There Were Some Unrealistic Expectations
A report from Radio Australia. “Less than a decade ago this coastal Queensland town was on property investors’ wish lists, but today 80 per cent of homes are selling at a loss. Young couple Philip and Aleisha bought their first home in Gladstone in 2012, when their central Queensland town was still high on an unprecedented LNG construction boom. Philip and Aleisha had some reservations about buying during the boom — but Philip was earning good money as a tradie and they wanted to start a family. Their four-bedroom home in one of Gladstone’s newly built housing estates cost them $650,000. ‘We wanted to bring our children up somewhere we owned. A place where we could do up their bedrooms, paint rooms, and make it nice for the kids,’ Philip said.”
“Six years later, Gladstone’s mining boom is over, the work’s dried up, the property market is oversaturated with brand new homes, and rental prices have plummeted. Philip and Aleisha’s home is worth less than $450,000. ‘We were expecting to take a bit of a hit but we didn’t expect that,’ Philip said. ‘I guess I blame myself to an extent.’”
“The property market has also sent Philip’s mother into the red. Jenny White bought an older-style house for $310,000 in 2015 with her then-partner, but had to put it back on the market less than a year later when the marriage broke up. She was only working a casual retail job and didn’t know how to make ends meet. ‘In the end the bank said to me, you’ve got two options: you pay it or you give us the keys. And I couldn’t pay it, so I just had to give them the keys,’ Ms White said.”
“It got worse when the repossessed house only sold for $170,000, meaning that Ms White still owed the bank a big chunk of money. Last year, after staving off debtors and living on credit cards, she declared bankruptcy. ‘It still makes me emotional now to think at 53 years old and I don’t have a car and I don’t have a house. I have a lounge suite, two display cupboards, and a coffee table and that’s all I own now at 53,’ she said. ‘I’m mad with the banks that they just seem to lend to so many people, and allow so many houses to be built, and the developers were joining in with so much money in town.’”
“Melbourne-based property investor David spent $1.2 million on two Gladstone homes in 2012. His father also bought two, and so did his uncle. They were getting rents over $1,000 per house during the boom, but now they would be lucky to get a few hundred. The dud Gladstone investment has seen David sell off the rest of his property portfolio, move into a sharehouse, and his relationship has broken down under the stress.”
“‘We just got caught up in the hype of it all,’ David said. ‘I don’t expect much sympathy. I took a risk and it didn’t pay off. The reason I’m sharing my story is in the hope somebody can learn from my experience if they’re over-extending their investments,’ he said.”
From ABC News. “Investors in Perth property are faring the worst in the nation, making more losses on resale than buyers in any other capital city. A report from CoreLogic shows one-third of investors in Perth property lost money on resale in the December quarter. The figure of 33.6 per cent was equal with Darwin as the highest proportion of loss-making resales nationally. In regional WA, the situation was even worse — 47.5 per cent of resales by investors made a loss in the quarter.”
“Owner-occupiers also made greater losses in regional WA than anywhere else, with those in Perth second only to Darwin in loss-making sales. ‘Investors generally are more prepared to take on a loss on their property ownership, probably because of some of the tax implications,’ said CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless. ‘For owner-occupiers, you generally find about 52 per cent of household wealth is held in housing. Transacting at a loss is a much harder decision [for owner-occupiers].’”
From Mirage News. “While the Sydney and Melbourne market go flat, all eyes are turned towards Perth which many are tipping as the ‘next big thing’ in the investment property market. But are all the promises of potential property profits to be believed? RiskWise Property Research CEO Doron Peleg thinks not. ‘It is the risk associated with units in Perth that is of the greatest concern as this is very high due not only to current oversupply, but also the number of units in the development pipeline. The Perth unit market is facing severe ongoing oversupply. For example, in central Perth there are 1151 new units in the pipeline representing a 13.7 per cent increase to the existing supply,’ he said.”
From Domain News. “Melbourne homeowners selling at auction need to be more realistic about their price expectations, experts say, as auction clearance rates drop below 70 per cent. Since early February this year, clearance rates for houses in Victoria had fluctuated between 59 and 67 per cent, compared with 72 and 83 per cent at the same time last year, according to Domain Group data. Among the worst performing areas were the inner south, where clearance rates dropped to 43 per cent in mid-March, down from 93 per cent in the same week last year, and the south east which dropped to 47 per cent in late-February – down from 83 per cent.”
“Crackdowns on investor lending, slow wage growth and high household debt contributed to the softening of the auction market, Bank of Melbourne senior economist Janu Chan said. ‘It’s no surprise that Melbourne’s been one of the capital cities affected because investors were quite active in the Melbourne housing market,’ Ms Chan said. ‘When the housing market was running really hot, there perhaps were some unrealistic expectations there.’”
“Real Estate Institute of Victoria president Richard Simpson said once the clearance rate dropped below 70 per cent, it was more a buyers’ market than a sellers’ market. ‘What we’ll have to see is vendors change their expectations in relation to price,’ Mr Simpson said. ‘They’re still thinking about the prices that were achieved in the past six months and they’re not going to be achieved in this current six month period.’”
From the Australian Financial Review. “Australian credit curbs and tighter controls on getting funds out of China are forcing apartment developers to work closely with their buyers to help them settle. Developer Poly Australia classes 7 per cent of the apartments sold to China-based buyers in its 501-unit Poly Horizon project in Sydney’s Epping as ‘high risk’ and has had 50 buyers resell apartments they had bought prior to settlement.”
“While it was easy to sell and settle units in a boom time, a slowdown in the market and difficulties faced by some buyers meant developers had to work with them, said Poly Australia sales director Jay Carter. Settlement in Poly Horizon is due in June and the company started contacting buyers from June last year, Mr Carter said. ”
“‘We’re shaking the tree and saying to people ‘Get ready for settlement, don’t forget you’ve got an obligation here,’ Mr Carter told The Australian Financial Review. ‘This isn’t a panic situation. All the developers are going down this path of trying to make sure their settlements are on track. Settlement risks are a concern for every developer and we all need to proactively manage it.’”
“The changed financial environment for buyers – about 20 per cent of Poly Horizon units were sold to overseas China-based purchasers – coincides with the peak of completions in Australia’s biggest-ever housing construction boom. Poly Australia was also working with substitute buyers of the 50 apartments that buyers had already onsold, he said. Of those resales, between 10 and 15 were caused by personal circumstances, while the remainder were buyers who had been caught out by either APRA-inspired restrictions on finance to overseas buyers or by Chinese changes hindering people from getting funds out of the country, Mr Carter said. ”
“Most of the original buyers who had onsold their units had not suffered losses because the apartments had gained in value, he said. ‘They’ve been able to do that without too much of an issue because there’s been a capital growth in them,’ he said. ‘It might be an issue if they’d entered into a contract at the beginning of 2017.’”
‘They’ve been able to do that without too much of an issue because there’s been a capital growth in them,’ he said. ‘It might be an issue if they’d entered into a contract at the beginning of 2017.’
Keep shaking that tree Jay.
‘in central Perth there are 1151 new units in the pipeline representing a 13.7 per cent increase to the existing supply’
Yep, they are still sending yellen bucks to money heaven.
‘We just got caught up in the hype of it all,’ David said. ‘I don’t expect much sympathy.’
Gosh David, that’s a good thing.
Yep, they are still sending yellen bucks to money heaven.
In Oz’s case they’re Phillip Lowe (the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia) bucks.
Lorton, VA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As Fairfax County Housing Inventory Skyrockets
https://www.zillow.com/lorton-va/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
but Philip was earning good money as a tradie
Had to look that up. It’s Aussie for “tradesman.” It’s an ok living if the work doesn’t dry up. But not for a $650K house! ($500K in US dollars)
Lol, and a “ute” is a SUV (short for utility vehicle).
The two utes…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hu8tX2BAD1k
Wait til it drops to $150k.
Australian English is full of amusing verbal shorthand like that. I took a couple of vacations to Australia as a younger man and hope to return someday, although there’s simply no way I’ll be able to consume as much beer as before.
Aussies give everything nicknames, ending either in ‘ie’ or ‘ey’ or ‘o’. So barbeque is barbie, an american is a seppo (from septic tank, tank rhymes with yank - hey, it probably made sense at the time after 14 beers). They do this with proper names too. I assume its because everything on that rock is trying to kill them and you need to develop some sense of humor born out of an insane form of optimism and perhaps survivor’s guilt.
Two years ago when I was there a lot of the guys I surfed with were tradies (who like to set their hours around the ocean) and the bubble was still in full bloom. They should have never let this bubble come to their shores - they had a good life already. I dig their bowling clubs - I’ve been looking for an excuse to dress like a pimp in all whites.
LOL about the beer consumption. It is not an abstemious country. Looking at my trips, I hadn’t drunk that much beer since I was a fraternity pledge in college. And quite a bit of it was purchased for me, by friendly and sociable locals everywhere I went.
When I first visited, I landed in Sydney, cleared customs, and took a domestic flight to Melbourne. It was 8:00 a.m., and I sat in the front part of the plane. It was loud behind me once the beverage cart went by. After the plane landed, I saw one of the flight attendants toting a plastic bag full of empty beer cans.
I actually thought that “tradie” was short for “trader,” thinking that the guy had a job on an Aussie commodity exchange or something similar. How else could he afford a house at that price? But then, financial trade work doesn’t really dry up. I wonder which trade he was? He probably isn’t a plumbie or an electrie or they would have specified. Paintie? Drywallo? Stoney?
Regardless, he did it for the kids. Kids they didn’t have.
$500K for a house in one of the least densely populated countries in the world.
Apparently it is still a penal colony.
“Investors in Perth property are faring the worst in the nation,”
I had to look at that twice, because the first time I read it as “farking”.
Sigh. Having a strange day. It’s Jeff Flake’s fault. What’s with the nose?
“Jeff Flake”
What’s up with AZ and RINOs?
Ben explained the politics and money of it one time when I wuz moaning about John McCain.
No doubt Flake is a major cuck as well as a RINO, but in his case Trump missed an opportunity to swing the guy over to his side. I forget what the issue was, but Flake did support Trump on something or other and it was kind of a big thing for him to do.
As I recall, Trump later blindsided him with a twitter insult on something unrelated which was probably inspired by a bit of pandering to the base.
As much as I dislike the cuck RINOs such as Flake, he did make a concession to Trump and this is where Trump could have turned on the charm and brought the guy into the fold. Instead, he made an enemy. Flake now plans on retiring, because he knows he won’t get the Trump base. But he’s going down fighting, floating trial balloons about running for President (Why would he do that if he can’t get re-elected in AZ? Just to piss off Trump) and threatening Trump with impeachment if he fires Mueller.
The dynamics of this whole thing are interesting. Flake is one of those spineless cucks who do the bidding of his donors and lectures his constituents, all the while with a phony, smug smile plastered on his face, murmuring cliches like “that’s not who we are” and pretending to be serenely above it all. Which amounts to being all smiles with fists full of vaseline, much like Obama. Trump has busted through that pose and brought him up to a level of anger, which is actually a higher emotional state than being a snake in the grass.
Instead of hiding the knife behind his back, Flake now brandishes it in front of him toward Trump. And that’s healthier, putting it all out in the open.
OTOH, what Flake and many others don’t realize is that Trump always wins. Always. Even when he loses, he wins. Darnedest thing I’ve ever seen.
Anyway, Trump IS going to fire Mueller, any minute now. And that’s when we’ll see all the ta-rah-diddle. I DARE the Republicans in Congress to just try it, because that will be the end of the Republican party, no question.
“Even when he loses, he wins.”
He’s a guy who knows how to argue about money. His entire adult life has been job meetings and getting sh•t built(job meetings are all about arguing about money and assigning action items). I’d give an arm and left nut to go to one of his multi-prime job meetings. It has to be a doozy.
Yep. It’s not easy to get stuff done in New York and New Jersey, but he did it. On time and under budget, or so he says. I believe it. Wouldn’t mind going to one of those meetings myself.
Went to more than a few job meetings back in the day in South Florida. Most of them were fairly civil. We subbed a couple of MCM’s jobs, which is why the FIU bridge collapse got my attention. I was surprised, quite frankly. MCM used to be pretty good. Paid on time, too.
‘Dallas-area starter home drought is hammering first time buyers’
‘That’s because there are only about 1,000 starter homes listed for sale with local real estate agents, according to a new report by Trulia.
Less than 8 percent of local homes on the market have a median price of less than $150,000 - the prime cost range for starter houses, Trulia analysts say.’
‘the median list price of the lowest cost starter homes in the area shot up by almost 23 percent, Trulia found. Median prices for starter houses in the Dallas area have almost doubled in the last five years, the real estate analysts found.
Median list prices of the most expensive “premium” houses in the Dallas area actually fell by 2.3 percent in 2017.’
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2018/03/21/dallas-area-starter-home-drought-hammering-first-time-buyers
It is the tale of two markets in many places. Properties on the low end have done well while the $400k + properties have not.
I was talking to someone who is selling a house they bought several years ago for $2M. They said they should have bought 10 $200k homes instead of their one $2M home.
“First time homebuyers won’t catch a break from the Dallas-area’s hot home market this spring.”
“That’s because there are only about 1,000 starter homes listed for sale with local real estate agents, according to a new report by Trulia.”
If I had to guess I would say that’s because there are about 10,000 - 50,000 starter homes priced and listed as move up homes in the Dallas-area’s hot home market this spring and the 1,000 starter homes listed for sale are in the Hood.
If I had to guess I would say that’s because there are about 10,000 - 50,000 starter homes priced and listed as move up homes in the Dallas-area’s hot home market this spring and the 1,000 starter homes listed for sale are in the Hood.
Exactly. And whoever owns those homes at the moment that everyone has to acknowledge they are just starter homes is going to be in serious pain.
Donk…. I think Jeff accurately identified the problem below.
blockquote>“here are about 10,000 - 50,000 starter homes priced and listed as move up homes in the Dallas-area’s hot home market this spring and the 1,000 starter homes listed for sale are in the Hood.”,/i>
Possibly those starter homes are condos, while the move-up homes are 3/1.5 ranch and split-lelvel SFH, i.e. what used to be starter homes in the 50s-80s.
Also take into account that the older former starter homes are closer to downtown and are now priced as move-up by virtue of their location.
“Starter homes, however, have borne the brunt of the rise in home prices and decreases in inventory.”
Could it be that those starter homes are being bid up a little by Millenials who can afford a move-up house but still want to live below their means? Or, their version of “keeping up with the Jones’s” is actually being *more* minimalist, not buying more stuff. For them, 1000 sq ft 3/1.5 is just fine.
It is the tale of two markets in many places. Properties on the low end have done well while the $400k + properties have not.
Funny how builders never stopped to ask “Can anyone afford these houses we’re building?”
It’s the one thing that really stands out in bubble 2.0. No one is building smaller, plain vanilla houses this time around. A few thousand were built in my little burg during bubble 1.0, but almost none now.
I suppose that even builders suffer from FOMO. The temptation to build expensive houses with high profit margins was just too tantalizing to pass up. Not unlike automakers focusing on high margin pickups. Why sell a hatchback for a $1000 profit when you can sell pickups with a 20K profit ?
Other than sq footage and lot size, there is no account for inflated prices. “High margin” is code language for some type of fraud.
Austin(Barton Hills), TX Housing Prices Crater 25% YOY As Builders Flood Market With New Inventory
https://www.zillow.com/barton-hills-austin-tx/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
‘It still makes me emotional now to think at 53 years old and I don’t have a car and I don’t have a house. I have a lounge suite, two display cupboards, and a coffee table and that’s all I own now at 53’
It’s good to take stock of all that you have in life and be grateful Jenny.
‘I’m mad with the banks that they just seem to lend to so many people, and allow so many houses to be built, and the developers were joining in with so much money in town’
Oh brother, the old “they should have never made these loans” line. Coming right at you Mel Watt.
‘It still makes me emotional now to think at 53 years old and I don’t have a car and I don’t have a house. I have a lounge suite, two display cupboards, and a coffee table and that’s all I own now at 53’
This is an outrage! Why is it that she gets to have a lounge suite, two (count ‘em) display cupboards, and a coffee table! Why?
Obviously somebody is not doing their job.
Ouch! Savage.
“”I come home [from Brisbane] and the girls have grown up. I’m missing stages of them growing up,” Philip said.”
This is important. Don’t be a hostage.
Never having been in this situation maybe it’s easy to say, but my advice is to follow your Mom’s example:
#justgivethemthekeys
And file for BK when the bank comes for the balance after selling the house.
They’re young, they can start over, hopefully a little wiser. Not sure how long a BK stays on your record in Oz.
Realtors are liars.
If you see a realtor, go inside and lock your doors and call the authorities immediately.
fair to say?
even though some farm indexes ,MOO , VEGI are coming back farm land prices never dropped as much as they should
I can’t find any bargains in any sector
I had to look that up. My god, there actually *is* a MOO fund and a VEGI fund! Are you a trader or something?
Potomac Falls, VA Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As Northern Virgina Land Prices Plunge
https://www.movoto.com/potomac-falls-va/market-trends/
Perth used to be quite popular with ex-pat, non-Afrikaaner white South Africans, as it geographically is the closest major Australian city to South Africa. Last I read, though, the “packing for Perth” phenomenon was in remission. Do we have any South African readers here?
https://www.thesouthafrican.com/packing-for-perth/
Any white who stays in South Africa is asking for it. The farm confiscations are just the beginning. We talk about retirement savings being confiscated in the US to pay .gov’s bills, I can see such confiscation, and worse, happening in SA. It’s the next Venezuela/Zimbabwe. The West will prop it up, until it can’t.
That said, I can understand people’s reluctance to leave, especially if they have a profitable business in SA and that moving would mean starting over from scratch. But I am convinced that whatever they still have in South Africa will eventually be taken away.
“But I am convinced that whatever they still have in South Africa will eventually be taken away.”
Agreed. I am surprised at our MSM’s reticence regarding SA.
‘They’re still thinking about the prices that were achieved in the past six months and they’re not going to be achieved in this current six month period.’
‘It might be an issue if they’d entered into a contract at the beginning of 2017.’
In Melbourne and Sydney, the UHS will still say prices have only “moderated” and are going up by 5 or 10%. Somebody is a lion.
“Would You Bet $250,000 That A Realtor Lied?”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/would-you-bet-250000-that-a-realtor-lied/
Somebody is a lion.
There’s an RE agency here in town that puts their name “LYON” in big red letters on all their signs. I have to laugh when I see it.
that is from mike lyon who was charged with recording people in bathrooms in homes. google him, total perv.
http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/crime/article130217629.html
Apollo Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 33% YOY As Vacation Property Market Fundamentals Deteriorate
https://www.movoto.com/apollo-beach-fl/market-trends/
some countires produce and others inflate assets for to substitute for real economic growth.
‘Their four-bedroom home in one of Gladstone’s newly built housing estates cost them $650,000. ‘We wanted to bring our children up somewhere we owned. A place where we could do up their bedrooms, paint rooms’
Ah yes, the old “paint the rooms” thing.
our society makes renters feel sub human.
I always laugh at those comments. We painted all the rooms in our rental. And installed new ceiling fans, and generally did what we wanted, short of moving walls and destroying the place.
Most landlords don’t give a sh*t what color the walls are, or whether you feed the squirrels. They want the place left in a condition that doesn’t cost more than your security deposit to get ready for the next tenant, and your rent check to arrive on time each month (and not bounce).
Summerville man awarded more than $1.25 million after dead tree falls on truck at traffic light
“The pickup driver’s attorneys argued it is the property owner’s responsibility, not the tenant’s, under South Carolina law to inspect and take care of trees that could present a danger in heavily populated areas such as the town of Summerville.”
Ah yes, the old “paint the rooms” thing.
Speaking of which I noticed that a perk the top local apartment complex is offering is that they will paint accent walls for you before you move in and you get to select the color from their list of choices. And they seemed to be VERY pet friendly compared to what I’m used to seeing.
Once there’s massive vacancies and a war to get tenants, anything goes. “Bring as many pets as you want, paint whatever you want, just give us the money because we’re hemorrhaging cash and are about to go broke.”
They’ll probably go broke anyway as rents collapse.
At the moment their vacancy list isn’t that big (at least what they publish as available for move in within the next month) but they seemed to be anticipating a lot of turnover as the school year ends. And their pricing structure for different lengths of leases rewarded people for ending their lease any time BUT early summer.
This place is right across the street from the biggest tech employer in the area and is the only apartment complex NOT jerrymandered out of the best local elementary school automatic enrollment zone, so I would expect them to survive longer than everyone else UNLESS that employer cuts a bunch of H1Bs.
Newcastle, WA Housing Prices Crater 26% YOY As Record High Seattle Area Housing Inventory Hits Market
https://www.movoto.com/newcastle-wa/market-trends/
So, they released the Uber crash video:
http://www.azfamily.com/story/37780362/tempe-pd-releases-video-of-moments-before-self-driving-uber-hit-killed-pedestrian
1. The “safety” person who was supposed to take over wasn’t paying attention.
2. The person did walk out of a shadow…but was not hiding behind a bush before walking into the street…the person was already in the road (in the other lane), walking across the street when coming out of the shadows. From the time you can see the person to the time they are hit, there is about 2 seconds, max. If I were driving, I may not have been able to avoid hitting the person, but if I was carefully paying attention I may have braked, and swerved to the right. But 2 seconds isn’t long to react. You had to react within a second to probably make much of a difference.
3. WTF…”Lidar” was supposed to be able to see better in the dark, and see 300 yards in all directions (or perhaps that’s Waymo’s line). If so, the sensors (if functioning correctly) should have seen this person long before hitting them. The person wasn’t running across the street, or wearing an outfit to make them look like anything other than a person…the obvious shape of a person and a bicycle.
Seems like a human driver may not have done any better, and a self-driving car SHOULD have been able to avoid this accident. If self-driving cars can’t do better than people, why again are we doing this?
I was trying to see if Waymo has had a response to the accident yet…and saw the following commentary in an article regarding the difference between Waymo’s approach and that which was pushed by Levandowski (former Google employee, turned head of self-driving cars for Uber).
““We don’t need redundant brakes & steering, or a fancy new car, we need better software,” then-Google engineer Anthony Levandowski wrote in an email to Larry Page in January 2016. “To get to that better software faster we should deploy the first 1000 cars asap. I don’t understand why we are not doing that. Part of our team seems to be afraid to ship.” Shortly thereafter, Levandowski would leave to found his own self-driving trucking company, which was quickly acquired by Uber.
……..
During the trial in February, lawyers for Waymo — the rebranded Google self-driving car project — painted a picture of a problem employee who clashed with his new boss over his slower, more cautious approach to self-driving cars. Waymo CEO John Krafcik said that Levandowski had vehemently held that redundant systems for steering and braking were unnecessary. “I think it’s fair to say we had different points of view on safety,” said Krafcik in court.
……..
“The team is not moving fast enough due to a combination of risk aversion and lack of urgency, we need to move faster,” Levandowski told Page in another communication that was shown during the Waymo trial.
His messages to Travis Kalanick were more casual. “We need to think through the strategy, to take all the shortcuts we can find,” he said in one text message. And in another, “I just see this as a race and we need to win, second place is first looser [sic].””
In San Jose the homeless drifters routinely jaywalk in front of nicer cars that are likely insured, the captive (too much to lose) drivers patiently brake for them. These driverless cars might solve the problem.
In my area, people (ahem guest workers) run across major, multi-lane streets ALL THE TIME because they are racing to catch the bus on the other side. I see this all the time on my morning commute, when it’s dark. Later in the day it’s mommies with strollers. In a few places, the cities had to erect fences in the medians just to force people to go to the crosswalk first.
Maybe the sensors were damaged because somebody ran the car through the carwash.
“To get to that better software faster we should deploy the first 1000 cars asap.
This is very nearly a criminal statement in itself. This guy willfully planned to deploy deadly vehicles with inadequate software onto the public roads, as an experiment.
The FDA has shut businesses down for lesser offenses.
But yeah, we’re gonna have driverless cars shoved down our throats and I’ll also bet it will become MUCH harder to get or renew a DL in the future, and if you can get one it will be easier for .gov to suspend it for a minor infraction.
So the public roads will cleansed for corporate use?
There are worse comments out there (that have been denied):
“New York Magazine once attributed Levandowski as saying, “I’m pissed we didn’t have the first death,” to a group of Uber engineers after a driver died in a Tesla on autopilot in 2016. (Levandowski has denied ever saying it).”
Uber is now talking about how with new leadership, safety is at the core of what they do, blah, blah, blah.
But if the head of their self-driving cars left Waymo in 2016, in part because he didn’t give a crap about safety…which inherently goes into the design of the cars, and Uber didn’t do a complete redesign before continuing with cars on the road, that seems to be a problem.
In my area, people (ahem guest workers) run across major, multi-lane streets ALL THE TIME
Very common in China too. It’s like dodging deer in the USA until you learn that no matter how wide and empty the street happens to be at that moment you can’t drive like you’re in the USA. My wife noted that I (and other Americans in China) drive like I assume people will obey the law. Oops.
When I was 15 and learning to drive I almost ran some kid over when his family darted across the street. We were in a heavy (ahem “people with out documentation”) area of Santa Ana, CA.
Scared the crap out of me. Now I know to assume people will dart in to traffic even with oncoming traffic.
Today’s biggest winners are …
(ta da)
Bankers!
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-21/todays-biggest-winner-banks-get-extra-5-billion-interest-fed
Pukes work, bankers reap. As always.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Mortgage debt as percentage of GDP continues to decline.
Carmichael, CA Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Mortgage Defaults Mount
https://www.movoto.com/carmichael-ca/market-trends/
Tarara Boomdea, you out there? Proof of life, please. Let us know how you are doing with the rental wars.
My best to you.
Hey Palmetto,
I’m here, just a bit down. Too many years of constant stress. We caved on the rent. The prop mgr is a master of passive aggressiveness and didn’t answer my messages of protest. My husband said to hell with it, we’ll just leave here when the lease is up.
Got a neighbor sending me profanity filled messages about tootsie rolls in her garden, so now I have to keep the cats in. (Stupid bitch is so obsessed with her patch of dirt she trims her lawn with scissors.) I hate arguing with someone when I’m wrong, and I am. Now the little morons have cabin fever and are trying to kill each other. She is a good reminder of the merits of renting (we can leave), but the BS you have to endure has taken its toll.
So I see by your name change something is not being taken care of? Our jerk LL hasn’t even provided screens for all the windows, so I’m going to have to get some so we can get some air without letting the cats out. Aggravating.
Tboom
Perhaps your neighbor would compromise and give you permission to police her garden daily with a pooper scooper.
I would, but I think that ship has sailed. I gave her super soakers, cans of compressed air, offered to buy electronic devices, automatic water sprays - I doubt she tried them. I think it’s more that she’s a busybody and a control freak. When we first got here, I’d talk to her occasionally. She never smiles and seems humorless. She told me she patrols the neighborhood at night. She wanted to know who the man is that comes to the house (he was my mother’s physical therapist). She also messaged me to say she hoped I was taking good care of the rental “because they worked so hard on it.” She’s nuts and I’d prefer to stay away from her.
I wouldn’t have even bothered if I had known they don’t allow cats to roam here. There are plenty wandering around. I was so preoccupied, I never checked. It’s the law so I have to keep them in.
Tboom, thanks for responding. So, what, another year and then move on? I am really sorry about all the stress, I know what that can be like. Lol on the tootsie rolls, cats will be cats, but I can understand the neighbor’s point of view. Blue Skye’s recommendation has a bit of merit, perhaps you can make a deal.
I’m using this moniker temporarily, I will revert back to palmetto when the main repairs are done. Interesting coincidence, as soon as I started posting under this handle, a home repair guy showed up and started handling one of the situations, so that’s good.
Stay strong and try to find something to bring the spirits up.
Yer friend, palmetto, AKA Deferred Maintenance
Hi palmetto
We’ll probably move. I don’t think we’ll have a choice (again). If the market turns, they won’t offer an extension on the lease.
The last year and a half have been a trip (literally). I fell and broke my arm. My knees were shot from my daughter accidentally tripping me years ago while running, so I had them both replaced a few months before my mother died. Still had to take care of her; that was very hard. I had cataracts, didn’t know it. Other stuff. Now, I’m ooooookay.
Thanks, and glad your repair guy showed up.
“Too many years of constant stress.”
Geez Tboom
Seems like you’ve had more than your share.
While I am not claiming anything, a long time ago I did a goal writing thing very similar to the one below. (I think the Harvard study got me to do it)
At the time my wife, myself and 3 small kids lived in a 2/2 side of a duplex. One of my goals was to live in a 4/2 with a pool. I had some beat up trucks, a struggling business with material bills in 90 days etc.
I put it in a dresser drawer and forgot about it until about 1 1/2 years later when my wife found it while packing to move to a 4/2 home with a pool. I had new trucks, discounted material bills and money in the bank.
Was it the written goals or just the hard work? I had worked just as hard if not harder the years before.
If I did it again (which I might, haven’t thought about in years) I would keep the goals very specific, the first 4/2 with the pool was a rental.
As some of you know I had very specific criteria for buying a house (No HOA, City water, CBS, hip roof) and that is the house I own today.
So Tboom I’m not saying it works, but it couldn’t hurt.
You hang in there.
5 Reasons Why Writing Down Goals Increases The Odds Of Achieving Them
1. Figure out your goals.
- Where do you want to live? How do you imagine your ideal house?
https://www.elitedaily.com/money/writing-down-your-goals/1068863
Hey jeff,
I might try something along those lines. My daughter just signed up with the state’s vocational rehabilitation services to get work. Her mild Aspergers and sensory difficulties make interviewing tough, though she did get a job two weeks ago that seems to be working out. I want her to see if she could get something better. While we were there, the woman who she saw said I should come in and they’d see what they could do for me, so I will. Thanks for the link; I will check it out.
T
Today in Boise at my favorite dive bar there was a couple who came in an ordered a Manhattan and Old Fashion. Ashley the bartender had no clue how to make them, it’s a dive bar. Who orders that in a dive bar? I looked the recipes up online and told her. I visited with these people they just moved here from New York then I told Ashley if they ask for those drinks again tell them to go downtown to Bardany, Chandlers or some place high end. She agreed and gave me a free drink 🍸And there was this kid who was there a week ago telling me “do you remember me” yes I did you’re the guy from California who is so into yourself. I ignored him, I think he was upset 😡. Moral of the story is don’t glorify people moving from out of state!
came in an ordered a Manhattan and Old Fashion
Shortly after I moved to Mass. in 1967 I ordered a “milk shake” at an ice cream store there. The soda jerk had a puzzled look on his face, but he dutifully poured a carton of milk into a shaker, shook it up and poured it into a glass for me. I knew I had made a mistake. After enquiries I learned that at the time people in Mass. called milk shakes “frappes”. To this day if you order a “regular coffee” in a regular Mass. restaurant you will get coffee with cream already added.
Around here a “pop” is a soda. In Boston it’s a shot of whiskey. In New Orleans all soda is a “coke” and if you ask for a pop you are in trouble.
I have heard you can get scrod in Boston.
Ha!
Ugh.. Hate those kind of people. Order what’s appropriate for the establishment you are in.
Even worse is the people that do it when the bar is clearly busy or about to close. When I lived in Hawaii and closing time was 4am, I would hang out with my buddy in the DJ booth at the club he worked at and people watch. You’d get these girls coming in after 3 and order all sorts of complex drinks.
Nope. You get 1 alcohol and 1 mixer, a shot, or a beer.
“If this accumulated Treasury debt is supposed to be permanent, then it is reasonable to expect that the corresponding supply of new money would also be permanent and would remain in the economy as either cash in circulation or bank reserves, Andolfatto and Li write. As the interest earned on the securities is remitted to the Treasury, the federal government essentially can borrow and spend this new money for free. Thus, under this scenario, money creation becomes a permanent source of financing for government spending.
On the other hand, if the Fed’s recent increase in Treasury debt holdings is only temporary (an unusually large acquisition in response to an unusually large recession), then the public must expect that the monetary base at some point will return to a more normal level, with the Fed selling the securities or letting them mature without replacing them. Under this scenario, the Fed is not monetizing government debt;it is simply managing the supply of the monetary base in accordance with the goals set by its dual mandate. Some means other than money creation will be needed to finance the Treasury debt returned to the public through open market sales.”
https://mises.org/wire/no-fed-doesnt-have-plan-yes-fed-really-monetizing-government-debt
Its only temporary people.
This was an interesting Bloomberg take on central banks’ lack of a working theory on inflation:
“The Fed, in other words, is driving blind. Daniel Tarullo, in a tell-all address at the Brookings Institution in October after his resignation from the Fed’s Board of Governors, said, “We do not, at present, have a theory of inflation dynamics that works sufficiently well to be of use for the business of real-time monetary policymaking.”
“Many of the people asking the sharpest questions about the Fed’s thinking on inflation aren’t anointed doctors of economics. An extreme example of the self-taught econ skeptic is Matt Busigin, who dropped out of high school at 15 but has managed to have a dual career as a software engineer in Buffalo and a portfolio manager for Los Angeles-based New River Investments Inc. Running tests on 20 years’ worth of data, he found a negative correlation between increases in the Fed’s base money and future inflation: When one rises, the other falls, and vice versa. Theory predicts a positive correlation.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-22/the-great-inflation-mystery
I don’t know what to make about inflation. It seems like we have had asset inflation, but I’m surprised we haven’t had more goods inflation. We have definitely had services inflation. Quite often when I have been most concerned with inflation, there has been none. Admittedly, I am not very much now concerned by inflation. Judging by my past experience, that would mean that inflation is just around the corner. Like my good friend once said, “If you want to be a great investor, just ask me what I’m doing at the moment and then do the complete opposite.”
But that principle is now being second-guessed as well. At the Fed’s exclusive annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., which draws some of the world’s most influential policymakers, several prominent economists argued that the Fed should maintain a large balance sheet indefinitely. The idea has the backing of Bernanke, who recently questioned Yellen’s continuing support for the exit strategy outlined two years ago.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/19/the-federal-reserve-confronts-a-possibility-it-never-expected-no-exit/?utm_term=.636218070eeb#comments
it will be a miracle if the balance sheet ever goes back to zero.
it will be a miracle if the balance sheet ever goes back to zero.
When was the last time the Fed balance sheet was at zero? Ever?
It will be a miracle if it gets below $1 Trillion.
“What happens instead is that central banks will continue to buy governmental debt, put it in their vaults and never look at it again. They are perfectly aware that selling of so many bonds will cause a crash in the debt market. Furthermore, central banks pay the interest they earn on the bonds back to the governments that sold these bonds in the first place.
To put this bluntly: the more debt is bought from governments by central banks, the more government debt goes down. This seems like an ideal solution for governments facing huge debt levels: they can simply sell their debt to the central bank and forget about it. As of now, around 25% of all government debt is stored away on central banks’ balance sheets. In the US it is as high as 50%. Most likely, this debt will never come back into the market again. ”
http://foresightinvestor.com/articles/968259-the-impact-of-debt-monetization
so what happens when govt’s actually control the economy with money from central banks?
What a loadacrap.
Oops, not the article, the process described.
Actually it is a work of art.
This is how the central bank will eventually own everything.
Rather amazing, isn’t it?
The amazing part is getting everyone to beg you to do it.
“Our ‘innovation’ here is to suggest that central banks will invite fiscal spending by announcing that their balance sheets will stay expanded permanently, or almost equivalently, be reduced only under extreme circumstances, and that they anticipate additional permanent expansion if targets are missed. Effectively this eliminates the government debt from the balance sheet, since any coupon payments on the debt are remitted back to the government via central bank profits. Literally the government is paying itself, which is not a bad deal if you can manage it. Many central banks are forbidden to monetize government debt, but governments will understand that permanent balance sheet expansion is an invitation to spend more, opening the fiscal channel.”
Or to summarise, we’re now at zero forever and then some.”
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/09/23/2140625/a-wink-and-a-nod-later-and-the-debt-is-monetised/
Is scrod available your area?
Castlerock, CO Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/castle-rock-co/market-trends/
if you think the central bank balance sheet will ever go back to zero or normal I have some ocean front property in AZ for you.
Current demographic fact: fewer babies and longer lifespans, which means lower wages and higher taxes going forward. Rising rates of obesity accompanied by dialysis and diabetes means higher health care insurance premiums too.
Like the article I posted here a few days ago, Toys R Us closing is a harbinger of things to come. A main cause for the shut down was a lack of babies. This demographic trend could ripple out to broad aspects of the larger economy in another 10-20 years.
This was a long-time coming. Toys R Us’s decline started with WalMart and Target gaining toy market share from them starting in the 1990s. Demographics has nothing to do with it.
Walmart, Target, and Amazon were all parts of Toys R Us’s problems. But even Toys R Us has admitted that they had a baby problem. This has been reported in numerous outlets:
“There are endless reasons a big-box toy store would collapse during a retail apocalypse — and Toys R Us acknowledged a number of them in its most recent annual filing: the teetering tower of debt incurred by its private-equity owners, competition from Amazon, Walmart and Target.
They even wrung their hands about app stores, labor costs and potential tariffs raising the costs of the imported goods they sell.”
But one risk stood out. Toys R Us said there just weren’t enough babies (emphasis ours):
There are endless reasons a big-box toy store would collapse during a retail apocalypse — and Toys R Us acknowledged a number of them in its most recent annual filing: the teetering tower of debt incurred by its private-equity owners, competition from Amazon, Walmart and Target.
They even wrung their hands about app stores, labor costs and potential tariffs raising the costs of the imported goods they sell.
But one risk stood out. Toys R Us said there just weren’t enough babies (emphasis ours):
The decrease of birthrates in countries where we operate could negatively affect our business. Most of our end-customers are newborns and children and, as a result, our revenue are dependent on the birthrates in countries where we operate. In recent years, many countries’ birthrates have dropped or stagnated as their population ages, and education and income levels increase. A continued and significant decline in the number of newborns and children in these countries could have a material adverse effect on our operating results.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/15/toys-r-uss-baby-problem-is-everybodys-baby-problem/
Another day, another multihundred point drop in the DOW…
at least we know when the recession started
By my way of thinking the Recession started when we first started borrowing to maintain a lifestyle that we couldn’t afford.
According to WaPo, it’s because Trump is unleashing tariffs on China, to punish China for stealing IP. Says WaPo:
restrictions on Chinese investment in the United States designed to mirror limits faced by Americans investing in China
Of course, equilizing the trade is now a “trade war.” Because the world is entitled to American generosity in perpetuity.
Hidden in the tariff plan is this: “Tighter visa policies for Chinese students are also being considered.” Interesting.
Foreign undergrads are notorious for cheating, but it’s tolerated because they pay the full freight tuition. I guess they are cracking down?
Re: the before/after pics of Bezos.
When is Mark Zuckerberg going to have his transformation?
Bezos = Lex Luthor
hate to be derogatory but chubbies minions are being amply rewarded in this abomination of a budget………….Salaries of staffers in the Senate are also set for an increase. Division I of the legislation breaks down the total salaries of officers and employees, which are being raised from $182 million in 2017 to $194.8 million in the final bill, an increase of $12.58 million. BELIEVE THATS 7% ??