February 22, 2018

They List To Sell, But Are Unable To Sell

A report from the Toronto Star in Canada. “The dip in Toronto’s housing market means there’s a different dynamic at play between sellers and buyers this year. An analysis by Zoocasa shows more neighbourhoods have become buyer’s markets — areas where there is enough competition among sellers that buyers have more choice and more room for negotiation — conditions that simply weren’t on the table in heated January 2017. Sales and prices have softened somewhat for detached and semi-detached houses and there’s slightly less demand for some of the hot east-end neighbourhoods. Penelope Graham, managing editor with Zoocasa, said the new mortgage stress test rules that took effect Jan. 1 and the lingering chill of the Ontario government’s Fair Housing Plan in April have reduced the pool of house buyers.”

“‘The areas where we’re really seeing an increase in balanced conditions were ones that were really dependent on detached sales — detached and single-family homes make up the majority of housing types in these areas that have seen the greatest change,’ she said.”

From Mortgage Broker News. “Calgary’s real estate market is flat with an overabundance of condos still listed and buyers having trouble securing mortgages. Croft Axsen, owner of DLC Jencor Mortgage Corporation, says refinances, in particular, have become difficult to obtain. ‘Refinances are not insurable, so all of the monolines are out of that market and there’s less competition because of government interference in the marketplace,’ said Axsen. ‘It’s a significantly smaller market than it used to be, which I assume is the government’s purpose, but I’m not sure restricting liquidity in Calgary is necessary at this time, but I understand their concerns about Vancouver and Toronto. Unfortunately, they want to use a sledgehammer instead of a needlepoint to fix what they’re concerned about.’”

“He has noticed an uptick in people forced to sell their homes because of an inability to get refinanced, as well as ‘move-up’ buyers with children on the way being stuck in their insufficiently-sized condos. ‘For many of them they don’t understand, because they’ve been able to get mortgages their entire lives, but now they’re being told they can’t.’”

“Gone are the days when seemingly everybody bought a new home every three to five years. Now move-up buyers are stuck in their condos, and with condos planned before the economy crashed coming to market, there’s too much supply. Julie Jeffery, a broker with DLC Elevation Mortgage, says realtor and consumer confidence is low. ‘They’re really, really nervous,’ she said. ‘They list to sell, but are unable to sell,’ said Jeffery.”

From the Calgary Herald. “In Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s Housing Market Assessment for the first quarter of 2018, the Calgary census metropolitan area was one of four markets to earn a moderate degree of vulnerability. The other three were Edmonton, Saskatoon, and Regina. When it comes to rating overbuilding, two factors CMHC looks at include apartment rental vacancy rates and inventory.”

“‘Although it has come down over the previous year, it’s still fairly elevated, well above historical averages,’ says Richard Cho, principal of market analysis for CMHC in the prairie region, on vacancy rates in the Calgary area. For inventory, CMHC reviews numbers on both the single-family and multi-family ends of the market, but Cho adds ‘really, it’s the multi-family segment where we’re seeing high inventory levels, which is contributing to the evaluation around overbuilding.’”

From Metro News. “Alberta’s economic downturn has spurred thousands of workers to leave the oil patch. For the second year in a row, the Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake economic region posted the largest decrease in population in the country, according to Statistics Canada. For years, Fort McMurray saw skyrocketing home prices because the growth was unsustainable. ‘We are seeing more houses moved in the market, more homes are selling,’ said Fort McMurray Chamber of Commerce Executive Director Alexis Foster. ‘But the sale prices are going down … it’s sort of a double-edged sword.’”

“The situation is similar in Cold Lake, which is also heavily dependent on the oil patch, said Mayor Craig Copeland. Housing starts have ‘flattened’ since 2014, down 30 per cent for the third year in a row, he said. Hotels have been quiet, charities have been affected and housing prices are dropping rapidly. ‘In some cases houses have dropped over $100,000 in their value,’ Copeland said.”

From Reuters. “British Columbia moved on Tuesday to crack down on real estate speculators, expanding its foreign buyer tax and introducing a new speculation tax, as part of a wide-ranging strategy to cool housing prices in Canada’s most expensive real estate market. The left-leaning New Democratic (NDP) government, under pressure to address skyrocketing home prices and soaring rents, particularly in the Vancouver area, unveiled a 30-point housing plan as part of its first full budget.”

“The province also moved to clamp down on condo presale flipping - where units are bought and sold many times before construction completes - and to close loopholes allowing foreign buyers to invest through numbered companies and local proxies. In measures sure to appeal to frustrated voters, the province pledged to end tax breaks for mansions on protected farmland.”

From Bloomberg. “‘B.C.’s real estate market should not be used as a stock market. It should be used to provide safe and secure homes,’ said British Columbia Finance Minister Carole James. ‘That’s why we’re cracking down on speculators who distort our market.’ The levy, she said, will also capture ’satellite families’ — a term with Chinese origins to describe those families where the breadwinner remains in the home country while the children and spouse reside abroad to take advantage of educational and employment opportunities.”

“The foreign buyers’ tax will also be extended beyond the Vancouver region to properties in Victoria and other parts of the province. Taxes on the province’s most expensive properties will also rise — homes worth more than $3 million will pay a 5 per cent property transfer tax when sold, up from 3 per cent.”

From Casino Reports. “Casinos are often used by criminals as a front for money laundering crime. Money laundering and other corrupt activities have been the scourge that needs to be tackled by governments. Last year, a suppressed casino report unveiled suspicious cash transactions washing through casinos in the lower mainland in Canada. An RCMP investigation into underground banking and alleged laundering of drug cash in B.C. casinos unveiled an intricate terrorist financing system.”

“A Globe and Mail investigation has found out that 17 local residents are investing millions of dollars in Vancouver-area real estate in private lending and mortgages. The money is allegedly obtained illegally. The lenders, then, are repaid with wads of clean cash. In 2016, three of the lenders were caught red-handed, carrying fentanyl worth C$600,000 in cash.”

“The three lenders alone registered more than $20-million in mortgages and other debts against multimillion-dollar homes in recent years. The Globe and Mail found out that a total of 17 such lenders are involved in the scheme. They claimed a stake worth C$47 million. In addition to that, the lenders were found to have interest in 45 Vancouver-area properties in recent years.”

From Toronto Metro. “B.C.’s Attorney-General has pledged to crack down after an explosive investigation in the Globe and Mail uncovered what Vancouver journalist Kathy Tomlinson called Vancouver real estate’s ‘latest dirty little secret’: ’shady money’ from B.C. drug traffickers — funneled through property transaction loans and repaid to fentanyl suppliers in China. The exposé by Tomlinson and Xiao Xu showed that some profits of the deadly fentanyl epidemic — which killed a record 1,422 British Columbians last year, 43 per cent above 2016 — are being laundered through the province’s skyrocketing real estate market.”

“Over roughly the same period, as opioid deaths began to jump in late 2014, property values also soared, pricing many locals out of the housing market. University of Windsor law professor Bill Bogart refered to the realty-drug connections as an example of ‘narconomics and its tentacles.’”

“Richmond city coun. Harold Steves said he’s not at all surprised by the disturbing revelations about money laundering in the real estate market in his city. ‘We heard rumours for years that drug money was involved in some of Richmond’s big houses, and of other unsavory uses in the (Agricultural Land Reserve),’ he tweeted Friday night. ‘Now we know it is true.’”

From Macleans. “It’s a start, at least. And on the surface, it looks surprisingly bold. But it remains to be seen whether the 30-point housing plan British Columbia Premier John Horgan’s government unveiled Tuesday will begin to expunge the pathologies that have turned Metro Vancouver’s real estate market into an international housing affordability basket case and a global playground for white-collar criminals and fentanyl tycoons.”

“What is certain—and it has come as a delight to many West coast housing activists—is that after more than a decade of willful neglect by provincial and municipal politicians, and out of a political culture of persistent denial, indifference, self-dealing and outright corruption, there appears to be a government in Victoria that is giving the province’s distorted, overheated and out-of-control real estate business some long overdue attention.”

“‘I’m not happy, but I’m not sad, either,’ said Andy Yan, the director of Simon Fraser University’s City Program whose data analysis and public advocacy helped to shame Victoria into acting. ‘This will not make Vancouver affordable. But this is a nightmare we’re coming out of. It’s going to take more than one provincial budget to unwind the machine.’”

“Vancouver’s rental vacancy rate has fallen below one per cent. At least 20,000 Vancouver homes are vacant, and nearly 25,000 Vancouver households are declaring a taxable household income that is less than their outlay in property taxes, utilities and mortgage payments. Transparency International estimates that perhaps half of Vancouver’s high-end residences are now owned by shell companies or trusts.”

From Vice Money. “British Columbia’s move to increase the tax levied on foreign buyers of Vancouver property has been cast as ‘political’ by some housing experts, who argue that the new NDP government simply succumbed to pressure from a population that to a large extent, is blaming sky-high home prices on the influx of foreign money. ‘It was obviously a political move,’ Vancouver realtor Steve Saretsky told VICE Money. ‘They picked up a hot potato from the B.C. Liberal government that had done nothing about house prices for so long so they were under immense pressure to get real estate in order.’”

“‘I think the government was responding to the sentiment that foreign buyers are making money off the gain in real estate prices, and they aren’t paying any taxes on those gains,’ Hilliard MacBeth, author of When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash told VICE Money. ‘I think the speculation days are now over in Vancouver. The whole climate is going to change.’”

“Regardless of the extent to which foreign money is driving Canadian real estate, housing experts like Saretsky warn that none of this might end well. ‘I don’t see a happy ending here. Somebody’s going to get hurt and it’s most likely the hardworking family that made enough money to afford property.’”

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Comment by Apartment 401
2018-02-22 09:10:45

Realtors are liars.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-22 09:31:18

…. and every closing a crime scene.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-22 09:13:57

‘They picked up a hot potato from the B.C. Liberal government that had done nothing about house prices for so long…’

This was on purpose. BC’s government knew exactly what was going on, for years.

A couple of things: I read maybe 20 articles this morning on the new effort to stop this - not one mentioned racism. How about that Bob Rennie? Got some drug money in your bank accounts?

The other think is the lending and lack of regulation enforcement supporting the bubble. Oh yeah, there was a biggg shortage in Canada! Until someone started sticking the pins in the bubble. No shortage now, except for knife catchers.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-22 09:16:28

‘BC Liberal party leadership candidate Christy Clark addresses Vancouver arts & culture community at the Rennie Collection in the Wing Sang Building. Chinatown, Vancouver.’

Shame on you Clark and your chief bundler Rennie!

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-22 09:43:31

I think this corruption is something that will never be rooted out in politics. I have given up on thinking that it could be.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-22 11:42:23

It’s not just politics. It’s now embedded in companies, charities, finance, etc. Even in the daily lives of many people, just to survive. We used to attribute this to uncivilized, third world countries, but it is here and now.

I watched an interview with William Binney, the NSA whistleblower, on The Jimmy Dore show yesterday. It was very interesting to see a progressive (Jimmy) get red-pilled, as it dawned on him how bad it really is with respect to the DOJ and the intelligence community. Someone who had been so vitriolic about Trump all of a sudden realizes that Trump might be the last best hope to avoid a full-on Soviet style government.

“Uh, I hope Trump can do something” he mumbled somewhat feebly. Yeah, Jimmy, he might have had an easier time if you hadn’t been taken in by the MSM and spread the poison so liberally.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-22 12:10:10

‘as it dawned on him how bad it really is with respect to the DOJ and the intelligence community’

Binney and other experts proved conclusively that the DNC was not hacked months ago, yet we have to put up with this never-ending crap. I am beyond disgusted with the big media in this country. I’ll never trust them again for the rest of my life.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-02-22 12:58:47

Someone who had been so vitriolic about Trump all of a sudden realizes that Trump might be the last best hope to avoid a full-on Soviet style government.

Speaking of which, I’m surprised that so many people who thought Trump was the second coming of Hitler want all guns to be surrendered to his government.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-02-22 15:16:20

There was no DNC hack. Computer forensics have proven it was a leak. It may or may not have been Seth Rich, but soon after it happened he was murdered in an alleged robbery where nothing was stolen.

These are facts.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-22 16:26:40

The fact that this zit on a boil on the anus of the universe (CNN “reporter”) harassed an elderly lady on her front lawn about some phony Russian trolls on her facebook page shows you how bad it has gotten.


If it was up to me, I’d airlift the guy naked into the heart of Venezuela or NK or Afghanistan. Cowardly POS self-righteous cuck.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-22 18:25:43

I’ll never trust them again for the rest of my life…

I hit that in 1982.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-22 19:58:39

Facebook bought confirm.io in January. They are suffering withering criticism for allowing Russians to whip people up into a frenzy and sow chaos. It seems to me that the ability to verify the identify of someone on a social media site is now a prerequisite for allowing the dissemination of some information.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-22 12:07:53

‘I think this corruption is something that will never be rooted out in politics’

An about face has certainly happened in BC. Clark is out and the REIC is headed to the woodshed. It should get very interesting in the next few months.

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Comment by aNYCdj
2018-02-22 14:36:31

You all are in the wrong business…..new business model overbuild hotel in semi inaccessible area the cry whine to the city and convert to a Homeless shelter at top dollar..



Comment by sod
2018-02-22 16:03:05

Hotels? Why not boats at the local marinas? I hear they are a compassionate lot and probably wouldn’t mind hot bunking as needed.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-22 19:45:27

Putting the homeless in hotels and motels happens in my neck of the woods. It happens when the need outstrips the homeless shelter beds. The city is expanding homeless shelters into smaller, distributed clusters. But this expansion is being met with stark resistance from the local residents who don’t want homeless shelters in their neighborhoods.

Comment by CHE
2018-02-23 13:50:16

Orange County, CA just spent a pretty penny in hotel vouchers to give to homeless people so they could move them out of the Santa Ana riverbed.

I understand they’re good for up to $100 a day for 30 days. $3000 a month for homeless people.

And guess what - they ended up with a higher demand than they expected.

Expect California to continue to fill up with homeless people from across the country as we continue to give them free stuff.

Comment by rms
2018-02-23 15:20:30

“$3000 a month for homeless people.”

The Golden State

Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-02-22 09:26:59

Davis, CA 95616 Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY


*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-22 09:29:01

‘Chris Turcotte, president of Centum, thinks neither the speculation levy nor the increased foreign buyer tax will make Vancouver’s real estate more affordable because the overriding reason for the influx of foreign buyers—who primarily come from China—is desperation.’

“It slowed it down very temporarily when it was first put in place, but then when the shock and speculation wore off the market rebounded,” said Turcotte. “You have to understand the people making these purchases. In a lot of cases, moving the money out of the country is far more valuable than having to cough up some tax. While obviously there’s a majority doing it for tax or investment purposes, there are also people doing it to bring their money to a country where political and financial corruption doesn’t put their money at risk.”

See, if they are fleeing a corrupt, behemoth dictarship, it’s OK! What about the suitcases of drugs Chris? Are they desperate too?

If China is so screwed up, maybe we got a bigger problem than mortgage broker profits.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-22 09:44:02

“Over roughly the same period, as opioid deaths began to jump in late 2014, property values also soared, pricing many locals out of the housing market. University of Windsor law professor Bill Bogart refered to the realty-drug connections as an example of ‘narconomics and its tentacles.’”

It’s hard to imagine similar narco-money laundering isn’t happening in the U.S. residential real estate markets, given similar problems with opioids coupled with skyrocketing home prices and lax enforcement of arms length sales transactions. This was part of the plot of the movie Traffic a few years back, and the money was laundered into San Diego real estate.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-22 19:53:19

I remember in the depths of the Housing Bubble 1.0 when legislators and central banks were trying to put a floor on falling house prices, one of my state senators joined up with Chuck Schumer to propose the legislative piece “Increasing Home Ownership by Priority Visas.” It was basically a bill that allowed foreigners to get a Visa if they bought a home or homes whose price tag was greater than $500,000.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-22 09:47:43

‘The situation is similar in Cold Lake, which is also heavily dependent on the oil patch, said Mayor Craig Copeland. Housing starts have ‘flattened’ since 2014, down 30 per cent for the third year in a row, he said. Hotels have been quiet, charities have been affected and housing prices are dropping rapidly. ‘In some cases houses have dropped over $100,000 in their value’

212 GREGOIRE Crescent, Fort McMurray, Alberta




Ah yes, home of the 400k mobile shack.

Comment by Ben Jones
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-22 09:57:16

They’ve all got the $70,000 diesel truck out front, too.

Comment by rms
2018-02-22 12:52:22

Yep… no moderation.

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Comment by Sam (SW)
2018-02-22 10:31:39


Average household income from the Alberta listing. Wow!

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-22 10:41:41

I suspect that number might have been true when oil was over $100 a barrel.

Are they still paying fast food workers $25/hr?

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-22 10:51:17

Thousands of people wouldn’t be leaving if they could make that kind of money.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-22 10:59:41

Frum zee Net …

“On Sunday, the province’s minimum wage will rise to $13.60. Labour Minister Christina Gray stands beside Mark Bellows, co-owner of the Local Omnivore, during a media event to trumpet the latest wage increase. Alberta’s minimum wage workers will see an increase in their hourly pay from $12.20 to $13.60 starting Sunday.” Sep 29, 2017

Comment by rms
2018-02-22 12:55:18

“105 WATERHOUSE Street, Fort McMurray, Alberta”

Homeowner’s property insurance is about double for a manufactured home than a stick built spec.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-22 09:55:21

Given the climate, $30,000 seems a stretch.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-22 10:24:15

400K for a single wide. It would be cheaper to by one of those fancy 100K motorhomes and stay at the KOA or the local Walmart parking lot. At least that way when the job goes bye-bye you can drive away

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-02-22 10:42:30

But then you’d miss out on the sweet appreciation you’re gonna get from that single wide.

Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-22 12:07:38


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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-22 11:02:32

The problem with that plan is that, like the oil patch in North Dakota, just a parking spot costs upwards of $1,500 per month. The market is efficient, and people quickly learn what a small patch of dirt is “worth” when people are desperate for a place to stay. The greed is truly astounding at times.

And good luck finding the “free” parking spot. When things go nutso like that, there’s no such thing. And if you do find something, expect the sheriff to show up shortly to tell you that you’re “illegally parked.”

Comment by oxide
2018-02-22 12:29:27

ISTM that the worksites could allow the employers in the RVs to park right in the office parking lot, like that Gonzo doctor from Trapper John. No commute. Stay at a Koa for one night a week (or whatever) to empty the tanks.

It sounds like the RV would pencil out even with an expensive parking spot.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-22 18:10:27

Hey Donk

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-22 20:10:51

This is why I’m so keen on the Tesla solution. All these travel RNs would come through my way boasting about how much extra they were getting on their travel contracts, but when I calculated how much they were blowing on their 5th wheel or COW (Condo On Wheels) plus RV parking, it didn’t make their gig all that worth it in my opinion. Of course, they still got to see the Grand Canyon, so that’s worth something. But financially, there has got to be a better way to make a higher wage and not blow it on a not-too-economical nomad solution. Big huge RVs attract to much attention. They stick out too much.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-22 14:03:07

Dumb question: What keeps new campgrounds from popping up? It’s not like they don’t have endless amounts of land, unless the local PTB don’t allow it to happen.

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-22 18:07:38

There were a ton of RV parks that sprang up in North Dakota. Now they’re absolutely moribund.

Comment by tresho
2018-02-22 23:37:57

There were a ton of RV parks that sprang up in North Dakota. Now they’re absolutely moribund.
I don’t get it - what great difference is there between a ND RV park and a patch of ND farmland?

Comment by MacBeth
2018-02-23 05:16:20

Or someone’s driveway?

Pay someone $10-20 a night to park in their driveway.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-23 06:03:34

Donkey Carts are a burden no matter where it is located.

Comment by Anonymous
Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-02-22 12:24:30

But then you are NOT living on a pie-shaped lot fronting another pie-shaped lot which happens to be next to another p….

“Birds of a pie fly tether.”

Comment by sod
2018-02-22 16:06:47

KOAs are a complete rip off, no cheaper and often more expensive than a hotel, for RV camping anyway, not sure on tents.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-22 17:47:55


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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-22 09:51:48

Are you holding your breath until 10 year Treasury yields cross the 3% Maginot Line? LOL!

Bond Market Guide to Trading When 10-Year Treasuries Hit 3%
By Brian Chappatta
, Alexandria Arnold
, and Edward Bolingbroke
February 21, 2018, 4:24 PM PST
Updated on February 22, 2018, 4:46 AM PST
- It’s a key level, but one that investors seem ready to handle
- Traders look back to 2011 for important levels beyond 3.05%
- Yields on Some U.S. Auctions Rose to Highest Levels Since 2008

At this point, it’s more likely a matter of when — not if — the 10-year Treasury yield hits 3 percent. And that apparent inevitability raises a pressing question: How to trade when it happens?

The 10-year yield was last above 3 percent in January 2014 and since the start of last year bond gurus like Jeffrey Gundlach at DoubleLine Capital and Scott Minerd at Guggenheim Partners have highlighted the level as critical to determining whether the three-decade bull market in bonds is at an end. It’s also seen as the point at which equity markets might crack and the dollar could halt its slump against other major currencies.

The yield reached as high as 2.9537 percent on Wednesday after minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting helped spur a selloff, and it was at 2.93 percent as of 7:45 a.m. Thursday in New York.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-23 00:41:17

Who knew that real estate investments would go down the tubes with bonds when interest rates normalized?

The Financial Times
US Interest Rates
Real estate investors suffer from bond market blues
Rising yields hammer sentiment for Reits that pay dividends to shareholders
Joe Rennison in New York 20 hours ago

The $1.1tn US real estate investment trust sector has endured its worst start to a year since the depths of the financial crisis, with sentiment hit hard by rising interest rates and an oversupply of properties such as nursing homes.

Reits are companies that buy properties that are then leased out to tenants. Investors can buy Reits’ stocks, which are seen as bond-like, paying out a dividend to shareholders similar to the coupon on a bond. And just as bond prices fall as yields rise, Reits’ stock prices typically decline as interest rates increase.

The S&P 500 Reits sector has fallen more than 10 per cent so far this year, trailing the 1 per cent rise for the broader index. Not since a 30 per cent plunge in 2009 has the sector performed so badly and as such highlights the vulnerability of Reits should bond yields extend their recent rise.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-22 10:46:16

Amazon’s P/E is now 323. The average P/E for the SP500 is 22.

We all know what’s going to happen. Amazing how NO ONE in the media is saying that it’s unbelievably overvalued. Talk about a crime scene. A lot of “little people” are going to get burned.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-22 11:06:07

Tesla is burning the furniture for heat. They just had another junk bond sale to fund operations because they’re broke as a joke. Yet, their market cap is larger than all US automakers with the exception of GM. Don’t mind that nearly $700 million loss last quarter.

Comment by Mr. Banker
Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-22 11:56:37

If you take off the rose-colored Musk glasses, you’ll see that Tesla is going to hit some hard times. Aside from their capital woes, they ultimately need to sell lots of cars to make the company work.

For the past few years, they have really been the only game in town with a high-end EV, but that is soon to change.

A good friend of mine takes his cars very seriously, and owns a Tesla. If you ask him if he would buy another, he shrugs his shoulders…maybe. He definitely would own another EV, but he’s not convinced that he would buy another Tesla.

1. Lots of other luxury car makers are coming out with EVs in the coming years–Audi, Porsche, Jaguar, Mercedes (in addition to a growing number of more affordable cars);
2. He was less than impressed with the “fit and finish” of his Tesla;
3. Getting anything fixed (mainly fit/finish issues) on his Tesla was a nightmare without having any dealerships.
4. Other than the charging network (that others can and will develop), Tesla doesn’t have any “secret sauce” technology that will keep their cars far ahead of the pack. It’s foolish to think that one of the auto makers can’t build an EV to compete.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-22 13:11:29

Tesla is a one trick pony auto manufacturer. The others have gas, diesel, hybrid and electric. I’m convinced Tesla is going BK, with some other automaker picking up the pieces at a fire sale.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-22 13:49:24

I’m not convinced that they are going BK. HOWEVER, I wouldn’t be surprised if they fall into such financial difficulties that they are picked up by another auto major at a low price.

At the same time, there is a tremendous amount of Kool Aid being drunk about the quality of their car, business, and leader.
There is no way they should be valued at such a huge premium to other auto manufacturers. They simply aren’t that special.

Now, Space X, on the other hand has a huge competitive advantage (re-using booster rockets) relative to the status quo way to launch sh*t into space…I’d love to own a piece of that company.

Comment by bob
2018-02-22 18:29:25

“I’m not convinced that they are going BK. HOWEVER, I wouldn’t be surprised if they fall into such financial difficulties that they are picked up by another auto major at a low price.”

At their current market cap nobody will buy them, and even at a much lower price the buyer would have to assume all of Tesla’s debt. Makes more sense for a buyer to wait for BK and buy pieces of Tesla, like the name or the charging network, for pennies on the dollar. I can’t imagine anybody would want the substandard Fremont plant - everybody else is smart enough to know that auto manufacturing in a state like California makes no sense. Nor the Nevada battery factory boondoggle.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-22 20:25:50

Rental Watch, yes, all these companies say they are coming out with an EV soon. But it is always in the future. To date, the only real competitor is the Chevy Bolt, which is a mighty fine car. I may purchase a Bolt myself. The newer Leafs are looking interesting, but their battery technology isn’t that appealing to me.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-22 20:23:13

I used to wonder about the cash burn situation, but looking over last quarter’s improvement leads me to believe they will do just fine. Last quarter’s cash burn was $276 million. The quarter before that was $1.4 billion. They seem to be turning the corner pretty quickly. Bloomberg’s model 3 tracker is showing a pretty steep ramp and they are at 1000 model 3s per week, each of which is going for about $60k with healthy margins:


Model S and X demand is still way out there.

92% of Tesla owners plan to buy another Tesla. 55% will buy a model 3:


If Tesla does have issues, Apple could buy them (where did project Titan go?) or possibly a Chinese company or Tata motors. Tesla will be just fine. The thing that will be interesting about Tesla is how they monetize revenue from their charging stations. When they get several hundred thousands of model 3s on the road, they are going to basically have a nationwide gas station revenue. It’s not dissimilar to how Apple brings in lots of revenue not just from the sale of the device, but from the app store. Tesla will sell the car, but it will make a lot more by selling the electricity to the drivers over the lifetime of the car.

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Comment by oxide
2018-02-23 06:28:03

So you think that Tesla owners will have to fuel up exclusively at Tesla stations — for the next 10-15 years?

Imagine if Toyota told its drivers they could only get gas from a Shell station. Customers would get range anxiety and Toyota would get sued for monopolistic practices very quickly.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-23 08:21:31

So you think that Tesla owners will have to fuel up exclusively at Tesla stations — for the next 10-15 years?

They wouldn’t have to, but no one else is even close when it comes to building out infrastructure. Tesla’s infrastructure is fantastic where I live, and it’s not even urban. I was going to buy a $10k Chevy Spark EV, but the CCS/SAE network is extremely limited.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-02-23 08:44:29

Oxide, I spoke too soon. It looks like Tesla’s current stance is “Tesla is committed to ensuring that Supercharger will never be a profit center.”

So, it seems–at least for the moment–that Tesla is not going to try and make a profit out of charging. However, it is possible that once they vertically integrate with solar and power walls that their electricity costs would be less than what electricity costs in that particular state/county. In other words, they could sell electricity at parity and still make money. This becomes a very interesting proposition when they start rolling out their semi trucks and chargers.

Comment by oxide
2018-02-23 10:00:43

will never be a profit center

Yeah, I bet they use that line in bars to pick up liberal women. :roll: Tesla went public in 2010. I don’t think the stockholders will appreciate that.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-22 20:47:17

Housing my friends.

Sequim, WA Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Housing Correction Expands Across Pacific Northwest


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Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-22 12:01:17

Case and point from my prior post (which hasn’t come through yet):


If a grease monkey can cobble together an EV from spare parts (including a Chevy Volt battery) to do 0-60 in <3 seconds, what do you think the engineers from Porshe/Mercedes/Audi/BMW can come up with?

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-22 14:17:53

Probably more overpriced, unreliable, convoluted eurotrash that depreciates rapidly and is expensive and difficult to repair.

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Comment by Anonymous
2018-02-22 12:14:11

So have the manufacturers agreed upon a charging standard? (Size/shape of the connectors, voltage, etc.)

Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-22 12:27:41

Not that I’m aware of, but big plans are in the works by players with enormous amounts of money…


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Comment by Rental Watch
2018-02-22 12:40:12

BTW, the charging network isn’t a dream…VW is REQUIRED to spend $2B on the charging network per their diesel scandal settlement.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-22 14:05:17

Don’t mind that nearly $700 million loss last quarter.

Or the fact that they still haven’t figured out how to mass produce a car. Looks like they are STILL assembling the Model 3 by hand.

Comment by Sean
2018-02-22 17:25:44

The Model 3, IMO, is going to determine the fate of Tesla. If, and it’s still a big if, you can create a simple electric sedan at the MSRP price of a Camry you’ll dominate the market for years to come. But if it comes out and fails (low power, inability to get parts, low Consumer Reports score) it’ll be a death nail to Tesla.

The S and X and niche cars and they can still sell them for those folks. The 3 going to the mass consumer, with a focus on quality and reliability, will be a game changer for Tesla. (Changing it in one direction or another)

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Comment by BearCat
2018-02-22 18:18:47

Dude, MSRP for Camrys start at ~$24K, while the Model 3 starts at $35K, but if you want one now, it’s >$50K.

It’s like the Bolt — a cute little car, but not worth considering without all the incentives (~$38K base for a car that would cost <$20K with an ICE)

Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-22 22:12:08

One thing to consider is that electric cars are fast, much faster than a Camry with a 4 banger. You would need a V6, 300HP Camry to have comparable performance.

Of course this is irrelevant if Tesla can’t mass produce them.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-23 03:55:05

electric cars are fast…

Acceleration. It’s what you need after a long and meaningless day in the cubicle.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-02-23 10:30:01

Acceleration. It’s what you need after a long and meaningless day in the cubicle.

Actually some truth to that :-).

Comment by BearCat
2018-02-23 11:26:06

Yeah, but not always when you want it — supposedly Teslas are great at 0->60, but not 50->70….

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-02-23 12:19:40

True, above 100mph it’s pretty easy to outrun a P100D with a really fast car. But I tend to get my enjoyment at stop lights and lower speeds. I’m a good candidate for a Tesla or equivalent someday. These young guys that enjoy going out and running 160+ on the interstate make me nervous.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-02-22 12:09:14

In the past decade I have spent less than $10 at Amazon (roto-split replacement blade).

Jeff Bezos has enough money. He’s not getting any more of mine.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-22 12:27:22

I’ve said before this idea that companies don’t need to make money is a dangerous lie. Now we have Amazon drivers crapping in peoples driveways because they can’t get a break. I read the other day what they do to writers and musicians because of their near monopoly status, along with Apple and Google. These are the modern day robber-barons.

Comment by oxide
2018-02-22 12:33:39

Do you have a link for what they are doing to writers and musicians? I’m curious.

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-22 16:22:56

“I’m curious.”

So am I. It looks as if Amazon might be a bit chintzy with royalties.

Ran across this, from 2014 …


Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-22 16:31:29

A snippet from a link that I posted but is yet to appear …

“Our issue with Amazon is not personal; it is simply this: its dominance of the book market is hurting that market and has the potential to all but destroy it in the long run by making it impossible for authors to make a living. The fact that Amazon is using self-published authors as loss leaders belies its claims of support for the literary community, and demonstrates its dedication to profit, not to authors.”

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-22 13:16:40

“Now we have Amazon drivers crapping in peoples driveways because they can’t get a break.”

This isn’t surprising. Amazon’s “contractors” are just a variant of Uber, except the customers are packages instead of people. There is a seemingly never ending supply of suckers in this country who cannot do a simple math equation to distinguish profit from loss.

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Comment by oxide
2018-02-22 14:40:21

I”m not sure I’d call them suckers. Deep down they surely know that they are destroying their cars to make very little money. But the car isn’t dead yet, and those drivers need the money *now*. It’s the piecework economy…

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-02-22 14:42:29

“There is a seemingly never ending supply of suckers in this country who cannot do a simple math equation to distinguish profit from loss.”

My customer base.


Comment by redmondjp
2018-02-22 17:26:15

Yes, those Amazon Flex drivers need to realize that the reason they can get those delivery routes is that none of the bigger players (USPS, and so on) want them because they are unprofitable.

Comment by Puggs
2018-02-22 14:01:28

Competition is what makes capitalism great if left alone to compete.

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Comment by In Colorado
2018-02-22 14:08:58

I’ve said before this idea that companies don’t need to make money is a dangerous lie.

If Uncle Sam doesn’t have to make ends meet, why should Amazon? /sarc

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-02-22 13:11:21

“Amazon’s P/E is now 323.”

Strange thing it is considering they’re unprofitable.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-02-23 03:59:18

LOL. The E stands for Estimated Future Earnings = Complete Lie.

Comment by ironknee
2018-02-22 14:14:10

When the whole thing gets flushed, (((the media))) will just blame Trump and eeeevil capitalism. As if what’s been going on in the last 20 years resembles anything other than a corporate/government kleptocratic partnership, led by a select group of (((people))).

Comment by azdude
2018-02-22 16:54:38

trump the fall guy. but they say the FED isnt political.

Comment by redmondjp
2018-02-22 17:24:01

One of my theories is exactly that - they are OK with Trump becoming president because they will make him the fall guy, and as a bonus, it will reinforce their message that non-politicians have no business running for president.

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Comment by palmetto
2018-02-22 18:06:43

This was interesting: Trump Administration considering doing something about student loan bankruptcy.


I’d be cool with it if they did something like claw back the money from all the firms that hired H1Bs and told them to duke it out with the foreign nationals they hired.

Interesting comment:

“I genuinely know half a dozen libs who would vote Trump in a heartbeat if he did something about student loans.”

Ha-ha, whaddya wanna bet he uses this as a campaign promise in the next election? If he lasts that long. Jeff Sessions can bite my patootie.

Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-02-22 11:05:54

Austin(Barton Hills), TX Housing Prices Crater 25% YOY On Ballooning Mortgage Failures


*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-22 12:31:54





Abilene Metro 2% -1% 2% $159,000
Alice Metro -1% -1% 2% $139,000
Amarillo Metro 2% 2% 5% $194,410
Andrews Metro 2% 9% 18% $218,500
Athens Metro 6% 2% 6% $238,500
Austin Metro -1% -3% 0% $324,800
Barton Hills 0% -5% -25% $517,450
Bay City Metro -6% 2% -6% $205,500
Beaumont Metro 0% -9% -3% $150,000
Beeville Metro 2% -5% -12% $149,900
Big Spring Metro -1% -2% -1% $149,000
Borger Metro -9% -18% -14% $89,950
Brenham Metro 0% 8% 6% $318,000
Brownsville Metro 0% 0% 7% $180,000
Brownwood Metro -3% -5% 0% $135,000
College Station Metro -1% -5% -5% $265,200
Corpus Christi Metro 2% 0% 0% $219,250
Corsicana Metro -3% -2% 4% $149,250
Dallas-Fort Worth Metro 1% 0% 7% $320,000
Del Rio Metro -3% 0% 2% $169,700
Dumas Metro – – –
Eagle Pass Metro 3% 1% -4% $149,000
El Campo Metro 0% 0% 3% $188,000
El Paso Metro -1% -1% 1% $162,000
Fredericksburg Metro -1% -5% 2% $457,975
Gainesville Metro 9% 5% 7% $299,250
Hereford Metro – – –
Houston Metro 1% 1% 4% $293,990
Huntsville Metro 1% 2% 7% $202,500
Jacksonville Metro 8% 15% 6% $229,000
Kerrville Metro 0% 7% 20% $360,000
Killeen Metro 1% 6% 8% $169,900
Kingsville Metro -5% -4% -7% $129,000
Lamesa Metro – – –
Laredo Metro -2% 0% 7% $182,000
Levelland Metro 0% 0% -15% $149,450
Longview Metro -1% -1% 1% $162,900
Lubbock Metro -4% -5% 5% $189,000
Lufkin Metro 0% 2% 6% $169,000
Marshall Metro -4% -2% 12% $189,950
McAllen Metro -1% -1% 4% $181,990
Midland Metro 0% 7% 18% $280,400
Mineral Wells Metro – – –
Mount Pleasant Metro 3% -5% 0% $179,950
Nacogdoches Metro -7% -10% -6% $184,000
Odessa Metro 0% 0% 6% $190,300
Palestine Metro -1% -3% 4% $155,000
Pampa Metro -1% 5% 5% $115,000
Paris Metro 6% 1% 21% $169,900
Pecos Metro – – –
Plainview Metro 0% -4% 25% $117,000
Port Lavaca Metro 0% 7% 5% $209,000
Raymondville Metro – – –
Rio Grande City Metro -4% 1% -3% $129,000
San Angelo Metro -3% -5% -2% $185,750
San Antonio Metro 0% -1% 4% $265,000
Sherman Metro 2% 4% 14% $264,990
Snyder Metro 2% 2% -9% $132,450
Stephenville Metro -2% -3% 14% $219,450
Sulphur Springs Metro 1% 0% -6% $166,500
Sweetwater Metro 0% -7% 5% $120,000
Texarkana Metro -1% -6% 0% $139,900
Tyler Metro -2% -6% 7% $235,000
Uvalde Metro -7% 1% 2% $199,500
Vernon Metro – – –
Victoria Metro -3% 7% 10% $209,000
Waco Metro 1% 2% 11% $185,950
Wichita Falls Metro -5% -3% 2% $106,750

More red than green.

Barton Hills 0% -5% -25% $517,450

Comment by Taxpayers
2018-02-22 19:45:03

Waco is due the that hivtv show
Fixer upper

Comment by oxide
2018-02-23 06:32:03

Fixr upper is going down. They are moving on. And people have had it with shiplap and sliding barn doors.

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Comment by taxpayer
2018-02-22 12:02:07

is Toronto an oil town?
what’s their excuse for tanking?

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-02-22 12:03:47

Prices got too high.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-02-22 13:18:53

Sum Ting Wong
Wi Tu Hi

Comment by redmondjp
2018-02-22 17:27:22

Ho Lee Fook

Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-02-22 14:36:23

Santa Barbara County, CA Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY


*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

Comment by azdude
2018-02-22 16:30:25

i miss living on equity.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-23 00:58:00

Anything too good to be true eventually ends.

Comment by Taxpayers
2018-02-22 16:45:25

My county assessments ranging from 0 to 6% on old single family homes.
Never seen that trick

Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-02-22 17:42:48

Oakton, VA Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As Housing Correction Ravages Northern Virginia/DC Area


*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-02-22 18:00:09

Led Zeppelin — The Train Kept A-Rollin:


Comment by palmetto
2018-02-22 18:25:17

Don’t let the door hitya where the good lord splitya, warmonger.


I also read today where Trump regrets firing Flynn. Yah, whoo-boy there, Don, the guy stuck with you every step of the way through a grueling campaign and you gave him the back of your hand just because Pence whined about him. You’ll never have another national security advisor who could do the job you (and more importantly, we) needed done.

Payback’s a beetch. I’d lie to Pence all day long.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-22 19:59:29

Charles & Eddie: Would I Lie to You?


Comment by jeff
2018-02-22 18:52:05

That Hogg won’t fly.

Comment by azdude
2018-02-22 19:11:50

do u remember jeff the drunk from howard stern show?

Comment by Obama Goons
2018-02-22 19:18:17

I just want to know how fat the check was. Dogs fly only in CO. Hogs are anchored and slaughtered. Who was predicted to win the 2016 election?

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-22 19:33:59

Incredible, isn’t it? There’s also the story about the sheriff’s deputy who just stood outside the school building picking his nose while the shooting was going on. He resigns with a full pension apparently.

Comment by Taxpayers
2018-02-23 06:00:19

Same in Orlando,waited outside hours in full armor

Comment by jeff
2018-02-23 06:56:16

I can’t find it on youtube anymore but there was a high school aged girl outside the Parkland shooting at about sundown who was interviewed by a sports reporter who was down here covering a major league team and just drove over to the school (he was not scheduled to be there).

The girl was a regular high school kid, talked and acted like it. She said she was leaving the school and ended up right next to the kid who the shooting has been, well the panzy. She said she knew him and looked at him and said I thought it would have been you, according to her he looked at her with a drugged out look and said “huh?”

After that she said she heard more shooting on the other side of the school so there had to be more than one shooter.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-23 07:06:43

Saw that one. Can’t find it now myself. But I bet you can find it over on Steemit.

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Comment by jeff
2018-02-23 10:06:00

“Saw that one. Can’t find it now myself”

That might make some people cut the sheriff’s deputy who just stood outside the school building some slack. He might have been looking at a couple of Deep State contract killers firing live or dummy rounds.



Comment by redmondjp
2018-02-23 10:06:33

Contrarian view: Sheriff probably had no body armor on (too uncomfortable for daily wear; most of them only wear it in SWAT situations), and only has a pistol (4″ barrel, so no accuracy farther than 50 feet if that) with two extra clips.

Going into a situation blind, with no backup, and shooter has a long-barreled rifle with which he can easily pick you off from the other end of a long school hallway.

I would think twice about that myself. You have got to look at both sides of the story here.

Comment by tresho
2018-02-24 08:46:35

You have got to look at both sides of the story here.
You have to get all the facts, which have been trickling out ever so slowly.
with no backup???

(CNN)When Coral Springs police officers arrived at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, on February 14 in the midst of the school shooting crisis, many officers were surprised to find not only that Broward County Sheriff’s Deputy Scot Peterson, the armed school resource officer, had not entered the building, but that three other Broward County Sheriff’s deputies were also outside the school and had not entered, Coral Springs sources tell CNN. The deputies had their pistols drawn and were behind their vehicles, the sources said, and not one of them had gone into the school.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2018-02-24 23:11:08

Reminds me of the scene in Rambo where the leaders are trying to get the National Guard guys to go into the cave after him.

Comment by palmetto
2018-02-22 19:56:39

China’s AIG moment has arrived! Jared Kushner misses out!


Well, of course you realize that this means the stock market will go to the moon tomorrow!

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-23 01:27:35

Cockroach Theory suggests more China bailouts to come.

Comment by azdude
2018-02-23 07:47:21

Hasn’t the dollar been propped up by foreigners such as china having to print and buy treasuries so their exports dont fall off a cliff? If the dollar tanked there mercantilist would get less of their own money in the exchange with the PBOC. So china really got the inflation in that deal.

After all u would think that printing like 4 trillion to buy assets would tank the dollar but it actually was stable or rose during the great recovery.

Comment by cactus
2018-02-23 13:56:26

After all u would think that printing like 4 trillion to buy assets would tank the dollar but it actually was stable or rose during the great recovery.”

I think the US was going into a hard deflation so printing just replaced the money lost on already inflated assets .

Inflation is the preferred choice of extreme debtors.

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Comment by rms
2018-02-23 15:23:02

“Inflation is the preferred choice of extreme debtors.”

It’s the easiest way out.

Comment by aNYCdj
Comment by azdude
2018-02-23 06:48:07

why do people risk seeing all their gains evaporate by thinking the party will never end?

Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-02-23 07:37:39

Sacramento, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Inventory Floods Market


*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-02-23 08:16:29

With so many delusional thinkers buying stocks, I don’t understand why academic eggheads believe markets are efficient. Or has that quaint belief gone out of fashion?

The market is ‘finally getting the joke’ about the Fed: Guggenheim’s Minerd
in World Economy News 22/02/2018

At the end of last year, investors were still focused on the prospect of three rate increases in 2018. But additional fiscal stimulus and signs of wage growth has some market participants looking for four rate increases. If that expectation is affirmed by the Fed, said Minerd, some might suspect five to six hikes could be in store. And that probably won’t go down well.

“That will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” he said. Rate increase expectations would lift yields for government paper, hitting the brakes on stocks and junk bonds. Shaken investors would tinker with their portfolios after their “faith in ultralow rates and continued central bank liquidity, comes into question.”

Comment by azdude
2018-02-23 09:41:46

do u think the all the free money the rich got from the FED’s market levitation plan will trickle down to the minions?

Comment by tresho
2018-02-24 08:47:37

the minions are in an exclusive club. You and I aren’t in that one.

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Comment by CryptoNick
2018-02-23 08:58:29

Are you tuning out the growing chorus of financial regulators warning on the cryptobubble?

Central Banks
Fed’s Dudley Warns on Dangerous ‘Speculative Mania’ Around Cryptocurrencies
The New York Fed president appeared to ramp up central bankers’ warnings on the issue
By Michael S. Derby
Updated Feb. 22, 2018 7:26 p.m. ET

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley warned that investing in privately issued digital money such as bitcoin could end in big financial losses for those involved.

“There is a bit of a, I would say, speculative mania around cryptocurrencies in terms of their valuations, which I view as pretty dangerous, because I don’t really see what the actual true underlying value of some of these cryptocurrencies actually is in practice,” Mr. Dudley said Thursday in New York.

To Read the Full Story

Comment by Doug
2018-02-23 21:16:36

I’m amazed this blog is still going. I remember being here back in 2008 when the previous bubble had burst and thinking that was Armageddon. It was fascinating to see the implosion of all the built-up McMansions in California, Florida and so on. To my horror, the whole thing began again around 2013 and we’re in the midst of another bubble. Although this time without the subprime mortgages, right?

Comment by rms
2018-02-23 23:08:34

“Although this time without the subprime mortgages, right?”

This time taxpayers are on the directly hook.

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