Turn Out The Lights, The Party Is Over
A report from Western Investor in Canada. “A sustained attack on buyer demand in Vancouver’s detached housing market has decimated sales and is leading to ‘unbelievable’ price reductions. If government plans were to crush sales in the city’s premiere residential market it has been spectacularly successful, according to recent real estate data and frontline agents. ‘Detached house sales on Vancouver’s west side are down 70 per cent in the first three months of this year as compared to 2016,’ said Brent Eilers of Re/Max Masters Realty of West Vancouver. ‘As Don Meredith from Monday Night Football used to say ‘turn out the lights, the party is over,’ Eilers said.”
“The party ended early, he said, for high-end builders and investors, with sale prices for Vancouver detached houses priced at $5 million or more down 15 per cent to 18 per cent this year compared to 2017. He, and other agents, say the crunch will come this spring with the traditional flood of listing onto the market as the first-quarter statistics are released. ‘It will be hard to hide what is really happening,’ Eilers said.”
“Eilers said the federal government stress test and higher mortgage rates have frozen first-time buyers out of the market, while B.C.’s foreign buyer tax, school tax and speculation tax have driven away foreign buyers. ‘So, unlike in other downturns, we don’t have fresh money coming into the market. Eilers provided examples of expensive Vancouver houses that have seen dramatic price reductions, including a South Granville house that was listed for $11.9 million October 2017 and sold in February for $9.9 million; and a Shaughnessy house, listed last fall for just under $12 million that sold last month for $8.4 million.”
“The lower end is also being affected, agents say. ‘We are seeing unbelievable price drops,’ said David Richardson, a veteran agent with Re/Max Crest Westside. He estimated some Kitsilano detached house sellers listing in the $2 to $3 million range have taken a 20% to 25 per cent haircut on recent prices compared to two years ago.”
“Across Vancouver, it now takes an average of 50 days for a detached house to sell, more than twice as long as two years ago before the government intervention and higher taxes began. Some Vancouver detached house sellers, Eilers suggested, will be forced to bite the bullet. ‘You cannot be down catastrophically in sales and not eventually have an affect on prices,’ Eilers said.”
From Bloomberg on Canada. “The high-end of Toronto’s housing market is bearing the brunt of declines from last year’s dizzying growth, with prices falling and unit sales slumping by almost half. Sales of detached homes in and around Canada’s biggest city fell 46 per cent in March from the same month a year ago, while the average price fell 17 per cent to $1.01 million, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board. That dragged down the average selling prices for all housing types by 14 per cent from a year earlier to $784,558, the biggest drop since 1991.”
“Sales for the market as a whole, including condos, townhouses, and semi-detached homes, fell 40 per cent to 7,228 units in March from a year ago but were up from February. That’s the lowest sales figure for March since 2009. Canada’s biggest housing market has been adjusting to new rules that make it harder for buyers to qualify for a mortgage, curbs on foreign purchases and rising interest rates. Federal and provincial governments have been gradually tightening market conditions to tame prices that skyrocketed last year.”
“‘Right now, when we are comparing home prices, we are comparing two starkly different periods of time: last year, when we had less than a month of inventory versus this year with inventory levels ranging between two and three months,’ Jason Mercer, director of market analysis, said in the report. ‘It makes sense that we haven’t seen prices climb back to last year’s peak.’”
From the Vancouver Sun in Canada. “China says the former chairman of Beijing-based Anbang Insurance Group defrauded mom-and-pop retail investors of more than US$10 billion and the company used that money to buy trophy assets overseas, including prime office towers in downtown Vancouver and a major B.C. seniors’ care company. The allegation puts these B.C. deals, which each exceeded $1 billion, into the world of what is emerging as one of China’s biggest financial crime trials.”
“Since a 2015 exposé in The New York Times about ‘hidden global wealth’ pouring into Manhattan’s most elite condo buildings, there has been some attention on a ‘growing proportion’ of wealthy foreigners, who have been the subject of government inquiries in their home countries for cases involving white-collar housing or environmental violations and financial fraud, buying assets in North America with few questions asked. Alesia Nahirny, executive director of Transparency International Canada, says it’s a problem if Anbang has been diverting funds into deals in Canada that it raised by aggressively promoting risky wealth-management products to unsophisticated investors in China.”
“‘(Money from) practices that happen elsewhere is coming to us. We are connected to it. If we are not putting the proper measures in place, we are complicit,’ says Nahirny.”
“‘It’s so interesting,’ says Christine Duhaime, a Vancouver-based lawyer. ‘Goodness knows what it means for the Vancouver assets other than there will be a fire sale to get rid of them.’”
From News.com.au in Australia. “Sydney’s median home price fell by just 0.3 per cent for the month, half the rate of decline over February and a third as large as the 0.9 per cent falls recorded over January and December. It means a typical Sydney home now costs about $860,000 — down from just over $900,000 last year. CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said the stronger March activity suggested the market’s current slump would not last much longer. ‘If current trends continue we could see a return to growth in only a few months,’ Mr Lawless said.”
“A return to the boom-like conditions Sydney experienced over 2016 would be highly unlikely, Mr Lawless added, describing the bounce back as ‘only modest.’ SQM Research director Louis Christopher agreed that investors were likely to re-enter the market. Investors accounted for nearly 60 per cent of the Sydney properties purchased over 2016 and were one of the main drivers of the earlier boom in prices, he added.”
From the Gatton Star in Australia. “Sitting at the southern tip of the Great Barrier Reef, and famed for being one of the nation’s industrial powerhouses, is the central Queensland city of Gladstone. By the 21st century, the decision to build a liquefied natural gas plant was made - encouraging thousands of construction workers to fly into the already prosperous town in an attempt to score a piece of the plant pie. It landed Gladstone on every property investor’s wishlist and young families saw the booming town as an opportunity to finally buy a piece of affordable real estate they could eventually profit from.”
“But by 2012, the LNG plant was built, the construction workers were getting laid off and the city started to experience a severe downturn. Six years later and things are no better. In the last December quarter, more than 80 per cent of Gladstone homes sold at a loss, according to new data released by CoreLogic. That rate is the highest in Queensland and second highest in Australia, based on the average home price more than halving in the past five years.”
“Most of the places in the top 20 are linked to the mining resources sector in Queensland and Western Australia. Pegs Creek in Western Australia is the only suburb to beat West Gladstone, with 92.3 per cent of its properties selling at a loss. In January 2013, houses in the centre of Gladstone were selling for an average of $595,000 but by January 2017, the average was down to $330,000.”
“In 2012, when the city was still on a construction high, Kerry Connor said working as a real estate agent was exciting. ‘People came from all over the world to try and buy a Gladstone property. We’d advertise and in a few days, the property would be sold. It was the most amazing time to be a real estate agent and it was mad - everything was happening very, very fast. We had a lot of people coming to town for employment, investors were purchasing, retired people were moving on from Gladstone to something further south with plenty of money in their pockets,’ Ms Connor said.”
“The rents were driven sky high, attracting more investors and encouraging more housing to be built. ‘When the construction was completed and the workforce was dramatically reduced, there was this big downturn. The first thing to change was the rental market because the properties weren’t yielding good return for landlords anymore. Rental prices tumbled so then property prices tumbled as a direct result,’ Ms Connor said.”
“Gladstone is also one of the top 10 postcodes in Australia for people behind on their mortgage payments, according to S&P Global Data. Ms Connor confirmed this figure, admitting most of Gladstone real estate’s sales are repossessed homes - most of which were bought by investors in the 2011-2012 boom. ‘A very high percentage of sales in Gladstone are repossessions. It’s quite scary actually,’ she said.”
“Of their last 20 sales, 12 of them had been mortgage or repossession sales. she added. Real estate agents across the city thought things were looking up recently but Ms Connor said from early February onwards, repossession sales have risen - a figure that isn’t helping housing prices rise. ‘That trend is across all real estate agents here,’ she said. ‘Those properties are being sold at auctions and the prices they go for direct the market. It makes it very hard for locals to sell their properties because everything is down.’”
‘He, and other agents, say the crunch will come this spring with the traditional flood of listing onto the market as the first-quarter statistics are released. ‘It will be hard to hide what is really happening’
Why would you want to hide anything Brent?
Don’t Realtors have a code of ethics?
They tell me they are professionals deserving of their 6% cut.
Yet - they are trying hide the truth of what is happening in the market?
To whom? Buyers? Sellers? Banks? Mortgage companies? Appraisers? Intersections?
REALTHWORES are the ones neck deep in the house flipping games. They are desperate to keep prices up.
They are desperate to keep prices up ??
Another statement from you lacking knowledge of the industry. Realtors don’t give a rats a$$ about the price. They sell on the way up and they sell on the way down. In fact, the good realtors make far more money in a down market then they do in this current environment.
You don’t know what you’re talking about. The higher the sales price the higher the commission. I have never heard of anybody who aims for a lower commission, no matter the industry.
This doesn’t even get into the fact that speculators in housing, in this case the aforementioned REALTWHORES, require higher and higher prices to get out because of high transaction costs and transaction times due to the illiquid nature of real estate.
You should probably stick to hanging sheetrock, or whatever trade you said you were in.
I think that he meant that many realtors play the flipping game themselves.
Ah. UHS only pretend to want higher prices, all over the country, to distract us from the reality that they want lower prices. Deceptive Bastards!
You don’t know what you’re talking about.
Actually, he does.
Brokers don’t give one sh*t about the last 5% or 10% of the sale price, and that’s where all the work is (convincing a buyer to pay more than perhaps the last home sold in the area)–and that last 5%-10% is what pushes markets higher. They care about volume of transactions, and if that means they don’t push really hard for that last little bit, and can work on the next sale, so be it.
ISTR hearing of a study that showed that residential realtors on average, when selling their own homes, achieved higher prices than when they sold a third party’s home. An extra $10,000 on price when it’s their own home gets them $10,000…an extra $10,000 when selling someone else’s home is $300.
How hard do you think they work on the last $10k for someone else?
Last week I found myself talking to NAR’s national sales director and she made it clear that their interest is higher prices.
The higher the sales price the higher the commission ??
Well that’s great insight LOL. Fact is, as prices increase due to less inventory realtors do fewer deals and if they represent buyers they even do fewer.
You don’t know what you’re talking about ??
Grasshopper, I have forgotten more about the real estate business then you know. Stay in your arena because when you get out of it you just make yourself Look foolish.
I think that he meant that many realtors play the flipping game themselves ??
Nah. It’s mostly investors & Contractors that play the flip game. Realtors are involved for the commish but not that much in the actual ownership and rehab.
only pretend to want higher prices, all over the country, to distract us from the reality that they want lower prices. Deceptive Bastards! ??
Did you miss my point ?? They don’t give a chit about price. The good realtors are after volume regardless of price. I know a young man who did 66 transactions in 2017 at 1% for him. In our area, that made him well north of 700K.
“The higher the sales price the higher the commission.”
Precisely. Even in spite of the fact that transactions/demand falls as inventory grows due to grossly inflated prices.
Simple supply and demand.
Is there a serious question of whether a salesperson, who is paid a percentage of the sales price, would want the highest sales price possible?
If there really is, ask yourself what is in the salesperson’s best interest? That’s what they want.
It seems to me that they want to maximize profit, which is price X quantity. Are there anecdotally exceptions? Sure. In general, they want the highest prices at the highest transaction volumes. Because that is what’s in their best interest.
You offer little value to the blog HA. Go back into your basement.
During a bubble, higher prices leads to more transactions, as the prospect of ever-increasing prices pulls more and more people in. UHS are perfectly well aware of this, and they definitely want higher prices. That’s the game.
“You offer little value to the blog HA. Go back into your basement.”
He’s added more to this blog than you have ever dreamed of. What exactly do you offer here, aside from all of your snide comments to other posters?
You must be a terribly, terribly unhappy man.
ever-increasing prices pulls more and more people in ??
Oh sure. If you want more buyers just raise the price. Gees.
Housing my good friend.
Alameda, CA Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Chinese Speculator Mortgage Defaults Skyrocket
https://www.zillow.com/alameda-ca/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
In general, they want the highest prices at the highest transaction volumes
Yes, that is correct, but they also have their time to consider.
Trying to get that last little bit of price is time consuming, and if they only get to keep 1.5% of that last little bit, so, putting in a large effort in terms of time for the last several percent of a sale price is very often not worth it.
Consider the following situation: Buyer is within $10k of Seller’s $400k asking price–after the home price is already way above Seller’s basis (after all, we are in 2018, after a massive run up in prices).
What path do you think the broker would find most attractive, when you consider the different level of effort each path is likely to take, and that their free time is spent looking for their next listing or buyer?
1. Let the deal fall through: $0 earned
2. Convince the buyer to pay $10k more after having already convinced them to pay far more than the seller’s basis: $6,000 earned.
3. Convince the seller to accept $390k (that the last $10k wasn’t “real” but a “stretch goal”), thereby reducing their profit on sale somewhat: $5,850 earned.
Most brokers see path #3 as the best payoff/effort ratio.
Karen: as the prospect of ever-increasing prices pulls more and more people in
scdave: Oh sure. If you want more buyers just raise the price. Gees.
This phenomenon certainly exists:
1) Veblen good: “Veblen goods are types of luxury goods for which the quantity demanded increases as the price increases, an apparent contradiction of the law of demand.”
2) Giffen good: “Giffen good is a product that people consume more of as the price rises and vice versa”
3) Speculative goods: “Some stock speculators are individual investors, but others are major fund managers, well-known business leaders and other types of financial mavens. When one of these people speculates by buying stock, it signals to other investors that the speculator expects share prices to rise. This can create an increase in demand as others rush to buy the same stock.”: https://finance.zacks.com/speculation-raises-shares-1623.html
Economic models are like physics models: they work in theoretical contexts and provide a baseline theoretical framework for further understanding but they’re not necessarily accurate in real world conditions. For example, in a vacuum, a feather and a bowling ball fall at the same velocity. But in most real world scenarios, they do not.
Rental Watch: What path do you think the broker would find most attractive, when you consider the different level of effort each path is likely to take, and that their free time is spent looking for their next listing or buyer?
1. Let the deal fall through: $0 earned
2. Convince the buyer to pay $10k more after having already convinced them to pay far more than the seller’s basis: $6,000 earned.
3. Convince the seller to accept $390k (that the last $10k wasn’t “real” but a “stretch goal”), thereby reducing their profit on sale somewhat: $5,850 earned.
Most brokers see path #3 as the best payoff/effort ratio.
Of course. The Realtor has to suss out the buyer to understand the maximum price he will pay without having the deal fall through. Discovering this maximum price point is in the Realtor’s best interest. Having an understanding of the buyer’s finances and motivations helps assess this price point.
Economic models are like physics models: they work in theoretical contexts and provide a baseline theoretical framework for further understanding but they’re not necessarily accurate in real world conditions. For example, in a vacuum, a feather and a bowling ball fall at the same velocity. But in most real world scenarios, they do not.
“In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.” Attributed to Yogi Berra
Someones meds arent working again. Obviously everyone with an IQ>90 on this blog has witnessed first hand the frenzy of bubble markets, where rising prices create a desire to not be left behind, increasing both prices and transactions at the same time. You’d be a fool to not see this as the best time for realtors and their first choice for the market mood.
We all know that this frenzy soon burns out though. Anyone buying in a depressed market knows how different it is from a bubble and how the agents treat you very differently depending on which side youre on (buy vs. sell). To say these things dont exist or that agents dont care is to deny the obvious - but maybe thats some peoples’ modus operandi.
Davey, you’re not at all like blind Kung Fu Master Po. He was pretty sharp. You seem to have forgotten more than you know.
“Anyone buying in a depressed market knows how different it is from a bubble and how the agents treat you very differently depending on which side youre on (buy vs. sell). To say these things dont exist or that agents dont care is to deny the obvious - but maybe thats some peoples’ modus operandi.”
I believe the problem Realtors face in a down market is to convince their sellers to accept the price the market will bear, whether because the seller’s subjective valuation of his home remains at a bubble level, or because the seller is underwater and can’t afford to bring cash to the closing table in order to cover repaying the principle balance on the mortgage. As pointed out above, while the Realtor would rather complete a sale quickly and bank the commission, in order to minimize the time cost of a sale, the seller is likely to care about the last 10% of the sale price a great deal more, given this is his margin of leverage.
Of course. The Realtor has to suss out the buyer to understand the maximum price he will pay without having the deal fall through. Discovering this maximum price point is in the Realtor’s best interest. Having an understanding of the buyer’s finances and motivations helps assess this price point.
This is where we disconnect. When considering effort/time better spent elsewhere, it’s not always in the broker’s best interest to get to the “maximum price”.
A buyer’s “maximum price” will change based on the information they have, and how they “feel” about the purchase.
With effort, a good broker can impart additional information that is important to a buyer and/or make them feel better about the purchase, pushing this “maximum price” higher.
At a certain point, it takes A LOT of effort to get the price up higher, and a broker is better off convincing the seller to sell for less.
In a vacuum, of course a broker wants to sell for the highest price possible.
In practice however, “high enough for the seller” is usually fine for a broker given the effort that it takes to get to the highest price possible weighed against the relatively little additional proceeds the broker gets paid for that effort.
What percentage of transactions involve fraud? 80%? Higher?
If anything needs to be “disrupted,” it’s the realtwhore industry. I think we’re going to start seeing a turnkey-type service for the financial and legal portion of homebuying. Seller and buyer show up with an agreed-on price, and the service handles escrow and closing etc. Isn’t that what Redfin did?
It appears to me that Redfin is based on steering you to their own agents and listings and then refunding you a cut of the buyer’s agent’s commission. Not nearly all of it, though. But enough to get people’s attention. I made the mistake of giving them my contact information once thinking that they would put me in touch with a listing agent but they immediately try to hook you up with one of their agents.
And now there is a new one called Reali that claims to refund you the full buyer’s agent fee but I haven’t figured out how that works yet.
I believe redfin originally tried to do stuff like this, but the NAR/Realtors got laws passed that required RE agents be involved or something.
They were out to cut out the middle people but that idea was thwarted.
Oooooph
“Phoenix-Area Realtor Convicted In Short Sale Fraud Scheme”
https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/real-estate/catherine-reagor/2018/02/12/mesa-real-estate-agent-prison-short-sale-netted-parents-profit/330833002/
I imagine $1 million should buy a substantial house in Arizona.
It buys a $400,000 house.
‘A sustained attack on buyer demand in Vancouver’s detached housing market has decimated sales and is leading to ‘unbelievable’ price reductions’
Huh, so “building more” turned out to be a REIC lie. If one really wants to bring down prices in, say, California, just pull back on demand via loans. It’s not like Joe Sixpack is willing to lend half a million pesos at 4% for 30 years.
Sustained attack…
Decimated…
It is like the Battle of Stalingrad out there!
And there is metaphor for the lines of mass Soviet troops marching into German machine guns and who will be shot if they turn around and retreat back to their own lines.
“If one really wants to bring down prices in, say, California, just pull back on demand via loans.”
Hopefully Team Trump will soon test this theory about how to affordably create affordable housing.
The title for the last link:
Why you’ll have to pay to leave Gladstone
‘CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said the stronger March activity suggested the market’s current slump would not last much longer. ‘If current trends continue we could see a return to growth in only a few months’
Sure Tim, that’s how it works. 25 years up like a rocket, 6 months down and then to the moon!
But you know, that’s just what they said in Vancouver back in 2017.
‘Alesia Nahirny, executive director of Transparency International Canada, says it’s a problem if Anbang has been diverting funds into deals in Canada that it raised by aggressively promoting risky wealth-management products to unsophisticated investors in China.’
‘(Money from) practices that happen elsewhere is coming to us. We are connected to it. If we are not putting the proper measures in place, we are complicit,’ says Nahirny.”
‘It’s so interesting,’ says Christine Duhaime, a Vancouver-based lawyer. ‘Goodness knows what it means for the Vancouver assets other than there will be a fire sale to get rid of them.’
This lawyer is a money laundering expert that has been quoted in many posts here.
‘aggressively promoting risky wealth-management products to unsophisticated investors in China’
Well well. The wealth management products finally start to go to money heaven. How long have we read about this gigantic debacle?
products finally start to go to money heaven…
And the CEO to jail?
The lower end is a $3 million dollar house…
++++
“The lower end is also being affected, agents say. ‘We are seeing unbelievable price drops,’ said David Richardson, a veteran agent with Re/Max Crest Westside. He estimated some Kitsilano detached house sellers listing in the $2 to $3 million range have taken a 20% to 25 per cent haircut on recent prices compared to two years ago.”
‘In January 2013, houses in the centre of Gladstone were selling for an average of $595,000 but by January 2017, the average was down to $330,000′
Hands up everyone who thinks a shack in Gladstone is worth 330k Australian pesos.
The “metro” are has about 50K people. It’s located in lightly populated Queensland, which has plenty of undeveloped coastline. It’s main industries are mining, the port and tourism.
Still in the “not giving it away” phase of the imploding bubble.
++++
“The high-end of Toronto’s housing market is bearing the brunt of declines from last year’s dizzying growth, with prices falling and unit sales slumping by almost half. Sales of detached homes in and around Canada’s biggest city fell 46 per cent in March from the same month a year ago, while the average price fell 17 per cent to $1.01 million, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board. That dragged down the average selling prices for all housing types by 14 per cent from a year earlier to $784,558, the biggest drop since 1991.”
i will be in Toronto next week visiting my folks - and will try to report back on the on-ground situation
The thing is that the mix of sales will change and they will hide some of the impact.
There is a house that sold for $1.1M CDN$ (near my parents house) 2 months ago. the rumor was that the house was going to be torn down and a mega house built. The buyer has not even started tearing down the house …. so it will be hard to see the trends once we have crested on prices
I was in Portland last week. The amount of housing inventory for sale is breathtaking.
I hope you had a chance to enjoy a micro-brew dark beer.
condos or detached houses. I am not sure who can truly afford the condos in Portland
This makes it sounds like a cause and effect.
This was ONE construction project.
And EVERYONE knew the approximate completion date and the fate of the construction workers from this ONE project.
+++++
“But by 2012, the LNG plant was built, the construction workers were getting laid off and the city started to experience a severe downturn. Six years later and things are no better.
I really dont want to be in escrow again but mama grizzly wants to buy.
Keep us posted on the drama!
You are seriously trolling. You said you already owned a house and were living off the equity. Now you’re buying a house at the peak? I don’t believe this stuff.
Can u wait 6 months,we should be in recession ,or have one close by then.
FOMO often draws in buyers at bubble tops, despite that they would be better off waiting.
Who could really recognize the top? Prices are at all time highs around here, but what’s to say they won’t keep going?
North Palm Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Vacation Property Demand Collapses
https://www.movoto.com/north-palm-beach-fl/market-trends/
I am truly sorry for being in escrow.
DumpsterFire
Escrow is that awful place between Freedom and Debtor’s Hell.
Unless you buy what you can afford.
In this market it’s all hell if you’re a buyer, even a cash buyer. The prices are whack.
They all knew it was a bubble.
And they all knew it was going to end - badly.
Yet, somehow they want to play the victim.
++++
“In 2012, when the city was still on a construction high, Kerry Connor said working as a real estate agent was exciting. ‘People came from all over the world to try and buy a Gladstone property. We’d advertise and in a few days, the property would be sold. It was the most amazing time to be a real estate agent and it was mad…
‘A very high percentage of sales in Gladstone are repossessions. It’s quite scary actually,’ she said.”
“Of their last 20 sales, 12 of them had been mortgage or repossession sales. she added.
It makes it very hard for locals to sell their properties because everything is down.”
Not to be outdone by housing, the auto subprime loan bubble is about to blow…
++++
So What’s Going On with Auto Sales?
by Wolf Richter • Apr 3, 2018
Despite incentives averaging 10.3% of MSRP, the estimated average transaction price, which includes incentives and dealer discounts, rose by $703 year-over-year to $35,285 in March, according to Kelly Blue Book. It shows how crazy automakers are going on inflating their sticker prices.
Inventories of new vehicles on dealer lots, in terms of days’ supply, were flat with last year, at 70 days, according to estimates by J.D. Powers a few days ago. 60 days is considered the upper limit of healthy.
Rising interest rates will push new vehicles out of reach for more and more people, and they will continue to step down the ladder to used vehicles.
Soaring defaults on subprime auto loans are causing lenders to tighten up their underwriting standards, and many potential buyers with subprime credit ratings cannot finance the new vehicle that they chose. Dealers will then switch them to a used vehicle.
I wonder what the average price would be if trucks and SUVs are taken out of the mix.
What is indeed troubling is that even “entry level cars” are bout 20K. I’ve seen cars that I think of as “budget” (like say the Kia Soul) with MSRPs in upper 20’s in their higher trim levels.
Like so many other things in life, their prices go through the roof while everyone’s pay is stagnant.
have bought 2 kia souls in the past year or two, one to replace totaled one where wife escaped w/some small broken bones in foot, immediately called dealer and ordered another identical one after seeing damage to the involved honda vs wifes car…..eye opening…have yet to pay over $17,000 for a new kia but it takes patience. Still driving my 2008 sportage w/over 150 thou miles on it w/repair costs (not incl tires, oil changes and such) of somewhere in the $800s……….hopefully they are coming out w/ a small pickup soon so I can move on from sportage…………
I saw that $80,000 Lincoln Navigators were skewing the average upward on the average new car sale price.
Have you seen the new Cadillac Escalade? It looks like a hearse.
You’re right, that last back window is hideous. I never understood the appeal of Escalades, or Hummers for that matter. Different strokes I guess.
The big families I know of love the Tahoes/Suburbans/Yukons because they are comfortable for road trips in all weather and you can pull toys at the same time. Nobody I know who lives on a salary wants to pay for plane tickets very often for a family of 6-8+, even if it’s a healthy salary.
7 n 8 yr cars loans !
I thought 5 yr was insane.
With the way truck prices are falling and truck inventory backing up, it’s safe to say the average is much higher.
i am in Plano Tx this week on business. You cannot believe the amount of new expensive trucks and SUVs on the road.
So some people have $s - but is it mostly financed sells
Whenever I’m back there, it always amazes me how much emphasis is put on the SIZE of the car/truck/SUV - It has to be HUGE. It’s some giant pissing contest.
“Normal” sized cars look like they are about to be squished on the road trying to avoid them.
Then I come back to the PNW and while there are a few bros who believe that having an extended cab, brush bars and a 6-inch lift kit is the way to go, mostly you see sedans, mid-sized SUVs/CUVs and station wagons (my daily driver is one)
This type of culture predominates in my neck of the woods (southern Utah). Lots of jacked up trucks revving their engines and spewing out exhaust, doubtless from some modification to make the exhaust even dirtier. This is done as a statement of pride. Whenever they pass runners/bikers, they purposely try to spew exhaust in their direction. They get some sort of perverse satisfaction in this act, like its a middle finger to the planet, clean air, or anyone who doesn’t appreciate the awesomeness of huge, lifted, trucks. But they also are in my ER at about 50 from heart attack or stroke.
“spew exhaust in their direction”
It’s called “coal rolling,” and yes, it’s their way at taking revenge on perceived limpy libs who took their jobs.
I grew up in that culture and was paying close attention when they start hotrodding the diesel trucks. At first they were just trying to add horsepower and then some of them figured out how to entertain themselves by blowing even bigger clouds of smoke.
I’ve always interpreted the perverse joy of rolling coal to be more based on irritation with the EPA and their supporters going way back to the 1970s when catalytic converters were first required on vehicles. They didn’t work well, and they badly choked the performance of the vehicles as they aged. But at the same time if you removed it there were lots of “those people” from the government who wanted to levy life changing fines on you. So yeah, there was some resentment. And it’s festered since then.
The majority of standard cabs now sold are fleet sales, I recall reading that somewhere. Makes sense because they are not very practical.
“You cannot believe the amount of new expensive trucks and SUVs on the road.”
Limited or Platinum trim, leather seating, lift kit, wheels, etc.
2016 Toyota Tundra Platinum - Austin, TX - $50k (used)
https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtml?listingId=477641187
I bought my first pickup new over the phone for about $4400 in 1974. My second pickup, the first F250 diesel, I bought new for $11000 in 1983. I junked it in 2014. I put about that much into repairs and maintenance over the years. I think I got my money’s worth.
“…the first F250 diesel, I bought new for $11000 in 1983.”
That was an awesome deal as most diesel pickup(s) were fetching around $20k at the time. I know because I chickened-out and settled for a gasoline powered, std cab w/ crank windows and s long bed for $11,800.
That was an awesome deal as most diesel pickup(s) were fetching around $20k at the time.
That “awesome deal” was simply the MSRP at the time. A standard gas pickup was about $6500 IIRC. I have the receipts buried in a file around here someplace. I put 150,000 miles on the F250, most of that carrying a 7600 lb slide on truck camper which saved my life numerous times. It got 13 mpg carrying the camper at 70 mph. “Saved my life” because I slept in the back, in hospital parking lots, after getting off ER duty and being too dangerously tired to drive home. I lost 2 medical colleagues during the years I worked ER - they fell asleep at their wheels driving home from all-night duty in local hospitals and died that way.
I got rid of the truck when I didn’t want to bother with fixing the chipped flywheel, damaged wheel studs, tires rotting from age, fuel leaks in the mechanical injection system, etc, etc. I am sure the engine would have gone 1 or 2 million miles with a problem in itself. I had rustproofed the body right after I bought it, and the body was doing extremely well after 31 years of Ohio winters, much better than the 2001 F150 I later got, which is itself on the verge of disintegrating from rust. My truck camper had by then disintegrated from age, it had been manufactured in 1974.
To be clear, I bought a 1982 Chevy k30, 454-ci, 1-ton, 4×4, w/single rear wheel for $11,800. It was also the biggest financial mistake of my life, but I learned well from that awful shagging.
It was also the biggest financial mistake of my life
Looking back at my F250 diesel, it was a wise use of my money considering the kind of commuting I had to do: in all weathers 24×7x365 depending on my work schedule. On vacations I had an RV that got 13 mpg.
Tresho, what do you do? RN, doc, tech?
Retired ER doc.
Cool, thanks for sharing.
I find it quite odd that all the tv commercials peddling autos tell u how much your gonna save by buying.
I drove by the lot and on the windshield it have like 10,000.00 off msrp.
I smell bs.
I drove by the lot and on the windshield it have like 10,000.00 off msrp.
Whenever I drive by a new or used lot I always save 100% off MSRP - by not buying anything there.
Another concern I have regarding the current generation of cars is that most now have tiny engines with turbos. Those powertrains won’t have the longevity many are expecting.
Turbo motors are a lot more reliable than they used to be. But if I’m going to pay for the complexity and cost I want a lot of performance potential to go with it.
For example my wife wants a Mini Cooper (I know). Since 2014 even the base models have turbos…on a 3 cylinder engine. On the older ones I would consider buying a cheaper more reliable base model for her since she really doesn’t care. But if we’re buying a newer one then I want the max performance model since I’m paying the price in complexity anyway.
They undoubtedly are more reliable than in the past. I just have my doubts they will be as trouble free as normally aspirated engines once the get past the 100K mark
As for the MINI, good luck. As you probably know, ours began to fall apart just after the warranty expired. Its replacement, a 2013 Kia Soul, has been bulletproof.
As a life-long car guy, I feel both you and Carl are right. Turbo engines have gotten amazingly better in the last decade, in part because the automakers moved to them en-masse to get a few more MPG and have thrown a ton of resources at them.
That said, there’s more parts to go wrong, and more heat and pressure in a small place, and lots of turbo engines are fairly high strung. Three decades ago, a turbo engine might have taken a NA 2.0L engine from 90 to 130 HP or so. Now we’re taking the same displacement from 150peak HP to 240-295 HP and flattening the torque curve as wide as possible.
The jury is still out on longevity, and I’ll add there has been a parallel trend by some automakers to keep regular maintenance costs in check while cutting costs - basically the trend by companies like Mercedes and BMW to not over-engineer things like they used to, but to make sure the parts outlive the warranty while doing things like saying “Oh, no more regularly scheduled flushing and replacing the transmission fluid - it’s lifetime now! (Lifetime of the warranty that is)”. Once the car is over 6 years old, it’s not their problem, but it can be a profit center for their dealers.
“Oh, no more regularly scheduled flushing and replacing the transmission fluid - it’s lifetime now! (Lifetime of the warranty that is)”. Once the car is over 6 years old, it’s not their problem, but it can be a profit center for their dealers.”
This is exactly why I want my next car to be 100% EV. Almost no real maintenance. Just rotate and replace the tires. Maybe the brakes once in a blue moon.
Then get to work on that refueling infrastructure, sweetheart. Because I’m not buying an EV until there’s a station every 20 miles.
Also do please consider the po’ folks who have to park in surface lots at apartment complexes, or park on the street. The libs seem to think that everyone has a garage with a specialized electrical outlet.
I’ve already explained that this isn’t necessary. Maybe it was for 1st gen Nissan Leafs, but not the Chevy Bolt or any Tesla. Just check out plugshare.com for current public charge options. The new model 3’s get 315 miles per charge, though some drivers are getting about 350. How many miles do you drive in a day? A week? If you have a house, you can charge at home. If you’re an apartment dweller, this is more difficult I admit.
But we live in a condo (for now) and we have covered parking. Our next door neighbor’s parents came from California when they had their first child. They had a plug-in Hyundai Sonata. Just ran an extension cord every night and they drove it exclusively on electricity for the 3 weeks they were visiting. The Hyundai Sonata plug-in hybrid only gets something like 27 miles before it switches to gas. So if you have a Tesla model 3, you’re getting more than 10x that. That is plenty for my needs, but not for everyone. If you have range anxiety, then you should just get a Chevy Volt. Or get an Escalade, whatever. I don’t care, really what other people drive.
EVs still have HVAC systems that use oils and exotic gasses as well as drivetrains that require lubricants. Most also have liquid coolant systems for batteries and power electronics. These are all things that need servicing at some point, just like those “filled for life” auto trans.
Robust gasoline turbo technology has been around for a long time; its the emissions requirements that make the engineering hard since you are working with what is, in effect, a variable-displacement engine.
Drain and fill vehicle coolant circuits at 150k miles. Just once. When is the next time? I assume at 300k miles. Chevy Bolt is virtually maintenance free:
https://insideevs.com/chevrolet-bolt-requires-almost-no-maintenance-for-first-150000-miles/
EVs still have HVAC systems that use oils and exotic gasses as well as drivetrains that require lubricants. Most also have liquid coolant systems for batteries and power electronics. These are all things that need servicing at some point, just like those “filled for life” auto trans.
My guess is that the majority of the work done on an ICE car are things that would not be needed for an EV. For me, oil changes and timing belt replacement alone for my 8-year-old car, add up to several thousand dollars. Most of this work is completely unnecessary with no ICE.
This is also why dealerships don’t want to sell them. They rely on a steady stream of maintenance and repair. If the fleet starts turning all EV, their profit model suffers dramatically.
I would guess that the AC system in an EV is very much like that in an ICE. Extremely expensive to fix either way, and those systems do break down in either vehicle. OEM’s have had a century to optimize performance & durability of ICE vehicles. They are just beginning to learn about producing / etc. 100,000s of EVs.
The absolutely coolest thing I ever read about a hybrid vehicle was a certain Prius. The owner had modified his home wiring so that the Prius could simply be plugged into his house and used as a standalone emergency AC supply for the home. Then he got hit by a hurricane and had 1 or 2 weeks of no outside power. His Prius kept his house going the entire time. He said the necessary mods cost less than a backup generator would have cost him — he was some kind of an engineer, though.
I remember that story. Having grown up with power outages it certainly caught my attention. My recollection was that he just used a big 12V inverter. The thing that surprised me was that the car would just start itself and run until charged every time the battery got low. I never figured out whether that was a normal part of the design or if he had to trick it into doing that.
I never figured out whether that was a normal part of the design or if he had to trick it into doing that.
IIRC, it was a little of both, and was not a major issue. The Prius normally starts & stops its engine to maintain battery charge, that seems to be the essence of a hybrid. That little bugger can deliver many more Kwh continually than many houses need. Just add gasoline!
I am surprised auto manufacturers don’t tout this as a selling point.
Meant to add to previous reply: Your concern is part of the reason I’ve kept my current car (Station wagon) as long as I have (and for another 5+ years in the future) - it’s the last year of the NA inline 6, before they went to turbos (twin) that had a lot of teething issues.
a lot of teething issues.
That’s an understatement assuming you’re talking about early 335s. But if you can ignore the water pumps and fuel pumps and fuel injectors and wastegates and boost control vacuum systems they’re a great motor :-). Just gotta stay on top of (and accept) the maintenance and repairs in a way that most people don’t.
Heh. yeah, the N54 really should have been a “S” engine. There’s plenty of reasons it got replaced at the next half-cycle.
I’m pretty old school in my regular maintenance, and earlier cars I owned were looked after right on schedule, and at the time I moved on from them they had 341K, 285K, 255K and 189K miles respectively and all still were in good mechanical condition. The only exception was the E34 touring with the S38B38 which didn’t rack up the miles like that
You probably deduced my current car has the N52 - A sweet engine that’s the result of decades of refinement. Living where I do now outside Seattle, I’m only putting 4-5K miles a year on it because of a combination of less need, crazy traffic, public transport and Uber, and it’s still under 100K and looking like new, so I’m not seeing any reason to not keep it another 5+ years unless something in my situation changes.
edit: wasn’t meaning to come off dismissive of your willingness to stay on top of needed maintenance with the comment about it getting replaced by the N55. It’s a sweet motor, with some amazing room for tinkering, if you know what you’re up to. People like you who even recognize the situation and ongoing maintenance are unfortunately in an every-shrinking minority. Most new car buyers today don’t ever dare open the hood, lest they be overwhelmed.
Most new car buyers today don’t ever dare open the hood, lest they be overwhelmed.
The “overwhelmed”-ness is grossly exaggerated and it seems to be a part of an FUD campaign coming from those who profit from selling automotive maintenance.
What is missing is the willingness of car owners to INFORM themselves about the nature of the metal beasts they pay so much to use. Getting this information is far easier than it used to be. Getting the information does take time, however, and a firm resolve to get ‘er done.
If I had a decent sized garage, I would be doing a lot more work on my vehicles than I am willing to do in the back yard in Ohio weather.
most now have tiny engines with turbos ??
When I purchased my 2002 Tacoma with a V-6, I had the Dealer install a TRD SuperCharger With full factory Warranty. The performance is outstanding. Still going strong 166,000 miles later.
“The performance is outstanding.”
Especially if you live in Reno, NV or Denver, CO where the ambient air pressure is an issue.
Exactly rms. I go over Donner Summit on Cruze Control at 75 and don’t skip a beat.
When I purchased my 2002 Tacoma with a V-6, I had the Dealer install a TRD SuperCharger With full factory Warranty. The performance is outstanding. Still going strong 166,000 miles later.
I’ve wondered how well those would hold up. My recollection is that they are a positive displacement screw-type, I assume there are bearings to wear out and seals/tolerances around the case that will eventually make them less effective. But nice to know it’s lasted well so far. If I were to buy something like a 4runner I would be thinking about that myself.
Auto sales were down in Jan and Feb, but in March US auto sales were up 6% year-over-year. But EV auto sales are up 41% year-over-year.
Opinion | Tesla’s Manufacturing ‘Hell’ Won’t Slow Down Electric Cars
Bill Saporito
New York Times
March 4, 2018
“Having more orders than you can fill is generally deemed a high-class problem.”
“Despite demand for 400,000 of its Model 3, Tesla is proving otherwise, and that’s a problem for investors, not to mention the future of electric vehicles.”
“The Trump administration is dialing back regulations that locked carmakers into improving average fuel efficiency to 54.5 miles per gallon for cars and light-duty trucks by 2025. The Environmental Protection Agency, under its administrator, Scott Pruitt, is also looking to review California’s authority to impose stricter pollution rules, a move that prompted a blistering response from the California Air Resources Board’s chairwoman, Mary Nichols. “This is not a technical assessment,” she said. “It is a move to demolish the nation’s clean-car program.””
“President Trump claims that companies overestimated demand for highly efficient cars such as fully electric vehicles — E.V.s. Yet consumers’ initial rush to own Tesla’s Model 3, with current pricing starting around $50,000, certainly belies that claim.”
“Diesel is dying; the gasoline internal combustion engine may soon follow. The administration’s latest assault on the environment and our lungs rests partly on the premise that deregulation will make Detroit more competitive. It will do exactly the opposite.”
“When regulation forces an industry to invest in leading-edge technologies, that industry often gains a competitive advantage. E.V.s and ultraefficient internal combustion engines will dominate the auto industry within a decade.”
“European car companies have made huge commitments to electrifying their fleets. BMW just announced a new series of electric cars. Volvo, which is opening its first United States plant this year, has already signaled its all-electric future.”
“Volvo is owned by China’s Geely, and don’t underestimate the significance. China could become the next California when it comes to fuel economy and emissions. It’s already the top market for plug-ins, and as the world’s largest car market, China can make global manufacturers bend to its regulations.”
“If American companies fail to keep up technologically, the domestic auto industry will resemble the 1980s all over again, when Detroit ignored fuel economy to build gas-guzzler S.U.V.s because they were so profitable. When oil spiked again, the Big Three went into a decline that would not end until taxpayers ultimately paid the price in a huge bailout.”
fully electric vehicles…
Of course, there is no such thing. It’s just a fancy way to pretend you don’t know where electricity comes from. Expensive too.
“Expensive too.”
Failures are always expensive.
Expensive too
Expensive to buy, but not operate. Looking at it from a purely economic standpoint, the cost for the “fuel” for an electric vehicle for a mile of transportation is meaningfully less than gas for an ICE.
And there are no oil changes, etc., making maintenance cheaper.
HOWEVER, without the charging network fully built out, AND with the upfront costs, AND with my short commute, I still plan to drive my gas guzzler into the ground–8 years into ownership, and it’s doing just fine.
My out of pocket costs (net of private party value for my current ride) for a similar quality/size new EV would be $50k+…and so it would take an enormous number of miles to ultimately break even. And with my low-mileage life, that’s never going to happen.
I’m just hoping that this push to EVs lowers demand for good old-fashioned gasoline…reducing my already small cost of powering my car.
Now, my next car may very well be an EV…but that entirely depends on the charging network infrastructure at that time.
“Expensive to buy, but not operate.”
Provided you don’t get blowed up.
Hard to imagine how it could be cheaper to operate than an ICE with CNG, if that is what the electricity mine is running on.
I consider maintenance a cost of operation Blue. My understanding is that given that most EVs use regenerative braking (putting less wear and tear on brakes), the most common maintenance item with EVs is new tires (no oil to change, no transmission, etc.).
The fuel for a CNG powered ICE might be really cheap, but the maintenance on the ICE (and associated systems) is more costly than an EV’s maintenance.
I do believe that a natural gas turbine centrally located with the electricity distributed at >90% efficiency makes more sense than a whole bunch of CNG ICEs, for the reasons you describe.
Replacing poorly performing battery packs on electric vehicles every 30,000 miles at $6500 is double the typical maintenance cost of a engine based vehicle.
Outside the United States sales of NG vehicles are soaring. So I am not sure if that is true. Subsidies of all sorts are making comparisons difficult. However it is clear that a CNG vehicle lasts longer than oil based vehicle due to the fuel and there are a lot more natural gas vehicles in the world than pure electric vehicles which at least suggests that natural gas vehicles are cheaper.Going forward the cost of batteries may drop enough to change the equation, but right now I would say that CNG has the edge.
Replacing poorly performing battery packs on electric vehicles every 30,000 miles at $6500 is double the typical maintenance cost of a engine based vehicle.
I haven’t heard of any electric vehicles requiring that. I have heard of ones that seemed to be lasting much longer than the owner expected.
Battery life depends on many factors. Almost all EV makers have a warranty of 100k or 8 years on their battery. The Tesla shuttle model S with over 200k miles on it has lost only 6% of it’s range. There would be no need to replace a battery after 30k miles unless owner did something seriously wrong to it, like left it in the scorching heat for days and days on end.
I’m waiting for when solar hardware can generate enough power to replace itself AND keep your lights on, temperature comfy, and car charged. At that point things will get interesting. Are we there yet if initial cost were no object?
In some places we are there. I have a friend down in CA who works for nVidia and has a Tesla - he likes to post the graphs and figures from his solar installation - he’s darn close to net-zero on usage from the grid.
Yeah, we are close, but it depends on how much of a solar array you want to put up. Down here some wealthy people who don’t want arrays on their roof do arrays on the ground in the backyard. They have huge lots and they have a little square somewhere resembling what might be a small little garden, except for it is a solar array. They are almost all net zero usage. If they had more battery storage, they would be there.
net zero usage…
An entirely different thing than producing enough power to manufacture the solar array itself. “We” aren’t there. Only rich people can afford to be so silly.
Solar has cheap fuel costs but high capital costs thus a low interest environment was great for it. I do not see companies signing up people for cheap leases in a rising interest rate environment. Just one more example of market distortions caused by QE policies. Since the PTB, do not want to help trump that distortion is going away which is good for the future if not the present. Too much growth was borrowed from the future over the last ten years
I wonder Blue, what is the lifetime expected output of a top solar cell vs. the energy needed to create the solar cell in the first place…do you have any idea?
My understanding is that the ratio is still less than 1, but I haven’t see a comprehensive look at this.
https://www.networx.com/article/do-solar-panels-use-more-energy-than-the
Looks like we may be off a bit…if these guys are right, the payback is within 5 years, and the next 15 is gravy.
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35489.pdf
FWIW, this was published in 2004…with Bush in the White House.
I’d be interested in a counter-point if you have one.
Rental Watch,
That is about along the lines with what I’ve seen. My father owns a small solar outfitting company (and electrician company). In my opinion, the best thing for the industry has not been the low interest rates, it’s been the flood of cheap solar panels from China. Obviously, the environmental impact of producing the solar panels depends heavily on the manufacturing process of each individual company as well as the source of the energy required to manufacture the panels. So, panels produced in China are dirtier in the sense that more coal is used as the energy to create them. But panels installed in China also offer a bigger environmental payback because it reduces coal and its byproducts.
Here is a link to Silicon Valley Toxics Coalition which ranks each solar manufacturer by sustainability.
I get that this doesn’t address the economic aspect of payback, but that is really a foregone conclusion. It’s pretty easy to figure out where solar makes sense, and it makes a lot of sense in lots of places. The big barrier is whether the buyer has the capital to afford the upfront purchase, and whether they want panels on the roof. Another uncertainty is net metering rules of the local power company. This was a huge issue as to why SolarCity and Vivint pulled out of NV.
“I’d be interested in a counter-point if you have one.”
Different strokes for different folks.
High up in the rural remotes on a fierce stormy winter , $olar vs downed lines … Pricele$$
10 home batteries that rival Tesla’s Powerwall 2
http://www.businessinsider.com/rechargeable-battery-options-compete-tesla-2017-5
Forgot to include the link:
http://www.solarscorecard.com/2016-17/2016-17-SVTC-Solar-Scorecard.pdf
I’ve been out of it for a few years, but was very involved until the manufacturing in the US collapsed. The PhDs at the solar cell manufacturers told me then that the net energy return was less than zero. The whole thing was a subsidy grab and a perverse and wasteful pull forward of limited energy resources.
They said the “expected” life was 25 years but that was all assumption. The glue was a big question mark?
Five years? If you believe the pitch, write a check.
Five years? If you believe the pitch, write a check.
They are talking about the energy input to make the cells…don’t know how extensively they looked (do they count the energy that it takes to transport the food necessary to feed the workers)?
For me, the best indicator of the whole payback question is the unsubsidized return on investment with the measure being against a reasonable cost of power traditionally (including cost of distribution).
For me personally, it’s all about cost/benefit. In theory, given my high marginal cost of electricity (tiered pricing puts my marginal cost at a multiple of the typical $0.10 per kWh), even unsubsidized solar should be worth it.
However, I honestly haven’t looked at solar for my house. First, I have a fair amount of trees (and city ordinances that disallow cutting them down), and second, my roof was new 8 years ago, with 50-year life (supposedly). I’m not keen on creating new roof penetrations unless they are absolutely necessary.
If I want to save money on electricity, I’m better off with other upgrades… Going to a gas dryer is number 1 on the list.
“If I want to save money on electricity, I’m better off with other upgrades… Going to a gas dryer is number 1 on the list.”
Run it by the CEO of Whirlpool when you talk to him later. He’ll know whether it’s a good idea or not.
Housing my good friends.
Idaho City, ID Housing Prices Crater 28% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/idaho-city-id/market-trends/
“In 2012, when the city was still on a construction high, Kerry Connor said working as a real estate agent was exciting. ‘People came from all over the world to try and buy a Gladstone property. We’d advertise and in a few days, the property would be sold.’”
__________________________/
Did this not raise a red flag with Conner? With anyone? I would venture that almost no one outside of Australia knows where Gladstone is. Can one of our Aussie readers comment on the city being “famed” as an industrial powerhouse?
looks like cocaine kudlow staged a rally today.
Did the PPT assist with a cocaine high of liquidity?
‘The party ended early, he said, for high-end builders and investors, with sale prices for Vancouver detached houses priced at $5 million or more down 15 per cent to 18 per cent this year compared to 2017′
Yes, a decade or more long party wasn’t enough for these greedy bashtards. A bunch of these “investors” were foreign money launderers and locals trying to capitalize on foreign money launderers. Remember how posters would say, “they are just trying to get the money out of China, they don’t care if they lose a little.” Observe the losing, with no end in sight.
the condo’s downtown Vancouver will be even more troublesome in my opinion.
The condo fees are something fierce. How long can people hold on, if they were looking for appreciation in prices
Good point.
And how much is losing more than “a little” so that even the Chinese will shy away?
10% 20% 50% ??
SUBPRIME IS BACK!
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/43015-carrington-mortgage-services-launches-subprime-lending-program?eid=415509542&bid=2056371
“Carrington Mortgage Services is launching a mortgage lending program that looks an awful lot like pre-crisis subprime lending, but the company claims that its new “non-prime” loans are much safer than the subprime loans of the mid-2000s. According to Carrington, the program can make mortgages available loans to the approximately 100 million U.S. consumers who “have less than perfect credit.”
In a release, Carrington quotes a study from Experian that states that 21.2% of Americans have credit scores below 600. And those are the types of borrowers that Carrington is targeting with this new program.
“For these consumers, especially in today’s risk-averse lending environment, access to appropriate financing options can be a challenge,” the company said in a release. “Carrington has developed the expertise to qualify creditworthy borrowers with less-than-perfect credit, originate quality loans and service them.”
According to the company, its non-agency, non-prime loans are the “ideal solution” for borrowers that have “lower credit scores, high debt-to-income ratios, who are self-employed or who have had a recent credit event – such as foreclosure, bankruptcy, missed credit card or late mortgage payment – and may not be eligible for conventional or government loan product.”
Carrington’s loan program allows credit scores as low as 500. As stated above, “recent credit events” and a “history of late payments” are acceptable as well.
The loans are available for single-family homes, town houses and condos.
The program can be used for loans up to $1.5 million and cash-out refinances up to $500,000.
Additionally, Carrington said that for self-employed borrowers, bank statements are acceptable to verify income instead of IRS tax documents.”
“SUBPRIME IS BACK!”
It never left. 90%+ of all mortgages since 2008 are subprime.
Monterey, CA Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY As Market Floods With Excess Housing Inventory
https://www.movoto.com/monterey-ca/market-trends/
when my escrow closes do u think I will see some equity soon?
Wait a year, apply for a rever$e mortgage …
Source?
Housing my friend.
Parker, CO Housing Prices Crater 7%YOY
https://www.movoto.com/parker-co/market-trends/
Right……
Housing.
Agoura Hills, CA Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Los Angeles Area Mortgage Delinquencies Balloon
https://www.movoto.com/agoura-hills-ca/market-trends/
“… non-prime loans are the “ideal solution”..”
Here’s an ideal solution: Live within your friggin means…
But wait a minute, what are the neighbors going to think?
Too many people
Buying things they don’t need.
With money they don’t have
To impress people they don’t know..
What a wonderful world we all live in…
Live honestly? It’s really hard to cheat an honest man.
Silly Amish, hooks instead of fancy buttons, unable to create selfies, weak & unfa$hionable!
I hate to break it to you but the Amish have smart phones and buttons and mortgages.
Will, that’s only technically possible, as long as they don’t own them, thus, their use of motorized farm equipment & cordless drills.
http://amishamerica.com/do-amish-use-telephones/
Bass boats even.
Gwell, eyes am amish.taoist that uses dragonfly nymphs to catch a fish meal, guess eye could get similar taste$ @ delivery via Amazon/WholeFood$, reckon it’s true what others say, eyes am just flat out an outlier.
out·li·er
ˈoutˌlīər
noun
a person or thing situated away or detached from the main body or system.
a person or thing differing from all other members of a particular group or set.
amish.taoist
I don’t know any like that here abouts. Do you have the bicycle repair shop up the road?
My all-time favorite Amish man was the farmer who paid for his own heart transplant, with his own cash, out of pocket.
Of course Carrington’s website doesn’t give out any information until you hand over your personal info.
I think we’ve seen this dance before, recently. You might have a low FICO, but you’d need a big down payment. Of if you have a low down payment, the interest rate is sky-high. Or if you have a low down payment and an average interest rate, you need a sky-high FICO. But you *can’t* have a low-FICO, low-down, and low interest rate at the same time. They always get you somehow.
And I note that even these subprimes are still fully amortized: No I/O or neg-am.
Are they planning to sell this junk to Fannie Mae?
Donk,
The majority of defaulted mortgages are fully amortizing.
From the YouTube shooter’s personal website:
“BE AWARE! Dictatorship exists in all countries but with different tactics! They only care for personal short term profits & do anything to reach their goals even by fooling simple-minded people, hiding the truth, manipulating science & everything, putting public mental & physical health at risk, abusing non-human animals, polluting environment, destroying family values, promoting materialism & sexual degeneration in the name of freedom,….. & turning people into programmed robots”
http://nasimesabz.com/index.html
Looks like that URL was already removed from the DNS table(s).
Domain Name: NASIMESABZ.COM
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Dictatorship exists in all countries but with different tactics!
True but a mere cliche. Politics always & everywhere has to do with (1) who gives the orders (2) who takes the orders and (3) who pays for the whole mess. Before politics and before “polis” was even known to the human race, disaffected tribal members could simply move away and start another tribe, somewhere else. The Americas were one of the last stands of pre-political organizations vs. political entities. Ask the Injuns how that worked out for them.
Government by consent of the governed is still a work in progress.
Canada is a refuge for illegals and muslim POS, enjoy whats left of that country, we’ll buy it for pennys on the dollar.
Racis.
I think we were already beat by the Chinese. They sold us a bunch of junk, then when we stopped buying they printed like crazy and bought the place up. All your maple syrup iz ourz!
And now that’s happening to the Seattle area (esp. on the Eastside) as well. Lots of offshore money parked in residential and commercial RE right now.
Chinese money in downtown seattle (especially condos, green lake etc). Russian / eastern europe laundered $s on teh east side.
My observation has been Russian/eastern europe in Kirkland, Chinese in Bellevue
DebtDonkeys are DebtDonkeys regardless of origin.
“All your maple syrup iz ourz!”
By gawd that’s a declaration of war!
To be pedantic, the proper syntax is “All your maple syrup are belong to us.” That is, “you got pwned.”
Speaking of lights out and party over…. this…..
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-chicago-pensions-rahm-emanuel-20180403-story.html
@ 2B - I know you and I have been on common ground in this regard - the photo of Rahm “Tiny Dancer” Emmanuel says it all - I just wonder when his next ‘fish delivery’ will be.
It is a great democrat ponzi con game to attain and keep power.
Public unions are the largest political campaign contributors of all time (not to mention their muscle and violence).
They give 99%+ to democrats. No big city politician (D) could be elected without their help.
Once elected, they give insane contracts to the public unions who put them in power. Taxpayers? They are sheep. No one at the table is looking out for their interests.
It all works until the bills have to be paid.
And even when some sanity is introduced - it take only one public union goon loving judge can stop it and rape the taxpayers some more.
There is only one ending to this game at this point in time.
BANKRUPTCY.
2banana’s Rule:
Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh!t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy
++++++
A circuit court judge in March struck down a 2014 state law that eased pressure on the pension fund of Chicago Park District retirees. The law had increased Park District employees’ own contributions to the fund, increased their retirement-eligible age, reduced their annual cost-of-living increases and reduced duty disability benefits. But those changes will be rolled back, due to the ruling.
That means the Park District — you, taxpayers — will have to come up with reimbursements for workers’ higher contributions, plus interest.
@2B - Remember this post from an HBB’er last month?
http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-mexico-housing/
I wonder if the very illegals who are calling racis on Cali would call this mess racis?
A scene from “Doctor Zhivago” comes to mind…
Imagine LA and California with all illegals deported (instead of given sanctuary). Literally MILLIONS of homes, apartments and condos free up.
++++
The new evil in California: Single-family homes
Hot Air | April 3, 2018 | Jazz Shaw
California is, without a doubt, legally part of the United States of America. But for anyone not living there and peering in from the outside, it can frequently look like an alien civilization. Yet another tale of the strange and bizarre comes to us from Mark Vallianatos of LAplus (a “think tank focused on planning and housing”) writing at the LA Times. The bee in Mark’s bonnet has to do with the amount of property in the Los Angeles area which is zoned for single-family homes. (I know this is sounding as if it’s going to be as thrilling as watching paint dry, but hang in there. It gets better.) He’s arguing in favor of a new bill, SB 827, which would relax those zoning regulations and allow for duplexes, apartment complexes and all the rest to take over sections of the former single-family home neighborhoods.
So what’s the problem with all of these single-family homes? You don’t really need too many guesses to get this one, do you? They’re racist, of course!
Apparently, the fact that fewer minorities in that area can afford to buy a single-family home and so they tend to live in apartments or other rental units makes the concept of the single-family home racist by definition. Now, I’ll grant you that the price of housing in LA (and most of California) is so far out of whack that it’s insane, but that’s not the fault of zoning. Much like New York City, you’ve simply packed so many people and such a vast concentration of wealth into a small area that the competition for desirable housing has reached Death Match 2018 levels. Apparently, your solution is to have the government ride in, wipe out the most desirable homes and build more towering boxes to be used as rentals.
If LA collectively decides to change their zoning laws to deal with their overpopulation, outrageous prices and lack of housing, that’s up to them. It’s a completely local matter. But you don’t need to preach to us that wanting to live in a quiet, nice neighborhood is a product of racism.
But for anyone not living there and peering in from the outside, it can frequently look like an alien civilization.
Third world civilization sounds like a better description. When walls with pieces of broken glass cemented to the top become the norm, you will know that the fundamental transformation has been completed.
did u miss buying the dip this morning?
Frisco, TX Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Rolls Across Dallas-Fort Worth
https://www.movoto.com/frisco-tx/market-trends/
No time to link but it appears trailer foreclosures are soaring. We still have too many low skilled workers in the country. Certainly, we do not need to import more. The restrictions Trump has put on immigration has led to historically low rates of unemployed for blacks and Hispanics. However, if you want wage gains we need to restrict immigration even more. I do mean both legal and illegal despite illegal being far more pragmatic.
We still have too many low skilled workers in the country
“Certainly, we do not need to import more.”
Well, iffin’ ya get the legal ones going trailer to trailer stealing opoid$, to show up to work @ 5am to pick.the.harve$t all.day.long, week after week, you might bee on to something.
And why do we have so many opioid addled people? Could it be open borders allowed in both the drugs and the drug dealers? It also drove down wages to levels which took all the hope of ever having decent life thus further encouraging addiction. The free enterprise system cannot just work for employers if it is going to continue. There must be times of labor shortages that drive up wages. Necessary is the mother of invention, it is precisely labor shortages that drive automation which increases productivity and raises living standards. We have had enough of first generation farm workers and second generation gang members.
“And why do we have so many opioid addled people?”
Chronic pain $ubscrition$ @ CVS/Walgreen$ drive.thru … Versus … Drug running across the Rio Grande …
Place you bet$ …
IT’S RAINING DRUGS —
Drug companies submerged WV in opioids: One town of 3,000 got 21 million pills
The state has the highest rate of overdose deaths in the country.
BETH MOLE - 1/30/2018,
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/01/drug-companies-submerged-wv-in-opioids-one-town-of-3000-got-21-million-pills/
And why do we have so many opioid addled people?
Two main reasons:
1) Purdue pharmacy
2) Group think by the medical academia based on one paragraph in a prestigious medical journal
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/2/12/16998122/opioid-crisis-oxycontin-purdue-advertising
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/06/nejm-letter-opioids/528840/
When the legal supplies dried up the Mexican cartels stepped in with black tar and illegal pills
All true but ignores when we finally tried to address the problem the Mexican cartels stepped in a filled the void. Of course the Chinese helped but that is another story
Let ‘em shoot fentanyl.
All true but ignores when we finally tried to address the problem the Mexican cartels stepped in a filled the void. Of course the Chinese helped but that is another story
Right-o. Medical industry created the demand, Mexico and China created the supply, with big pharma being complicit.
“Let ‘em shoot fentanyl.”
A new religion for the masses.
From Wikipedia …
“Opium production in Afghanistan has been on the rise since U.S. occupation started in 2001.[1] Afghanistan’s opium poppy production goes into more than 90% of heroin worldwide.”
Let that sink in a bit.
Okay, moving on …
“Afghanistan has been the world’s greatest illicit opium producer, ahead of Burma (Myanmar), the “Golden Triangle”, and Latin America since 1992, excluding the year 2001. Afghanistan is the main producer of opium in the “Golden Crescent”. Based on UNODC data, opium poppy cultivation was more in each of the growing seasons in the periods between 2004 and 2007 than in any one year during Taliban rule. More land is now used for opium in Afghanistan than is used for coca cultivation in Latin America. In 2007, 93% of the non-pharmaceutical-grade opiates on the world market originated in Afghanistan.[4] This amounts to an export value of about $4 billion, with a quarter being earned by opium farmers and the rest going to district officials, insurgents, warlords, and drug traffickers.[5] In the seven years (1994–2000) prior to a Taliban opium ban, the Afghan farmers’ share of gross income from opium was divided among 200,000 families.[6] In addition to opiates, Afghanistan is also the largest producer of cannabis (mostly as hashish) in the world.[7][8] In 2004, a fatwa was issued by Muslim clerics claiming that opium production is contrary to the sharia law and that opium producers would face punishments in accordance with the sharia.[9] As of 2017, opium production provides about 400,000 jobs in Afghanistan, more than the Afghan National Security Forces.”
“opium poppy cultivation was more in each of the growing seasons in the periods between 2004 and 2007 than in any one year during Taliban rule.”
$ucess, 1st, ya shock & awe ‘em, then ya begin the noble ta$k of “Nation Building” … Productivity re$ults from a x2 Trillion$ U$D USA taxpayer foreign inve$tment.
Back to infra$tucture & Shelterlessness folks
why do we have so many opioid addled people?
Human nature is what it is, and the world is what it is now (almost completely insane). The world has been at war since 1914, and we now have several generations of “children of violence” (read Doris Lessing).
“The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars,
But in ourselves, that we are underlings.”
Humankind could be doing a lot better, and could develop far beyond its current “underling” status.
How picking tobacco in Connecticut influenced King’s life
By Sophia Tewa Updated 12:59 pm, Wednesday, April 4, 2018
On his first visit to Connecticut in June 1944, a 15-year-old Michael King, later known as Martin Luther King, Jr., expressed awe at the freedoms of the North.
King, who grew up in Atlanta, worked in the summers of 1944 and 1947 on the tobacco farm of cigar maker Cullman Brothers Tobacco in Simsbury. As an incoming freshman, he planned to attend Morehouse College in Atlanta during the school year and in the summer lived in a dormitory with other students, working on the farm to pay for his college expenses.
That first summer in Connecticut, King picked tobacco in the sun, but also experienced for the first time life outside of the segregated South. In his letters to his mother, he wrote about eating at the finest restaurant in Hartford, going to the movies, and leading prayers with his coworkers on the weekend.
“We go to any place we want to and sit anywhere we want to,” King told his mother. He also wrote about his church in Simsbury where white and black residents worshipped together.
“After that summer in Connecticut, it was a bitter feeling going back to segregation,” King wrote in his autobiography. “It was hard to understand why I could ride wherever I pleased on the train from New York to Washington and then had to change to a Jim Crow car at the nation’s capital in order to continue the trip to Atlanta.”
https://www.ctpost.com/news/article/How-picking-tobacco-in-Connecticut-influenced-12802478.php
in the summer lived in a dormitory with other students, working on the farm to pay for his college expenses.
Wow, part time farm work pays extremely well! No wonder there’s caravans of folks coming from parts south. I’m going to look into myself! It’s like teaching school, except the opposite! Work the summer, the rest of the year off.
http://www.collegesimply.com/colleges/georgia/morehouse-college/price/
$47,952
“No wonder there’s caravans of folks coming from parts south”
DAILY wage $outh of the Rio Grande: $5.76
Which way would you try, South to Pananma or point$ North?
“The map, is knot the territory” … Si, eyes can wash yer Mercede$, no problemo!
in the summer lived in a dormitory with other students, working on the farm to pay for his college expenses.
Pretty amazing that once upon a time, THIS was the relationship between wages and the cost of things in America.
I did that.
Not even once upon a time. I went to a state school for graduate school. Full-time in-state tuition was $840/semester. And this was in the mid-90s, not the mid 60s.
Now you’ll be lucky to pay just $5000 a year at state.
Sad Pandas and DebtDonkeys.
My daughter is at Western in Bellingham, WA - $25k/yr for everything.
When I was in college in the late 60s, my dad worked for the college, so I got a big tuition break. Lived at home for no charge, free board. Cleaned the college dorm rugs in the summers & made $1.60 an hour. I lived very close to the bone. Graduated debt-free (and car-free). Those were the days.
Living with the folks wasn’t as bad as it may sound. I had already moved out at age 16 & then back in again at age 18. I had already “cut the cord” psychologically.
I regret never having thanked my dad for his foresight in getting 3 different college jobs in a row while I was in college, saving me a ton of money. Too late now.
I am paying cash for my daughter’s education. Zero debt.
Because of democrat Jim Crow laws?
Prescott, AZ Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Foreign Speculators Dump Properties
https://www.movoto.com/prescott-az/market-trends/
Interesting idea to deal with a real e$tate agent … Talk about a career change!
A former U.S. Army sniper and two former American soldiers agreed to become hitmen for a crime boss seeking to settle a score with a real estate agent in the Philippines, prosecutors say.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ex-u-army-soldiers-worked-090241199.html
12 days ’til Patriot’s Day. I felt kinda slow on my run today though. I’m thinking this might not be best marathon time ever. At least I scored a deal on AirBnB on a decent room near MIT.
Are you going to Beantown? I have a brother there I visit every year or so. Weather there has been miserable off & on for some weeks.
Yeah, I fly out on the 12th. First time there, so will be there for about a week surrounding the race. Excited to see the city even if I don’t have my best race ever. The older I get, the harder it becomes to recover from hard workouts!
Johnny Rivers - Memphis Tennessee
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89Sbdk1mh3k
Rockin’ Pneumonia and Boogie Woogie Flu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvJ78hYI6wk
“A sustained attack on buyer demand in Vancouver’s detached housing market has decimated sales and is leading to ‘unbelievable’ price reductions.”
Journalists blithely ignored year after year of unprecedented, unsustainable, insanely high rates of appreciation. But now, the moment prices begin a return to normalcy, the mean reversion process is ‘unbelievable’?
Go figure…
More than a million undocumented immigrants have received California driver’s licenses
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article207939584.html
The Deep State at work.
You wanna know the fun part of this? If you don’t specifically apply for a federally compliant “Real ID” license, you get the same license as illegals. People over at Calguns.net found this out the hard way, because the CA DOJ won’t allow the illegal licenses to be used as ID/proof of residence to buy a gun. Some posters have even gone so far as to apply for the real ID license, provide copies of the necessary docs (SS Card, Birth cert) and STILL end up with the illegal license.
It’s a huge fucstercluck.
More than a million undocumented immigrants have received California driver’s licenses
And I would imagine that they can then move to other states and obtain licenses (and probably other benefits as well) simply by turning in their CA licenses.
Where’s the wall to wall coverage? Where’s the march? Where’s the walkout?
All rifles 374 a year
opioid overdose 50,000 a year
Knives kill far more people in the United States than rifles do every year.
BENNY JOHNSON
2:19 PM 02/19/2018
However, recent statistics from 2016 show that knives actually kill nearly five times as many people as rifles that year.
According to the FBI, 1,604 people were killed by “knives and cutting instruments” and 374 were killed by “rifles” in 2016.
http://dailycaller.com/2018/02/19/knives-gun-control-fbi-statistics/
By ELIZABETH O’BRIEN November 27, 2017
Some 50,000 Americans died from an opioid overdose in 2016, according to government estimates. That’s 137 people a day, or roughly one death every 12 minutes from prescription painkillers, heroin or the synthetic opioid fentanyl.
You can’t put a price tag on the emotional devastation that the opioid epidemic has wrought on families from Portland to Pittsburgh. But quantifying the economic impact of the crisis would help in marshaling resources to fight it.
http://time.com/money/5032445/cost-fix-opioid-crisis/
Where’s the wall to wall coverage? Where’s the march? Where’s the walkout?
It’s not about “saving lives” but about “seizing control”.
30k+ vehicular accidents (leading cause of death for those 5-25), and number 2 for people 25+).
How to Win an Argument About Guns
The New York Times
Nikolas Kristof
April 3, 2018
“You liberals are in a panic over guns, but look at the numbers. Any one gun is less likely to kill a person than any one vehicle. But we’re not traumatized by cars, and we don’t try to ban them.”
“It’s true that any particular car is more likely to be involved in a fatality than any particular gun. But cars are actually a perfect example of the public health approach that we should apply to guns. We don’t ban cars, but we do work hard to take a dangerous product and regulate it to limit the damage.”
“We do that through seatbelts and airbags, through speed limits and highway barriers, through driver’s licenses and insurance requirements, through crackdowns on drunken driving and texting while driving. I once calculated that since 1921, we had reduced the auto fatality rate per 100 million miles driven by 95 percent.”
“Sure, we could have just said “cars don’t kill people, people kill people.” Or we could have said that it’s pointless to regulate cars because then bicyclists will just run each other down. Instead, we relied on evidence and data to reduce the carnage from cars. Why isn’t that a model for guns?”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/03/opinion/gun-control-youtube-shooting.html
http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/PressRelease/201803/t20180319_1588851.html
China
“In the first two months, the land area purchased by the real estate development enterprises totaled 23.45 million square meters, was down by 1.2 percent year-on-year, that of the last whole year was 15.8 percent. The total transaction of land reached 79.4 billion yuan, remained the same level year-on-year, that of the last whole year was an increase of 49.4 percent.”
my signing date is on the 19th. Then the cash starts to roll in.