March 10, 2018

The Fastest Market To Reach Oversupply

A report from the Coloradoan. “With 1,100 market-rate units coming online and more than 2,000 in the pipeline, some experts wonder if Fort Collins is in danger of a bubble, where oversupply pushes up vacancy rates, depresses rents and leaves hundreds of units wanting for tenants. It’s making some developers and market watchers a little nervous, particularly as thousands of additional student-oriented apartments flood the market. ‘The fastest market to reach oversupply is typically apartments,’ said Brandon Wells, president of The Group Real Estate. Wells is not predicting a bubble quite yet, ‘but we are reaching some numbers that give me reason for a yellow light of caution whether it’s sustainable,’ he said.”

“Vacancy rates don’t tell the full story. Vibe, Bucking Horse and Cycle — with more than 1,000 combined units — are still under construction and not included in the December survey. The survey also does not include roughly 1,160 student-oriented apartments in the pipeline that could house more than 3,660 residents and pull students out of market-rate apartments. The construction defects laws and lack of condo opportunity will continue to fuel apartment development and growth, Wells said. And that has resulted in a plethora of apartments for renters looking for high-end finishes that replicate a ‘for sale’ product and amenities that create a certain vibe.”

“The number of units coming online ‘is spooky,’ said Gino Campana, developer of the Bucking Horse Apartments. ‘There is only a limited number of people.” And there is a limited segment of the population that can afford the higher rents.’”

From the Philadelphia Inquirer in Pennsylvania. “Spring and summer are traditionally the busiest times in real estate, for both homes and apartments. But a landlord’s asking price is never final — especially in today’s market. Philadelphia, in particular, has experienced an unprecedented housing boom in recent years — 6,500 new apartment units and condos are expected to be built in Greater Center City between just 2016 and 2018 — meaning there’s more supply than ever for renters to choose from.”

“Much of that inventory, including in the suburbs, has been high-end apartments, the kind that demand prices greater than $3 a square foot. And while such inventory has forced prices to jump, many buildings are providing ‘concessions’ — a month of free rent, for example — to lure tenants. Accordingly, the actual price of renting is often cheaper than advertised.”

“According to real estate data company REIS, the vacancy rate in ‘Center City’ was 7.6 percent in 2017’s fourth quarter, up from 5.2 percent two years prior. Meanwhile, rent growth has dipped, while competition is up. ‘In the business of renting apartments, it’s very costly to turn over tenants,’ said Allan Domb, a member of Philadelphia City Council and a real estate broker.”

From WACH in South Carolina. “A student housing complex set to be built in downtown Columbia has been met with mixed opinions by local residents. Residents living in nearby neighborhoods are wary about what the student housing could mean for the area. Jonathan Comish, president of Arsenal Hill’s Neighborhood Association, says he’s been meeting with the Vista Guild to discuss the concerns of his residents. ‘If the student housing bubble ever bursts, then that’s just going to be 700 empty beds in the middle of what we sort of think is the crown jewel of Columbia, Arsenal Hill and the Vista,’ said Comish.”

From KBTX in Texas. “According to a recent Bloomberg study, College Station ranks as the number one least affordable place to live based on the percentage of household income going to monthly rent costs. But local experts are skeptical of these numbers. Both Jim Gaines, Chief Economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and local realtor Cherry Ruffino believe there are too many housing and apartment rentals in College Station for the demand. Some even theorize that the open rentals could lead to decreasing costs.”

“However, Gaines and Ruffino aren’t as optimistic. ‘Does this mean our rental rates will go down? I don’t think so,’ says Ruffino. ‘I don’t think so at all, but we may level off.’ ‘Sometimes the landlords are a little slow in lowering the rent,’ says Gaines. ‘What they would rather do is give something in concessions like free rent for a month.’”

From Reuters on New York. “Apartment sales in Manhattan fell to the lowest monthly rate in January since February 2012 as a declining trend in city-wide sales both by price and volume emerged, listings and data website CityRealty said. Sales prices fell 15.5 percent to an average $1.86 million in January from an average $2.2 million a year earlier, while the average price in December fell 14.3 percent, from $2.17 million. ‘I’m a little startled, it’s quite a blip,’ Gabby Warshawer, director of research at CityRealty, said of the drop.”

“Data for January showed the lowest number of units sold since February 2012, when 799 sales were recorded at an average price of $1.50 million. Volume peaked in July 2013, when 1,721 units were sold.”

From the Union Tribune in California. “From the saltwater pool on the 18th floor of East Village’s Alexan ALX, the latest luxury apartment to open downtown, it seems like all of San Diego is at your feet. Alexan is just one of the more than 2,000 new apartments opening this year in San Diego County, most of which are high-end and downtown. Trends follow past years as luxury complexes cater to pets, install high-tech gyms and zero-edge pools typically found at resorts in an effort to outdo each other.”

“Russ Valone, CEO of MarketPointe Realty Advisors, said the market has proven it can handle high rents but it’s unclear for how long. What is unique this year is not that most new construction is high-end, but that there are so many luxury projects. ‘You can continue to ask’ for high rents, he said. ‘Will we get them? I don’t know.’”

From City Watch LA on California. “The massive multi-billion-dollar fraud behind Los Angeles’ homeless crisis has taken a gigantic leap forward with the LA Times’ multi-part editorial which has one basic solution: give billions more dollars to real estate developers. In March 2012, I noted, ‘With the hubris for which the Los Angeles City Council is becoming renown, Garcetti, LaBonge and their gaggle of developer good old boys continued to loot the city treasury. After the years of fraud had been uncovered from the gargantuan financial losses like the $454 million debacle at Hollywood-Highland to the small $1.4 million appraisal fraud for CRA 1601 N. Vine Project, one would think that when billions of dollars will rest on the accuracy of the Hollywood Community Plan, the city would come clean and tell the truth.’ Oh, how naive we were.”

“Since his election in 2001, current LA Mayor Eric Garcetti has been promoting his campaign to destroy as many rent-controlled units as possible. The rate is up to 7 RSO units per day making a total of over 24,000 apartments destroyed. If we assume only 2.5 persons per unit, that is 60,000 poor people whose homes have been destroyed. Yet, the LA Times does not think that destroying the homes of the poorest among us contributed to the increase in homelessness.”

“As Adam Fowler of Beacon Economics explained it, the City needs more market rate and luxury housing so that the homeless will have a place to live. (Huh ??) Speaking on Channel 4’s News Conference, a perennial fountain of disinformation, Mr. Fowler explained that wealthy people are living in older apartments. As soon as the city builds new luxury apartments, the wealthy will move into the new places which will free up the older units for the poor. This is ultra-right-wing Trickle Down economics: tear down the homes of the poor and build luxury units for the wealthy.”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-03-10 09:48:13

‘This is ultra-right-wing Trickle Down economics: tear down the homes of the poor and build luxury units for the wealthy’

Maybe so, but I bet everybody involved voted for Screech.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-03-10 11:17:54

Partisan politics aside, the Beacon Economics argument doesn’t seem to work if low-income housing is getting torn down to make way for luxury construction. For some reason, I smell the stench of GSE “Affordable Housing” finance behind this trend.

Comment by 2banana
2018-03-10 11:31:52

In one of the bluest states in a city democrats have controlled for decades…

Yet, somehow, it is some other political party’s fault.


“ultra-right-wing Trickle Down economics”

Comment by MacBeth
2018-03-10 13:42:40

Ben, do you remember when it was all about infrastructure and shovel-ready jobs?

Imagine our transportation system now had “Yellen bucks looking for a place to die” had been directed in that direction instead.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-03-10 17:44:06

The FED’s a one trick pony - blow big ol’ fawkin’ bubbles.

Comment by oxide
2018-03-10 18:06:15

We had a huge chance after 9-11 to Make America Great Again.

They’re ALL screw-ups. And you can’t even vote out the bad stuff, since both sides are a mixed bag.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-03-10 19:32:36

Both parties have had ample opportunity to do something positive for the country, and what’s been accomplished? A big old NOTHING. All the shovel ready jobs talk, blah, blah, blah. How can Obama even look himself in the mirror after turning into a banker’s bootlicker? Geez, Jamie Dimon was one of the most frequent White House guests during Obama’s entire Presidency, and it’s on the record.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-03-10 09:54:01

‘The number of units coming online ‘is spooky,’ said Gino Campana, developer of the Bucking Horse Apartments. ‘There is only a limited number of people.” And there is a limited segment of the population that can afford the higher rents.’

Gino here put in some high speed internet wires, so he’s all good. One common thing in these articles is each think their combination of doggy this or that is going to save them.

BTW Gino, your wires will be obsolete next year. If the dogs don’t chew them up first.

Comment by 2banana
2018-03-10 11:33:25


It is all done by design.

Mel Watt is proud of his accomplishments.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-03-10 11:35:36

3000 new apartments in Ft. Collins? And I’ll bet they’re all expensive too. The Fort is home to 160,000. Say that three will live in each apartment, that’s 9000 people. It’s taken the Fort almost 10 years to grow 20,000. Just who is going to rent all those luxury apartments.

And as far as I can tell, the economy in the Fort is in the toilet. The quality employers in town (HP, Intel, Agilent, Advanced Energy, etc.) have been layoff machines, and it shows in local tech wages, which are about 30K lower than in Denver and the competition for the few available jobs is stiff.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-03-10 12:42:10

Denver(Highland), CO Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Cash-Out Refinancing Proliferates

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-03-10 10:06:39

Realtors are liars.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-03-10 10:10:58

…. and every closing a crime scene.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-03-10 10:10:02

North Capitol Hill fire prompts federal investigation, accusations of under-the-table labor, unsafe work environment:

“Local labor organizers, meanwhile, question the safety protocols at the site where crews were erecting the five-story Emerson Place Apartments complex before the devastating fire erupted, killing two workers and injuring six others. Those organizers say there is evidence at least one subcontractor employed workers who were paid under the table and not signing daily work logs, making it hard to account for everyone on site.

The Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters responded to the fire scene Wednesday afternoon to assist workers who had evacuated, union special representative Mark Thompson said.

“When I approached the foreman for United Builders Service, I asked him how many workers he had on his crew. He looked me straight in the eye and said, ‘I don’t know,’ ” Thompson said at Friday’s rally. “This is unacceptable. We pray there are no other workers missing, but how can the professionals be certain without an accurate count to start with?”

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-03-10 10:37:41
Comment by 2banana
2018-03-10 11:38:24

Unions are the democrats all time largest supporters by dollars given.

The democrat party is all for open borders and nearly limited legal and illegal immigration.

And unions wonder why there are unsafe working conditions in construction and why they are priced out of jobs.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-03-10 11:57:53


Denver voted 79% for Hillary vs 18% for Trump.

A popular yard sign virtue signal around town reads “hate has no home here.” On some blocks you’ll see them in front of every third house.

I would never put a Trump sticker on my car out of fear of vandalism or getting assaulted in a parking lot or being followed home.

So yeah, hate has a home here, and its home is the deranged left.

Comment by MacBeth
2018-03-10 13:40:13

Colorado = The Next California.

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Comment by In Colorado
2018-03-10 15:39:40

Sadly, I do think Colorado is headed California’s way. But I also think the entire country is “The Next California”, and that many other states are much closer to that than the Centennial State. When TABOR is repealed by voters, that will be the day it happens here. But I doubt that will happen anytime soon.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-03-10 16:10:54


Yes, there are internets here, but no people. Climb 14ers in the winter because summer = too many millennials :(

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-03-10 19:43:56

“Sadly, I do think Colorado is headed California’s way.”

WA state is pretty much already there. I posted a story about how the enviro-whackos basically just shut down new development in all rural areas because of a “water shortage” in the only state in the lower 48 with an actual rain forest. You can’t make this stuff up. This group is responsible:

“For more than 25 years, Futurewise has worked to prevent sprawl in order to protect our State’s resources and make our urban areas livable for and available to all. Founded to help support implementation of the first-in-the-nation Growth Management Act, we focus on preventing the conversion of wildlife habitat, open space, farmland, and working forests to subdivisions and development, while directing most growth into our urbanized areas.”

Too bad it’s not forests they’re “preventing” conversion of, it’s private land owned in areas where people have lived for hundreds of years. And it’s all based upon bunk science - or in this case, no science at all.

“They have the their work cut out for them. The county watershed is complicated, to say the least. Groundwater is connected to surface water, but it’s not always clear how.”

Oh, great, let’s shut everything down while we play a game of “do deep water wells affect surface water stream flows?” You can’t make this sheet up.

Comment by Parker
2018-03-11 09:38:23

Just because there is an abundance of a resource doesn’t mean it’s available. If WA is selling much of it’s water to another state (this is just a guess) and using most of the rest for agriculture, it doesn’t leave much left for suburbanites transplanted from CA and their insatiable need for rain shower heads in each of their 5 bathrooms. Another example is when I lived next to a reservoir with a massive dam and power generating plant. I thought electricity would surely be cheap since it was made in abundance about a mile away. Nope. It was sold off to another state, and I had to buy MY electricity from California, which was 3 states away and expensive.

When you aren’t allowed access to most of your resources, it heavily impacts what little remains. This kind of thing typically isn’t a matter of environmental whackos, but it’s convenient for a lot of people who stand to profit to make that the headline anyway.

Comment by oxide
2018-03-10 12:49:14

I still don’t know how they reconcile open borders with “living wage.”

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-03-10 16:40:18

Hey Donk

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Comment by In Colorado
2018-03-10 17:03:05

It’s called cognitive dissonance, I believe.

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Comment by oxide
2018-03-10 21:00:27

George Orwell defined it best: Doublethink.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-03-10 17:43:43

Unions are the democrats all time largest supporters by dollars given.


The democrat party is all for open borders and nearly limited legal and illegal immigration.

EVERYONE wants C H E A P labor.

And unions wonder why there are unsafe working conditions in construction and why they are priced out of jobs.

Staying safe costs money and time. Builders want it done fast and cheap. Are you saying it’s different elsewhere ? Do YOU personally know construction?
What happens to a roof’s strength when the trusses go from 12″ off-center to 24″ off-center to save money? What happens when you shorten the length of your trusses to save money? What happens when you no longer use roof trusses and you get rid of roof INSULATION spaces to save money?

Illegal migrants don’t own construction companies. They are given construction plans to work from that cut corners.

Pride in construction took a holiday and never returned.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-03-10 19:49:57

What happens to a roof’s strength when the trusses go from 12″ off-center to 24″ off-center to save money? What happens when you shorten the length of your trusses to save money? What happens when you no longer use roof trusses and you get rid of roof INSULATION spaces to save money?

Isn’t that kind of stuff supposed to be covered by code? Of course, it doesn’t help when inspectors sign off without actually inspecting.

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-03-10 22:49:49

During the last bubble it was so busy that builders were allowed to do their own inspections. LMFAO.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-03-10 21:17:06

Housing my friends.

Littleton, CO Housing Prices Crater
14% YOY

Comment by Parker
2018-03-11 10:02:31

Any idea why they only include the median list price and not the median sale price? The actual sale price could vary up or down pretty substantially, and with upper end price cuts I suspect that the median sale price could be even more dramatic than the 14% drop shown here.

Comment by rms
2018-03-10 21:18:45

“North Capitol Hill fire prompts federal investigation, accusations of under-the-table labor, unsafe work environment:”

There was a similar fire in 2002 in San Jose, CA, called Santana Row, which was also under construction, framed, lots of exposed sticks. The heat was so great it melted car bodies nearby.

Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-03-10 10:22:01

Sacramento, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Mortgages Meltdown

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

Comment by Jingle Male
2018-03-10 14:17:59

There is no drop down menu on the mobile version.

What I do see is prices rose 10% last year and are forecast to increase 5% this year.

Strangely, the “market temperature” is very cold indicating a buyer’s market.

I’ll have to study this link when I get back to my laptop!

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-03-11 18:03:58


Palmetto, FL Housing Prices Crater 28% YOY

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-03-10 11:12:39

“Philadelphia, in particular, has experienced an unprecedented housing boom in recent years — 6,500 new apartment units and condos are expected to be built in Greater Center City between just 2016 and 2018 — meaning there’s more supply than ever for renters to choose from.”

With a huge supply glut building up in city centers nationwide, who needs to move to Oil City? Low-rent luxury apartments for everyone!

Comment by 2banana
2018-03-10 11:28:01

Oil city doesn’t have the highest wage tax in the nation.

Or the massive corruption of 60+ years of democrat-public union absolute power.

Comment by 2banana
2018-03-10 11:25:53

Open borders has consequences snowflakes.


Data dig: Are foreign investors driving up real estate in your California neighborhood?
CALmatters | March 7, 2018 | Matt Levin

Scott and Erica Rothenberg thought the years of scrimping and saving had finally paid off.

The three-bedroom house outside of Elk Grove—an upper-middle-class suburb of Sacramento—checked all of the boxes: quiet neighborhood, quality school district, ample space to start a family.

But the couple knew competition for the house—like most houses in desirable California neighborhoods—would be cut-throat. Their agent warned they’d be bidding against not only a glut of young Sacramento-area families vying for a starter home, but also wealthier Bay Area residents fleeing astronomical prices. Even wealthy foreign investors from China, sensing an opportunity to park their cash and make steady returns, were getting in on the action.

The Rothenbergs offered $10,000 above asking price, in the low $300,000s, and wrote the owners to explain who they were and how they loved the house. Days went by. Then their agent broke the news. The bid wasn’t too low—it was actually the highest offer the seller received, the realtor told them. But another buyer offered cash—meaning a cleaner, quicker sale.

Many of the recently arrived Chinese snapping up California properties are holders of EB-5 visas—a U.S. program granting green cards to foreigners who invest $500,000 in U.S. business.

“The real estate in Beijing and some other places is really expensive,” says He. “They spend a year here, they buy a house, they say, “You won’t believe it, it’s so cheap here.”

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-03-10 12:07:05

“They spend a year here, they buy a house, they say, “You won’t believe it, it’s so cheap here.”

We’re essentially at 20 years of housing bubbles and equity locust market distortions. Geezuz, will it ever end?

Comment by Jingle Male
2018-03-10 14:23:09

It has always been. I remember the same issues in the 1960s and 1970s.

You just have to be patient, keep saving and wait for a downturn. There is no crime in renting for a while.

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-03-10 14:38:50

I keep HODLing on to yesterday:

$8,859.15 Bitcoin price
−$2,246.54 Since last week (USD)
−20.23% Since last week (%)

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-03-10 17:47:47

This comment nested in the wrong spot. Oops.

Can you say cr8er?

$8,576.75 Bitcoin price
−$2,553.33 Since last week (USD)
−22.94% Since last week (%)

Comment by rms
2018-03-10 15:27:05

“I remember the same issues in the 1960s and 1970s.”

The leverage ratios in California were higher than flyover, but it was still based on one income, not two, and the down-payment percentage was much higher than today. Lenders were local too, not national like today. The 70’s economy was terrible too, money printing, price controls, etc., the train was off the rails.

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Comment by In Colorado
2018-03-10 15:43:17

There was FHA back then. My parents bought their house on Orange County in the early 60’s with an FHA loan.

But yeah, the mortgage payment was less than 1 week’s take home pay for my dad.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-03-11 17:26:02

Elk Grove is a special place. Seems to have all the best Chinese restaurants and even the first 99 Ranch (Chinese) grocery store in the area. I’m sure it’s not coincidence that they happened to use that particular suburb as their example.

But it appears to me so far that the Chinese nationals buying in the Sacramento area are pioneers compared to the ones buying in the Bay Area. It’s a lot harder to live on the frontier if your English isn’t good.

Comment by 2banana
2018-03-10 12:09:03

Well, such a well written article.

Never explains WHICH rule(s) might change.

And, will Mel Watt call this racist?


Rule Changes at Fannie Mae, Freddie Could Add $400 to Monthly Mortgage Payments
Mar 9, 2018 - The Street

Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) , two government-sponsored enterprises that finance more than 45% of U.S. mortgages, could raise monthly mortgage payments by $400 based on new rules being discussed in Congress.

Government officials have been looking to limit the exposure U.S. taxpayers have to the lenders in case the housing market crashes again, and an analysis by Zillow Group Inc. suggested that those rules changes could result in mortgage bills that are hundreds of dollars steeper per month.

Based on Zillow’s analysis, the typical borrower would pay an additional $390 per month on the median U.S. home for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage. A 30-year non-conforming loan would cost borrowers $20 more per month.

The two GSEs have been in government conservatorship since 2008 after taxpayers bailed them both out with about $150 billion in funds due to the number of foreclosures during the housing crisis.

Comment by oxide
2018-03-10 12:59:56

The short version is that F&F may not guarantee 30-year mortgages as readily as they had in the past, forcing riskier buyers into higher interest rates or shorter terms. The $390 is a sample calc of what that would do to PITI.


“The guarantee from Fannie and Freddie is thought to keep interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages low, and housing relatively affordable. If that guarantee is changed, the typical American borrower could be facing shorter loan durations or higher rates. In this analysis, Zillow examined how alternatives to the traditional 30-year mortgage would affect borrowers’ monthly costs, using current home values and mortgage rates.

Shorter-term loans: The typical borrower would pay an additional $390 each month on the median U.S. home for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage instead of a 30-year loan. Higher rates similar to current jumbo loans: A 30-year non-conforming loan would cost borrowers about $20 more per month for the typical U.S. home. Jumbo, or non-conforming, loans are currently not guaranteed by GSEs.”

Read more at:


I don’t see ANYthing wrong with paying $400 more for a 15-year loan. You pay it off in half the time. DUH.

Comment by 2banana
2018-03-10 14:28:01

Update to 2banana’s Housing Bubble Tipping Point Equation:

Rising interest rates + DJT’s new tax laws + QE unwind + new F&F rules = tipping point

Comment by 2banana
2018-03-10 14:35:24

Shouldn’t 15 year loans be LESS risky than a 30 year loan?

$400 month extra is $4800 extra a year. For 15 years - that is $72,000 wasted.

For that kind of pocket change, I would get a 30 year loan and put that $5k/year into paying it down.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-03-10 15:21:07

If I understand it correctly, the reforms make it sound as if borrowers who are using GSEs for their housing finance needs who would have qualified for a 30-year mortgage would now only qualify for a 15-year mortgage. This seems like a good change as it would put downward pressure on prices because it would have the effect of forcing new buyers to pay more of the real cost in a shorter period.

Everything I have read seems to say that a 30-year mortgage at a fixed rate is really something that is artificially created by the GSEs themselves. Private lenders wouldn’t lend on such generous terms in a normal market without government sponsored credit, which must be why most Canadian loans are floating rate.

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Comment by rms
2018-03-10 16:57:17

“Rule Changes at Fannie Mae, Freddie Could Add $400 to Monthly Mortgage Payments”

ROTFLMFAO… my mortgage payments were $425.82 per month.


Since I’m not working I am looking to trim expenses:

Our Century Link home phone fixed cost is $39.40 per month, 65% of that are taxes. The unwed moms will have to latch on to someone else.

The Dish satellite is getting the heave-ho too, $65 savings. The misses will have to settle for Roku’s free programming; her legs welded shut is not an option. :)

The $120 per year local fish wrap is history. Poof!

The fiber optic network service and smartphones will survive the first round of cuts. We really use these services.

I haven’t decided if I want to sell my soul to another employer yet. Sure is nice to hop back in bed if I’m sleepy.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-03-11 07:01:28

I’m on a road trip in my RV. Headed to Myrtle beach to stick my toes in the sand. Sure is nice not to be thinking about when I have to go back to work!

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-03-10 12:09:56

LOL California

Thousands of pounds of human waste, close to 14,000 hypodermic needles cleaned out from Santa Ana River homeless encampments:

Comment by 2banana
2018-03-10 12:27:31

The definition of a sh!thole

Comment by tresho
2018-03-10 12:57:05

Most people look out for #1. Californians have to look out for #2.

Comment by Jingle Male
2018-03-10 14:25:33


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Comment by GreenEggsAndSpam
2018-03-10 14:46:16

I would bury Pelosi, Brown and the rest of the progs in it if I was in charge.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-03-10 15:46:02

Q: You just got evicted from your Anaheim Hooverville! What are gonna do next?

A: I’m gonna panhandle outside Disneyland!

Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-03-10 12:30:32

Bushnell, FL Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Migration From North Reverses

Comment by Lisa
2018-03-10 13:00:38

“Apartment sales in Manhattan fell to the lowest monthly rate in January since February 2012 as a declining trend in city-wide sales both by price and volume emerged, listings and data website CityRealty said. Sales prices fell 15.5 percent to an average $1.86 million in January from an average $2.2 million a year earlier, while the average price in December fell 14.3 percent, from $2.17 million. ‘I’m a little startled, it’s quite a blip,’ Gabby Warshawer, director of research at CityRealty, said of the drop.”…..

I’m surprised she’s surprised. MID is now capped at $750K loans and SALT is a $10K write off. Nosebleed prices made worse by loss of RE deductions.

Comment by 2banana
2018-03-10 14:30:49

Q: What do you call the “average” NYC FB who purchased in 2017 and has now lost about $400,000?

A: A “blip!”

Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-03-10 16:13:08

Bellevue, WA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY On Skyrocketing Housing Inventory

Comment by azdude
2018-03-10 18:00:10

haystacks, im glad u keep us up with good data like that.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-03-10 18:06:26

Now, John T. Floores was a-working for the Ku Klux Klan
At six foot five, John T. was a hell of a man
Made a lot of money selling sheets on the family plan

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-03-10 18:42:35

Landlady leads Mr and Mrs Johnson over to a table at which Adolf Hitler is sitting poring over a map. He is in full Nazi uniform. Himmler and Von Ribbentrop are also sitting at the table with him, Himmler in Nazi uniform and von Ribbentrop in evening dress, with an Iron Cross.
Hitler Ach. Good time…good afternoon.
Landlady Ooh planning a little excursion are we Mr Hilter?
Hitler Ja, ja. We haff a little… (to others) Was ist rückweise bewegen?
Von Ribbentrop Hike.
Himmler Hiking.
Hitler Ah yes, ve make a little hike for, for Bideford.
Johnson (leaning over map) Oh well, you’ll want the A39 then…no, no, you’ve got the wrong map there, this is Stalingrad, you want the Ilfracombe and Barnstaple section.
Hitler Ah! Hein…Reginald you have the wrong map here you silly old leg-before-wicket English person.
Himmler I’m sorry mein Fuhrer. I did not…(Hitler slaps him) Mein Dickie old chum.
Landlady Lucky Mr Johnson pointed that out, eh? You wouldn’t have had much fun in Stalingrad, would you…(they don’t see the joke) I said, you wouldn’t have had much fun in Stalingrad, would you, ha, ha, ha?
Hitler (through clenched teeth) Not much fun in Stalingrad, no.
Landlady Oh I’m sorry I didn’t introduce you. This is Ron…Ron Vibbentrop.
Johnson Oh, not Von Ribbentrop, eh?
Von Ribbentrop (leaping two feet in the air, then realizing) Nein! Nein! Nein! Oh!! Ha, ha, ha.
Landlady And this is the quiet one, Mr Bimmler - Heimlich Bimmler.
Himmler How do you do there squire, also I am not Minehead lad but I in Peterborough, Lincolnshire was given birth to, but stay in Peterborough Lincolnshire house all during war, owing to nasty running sores, and was unable to go in the streets play football or go to Nürnberg. I am retired vindow cleaner and pacifist, without doing war crimes (hurriedly corrects himself) tch tch tch, and am glad England win World Cup - Bobby Charlton, Martin Peters - and eating lots of chips and fish and hole in the toads, and Dundee cakes on Piccadilly line. Don’t you know old chap I was head of Gestapo for ten years. Five years! No, no, nein, I was not head of Gestapo at all…I make joke.

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Comment by Obama Goons
2018-03-10 18:24:17

SHP I had no clue you are a klansman. I’m going to have to pull your portrait from my sh!thouse wall.

Comment by jeff
2018-03-10 18:41:18


Did you ever whitesplain your skunk in the woodpile comment?

Comment by azdude
2018-03-10 18:54:37

housing! u get all sidetracked and scattered brained a lot.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-03-10 19:43:05

“scattered brained”

‘Nuff said.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-03-10 18:50:50

Usually a little Google research is sufficient to clear up such puzzles, but this one has me stumped. Can anyone on the inside explain the Haystack-KKK connection?

Comment by GreenEggsAndSpam
2018-03-10 18:45:04

Those condos in downtown San Diego - do they include the Hepatitis, or is that an extra fee?

And condos in oceanside by the pier? Good luck going out at night. Might as well get a place in Sao Paolo and/or Johannesburg - d’you feel lucky punk?

Comment by In Colorado
2018-03-10 19:45:59

And condos in oceanside by the pier?

I saw those in 2016. Hadn’t been to the Oceanside pier in maybe 20 years. The place looks different. Not sure it’s as bad as Sao Paolo or JoBurg, but still.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-03-10 20:50:11

The hepatitis is optional, but readily available among the teaming mass of homeless people sleeping along the sidewalk just outside the front doors of the glass condo tower where you live.

Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-03-10 18:57:58

San Diego, CA Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Southern California Jobs Evaporate

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-03-10 20:46:02

Leaving California? After slowing, the trend intensifies
AP Photo/Paul Sakuma
A moving truck is shown at a house that was sold in Palo Alto, Calif.
By Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox | Orange County Register
PUBLISHED: April 23, 2017 at 12:08 am | UPDATED: April 23, 2017 at 12:10 am

Given its iconic hold on the American imagination, the idea that more Americans are leaving California than coming breaches our own sense of uniqueness and promise. Yet, even as the economy has recovered, notably in the Bay Area and in pockets along the coast, the latest U.S. Census Bureau estimates show that domestic migrants continue to leave the state more rapidly than they enter it.

First, the good news. People may be leaving California, but, overall, the rate of leaving is about three-quarters less than that experienced in the first decade of the millennium. In the core, booming San Francisco metropolitan area, there was even a shift toward net domestic migration after 2010, something rarely seen since the 1980s.

Outmigration dropped with the initial economic slowdown of the last recession, particularly as housing prices in some areas, notably the Inland Empire and the Sacramento area, drifted toward the national norm of three times incomes by 2010, having been twice that high or more in the boom times. The initial recovery after 2010 may also have encouraged people to stay as well.

Back to mounting outmigration

The San Francisco Bay Area lost more than 600,000 net domestic migrants between 2000 and 2009 before experiencing a five-year respite. Now, sadly, the story seems to be changing again. Housing prices, first in the Bay Area and later in other metropolitan areas, have surged mightily, and are now as high as over nine times household incomes. In 2016, some 26,000 more people left the Bay Area than arrived. San Francisco net migration went from a high of 16,000 positive in 2013 to 12,000 negative three years later.

Similar patterns have occurred across the state. Between 2010 and 2015, California had cut its average annual migration losses annually from 160,000 to 50,000, but that number surged last year to nearly 110,000. Losses in the Los Angeles-Orange County area have gone from 42,000 in 2011 to 88,000 this year. San Diego, where domestic migration turned positive in 2011 and 2012, is now losing around 8,000 net migrants annually.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-03-10 21:16:18

The Sacramento 🐝
Roughly 5 million people left California in the last decade. See where they went.
By Phillip Reese -

An unprecedented number of Californians left for other states during the last decade, according to new tax return data from the Internal Revenue Service.

About 5 million Californians left between 2004 and 2013. Roughly 3.9 million people came here from other states during that period, for a net population loss of more than 1 million people.

The trend resulted in a net loss of about $26 billion in annual income.

About 600,000 California residents left for Texas, which drew more Californians than any other state. Roughly 350,000 people came from Texas to California.

The housing boom, recession and housing bust, which hit California harder than most states, likely played a role in the trend. The greatest net population losses occurred during the housing boom, the IRS data show, when many Californians were priced out of the market. The subsequent recession saw many people lose their homes and jobs and go to states with lower unemployment. Conservative analyst and Hoover Institute Fellow Carson Bruno also blames the state’s high cost of living and tax structure.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-03-10 21:27:38

‘Exodus’ of the middle class from the Central Coast
Posted: Feb 26, 2018 10:50 PM PST
Updated: Feb 27, 2018 12:29 AM PST
By Carina Corral

There’s no question about it: the middle class is on the move.

They’re leaving California - and the Central Coast - in droves.

When we put out the call on KSBY’s Facebook page to see if anyone locally was planning to move, the response was overwhelming: more than 51,000 people reached, with nearly 500 comments, mostly from people saying they’ve already left, want to leave, or intend to leave because of the cost of living.

The Kujawskis are perfect examples. They just moved from Oceano to Arizona. KSBY News spoke with them as they were packing up.

“Our mortgage will be $1,000 less and that coupled with property taxes, which is like $4,000 less, it’s insane,” Rachel Kujawski said.

Even with a good paying job, the parents of two said they just could not get ahead here. That’s something moving company Meathead Movers hears a lot.

“Our clients are telling us, ‘I can’t afford to live here. The cost of living is so expensive, even with two jobs, we cant make it,’” Meathead Movers Call Center Manager Frances Heredia said.

She added their out-of-state moves have increased 91 percent since 2016, with most people headed to Arizona, Oregon, and Nevada.

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau released in November showed San Luis Obispo County had one of the highest migration numbers of all Southern California counties, and the trend is people leaving, not arriving: 657,690 people left California in 2016 — the highest rate in the nation. Albeit a small portion of our population, the folks we heard from said they cannot afford to stay.

Comment by rms
2018-03-10 22:04:05

Lots of boiled frog on the Central Coast.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-03-10 21:40:30

With so many people leaving, what props up California’s housing bubble these days?

U.S. News Crowns California Worst State for ‘Quality of Life’
California Tattoo (Joel Pollak / Breitbart News)
Joel Pollak / Breitbart News
by Chriss W. Street
28 Feb 2018
Newport Beach, CA

The U.S. News & World Report has named California the worst state for “quality of life,” largely due to the high cost of living.

U.S. News ranks the 50 U.S. states each year on eight major social and economic categories to determine an overall competitive ranking. California received an overall score of 32 in 2018, based on sub-category rankings for a Health Care (11); Education (26); Economy (4); Opportunity (46); Infrastructure (38); Crime and Corrections (28); Fiscal Stability (43); and Quality of Life (50).

U.S. News found California’s high cost of living to be its biggest detriment, despite its having the largest economy in the nation. San Jose and San Francisco both ranked in the 20 top places to live in U.S., but two communities were also in the most expensive for housing.

California’s 2016 median household income of $67,739 was ranked ninth nationally. The 18 percent higher income average compared to the national average of $57,617 might seem attractive, but California also had four of North America’s top 10 high cost of living cities.

California’s income reporting is being pushed up by the state’s large concentrations of Hollywood media celebrities, Silicon Valley technologists, and Orange County real estate developers, whoconsistently make huge amounts of money.

But the state’s largest industries are more middle-class including professional and business services; educational and health services; financial activities; leisure and hospitality; retail trade; manufacturing; construction; information processing; and farming.

U.S. News found that California’s infrastructure and housing availability have not kept up with an immigrant population surge over the last two decades. Three in 10 Californians were born outside the U.S. — the highest in the nation — with about half of the immigrants moving up from Latin America and about 39 percent coming from Asia.

Breitbart News reported in December that Southern California’s resident population experienced a “net domestic outmigration” of 64,953 for the last 12-month period. About 85 percent of California’s outmigration was concentrated in the middle 20 percent income bracket and the next lower quintile bracket.

Comment by CryptoNick
2018-03-10 19:41:20

A Bitcoin Twitter War Is Raging And No Account Is Safe
Leigh Cuen
12 hours ago
broken, keyboard

“Paging @Bitcoin. These tweets don’t help anyone.”

At first glance, the tweet, from investor and entrepreneur Nick Tomaino, might not be distinguishable in the all-out flame war that crypto Twitter - and all crypto social media - has become.

But while the situation has long been simmering, Tomaino’s tweet comes at what might be a new boiling point, following what was arguably the account’s most controversial message in history.

Issued Wednesday, the tweet found @bitcoin sending a message to its more than 800,000 followers that, as Tomaino’s tweet shows, even impartial observers would admit was incendiary, attacking the group that maintains the cryptocurrency’s most widely used software and promoting an alternative cryptocurrency that split off last year.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-03-10 20:06:02

This entire crypto nonsense is amusing as hell.

Comment by Jingle Male
2018-03-10 19:56:35

Watched Trump’s speech here in China on CNN. Anytime he started talking about China, the screen went blank until he was through. It happened twice! Censorship in full force.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-03-10 20:25:08


Newport, NC Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY As Vacation Property Market Collapses

Comment by Jingle Male
2018-03-11 02:00:28

OK. How about I could see the sun rise through the 200,000SF vacant office building sitting outside my hotel in Wuxi. It looks to be 5 years old or so. Stone cold shell. Lots of empty warehouses too.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-03-11 03:43:44

Housing my good friend.

Deerfield, MA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-03-11 05:50:17

Sounds reminiscent of the late-1980s commercial real estate bust in the U.S., in the run-up to the early-1990s recession.

I guess the theory that you can construct your way out of a growth slowdown is getting tested again over there.

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Comment by azdude
2018-03-11 07:08:04

is the FED bluffing about reducing its balance sheet? The major central banks have racked up a 20 trillion balance sheet propping up stock markets. ECB, BOJ, SNB, BOE, FED most of that money makes it into US stocks. SNB is one of the largest owners of AAPL. FOMO has really been a tool to get retail to buy.

Are these markets legit?

Comment by Jingle Male
2018-03-12 15:09:01

My business partner says the vacant buildings really aren’t the issue. The cost and debt service are not the important factors. It is being always ready to create jobs, so having the ready real estate inventory (and huge infrastructure capacity) to build new companies is one important component.

The provincial and municipal entities can offer free and low cost buildings and provide tax breaks (corporate rates drop for 25% to 15% to sometimes 0%). It is pretty amazing how industrious this country is.

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Comment by rms
2018-03-10 21:51:32

“All hail, Xi Dada. Start with politics. Mr Xi has used his power to reassert the dominance of the Communist Party and of his own position within it. As part of a campaign against corruption, he has purged potential rivals. He has executed a sweeping reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), partly to ensure its loyalty to the party, and to him personally. He has imprisoned free-thinking lawyers and stamped out criticism of the party and the government in the media and online. Though people’s personal lives remain relatively free, he is creating a surveillance state to monitor discontent and deviance.”

It’s good to be the king.

Comment by Mr. Banker
Comment by rms
2018-03-11 10:02:16

I can still remember Nixon piercing the Chinese trade veil.

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Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-03-11 11:10:29

I’m assuming this trailer is banned in China:

Xi Jinping = Pooh Bear

“Find the thing you like and stick to it.” No more term limits for China’s Supreme Leader.

Comment by jeff
2018-03-11 01:17:02

Mack the Knife-Bobby Darin

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-03-11 08:11:48

Mack the Knife reminds me of Dick Tuck.

One of the pranks Dick Tuck would play on Richard Nixon was to arrange to have the welcoming band strike up Mack the Knife when Nixon arrived on the scene.

Article here …

Comment by azdude
2018-03-11 05:56:24

ca has the most prosperous real estate market in the world.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-03-11 05:56:37

Watch “🇻🇪 From riches to rags: Venezuela’s economic crisis | The Big Picture” on YouTube

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-03-11 11:21:32

Great watch Mr. Banker, thanks for sharing. It seems to me that Venezuela’s downfall can be attributed to 3 things: 1) Non-diversified economy dependent on oil 2) Running up massive debt to fund redistributive social programs 3) Nationalization of productive sectors of the economy and running parallel institutions with bureaucratic bloat.

The lesson for Venezuela could be a lesson for Saudi Arabia or any other petrol state as the world moves away from oil towards renewables.

Comment by azdude
2018-03-11 06:18:18

for a good laugh check out the speakers at the toronto real estate expo! LMFAO

Comment by rms
2018-03-11 10:27:15

It’s time to cash out your 401k and get in early… lock in those profits!

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-03-11 07:14:51

It seems like the Trump tariff proposal is on a roll.

Is there any chance of a related measure to reduce conquest by purchase of U.S. residential real estate, such as a foreign buyer tax like the one that was so successfully implemented in Vancouver? Such policies could go a long way towards providing the affordable housing which Democrat policies have long pursued but never succeeded to deliver.

Comment by azdude
2018-03-11 07:17:44

the central banks wont let the air come out of these bubbles.

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