Worldwide, There Is Too Much
A weekend topic on an assortment of bubble related articles, starting with Successful Farming. “According to Ag Funder’s Agrifood Tech Investing Report: Mid-Year Review 2017, start-ups focused on farm-management software, sensing, and IoT were the most numerous, with 46 raising $213 million in funding. With so many vying for your attention, it’s no surprise fatigue may be setting in. The reality, says Rob Trice, founder of Mixing Bowl, is that this growing bubble of ag tech companies will eventually burst and only a few will actually be successful. While accelerators and incubators are popping up to help resolve issues like funding and viability, Trice is concerned at the trends he believes are taking shape.”
“‘Fifteen years ago, there were fewer than 10 incubators and only one accelerator in the U.S.,’ he says. ‘Today, there are over 1,400 combined. This overabundance of incubators and accelerators is creating an overabundance of start-ups. I am also starting to see some start-ups living incubator to incubator, which makes me wonder why it didn’t successfully incubate the first time.’ His other concern is that these competitions are becoming entertainment. ‘I call it the Shark Tank effect,’ says Trice. ‘One competition had start-ups make presentations to funders while they jumped out of an airplane. I don’t want to see start-up funding become a sport.’”
From the Door County Pulse. “In Wisconsin, it’s hard to imagine a world in which there is too much cheese. But too much of everything farms produce has placed those producers in one of the toughest times since the Farm Crisis of the 1980s. The depression has widespread impacts, particularly for ongoing conservation efforts. ‘There’s a deep and terrifying concern,’ Don Niles, owner of Dairy Dreams in Kewaunee County, said calmly.”
“Niles and other farmers deal mostly in dairy products, which are experiencing sustained price depression after enjoying historic highs just four years ago. But cash crop farmers, particularly those who grow corn, soybeans and wheat, are not out of the weeds on prices either. After similar highs just a few years ago, those commodities have kept flat for a few years at levels that don’t give farmers any room for error or expenses. ‘Worldwide, there is too much,’ Niles said of agricultural commodities.”
“Oversupply, the culprit in the low prices, is happening for a myriad of reasons. In 2016, the U.S. government bought $20 million worth of excess cheese that no one else wanted to buy to help hold up depressed dairy prices. It also may have helped a bit, but it didn’t stop farmers from continuing to produce. For eight straight years, the United States has set a new record for milk production. Stockpiles of crops are also at an all-time high. The amount of surplus wheat, corn and soybeans sitting in grain bins across the world waiting to go to market has hit a record for each of the past three years, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.”
“According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, net farm income has been cut in half since 2013 with four straight years of decline. The department anticipates farm incomes to decline again in 2018.”
From Community Impact in Texas. “The plethora of new Plano restaurants that have opened in the last year have brought with them a variety of tantalizing foods for area residents to try—and difficult choices for some existing restaurant owners. City records show the number of food establishments in Plano grew by 8 percent in 2017 alone. According to city records, the total number of Plano food establishments in 2017 saw a 22 percent increase when compared to 2013, with northwest Plano contributing to that total.”
“‘There’s a tremendous saturation of restaurants within [northwest Plano],’ said Andy Rittler, the executive director of the Greater Dallas Restaurant Association. ‘Normally I don’t see that there’s a restaurant bubble. In this case, it seems that there are a lot of restaurants that are opening up in a short amount of time, and it presents a lot of challenges for those that are already existing.’”
The Houston Chroncle in Texas. “Hurricane Harvey was a boon to Houston-area hoteliers who had been struggling to fill rooms during the oil downturn. Seven months after the storm, however, the Harvey hotel bump is largely over. At the Almeda Inn, all 32 rooms were packed with displaced residents in the months after the hurricane. Now, the south Houston motel is down to three rooms of impacted families. ‘We had a couple of months of good business, but it’s slowed down,’ general manager Vinod Bhakta said. ‘People left one by one. If they find a different place, people move.’”
“Before Harvey, Houston had the weakest hotel market among 25 major metros nationally with an average occupancy rate of 62 percent. Danny Patel, who with his son owns the Plainfield Inn in the Sharpstown area, said displaced residents once claimed as many as 40 rooms in the 114-room motel. That number has since dwindled to two rooms, he said. ‘It helped us pay bills and our property taxes,’ Patel said of the Harvey hotel bump. ‘Now, we have to survive somehow.’”
The Connecticut Post. “The demand for office space is changing, and local communities are struggling to keep up. In Trumbull, as officials look for ways to keep the town economy vibrant, addressing the glut of office space remains a top goal. Across Fairfield County, the office market continues to struggle with high vacancy rates. Still, Trumbull represents an extreme — according to a 2017 office space market analysis by Cushman & Wakefield, the town’s 44 percent vacancy rate is highest in the region.”
“When buildings can’t be filled, there is increasing interest in putting its land to better use, as is the case with the former Canon USA building at 100 Oakview Drive. The three-story, 79,000-square-foot space was purchased in January for $4.5 million and is slated to be demolished to make way for a 202-unit residential development. Officials said this transition meets a growing need for housing.”
“‘That was a fallow site,’ said economic development director Rina Bakalar. ‘It was an old model of an office building. It was not going to be used that way. … That has been a catalyst for most of that area so we have a lot more interest in that area.’”
The Pacific Standard on Massachusetts. “Chu Huang has lived in the Boston Chinatown her whole life. In the last few years, the 29-year-old has noticed a change: more people with luggage and backpacks waiting on the doorsteps of apartment buildings to be let in or picked up. She suspects the people laden with bags are travelers renting Airbnb units. Their presence may be muted, but the effects are deeply felt in the neighborhood.”
“‘People think of Airbnb as friendly, like you go stay in somebody’s home,’ says Lydia Lowe, the executive director of the Chinatown Community Land Trust. ‘But it’s become a huge industry that’s actually eating up a lot of the housing in the city. These were people’s homes before. Tenants have been evicted for this purpose.’”
“Today, high-rise towers named One Greenway and Radian tout amenities such as yoga studios and pet care. Studio apartments can rent for as much as $2,800 a month in a neighborhood where 24 percent of families live below the poverty line. Off the top of her head, Chen can think of seven buildings that have been emptied of long-term residents by landlords and turned into de facto hotels through short-term rentals. Even units in the new luxury buildings are being rented out as Airbnbs.”
“‘I see a lot of them being listed as well. We basically have been building housing that people don’t need,’ Chen says.”
From the last link:
‘As the Asian population has decreased in Chinatown, the types of households have changed as well. Chinatown has traditionally been home to multi-generational family households, but between 1990 and 2010, the percentage of families living in Chinatown decreased from 73 to 47 percent.’
‘Some owners of the new luxury units don’t even live year-round in them. Wealthy international investors, many from China and other Asian countries, have snatched up condos to use during vacations or for their children to attend school in the U.S.’
‘Last May, Arturo Gossage, a Chinatown resident of 11 years and the treasurer of the Chinatown Resident Association, tried to map all the Airbnbs in his neighborhood. Although Airbnb doesn’t disclose the address of a particular unit until it’s booked, Gossage cross-referenced listings for rent with Google Maps, property tax records, and the knowledge of community members who are familiar with how the interiors of buildings look. He found over 100 listings. The majority of them were not operated by individuals, but by companies. For instance: “Anthony,” who appeared to be a prolific Airbnb host, turned out to be a New York-based rental company called Domio.’
‘“Anthony,” who appeared to be a prolific Airbnb host, turned out to be a New York-based rental company called Domio.’
Fraud
‘Aerospace has always been a boom-bust business, but following the economic downturn of 2008, the robust upswing has proven elusive, primarily because there are simply too many airplanes available for too few buyers. Says Citi aerospace analyst Jonathan Raviv, this sluggish recovery has earned a name: the lost decade.’
‘In retrospect, Raviv says, the reason is clear. The industry simply overbuilt during the boom period of the mid-2000s. A line drawn though business aircraft deliveries from 1959 through 2017 shows a sharp bump in the mid-2000s. “What’s driving this underperformance, it’s our contention, is that there were too many jets delivered in the mid 2000s, during the boom time. That’s probably pretty clear. Deliveries were way above trend. These over-deliveries essentially became shadow inventory. That was an overhang on the new market,” Raviv says. Prices on the used market tanked, too.’
The problems left over from the bubble’s boom years remain with us, as Bernanke’s quantitative easing left them frozen in a cryogenic state.
house prices must keep rising or banks go under.
Not just the banks. The amount of (stupid) equity cash outs is directly dependent on the (stupid) creation of equity which in turn is a function of (stupid) price rises.
Take away the (stupid) price rises and you take away the (stupid) spending that associated with the (stupid) equity cash outs. Not a good thing to happen in a (very stupid) consumer-based economy.
It’d be better to have an army of homeless people who are priced out of housing forever than to allow any harm to befall banks.
‘River North has claimed another brewery victim. Calvin Beasley and Beth Murray, who opened Beryl’s Beer Company in 2014, are trying to sell the business by the end of April (note: this story previously said “the end of March”); they are offering it for $195,000 through Sanborn and Company. It’s the third brewery in the neighborhood that has faced problems related to RiNo’s growth.’
‘If Beasley and Murray can’t find a buyer, the brewery’s assets will be transferred to their landlord, Trent Carlyle, who plans to keep the brewery open while he continues the search for another operator to lease it.’
“It’s a bummer,” Carlyle says. “They are great people and they do a good job.” Unfortunately, they faced a lot of competition, not to mention endless construction in the neighborhood that made it hard to get to the brewery. As a result, “they just weren’t seeing growth at the speed with which they wanted.”
‘There are currently nine breweries in the River North Arts District, including Beryl’s, along with several wineries and cider makers. Four more breweries are slated to open in the district in 2018. One of those is River North Brewery, which was ejected by its landlord at 2401 Blake Street in 2015; the building was sold to a luxury apartment builder.’
beer market is saturated . barrier to entry is low. time for corporations to lobby and keep small business from taking market share.
Or pay them to pour their beer in the river, comrade, like the cheese cartel. Problem is there’s too much of everything. What’s interesting is no one is making much money. Unless your brewery can be bought out by the bigs, it’s just a low paying job.
dilly dilly!
I thought there was unlimited demand for beer?
14 dollar beers at sporting events are selling.
Can you store beer in caves?
‘There are currently nine breweries in the River North Arts District”
Don’t get me wrong, I like craft breweries, but that’s a bit much if you don’t have the demand to sustain it.
And then there’s this:
“One of those is River North Brewery, which was ejected by its landlord at 2401 Blake Street in 2015; the building was sold to a luxury apartment builder.’
I can understand why the landlord did this. No skin of his nose, he got a better offer. That’s the problem with being a tenant, whether commercial or residential. Good luck to that builder, though.
Craft breweries
Candle shops
Cupcakes!
The stupidity inherent in opening a craft brewery is about same as opening a candle shop, a cupcake place or photo book place (I forget what these places are called).
Just because you personally like the product doesn’t mean it’s not a stupid idea.
Hey, close the brewery but allow the infrastructure to remain. Sooner or later a puke with stars in his eyes will appear with a “Wonderful Business Plan” who will somehow be able to dig deep into some finances (his own or somebody else’s) and he will then throw a gob of money at the brewery (if the infrastructure is left in place it is essentially a turn-key operation) and then - Presto! - he immediately becomes HIS OWN BOSS and is one road to SUCCESS!
Except …
Except the reason that drove the previous owner to throw in the towel STILL EXISTS.
Ooooops, another bank account eventually gets sucked out and another brewery gets mothballed until … until another puke with stars in his eyes arrives on the scene with another Wonderful Business Plan and … and the beat goes on.
This is Ben Jones’ ” dry cleaning effect”. It takes place when expensive infrastructure is left in place (i.e. a farm, a dry cleaning business, a pizza joint, a micro brewery, etc) which makes entry into the business easy in that it is a turn-key operation but marginal because the current economics do not fully support the profitability of the business - something the new owners will get to discover first hand.
If a lender takes possession of one of these “dry cleaner effect” types of business because the previous owner went bankrupt then he is stuck UNLESS he can find some ignorant puke with stars in his eyes to take it off of his hands. Luckily for the lender there is no shortage of such pukes.
And to ease the transaction the lender is very likely to become the ignorant puke’s NEWEST BEST FRIEND and will offer the puke some easy financing so as to insure that the deal goes through.
Again, pukes work, bankers reap.
And it drives down profits for everyone along the way. This isn’t new. But in the shadow of the biggest money creation episode in history it’s been expanded. What did the central banks do with much of that new money? Drive down interest rates, which pushed questionable businesses forward.
What happened to the frackers when oil prices dropped? They found plenty of low interest rate loans to keep going. Now we are drowning in oil and they can produce cheaper than the A-rabs.
Remember the article about Asian fish farming? Post QE, they had expanded by 60%. They are producing so much fish they are trying to export anywhere they can. The writer quoted one guy who asked, “Asia is where most of the worlds people are, and they are exporting food?”
“And it drives down profits for everyone along the way. ”
Exactly. And this is the key point.
Housing is the same way has been since the late 1990s (the repeal of Glass-Steagall).
I saw the post from Tina the other say; she is struggling with the idea of buying before she is priced out forever (she believes…and who knows, maybe she’s right).
Anyway, what is not discussed here or anywhere else is the disintegration of culture in a landlord-driven real estate world. Many, many more neighborhoods nationwide are likely to fall apart much more quickly than ever before.
There will be many large- and small-scale Detroits out there, in every state.
Why would ANY renter of any property give a damn about ANY landlord’s property when landlords are gouging the hell out of them. I am a renter myself, and I certainly wouldn’t give two sh*ts.
I take very good care of the place I rent now because I have a great landlord who is there when I need him. My rent hasn’t increased in FIVE years, so he thinks highly of me as well. As well he should.
Landlords increasing their rents by $100-$500+ a month year-upon-year can go to hell. Do that to me and I won’t care what I do to your property. Why would I care?
I say all this because, again, Tina is wondering whether she should buy. What is the neighborhood like? What percentage of properties are rentals? What is the behavior of landlords in the area? How many are crooks?
Is the culture of that neighborhood likely to change, and if so, how? When? What are the ethics and morals of the neighborhood like? Full of shifty people on the take? No? Are you sure about that?
I certainly wouldn’t buy into an investor-heavy neighborhoods or markets. No way. Sewers waiting to happen.
In an interview that I recall watching some time back, Milton Friedman was pressed on the issue of government regulation. He stridently opposed most forms of regulation and then pivoted to saying something along the lines of, “Why don’t you call it more information?” In other words, he recognized that markets need good information to function properly.
Along with monetary distortions, I wonder what information predicated these business decisions to open the brewery? Where was the market research indicating some pent-up demand for more craft beer, or cupcakes, or photo shops, or fast casual restaurants?
Obviously there are cupcake shops that do well and craft beer shops that can make it. But without understanding the market and having poor information to inform demand, the bubble inflates further. This is all to easy with monetary overstimulus (hence, “cluster of errors”).
Do that to me and I won’t care what I do to your property. Why would I care?
I think Oxide said a few weeks ago something that I quite liked: The prices are going up, but the neighborhoods are going down.
Low-quality oil and huge amounts of borrowed Yellen $ drilled in the ground.
The tracking frakas will be short.
*fracking
Regarding the milk/cheese glut, the dairy farm lobby has been trying to ban the use of “almond milk”, “coconut milk”, “cashew milk”, and any other nut milk.
The EPA is preparing to roll back rules requiring cars to be more fuel efficient. Looks like farm lobby and the oil industry are trying to respond to the glut in dairy/oil through legislative action.
“The EPA is preparing to roll back rules requiring cars to be more fuel efficient.”
Music to the ears of every single automobile owner on the planet.
“Along with monetary distortions…”
What do we call this by the way? Malinvestment? No, because it isn’t that. Misappropriation? No, it isn’t that either. Redistribution? Nope.
Cars are plenty efficient already. Could auto efficiency be better? Yes. But auto efficiency is way down on the list of priorities.
There are much more important eggs to fry.
Not sure if you remember the recent auto bailout or not, but a good deal of that was due to the US auto industry cranking out gas guzzlers. Anyone remember commercials by GM offering to pay your gas if you bought a new SUV? Well, considering that car sales are lagging and ginormous SUVs and trucks are back in fashion, I’d say we are repeating the mistakes of the past. If gas gets back to $4-$5 a gallon, there will be a reckoning.
Considering that the states that sponsor terrorism (e.g. Saudi Arabia) and autocratic, corrupt Russia are basically petro states, I think the transition to an carbon-free future can’t come fast enough. Most of the fundamental Islamic states only subsist with oil money. Yes, there is a big oil industry in the US that will squeal as we move away. But the US is diversified and a free market, and we can adapt.
Incorrect.
Bailouts had nothing to do with type of vehicles and everything to do with borrowing/lending on rapidly depreciating assets like houses and cars at grossly inflated prices.
The problem is grossly inflated prices. The solution is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.
My comments have nothing to do with bailouts. Take my comments just as you read them.
I agree with what you said above. I disagree that fuel efficiency, while desirable, is not near the top of list of priorities.
(1) Top priority is putting an end to the assault against the Constitution of the United States. (2) The next priority is individual liberty.
Then you have things like (3) putting a tough check on the Federal Reserve, (4) prosecuting and jailing corrupt politicians, lobbyists and financiers, (5) term limits for all of Congress, (6) suspending the rights of lawyers to practice law if said lawyers work within the DC Beltway and nearby environs, (7) a reward system that rewards citizenry for ethical and moral behavior rather than despicable behavior, (8) a free market healthcare system, (9) an education system that rewards good educators rather than politicians and administrators, (10) a curb in the frequency of use of social media, particularly in public places and particularly in moving vehicles, (11) TORT REFORM, (12) Reduction in the size of government - a reduction of 1% of each department annually for 20 at minimum.
Those dozen are just for starters.
“I disagree that fuel efficiency, while desirable, is not near the top of list of priorities.”
Correction:
“is near”
Pickup(s) and SUV(s) got popular again with fuel under $3/gal, but that trend looks to be reversing as these vehicles are now being traded-in for more efficient ones. These heavier used vehicles are selling for $24k+ and have 100,000-miles+, so the best engine and drive-train warranties are history. For those on a $12k budget these same vehicles with 200,000-miles are plentiful. Insanity, IMHO.
This is a good point rms. The higher fleet fuel efficiency might not have come about without the auto bailout. One stipulation of the trade-off of the bailout was that auto manufacturers build more fuel-efficient and alternative fuel vehicles (hence, the beautiful Chevy Volt). That had the effect of lifting the average fuel efficiency of US vehicles sold in the US from 20 mpg in 2008 to 25 mpg as of late. We are now at the highest fuel efficiency ever. Whether the auto manufacturers an the American public realize this or not, it has been good for them. Less money spent on fuel means more money saved for consumers, a cleaner environment, and less dependency on oil from unfriendly states. And, the US has massively upped its own production. Scraping this regulation may feel good for some ideologues, but it risks another economic shock when oil prices turn upward.
Scraping this regulation may feel good for some ideologues, but it risks another economic shock when oil prices turn upward.
It’s about more than feeling good. When the ideologues on the left get these things put through, they always set goals that are not possible without almost eliminating the vehicles most consumers want.
You are right that we do get some meaningful improvements from this process but the pendulum needs to swing both ways to keep things realistically possible.
The goals as they stand now are realistic and they will not force consumers to abandon SUVs or trucks:
“Although many car companies said earlier this year that they would support the then-proposed CAFE goals, grumbling has ensued. Automakers have resisted CAFE increases since the early 1980s, each time protesting that redesigns and technology improvements needed to reach the new targets would either be too difficult to engineer or too expensive to manufacture. An additional chorus has arisen this time around, along the lines of “Well, the companies can only achieve such a jump in efficiency if something like one-third of their fleet is made up of all-electric vehicles, to pull up the average, and the public will not buy that many electric cars.”"
“Both arguments are smokescreens.”
“Electric vehicles can certainly raise fleet averages. But changes to good ol’ gasoline-powered vehicles can achieve a great portion of the needed hike in fuel efficiency. The kicker is that many of the technology improvements have been sitting on auto industry shelves for years. And some of the improvements have already been rolled out in high-end gasoline vehicles and in standard hybrid cars.”
“In the past, independent engineering studies by experts at M.I.T., the University of Michigan, Argonne National Laboratory and the Natural Resources Defense Council have shown that gasoline-powered vehicles can get dramatically higher mileage by incorporating a number of incremental changes. Among them are continuously variable transmissions, which replace the inefficient gear-based transmissions cars have used for a century; starter-alternators that turn the engine off whenever the car is idling, saving gas whether the vehicle is stopped at a traffic light or rolling down a hill; direct fuel injectors that sip less gasoline than conventional fuel injectors; and regenerative braking, which converts friction at the wheels into electricity.”
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/can-cars-meet-the-new-54-mpg-cafe-standards-yes-they-can/
The real issue is that Scott Pruitt seems to be doing the bidding of the fossil fuel industry:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/02/22/oklahoma-attorney-generals-office-releases-7500-pages-of-emails-between-scott-pruitt-and-fossil-fuel-industry/?utm_term=.301e7879ab1a
“Gasoline powered” vehicles can do 54mpg. Big family vehicles can’t, even with all the improvements they are talking about. Which means that part of the solution is social engineering to force people into small economy cars. This is the kind of thing that gets people like Trump elected.
And what is wrong with people like Trump?
Just trying to explain in a way that should make sense to people who like to solve problems by dictating what products business can produce :-).
Now if you really want my personal list of likes and dislikes about Trump that’s a different conversation.
Carl, you need to read the article. This isn’t about social engineering, and it is indeed doable. Family vehicles can certainly get to the requirements in 7 years:
“Furthermore, although the new CAFE numbers sound high, they translate into less taxing goals on the road. The mileage ratings come from running cars on machinery in labs that do only a fair job of mimicking actual road conditions.”
“CAFE mpg still comes from the original pair of tests that are now widely viewed as bad predictors of real-world mpg. The 34.1 mpg CAFE target for 2016 is actually equal to only 26 mpg on a window sticker. The talked-about 2025 CAFE standard — usually described as 54.5 mpg — amounts to a figure of 36 mpg combined [highway and city driving] on a window sticker,” writes Dan Edmunds, director of vehicle testing at Edmunds.com, on the company’s detailed CAFE explainer. (The Edmunds.com site is widely recognized as the go-to place for investigating new and used cars and automotive technology.)
“So if you walk into a showroom in 2025 and see car with a sticker that says it gets 36 mpg “combined,” it meets the CAFE 54.5 mpg requirement. Suddenly the new rules don’t sound so difficult to attain.”
OK. If we’re judging on a scale where 54.5mpg equals 36mpg on a window sticker then it’s pretty tough for non-insiders to discuss. But it doesn’t exactly give me confidence that I should just accept that they know what’s best for me or the industry.
Ahhh, cupcakes! $$$$$$$$$$$$
Happy Easter alphonso bedoya
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ul1Gz-zsSIg
It always pays to read the prior thread.
Deferred Maintenance:
Here’s the original post. Here’s the Wikipedia description. Since I am misinformed, show me in their published documents where they want to exterminate Christians.
FWIW, my wife is a Roman Catholic. At issue is who this Law Center defends. It defends Blacks.
It’s Ben’s prerogative to let it roll. I’m allergic to Devout Bigots. I live in a city built on bureaucratic corruption.
You and I had disagreements about ZeroHedge. That was about it. Insecure people are bigots. You’re NOT insecure.
ZeroHedge was better two or three years ago before some crazy posts appeared.
My son’s wife was disowned by her Evangelical family. She told me never to argue or confront them. I thought directing a communication to Ben Taylor was best. Color me naive.
This was the post:
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-03-31 18:08:49
This Easter, remember that the Southern Poverty Law Center is an anti-Christian organization that wants to EXTERMINATE Christianity and Christians.
____________________________________________________
Wikipedia:
“The Southern Poverty Law Center is an American nonprofit legal advocacy organization specializing in civil rights and public interest litigation.”
Housing my good friend…. Housing.
Miramar Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/miramar-beach-fl/market-trends/
Check out:
Controversies over hate group and extremist listings
Finances
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Poverty_Law_Center
There’s two sides to every cow pattie.
Who is Ben Taylor?? I thought he was James Taylor’s son.
Mr. Jones
You did NOT address the exact quote I took issue with. You are taking the Law Center to task for their finances, are you not? Saying the financial arm of an organization is skimming money and saying they want to kill your Christian family is a wee bit different.
Happy Easter
Well, here’s some stuff on their finances:
http://freebeacon.com/issues/southern-poverty-law-center-transfers-millions-in-cash-to-offshore-entities/
It is my understanding that the Southern Poverty Law Center used to do some very good and very necessary work on behalf of minority clients in the South.
But that appears to have changed. Now it’s all about labeling and monitoring people and groups who don’t agree with their views, and even going so far as to contact their employers, getting them fired, bankrupting them through the legal system.
Apparently they do have issues with certain Catholic groups:
https://www.catholicleague.org/the-politics-of-hate-crimes/
Deffered Maintenance
May your weather be as nice as down South.
Happy Easter
‘You did NOT address the exact quote I took issue with’
Not trying to be rude but that’s because I don’t care. Life is too short for this sort of negativity.
Life is too short for arguing nonstop about politics.
The real problem is that life is too short. And mortgages are too long.
Don’t get a mortgage. Problem solved!
There’s a dearth…. a flood of everything… Cars, breweries, houses, commodities stockpiles and not a buyer in sight for any of it.
Lyme, CT Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/lyme-ct/market-trends/
‘Fifteen years ago, there were fewer than 10 incubators and only one accelerator in the U.S.,’ he says. ‘Today, there are over 1,400 combined. This overabundance of incubators and accelerators is creating an overabundance of start-ups. I am also starting to see some start-ups living incubator to incubator, which makes me wonder why it didn’t successfully incubate the first time.’ His other concern is that these competitions are becoming entertainment. ‘I call it the Shark Tank effect,’ says Trice. ‘One competition had start-ups make presentations to funders while they jumped out of an airplane.’
Too much cheese, grain, beer, jets, luxury this and that. One is tempted to think this must be connected somehow. Like there’s trillions of yellen bucks looking for a place to die.
“Like there’s trillions of yellen bucks looking for a place to die.”
That definitely, plus the evaporation of non-service jobs during the past 40 years.
Those Yellen bucks would be better spent improving infrastructure than on non-productive, wealth-siphoning pipe dreams such as craft breweries. And luxury housing that is going to rot and eventually be torn down at very high cost.
I guess the farm cycle has a way to go
I hold nth and it seems to be trending up
‘Prices for farmland declined across Minnesota in 2017, another sign of a weak farm economy that’s been plagued by low crop prices and reduced incomes for the past four years. Experts say many farmers are dealing with land values about 20 percent lower than when the market peaked in about 2012, when commodity prices were historically high. For 2017, numbers based on fiscal year sales data reported to the Minnesota Department of Revenue and analyzed by the University of Minnesota showed that the median price per acre of farmland was $4,625, down 5.4 percent from the previous year.’
“Land values are an important part of a farmer’s equity, so obviously that land component is an important part of a farmer’s collateral,” said Bruce Peterson, a former president of the Minnesota Corn Growers Association who farms near Northfield. “If that drops 30 percent, then it makes for a much more sticky situation for people in a tighter situation financially.”
‘At greatest financial risk are those who purchased farmland at record-high levels five or six years ago, said Mike Petefish, president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association.’
“Falling prices are a double-edged sword,” said Petefish, who farms near Claremont in southern Minnesota. “For those that bought high-priced land and they’re using that as part of a net worth statement or collateral, certainly a decrease in land prices may strain some of those ratios and numbers that banks use to make operating loans.”
‘Lenders say that producers have increasingly needed to rebalance their debts and stretch out loan payments as commodity prices sank in 2014 and have remained low. Soybean prices have dropped by one-third since 2013 and corn prices are down by nearly half, well below the cost of production for many farmers.’
‘If you ask a farmer, agricultural economist, ag banker or ag real estate agent about Upper Midwest farmland rental rates, the response probably will include two words: “Downward pressure.”
‘By all accounts, poor crop prices and marginal farm profitability are pushing down what farmers will pay to rent farmland. As a result, most farmland rental rates negotiated this winter “are flat or going down” from what they had been, says Noah Hultgren, a Willmar, Minn., farmer and real estate agent.’
‘How much rates fall — and even if they fall — will vary across the region and even from community to community, says Andrew Swenson, veteran North Dakota State University Extension farm management specialist. But one thing holds true just about everywhere. “They’re not going up,” he says.’
‘Tight margins are the norm in agriculture right now. We are one of the many operations that walked away from land rental contracts since harvest. It is hard to walk away from any farm, but especially so after 12 years. There was a lot of time, energy, and resources invested. Over the years, we had installed irrigation, cleared fencerows, done drainage work, and more.’
‘However, this was not unforeseen. All businesses must review their operation. Farmers are no different, we must know what is supporting the operation and what is dragging you down. I had just scraped by on that parcel the last couple of years. A torrential summer rain, followed by root rot, caused stalk lodging and ate up any extra margin in 2016. Yields were better in 2017, but low prices kept revenue low.’
‘Historically, this farm was the lowest returning properties we had. In dry years, the corners would burn up, and in wet years, the muck would never dry out. The worst years were wet followed by dry.’
‘Based on yield history and current commodity prices, I made an offer for 2018. Initially it was received in a positive light; however, offers from other operators were solicited. At least one of them came in higher. The landowner and I negotiated a value to buy out my irrigation equipment and we parted ways. Last week we had a mild day so we retrieved a few odds and ends we had sitting on the property.’
‘Fortunately, our parting was amicable. I’ve heard of some operations that were just done with farms. They had determined not to re-rent properties no matter what the price, and declined to even make an offer. I’ve also heard of situations where rents went unpaid.’
“Based on yield history and current commodity prices, I made an offer for 2018.”
He did his homework.
“Initially it was received in a positive light; however, offers from other operators were solicited. At least one of them came in higher.”
Ooooops, somebody else did not do their homework, or if they did they came up with a more optomistic answer.
So, guess who it is that gets the farm? Guess who it is that sets the values of the comps? Is it the smartest or is it the guy who is the most optomistic?
The dry cleaner effect. There were something like 80 million acres of crop land created after the global QE. Obviously, a bunch of it needs to go away. Logically the marginal stuff would be first. But in a low return environment, 5% seems good, so they keep planting.
“80 million acres of crop land created after the global QE.”
It’s good to bear in mind that like oil reserves, the amount of farmland on the planet is effectively unlimited. Malthus made the mistake of limiting his imagination to farmland in England.
Indeed.
And like Rental Watch so eloquently puts it, “there’s a globe full of land where 95% of it goes undeveloped. There is no shortage of land.”
He’s right.
Castro Valley, CA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As Crime Envelopes Bay Area
https://www.movoto.com/castro-valley-ca/market-trends/
“And like Rental Watch so eloquently puts it, “there’s a globe full of land where 95% of it goes undeveloped. There is no shortage of land.””
LOL, what? Why are you attributing your own quotes to other commenters? Any shred of credibility you have is lost.
Hello my good friend.
Centreville, VA Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY On Rising Mortgage Fraud
https://www.movoto.com/centreville-va/market-trends/
Why don’t they just report the price paid as the value… like the banks did with FASB 157?
“Experts say many farmers are dealing with land values about 20 percent lower than when the market peaked in about 2012, when commodity prices were historically high.”
That’s a lot of down for an asset whose purchase is typically financed with massive leverage.
What’s worse, they’re still at nosebleed levels after the 20%. They have another 50% or so to fall.
Whoops, tnh
Mom-n-Pop want someone to make them whole again.
“The China Hustle - Official Trailer”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55892jT06aI
That was a good trailer. I’m going to somehow find a way to watch the movie (for free, of course 😁).
It’s on the movie app WatchASAP.com. That will be my entertainment for the evening.
Seems like the Big Short adapted to investment in China.
Gee, no one could have seen that one coming.
Tank you for dat.
A movie review …
https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2018/03/30/review-the-china-hustle/#5fd377ff3357
Great review. Here’s the thing, Combo. Remember the stories of Bin Salman’s “corruption cleansing” in Saudi? People think that can never happen here. Well, lots of things have happened in the US that people never thought would happen. That program, as I understand it, was carried out by Erik Prince of Blackwater fame. And brother of Betsy DeVos, Trump cabinet member.
Now, I doubt if Erik would conduct such a program in the US on account of he’s an American citizen. But a funny thing happened on the way to globalization. The US spy orgs started using the spy facilities and personnel of other countries to do the jobs Americans shouldn’t or wouldn’t do. So I imagine some sort of exchange program could be worked out with Saudi, with their equivalent of Erik Prince.
Could it happen here? I dunno, stay tuned.
And this happened right after which event in Las Vegas?
Put the stories of these mercs helping to carry out torture on some of the men in The 4 Seasons + ISIS claiming credit and you have the beginnings of something interesting.
Corporate Shill, Bingo! Nice job of connecting some dots. Didn’t even think of that one.
Too much student loans:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/29/these-are-the-ways-student-loans-stop-people-from-buying-a-house.html
Too much bitcoin. I wonder if some of the sell off might be related to margin calls on declining tech stocks. In any event more bad news for the Bay area. Bitcoin mining in the area stopped months ago as the price of electricity to produce one exceeded the coin’s value. Now people in the area are losing money on their stash of coins. I am sure they will declare the losses on the coins to the taxman even if they did not tell about their gains. The wealth effect has turned very negative in the area.
“Bitcoin mining in the area stopped months ago as the price of electricity to produce one exceeded the coin’s value.”
Which means the number of these bitcoins in existence (if that term even applies in this case) should tend to remain stable which means the prices of these bitcoins should rise if the demand for the bitcoins rises because the forces of supply and demand will prevail.
Or, if demand drops off it will not make any difference how many bitcoins are in existence (again, if that term even applies in this case) which means the price of bitcoins should drop down over time and approach it’s intrinsic value which by all logical calculations is zero.
Simply put, they’re worthless.
Fortunately, very few people nationwide “invested” in bitcoin.
Seems a good number of Californians fell for the scam. Greedy, self-aggrandizing people do stoopid things.
70% of BitCoin investors are male. Chalk up a win for the two X chromosomes in avoiding this debacle.
The two X chromosome crowd has just as large a problem, but from the other extreme: “investments” that are so conservative as to be non-wealth generating.
The sky-is-falling Cash Only and/or Treasuries/CD crowd has also had their @sses handed to them over the past 20 years.
Women investors typically do better than men, and they aren’t risk averse, nor do they cling to cash/treasuries:
“Take risk-profiling. Surveys show that men’s attitudes to risk are typically more gung-ho, whereas women are more likely to buy and hold, which leads advisers to conclude that men are less risk-averse. And men are more likely to say that they understand financial concepts, which might seem to suggest that they are more financially literate.”
“But it may be more accurate to say that women are more risk-aware and less deluded about their financial competence. A study in 2001 by Brad Barber and Terrance Odean, academics in the field of behavioural finance, showed that women outperformed men in the market by one percentage point a year. The main reason, they argued, was that men were much more likely to be overconfident than women, and hence to carry out unprofitable trades.”
“Another difference is that men are more likely to say that outperforming the market is their top investment goal, whereas women tend to mention specific financial goals, such as buying a house or retiring at 60. Affluent women are more likely to seek financial advice and fewer direct their own investments compared with men, according to Cerulli, a research firm.”
https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21738388-much-wealth-transferred-coming-decades-will-end-up-female
“…and fewer direct their own investments compared with men,…”
This is surprising, given their supposed superior investing acumen.
In my immediate family, the women either have no interest or hate dealing with financial investment issues. And the vast majority of people I know or have known in my life who work as financial planners or advisors are male. Not trying to suggest my personal experience is the general case…
I think the key take-away is that women investors are less likely to be active investors than men. They know the limits of their expertise and their egos don’t get in the way of them taking foolish bets. They also probably don’t have knee jerk reactions to every little thing they hear on CNBC.
There are no differences between men and women, get with the program!
We’ll I guess that makes me a woman investor, then. I also sometimes drive our family van, which is definitely a woman’s car.
I knew a woman once who was pretty smart with money. She spent all of mine, then left.
I knew a woman once who was pretty smart with money. She spent all of mine, then left.
That was hilarious! But, I’m sorry about that too! My dad was dating a girl (much younger than him) and he was contemplating breaking up with her because he said she didn’t understand money. I said to him, “Oh, I think she understands it alright. She understands that you have it, and that she is going to do whatever necessary to get it.” He didn’t really appreciate the comment, but it was the truth.
“…dating a girl (much younger than him)…”
Sounds like she was very financially astute!
My favorite salacious tale of an older gentleman befriending a much younger, financially astute female came from my music circle where I used to live. He was a department store mogul; she was a violin student at the local conservatory of modest talent and above-average sex appeal. They ended up married, despite a flagrant violation of the half-your-age-plus-seven rule, and that he was already married to a woman much closer to his age at the outset of the new relationship.
Rumor has it that he had a heart attack in the bedroom, leaving his young wife a very generous inheritance.
“I am a marvelous housekeeper. Every time I leave a man I keep his house.” - Zsa Zsa Gabor
The game men play is money. The game women play is men.
“…the number of these bitcoins in existence (if that term even applies in this case) should tend to remain stable which means the prices of these bitcoins should rise if the demand for the bitcoins rises…”
According to the Law of Supply, a rising price suggests that it might again pencil out to mine Bitcoin relative to electricity costs, resulting in new mining and increased supply.
Albeit that like oil, the total amount of Bitcoin that could ever be mined is supposedly fixed. Except that the ability to create a new cryptocurrency on a whim for a song suggests there will always be an unlimited supply of indistinguishable close substitutes.
“Bitcoin mining in the area stopped months ago as the price of electricity to produce one exceeded the coin’s value.”
The Bitcoin crash is definitely benefiting the Planet.
Murphy, TX Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Dallas Area Market Experiences Correction
https://www.movoto.com/murphy-tx/market-trends/
“It also may have helped a bit, but it didn’t stop farmers from continuing to produce. For eight straight years, the United States has set a new record for milk production. Stockpiles of crops are also at an all-time high. The amount of surplus wheat, corn and soybeans sitting in grain bins across the world waiting to go to market has hit a record for each of the past three years, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.”
This situation seems like an artifact of the Bernanke-Yellen agricultural land bubble. With rents on astronomically priced agricultural land going skyward, producers have to produce more and more to cover operating costs. But since everyone is in this predicament, a glut of output coupled with a price collapse is the natural consequence. This makes it hard to cover operating costs. Stagflation is a likely future development.
Chalk it up to the agribusiness version of the dry cleaner effect.
PS A trade war could worsen the situation considerably, by eliminating markets or at least further depressing prices American farmers get for their export produce.
In 2016, the U.S. government bought $20 million worth of excess cheese that no one else wanted to buy to help hold up depressed dairy prices. It also may have helped a bit, but it didn’t stop farmers from continuing to produce.
So…we subsidized it. And we didn’t get less of it.
Buying excess cheese stimulates excess production. It also generates some extra cash the farmers can use to make campaign contributions to Congress members who support these policies.
TRENDING TOPICS
Why the USDA Shouldn’t Be Buying Up Surplus Cheese
The feds are bailing out dairy producers. Here’s why that’s a terrible and wasteful mistake.
Baylen Linnekin | August 27, 2016
Cheeseshelleylyn / CC BY-SAOn Monday, Politico reported that farm “lobbyists have been laboring for months” to try to secure tens of millions of dollars in federal aid for their members, who are struggling thanks to a combination of overproduction and low commodity prices.
We’re “pushing both Congress and the USDA to assist producers,” said Zack Clark, a lobbyist for the National Farmers Union, to Politico.
In addition to the NFU, those who’ve been shaking cups in the nation’s capital include lobbyists from the American Farm Bureau and the National Milk Producers Federation. The aid they’ve sought centers on increasing the amount of wheat present in shipments of foreign food aid, expanding loans to farmers, and getting more cash in the hands of dairy producers.
By Tuesday, aid for dairy farmers was already a done deal. All that vigorous cup-shaking had turned into $20 million in USDA purchases of surplus cheese. That’s on top of the $11 million in additional support for dairy producers the USDA announced earlier this month.
“That’s mad cheese,” writes the Arizona Republic’s Louie Villalobos.
Mad cheese. And madness.
…
“dairy products, which are experiencing sustained price depression after enjoying historic highs just four years ago.”
It’s interesting how, as volatility has been suppressed in the stock market, it pops up elsewhere. Record highs to sustained depression in just four years in dairy products. Compton houses making 100% to 400%+ price swings every few years. Oil, taxi medallions, concert tickets, commodities of all kinds have had huge volatility since Greenspan’s Great Moderation began trying to suppress the business cycle in markets, instead transferring volatility to every day life.
You even see this in blink-and-you-miss-it flash sales and dynamic pricing models of late. Something was 50% off yesterday and now it’s full price today, maybe 25% off tomorrow. So much for price stability as half of the Fed’s dual mandate….
“Greenspan’s Great Moderation began trying to suppress the business cycle in markets, instead transferring volatility to every day life.”
Bingo. Apparently this particular form of idiocy has taken deep root in the central banking cartel.
I came here hoping to see a nice April Fools headline like “Suzanne was right all along!” but today’s is actually pretty good and thought provoking.
Let me mull on things for a bit and I’ll try and write a short post trying together most of Ben’s tidbits for today. It’s something I’ve been thinking about a lot for years now, and I think it’ll resonate.
Have a good Easter Y’all and spend it in the company of people you like.
Look forward to your post. Meanwhile, eat, drink and be merry…
> Meanwhile, eat, drink and be merry…
Unfortunately, I’m currently doing the low-carb/very low sugar thing in order to lose some excess mass gained over the last year.
Today is mostly about getting caught up on random stuff for me due to a end-of-quarter deadline.
“Have a good Easter Y’all and spend it in the company of people you like.”
I can’t, both of them are in jail.
A friend of mine says the Southern Poverty Law Center is an anti-Christian organization that wants to exterminate Christianity and Christians.
Happy Easter
He has risen, defeated death and paid our price. He owed nothing….. In Jesus name.
Happy Easter to all
Jeff
I think you meant to post as Apt 401 again…..or are you Obama Goons, also ?
I once had lunch with Apt 401 and Obama goons, they were both nice guys.
alphonso bedoya
Had I seen what was written above I would have dropped it.
I hope you, your family and all those who come here and add enjoyment and education to my life had a safe and Happy Easter.
“had a safe and Happy Easter”
Especially our host Ben Jones
That “China Hustle” made me remember the…
Harlem Shuffle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAkMTu6q2pY
Happy Easter
Charleston apartment supply outpaces demand and rents are forecast to fall
“Loads of new apartments are coming online, being built or are in the pipeline for the Charleston region.
But during the past six months, supply outpaced demand and could eventually bring down rental rates, according to Charlotte-based apartment research firm Real Data.
Occupancy in the Charleston area dropped to slightly less than 89 percent, its lowest level since 2010.”
From the (very few) comments:
“A person in town earning $10 hr and fortunate to work a 40 hr week grosses $400 a week, or $1600 a month.
My guess is the avg gross is closer to $330 a week, before taxes, or $1320 a week. Where, exactly, in the metro area, are there affordable apts for people in this income range? I understand apt sharing, living at home, but this is terrible. Very difficult indeed to find a house for sale under $200k, and how did that happen?
No present or future planned apt complex anywhere in the state should be approved until at least 25-33% if not more, are set aside for lower-income, rent-controlled places. Period.
We’re only as strong as our weakest link. We are leaving an entire working generation behind. This is not good.”
I don’t think that second sentence should start with “But”.
My personal market timing experience, in a nutshell:
1) The times I waited on the sidelines for a crash that seemed obvious, inevitable, and iminent, it never came.
2) Most of the times I tried to buy the dip after a crash, I was either too early or missed the boat compared to the trough when buying would have been optimal.
3) The few times my timing turned out well in retrospect were cases where nobody could have seen it coming prospectively.
Predicting future market movements is hard!
“Predicting future market movements is hard!”
That’s because the matrix egg you were raised in had the “free market” inculcation programming while reality is graft, corruption and bailouts.
That is part of the problem. Markets behave these days as though they are controlled by a few men behind the curtain with virtually unlimited financial fire power at their disposal to drive prices in the direction of their choosing, rather than how one would expect free markets responding to fundamental information to behave.
Well, that China Hustle documentary was a real eye-opener, although quite frankly, I always knew that China was more or less a paper tiger and that the US would come to rue the day we ever opened our markets to them.
Although in all fairness, as the movie pointed out, the small Chinese companies did not necessarily mis-represent themselves. It was the stateside fraudsters that did that.
“Although in all fairness, as the movie pointed out, the small Chinese companies did not necessarily mis-represent themselves. It was the stateside fraudsters that did that.”
Easy pickings. Americans = low hanging fruit.
A nation of dummies.
I frankly don’t know how the Fed can raise rates to normal levels without financially sinking a large number of highly leveraged American households and firms.
One might argue that ten years of near ZIRP created the incentives for a broad swath of American consumers and corporate managers to become accustomed to living high on the credit hog. All good things must come to an end.
1 in 5 Americans have more credit-card debt than savings
By Maria LaMagna
Published: Feb 25, 2018 4:58 p.m. ET
Consumers are putting saving on the back burner
…
people with money seem to have lucked out in the housing lottery or have gotten rich via stocks.
people with real jobs haven’t seen much of a recovery.
Years ago a friend told me, “The people with the money make the money.”
Elon Musk✔
@elonmusk
10h
Tesla Goes Bankrupt
Palo Alto, California, April 1, 2018 — Despite intense efforts to raise money, including a last-ditch mass sale of Easter Eggs, we are sad to report that Tesla has gone completely and totally bankrupt. So bankrupt, you can’t believe it.
“So bankrupt, you can’t believe it.”
That’s Silicon Valley right there… nothing of intrinsic value. The rented office furniture and potted plants will be removed during evening hours.
rms, so true. Nothing is as it seems. The self-driving cars are a bust, Tesla is a death trap. Amazon operates at a loss, even though subsidized by the taxpayer. Facebook? LOL! A fraudulent data mining operation. Apple? What a joke. It provides the devices that enable all the tracking and data mining. Who needs ankle bracelets?
I will submit that Google provides a search service and content via YouTube, but that is offset by their own data mining and massive spying and censoring operation. Netflix maybe provides some decent entertainment. Paypal provides a useful payment service.
But, yeah, Silicon Valley is mostly fraud.
It just occurred to me why all the H1B visas in the US. The stated reason is that they are cheaper to employ. However, there are jobs that some, maybe even many, Americans won’t do, such as spying and collecting data on their fellow Americans, for nefarious purposes. The H1Bs in the so-called “private sector” serve much the same purpose as foreign intelligence personnel serve for the CIA, NSA, FBI, etc.
However, there are jobs that some, maybe even many, Americans won’t do, such as spying and collecting data on their fellow Americans, for nefarious purposes.
There are always local people willing to sell out their neighbors for a steady paycheck. But the few that are really talented AND have no morals or ethics can find bigger paydays elsewhere.
Any thoughts on why U.S. stock market futures are sinking like a steamy turd in a tub of ice water?
smart money selling to lemmings?
The Wall Street Journal
U.S. Markets
U.S. Futures Point to Fall Amid Trade Worries
Asian markets fall after China imposes tariffs on U.S. goods
By Kosaku Narioka and Suryatapa Bhattacharya
Updated April 2, 2018 7:58 a.m. ET
U.S. stocks looked set to follow Asian markets lower Monday amid global trade tensions and concerns over the tech sector.
Futures pointed to a 0.5% decline for the S&P 500 as Wall Street was poised to return from the Easter holiday weekend, following similar declines in Asian stock markets. European markets remained closed on Monday.
…
Another day, another incipient drop in U.S. stocks…
Ready for stagflation?
FINANCIAL TIMES
Chinese trade
China slaps retaliatory tariffs on American food
Beijing to impose duties on 128 US products including nuts, pork, fruit and wine
…
did u know homeowners are setting on a record 5.4 trillion in equity?
The headline to this article mentions “one major problem with stocks”, but a bevy of problems are discussed in the body.
Investors have this one major problem with stocks right now
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Apr 2, 2018 7:41 a.m. ET
Critical information for the U.S. trading day
Courtesy Everett Collection
More than 40% of investors surveyed by RBC Capital think stocks are too rich.
Happy new week, new month and new quarter.
Resarch shows that April tends to be a winner for stocks, something investors would love to see after such dismal stock performances last week, last month and last quarter. They may need to move past two big distractions first: trade and tech-regulation worries. And both are at the forefront again Monday.
China has upped the trade-war ante by rolling out more than 100 tariffs against U.S. goods. Then there’s that Trump tweetstorm that some can’t stop talking about, where the President dials up his attack on Amazon and threatens to “stop Mexico’s cash flow” by cancelling NAFTA.
“So again, that sets the stage for God only knows what for Amazon this week and it exacerbates an already tense situation on trade by underscoring the notion that Washington cannot be relied upon to negotiate because America is being led by someone who spends Easter Sunday screaming at Mexico on Twitter,” says the anonymous blogger behind the Heisenberg Report.
But this stock market might have another problem on its hands, says our call of the day from RBC Capital’s head of equity strategy, Lori Calvasina: Investors think stocks are still too expensive and their caution can’t be ignored.
“Investors don’t see attractive valuations,” said Calvasina, who unveiled the results of her firm’s latest investor survey. The poll showed that just 16% see stocks as attractive, while 43% see them as expensive/very expensive.
“We are still constructive on stocks on a 6-12 month time horizon, but the lack of valuation appeal in the eyes of investors makes us a little more cautious in the near term,” she said.
…
multiple expansion can only last so long folks. Seems like the only buyers are via corporate buybacks and central banks.
Corporate buybacks will quickly go out of fashion if rates normalize.