kilowatt hour and solar came back at 3.0 cents.’


Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-12 17:20:22

Ironically, the article says wind and solar with storage is six times the cost of combustion turbine. The document presented as public is heavily blacked out. Seriously?

Also total operating cost for coal plant compared to construction cost for wind and solar (without storage). A real logic fail. I’m not going to waste the time to see what kind of government cheese is involved.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-12 17:42:44

the article says wind and solar with storage is six times the cost of combustion turbine.

BS, where are you reading this. Here is what I see:

Of course, it would be fair to point out that solar and wind are not a true replacement for coal because they only run intermittently. So, the really big news from the Xcel solicitation was the more than 100 bids that also included storage. Storage can be expensive but in the Xcel responses, the average bid for wind+storage came in at 2.1 cents and solar+storage was 3.6 cents per kilowatt hour.

Yes, 3.6 cents per kilowatt hour for solar + storage is the same as the marginal cost of operating a coal plant. Xcel did not provide details on how much storage was included in the bids so it’s likely that true 24/7 electricity would require more storage than was bid.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-12 18:32:17

Look at the image of the “public document”. The thing with magic marker black outs. See line 1. Compare to the lines below.

Combustion turbine is conventional. Solar/wind is many multiples. Supposedly these are bids to build. No links to serious articles.

They are comparing marginal cost to operate a coal plant with only the bid price on building solar/wind plant. It is apples to oranges and more over the top cheerleading than a simple show of facts. A real puff piece. This sort of stuff hurts my engineering head.

It is also ironic that Colorado is a coal mining state and that the solar stuff is from China and manufactured with coal fired plants. So they will put their own people on unemployment and have zero impact on the global coal usage, probably make it go up. Some people will make money though.

Comment by Obama Goons
2018-02-12 16:28:05

Sounds like Asia can use a little global warming.

Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-12 19:47:06

Yup, it gets downright chilly in Korea! Been there, done that.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-02-12 21:16:36

I’ve been in Harbin (a little north of North Korea and a little west of Vladivostok) since the weekend. Below zero most of the time and the local entertainment is hanging around outside for hours at a time. Freezing my butt off…and I brought a LOT of winter clothes. But the hotel is warm. Nice heated floors in the bathroom.

Comment by jeff
2018-02-12 13:02:38

Al Gore speaks at Tufts about the world’s climate future

By Eddie Samuels / medford@wickedlocal.com
Posted Feb 9, 2018 at 12:48 PM


But first failures from Al Gore’s previous predictions about the world’s climate future.

Wind, ice and cold are making this Olympics too wintry


PYEONGCHANG, South Korea (AP) — The Winter Olympics are supposed to be cold, of course. Just maybe not THIS cold.

Wind and ice pellets left Olympic snowboarders simply trying to stay upright in conditions that many felt were unfit for competition, the best ski jumpers on the planet dealing with swirling gusts and biathletes aiming to shoot straight.

All around the games, athletes and fans are dealing with conditions that have tested even the most seasoned winter sports veterans.

Low temperatures have hovered in the single digits, dipping below zero with unforgiving gusts whipping at 45 mph (70 kph) making it feel much colder. Organizers have shuffled schedules, and shivering spectators left events early.


Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-12 13:41:49

Owl Gore is the biggest hypocrite out there when it comes to the environment. The guy is one massive carbon footprint. Why does the media fail to call him out on it?

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-12 13:46:49

Some animals are more equal than others.

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-12 14:21:40

But, but, but, his 10k square foot house is LEED certified and he purchases carbon offsets! That makes it OK…right?

Comment by oxide
2018-02-12 14:51:04

LEED does not have absolute requirements for being certified LEED. Instead, they judge you on using “20% less water” or “20% more efficient lighting.” More efficient than what?

Al Gore, of all people, should be living in a Tiny House.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-12 15:37:04

You are dead on right. LEED certification is basically a checklist that gets you points–if you get enough points, you get “certified LEED”.

Energy efficient windows? Check.
Greywater system for landscaping? Check.
Solar panels? Bonus points.

One can live in a 40,000 square foot, LEED certified house. That doesn’t make it environmentally friendly.

Comment by Oxide
2018-02-12 17:35:10

I took a class on LEED a few years ago. The most disheartening was that the building community had little interest in green renovation or improvement in old buildings. It was all new new new.

The most environmentally friendly building is the one that’s already built.

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-12 18:21:23

The most environmentally friendly building is the one that’s already built.

I agree 100%. The main issue with old buildings occurs when they are functionally obsolete. New distribution buildings are 36 feet (or taller) for very high stacking. Older buildings have much less space when accounting for the lower ceiling height. You may have a cheap old building that stays empty, when new, expensive buildings get leased–because your old building doesn’t have the necessary features.

And I wouldn’t be all that disheartened. Experienced building owners understand how to evaluate energy-saving improvements.

At a 10% cap rate, $1 per annum saved = $10 in building value. At a 7.5% cap, $1 saved = $13.33 in value. And at a 5% cap, $1 saved = $20 in value.

You can save money by going to LED lighting, drought resistant landscaping (and less watering), new AC units (rather than constantly repairing the old…and paying higher utility bills).

But you won’t see the owners touting any LEED certification…they don’t care to spend the money on certification, because it doesn’t pay–also because MOST tenants could care less…they just want to make sure the space is reasonably priced, and functional.

But these energy saving and money saving improvements happen all the time to existing buildings nevertheless.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-12 13:04:05

“It now emerges that the last four years of Julian Assange’s effective imprisonment in the Ecuadorean embassy in London have been entirely unnecessary. In fact, they depended on a legal charade.

“Behind the scenes, Sweden wanted to drop the extradition case against Assange back in 2013. Why was this not made public? Because Britain persuaded Sweden to pretend that they still wished to pursue the case.”


Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-12 13:39:21

With pressure from the US, too, I’d bet…

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-12 14:04:57

Bitcoin energy use in Iceland set to overtake homes, says local firm
By Chris Baraniuk Technology reporter
Nearly 100% of energy in Iceland comes from renewable sources

Iceland is facing an “exponential” rise in Bitcoin mining that is gobbling up power resources, a spokesman for Icelandic energy firm HS Orka has said.

This year, electricity use at Bitcoin mining data centres is likely to exceed that of all Iceland’s homes, according to Johann Snorri Sigurbergsson.

He said many potential customers were keen to get in on the act.

“If all these projects are realised, we won’t have enough energy for it,” he told the BBC.

Comment by azdude
2018-02-12 16:38:53

i guess they came out with a cornhole coin.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-02-12 15:59:20

Mountain View, CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY On Record High Housing Inventory


Comment by Ben Jones
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-12 18:13:36

Yes, interesting thank you.

A bit of strong conclusions based on assumptions. I hope that good people will stay the course on this and that truth will surface. Then I hope for the lamp posts and a cleaning of the stables.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-12 19:27:17

Yes, indeed, I would guess that by the time all this ends, the FBI and DOJ will wish they never heard of Russia. The drumbeat to dissolve the FBI gets louder every day.

It gets even better. The desperate Buzzfeed, who published the “dossier”, is getting the peewadden sued out of them by a Russia tech executive and by Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen and is secretly scrambling to verify the dossier:


They’ve hired a real crackerjack ex-FBI agent to do the lyin’ and verifyin’. Maybe they should’ve done that BEFORE they published it. I’m sure this former G-man will be just as successful as his former co-workers. Because:

“They can hire Nancy Drew, Encyclopedia Brown, or Sherlock Holmes – you can’t find what doesn’t exist,” Fray-Witzer wrote to FP. “There is a simple reason why Buzzfeed hasn’t found any evidence to support the allegations in the Dossier against Mr. Gubarev: the allegations are false.”

And then there’s this:


Members of the FBI and DOJ are under criminal investigation.

I just want to see some real perp walks and long incarcerations. I don’t believe in torture and the death penalty.

Funny how this started as a “Trump-Russia” investigation and is ending up at a FBI-DOJ-Obama Administration trifecta. Produced by the Clinton Crime Family. Like I said, to be an enemy of the Clintons is dangerous, to be a friend is fatal. Look what’s happening to all her partners in crime. And imagine if they all got locked up and she walked. Oh, the humanity!

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-12 19:43:44

My hand to god, the country would be better off with the (old time) Mafia in place of the FBI. At least the gangs would be off the streets and there’d be less graffiti.

And how stupid is Buzzfeed for hiring an ex-FBI agent to do the same dang think his former co-workers tried to do in the first place??? It just defies logic. I hope he’s charging them out the wazooooooooo!

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-12 20:12:15
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by jeff
2018-02-13 07:23:20

“Those following FISA-gate will find this interesting.”


At the end though wouldn’t those who would be reporting it be guilty of aiding and abetting?

Comment by azdude02
2018-02-12 17:28:23

I had to liquidate some holdings last week due to a margin call. I feel so ashamed.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-12 17:39:54

Well I’m sure whoever got your vintage collection of wine coolers appreciates the bargain.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-12 18:36:50

That’s so funny, I was reading an article about margin calls today and I immediately thought of you, dude.

Comment by oxide
2018-02-13 09:12:51

I got the Zima at a god prise *hic*

Comment by jeff
2018-02-12 19:00:10

“I had to liquidate some holdings last week due to a margin call. I feel so ashamed.”

Cheer up azdude

You’re not the first.

Meet the family who lost $100,000 when the Beanie Baby bubble burst

They actually go for more if they still smell like french fries.
(AP Images/Peter Barreras)

Rachel Feltman
August 13, 2013

When Chris Robinson’s father started collecting Beanie Babies, he thought he could use the eventual profits to pay for five college tuitions. Instead, he ended up spending upwards of $100,000 (Robinson’s estimate, based on average cost for each) for a collection of 20,000 stuffed animals that still sit in his garage.


Comment by palmetto
2018-02-12 20:01:24

Heh, I might have mentioned this before, but I know this couple who collected Hummels for years, only to have the bottom drop out of that market. True of most collectibles these days.

Comment by oxide
2018-02-13 07:22:29

Nobody wants knick-knacks anymore. And that’s all they are, knick-knacks. At best you only need 1 really nice decor item per room, and build the room around it.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by palmetto
2018-02-13 08:32:55

Got Thomas Kinkade prints? Lol.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2018-02-12 20:36:24

Englewood, CO Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Mortgage Meltdown Envelopes Denver Area


Comment by palmetto
2018-02-12 21:41:32

For those of you who wheenie-whine about Trump and the military, read this:


Feck you, Pence.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-13 07:47:24

Who moved my stock market rally, just when things were getting back to normal?

Comment by jeff
2018-02-13 07:58:58

Coyotes bedevil family in northwest Greenwich

By Robert Marchant Updated 4:58 pm, Monday, February 12, 2018

GREENWICH — Ilana Grady and her family have tried it all: cougar urine, air horns and a small baseball bat. They’ve made loud noises, waved their arms and made menacing gestures.

But three very persistent coyotes have made their home at the Grady residence off King Street in the northwest corner of town despite their efforts — and the shaggy canines have been making life miserable for the human family that lives there.

“With the air horn, now they just stare a me,” she said. “It got progressively worse, very fast. … You would think that a crazy red-headed woman running after them with a baseball bat would scare them away, but nooooooo.”


May I suggest

Air guns for javelina and coyote sized game

Sam Yang Big Bore 909S


Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-13 08:15:25

Coyotes are easy to get rid of around here. You just speak to one of the Mennonite farmers. They hold some kind of secret ritual in the middle of the night out in the woods and the Coyotes are simply gone.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-13 08:22:35

Hearing a pack of cackling hyenas go suddenly go silent is a beautiful thing.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-13 08:29:34

My sis used to live in a small shack on one of the larger estates in Greenwich many years ago. Coyotes lived on the land there near a pond. The mama coyote had a litter and you could hear the pups yipping from time to time. One night, gunshots. Bam bam bam! No more coyotes.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-13 08:53:57

“They’ve made loud noises, waved their arms and made menacing gestures.”

Wow, waved their arms and even made menacing gestures! And STILL the coyote come back!

What is one to do?

(What a bunch of flakes.)

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-13 09:04:31

Man vs coyote video …


Comment by jeff
2018-02-13 08:37:46

Nice portraits.

Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post