April 8, 2018

Seeing Their Homes As Units To Gamble

A report from North Shore News in Canada. “For anyone hoping a quick home sale on the North Shore will still result in lottery windfall, the real estate market has news – the party’s over, at least for now. Two years ago, gold rush fever gripped the real estate market, particularly at the high end in North and West Vancouver. Today, the market can best be described as becalmed, with potential buyers and sellers warily waiting each other out. When potential buyers view a detached home on the North Shore these days, instead of asking ‘How soon are you taking offers?’ or ‘How much over the asking price will I have to offer?,’ the questions are more likely to be ‘How long have you been on the market?’ or ‘When was your last price reduction?’ or ‘What is your assessed value?’ said Brent Eilers of Remax Masters Realty, a Realtor who’s been in business on the North Shore for 35 years.”

“‘That’s a dramatic difference,’ he said. ‘When the market was booming in 2016, everything was selling.’ In West Vancouver, sales of detached homes are down 63 per cent compared to historical norms and down 82 per cent since the fever pitch of 2016, he said.”

“According to the real estate board statistics, the price of a ‘benchmark’ West Vancouver home was $2.9 million in the first quarter of this year, compared to $3.1 million during the same time last year. Homes are also staying on the market for longer before selling and are having to reduce prices, he added. ‘The top end has fallen off the turnip truck.’”

From the Vancouver Sun. “Despite a feeling of ever rising price gains, there are signs that some buyers are reaching ‘a cause for pause when looking at some of the prices,’ especially at the top end of the market, says Michael Ferreira of Vancouver-based Urban Analytics, which provides data about new condos for developers, planners and bankers. According to independent March figures produced by SnapStats Publishing Company, the average condo price in West Vancouver dropped 33 per cent in the past two months from $1.492 million to $938,000. ”

“It’s a sign that while clamouring will continue and prices will keep rising for buyers of condos in the $700,000 to $800,000 range and lower, more established, savvy buyers could be starting to step back. ‘The average prices of condos in downtown Vancouver dropped from $950,000 to $840,000 in the last two months because of the change in high end condo prices,’ says Ian Watt of Sotheby’s International Realty.”

From CBC News. “Nearly half of all new condos sales that were finalized last year in the Greater Toronto Area were for rental purposes, but income from them could be falling short of ownership costs, according to a new study by CIBC. Rental investors accounted for 48 per cent of new condo closings in 2017— with the majority of them buying the property through a mortgage at 77 per cent, according to the CIBC Capital Markets and Urbanation report.”

“But more than 44 per cent of mortgage holders were cash flow negative — meaning the owners were spending more to maintain the condos every month than they were getting in rental income. The ‘changing economics’ of holding condos as an investment, while supply in the market increases within the next three years could pose a challenge to investors, said CIBC economist Benjamin Tal. ‘We estimate that for new units in development that were pre-sold over the past year and are tentatively scheduled for completion in 2021, in order for carrying costs to be covered with a 20 per cent down payment, rent would need to rise by 17 per cent over the next four years if there was no change in mortgage rates,’ he said in the report.”

“If interest rates did rise by one percentage point, rents would need to increase by an average of about seven per cent a year, he added.”

From the Financial Post. “Nearly half of all investors who bought condominiums completed in the Toronto area last year aren’t making enough rent to cover their holding costs, despite chalking up exceptional gains on the value of their properties, a new study finds. No less than 44 per cent of investors who took possession of new units in 2017 were in negative cash flow. Though 45 per cent of those investors were short by less than $500 per month, another 20 per cent were short between $500 and $1,000 per month. And 34.5 per cent were in the hole for more than $1,000 per month.”

“Roughly 60,000 new units are currently under construction in the GTA and 20,000 new units are expected to be completed annually between now and 2021. ‘We know now that many of them are in negative cash flow, but they also made very nice money on their investment,’ said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets Inc. ‘The question is will they begin to sell?’”

From Our Windsor. “The Toronto housing bubble resembles a drug epidemic in that it’s dangerous, addictive and will destroy your health, bank account and family. The pills dangle before your eyes. Yes, you get a wonderful floating high when you score a big profit based on nothing but the passing of time and a well-timed flip. But sooner or later you’ll encounter a sudden drop in the market and it will do you in.”

“‘This impacts your health. Financially, it breaks families,’ one trapped homebuyer told the Toronto Star’s real estate reporter, Tess Kalinowski. He is in a pickle. He offers lessons for the fortunately not-yet-pickled. Kalinowski writes expertly on the consequences of an unreliably hot market. (There is no such thing as a reliable one. That’s the nature of the beast.) Kalinowski’s job is to take the long view. The buyers took the short one. Readers are aghast. No, we would never do that. But we might.”

“The sad thing is that the buyers had no pressing need to move in the first place. Their error was in seeing their homes not as nests but as units to gamble in the Toronto housing casino. Everyone has to live somewhere. They should have stayed put.”

The Hamilton Spectator. “Real estate sales in Hamilton-Burlington have plummeted for the third straight month — and this time prices took a sizeable tumble as well. The Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington says residential sales fell by 37. 8 per cent in March 2018 compared to a year ago. Sale prices fell by 13.8 per cent. That means the average sales price in Hamilton-Burlington was $530,843 last month compared to $615,776 in March last year.”

“The average sale price of freehold homes fell 15.5 per cent. The Hamilton-Burlington area was not alone is experiencing the declines in sales and prices. ‘Our area experienced similar cooling off as is being reported by other real estate markets in the Golden Horseshoe area,’ said RAHB CEO George O’Neill. O’Neill said ‘the price drop is catching up to the decline in sales … as people see the properties sitting longer. In order to sell them, the prices have to come down. That’s pure supply and demand economics.’”

From York Region. “The price of homes in York Region are inching up but remain significantly lower than last year, the figures show. Prices increased 4 per cent, from an average $898,888 in February to $939,659 in March. But that is down 20 per cent from the average of $1,182,406 in March 2018.”

“Meanwhile, house sales continue their upwards trend but also remain well off the pace of last year’s frantic pace. Sales were up 24 per cent, from 805 in February to 1,066 in March. But that is 44 per cent lower than the 2,402 homes sold in March 2017.”

From the Calgary Herald. “The average Alberta household would see debt-servicing costs shoot up by more than $1,200 a year — the highest jump in the country — if interest rates rise by one percentage point, according to a new report by RBC Economics. It could be worse. Such an increase would cost the Alberta treasury $226 million. We can quibble on who would feel more pain, but the simple fact is interest rates have been climbing in Canada since last summer.”

“‘On a household basis, it’s in Alberta where the debt load is the highest and the debt-service costs are highest,’ said RBC senior economist Robert Hogue. ‘It doesn’t mean Alberta households are on the edge of a precipice, because they do earn more still than Canadians in other regions of the country. But that being said, they will probably be more sensitive to interest-rate increases than in other parts of the country.’”

“Hogue also believes Albertans would feel the effect of higher rates sooner than other Canadians because more people in the province have shorter-term mortgages and will face an interest rate reset.”

From Chat News Today. “A shot in the arm could be on the way to the Medicine Hat housing market. The City’s Land and Business Support Department is looking at lowering prices on a number of subdivisions that have sat empty for a decade. A focus is being put on building townhomes and condos, with only around 30 units being sold in Medicine Hat last year.”

“The City is looking at major decreases in three neighbourhoods, slashing land prices of up to 40 percent in some cases. The largest proposed cuts would be in Ranchlands, with four properties being considered for price adjustments. Three of the four lots would see reductions above 37 percent, including a one-acre parcel currently listed at $768,000 potentially dropping to $462,000.”

“Garry Ruff with the Canadian Home Builders Association of Medicine Hat said it’s a great opportunity for developers. ‘There’s probably developers and builders out there that have looked at these properties,’ said Ruff. ‘Crunching the numbers, they felt it was a little too tight. But, this might give them the opportunity to move forward, purchase the properties, and build something for prospective buyers.’”




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120 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 09:02:54

‘For anyone hoping a quick home sale on the North Shore will still result in lottery windfall, the real estate market has news – the party’s over, at least for now. Two years ago, gold rush fever gripped the real estate market’

I’m always surprised that writers or participants can’t see their own crazy talk. Housing markets should never, ever be like this.

“At least for now”? They still hold out hope that the “magic river of money” will reappear. I saw some articles saying, “Toronto has likely hit bottom”.

Comment by scdave
2018-04-08 09:27:47

“magic river of money” ??

Isn’t Toronto on the short list for Amazon ?? I wonder if the Trump attack has pushed Toronto closer to the finish line…

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 09:39:00

‘on the short list for Amazon’

The Canadian government and central bank have set out to bring these bubbles down. As have the Australians. I read that bay aryan shack prices are going up by over $1,000 a day. How long do you suppose that can go on without a disaster happening?

Comment by scdave
2018-04-08 10:11:52

How long do you suppose that can go on without a disaster happening ??

Its beyond insane here…I have been expecting said disaster for some time now…It just has not happened yet…Its the same story…Multiple offers with ridicules overbids…

I tell you what I do see…More people bailing out…The gal that did my shower doors for me just picked up and left…He family has been in the valley for 5 generations and are still here..She sold her house in San Jose, sold her cabin in Tahoe and moved to Idaho…

My sister called me yesterday and asked me about the possible tax consequences for the sale of her Townhouse…She has been there 23 years…What prompted her to call me is because the Townhome next door just sold for $1,224,000….She paid $215,000. in 1995…My brother is asking the same questions…

Like I said, I see many long time residents leaving and even more people talking about it…Is it because of the money ?? Thats part of it sure but just as big a part is the feeling that the quality of life around here has changed for the worse at least as compared to the way it was for them 10-20 years ago…

Thats my 2-cents…

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-04-08 10:21:24

“Thats part of it sure but just as big a part is the feeling that the quality of life around here has changed for the worse at least as compared to the way it was for them 10-20 years ago…”

Filed under: When rubes unwittingly vote against their own interests, and continue to do it over and over while the pain gets worse and worse. Enjoy!

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 10:28:20

‘many long time residents leaving and even more people talking about it’

I’ve been thinking the bay area is in recession, probably since the last quarter of 2017. I know it’s old news but a boom causes a bust. There ain’t no way around it and no one can deny there’s been a heckofa boom. I read last week median San Fernando Valley shacks went over $700k.

Household Income and Average Income in San Fernando Valley
Average Household Income $87,197
Median Household Income $65,029
Percent Increase/Decrease in Income Since 2000 30%
Percent Increase/Decrease in Income Since 2010 7%

My point originally was amazon can’t stop the government from popping the bubble. Yet our government fails to see that $1,000 a day is beyond kooky.

 
Comment by Montana
2018-04-08 16:16:42

San Fernando is not Bay area..

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 16:18:24

I know, but it was a recent number. I can remember that area getting crushed last decade.

 
Comment by SV guy
2018-04-08 17:20:22

The quality of life here has gone downhill by a substantial margin imo.

 
Comment by In Santa Clara
2018-04-09 07:37:16

Visiting the the Santa Clara campus this week. In the immediate vicinity of the campus, everything looks great, gleaming condos, nice stores, etc., but just a few blocks past the bubble is what looks like a slum.

The only reason I could fathom for living here is to make a quick killing on stock options. And that is just another gamble, which has become the norm in the new “winner takes it all” economy.

 
Comment by In Santa Clara
2018-04-09 08:03:15

I know, but it was a recent number.

I’m sure the numbers in SV are similar. Not everyone is a highly paid bit twiddler. I had a late dinner last night at a Red Robin in Santa Clara. The people that work there don’t have stock options or six figure salaries.

In the new economy the losers vastly outnumber the winners. The only way you can afford a nice house out here that isn’t in the boondocks is if you win the stock option lottery.

When I was a kid in SoCal, the neighbor next door was a produce manager at Von’s. His wife didn’t work and they could afford a suburban home on just his income. They didn’t need a HELOC to buy a car and didn’t have a wallet full of maxed out credit cards.

 
Comment by rms
2018-04-09 08:15:46

“The only way you can afford a nice house out here that isn’t in the boondocks is if you win the stock option lottery.”

If you don’t buy in a dip the property tax could be fairly high.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-04-09 08:35:24

Housing

Highland Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/highland-beach-fl/market-trends/

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2018-04-09 09:36:02

Red Robin in Santa Clara

Rivermark? I worked very close to there last year.

 
Comment by drumminj
2018-04-09 18:44:42

The only way you can afford a nice house out here that isn’t in the boondocks is if you win the stock option lottery.

To be fair it’s not purely a ‘lottery’. Most of the folks at these tech companies didn’t party in high school, but studied/practiced math and their computers. They went to a decent college and took hard classes (multiple semesters of calculus, linear algebra, quantum mechanics, discrete math, algorithms, operating systems, etc), and work hard to make their company succeed.

Yes, there’s a lot of luck involved. And a bunch of people on the wagon that don’t belong. But a lot of hard work goes into getting a CS degree, building a solid resume, and lastly contributing to a company that manages to be successful enough to IPO or get bought out at a high multiple.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2018-04-09 20:23:51

I took the “lottery” statement the opposite way. I think almost everyone who wins it deserves it for the reasons you state. I think what makes it a lottery is that so many others do just as much but will never win it due to not being at the right place at the right time. And I’m not talking about myself…I can’t stand working that way :-).

 
Comment by drumminj
2018-04-10 06:58:22

so many others do just as much but will never win it due to not being at the right place at the right time

Definitely true. As I stated, luck is absolutely a factor. The company having the right idea at the right time the market is ready for it, etc.

I suppose what I am largely reacting to is a sentiment towards those who are succeeding in today’s tech market that they don’t deserve it and are just lucky — hence we should tax them more, etc. The reality is, many of those succeeding today are reaping the rewards of decisions made long ago to pay attention in school and do homework at night, not party through college, etc.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-04-08 09:32:30

They still hold out hope that the “magic river of money” will reappear.

A wise man once said “get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be less tomorrow for decades to come.”

He’s right.

Comment by azdude
2018-04-08 09:58:32

lmao 10 years of that same bs as people have gotten filthy rich.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-04-08 10:37:01

Housing DumpsterFire. . . Housing.

San Francisco, CA Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Homeowners Borrow To Meet Mortgage Payments

https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca-94109/home-values/

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Comment by In Colorado
2018-04-08 11:37:29

Agreed, as scdave pointed out above, he has relatives who are going to walk away with 7 figure profits. Had they bailed out years ago they would have left money on the table.

But I also think now is the time to take the money and run in California.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 11:40:43

‘are going to walk away with 7 figure profits’

Only if some sucker pays for it with a huge loan. And a song, maybe.

 
Comment by scdave
2018-04-08 11:57:19

And a song, maybe ??

LOL…

Had they bailed out years ago they would have left money on the table ??

The stunning part is that appreciation around here for the most part has been a gradual grind upward with some stops and downdrafts but what has happened in the last few years has been hard to believe and even harder to understand…A million dollars use to mean something…

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-04-08 12:03:48

And therein lies the problem. Historically houses depreciate.

There is a problem.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-04-08 12:06:01

Only if some sucker pays for it with a huge loan.

True. But are houses in San Jose, Santa Clara and Palo Alto languishing?

Of course, if everyone suddenly runs for the exits, then it’s definitely game over.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 12:17:19

April 3, 2018

“San Francisco’s luxury condo market, which comprise 10% of the city’s housing market and start at $2 million, are concentrated in the southeast quadrant. The newest crop is there, too. Sales have been robust in all areas, said Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst at Paragon Real Estate, except the Financial District, where the sinking Millennium Tower has also sunk sales in the district by 50%.”

“He is, however, more cautiously optimistic about the ultra-luxury housing market. ‘For houses selling for over $5 million and condos and co-ops priced at $3 million or more, the supply of listings has been surging well beyond demand,’ he said. ‘And many of these listings are expiring without selling.’”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10391

 
Comment by GreenEggsAndSpam
2018-04-08 15:59:18

Its always time to take the money and run from Clownifornia. The traffic, the taxes, the cost of living, all the crazy people - from those crapping on the street to those in sacramento crapping on the working middle class - theres so many better places in the world - and I do mean world.

Sometimes the only way to win is to not play the game.

 
Comment by GreenEggsAndSpam
2018-04-08 16:53:16

I’ll add that I bought in 96, sold in 04 for 3.5 times what I bought it for - that same place took another 10 years or so to get back to the price I sold it for. In that 10 years the quality of life appears to have gotten much worse (I moved out of state in 06, been back to the are about every 2-3 years) while my quality of life (lifestyle, cost of living, and job/salary) all improved; my lifestyle now is just not available in ca - to crowded, too expensive, too many legal restrictions. Basically not much freedom. People are smart to get out.

 
Comment by Lurker
2018-04-08 17:28:56

“Had they bailed out years ago they would have left money on the table.”

The concept of “money on the table” is code for “fear of missing out.” This is the problem with a population conditioned by desperation and greed to think in terms of opportunity cost rather than risk. As if losing out on some extra gains is the worst-case scenario.

It’s not “money on the table” in an unpredictable mania based on fraud and manipulation. It’s winnings from high-risk gambling where perfect timing can only be achieved through luck or insider knowledge.

 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-04-08 18:03:03

high-risk gambling…

Yeah. The winners or pretend to be winners tell you are really stupid if you did not bet against unreasonable odds like them, with money you didn’t have. I guess it’s an integral part of the degenerate mindset.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-08 18:09:54

“I’ll add that I bought in 96, sold in 04 for 3.5 times what I bought it for -…”

We bought and sold in CA on the exact same timing. Thanks to the Fed’s Quantitative Easing-funded housing market bailout following the 2007-2009 financial collapse, there has never been another comparable entry point to the CA housing market to what we experienced in 1996.

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Santa Clara
2018-04-09 08:16:40

“At least for now”? They still hold out hope that the “magic river of money” will reappear.

Hardly surprising, given that working a “job” will get you nowhere these days. Plus it doesn’t help when one meets people who timed it right and made a killing.

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-04-08 09:03:02

Kenmore, WA Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Seattle Housing Correction Expands

https://www.movoto.com/kenmore-wa/market-trends/

Comment by redmondjp
2018-04-09 09:06:49

#fakenewsfromMortgageWatch

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-04-09 10:12:35

Hello my good friend.

Castro Valley, CA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY

https://www.movoto.com/castro-valley-ca/market-trends/

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 09:07:57

‘This impacts your health. Financially, it breaks families,’ one trapped homebuyer told the Toronto Star’s real estate reporter, Tess Kalinowski. He is in a pickle. He offers lessons for the fortunately not-yet-pickled. Kalinowski writes expertly on the consequences of an unreliably hot market. (There is no such thing as a reliable one. That’s the nature of the beast.) Kalinowski’s job is to take the long view. The buyers took the short one. Readers are aghast. No, we would never do that. But we might.’

This one article has apparently stunned people up north. Like the New Zealand reality show where the sellers, (gasp!) didn’t make money on their flip. It was like a national mourning.

Yet I’ve posted FB stories from Canada not that long ago and going back to the initial collapse in Vancouver in 2016. I suppose this report got more widespread coverage.

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-04-08 09:20:49

Poverty is moving to the suburbs. The war on poverty hasn’t followed:

“The trend has been as swift and sweeping as it has been overlooked. In 1990, Americans in poverty were 14 percent likelier to live in a city than in a suburb. By 2012, they were 22 percent likelier to live in a suburb. In D.C.’s suburbs, over the first 15 years of the millennium, the number of people in poverty grew by 66 percent.

Elsewhere, the explosion was even bigger. Sun Belt cities led the way. The increase was 126 percent in Atlanta’s suburbs; 129 percent in Austin’s; 139 percent in Las Vegas’s. The Midwest wasn’t far behind: 62 percent in Cleveland’s suburbs; 84 percent in Chicago’s; 87 percent in Detroit’s. The suburban poor are likelier than their urban counterparts to be white and to own their homes, but otherwise they’re demographically similar, according to a study from the Brookings Institution. Two-thirds of both groups work, about 15 percent have a disability and nearly half are in deep poverty, below 50 percent of the federal poverty line.

Today, cities such as Washington are still, in many ways, occupied by two different societies, separate and unequal. The only thing that has changed is which society lives where.

Elsewhere in the D.C. area, suburban poverty has been driven mostly by other racial and ethnic groups. Across the region, 81 percent of Hispanics in poverty lived in the suburbs as of 2013, compared with 70 percent of whites and 53 percent of African Americans.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/poverty-is-moving-to-the-suburbs-the-war-on-poverty-isnt-keeping-up/2018/04/05/cd4bc770-3823-11e8-9c0a-85d477d9a226_story.html?utm_term=.fd1ec203d5fc

Comment by rms
2018-04-08 11:05:13

It all begins when you say, “I do.” :)

 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-04-08 15:28:21

U get mo free sht in the city
Subsidized bus,etc

 
Comment by oxide
2018-04-08 16:06:15

Key phrase: 81 percent of Hispanics in poverty lived in the suburbs

Poverty didn’t rise because people lost jobs or money. Poverty rose because poor illegal immigrants moved in. And they do love their suburbs. They can fit a lot of people in those cold-war houses, renters and relatives coming and going. And they can park their white vans on the street.

And I suspect it’s not really “poverty.” The official income falls below the poverty line. The unofficial income… yeah.

Comment by Montana
2018-04-08 16:22:47

Hasn’t HUD been sending poors to the burbs with section 8 vouchers?

Comment by oxide
2018-04-09 05:44:15

I’ve read stories about it, but I haven’t seen it, not that I know of. I guess there are some renters “of color” sprinkled into rental houses, but it’s hard to identify who is who.

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-04-08 21:47:42

During the last bubble a large Hispanic family bought a house three doors down from my mother, at the absolute peak. They had at least 5 or 6 cars, and it was a cul-de-sac which made the parking situation even worse. They ended up losing the house to foreclosure sometime around 2010.

The house next door to my mother soon walked away after that, as they had bought at the peak, too. It was a younger couple but the husband was a major a-hole. A 3rd house went into foreclosure at roughly the same juncture. So, 3 out of 8 houses on the cul-de-sac went into foreclosure, and all were purchased at the peak. A 4th which was also purchased at the peak held on, and they’re still there to this day.

Comment by rms
2018-04-09 07:34:31

“So, 3 out of 8 houses on the cul-de-sac went into foreclosure, and all were purchased at the peak. A 4th which was also purchased at the peak held on, and they’re still there to this day.”

Good thing the bank didn’t let those 3 foreclosures go at auction for 50% off, or the remaining 5 would be up schitt creek too.

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Comment by Anonymous
2018-04-08 18:33:37

“139 percent in Las Vegas’s”

For sure. Other than Summerlin and Henderson, this whole metro area is full of poorish-looking people, obviously poor people, and homeless people.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2018-04-09 13:57:30

Well, not all of Henderson. There’s Hendertucky.

 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-04-08 09:23:15

The world’s hottest shopping city is becoming a ghost town:

“If you want to see the future of storefront retailing, walk nine blocks along Broadway from 57th to 48th Street and count the stores.

The total number comes to precisely one — a tiny shop to buy drones.

That’s right: On a nine-block stretch of what’s arguably the world’s most famous avenue, steps south of the bustling Time Warner Center and the planned new Nordstrom department store, lies a shopping wasteland.

The same crisis blights the rest of Manhattan. The people invested in storefront retailing — real-estate developers, landlords and retail companies themselves — tell us not to worry. It’s a “transitional” situation that will right itself over time. Authoritative-sounding surveys by real-estate and retail companies claim that Manhattan’s overall vacancy is only just 10 percent.

But they are all wrong. Bricks-and-mortar retail is shrinking so swiftly and on such a wide scale, it’s going to require big changes in how we plan our new buildings and our cities — although nobody wants to admit it.”

https://nypost.com/2018/04/07/the-worlds-hottest-shopping-city-is-becoming-a-ghost-town/

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-04-08 10:15:16

It’s the price, stupid. If rents came down massively the spaces would fill. Ben posted the same sort of article about San Francisco. There was all of this vacant space, but one storefront was renting to a guy who sells t-shirts on a month to month deal at 25% of the so-called “going rate.” The problem is, the “going rate” is pure fantasy because it is not supported by economic fundamentals.

We have an absolutely outrageous “everything bubble” in this country right now. Just yesterday I decided to sell off my LP collection. I don’t even own a turntable anymore and I just got sick of moving them around as I organize. When I took them into the record store the buyer was busy going through another collection and he asked the man if he was moving, because in his words “everybody is selling their house right now.” People around here (greater Seattle) are trying to cash out and leave. Nobody wants any more of this high priced nonsense. The problem with that of course is that everywhere is stupidly priced, so there’s really nowhere to go.

The traffic yesterday was as bad as I’ve ever seen it on a Saturday. I went to buy some fasteners at a truck and trailer supply place and there wasn’t even any parking available. The employees were running around and looking ragged. Yet, Janet Yellen is warning that the Fed risks allowing the eCONomy to “run hot.” NEWSFLASH: It’s ALREADY white hot.

Comment by azdude
2018-04-08 10:33:06

its home equity money.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-04-08 11:40:48

The problem with that of course is that everywhere is stupidly priced, so there’s really nowhere to go.

If it’s reasonably priced then there are no jobs.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-04-08 12:09:27

Housing isn’t historically priced irrespective of jobs.

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-04-08 12:14:33

And even those areas are no longer reasonably priced. Old logging towns around here are sporting $650,000 price tags for a 100 year old house on 2.5 acres. Median household income is $42,000.

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Comment by azdude
2018-04-08 16:16:22

logging towns in cali are now tourist towns selling trinkets.

 
 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2018-04-08 15:27:20

It’s the price, stupid.

Yeah, I saw the article and couldn’t believe they blamed it all on Amazon.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 09:24:50

‘more than 44 per cent of mortgage holders were cash flow negative…‘We estimate that for new units in development that were pre-sold over the past year and are tentatively scheduled for completion in 2021, in order for carrying costs to be covered with a 20 per cent down payment, rent would need to rise by 17 per cent over the next four years if there was no change in mortgage rates’

‘If interest rates did rise by one percentage point, rents would need to increase by an average of about seven per cent a year’

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-04-08 09:41:54

“Nearly half of all investors who bought condominiums completed in the Toronto area last year aren’t making enough rent to cover their holding costs, despite chalking up exceptional gains on the value of their properties, a new study finds.”

Note: The most optomistic pukes are the ones who end up paying the highest price. If these most-optomistic pukes are the stupidest of the pukes then the highest-paid price will reflect this stupidity.

“No less than 44 per cent of investors who took possession of new units in 2017 were in negative cash flow.”

Stupidity reigns supreme.

“Though 45 per cent of those investors were short by less than $500 per month, another 20 per cent were short between $500 and $1,000 per month.”

And now for the punch line …

“And 34.5 per cent were in the hole for more than $1,000 per month.”

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

These pukes are hosed for now. Hmmmmmm … let’s see what the future holds for them …

“Roughly 60,000 new units are currently under construction in the GTA and 20,000 new units are expected to be completed annually between now and 2021. ‘We know now that many of them are in negative cash flow, but they also made very nice money on their investment ’said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets Inc.”

“… but they also made very nice money on their investment.”

😁 See? Even Chief Economists have a sense of humor.

“‘The question is will they begin to sell?’”

The question should be: CAN they begin to sell.

It is interesting what price rises do for demand in hot markets and it is VERY interesting what declining prices tend to do for demand after a hot market grows cold.

Stay tuned, the fun is just beginning.

😁

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-04-08 09:42:57

What Americans pay in state income taxes, ranked from highest to lowest:

“When it comes to state income tax, the amount you pay varies depending on where you live. Seven US states have no state income tax — Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming. New Hampshire and Tennessee don’t have a state income tax either, but they do tax interest and dividends at 5% and 6%.

The rest of the states either have a flat income tax — meaning everyone, regardless of how much they earn, pays the same percentage of their income to the government — or a progressive income tax, which means the tax rate is determined by income.

Among the 41 states that tax income, North Dakota has the lowest maximum rate at 2.9%. California is the only state with a double-digit tax rate for the highest earners, topping out at 13.3%.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/state-income-tax-rate-rankings-by-state-2018-2

Comment by davidd
2018-04-08 19:54:25

Yes the highest rate is 13.3% but that’s for the top earners. I just filed taxes and my net income after deductions was $199k, a state tax rate of 5.63%. That, and those of us under Prop 13, places us no worse than many other States. Much better than Con, NJ, NY.

Isn’t all doom and gloom.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 20:29:44

‘Isn’t all doom and gloom’

April 6, 2018

“While Gladstone’s rock-bottom housing market has meant sellers have had to take significant losses, it hasn’t been all doom and gloom for those on the other side of the equation. Electrical engineer Rachael Parker and her partner Lee MacBeath have been looking to buy their family home over the last seven months. Ms Parker said the current state of the market means they can take their time in finding the house which best suits their needs as a family, without worrying about rising prices or increasing rents.”

“The couple spend time looking for houses every second day and have been to two auctions - one at which they were the only bidders - but they remain confident they will not have to pay more than what they have budgeted.”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10394

 
Comment by rms
2018-04-08 20:50:04

“…net income after deductions was $199k…”

Are you in banking or technology?

Comment by davidd
2018-04-08 20:56:41

retired

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Comment by davidd
2018-04-08 21:04:07

retired after saving for my retirement for 42 years. Not the biggest earner all those years, but knowing that I wanted to be comfortable in my later years.

 
Comment by davidd
2018-04-08 21:04:07

retired after saving for my retirement for 42 years. Not the biggest earner all those years, but knowing that I wanted to be comfortable in my later years.

 
Comment by Billy Bathgate
2018-04-08 21:19:19

So good you had to say it twice!

 
Comment by rms
2018-04-08 22:31:47

My best engineering year “after taxes” was roughly $65k, but that includes our slow frozen winters. My hat is off to you!

 
 
 
Comment by Bellinghouse
2018-04-09 06:50:24

Your marginal CA tax rate would be 9.30% for both single and married at that income — 5.63% must be your average rate. So for every extra dollar you made, 9.3% of it went to the Franchise Tax Board.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-09 07:11:31

The picture is much worse if you add in the 22% (or so) federal tax rate, the 15.3% FICA contribution, and hefty local sales taxes on everything you buy, plus property tax if you own a shack. Those various tax margins at all levels of government really add up in California.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 09:52:47

From the Our Windsor piece (which is a re-print from the Toronto Star):

‘But there is a wild card that no one seems to mention. The world is in a state of chaos not seen for decades. This is no time to gamble. In idle moments, I try to calculate what having an idiot with a filthy temper in the White House, madly threatening war whether trade or military, has done to the notion of economic stability.’

‘My savings have dropped, built up again, and dropped further on his random remarks. Remember the look on Donald Trump’s face when he sat in the driver’s seat of a great big truck making vrrrmmm-vrrrmmm noises? This man will have a war before he leaves, we know that.’

‘The Toronto housing market is not stable. Nothing is. I would enter into no contracts for the next two years at least. I would not move. I scarcely travel now. I lurk at home, storing canned goods. All bets are off.’

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-04-08 10:26:26

“I try to calculate what having an idiot with a filthy temper in the White House, madly threatening war whether trade or military, has done to the notion of economic stability.”

Aww, poor snowflake.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 10:31:50

‘I scarcely travel now. I lurk at home, storing canned goods’

Jeebus…

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-04-08 10:50:35

Creepy…

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 11:07:06

I don’t know what the point is. Describe yourself acting crazy to draw attention to the issue?

‘there is a wild card that no one seems to mention’

Unless you turn on a TV, when that’s all you’ll hear.

‘This man will have a war before he leaves, we know that’

Uh, how many wars were ongoing prior to the election? I read the other day there is an active slave trade in Libya. Remember how casually the US turned a no-fly zone into a full on attack? Libya was no paradise but that was a regime change of choice, and now it’s a failed state with no end in sight. Where’s all the hand-wringing about that, or Syria?

 
Comment by toby
2018-04-09 08:11:10

believe libya had one of the highest standards of living on the african continent prior to the “war” we initiated…..

 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-08 11:40:57

Paranoic…

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Comment by Anonymous
2018-04-08 18:40:00

At least he has a safe place!

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Comment by oxide
2018-04-09 05:51:16

“I scarcely travel now. I lurk at home, storing canned goods.”

Which makes no sense. If this guy is a real prepper, then Trump should be his dream President. Lower taxes, keeping out foreigners, and nationalistic trade wars.

On the other hand, if this guy embraces all the things that Trump is against, then why isn’t he traveling blithely around Europe, soaking in all the “cultural enrichment” from the many immigrants there?

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Comment by rms
2018-04-08 14:40:29

“My savings have dropped, built up again, and dropped further on his random remarks.”

You’re not saving… likely out for the fast buck!

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 18:09:41

‘Investigators at the Harris County Precinct One Constable’s Office on Wednesday filed a disorderly conduct charge against West University Place Councilwoman Kellye Burke, after accusations that she berated a group of teenage girls over a Trump T-shirt.’

‘The girls said they were in line at Tiny’s Milk and Cookies in West U on Saturday, waiting to buy cookies for younger girls at their nearby church.’

“A tall, short-haired blond woman came up to them and screamed, ‘Grab em by the (expletive) girls!’” the father of one of the girls said. He did not want to be identified, fearing retaliation against his daughter.’

‘The girls initially tried to laugh it off, the father said. “Then, she yells it again!” the father said. “At that point the girls were getting kind of scared, and then the woman starts, you know, going, ‘MAGA! MAGA! MAGA!’ while shaking her fist.”

‘One of the girls was wearing a shirt that read, “Trump: Make America Great Again,” the father said. West U police referred the case to Harris County Precinct One Constable’s office, which filed a class C misdemeanor charge against Burke.’

https://www.click2houston.com/news/west-u-councilwoman-accused-of-yelling-obscenities-over-teen-wearing-trump-shirt

 
 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-08 10:16:46

Are you hiding your HODLings under the mattress until the bear market ends?

Few places for advisers — or clients — to hide in this stock correction
International bonds and various alternative investments offer little solace
Apr 4, 2018
By John Waggoner

If you’re looking to escape this correction, you’ve got relatively few places to hide.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index has fallen nearly 10% since its all-time high on Jan. 26. You can choose your causes — the threat of a trade war with China, worries about rising interest rates or simply an overpriced market — but the pain felt by your clients is real.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 712 points as of 3 p.m. Friday, after President Donald J. Trump ordered his team to consider additional tariffs on Chinese imports, prompting an aggressive response from China that it would counter protectionism “to the end, and at any cost.” The tensions overshadowed the latest U.S. jobs report, which showed hiring cooled by more than forecast in March.

For advisers, finding a place of safety — or opportunity — has been problematic, in large part because most advisers haven’t been alive long enough to see similar problems.

“It’s been a long, long time since a major trade war. The last one was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930, which rang the death knell of the economic expansion and ushered in the Great Depression,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for U.S. equity at CFRA.

And while the U.S. has seen Federal Reserve rate hikes, the last major Fed campaign to raise rates was from 2004 through 2006, when the central bank pushed rates from 1% to 5.25% in a series of 17 hikes. So far in this cycle, the Fed has nudged rates up six times.

Bonds, the traditional panacea in a bear market, have been of limited use, in part because interest rates have risen this year. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), the nation’s largest bond ETF, has fallen 1.69% in 2018 and 0.78% since the start of the market correction, according to Morningstar Inc.

Comment by azdude
2018-04-08 10:21:23

stocks are a meal ticket for corporate execs.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-08 14:36:40

Investing #​MarketMoves
Apr 6, 2018 @ 02:43 PM
Weekly Charts Warn That U.S. Equity Averages Are Beginning A Bear Market Decline
Intelligent Investing
Ideas from Forbes Investor Team
Richard Henry Suttmeier, Contributor
U.S. equity averages are projected to end the first week of April forecasting a bear market for stocks
(AP Photo/Jin Lee)

The weekly charts for all five major U.S. equity averages are projected to end the first week of April forecasting a bear market for stocks.

A negative weekly chart shows the average below its five-week modified moving averages with their 12×3x3 weekly slow stochastic readings declining below 80.00 on a scale of 00.00 to 100.00. This appears highly likely to occur at the close of Friday, April 6.

The factors at play this week:
- A trade war is building as President Trump raises potential tariffs on Chinese goods to $150 billion.
- The employment report for March was weaker than expected as nonfarm payrolls rose by just 103,000.
- Fed Chief Jerome Powell confirmed that Federal Reserve remains on the path of gradual rate hikes.

My main concern that the drag on economy will increase as the unwinding of the Fed balance sheet accelerates.

The bulls say that first quarter earnings will prevent a bear market, but I say good news is priced in and that guidance on the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will be guarded given the impact of the tariff issues.

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-08 14:42:36

It seems like a lot of bears are coming out of their cryogenic hibernation these days.

S&P 500 Could Still Test 2009 Lows
Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale
Photo: Micha Theiner for Barron’s
By Vito J. Racanelli
April 5, 2018 3:43 p.m. ET

Look up “permabear” in the dictionary and you might just find a picture of Albert Edwards. Société Générale’s global strategist is undeterred by a nine-year old bull market and argues that a new financial Ice Age will take hold that more central-bank quantitative easing will be unable to stop. After the huge credit boom that has supported stock market gains, Western financial assets will experience a downturn similar to that felt in Japan beginning in the late 1980s. In Edwards’ scenario, U.S. Treasuries will eventually sport negative yields, the stock market will plunge below the previous lows of 2009, and corporate debt prices will fall. The result will be a recession. Given the recent volatility in world stock markets, we thought it might be a good time to chat with the 56-year-old strategist and get his recommendations on how to play the next big chill.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-08 16:07:46

“Western financial assets will experience a downturn similar to that felt in Japan beginning in the late 1980s.”

Having myself bought the dip in Japanese stocks in the early 1990s, only to lose all hope and dump my HODLings in disgust a decade hence, I can verify that this prospect is plausible.

Comment by MWR
2018-04-08 17:58:37

Prof. Bear:

I did the exact same thing with Japanese stocks. Now,, 27 years later I am finally up a buck or 2.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-08 15:31:46

No pain, no gain.

Why stocks could fall nearly 40% over the coming 18 months
By Ryan Vlastelica
Published: Apr 6, 2018 5:04 p.m. ET
Considering the potential bottom in three types of market decline

The U.S. stock market has seen extreme volatility over the past two months, as investors grapple with the prospect of a trade war, potential regulation for large-capitalization internet companies, and changing monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

No doubt, many investors are wondering how bad things could get, and how far the market could reasonably fall. According to one analyst, the level where the S&P 500 (SPX, -2.19%) could bottom depends on what kind of selloff Wall Street sees. But in any of three potential paths, more pain can be expected ahead.

Comment by azdude
2018-04-08 16:39:56

capitulate and buy! dont fight the fed!

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-08 17:22:47

Wouldn’t it be smarter to buy after the 40% capitulation those who are fighting the Fed’s Great Quantitative Easing Unwind are about to experience?

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-04-08 16:49:10

“Why stocks could fall nearly 40% over the coming 18 months”

The problem for stockholders is that stocks, unlike real estate, are liquid, and they could fall 40% in only a few months time. It doesn’t take long for POOF to happen.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-08 19:45:52

Right. For instance, it dropped off by 50% from late September 2008 through March 2009, including 777.68 points off the Dow on September 29, 2008, which kicked off the subsequent collapse.

Also noteworthy: It took a Fed bailout, namely the onset of QE1, to stop the stock market correction in its tracks.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2018-04-08 20:07:23

Also noteworthy: It took a Fed bailout, namely the onset of QE1, to stop the stock market correction in its tracks.

Yes it did. Otherwise it wasn’t finished yet. And the housing correction was aborted by the same action after hardly even getting started in most places. All that potential energy that should have been expended that’s been hanging over our heads for a decade instead.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2018-04-08 21:15:03

“All that potential energy that should have been expended that’s been hanging over our heads for a decade instead.”

Right.

And this, in turn, is why financial markets are basically FUBAR, though nobody on high is admitting it.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-08 16:38:48

FINANCIAL TIMES
Gavyn Davies
New global tracking models show uptick in world inflation
Higher than expected US inflation is bigger threat than global trade war fears

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-04-08 10:46:32

Dallas, TX 75287 Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY On Plummeting Demand For Crude

https://www.zillow.com/dallas-tx-75287/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

Comment by MGSpiffy
2018-04-08 13:52:00

Psst. Try Houston next time you mention crude.

Energy, and Oil Specifically hasn’t been as significant a part of the Dallas economy for decade due to diversification since the bust 30 years ago.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2018-04-08 14:21:29

After J.R. Ewing was shot, all the oilmen in Dallas moved to Houston. You can google it.

Comment by In Santa Clara
2018-04-09 07:43:47

Kidding aside, a friend in Houston has told me that Houston is far more dependent on the oil biz than Dallas.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-04-08 14:37:35

Incorrect. Dallas/FW is still an oil driven economy and will be long after we’re gone.

Comment by azdude
2018-04-08 16:14:43

riverboat GAMBler

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-04-08 17:47:53

Housing DumpsterFire…..

Rancho Cordova, CA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Sacramento Area Economy Slows

https://www.zillow.com/rancho-cordova-ca/home-values

https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by MWR
2018-04-08 11:32:07

Medicine Hat
“The City is looking at major decreases in three neighbourhoods, slashing land prices of up to 40 percent in some cases. The largest proposed cuts would be in Ranchlands, with four properties being considered for price adjustments. Three of the four lots would see reductions above 37 percent, including a one-acre parcel currently listed at $768,000 potentially dropping to $462,000.

”WHAT IS GOING ON! Medicine hat has a population of $46K and is 184 Miles from Calgary.
There is nothing surrounding Medicine but empty land (and I do mean nothing) on all sides for 100’s of miles. The land should be valued at closer to $500 per acre.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-04-08 11:39:07

And the city would still be squeaking out a profit! One acre for 462K?

Comment by azdude
2018-04-08 13:07:05

have u looked at any sedona real estate lately?

I think all this madness started after the 87 stock market crash when greenspan stepped in.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-09 07:05:19

Medicine Hat ain’t Sedona…lol!

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Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-04-08 16:52:13

“Three of the four lots would see reductions above 37 percent, including a one-acre parcel currently listed at $768,000 potentially dropping to $462,000.”

LMFAO. $768,000 an acre in Medicine Hat? Holy smokes!

 
 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-04-08 15:11:16

I have been expecting said disaster for some time now…

So much for Mr. House Happy. All all of our Bubble Goobers going to say they knew it was a bubble all along?

Comment by azdude
2018-04-08 16:41:33

how has it worked out for u fighting the fed?

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-04-08 18:09:02

I didn’t fight the Fed. I went around them.

 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by Anonymous
2018-04-08 18:49:34

Maybe he’ll have to console himself by organizing more anti-gun marches by US teenagers.

Is #neveragain still trending in social media? Or have the kids already forgotten about it?

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-04-08 17:15:02

Donald Trump debates Marco Rubio and John Kasich and Ted Cruz on March 10, 2016:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5TvjO9Ljec

Do you get it now> Are you listening? Are you paying attention?

2018: where is ISIS now? They’re all dead…

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-08 19:53:23

“According to independent March figures produced by SnapStats Publishing Company, the average condo price in West Vancouver dropped 33 per cent in the past two months from $1.492 million to $938,000.”

A 33% decline over two months occurs at an annualized rate of (0.67^6-1)*100% = -91%.

Ouch!

 
Comment by Josh
2018-04-08 23:30:28

I was bored today so I took my wife to a few open houses for a good laugh. Encinitas, Carlsbad, Carmel Valley, and Chula Vista (all San Diego suburbs). Every single house was so overpriced it was ridiculous. But the positive thing was the desperation on the part of the realtors. It was like breaking up with a girlfriend trying to get away lol. One place hired an actress to be Cinderella (full get up like it was a Halloween party) to entertain potential children who showed up with their parents. And each neighborhood we went to was LITTERED with open house signs. Chula Vista has over a dozen communities under construction, and even some of the already sold units are listed for resale.

We’re past the peak, ladies and gentlemen. The crash is absolutely under way.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-09 06:34:22

That’s cool. And to add a data point, I recently drove through a pricey area of Del Mar, where the landscape was dotted with For Sale signs. By contrast, there are far fewer yard signs in RB, where we live, 15 miles to the east. It almost seems like the local used home sellers in our area are colluding to avoid the appearance of a fire sale on used homes.

 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-09 06:42:31

Just in case China actually does have a secret plan to dump U.S. Treasurys, here is a word to the wise:
1) The initial effect would likely be a big spike in yields and drop in price.
2) Once the dust settles after the initial selloff could be an excellent opportunity to buy the dip.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-09 06:45:25

I’m not sure how secret this plan is, given U.S. media speculation about it earlier this year.

Financial Times
US-China trade dispute
China elites seek to de-escalate trade tension
Government advisers dismiss reports of secret plan to sell off US Treasury bills
4 hours ago

Comment by Professor Bear
2018-04-09 18:00:16

This has to be one of the most openly and frequently discussed “secrets” in the modern history of finance.

China’s holdings of U.S. Treasurys slip to six-month low of $1.168 trillion
Published: Mar 15, 2018 4:40 p.m. ET
By Sunny Oh

China’s holdings of U.S. government bonds fell by $16.7 billion in January to $1.168 trillion, the lowest since July 2017, according to the widely watched Treasury International Capital Report. The report comes amid concerns China may slow its purchases of Treasurys, and even sell them altogether, in retaliation against further tariffs imposed by the White House. But the dip in its holdings marks a steady downtrend from August.

 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-09 06:47:25

PS If not already obvious, Treasurys are a much better place to park money when a trade war is brewing than stocks.

 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-04-09 07:02:56

Last night I ran our 2017 taxes as though the new tax law was already in effect last year, and they went up, thanks to the elimination of personal exemptions, which hits families like ours with lots of dependent near-adult children hard. This was somewhat of a surprise, as financial news articles about the new tax law I read earlier this year hyped up the big drop in taxes middle class families like ours would realize (Fake News, it turns out).

If you have no dependents, things may turn out better than they did for us, as the loss of the personal exemption will only increase taxable income by $8100 for a married couple filing jointly. Albeit if you are in the 22% tax bracket under the new law, like us, $8100 in extra income would cost you $1782 in additional taxes owed.

Good luck with the new tax law!

 
Comment by azdude
2018-04-09 07:30:04

Is all this trade war talk and doom and gloom another attempt to get another rally out of shorty?

Suck them in and then rinse them out? This has been a consistent trend for years.

Conjure up some fake news and then circulate bad news to get people to go short. then flush them out with positive news that the fake news isnt going to happen.

 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-04-09 07:34:02

wow, iron ore price prediction down 10% in 2019?
wheres the perk yo?

 
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