Demand Couldn’t Keep Up With Construction
A report from the Commercial Observer. “Freddie Mac has been a trailblazer when it comes to affordable multifamily housing, delivering record numbers and leading the nation as the top multifamily financier in each of the last three years. David Leopold is at the forefront of Freddie’s presence in the affordable housing space, which accounted for 83 percent of eligible units financed by the government-sponsored enterprise in 2017. Q: Can you speak to the increased demand for multifamily and how Freddie Mac is looking to fill it?”
“A: Demand is insatiable in much of the country right now. Those areas—you know, the high-barrier to entry markets—are experiencing dramatic affordability crises and the challenge is not finding people to full the units, it’s finding enough units to accommodate that demand.”
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “North Texas apartment demand couldn’t keep up with construction in the first quarter. RealPage estimates that net D-FW apartment leasing totaled 1,721 units in the first three months of 2018. Apartment demand fell way short of the 6,972 new rental units that opened their doors in the first quarter. ‘As in the nation as a whole, Dallas-Fort Worth’s performance got off to a rough start in 2018,’ RealPage chief economist Greg Willet said. ‘That seasonally slow leasing period is more difficult to deal with when the new product delivery volume is peaking.’”
“An additional 32,379 apartments are still under construction in North Texas. ‘That future supply is by far the biggest block of product on the way nationally. With so much new supply coming on stream, even a short period of sluggish demand can do some real damage,’ Willett said. ‘It’s difficult to maintain pricing power in such a competitive leasing environment.’”
From the Post and Courier in South Carolina. “Loads of new apartments are coming online, being built or are in the pipeline for the Charleston region. But during the past six months, supply outpaced demand and could eventually bring down rental rates, according to Charlotte-based apartment research firm Real Data. Occupancy in the Charleston area dropped to slightly less than 89 percent, its lowest level since 2010. Currently, 1,959 units are under construction in the region’s central submarket — and 1,795 more are proposed in the same area. Hundreds of others are planned throughout the rest of the tri-county region.”
“New supply coming to market over the next year will exceed demand, causing vacancies to rise, the firm said. ‘During this time, rent growth will slow as communities will likely offer reduced rents in an effort to compete for renters,’ according to Real Data.”
The Real Deal on Florida. “Miami is inching closer to falling off the list of the country’s most expensive cities to rent. Now, Miami remains No. 10 but rents are down 3.4 percent on a monthly basis and 3.9 percent compared to the previous year. Rates may be dropping now due to the rise in inventory. Nearly 16,000 apartments were slated to come online in South Florida in 2017, according to a Marcus & Millichap report. Across the country, apartment rents fell 8.9 percent to $1,184 for one-bedroom units, while rents rose 1.1 percent to $1,414 for a two-bedroom, according to the report.”
From Bisnow on DC. “Apartment buildings with more social amenities, such as pools, fitness centers and clubrooms, have sold for significantly less than those with fewer social amenities in a major U.S. market over the last five years, a new study shows. Newmark Knight Frank studied all 124 apartment buildings that have delivered in the last three years and all 26 communities that have sold over the last five years in the D.C. Metro area and detailed the precise impact different levels of amenities and designs had on rent, lease-up pace and sale price.”
“The most striking conclusion, Newmark Knight Frank Senior Managing Director of Market Research Greg Leisch said, was that buildings with five or more social amenities sold for $31,867 per unit less than projects with four or fewer social amenities. The most common social amenities it found were fitness centers, meeting and party rooms, pools, rooftop lounges, dog runs, fire pits and indoor and outdoor athletic courts.”
“The report concluded that apartments with fewer of these social amenities actually sold for an average of a 7.6% premium over those with more social amenities. ‘That was the surprise to us,’ Leisch said. ‘We thought it was common sense that the more social amenities a project had, it would probably fetch a higher sale price.’”
From the Wall Street Journal. “The apartment rental market softened in the first quarter, but not as much as expected given a surge in new supply. The apartment vacancy rate edged up to 4.7% in the first quarter, up from 4.6% in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to data released by Reis Inc. The vacancy rate jumped from 4.3% a year earlier.”
“Still, the market has proved to be resilient, given a flood of new supply from developers hoping to cash in from the strong growth rate earlier in the recovery. Nearly 59,000 units per quarter were added in 2017, compared to the historical average of around 34,000 units per quarter. The U.S. added about 1.5 million new owner households in 2017, while the number of renter households actually declined by 76,000—a potentially worrying sign for landlords looking to fill large numbers of new apartments.”
‘Nearly 59,000 units per quarter were added in 2017…the number of renter households actually declined by 76,000′
‘net D-FW apartment leasing totaled 1,721 units in the first three months of 2018. Apartment demand fell way short of the 6,972 new rental units that opened their doors in the first quarter’
‘Across the country, apartment rents fell 8.9 percent to $1,184 for one-bedroom units’
As you can see, these guys are fooked.
From the same paper re: commercial property…this writer is more of a glass half full kinda guy.
‘D-FW dodges overbuilding thanks to steady flow of new jobs’
“He points out that D-FW has added more than 422,000 jobs since 2013, with more than 40,000 increased employment in the local office sector.
About 40 percent of the office buildings under construction in North Texas are already spoken for by tenants. And 50 percent of the warehouses being built are already leased.”
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2018/04/02/d-fw-dodges-overbuilding-thanks-new-jobs
What about the other 60% of office buildings? And of the 40% that are spoken for, you gotta think some of those tenants are gonna be vacating their present offices. Should be interesting.
even right in the core Plano, TX area there are a few empty buildings. Within a mile of both Toyota and Liberty mutual.
In a hotel bar last week, someone was claiming that the JC Penny’s campus was close to being sold.
Big companies build for their needs. I have no idea who will pay top $s for high end commercial A
And how many of those 400K new jobs are in the construction and real estate industry? A whole lot, I’m betting. Someone recently mentioned the metaphor of a snake eating its own tail, and this is really the epitome of that image: workers build multi-family housing to house workers who build more multi-family housing. As soon as things go a little south, that house of cards will go poof.
“…a snake eating its own tail…”
End result: endogenous collapse
Ben - busting all the narratives today.
MFR demand is high with no end in sight.
Amenities add value.
Ouch.
‘buildings with five or more social amenities sold for $31,867 per unit less than projects with four or fewer social amenities….‘That was the surprise to us’
Maybe you apartment people should spend more time in the real world than at cocktail parties. It does give a glimpse of how this luxury thing could shake out. Last week I posted another report saying it doesn’t cost any more to build a luxury than non-luxury apartment. If the resale price is less, and these things have to refinance every 5 years or so, a bunch of them will walk. Basically it looks to me like the luxury apartment boom is collapsing.
Does anybody else have family or friends who deny the truth (which is supported by the above data), loudly proclaiming that everybody wants to live in luxury condos and apartments? This crash can’t come fast enough.
Castro Valley, CA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As Crime Envelopes Bay Area
https://www.movoto.com/castro-valley-ca/market-trends/
Is now a good time to BTFD?
Always, it’s always a good time to BTFD. Use as much leverage as you can to do so.
‘CEO Elon Musk sure has some hardcore fans. Average investors should look to their behavior as one reason to stay clear of Tesla’s plunging stock. On April Fool’s Day, the big-thinking Musk tweeted about a potential bankruptcy filing for the electric carmaker. Musk’s Twitter ridiculousness (an ongoing theme) prompted a rare response from yours truly.’
‘But in this case, Musk’s tweet just struck a nerve. Tesla is bleeding cash, the stock is down 21% in the past month, it’s having trouble making cars, the National Transportation Safety Board is looking at the company after a fatal crash and it’s likely sitting on a weak sales report to be released this week. Yet here is Mr. Hyperloop making a mockery of what it means to (1) be a leader; and (2) be a leader of a public company.’
‘Legions of people remain convinced Musk will change the world not only at Tesla, but also via SpaceX. It’s this same group that has probably bought the stock on blind hope rather than studying the fundamentals of the company and auto industry. It will be this same group that’s left holding the bag as Wall Street loses faith in Musk & Co. after a challenging start to 2018.’
https://www.thestreet.com/story/14541299/1/how-tesla-fanatics-responded-to-my-tweet-say-it-all-about-the-stock.html
‘Elon Musk
Verified account @elonmusk
Elon was found passed out against a Tesla Model 3, surrounded by “Teslaquilla” bottles, the tracks of dried tears still visible on his cheeks.
This is not a forward-looking statement, because, obviously, what’s the point?
Happy New Month!’
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/980566116614291456/photo/1
A reply:
Are we alone?
@ANDROME50966824
Replying to @elonmusk
‘Elon you still have SpaceX and I think its more important sorry for bad English im just 14 years old from finland SpaceX is more important for future if you don’t do your mars mission i don’t know when we become multiplanetary you have inspired me so much :)’
I think this is the tennis camp guy.
Nah, I think it’s Star Kid. And Musk’s tweets were actually an April Fool’s joke that hit a little too close to home.
Speaking of stock, Mr. Market is down 500 again today, likely due to China’s 128 new tarrifs. I don’t think people much care about fresh peaches or prok bellies. It’s more a portent of what China could do, like slap 25% on every iPhone.
It was a poorly chosen tweet from a narcissistic CEO of a company that is failing massively. When you look at Tesla’s finances, there is absolutely nothing good you can find. They are hemorrhaging cash with no end in sight.
One interesting example I found of their production problem:
Tesla = 15 cars per year / employee. Other manufacturers are at like 80+ per employee.
Tesla is having a difficult time both speeding up production, and lowering the cost of production. And this is from a company whose CEO promised “robots so fast you can’t see them.” When you look at their finances, and their quarterly numbers, there’s nothing to suggest it’s going to improve. They were just downgraded by Moody’s from stable to negative.
Their production problems just blow my mind. I mean, assembly lines to build cars have been a thing for many decades. What is so hard about this?
What is so hard about this?
I don’t know for sure. But I’m imagining tech guys who know how to get software released trying to run an assembly line and discovering it’s not the same.
‘tech guys ‘ - Isn’t that the story about Tesla, it is a tech company in the auto industry? Seems like GM would be able to take them over and sort the production issues out.
Probably any existing car company could. But odds are extremely high they would also kill the innovation goose laying the golden eggs.
With regards to Tesla, buy the car, not the stock.
Stock value is way too high to be justified by current revenue and operations. Maybe things will be different if plans to monetize supercharging network or implement ride sharing platform ever materialize.
Tesla’s capital costs are massive. This is because they have sunk enormous capital into the biggest battery factory in the world (with Panasonic). Financials will look dreary until they get to around 500,000 Model 3s. Any metric such as cars per employee or capital per vehicle will look poor at this stage of the build up. Notably, Tesla is not where they promised to be by this point (5000 Model 3s per week). Not too much a problem if they get there within the next quarter. A huge problem if they do not.
As to the slow manufacturing learning curve, this is absolutely a legitimate criticism. It may be that Elon Musk is over-engineering the manufacturing process and trying to rely too much on robots:
“According to the Bernstein analysts Max Warburton and Toni Sacconaghi, it’s the robots that can’t pump out Tesla’s highly anticipated Model 3s fast enough. The whole process is too ambitious, risky, and complicated.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robots-are-killing-it-2018-3
Having said all that, Tesla has a wonderful problem to have in that all of its cars its producing are being sold. According to reports, those still in line aren’t budging, and more are adding to the queue. It’s a good problem to have. Meanwhile, Honda just slowed down its manufacturing line last month because of low demand for its product, even though the Accord was north American car of the year.
tech guys
And theres your problem - they need some land whales with unspecified gender identities and short purple hair to show the world how to innovate.
#MeTooTech
Buy the car, not the stock…
I’m not dropping 35 large on a car where I need to plan out my refueling stops every couple of days. If I want to “save the environment,” I’ll spend the money on better insulation for my house.
You charge it while you’re sleeping, just like your phone. It’s just long trips that are the problem.
Do days like today send a chill of panic coursing through your veins?
Better reschedule that retirement date!
not gov workers
pension= date certain
401k= when it hits x
Pension isn’t that much. Someone with 25 years at $100K gets a $25K pension + SS. Livable, if you don’t need to live in a major city and don’t have any health problems.
$50K per year with virtually no income tax is just “livable”?
Lots of government workers with lots of defined contribution plan monies invested in stocks lost lots of money since the recent onset of volatility.
Do you mean Defined Benefit Plan?
Defined contribution is where everyone is his/her own fund manager, like 401k, 457b, etc. The same folks who learnt the stock market always goes up over the past few years are getting hammered on their stock market HODLings about now.
Oh right. I’m past the defined contribution stage and solidly in the defined asset/defined benefit phase. No stocks, no debt, no worries.
Blue, $50K is plenty livable. When I was unemployed a decade ago, I lived on about $25K post-tax, and that included $1000/month in rent and car payment. And I wasn’t terribly frugal either. But it’s *not* liveable for all those fund managers who think I’m going to need 80% of my salary during retirement.
I should talk to some retired fund managers to find out what *they* live on. Do they need 80% of their salary? (or more accurately, do they need $60-$70K, since their income was probably much higher).
80% of their salary…
I always thought this was ridiculous. Working; 45% of salary to taxes. 10% to savings. 30% to mortgage. Kids - priceless.
In retirement; no taxes, no mortgage, no kids, no commute, no savings. Two pairs of jeans.
Not at all. I love it when things become cheaper. Now if only new truck prices would come down massively.
Tumbling stawks = controlled demolition?
I heard a podcast recently where the interviewee said something to the effect that everyone when the market was rising kept saying “don’t fight the Fed” as justification for such a bullish sentiment (and price movement).
He asked the simple question…Doesn’t “don’t fight the Fed” work in the opposite direction too?
Yup, controlled demolition. Gotta get rid of the bloat and the massive fraud.
Buy That Dip! Buy That Dip!
Doesn’t “don’t fight the Fed” work in the opposite direction too?
That’s my assumption. I learned my lesson over the last 10 years.
Don’t fight the Fed’s punchbowl removal operations!
Realtors are liars.
…. and every closing a crime scene.
Raise taxes and lose population, LOLZ
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bs-ed-op-baltimore-census-20180330-story.html
“The city’s scary record of 343 homicides in 2017 affirms the city’s well-known reputation as a dangerous place to live. Even if 2018 has fewer homicides, it doesn’t take a fortune teller to predict that this year’s homicide rate will be high. Until the city substantially reduces its homicide and other crimes rates, people will continue to view the city as dangerous and be reluctant to stay or move here.”
This is a big reason, too. And do you know what the color of most of the murderers and their victims were? Yeah, nobody wants to talk about that inconvenient truth.
Thanks for sharing that article Apartment 401. Economics would predict that the city’s high city income tax rate coupled with high property tax rate would push down the value of the properties. I don’t know if this is the case, but if Baltimore wants to stop losing people, then housing needs to fall to where it is affordable, even when considering property tax and income tax. Otherwise, I’d do the same thing the author notes in his article:
“People have figured out how to avoid the city’s taxes and still enjoy the city. They live in surrounding counties and take reasonably priced ridesharing services into the city.”
even WORSE almost ALL ( over 95%) the homicides are with illegal guns not bought in stores or gunshows
Ever wonder why OHbahaa only went after gun show “loopholes”
The city’s scary record of 343 homicides in 2017 affirms the city’s well-known reputation as a dangerous place to live.
“The city’s outrageous property tax of $2.248 per $100 of a property’s assessed value is more than double of its surrounding jurisdictions.”
“The city’s high income tax is 3.2 percent, the maximum allowed by law.”
“The city’s public school system is a disaster.”
“The city’s aged infrastructure is terrible.”
“The mayor and the large part-time City Council are fiscally irresponsible.”
Did I miss anything?
“The city needs bold ideas, so I offer mine. The city should work with the Maryland legislature to turn City Hall and the Clarence M. Mitchell Jr. Courthouse into state museums by using both private and public funding.”
That oughta do it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bboEdSESuo8
‘Occupancy in the Charleston area dropped to slightly less than 89 percent, its lowest level since 2010. Currently, 1,959 units are under construction in the region’s central submarket — and 1,795 more are proposed in the same area. Hundreds of others are planned’
‘Demand is insatiable in much of the country right now. Those areas—you know, the high-barrier to entry markets—are experiencing dramatic affordability crises and the challenge is not finding people to full the units, it’s finding enough units to accommodate that demand’
David is in charge of rocket surgery at Freddie Mac. This statement is a good example of how we got into this mess. I’ve documented it time and again: crazy bubble talk, shortages, it’ll never end, etc.
Has there ever been a period in human history when we couldn’t build enough housing? Sure, if there’s a once in a lifetime gold rush or something you might have a temporary imbalance. But it always evens out.
From the Commercial Observer article:
———-
“affordable housing means a couple of different things. It means naturally occurring affordable, which is C, B-minus, product that just happens to be affordable, and then there’s targeted affordable, which is what my team focuses on. And when I say targeted affordable, I mean properties that have at least a portion of the units with rent restriction”
———-
So they are proud of financing projects where only a “portion” of the apartments are affordable. Which means that 80% of each building are luxe units being financed by the taxpayer.
I think they guarantee the debt. There are games with the “affordable” thing too. For instance, the low income tax credit is calculated by the median income of everybody in an area, not the media income of renters. So they include doctors and lawyers, etc.
The thing that bugs me is these apartment owners are rich. Why are we subsidizing them at all? And how much value add is guaranteed? Which turns stuff that “just happens to be affordable” into something more expensive. This is from an outfit where the whole purpose is supposed to be affordable housing!
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Galloping through the sward
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
And his horse Concorde
He steals from the rich
And gives to the poor
Mr. Moore, Mr. Moore, Mr. Moore
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Riding through the night
Soon every lupin in the land
Will be in his mighty hand
He steals them from the rich
And gives them to the poor
Mr. Moore, Mr. Moore, Mr. Moore
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Dum dum dum the night
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Dum de dum dum plight
He steals dum dum dum
And dum dum dum dee
Dennis dum, Dennis dee, dum dum dum
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Riding through the woods
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
With his bag of things
He gives to the poor
And he takes from the rich
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Riding through the land
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Without a merry band
He steals from the poor
And gives to the rich
Stupid bitch
http://www.metrolyrics.com/dennis-moore-lyrics-monty-python.html
The thing that bugs me is these apartment owners are rich. Why are we subsidizing them at all?
+100
“And now my lords, my ladies … your lupins, please.”
“The thing that bugs me is these apartment owners are rich. Why are we subsidizing them at all?”
This country subsidizes all of the wealthy. That’s the way it’s set up. Look at corporate farms, etc. It’s sickening.
Across the country, apartment rents fell 8.9 percent to $1,184 for one-bedroom units, while rents rose 1.1 percent to $1,414 for a two-bedroom,
In other words, nobody can afford a one-bed, so they are getting roommates and requesting a two-bed.
It’s a similar story with SFH. Class B SFH are being bought by rental companies and rented out to multiple families, especially to Hispanic illegal immigrants. LL doesn’t care how many incomes are pooled together as long as they make the rent. Plus the renters like the nearly unlimited free street parking.
I can easily tell the rental houses. Dirty falling siding, 60-year old windows, cracked driveways, makeshift driveways, badly-done garage conversions, unkempt landscaping, worn-out roofing, window air-conditioners, the works.
That’s what I mean by house prices going up but the neighborhood going down. The price is going up because there’s huge rental potential, but the renters and owners aren’t taking care of the properties.
Hey Donk
If it doesn’t say effective rents it’s likely lower.
Just possibly the debt donkey landlord has no money left over for depreciation after making the mortgage payment.
badly-done garage conversions,
Was on a run last night in a decent neighborhood and happened upon one of these conversions. The garage door was open, but it was basically a converted entertainment room. It looked like the 3 bedroom house was student housing for 5-6 students. It was an eyesore indeed.
It was an eyesore indeed.
But not as bad as tents in the park.
“Just possibly the debt donkey landlord has no money left over for depreciation after making the mortgage payment.”
Coming up with $3 per square foot to offset depreciation every single year, year after year can be a painful experience.
white van land
taxes going up
inventory tight here in 22151
w trump budget the big chill is over
Landlords are renting them out like flophouses around here, but the prices don’t reflect that, just the lack of amenities - like sharing a bathroom with 3 other people.
Centreville, VA Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As Northern Virginia/DC Market Reacts To Federal Budget
https://www.movoto.com/centreville-va/market-trends/
Sorry am not really seeing it in Northern VA yet.
For those who wonder why things like the housing bubble are not more widely disseminated news, watch this 96 second video
This is extremely dangerous to our democracy.
No danger$, lots of chips $tacked on the American bettor$ card table.
“Eye sees your $elling price, & rai$e ya $60,000 more … does the outdoor pizza oven stay?”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/02/homeowners-are-sitting-on-5-point-4-trillion-in-ready-cash-the-most-ever.html
I love the way that the article says that we’re “sitting” on equity, as if we’re hoarding it and depriving others of it. Mr. Banker, did you write this?
Over half of all tappable equity – approximately $2.8 trillion – is held by borrowers with credit scores of 760 or higher “
People with FICOs over 760 are generally not the type to take out cash for boats and boob jobs. If they did, they wouldn’t have a FICO of 760, duh.
“the primary use is for home improvement.”
Yup. I saw this at a recent home and garden show. Place was packed, and they weren’t all lookers either.
I have known for a long time now that besides sports, what street the fire was on and the weather ALL Local News comes from the Mother Ship.
Sports is rigged, bigtime. Their crutch is “it’s entertainment.” Bettor beware.
“Sports is rigged, bigtime. Their crutch is “it’s entertainment.” Bettor beware.”
Local news
West Boynton Little League Looking To Make Run
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pw3vn8-saUY
“Although it is the country’s largest broadcaster, Sinclair is not a household name and viewers may be unaware of who owns their local news station. Critics have accused the company of using its stations to advance a mostly right-leaning agenda.”
“We work very hard to be objective and fair and be in the middle,” Mr. Livingston told The New York Times last year. “I think maybe some other news organizations may be to the left of center, and we work very hard to be in the center.”
“Sinclair regularly sends video segments to the stations it owns. These are referred to as “must-runs,” and they can include content like terrorism news updates, commentators speaking in support of President Trump or speeches from company executives like the one from Mr. Livingston last year.”
“Ms. Pellizzaro said she can talk about Sinclair more freely now because she is working in academia, whereas journalists at stations owned by Sinclair might feel pressured not to bite the hand that feeds them.”
“I hope people realize that the journalists are trying their best, and this shouldn’t reflect poorly on them,” she said. “They’re just under this corporate umbrella.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/02/business/media/sinclair-news-anchors-script.html
Our local Sinclair-owned ABC affiliate has been running that spot in heavy rotation over the past week or two. I laugh every time I hear it, after a half-dozen SJW “I’m a victim” news stories just aired.
So, just saw some interesting data… Real Capital Analytics CPPI in the US, which tracks commercial property values by property type.
The headline is that values are up 28% from December 2006. HOWEVER, the variation depending on what you own is significant.
Retail is flat over that timeframe.
Apartments are up 60%.
CBD office is up 51%.
Suburban office is roughly flat (up 4%).
Industrial up approximately 22%.
Also interesting…
Major Markets (all property) is up 50% from December 2006.
Non-Major Markets (all property) is up 18% in that same timeframe.
I haven’t seen it stated explicitly, but I think the indices are nominal, not real.
Subprime auto is cratering:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-02/subprime-auto-bubble-just-burst-buyers-are-suddenly-missing-showrooms
the howmunchamonthers r broke
A job well done.
From the comments: “Over a year ago, watching a Chevy truck commercial, I told my wife, let’s watch how much of a discount they’re offering. It started off at $6,500 off MSRP. Then, it went to $7,500, and now it’s at $12,500. The dealerships lot near me, are packed, packed with pickup trucks.”
Okay, $12,500 off MSRP… and probably $3,500 cash back for that down payment.
“The dealerships lot near me, are packed, packed with pickup trucks.”
Ditto
That’s because trucks are what’s selling right now. I posted the divergence here before where pickup truck sales and prices decoupled from other autos and increased markedly over the past several years.
CR8R! Dow down 693 ATM…
BTFD my friend.It has worked for 10 years.
You’re a dumpster fire Comrade.
Bellevue, WA 98005 Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Seattle Economy Stumbles
https://www.zillow.com/bellevue-wa-98005/home-values
Compares housing prices to crash levels and provides other data:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/see-if-your-state-recovered-from-the-2008-great-recession/ss-BBJJGeQ?ocid=spartandhp#image=25
OMG - is this typical?
https://www.businessinsider.in/I-spend-800-a-week-on-food-and-drink-heres-everything-I-buy/articleshow/63433877.cms
“I got rid of my wheels several years ago and my company provides a transit pass, so I don’t have to worry about that expense.”
This is the future if car prices don’t return to earth.
You don’t want to own a car in Seattle anyway. It’s gridlock.
This seems crazy high to me for one person.
I’m feeding a family of 5, and I don’t use cash all that often (usually one credit card)…last year, the total grocery+restaurant charges on my card were meaningfully less than this single person’s spending (even when I add in the occasional cash purchases).
This girl has to weigh upwards of 200 pounds. And there’s no way she’s doing 8 hours of “work at home.”
In addition to massive amounts of cheese and bread, she likes her fizz. For you reading pleasure I compiled the boozecount:
Friday - German beer + buy 12-pack lager + fruit garnish for “weekend cocktails”
Saturday- Mexican beer
Sunday - Mimosa, Manhattan, glass wine
Monday - bottle wine
Tuesday - champagne, glass Blanc
Wednesday - Beer
Thursday - two pilsners
I’m no expert, but does this sound like excessive alcohol to you guys?
Part of my assessment on every patient who comes in from a vehicular accident is a NIDA score. This is basically a non-judgmental way to try to ascertain propensity to abuse drugs and alcohol so clinicians can treat and refer to social services as appropriate.
This individual’s drinking would place her at “at-risk” or “heavy” drinker because of greater than 7 standard drinks per week (for females):
https://www.rethinkingdrinking.niaaa.nih.gov/How-much-is-too-much/Is-your-drinking-pattern-risky/Whats-At-Risk-Or-Heavy-Drinking.aspx
As an aside, I just checked my Mint food budget for the 12 month trailing and it came to $9667, or about $805 per month. That is for my wife and I plus our 3-year-old. In other words, this individual by herself is spending 4x on food as we are for an entire family. And we eat out very frequently.
How many folks around traditionally LDS St George drink upwards of a drink a day?
I’m remembering my FIL’s “rich uncle” (or so everyone assumed), a St. Georgian. He lavished gifts on younger generation blood relatives who captured his fancy, such as one of my SILs.
When he passed, my FIL became executor of the estate, at which point it came to light that his uncle had left behind a net worth of $0, partially due to his six-pack-a-day beer drinking habit.
Lots of drinking around here actually. Demographics are pretty split now with lots of CA and NV transplants. And plenty of non-LDS drinkers too. Also, since we’re a tier-2 hospital, we get lots of surrounding business, like Beaver Dam, NV; Overton, NV; Mesquite, NV; Paige, AZ. Stuff like that.
She appears to be drinking 2-3 times the at-risk level.
The sodium in her meals is off the charts. I would die if I ate like that all the time.
I spend almost $50/week on food.
I am pretty sure home brewed hard cider doesn’t count.
Free land in Iowa if you build a house there:
“MARNE, Ia. — Every single home matters in a community of 120 people.”
“Each house serves as a crucial piece of the local tax base, keeping the town from fading away.”
“That’s why people like Marne Mayor Randy Baxter have surgically removed the town’s dilapidated homes over the years.”
“That’s why the city will give away residential lots for free to anyone willing to build a new home.”
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/business/2018/04/02/iowa-free-lots-rural-housing-shortage-crisis-randy-baxter-mayor-cycle-marne/440187002/
I’d like to see how much the building permit fees, etc. are. I’m sure they really stick it to you, like every place these days.
“The program is pretty simple: The lots go free to anyone willing to build a home that’s at least 1,200 square feet.”
There’s that minimum square footage requirement again. Why is there all of this discrimination against small homes? I don’t know anything about Marne, Iowa, but I’d consider taking one of these towns up on the free land thing if they’d allow me to build an 800 square foot house. I don’t want 1200. It costs more, and it’s just more to clean.
Agreed. These minimum square footage regulations are annoying. The mayor seems pretty open-minded and experimental, so maybe he could persuade city council to change zoning regs if there was enough pressure.
The main reason is the bigger houses –> higher property taxes. But there’s something they miss about this. Immigrants think nothing of packing 3-4 kids in a 1200 sq ft house. That’s 4 kids going to school. An 800 sq ft house will fit one kid, maybe too. Normalizing for the number of kids, those smaller houses actually contribute more taxes compared to services than larger houses.
I’ve always been in favor of a surtax per kid after two for school funding.
Remember…. If you’re paying more than $500/acre for worthless dirt, you’re paying too much.
Highland Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY On Plummeting Demand For Vacation Homes
https://www.movoto.com/highland-beach-fl/market-trends/
San Francisco, CA Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Bay Area Tech Companies Leave Doors Wide Open For Cybercriminals
https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca-94109/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Just another day in Bill DiBlasio’s progressive utopian New York City:
https://nypost.com/2018/04/02/subway-rider-smears-poop-all-over-no-2-train/
The “top-secret” meme lab (funded by ShareBlue) is in a strip-mall in Coral Springs, Florida. See also 4chan dot org
the uncensored thread on it is over at 8chan. Halfchan is banning users for posting info about it.
I heard China might dump its Treasurys. How is that plan working out for them?
Markets
Foreign Investors Are Bulking Up on U.S. Treasury Bonds Once Again
In February, overseas investors bought their largest share of Treasury notes and bonds since May 2016
By Daniel Kruger
Updated April 2, 2018 6:30 p.m. ET
A surge in demand for U.S. government debt from foreign investors is providing a bulwark against a further rise in Treasury yields.
Foreign investors in February bought their largest share of Treasury notes and bonds in U.S. government debt auctions since May 2016, according to Treasury Department data. Those purchases continued even while Treasury yields, which rise as bond prices fall, were climbing to multiyear highs. Yields have climbed as the U.S. ramped up bond sales to fund tax cuts and increased government spending,…
Why Outer Suburbs in the East and Midwest Have Stopped Booming
By Robert Gebeloff
March 21, 2018
The New York Times
“Many counties, including rich ones, are aging and experiencing more deaths than births, without growth through immigration or migration.”
“Some American communities that until recently were considered demographic boom towns are now caught up in a downward demographic mix: young people having fewer children, the boomer generation getting older. And migration patterns, stalled by the recession, are resuming, but only in certain parts of the country.”
“Through 2016, about one in four outer-ring suburbs were experiencing more deaths than births, including 18 of 30 such counties in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.”
“Some of the once-fastest-growing counties in the United States are growing no more, and nationwide, the birthrate has dropped to levels not seen since the Great Depression.”
“And it starts with babies. The estimated lifetime births per woman is down 16 percent from a recent peak in 2007.”
“The nation’s sprawling growth pattern has taken its share of criticism; it’s associated with long-distance commuting, environmental degradation and urban decay. But population stagnation in places that had been growing will most likely bring its own sets of problems, including pressures on real estate values and eventual shrinking of political representation.”
You know times are tough when financial commentators wheel out the Charles Dickens quotes!
What struggled in the first quarter? Stocks, bonds, basically everything
By Ryan Vlastelica
Published: Mar 30, 2018 9:52 a.m. ET
Only two of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rose over the quarter
Everett Collection
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”
So wrote Charles Dickens at the start of his classic “A Tale of Two Cities,” but he could just as easily have been referring to the stock market in the first quarter of 2018, a period when investors experienced a dizzying series of record highs, followed by a dramatic collapse and the return of long-dormant volatility.
The decline ended a nine-quarter streak of gains for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with the weakness occurring broadly and across sectors and asset classes. Most of the 11 S&P 500 industry groups fell over the first three months of the year, as did every major category of fixed income. Gold—a traditional haven asset—was one of the best places to be, though it’s quarterly rise was relatively restrained. Bitcoin (BTCUSD, +5.32%) sometimes hailed as a form of “digital gold,” didn’t benefit at all.
…
Did you decide to throw in the towel and dump your stock market HODLings?
Money
March 29, 2018 / 3:18 PM / 4 days ago
U.S. stock fund investors pull most cash since February meltdown: Lipper
Trevor Hunnicutt
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. fund investors drained the most cash from the stock market since early February’s market meltdown, dodging declines while making a tactical bet on fallen technology companies, Lipper data released on Thursday showed.
More than $14 billion rolled out of the funds during the week ended March 28, according to the research service, yet tech sector funds pulled in $101 million as some investors appeared to bet that the declines in Facebook Inc and some of its peers were temporary.
…
Try not to get mauled in the bear market.
Investing #MarketMoves
Apr 2, 2018 @ 11:04 AM
Global Weekly Charts Predict Worldwide Bear Market For Stocks
Intelligent Investing
Ideas from Forbes Investor Team
Richard Henry Suttmeier, Contributor
Investors should use strength to risky levels to reduce holdings to the minimum allocations to global stock markets.
…
What does a person do with cash this year?
I’ve heard more than one commentator note that oil stocks are priced for ~$50 oil, but that so far OPEC countries aren’t “cheating” on their supply cutbacks (and oil is $60+)…. Buy a basket of oil stocks?
Or just stick it in the bank and watch your monthly interest rate rise with the Fed’s actions.
“‘And I cried that’s basically what happened,’ recalled Karpinski. ‘No joke, three minutes later Maya texted me back saying that we won the house,’ said Kuchar. Karpinski says always write a buyers letter, ‘Write this letter with your heart making your story a part of that house.’”
Sounds like the seller basically paid 20 grand to listen to someone’s song video and read a letter. Brilliant deal.
Another 2018 feed the squirrels moment.