It Is Going To End In Tears
A report from The Business News Network in Canada. “A video of rapper Pitbull jumping and dancing on stage, surrounded by six dancers, isn’t an image one would typically associate with the property market. But that’s the first item showcased on the website of the Real Estate Wealth Expo, which will have thousands flocking to the Metro Toronto Convention Centre - one of the city’s biggest event venues - in early April. This year’s real estate spectacular has a celebrity speaker roster that includes actor Sylvester Stallone, former baseball star Alex Rodriguez and Dragons’ Den’s Manjit Minhas, while last year’s lineup featured well-known life coach Tony Robbins. A ticket for this year’s event costs anywhere between $149 to $5,995.”
“‘It’s your time to become a millionaire!,’ the expo’s website says, with flashy promises that attendees can learn how to flip properties, become top earners, hone a ‘millionaire mindset’ and even find out how to ‘use other people’s money to fund YOUR deals… regardless of your credit score.’”
“It comes at an inflection point in Canada’s largest housing market. Greater Toronto Area home sales plummeted 34.9 per cent year-over-year in February in the wake of several regulatory changes, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board. ‘I think the purpose of those seminars is more for entertainment than for anything else,’ said Hilliard MacBeth, an Edmonton-based financial advisor and author of the book When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash. ‘This is to keep people’s spirits up, and given how sales of single-family homes in Toronto are down, cheerleading might be a difficult task this year and so people are choosing to concentrate on bitcoin.’”
From The Real Deal on Canada. “Some view the existence of McMansions as categorically bad architecture, but, whether deemed tasteful or not in the eye of the beholder, they will likely be the hardest hit if the city’s bubble bursts. The verdict comes from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s deputy chief economist, Aled ab Iorwerth, who told the Financial Times, that detached, well-located homes are already seeing pricing drops due to a string of cooling measures banks and government has introduced since April 2017.”
“Toronto’s market has been overheating for years and experts have been trying to warn buyers off what seems like an inevitable crash — ‘It is going to end in tears,’ warned one analyst in 2016. The measures are starting to have an effect: Knight Frank logged a 6 percent drop in prices for prime homes in the fourth quarter of 2017. The Toronto Real Estate Board also logged a 19 percent decrease in home sales last fall.”
From the Calgary Sun in Canada. “New home starts in Alberta in February were up slightly from January, but down noticeably on a year-over-year basis. An oversupply of new homes is another concern, particularly in the province’s two largest cities. ‘Many condo projects are just starting to break ground, which will add many more new homes to the housing stock,’ says the research team at ATB Financial in its Owl newsletter. ‘In fact, there are a growing number of newly completed houses that remain vacant in many of Alberta’s newer neighbourhoods.’”
From the Daily Mail on Australia. “Sydney’s housing bubble may be set to burst as prices fell by up to 30% in some suburbs. A steep fall in buyer demand, a crackdown on investor loans and a curbing of tax benefits are all reasons behind the drop, experts say. The drop, which is the largest since 2008, is a welcome relief for buyers looking to enter the world’s second most expensive property market, 9News reported.”
“The inner city suburb of Darlinghurst saw the biggest drop with buyers seeing a 30.6 per cent fall in some prices. Bellevue Hill also saw a massive fall with prices being 16 per cent cheaper and in Vancluse the adjustment was 13 per cent. Sydney’s southern suburbs of Sutherland and Alfords Point saw a drop in prices of 15 per cent respectively. Experiencing a smaller cut of 10 per cent were Narrabeen, Matraville, Cammeray, Tempe, Coogee, Mascot and Belfield.”
“CoreLogic’s Kevin Brogan says sellers should not be concerned as the market moves to correct itself. ‘At the moment it’s trending towards being a buyer’s market, but I think what we’re seeing is quite a gradual adjustment to the market,’ he said.”
“Compared to this time last year there are 25 per cent more homes on the market and there’s been a twenty per cent drop in buyers, industry figures reveal. Over the last fortnight the auction clearance rate dropped to just 56.1 per cent. At the same time last year 78 per cent of homes were selling.”
From News Nine in Australia. “The cracks are beginning to show in the Sydney property market, with the inflated prices from six months ago dissipating. It’s the steepest drop in a decade, with the average price of a home now priced at $880,743. CoreLogic’s Kevin Brogan said the tide was slowly turning. ‘I don’t think there’s any cause for panic,’ he said.”
“Auctioneer Sebastian Bonaccorso from Elders Inner West and agent Gavin Sanna successfully sold a three bedroom home at Earlwood today for $1.522 million. ‘I’m finding buyers who were able to borrow 1.5 last year can only get to 1.2 this year,’ Mr Sanna said.”
‘The measures are starting to have an effect…a crackdown on investor loans and a curbing of tax benefits are all reasons behind the drop’
Well golly, this is Toronto and Sydney. Red hot and shortage! Then a little tinkering with the gravy and THUD! See, we don’t need to build our way out of anything. There never was a shortage.
Isn’t it ironic that falling prices bring out a surplus.
‘Compared to this time last year there are 25 per cent more homes on the market and there’s been a twenty per cent drop in buyers, industry figures reveal’
It’s crow eatin’ time rental watch.
“Crow Meat Comes Back — Boosts Sexual Potency?”
“June 9, 2009—In Lithuania, eating crow isn’t an exercise in public humiliation, as the English idiom suggests. Here, crow is literally eaten, and says one connoisseur, “it increases sexual potency.”
(snip)
“In Lithuania, crow has been part of a traditional diet throughout the centuriesmostly eaten during times of hardship.”
(snip)
“Back home, the birds are plucked and then the crow meat is prepared in cooking oil at a high temperature and served with vegetables.”
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/06/090609-eating-crow-video-ap.html
Toronto is not the US…and they were building a huge number of housing units there.
Not like in the US…from a WSJ article today:
“Home construction per household a decade after the bust remains near the lowest level in 60 years of record-keeping, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.”
You couldn’t say the same thing about Toronto…not even close.
Nationally, Canada was building approximately 220k housing units per year during the bubble years…they got back to about 190k by 2009/2010, and recently hit 220k on a 6-month rolling average. They’ve been running at ~90% or more of peak bubble construction levels for almost a decade.
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-starts.pdf
US peaked at about 2MM, and have barely topped 1.2MM for many years….60% of peak levels.
They don’t compare.
It’s different there of course.
The Canadians are still in the first inning of this credit/housing bubble. The Canadians I know believe that it is a financial disaster not to be invested in Real Estate. It’s the same mania as we have in the US, although more leveraged.
The big declines in Toronto and Sydney are in established, detached shack areas, popular with foreign speculators.
I recall last time, with great dismay, how quickly both Australian and Canadian bubbles reinflated.
The big declines in Toronto and Sydney are in established, detached shack areas, popular with foreign speculators.
And they were building plenty to meet that speculative demand.
How could they have been “building plenty” in old neighborhoods? What they are building is condos.
And those condos don’t have bedroom windows, or too-narrow doorways, or builder-grade appliances at luxe price. They aren’t meant to be lived in.
They aren’t meant to be lived in.
Maybe they should restart the beanie baby bubble. They’re easy to store, have no property tax and don’t require maintenance.
It’s primarily Brisbane and Melbourne where they were/are building those types of condos.
How could they have been “building plenty” in old neighborhoods? What they are building is condos.
Overbuilding condos will absolutely effect the single family market…and overbuilding single family homes will effect the condo market.
After all, many families could choose to live in either (depending on price, location, and size).
I haven’t seen reports of overbuilding anything in Toronto. A 15-30% drop is a popped bubble. And it resulted from targeted actions on loans and speculation by the respective governments and finance regulators. This is all we need in the US. Or you can let it run its course and crater, like Miami and Manhattan.
It is super emotional
Parents, grandparents have encourage kids (late 20’s, early 30’s) to buy, with their help condos, townhouses.
They cannot rethink this advise - because the will have to admit that they have hurt these folks.
I am going back to Toronto in April for a wedding. There are so many cousins that have a townhouse (for just 1 person) who are just hanging on financially. I will try to talk them straight - and see if they have any inclination to sell.
I have a 2nd cousin that is basically spending 75% on housing …. that there is no (unborrowed) furniture in the house. Imagine owning a townhouse in a partially trendy neighbourhood that is living in sparse 70’s furniture
Earlier in the Bubble, like in the ’80s, it was common for young couples to buy as big a house as possible and not have much furniture in it. At least I noticed this in NY/NJ/PA.
I’m not saying government intervention didn’t assist in home prices falling. Clearly after their reforms, foreign buyers went from 10-15% down to under 5% of residential transactions–This is a big reduction in demand.
However, the reforms occurred with a backdrop of there being plenty of housing being built.
https://www.constructconnect.com/blog/economy/50-year-histories-housing-starts-canadas-largest-cities/
50-year average in Toronto was ~31k.
2015 was north of 40k
2016 was 39k
Canadian starts as a whole were at the highest level in 10-years in 2017. While I haven’t seen summary housing start data for the whole of 2017 for Toronto, I saw a graph that was monthly and showed no dropoff in 2017 (my guess is the summary would show a number at least as high as 2015/2016).
So, they were building about 33% more than the long-term average…from 2015 to 2017.
And then there is this article from May 2017:
https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/05/08/toronto-is-over-housed-despite-overall-population-growth-report.html
“The draft report, called “Protecting the Vibrancy of Residential Neighbourhoods,” shows that Toronto is over-housed, with a majority of 140 city neighbourhoods suffering from a stagnant or declining population over the last 30 years”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/ontario-housing-16-big-changes-explained-in-charts/article34757648/
This article outlines what they did in Toronto…which mainly appears to be aimed at curtailing speculation (in large part by non-residents–or so it appears).
For comparison, the US is still building housing at about 75% of the long-term average, and non-resident foreign buyers represent 2% of the total existing home sales (resident foreign buyers are another 3%, making up the total of 5% foreign buyers).
In the 80s it was a lot harder to get a credit card, even store credit cards. Nowadays I can take a credit card to IKEA and furnish an entire house.
“I will try to talk them straight - and see if they have any inclination to sell.”
Seems like finding a willing buyer is the current challenge.
Maybe it is useful to keep the shortage meme going. Think of the affordability goals that will be realized if the next recession is accompanied by a massive glut of new residential construction.
‘Knight Frank logged a 6 percent drop in prices for prime homes in the fourth quarter of 2017′
Yeah, but if you look at last April the drop is well into double digits.
‘In fact, there are a growing number of newly completed houses that remain vacant in many of Alberta’s newer neighbourhoods.’
Echos of Ias Vegas and Phoenix.
<Bethesda, MD Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/bethesda-md/market-trends/
TRUMPS TRADE WAR CAUSES EU MELTDOWN - EU IS IN BIG TROUBLE - EARL OF DARTMOUTH & FARAGE DEFEND US
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyQ5Ic72EBM
Check out the message at 10:14.
Thanks for that, Ben. It’s nice to see. I remember Brexit night here on the HBB. Next to election night, it was one of my favorites.
Full disclosure: this is palmetto here, posting under a different moniker for the time being, expressing one of my pet peeves when it comes to renting. I’ll revert back to palmetto at some point, probably when things are fixed.
Is this some sort of trans thing you are going through?
😁
Can u “escrow” your rent ,so to speak
I had a nice time camping oceanside under a palm last week. Collected some shells combing the beach. Saw Dolphins.
Good luck with your landlord. He must not have expected the depreciation.
Glad you enjoyed, blue.
I actually like my ll. It’s just that when they’re at a distance, they often don’t appreciate the urgency of certain repairs.
Hot water and AC
Heh, so far those have been fine. The HVAC here is decent and our power bills have decreased somewhat, which is good.
TRUMPS TRADE WAR…
The EU is the bully on the playground. If anyone stands up to them they are all sorts of horrible things. It is nice to hear this pointed out by our British friends.
It appears that countries are so accustomed to Americans giving their money away that the recipients feel entitled. IIRC, at one point US companies began bringing call centers back to the US, and folks in India got angry that we were “stealing their jobs.” I guess Europe is the same way. I guess they need to support their new guests somehow.
“It appears that countries are so accustomed to Americans giving their money away that the recipients feel entitled.”
Recall the bumper sticker, “Support mental health or I’ll kill you.”
Exactly, we are expected to buy everything the rest of the world makes, and they only buy our stuff because they don’t make it themselves. As soon as they do (witness the Chinese C919 airliner), they stop buying from us, even if our product is superior in every way.
“Check out the message at 10:14.”
That was great. Nationalism is spreading globally. Good is prevailing over evil. People are becoming awakened. God bless DJT.
“Given how sales of single-family homes in Toronto are down, cheerleading might be a difficult task this year and so people are choosing to concentrate on bitcoin.”
So in order to escape the painful reality that is the correcting Toronto housing market people are supposed to focus on Bitcoin? Given that Bitcoin is down about 60% from it’s high, that is going to be some pretty cold comfort.
Time to buy the bitdip…
Suck ‘em in, shake ‘em out. Here’s a guy who is predicting bitcoin will …
“Reach $91,000 by March 2020, Based On Performances After Past Dips”
https://cointelegraph.com/news/tom-lee-predicts-bitcoin-to-reach-91000-by-march-2020-based-on-performances-after-past-dips
Which past dips is he using as reference? Tulip bulbs? Pets dot com? DeLorean Motors?
Serious question.
What exactly is the different in business models between Pets.com and Chewy.com.
Seems to be both models involve shipping of cat litter and dog food.
Am I missing something?
It jumped $1,400 for no reason late yesterday.
It approached a “death cross” and it bounced. It’s no longer for kiddies and crisps. It’s strictly a TA game now.
Or like S & M.
Does a President spanking a porn star with a copy of the ECONOMIST fall under the heading of S and M?
Only if it’s the Christmas Holiday Double Issue.
“Suck ‘em in, shake ‘em out.”
Every time you post that, all I can think of is that godawful song “Disco Lady”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3JkEoQ0Cz8
“The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses and governments (all levels) continues unabated.
At the end of December, 2017 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $7.603 trillion. At the end of December, 2016 the total debt outstanding was $7.25 trillion. In the 1 year period from the end of December, 2016 to the end of December, 2017 it increased by $353.5 billion. This is an increase of 4.8%.”
http://owecanada.blogspot.ca/2018/03/canadian-total-household-business-and.html
94 Winn-Dixie, Bi-Lo, Harveys, Fresco markets closing. Is yours?
Kelly Tyko and Anna B. Mitchell, TCPalm and Greenville (S.C.) News
Published 10:57 p.m. ET March 15, 2018 |
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2018/03/15/94-winn-dixie-bi-lo-harveys-fresco-markets-closing-yours/430893002/
Five years ago I spent several weeks in the South and shopped at the Bi-Lo a few times. The construction and food quality appeared to be on the level of the late 1970s. Whenever I could, I went to the Super WalMart.
If WalMart’s produce is better than yours, you’re doing something terribly wrong
TBH I was so turned off by the dingy aging store (and parking lot) that I didn’t pay much attention to the produce. WalMart has an the advantage of very high turnover, so nothing sits out for too long.
If Sam Zell says sells
Who am I to buy?
My county is repurposing office buildings into ? 😂 alien internment camps? Adult daycare ?
From yesterday:
——————-
Comment by alphonso bedoya
2018-03-18 10:43:02
All of the elevators on all on its [Miami-Dade]campuses have expired July 2016 elevator inspection certificates.
The Latin Building Association owns the city.
——————-
Is the Latin Building Association real thing, or is this slang for shoddy illegal immigrant work? Or shoddy Latin management? I guess that’s part of other cultures. Good construction that doesn’t fall down within a year is less important than being someone’s brother.
it’s a real thing:
http://lbaorg.com/
“I guess that’s part of other cultures. Good construction that doesn’t fall down within a year is less important than being someone’s brother.”
Certain cultures get a bad rap for shoddy work or crony corruption, but it is not always warranted. Having work as a sub on a number of government building projects in South Florida during the 1990s, most of the time it didn’t matter who was doing what, you were held to some pretty stringent standards, especially if you were working on a school of some sort. Many of the Cuban American architects and engineers were very exacting and also very gracious to deal with. One of the best companies we ever worked for was based in Brazil. They were very strict to the point of being stern, but fair and they paid on time. Frankly they hated working in Miami and the project manager was miserable and wanted to get home to Brazil ASAP. Very classy guy who spoke fluent English.
Toward the end of the 1990s it got ugly, however. Something changed and I suspect it had to do with NAFTA. Whereas there had been cooperation between Anglos and Latinos in Miami Dade County prior to that, it seemed like all of a sudden Anglos need not apply, and it was done with a viciousness I’d never seen before. The writing was on the wall, so we moved out of the area.
it seemed like all of a sudden Anglos need not apply, and it was done with a viciousness I’d never seen before
I suspect that it was even narrower than you think. I’ll bet it was “non Cubans need not apply”, though maybe Puerto Ricans were given a pass. Mexicans or Central Americans? I doubt it.
“The writing was on the wall, so we moved out of the area.”
That should be happening soon in California. Kindly remove your non Raza keister from Aztlan. Oh, and if you’re Cuban or Puerto Rican, you don’t count. I’m not sure even Central Americans are considered “La Raza”
I’ll bet it was “non Cubans need not apply”—Colorado
Yes. And it’s now a small group that have this city locked up.
Do NOT blame it on immigrant construction. The plans were altered in Miami. Kapish.
YOU DO NOT STRESS TEST A BRIDGE WITH MEN ATOP IT AND TRAFFIC BELOW IT !!
I saw this the other day:
Post Tension Failure Florida Bridge Collapse | Engineering … - YouTube
Video for post tensioned bridge failure
▶ 16:13
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtiTm2dKLgU
3 days ago
Steam cured precast jyyyyyyunk.
Oh, dear. These ladies are gonna get a bad rap, for sure. And an FIU graduate, no less.
http://sandrarose.com/2018/03/diversity-fail-women-engineering-team-behind-collapse-miami-pedestrian-bridge/
“Bridge Passed Stress Test Hours Before it Fell”
Nope. It fell while it was being stress tested without its overhead cables in place.
So from what I’m hearing it sounds more like a process issue than necessarily a design issue? I wonder who is responsible for following installation and test processes? I could see this being pushed off onto a scapegoat.
Check out the comment section to that article. Half of the org chart is men. You know, the men who are “twice as good at math” as women.
By the way, that “twice as good at math” stat is so misleading as to be ridiculous. What does twice as good mean? Twice the test scores? Or just twice are many humans being good?
And how much math do you need to follow a procedure to shut down the road underneath??!?
“YOU DO NOT STRESS TEST A BRIDGE WITH MEN ATOP IT AND TRAFFIC BELOW IT !!”
There was no stress “test”. A firm was hired to monitor deflection in the precast as it was flown to position with the HydroMobiles.
Back to housing my friend.
Agoura Hills, CA Housing Prices Crater 23% YOY As Mortgage Defaults Mount
https://www.movoto.com/agoura-hills-ca/market-trends/
Thanks for the video, Ben. This is why I became a STEM (or more, accurately, why I didn’t drop out of STEM). You can’t talk away a bridge break. You can’t bribe away a bridge break. The bridge doesn’t give you brownie points if you are “diverse” or “inclusive,” or if you’re the owner’s brother or cousin, or if you’re a “strong woman” whatever other PC nonsense. The bridge won’t stay up just out of the goodness of its heart to not hurt some snowflake’s fee-fees. The bridge is the ultimate in merit-based color- and culture- blindness.
And this failure can’t be hidden. It’s hard to say “mistakes were made” or “this is an unknown unknown” or “the bridge lied under oath.” No, this is 100% known knowns and they’ve been known since the time of Isaac Newton. No excuses.
“…without its overhead cables in place.”
Cable-Stayed bridges are usually constructed from the center tower outward in both directions simultaneously.
By the looks of the demolition derby there were tendons threaded and tensioned after erection of the precast. Or should have been. It’s tough to tell without close up photos or design docs.
If they didn’t have the cable support system installed yet, they had no business placing the bridge in place without, at a minimum, some support in the center (between the traffic lanes in the center median).
We are progressing forward into a third-world country, more every day! Let us embrace the diversity and be tolerant of all engineering designs. They tried and that’s all that counts.
Hakuna matata
Salam Walekum!
Bellaire, TX Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY On Burgeoning Housing Inventory
https://www.zillow.com/bellaire-tx/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Been dreading the rent renewal. Housing is so expensive and my job hasn’t had any raise or bonus for me (but apparently lots of other employees get them, I’m eager to move on actually.)
Well, get an unexpected email from landlord yesterday. Rent is going to increase $10/mo due to property tax increase. Yay! He really likes that I have always paid on time, and pay early. We setup ACH mid last year so I just xfer over all the money like 8 days before end of month. Sounds like he has a lot of issues from other tenants in other properties (It’s a group of Indians that started an investment club I think.) So good. If I can move to a better job I can save more for a downpayment, and prices will only continue to increase 2x faster than what I can save. Would rather be buying.
Even overpaying I would come out ahead in the long run, but for now crisis averted.
My cousins rent in Seattle rent fell $100/month even though property taxes increased 15%.
If your rent goes up, you have the following options:
1) Search for something comparable and cheaper. If you find it, move.
2) Search for something not comparable (smaller, not as nice, farther away, etc). If you find it move.
3) Stay put and pay more.
4) You could buy.
It was only in the past couple of years that I realized I had been living in Grade B (and one Grade B+) complex the entire time I rented. If you’re living in Grade B, you can’t go much cheaper without bordering on unacceptable. Especially in my very “diverse” area. I suppose I could have tolerated a longer commute…
Don’t make the irreversible mistake of buying at a bubble peak, just before a recession. Save your money until the economy takes a dive, then buy at 30% off. You can thank me later if you manage to stay clear of the lemmings herd and follow my simple suggestion.
5) Negotiate
5) Negotiate
You can try. The worst that could happen is the land lord says no.
6) Rent it for half the monthly cost. Buy it later after prices crater for 70% less.
Euliss, TX Housing Prices Crater 36% YOY As Dallas Area Housing Correction Hits High Gear
https://www.movoto.com/keller-tx/market-trends/
https://www.movoto.com/euless-tx/market-trends/
7) Live in an RV
5) Negotiate
This is what I did, to my LL’s proposed modest rent increase. They agreed to keep the rent the same as we’d been paying.
For tenants who always pay on time and are good to the property, a landlord would be a fool to try to raise the already sky-high rent. A single month vacancy will take years to recoup, assuming the next tenant even compares favorably.
You can do that with an individual LL. I tried that with my nationwide-based LL, even getting the local government involved. The LL came down a little bit, but then made up for it in the next increase a year later. I asked again and they told me to stuff it. I guess in 2011, Grade B was a bit scarce and they had larger units (for illegals and military families) so they had enough demand.
If you plan to negotiate with the LL, make sure that you are ready to move on short notice.
For tenants who always pay on time and are good to the property, a landlord would be a fool to try to raise the already sky-high rent. A single month vacancy will take years to recoup, assuming the next tenant even compares favorably.
When we rented, we were lucky enough to find a place a short walk to a local downtown. We responded to the Craigslist ad at like 9:00 in the morning, and we were second in line (we got lucky though, the first in line declined, as she was pregnant and had miscarriage problems before…didn’t want the stress of a move).
As my wife one time suggested we call the LL for some tiny issue, I suggested we deal with it ourselves, as this particular LL didn’t need to rent to us (they could find another tenant in a day if we were high maintenance).
And so we were painless tenants. Occasionally, we did some minor improvements (installed new ceiling fans, new kitchen faucet, etc.). Always gave the LL the documentation on what we installed so they had the warranty information (and so they knew we were maintaining the place).
They raised our rent apologetically every couple of years…generally a couple percent at a time, usually citing expense increases that they didn’t control (like property taxes or insurance)..
When we found a place to buy (after 7 years renting the same house), the LL was sad to see us go…but the next tenant (who moved in very shortly after we moved out) paid 35% more than what were paying at the end of our occupancy.
He was an experienced LL…owned several houses that he rented, and he was always in his little truck driving around dealing with small matters…I think he appreciated the fact that we were very infrequently a stop on his route.
6) https://goo.gl/images/2aEMGx
Just buy it.
Congrats…make sure to sign a new lease (if you think you want to stay for at least another year).
Get out of that s-hole and go some place where rents are dirt cheap. House came up for sale in my ‘hood over the weekend, 495K. Maybe 200 sq ft bigger than my house, but built in 1940(!) whereas mine was built probably in the 80s. House for sale is on a corner lot with a little traffic whereas I’m safely ensconced at the end of a private drive. I rent for 1050/mo. Thats right, 1050 a month. RE vultures can suck it.
At the end of the day it comes down to how much of your life do you want to give up for possessions - how much of your ego is tied up in stuff.
But I’m just a dumb renter, so what do I know?
“Been dreading the rent renewal.”
Hire a negotiator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUPCQ-Q_8Zk
Ethan, IMHO I think it’s still better than being back in Norfolk. Here, it’s easier to find another job because there are more companies looking for what you’re selling. The unemployment rate approaches 3%. You’ll have offers to pick and choose from, once you put the pedal to the metal and look consistently.
Word of caution: don’t give any “recruiter” any resumes unless they identify the client and get you in front of a hiring manager. If they won’t identify the client they are just papering their files to fill out a weekly activities report, and shotgunning you everywhere indiscriminately.
Pick who you want to work for, and focus relentlessly. Network in. Go to Nova Makers and make the members honorary extended colleagues. They’re productive people, and seem like they would be your tribe. If you can jury rig a series of demonstrations on ?pinball machines? you’d be King.
Please don’t dismiss the possibility that Las Vegas could have too many machines and too few fixers! In this area, the people who understand how to operate in the kinetic world are a minority. May be the case in Las Vegas as well.
I seem to recall that your hobby was refurbishing pinball machines. If I’m wrong, feel free to slap me with a wet noodle, lol!
Best, Jane
Peace and best to you - Jane
Is anyone surprised at the gangsta rapper being used to promote housing? The real estate market is desperate in many areas so this doesn’t seem far fetched to me. I still wouldn’t buy anyways. Put it this way, they wouldn’t like my offer one bit!
Do you have a link to an article or ad where this is happening? I’m curious. I wonder if it’s an ad for some government housing cheese.
Yo … from 2012, white rappers pushing real estate …
https://youtu.be/hf2xJBh7jww
I thought Pitbull is more of a top 40 dance music rapper, not really a gangster rapper.
There was a contest a while ago for what city he should play in. 4chan added Kodiak Alaska and crushed the votes on the site trying to send him there. After it was all said and done, he went there anyways to show respect to the town even knowing it was an internet troll.
Dallas-Fort Worth is one of most overvalued home markets in the country, a top Wall Street analyst warns.
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2018/03/19/ratings-firm-raises-red-flag-d-fw-home-prices
No, it can’t be! Everybody wants to live there.
Uber’s self-driving car killed a pedestrian in Arizona — company is now halting self-driving car tests
-Uber is temporarily halting self-driving car tests in all locations after a deadly accident.
-A woman was hit and killed overnight by an Uber self-driving car when walking across the street in Tempe, Arizona.
-Programs in San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Phoenix and Toronto will be paused.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/19/uber-self-driving-car-fatality-halts-testing-in-all-cities-report-says.html
Perhaps we will find it illegal to walk in the street, so that the highly automated future some envision may come to pass.
There were posters here the other day telling us about sensors that will detect robbers coming to attack a vehicle and unexpected passengers inside it…
I’d be pretty satisfied with a sensor that told it not to run over that person walking in front of it.
The moment everybody knew was coming.
This isn’t the first fatality. I don’t expect this one to be a big setback unless it exposes a major flaw. I remember something about the fatality where it ran into the truck that wasn’t moving and they said the sensors have a much harder time with avoiding things that don’t move?!?! So maybe that will turn out to be the major flaw but nobody got too excited about it before.
Bottom line is as long as the casualties per mile driven are lower than when humans are driving, I don’t think anybody is going to pull the plug.
“Bottom line is as long as the casualties per mile driven are lower than when humans are driving, I don’t think anybody is going to pull the plug.”
This is the key portion…
In response to Ben’s comment about the fact that we don’t “need” self-driving cars–that may very well be true. We didn’t “need” smart phones (the old phones were just fine). We didn’t “need” flat-screen televisions (the old ones were just fine).
…there are lots of things that we don’t “need” that are improvements to existing products, but nevertheless, plenty of new products are accepted into the market when the cost/benefit is attractive relative to the status quo. And self-driving cars have that potential–with the “status quo” being 30k+ deaths per year and injuries that are a multiple of that number. I don’t expect this tragedy to stop others in their efforts–I just hope that Uber is transparent in their findings, so others can learn.
BTW, it is instructive that there was a person behind the wheel of the car…the police say there was no signs of the car slowing. Partial autonomy seems problematic for this reason alone–humans won’t be able to step in fast enough–or reliably enough.
‘when the cost/benefit is attractive relative to the status quo’
Do tell us what one of these things costs. How about insurance? Can you get insurance on one, and if not why? Why are governments bending over backward to give these guys exemptions and corner cuts? Is it anything like how airbnb brings in lawyers and hands out money to politicians so they can break the law day after day?
And why is the public being subjected to this experiment? Can’t they bring out a functioning product from test tracks? Whatever that vehicle was doing last night could have been done just fine by a human at a fraction of the cost. And let’s see how many millions it costs them to settle. We’ll see if this much ballyhooed life saving thing works cuz it’s just made up BS at this point.
Hands up everyone that would get on a plane without a pilot.
“Hands up everyone that would get on a plane without a pilot”
You won’t get a lot of hands here on the HBB, but I’m telling you there are probably a TON of people who would get on a plane without a pilot and breathlessly post pictures of it on
Facebook or Instagram afterwards. Assuming it didn’t crash.
No pilot, but ya gotta have that stewardess to bring a refreshment and a blankie.
‘when the cost/benefit is attractive relative to the status quo’
Do tell us what one of these things costs. How about insurance? Can you get insurance on one, and if not why?
The last time we discussed this here, someone segued right into, “well, since you won’t have to own the car yourself, it will be much cheaper to just pay for it when you need it”, and I thought, how did that happen? When was it decided we would no longer individually own cars?
Driverless cars = no more ownership? No thank you to that, either. It’s funny how there’s an agenda, and a whole lot of assumptions, tied into all of this.
Driverless cars = no more ownership? No thank you to that, either. It’s funny how there’s an agenda, and a whole lot of assumptions, tied into all of this.
I haven’t had a car for 15 months now and counting. Best decision I ever made. I save so much money on insurance, gas, maintenance, and no payments. I love my eBike. I’m fine if people want to just keep paying out the wazoo to fritter their life away stuck in insane commutes and all the deprecation and headaches that come with it. I designed my new life around a job and a place to live where I can walk to everything and/or ride my bike, and I don’t live in a real urban area. One day you realize that life isn’t mean to be spent going from box to box to box, a car being one of those boxes.
To answer Ben’s question though, I lot of people who are flying essentially do turn their lives over to the algorithm since most commercial jets are essentially flying on autopilot except for take off and landing.
I have had more than one pedestrian almost step into the path of my moving car while I was being very, very alert. That’s what kept me from hitting them. It was as if they were concealing themselves behind signs, other cars, or trees and waiting until I got too close to stop, then out they jumped. Now I try to anticipate those potential hiding places & guess where the next would-be auto victim could be hiding.
In response to Ben’s comment about the fact that we don’t “need” self-driving cars–that may very well be true. We didn’t “need” smart phones (the old phones were just fine). We didn’t “need” flat-screen televisions (the old ones were just fine).
FWIW, SmartPhones do things that plain flip phones do not. They’re basically pocket computers that are also phones. Flat screen TV’s are higher res, bigger and use less power than picture tube TVs.
The only value I could possibly see in self driving cars is for elderly people who are no longer competent to drive themselves. Of course it remains to be seen if they can program the car to take where they want to go.
15 months? Boo-hoo. I spent 15+ *years* dodging hi-speed traffic, spending twice to time to get somewhere by public transit, strapping groceries into a milk crate, fending off catcallers, and riding on ice on snow. Maybe you can do it when you’re young and childless, but after that, it gets old. Very old.
Life *is* spent going from box to box. The advantage of a car is that you spend a lot less time in transit boxes, so that you have more time in the boxes, where you want to be.
I designed my new life around a job and a place to live where I can walk to everything and/or ride my bike, and I don’t live in a real urban area.
What if you want to go for a hike or skiing in the mountains? Or get away for the weekend somewhere 2-4 hrs away?
“What if you want to go for a hike or skiing in the mountains? Or get away for the weekend somewhere 2-4 hrs away?”
When we sent my daughter off to college her car stayed home in the garage so that we wouldn’t have to deal with parking, damage, repairs, etc., and she has access to ZipCar if a vehicle is needed. Cars are getting too expensive to operate and depreciate these days… better to put that money in your 401k rather than working for a car. San Francisco used to offer this lifestyle before its housing was gamed-up.
“Bottom line is as long as the casualties per mile driven are lower than when humans are driving, I don’t think anybody is going to pull the plug.”
Are they?
I’m 38, so I have fewer years than some, but more than others. I was car-less for 2 years when I was 19-21. I lived in Montreal. I was also without a car for the 1st year of university (21-22). But it became pretty clear that my entire social life was going to necessitate a car; dating where I was attending university without a car was kind of a non-starter. So my total time without a car since age 16 has been probably 6 years.
Obviously Oxide has more public transit cred than I do. But I had a 30 minute commute at my last job each way and that I considered soul crushing. I realize 30 minutes is nothing for some people, but still, that was one hour of time I was losing every day. I struggled to get my workout in and I realized that if I could trade in that one hour commute for a one hour run, I would gladly do it. I can’t even fathom these extreme commuters who are putting in 3 hours of commuting each way.
I agree with Elon Musk on public transportation: “I think public transport is painful. It sucks. Why do you want to get on something with a lot of other people, that doesn’t leave where you want it to leave, doesn’t start where you want it to start, doesn’t end where you want it to end? And it doesn’t go all the time.”
An all-public transportation doesn’t really work for many people because of how work and life is designed. The commute times are terrible and you’ll spend more time in public transportation than you will driving. And driving you can at least catch up on podcasts or listen to an audio book. No, it became really apparent to me that I would have to live as close to my work as possible. That is not possible for many people, so I consider myself quite lucky. I set out to design the life I wanted and got lucky to find a place where rent is a steal (I’ve got a deal) and I can walk to work. And there is no snow where we live.
As for hiking and skiing, that is when I rent a car. My wife, son, and I share one Honda civic. I have the eBike. It works for now. Two cars would be better, but it’s amazing how much money you can sock away when you go to one car.
The only value I could possibly see in self driving cars is for elderly people who are no longer competent to drive themselves.
For city people, dropping you off at the door and leaving and parking itself is the killer app.
Insurance costs are based on damage caused in accidents (life and property). It will take time for the actuaries to determine the actual risk of self-driving cars, and if they prove safer, they will be cheaper to insure.
Each year on the US…approximately 3.2 Trillion miles driven, about 4.5MM serious injuries (more accidents than that), and about 40k deaths.
Uber seemed quite fast and loose with their efforts…Waymo (Google) has been far more deliberate in their efforts.
Waymo has driven 4MM miles on public roads (and billions of miles in simulators), and based on the numbers above should have had at least a handful of accidents that caused serious injuries…they have not. They are now driving about a million miles every 6 months (and accelerating). As the numbers get larger, the safety of their system will be more clear.
What problem(s) are they trying to solve with self driving cars?
From Waymo’s propaganda: $594 Billion in annual harm from loss of life/injury, $277 Billion in annual economic costs.
For perspective, the annual cost of colon cancer is estimated at $100 Billion (+/-) per year.
If they can meaningfully reduce the economic harm, it would be equivalent to curing a common form of cancer…that seems like a worthy effort to me.
“Bottom line is as long as the casualties per mile driven are lower than when humans are driving, I don’t think anybody is going to pull the plug.”
Are they?
That’s what we’re being told even this early in development. Seems possible.
BTW, the ~$900B of annual cost is the US figure alone.
More on the recent Arizona pedestrian vs. self-driving car incident:
Who is liable for involuntary manslaughter in these situations? Would it be the Uber CEO, who presumably decided that self-driving cars are safe for use around pedestrians?
Housing my good friends.
Eastchester, NY Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Metro NY Housing Bubble Bursts
https://www.movoto.com/eastchester-ny/market-trends/
This is purely anecdotal, but nevertheless, I haven’t seen this in YEARS, since the last crash. From a re-listing in one of the LA markets I monitor:
“EXCLUSIVE OFFER!! SELLER AGREES TO PAY BUYER’S HOA DUES FOR ONE YEAR AFTER PURCHASE!”
Sounds desperate. It’s a flip in a 1980s high-rise, on the market for a few months, taken down and relisted. Those $2000 monthlies must really hurt. Probably scaring buyers away too, though I continue to have no idea how so many mediocre buildings get away with $2000-3000 per month fees, or how on earth people can afford it. It’s like rent on top of a mortgage!
It’s got to become an issue at some point, maybe starting now. I also saw recently in a new luxury construction listing downtown the option of self parking (skipping the building’s valet parking) in exchange for a reduced HOA monthly. Interesting.
“Safety Third” doesn’t seem so funny now.
https://jalopnik.com/safety-third-is-the-running-joke-at-ubers-self-driving-1793368132
The lawyers will claim a “culture” responsible, gotta go after the board.
Death by artificial intelligence. A few billion yellen bucks just went to money heaven.
Here’s what gets me: we don’t need this stuff. It’s just a way for some silicon valley guys to fill their pockets.
This is what Uber considers important:
http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/11/technology/uber-bozoma-saint-john-diversity/index.html
B.J.
WSJ, page 1
“The Next Real Estate Crisis: A Shortage of New Homes”
I like the map that shows building in the major metros in 2017 relative to the historic average.
By my count:
20 major metros are building 25%+ more than the long term average
13 are 0-25% more than the long-term average
32 are 0-25% less than the long-term average
40 are 25%+ less than the long-term average
Let’s wait until the latest round of self-styled real estate investors dump their HODLings en massé To decide if there is a real shortage. Canada and Oz suggest no.
I looked it up. Monmouth University is in West Long Branch, New Jersey.
“Few Americans (13%) are very familiar with the term “Deep State;” another 24% are somewhat familiar, while 63% say they are not familiar with this term. ”
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_031918/
But that ain’t the headline.
Albany, OR Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/albany-or/market-trends/
I betcha Trump is gonna sue the DOJ and its subsidiary, the FBI.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-19/trump-reportedly-hires-former-us-attorney-who-said-president-was-framed-fbi
“DiGenova has said during television appearances that a secretive group of FBI agents pulled strings to launch the Russia investigation as a way to stop Trump from becoming president.
“There was a brazen plot to illegally exonerate Hillary Clinton and, if she didn’t win the election, to then frame Donald Trump with a falsely created crime,” he said on Fox News in January. He added,
“Make no mistake about it: A group of FBI and DOJ people were trying to frame Donald Trump of a falsely created crime.”
And he would know, too. OK, so DiGenova is on board. About time, too. He needed a bulldog. So far his legal team has demonstrated a wussiness that defies belief.
Now all he needs is to get Larry Klayman appointed second Special Counsel and William K. Black hired to go after the TBTF banks. And then we’re off to the races!
You know how they make fun of white trash for putting indoor furniture on their porches?
Well, I notice the wanna-be upper crusties here in Florida do the same thing. A lot of fancy indoor type furniture on those back patios, around the pool and even around the trendy fire pits.
Of course, in those cases, it’s mostly on the back porches and patios. Generally those stucco monstrosities don’t have front porches, just a little entry way over the front door.
I’ve seen some pretty fancy outdoor furniture that looks like it could be indoor furniture from a distance. You sure it’s really indoor furniture?
It’s just what you said, outdoor furniture that looks like indoor furniture. I wuz being sarcastic.
it was such a bad attempt that we couldn’t tell…
I’ve been looking at too many homes on Zillow, lol. What I’m seeing at the higher end is a lot of staging, at least in the outdoor areas.
It just sort of struck me funny how people rag on rednecks and trailer folks for having indoor furniture and appliances outside.
So what do I see in a lot of that staging for the $400,000 and up homes? Indoor furniture and appliances outside. The appliances being the outdoor kitchen stuff like stoves and refrigerators, even a washer and dryer for towels and bathing suits.
I’m sure the owners fancy themselves far above the rednecks and trailer trash, but there it is, same idea, just different execution.
Another thing I’m seeing are prices at the higher end exceeding the Zestimates by $100,000 or more, especially on the FSBOs.
I’ve been looking at too many homes on Zillow, lol. What I’m seeing at the higher end is a lot of staging, at least in the outdoor areas.
You and me both.
So what do I see in a lot of that staging for the $400,000 and up homes? Indoor furniture and appliances outside. The appliances being the outdoor kitchen stuff like stoves and refrigerators, even a washer and dryer for towels and bathing suits.
Speaking of which, remember Ben’s rule of never open the refrigerator? I opened an outdoor poolside kitchen refrigerator at an open house and regretted it. Apparently nobody thought to check that prior to the open house. And the whole area under the sinks was a foot deep in leaves and trash.
“remember Ben’s rule of never open the refrigerator? I opened an outdoor poolside kitchen refrigerator at an open house and regretted it.”
That made me laugh like hell. Thanks for the mental image!
Ben’s story was even worse. Evidently one refrigerator was full of frozen squid(?) or seafood which had thawed and liquefied. The door fell open while the guys were hauling it and it made them very sick.
Snails. The refrigerator was full of snails. Also known by the French name “escargot”.
You must not have received your Frontgate summer catalogue yet…
$3000 outdoor coffee tables! $6000 outdoor sofas! 250 pages of them. It’s like the Architectural Digest of outdoor living. Insanity.
It’s like having a commercial kitchen setup. People drool over it and spend so much money on it to show it off to other people and then actually use it as intended maybe once or twice a year. Can you imagine how nice of parties you could throw somewhere else with all that money and never have to clean or maintain or pay interest on anything?
The same goes for second homes. There are resorts all over this country, or at least extended-stay efficiencies where you can go and have a rockin’ vacation. And you can go to a different resort each time.
The same goes for second homes.
Sure, time shares and vacation condos too for that matter.
The same goes for second homes. There are resorts all over this country, or at least extended-stay efficiencies where you can go and have a rockin’ vacation. And you can go to a different resort each time.
This is the exact argument that I used this afternoon to try to talk my father out of purchasing a vacation house in Mexico (baja California).
Might want to ask InColorado how things work in Mexico. I wouldn’t leave ANYthing empty in Mexico. Your dad will go there one day to find the addicts moved in and the copper piping moved out.
Thanks for the advice. He sent me links to the places he is considering. They all seem pretty nice, but what do I know. They are gated communities and he says that 80% of the people in these areas are actually Americans. I wouldn’t do it, but unloaded a high end condo in Vegas and is looking for a place to put this money. He said he’d rather have a get-away pad on the beach where he could spend 3 months out of the year. I tried to convince him to just plunk the money in a 5-year CD at 3.2% and AirBnB a place for a couple weeks during the winter. He thinks he can AirBnB the place out when he is not there. Like I said, he and I are worlds apart in what we think about this. But again, our wealth is also worlds apart, so not a huge deal for him. Still stupid in my opinion, but what are you going to do.
unloaded a high end condo in Vegas and is looking for a place to put this money.
OK, so it isn’t really about his favorite destination? It’s more about where to park money? That’s the problem with the bubble right there. It would be so much better to be in a sane world where he should obviously park the money in a nice mix of safe boring stocks and bonds at 6% or so and take his vacations in safe boring American locations such as Florida if he likes that sort of thing.
Totally. My favorite are the Thermador professional range ads in design magazines where all the food on display are things that don’t require a stove - cheese plates, charcuterie platters, etc. Some sales pitch.
I have noticed though that the quality of appliances in listings has gone down since the last bubble. Last time around, every other cheap apartment flip had Sub Zero and Wolf. Now I see multi-million dollar houses with appliances from Best Buy. Maybe a reflection on just how broke/leveraged people are this time around?
Maybe. My recollection of our conversations back then is that those of you who knew claimed that the current quality on Subzero and Wolf wasn’t enough to justify the price premium. Any chance the masses caught on to that?
“Similarly, Greenfield discovered that high-end kitchens—what she dubs “appliance porn”—carry an appeal across oceans, cultures, and continents. “These modern kitchens with granite counters and commercial-grade appliances used to be in the most upscale of houses,” she said. “And then, during the boom, you’d see it in a lot of middle-class homes: the stainless steel stoves and so forth.””
“Now, she said, commercial chef’s kitchens have somehow managed to become a prerequisite of homeownership. “I remember there was this one Russian woman whose husband was a real estate developer,” she said. “She had this kitchen out of Architectural Digest, and I said ‘Oh, what a beautiful kitchen. Do you cook?’ And her answer was ‘No.’””
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-19/a-look-at-the-ugly-side-of-getting-rich
These “charcuterie platters” must be new to the masses. I’d never seen the word until about a year ago; now they’re even at my local Giant (middle class grocery store).
This Old House magazine had a reader contest where you could send photos of your kitchen renovation. The prize? A three-month subscription to Hello Fresh.
“She had this kitchen out of Architectural Digest, and I said “Oh, what a beautiful kitchen. Do you cook?” And her answer was, No.”
Reminds me of a friend’s girlfriend, voluptuous almost resembling a porcelain figurine. And you can imagine the rest of the story… haha.
Putting indoor furniture outside is beyond foolish. Can you imagine the mice infestation that an indoor couch would invite?
Not to mention all the food scraps that normally fall on the floor/ground in any kitchen.
Laughing guy cracks up over McCabe’s firing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeLi1g_XyKU
“This year’s real estate spectacular has a celebrity speaker roster that includes actor Sylvester Stallone, former baseball star Alex Rodriguez and Dragons’ Den’s Manjit Minhas, while last year’s lineup featured well-known life coach Tony Robbins. A ticket for this year’s event costs anywhere between $149 to $5,995.”
Desperate circumstances foster extreme measures.
bunch of shysters selling books and dvds
Denver (Highland), CO Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Economy Weakens
https://www.zillow.com/highland-denver-co/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Is the lemming retail investors piling into the nasdaq a sign of capitulation?
It is a sign of mass stupidity.
“Still, the Wall Street brokers are making another run at the retail mullets—even trotting out high powered and ordinarily sensible market technicians like JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic—to urge one last run at buying the dip.
The first vector, of course, is the exploding structural deficit, which will come as a huge shock to Wall Street. That’s because it has been house-trained for so long on the “deficits don’t matter” mantra owing to central bank monetization that it can no longer recognize or assess relevant scale.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/21-trillion-and-counting-why-this-time-is-different-part-1/
monetize the debt!!!
Californians fed up with housing costs and taxes are fleeing state in big numbers
- More Californians are moving from the Golden State, particularly lower-income residents, although even middle-class residents are saying goodbye.
- The trend is a symptom of the state’s housing crunch and, for some, high taxes.
- Census Bureau data show California lost just over 138,000 people to domestic migration in the 12 months ended in July 2017.
- Lower-cost states such as Arizona, Texas and Nevada are popular destinations for relocating Californians.
Jeff Daniels
Published 16 Hours Ago
Updated 2 Hours Ago
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