The Climate Is Changing
A report from The Oregonian. “Portland’s apartment-building binge appears to be headed off a cliff. Applications for new housing developments have nearly ground to a halt over the past year, and there are plenty of reasons for that. Construction costs have ballooned, as have land prices. The glut of new construction, meanwhile, has taken the wind out of rising rents, at least at the high end. Developers say the market has shifted dramatically since offsets were created. Rents in high-end buildings have been stagnant over the last year, which has prompted some landlords to throw in a few weeks of free rent to land tenants.”
“Close to 10,000 apartments were in the development pipeline before inclusionary zoning took effect, said Tyler Bump, the city economist. Half of those are near approval to break ground. Those projects could keep a steady stream of housing coming online for the next two years. Some, however, may simply not happen. It’s not uncommon for developers to drop projects because of unforeseen logistical or financial problems.”
The Mountain View Voice in California. “For Freddie Farris, 60, the golden years aren’t going quite as planned. For years now, Farris’ family has resided on the second floor of the Del Medio Manor Apartments. But in recent days, the family has faced the harrowing possibility they soon could be out on the street. Her landlord wanted to raise her $1,200-a-month unit rent by $500. Then she saw the row with her sister’s $1,650-per-month, 2-bedroom unit. That would go up by $900 a month.”
“The rent increases come despite the Del Medio apartments already being quite profitable, even under the city’s new rent control program. Last year, the property earned more than $1 million after expenses, according to filings made to the city. The point isn’t the dollar amount, but rather the fact that the return on the property is now capped and will decrease over time, said Elizabeth Lindsay, who owns Del Medio with about 12 other investors. Her father, uncle and grandfather built the 105-unit apartment complex in 1974.”
“Lindsay points out that the cost of vendors, contractors, employees and pretty much everything else is steadily rising in spite of rents being restricted. She describes the push for rent increases as the only recourse left for her and her partners. ‘No investment that has a cap on it is a good investment. That means you can’t have upward mobility on your investment,’ she said. ‘Every month that I’m not getting rent increases, I’m just bleeding money.’”
“What about the $1 million in income after all expenses? Lindsay points out the the property is worth $60 million at least. Getting $1 million a year is like a 1.7 percent return on that value, she said. ‘This is only a little better than a savings account,’ she wrote in an email. ‘Why would any landlord go through what we do for a 1.7 percent return?’”
The Chicago Tribune in Illinois. “After setting a record for apartment construction in 2017, downtown Chicago will take a breather — but not for long. While only about 3,000 apartment units are expected to be completed this year, developers next year could challenge the record number of downtown apartments — 4,350 units — built in 2017, Integra Realty Resources executives said. The firm projects that about 4,200 units will be completed in 2019. The rate of downtown apartment construction is being closely watched amid concerns of an oversupply.”
“Years of ambitious construction of, and investing in, apartments have made the largest deals — $200 million or above — challenging to finance, said Ron DeVries, an Integra senior managing director. Some investors are looking to the suburbs in search of higher returns, DeVries said. After condominium development ground to a halt during the last recession, some of the first big condo projects in Chicago are under construction or marketing units for sale. That comes after just 1,800 condos were marketed for sale in the past seven years, said Gail Lissner, an Integra managing director.”
“One of the big new projects is 1000M, a 74-story tower designed by Helmut Jahn at 1000 S. Michigan Ave. Developers began marketing 323 units for sale in the fourth quarter of 2017. ‘We think the market was ripe,’ said Jerry Karlik, a principal at New York-based JK Equities, one of the tower’s developers. ‘With rental prices hitting $4 per square foot in luxury buildings, we think it’s the right market for a premier condo building,’ Karlik said. ‘It’s an underserved area, and there hasn’t been much built since the last (real estate) cycle.’”
The Express News in Texas. “The future is uncertain for a proposed apartment complex that was expected to bring new life to the near West Side after a partnership that includes local company 210 Development Group lost the property through foreclosure. 210 Development plans to buy back the property, at 700 West Commerce St., and continue to build Vitré, a $45 million, 242-unit apartment complex with 5,000 square feet of ground-floor retail, spokeswoman Holly Thoman said. They are pursuing a partnership with the San Antonio Housing Authority to bring an affordable housing component to the project, she said.”
“The city awarded the project a $3.8 million incentive package in September 2014, but the only part that has been disbursed so far is a $968,000 construction loan, said Veronica Garcia, interim assistant director of the city’s Center City Development and Operations Department. The 2.1-acre property was sold at foreclosure auction on February 6 to VDP Solutions, a company that shares an address with Brevet Capital Management, a New York investment company with a regional office in San Antonio, according to county property records. The sale price was $4.5 million.”
“The foreclosure concerned an $11 million loan that 210 Development’s partnership, Vitre Development Partners, took from another entity named Brevet Direct Lending-Short Duration Fund, according to the county records. The foreclosure sale was part of a ‘restructuring process,’ Thoman said. In 2016, the development partnership ‘paused its plans’ on the project in order to develop it as mixed-income housing rather than as a market-rate complex, according to a news release.”
“‘I don’t think we necessarily chose to go through (the foreclosure), but after discussion with the partnership and the other people involved, it was decided that this was the best path forward in order to achieve the structure we need in order to move forward,’ she said.”
From Bisnow on Texas. “Has San Antonio’s Multifamily Investment Market Peaked? The forecast for renters in San Antonio this year may be great, but a mix of economic factors already is making it tougher to invest in multifamily properties. The market is fairly good for renters. But a combination of factors — changes to the tax code, higher interest rates and a tightening lending environment — could spell the beginning of a more challenging investment picture. At Bisnow’s Multifamily Explosion event, those on both the finance and development side of the multifamily equation agreed the climate is changing.”
“‘Just over the past several months, Treasurys are increasing, spreads are slower to come in. It’s affecting our leverage,’ Westmount Realty Capital Managing Director Michael Anderson said. Westmount has always been a lower-leverage group, so interest rates are an issue, Anderson said. Lately, in some markets, the 10-year fixed rate is bumping up against cap rates. That provides no delta at all in Westmount’s deals.”
“CFH Investment Partners Vice President Benoit Rochard said he has begun to see deals with higher interest rates that are cash-flow constrained or debt-coverage constrained. Rochard has promised a client 80% financing, only to scrub the numbers and see it was only going to be 70% or 75% financing. ‘This is just within the last four to six weeks,’ Rochard said. ‘And it’s all due to interest rates.’”
“Bridge lenders like Pender Capital are less concerned with interest rates since they tend to fill a gap in financing a proposed project. Co-founder Zach Murphy is more concerned with overly optimistic underwriting for returns, especially out of equity lenders. Debt structuring is fine, but equity lending is unrealistic, Murphy said.”
“‘You start seeing ‘blue sky’ underwriting from equity over and over and over again,’ Murphy said. ‘The concept looks great on paper, in black and white, as long as you can underwrite 5% rent growth for the next 10 years. That sounds familiar — 2006, 2007 — but it’s probably not smart.’”
“San Antonio has had some amazing population growth, but it will not last forever, Murphy said. Suggesting the city is going to have 100% growth in rent is simply untenable. If the investment cycle was a baseball game, multifamily would be in the 14th inning, San Antonio-based GrayStreet Partners Managing Partner Kevin Covey said. The game is tied, and it looks like the outcome will be similar for the coming year, if not years.”
‘Just over the past several months, Treasurys are increasing, spreads are slower to come in. It’s affecting our leverage,’ Westmount Realty Capital Managing Director Michael Anderson said. Westmount has always been a lower-leverage group, so interest rates are an issue, Anderson said. Lately, in some markets, the 10-year fixed rate is bumping up against cap rates. That provides no delta at all in Westmount’s deals.
Oh my Jeebus Michael, you got no delta!
Might have to get a real job.
‘I don’t think we necessarily chose to go through (the foreclosure), but after discussion with the partnership and the other people involved, it was decided that this was the best path forward in order to achieve the structure we need in order to move forward’
You know Holly, I think you did chose to stop paying your mortgage. And you go right back into the saddle. I wonder who got dinged? From the last link:
‘”I don’t do much Class-A, but with B and C, there’s always been healthy demand,” said Hunt Vice President Tony Talamas, who leverages Freddie Mac’s small balance multifamily loans.’
‘Every month that I’m not getting rent increases, I’m just bleeding money.’ What about the $1 million in income after all expenses? Lindsay points out the the property is worth $60 million at least. Getting $1 million a year is like a 1.7 percent return on that value, she said. ‘This is only a little better than a savings account,’ she wrote in an email. ‘Why would any landlord go through what we do for a 1.7 percent return?’
What did you pay for the shack Lizbeth? This demonstrates a few things. One, people in California and all over are just greedy bashtards. Two, bubbles just make you poor and then they pop. This situation is a perfect example. For decades the rent was enough. Along comes the bubble and she thinks she’s getting bled? Everybody loses, and she’ll stop paying off her refi loan and walk away.
Eyes have a feeling, … somehow, someway, … she might bee the recipient one fine day of a “Jesus.moment”, … Lord willing, & the creek don’t rise
Punctuation, used appropriately, is your friend.
just.soes.ya.know, eye don’t spell correctly either, (sometimes)
The lure of meaning and purpose
[The true believer’s] innermost craving is for a new life - a rebirth - or, failing this, a chance to acquire new elements of pride, confidence, hope, a sense of purpose and worth by identification with a holy cause. An active mass-movement offers them opportunities for both. If they join the movement as full converts they are reborn to a new life in its close-knit collective body, or if attracted as sympathizers they find elements of pride, confidence, and purpose by identifying with the efforts, achievements, and prospects of the movement.
Eric Hoffer … ( regarding punctuation true.believers ) just.kiddin’ !
Wow, someone want you to write in a readable way and they are a delusional member of a mass movement because they lack an inner self? Count me as a member. Your posts are unreadable, and not as charming or clever as you think.
You and BSD are getting schooled by hwy. He (and I say he because I have met him) has forgotten more than you both know combined.
Housing my good friend.
Lone Tree, CO Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Speculators Flood Market With Inventory
https://www.movoto.com/lone-tree-co/market-trends/
Capitalization is the difference between helping your Uncle Jack off a horse and helping your uncle jack off a horse.
haha!
“Let’s eat grandma.”
Commas, they save lives.
“Eyes have a feeling, … somehow, someway, … she might bee the recipient one fine day of a “Jesus.moment”,
“Jesus moment”. Bahahahahaha … Jesus was about compassion and redemption and forgiveness.
Here’s to hoping she will be the recipient of a bankers moment; With a bankers moment there is no compassion, there is no redemption, there is no forgiveness. In fact, there is no moment at all; A banker’s moment is a parcel of time that, if engineered correctly, can spread out over a lifetime.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
” … and she’ll stop paying off her refi loan and walk away.”
Banker$, dime a dozen, equity monie$ given bye banker$ on honest.John appraisals, pricele$$, … ( cue, Manafort real.e$tate fund$ )
Housing my good friend.
Sacramento, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Inventory Floods Market
https://www.zillow.com/east-sacramento-sacramento-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
The 1.7% yearly profit would be 5.1% if the apartment building was worth $20M instead of $60M. So Lizzie is basically complaining that the market value of the building went up too much. Poor Lizzie!
Elizabeth Lindsay also reminds me of the people that complain that their property tax rose. But the only reason the property tax rose was that market value of of the property rose, meaning that owners had a huge capital gain.
By the way, Elizabeth Lindsay also has had a huge increase in value since 1974, BUT because of California proposition 13 her increase in property tax has been miniscule. But still she is whining about her poverty. Poor Lizzie!
This greedy spoiled B***h. Inherited a fortune and complaining about her poor returns on her grandfather’s money!
While she’s hiking the rent on people that haven’t inherited one thin dime no doubt. Sickening lack of morals and this spoiled woman is proud to crow in public to a reporter.
Her tenants are faced with overnight rent increases of 42% and 55% respectively, but SHE’S the one bleeding money. Got it.
Something tells me Elizabeth is about to get hers. Not from me or anyone else on this board. But from someone local.
Good thing she’s in California and not Chicago. She might be dead by now.
Good thing you’ve already cut and paste this in the threads, Ben. Saved many of us form doing the same.
Unbelievable.
Lindsay can shove it. She should be permanently and personally banned from buying, “investing” in or selling real estate of any and all kind. What a conniving, lying, thieving, despicable human being.
She needs to be put on a leash.
Let’s hope she hasn’t (and won’t) spread her mongrel behavior outside of California. Keep her ruination economics to the locals she’s already screwed, and not to the locals of other states and communities.
I’ve never written a nasty, scathing letter to anyone in my life.
This may very well prompt the first. I need to do some additional reading first.
‘These proposed increases range from 9 percent up to 56 percent’.
An individual should have the right to charge whatever they want in relation to rents and their tenants. Conversely, the tenets have a right to move to another location if they so desire. Rent control always distorts markets and pricing.
The article has numerous comments from the renters.
‘For Freddie Farris, 60, the golden years aren’t going quite as planned. After having to leave her postal carrier job due to a disability, Farris thought she could spend a little more time caring for her family while her pension kicked in. They needed her help — her sister had a debilitating stroke years ago, and her 83-year-old mother, who shares an apartment with her, can no longer walk on her own’.
“God, this means a lot of things now that we just can’t do. It at least means we have to move and I have no idea where we’d go,” Farris said. “They can still just keep increasing the rent and eventually we can’t afford it.”
‘If the increase goes forward, it would be tantamount to an eviction, she said. She thought of her brother, who is homeless and always trying to save money to afford an apartment, but never quite managing enough to secure a lease. Her heart dropped as she realized that could soon be the fate for the rest of the family’.
Keith Ellis, a 43-year-old acting housing manager at Stanford University, told the Voice he couldn’t afford the $400 a month extra being requested on his apartment. He has lived at Del Medio Manor since 2014.
‘Marion Pauck, an 89-year-old widow, explained that more than half her income from Social Security and her husband’s pension is already going toward rent. If the proposed $750-a-month rent increase goes through on her apartment, she would have no choice but to move’.
“I really don’t to want to find a new place to live and start all over,” Pauck said. “I would try to find a new place in the general area, but that would be hard. I’m old; I need to be near my doctors at the clinic. They care whether I live or die.”
Perhaps the landlady, and her partners, are greedy scum. So what, pay her price or move on. Over time she’ll have to drop prices to whatever the market demands or deal with empty units. Rent control always creates these sort of problems and adding more restrictions only makes matters worse.
I’m also getting tired of living in a Country where everyone has some sort of tear-jerking story that they happily share with reporters in relation to these sort of articles.They make it seem as if they’re only choice is to continue living in this complex, at current rates, or die.
One other thing, how did all you communists end up on Ben’s site?
“What about the $1 million in income after all expenses? Lindsay points out the the property is worth $60 million at least. Getting $1 million a year is like a 1.7 percent return on that value, she said. ‘This is only a little better than a savings account,’ she wrote in an email. ‘Why would any landlord go through what we do for a 1.7 percent return?’”
Then sell it for $60 million and put it into stocks that yield 4% - 5.5% and have a strong history of maintaining or increasing payouts.
‘Then sell it for $60 million ‘
She can’t. She owns it with about 12 other investors, so at most she could sell only a partial interest which would be substantially discounted if she could even find a buyer.
It is interesting that when the estate tax was discussed here, most everyone was against it.
She probably already sold parts of it off to these 12 investors.
Nobody deserves cancer or terminal illness, but this kind of greedy, despicable human being would be more towards the front of the line if there was a “deserve” factor.
Lindsay points out the the property is worth $60 million at least. Getting $1 million a year is like a 1.7 percent return on that value, she said. ‘This is only a little better than a savings account,’ she wrote in an email. ‘Why would any landlord go through what we do for a 1.7 percent return?’
Uh, Lindsay? If you can get $60 million for the property then it’s time to sell it. I don’t think you’ll find anyone who’ll pay you that, but if you can get it, then take it.
On the other hand, “Why would any landlord go through what we do for a 1.7 percent return?” They wouldn’t, so don’t expect $60MM.
Do not forget the fact that they amortize the property, shielding lots of money from taxes. 1035 then on again and so on, let the heirs pay the tax. OH, they get a step up in basis, OUCH. No problem here.
Ha, ha, ha,
This Is What Life Without Retirement Savings Looks Like:
“Many people reaching retirement age don’t have the pensions that lots of workers in previous generations did, and often have not put enough money into their 401(k)s to live off of; the median savings in a 401(k) plan for people between the ages of 55 and 64 is currently just $15,000, according to the National Institute on Retirement Security …
Older Americans were the only demographic for whom poverty rates increased in a statistically significant way between 2015 and 2016, according to Census Bureau data. While poverty fell among people 18 and under and people 18 to 64 between 2015 and 2016, it rose to 14.5 percent for people over 65 …
This presents a worrying preview of what could befall millions of workers who will retire in the coming decades. If today’s seniors are struggling with retirement savings, what will become of the people of working age today, many of whom hold unsteady jobs and have patchwork incomes that leave little room for retirement savings? The current wave of senior poverty could just be the beginning.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2018/02/pensions-safety-net-california/553970/
Thanks for posting this article.
You mean, never before in human history have people gotten a lot poorer as they got a lot older?
This is the first time since the collapse of America’s private pension system starting in the 1980s.
“…the median savings in a 401(k) plan for people between the ages of 55 and 64 is currently just $15,000, according to the National Institute on Retirement Security …”
Wow. That’s sobering. I would say I’m shocked but I’m not. To think that HALF of those people have less than $15k is a staggering number.
And that’s only counting those that have a 401K. I’m guessing that most lucky duckies don’t have one.
Exactly. Less than 50% of people even have any exposure to stocks period, so the total number of people 55-64 who have less than $15,000 for retirement is truly eye-popping.
“Wow. That’s sobering. I would say I’m shocked but I’m not. To think that HALF of those people have less than $15k is a staggering number.”
You think it’s bad now? Its going to get worse.
How many people aged 30-60 paying exorbitant mortgages, rents, taxes, installment loans, medical bills today are going to have any money at all when they reach age 65?
One hundred million people can’t take their eyes off their devices to imagine their future and begin to plan for it.
A 401k is just something to cash out between jobs.
Gee, Apartment 101…
Whaddaya think all those empty apartments and condos populating cities and towns throughout America are for?
Full-on socialized housing is an almost sure thing. It’s all part of the globalist, money printers plan.
And by “socialized housing”, I don’t mean Section 8.
That will give today’s whining Millennial generation something real to bitch about. They’re going to find out first hand what it takes and costs to prop up an entitled and irresponsible generation.
Or they won’t…depending on whether they can stomach seeing many tens of thousands - or millions - of old people living and pooping in the street.
all those empty apartments
Read this and have a laugh:
“Continuum Partners, LLC was created in 1997 around a progressive idea that smart growth could actually lead to more profit.
Today, Continuum’s mission remains the same as it was when it started; to create human habitats of extraordinary character and enduring value.
We fully understand that our planet is a closed system. So we are committed to leading our industry towards new methods of development that are both economically viable and ecologically sustainable.”
http://continuumpartners.com/about/
This is the financing behind the building I’ve been working in since June of last year, which is scheduled for turnover by March 31st. Dean Electric got the contract on the next building, so I won’t be there much longer…
Egad. Such bullsh*t, 101.
Are you trying to kill me?
Must have Boulder connections somehow. Sounds like the latest excuse for developing land for limosine liberals and their ilk.
CORONA, Calif.—Roberta Gordon never thought she’d still be alive at age 76. She definitely didn’t think she’d still be working. But every Saturday, she goes down to the local grocery store and hands out samples, earning $50 a day, because she needs the money.
“I’m a working woman again,”
Uniquely American, that is fantastic that you’re doing that, you get any sleep?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIjo-dWE1Jg
Why are these poor older women not married to someone able to earn a real living? No family or friends helping to support them? Maybe these people “going solo” are incorrigible?
Maybe they were married to someone able to earn a living and that person is dead.
Maybe it’s due to the breakdown of the family unit.
Maybe they blew all their money on drugs and alcohol.
Maybe they’ve led a hedonistic lifestyle.
Maybe they ate out too often.
Maybe they bought too many cars too often.
___________________________
Maybe it’s none of the above.
Note: Up to 40% of all adults in the USA are not currently married.
There are going to be tens of millions of “Robertas” and “Roberts” out there by 2030-2040.
How are today’s two-wage earner families going to support all those solo people? Because they’re going to.
For decades, people flying solo have experienced a drastic decline in their living standards as two wage-earning households have effectively bid up the prices on everything.
Now, the shoe is about to be put on the other foot. Have two wage earner families thought about that? They should. They’d better.
A solution is to find a housemate who’s compatible. That really cuts down on expenses. Unfortunately there are a lot of sleazy people out there, so a good housemate is hard to find.
It would probably help if city zoning ordinances made more feasible to build micro-apartments designed for single residents at a reasonable cost so people don’t have to play Craig’s List Russian Roulette to with the roommate game.
No, “micro apartments” aren’t the answer. It’s not about shrinking the size of living quarters for human beings. That’s bubble math.
I guess I used the wrong verbiage. I don’t really care if it is micro-housing, just that the housing that is being built will be more geared towards the typical make-up of the American family, which are singles:
The bottom line of Making Room is this: Our current housing stock isn’t nearly as diverse as we are. While single people living alone make up 28% of our population, just .87% of our housing stock is studio apartments; 11.36% are one-bedroom homes. The most prevalent form of housing in America, an enormous 39.82%, is the three-bedroom house. “When people think about the household, they conjure up this image of two parents, the kids, and a dog,” says NBM curator Chrysanthe Broikos. “But that household type is only 20% of all households throughout the entire country.”
https://www.fastcompany.com/40534885/the-american-household-is-evolving-and-our-housing-should-too
Golden Girls us a myth. Usually it’s one gal with a little money and another desperately trying to rip her off.
Maybe they planned their retirement between 1984 and 1989 and figured on 8% CD rates on a $400k nest egg and retired into the 0.27% we have today.
That missing $32k a year might be crimping the tipping power of retirees at the Early bird.
Historical CD Interest Rates – 1984-2016
https://www.bankrate.com/banking/cds/historical-cd-interest-rates-1984-2016/
Apartment 401 - there are so many facets to this problem - a generation approaching retirement without the means to do so - that I wish we could spin off a sub-blog here.
From what I can see, there is no one primary reason for the large number of people in this situation (though the top 5-ish reasons account for over 90%) and people are responding in a number of different ways.
It would be interesting to do something like what we do here for the topic.
Entitlement mentality at the personal level has been developing in this country since FDR, and it escalated with LBJ. Since the 90’s the workplace has become more sophisticated demanding higher skills, which tends to drive more into social dependency. Not sure what the solution will be, but productivity increases won’t close the gap.
I offer no solution, just a personal anecdote. The times in my life when I was able to really bank a good chunk in savings was when I was living rent-free or almost nearly rent free. I had a good job after university and was still living with my parents. That allowed me to sock an incredible amount of money away in investments at a very early age. So few people have that option.
The fact that people nearing retirement have don’t have $15k saved in their 401(k), but probably pay almost that or more in rent over many years, indicates that high housing costs and living costs in general are a major, if not the major, culprit. From what I’ve seen, it’s the rising cost of necessities (transportation, medical expenses, housing) that is creating this problem, not irresponsible behavior for the most part.
I was just reading about IBEX woolens shutting their doors, which is sad since they sold wonderful products. My personal opinion is that consumers are spending too large of a share of their net income on shelter. The MSM suggests that e-retail is getting all the action, but I don’t buy it. No… the Sixpack consumers out there are dying or dead, economically speaking, IMHO.
I think you are 100% right rms. Housing is crowding out everything else, and retail is suffering.
“Have not put enough money into their 401(k)s to live off of; the median savings in a 401(k) plan for people between the ages of 55 and 64 is currently just $15,000″
This fact perfectly demonstrates why you shouldn’t pay grossly inflated prices for a rapidly depreciating item like a house.
Surprising top state for Californians who leave: It’s red and in the South:
“The rumors that more people are leaving California than moving here appear to be true, according to a new report from the state of California. From 2007 to 2016, about 6 million people left the Golden State while about only 5 million moved here in the same period.
What may surprise some people is that an overwhelming number of those fleeing California are heading to Texas, which accounted for close to 300,000 of the departures. Why do so many people leave for the Lone Star state? According to the study, cost of living appears to be a major factor since “families with kids and those with only a high school education predominate among those moving from California to its top destination states.”
https://www.sfgate.com/expensive-san-francisco/article/Californians-leaving-Texas-Arizona-Nevada-migrate-12640684.php
Surprising top state for Californians who leave: Texas
“families with kids and those with only a high school education predominate among those moving from California …”
“I learned two things growing up in Texas.
1. God loves you, and you’re going to burn in hell forever.
2. Sex is the most current and dangerous thing you can possibly do, so save it for someone you love.”
Molly Ivins @ a bar.bee.q with J. Frank Dobie ( just.kiddin’.ya)
“The average PhD thesis is nothing but a transference of bones from one gaveyard to another.”
J. Frank Dobie
BS, MS, PhD …
those with only a high school education predominate among those moving from California
So low income people who will apply for gibmedats (medicaid, foodstamps, section 8, etc.) when they arrive are the bulk?
If “educated” people are who is in charge in California, then both Texas and the lesser educated are MUCH better off if it’s the so-called lowlifes that move to Texas.
California’s “educated” should stay in California.
The rest of us should donate money supporting secession. I’d be more than happy to see California secede.
The very last thing anyone needs is California’s “educated” moving anywhere else and f*cking everything up.
Better that Texas and other states absorb millions of uneducated people than tens of thousands of limosine liberals from San Francisco, Berkeley, Los Angeles , etc.
Individual liberty as a concept and in practicality is much more likely to flourish as the unwashed prove to themselves that they, too, can succeed.
All on this board need to remember that very few among California’s “educated” socialist crowd are even vaguely interested in seeing their perceived lessers improve their lot in life, ESPECIALLY if those lessers manage to do so on their own.
From the article:
“Also, while California had a net loss of people, “it has gained among those with higher incomes ($110,000 per year or more) and higher levels of education (graduate degrees).”"
We have had a great sorting going on for some time now. Read “The Big Sort” by Bill Bishop. Communities, cities, and states are becoming more homogeneous in terms of education, income, and political views. This trend doesn’t surprise me. The rich are moving into CA, the poor are moving out.
Which is why CA has been experiencing net population loss for over a decade.
Having lived in Texas for almost 25 years, I can see why they are flocking there (cost and lack of regulation).
I also see a potential surprise for people in Texas in the years ahead: Energy costs. Those big 3-4-5-thousand sq. ft. houses that (used to be) so cheap.. they cost a bloody lot to heat, and especially, cool.
Whenever I would visit California, it seemed that most of the time the use of Air Conditioning was optional. In Texas, most of the time it is mandatory. People who never lived there always underestimate how mandatory it is. For more than half the year you go directly from air conditioned house to air conditioned car to air conditioned destination. And ironically enough, there tends to be a couple months of bitter cold requiring heating (usually nat gas)
In recent years, energy costs in Texas have been kept in check (at least from what I can see from people still there), but we know that can change along with the bigger economy and Geo-political situations. Add in the wild-card that Climate change is bringing.
Most people there just suck it up as part of daily life, but I’m thinking long-term: 10-20-30 years out, retirees and lower economic classes. Will we see an out-migration of climate refugees.
A couple notes: Back in 2002-2007 timeframe, I had a 4000+ sq ft house in the DFW area - 5 separate HVAC systems, 4 were 3-ton 18 seer AC units with extra large outdoor condenser units. My energy costs averaged $600 a month year-round.
It’s also worth noting that the cities along I-35 / in central Texas suffer worse because of the humidity. The greater Dallas/Ft. worth area is one of the worst. If you go into West Texas, elevation and humidity changes actually make it notably more bearable. But there isn’t much out there.
“For more than half the year you go directly from air conditioned house to air conditioned car to air conditioned destination.”
+1 Ditto for Phoenix.
And Las Vegas.
I think an A/C outage is more dangerous to the elderly than heating outage. I lived thru outages in lv and dfw but I was young then.
‘TruAmerica Multifamily, a value-add investment firm, has acquired a 264-unit apartment in Huntington Beach for $90.5 million, adding to the company’s growing Los Angeles portfolio. The seller was an affiliate of UDR, which paid $33.8 million for the property in 2003, records show.’
‘West Los Angeles-based TruAmerica plans to renovate the Pacific Shores, a Class B property. That will include a complete overhaul of 74 aging units. The company will also make improvements to the outdoor pool and spa, landscaping, barbecue areas and fitness center, it said in a release announcing the sale.’
‘The acquisition was financed with a seven-year loan through Freddie Mac’s select sponsor program. TruAmerica manages a $7 billion portfolio of 33,000 apartment units in nine states.’
Isn’t that special? A multi-billion $ outfit get’s government backed loans to buy up tens of thousands of airboxes, slap on some paint, and raise rents!
Huntington Beach, CA
Hey Mr. Bear, what is the rent increa$e ratio the closer you are located to the Pacific Ocean? (Specify miles or kilometers, or feet)
Does it apply also @ the Great Salt Lake?
My in-laws have a Great Salt Lake view that would make them multimillionaires if only the lake were the Pacific Ocean (not so)…
The latest futuristic massive development plan being thrown around just south of the Great Salt Lake:
https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/01/20/why-this-developer-believes-it-makes-sense-to-build-a-city-in-the-middle-of-utah-lake/
“Isn’t that special? A multi-billion $ outfit get’s government backed loans to buy up tens of thousands of airboxes, slap on some paint, and raise rents!”
And paid for via rising property taxes!
We need an “On The Take” award, to be held annually in the vein of the Grammys or Oscars.
Several categories, several nominations for each category.
All nominees get jail time. Winners get life.
Dropping interest rates and central bank cash infusions makes optimistic investors look like geniuses.
Just as lemmings with credit cards make billionaires out of craptocurrency scammers.
Portlandia is bullet proof
‘Portland’s apartment-building binge appears to be headed off a cliff. Applications for new housing developments have nearly ground to a halt over the past year, and there are plenty of reasons for that. Construction costs have ballooned, as have land prices. The glut of new construction, meanwhile, has taken the wind out of rising rents, at least at the high end.’
‘Developers say the market has shifted dramatically since offsets were created. Rents in high-end buildings have been stagnant over the last year, which has prompted some landlords to throw in a few weeks of free rent to land tenants. Close to 10,000 apartments were in the development pipeline before inclusionary zoning took effect’
This is the typical communist stuff you see in the REIC and their lapdog press. For years, “oh it’s so expensive!” Then the bottom falls out and they cry for handouts. Rents have been falling in Portland for well over a year, and these “developers” are fooked.
A reader’s reply to the Portland story:
The overly liberal utopian government of oregonia is a large driver of why housing is so expensive.
For a typical moderate 1800 sf home on a 3500sf lot in the metro:
the property taxes will be about $400/month
The permit costs will be about $50,000 financed over 30 years or about $250/month
The increased cost of the land due to the urban growth boundary will probably be about another $50k financed over 30 years or about another $250/month.
Don’t forget about the cost of inclusionary zoning and the cost to subsidize those “affordable (subsidized)” housing units according to overly liberal utopian math. That has to be another $200/month.
Now add in monthly Street fees, monthly parks fees,monthly local taxes on ur cable, phone, gas and electric bills and the cost on your water and sewer bills of the overly liberal utopian wasteful projects and programs.
That is at least $1,200 per month just in government imposed costs and you haven’t even paid for a single nail yet!
The overly liberal utopian government of oregonia is a large driver of making housing unaffordable in the metro area!
Government fees on a typical home…
Traffic impact fees
System development fees
For water
For sewer
For parks
For transportation systems
General building permit
Plumbing permit
Electrical permit
Hvac permit
Sewer permit
Water permit
Gas permit
Sidewalk permit
Plan review fee
Road approach permit
Demolition permit
Hazardous removal permit
Tree cutting permit
Deq/EPA permit
Application fee
Etc
Prime-Age Men May Never Return to U.S. Workforce, Fed Paper Says:
“Men in their prime working years have left the labor force at an astonishing rate and they may never return if the state of the U.S. job market holds, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
The participation rate of prime-age men — those 25 to 54 years old — has steadily decreased in the last half century. As of January, 89 percent of prime-age men were in the labor force, down from around 97 percent following World War II, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-23/prime-age-men-may-never-return-to-u-s-workforce-fed-paper-says
These are all the people missing in the unemployment stats, and part of the massive surge in homelessness, drug abuse and despair.
Prime-Age Men May Never Return to U.S. Workforce, Fed Paper Says:
“Men in their prime working years have left the labor force at an astonishing rate and they may never return if the state of the U.S. job market holds, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
So I can just… not show up one day… and someone keeps paying me?
How exactly I wonder does this work, without winding up sleeping under an overpass and panhandling.
How exactly I wonder does this work
Do something, like Xavier Do.
How exactly I wonder does this work?
Many options:
1) Live with your parents, other relatives or friends and do odd, under the table jobs for spending money
2) Collect SSDI
3) Resort to crime
4) Live off your spouse/significant other.
5) Inherit some money, live frugally and it lasts for a while
6) Go on welfare.
And I’m sure many are homeless.
Another item for our sub-blog on people who won’t be ready for retirement…
LA Has Criminalized Poverty By Making It Illegal To Sleep In Cars And RVs:
“According to the most recent counts by the KPCC, there are at least 7,000 people live in their cars in Los Angeles.
Many of these people still maintain jobs and try to live the most fulfilled lives that they can, but they are constantly facing problems from authorities.
It is such a common issue that many churches have opened up their parking lots to people living out of their cars. For example, the New Beginnings Counseling Center opened up their parking lot for a “Safe Parking program,” which was intended to provide a safe and welcome parking place for people living out of their cars. Unfortunately, under new legislation passed in Los Angeles, programs like this will be illegal, because sleeping in cars and RVs have been entirely outlawed.
Under the new laws, it is illegal to sleep in a car or RV that is parked in a residentially zoned area from 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. Areas within one block of a park, daycare, or school are entirely off limits. Fines will range anywhere from $25 to $75 which is impossible to pay for most people in these situations.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-23/la-has-criminalized-poverty-making-it-illegal-sleep-cars-and-rvs
‘at least 7,000 people live in their cars in Los Angeles. Many of these people still maintain jobs and try to live the most fulfilled lives that they can’
bas·ket case
ˈbaskət ˌkās/
nouninformal
noun: basket case; plural noun: basket cases; noun: basketcase; plural noun: basketcases
-a person or thing regarded as useless or unable to cope.
-a country or organization that is in severe financial or economic difficulties, especially one that is unable to pay its debts.
“sudden meltdowns—such as the financial crisis—can turn flourishing countries into basket cases overnight”
It ain’t just.kalifornia … & it ain’t just cars & rv’s
take a gander @ these make.America.great.again! living alternatives
https://mobilehomeliving.org/amp/mobile-home-ingenuity/
DMV & property taxe$, makes the gubermint wheel$ go round!
Are people allowed to camp out overnight in LA WalMarts, or is not allowed (illegal)? The local ones usually have 20 or more vehicles (campers and cars) parked overnight at the far end of the parking lot. And since there is more than one, plus the ones in neighboring Ft. Collins, Greeley and El Longmonto, one could bounce between them to not overstay the welcome.
Additionally, there are dozens of options for “overnight camping” aside from WalMart.
Yes this is the way I travel I rest at rest stops, wal-marts, truck stops and save the motel rip off of 70/80 dollars a night and forgo the fabreze smells and noise through the paper thin walls. Than after I awake at my rest stop I discretely pull into one of the roadside motels (they are everywhere along the highway) and partake of a free breakfast!
I don’t do the free breakfast thing, but other than that, I do the same as you.
I refuse to pay $70+ for 6-7 hours of sleep and a shower.
Waste of money. People here scoff at gamblers blowing their money in a machine (I do, too), but don’t bat an eye blowing $100+ for an 8-hour stay at a hotel.
That better be a damn good donut they’re getting at the front desk in the morning.
Truck stops tend to be the best bet.
Most truckers are armed…which makes truck stops unattractive to criminals. The 24/7 nature of truck stops also is a deterrent as there are eyes everywhere.
Additionally, they are the best place to be if you need something for your vehicle, or if your vehicle doesn’t start for whatever reason. Help is ALWAYS available.
Lastly, if you look like hell in the morning, it doesn’t matter as everyone else does, too!
You might be interested to know that it is a federal offense to carry a fire arm in a commercial vehicle. With all of the various inspections and police state activity, most drivers don’t risk it.
“Than after I awake at my rest stop I discretely pull into one of the roadside motels (they are everywhere along the highway) and partake of a free breakfast!”
That’s theft, and you’re proud of it? I find that despicable.
You might be interested to know that it is a federal offense to carry a fire arm in a commercial vehicle. With all of the various inspections and police state activity, most drivers don’t risk it.
Yea, right! Illegal immigration is a federal offense too.
Try rolling a truck driver and see what you get.
You might be interested to know that it is a federal offense to carry a fire arm in a commercial vehicle.
Is that a recent law? My dad was an OTR trucker up until about 10 years ago and he and lots of his peers carried in the cab. They knew that some big city/coastal states weren’t friendly to it, but talked like it was completely legal in the more rural states.
In our city I’ve seen a couple of roaming RVs continually relocating around the city. They don’t park at the RV camp and they move every so often so as to avoid getting any ticket. Because they are driving large RVs, it’s obvious what they are doing. I don’t fault them for it at all, since they are likely just homeless who are improvising. But local city officials and the residents get frustrated and I can see some onerous regulations coming down the pipeline.
This is why I continue to think sleeping in a Tesla (not affordable for most, but about the same as an expensive RV), is a lot better than having an RV. For one, you can control the climate (heating, or cooling), and for another, it is a lot easier to blend into the nightly urban landscape. You could park at a 24/7 supermarket (Walmart), or somewhere else that is 24/7 (like a hospital). You can just park somewhere and put up blockers like this:
https://evannex.com/products/sunshade-for-tesla-model-s
“LA Has Criminalized Poverty By Making It Illegal To Sleep In Cars And RVs”
Time for the Hollywood crowd to invite them to live in their homes. They’re all for supporting the downtrodden, don’t you know.
BTW, anyone here know Bruce Springsteen’s telephone number?
“…it is illegal to sleep in a car or RV that is parked in a residentially zoned area from 9 p.m. to 6 a.m”
But if they stay up all night, then sleep during the day, its okay?
Hard to panhandle at the intersections if you’re asleep during the day, though. Or to hold a cash-only day-labor job.
“But if they stay up all night, then sleep during the day, its okay?”
So, I guess this means that LA has a shortage of bartenders? And late night security officers?
Little do they realize that the hours of the ban may not keep the riffraff off the street. Indeed, it may actually promote it.
Let’s say I want to pull over for a nap, but cannot because of the hours. Hmmm….maybe I’ll get drunk, stoned or meth’ed instead! Then head over to Denny’s cuz I have the munchies, then cruise the neighborhoods for a while, and then crash at 6:00 a.m.?
Sounds like a plan….
Most counties in this country now have laws against “occupied RVs” on private property. It’s been illegal since I think the mid 90’s to even camp on your own land for more than x number of days per year.
I don’t know if I’ll live to see it, but I think the government overreach has gone so far that we’ll start seeing change in what’s allowed due to the fact that people are being punished financially and emotionally for just trying to survive.
Think about this: You can get kicked off your own land for living in your own RV, and find yourself homeless on the streets. The government is actually producing homeless people.
‘‘You start seeing ‘blue sky’ underwriting from equity over and over and over again,’ Murphy said. ‘The concept looks great on paper, in black and white, as long as you can underwrite 5% rent growth for the next 10 years. That sounds familiar — 2006, 2007 — but it’s probably not smart.’
‘San Antonio has had some amazing population growth, but it will not last forever, Murphy said. Suggesting the city is going to have 100% growth in rent is simply untenable.’
‘as long as you can underwrite 5% rent growth for the next 10 years’
This means they are borrowing on the assumption of this kind of rent increases. As rents have never been higher and the percentage of incomes going towards rents have never been higher, they are betting for more, maybe double? Classic insanity. BTW, San Antonio is a sh*thole.
Hey, eye liked the evening history light show on the front of the Alamo!
(Oh, yeah, guess that makes me a touri$t, sorry.)
Terry, … made my donation in your name, as requested, Hwy50ina49dodge
Terry Ward of DeMotte, IN | 1946 - 2018 | Obituary
http://www.geisenfuneralhome.com/m/?p=memorial&id=2064544&lu=1516817051&iu=1516834946
It’s good to see you can still follow instructions in your advancing years, hwy!
A fantastic obituary. Neat testament. Terry and his wife both have a great sense of humor, and will be remembered as such.
‘He retired from AT&T (formerly Ameritech, formerly formerly Indiana Bell) after 39 years of begrudging service, where he accumulated roughly 3,000 rolls of black electrical tape during the course of his career (which he used for everything from open wounds to “Don’t use this button” covers).’
‘He enjoyed many, many things. Among those things were hunting, fishing, golfing, snorkeling, ABBA, hiking Turkey Run, chopping wood, shooting guns, Bed Bath & Beyond, starlight mints, cold beer, free beer, The History Channel, CCR, war movies, discussing who makes the best pizza, The Chicago White Sox, old Buicks, and above all, his family.’
“Memorial donations in Terry’s name can be made to your favorite charity or your favorite watering hole, where you are instructed to tie a few on and tell a few stories of the great Terry Ward.”
Redmond, OR Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Mortgage Meltdown Continues
https://www.movoto.com/redmond-or/market-trends/
When did the MSM become part of the “deep state” ?
When did the MSM become part of the “deep state” ?
i think between the first and second bush. and of course they’ve been left biased long before that.
The deep state uses left right nonsense to divide us,
And they are doing a fine job of it.
Divide and conquer works, which is why they do it. Every comments section of every article online that has anything to do with politics if chalk full of partisan bickering. It’s as if these people don’t realize that Congresscritters put on their dog and pony shows in front of the media, then privately go laugh and drink with each other at the watering holes around DC. These people are friends!
George Stephanopoulos had the NRA girl on his show this morning, when she pointed out that by states sharing records they could stop 7 million people who should not be able to buy firearms for a number of criminal and mental issues from doing so right now.
She then asked Stephanopoulos…
Wouldn’t you like to stop 7 million people who should not be able to buy firearms today?
George slipped and said…
I want to stop everyone. Catching himself and stopping there.
The next guest was a well rehearsed Hogg along with some other script reader.
Feckless government bureaucrats will use it as an excuse to tax more and it won’t address the problem but will impede the right to bear arms. Success in the corrupt minds of corrupt bureaucrats.
“The deep state uses left right nonsense to divide us,”
That may very well be but when it comes to “National Tragedies” like one we have recently seen the coordination between the MSM, elected officials, local, state and federal along with law enforcement is amazing.
In some cases as if it were all scripted.
“The Climate is Changing”
Indeed it is. For instance, bubbles are no longer just for bathtubs any longer.
PS We won. Congratulations to Ben and all the regulars who have posted here for the past decade and a half.
Investopedia Term of the Day
What is a ‘Bubble’
A bubble is an economic cycle characterized by rapid escalation of asset prices followed by a contraction. It is created by a surge in asset prices unwarranted by the fundamentals of the asset and driven by exuberant market behavior. When no more investors are willing to buy at the elevated price, a massive selloff occurs, causing the bubble to deflate.
ft.com
Bitcoin
Bank of America cautions on potential cryptocurrency threat
US lender includes warning for first time in ‘risk factors’ for investors
Alistair Gray in New York yesterday
Bank of America has warned it could face “substantial” costs as it deals with cryptocurrencies, a sign of the potential threat to the world’s largest financial institutions posed by the rise of bitcoin and its alternatives.
In its annual filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the second-biggest US bank by assets included for the first time warnings about the technology among the “risk factors” for investors.
Only three references were made to cryptocurrencies in a 13,000-word section of the filing late on Thursday that also discussed a wide range of other risks, from Brexit to cyber attacks.
Still, BofA’s decision to include the warnings shows how banking executives are taking the bitcoin craze seriously — and are having to acknowledge the possibility, however unlikely, that it will upend their business models.
…
Meanwhile, Sh!tcoin down 11% in a week.
$9,391.00
Bitcoin price
−$1,153.56
Since last week (USD)
−10.94%
Since last week (%)
Typical volatility, no?
Portland, OR 97239 Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Residents Flee Failing Economy
https://www.zillow.com/portland-or-97239/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Well, if you cast them out of gun free zone schools where the second drill of the day kicks off shooting and teachers interviews say the shooter was wearing full black body armor and helmet while a student in another section of the school walks out among other classmates (widely reported first day) with the accused shooter while they are all still listening to shots from another section of the school and Sheriff Deputies stand down outside you just may possibly save some.