February 20, 2018

Trouble Cooking In Paradise

A report from the Globe and Mail in Canada. “The Toronto housing market’s rotten January has thrown a scare into veteran mortgage broker John Cocomile. A lot of Mr. Cocomile’s business in recent years has been mortgage refinancings. What worries Mr. Cocomile is that the latest developments in housing make it much harder to refinance. This could be the year debt gets messy. A big reason why Toronto home sales fell 22 per cent compared with January, 2017, was the introduction of new mortgage regulations designed to make the housing market more stable going forward. The rules include a stress test that applies to anyone with a mortgage that isn’t insured against default.”

“At Mr. Cocomile’s office, a lot of people are flunking the test. He’s had 10 people contact him about refinancing this year who did not end up qualifying. ‘All 10 would have qualified a year ago,’ he says. Meanwhile, debt loads are getting heavier to carry. The Bank of Canada has increased its trend-setting overnight rate three times since last summer.”

“‘People could refinance because the value was there,’ Mr. Cocomile said. ‘They call me and say, ‘My neighbour’s house just sold for $1.7-million, can I pull some equity out? I want to do a refi.’ Toronto real estate’s rotten January suggest people may be a bit disappointed in what their homes are worth now. The price of detached homes in the city fell 9 per cent on a year-over-year basis, even as condo prices rose 14.6 per cent. Mr. Cocomile finds that home appraisers are reacting to the current environment by getting more conservative with their assessments of how much homes are worth.”

From the Daily Mail on the UK. “The asking price on one the country’s most expensive houses will be slashed after it was put into receivership. Cresswell House in Chelsea, West London, will have its price almost halved as the high-end property market continues to suffer. The home - which sits in the the exclusive Boltons enclave - will be put up for £20.1million after it was originally priced at £37.5million.”

From Bloomberg on the UK. “London’s property market has moved out of its boom phase and home sellers need to be more realistic about their price demands, according to Rightmove. ‘End-of-the-boom prices normally readjust more quickly if there is an over supply,’ Miles Shipside, Rightmove director, said in the report. However, ’some would-be sellers are holding back, preventing a glut of competition from forcing prices downward,’ he said. For those who need a fast sale, Shipside’s advice is to ’sacrifice some of the substantial price gains of the last few years.’”

From Haaretz on Israel. “Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon finally got his wish in the last quarter of 2017 as home prices fell, but he was soon under attack for risking a real estate slump and endangering government tax revenues. The Central Bureau of Statistics reported that home prices fell 1.2% in the fourth quarter. In the first regional breakdown of price trends, the CBS said Jerusalem led the quarterly decline, with prices slumping 5.1% from the third quarter.”

“Isaac Herzog, the Zionist Union MK and opposition leader, warned that slumping prices could undermine economic growth and dent tax revenues. ‘From the figures we have today, 50,000 unsold homes are sitting on the shelf,’ he said. ‘Contractors aren’t selling houses because they don’t want to lower their prices.”

“But Kahlon was he was sanguine. ‘Nothing will happen if there’s a big drop in home prices,’ he said. ‘We are seeing declines in the real estate market, which could bring a slowdown, but contractors’ profit margins are so large that they can afford to cede a little income.’”

“Builders are struggling to sell higher-end homes because buyers are now focused on cheaper properties, a phenomenon evidenced in figures released by the CBS: The average price of a home fell to 1.44 million shekels ($407,000 at current exchange rates) in the fourth quarter from 1.46 million in the third and the lowest level since the end of 2015. In Tel Aviv, the average price was 2.7 million shekels in the quarter, a 2.5% decline and the lowest since the second quarter of 2016.”

From Standard Digital in Kenya. “The artistic impressions and marketing lingo used on websites and brochures of Kenya’s surging gated communities can easily be confused with what paradise is supposed to look like. But hidden behind the high walls and big gates is trouble cooking in paradise, and signs are starting to appear. On Friday, 119 houses at Kitisuru Gardens in Kiambu went under the hammer after their developer, Homex Housing, faced difficulties in completing the project. An unspecified amount of money which prospective home buyers had paid through off-plan purchase went up in smoke.”

“At Kitusuru Gardens, the houses were valued at Sh10 million when the project began in 2012. Buyers paid Sh2 million to book the units courtesy of the plans they were shown. ‘They changed the designs of the houses mid-way and moved some units from where they were originally located. Then the dates of handing over the houses kept on changing,’ one buyer told Weekend Business. ‘Furthermore, some amenities in the brochure including a swimming pool, a club house and convenience shop suddenly disappeared,’ said the buyer.”

“Those in the know say Homex Housing had over-stretched itself by doing several projects at the same time, which caused cash flow issues. But the problem is not unique to Homex. Around Nairobi, a number of developers are struggling to finish their gated community projects on time as they battle problems ranging from inadequate finances, undelivered promises and unavailable buyers. Meanwhile, completed projects are taking longer to fill, throwing developers into a public relations and credit repayment nightmare. As international magazine Quartz recently put it, ‘Nairobi built shiny new business districts but not enough tenants have shown up.’”

From ABC News in Australia. “The Reserve Bank has warned that a wave of interest-only mortgages sold when standards were more lax and due to expire in the next four years may put borrowers into financial stress. RBA assistant governor Michele Bullock said the investor loans, made before a tougher regulatory approach was imposed in the recent years, were being monitored closely to ensure they don’t impact overall financial stability.”

“‘There is still a large stock of housing debt out there, some of which probably would not meet the more conservative lending standards currently being imposed,’ Ms Bullock said. Ms Bullock said the large proportion of interest-only loans set to expire between 2018 and 2022 was of particular concern. ‘There may, however, be some borrowers that do not meet current lending standards for extending their interest-only repayments but would find the step-up to principal and interest repayments difficult to manage,’ Ms Bullock said.”

“On APRA and RBA figures, by the end of 2017 roughly 40 per cent of outstanding mortgages did not require principal repayments, while the mortgage-to-debt ratio had risen to 140 per cent from 120 per cent five years earlier. ‘If housing prices were to fall substantially, therefore, such borrowers [with high LVRs] might find themselves in a position of negative equity more quickly than borrowers with an equivalent starting LVR that had paid down some principal,’ Ms Bullock noted.”

“Given investors were more likely to sell their rental properties in times of falling prices to minimise the their capital losses, Ms Bullock said this could quickly flow into the broader economy. ‘This might exacerbate the fall in prices, impacting the housing wealth of all home owners,’ she said. ‘As investors purchase more new dwellings than owner-occupiers, they might also exacerbate the housing construction cycle, making it prone to periods of oversupply and having a knock on effect to developers.’”




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161 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-20 08:53:08

‘There is still a large stock of housing debt out there, some of which probably would not meet the more conservative lending standards currently being imposed’

‘He’s had 10 people contact him about refinancing this year who did not end up qualifying. ‘All 10 would have qualified a year ago’

Quite the trend. Ah, the loans will probably be alright. I’m sure no one paid too much.

Comment by azdude
2018-02-20 09:23:19

Is it easier to get a HELOC vs refinancing. Seems when u refinance its like trying to get a loan all over again. How much b@nker @ss do u have to kiss?

Comment by Jingle Male
2018-02-20 18:31:56

The HELOC I got from Wells Fargo a year ago was a miserable, lengthy full doc experience. The LTV on my first mortgage is 50% LTV and I was adding 15% of value with the HELOC. My FICO is 800+, but it still took about 45 days and tons of paperwork. The rate was good at 1.99% for the first amount borrowed, then 3.99% thereafter.

The irony is I paid it completely off in December and probably won’t use it anymore, since the interest is no longer deductible under the new tax laws.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-21 08:48:33

You’ve got to quite the accomplished any busy debt donkey to have a credit score of 800 I believe.

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Comment by drumminj
2018-02-21 20:25:57

You’ve got to quite the accomplished any busy debt donkey to have a credit score of 800 I believe.

????

I’ve had zero debt most of my life, none since 2008 (no mortgage or car payment) and my credit score has been at or above 800 for as long as I can remember.

What is it you’re trying to say here?

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-20 11:04:00

‘He’s had 10 people contact him about refinancing this year who did not end up qualifying. ‘All 10 would have qualified a year ago’

I wonder if rising mortgage interest rates might have something to do with that?

Will central bankers fire up the printing presses and start buying up debt again, inflation be damned?

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-20 11:42:15

It’s got nothing to do with rates, it’s probably because the house prices are rapidly falling and the people are either underwater or soon to be.

Comment by Lurker
2018-02-20 13:47:53

More than interest rates or home values, it sounds like the stress tests revealed borrowers didn’t have the income to sustain the refi/heloc payments. But last year they would have passed with flying colors, so it’s a standards thing.

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Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-20 17:59:19

Well, rising interest rates would make them fail stress tests.

But falling prices in GTA are no doubt a factor.

 
Comment by rms
2018-02-20 20:53:55

If a pill was introduced tomorrow that would extend your life for another ten years everyone’s credit worthiness would increase… debt slavery.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-02-20 09:01:34

Bethesda, MD Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Housing Correction Arrives In DC Area

https://www.movoto.com/bethesda-md/market-trends/

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-02-20 09:04:20

San Francisco has a serious problem with homelessness and illegal drugs:

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Diseased-Streets-472430013.html

Comment by azdude
2018-02-20 09:21:28

nothing new there. cesspool

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-20 09:33:42

“An NBC Bay Area Investigation reveals a dangerous concoction of drug needles, garbage, and feces lining the streets of downtown San Francisco. The Investigative Unit surveyed more than 150 blocks, including some of the city’s top tourist destinations, and discovered conditions that are now being compared to some of the worst slums in the world.”

Sounds just like a place which should have the most expensive real estate in the country, no?

Comment by ibbots
2018-02-20 11:26:17

Well, the area they surveyed is adjacent to the Civic Center which is homeless central. If they went out to Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, North Beach, etc., they might have different results.

As bad as slums in India? Right, this chick has never been to India.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-20 11:45:01

They’re pooping on the beach in India. At least high tide comes in and washes it all away every day. They’re pooping on the sidewalk in SF. That’s MUCH worse.

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Comment by ibbots
2018-02-20 11:52:37

I didn’t realize all of India was coastal…the things you learn on the internet!

from wiki: ‘In an attempt to stop city residents from urinating and defecating in public, a city council in western India is planning to pay residents to use public toilets.”

‘The State of Rajasthan became the first state in the country to make a “functional toilet” mandatory in the house of a contestant for contesting elections to Panchayati Raj institutions. ‘

In other words to be mayor, you gotta have a toilet in your house!

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-20 11:58:19

I must be missing something. What part of people pooping on the sidewalk in SF isn’t 3rd world?

 
Comment by ibbots
2018-02-20 12:08:26

Comparing what’s happening in SF to ’some of the worst slums in the world’ is a reach, 3rd world and disgusting for sure, but a far piece from the slums of India.

People practicing open defecation (% of population)
Country Percentage
India 40
Nigeria 26
Indonesia 12
Ethiopia 27
Pakistan 12
Niger 71
Sudan 27
S. Sudan 61
Eriteria 76

Like I said, if they went out to Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, North Beach, etc., they might have different results.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-20 12:45:15

I agree with ibbots. Last time I was in San Francisco, it was gorgeous. Truly an amazing place to live if you are wealthy and have money. Of course, the tenderloin area was still a bit sketchy, but even there it is nothing even remotely like India. It’s a bit of hyperbole to take the worst aspect of a city (like the Rio Grande homeless encampment in downtown Salt Lake City) and then compare that to the Bountiful foothills or the Draper mountainside mansions.

 
Comment by ironknee
2018-02-20 13:14:09

Bring in the third world, expect your society to become third world - happens without fail every where it occurs. Something about average IQs ~70 that cant develop a written language, much less industrialize and prefer to defecate in the open.

Lefttards love destroying society, its their favorite pastime - just look at the “art” they promote. It mirrors what’s found in the gutters of SF, any surprise?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-20 13:25:09

I must be missing something. What part of people pooping on the sidewalk in SF isn’t 3rd world?

My wife went to law school in SF in the late 90’s. She dodged poop on the street then as well.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-20 13:26:51

Sorry, not poop on the street…that would be 2nd world.

She was dodging poop on the sidewalk.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-20 13:34:42

It figures that all the SF people would jump in with all the excuses in the world. NEWSFLASH: Your city is in a shambles.

 
Comment by ironknee
2018-02-20 16:04:47

Another prediction: lefttards will print up bumper stickers and t-shirts that say “Pooping is not a crime”

They are, indeed, members of the Free Sh!t Army, so one should expect they also identify with the Sh!t Free movement.

 
Comment by Saltwater Catfish
2018-02-20 21:42:11

“People practicing open defecation (% of population)
Country Percentage
India 40
Nigeria 26
Indonesia 12
Ethiopia 27
Pakistan 12
Niger 71
Sudan 27
S. Sudan 61
Eriteria 76″

Is this the authentic origin of the ’sh!thole countries’ meme?

 
 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-20 11:46:04
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Comment by 2banana
2018-02-20 09:35:56

2banana’s Rule.

Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh!t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy

++++++

Based on the findings of the Investigative Unit survey, Riley believes parts of the city may be even dirtier than slums in some developing countries.

“The contamination is … much greater than communities in Brazil or Kenya or India,” he said.

Comment by oxide
2018-02-20 10:31:12

Do Brazil, Kenya, or India have the same drug problem? Those blood-spotted needles were frightening. Those needles have HIV, Hep A B C, and even worse, fentanyl or carfentanyl.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-20 12:18:12

‘2banana’s Rule’

Can’t say that on the intertubes. You are meddling in the election. The FBI is gonna call off the school shooting investigation to bring you in.

 
 
Comment by cactus
2018-02-20 13:17:48

We need to find a source of revenue,” said Ronen. “Whether that’s putting something on the ballot to raise business taxes or taking a look at our general fund and re-allocating money towards that purpose and taking it away from something else in the city.”

uh huh

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2018-02-20 09:18:43

When you wonder how we got the massive bubble in EVERYTHING 2009-2016.

+++++

Obama’s Real Debt and Deficit Legacy
Townhall.com | February 20, 2018 | Stephen Moore

The only time in half a century that the budget has been balanced was in the late 1990s, when Bill Clinton was president and the Republicans ran Congress. It was a good combination. We ran four straight budget surpluses from 1998 to 2001, and government spending dropped gloriously, from about 20 percent of GDP to 17.6 percent. No wonder the economy boomed in those years. Government was less of a drag.

My jaw dropped — literally — when I saw the chart. This takes data torturing to new heights. The national debt skyrocketed from $11 trillion to nearly $20 trillion on Obama’s watch.

The national debt nearly doubled in eight years, which makes Obama the runaway Olympic gold medalist for fiscal incompetence. On this score Obama’s record is by far the worst of any modern president.

Obama’s eight years in office:

2008 — 459

2009 — 1,413

2010 — 1,294

2011 — 1,300

2012 — 1,087

2013 — 680

2014 — 485

2015 — 438

2016 — 585

Here is some simple math for the Obama worshippers: $585 billion, the deficit at the end of the Obama presidency, is higher than $459 billion, the deficit at the beginning of the Obama presidency.

But Obama made the deficit hundreds of billions of dollars worse with a stimulus plan that by the administration’s own admission didn’t create a single new job. The number of jobs in 2009, 2010 and 2011 was lower than Obama’s economists predicted we would get if we had done nothing and not wasted $800 billion.

Obama’s failed presidency is being falsely lionized in other ways, as well. The new spin from the left is that Obama saved the U.S. from a second Great Depression, when in fact he gave America the weakest recovery from a recession since the Great Depression. He also left Donald Trump with an economy that was crawling at 1.6 percent — which is why many people thought we were headed into another recession.

Comment by Neuromance
2018-02-20 17:10:13

2008 — 459

2009 — 1,413

This was extracting from the society in no small part to make the FIRE sector whole.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-20 17:23:57

Come on 2banana, this is just terrible spin. You can do better than this. I know you detest Obama, but to say that Obama left Trump a weak economy is plain Orwellian doublespeak:

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/30/obamas-biggest-parting-gift-to-trump-may-be-the-economy.html

Looking at the deficit accumulated from 2008 to 2009 during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression is completely misleading. GDP and demand collapsed. Unless you are also willing to cut the military and social security/medicaid dramatically, of course you’re going to run major deficits when demand collapses. This isn’t rocket science. Quoting these types of numbers means you are disingenuous, ignorant, or both.

The real question is whether or not it is right to have over $1 trillion dollar deficits when GDP is at an all-time high. It’s understandable to run deficits when tax receipts are faltering, not now it seems the wrong thing to do.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2018-02-20 09:25:53

What happens in NYC and London doesn’t stay there…

Anyone left to buy the dip?

++++++

London’s Property Crash Has Begun
ZeroHedge - 02/20/2018

For the last two decades and more, the capital’s property market to all intents and purposes has behaved like a giant Ponzi scheme played on a global scale. Money from all over the world has poured into London bricks, inflating values unrealistically in relation to wages, while the lavish bonuses paid to European bankers working in the City have also stoked momentum responsible for pushing up, for example, the average price of a London semi-detached house by 553 per cent between January 1995 and November 2017, from £133,820 to £873,603.

Over the same period, the average cost of a detached house in the capital went from £257,748 to £1,453,271.

At last, however, the party is over. London property prices, now still flailing cartoonishly in mid-air despite being well over the edge of a cliff, are at the start of what we can call, for want of a better term, a death plunge. Although the carnage is only just beginning in earnest, desperate homeowners looking to sell are already dropping asking prices by tens of thousands of pounds and more. They know the tide is going out quickly.

According to the latest report by property data experts Molior London, sales of homes in the capital dropped by 20 percent in the last quarter of 2017. The report added some 15,000 recently completed luxury apartments remain unsold. For market watchers this is an amazing departure from the status quo, when London new builds were snapped up by global investors often before a brick had been laid.

Dr Eckart Woertz, an expert in Gulf economies and senior researcher at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, explains: “The low oil price means there is less money to invest. In fact, most Gulf countries are now repatriating money. Look at Saudi Arabia — they have repatriated $200bn of their foreign reserves.

And then there’s perhaps the most overlooked factor affecting the market: after years and years of being squeezed relentlessly, the indigenous London middle class, as it is in the wider UK, is largely skint. According to a recent survey by comparethemarket.com, a person in Britain is on average £8,000 in debt, not including mortgage repayments. Last June, the Bank of England announced UK unsecured consumer credit had gone over £200bn.

London’s property market has not “plateaued”, nor has growth “cooled”. London property values are right now dropping like a stone and there is little to break the fall. Whisper it: 2018 will be the year smug Londoners finally stopped boring on about basement and loft conversions at smart dinner parties.

By the late summer, these same people will be weeping hot tears into cold gazpacho starters and moaning to anyone who’ll listen about negative equity. At long last, the crash has arrived.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-20 12:48:54

My brother-in-law’s parents lived in London. Wealthy oil BP family. Brexiters to the max. We had some interesting conversations. They are definitely singing a different tune now. Talk about self-inflicted wound. The London property market was bound to correct anyway, but what the UK is doing is just foolish.

 
 
Comment by azdude
2018-02-20 09:26:49

I miss angello mozillo.

Comment by 2banana
2018-02-20 09:33:54

I think Jon Corzine still keeps in touch with him.

 
Comment by Puggs
2018-02-20 12:33:39

So does his former tanning salon.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-20 12:53:33

That nauseating human Cheeto should have been doing a perp walk over a decade ago.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2018-02-21 05:26:55

He certainly knew how to dispose of distressed properties: just keep cutting the price each month until it sells.

His tactics got me to buy a foreclosed Countrywide house ($680,000 loan) for $385,000 in 2008. I bought the same model in 2010 for $265,000, and another buyer paid $245,000 for the same model in 2012. I met that falling knife!

Watching the price drop every month on a house I wanted to buy kept me coming back to watch the action…..and make an offer at $125/SF.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2018-02-20 09:29:51

Ok. Let me do some math for the Toronto market.

$1,00,000 average sales price. Leverage income 10:1

Average loss of $90,000.

Those who purchased a house in the last year are fooked. Soon to be the last 2 years. Then 3 years.

No coming back at 10:1 price to income level.

++++++

The price of detached homes in the city fell 9 per cent on a year-over-year basis,

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-20 09:44:29

$1,00,000 average sales price. Leverage income 10:1

And no MID either.

Comment by azdude
2018-02-20 09:57:28

houses appreciate if u fix them

Comment by jeff
2018-02-20 10:37:37

“houses appreciate if u fix them”

azdude

I am sorry your only visible means of support is sucking money out of your shack.

Comment by azdude
2018-02-20 09:23:19

“Is it easier to get a HELOC vs refinancing. Seems when u refinance its like trying to get a loan all over again. How much b@nker @ss do u have to kiss?”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-20 10:51:40

I’ve been driving a lot lately and the cash-out refi ads on the radio are non-stop. Plus lots of those 30 minute to one hour infomercials about it. And west of Phoenix the mass shack construction has begun, zero down builder financing available!

 
Comment by azdude
2018-02-20 11:00:03

are they building out that 303 corridor now?

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-20 11:05:29

Yes, and beyond. All the way to Wickenburg. And this is west of that:

http://www.wickenburgranch.com/home-collections/

Shea Homes®

View the entire collection of Shea Homes®.

Square Footage: 1,500 – 3,000
Price: $200,000 – $900,000

 
Comment by somedewd
2018-02-21 05:26:44

Shea homes are a quarter step above pulte; total dogsh!t

 
Comment by oxide
2018-02-21 06:38:19

The design is dogsh!t too. They need 1200 sq ft to fit in 2 bedrooms. Big whoop. My block of Cold War ranches can fit 3/1.5 in less than 1000 sq ft.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-21 08:16:43

Hello my good friends.

Santa Clarita, CA Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/santa-clarita-ca/market-trends/

Comment by redmondjp
2018-02-21 11:40:19

Your only friends are living rent-free in your empty skull, Mortgage Watch.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-21 12:28:59

Boots on the ground data my good friend.

Big Pine Key, FL Housing Prices Plummet 9% YOY As Coastal Property Market Craters

https://www.movoto.com/big-pine-key-fl/market-trends/

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Comment by 2banana
2018-02-20 09:32:06

Guess who wins the waiting game?

Hint. The side NOT feeding the alligator every month.

++++++

‘From the figures we have today, 50,000 unsold homes are sitting on the shelf,’ he said. ‘Contractors aren’t selling houses because they don’t want to lower their prices.”

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-20 10:05:06

Are ever rising bond yields hammering your stock portfolio? I don’t know if the old rules of financial valuation still apply after the surreal experience of a decade of extraordinary accommodation, including Quantitative Easing and Zero Interest Rate Policy. But in case they do, an increase in the risk-free rate implies a decrease in the discount factors that apply to future returns on risk assets, like stocks and real estate. See if you can figure out the implications for the fundamental value of your risk asset HODLings.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-20 10:07:19

US Treasury yields rise as inflation fears linger; 2-year yield hits 2008 high
- Global yields jumped after Germany reported that the country’s producer prices came in hotter than anticipated last month.
- The U.S. Treasury is due to auction $51 billion in 13-week bills, $45 billion in 26-week bills and $55 billion in four-week bills.
Thomas Franck | Alexandra Gibbs
Published 6 Hours Ago
Updated 1 Hour Ago CNBC.com

The 2-year Treasury note yield hit its highest level in nearly 10 years after the release of hotter-than-expected inflation data and ahead of key Treasury auctions.

The 2-year yield topped 2.248 percent, its highest level since Sept. 22, 2008, when it yielded as high as 2.263 percent.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was higher at around 2.895 percent at 9:41 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was higher at 3.142 percent. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Comment by taxpayer
2018-02-20 12:32:32

when the 30yr hits 5% it’s so over
add the tax increases from your county an sht be gettin expensive,yo

Comment by oxide
2018-02-21 06:40:00

What if you own treasuries?

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Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-20 11:45:53

But in case they do, an increase in the risk-free rate implies a decrease in the discount factors that apply to future returns on risk assets, like stocks and real estate. See if you can figure out the implications for the fundamental value of your risk asset HODLings.

All else equal, higher rates will hit both bonds and assets like real estate.

However, if the reason for higher rates is greater rates of inflation, then unlike bonds (that generally have a fixed coupon), real estate will generally have income that rises faster with greater levels of inflation. Accordingly, the hit to real estate values will be less than the hit to bond values.

In other words, all else is not equal.

FWIW, historically, the correlation between cap rates (yields on real estate) and the 10-year interest rate (a good proxy for the yield on bonds generally) is approximately 0.5.

When prime was really high in the late 70’s/early 80’s, cap rates were less than prime rate. Investors saw real estate as a hedge against inflation…traditional bonds were not (and are not) such a hedge.

Of course if we see higher interest rates WITHOUT higher rates of inflation…well, then, real estate will get hit much harder than if there is inflation.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-20 12:53:19

And if there is deflation, then real estate could get pounded.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-20 21:59:54

“However, if the reason for higher rates is greater rates of inflation, then unlike bonds (that generally have a fixed coupon), real estate will generally have income that rises faster with greater levels of inflation. Accordingly, the hit to real estate values will be less than the hit to bond values.”

Noting that we have recently experienced years on end of double-digit home price increases during the Fed’s QE3 MBS purchase / mortgage interest rate suppression policy era against a backdrop of virtually nonexistent inflation, the positive correlation of real estate income to rising interest rates which you suggest seems doubtful. Deflating home prices in response to rising mortgage rates seems more likely, based on the “what goes up, must come down” theory of bubble unwind.

The Last Time U.S. Wage Growth Spurred Inflation Was in 1980s
By Sho Chandra
February 8, 2018, 11:51 AM PST
A worker straightens sale racks with post Christmas merchandise in 1985.
Photographer: The Denver Post/Getty Images

If history is any indication, an acceleration in U.S. wages is unlikely to spur inflation.

Nonetheless, a jump in worker pay last month played a role in roiling financial markets on concerns price pressures would eventually develop and prompt a faster pace of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes than anticipated.

Hourly earnings have grown 2.2 percent on average in this expansion. The average increase in the consumer price gauge that the Fed likes to monitor is 1.5 percent, still short of policy makers’ goal of 2 percent. In the previous two expansions, a surge in wages — sometimes topping 4 percent — failed to deliver or even coincide with a spurt in inflation, according to Joseph LaVorgna, Natixis chief Americas economist.

To find that link, one would have to go back to 1985, he said, adding that the correlation coefficient between wages and inflation since that time is “very low.”

Comment by oxide
2018-02-21 06:43:51

Wow check out that 1985 picture! Sale-rack clothing is $10-11 in 1985. In 2018, sale rack clothing is still $10-11. That’s whats globalization does…

By the way, that store is a Target. (look at the name tag on the employee)

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Comment by Hi-Z
2018-02-21 08:26:59

In 1985 it was made in usa.
In 2018 it is all made in china.

 
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-21 09:25:45

Only 1985 clothing was of higher quality which would last years and years. Today’s Chinese clothing is inferior in every way.

 
 
 
Comment by Saltwater Catfish
2018-02-20 22:24:55

Given epically high U.S. consumer debt levels, how can you be sure that rising interest rates won’t squeeze the typical renter’s housing budget constraint through a higher share of monthly expenditures on interest? The upshot is that rental demand, and real estate income, may just as easily fall as rise in response to rising rates.

 
 
Comment by cactus
2018-02-20 13:42:18

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-29/these-bond-bulls-say-they-ll-have-last-laugh-as-u-s-yields-soar

“On the surface, the economy looks very strong,” Hunt said. “But the structural supports to the economy — the pylons — are being eroded. They don’t collapse immediately; it takes time, but this is where the vulnerability comes in.”

One of the bulls’ preferred indicators lately is the declining U.S. savings rate. As a share of disposable income, it fell to 2.6 percent last quarter, the third-lowest on record. To Hunt and Delis, it signals that growth can’t last because consumers, which make up about 70 percent of the economy, will have less purchasing power in the future.”

Comment by rj not in chicago anymore
2018-02-20 16:19:44

So let me get this straight -”the structural supports to the economy — the pylons — are being eroded”

Isnt’ this also known as a structural collapse?
Nobody ever said the bond vigilantes were the sharpest knives in the drawer.

Rj not in Chicago anymore

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2018-02-20 22:08:18

The banksters are fattening up the debt donkey herd for the incipient slaughter.

Economy Economic Data
U.S. Households Shoulder Record $13.15 Trillion Debt to End 2017
- Strong confidence, rising wages bolster increase in borrowing for the 14th straight quarter
- U.S. consumers added $26 billion to credit-card balances in the fourth quarter.
Photo: Elise Amendola/Associated Press
By Eric Morath
Feb. 13, 2018 11:00 a.m. ET

U.S. households carry record levels of debt but appear well positioned to manage the burden with wages increasing and tax bills falling this year.

Outstanding household debt rose by $193 billion to $13.15 trillion in the final three months of 2017, completing the fifth straight year overall balances increased, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Tuesday.

Total debt was the most on record, though the figure wasn’t adjusted for inflation or population growth. As a share of U.S. economic output, household debt was about 67% last quarter, barely edging up from the third quarter and well below a high of about 87% in early 2009.

“The current debt level is still manageable and is likely to grow further this year,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at advisory firm Grant Thornton.

 
 
Comment by Saltwater Catfish
2018-02-20 22:18:06

Prophets
Say Goodbye to Stocks and Bonds Moving in Opposite Directions
We may be entering a period when they rise and fall in unison.
by Jim Bianco
February 20, 2018, 2:00 AM PST
Welcome to the new age.
Photographer: Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty Images

The post-crisis era has been dominated by a risk-on/risk-off trading environment where risk assets such as stocks and safe assets such as bonds move in opposite directions. That may no longer be true.

Some have dismissed the recent spike in volatility as an isolated derivatives debacle rather than a regime shift in trading patterns. Yet, these gyrations are the results of rising inflation fears that are fueling concern that central banks may exit the markets sooner than anticipated.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 in blue and 10-year yields in red. The green line in the bottom panel is a rolling five-year correlation of the weekly change in the price of stocks and bonds. From 1954 to 1966 and since 2001, the rolling five-year correlation between stock and bond prices was negative. These periods were dominated by a deflationary mindset. Stock and bond prices moved in opposite directions. Deflation fears depressed yields (boosted bond prices) and pressured stocks lower. When deflation fears dissipated, yields rose and stocks rallied. Wall Street refers to this as risk-on/risk-off.

The shaded area highlights the period from 1966 to late 2001 when stock and bond prices were positively correlated. That was when inflation was a primary concern in financial markets. If inflation was deemed too high, bond yields rose while stocks prices fell. Whenever inflation subsided, bond yields fell along with stocks.

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-02-20 10:23:36

Murphy, TX Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Dallas Area Housing Market Implodes

https://www.zillow.com/murphy-tx/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-20 10:29:46

‘But Kahlon was he was sanguine. ‘Nothing will happen if there’s a big drop in home prices,’ he said. ‘We are seeing declines in the real estate market, which could bring a slowdown, but contractors’ profit margins are so large that they can afford to cede a little income.’

Seems Moshe agrees with my “greedy bashtards” theory.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-20 10:32:30

At $50/sq ft (lot, labor, materials and profit), Moshe is onto something. ;)

 
Comment by Sean
2018-02-20 12:08:38

Wasn’t there another contractor this week saying they needed to build luxury only because the profit margins were so thin? “A 2×4 doesn’t care whether it goes into affordable homes or luxury homes” was the quote I believe.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-20 12:24:23

That was a developer.

Do you think he was lying?

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-20 10:36:32

‘‘People could refinance because the value was there,’ Mr. Cocomile said. ‘They call me and say, ‘My neighbour’s house just sold for $1.7-million, can I pull some equity out? I want to do a refi.’ Toronto real estate’s rotten January suggest people may be a bit disappointed in what their homes are worth now. The price of detached homes in the city fell 9 per cent on a year-over-year basis’

Yeah, but the peak was last April or May, which puts the drop way over 9%. Remember that 30% spike?

Comment by azdude
2018-02-20 11:01:42

it is unethical to deny these homeowners access to their hard earned equity.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-20 12:23:25

They should cash it out before it vanishes.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-20 12:29:10

Aren’t all home loans in Canada recourse loans?

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-20 12:36:44

I found this on the net (thus it must be true 😁) …

“In the rest of Canada, mortgages are generally recourse loans. But even in Alberta and Saskatchewan, a mortgage is only non-recourse if it is not insured by the government’s mortgage insurer CMHC. If the mortgage is insured, the CMHC may pursue the borrower for the deficiency.”

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-20 12:40:05

CMHC = Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2018-02-21 05:40:11

There is no MID either……but no tax on capital gains!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2018-02-20 12:31:02

glad i sold my canadah stocks
the country is run by a hippie

Comment by Drater
2018-02-20 15:24:56

…he is popular with the peoplekind in Canada

**sorry if it’s non-PC to say “he”

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-20 16:18:59

The people I know in Ontario think he is a real flamer.

 
 
 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-20 12:41:26

Homex is one of the the Mexican construction companies at the center of Mexico’s housing debacle. The LA Times did a deep-dive, five part expose on Mexico’s housing which can be found here:

http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-mexico-housing-chapter-2/

I read each of these long-form articles and the sheer scope and magnitude of corruption, lack of regulation, kick backs, shoddy workmanship, predatory lending, fly-by-night operations involved is nauseating. It is truly horrific. So what is Homex doing in Kenya? Well, it looks like Homex expanded to Egypt, India, and Brazil. It looks like they are exporting their disaster. US billionaire real estate investor Sam Zell was involved in Homex but divested before the shoddy workmanship and nightmare scenarios bubbled up.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-02-20 13:41:52

Great article.

Comment by Lurker
2018-02-20 15:57:19

Very interesting, thanks for the link

 
 
Comment by rj not in chicago anymore
2018-02-20 16:28:30

“The company’s rise was powered by then-President Vicente Fox’s promise to succeed where his predecessors had failed in fulfilling the Mexican Constitution’s guarantee of “a dignified and decent” home for all citizens.”

And there you have it - once something is enshrined by gubmit - well what do you expect? Fox allowed the camel to sniff under the tent with his finance package and ruh roh - the bottom drops out.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-20 20:23:56

And Fox was the ex Coca Cola exec, non commie president.

There is a very good chance Mexicans will elect a commie, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), this summer. At first it will be fiesta time, but once the money runs out and peso goes into a devaluation death spiral expect the Mexodus to return with a vengeance.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-21 09:00:58

For some reason “Homex” made me think of this:

https://i.pinimg.com/564x/2c/5b/5e/2c5b5e681ada3926d3b1e07945906e3e.jpg

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-21 09:20:58

LOL at “Mexicana”

 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-02-20 13:34:10

Superior, CO Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY Housing Correction Visits Boulder County

https://www.movoto.com/superior-co/market-trends/

Comment by Jingle Male
2018-02-21 05:47:39

Your “trend” is 12 houses? Your link shows inventory is down 35% and $/SF are up 20%!

You may be on “Mortgage Watch”, but I’m on “Idiot Watch”!

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-21 06:20:18

DebtDonkey

Washington, DC 20010 Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY

https://www.zillow.com/washington-dc/home-values/

https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg

 
 
 
Comment by Lurker
2018-02-20 15:55:21

Weekly Summary: HBB-Reported Purchase Price Declines
Posted every Tuesday. YTD list and key posted first Tuesday of the month.

Feb 14-20

> [-46.4 London - Chelsea / PCA LUX FOR (Feb18)]
> -20% Kuala Lumpur / PSF LUX (Feb18)
> -9% Toronto / SFR (Feb18)
> -8% Stockholm / AVG CND (yoy Feb18)
> -8% Summit County, CO / AVG SP LND (Feb18)
> -5.1% Jerusalem (Q418)
> -4.3% London (Q417)
> -4% Toronto sub - Durham Region / AVG SP (yoy Feb18)
> -4% Sweden / AVG CND (yoy Feb18)
> -3% Stockholm - greater / AVG SFR (yoy Feb18)
> -2.5% Tel Aviv / AVG (Q3-Q417)
> -1.2% Israel (Q3-Q417)
> -1% Gothenburg, Sweden - central/ AVG CND (yoy Feb18)
> -0.69% Israel / AVG (Q3-Q417)
> -0.4% UK (yoy Feb18)

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
Comment by tj
2018-02-20 16:41:38

it won’t be long before most human soldiers become actual liabilities for the modern military anyway.

for instance, i think we need to worry about what might escape from the robotics military labs, rather than what might escape from the biological or ordinary robotics labs.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2018-02-21 01:29:55

‘what might escape from the robotics military labs’

https://youtu.be/fUyU3lKzoio

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-21 09:17:27

And if you want to give nightmares to your children next Christmas, here you go:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDZu04v7_hc

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Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-21 09:06:17

As for those who are too fat, isn’t that what boot camp’s for?

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-21 09:19:57

I don’t think BMI is too much of an impediment to being a remote drone pilots.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2018-02-21 10:32:21

As for those who are too fat, isn’t that what boot camp’s for?

There’s a limit to how much you can do at boot camp, even with the full Private Pyle treatment. If they don’t have enough discipline to do most of it before they come in there’s no point. Even if you get them under the limit during boot camp they’ll put it back on as soon as you no longer control their diet and you’ll have to discharge them early anyway.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-21 11:45:05

One of the biggest myths out there is that the lack of exercise is the primary cause of obesity. Food choices and diet is by far and away the largest contributor, with lack of sleep and stress coming in as dishonorable mentions. The soda industry pushes this narrative because they want to talk about “balancing” caloric intake.

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/16/upshot/to-lose-weight-eating-less-is-far-more-important-than-exercising-more.html

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Comment by Apartment 401
2018-02-20 16:26:16

Gun owner destroys AR-15 on viral video:

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5a8b6da7e4b0a1d0e12c3a7a

After reading a recent post on HBB that noted the City/County of Denver voted 79% for Hillary vs 18% for Trump, I put a NRA sticker on my rear windshield.

Kidz, have fun throwing a temper tantrum in Tallahassee this week.

Instead of banning guns, why not just ban schools?

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-20 16:43:23

Gotta say that I agree with this. He seems like an enlightened individual. Government repurchase of guns has dramatically lowered gun deaths in Australia. Whether voluntary give-backs or buy-backs, it seems like we should rethink who should have a gun, how easily it should be able to be accessed, and what responsibilities come with this right. All the facts show that high gun prevalence is linked to higher gun deaths. It’s not just correlation, it’s causal.

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-20 18:33:00

IMHO, we need to crack down HARD on registered fire-arms ending up in the hands of folks to whom they were NOT registered–in addition to current laws for illegal possession of weapons:

1. Randomly require people to bring in their registered weapons to show that they still possess them. If you are unable to present the weapon, you get hit with a large fine and/or inability to purchase a weapon legally.

2. Regularly (monthly? quarterly?), there should be an “amnesty day” for folks who possess weapons that are not registered to them to turn them in…no questions asked–no penalties for the person who possessed them, OR penalties for the person to whom the weapon was registered.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-20 19:06:16

‘IMHO, we need to crack down HARD’

Yeah, you grab your gun and start cracking down. What’s that? You want guys in military garb to do the cracking on 99.99% law abiding people? Educate yourself and see this crap for what it is:

‘Shocking photos posted to Twitter of a CBS News reporter and students who survived last Wednesday’s high school massacre in Parkland, Florida that killed seventeen students and faculty, show the reporter and students laughing uproariously and posing for the photos like they are partying rock stars.’

‘The photos featuring CBS reporter Gisela Perez and the students were posted by CBS This Morning staffer Caroline West and student activist Cameron Kasky. The photos come off as if they were promo stills for Glee: The High School Massacre.’

‘These photos were taken over the weekend on the set of an interview taped for broadcast Monday morning. This means the students were only three or four days out from surviving a massacre in their school. In just a few days they have become celebrated heroes of the anti-Trump resistance and are acting and being feted like rock stars. In fact rock stars (or a pop star in this case) are reaching out to them, “I just want to thank @justinbieber for being so kind to our movement since last night. He and I had some trouble because my third grade girlfriend was much more interested in him than she was in me, but he and I have gotten over that. We have each other. #NeverAgain”

‘Student activist Kasky mentions the students have “practiced” in a reply to someone concerned they will be taken advantage of by President Trump, “We’re not afraid of people trying to exploit us. We’ve practiced. We know their slimy tactics. Thankfully, most news networks we’ve worked with are interested in telling the right stories.”

‘Speaking of practice, here’s a video clip of a student speaking a perfectly practiced extended sound byte for British television–just days away from surviving a school massacre.’

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/02/photos-student-school-massacre-survivors-cbs-reporter-party-like-rock-stars/

‘In just a few days they have become celebrated heroes of the anti-Trump resistance and are acting and being feted like rock stars…”Thankfully, most news networks we’ve worked with are interested in telling the right stories”

Uh huh.

Get cracking Nostradamus Watch. I can predict what’s going to come of it.

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Comment by Bubblebot
2018-02-20 22:46:46

“Yeah, you grab your gun and start cracking down. What’s that? You want guys in military garb to do the cracking on 99.99% law abiding people? Educate yourself and see this crap for what it is:”

Thank you Ben for sharing the truth as always.

 
 
Comment by sod
2018-02-20 19:08:09

Maybe they could give out gold star stickers too, you know, if you do good and jump through whatever hoops they tell you to.

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Comment by tj
2018-02-20 19:41:39

1. Randomly require people to bring in their registered weapons to show that they still possess them.

i see you’ve really thought this out. we’ll make it like drug testing. only we’ll obviously have to have the government do it, not some employer. that’s good. it makes the government a little more dangerous than it already is.

what if they lose their firearm? what happens then? how punitive are you going to be? what if they move a few months later and find it again? should they be afraid to report it to govie? will they be fined again? jail time?

in every case in history, government disarmed its citizen’s before it began killing them.

2. Regularly (monthly? quarterly?), there should be an “amnesty day” for folks who possess weapons that are not registered to them to turn them in

amnesty? so you want to make it outright illegal to own guns? our constitutional right?

you should watch ‘house of spirits’ with jermey irons and antonio banderas. he thought he was on the ‘right side’ of government. but he was wrong. there IS no ‘right side’ of government. government is always dangerous no matter who’s in charge.

i think it was george washington that said “government is like fire, it makes a dangerous servant and a fearsome master.

i never figured you for a gun grabber.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-20 20:00:14

‘i see you’ve really thought this out’

No, he just watches TV. Sure, we just need to build a government “system”, then we’ll all be “safe”. Like the system with an FBI who gets a hotline call from a person who knows this wimp, says he’s gonna kill people and specifically at a school? Yeah, let’s give up our constitutional rights and rely on that!

 
Comment by jeff
2018-02-21 08:21:06

“No, he just watches TV.”

14:35 - 18:10

What Really Happened: Mike Rivero Tuesday 2/20/18:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/UkvxxaXA0ko

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2018-02-21 10:35:01

what if they lose their firearm? what happens then?

Nobody goes home until it’s found :-).

 
 
Comment by Obama Goons
2018-02-20 19:47:03

IMHO, we need to crack down HARD on registered fire-arms ending up in the hands of folks to whom they were NOT registered–in addition to current laws for illegal possession of weapons:

1. Randomly require people to bring in their registered weapons to show that they still possess them. If you are unable to present the weapon, you get hit with a large fine and/or inability to purchase a weapon legally.

2. Regularly (monthly? quarterly?), there should be an “amnesty day” for folks who possess weapons that are not registered to them to turn them in…no questions asked–no penalties for the person who possessed them, OR penalties for the person to whom the weapon was registered.

Moron

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Comment by cool hand luke
2018-02-20 23:38:40

it seems like we should rethink who should have a gun, how easily it should be able to be accessed, and what responsibilities come with this right. Can we apply this to voting as well?

Comment by drumminj
2018-02-21 08:02:31

Can we apply this to voting as well?

And freedom of association? And speech? And trial by jury? And right not to self-incriminate? And….

you get the point…

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Comment by Hi-Z
2018-02-21 08:28:51

The 2nd amendment is part of the Constitution as well as those you just threw out.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-21 09:29:42

Can we apply this to voting as well?

We already do apply this to voting. You must be of a certain age, a legal resident of the country, and you can’t be a convicted felon and vote. In other words, you commit a serious crime, you lose the right to have a gun.

People want to talk about rights without talking about responsibilities. They go hand in hand. All of the rights you posted above have limits. For instance, you can’t yell fire in a crowded theater. Free speech doesn’t mean you can say whatever you want. You can’t post death threats. All rights are abridged in some manner.

 
Comment by redmondjp
2018-02-21 11:46:27

You say that we apply this to voting, but no, we don’t.

In my state, illegals come in with the CA id and exchange it for a WA id, complete with automatic voter registration. Our own state government actively encourages and aids illegals to become registered voters!

We are soo fooked.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-21 11:55:41

If you vote illegally, you are breaking the law. Your point just speaks to the need to make sure the regulations are strong enough to prevent the behavior we don’t want (e.g. illegal voting). Regs should be implemented for guns as well.

 
Comment by drumminj
2018-02-21 20:30:51

Regs should be implemented for guns as well.

Don’t forget free speech and freedom of religion as well! Definitely need to make sure only the “right” people get to exercise those rights….

You must be on good terms with the government to get to choose your religion…and to get to speak openly without fear of imprisonment

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-21 22:30:42

As mentioned above, we already have limits on free speech such as obscenity, child pornography, defamation, incitement to violence and true threats of violence.

As far as religion is concerned, “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.”

Unless your religion is inciting violence, treason, sedition, or otherwise infringing or negatively abridging another right, then we don’t curtail freedom of religion. No right is unlimited, and there is a collision of rights that occurs in which case the supreme court has to make a decision.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Obama Goons
2018-02-20 16:43:37

How much was that puke paid? $50k? 100k? Who paid him?

 
Comment by jeff
2018-02-20 18:31:23

According To The FBI, Knives Kill Far More People Than Rifles In America – It’s Not Even Close

BENNY JOHNSON
2:19 PM 02/19/2018

According to the FBI, 1,604 people were killed by “knives and cutting instruments” and 374 were killed by “rifles” in 2016.

The statistics match the trends seen in previous years, which show knife murders far outnumbering rifle statistics. In 2013, knives were used to kill 1,490 and rifles were used to kill 285. Handguns far outnumber both knives and rifles in American murders. There were 7,105 murders by handgun in America in 2016.

Handguns were not included in the assault weapons ban.

http://dailycaller.com/2018/02/19/knives-gun-control-fbi-statistics/

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-21 09:37:37

This is misleading. See below:

Every year, the FBI releases the Uniform Crime Report (UCR), a national set of crime statistics which is compiled from data submitted by the nation’s roughly 18,000 police departments. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the UCR is one of the two official sources, along with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Fatal Injury Reports, from which the nation’s homicide rate is measured. Unlike the FBI, the CDC’s report collects data from death certificates reported by physicians, medical examiners and coroners. Per the UCR, 9,778 murders were committed with firearms in 2015, while the CDC’s figure is significantly higher — 12,979.

There were 1,604 people killed with “knives or cutting instruments vs 12,979 murders with a gun.

https://www.snopes.com/four-times-more-stabbed-than-rifles-any-kind/

Comment by tj
2018-02-21 09:50:23

snope is left wing and can’t be trusted give accurate information.

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Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-21 11:49:48

Come on tj, you’re starting to sound like a tin hat guy. Here is the FBI data itself (the one that was referenced in the original post):

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/table-12

You can add it all up if you want yourself. It checks out. Anyone who is pushing a narrative is going to use misleading stats. The fact that knives kill more people than guns is obviously ridiculous.

 
Comment by tj
2018-02-21 13:53:22

snopes is leftwing crap that can’t be trusted.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-21 16:44:47

Nothing should be trusted until you verify the sources. Snopes does just that. And by the way, Snopes is a legitimate fact checking organization. I’d like you to find something that is inaccurate that Snopes has pointed out and explain in detail why.

For what it’s worth, the data I cited comes directly from from the FBI’s crime stats. I’m starting to doubt your intelligence tj…

 
Comment by tj
2018-02-21 18:30:39

I’d like you to find something that is inaccurate that Snopes has pointed out and explain in detail why.

sorry, i don’t do legwork for others. snopes been disproven or called into question many, many times. so has their leftist cousin politico. anyone who wants to find out the truth can do so fairly easily. i’m sure that many that read this forum already have.

For what it’s worth, the data I cited comes directly from from the FBI’s crime stats.

it isn’t worth anything. obama weaponized the FBI just like he did the IRS. so nothing the FBI says or produces can be trusted since he came into office. you might as well be citing the MSM. obama and hillary were traitors and should be hung or get the chair like the rosenbergs.

 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-02-21 11:29:49

Teen alcohol use kills 4,300 people each year – that’s more than all illegal drugs combined.

https://www.madd.org/statistics/

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Comment by jeff
2018-02-21 11:35:11

About 88,000 U.S. deaths each year traced to alcohol use, study says

March 13, 2014

Alcohol is responsible for about 88,000 deaths in the U.S. each year, according to a new government report on the toll of excessive drinking.

The study, published Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, comes as police investigate an alleged drunk driver who struck and killed two people early Thursday morning at the South by Southwest festival in Austin, Texas. Another 23 people were injured after the driver went the wrong way on a one-way street in an apparent attempt to evade an officer who had pulled him over. Austin police Chief Art Acevedo said officials planned to charge the driver with two counts of capital murder and multiple counts of aggravated assault.

The CDC report calculated that fatalities due to drunk drivers and more than 50 other alcohol-related causes of death are responsible for wiping out about 2.5 million years of potential life each year. Americans between 20 and 64 were victims in the majority of alcohol-related deaths, so many of them would have lived for many more years if alcohol hadn’t killed them (either directly or indirectly).

http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-alcohol-related-deaths-years-lost-sxsw-20140313-story.html

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Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-21 11:59:17

Your point is? Absolutely drunk driving should be regulated against more aggressively. Look at what my state is doing in leading the nation:

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/02/15/gov-herbert-says-new-toughest-in-nation-dui-law-will-stand-without-major-changes/

You’re engaging in “Whataboutism” which is a tactic designed to deflect and take the focus on gun violence and the need for gun regulation.

 
Comment by jeff
2018-02-21 16:33:52

“Your point is?”

No crying CNN anchor shouting “Not one more” for those 88,000. Or the tens of thousands taken out by drugs, knives, bats, hammers, machetes, hand guns etc.

Just the 40 or 50 (God rest their souls) who run into a Lunatic who got his hands on a couple on AR-15s

Why is that?

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-21 17:00:45

Well, for one, many of the alcohol related deaths (or Years of Potential Life Lost) are self-inflicted whereas gun violence is directed at infringing on the right to life of another individual. If someone wants to drink themselves to death, that’s less of a concern to me than a school shooter. Of course, once you get on a road drunk, that’s another matter entirely.

The article you quoted identifies this 88,000 number as this:

The database tracks 54 causes of disease and death that are influenced by alcohol to some degree. For instance, alcoholic liver disease, fetal alcohol syndrome and alcohol poisoning are among the diseases considered 100% attributable to drinking, while liver cancer, hypertension, stroke and accidents may be partially related to alcohol use. Even causes of morbidity and mortality that are as little as 1% attributable to excessive drinking are tracked in the database.

In other words, this is an apples vs oranges comparison.

And when it comes to outrage, people are indeed outraged when alcoholic deaths affect innocent people. Think about M.A.D.D. (Mothers Against Drunk Drivers). Drunk driving claims more than 10,000 lives each year, which is far too many, but not near as high as the 88,000 figure you are claiming.

In any event, in a decade or two we’ll have fully autonomous vehicles which I anticipate will largely eliminate drunk driving, although it still won’t mitigate the other health effects of alcohol.

 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-02-21 11:52:15

FBI: More People Killed with Hammers, Clubs Each Year than Rifles

by AWR HAWKINS
Jan 3, 2013

According to the FBI annual crime statistics, the number of murders committed annually with hammers and clubs far outnumbers the number of murders committed with a rifle.
This is an interesting fact, particularly amid the Democrats’ feverish push to ban many different rifles, ostensibly to keep us safe of course.

However, it appears the zeal of Sens. like Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) is misdirected. For in looking at the FBI numbers from 2005 to 2011, the number of murders by hammers and clubs consistently exceeds the number of murders committed with a rifle.

Think about it: In 2005, the number of murders committed with a rifle was 445, while the number of murders committed with hammers and clubs was 605. In 2006, the number of murders committed with a rifle was 438, while the number of murders committed with hammers and clubs was 618.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2013/01/03/fbi-more-people-killed-with-hammers-and-clubs-each-year-than-with-rifles/

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Comment by jeff
2018-02-21 12:12:18

AMERICA DOESN’T HAVE A GUN PROBLEM, IT HAS A GANG PROBLEM

The country’s real “gun culture” is controlled by the urban Democratic machine.

December 30, 2012 Daniel Greenfield

Chicago’s murder numbers have hit that magic 500. Baltimore’s murder toll has passed 200. In Philly, it’s up to 324, the highest since 2007. In Detroit, it’s approaching 400, another record. In New Orleans, it’s almost at 200. New York City is down to 414 from 508. In Los Angeles, it’s over 500. In St. Louis it’s 113 and 130 in Oakland. It’s 121 in Memphis and 76 in Birmingham.

Washington, D.C., home of the boys and girls who can solve it all, is nearing its own big 100.

Those 12 cities alone account for nearly 3,200 dead and nearly a quarter of all murders in the United States. And we haven’t even visited sunny Atlanta or chilly Cleveland.

These cities are the heartland of America’s real gun culture. It isn’t the bitter gun-and-bible clingers in McCain and Romney territory who are racking up a more horrifying annual kill rate than Al Qaeda; it’s Obama’s own voting base.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/171576/america-doesnt-have-gun-problem-it-has-gang-daniel-greenfield

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Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-21 12:51:35

Wasn’t that Florida shooter wearing a MAGA hat?

 
Comment by tresho
2018-02-22 10:52:53

Wasn’t that Florida shooter wearing a MAGA hat?
In a time of mass insanity, does it really matter what the hat is?

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-22 14:59:55

Not really, just highlighting the stupidity of trying to pin gun problem on Obama’s base, Trump’s base, or anyone else’s base.

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-21 09:08:18

Gun owner destroys AR-15 on viral video

He probably thinks that virtue signalling like that will improve his chances with women.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-02-21 10:38:31

I haven’t watched it but I’ve heard he does a very stupid thing and cuts down the barrel to an illegal length before making the whole thing inoperable. If he weren’t pleasing the right people he would be getting a midnight visit from Randy Weaver’s friends.

 
 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2018-02-20 17:04:31

The boom ripens.

Zero-down home loans are back. Be very leery.
By Jill Chodorov Kaminsky
February 19 at 9:00 AM
Washington Post

As a real estate agent, buyers who lost their homes during the crash have been asking me for the past eight years whether they will ever be able to purchase a home again.

Today, I can finally say yes. We are at 360 degrees in the cycle. Underwriting requirements to qualify for a loan have eased. I have also recently seen an increase in advertisements from lenders pitching creative loan programs, such as zero down.

“These programs are wonderful for those who can’t afford to buy,” said Michael Chelst, branch manager of Norcom Mortgage’s office in Greenbelt, Md. “More people can buy homes now.”

That’s the good news. But there is a darker side to these loans.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/where-we-live/wp/2018/02/12/zero-down-home-loans-are-back-be-very-leery

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-20 17:36:56

Zero down never went a way with Phoney and Fraudie 3.5% down payment with down payment assistance of 5%.

Albany, OR Housing Prices Crater 30% YOY As Plunging Housing Demand

https://www.movoto.com/albany-or/market-trends/

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-20 17:40:03

I have seen new shack zero-down loans on billboards for years in AZ. Saw it in Texas too.

 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-20 17:51:28

“These programs are wonderful for those who can’t afford to buy.”

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha … do these pukes who make such utterences ever listen to what they say?

Comment by azdude
2018-02-20 18:12:44

degenerate gamblers

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-02-20 18:57:54

R u saying I’m in good company? :)

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Comment by Drater
2018-02-20 18:41:21

“These programs are wonderful for those who can’t afford to buy.”

-also applies on lease programs for Mercedes C class and BMW 3 series

 
 
 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-02-20 19:21:22

My county is going for a 5% tax hike
That should kill the market

Comment by rms
2018-02-21 12:56:33

“My county is going for a 5% tax hike”

In one fell swoop?

 
 
Comment by tj
2018-02-20 19:44:08

The left wants to talk about gun control in the wake of Nikolas Cruz’s mass murder of 17 students Wednesday at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida.
Fine. We need to talk. Something is definitely wrong with our society when this happens with such frequency and intensity.

But the left seems intent to begin with non-starters and distractions like blaming the National Rifle Association or calling for a repeal of the Second Amendment.

That gets us nowhere, and fast.

So before we can have a productive or at least an informative debate, here are a few things gun control advocates should know about the people they call “gun nuts.”

First, the NRA didn’t create us. We created the NRA.

Most gun owners probably couldn’t pick NRA president Wayne LaPierre out of a lineup and we certainly don’t base our belief in the Second Amendment on whatever he or others have to say on the matter.

The “right of the people to keep and bear arms” isn’t simply written into our constitution where it’s at risk of being misinterpreted or repealed.

It’s branded into our hearts as freeborn people, woven into our lives as Americans, and it’s passed to our children as an inheritance.

It wasn’t something pulled from thin air, but the recognition of a natural right that has always existed, and always will.

The NRA does great work for us, but if it vanished tomorrow, the left would be no closer to taking that birthright than they are today.

Second, we don’t believe the Second Amendment was drafted to allow gun ownership for only hunting or even home defense, so you can save all your talk about only needing shotguns and six-shooters.

We believe that a “well regulated militia” means that the people are well armed, well supplied, and well trained, and that their purpose is indeed “necessary to the security of a free state.”

The Second Amendment is about giving individual Americans – not just the government – the means to deter or defeat a threat to our freedom, be it foreign or domestic. There’s no chance of needing that today or in the near future, but who’s to say what kind of a world our grandchildren will inherit?

Whatever it may be, they will also inherit the means to defend themselves.

Admittedly, that may sound extreme to some ears considering modern times, but after a bad turn or two down the road, it could be what saves our American way of life.

Third, we’ll never surrender our Second Amendment rights.

Charlton Heston once concluded a speech by raising an old flintlock rifle over his head and saying, defiantly, “From my cold dead hands.”

Liberals laughed, declaring the old actor to be too melodramatic.

We cheered, agreeing with every word.

As the bumper sticker slogan says, “If guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns.”

We’ll never allow the actions of terrorists, criminals or the insane to cause us to surrender our arms, thereby making our communities more vulnerable to their actions.

No matter what they do, and regardless of what any White House, Congress, or court has to say afterward, this right “shall not be infringed” as long as we breathe American air.

Fourth, we don’t believe that our Second Amendment rights are the problem.

We believe that all of this violence is the direct result of a systemic lack of respect for life and law, a generational desensitization to cruelty, and the actions of twisted and evil people.

Something is indeed wrong. But it’s not the guns in our hands. It’s the sickness in our hearts.

So, attacking the Second Amendment isn’t only futile, it’s a costly distraction from the real problem.

With all that said, one might think that trying to convince folks like me to change our minds and repeal the Second Amendment might be a waste of time.

And with that, we’d finally agree on something.

Now, can we talk?

http://yellowhammernews.com/featured/4-things-gun-control-advocates-dont-understand-gun-nuts-like/

Comment by Saltwater Catfish
2018-02-20 22:13:30

Trump calls for strengthening background checks in wake of Fla. shooting
By Brandon Carter - 02/20/18 08:36 PM EST

President Trump on Tuesday appeared to suggest lawmakers should turn their focus to strengthening background checks for gun purchases in the wake of the deadly mass shooting at a Florida high school last week.

“Whether we are Republican or Democrat, we must now focus on strengthening Background Checks!” Trump tweeted.

 
 
Comment by jeff
2018-02-20 22:37:16

youtube shut damn near everything down this time.

Comment by Jingle Male
2018-02-21 06:03:33

What does this mean? What was shut down? What time?

Comment by jeff
2018-02-21 09:52:00

What I thought had been taken down had not.

Please accept my apology.

Comment by rms
2018-02-21 13:07:56

Maybe it went viral, and you couldn’t access it?

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-21 00:46:51

Are we at the point in the cycle where proles get sucked into buying stocks in droves, just before the next catastrophic financial meltdown?

 
Comment by taxpayer
2018-02-21 07:09:08

refi down to 44% of mort activity

why would it ever be more than 10% ?

what % was it in the 1950’s

 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-02-21 08:45:05

Miami Shores, FL Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Vacation Property Market Implodes

https://www.movoto.com/miami-shores-fl/market-trends/

 
Comment by CryptoNick
2018-02-21 09:03:11

News
BBC News Navigation
Technology
Crypto-currency craze ‘hinders search for alien life’
By Chris Baraniuk Technology reporter
14 February 2018
If there is intelligent life out there, it might be broadcasting signals across the universe

Scientists listening out for broadcasts by extra-terrestrials are struggling to get the computer hardware they need, thanks to the crypto-currency mining craze, a radio-astronomer has said.

Seti (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) researchers want to expand operations at two observatories.

However, they have found that key computer chips are in short supply.

“We’d like to use the latest GPUs [graphics processing units]… and we can’t get ‘em,” said Dan Werthimer.

Demand for GPUs has soared recently thanks to crypto-currency mining.

“That’s limiting our search for extra-terrestrials, to try to answer the question, ‘Are we alone? Is there anybody out there?’,” Dr Werthimer told the BBC.

“This is a new problem, it’s only happened on orders we’ve been trying to make in the last couple of months.”

 
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