Sold At A Discount
A report from the Orlando Sentinel in Florida. “Increased numbers of homeowners in Orlando — and most of Florida — fell behind on mortgage payments late last year, bucking national trends, according to CoreLogic. Metro Orlando’s rate of homeowners falling at least a month behind tripled in December from a year earlier. Orlando homeowners were almost twice as likely to be late on mortgage payments as homeowners nationally, according to the real estate data group. Metro Orlando’s spike in late payments was evident with a delinquency rate of 3 percent in December 2016 — rising to 9.5 percent a year later.”
“Polk County led the state with an 11.7 percent rate of delinquencies, far exceeding the national rate of 5.3 percent. The only other Florida metro areas with a worse record than Metro Orlando’s were Miami and Fort Myers.”
From Construction Dive. “Florida Developer 550 Seabreeze Development has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection amid lender claims that it has defaulted on a $36.9 million mortgage loan on the now-stalled Las Olas Ocean Resort in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, according to The Real Deal. The bankruptcy filing stopped foreclosure proceedings on the Las Olas property, where contractors have filed liens for nonpayment. Work had already stopped on the 12-story, 136-room resort.”
“Chinese nationals have invested in the Las Olas project through the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services’ (USCIS) EB-5 visa program, and their eligibility for permanent residency in this country could be at risk if it does not complete the project, sell it or give it up to foreclosure.”
From The Real Deal. “Fresh from undergoing a multi-year renovation, a 27-unit apartment building in Miami Beach’s South-of-Fifth neighborhood just sold for $14.6 million, property records show. The developer, TwoFifty Collins LLC, managed by Alessandro Renzetti, listed the property at 250 Collins Avenue for $22 million in 2016 – meaning the building sold at about a 33 percent discount off its original asking price.”
“Last May, Renzetti’s request to change the property’s designation to allow for both condominiums and short-term rental hotel use was approved by the Miami Beach Historic Preservation Board.”
From The Daily Business Review. “A law school graduate was sentenced in Miami to 22 years in prison for carrying out a multimillion-dollar fraud, federal prosecutors said Tuesday. Gerti Muho, a 2012 graduate of the University of California at Berkeley School of Law, nabbed more than $2.5 million in a scheme that involved bank, real estate, auto loan, student loan and credit card fraud, prosecutors said. He was convicted in July after a trial before U.S. District Judge Beth Bloom.”
“‘Muho is a talented, industrious and motivated individual,’ Robert Lasky, special agent in charge of the FBI’s Miami office, said in a statement. ‘Unfortunately, he chose to use these skills to illegally satisfy his greed.’”
“Muho’s fraud started after he was fired in 2013 from a Wall Street hedge fund job with Fletcher Asset Management. Prosecutors said he stole information from the company’s server and tried to siphon millions of dollars from hedge fund accounts before fleeing to South Florida. He defrauded a Monaco bank into wiring him $2 million and lied to obtain a $500,000 business loan, according to the evidence at trial. Muho spent the money on a Maserati, a Jaguar and a unit at the Marquis condo tower in downtown Miami, among other things, and evaded a court judgment by creating fake identities using Fletcher’s employee information.”
‘before fleeing to South Florida’
I guess he expected to blend in with all the other fraudsters.
‘Increased numbers of homeowners in Orlando — and most of Florida — fell behind on mortgage payments late last year, bucking national trends, according to CoreLogic. Metro Orlando’s rate of homeowners falling at least a month behind tripled in December from a year earlier…Polk County led the state with an 11.7 percent rate of delinquencies, far exceeding the national rate of 5.3 percent.’
5% is way higher than historical averages. And it’s been this way for years.
‘and most of Florida’
This was first reported a couple of months ago and the MSM has ignored it. The state is pushing 10%, greater Miami 12%. Nothing to see here.
Remember the fellow who used to post here who was a appraiser in the central Florida area? As I recall, a Florida native who grew up around the Lakeland area and had a real love for the state.
As I recall, (and this is going way back to 2006 or 2007) during the first bubble, he couldn’t get arrested for appraisal gigs on account of he refused to “hit the numbers” for the lenders and RE agents. Then, when the bubble burst, he got forensic appraisal work in Central Florida, around the Orlando area. I seem to remember him saying that he came across house after house in a number of developments that were homesteaded, but abandoned and that most of the buyers were from the UK and South America, and the owners couldn’t be found.
Well, looks like the same crew is back and up to their old tricks. And I doubt if the first wave was ever truly resolved.
The Orlando area is in a world of hurt and its residents are in a world of denial. It is also ground zero for folks from Puerto Rico who are relocating to the mainland due to having been wiped out by the back to back hurricanes.
‘Polk County led the state with an 11.7 percent rate of delinquencies…The only other Florida metro areas with a worse record than Metro Orlando’s were Miami and Fort Myers’
I checked and there aren’t any new reports from these two areas on foreclosures.
Nothing on foreclosures anywhere in the local MSM outlets. You’d think it would be a big deal, but they keep that info suppressed. The only way to know how bad it is, is to check the blue measles on Zillow. Here’s Wesley Chapel, for example:
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Wesley-Chapel-FL/fore_lt/pmf,pf_pt/house_type/21203_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/28.347144,-82.198506,28.14814,-82.460118_rect/11_zm/
Here’s Orlando. Oh, my:
https://www.zillow.com/homes/Orlando-FL_rb/
“Nothing on foreclosures anywhere in the local MSM outlets.”
Ditto for our MSM regarding Australia and Canada… the silence is deafening.
I haven’t found a reliable source for granular data on specific metro areas, but the “Mortgage Monitor” (Black Knight) provides state level detail, which if you are looking for information on major metros in a state, this is probably not a bad place to look.
Said another way, if a major metro is running into problems (Miami, Orlando, etc.), it very likely would show up in the state data. However, smaller metros probably wouldn’t move the needle on the state.
As of January 2018, the Mortgage Monitor showed the non-current rate (delinquencies and foreclosures) in Florida up FORTY PERCENT year over year (ok, 39%, but 40% is close enough).
There were three other states that showed increases year on year…Texas (12% increase), Alaska (7% increase), and North Dakota (3.5% increase). The rest showed declines in the non-current rates (delinquency + foreclosures).
Link to the report (page 20 of 21):
http://www.bkfs.com/Data/DataReports/BKFS_MM_Jan2018_Report.pdf
With foreclosure moratoriums in all 50 states it makes sense foreclosures are down.
LOL @ the Orlando foreclosure that has been on Zillow for 1107 days.
Had a local place near me pre-forclosure on Zillow forever. It finally came back on market, sold for $500K (original loan was $650K, was a townhouse end unit.)
I guess the bank waited till the market recovered.
lots of dod $ coming to N VA. I figure about 4 billion spread across N VA
Don’t forget wild card Amazon
“…As of January 2018, the Mortgage Monitor showed the non-current rate (delinquencies and foreclosures) in Florida up FORTY PERCENT year over year …”
Can’t wait to see how Lawrence Yun of the NaR is going to spin the numbers on this one.
His publicists job is easy on that one…hurricane.
Why though is TX only up 10%ish?
The hurricane thing has already been thrown out there. So why a statewide increase? And why did defaults explode in Houston before the storm? How can Miami be higher than where the storm hit? Maybe something to do with the 20 years of inventory and double digit price declines.
The ancillary question is what is different in TX and FL than the rest of the country? I haven’t seen the raw data, but my understanding is that both places built like crazy (certainly Houston, where I did see the data). And TX was hit by lower oil prices–as a factor.
BTW, Alaska and ND were also effected by oil prices.
Isn’t Floriduh one of those states where you can stop paying and would be foreclosed or evicted for years?
I seem to recall discussions on this blog some years ago with anecdotes of posters’s acquaintances bragging about not having made a payment in years?
Yes, FL is one of the judicial foreclosure states…takes a long time to get through the process there.
If you look at the Mortgage Monitor, they have an “*” next to all the states that are judicial foreclosure states.
It’s not surprise that only 5 of the lowest (best) 20 non-current rate states are judicial foreclosure states, and 13 of the higher (worst) 20 non-current rate states are judicial foreclosure states.
FL is one of those 13…as are NY and NJ, which are also notoriously slow to get through foreclosures.
Except when Florida ran the “rocket docket” to process the foreclosures. Then they shut it down to foam the runway.
Fast-Paced Foreclosures: Florida’s ‘Rocket Docket’ : NPR
https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130729666
Oct 21, 2010 - Fort Myers, Fla., has some of the nation’s busiest foreclosure courts, which have earned a nickname: “rocket docket.” Lee County courts have been hearing as many as 200 foreclosure cases each day. And judges are unapologetic about clearing the backlog.
Foreclosure ‘Rocket Docket’ to disappear July 1 - The News-Press
https://www.news-press.com/story/money/2015/05/23/…rocket-docket…/27816899/
May 23, 2015 - The ‘rocket docket,’ created to deal with a wave of foreclosures, is gone in SW Florida as of July 1.
Rocket docket - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_docket
Another notable “rocket docket” court involved Lee County, Florida (Fort Myers), home of numerous foreclosure proceedings due to the collapse of the Florida housing market as a result of the financial crisis of 2007-2008. On some days, the court heard up to 1,000 cases per day; assuming an 8-hour day, this equates to less …
‘Rocket docket’ favors banks over homeowners - Sun Sentinel
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/opinion/…/fl-editorial-rocket-docket-20140921-story.html
Sep 21, 2014 - That means that some of the money that banks paid in punishment for misdeeds now is paying for a Florida foreclosure system that overwhelmingly favors the banks. The rocket docket is successfully clearing the foreclosure backlog. But it is impossible to ignore that the Legislature and the judiciary itself …
Florida pulls plug on rocket-docket foreclosure courts - May. 25, 2011
money.cnn.com/2011/05/24/news/economy/florida_foreclosure/index.htm
May 25, 2011 - Say bye-bye to Florida’s rocket-docket foreclosure courts. Facing a major fiscal crunch, state lawmakers have opted not to renew in special funding for the court system to dig its way out from an avalanche of foreclosures. Judges are concerned that the backlog will build again, especially if the pace of …
Florida court upholds foreclosure ‘rocket docket’ system - HousingWire
https://www.housingwire.com/…/florida-court-upholds-foreclosure-rocket-docket-syste...
Jun 27, 2011 - A Florida appellate court denied a request from the American Civil Liberties Union to keep a property seizure case out of an accelerated foreclosure system, known as the “rocket docket.” If the court had ruled for the ACLU, the precedent could have paved the way for more foreclosure cases to be pulled off …
Florida may relaunch rocket docket - HousingWire
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/florida-may-relaunch-rocket-docket
Jan 4, 2013 - The so-called rocket docket bill, HB 87, resurfaced this week by Rep. Kathleen Passidomo, R-Naples, offering sped-up modifications and foreclosures.Currently, the foreclosure process takes more than…
Matt Taibbi’s Devastating Portrait of Florida’s Rocket Docket …
https://www.cnbc.com/id/40156107
Nov 12, 2010 - The latest issue of Rolling Stone is out with a devastating portrait by Matt Taibbi of the foreclosure process in Florida. If it pierces the public consciousness the way Taibbi’s articles on AIG and Goldman Sachs did, it could be a game-changer.
The Rocket Docket in Florida - Reyes Law Group
reyeslegal.com/rocket-docket-florida/
Feb 21, 2014 - Whether it’s the new foreclosure law, the reduction in the back-log of cases, or the hiring of additional help to handle the volume of cases, there can be no doubt that the Rocket Docket approach has taken hold in courtrooms across the State of Florida. Today, more than ever, the due process rights of …
A Florida Court’s ‘Rocket Docket’ Blasts Through Foreclosure Cases …
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123491755140004565
Feb 18, 2009 - To clear a huge backlog of foreclosures, Florida judges are hearing “rocket dockets” of nearly 1000 cases a day.
That was me, Colorado. A buddy of mine stayed in his house without making a mortgage payment for seven years, maybe a little more. He did have a lawyer he was paying to keep him in the house. I think he said it cost him about half his mortgage payment for a monthly retainer. That all came to an end this past spring/summer. He’s a renter now in a house about half the size.
Hell I rented 2 different houses from 2 different Deadbeats for over a combined 7 years at $1,700.00 a month.
I knew it, the Bank knew it and the Beats knew it.
I didn’t find out about the second until after we had moved in.
Looking back the funny thing was how Beat number 2 and his wife listened to us about how we had paid the dude in Jupiter for close to 5 years while he didn’t pay his mortgage and stuffed the cash in his pocket not knowing they had just done the same thing to someone else and all the while shaking their heads and saying how terrible that was.
I can just imagine it, the head shaking and tsk-tsk.
I’ll bet the deferred maintenance was a real thrill, too.
My buddy let his pool go while he stayed in the house. At least he drained and covered it. Others, not so much. Nothing says abandoned home in Florida like a hole in the ground filled with green and brown slimewater.
Housing.
Georgetown, TX Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/georgetown-tx/market-trends/
back in 2004 and 2005 our company bought a bunch of lot loans in FL and SC. Lots of them “owned” by non US residents/citizens. When the bubble burst they were nowhere to be found or stopped paying. On some of those lot loans we lost 85-90%.
In about 2011 -2012 I joked with our REO manager that maybe it was time to look at some of these lots as they were damn cheap. He said he would not take one if it was given to him. I guess they had some pretty high HOA/County club dues. Even on just a lot.
I used to cut the grass on some REO lots in a golf community set up in Flagstaff. HOA fee was 20k a year. On a lot.
That might be the ultimate white elephant:
“A white elephant is a possession which its owner cannot dispose of and whose cost, particularly that of maintenance, is out of proportion to its usefulness. In modern usage, it is an object, building project, scheme, business venture, facility, etc., considered expensive but without use or value.”
“HOA fee was 20k a year. On a lot.”
Wow… that should keep the rabble away.
Fore !!!
1.2% in my hood
Realtors are liars.
“Other data on Wednesday showed underlying producer prices increasing solidly in February amid strong gains in the cost of services such as hotel accommodation, airline fares and hospital inpatient care. Inflation is steadily rising and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates next week.”
Oh my
Pacifica, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Bay Area Layoffs Resume
https://www.movoto.com/pacifica-ca/market-trends/
“Seattle developer Lobsang Dargey reportedly took advantage of EB-5 investors intentionally by:
1. Transferring their funds to projects that the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services had not approved,
2. Guaranteeing approval of those investors’ green card applications and
3. Overinflating his finances in his investor presentations.
😁
Now for the tragic part …
“Dargey pleaded guilty in January 2017 to spending money earmarked for EB-5 investment funds on luxury gifts for his family and friends and was sentenced to four years in prison. He also paid $24 million in restitution.”
A pure waste of talent in that he got caught.
Dan would say the Chinese just have a different way of investing. Get cheated and win it back in restitution. Probably getting $15/month checks.
“Overinflating his finances in his investor presentations.”
Versus just the standard inflating?
it is super crazy.
Chinese in downtown Seattle.
Eastern European / Russian on the east side (bellevue)
Cr8er
$8,404.56 Bitcoin price
−$867.54 Since yesterday (USD)
−9.36% Since yesterday (%)
Is Bitcoin watching in 2018 the equivalent of NASDAQ watching in 2000?
Ask Donk Craterton.
Leaking…
$8,114.62 Bitcoin price
−$973.34 Since yesterday (USD)
−10.71% Since yesterday (%)
Drip, drip, drip…
$7,888.11 Bitcoin price
−$1,392.29 Since yesterday (USD)
−15% Since yesterday (%)
Bloodbath for cryptocurrencies as Bitcoin sheds 10%, now down 40% year-to-date
By Aaron Hankin
Published: Mar 14, 2018 5:28 p.m. ET
Bitcoin’s intrinsic value is zero, says Allianz strategist
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-tumbles-further-as-google-clamps-down-on-crypto-advertising-2018-03-14
“Bitcoin’s intrinsic value is zero, says Allianz strategist”
Absolutely. And by the time this whole crypto nonsense shakes out and they’re all worthless, people will be ashamed to even admit they bought it.
Gyptocurrency: they’re like pet rocks from the 70s, only you still have a rock you can use to hit yourself over the head with to confirm its intrinsic value.
That’s funny!
No, this time it’s different! Bitcoin is nothing at all like tulips, or the South Sea bubble! It’s very technological! You must be ignorant not to realize how valuable it is!
(That’s pretty much what I’ve been hearing for the last several months. Maybe this will shut them up.)
Unleashing another scam will solve the problem.
Winklevoss twins propose self-regulatory body for cryptocurrency industry
By Aaron Hankin
Published: Mar 13, 2018 1:24 p.m. ET
Winklevoss twins: Self-regulation is ‘next logical step in the maturation of this market’
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/winklevoss-twins-propose-self-regulatory-body-for-cryptocurrency-industry-2018-03-13
I’m beginning to think the actual and only reason these cryptocurrencies exist is to fleece the sheeple with scams.
Yes, that’s pretty much their purpose.
Now notice that I am not saying that block chain technology has no uses. I’m pretty sure it will be important in some way, but that has nothing to do with the ridiculous prices that people are willing to pay for something most of them have absolutely no understanding of.
Sort of like real estate!
Don’t be a noob.
Are you a noob? Here’s a lesson in cryptocurrency vocabulary
By Aaron Hankin
Published: Mar 14, 2018 3:19 p.m. ET
Navigating your way around chat rooms and social media can be tough for bitcoin beginners
MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto
By now, even casual crypto investors have acquired a general understanding of bitcoin (BTCUSD, -2.42%) and acronyms like ICO (that’s initial coin offering for the still-stumped). But just as important to understanding the enigmatic world of blockchain and cryptocurrencies are far more obscure digital assets less understood by the average noob.
Some of the frequently used terms in the parlance of crypto enthusiasts are novel, while others have been co-opted from the gaming world and traditional Wall Street trading.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-you-a-noob-heres-a-lesson-in-cryptocurrency-vocabulary-2018-03-14
As I’ve been looking at houses lately in Folsom and El Dorado Hills and meeting selling agents here and there I’m noticing that underneath the smiles there is a lot of ugliness. I don’t know if it’s always that way or if it’s the current market (which still seems decent for them at the moment). But their eyes get narrow when I tell them that I’m getting my license in a couple more weeks and will be representing myself on the buy side. I’ve gotten a couple of unsolicited barely-contained-anger lectures on noobs that don’t know what they’re getting into. And then when they realize I have a decent income outside of real estate and it’s not something I need to do that seems to make them angrier.
So I guess I’m wondering if the industry is always that way between agents or if it’s something about the current market. I hadn’t seen this in the past as a normal buyer.
Probably because in the past as a normal buyer, you weren’t getting licensed?
The RE biz has always been ugly at the residential agent level. Back in the 90s we did a lease option on a house we eventually decided not to purchase. Fortunately there wasn’t a whole lot of option money at stake. But the RE agent was constantly moaning about their commission and talking about filing complaints on other agents on past deals they’d done or not done.
Filing complaints on agents here in Florida is something that happens a lot, apparently.
“As I’ve been looking at houses lately in Folsom and El Dorado Hills and meeting selling agents here and there I’m noticing that underneath the smiles there is a lot of ugliness.”
Nuthin New here, except your noticing.
“I don’t know if it’s always that way or if it’s the current market (which still seems decent for them at the moment).”
(We are gettin’ to it …)
“But their eyes get narrow when I tell them that I’m getting my license in a couple more weeks and will be representing myself on the buy side.”
(We have gotten to it!)
“I’ve gotten a couple of unsolicited barely-contained-anger lectures on noobs that don’t know what they’re getting into.”
Of course, that’s because they want you as A CUSTOMER, not as A COMPETITOR! They already have enough competitors; What they want (and need) are more customers.
“And then when they realize I have a decent income outside of real estate and it’s not something I need to do that seems to make them angrier.”
What a surprise! They are hungry and you are not.
They are hungry and you are not.
These are agents that advertise themselves as having sold a lot of houses in the last year. I wouldn’t expect so much hunger.
From their point of view whenever the market booms a lot of newbies come out if the woodwork to share in the joy but when the market goes South these newbies vanish and leave the veterans to grind it out, hence the resentment.
Have you ever met an agent who admitted to not being successful?
Being successful, along with their smiling mug (which is plastered everywhere), is a major portion of their “brand”, as in why you should work with them.
Have you ever met an agent who admitted to not being successful?
Good point. Nobody would use them otherwise. I guess it’s just weird to get a closer look behind the veneer.
Every real estate agent I’ve ever met reminds me to some extent of Annette Benning in American Beauty. She did such a great job in that role. And that other agent character, can’t think of who played him.
“It’s my philosophy that in order to be successful, one must project an image of success, at all times.”
‘And that other agent character, can’t think of who played him’
Think his name is Shooter McGavin.
Every real estate agent I’ve ever met reminds me to some extent of Annette Benning in American Beauty.
She came off as classy (but manic) compared to what I’m seeing.
I’ve only ever worked with one residential RE broker. We chose her because the first two things she told us were:
1. She would never represent both sides of a transaction if we were the buyer; and
2. She wouldn’t be able to represent us on the buy side if she was already looking for a home in our price point for a different family.
I thought brokers who understood conflicts of interest were unicorns….beautiful in concept, but completely imaginary.
We ended up in a one-on-one negotiation for the home we purchased (in part, I believe, because we were the only buyer she was representing who could buy the home she found–off market).
Despite what appeared to be an ethical broker (shocking), it didn’t stop her from talking negatively about other brokers in the market.
Several years back when we bought our place, the market was pretty slow so I didn’t get too much friction representing myself. There were 2-3 brokers in town that flat out refused to deal though. The listing agent on the place we bought was pretty flabbergasted when I told her I rep’d myself like ‘how can this be?’
My understanding is that realtors who do most of the deals don’t like dealing with agents who do 2-5 deals a year since the 2-5 deal a year agent usually gums up the process, is a time killer, and the seasoned agent has to do extra work to get to close. Its one thing to do extra work, its another to do extra work so somebody else can get paid.
Makes sense. But that’s why the noob agents have to give half their commission to their broker for the first few deals. It’s specifically to cover that extra work. But I suppose that maybe doesn’t cover any extra work that has to be done on the other side of the transaction.
I’ve heard the real issue is that the noob agent is giving up all that money in return for patience and training from their broker when what usually happens is that they are told to go away and somebody else cranks it out for them and they never get to learn. I guess the noob actually has to get a little aggressive to actually get the training they are paying for.
‘ half their commission to their broker ‘ - above and beyond the normal broker split? Geez, if so that’s quite generous for the broker!
Yeah, that’s the price noobs pay to get into the game.
Well, you snatched that juicy 3% buyers commission from them. On a 500K house that’s a cool 15 grand.
Well, you snatched that juicy 3% buyers commission from them. On a 500K house that’s a cool 15 grand.
I wouldn’t say snatched. They are dealing with potential buyers all day that are already represented by someone else. The reptile eyes seem to come out specifically for competition, even as they try to tell you why you should work for their agency.
Housing my friends.
Harrisburg, PA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/harrisburg-pa/market-trends/
“…..looking at houses lately in Folsom and El Dorado Hills and meeting selling agents here and there…”
If you are going to “open houses”, those are rarely the listing agent. The agent is from the same firm, but often a newbie looking to find propects to represent…..as they wander in until represented.
That is why the give you the bad response…it aces them out of any part of the deal.
I always know which agent I’m talking to, I seek out the listing agents intentionally because I know nobody else wants to talk to me. Sometimes they are at the open houses and sometimes they are busy and get a buddy to cover them. But I’m surprised when even they aren’t that happy to talk to me.
OK. That is good awareness. Are you also aware the housing market may be closer to the top of the cyclethan the bottom? It is not the worst thing to buy today, but I am suggesting it may be a more favorable market for you in 2022. You may get a better economic deal and you will certainly get a better selection.
Sure, I’ve been here since 06. However I’m now married to a Chinese woman with cash burning a hole in her pocket. I’ve warned here that she is likely to lose a couple million rmb by buying now compared to a few years from now but she wants to live her life in the house she wants now. And she has the cash. So I’m looking.
I see and understand. Many people buy what they want regardless of the cycle. I also see many Chinese people have a very long view of their investmenta.
Seattle, WA 98109 Rental Rates Crater 16% YOY As Housing Correction Expands
https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa-98109/home-values/
*Select rental price from dropdown menu on last chart
The wind storms blew down a lot of the real estate signs around town. Waiting for them to sprout up again to research my clip on bubble! and overpriced! additions.
In the meantime, you all know that pop star Katie Perry had a song last year the included the housing bubble in it? It does get stuck in my head sometimes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Um7pMggPnug
3D printed homes for the developing world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvM7jFZGAec
That’s a cool thing, combo. I really like the idea, thanks for posting. I wonder how they stand up to windstorms and such.
Pigmen gonna pig:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-14/equifax-executive-charged-insider-trading
Financial self interest is still alive and well. However, I hope Jun Ying gets a chance to kiss a water moccasin and enjoy its bounty.
“Perhaps it would’ve been more careful about security if its chief information security officer had an appropriate background. Instead, the former Equifax executive had earned a degree in Fine Arts from the University of Georgia.”
Centerville, MA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/centerville-ma/market-trends/
Beware the Ides of March.
Boeing’s stock slide into correction as China trade-war fears add to Dow’s 250-point slump in afternoon trade
By Mark DeCambre
Published: Mar 14, 2018 12:37 p.m. ET
…
Some dude told me If it weren’t for all the money we get from California we would have all been dead years ago.
They saved us from ourselves and we never even thanked them.
It’s never too late. Nothing says “thank you” with the same sincerity as does the sending of money.
And, tell your friends.
Loophole would protect self-driving car companies from lawsuits
http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/14/technology/self-driving-car-senate-loophole/index.html
Well, knock me over with a feather!
They can be hacked!? Say it ain’t so, Joe!
I typically regard this as, well, fine. Hacking a self-driving car to inflict damage seems like a lot harder task than just running a car into pedestrians. And we’ve seen that movie in Europe and in the US. If someone wants to inflict mass casualty, I think guns or low tech driving into crowds of people is a lot higher on my worry list than a rogue hacker.
As for shielding manufacturers from lawsuits, I think this might be okay as well. I am still thinking about last year when a 70-year-old ran over a 50-year old in a parking lot and killed him. The elderly gentlemen got confused with the gas pedal and brake pedal and just kept on accelerating. What a tragedy for this loss of life, and what a terrible thing to have on your conscious. I’m more worried about elderly drivers than I am about self-driving. The problem with elderly drivers is that many don’t know just how bad they are until there is a spectacular catastrophe, like going the wrong way into freeway traffic. This happens all the time.
*conscience
“Hacking a self-driving car to inflict damage seems like a lot harder task than just running a car into pedestrians.”
But it’s a much more anyomous task, which makes the task more … more interesting.
Er, anonymous
I am not OK with shielding manufacturers from lawsuits. That would be a pure rent-seeking benefit for them. There are many more ways to create carnage & damage with a motor vehicle than simply driving it into a crowd of pedestrians. Think about 3000 lb drones…
When it comes to flying drones, I agree. There would have to be some serious redundancy and rigorous testing for many, many miles in extreme circumstances and effectively zero failures before giving the green light to allow those things to fly over population centers.
Imagine if a hack could cause a 10,000 car pile up on the interstate.
Back in the eighties, a short skirt caused a multi-vehicle pile-up in San Jose on Stockton Ave, just north of the SJ train station. My boss loved telling the story. The long-femur tease worked in the office next door.
If this is the case, and manufacturers won’t be liable, then why in the hell would anyone get into a self-driving car?
I thought that was the whole point of a self-driving car: that none of the occupants had to do anything.
If they are not doing anything, how are they liable? Because they breathe? Insanity.
Why? Because they won’t be allowed to drive anymore.
I understand this skepticism, I really do. I’m just looking big picture here. If there is not some cap to liability and there is a tail risk of being sued for an exorbitant sum, then that will greatly discourage the speed of adoption for self-driving vehicles.
Keep in mind that the number of US auto deaths since just 2000 is greater than all the US deaths in all wars combined since the civil war. Auto accidents are probably the single greatest preventable accident and self-driving has the possibility of being orders of magnitudes safer.
’self-driving has the possibility of being orders of magnitudes safer’
Devise a dish washer that can clean dishes without me having to wash them before I load them. Is that too much to ask? And you think we’re going to be riding around in Johnny Cabs with Arnold?
Johnny Cab: Hello I’m Johnny Cab, where can I take you tonight?
Doug Quaid: Drive, drive!
Johnny Cab: Would you please repeat the destination?
Doug Quaid: Anywhere, just go, GO!
Doug Quaid: SH#T, SH#T!
Johnny Cab: I’m not familiar with that address, would you please repeat the destination?
https://www.gonnageek.com/2013/09/the-johnny-cabs-are-coming/
Consumer reports says that most of the newer dishwashers should be able to handle cleaning dishes sans pre-rinse:
The reason is that most dishwashers costing $500 or more sold in the past five years or so have a sensor that determines how thorough a wash is needed. At the start of the cycle, it rinses the dishes and then checks how dirty the water is to determine the proper amount of time and water to get everything clean. If you’ve already rinsed off much of the muck, the sensor misreads the dishes as already fairly clean.
Of course, that’s kind of the point of the sensor cycle, and some folks, like my mom, like to get their dishes fairly clean before running the dishwasher anyway. In that case, you’re probably good to go, since your dishes don’t need much cleaning. One might ask why you’re washing them again, but hey, we’re not here to judge.
However, if you’re simply rinsing off your plates, this is something to keep in mind if you want a deeper clean. Consumer Reports recommends removing food scraps but then skipping the rinse altogether. For more detail, head to the post below.
https://lifehacker.com/why-you-should-skip-the-pre-rinse-before-loading-your-d-1782130338
I get that you’re skeptical about self-driving. Maybe it’s pie in the sky and will never happen. It seems to me though like it will. Time will tell. One of us will be right. Maybe you, maybe me.
$1,450 Samsung Dishwasher Fails Cleaning Test | Consumer Reports …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKE_nWH10bQ
Sep 5, 2014 - Uploaded by Consumer Reports
The Samsung Chef Collection dishwasher with “waterwall technology” may need a hand when it comes to …
…. and the perpetual motion machine is just beyond the horizon.
Back to housing my friend
Leesburg, VA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/leesburg-va/market-trends/
Okay, so that one doesn’t cut it. It looks like you need to check and clean the filter and then restart if your dishes are as dirty as those being tested by CR. But I’m not sure that there aren’t other dishwashers who fail this test
At 0:54:
“None of the other 100+ dishwashers in our current ratings needed a hand to complete our tough test.”
Skepticism is good. It’s the enemy of complacency. And complacency always gets you in trouble.
My guess is that they could make a dishwasher that gets dishes clean without scrubbing, but it would be very expensive and accordingly wouldn’t sell very well. Commercial dishwashers do a pretty good job, but even then food that is stuck on/dried on should be removed first.
Is the economic benefit large enough to spend the money on the perfect dishwasher? Apparently not…or we would have created one already.
The potential economic benefit for self-driving cars is HUGE, mainly because people are generally such irresponsible drivers (texting while driving, eating breakfast, putting on make-up, etc.).
Self-driving cars have the potential to both be far cheaper than the status quo, and be safer/better–and so huge amounts of capital will pour into it for a long time.
Perhaps it will be the forever out-of-reach boondoggle…a developing technology where the reality never matches the promise. It can go on the mental shelf right next to cold fusion.
That is certainly a possibility that cannot be discounted. If you don’t believe in the boondoggle potential, I suggest you drive right after 8 inches of snow falls, and ask yourself how a self driving car would do in those conditions, when everyone admits that they need precise maps of the roads.
That said, the major automakers certainly don’t think it’s so far fetched that they are ignoring it…if they did, there wouldn’t be so many of them investing billions of dollars on the effort…they simply don’t have money to burn.
I think that we’ll end up with self-driving cars, but they won’t be everywhere for all conditions for quite some time–and that will make the self-driving dream far less practical in reality–at least for the next couple of decades.
We’ve never had a dishwasher that can clean anything you throw in it. Cheese is a toughie, especially on forks. What we do it soak the stuff in the sink then scrub the nasties off before loading the dishwasher. Some stuff doesn’t require a rinse, but we do it anyway for good measure.
The biggest problem with dishwashers is that they don’t wash dishes the way humans do. Plus there is the issue of items being dishwasher safe. Commercial dishwashers don’t have to deal with tupperware or anything made of plastic, so they are better at getting the stuff off, but home washers must be more gentle, hence they’re less effective.
With self driving cars, it boils down to sensors and algorithms. If either fail, what kind of fail safes are there to bring the car to a safe stop? And just how good are those fail safes?
As I’ve mentioned before, operating systems such as Linux and the various flavors of UNIX have been around for decades, and they are still chock full of bugs and on occasion they still have panics (AKA the blue screen of death). My point being that is that it’s REALLY HARD to write bug free code. And if there are hardware failures, and yes they do happen, what then?
For instance, automatic transmissions have a fail safe in case the computer that controls it fails: it goes into 3rd gear. If the computer driving the car goes into the weeds, what is the fail safe? Will there be redundant systems like on fly by wire airliners? That could get expensive. Will there be substantial “pre flight” diagnostics that could take several minutes to perform? Hope you’re not in a hurry to get to your destination.
‘People riding in self-driving cars that crash could find themselves unable to hold the manufacturer accountable’
A clear sign the problem is liability. OK, so when a school bus gets T-boned, then what? Law changed.
‘In late July, Torc Robotics’ Lexus RX hybrid completed an autonomous drive of more than 4,300 miles from Virginia to Seattle and then back to Richmond, where it was greeted upon its arrival by Gov. Terry McAuliffe.’
“I am proud to see a home-grown engineering firm develop self-driving technology and introduce it to the rest of the country on a coast-to-coast drive,” McAuliffe said. “This technology is coming, and we want to be in front of it here in Virginia.”
You first Terry.
‘GreenTech, the electric car company once led by McAuliffe, files for bankruptcy’
‘More recently, however, the company has faced a series of lawsuits filed by investors in the company, who have called GreenTech a “scam perpetrated by savvy and politically connected operatives and businessmen” to exploit Chinese immigrants hoping to come to America.’
‘The bankruptcy filing cites a $7.5 million judgment won by 12 investors and says other suits are pending. According to its bankruptcy filing, GreenTech raised $141.5 million from investors between 2009 and 2013 as part of the EB-5 visa program, which offered immigrant investors permanent residency.’
‘GreenTech’s filing says all the investors were advised that the investment constituted a risk and that there were no assurances that they would receive permanent residency in the U.S.’
Why? Because they won’t be allowed to drive anymore.
My uncle has a country place, no one knows about.
They said it used to be a farm, before the “motor law”.
Housing my good friends….. Housing.
Kensington, MD Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/kensington-md/market-trends/
Saw this bumper sticker on a car during my run this morning:
“What doesn’t kill you makes you smaller.” - Mario
“Muho’s fraud started after he was fired in 2013 from a Wall Street hedge fund job with Fletcher Asset Management.”
The funny thing is the firm he was fired from was also a bunch of fraudsters. That firm is always on the brink of implosion from all the shenanigans, but somehow still putters along. Would make a good movie, I think.
A Worrying Shift for Pensions: Retirees Will Soon Outnumber Kids
Bloomberg
Romy Varghese
March 14, 2018
“For those worried about the ability of U.S. state and local governments to cover promised pension checks, the Census Bureau announced a milestone that should add to their fears: by 2030, for the first time, senior citizens will outnumber children.”
“In 12 years, about one in five Americans will be of retirement age, and by 2035, those 65 and older will outnumber those under 18 by about 2 million, according to the latest estimates released by the agency. The consequences are wide-ranging, from the solvency of Social Security to increased health-care costs for an aging population.”
“After the recession, American governments laid off workers and cut back on hiring, leaving fewer paying in as the number of retirees grows. The ratio of active workers to those receiving benefits has dropped to 1.42 from 2.43 in 2002, according to a survey of the largest public pensions conducted by the National Association of State Retirement Administrators.”
I am expecting some combination of reduced life expectancy and reduced payments to the average elderly person compared to current levels (in real, inflation adjusted, terms) will restore balance to the situation.
You are probably right.
Not a chance.
Pension systems dramatically are overstating the returns they can achieve and even so are generally underfunded by 20% or more.
The reductions in life expectancy have generally been driven by the opioids, which I suspect will ultimately be solved. Even with that, the reductions in life expectancy have been relatively small.
The solution will be higher taxes primarily, with reduced payments in some places pitching into the effort.
The solution will be higher taxes primarily
Another sci-fi/horror fantasy might be targeted assassinations of high pension recipients.
A return to interest rate normalcy would go far towards trimming pension liabilities. Of course, assets might also get considerably trimmed in the process.
The reductions in life expectancy have generally been driven by the opioids
Not just opioids. Suicides, alcoholism, and opioids seem to be the main drivers. Deaths of despair is what they are being called.
Given the fatocalypse the reduced life expectancy is quite probable.
Judging by the regular reports about all the people who have little or no retirement savings, in the future there won’t be many people retiring at 65!
“Comment by drumminj
2018-03-13 19:12:21
Gotta love it. My former LL is trying the “it fell through escrow..let me try raising the price and see if that draws ‘em in” approach:
2/22/18: Listed for sale at $1.65m
2/26/18: Pending Sale
2/26/18: Back on market
3/10/18: Price change to $1.7m
Now would be an awesome time for the market to crash….
Reply to this comment
Comment by drumminj
2018-03-13 20:06:19
(this is East side of Seattle, BTW)
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-03-14 00:23:15
What was the rent on the place?
Comment by drumminj
2018-03-14 07:16:06
$3600, if I remember correctly.
Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-03-14 09:41:44
So a back of the envelope calculation from an investor’s standpoint puts the fair market value, based upon rent, at $360,000. The real estate crash here is going to be epic.”
replied in the other thread..they bought the house for $950k back in April 2006, too. No improvements…
Insanity back then, even moreso now (though I suspect the selling price will be quite a bit below where it’s listed). The rent only covers 30% of the mortgage.
East side (Bellevue, Redmond) is crazy.
Kenmore, WA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Underwater Seattle Homeowners Default
https://www.movoto.com/kenmore-wa/market-trends/
Neighbors sold their house - had it sold before it went up on the market. Bought in 97 for $149K and they sold for $245k. What surprised me is - Chinese investors. They are going to rent it out. They had two offers on the house - Chinese $245K all cash? and another for $260K but it was a FHA loan. Sold to the Chinese because it was quicker - no hassel or wait - so I assume it was cash. This is in SW Ohio, about 1/2hr north of Cincinnati.
Chinese people are cracking me up with this “rent-from-far-away-and-who-cares-what-happens-because-the-real-money-is-in-the-appreciation” mindset. What a disaster that’s going to be when the depreciation doesn’t happen and then they actually fly out to look at the house.
What a disaster that’s going to be when the depreciation doesn’t happen and then they actually fly out to look at the house.
Oh, the depreciation is going to happen all right.
I think he meant “appreciation” ……and it may not happen….
Oops…yeah.
I was riding in a car with a young Chinese business man yesterday in Jiangyin, Wuxi, Jiangsu. He has a 2 month old son. We were out in a suburban area and drove past a brand new townhouse style project.
His MIL just bought a 2,600 SF end unit (excluding a 1200 SF basement) for $315,000. It also had additional room in the attic, and a two car garage. She paid cash.
Here is the strange part: it was purchased for the two month old son to live in when he gets married!
Yes, I asked all the same questions you probably have now….like WTF….rent it (no), use it (no, mothballed), why (MIL thought it was a good deal), when will the kid likely use it (25-30 years)….etc., etc., etc…..
My travels in China these last few months lead me to.believe the Chinese look.at housing in fundamentally different ways than we do in the US. They view it as more than shelter, it is security, an appreciating asset, and a status.
If you want to understand more, read here:
https://www.quora.com/Why-do-most-Chinese-people-have-houses-even-though-house-prices-are-so-high-in-China
Chins is Fascinating!
Sure, all those things. But I don’t think they were insane about it until the city houses appreciated so much in the last 20 years. Now they think it can’t go down and it’s the only way to get ahead.
But on a side note, you’re close enough to Shanghai that I’m surprised it was that cheap if it’s in decent shape.
It was 200 kilometers or so outside Shanghai, and in a more suburban area……but your comment is appropriate, because the MIL felt the same way….which is why she bought it. It was brand new….so it was in great shape.
Your comment about the market insanity is true, especially when you consider the Chinese were not allowed to own a house until 1990! They know NOTHING EXCEPT APPRECIATION! They have never been in a falling market.
They know NOTHING EXCEPT APPRECIATION! They have never been in a falling market.
Yup. That’s why my wife is skeptical when I tell her she’s going to lose money buying in California right now. At least I talked her out of San Jose so we’re talking about part of her money instead of most of her money.
Yeah, and most of them have never seen a true real estate correction in the Bay Area, either, since the RE market quickly bounced back after 2001 and 2007 - “it’ll always bounce back”
At this point *I* believe it will always bounce back until it can’t be manipulated any more. They’ve bet the farm at this point that they can keep it going until it’s somebody else’s problem.
US housing my friends.
Lunenburg, MA Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/lunenburg-ma/market-trends/
Dem operatives fume after Hillary disses Trump voters
By Bob Fredericks March 14, 2018 | 12:33pm | Updated
“I win the coast. I win, you know, Illinois and Minnesota, places like that.”
Trump’s campaign “was looking backwards,” she added, before dissing Trump supporters as a bunch of racist Cro-Magnons.
“You didn’t like black people getting rights, you don’t like women, you know, getting jobs. You don’t want, you know, see that Indian-American succeeding more than you are. Whatever your problem is, I’m going to solve it,” said Clinton, describing her version of Trump’s “MAGA” message.
She also said that women who voted for Trump were too dumb to make up their own minds, and had been brainwashed by “ongoing pressure to vote the way that your husband, your boss, your son, whoever, believes you should.”
Weary Democrats said they had had enough, and that her clueless comments were reminiscent of her description in the campaign of many Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables,” a slur that cemented her image as an out-of-touch Beltway elitist.
https://nypost.com/tag/hillary-clinton/
She also said that women who voted for Trump were too dumb to make up their own minds, and had been brainwashed by “ongoing pressure to vote the way that your husband, your boss, your son, whoever, believes you should.”
And this is why people like my mom, the senior accountant at our company, and a JD/MBA/CPA that we work with (all women), really don’t like Mrs. Clinton.
Her disdain for people with different opinions about what is important in life, and the role of government is offensive.
I don’t really care what Hillary Clinton thinks of me or my associates. I don’t even find it offensive, it just is what it is.
Her disdain for people with different opinions about what is important in life, and the role of government is offensive.
It’s interesting that some people are so bothered by it (I am) and other people don’t even notice it. Humans are interesting in their differences.
‘an out-of-touch Beltway elitist’
Ah-ha! Not elite, but elitist. We’re finally back to the term being derogatory.
I am so thankful every single day that this woman did not win the election. What an awful, hideous human being she truly is. Just a miserable old crank.
As my wife said during the election: “It’s a shame that this particular woman might be our first female president.”
And she’s an attorney who certainly thinks for herself, raised by a Rachel Maddow-watching retired teacher.
I’m slowly turning her away from the left…but it’ll take a while. I get some movement every April 15th.
“The founder of a US start-up that promised to revolutionise blood testing has agreed to settle charges that she raised over $700m (£500m) fraudulently.”
You pukes should keep in mind that the “M”, as it is used here means, millions. 700 million dollars. Moving on …
“The Securities and Exchange Commission, a top US financial regulator, said Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos deceived investors about the firm’s technology.The agency also said the firm had falsely claimed its products had been used by theUS army in Afghanistan.”
Seven-hundred million dollars worth of lies.
Now, for the punch line (every joke has a punch line) …
“Ms Holmes will lose control of the firm and be fined $500,000.”
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
(Some jokes, such as this one, have two punch lines) …
“An SEC official called the fallout an “important lesson for Silicon Valley”.
I’ll say. Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43406050
I doubt she could even raise the money for the 500K fine.
Why isn’t this beeyotch in jail? We need to start treating this high-end thievery like we do low-end thievery.
“We call it ma$ter and $ervant…let$ play ma$ter and $ervant”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsvfofcIE1Q
“Chinese nationals have invested in the Las Olas project through the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services’ (USCIS) EB-5 visa program, and their eligibility for permanent residency in this country could be at risk if it does not complete the project, sell it or give it up to foreclosure.”
What a scam that EB-5 visa program is. I just recently saw some woman lawyer with an Eastern European accent advertising her immigration law services on the local newz, which comes out of Orlando.
I’ve been hearing about saltwater intrusion into the Biscayne Aquifer in South Florida. This is another dirty little secret you won’t hear much about in the local MSM, but apparently it is happening. That should really do wonders for the housing market in Miami.
Between that and the release of waste water from the sugar cane fields, the southeastern half of the state is going to have to figure out how to mitigate the damage.
Few things can ruin your day faster that having a dry water tap.
As ppl in Cape Town may soon find out!!
Build more desalination plants. You’ve got an inexhaustible body of water sitting right next to you.
Match those desalination plants with nuclear power plants farther inland, and you’ve got your solution forever.
Well, what say you? Is McCabe going down?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-14/andrew-mccabe-be-fired-days-ahead-retirement-nyt
Now, before you get too excited about this dipwad losing his pension, an enterprising commenter at ZH posted this:
http://askthelawyer.federaltimes.com/2015/03/17/resign-retire-or-be-fired/
“There are a few statutory exceptions such that being fired under this limited circumstance will indeed cause you to lose your retirement eligibility. Those exceptions are for an employee convicted of a crime against the national security of the United States. The crimes are enumerated at 5 USC section 8312. Here’s a smattering of the crimes enumerated: gathering or delivering defense information to aid a foreign government; harboring or concealing the enemy; disclosure of classified information; espionage; sabotage against the U.S.; treason, rebellion or insurrection; seditious conspiracy; advocating the overthrow of the U.S. government; activities to harm the U.S. armed forces during war.
Let me repeat: For a termination to affect your retirement annuity, you must be convicted of one of those crimes.”
So yeah, maybe he’ll get fired, but it doesn’t mean doo to a tree unless he’s indicted and convicted of one of the above crimes. Don’t hold yer breath.
Why Democrats Would Lose the Second Civil War, Too:
“The Democrat threat to peace is based on its policies designed to deprive Normal Americans of their right to speak freely, to worship freely, and to defend themselves and their rights with firearms. Make no mistake – millions of Normal Americans are willing to risk death to defend those rights. In fact, many swore to do so when they entered our military and law enforcement. But who is the leftist big talker willing to die to impose the fascist dream of censorship, religious oppression, and disarmament on Normal American citizens? Is the screeching SJW at Yale going to suit up in Kevlar? Is the Vox columnist going to grab a M4? Is the Hollywood poser going to switch her gyno-beanie for a helmet?
No. Hell, we just heard our liberal opponents explaining why a cop shouldn’t be expected to go fight a scumbag murdering kids because it’s scary. America might split apart, but it’s highly unlikely Team Kale n’ Vinyl would fight should their big talk finally push Normal America too far.”
https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2018/03/12/why-democrats-would-lose-the-second-civil-war-too-n2459833
Ben Jones, AntiFa is a criminal terrorist organization. And today, in 2018, AntiFa is the Democrat Party. The Japanese Imperial Army did not try to invade the United States during World War II because they believed there was a “rifle behind every blade of grass.” AntiFa, are you listening, do you understand this? Go smear some more avocado on your toast, and get back to me when you think you can actually win this.
Because you can’t.
FAIL.
But who is the leftist big talker willing to die to impose the fascist dream of censorship, religious oppression, and disarmament on Normal American citizens? Is the screeching SJW at Yale going to suit up in Kevlar? Is the Vox columnist going to grab a M4? Is the Hollywood poser going to switch her gyno-beanie for a helmet?
No. But I believe that as the famous quote goes, you really can pay one half of the people to kill the other half. I’m not afraid of the people listed above. But I am afraid of the combat vet whose only hope for a steady paycheck is to work for them.
The USA has already had 2 Civil Wars. The first one was its revolution: the losing side (also born for the most part in the rebellious colonies) was either killed off, or despoiled of their property & deported/banished/exiled. That ended about 1783. Its second civil war ended pro forma in 1865.
We do seem to be on the verge of Civil War 3.
Housing is going down again, so soon after the advent of the Bernanke reflation program. Guess it was temporary, not permanent.
Why every investor should be terrified by Home Depot’s slide
By Jeff Reeves
Published: Mar 14, 2018 12:39 p.m. ET
Despite record consumer spending and the theoretical boost of a tax cut, the entire housing market has seem to have hit a wall
…
Their lagging retail sales doesn’t surprise me. We can’t find a decent quality outdoor light with a motion detector, nothing but junk that’s good for two possibly three years.
Notice how housing recently “hit a wall” even though the Fed has just barely started normalizing rates? Should get quite interesting if they ever get around to seriously removing the punchbowl. Of course this would leave the self-styled entitlement class of homeowners feeling discriminated against and victimized, as they watched their recent home equity gains go up in smoke.
This is something I ran across on the net that some of you pukes might find useful …
How to Disagree
http://www.paulgraham.com/disagree.html
I lost interest in debating when I learned that even the best refutation can turn out to be completely wrong.
Mr. Banker, that is a mighty fine link you sent. I suppose my comment is somewhat weak though since I am effectively agreeing with the content of your post.
no refi action
how will home owners shop/buy anything?
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c1476347-d702-331c-92f7-85e4c0424372/refinancings-haven%E2%80%99t-been-so.html
Interesting that is the case despite their being all-time high equity amounts, and still relatively low rates.
Perhaps people will spend money that they’ve saved, rather than spend money that they’ve borrowed. Shocking.
“All that optimism for hot first-quarter economic growth is rapidly fading away.”
Oh? And why is that?
“Back in late January the Atlanta Fed was calling for a 5.4 percent GDP gain, but on Wednesday it said growth likely will be just 1.9 percent.”
Wow! That is quite a change! It doesn’t seem that those guys at the helm have it together, does it? (I was told that these guys like to use decimal points in their forecasts so as to demonstrate to the world that they have a sense of humor.)
“The cut comes amid similar reductions from J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs, who now respectively see growth at 2 percent and 1.8 percent.”
It seems to me that all of these economist-type pukes inhabit the same bubble.
“Wednesday’s disappointing retail sales number was at the root of the latest reductions.”
No doubt this is all due to the weather or the Super Bow outcomel or Climate Change or some other mystery. Whatever.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/14/all-that-optimism-for-hot-first-quarter-economic-growth-is-rapidly-fading-away.html
“Cold snap could trigger gas supply emergency in UK if Putin orders Russian gas giants turn off taps due to spy scandal.”
Not to worry, renewables will take up the slack.
Oh, wait! “A shocking report reveals Russia could be the only option to help Europe deal with the big freeze with a chill on the way next week.”
But … but … but carbon dioxide! The children! Children are not going to know what snow is!
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5814448/cold-weather-russian-gas-companies-europe-britain-heating/
In the UK? Let ‘er rip.
We don’t have a Russia problem. We do have a serious Brit problem and have had ever since before WW1. SOBs. Brits have been intriguing against the US for decades, probably even for a couple of centuries, dragging us into their wars and conflicts, meddling in our politics while pretending to be allies. And now they want the US to go to war with Russia.
Heck, it wouldn’t surprise me to find out that the UK and Russia were together on this Trump-Russia caper. You think Putin’s gonna cut off the UK’s supply of juice? Like hell he is.
And just as an aside, why is that oily fark David Cameron addressing members of Congress, hmmm? Why is Sadiq Kahn in Austin at that festival telling hipsters how to think, hmm? Fark Britain. Expel their diplomats, cut ‘em off.
“There’s no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen. At a bare minimum, we are looking at Goldilocks 2.0. (And that’s a minimum). Goldilocks is alive and well. The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come. Yes, it’s still the greatest story never told.”
~ Larry , December, 2007
Every administration needs a “Baghdad Bob” on the payroll.
For those who forgot, the Great Recession began in December 2007, at least according to those officially in charge of dating these episodes.