Boom-Glut Dynamics And The Absence Of Money Bags
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “It’s been the most consistent trend the city has seen over the last three years: Chicagoans leaving Chicago to move elsewhere. Yet the building boom that has curiously grown in reflection of the downward population doesn’t appear to be letting up. If anything, it’s kicked into another gear as more cranes have been raised skyward with the slowly thawing temperatures. When looking at the point of intersection for the rising rents and skyscrapers against the dwindling local population, one has to wonder; when exactly will this bubble burst?”
“Luxury homes in Manhattan are selling at the biggest discounts on record as owners grow tired of waiting for buyers to match their price. Homes priced at $4 million or more that went into contract in the first 12 weeks of the year had their asking prices cut by an average of 10 percent, the most in data going back to 2012, according to Olshan Realty Inc. Final sale prices, which won’t be known until the deals close, will probably reflect even greater reductions, said Donna Olshan, president of the brokerage that compiled the report. ‘Most things at $4 million and above are selling 15 to 20 percent below the original ask,’ Olshan said. ‘It’s a data point that screams: The market is overpriced! People are still being delusional about their real estate.’”
“We’re continuing to take a look at the impact of failing schools in the city of Birmingham and now looking into how it’s playing a role on the housing market. Tracy Wright, a local realtor with Barnes and Associates, showed us a home zoned for Wenonah High School that’s been on the market for about a year. Wright says the seller may end up dropping the price or it could go into a short sale meaning selling a home for less than the existing mortgage on it. ‘We have to drop our values below market which then causes house prices to decline which then turns into foreclosure which then turns into short sale. So it’s kind of like a cycle that keeps going and going,’ Wright said.”
“Back in September 2007 at absolute peak frenzy of the Housing Bubble in San Francisco, the co-founder of YouTube, Steve Chen, purchased a two-level 3,030 square foot condo at the high-rise Ritz-Carlton Residences for $4.85 million. At the time, it was an unfinished empty shell. He then built it out with a budget ‘estimated to have been nearly as much as the shell.’ At this point, not counting HOA fees, property taxes, insurance, mortgage interest, and other expenses, he has plowed $8.85 million in it.”
“But then, without ever having lived in his trophy condo, he got married, had kids, and moved down the Peninsula. A few days ago, according to Reator.com and Zillow, the still unlived-in condo came back on the market but at a big discount from what the aspirational price had been in 2012. Now the asking price has been cut to $5.95 million. This loss would be almost equal the original purchase price of $4.85 million. Let that sink in for a moment: to lose $4.53 million on real estate that had original been acquired for $4.85 million! This assumes that he didn’t insure it and that he didn’t finance any part of it, and that he can sell it at the current asking price.”
“Buying a first home together is a milestone for many young couples. Like so many other buyers looking to purchase property in the Lower Mainland, Ines Min and her husband faced the challenge of buying a home in a red-hot market in which prices for even a modest apartment-style condominium exceed $680,000. Despite the cost, the couple were undaunted, figuring it was now or never. ‘The condo market was on fire last year when we bought, but we were reassured by the fact that our investment was only going to appreciate over time,’ says Min, 30, who works in public relations.”
“Now this new supply could hit the market just as these dampening measures take effect, says Cameron Muir, chief economist with the British Columbia Real Estate Association. ‘It’ll mean we probably bought at the worst possible time,’ Min says.”
“Rental prices in Rio have recorded a drop of over seven percent in the last twelve months. Charlie Jonas of Rio Exclusive, a luxury real estate firm in Rio de Janeiro confirms, ‘Nowadays for R$5,000 you can get a decent three-bedroom in Copacabana or a two-bedroom in Ipanema and maybe even in Leblon.’”
“The rate of construction of new homes in Sweden is expected to fall significantly in the coming years, dropping from 55,000 new buildings in 2018 to 46,000 in 2019, according to the Swedish Construction Federation’s economic forecasts, which suggest a decline of just over 30 percent from the peak in 2017. In its report, the federation warned that credit restrictions like tightened amortization requirements could accelerate a downturn. ‘It’s starting to reduce very drastically now,’ Swedish Construction Federation CEO Catharina Emlsäter-Svärd said.”
“Last week’s figures showing a fourth consecutive month of declining housing prices did not surprise Meitav Dash Investments Ltd. chief economist Alex Zabezhinsky. Q: So real estate will drag down the entire Israeli economy? A: ‘Accumulated experience from around the world shows that a halt in the real estate market following a rapid and prolonged boom has almost always led to slower growth. Real estate is a very large section of the economy, and when it cools off, it has a collateral effect.’”
“Osaz Enobakhare, an award winning structural engineer and CEO of Heavens Contractors Limited, said the lull in the market that may not likely bounce back soon is due to the recession in the economy, which is yet to be fully exited. ‘Most properties above N100m are difficult to sell because of the absence of money bags who usually buy them. Most corporate bodies are not doing well either, hence they cannot buy properties as they used to do. Their patronage for high rental properties has also stopped; therefore, you see so many blocks of flats in Ikoyi and Victoria Island remaining vacant for long,’ he said.”
“In the weaving alleys of Shanghai’s Laoximen district, swathes of residential buildings sit empty. The historic area in the heart of the city is being slowly demolished, and many residents have already abandoned it, leaving behind rows of traditional terraced houses with boarded-up windows and demolition signs on the doors. The redevelopments are a reaction to the city’s runaway growth, and key contributors to the first population falls in Shanghai and Beijing for decades.”
“‘What used to hold four families is now the luxury ground floor on a building for one rich person,’ says Saskia Sassen, professor of sociology at Columbia University and author of the book Expulsions. ‘China’s government is moving people out of its top cities to its underused cities – not the likes of Shanghai or Guangzhou, but really overbuilt half-empty cities that were just projects for the construction companies to make money.’”
“Paul Ellender, Property Consultant at Freer Properties, said rental prices (at least in Daun Penh) are stagnating, if not dropping. He noted that prospective tenants are negotiating quite ruthlessly. Mr Ellender explained that the glut of condos on the market is contributing to this as tenants can get a brand new space, with gym, pool, city views and roof terrace for $50/week more than an older colonial building with street views. Just like in other countries, oversupply in the market is often the cause of rental price stagnation in Cambodia, particularly in Phnom Penh.”
“For condominiums alone, the supply for 2018 is expected to increase by 87 percent, from 16,300 to 30,500 units, in addition to another 1,200 serviced apartments.”
“Khor Yu Leng from Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd said Johor had seen a property boom with per square foot prices in some enclaves reaching Kuala Lumpur city centre levels. Yet, it had also witnessed a major slowdown with a marked drop in transaction volume and property value since 2017. The Penang Institute concluded that ‘Chinese investments in southern Johor have split the property development into a high-end market with excess supply targeted at foreigners as buyers, and a lower-tier market driven by local developers targeting mostly local buyers.’”
“Khor said Johor residents were reasonably insulated from the property enclave ‘boom-glut dynamics targeted at foreigners.’ However, he warned that they were not immune to domestic-driven affordability problems.”
“If you were at a party with 20 or 30-something Sydneysiders four years ago, the dominant conversational topic was getting into the property market. Now things have changed. People aren’t trading tips on how to buy in Sydney. They’re comparing notes on how to leave. When my wife and I started telling our friends about our plans to move our family out of Sydney and head for the wider spaces and less aggressive rents of Adelaide, something unexpected happened. Around three quarters of the people confessed that they too had an exit strategy planned.”
“The people who were determined to stay in Sydney weren’t sure how they could manage long term. Even those who weren’t fearing a budget-busting rent increase spoke darkly of rumoured developments or shared stories of compulsory acquisitions that didn’t come close to paying for an equivalent property. Everyone seemed to feel like they were one unexpected redundancy or medical crisis away from their entire economic system collapsing.”
The Israeli interview is worth reading in full. Those guys are toast.
“…in six months we will begin to hear people say that the interest rate should be lowered, but in truth, it can’t be lowered any further.”
Bradenton, FL Housing Prices Crater 30% YOY As Housing Correction Hits High Gear
https://www.movoto.com/bradenton-fl/market-trends/
i NOTED THAT MY LATE POST IN YESTERDAYS POST WAS ELIMINATED. iT MERELY STATED THAT THE SENATE STAFF WAS GETTING A 7% INCREASE IN THE BUDGET, FAR GREATER THAN THE MILITARY ONE. Also that few of Trumps concerns appears to have been addressed (diplomatic statement)
Nobody eliminated your post cap lock toby.
LOL…Maybe he forgot to hit the add comment link…
your buddy trump is gonna make my walmart trips more expensive.
This is what azdude posts on QE sound like:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=668Y2pg_Byo
This is good use of the jaw harp:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HDMCCLlGl4
Depend$ on what you buy, … rubbing alcohol? mo$t likely knot.
Housing Tobias… Housing.
Brookfield, MA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/brookfield-ma/market-trends/
IIRC, Congressional staffers — low-mid level staffers don’t make oodles of money. It’s akin to a sort of internship. You are paid in connections and experience. Senior staffers (who can stick around for more than one Congresscritter) would make more.
Speaking of Brazil and Rio…
+++++
Why the Demand for American Sperm Is Skyrocketing in Brazil
https://www.wsj.com | March 22 | Samantha Pearson
SÃO PAULO—With “jewel-tone eyes,” blond hair and a “smattering of light freckles,” Othello looks nothing like most Brazilians, the majority of whom are black or mixed-race. Yet the “Caucasian” American cashier, described in those terms by the Seattle Sperm Bank and known as Donor 9601, is one of the sperm providers most often requested by wealthy Brazilian women importing the DNA of young U.S. men at unprecedented rates.
Over the past seven years, human semen imports from the U.S. to Brazil have surged some 3,000% as more rich single women and lesbian couples select donors whose online profiles suggest they will yield light-complexioned and preferably blue-eyed children.
Racis.
I am a frequent traveler all over the world.
Products for skin lightening and skin whitening are quite popular. And well as colored contact lenses for turning brown eyes to any other color.
Most popular advertisement for these products are Central/South America, the Middle East (to include India) and Africa.
Third worlders are the most racis people on earth.
Wow, that WSJ article left me speechless. I can’t quite wrap my brain around the ethical implications of all of this.
Would the fetus have U.S. citizenship that mom could leverage?
“Would the fetus have U.S. citizenship that mom could leverage?”
Good question. I ran across this …
“Birth Abroad Out-of-Wedlock to a U.S. Citizen Father – “New” Section 309(a)”
“A person born abroad out-of-wedlock to a U.S. citizen father may acquire U.S. citizenship under Section 301(c) or 301(g) of the INA, as made applicable by the “new” Section 309(a) of the INA if:
“A blood relationship between the person and the father is established by clear and convincing evidence;
The father had the nationality of the United States at the time of the person’s birth;
The father (unless deceased) has agreed in writing to provide financial support for the person until the person reaches the age of 18 years, and
“While the person is under the age of 18 years –
the person is legitimated under the law of his/her residence or domicile,
the father acknowledges paternity of the person in writing under oath, or
the paternity of the person is established by adjudication of a competent court.”
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/travel-legal-considerations/us-citizenship/Acquisition-US-Citizenship-Child-Born-Abroad.html
Let’s home in on this passage for a moment …
“The father (unless deceased) has agreed in writing to provide financial support for the person until the person reaches the age of 18 years,”
“(unless deceased)”: This is an interesting requirement in that if it is fulfilled then financial magic can happen due to the fullment of the other requirements, but if it is not fulfilled then the other requirements
become moot.
Meaning: An American citizen sperm donor may be financially worth a lot to some people if he is dead but will be worth nothing to those people if he remains alive.
Interesting.
“You had me @ ” blue.eye$” … Rene Zellweger
Hit it Willy!
Speaking of South America:
Human experimentation
Mengele used Auschwitz as an opportunity to continue his anthropological studies and research on heredity, using inmates for human experimentation.The experiments had no regard for the health, safety, or physical and emotional suffering of the victims.He was particularly interested in identical twins, people with heterochromia iridum (eyes of two different colours), dwarfs, and people with physical abnormalities
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josef_Mengele
Everyone is still dancing but have their eyes on the exit door.
But the doors are narrow. Only the first few are going to make it.
+++++
Around three quarters of the people confessed that they too had an exit strategy planned.”
Liquidity is like a taxi cab in the rain: it disappears when you need it most.
Libor/OIS spread.
Now the ‘tariff’ is done. Trump needs to ban foreign money in American housing. Now!
That would be nice, but as a practical matter how could such an objective actually be accomplished? In this globalized world, there are many ways to move money. Any effort to slow movement of capital will be resisted big time by banks, hedge funds, forex, etc, etc.
I will wager that the readers of this blog could come up with a hundred different methods to move $$ across borders.
I will wager that the readers of this blog could come up with a hundred different methods to move $$ across borders.
You don’t even have to move it if you know somebody on the other side that also needs to do the reverse. All you need is trust between the two.
A start would be to come up with registry of beneficial owners so that LLCs and foreign nationals can’t hide their ill-gotten gains under some false shell companies. We at least deserve to know who owns what. A second step would be to implement some surtax on 2nd homes or unoccupied homes. Many of British Columbia’s measures seem to have merit and have proceeded along this route. Seems to have worked to cool their market a bit.
We at least deserve…
Government intervention to reduce the harmful effects of earlier government intervention. We deserve to be less manipulated in the first place.
Judge Smalls
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CraFZDtvreo
Follow the successful Vancouver model?
Not the run up and the looking the other way when money came flooding in, but the recent laws taking a crack at that foreign money does seem to be having an effect. Time will tell if it is big enough.
‘Mr Ellender explained that the glut of condos on the market is contributing to this…Just like in other countries, oversupply in the market is often the cause of rental price stagnation in Cambodia, particularly in Phnom Penh…For condominiums alone, the supply for 2018 is expected to increase by 87 percent’
This keeps happening and the media doesn’t really address it. Just why, in an age when there’s all this planning and data analysis do developers keep overshooting by huge amounts? It isn’t being driven by supply and demand. It’s too much speculation that turns into a mania. You get outcomes that seem bonkers after it becomes obvious.
Cheap and easy money
Plus more and more debt.
It is the secret to easy prosperity and wealth.
It is just amazing that it has never been tried before…
“Just why, in an age when there’s all this planning and data analysis do developers keep overshooting by huge amounts?”
Because they are just plain stupid.
“This keeps happening and the media doesn’t really address it.”
Is the”media” … Living in low co$t rentals … or … Dwelling in up$cale hou$ing … me.thinks, they are committed to the $chool of True.Beliver$
Hand.bite.don’t!
“This keeps happening and the media doesn’t really address it.”
Oh why, oh why could this be? Here’s a clue …
“Advertising spending in the real estate industry in the United States from 2010 to 2017(in million U.S. dollars)”
https://www.statista.com/statistics/470650/real-estate-industry-ad-spend-usa/
Appreciate the link, ( wi$h eye could view it) … rather give Mr. Ben the $49 USD viewing fee instead …
Silverton, OR Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Oregon Economy Stumbles
https://www.movoto.com/silverton-or/market-trends/
Get on the Silverton Train
https://youtu.be/T9ZlLrRzTNw
“…Luxury homes in Manhattan are selling at the biggest discounts on record as owners grow tired of waiting for buyers to match their price..”
Translation: The pretend rich 1% are up to their eyeballs in debt.
“…Olshan said. ‘It’s a data point that screams: The market is overpriced! People are still being delusional about their real estate….”
Translation: We aren’t generating enough commission cash to keep the doors open.
The co-founder of Youtube is probably not pretend rich. I’m sure he can afford to give that apartment away for free. Maybe it’s exactly what they say: Hang onto it hoping to break even, but if you get tired of it, take the hit just to get it off your mind. I’ve been reading books on decluttering, and it’s the SAME concept.
That’s a good point. There comes a point where it’s time to move on and take the loss especially if the magnitude of the loss is not a life changing event.
“The co-founder of Youtube is probably not pretend rich.”
There are probably tax situations for high net worth investors.
Yawn…too early to come out of hibernation just yet.
fastFT
Wall Street skids to worst week since January 2016
Dow Jones closes in correction territory as investor fears over trade war grow
an hour ago
- Wall Street remains unsettled by Trump policy moves
- Wall Street grinds lower on trade, government shutdown concerns
- Wall Street opens higher despite trade war, government shutdown concerns
Poetic$!
Wall $treet
Concern$
Open$
Grind$
Dow Jone$
Wow. That is some kind of haircut.
++++
Comedian Byron Allen buys the Weather Channel for $300M
NY Post | 3/22/2018 | Alexandra Steigrad
The Weather Channel TV network was sold Thursday — to comedian-turned-media mogul Byron Allen.
Allen’s Entertainment Studios Inc. bought the 36-year-old TV staple from the Blackstone Group, Bain Capital and Comcast.
Terms of the sale were not disclosed, but sources pegged the price at about $300 million.
The network and its digital property — weather.com — were purchased by the trio 10 years ago for $3.5 billion.
The web properties were sold to IBM in 2015 for $2 billion.
“The Weather Channel is one of the most trusted and extremely important cable networks, with information vitally important to the safety and protection of our lives,” said Allen, who rose to fame as a “Real People” host in 1979. “The acquisition of the Weather Channel is strategic, as we begin our process of investing billions of dollars over the next five years to acquire some of the best media assets around the world.”
Founded in 1993 by Allen, Entertainment Studios owns the HD cable networks JusticeCentral.tv, Cars.tv, Pets.tv and Recipe.tv.
Surprised it was allowed to be purcha$ed, considering the inclement & $tormy weather! … Iffin’ ya don’t like the Sunday weather, wait 60 minutes! …
He didn’t get the website/domain, which is probably the most lucrative thing to have. Very few youngin’s even have cable TV any longer.
Yeah, that’s the interesting point in all of it IMO. The cable channel has now become almost worthless compared to the app and website.
Interesting reading here
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/23/us/flooding-canyon-gate-hurricane-harvey.html
“Many parts of the city were hit hard by the hurricane, but Canyon Gate has the extraordinary distinction of being built within the confines of a reservoir specifically designed by the Army Corps of Engineers to protect central Houston from calamitous flooding. Nearly every one of the 721 homes there is destined to flood again, yet the local trade in storm-damaged real estate is flourishing.”
Building in an designed floodplain… who signed off on that?
Who signed off — Every homeowner did, like the idiots they are.
When I bought my house, they handed me a map with the 100-year floodline and made me acknowledge that I was aware of the flood implications. (I was well above the line.)
‘It’ll mean we probably bought at the worst possible time’
Well, it was cheaper than renting, right Ines?
Denver is getting crowded:
https://www.denverpost.com/2018/03/22/denver-population-growth-100000-7-years-pace-slowing/
‘China’s government is moving people out of its top cities to its underused cities – not the likes of Shanghai or Guangzhou, but really overbuilt half-empty cities that were just projects for the construction companies to make money.’
Huh, you know I remember Crow Dan told us this was the new Chinese way of building cities. Looks like he’ll have to eat more crow.
‘China’s government is moving people out of its top cities to its underused cities – not the likes of Shanghai or Guangzhou, but really overbuilt half-empty cities that were just projects for the construction companies to make money.’
LMAO. So the government just tells you you’re moving? Gee, where do I sign up? China is a bad, bad place.
“So the government just tells you you’re moving? ”
How many Americans drive 2.5 hrs + to go to their “day job$” then drive = or > to get back to their “home”? … Define: “compliance” … You get bonu$ points for creative u$e of the word: “forced”
Yeah, no. We are nothing like China.
At first I thought they were moving entire small economies. For example, move a few major industries and move the employees and services to an underutilized (ghost?) town. The act of forcing people isn’t great, but on a practical level it probably wouldn’t be terrible.
But they aren’t doing that. Instead, they are just moving low-incomers and migrants, massive gentrification. This seems bad for everybody.
This seems bad for everybody.
One of the good things they have going for them is that the poor still have places to live that are close(ish) to the rich. It means the poor can find work easily and still live in cheap housing and the rich can cheaply get all their needs met. Sounds bad but actually works well and reduces the problem that we have with crime when you sequester the poor away from jobs. They are going to lose that if they kick the poor people out of the cities.
So the government just tells you you’re moving? Gee, where do I sign up?
Not just individuals. When they decided they wanted to compete with Manhattan and built a new financial center in Shanghai on swampland on the other side of the river, they just told all the banks they had to build and use HQ-class buildings over there. It was touch and go for a while but it seems to have worked. It’s now a major financial center full of skyscrapers. They’re not full, but they are slowly filling.
Imagine the government contacted you and said “Carl, you’re moving from Manhattan Beach, California to Manhattan, Kansas. You leave in a month. Have fun.” And, you didn’t have a choice.
It $ux to be a subject in a communist dictatorship.
Didn’t say I agreed with it. Just said it appears to have reached critical mass for them on that particular forced move.
This is a fun narrative to start the weekend:
https://aeon.co/essays/the-merits-of-taking-an-anti-anti-communism-stance
To use a Game Of Thrones analogy, I don’t “bend the knee” to AntiFa or to all the teenagers rallying tomorrow to repeal the 2nd Amendment, and never will.
The United States is the last stand against tyranny. If it falls to the totalitarian left, there’s nowhere else to go…
I’m thinking various skulz do not teach about the number of deaths inflicted on millions of people by their own governments during the 20th century?
The Gulag Archipelago should be required reading….
Street closures all over the place tomorrow. Unless you’re actually going to the march, it’s better to stay far away. I hope those restaurant workers et al get a lot of tips tho. And although the teenagers are “leading” this march, make no mistake, there are plenty of retired hippies right next to them.
Someone asked a very salient question the other day — why didn’t these students march and rally during all 8 years of Obama, when there were quite a few school shootings? Or this just a reason for yet another two-minutes hate against Trump?
Hey Donk
This is getting obnoxious. I recommend that you preserve what’s left of your dignity and stop trolling oxide.
Housing my good friend.
Ventura, CA 93003 Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Housing Correction Rocks Southern California
https://www.zillow.com/ventura-ca-93003/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
Someone asked a very salient question the other day — why didn’t these students march and rally during all 8 years of Obama, when there were quite a few school shootings? Or this just a reason for yet another two-minutes hate against Trump?
Why are thousands of Brazilians the death of Marielle Franco, who is just one death, when Brazil has some of the most homicidal cities in the world? Why did Slovakia’s government step down amid the murder of a journalist exposing that country’s corruption? Why is Britain responding so tepidly to Russian operatives using nerve gas agents to kill in their country? Thousands of refuges and migrants died trying to flee Syria. Why was the image of Alan Kudri so evocative and so moving to prompt Merkel to stick out her neck and take the humanitarian measures necessary to alleviate suffering, even when this has cost her politically?
It’s hard to pinpoint exactly why certain events become movements, and others not. But one explanation is found in Malcom Gladwell’s thesis of the tipping point. There must be a “critical mass”, something that resonates with a population and tugs on the heart strings, or strikes a logical chord.
By the way, I read that Aeon essay. Pretty sound logic and I agree with his reasoning:
We should all embrace Geertz’s idea of an anti-anti-communism in hopes that critical engagement with the lessons of the 20th century might help us to find a new path that navigates between, or rises above, the many crimes of both communism and capitalism.
It’s like I read the other day, don’t confuse “anti-zionism” with “anti-semitism”.
“…why didn’t these students march…”
It seems like they are fed up with school shootings. It’s not an anti-Trump movement.
“…march and rally during all 8 years of Obama…”
It wasn’t exactly a peaceful march, but perhaps you forgot about BLM / Ferguson / Michael Brown, etc? (Having helped my parents sell our family home four miles east of and four months after Ferguson, I have not forgotten the Obama riots…)
It seems like they are fed up with school shootings. It’s not an anti-Trump movement.
That is definitely where the sentiment is directed towards. Trump is hardly the quintessential NRA poster child, which is one of the reasons I respect him on this issue. He is not an ideologue, but a pragmatist. In the past he has been in favor of an assault rifle ban and recently he supported some gun control measures aimed, including pre-emptively taking guns away from those thought to pose a risk to themselves or others (e.g. extreme-risk protection orders). Of course, his stance on gun control measures immediately post Parkland has been evolving towards arming teachers and scapegoating violent video games. He is placating his base, but his instincts are probably correct.
Drove by the capitol building in Sacramento yesterday. There were a few stragglers on the steps with signs but nothing to write home about. Noticed more than the average number of Bernie stickers on the cars parked nearby.
Alameda, CA Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Tech Layoffs Ravage Bay Area
https://www.zillow.com/alameda-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
‘A top executive for the maker of sensors used on the self-driving car that struck and killed a woman in Arizona this week said she’s “baffled” as to why the tech-outfitted vehicle failed to recognize a pedestrian crossing the street and hit the brakes.’
‘Marta Thoma Hall, president of Velodyne Lidar Inc., maker of the special laser radar that helps an autonomous car “see” its surroundings, said the company doesn’t believe its technology failed. But she’s surprised the car didn’t detect 49-year-old Elaine Herzberg as she pushed her bike across a road in Tempe, Arizona, around 10 p.m. on Sunday.’
“We are as baffled as anyone else,” Thoma Hall wrote in an email. “Certainly, our Lidar is capable of clearly imaging Elaine and her bicycle in this situation. However, our Lidar doesn’t make the decision to put on the brakes or get out of her way.”
‘“In addition to Lidar, autonomous systems typically have several sensors, including camera and radar to make decisions,” she wrote. “We don’t know what sensors were on the Uber car that evening, if they were working, or how they were being used.”
‘She said that lidar has no problems seeing in the dark. “However, it is up to the rest of the system to interpret and use the data to make decisions. We do not know how the Uber system of decision-making works,” she added.’
‘Recognizing pedestrians continues to be a challenge for autonomous technology, which will be part of the focus of the investigation. Thoma Hall suggested that those answers will be found at Uber, not Velodyne.’
“We at Velodyne are very sad, and sorry about the recent Uber car accident which took a life,” she wrote. “David Hall, company CEO, inventor and founder, believes the accident was not caused by Lidar. The problem lies elsewhere.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-23/sensor-supplier-to-self-driving-uber-defends-tech-after-fatality
I saw a photo of the damage to the car. They disrupted this woman real good!
“I saw a photo of the damage to the car”
What would the photo look like iffin’ it had been 18 wheels & 10 ton$ on auto.pilot & 0 opioids?
If human beings can drive across rural Montana at night w/o creaming a deer, antelope, or elk, then this car/driver should have been able to avoid hitting a person walking a bicycle across the street, with the car going only 40mph.
There is so much fail in this case.
Climate change disregards … “subtle events over time” … It’s all relative “over.time” … Who’s on 1st base?
‘with the car going only 40mph’
I’d say Elaine’s hip made a foot deep dent in the hood. Of course, rentalwatch would say she died for the good purpose of making the jetsons a reality. Her role as an unpaid, unaware crash test dummy should make her a hero to the millions of drivers these guys want to put out of a job.
I did have a thought. Why not set up some test village, you know with guys walking around looking at their phones. Have these cars operate until there until they are perfected. Why make us all subjects in this fiasco?
Oh, even better test them in the Uber CEO’s neighborhood.
“Why not set up some test village”
San Francisco. It meets all the prerequisites. Mindless numbnuts gazing at their phone, hookers, drug dealers all milling around in the streets.
Too much hydroplaning danger from all the human feces on the road.
If they put a live feed online, I’d watch.
There is a pretty good case to be made that self-driving should be deployed at very reduced speeds until the technology improves. There are lots of ways to move forward with self-driving technology without being stupid about it, like Levandowski apparently was, and without sidelining its development. 93% of people survive an accident at 20 mph or less. So you could really throttle the speed.
Matt Levine said it cheekily, but perhaps wasn’t entirely wrong:
“A self-driving Uber killed one person yesterday, but human-driven cars killed about 100 people yesterday in the U.S. If self-driving Ubers fully replaced human-driven cars while still killing only one person — or 10 people — a day, then that would represent an enormous improvement in human welfare, even though Uber would be killing people every day. And speeding that adoption up by even a week would save hundreds of lives.”
That’s a big IF, but the entire history of automobile transportation has been about reducing fatalities. Self-driving is probably just another step in this direction, albeit one that is fraught due to how drastic a step it is.
‘Self-driving is probably just another step in this direction’
Or it could be a greed driven exercise in futility. Let’s let more Elaine’s take one in the hip to ponder the question, shall we?
This happened in my little burg last year:
https://www.stgeorgeutah.com/news/archive/2017/05/17/mgk-rsw-man-struck-by-car-in-parking-lot-dies/#.WrXShS7wbIU
Osborn was in the Albertsons parking lot around 1:40 p.m. when he was hit by a silver 2002 Pontiac Grand Am driven by an 88-year-old Ivins man.
“Based upon the initial investigation, it appears that, rather than pushing the brake, the driver of the Grand Am pushed on the accelerator,” St. George Police said in a press release Wednesday. “After striking Mr. Osborn, the Grand Am continued through a parking stall and struck a shopping cart return bin before coming to a stop after striking an unoccupied vehicle.”
These types of stupid human accidents occur all the time. This one was in a parking lot. Elaine’s death is sad, but I’m less worried about self-driving than I am about human driving. I work in an ER and I see all sorts of mangled people none of them coming in from self-driving. Status quo bias.
‘I’m less worried about self-driving than I am about human driving’
OK, so insure it (which pays your wages BTW). Oh, you can’t and no one else will. So get back to me when you have a real innovation and not some more silicon valley snake oil.
You probably think of yourself as a progressive, arguing for these greedy dogs.
“Recognizing pedestrians continues to be a challenge for autonomous technology, which will be part of the focus of the investigation.”
That’s a pretty big shortcoming. I am pretty surprised that it is legal to test autonomous vehicles that can’t detect pedestrians. I personally drive every day in areas which pedestrians frequent, and have absolutely no problem detecting them.
“A self-driving Uber killed one person yesterday, but human-driven cars killed about 100 people yesterday in the U.S.”
Actually it was only about 10 of the 100 that were pedestrians. Something like 10 per billion miles driven. You can look at this any way you are inclined to and choose simple cheap solutions or complex expensive solutions that enrich influential companies.
I don’t believe that the “whole history” of automobiles has been about improving safety.
“Something like 10 per billion miles driven.”
That’s the relevant point. By contrast, the self-driving vehicles have had a much higher incidence rate per mile.
I like Ben’s suggestion to first test them in the neighborhood where Uber’s CEO lives. That would be the fastest way to bring down the incidence rate.
That’s a pretty big shortcoming. I am pretty surprised that it is legal to test autonomous vehicles that can’t detect pedestrians
Lidar definitely can detest pedestrians, but it’s a question of how Uber’s self-driving tech implemented the detection in their vehicle. Velodyne put out this statement:
“Our LiDAR is capable of clearly imaging Elaine and her bicycle in this situation. However, our LiDAR doesn’t make the decision to put on the brakes or get out of her way,” said Hall, who is the wife of David Hall, Velodyne’s CEO, founder and inventor of its spinning, multi-laser beam LiDAR units. “We don’t know what sensors were on the Uber car that evening, if they were working, or how they were being used.”
*detect
You probably think of yourself as a progressive, arguing for these greedy dogs.
I try to steer clear of rigid boxes when it comes to political ideology. I was fascinated when you shared a couple of weeks ago that you worked on Ron Paul’s campaign. I was a huge volunteer for his campaign as well, so I’m sure we align on some areas politically, if not on all areas.
I’m not for self-driving cars because I am on the side of big auto (or tech) companies. Quite the contrary. I don’t even own a car right now. I ditched it for an eBike. But I surmise that the US economy and way of life is fundamentally designed around cars. They are the lynch pin that kind of undergird everything else. I’m fine with regulating, insuring, and trying to prevent tragic self-driving accidents like the we’re discussing. But I want to see the technology progress because I think it will be a big part of the normalization of the housing market.
I don’t think politicians are going to clamp down on foreign money flooding into real estate, and I don’t think the MID is going to be completely rolled back, and I don’t think the GSEs are going to be reformed anytime soon. I hope all these things do happen, but I’m not holding my breath. I hope interest rates get more normal and lending standards tighten up. But in the meantime, one way I think downward pressure builds on the bubblicious markets where good jobs are located is if more accessory dwelling units are built, parking lots and parking garages are converted into residential dwellings, and proximate land for new development allows for commutes to city centers that don’t totally bite. Self-driving has the potential to kind of usher this in. This has been my thesis for a couple of years now.
“Lidar definitely can detest pedestrians, but it’s a question of how Uber’s self-driving tech implemented the detection in their vehicle.”
Looking for pedestrians at expressway or freeway vehicle speeds is probably not ideal… want the brakes applied swiftly at high speed, or an abrupt control input lane change?
My AI car would slow down a bit if it sees a short skirt.
want the brakes applied swiftly at high speed, or an abrupt control input lane change?
Well there was the time I rounded a bend on the Mass Pike at night & saw a 10′ long aluminum ladder laying completely across my lane. You can bet there was an abrupt lane change on my part. Either that or I would have slowed down very abruptly at high speed. Circumstances change things.
Computers do not process information the same way as people do.
Suppose the car had artificial intelligence? If the car saw the woman with its laser vision, but succumbed to a sudden urge to run her down? What if the car was a bloodthirsty killer?
Who bears responsibility for the misdeeds of a malevolent vehicle?
“Suppose the car had artificial intelligence?”
2021 A Freeway Odyssey
However, it is up to the rest of the system to interpret and use the data to make decisions. We do not know how the Uber system of decision-making works,” she added.’
You mean the algorithms might have been erroneous? No way, Jose! Everyone know that writing complex, bug free code is easy!
This reminds me of an urban legend from decades ago about a NASA programmer who supposedly programmed an infinite loop into his code that controlled a spacecraft. I don’t know if the story was true, but it reflects a truth about coding which remains to the present, which is that it is far easier to write code which malfunctions than that works properly. (Thinking back on a few mundane hours of debugging effort spent getting my code to run just yesterday…)
do loops without an end
Reminds me of the joke that my intro C++ prof gave during lecture at university:
Why did the programmer get stuck in the shower?
Because the instructions on the shampoo bottle said: lather, rinse, repeat.
Short term rentals add complications this cycle in a number of markets until regulation or saturation.
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2018/03/growing_number_of_high-rise_ap.html
All of these AirBnB and short term rentals have to be eating away at the profits of regular hotels. It’s not like all of a sudden there are a ton more people vacationing. Somebody is taking it in the shorts.
Bellevue, WA 98005 Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY On Rising Mortgage Fraud
https://www.zillow.com/bellevue-wa-98005/home-values/
redmondjp will be so angry!!
Now for the Moron of the century
http://www.crimeonline.com/2018/03/23/high-roller-celebrating-96k-settlement-with-prostitutes-robbed-of-all-his-money-in-apparent-setup-police-say/
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! (choke, wheeze) BWAHAHAHAHAHA! (strangle, can’t breathe) BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Trump got the Wall. We got the wall! Oh me of little faith! Oh, Jeebus, Trump shoved it right up the posteriors of Congress. All that money that went to the military? Guess who’s gonna build a major chunk of the wall? Army Corps of Engineers! BWAHAHAHAHAHA! What an act he put on today over signing that bill! He friggin’ got Congress to allocate the money for the wall. He proposed a certain amount for the military, Congress says, we’ll outdo you, we’ll give ‘em 20% MORE than you proposed, nyah, nyah.
So there I am, pizzing and moaning about Bolton and the military, until someone gave me a major heads up on what a really happened. I would never have thought of that. That’s why he’s president and I’m not. Here, boyz n’ gurlz, here’s your pay raise, and by the way, you’re gonna build that wall! BWAHAHAHAHAHAH-HAH!
What’s your source for this, palmetto?
Actually a friend of mine who analyzes all this stuff closely, including bills like this. Usually he puts me to sleep with his analyses, but I stayed awake for this one. Makes sense, too. I looked online for confirmation, so far all I see is some twittering, that’s about it.
I just hope the Army Corps does it right, because they really screwed up Florida with a system of drainage canals, a situation that Jeb Bush tried to fix by letting the Kissimmee river go back to its normal course. I should look that up and see how the project is going. I don’t think it was ever completed.
BTW, a really interesting Youtuber that I follow occasionally is a guy called Florida Maquis. Retired Army intel guy who lives in the St. Augustine area, analyzes troop and ship moves, South American events, terrorist stuff as it relates to Florida. His opinion is that “the wall” is the least of our worries and that most of the action coming from South America is by water. He thinks the Coast Guard needs a major beefing up.
His opinion is that “the wall” is the least of our worries and that most of the action coming from South America is by water.
I seriously doubt that. People mostly come here on airplanes on “tourist” visas.
Once upon a time it truly was funny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c91XUyg9iWM
Not to worry about your stock market HODLings. A closely watched pot never boils over.
Stocks now in downward spiral, as political risk becomes bigger threat than rising interest rates
- Stocks are expected to face more choppiness in the week ahead, after the worst week for the market in more than two years sent the Dow into a full-fledged 11.6 percent correction from its highs.
- Political risk — from trade developments and the shuffling of White House personnel — could continue to be the main focus for markets in the final week of the first quarter.
- There is a busy economic calendar, including S&P/Case-Shiller home prices Tuesday and personal income and spending Thursday. That includes the closely watched PCE deflator inflation data, watched by the Fed.
- For the quarter so far, the S&P 500 is negative, off 3.2 percent, and the Dow was down 4.2 percent. But the Nasdaq was still about a half percent higher for the quarter, even with the past week’s sell-off in tech.
- The S&P closed right on its 200-day moving average, a key area that traders have been watching for a retest, but they will have to wait until Monday to find out if it holds.
Patti Domm
Published 5 Hours Ago
Updated 4 Hours Ago
…
Are you concerned that China might dump its Treasury HODLings?
China’s new threat to stop buying US Treasurys
21 Hours Ago
CNBC’s Eunice Yoon reports on China threatening to stop buying U.S. Treasurys in response to the Trump administration’s imposed tariffs on the country.
You know what to do. Let ‘em bounce and hit ‘em.
https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/2018/03/banks-peak-financial-crisis-highs-go/