If Prices Become Unaffordable, They’ll Come Down
A weekend topic starting with MarketWatch. “As interest rates rise, fewer households refinance their mortgages. And the refinances that do get done are often very different than those initiated during low-rate periods. ‘When rates are low, the primary goal of refinancing is to reduce the monthly payment,’ wrote researchers for the Urban Institute. ‘But when rates are high, borrowers have no incentive to refinance for rate reasons. Those who still refinance tend to be driven more by their desire to cash out.’”
“As of the fourth quarter of last year, the share of all refinances that were cash-outs rose to the highest since 2008, according to Freddie Mac data. The Urban Institute and others have shown that refinancing activity, not home buying, was responsible for inflating the housing bubble.”
From US News & World Report. “While interest-only loans disappeared from the mortgage marketplace for a few years, they’ve recently had a minor comeback. Interest-only loans offer flexibility for people who want to use their cash for other investments throughout the year, says Jennifer Beeston, branch manager of mortgage lending for Guaranteed Rate in Santa Rosa, California. For example, you can trade stocks with the cash you would have paid toward the principal on a conventional mortgage and then use the profits to pay some of the principal in a lump sum.”
“‘Another profile of a good candidate for an interest-only loan is someone who moves around and relocates a lot but wants to get into the housing market in a location where values are rising,’ says Beeston. ‘It could be better than renting, as long as values are rising.’”
From Eurasian Review. “The mortgage market again faces the risk of a meltdown that could endanger the U.S. economy, warn two Berkeley Haas professors in a paper co-authored by Federal Reserve economists. The threat reflects a boom in nonbank mortgage companies, a category of independent lenders that are more lightly regulated and more financially fragile than banks–and which now originate half of all US home mortgages.”
“‘If these firms go out of business, the mortgage market shuts down, and that has dire implications for the overall health of the economy,’ said Richard Stanton, professor of finance and Kingsford Capital Management Chair in Business at Haas. Stanton authored the Brookings paper, ‘Liquidity Crises in the Mortgage Market,’ with Nancy Wallace, chair of the Haas Real Estate Group. You Suk Kim, Steven M. Laufer, and Karen Pence of the Federal Reserve Board were coauthors.”
“Independent mortgage companies have little capital of their own and scant access to cash in an emergency. They have come to rely on a type of short-term funding known as warehouse lines of credit, usually provided by larger commercial and investments banks. It’s a murky area since most nonbank lenders are private companies which are not required to disclose their financial structures, so Stanton and Wallace’s paper provides the first public tabulation of the scale of this warehouse lending. They calculated that there was a $34 billion commitment on warehouse loans at the end of 2016, up from $17 billion at the end of 2013. That translates to about $1 trillion in short-term ‘warehouse loans’ funded over the course of a year.”
“If rising interest rates were to choke off the mortgage refinance market, if an economic slowdown prompted more homeowners to default, or if the banks that extend credit to mortgage lenders cut them off, many of these companies would find themselves in trouble with no way out. ‘There is great fragility. These lenders could disappear from the map,’ Stanton noted.”
From Inman News. “January’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index shows that home price growth is unlikely to slow down anytime soon — January 2018’s national index comes in at 196.31, a 6.2 percent year-over-year. Chairman of the index committee David M. Blitzer noted there are no ‘weak spots’ when it comes to individual markets, and the home price index continues to outpace the national GDP.”
From AZ Family in Arizona. “Do you remember the housing bubble? It pretty much crippled our economy and forced countless families out of their home. Well, fast-forward 10 years and the real estate market is back in full force and thriving. The Phoenix real estate market has officially taken off. ‘In the last five years in Arizona alone, we’ve had a 39 percent increase in value in property,’ said Nate Martinez, who is a Valley real estate agent for more than 30 years.”
“It’s a sellers’ market. It also means if you’re a buyer, you’ll have to be prepared before someone else gets the house you want. ‘They need to have their loan done. They need to know exactly what they’re looking for in a house. They need to be prepared that in a multiple offer, they may have to pay above full price to get the house,’ he said.”
From the Wilsonville Spokesman in Oregon. “Shortly before the housing bubble burst, the stock market crashed and the worldwide economy went into a deep recession, the median home price in Wilsonville was $406,300, according to Zillow. That number cratered to $379,300 by 2008 and $295,500 by 2010. But housing prices have slowly trended upward since 2012. And in 2017, Wilsonville’s average home sales price surpassed the 2007 mark for the first time, according to Zillow — reaching $434,850 in 2017 while Realtor.com calculated the figure at $433,483.”
“Real estate broker Debi Laue says low interest rates have facilitated the rise in prices. ‘There was a lot of dead years where people wanted to buy and couldn’t, but with low interest rates and affordability, the market has cut loose,’ she said.”
“But the uptick in real estate prices won’t last forever. And Andy Green of Green Group Real Estate has been waiting for an eventual downturn. ‘We’re long overdue for a market correction,’ Green said. Laue agrees. ‘I think the market will correct. It always does. If interest rates go up and prices go up and become unaffordable, they’ll come down and be affordable,’ she said.”
The Lewiston Tribune in Idaho. “In Canyon County, where population and economic growth ordinarily is not just approved of but eagerly sought, organizations such as the Canyon County Agricultural Planning Area Committee usually start with an easily accepted point of view: Mo’ growth, mo’ better. But not so much at their last meeting in Caldwell. A report in the Idaho Press-Tribune said that ‘Some attendees expressed concern about Meridian development spilling over into the farmland in North Nampa. One Nampa farmer told staff that development was happening in his area quicker than he had ever seen.’”
“One spoke of a ‘wall of houses’ encroaching from Ada County into Canyon. Another farmer replied, ‘It’s not a wall of houses. It’s a tidal wave.’”
“Also last week, a group of mostly Canyon Countians spoke similarly at the new, small city of Star, where a local comprehensive plan change might lead to turning 5,000 rural acres into medium- or low-density housing.”
“A day after touring some of the huge fields of new houses in western Ada County - the big new crop in that area - I had coffee with an old friend who lived for many years on the East Coast, a former Idahoan moving back to his old home area. But not exactly in his old town of Boise; he had to settle for several miles away from it. He intended moving back there. But it didn’t work out because he could find no houses (at least, suitable) in Boise for near what he could pay - and that’s after selling his comparable place in an eastern state metro area.”
“Houses with a price tag less than $200,000 are rare birds now in Boise, and hard to find nearby. If you’re an average income homebuyer, and your income is below the executive level, you’re going to have a hard time finding a place there.”
“What we’re seeing now may be another housing bubble; in fact, probably it is. But for now, housing is in too limited supply in the Boise region, and in other regions around Idaho - in Kootenai County, in Twin Falls and elsewhere. If you can afford high-end digs, you have ample choices.”
The headline from the Inman article:
‘Home price growth is unstoppable, ‘no weak spots’ in housing markets’
Click!
First the click - then the bang!!!
Leesburg, VA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As Federal Budget Impacts Northern Virginia Housing Market
https://www.movoto.com/leesburg-va/market-trends/
“The Urban Institute and others have shown that refinancing activity, not home buying, was responsible for inflating the housing bubble.”
Now there is a very interesting statement. If “inflating the housing bubble” is a term that means houses are bought at higher and higher prices then the result of these higher and higher prices is not due to refinancing but instead it is due to home buying.
I might as well point out the fact that after a puke commits himself to buying a house whatever happens to the price of comparable houses - the comps - is entirely dependent on the actions of other buyers, of strangers, and the actions of these strangers is what adds “value” to the puke’s own house.
The puke may or may not want to cash out this newly acquired (choke) value, which is up to him, but cashing out the value and spending the money does not mean the value of his house will increase even if he spends the money on improving the house; The value of the house will increase only if others - other buyers - decide if if should increase.
Here’s a link referenced in the article …
https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/using-homes-atms-not-homebuying-fervor-was-more-blame-housing-crisis
The link talks about the cause of the housing CRISIS, not about the cause of the housing BUBBLE.
Don’t take my word for this; Hop onto the link and see for yourself.
Or not. Whatever.
“The puke may or may not want to cash out this newly acquired (choke) value,…”
You would guess this would depend on how good a bailout he can expect in the eventual collapse, and also what it would cost him to walk away from his mortgage obligation.
What are the chances that a person who put 3 or 5% down, paid it off to have 20% equity, only to borrow it back and repay it again? I’d say none. What are the chances that the same person is told a windfall of $100,000 or $500,000 can be had because prices have shot to the moon, and takes it? Pretty high.
When I first got into the foreclosure biz in 2008, every single shack I was sent to was a refi. Most had been refi’d 3, 4 times or more in just a few years. $80k, $100k at a whack. The radio is full of (non-bank BTW) ads imploring listeners to think of all the things they can do with all that money!
It’s a transaction, selling it to the lender. And the motivation is key: they aren’t going to pay it back cuz the shack is going to go even higher and they’ll take even more cash or sell to cover the whole thing. It’s free money!
“What are the chances that the same person is told a windfall of $100,000 or $500,000 can be had because prices have shot to the moon, and takes it? Pretty high.”
Further evidence that entire populations have been morphed into vast hoardes of totally dumbed-down ignorant pukes whose miserable lives will be forever lived as indentured debt slaves.
‘vast hoardes of totally dumbed-down ignorant pukes’
Have you watched the flipping shows on TV?
“Have you watched the flipping shows on TV?”
I have a special selection of Dotted Line Specials devoted to, er, serving these folks.
You have QUALIFYING !!!!!!!!! times or scores to play sports. Isn’t that at the heart of the matter ? The person or institution that qualifies people for mortgages or loans is the problem.
Caveat emptor doesn’t work with STUPID.
A Tacoma lease says $164/month. The footnote says $500.
“A Tacoma lease says $164/month. The footnote says $500.”
I have to admit I am absolutely stunned by the lofty prices on houses and cars, and how they’ve been able to decouple from wages for such a long duration. It’s financial games, but at a certain point, the debt has to be serviced. You can kick the can for a while, but how many times can you roll over negative equity in a vehicle? Pretty soon the person owes $30,000, and has no car.
Much of the last bubble was caused by teaser rates, especially ones tied to interest only deals. Even a person with a middle class income can afford a million dollar house if he or she only has to pay on a 2% loan. The paradigm at the time was housing would only go up so you could easily refinance since in a few years you would have so much equity. When it did not happen and the rates readjusted people lost equity first and then the homes since their income did not cover the mortgage. Fast forward, how did the Fed get the housing market going, it dropped all rates to almost the level of teaser rates.
This is precisely why the Bay area is going to be ground zero for a housing correction. Sorry at normalized rates even most high tech workers cannot pay the mortgages on million dollar plus homes. Sure the ones that have fixed mortgages will be able to hang on but their homes prices will be determined by the comps and that will be determined by what people are willing and can pay at the higher rates.
First, will go the equity and some people will be literally borrowing the money to pay the mortgage as the prices fall and then people will begin to lose homes and these homes put on the market will depress prices further. The difference this time is the housing prices are less disconnected from economics in most areas. This can be seen in relationships between renting and owning a home. I do not think it is a national problem of the same scale because subprime loans, no doc loans were not made in neighborhoods and even states where the demographics and the economies were bad but the houses still shot up, due to the fact that anyone who could fog a mirror could get a loan. That type of lending exists in vehicle loans not homes loans this time around.
Pretty soon the person owes $30,000, and has no car.
There is always someone that will loan even more money on an even crappier car at an even higher interest rate. Pretty soon the person owes $30k on a car that no longer runs or can be licensed. But they have a car. It’s when they realize they would be better off with no car than the next (worse) deal that they are offered that the game finally changes for them.
I disagree, Carl. Trees don’t grow to the sky. There is always an end and somebody takes the loss. In this case, it’s going to be the subprime auto loan investors.
“I have to admit I am absolutely stunned by the lofty prices on houses and cars, and how they’ve been able to decouple from wages for such a long duration.”
An extended cab 2018 Toyota Tacoma TRD sells for $35k+ these days, and a premium edition crew cab (heated leather seats, etc.) will fetch $45k+… for a pickup truck?!
“Pretty soon the person owes $30,000, and has no car.”
Girls are fakin’, goodness sakin’
They want a man who brings home the bacon
Got no money and you got no car
Then you got no woman and there you are
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouPNDB21a7Q
Considering the fact anyone who can fog a mirror is getting financed with a subprime mortgage, it’s no wonder the flipping shows are on round the clock.
Apollo Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 33% YOY As Vacation Property Market Collapses
https://www.movoto.com/apollo-beach-fl/market-trends/
Ben - here in the Denver area there is an ad - (non bank) on talkie radio that states explicitly that your home is a ‘bank’. That cannot end well.
By the way - I took a drive out east of the Denver metro - the homes going up are marching toward Kansas. So many crap shacks going up - and they ain’t cheap. Many ‘golf course’ development type communities where 4200 s.f. homes on die cut lots. Think east Aurora, east Parker. New stuff and for sale signs are already sprouting up - me thinks that buyer bit off more than he could chew.
“here in the Denver area there is an ad - (non bank) on talkie radio that states explicitly that your home is a ‘bank’.”
Same radio ad currently runs in this part of Region IV
’says Jennifer Beeston, branch manager of mortgage lending for Guaranteed Rate in Santa Rosa, California…For example, you can trade stocks with the cash you would have paid toward the principal on a conventional mortgage and then use the profits to pay some of the principal in a lump sum’
Or go to Hawaii, refi next year and do it all over again. What is the capital behind Jennifer and this Santa Rosa outfit? Some desks and office furniture?
‘most nonbank lenders are private companies which are not required to disclose their financial structures, so Stanton and Wallace’s paper provides the first public tabulation of the scale of this warehouse lending. They calculated that there was a $34 billion commitment on warehouse loans at the end of 2016, up from $17 billion at the end of 2013. That translates to about $1 trillion in short-term ‘warehouse loans’ funded over the course of a year’
But. But Senator Running Deer? She wouldn’t let this happen, would she?
“‘Another profile of a good candidate for an interest-only loan is someone who moves around and relocates a lot but wants to get into the housing market in a location where values are rising,’ says Beeston. ‘It could be better than renting, as long as values are rising.’”
“… as long as values are rising” = as long as PRICES are rising.
The term “value” suggests (to me at least) an attribute associated with an item that is seperate from price. In such a case an item can be under priced, fairly priced, or over priced.
But if the value of the item is defined by the price then the item cannot ever be under priced or over priced. The value can only be determined by the price, the price of comparable items, something that is determined by strangers, some of whom may have totally lost their minds.
Realtors are liars.
You can say that again.
“Federal prosecutors: Lockport realtor lied about lead paint presence to sell home”
https://www.wkbw.com/news/federal-prosecutors-lockport-realtor-lied-about-lead-paint-presence-to-sell-home
Off topic - I’d be interested in hearing first hand knowledge of the San Antonio, TX metro area with respect to the quality of life there.
They have an awesome light show @ the Alamo, … sometimes a body found floatin’ along the River walk … Knot much different then any large high density collection of folks in a 4 mile radius, what kinda weather do you like/prefer? … (Did eye mention brisket?)
For example, you can trade stocks with the cash you would have paid toward the principal on a conventional mortgage and then use the profits to pay some of the principal in a lump sum.
Dumb question what happens if stocks go down and there is no money when the loan recasts??
This is when you begin to auction off your body parts.
eBay:
Used knees. High mileage.
What happens?
Your brokerage account is closed out and you lose the house, but, living in Miami allows you the “MIAMI R.E Option” :
On a Wednesday, after everyone has gone to work, you disconnect the refrigerator and dishwasher and outside ac unit and front door and ceiling fans and they get hauled away in the back of a Home Depot Rental truck.
Since this is NOT your first time, remove the lighting fixtures under the kitchen cabinetry.
Nothing will be missed.
———————————————————————————
A neighbor across the street calls the police. They arrive and tell him NOT to call them again.
Happy Easter to the HBB clan:
Um….ILLANNOY……
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-illinois-exodus-population-taxes-20180328-story.html
Just viewed a video on Upstream Ideas - Dan Proft’s periodic conversation those in power - recent one had three republican leaders from ILLANNOY State house interviewed and as I watched this dialogue I understand why folks are leaving in droves for GA, TX, CO, ID and other states.
“Houses with a price tag less than $200,000 are rare birds now in Boise, and hard to find nearby. If you’re an average income homebuyer, and your income is below the executive level, you’re going to have a hard time finding a place there.”
Are there any podunk areas where house prices are NOT in a massive bubble? I’m seriously wondering if there are any states or counties that this massive bubble redux has passed over.
Driving through massive gridlock yesterday, it feels like 2005 all over again, with fuel prices ratcheting up to boot. I paid $3.39 yesterday. I’m not sure what the impetus is going to be, but once house prices do start falling it’s probably going to be another 5+ years until there are any real bargains. 25 years of bubble economics. How swell.
25 years of bubble economics.
There is no longer a time limit. As long as the dollar has value that can be diluted or manipulated the game will continue. Otherwise the wrong people lose.
In 1940 I Paid 15 cents for a gallon of gasoline and my hourly income was 25 cents. Gas cost, at that time, 60% of a an hourly wage. Hourly wage now is about $10 for menial work.
Gasoline should be about $6 to be commensurate with the good old days.
it seems to me that the causative factor in all of the more or less inflation in home pricing is not the home loans, but the credit cards issuance on or around 1966 where people had access to easy cash and could spend money they did not have at the time.
25% interest on this easy cash is killing the country
In 1967 I was paying 30c/gal and making $2/hr doing menial labor.
In the late 1990s, the price of oil was ten dollars a barrel and the price at the pump was $1 a gallon. Now the price is $70 a barrel for Brent crude which now sets the world price. Pre-shale it was WTI but I digress. Thus, crude is seven times what is was and the major reason gasoline is not $6 a gallon is that gasoline taxes have not kept up with crude. Wages have not kept up with crude oil and will not going forward. As long as electric cars rely on lithium and cobalt, electric cars will not be the answer since cobalt in particular is scarcer than oil.
This country had affordable housing when it had 250 million people. California had expensive but not absurd prices when it had twenty five million. It is both legal and illegal immigration and their spawn that laid the foundation for the housing bubble. Granted the PTB have exploited the situation by encouraging people to speculate in housing but without the underlying problem caused by finite resources which causes both oil and land prices to rise, it would not be possible to create the massive housing bubble.
Of course, we can examine whether we have allowed in the best immigrants, we have not, but the worse problems are caused by the sheer number of them. Trump is right we need to limit immigration. He might not be the best human being but he has the best policies for the middle class and working class Americans. Hillary wanted to encourage even more immigration and open the borders wider.
I agree with some of your statement regarding immigration and some of DJT’s policies. I do, however, want to point out that most EV manufacturers are moving away from Cobalt. A report from McKinsey (The Future of Nickel: A Class Act):
“Constraints in [Cobalt] supply are likely to persist. Approximately 60% of cobalt produciton comes form the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which presents both operational and reputational risks for minking companies. Additionaly, cobalt is rarely found in high concentrations and is mostly produced as a by-product of copper and nickel. Limited new investment in these two commodoties has only increased the supply challenge for cobalt.”
“Consequently, cobalt supply constraints are likely to curb the growth of cobalt-rich battery technologies, including NCA and NCM. For now, manufaturers of these high-capacity batteries are trying to reduce the proportion of cobalt content by increasing the amount of nickel sulfate used. For example, the 622 battery (two parts cobalt per six parts nickel), used in a number of European Ev battery applications may be replaced soon by an 811 chemistry with only one part cobalt per eight parts nickel.”
LMO (Nissan Leaf) and LFP (BYD’s batteries) EV batteries are all free of Cobalt. If Cobalt prices continue to rise, there will invariably be more mining resources put to extracting the metal. Right now it is just a byproduct of copper and nickel mining.
If you want to read a counter argument as to why Cobalt prices are unlikely to impede the transition to EVs, try this:
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/11/nope-cobalts-not-problem-ev-revolution-will-march/
“I paid $3.39 yesterday.”
The Houston floods are no longer an excuse are they?
Theres many more sources (and demand) of oil nowadays, refining and distribution methods are probably much better than in the 40s as well so I wouldnt necessarily extrapolate the cost of gas out to $6/gallon. If you think it should be 6/gallon based on the math, you should be buying futures with every penny you got.
When oil was in the 30s and even high 20s a little while ago I bought - easy investment I’ve made in the past 5 years or so since there’s generally been a dearth of value.
As Albuquerque Dan always said, “why buy it when you can rent it for half the monthly cost. Buy later after prices crater for 75% less.”
Albany, OR Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/albany-or/market-trends/
Dallas, TX 75287 Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY On Plummeting Housing Demand
https://www.zillow.com/dallas-tx-75287/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
PHD
“But it didn’t work out because he could find no houses (at least, suitable) in Boise for near what he could pay - and that’s after selling his comparable place in an eastern state metro area.”
Woh, Idaho, it sounds so simple, I just got to go
Baby’s hungry and the money’s all gone
The folks back home don’t want to talk on the phone
She gets a long letter, sends back a postcard, times are hard
Woh, down in Idaho, I never really been so I don’t really know
Do they still have mortgage salesmen?
pimps?
Buying that overpriced house was a mistake. Just admit it…
Jane’s Addiction — Ted, Just Admit It:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CpRCc4Jre8
Here it is everyone - the definitive list of price declines mentioned here since Jan 1st. Happy Easter and Happy End of the Quarter to all!
–
HBB-Reported Purchase Price Declines, Q1 2018
–
> -77.5% [Phoenix / VAL TOW DEV LUX EST (Mar16-Feb18)]
> -73% [Vancouver / PCA SFR LUX (Nov17-Feb18)]
> -71.4% Australia - Miles / PCS LUX DEV (P-Mar18)
> -64% Phoenix / PCA TOW DEV LUX EST (2017-Feb18)
> -68% [Vermont / LTF LUX] (Q3.17)
> -60% Beijing - Suburbs (Q2,3,4.17)
> -60% [Manhattan - Greenwich Village / PCS LUX] (Jan18)
> -50% Manhattan / AVG SP DEV CND (mom -Jan18)
> -51.2% [Saddle River, NJ - NYC sub / UPS SFR LUX (2008-Feb18)]
> -49% [Vancouver / PCA SFR LUX (Feb18)]
> -47% [Manhattan - Tribeca / PCA LUX] (Q3.15 - Jan18)
> -40% to -60% Dubai / PCA DEV (Jan18)
> -46.4 [London - Chelsea / PCA LUX FOR (Feb18)]
> -46.2% Western Australia - Crawley / VAL CND PIX (yoy -Nov17)
> -45.2% [Australia - Gladstone / FOR] (2015-18)
> -44% [Los Angeles - Pacific Palisades / PCS LUX] (sold Jan18)
> -43% Ontario - Richmond Hill / AVG (17.P-Feb18)
> -40% Los Angeles - Silver Lake 90027 / MED CND (yoy -Dec17)
> -38% [Manhattan - UES / PCS TOW LUX] (Feb16-Mar18)
> -37.8% [Manhattan - Upper East Side / PCA COP (Feb18)]
> -37.2% Western Australia - Burswood / VAL PIX (yoy -Nov17)
> -35.7% Phoenix / PCA TOW DEV LUX (16-Feb18)
> -33% [Vancouver / PCA SFR LUX (Feb18)]
> -33% [Miami / PCS MTF] (2016-Mar18)
> -32.8% [San Francisco / VAL LUX] (2007-18)
> -32% [Manhattan - UES / PCS COP LUX (May17-Feb18)]
> -30.8% [Australia - Gladstone / VAL] (2012-18)
> -30.6% Sydney - Darlinghurst (Mar18)
> -30% Fort Nelson, BC / AVG SFR (yoy ~Jan18)
> -30% Ontario - Aurora, Markham, Vaughan / AVG (Apr17-Feb18)
> -10% to 30% Sydney / PCA EST (Mar18)
> -29.3% [Manhattan - One57 / UPF CND LUX (Feb18)]
> -29% London - Earls Court / ARV DEV CND LUX (2015-Feb18)
> -28.6% [Sydney / PCA] (Mar18)
> -25% [London - Knightsbridge / PCS LUX] (Q3.16 - Jan18)
> -25% [Toronto - Greater Toronto / EST SFR] (yoy Feb18)
> -25% Manhattan - One57 / AVG SP CND LUX (2014.P-Feb18)
> -25% [Brisbane - Fortitude Valley / PCA DEV] (Mar18)
> -24.2% [Manhattan / PCS DEV LUX] (Jan18)
> -20% to -40% Beirut - Central (Jan18)
> -20% to -30% Miami / PCS CND EST (Feb18)
> -5.8% to -26.2% Manhattan, AVG PCA LUX {$10mil+} (Jan18)
> -25% [Brisbane / PCA DEV] (2017)
> -24.2% [Manhattan - Midtown / PCA CND (Nov16-Mar18)]
> -23.5% San Diego / MED SP SFR DEV (June17-Feb18)
> -22% [London - Blackfriars / UPL CND] (2013-Jan18)
> -21.7% [Manhattan - One57 / UPS CND LUX (2015-16)
> -21% Manhattan / AVG SP DEV (yoy ~Jan18)
> -20.9% Toronto sub - Mississauga / AVG (Mar17P-Jan18)
> -20% Kuala Lumpur / PSF LUX (Feb18)
> -20% Egypt / PSM EST (Nov16-Feb18)
> -20% Manhattan / AVG PCS LUX (Jan18)
> -20% St. Louis - Edwardsville / PCA DEV ENT (17-Jan18)
> -20% Los Angeles - Los Feliz 90039 / MED CND (yoy -Dec17)
> -15% to - 20% Manhattan / PCS LUX EST (Q1.18)
> -10% to -20% London / PCA LUX {£5mil+} (Jan18)
> -10% to -20% South Florida / PCA DEV LUX (Jan18)
> -19.8% Toronto / AVG (Apr17P- Feb 18)*
> -19% Manhattan - Upper West Side / AVG SPR CND (2016-2017)
> -18.5% Toronto sub - Mississauga / AVG SFR (Mar17.P-Jan18)
> -18% Manhattan, / AVG COP LUX {3+ bedrooms} (yoy ~Jan18)
> -18% Australia - Zuccoli / SP LND DEV (Feb18)
> -17.9% [Manhattan - UES / DEV CND] (Apr13-Mar18)
> -17.7% [Manhattan / PCS CND LUX] (2015-Mar18)
> -17.4% Manhattan / AVG SP CND+COP (mom -Jan18)
> -17% Los Angeles / MED SFR LUX {top 10% of sales} (Q4.16-Q4.17)
> -17% Sydney - Darling Point and Point Piper (yoy ~Jan18)
> -17% Manhattan / AVG SP DEV (yoy ~Jan18)
> -17% Toronto exb - Burlington / MED (Mar17.P-Jan18)
> -17% [San Diego / PCS SFR LUX (Aug17-Feb18)]
> -17% [Manhattan - UES / PCS LUX (June17-Feb18)]
> -17% Los Angeles - Silver Lake 90027 / MED SFR (yoy -Dec17)
> -16% Sydney - Bellevue Hill (Mar18)
> -15.5% Manhattan / AVG SP (yoy -Jan18)
> -15.2% Auckland / MED (Q3,4.17)
> -15% Manhattan - Upper East Side / AVG SP CND (2016-2017)
> -15% Melbourne / ARV CND DEV (Feb18)
> -15% London - Wandsworth (Mar18)
> -15% Sydney - Sutherland and Alfords Point (Mar18)
> -14.4% London - Fulham / VAL (2014-Jan18)
> -14.3% Manhattan / AVG SP (yoy -Dec17)
> -14% Sydney - Olympic Park and Parramatta / MED VAL CND (yoy -Jan18)
> -14% Manhattan / AVG PCS LUX (Mar18)
> -13.5% Greenwich, CT / AVG PCS LUX (Q4.17)
> -13.4% Toronto sub - Mississauga / AVG SFR (yoy -Jan18)
> -13% Dubai (2016 -Jan18)
> -13% Sydney - Vancluse (Mar18)
> -12.4% Toronto / AVG EXT (yoy -Feb18)
> -12.4% Toronto (yoy -Mar18)
> -12.3% Toronto exb - Hamilton-Burlington / MED (Apr17.P-Jan18)
> -12% Manhattan / AVG CND LUX {3+ bedrooms} (yoy Jan18)
> -12% London - Knightsbridge / AVG PCA (Jan18)
> -12% Stockholm (Aug17.P-Jan18)
> -12% Toronto - 905 ac / AVG SFR (Feb18)
> -11.8% Toronto exb - Hamilton / MED (Apr17.P-Jan18)
> -11.3% [Brisbane / CND EST] (Feb16-Feb18)
> -10% UK - Central London, Oxford, Cambridge, Aberdeen / AVG PCS (Feb18)
> -10.5% [Brisbane / CND EST] (Feb16-Feb18)
> -10.2% [Brisbane - sub / UPS CND] (Feb16-Feb18)
> -10% Brisbane / VAL EST (Feb18)
> -10% Melbourne - inner city / PCA CND EST (Feb18)
> -10% Melbourne - South Bank / PCA CND DEV ENT (Feb18)
> -10% Manhattan / AVG PCS LUX (Feb18)
> -10% Sweden (Q3.17.P-Mar18)
> -10% Sydney - Narrabeen, Matraville, Cammeray, Tempe, Coogee, Mascot, Belfield (Mar18)
> -10% Manhattan - AVG PCA LUX (Q1.18)
> -10% [Sydney - Meadowbank / PCS DEV] (2016-18)
> -8 to -10% Greater Toronto - Whitby / LP DEV EST NBY (yoy -Jan18)
> -9.8% Toronto sub - Mississauga / AVG (yoy -Jan18)
> -9.4% Oslo - area / AVG (yoy -Jan18)
> -9% London / PCA LUX {exclusive neighborhoods} (Jan18)
> -9% Toronto / SFR (Feb18)
> -8.9% Toronto / PIX (Q3,4.17)
> -8% Stockholm / AVG CND (yoy Feb18)
> -8% Summit County, CO / AVG SP LND (Feb18)
> -8% Toronto exb - Burlington / MED (yoy -Jan18)
> -8% Manhattan / AVG PCS (Feb18)
> -8% Manhattan / MED CND + COP (Q2.17.P-Mar18)
> -7.8% Sweden / PIX (Q4.17)
> -7.8% Sweden / AVG (Q4.17)
> -7% Shanghai / PCA DEV (Jan18)
> -6.7% Los Angeles - Los Feliz 90039 / MED SFR (yoy -Dec17)
> -6.5% Vancouver / AVG SFR (yearly 2017 vs. 2016)
> -6.2% Oslo / (yoy -Jan18)
> -6% Toronto sub - Mississauga / AVG (mom -Jan18)
> -6% Toronto / SFR LUX (Q4.17)
> -5.5% [Sydney - Eastlakes / PCA] (Mar18)
> -5.3% [Manhattan - Upper West Side / UPS LUX (15-Jan18)]
> -5.1% Jerusalem (Q4.18)
> -4.6% [Manhattan - PCS CND LUX] (2017)
> -4.4% Sydney - Canterbury Bankstown / MED CND (Q4.17)
> -4.4% Toronto (yoy -Jan18)
> -4.3% London (Q4.17)
> -4.1% Toronto / AVG SPR (yoy Feb18)
> -4% Toronto sub - Durham Region / AVG SP (yoy Feb18)
> -4% Sweden / AVG CND (yoy Feb18)
> -4% Regina / AVG (yearly 2017 vs. 2016)
> -4% Manhattan / AVG SP COP (Q3-Q4.17)
> -4% Brooklyn / AVG SP (Q4.17)
> -4% London - Greater London / AVG PCS (Feb18)
> -4% London - South West / PIX EST (Mar18)
> -3.9% Toronto - 416 ac / AVG SFR (Feb18)
> -3.82% Canada / INF (Q3.17)
> -3.7% Sydney - southwest / MED CND (Q4.17)
> -3.28% Durango, CO / MED (yoy -Jan 18)
> -3.5% London / AVG LP (yoy -Jan 18)
> -3.3% [Toronto - Oakville / PCA] (2017-Mar18)
> -3% Berthoud, CO / AVG SP (yoy -Feb18)
> -3% Stockholm - greater / AVG SFR (yoy Feb18)
> -2.6% London / AVG (yoy-Jan18)
> -2.5% Sydney / MED (Q1.18)
> -2.5% Sweden / PIX (yoy -Jan18)
> -2.5% Tel Aviv / AVG (Q3-Q4.17)
> -2.4% Sydney / VAL PIX (Nov17-Feb18)
> -2.3% Sydney - lower north shore / MED (yoy -Dec17)
> -2% Sydney - inner west / MED (yoy -Dec17)
> -2.2% Norway / AVG (mom -Feb18)
> -2.1% Sydney / MED (Q4.17)
> -2.1% Norway (yoy -Jan18)
> -2.1% Sydney - south / MED CND (Q4.17)
> -2%+ Sydney - Inner West, Lower North Shore, Northern Beaches / MED EST (Feb18)
> -2% Los Angeles - Hollywood Hills 90068 / MED SFR (yoy -Dec17)
> -1.9% Sydney - west / MED CND (Q4.17)
> -1.6% Auckland / AVG (mom -Feb18)
> -1.3% Sydney / MED (Q4.17)
> -1.2% Israel (Q3-Q4.17)
> -1.2% Auckland / MED (mom -Feb18)
> -1.2% Australia - capital cities (Dec17-Feb18)
> -1.1% Auckland / AVG (Dec17-Feb18)
> -1% Gothenburg, Sweden - central / AVG CND (yoy Feb18)
> -0.9% Sydney / MED (mom Dec17)
> -0.8% Sydney / MED (mom Feb18)
> -0.8% Australia / VAL PIX (Sept17-Feb18)
> -0.8% London / AVG (mom-Feb18)
> -0.7% Sydney / MED (mom Nov17)
> -0.69% Israel / AVG (Q3-Q4.17)
> -0.5% Sydney / MED (mom Oct17)
> -0.5% Sydney / VAL PIX (yoy -Feb18)
> -0.4% UK (yoy Feb18)
> -0.3% UK / AVG (mom -Feb18)
–
KEY
[Brackets indicate single sale]
(Time range noted when info available. If not, date of report. yoy - year-on-year, mom - month on month, P - “peak”)
-
Methodology: AVG Average, MED Median, PIX Proprietary Index
Type: LP Listing Price, SP Sales Price, VAL Valuation, PSQ Price Per Square Foot, PSM Price Per Square Meter
Specialty: PCA Price Cut Asking, PCS Price Cut Sold, UPL Under Purchase Price List, UPS Under Purchase Price Sold, UPF Under Purchase Price Foreclosure, FOR Foreclosure, LTF List Price to Foreclosure Sale, ARV Appraisal Re-Valuation
Category: CND Condo, COP Co-Op, TOW Townhouse, DEV New Development, SFR Single Family, LND Vacant Land, EXT Existing Homes, MTF Multi-family
Price Bracket: ENT Entry Level, LUX Luxury, {Price/Size}
Special Circumstances: EST Estimated, NBY Not Built Yet, INF Inflation-adjusted
Neighborhood: ac Area Code, zip Zip Code, sub suburb, exb exhurb
-
n.b. Type of decline, methodology, etc., are only noted when info is available in source material.
–
Updated every Tuesday, quarterly summary posted on the last day of the quarter
–
Wow, …Thank You! … ( Bakersfried, CA … former de$tination of Du$t bowl worker$, a list you missed! )
This Easter, remember that the Southern Poverty Law Center is an anti-Christian organization that wants to exterminate Christianity and Christians.
Jesus died for your sins.
The Southern Poverty Law Center wants to kill you, to expose you, to “doxx” you for your alleged sins in speaking out against the crime against humanity that is globalism.
Don’t let them win.
Christ Is King.
#Easter2018
+infinity
I just got this email.
“re: Apt 401 and Obama goons (Same individuals)
These are HATE posts. Pleace ban this individual from future posting.
Thank you
Alphonso Bedoya”
I get stuff like this regularly. But just wanted to show everyone what it’s like to moderate a blog.
Jeebus. Never thought about that. Now I can just imagine some of the notes you may have received about me on occasion.
Alphonso, I mean, really…
Jeebus, Alphonso, if that’s how you feel, just man up and post directly to 401 and Goons. Kind of cowardly to go behind their backs and write Ben to have them banned. Plus from the tone of you email, it kind of sounds like you’re trying to shame Ben into doing it. Homey don’t play that.
Not surprising. His anger’s been percolating very close to the surface since he’s getting absolutely creamed on his craptocurrency “investments.” Take out the trash, Alphonso. LMFAO!!!!
May Jesus have mercy on his soul.
In the name of the Father, Son and Holy Spirit, as it was in the beginning, now and ever shall be, world without end, Amen.
Sincerely,
Obama Goons, a proud Catholic
May Jesus have mercy on all their souls. Speaking of Jesus, may I present Christ in the Temple, as interpreted by Donald J. Trump at the Al Smith Dinner:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MryCCdX8IwM
Cenk SHOULD Rethink his career: The ULTIMATE BIG A-Hole Collection
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxwtvRZ3g5E
What evidence do you put forward for your assertion that SPLC wants to exterminate Christianity and Christians? Why do you think it wants to kill me?
If this is not designed to agitate and stir the pot up based on false facts, I’m not sure what is.
Housing my friends.
Murphy, TX Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/murphy-tx/market-trends/
Jesus died for your sins… You too Alphy. There is no hate about it.
sinner
My debts have been paid by another. I’m free.
“re: Apt 401 and Obama goons (Same individuals)
( that implies, they respond to their own post? )
Eye’m as confused as a baby in a topless bar …
“Never think that what you have to offer is insignificant. There will always bee someone out there that needs what you have to give.”
Dear Mr. Ben,
Many Thanks, always,
Hwy50
“Huge Caravan” Of Central American Refugees Is Headed For The U.S. Border:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-31/huge-caravan-central-americans-headed-us-border-hopes-asylum
Well, troops on the border and I guess it’s time for martial law. I dunno who the geniuses are that dreamed this one up but it’s gonna backfire so badly on the commies, not to mention Mexico, which is going to have to deal with all the folks backed up into their country. Those sandwiches and water bottles are going to disappear along with the welcome mat. The defense budget will be tapped for the wall, which will go up fast.
The internet chatter has indicated that the military will be used to handle all the domestic enemies, so that will play right into Trump’s hands. Any commie judge that tries to issue a “ruling” will find themselves cooling their heels in a jail cell.
Still, it will be ugly.
Just adding to the above, here’s Trump’s twitter comments on the situation. Which, quite frankly, make no sense to me. What does DACA, Mexico and the wall have to do with it? It’s an invasion, pure and simple. Act accordingly. Too late to pass “tough laws”. This is happening now.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Another day, another autonomous vehicle crash…
Tesla Model X was in autopilot before fatal crash
By Jackie Wattles March 31, 2018: 2:10 PM ET
Tesla said autopilot was activated during a fatal Model X crash last week in California.
The driver’s hands were not on the steering wheel for about six seconds before the Model X collided with a highway median on Highway 101 in Mountain View, the company said in a statement issued late Friday. And the driver had received “several visual and one audible” cue from the vehicle to grab the wheel “earlier in the drive,” it added.
…
I guess amazon is using and abusing the postal service.
But this cannot be! The folks on reddit’s r/futurology forum assure me that self-driving cars are so much better than human drivers.
Im upside down on my new car.
+1 Papers signed… before you drove it off the lot.
“Papers signed …”
😁
Didn’t the salesperson (thanks Trudeau) mention how your car was an “investment”?
Harlem Shuffle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAkMTu6q2pY