July 11, 2006

Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For July 11, 2006

Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.




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96 Comments »

Comment by flatffplan
2006-07-11 04:45:03

report by zip code- your hood
I’ll start 22151 off 6% since may 05

 
Comment by flatffplan
2006-07-11 04:47:42

CPI will bls change to home prices for 06-07?
great way to get inflation wiped off the books

 
Comment by DEWFL
Comment by Notorious D.A.P.
2006-07-11 05:08:51

$159K and we might talk. This poor sap is in for an expensive lesson.

 
Comment by scdave
2006-07-11 05:09:26

“reduced by $40,000!!! Seller is MOTIVATED to sell due to job relocation out of state”

Come Home Flipper ???

 
Comment by CentralBanker
2006-07-11 05:15:14

I read “Boca” and “Serenity” and started to wonder whether this was the Seinfelds selling?

Sereneity Now and Happy Festivus to all.

Comment by yensoy
2006-07-11 06:24:19

Yeah just my thoughts - serenity now, insanity later!

 
 
Comment by DEWFL
2006-07-11 05:39:57

Hmmm, built in 1982…

http://www.eflanli.com/VIP/properties/Windsong%2012827.htm

I’ll pass…

 
Comment by arroyogrande
2006-07-11 08:32:27

“CALL MARSHALL while its still for sale by owner!”

What, as opposed to later, when it’s for sale by the bank?

You buy an overpriced condo, and what do you get
Anther day older and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call me ’cause I can’t go
My condo’s become an REO…

 
 
Comment by Michigan Born and Phoenix Bound
2006-07-11 05:27:12

My area in Sterling Heights, MI down at least 10% from 2005. Even appraisals are coming in at 0% to -5% from 2001 prices.

 
Comment by dawnal
2006-07-11 05:29:21

For those who follow the Plunge Protection Team:

from BARRON’S:

Those Bond Bums
Barry’s Bulls Newsletter
5509 Monroe Rd., Charlotte, N.C. 28212

June 30: No one buys a bond anymore for the interest coupon. The reality is that the bond market is dominated by big purchasers like banks and government entities that are only interested in currency manipulation and market contrivement. They are not investors per se. Now, [stocks are] under the same spell. If the economy is as good as the government says and the stock market is such a great place to put money, why so much need for intervention? I have to believe that when investors spot real values, they buy them. Investors don’t need government meddling to coax them into asset acquisition. Else, we lose our balance.

Speaking of balance, did you check out Thursday, June 29? Yeah, the Fed raised the fed-funds rate to 5.25% as everyone expected. Naturally, the markets exploded higher. That’s right — higher rates from the Fed instigated a huge market rally. Don’t bother me with slowing housing numbers, inflation concerns, $73-per-barrel oil, pension elimination, Iraq, North Korea, budget deficits, consumer debt or any other piece of trivia. Sure, there are still some good things going on, but all that matters is the wall of money that floods the market on magical days like [these].

Which sectors did best? Does it matter? They were all up. Every ETF on the planet was up…Why would you buy a five-year U.S. Treasury at 5.1% when the fed-funds rate went to 5.25%? This is the new era, baby! Thanks, Santa…uh, I mean Ben! What do we do now?
– Barry Ferguson

Comment by GetStucco
2006-07-11 05:54:20

Speaking of intervention, look at the bungee-jump that TOL’s share price did on the open this morning. Strange to see the price drop straight down, then bounce right back up, especially since, as TxChick has pointed out, all bad news is “priced in.”

http://tinyurl.com/mkgqg

Comment by txchick57
2006-07-11 06:04:56

It is for now. I mean, take a look at those charts. They’re waterfalls.

Comment by rent2home
2006-07-11 09:58:13

Waiting to hear from you how someone like can reasonably profit from the on going and coming change. Nothing is sure, but anything that may work? Anybody Please post as well. Thanks.

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Comment by txchick57
2006-07-11 10:12:14

You can SLOWLY scale into puts on the big financials. Slowly being operative term, as they are in a topping process which may take awhile yet to complete and you don’t want to deploy all your capital for this play at once. Or you could use the BKX as a proxy. You must go long dated on this too for maximum effect.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-07-11 05:29:45

Listings/sales have already been reduced 5/10% in my neighborhood and the current listings are just sitting .One guy has had his house on the market vacant for a year .The guy has hired 4 different real estate companies so far ,(but won’t reduce his price ).

Comment by scdave
2006-07-11 05:42:00

Where’s your hood Wizard ??

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-07-11 06:55:33

Its a 55 or older tract on a golf course about a hour and1/2 from LA.( I sold out in 2005 from a home in Valencia and repurchased for a quarter of my prior home price with retirement in mind ). The current house will go down in value ,but I’m staying long term after putting 50% down and getting the fixed note .

If I had it to do over again ,I would of rented for a while until the market corrected .
I held the last house for 23 years and went thru all kinds of up and down cycles ,but didn’t care because I purchased for long term use and I could afford the payments .

Comment by DEWFL
2006-07-11 07:22:44

“I held the last house for 23 years and went thru all kinds of up and down cycles ,but didn’t care because I purchased for long term use and I could afford the payments”

Now that’s what I thought homes were for!!!!

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Comment by arroyogrande
2006-07-11 08:37:57

“I’m staying long term after putting 50% down and getting the fixed note .”

That is so “old school”. Ever heard of equity extraction, leverage, Other People’s Money? This is The New Economy, remember? Just like before the dot-com bust…

Are you 1 1/2 hours N, S, or E fo LA?

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Comment by Desmo
2006-07-11 10:52:56

Valencia is 30 miles North of L.A., please ask in miles because out here hours in traffic could be 10 miles, 15, miles, etc. I also sold in Valencia, (91354-10/5) after owning the same house since 88. I am now renting and watching the market deteriorate. But read the local papers and go to open houses and everything is great! By the way it is getting so bad that the local paper, The Signal, has just stopped reporting on RE.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-07-11 14:56:41

Well Desmo ,you got out in time ,good move .

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by JA
2006-07-11 05:31:09

Whose more F’d, the borrower or the lender?

Will borrowers figure out a way to walk away despite the new laws?
Will lenders be able to really go after people or will the costs just be too great?

Comment by CentralBanker
2006-07-11 05:33:52

Borrow 100K, it is the borrower’s problem.

Borrow a few trillion, it is the bank’s problem.

 
Comment by memphis
2006-07-11 08:07:15

Debts have a way of surviving even if lenders don’t.

I think I can answer your question with a question: What is and will continue to be the growth industry for the rest of this decade?

Comment by ml in fl
2006-07-11 14:35:54

Anything the media (and or controlling party) can put spin on. It’s just not that real anymore.

 
Comment by Mike in Pacific Beach
2006-07-11 15:04:19

Repo men!

 
 
 
Comment by Arwen U.
2006-07-11 05:40:19

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/10/AR2006071001123.html

N.Va. Home Assessments Expected to Hold Steady
End of Large Jumps A Blow to Budgeters

Well, it shouldn’t be. Appalling how many drank the kool-aid.

Comment by bacon
2006-07-11 07:01:52

did you catch the advertisement piece yesterday in the Express (the daily free mini-WashPost that litters the metro)? and who says ad revenue won’t get your crap hocked in the local paper…

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/10/AR2006071000729_2.html?nav=hcmodule

i was embarrassed for WashPost after reading this w/ classic quotes such as “buy now before rates go up”, “it’s a buyer’s market”, and “the market is really hot”.

it also really trumpets Joule which has 400k 1 bedrooms literally WRAPPED AROUND a gas station. actually that’s a good pic for the bubble scrapbook. have to get my digital out this weekend!

 
Comment by swimming
2006-07-11 07:54:23

Didn’t Ben post an article awhile back that said houses in Falls Church (N. Va.) are ROUTINELY selling at 10% BELOW their assessed values?

 
 
Comment by eastcoaster
2006-07-11 05:44:03

Not sure if anyone posted about this yet: http://tinyurl.com/gyfru. That real estate rage is building…

Comment by Sold at peak
2006-07-11 05:54:50

A bit out of line, I think. These vicious attacks are crimes of opportunity, not rage against the real estate machine. I doubt the poor woman fell victim to first-time buyers unhinged by sticker shock. Instead, as open houses became more common over the past five years, criminals learned they offered perfect crime scenes, with easy, defenseless prey out of sight and away from help. That’s true whether this woman was killed by a drug addict robber or someone with a personal grudge.

Comment by eastcoaster
2006-07-11 06:13:05

I don’t really think this was the work of an angry would-be buyer. I just mentioned real estate rage again because of all the discussion a few days ago over anger/resentment when neighbors sell their homes at reduced prices.

Though I do believe this bubble has the tendency to create volcanic-like stress among all players - renters, owners, buyers, and sellers. And if someone is loose enough of a cannon, well who knows what they’re capable of doing…

Comment by AZgolfer
2006-07-11 06:48:14

I could see someone who paid 400K for a pre construction house and by the time it is built and ready to occupy, the builder is selling the same model for 300K to be pretty pissed off at the sales rep. It is amazing to me that RE agents “promise” increases in housing costs when fianancial people are careful never to do that.

I use to work for an Insurance company that would have uniformed guards in the lobby in case a injured worker was denied WC benifits and threatened the claims adjuster.

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Comment by scdave
2006-07-11 05:57:05

This is Brutal…..How about MANDATORY security camera’s in ANY new housing track showing model’s….A pitence of cost in return for some security for these sales reps (Mostly Women) in these model homes….

Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-07-11 07:13:01

Yep, a top notch security system would be about $10K for a “new home discovery center”.

Pretty cheap compared to what they are selling.

 
 
Comment by Arwen U.
2006-07-11 05:58:49

This happened in Northern VA a few years ago (model home reps killed). It’s a very dangerous job, sitting in an empty house all alone. Most builders put two together to try to mitigate some of the risk. A real estate agent holding an open house for us was absolutely paranoid, pepper spray and all. She said clients would call and ask to see a remote place and you’re kind of in a Catch-22.

Comment by ml in fl
2006-07-11 14:33:12

You know this used to happen all the time in Kansas (I was only 19 and newly lisenced and this was happening everywhere.) Nothing is fun in a down or “way up” market, it makes fools of us all.

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2006-07-11 06:07:04

I did over the weekend. That had nothing to do with real estate. The woman was obviously killed by someone who knew her. But I thought it was pertinent as yet another of the pitfalls of that business (being a realtor) since so many of the female ones attempt to use sex appeal to sell. Not a good idea in the age of internet porn, etc. when you don’t know what kind of whackos are out there.

Comment by foreclose_me
2006-07-11 09:12:43

Uh.. Don’t you mean, now that you DO know what kind of whackos are out there.

On that note, how soon can we expect to see the wall-to-wall mass media coverage over the gang of Black college football players who raped the 11-year old Mexican girl?

Comment by holgs
2006-07-11 10:52:22

On that note, how soon can we expect to see the wall-to-wall mass media coverage over the gang of college football players who raped the 11-year old girl?

Same amount of information, not as much racism…

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Comment by mmrtnt
2006-07-11 11:34:27

Wow, what a terrible job of reporting. This story is on a television news website in Dallas-Fort Worth, but the city of the crime is never mentioned.

The reporter does mention “Conch Train Dr”. Maybe we’re just supposed to Google it if we want more information?

Then, the reporter starts talking about the “Frisco” police. There must be a town called Frisco, TX near Dallas. They can’t be talking about San Francisco, right? Is Conch Train Dr. in Frisco?

It’s one thing for a local news story on TV to assume people are familiar with streets and locations, it’s an entirely different situation for a “news” organization to put a story on a world-accessible website and just assume everyone knows where the hell Conch Train Dr is.

MjM

 
Comment by Mike in Pacific Beach
2006-07-11 15:07:34

Her realtor friends where her body was found will drum it up “come see this home featured in many high profile newspapers!”

 
 
Comment by Sly_Ace
2006-07-11 05:58:08

Housing bubble alive and well in Las Vegas. I was in Vegas weekend before last and I asked the taxi driver if he thought they had built too many condos. I was floored by his reply: I should buy now with the intent of flipping before I have to take possession, preferably one of the penthouses because that will make me the most money. He knows, because friends/relatives of his have done it in Vegas AND in Naples, FL (four condos there, all worth hundreds of thousands more than what they paid). I guess I need to get out more and stop reading this blog for my info.

Comment by DEATH_SPIRAL
2006-07-11 06:06:02

This idiot should stick to driving a taxi.

Comment by LJR
2006-07-11 06:48:03

He will. Not to worry.

Comment by sleepless_in_seattle
2006-07-11 10:18:42

No different than the stock bubble when taxi drivers are giving stock tips..hahaha

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Comment by Peggy
2006-07-11 11:29:34

I just returned from a two-week vacation in Vegas. My husband has already moved there for job purposes, and I will be joining him by the end of the year. Although we are currently renting because of the move, for the past 20-plus years we have owned our own home, and we’ve had no mortgage for over a decade now.

(Before you get the wrong idea, let me say that we both have very modest salaries, and our first mortgage loan was at 13.5 percent interest. We didn’t do anything fancy like flipping our way into equity. We religiously paid extra each month and refinanced whenever rates dropped enough to warrant it. After many years, we owned the house.)

Old habits die hard, and despite our gut feel that renting is the right choice for us right now, we just had to take a look at SFH in Vegas. I mean, you cannot believe everything you read, right?

Well, maybe you can. Here’s my first-hand report:

I cannot speak to the downtown or Strip market. We didn’t look there because my husband’s office is located in the NW suburbs, just outside Summerlin.

The SFH market in Summerlin is completely dead. There is a lot of inventory, but there are no lookers, let alone buyers. At the Open Houses that we attended, we were the only people to sign in. This was true regardless of how late we went (in one case, just a half hour before the Open House ended) and regardless of which day we attended. Same for The Lakes and Spring Valley (two older NW suburbs that are closer to the Strip than Summerlin).

Aliente in North Las Vegas is even worse. There are literally For Sale signs everywhere. In many neighborhoods, it appeared that the current owners must have just purchased because there were brand new houses for sale on the same street with multiple resales–and street lights were not yet even installed. Definitely a lot of flipper wanna be’s in Aliente.

SFH in Henderson (SW of LV) seems to be better than Aliente but no better off than Summerlin. Tons of For Sale signs and no buyers to be found. At a barbecue that we attended there, one Henderson homeowner told us point blank that this is not the time to purchase in either LV or Henderson. He said that although he loves living in Henderson, he would not purchase there right now because he believes that the housing is very overpriced and prices are going to drop.

We even spoke with a realtor who was pretty candid, considering. She told us that if we planned to own the home for five years or more, she would recommend that we buy today in Las Vegas. Otherwise, she recommended that we rent for now and watch the market for a good time to buy.

In the end, we put our names on a waiting list for a larger apartment. We will not be buying in Vegas any time soon.

Comment by Peggy
2006-07-11 11:47:35

Oops…Henderson is actually southeast of Vegas, not southwest. Sorry!

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-07-11 17:15:42

Thanks for the report Peggy . Nice that the agent you were dealing with was the honest type . I use to own income property in North Las Vegas many years ago . I think it’s always a good idea to rent for a while when you move to a new town and it’s clear that Las Vegas is part of the bubble .

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Comment by Salinasron
2006-07-11 06:43:00

No bubble here in Salinas! I came home (rented house) to find two RE agents at the door wanting to list the property. Oh, you’re a renter, then let me sell you a property. Dah, did you see me walk up the driveway bent over backwards! Damn good looking women too.

 
Comment by mrquoi
2006-07-11 06:49:10

I would like to know more about what it takes to be a realtor. Can you be a realtor if you have been convicted of a felony? Misdemeanor? DUI? Does it matter if you have declared bankruptcy? Or if you have been foreclosed on in the past?

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-07-11 06:53:03

All you need to do is know how to spell your first and last name! Then LIE YOUR ASS ALL DAY LONG!

 
Comment by FLRenter
2006-07-11 07:00:44

No. You are given a full FBI background check, including finger printing. At least that is true in FL.

 
Comment by buddhaman
2006-07-11 07:40:19

Good looking and fake boobs help a lot…

 
 
Comment by KIA
2006-07-11 06:49:57

Yet another scenario has been presented to me, this time by a non-client so I can be a little more forthcoming. Party A bought a house in 2005 for $600k. Party A then gave $90k to his cousin, and his cousin bought the house using the cash for $850k six months later. I guess that was a 10% downpayment. The cousin then made no payments and got foreclosed last month. Net result: Party A absconds with $160k ($250k price difference less $90k for new loan). Nice, eh? A hundred and sixty grand for six months of deception. Maybe he has to split it with his cousin, but still…

Party A is also a foreign national using a very common combination of names. He and his cousin have allegedly left the country. There appears to be zero realistic chance of having them arrested for this fraud. I cannot help but wonder how common this type of practice is.

Comment by KIA
2006-07-11 06:54:39

Actually, answered part of my own question. There’s a New York conviction leading off the mortgage fraud blog here http://www.mortgagefraudblog.com/ so it’s apparently common and widespread. No idea on the total convictions or prosecutions nationwide, however.

Comment by novasold
2006-07-11 07:16:58

When will I cease to be amazed by this stuff.

Sometimes I think the majority of people are committing fraud of some kind with no problem at all.

Ugh.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-07-11 07:19:46

That’s why lenders use to check the sourse of the down payment on a purchase . What appraiser justified the higher price on the appraisal of 250K more in under a year ,( on a 10% down loan )? Whenever you see a transaction that occured so close to another sales date ,you have to do the double checks for fraud if your a lender . I really question what kind of underwriting has been going on because this one is obivious .

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-07-11 07:30:09

sorry …obvious not obivious . Damn need to edit before I post .

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Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-07-11 07:37:30

sorry…. source not sourse

 
 
 
Comment by Arwen U.
2006-07-11 09:23:55

PW County - I found this when researching an advertised foreclosure. Look familiar?

$697,537 3/6/2006 LONG BEACH MORTGAGE COMPANY XC
$845,000 9/2/2005 TREJO JAVIER
$784,000 4/21/2005 AMAN ZERLESHT

$250,000 11/27/1995 HARRIS DANIEL G TR
$86,700 11/27/1995 REIGHARD BARRY & ELIZABETH

Comment by KIA
2006-07-11 18:40:58

Interesting! The amounts look similar but the names don’t match my folks. I now strongly suspect this scenario has been repeated enough times to cause some serious long-term damage to the industry. A few hundred thousand here, a few hundred thousand there and pretty soon you’re talking about real money…

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Comment by Mike in Pacific Beach
2006-07-11 15:18:17

Its even worse when its a US Citizen, and even worse when its your Congressman!

http://tinyurl.com/8psmn

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2006-07-11 07:06:48

Gee, you bring me back to one of my favorite topics/points of this bubble vs. the past one. The influence of foreigners who would not have even been in this country during the last one, much less participating on the scale in which they have. I wish I had a dime for every story I read last year and the year before about people from Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, etc. coming to the U.S. with “nothing” and ending up “owning” 20 houses. If that alone wouldn’t be a good argument for ending this open door immigration policy, I can’t think of a better one.

Comment by foreclose_me
2006-07-11 09:17:56

All the better reasons are taboo.

 
Comment by auger-inn
2006-07-11 12:26:54

Better get used to the immigrants
http://www.humaneventsonline.com/article.php?id=15809
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueAdeZuns3A
http://www.eagleforum.org/column/2005/july05/05-07-13.html
Looks like the federal gov’t has different plans than “we the people” out here in the trenches.

Comment by CA renter
2006-07-12 01:06:42

Auger,

Isn’t that scary? And they wonder why we aren’t so gung-ho patriotic anymore. To what or whom do we pledge allegiance? The U.S. Govt? They couldn’t care less about what the US citizens think. Seems we’re being lied to and exploited more and more these days. Hope the U.S. citizens wake up someday…before it’s too late.

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Comment by mrquoi
2006-07-11 07:42:33

A few days ago Ben posted about the housing bubble in Salt Lake City, my former home town. Utah happens to be the nation’s #1 state for fraud and bankruptcy (1 in ~36 families!, nationally its 1 in 72, which is still appalling) and you can bet your bippie that there are large families who are milking this thing for all it’s worth.

Comment by vioviv
2006-07-11 08:21:16

This is absolutely true. The FBI’s biggest white collar crime field office is not in NYC as you might expect, but in Salt Lake City. It’s a Mormon thing. Mormons tend to be very trusting inside their tight-knit social groups and families, so all it takes is one bad apple to con a bunch of friends and family.

 
 
Comment by nhz
2006-07-11 08:12:19

in the Netherlands this trick is used too, usually for expensive properties. The official buyer is always someone with zero money (on social security etc.) who gets the property using fraudulent paperwork that shows they have a high income etc. Sometimes there are many similar deals in the same area, always from the same RE brokers etc.

After a year or so it ends in foreclosure and the bank (mortgage owner) has to eat the losses. The brokers and lawyers who organise this are usually clever enough to discard the paperwork and forget all the details. Some of the crooks were taken to court a few years ago, but (as far as I know) no one has been convicted. Probably the banks are afraid that the publicity may encourage other people to try this get-rich-quick scheme…

 
Comment by arroyogrande
2006-07-11 08:51:32

Weren’t S & Ls doing this on a large scale before the S & L collapse? I think it was called dead horse trading, where two S & L’s would keep buying the same piece of property from each other, back and forth, to bid up the “book value” of the property. The one that didn’t have the property at the time would have a nice stack of cash, and the one that did have the property could count the book value of the property as part of their reserves, on which they could loan more money out on. And the best part was that the Federal Government was insuring the whole mess, so when the whole house of cards fell, it was the US Taxpayer that had to make up the difference.

I don’t know if the whole scheme was even illegal.

 
Comment by lizziebeth
2006-07-11 14:42:20

That is so funny! I am looking at a house in Bradenton, Fl that seems off. When I checked the tax records as I do for all properties I found something similar. Here’s the breadown.

Asking Price $999K House is empty
Current owner paid $899K on 8/31/05 bought from someone who
paid $748K on 8/16/05.

I wondered what kind of idiot would pay $150K more two weeks later. I thought that this was fishy! God help us! This is really worse than I thought!

I couldn’t attach the property listing. ANyone interested it’s in Bradenton Florida, Mls listing #314736 address 13325 Swallowtail DR.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-07-11 17:26:50

Now see ,if I was underwriting that deal , that would be a red flag to me ,and I would demand a back up appraisal and a fraud check .

Comment by KIA
2006-07-11 18:42:25

Ah, yes, but all of the prudent underwriters have been drummed out of the office. They’re “bad” for business, dont’cha know?

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Comment by CA renter
2006-07-12 01:10:12

I’ve seen a rather large number of these deals in San Diego County. Some houses were sold three or four times within six months. All for a good profit over the last sale. I was wondering if it was fraud. If so, there is going to be so much finger-pointing in the near future, as there’s fraud in every part of the transaction, it seems.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by JA
2006-07-11 07:39:10

The new housing futures.
Looking at the May ‘07 bid prices:

Metro Area, Current Index Value, May 07 Bid Price, % Diff

Boston, 177.61, 167.00, -5.97%
Chicago, 165.62, 160.00, -3.39%
Denver, 137.28, 130.40, -5.01%
Las Vegas, 233.78, 223.00, -4.61%
Los Angeles, 270.44, 261.20, -3.42%
Miami, 276.41, 257.20, -6.95%
New York, 213.53, 204.60, -4.18%
San Diego, 249.35, 241.20, -3.27%
San Francisco, 217.52, 201.60, -7.32%
Washington, 250.39, 237.00, -5.35%

 
Comment by Hoz
2006-07-11 08:20:39

Another country bites the bullet on the dollar.
If France bails on their dollar holdings expect major banks to follow.
From Bloomberg

Syria Plans to End Dollar Peg, Moves Half of Reserves to Euros
…Central bankers from Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Sweden and Finland have this year indicated they aim to diversify their reserves away from the dollar. The euro is appreciating this year after its first annual decline since 2001. It traded at $1.2750 at 12:27 p.m. in London today, from $1.1849 at the start of the year. …”

Comment by Hoz
2006-07-11 08:21:49

http://tinyurl.com/zc84f
I hate it when I forget the link.

 
Comment by sigalarm
2006-07-11 10:43:33

From reading this site I think I may be unique in thinking that these countries going Euro might be a bad thing for them in the long run. Could someone explain why the Euro is a more solid fundamental currency than the Greenback? I think this may have more to do with the petulent “we have the USA” game going around right now.

Comment by Hoz
2006-07-11 11:54:04

there are 2.7 trillion dollars floating overseas, the dollar issubject to a 40% correction.

 
Comment by JA
2006-07-11 12:06:50

A few possible reasons:
1. The growing debt, both personal and treasury
2. Our economy doesn’t really make much of anything except fancy financing and home building (which is about to end).
3. Looming pension crisis
4. Looming medicare crisis

Comment by MB Renter
2006-07-11 16:38:23

“2. Our economy doesn’t really make much of anything except fancy financing and home building (which is about to end).”

Music.
Movies.
Microcode.
High-speed Pizza Delivery.

(Hat tip to Neal Stephenson)

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Comment by sigalarm
2006-07-11 18:16:39

And Europe makes more? Look at the weak productivity and the socialist economies over there that are underwater in entitlements to non-producing workers.

Yeah, big upgrade.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by samk
2006-07-11 08:36:50

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/rfs/180736354.html

$515,000. 969 sq.ft. Window air conditioners. ~1/9 acre lot. Tile in the kitchen looks weird. Lovely view of the neighbors’ fences and you get to keep the ca. 1976 appliances!

Comment by Michigan Born and Phoenix Bound
2006-07-11 09:40:04

I am so tired of listings that state they are priced to sell!

 
Comment by Kim
2006-07-11 13:39:14

If by weird you mean $hitty. I am continually amazed by the crappy renovation work done by a lot of flippers if shows like Property Ladder and Flip that House are any indication. And yet, by the end of each show, the half ass work still finds some hapless, clueless, witless (pick your adjective) rube who is willing to fork over a ridiculous amount of money.

 
Comment by LossAngeles
2006-07-11 14:30:50

Unbelievable. That’s a shoe box at best.

 
 
Comment by OB_Tom
2006-07-11 11:03:38

Does anyone know what going on with the credit unions in here San Diego? Some of them offer 6.5% (I think I even saw 7%) on 9 or 18 month CDs. Are they running out of cash or preparing for the big crash? I find it hard to imagine that my credit union would have a huge RE exposure, their mortgage and equity rates sucked last time I checked.

Comment by Good ol Bubble Butt
2006-07-11 18:42:17

Sounds high to me. I would think 6 percent would have many people flocking to deposit their money. From everything I have seen, rates on CDs for 9 to 18 months have been averaging 5.5 to 5.7 at the most.

Are you sure?????

Comment by OB_Tom
2006-07-12 13:04:10

The ads were in the business section of the UT again today. More on Sundays. My credit union pays max 5%, which makes sense. Maybe these CU’s have so many substandard loans that they have to get more deposits to make up for it?

 
 
 
Comment by easthawaii
2006-07-11 12:55:21

From Houston Chronicle article on interest rates, the great local economy will prevent any bubble burst in Houston. On the fed rate increases:

“A quarter-percent increase is not that big a deal,” said Barton Smith, head of the University of Houston’s Institute for Regional Forecasting. “But a whole string of quarter-percent increases is a big deal.”

Smith said that as small businesses gradually face increases in the cost of their lines of credit, they become more conservative. Multiplied by many businesses over time, that can stall the economy.

“I thought 5 percent was as high as we should go,” Smith said. “Monetary policy decisions come with a lag. We should let the dust settle a while.”

Those higher rates mean the monthly payment needed to buy a home is higher, which could have presented a problem for Stephen A. Mendel, a westside lawyer who bought a handful of houses as investment properties. But Mendel solved the problem by offering financing, and advertising to buyers with credit problems.

“I was fortunate to buy two years ago when rates were lower,” Mendel said. “I can handle a little negative cash flow, but not the level I’d have if I were buying now.”

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4038172.html

 
Comment by spacepest
2006-07-11 13:32:56

In the end, we put our names on a waiting list for a larger apartment. We will not be buying in Vegas any time soon.

Better yet, try looking for a SFH to rent instead of an apartment. I live in the NW Vegas, and it is now cheaper to rent a new construction home than it is to rent an apartment in that area. I’d imagine the rest of the areas in Vegas are getting to be the same, with so many flippers buying properties.

Yeah, sure, the SFH landlord may sell the home out from under you, but guess what…so will the apartment landlord. The last apartment I rented from went condo just like alot of other apartment complexes in Vegas.

As long as you have semi decent credit and employment already lined up in Vegas, renting a SFH should be easy. (Current home I’m in…$300K SFH for $900 a month rent, $1K deposit. Yes, its a desperate flipper property).

 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-07-11 23:29:31

Here is a very impressive piece of work. Kudos to whichever of the regulars here may have contributed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble

 
Comment by michael
2006-07-12 04:37:14

Kindergarten to Grad School Loans Boost Bond Market

“The cost of education has been increasing significantly while the level of federal loans and grants has been fairly static,” said Jack Kopnisky, chief executive officer of Boston- based First Marblehead Corp., which bundles debt into bonds. “Private student loans fill that gap.”

The company last month reached a three-year agreement with a unit of Fairfield, Connecticut-based GE to make private student loans. GE will offer financing for students attending programs from kindergarten through graduate school, and will market the loans through the Internet and direct mail.

“These parents are really boxed in,” says Amadio, the school’s head. Families earning between $80,000 and $120,000 are taking on debt for private education because it may help their kids land spots at top colleges. “Paying this type of tuition is a hard sacrifice,” he says.

Here’s a place for mortgage brokers to go. If you can’t load them up with bubble house loans, switch to private school loans.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aGpmlypWJ3tI&refer=exclusive_to_bloomberg

 
Comment by stcamp
2006-07-12 04:49:25

I have been reading this blog for a few months now and it is really great. Lately I have been thinking about what would happen should housing drop 30%, foreclosures etc. Something I was told once came to mind “Be careful what you pray - you might get it.”

What effect would this have on my area? My family?

My Family:
Member1: Both work processing contractor paperwork in Phoenix. 2 kids, one with health problems.
Member2: Unemployed. Husband is a financal advisor (yes, a sleaze)
Member3: Gov. software contracter but husband runs a furniture delivery service and was just diagnosed with cancer. 4 kids.
Member4: Comercial Real Estate attorney. Husband attorney. Just bought a huge house. 2 kids.
The other 2 should be ok.

I think that it is obvious that if everything does happen adults, and their kids will pay. Notice none of them (except one) have ever flipped a house.

I was going to write about what it would do to my area as far as unemployment but I think I have gone on enough…

Stcamp

 
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