What Did I Buy During The Binge?
A report from the Alabama Newscenter. “The multifamily market is hot. Rents continue to rise, occupancies remain strong and the development pipeline seems to be all but slowing down. In Huntsville, nine of the 13 multifamily developments in the pipeline — planned, prospective or under construction — are luxury, A-class projects totaling 4,133 units. Can the multifamily market continue to command premium prices?”
“‘Nearby markets like Nashville are flooding their metros with these A-class products and have started to experience a steady decline in occupancy over the course of 2017; however, Huntsville discretionary assets have managed to maintain a 95 percent occupancy over the last 12 months. With the arrival of so many new science and technology companies, we will see a surge in the young professional population, the primary renters of luxury, multifamily units in the Rocket City. This population will continue to drive rental rates and fill the downtown dwellings,’ said veteran multifamily specialist Andrew Agee.”
From RE Business Online on Tennessee. “Nashville has set several notable records in recent years for job growth, rent growth, population growth, tourism and tax revenue, among others. But for the multifamily industry, the most notable benchmarks lately have been related to the amount of inventory that has been delivered. The big question on everyone’s mind is the impact of new supply. In short, yes, there are pockets of oversupply, with approximately 8,500 units delivered in 2017 compared with net renter demand of roughly 6,300.”
“Given the steady levels of new inventory delivered to the market, the pace of rent growth has slowed, especially at the top end of the market, where most of the new projects are competing. Increased concessions in urban Nashville caused effective rents to back up 3.3 percent. Urban Nashville currently shows the lowest average occupancy for 2017 at 93.2 percent.”
From Urban Milwaukee in Wisconsin. “Wangard Partners went before the City of Milwaukee Board of Zoning Appeals Thursday seeking changes to a long-planned project for the city’s greater downtown area. Wangard initially planned apartments there, but now has plans for condominiums. Michael Cockroft, a project manager for Wangard, said the firm re-evaluated their plans in light of changing markets for housing downtown. Apparently the market for high-end apartments downtown is starting to look saturated as vacancy rates rise. And Cockroft said those looking downtown are increasingly interested in owning a home downtown, thus, the condos.”
“Is this the end of the apartment boom downtown? Wangard appears to be signaling that. Apartment developments are still occurring Downtown, and in big ways. But if a major developer like Wangard is already hesitant about the apartment market, what does that mean for those projects that have yet to cut a ribbon? That could be worrisome… except that other apartment projects are still going strong.”
The Greenville Reflector in North Carolina. “A new housing complex is being planned for Charles Boulevard. It has generated some controversy because it applied for a special-use permit to include dormitory-style apartments. Since a recent study noted that Greenville’s student housing market is already oversaturated, adding more bedrooms for the younger set seems just plain silly. So I am working up a proposal for Landmark Developers, the company that is planning the complex.”
“Landmark wants to call the dormitory portion of its project The Retreat. Instead, why not go for the middle-aged crowd with The Repeat? Repeat is a great name for housing targeting middle-aged people. I am constantly asking people to repeat things, either because I did not hear them or because I have forgotten what they told me. It has a built-in joke factor too if people ask us where we live, we can just shout ‘Repeat! Repeat!’ then laugh wildly when they ask the question again and again.”
From the National Real Estate Investor. “It’s no secret that seniors housing is in high demand, with the independent and assisted living subsets the most desirable. But there are also currently major supply issues in the sector, as some markets are beginning to see a lot of new product and, as a result, stagnating occupancy rates. In the fourth quarter of 2017, the national occupancy rate—based on aggregated data from 31 markets—averaged 88.8 percent, down 70 basis points year-over-year, according to the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care.”
“Many industry insiders may be quick to say that seniors housing is overdeveloped in most markets, but that is an issue in many asset classes, particularly in places with lower barriers to entry—for example, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, San Antonio and Denver, says Aron Will, vice chairman of debt and structured finance, seniors housing, at real estate services firm CBRE. ‘Those are the markets where supply-demand is at an imbalance,’ Will says.”
From Senior Housing News. “Pricing senior housing properties is more of an art than a science—and today’s prospective buyers weigh different components in wide variety of ways. As senior housing buyers, real estate investment trusts (REITs) are nowhere near as active as they once were, panelists agreed. Currently, they’re acting more as sellers than buyers.”
“That’s because, for a few years, REITs were ‘hungry, hungry hippos,’ Ross Sanders, senior director within HFF’s national seniors housing group, expressed during the panel. To put it plainly, REITs went on a buying spree, picking up a variety of assets that they then held on to for a while. ‘Then last year and this year, they’re trying to figure out, ‘What did I buy during the binge?’ Ross said.”
The Norman Transcript in Oklahoma. “A local buyer recently purchased Summerfield Village Apartments on Lindsey Street in Norman. The buying entity is controlled by David H. Kinnard who owns the adjacent Springfield Village Apartments. Kinnard said over investment by out of state interests and the university’s decision to build residential housing collided and created the current soft market. ‘The student market is well over-served,’ Kinnard said. ‘There’s an imbalance in the market that needs to be righted.’”
“Mike Buhl of Commercial Realty Resources Co. handled the sale. He said investors and owners may have to adjust their expectations while Norman is in a soft rental market.”
From the Bend Bulletin in Oregon. “A mother-daughter property development team from Chicago is bullish on the Central Oregon rental market, despite hundreds of new units in the works for Bend and reports from property managers that rents have flattened. The Kapps are looking for more places they can build projects like The 27 Elm, which will be 36 townhouse units. ‘Where we came from in Chicago, they’re overbuilt again,’ said Jeanmarie Kapp of the multifamily rental market. ‘Here, people are still looking for rental options.’”
“Plus Property Management lists a three-bedroom townhouse with a garage on NW 25th Street in Redmond for $1,295 per month. That rent is the same as a year ago, property manager Mike Hoff said. Hoff said his company, which is based in Bend, noticed fewer applications last year for properties in all Central Oregon cities. Other property managers in Bend have cited the opening of new, large apartment complexes in Bend as creating more competition for renters. ‘There was a definite slowdown in the market,’ he said. ‘You don’t want to raise rents.’”
Parker, CO Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Empty Housing Inventory Floods Area
https://www.movoto.com/parker-co/market-trends/
‘Hoff said his company, which is based in Bend, noticed fewer applications last year for properties in all Central Oregon cities. Other property managers in Bend have cited the opening of new, large apartment complexes in Bend as creating more competition for renters. ‘There was a definite slowdown in the market,’ he said. ‘You don’t want to raise rents.’
Oh dear…
“A mother-daughter property development team from Chicago is bullish on the Central Oregon rental market, despite hundreds of new units in the works for Bend and reports from property managers that rents have flattened. The Kapps are looking for more places they can build projects like The 27 Elm, which will be 36 townhouse units. ‘Where we came from in Chicago, they’re overbuilt again,’ said Jeanmarie Kapp of the multifamily rental market. ‘Here, people are still looking for rental options.’”
Locusts swarming everywhere. I was just in Bend a few months ago. The streets are not paved with gold, and the wages are poor. My trailer hitch ball and mount were stolen off of my truck one night - a $100+ loss.
Bend is overbuilt & and over speculated. Look on Zillow for how many homes are for sale. Lovely area but there is to much money chasing it. I have been looking at buying there for a couple of years but prices have made me step back.
I presume that this also means that pricey pickup truck sales will soon be in the cr@pper and there will be 5 digit discounts in a futile attempt to unload them.
I didn’t see anything pertaining to auto and truck sales. Did I miss something?
Many are bought with HELOCS
Housing my friends.
Central Point, OR Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Underwater Speculators Default
https://www.movoto.com/central-point-or/market-trends/
the P/U index is key
same for white vans-Oxide is counting them
Heh, I gave up counting after I needed three hands in the parking lot at 7-11.
“…there will be 5 digit discounts in a futile attempt to unload them.”
I need a decent 4×4 hang glider hauler, so I’m ready. I am willing to drop $12k… not $35k.
John Oliver on cryptocurrencies: ‘This market is essentially the Wild West’
Published: Mar 12, 2018 12:30 p.m. ET
Bitcoin has value because people say it has value, according to the ‘Last Week Tonight’ host
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/john-oliver-on-cryptocurrencies-this-market-is-essentially-the-wild-west-2018-03-12#false
Dumbest.Bubble.Ever.
“Dumbest.Bubble.Ever”
Bought into by the dumbest people ever.
Well, at least no carrying costs…
I have been following Welltower (HCN) for awhile now.
I figured baby boomers getting older and a 6.5% dividend can’t be wrong.
It has plummeted from $75 to $50 in the last six months.
Maybe a bottom soon. But I ain’t catching that knife!
++++
From Senior Housing News. “Pricing senior housing properties is more of an art than a science—and today’s prospective buyers weigh different components in wide variety of ways. As senior housing buyers, real estate investment trusts (REITs) are nowhere near as active as they once were, panelists agreed. Currently, they’re acting more as sellers than buyers.”
“That’s because, for a few years, REITs were ‘hungry, hungry hippos,’ Ross Sanders, senior director within HFF’s national seniors housing group, expressed during the panel. To put it plainly, REITs went on a buying spree, picking up a variety of assets that they then held on to for a while. ‘Then last year and this year, they’re trying to figure out, ‘What did I buy during the binge?’ Ross said.”
what keeps CIM afloat?
As a senior who owns his house outright, I see far too many houses in retirement communities being unwisely financed. No matter if I might like a more expensive home - I am not about to go into debt at this age. To me, it makes no sense at all to grant a 30-year loan to someone who is over 70. Too many seniors don’t grasp that they should either lower their expectations about where to live, or else rent a dwelling instead of purchasing one. Here in Florida I see many seniors go belly up financially because they took out a mortgage for the purchase, or else used a HELOC or reverse mortgage and finally hit a cash-flow wall. In Thailand, a homebuyer cannot receive financing for a period that is greater than something like 65 minus their age at the time of the loan. That, to me, is sensible banking. In Texas, as I understand it, after initial financing of a home additional mortgage debt cannot exceed a 20-80 loan-to-value ratio. This also is sensible to me.
If you don’t offer a30 year loan to a 70 year old you will be guilty of discrimination. Same thing with a 90 year old.
Always remember, The Government knows best and is here to help you
‘Survey claims half of Bay Area residents plan to leave California’
‘Expat plans even higher among Millennials and those with children’
‘The big shocker: Of the 500 Bay Area residents polled, 49 percent agree with the statement “I am considering moving away from California because of the high cost of living.” Statewide, 58 percent of Millennials and 65 percent of parents echoed the sentiment.’
No, they need to stay and help pay for the High Speed Rail project!
Originally estimated to cost $33 billion, now up to $77 billion and rising:
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-train-cost-increase-20180309-story.html
And now with the $10,000 income deduct cap A LOT more $$$$ must actually come from CA taxpayers!!!!
Just a data point.
I recently found out that Pennsylvania is the third most popular destination for retirement.
Why? Not for the winters!
They don’t tax pensions or 401k withdraws.
+++++
“Many industry insiders may be quick to say that seniors housing is overdeveloped in most markets, but that is an issue in many asset classes, particularly in places with lower barriers to entry—for example, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, San Antonio and Denver,
Is PA a “destination” for retirement in that folks actually move there, or are there just a lot of people already there aging in place? There are still a lot of Boomers retired from those defunct factories, and Philly is still a huge city.
That said, PA is beautiful state. The winters aren’t as bad as advertised, especially in the flatter southern tier (Gettysburg –> Harrisburg –> Lancaster –> Philly).
I figure that as a GenXer, by the time I retire in 20+ years, I won’t have much competition for the assisted living inventory that’s being built right now. I could go almost anywhere, and PA was on my list.
Hey Donk
No tax on retirement income is a big draw for Pennsylvania, especially for people from other states in the northeast.
Wasn’t Oil City in PA?
Oil City *is* still in PA. It’s about halfway between Pittsburgh and Lake Erie. I drove through it last summer just to see what it was like. It’s not as lifeless as one would think — got some kids and schools. However, I suspect it’s being kept alive by social security and other gov cheese, not by young folks and true industries. Probably riddled with opioids too, but I couldn’t tell from the short visit.
and nc beach area for the winter
Poconos is cool in summer ,no ac needed
Did they tax ira withdrawals?
In the Bernie Sanders Utopia - buying votes is cheap.
+++++
For poor Venezuelans, a box of food may sway vote for Maduro
By Andreina Aponte and Ana Isabel Martinez - Reuters - March 12, 2018
CARACAS (Reuters) - A bag of rice on a hungry family’s kitchen table could be the key to Nicolas Maduro retaining the support of poor Venezuelans in May’s presidential election.
For millions of Venezuelans suffering an unprecedented economic crisis, a monthly handout of a box of heavily-subsidized basic food supplies by Maduro’s unpopular government has offered a tenuous lifeline in their once-prosperous OPEC nation.
The 55-year-old successor to Hugo Chavez introduced the so-called CLAP boxes in 2016 in a signature policy of his rule, continuing the socialist government’s strategy of seeking public support with cash bonuses and other giveaways.
Mariana, a single mother who lives in the poor hillside neighborhood of Petare in the capital Caracas, says the handouts will decide her vote.
Life in the South American country’s poor ‘barrios’ revolves around the CLAP boxes. According to the government, six million families receive the benefit, from a population of around 30 million people.
Stamped with the faces of Maduro and Chavez, the CLAP boxes usually contain rice, pasta, grains, cooking oil, powdered milk, canned tuna and other basic goods. Recipients pay 25,000 bolivars per box, or about $0.12 at the black market rate.
A dozen recipients told Reuters that often they arrived half-full and would only come every few months. Outside of the capital Caracas, delivery was even more sporadic.
When her family is short of food, she hunts for leftovers dumped on the side of Petare’s winding streets. She said she had found several newborn babies discarded in the gutter, which she attributed to mothers unable to face providing food for another child.
Another Petare resident, mother-of-three Yaneidy Guzman said she dropped from 68kg to 48kg last year, despite receiving the CLAP.
The missing link …
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-food/for-poor-venezuelans-a-box-of-food-may-sway-vote-for-maduro-idUSKCN1GO173
Why don’t progressives/liberals want to live under progressive/liberal rules and laws when they have ABSOLUTE POWER?
++++
Mayor Rahm Emanuel has a challenger, a young tech guy ‘who gives a s—‘
Chicago Sun Times - 03/11/2018
A young tech entrepreneur from the South Side quietly has begun organizing a bid to challenge Mayor Rahm Emanuel in next year’s election.
“There are a lot of people who want to see something different,” Sales-Griffin said. “They’re fed up with what’s going on.”
Sales-Griffin said he’s motivated to run in large part because he sees so many members of his family and others leaving Chicago for the suburbs and other states.
“People are moving away, and people who are stuck here are dealing with things they shouldn’t have to deal with,” he said. “My Thanksgiving table is shrinking, and that’s not OK.”
He said he had helped Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign in Iowa in 2016 and was a “big fan” of President Barack Obama. He’s also on the board of the new left-leaning news organization started by 47th Ward Ald. Ameya Pawar.
Wait, shouldn’t this clown be protesting Thanksgiving as a celebration of white oppression of native peoples? And by holding thanksgiving isn’t he guilty of cultural appropriation?
If this guy starts getting some poll numbers, expect Rahm to call up some MS-13 buddies and arrange an “accident”. Its the Chicago way after all.
whitey had the wheel
And there it is.
+++++
London house prices slump the most since financial crisis
Market Watch - Mar 12, 2018 - Sara Sjolin
House prices in London have dropped the most since the height of the financial crisis, underscoring the impact from rising inflation and uncertainty over the U.K.’s exit from the European Union.
The average price of a home in the capital dropped to £593,396 ($822,447) in the three months to January, down 2.6% from the same period last year, according to a report by data provider Acadata out on Monday. In comparison, house prices across all of England and Wales rose 0.7% during the period, with the biggest jump seen in the North West.
“This is the steepest annual rate of decline in London prices since August 2009, during the last housing slump, which was itself associated with the banking credit crisis of 2008/09,” Acadata said in the report.
Even with the recent drop in London house prices, the capital remains an expensive place to live. In the most pricey borough — Kensington and Chelsea — a home costs an average £2.2 million ($3.05 million), while potential buyers have to fork out £300,000 ($337,812) in the cheapest area of Barking and Dagenham.
The cult and bubble of Amazon will crash.
They make no money, have an astronomical P/E and think “creative disruption” will somehow lead to profits.
Is this their Waterloo?
+++++
Whole Foods calls meeting with key vendors as tensions flare
Lauren Hirsch - CNBC.com - 3/12/2018
Tensions between Whole Foods Market and some of the most important brands it sells in its stores will come to a head on March 19, when they will congregate for a recently announced summit, sources familiar with the situation tell CNBC.
A major point of debate for its larger vendors is the new servicing fee, proposed in the last few months, which will charge vendors for Whole Foods’ efforts to centralize its merchandising, sources said. Still, some of the sources noted their reliance on Whole Foods as a customer gives them little power with which to bargain.
Now, Whole Foods wants to control that process, and will charge some companies roughly 3 to 5 percent of sales for the service. The shift was first reported by the Washington Post.
Vendors are not happy. Some say that fee is too high. Others note that being forced to use Whole Foods’ systems hurts their relationship with their personal brokers, on whom they rely for the rest of their grocery business. By paying Whole Foods to do the merchandising, vendors have less money and less product to give their brokers that manage relations with other retailers.
Whole Foods hasn’t disclosed its reason for shifting to this model, but one key advantage that it could give them is data. Brokers represent multiple brands and work with multiple retailers. Cutting them out of the process means Whole Foods limits the number of people that know what goes on in its stores and who can share that information with others.
Whole Foods sells the good chicken thighs and drums. The family packs are $2.49 / lb regular price, which is competitive with traditional grocers for a much better product. I tried the Sprouts / Henry’s / Wild Oats chicken but seriously, those chickens must be on steroids or something. I just read if I order $35 worth of food, I get free 2 hr delivery. Thats pretty awesome since I usually have to make a special trip there for the chicken. Chicken + 8 bottles of pinot grigio = $35!
Q. Why is Whole Foods doing this?
A. Because it can.
“Whole Foods hasn’t disclosed its reason for shifting to this model, but one key advantage that it could give them is data. Brokers represent multiple brands and work with multiple retailers. Cutting them out of the process means Whole Foods limits the number of people that know what goes on in its stores and who can share that information with others.”
If pukes allow themselves to be placed into a Gotcha situation then chances are good that they are going to be squeezed.
Oh, the pain!
Any news on Amazon mortgages?
Or Amazon car insurance? How about Amazon internet service? Let’s all just stamp an A on our forehead, and call ourselves Amazonians. Gawd I hate that company.
Can I get hookers and coke via Amazon, or do I still have to use Backpage for that?
Or the Amazon bank account? That would have been quite the coup: Customers direct deposit their paychecks into Amazon checking, and customers can pay for Amazon stuff straight from their Amazon checking account without paying middleman fees to Mastercard.
Just heard from a friend who works at a local Kroger affiliate here in the Denver area that shortly after Bozos took over Whole paycheck a flood of clerks and shelvers went there thinking that they would cut a better deal - guess what - they apparently are wanting to come back to King Soopers and management has told them - “you bailed - get lost”. Welcome to the world of Jeff Bozos.
Whaaaat!? They’d rather work at King’s and not at Whole Paycheck?
Whoulda thunk?
My employer, who despite making 10B profit a year, receives a LOT of criticism for not being more like Amazon and its stock price is punished because of that.
This doesn’t really bother me. It’s Amazon’s version of extreme vertical integration. They want to own a good chuck of the distribution pipeline, similar to how they want independent sellers to just send them their wares and have everything fulfilled by Amazon.
There is a lot of antipathy towards Amazon on this blog, but I admire their creative destruction. Sure, their profits are razor thin, but that is also a key component of their strategy. By running such a thin profit margin, they are creating a barrier to entry that is almost impossible to match. A lot of of the gripes I hear about Amazon remind me of what I heard about Walmart when they were disrupting the grocery and supermarket business. The one bone I have to pick with Amazon is the local tax breaks and give-aways they are handed out by local governments and the fact that their purchases aren’t assessed sales tax in all jurisdiction. On that point, DJT is right: Amazon needs to charge and collect taxes just like every other retailer.
Realtors are liars.
Coburg, OR Housing Prices Crater 34% YOY As Eugene Area Housing Correction Expands
https://www.movoto.com/central-point-or/market-trends/
https://www.movoto.com/coburg-or/market-trends/
if you fought the central bankers i really dont feel sorry for u missing a 10 year bull market.
azdude
Your “skunk/woodpile” comment remains disturbing and actually quite chilling.
This whole thing is over my head. Can somebody explain?
Original comment
Comment by azdude
2018-03-09 07:18:45
where is the skunk in the woodpile?
TOP DEFINITION Urban Dictionary
skunk in the wood pile
An old saying that means that someone has a little black in them somewhere. Skunk refferring to an African American relative and wood pile representing the family tree.
See that white kid dance….shit, he must have a little skunk in the wood pile.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=skunk%20in%20the%20wood%20pile
“Michael Cockroft, a project manager for Wangard…”
um, really?
Math time:
26ft x 80ft = 2080 ft2 total space for 20 people
Divided by 20 people = 104 ft2/pp
$25,000/104ft2 = 240 $/ft2
In the middle of nowhere.
Real estate scam or investment?
And will Amazon sell the mortgages?
+++++++
Inside the luxury doomsday bunker complex the size of a CITY in South Dakota where 10,000 people will prepare for ‘the end of the world’
UK Daily Mail | March 12, 2018 | Phoebe Weston
A complex of doomsday bunkers in South Dakota that can house 10,000 people is being hailed as the ‘back up plan for mankind’.
Equipped with survival gear and custom-made interiors, the city-sized complex could save thousands in case of an asteroid strike or nuclear war, the creator claims.
Although the structures look imposing from the outside they have all the home comforts, including sofas, a coffee table and paintings hanging on the walls.
Vivos, the company building the doomsday bunkers, is developing 18 square miles (29 square kilometres) of military space in South Dakota.
The bunkers are about 26 feet wide and up to 80 feet long (8 metres by 24 metres) and have enough room to keep supplies for 12 months.
Each one can house between 10 to 20 people.
‘The base is 18 squares miles, so about three quarters the size of Manhatten’, said Robery Vicino, founder and CEO of Vivos.
‘To not have this and to have a back up plan for mankind to have an insurance policy is crazy.
‘At the cost we’re able to do this - $25,000 [£18,000] per bunker its nothing, so it’s crazy not to.
The company bought the space in 2016 and the first bunkers are due to be ready for move-in this summer.
‘
Link …
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5490783/Inside-doomsday-bunker-complex-size-CITY.html
Nothing screams “peak” like this insanity. I’ll take my chances. If the SHTF, I’d rather die than live in one of those things.
Hehe… looks like they’re running out of land.
If they think they are the “backup for mankind,” they need to skip the paintings on the walls, and instead spend the money on the most advanced and self-contained maternity ward in the state, including a 20+ year stockpile of medical supplies.
Yeah, good luck finding bandages that are still sticky after ten years.
There were some cool things about growing up in Old Greenwich. We were always going to eat 5 plates of all you can eat pancakes but flamed out on plate number 2 year in and year out.
Back in the 60s and 70s this event would have mostly groups of 6 or 7 kids, boys or girls who rode their bikes on their own, same way we signed up and got ourselves to little league.
Looking at these pictures it’s mostly parents who brought younger kids and older people.
Photos: Greenwich Lions Club 58th annual Pancake Breakfast
Updated 3:35 pm, Saturday, March 10, 2018
Greenwich Lions Club member Giff Reed smiles while working the grittle during the Greenwich Lions Club 58th annual Pancake Breakfast event at the Old Greenwich Civic Center, Conn., Saturday, March 10, 2018.
Reed said he has worked 55 of the breakfasts going all the way back to when it was held at the Old Greenwich School. Reed said about the charity event “we are hoping to serve more than 1,000 and that helps to serve the community. Thank you Greenwich.”
Funds raised from the event will go towards grants to other organizations and providing glasses and other vision services to the community.
Lions Club member Kevin McCarthy said “the Lions Club pancake breakfast is one of the sure signs of spring in Greenwich and spring can’t come soon enough.”
https://www.greenwichtime.com/local/article/Photos-Greenwich-Lions-58th-annual-Pancake-12743498.php
I hate to sound like an old curmudgeon, but those were the days.
I couldn’t believe that a-holes that tried to shut down the Sam Bridge Nursery on North Street in Greenwich. The place is an institution, but the newly arrived financial biz neighbor got a wild hair across his butt.
https://www.greenwichtime.com/local/article/Greenwich-s-Sam-Bridge-Nursery-rallies-11965624.php
Cripes, I hate what this over-financialized society has become. Creeps all over the place.
I love to hear of old school community events like this. Where we used to live it was Midway Swiss Days:
https://midwayswissdays.com/FoodBooths.php
Pretty cool thanks for posting.
Where could a person get an 8% return on cash in the next year?
Ask Donk Craterton.
You don’t mean me? FYI my house has been appreciating at about 3%/year. A little higher than inflation, but hardly bubble territory.
Hey Donk.
stawks and homes!
Certainly don’t give it to this guy: http://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/crime/article204721464.html
The only place I can think of that offers anything close to an 8% yield is in the retail REIT space. Certainly no sure thing…plenty-o-risk, but some have plenty-o-yield.
DDR: Yields about 10% (but they are going to sell off a bunch of property, make special dividends and then the dividend will be lower…but you would have gotten a bunch of cash back)
Kimco - KIM: 7.6% yield (don’t know much about this one)
Spirit Realty - SRC: 9% yield (has a similar break-up strategy as DDR…question as to how it will all shake out)
Pennsylvania REIT - PEI: 8.5% yield
I wouldn’t call anything that yields 8%+ “safe”, but I do think that the market has overdone the selloff in retail.
If you are truly looking for an 8% return on cash (not buying stock or assets that can go down in value), I don’t know that an 8% return is available anywhere for cash…tell me if you find it.
w that an 8% return is available anywhere for cash…tell me if you find it.
I just rolled over a 401k that was a good chunk of change into a 5-year CD at 3.2%. As far as I can tell from depositaccounts.com, that is the highest FDIC/NCUA insured product in the country. I wasn’t keep on moving that money to any stocks, bonds, or real estate, so I’m parking it for a bit.
Rental Watch
Some see REITS as a contrarian play.
“Some see REITS as a contrarian play.”
I think that all depends on the type of REIT.
A REIT that owns industrial property (Prologis) is absolutely not contrarian.
A REIT that owns retail absolutely is contrarian.
And this shows up in the yields. PLD yields about 3%…but then again just announced a meaningful increase in their dividend. DDR yields close to 10%, and just got hit again because of their exposure to Toys R Us (about 1% of their revenue).
PLD is priced assuming lots of continued rental growth (which I find hard to argue with).
DDR is getting priced assuming lots of their real estate is worthless…which I think is far too pessimistic.
A couple of things I ran across and a couple of observations and a shout out -
First for your viewing interest - have any on the HBB watched that docu series on the Netflix called “Flint Town”. Just amazing to think that next to Detroit some 50+ years ago it was one of the wealthiest towns on the entire planet and today - not so much. Worth a watch if you have not seen it - the thing that got me as I watched the 10 part series is the block upon block of abandoned houses all boarded up, tattoed with graffitti and over grown. The violence, the lack of funding for public safety and on and on. What has happened to this country for heaven’s sake?!!!
Second is this article from Market Watch last week…..linky here….
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/many-older-americans-are-living-a-desperate-nomadic-life-2017-11-06
The article points out that increasingly older Americans are leading a desperate, nomadic life on the road picking up seasonal work and living in trailer encampments, national forests you name it. I have seen a bit of this in AZ - the Winnebago encampments but not is all to what the eye sees. I thought that most if not all those encampments were folks that had officially retired. In reality not so much.
I also wanted to give a shout out to a poster here on HBB about the HOMIEX debacle in MX. Read the series with keen interest. I have shared this with many I know in the architectural ranks and most are like - really - this is going on down there too? Amazing what happens when as the scripture says - the scales drop from their eyes.
Finally - I was just down in Ben’s neck of the woods - PHX - seems that up near the intersection Pima and Pinnacle Peak on the way to Cave Creek the building of 12-15K sq ft. 6 car garage manses has not subsided - there are developments with these things going in all across that area. Sheesh!!
Bottom line - pin meet bubble.
Cheers.
rj not in chicago anymore
rj, I think I was the one who posted that LA Times Homex article. I’m glad you liked it. I look forward to watching that documentary on Flint. I have the week off and I am up in Salt Lake County. It is a boom here. I think the official stats show that Salt Lake County is one of the hottest real estate markets in the country. Things were crazy last year, and they seem even crazier now.
I have never seen anything so insane. The pace at which the landscape is being transformed is breathtaking. There are new tech companies and construction going up for miles around in all directions. Every piece of land available along the I-15 corridor is being purchased and insanely nice homes being built in all parts of the land as infill. It’s a bit odd because there are $500k and $600k gated developments going up in areas adjacent that seem rather mediocre to run down. I guess everything is gentrifying pretty quick. Gone are the open orchards, farm land, fields, and horse pastures. Now there are high rise condo complexes, mixed use buildings, and lots of pricey SFH.
One comment about the RV world. My father lived in an RV after he divorced. He did it out of necessity because his businesses were struggling and it was a low point in his life. His fortunes have turned around immensely and he is extremely wealthy as some of his entrepreneurial gambles paid off. But that period of his life truly left a mark on him. He learned about the entire RV subculture and feels a connection to the RV tribe. There are very wealthy RVers as well as destitute ones, and everything in between. He is actually in the process of opening up an RV resort near the Jackson Hole.
Not RE, but interesting… Trump blocks Broadcom-Qualcomm deal due to national security concerns…
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/12/trump-issues-order-prohibiting-broadcoms-bid-to-take-over-qualcomm.html
Yep, called it what, a month or two ago? China trying to pull another fast one and gets STUFFED. Hows that covfefe tasting these days?
Broadcom was a shady company going way back.
The biggest jerk I ever worked with (outside the military) made his money there. Coincidence?
“Yet China is not a market economy and, on its present course, never will be. Instead, it increasingly controls business as an arm of state power. It sees a vast range of industries as strategic. Its “Made in China 2025” plan, for instance, sets out to use subsidies and protection to create world leaders in ten industries, including aviation, tech and energy, which together cover nearly 40% of its manufacturing. Although China has become less blatant about industrial espionage, Western companies still complain of state-sponsored raids on their intellectual property. Meanwhile, foreign businesses are profitable but miserable, because commerce always seems to be on China’s terms. American credit-card firms, for example, were let in only after payments had shifted to mobile phones.”
https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21737517-it-bet-china-would-head-towards-democracy-and-market-economy-gamble-has-failed-how
‘Its “Made in China 2025” plan, for instance, sets out to use subsidies and protection to create world leaders in ten industries, including aviation, tech and energy, which together cover nearly 40% of its manufacturing’
But we’re evil protectionists for a couple of little tariffs.
+1000
The world expects us to buy everything they make, and when we don’t, we’re evildoers out to destroy the world economy.
I fully expect that we’ll be lectured on doing everything possible to prop up South Africa’s economy, even if they eventually round up whites and lock them in concentration camps.
They’ll be lucky if it’s only being locked in camps. I have very serious doubts about that, hell look at Rhodesia for a preview of what’s gonna happen in SA.
Southeast Bend, OR Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As West Coast Economy Sinks Deeper Into Recession
https://www.zillow.com/southeast-bend-bend-or/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
can u guys believe cocaine kudlow is being considered to replace gary kohn?
he might foul up the woodpile…
“California, America’s Poverty Capital”
https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/01/california-poverty-capital-america/
scdave’s buying
have feds cut CA’s funds yet?
Here’s a link:
Median Home Prices: Work vs Gold
“Taken together, these data sets show that ‘work’ has been an increasingly futile way to finance a home. Meanwhile, median home prices are actually 2.3 times lower today than they were in 1970, if paid for in gold. One can also see that the current expansion in home prices has outstripped income in a way reminiscent of the 2007 housing bubble.”
‘Whereas the median family could earn enough to purchase a home in just 2.4 years of work in 1970 (assuming 100% of their income went towards the home), it took the same median family over 4.3 years to buy a home in 2016, nearly twice the time and work. The current level (as of 2016) exceeds the previous all time high of 4.2 years, set in 2005 during the peak of the housing bubble, an ominous sign.’
Here’s the chart:
http://thesoundingline.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Median-US-House-Sales-Prices-and-Median-Family-Income.jpg
Or, another way to look at it …
In 1970 the wealth embedded in a house equaled only 2.4 years of labor while in 2016 the wealth of a house expanded to a miraculous figure of 4.3 years of labor.
Why work at a job? Buy yourself a house and allow it to support you.
Buy two houses and allow the second one support your hottie girlfriend.
It used to be because of interest rates. A 2.4x house in 1970 and a 3x house in 2012 were the same PITI each month.
The real problem is that nowadays banks (and F&F) are allowing mortgages at 45-50% DTI, instead of the traditionally safe 28%. That’s the kicker. That’s 17% income that people can’t save or spend on something else.
Donk,
That’s the magic of subprime mortgages.
Charleston-area home sales slide 12 percent in February
“While still healthy, residential real estate transactions slid 12 percent in February from the same period in 2017, according to preliminary data Monday from the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors.
A dearth of housing stock and rising prices likely contributed to the slump in sales, according to a Realtors group official.”
She got her 15-minutes… WTF is up with Stormy Daniels?
She’s a weaponized ho
TV Talking Heads Confidently Predict a ‘Landslide’ Victory for Hillary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEkG9seHJco
Nice :-). But I think Trump is immune to that weapon as long as he doesn’t do something stupid and bring her to the oval office and then shake his finger at America and tell them it never happened.
From the clip:
“It might be a wake up call to those Republicans who have existed in this little thought bubble of their own that this isn’t a winning form of politics.”
How about this self-imposed bubble:
Democrats, liberals and leftists have coped with this first year of the Trump presidency in lots of ways. Some subsist on the thin gruel of political cartoon shows and online impeachment petitions. Others dwell online in the thrilling place where conspiracy is indistinguishable from truth. Others have been inspired to action, making their first run for public office, taking local action or marching in their first protest rally.
Mr. Hagerman has done the opposite of all of them.
The fact that it’s working for him — “I’m emotionally healthier than I’ve ever felt,” he said — has made him question the very value of being fed each day by the media. Why do we bother tracking faraway political developments and distant campaign speeches? What good comes of it? Why do we read all these tweets anyway?
“I had been paying attention to the news for decades,” Mr. Hagerman said. “And I never did anything with it.”
At some point last year, he decided his experiment needed a name. He considered The Embargo, but it sounded too temporary. The Boycott? It came off a little whiny.
Mr. Hagerman has created a fortress around himself. “Tiny little boats of information can be dangerous,” he said.
He decided that it would be called The Blockade.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/10/style/the-man-who-knew-too-little.html
“She’s a weaponized ho”
Back in the seventies Eastwood produced, “Play Misty For Me.” Crazy schitt about the high cost of getting some strange.
zillow has my hood at a 3.8 year break even
they are dropping predictions and revising last year
from 2.1% to 1.5% now a measly 1%
how about yours?
dont let that equity just sit there.
LOL… that really captures the times.
About 3%/year counting from 2012. But that’s a very dicey number because it’s so hard to assess comps. Lots of micro-differences between homes which could swing the price +/- $10K. Not enough inventory to smooth out those differences.
2011-12 was a sweat spot
party is over now
Newcastle, WA Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY As Seattle Area Housing Inventory Skyrockets
https://www.movoto.com/newcastle-wa/market-trends/
biggest loser
these “FEW” unit condos
wow, 4 parties fighting over every repair
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/New-Haven-CT/57963289_zpid/6155_rid/41.424193,-72.779961,41.161596,-73.219414_rect/10_zm/
High Housing Prices Signal Danger Of Reckoning To Come
The Financial Times
3/12/2018
Patrick Jenkins
“Last summer when Jay Powell was still just a member of the Federal Reserve rather than its chairman, as he is now, he gave a telling speech at the International Center on Housing Risk in Washington DC.”
““Housing is often found at the heart of financial crises,” he told his audience, stressing that alongside financial engineering and other complexities that afflicted the US market in the run-up to 2007-2008, the housing bubble was the “essential proximate cause of the crisis”.”
“But if those booms and busts have been ugly before, there is every reason to believe they may be worse this time round. The biggest test of all — the ability of central banks to unwind QE, and raise interest rates from ultra-low levels without triggering disaster — has barely begun. Such policies were probably essential mechanisms to save the world in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. However, make no mistake: they did not fix our problems. They merely postponed the reckoning — and arguably inflated a good many asset bubbles, not least in housing, along the way.”
“Total outstanding US mortgage loans are now back at nearly $15tn, the same as at the 2008 peak. In the UK, the average London house price at the end of last year was £484,500, nearly two-thirds higher than at the pre-crisis peak.”
It isn’t going to work unless they build cast iron debtor’s prisons.
He speaks with far to much clarity. Now that he is the Man Behind the Curtain he must develop his opaque market critiques aka Fedspeak.