Why Does Everyone Become Greedy At The Same Time?
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “U.S. new-home construction cooled by more than expected in February on a reversal in the volatile multifamily category, while building remained on pace to contribute to economic growth this quarter, government figures showed. The report indicated a tight supply of homes is getting an influx: The number of housing units completed rose to a 1.32 million annualized rate, the highest in 10 years. Single-family home starts rose to a 902,000 rate, highest in three months, from 877,000.”
“Home sellers across the US find themselves fraught with anxiety, with their expectations unmet, according to data on the seller experience compiled by Zillow. The findings run contrary to the many stories about bidding wars in larger metropolitan areas which have resulted in the impression that sellers simply list their homes and receive stacks of offers above the asking price.”
“Almost a third of sellers said they were unsatisfied with the selling process. Among those who were selling a home for the first time, about 30% said they were unprepared for how long it took to sell their homes. Those respondents also said that they wished they had started with the selling process earlier. Additionally, the analysis found that 76% of sellers found themselves making at least one concession to close a sale. The most common compromise was lowering the price. Meanwhile, 36% of the respondents found difficulty in selling their homes within their expected price range or time frame.”
“‘Despite low inventory in many parts of the country, sellers still encounter massive pain points when trying to sell their homes,’ Zillow Group Chief Marketing Officer Jeremy Wacksman said.”
“From a penthouse apartment in the Hub, a new 610-foot rental tower in Downtown Brooklyn that is — for now — the borough’s tallest, its developer groused about timing. ‘Not early enough,’ said Doug Steiner on a recent tour, lamenting his firm’s belated decision to add a rooftop lounge that is still under construction.”
“Uncertainty hangs over the roughly 28,400 rental units expected to be built in Brooklyn over the next several years — about a thousand more than all the units built in the past decade, according to Nancy Packes Data Services, a real estate consultancy. Faced with falling prices, developers are offering concessions like a month or more of free rent, discounted broker fees and even free parking for a record share of apartments.”
“‘Developers want to maintain their listing prices, and then futz with the numbers behind the scenes,’ said Paul Johansen, an associate broker with CORE Real Estate. ‘A couple years ago, there were no concessions whatsoever.’ That hasn’t deterred builders from moving forward with thousands of new units, most of them geared toward the luxury market.”
“London house prices are falling at the fastest pace since the depths of the recession almost a decade ago, with the capital’s most expensive areas seeing the biggest declines. Offers for homes are often more than 10 per cent below asking prices, James Gubbins, a partner at Dauntons in Pimlico, said in the poll. London’s highest-priced boroughs were the biggest losers over the past year, while the largest single drop was recorded in Wandsworth, down almost 15 per cent. The borough has seen a sharp surge in the number of expensive apartments being built there that Londoners don’t want or can’t afford.”
“Media coverage of the slowdown, including headlines about falling house prices, is making consumers nervous and holding back demand. New buyers registering with real estate agents fell for an 11th month in February, RICS said.”
“Sweden’s government wants to add supply to a housing market that’s just gone through its biggest price slump in a decade. Swedish housing prices have slumped almost 10 per cent from their peak in the summer, and international investors are starting to wonder whether the market can avoid a hard landing. The correction followed tougher mortgage rules and a decline in household sentiment, which coincided with a sudden surge in construction. Housing starts reached about 65,000 last year, more than three times the annual average since the mid-1990s, according to the Swedish central bank.”
“Four months after rejecting a broker’s advice to slash his rent demands on a new Spanish-style villa in Dubai, the homeowner was ready to accept a 20 percent cut on the still vacant property. The broker, Akbar Ladak, wasn’t surprised. More landlords are accepting that they have to lower their sights. Optimism about a recovery in 2017 has given way to quiet resignation that the slump may persist. And then there is the constantly growing supply in a city that can keep expanding into the desert. Despite attempts by developers to delay the completion of properties, the pipeline of sold apartments and villas outpaces current demand.”
“‘After a bad 2016, the hope was that the economic situation would get better,’ said Sanyalak Manibhandu, an Abu Dhabi-based equities analyst. Earnings for the city’s developers reflected the challenges and ‘they all missed estimates,’ said Manibhandu. ‘That’s because analysts were too optimistic or because the situation got worse in the latter part of the year.’”
“Al-Emran Real Estate CEO Sulaiman Al-Emran said prices of real estate started to decline when the Ministry of Housing announced several housing projects in various parts of the country. ‘The prices of land fell while the cost of owning houses rose. Investors saw that the ministry was extending assistance to Saudis to own houses, so they decided to invest in houses instead of land, thus creating an oversupply. The demand for land decreased sharply as did the demand for rental residential units,’ Al-Emran told Makkah newspaper.”
“‘A lot of investors in apartment buildings have lost money as there has been a higher demand on houses,’ Al-Khayalah Real Estate Office owner Thamer Al-Qurashi said.”
“From Utako to Jabi districts of Abuja, and Ikoyi, Lekki –Epe axis of Lagos State, abandoned real estate projects dot the landscape. Justifying reasons for abandonment of projects, First Vice President, Nigerian Institute of Building, Mr. Kunle Awobodu said: ‘It is a country of cash and carry; you don’t get mortgage support to have access to housing. You need cash to do your own project and many individuals’ projects have been suspended. People are out of jobs, many are yet to secure new employments, some companies are closed to business and there is low demand for building products.’”
“A mass apartment fire sale could be set to swamp Brisbane in the next 12 months. The inner city housing market is in the grip of an apartment glut thanks to a ‘record boom’ in high-density dwelling construction, according to economic forecaster BIS Oxford Economics. Some developers have already slashed the prices of apartments in their projects to attract buyers and get rid of remaining stock. Last year, some units in the The Hudson on the former Albion Flour Mill site were discounted by up to 25 per cent.”
“Managing director Robert Mellor said developers had since reported a notable drop-off in demand from local and foreign investors, with Queensland ‘taking a bit hit.’”
“Reed Property Group is offering the 20 remaining apartments in its Belise project in Brisbane’s Bowen Hills on a deferred settlement basis to help investors trying to navigate the difficult financial environment, according to Richard Ash, non-executive director for Reed Property Group. Regulator-mandated credit curbs for investors, and an oversupply of new units in the Brisbane CBD and inner suburbs, have softened prices and sent vacancy rates soaring.”
“‘The world has changed. There is no doubt the availability of debt for home owner-occupiers and investors has changed,’ Ash said.”
“Property demand and prices in London are languishing. The great rebalancing of our nation is taking effect. But the problem is that house prices are dangerous by nature. A drop in London values could trigger a crash nationally. Thanks to the vast amount of leverage you need to buy a home, falling house prices represent a huge amount of risk for the banking sector too.”
“But the real risk is in house price expectations. If everyone expects house prices to rise, that changes the calculations for affordability. For the buyer and the lender. When house prices rise, the borrower who can’t afford their mortgage can simply sell their home. The profit makes them wealthier. It feels risk free to own property. You just need to get on that ladder somehow. It’s more of an escalator to wealth.”
“But all this can change. What happens when people stop believing house prices inherently go up? They don’t even have to go down, just stop going up. Suddenly, the entire premise of borrowing, owning property, and lending falls apart. Borrowers no longer demand unaffordable debt because it no longer enriches them. And lenders’ collateral values no longer inherently safeguard a loan. Suddenly, the lending decision is about default risk instead of collateral risk. Far fewer people can borrow in that environment.”
“Under those circumstances, the lending business becomes a matter of risk management instead of simple lending volume. Banks stop fighting for market share and start panicking over their default rates. Without the presumption of rising house prices, the demand and supply of mortgages are not artificially influenced in a way that justifies widespread lending and buying. The incentives to buy property and lend against it disappear.”
“The demand for property and supply of credit contract. Meanwhile, people who do own property want out. You get a crash that puts the rest of the economy and the banking sector at risk.”
“Some would argue it’s all about animal spirits and bubble psychology. But that’s inadequate. There must be a reason for an asset bubble like a housing bubble to form and continue in the first place. Something must change for animal spirits to suddenly take hold in the direction of greed over fear. And then continue on beyond the market factors that would reign it in. Why does everyone suddenly become more greedy at the same time? Given the nature of the mortgage industry, a culprit is not hard to find.”
“In economics, if a price is set above or below the equilibrium of supply and demand by a government agency, you get a surplus or shortage of that good. If the central bank sets interest rates below the market equilibrium interest rate set by savings and borrowings, it creates artificial demand for debt. In this way, the central bank triggers and finances a mortgage borrowing bubble and thereby housing bubble. It increases demand by lowering the price and then increases supply by injecting loanable funds to meet that demand.”
“This artificial support to demand for property is what begins a bubble. And the bubble usually forms in property because this is the most interest rate sensitive asset. Animal spirits may indeed kick in. But in a free market the demand for more funds would increase their price — interest rates — and this would prick the bubble. But in a market run by a central bank, the price does not fluctuate according to supply and demand. They are set by the central bank.”
“But what happens to the belief that house prices could fall? Usually greed is kept in check by fear. Central bankers have this covered too. Former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke was famously asked in 2005 what would happen if house prices across the US fall. He refused to answer the question: ‘Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise.’ It had never happened before, Bernanke told lawmakers, so it would never happen.”
Rancho Cordova, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Opiod Related Crime Ravages Sacramento Area
https://www.zillow.com/rancho-cordova-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
My niece took up for a while with a Sacramento area drug dealer. Apparently the guy kept $100k’s of cash lying around. The relationship ended badly.
What a heartwarming story for the family. Yikes.
“The relationship ended badly.”
Hopefully there were no kids involved.
Your link says the market is “hot” and prices are going up. Are you on opiates?
ruh roh…..
Housing Starts Declined 7.0% in February
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 3/16/2018
Housing starts declined 7.0% in February to a 1.236 million annual rate, lagging the consensus expected 1.290 million. Starts are down 4.0% versus a year ago.
The drop in starts in February was entirely due to multi-unit starts. Single-family starts rose in February. In the past year, single-family starts are up 2.9% while multi-unit starts are down 18.7%.
Starts in February fell in the West, South, and Northeast, but rose in the Midwest.
New building permits fell 5.7% in February to a 1.298 million annual rate, below the consensus expected 1.320 million. Compared to a year ago, permits for single-family units are up 4.6% while permits for multi-family homes are up 10.6%.
Funny…I would see “ruh roh” as starts spiking higher.
Given all the news about multi family units being over built, slowing construction is a good sign. The market will absorb the vacant units and they can build some more again in 5 years.
With 25 million excess empty and defaulted housing units out there, it’s not a bad idea.
Realtors are liars.
And every closing a slime scene.
Keep our beloved Mountain climbing Housing Dog away from United Airlines.
‘China’s steel mills, a target of U.S. President Donald Trump’s ire, are their industry’s 800-pound gorilla: They supply half of world output, so every move they make has a global impact. The steel industry swelled over the past decade to support a history-making Chinese construction boom. Once that tailed off, the country was left with a glut of half-idle, money-losing mills.’
‘Beijing has closed mills and eliminated 1 million jobs but is moving too slowly to defuse American and European anger at a flood of low-cost exports that is double the volume of second-place Japan. Trump responded last week with a blanket tariff hike on steel and aluminum, another metal China’s trading partners complain it oversupplies.’
‘In the past two decades, production took off as Chinese cities were bulldozed and rebuilt with thousands of new office and apartment towers, shopping malls, bridges and expressways. Output rose from under 130 million tons in 2000 to more than 600 million in 2010.’
‘China’s voracious appetite for iron ore helped to drive economic booms in Australia, Brazil and other supplier countries. Mills bought Western and Japanese smelter technology. Steel and aluminum, along with coal, glass and solar panels, are among many Chinese industries that mushroomed until supply vastly outstripped demand.’
‘Once the building boom cooled, suppliers left with vast stockpiles of unsold goods resorted to price-cutting wars that threatened many with bankruptcy.’
Their steel is terrible. I’m not sure what the Chinese produce that’s of high quality.
China can produce any quality desired. It’s up to the folks writing the specifications and QAQC to keep a sharp eye.
It doesn’t matter what specs are when their steel smelting plants are not up to par. Their steel cracks and breaks.
“China can produce any quality desired. It’s up to the folks writing the specifications and QAQC to keep a sharp eye.”
Precisely. That’s why mill certs arrive with every trailer of reinforcing…(or structural shapes)
‘The report indicated a tight supply of homes is getting an influx: The number of housing units completed rose to a 1.32 million annualized rate, the highest in 10 years. Single-family home starts rose to a 902,000 rate’
But, worker shortage. Lack of lots. Nancy Pelosi!
Los Angeles has a really bad homeless problem:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/mar/16/us-homelessness-crisis-los-angeles-politicians
Might I add that the OC (Orange County) has similar issues.
Not as bad as I have seen in LA (at least so far) but definitely trailing not far behind.
Seems not widely reported as compared to LA. (Presume the MSM doesn’t want to upset their hipster subscriber base and the Real Estate Industrial Complex on whom they depend for advertising.
Have been in Irvine for 39+ years.
Problem was non-existent for the 1st 25 years.
Yup - I grew up in Irvine in the 80s and 90s. Even in to the 2000s when I lived for spurts in Santa Ana and San Clemente it wasn’t a major problem.
The fact it’s invaded Orange County is just astounding.
I think today is the end of the 30 days the Santa Ana River transients get kicked out of their County paid for motel rooms.
Oh boy.
FWIW, most American probably don’t know or care about the difference between LA and OC. To us it’s all beach and Disneyland and movie stars. For all we know, LA is *in* OC. The LA Times might distinguish but that’s about it.
To be fair, few people distinguish between DC and Fairfax County. To everyone outside the DC area, it’s all Air & Space and corrupt politicians. So there it is.
Hey, it’s warm in L.A. If one is to become homeless it’s best to do it in L.A.
I ran across this …
HOMELESS ON PURPOSE
(snip)
Q. What areas have the most travelers?
A. The Southeast and the West Coast.
Q. Is that because of the weather?
A. The weather, and it’s beautiful. You get up into the Midwest, and it’s just kind of flat.
https://psmag.com/social-justice/crusties-gutter-punks-travelers-whatever-dont-call-homeless-89243
“Los Angeles has a really bad homeless problem:”
Kudos to Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.
And Jerry Brown, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Gray Davis, Pete Wilson, etc.
Was it Gray Davis that was involved with that young woman who was found dead?
I remember that Davis was always in the news - then 9/11 happened.
No, that was some congressman.
Gary Condit
https://www.today.com/news/chandra-levy-s-mom-my-daughter-gary-condit-weren-t-t104452
Sweden will just give apartments to Gimmigrants
Makes them happy,everyone there is happy
… everyone there is happy.”
“Why are Swedes so happy?”
https://www.quora.com/Why-are-Swedes-so-happy-A-Swedish-colleague-just-told-me-This-is-an-expensive-country-salaries-are-low-alcohol-costs-more-than-gold-Is-Sweden-living-proof-that-money-doesnt-make-you-happy
Here’s a happy comment from a happy commenter from HappyLand …
“I’m Swede. I’m very very happy with my life. But I think you’re a bit misled. Suicide rates in Sweden are very high. It’s a big problem among youths in this country. Even I had serious suicidal thoughts when I was younger. There are many explanations why but I can tell you one thing for sure. It has nothing to do with money.”
Or happiness.
Its because they dont see the sun for a long azz time and its colder than a failed presidential candidates . . you know what!
Suicide rates are high in the high northern latitudes, geez even the birds have the sense to fly south for the winter. You need that sun to makes da vitamin D, else you get depressed along with other negative health effects. This isnt rocket surgery, even a clownifornian could figure it out.
From Wikipedia …
“Sweden has a suicide rate which is below the OECD average.[1] During the 1960s, Sweden had one of the highest reported suicide rates in the First World, but it declined as methods for measuring were standardized internationally.[2]
“In 2011, 1378 suicide deaths occurred, which equates to a rate of 17.5 per 100,000 people. Individuals aged between 45 and 74 are most likely to take their own life, while individuals aged 15 to 24 are least likely.[3]
“Men are also far more likely than women to commit suicide. In 2011, 962 male deaths occurred versus 416 female deaths.[4]
“According to a 2011 article in The New York Times, “Numerous studies have shown that places like Denmark and Sweden that consistently score high on measures of happiness and life satisfaction also have relatively high suicide rates.” Said article also reported, “Some social scientists speculate that the trends are probably unrelated and can be explained by regional factors like dark winters or cultural differences regarding suicide.”[5]
The “happiness” of Scandinavians is self-reported, just like the vacancy rate of apartment buildings. Believe what you will.
LOL, yes, people cannot determine if they are happy, just like they cannot tell if they occupy their apartment. Don’t believe any of these statistics!
LOL, yes, people cannot determine if they are happy, just like they cannot tell if they occupy their apartment. Don’t believe any of these statistics!
The vacancy rate of apartments is “self-reported” by the complex managers, as has been discussed on this blog endlessly over the last couple of years. They have a motivation to lie.
As far as people’s self-reporting of happiness in response to a stranger questioning them, there are cultural issues at play. There is also, often, a motivation to lie in order to save face and preserve their self-identity.
I would think you would know a lot about lying.
“I would think you would know a lot about lying.”
… but not much about being truthful.
In regard to self-reporting, nobody is willing to admit they’re poor. Especially those who pile on debt to make themselves appear otherwise. It’s one of the great paradoxes.
In regard to self-reporting, nobody is willing to admit they’re poor. Especially those who pile on debt to make themselves appear otherwise. It’s one of the great paradoxes.
His increasingly angry posts make me think his debt is starting to roll over on him.
Toys R Us’s baby problem is everybody’s baby problem
The Washington Post
March 15, 2018
Andrew Van Dam
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/15/toys-r-uss-baby-problem-is-everybodys-baby-problem/?utm_term=.46431cf714a7
“There are endless reasons a big-box toy store would collapse during a retail apocalypse — and Toys R Us acknowledged a number of them in its most recent annual filing: the teetering tower of debt incurred by its private-equity owners, competition from Amazon, Walmart and Target.”
“They even wrung their hands about app stores, labor costs and potential tariffs raising the costs of the imported goods they sell.”
“But one risk stood out. Toys R Us said there just weren’t enough babies (emphasis ours):”
The decrease of birthrates in countries where we operate could negatively affect our business. Most of our end-customers are newborns and children and, as a result, our revenue are dependent on the birthrates in countries where we operate. In recent years, many countries’ birthrates have dropped or stagnated as their population ages, and education and income levels increase. A continued and significant decline in the number of newborns and children in these countries could have a material adverse effect on our operating results.
“It may not have been the biggest existential threat confronting Geoffrey the Giraffe (the store’s mascot), but it’s the one with the broadest implications outside of the worlds of toys and malls.”
“And that’s why the company’s demise should worry the rest of us. Toys R Us focuses on kids, so it’s feeling the crunch from declining birthrates long before the rest of the economy. But it’s just a matter of time before the trends that toppled the troubled toy maker put the squeeze on businesses that cater to consumers of all ages.”
“The smaller generation of children whose lackluster toy consumption brought down Geoffrey the Giraffe will be adults soon. They’ll become the prime-age consumer spenders that drive U.S. economic growth.”
Demographics are destiny. Toys R Us could be the canary in the coal mine when it comes to business models that are highly dependent on population growth. We may start to see a reverse in the housing needs in 10-15 years time as the US population pyramid starts to change rather dramatically.
How about this everything bubble (housing, college debt, etc) is discouraging people from getting married and forming households.
Also the divorce laws aren’t exactly favorable to men, so why should they bother when chances are they’ll just end up giving half of everything to their ex while she teaches his children to hate them?
“Instead of getting married again, I’m going to find a woman I don’t like and just give her a house.”
― Rod Stewart
No shortage of babies around here, believe me. And it’s all Wal-Mart and dollar store toys.
Donk,
That’s typical for an illegal alien ghetto.
LOLZ
“……Demographics are destiny….”
This is why you need a positive immigration policy.
It’s the debt, period. Yes there were challenges, but the stores weren’t empty, and the challenges predictable. It was cash cowed.
The quote below nails it. It’s not that prices have to start falling, but they just need to stop rising in order for momentum to completely reverse. It’s like a pyramid scheme…you can’t just maintain, but you need constant growth to keep it going.
“But the real risk is in house price expectations. If everyone expects house prices to rise, that changes the calculations for affordability. For the buyer and the lender. When house prices rise, the borrower who can’t afford their mortgage can simply sell their home. The profit makes them wealthier. It feels risk free to own property. You just need to get on that ladder somehow. It’s more of an escalator to wealth.”
“But all this can change. What happens when people stop believing house prices inherently go up? They don’t even have to go down, just stop going up. Suddenly, the entire premise of borrowing, owning property, and lending falls apart. Borrowers no longer demand unaffordable debt because it no longer enriches them. And lenders’ collateral values no longer inherently safeguard a loan. Suddenly, the lending decision is about default risk instead of collateral risk. Far fewer people can borrow in that environment.”
“…Suddenly, the lending decision is about default risk instead of collateral risk. Far fewer people can borrow in that environment.”
And then prices commence falling, thanks to the collapse in speculative demand…
London house prices are falling at the fastest pace since the depths of the recession almost a decade ago, with the capital’s most expensive areas seeing the biggest declines.
My Clash inspired ode to the bubble
*Ahem*
London falling to the faraway towns
Now bubble is declared and prices come down
London calling to the dirt poor third world
Come out of the cupboard, you boys and girls
London falling, now don’t look to us
Phony debtmania has bitten the dust
London falling, see we ain’t got no swing
‘Cept for the ring of that fat lady singin’
The ice age is coming, the sun is zooming in
Meltdown expected, the buyers growin’ thin
Shysters stop loaning, but I have no fear
‘Cause London is drowning in debt, and I, I live by the river!
Murphy, TX Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Dallas Area Housing Demand Plummets
https://www.zillow.com/murphy-tx/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
“There’s no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen. At a bare minimum, we are looking at Goldilocks 2.0. (And that’s a minimum). Goldilocks is alive and well. The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come. Yes, it’s still the greatest story never told…….In fact, we are about to enter the seventh consecutive year of the Bush boom.”
Larry Kudlow
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/steve-eisman-who-called-the-big-short-during-last-financial-crisis-says-hes-sleeping-easy-now.html
This guy has a bit more credibility than most.
Based on what?
He’s in a position to have far more data on the financial industry than you or I. And with that data, during 2005-2007, he was one of the few voices screaming about the bubble and looming financial disaster–when everyone else was saying that everything was fine.
Garbage in garbage out. He talks his book just like you talk yours.
You could have said precisely the same thing when he was talking about the coming housing crash when he was short on a ton of housing-related debt. It didn’t make him wrong.
Could’ve should’ve would’ve. The HBB was the first to announce it to the world.
I never heard of him. I just did a search and can’t find anything other than the movie (which I never bothered watching) and I don’t see any particular early insight into subprime. He worked for Morgan Stanley. I sure saw that name on a lot of foreclosure paperwork.
He seems to be a commie about colleges. Loves wall street investment banks, doesn’t think they should be broken up. And this is my problem with that asshat who wrote the book. It’s was a classic MSM set up to help protect the financial criminals from prosecution.
Ahem…
“Nothing here is criminal, it’s just stupid. I think they’re generally just stupid.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/steve-eisman-interview-on-housing-bust-2016-3
Yeah hundreds of S&L guys go to prison and the housing bubble people were just stupid. This is how the MSM whitewashes things. Pick out a sympathetic stooge. Play him up to be the face of those who “saw it coming”. Then ask him, “were there any crimes?”
What’s of interest is that at the TOP you are in the Recession that you think will take eight months to show up.
He’s in a position to have far more data on the financial industry than you or I.
Well, we here on the HBB live in the real, non-financially-levitated world. We see the on-the-ground reality that there is no whitewashing away.
I never heard of him. I just did a search and can’t find anything other than the movie (which I never bothered watching) and I don’t see any particular early insight into subprime. He worked for Morgan Stanley. I sure saw that name on a lot of foreclosure paperwork.
According to Wikipedia, he didn’t do so well after “The Big Short” era. For someone supposedly so smart, so financially attuned, so able to predict a crazy future and profit off it, such an insider, it’s a little funny.
He started his own fund and shut it down two years later after poor performance.
He now works for his parents.
+1
“The financial industry is so well-capitalized today that I don’t see any problems emerging for a very long time … I sleep very well.”
The financial industry has the government by the nutz, so he sleeps well.
Bitcoin Mining Banned for First Time in Upstate New York Town
By Lily Katz
March 16, 2018, 10:59 AM PDT
- Plattsburgh places 18-month moratorium on mining operations
- Rule breakers to pay up to $1,000 each day they violate law
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-16/bitcoin-mining-banned-for-first-time-in-upstate-new-york-town
Music, sweet music…
Your post inspired me to look into the suicide rate of Eskimos since in Eskimoland it is cold and dark, and it turns out the suicide rate is quite high, but not necessarily because it is cold and dark. Anyway, it makes for an interesting read.
“The Arctic Suicides: Your Questions Answered.”
“Last week, NPR published a special report on suicide in Native Arctic communities. Reporter Rebecca Hersher spent 10 weeks in Greenland, the Arctic country with the highest known suicide rate in the world: 82.8 suicides per 100,000 people each year — six times higher than the U.S. suicide rate. She interviewed Inuit people in the Greenlandic capital, Nuuk, and in small towns on the country’s remote east coast. She spoke with community leaders and mental health professionals who are trying to prevent suicide and come to terms with its underlying causes.
“Here, Hersher answers some of your questions about the series.
“The headline, “The Arctic Suicides: It’s Not The Dark That Kills You,” makes it clear that people don’t kill themselves because of the dark. So is it the cold?
“A lot of people asked this. Honestly, when I started reporting this story, I asked this question, too. The dark and cold seem like natural culprits for the high suicide rate in Arctic communities. In a lot of Greenlandic towns, the temperature stays well below freezing for six months or more, and, depending on how far above the Arctic Circle you are, the sun doesn’t come up for weeks and weeks in the winter. But when it comes to suicide, cold and dark are just not the problem, or at least they’re not the main problem (one can never truly know why any one person kills himself or herself).
“In Greenland, and in other parts of the Arctic, there is a suicide “season” — a time when the most people die by suicide. It’s well-known among public health officials and priests and teachers and other people who professionally worry about people in the community. The suicide season is spring. When the dark and the cold finally lift, and the sun is up and the ice is melting. That’s when people end their lives. It’s not the dark or the cold. It’s something a lot more complicated (which you can read about here).”
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/05/01/476168761/the-arctic-suicides-your-questions-answered
Wrong spot for this post; It should have been posted several posts up from here.
Banker is now a post policeman?? LOL
He’s policing himself and pointing out his own error. Lighten up.
Housing my good friends…. Housing.
Napa, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY On Rising Mortgage Defaults Statewide
https://www.movoto.com/napa-ca/market-trends/
Centennial, CO Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Denver Area Market Fundamentals Deteriorate
https://www.movoto.com/centennial-co/market-trends/
How much is that lean-to Richard Chamberlain was shacking up in?
Reap what you sow, life in libtardia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APZgOyYMk_E
Yo Dave, put a shirt on bruh, I’m out of eye bleach!
I love me some Haight
Did the dude taking his shirt off at 1:35 run out of money in the middle of Liposuction or sex change operations?
Exceptional flexibility on that Homeless cranium kick at 1:48
What do the houses in that area sell for? Can you imagine how unaffordable they would be if not for the homeless opioid addicts and the roving bands of homeless youths with pit bulls doing their parts to keep prices at reasonable levels?
The King and Sullivan development, a 22-townhouse complex, in Red Hook.
Red Hook section 8 ghetto gangs a long walk to the subway in the dark (but cheap) not so many years ago
Andrew McCabe has been fired, just short of his pension eligibility. I’m going to have a great weekend.
49?? he looks 65 and older
Is it a law that a gov worker is due a pension no matter what
The resolver ,,governmentarian s vs privsec
McCabe had to contribute to Social Security and likely contributed to his 401k account. The question is his annuity, which law enforcement can start drawing at 50-yrs of age if retiring. Many law enforcement opt for a disability claim, which pays-off much better. Few claims are questioned according to the press. Besides it a heck of a job dealing with a side of humanity that few could imagine.
Happy St. Patrick’s Day, HBB! This time I won’t be buying the Irish Cream from Aldi’s, lol.
Same to you palmetto
Erin go Bragh
Poor Patrick, he doesn’t get a Solemnity, Feast or even a Memorial on the Liturgical Calendar. What that means is that he’s considered a minor saint. Monday the 19th is the Feast of Saint Joseph.
Wouldn’t you rather have people the world over drinking the libations of their choices in your honor than have your name included in some stodgy liturgical calendar?
he’s considered a minor saint
Be that as it may, last year when the 17th fell on a Lenten Friday, the local bishop dispensed his flock from their obligation to abstain from meat, so that all could enjoy their corned beef on the correct day.
One of last remaining Blockbusters in US set to close,,,guess where???
https://nypost.com/2018/03/15/one-of-last-remaining-blockbusters-in-us-set-to-close/
From the summary: “Former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke was famously asked in 2005 what would happen if house prices across the US fall. He refused to answer the question: ‘Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise.’ It had never happened before, Bernanke told lawmakers, so it would never happen.”
That’s a bizarre statement. Case Shiller shows plenty of house price ups and downs over the decades.
I don’t think housing dropped on a “national” scale. It was usually a regional correction.
Pretty sure real estate dropped nationally during the depression.
Also, the index is supposed to represent a national view.
a house of cards based on low borrowing costs is bound to implode if rates go up.
This whole recovery has been based on more govt debt, corporate debt and household debt.
If folks cant service the debt they default and collateral for loans goes to sh@T.
They are in way to deep to let it happen.
And you know what’s interesting: one of the country’s top economists, with an impeccable pedigree stretching to Harvard and MIT, who became chairman of the Fed… had no inkling there was a Depression-level event about to happen.
What does that say about
1) him
2) the Fed
3) the profession
Bernake’s watch at the FED says he was educated beyond his own intelligence.
Kenneth Gailbraith warned people about technocrats and then became one, himself.
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
Can’t say we didn’t do our parts to warn the experts. Plenty of really smart people were clueless.
“Uncertainty hangs over the roughly 28,400 rental units expected to be built in Brooklyn over the next several years — about a thousand more than all the units built in the past decade, according to Nancy Packes Data Services, a real estate consultancy. Faced with falling prices, developers are offering concessions like a month or more of free rent, discounted broker fees and even free parking for a record share of apartments.”
Does this mean my two college-graduate children will be able to get their own places? That my daughter’s boyfriend will be able to live with fewer than two other roommates? That the non-college graduate folks who grew up in Brooklyn won’t have to become homeless or move away?
There is enormous, latent, financially suppressed demand in NYC. The worst case scenario is what happened in Miami after the 2000s housing bubble. Bankruptcy, banks go under, workout, purchase — middle class rental housing. Except that from another point if view, its the best case scenario.
I just cannot see how global central banks are gonna let yields on US bonds go up and subsequently crash asset prices.
The bond markets are dominated by central bank purchases.
How could they allow yields to increase without catching blame for ensuing bad stuff that would happen?
Massive debt overhang notwithstanding, rates are going higher.
The 2-year Treasury yield ends at 9½ year high as market braces for Fed rate hikes
By Mark DeCambre and Sunny Oh
Published: Mar 15, 2018 4:53 p.m. ET
The two-year Treasury note yield marked a more than a nine-year high on Thursday after a jump in import prices and strong manufacturing data were seen keeping the Federal Reserve on track to raise rates three times, and potentially four times, this year.
How are Treasurys performing?
The two-year note yield the most sensitive to shifting expectations for Fed policy, rose 2.7 basis points to 2.287%, the highest closing yield since Sept. 2008, marking a fresh 52-week peak for yields, according to WSJ Market Data Group.
…
how and why does an economy go from that of savings and productivity to one that revolves around rising stock and home prices? What sets this pattern in motion?
No Child Left Behind.
Low rates forever?
It begins with religion.
Right. Namely the religion of ever-rising asset prices.
As country gets richer, homeowners see the most gain
But this growth in net worth isn’t benefiting all Americans equally
By Patrick Sisson
Mar 13, 2018, 12:00pm EDT
Late last year, the United States quietly hit a financial milestone. According to a report from the Federal Reserve, household net worth in this country rose to a new record, hitting $98.74 trillion.
That astronomical figure—the sum of all assets, such as stocks and real estate, minus the cost of debts and liabilities, like outstanding credit card payments—jumped $2 trillion in the last quarter of 2017 alone, surging past pre-Great Recession levels.
As economist Michael Feroli told the Wall Street Journal, the ratio of wealth to income is “at pretty dizzying levels right now,” especially considering that the U.S. savings rate has actually decreased in recent years, dropping from 7.19 percent in 2015 to 3.74 percent last year.
At the risk of echoing the “greed is good” ethos, increased household wealth can be a positive thing overall. More buying power can mean more investment and economic activity. It’s certainly better than decreasing wealth, though some analysts have said the concurrent rise in assets and decrease in savings looks uncomfortably similar to the run-up to other financial busts.
…
“It begins with religion.”
Then add socialism, asset inflation and weak dollar policies.
It seems like the Fed’s War on Savers has been a resounding success.
March 14, 2018 in Savings
Despite an improving economy, 20% of Americans aren’t saving any money
Taylor Tepper
A rising tide isn’t lifting all boats.
The unemployment rate rests at a post-recession low, stocks flirt with all-time highs and paychecks are perking up in recent months thanks to a slight increase in wages and the implementation of the GOP tax bill. Consumers are as confident as they’ve been in two decades.
And yet, one-fifth of Americans are adding nothing to their savings, according to a Bankrate survey. Why not? Among respondents, 2 in 5 cite life’s high expenses, while another 1 in 6 blame their crummy job.
Americans who aren’t saving now may not get a chance to later. The current economic expansion, which began after the end of the Great Recession in spring 2009, is one of the longest in U.S. history.
The party has to stop sometime, and when it does, employers will lay off workers. Without a fully financed emergency fund, you may be unprepared for disaster. Meanwhile, half of Americans won’t maintain their standard of living in retirement.
“With a steady, significant share of the working population saving nothing or relatively little, it’s virtually guaranteed that they’ll be unable to afford a modest emergency expense or finance retirement,” says Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick. “That amounts to a financial fail.”
Prudence is most necessary during the good times.
What’s keeping people from saving?
Among respondents, 20 percent said they aren’t saving anything or don’t have an income. Another 47 percent are saving 1 to 10 percent, and 27 percent are saving 11 percent of their income or more.
Expenses are the biggest obstacle, with 39 percent of the respondents citing this as the main reason they’re not saving. Sixteen percent said their job isn’t good enough, while an equal amount said the main reason they aren’t saving more is because they haven’t gotten around to it.
…
What sets this pattern in motion?
Government policies that give free money to the holders of preferred assets?
Rain Man (5/11) Movie CLIP - Flying’s Very Dangerous (1988) HD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4Hwsz1sQmc