‘Less A Sellers Market Every Month That Goes By’: CA
A look at California housing bubble. “The median price of a San Bernardino County home increased 27.7 percent to $355,000 in January, up from $278,000 in January 2005, DataQuick reported Wednesday. The median price last month was down from a record $361,000 set in December.”
“‘The buying group for each housing category has dropped in a year,” said Bill Velto, broker in Upland. ‘Buyers have a lot more choices. The standing inventory is close to 60 to 70 days,’ Velto said.”
“Gary Teeters, broker in Yucaipa, said his office is seeing fewer multiple offers on properties and more price reductions. Mike Duncan, brokerin Twentynine Palms, said ‘investors are not up here as much.’ Jason Bennecke, in Highland, said that ‘for every month that goes by, it’s less of a sellers’ market.’”
“Sticker shock. That’s what Mentone resident Melinda Wallace felt after visiting several open houses over the weekend. ‘A few years ago, these same houses were selling for a lot less,’ said Wallace. ‘To be honest, I just don’t think they are worth it.’”
“Experts say condo sales, especially ones converted from former rental units, were a major factor in pulling Orange County’s median home price down $39,000 last month. The number of homes sold also fell to the lowest level in nine years, the real estate research firm said. Experts say buyers finally balked at sky-high prices demanded by single-family house sellers.”
“The past three months were the slowest in nearly five years, with 9,923 homes sold. And January’s 2,594 sales figure was the smallest since February 1997 Michael and Holly Hall felt that slowdown after they put their three-bedroom Mission Viejo home on the market in the fall. After nearly three months, they’ve only gotten one offer, from a bargain hunter. On Wednesday, they cut their price by $10,000. ‘This is driving us crazy,’ Holly Hall said.”
“Santa Monica chiropracter Ralph Alvy says the market is definitely slower than two years ago. When Alvy decided to put his home up for sale in January, he was still expecting to get numerous bids. But this time around, it took two weeks before getting even one offer, and that was after reducing his asking price $20,000. ‘I was surprised when we didn’t get multiple offers,’ Alvy said. ”
“Sales of Bay Area homes dropped last month to the lowest level in five years as price increases continued to ease back. (Sales were) down 35.8 percent from 9,347 for December, and down 20.0 percent from 7,509 for January last year, according to DataQuick.”
“A decline from December to January is normal for the season. Last month was the tenth in a row to see a year-over-year sales decline. The January sales count was the lowest for any month since January 2001. The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $607,000 last month. That was down 0.3 percent from December’s $609,000.”
“‘We won’t know for another couple of months if this is a lull in the market or part of a longer-term downturn. The March numbers will tell us much more about what’s going on,’ said Marshall Prentice.”
Yes a decline is normal from December to January and so is 10 months of a YOY sales decline. This only implies a lull in the market. Who are you kidding?
Sounds exactly like a soft landing to me!
To be honest though the last few years have been exceptional years for RE - so a decline from last year doesn’t necessarily really point to a crash - so I pulled the numbers for Jan Sales for San Diego as far back as DQnews has data posted -
06 2763
05 3324
04 3567
03 3468
02 3328
01 2999
00 2956
I’d say the Jan numbers are way worse than the industry are letting on… especially given the inventory build up…
The inventory buildup is the “flip” side of the drop in sales, in more ways than one
From the OC Register article: “If you’re a first-time homebuyer and you want to stay in Orange County, these are amazing deals,” said Nesheiwat, a 24-year-old media planner. “This was a great opportunity.” Nesheiwat bought her new one-bedroom condo as an investment, putting just 1 percent down and taking out an interest-only loan. She’s renting it for $1,200 a month and hopes to resell it at a profit in about a year. “I don’t think the market here is ever going to go tremendously low,” she said.
Jesus, how much does a 24 yr old media planner make? And for the people that think this blog is irrelevant already, just remember there are many people out there like this buying thinking the market will only go up!
Shes running a about $550 negative cash flow per month not including commons charges , insurance, or property taxes. So the unit has to appreciate 3% a year to break even or more than 9% if she hopes to even break even after selling in a year. I don’t see a windfall in her future.
Probably want to include Federal Taxes unless she keeps it longer also.
Assuming they are at an ad agency, media planners make about $40K a year absolute max. Until you are a supervisor or above, advertising is one of the most overworked/underpaid fields out there.
I wouldn’t hire that nitwit to clean the toilets.
I would like to thank you for making me spit Dr. Pepper out my nose. Seriously, that hurt.
Gee, that’s what my fiance thought in 1989 when he purchased a condo in Orange County for $148,000. He had a VA no down, sound familiar? Our realtor/friend said “you can’t lose!” That’s when in about 1 year the prices dropped and the condos in the area were selling for no more than $99,000. We had to hold on to it for 10 years and rent it out for a loss before we could sell it for a small profit of $40,000. So in most in the RE industry’s eyes, we must have been an exception to the “Realtor golden rules” that RE never goes down, you can’t lose money in California, etc. Don’t believe everything you hear from your agent, even if they are friends!
a friend of mine is trying to sell a 1400 sq ft home in the hollywood hills for close to950k.he bought in 9 years ago for 325k.1 month on the market no offers,when he listed his home i told him the market has really changed and he better price it accordingly,he then told me the hollywood hills are different…hollywood types in the biz w/ plenty of bucks all want to live near the studios and will pay a premium for it…NOT, no one will overpay in this market.this home is the perfect example of the slowdown that has hit the high end desireable areas in one of the richest cities in the usa….the party has just started…..
i love it…our area is “special” or “unique” or “desirable”…doesn’t matter…it’s all goin’ down
Funny thing is that some of the most desirable areas (i.e. Beverly Hills) get hit the hardest in downturns.
DITTO for Santa Barbara.
Crackerboxes that sold for $350k 5 or 6 yrs ago… are priced at $1million more. “Celebrities” and “Stars” tend to have the kind of BANK that allows them to pass on these dumps.
Point being, just because it’s a nice area doesnt mean it isnt prone to a much harder crash.
Speculators pushed the prices up big time, but the music has stopped on the MUSICAL CHAIRS kiddo investor game.
Now, it’s just a matter of finding out who all the losers are…
There were a lot of pretty foreclosures in them parts the last time. Amazing how many of them hollywood types couldn’t afford paint and a little landscaping
Read about U.S. Foreclosure Inventory Rises for Second Consecutive Month.
“RISMEDIA, Feb. 17 — According to data released by Foreclosure.com, 95,073 foreclosed residential properties were available for sale in the United States during January — an increase of 3.5 percent from December. The total number of new foreclosures listed for sale in January — 23,982 — dipped by half a percentage point from the prior month.”
Washington Mutual just announced another 2,500 lay-offs and the closing of several mortgage centers, 600 of those jobs being cut from Southern california. This is after they just announced 1,000 lay-offs from their Southern California call center. 1,600 canned real estate related employees in one week from one company. That alone says a lot about the RE industry in So Cal.
Has anyone checked out the lastest inventory in some of the Inland Empire cities? Fontana is up to 1,100 active listings, Rancho Cucamonga (right next door) is at 686. That’s almost 1,800 listings within a few square mile radius. Wher are all the buyers going to come from?
maybe they’ll move in from boron?
Washington Mutual is cutting 100 jobs in Stockton, which is over 10% of their workforce in that city. White Collar Job Lose Commences; Declining Market in Stockton
Lander
Sacramento Land(ing) Blog
Can anyone tell me what a 3 br home in a decent area would rent for in the San Fran area? I’m contemplating a move there.
In San Jose you can get a 3 bedroom from $1900-2750 depending on the area. Cheaper areas available if you don’t mind a lot of Mariachi music and sirens
On the SF peninsula near me the average 3/2 would rent for around $2200 to $2800 depending on city, location, amenities and condition. That’s for a pretty ho hum house, 1200 to 1800sq ft. A really nice place would top $3000
Cities: Burlingame, San Mateo, Belmont, San Carlos.
The same houses sell for $850k to $1.25M
East Bay (Oakland, Berkeley, Albany, etc) is similar in price to San Jose. SF proper varies 2500 - 3000 closer to downtown, 1800 - 2500 out in the Avenues.
deb, deb, deb,
talk to me kiddo about the sfv! do you have some good research sites?
I worked with Jason Bennecke. He quite his government engineering job to make more money in RE. Try ” less a sellers market every DAY that goes by”. I moved out of the IE because my wife and I couldn’t find a home for under 350K. Now Redlands has 300+ homes for sell. What a change in 5 months. We rent a house in San Luis Obispo now. Surfing every weekend.
I live in an unincorporated part of Riverside (borderline FOntucky) in the IE. A home went up for sale on my block for about 390k. Reduced from 410. Still not 350 and under but they are there. You just have to do some serious searching. Built in 1990, 2 stories, 1600sq ft.
After reading this Blog I think the IE will return to what it was - cheap affordable homes. Although it won’t be like the OC. Lots of heat and smog in the summers. And traffic. Can you say “unchecked developement”. The freeways are horrific. That place is a rat race. The OC people made their way out there because nobody could afford to buy near the coast. Now, nobody can leave because they can’t sell the house. Or walk away bankrupt. Isn’t that what most people did back in the early 90’s? I’m a native CAian but man CA RE is so crazy now. I am so sick of everyone talking about how much money they have made. And how smart they are. You haven’t made anything unless your willing to sell your home people. And now it looks like it is going to be very difficult. The greed that caused people to wait until the very last second amazes me.
OT but quite relevant……
Posted at IndexCalls.com:
Just by way of example, here’s a typical homebubbler cash flow statement:
QUOTE
PERIOD ENDING 30-Nov-05
Net Income 842,421
Operating Activities,
Depreciation 23,447
Adjustments To Net Income 129,048
Changes In Accounts Receivables 77,670
Changes In Liabilities 560,232
Changes In Inventories (1,660,229)
Changes In Other Operating Activities (25,504)
Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities (52,915)
Investing Activities,
Capital Expenditures (23,997)
Investments 43,656
Other Cashflows from Investing Activities (117,633)
Total Cash Flows From Investing Activities (97,974)
Financing Activities,
Dividends Paid (61,577)
Sale Purchase of Stock (101,116)
Net Borrowings 233,376
Total Cash Flows From Financing Activities 70,683
Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes - - -
Change In Cash and Cash Equivalents ($80,206)
Note that net income was $842M but that they spent twice that on new inventory (land mainly, I would assume) leaving a less than exciting negative $52M from operating activities.
This is KBH which jst announced a drop off in home sales.
On the balance sheet they are carrying an accumulated inventory position of over $6 billlLLLlion dollars.
A mere 10% hit marked-to-market on that portfolio would take a nasty bite out of retained earnings.
With $2.2 billion in current accounts payable and $2.4B in debt we see that this is a cash hungry business that, apparently, doesn’t actually generate all that much from operations when you run around mindlessly buying up more and more inventory.
I could see these cats going belly up in the next few years .
Not meaning to pick on KBH.
Many, many more in the exact same position.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cf?s=KBH&annual
Hey, we all know; “This area/place/school dist/zip code/state/whatever is different.”
I have a serious question; No, really, no funny business, are there any places that really are different? It’s happened in the past, there are always exceptions to any rule. The market is always changing. I see several examples of places that are ahead or behind the curve but that is absolutely what is expected.
That said, can we please stop clogging the threads with “it’s different here” rhetorical comments?
I think the towns that lead the housing bubble are different. For example, DC has had a large run up but there is a steady job based that doesn’t exist in other markets. I still expect housing prices to come down in DC but not like S. FL and some of the super hot markets. I believe that cities like DC that lead the housing boom had some fundamentals behind them but eventually turned speculative and then spilled over into second tier markets.
I think some areas will always be at a premium. IE, San Francisco will always be more expensive than North Dakota, but in a down market, everything suffers.
Yes rental properties near better universities. Ivy league schools have many more applicants than slot available. Thus if one kid can’t afford tuition, room and board, they just go down the list until somebody can. Students who are renting never want to live farther than walking distance that dramatically limits the market size. Most are paying with somebody else’s money thus they aren’t the most discriminating customers. They also believe that they will be earning better than average salaries in the future. Thus debt is not a big worry. During recessions the number of applicants to grad school (at least law and business school) tend to rise as layoffs increase. I could go on but you probably get my point.
are there any places that really are different?
Yes, I live in one. Canberra, capital of Australia, about 300K population. It is truly different here because the Government owns all the land. When areas are offered for subdivision, there is a reserve price and if the bids don’t meet the reserve, so be it.
As a consequence the bottom end doesn’t ever fall more than about 10% below the cost of the raw land + subdivision costs + cost to build a house, and this firm floor has predictable follow-on effects.
Canberra therefore has periods of stagnation rather than real busts. Given the size of the 1997-2003 run-up (about 150%), I am anticipating a long period this time, which is why I sold in 2004.
All places are truly different… but subject to the same general rules.
Just because you have a university, or a special tech-focus, or the world’s biggest pool of spit doesn’t mean gravity doesn’t apply.
You are all subject to the numbers. The past is your future.
Yes, we are certainly subject to gravity. We just have a higher floor.
“Trends in January and February are notoriously bad at predicting upcoming activity,” said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president, in a prepared statement. “Is the market taking a breather? Or is it starting to tumble? It’s impossible to say. There’s nothing really ominous in the numbers, but we won’t know for another couple of months.”
THAT’S RIGHT… TRY and MILK IT for a few more months. You have been doing it since SEPT/OCT. when the numbers no longer were in your favor.
Keep moving your FLOCK of SHEOPLE into the wishful land of yesteryear’s profits…
First time poster here.
Just a story to tell here. I saw a relative of mine that I have not seen for a while. She mentioned that they are moving to Temecula, CA, buying a house for $400K+ and keeping their house in San Diego and getting it rented. This couple maybe making at most $75K a year.
So I asked her to determine what financing she’s getting. She could not tell me what they are getting, she says her friend is taking care of that. And last comment she said was, “what ever is the lowest payment that we can qualify for”, “besides, no one lives in their homes for 30 years, and home prices goes up anyway.”
Looks like we have another I/O, ARM, Neg Mortgage victim here.
From the OC Register article:
This girl gets $1200 in rent for her specuvestment, and used an I/O. When the loan begins to amortize after the I/O period ends, here is the math she’s facing:
If she refi’s $292k at 6.0% fixed, her payment is $1750 a month, then she also still has to pay property taxes of just over $300 a month if you assume 1.25% of $295k, and then HOAs of some unknown amount. That puts her underwater to the tune of $850 per month, plus whatever HOAs are. God forbid she doesn’t have a month or two without a renter. None of this makes any sense to me anymore. There must be something I’m missing.
OT
First time poster here.
———————————————————————————————-
Just a story to tell here. I saw a relative of mine that I have not seen for a while. She mentioned that they are moving to Temecula, CA, buying a house for $400K+ and keeping their house in San Diego and getting it rented. This couple maybe making at most $75K a year.
So I asked her to determine what financing she’s getting. She could not tell me what they are getting, she says her friend is taking care of that. And last comment she said was, “what ever is the lowest payment that we can qualify for”, “besides, no one lives in their homes for 30 years, and home prices goes up anyway.”
Looks like we have another I/O, ARM, Neg Mortgage victim here.
I’m convinced what is missing is math abilities on her part plus hopeless optimism and a huge lack of experience. What her lender is missing is any shred of ethics that they can’t see she can’t afford this loan.
First time poster here.
———————————————————————————————-
Just a story to tell here. I saw a relative of mine that I have not seen for a while. She mentioned that they are moving to Temecula, CA, buying a house for $400K+ and keeping their house in San Diego and getting it rented. This couple maybe making at most $75K a year.
So I asked her to determine what financing she’s getting. She could not tell me what they are getting, she says her friend is taking care of that. And last comment she said was, “what ever is the lowest payment that we can qualify for”, “besides, no one lives in their homes for 30 years, and home prices goes up anyway.”
Looks like we have another I/O, ARM, Neg Mortgage victim here.
I feel that people who use this simpleminded arguement are purposley avoiding having to know something that they don’t want to hear. So what if you don’t live there 30 years, what has that got to do with the fact you are ignorant about your own finances and being taken advantage of by the loan industry ? Pleading ignorance at your bankruptcy hearing isn’t going to cut it.
Just signed a new lease on a different home here in Vegas. I do miss owning a home, but will sleep much better the next year. I feel like the balloon here in vegas has been seeping air and is about to burst.
By the way I figured out the home we are renting from an investor from California who bought 6 homes here less than a year ago is negative cash flow to him of over 800 a month….ouch!
He has been trying to rent it for almost 6 months and has come down over 500 on his rental asking price.
@OCMax,
There IS something you’re missing: the Real Estate Boom.
You better catch a condo quick –before they all float away!
The reviews are more informative and entertaining than that book could ever be. I hope someone makes that guy eat his words in public some day.
I POST LA TIMES headlines from 1988- 1990.
See the similarity to the current situation
See May -OCt 1989. Current situation mirrors that very well.
1988: People start to question the boom. Realtors
assure us the boom will continue. Houses aren’t like
stocks afterall.
‘88 Outlook Bright for U. S. Real Estate
Dick Turpin; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Jan 10, 1988; pg. 1
County’s Median Resale Price of Homes Reaches
$179,999, Costliest in California
JOHN O’DELL; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Mar 23, 1988; pg. 5
Unlike Stocks, Home Prices Rarely Collapse
JAMES FLANIGAN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Aug 28, 1988; pg. 1
Southland Inventory of Unsold New Homes Lowest in
Decade
DAVID M. KINCHEN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Sep 11, 1988; pg. 10
J. M. Peters Reports Skyrocketing Sales for Second
Quarter
MICHAEL FLAGG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Sep 14, 1988; pg. 5
Limit Issue Driving Up Home Prices
Dick Turpin; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Sep 18, 1988; pg. 1
Hot Housing Sales Belie Doom Forecast
Ryon, Ruth; Los Angeles Times; Sep 25, 1988; Vol.
107, Iss. 297; 8; pg. 1
1989: Prices are very expensive; affordability an
issue. Sales slow and prices drop. Mention of risky
loan types.
Housing Prices in State Climb 3% in February
Furlong, Tom; Los Angeles Times; Mar 29, 1989;
Vol. 108, Iss. 116; 4; pg. 1
Stock of Unsold Homes Drops Dramatically
DAVID M. KINCHEN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Apr 2, 1989; pg. 9
How First-Time Buyers CAn Get Their Piece of the
Dream
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; May 21, 1989;
pg. VIII1
State’s Home Sales Drop 14% Median Price Tops
$200,000 for First Time
Crouch, Gregory; Los Angeles Times; May 25, 1989;
pg. IV1
Sales of Existing Homes in State Fall During May
Furlong, Tom; Los Angeles Times; Jun 23, 1989;
Vol. 108, Iss. 202; 4; pg. 1
Orange County Home Sales Drop by 22% in May
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Jun 23, 1989; pg. 1
Realtors Tackle New Topic: How to Handle Slow
Housing Market
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Oct 1, 1989;
pg. VIII1
Prices Drop, Sales Slow in State’s Housing Market
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Nov 29, 1989; pg. 1
Housing Affordability Rises Outside L.A., Orange
County
Kristof, Kathy M.; Los Angeles Times; Dec 06,
1989; Vol. 109, Iss. 3; D; pg. 1
Survey Cites Four California Banks With Possibly
Risky Realty Loans
JAMES BATES; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Dec 30, 1989; pg. 1
1990: Prices take a serious plunge. One article claims
that housing booms are a bad thing and we should hope
prices stay low. Increasing mortgage rates are blamed
for the bust. The word “recession” is mentioned. Gloom
and doom.
Home Sales in Southland Plunge in ‘89
Samuels, Alisa; Los Angeles Times; Feb 8, 1990;
pg. D2
The Number of Homes for Sale Sets a Record Real
Estate: San Diego becomes buyer’s market, with 4,000
existing homes listed in January.
GREG JOHNSON; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Feb 13, 1990; pg. 2.A
Pray That the Housing Boom Stays Dead
Jones, Robert A; Los Angeles Times; Apr 24, 1990;
pg. A3
Climbing Mortgage Rates Hurt Existing Home Sales
Samuels, Alisa; Los Angeles Times; Apr 26, 1990;
Vol. 109, Iss. 144; D; pg. 3
California Is Nearing the Edge of Recession, UCLA
Forecast Warns
Anderson, Harry; Los Angeles Times; Jun 29, 1990;
Vol. 109, Iss. 208; D; pg. 1
California Real Estate Market Continues to Cool
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Jul 26, 1990; pg. 1
Home Sales in July at Slowest Pace in 4 1/2 Years
Furlong, Tom; Los Angeles Times; Aug 28, 1990;
Vol. 109, Iss. 268; D; pg. 2
Realtors Hear Gloomy Price, Sales Forecasts
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Oct 7, 1990;
pg. K1
O.C. Home Resales, Prices Fall Sharply Housing:
Realtors group attributes slump in county and state
figures to fears of recession.
MICHAEL FLAGG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Oct 26, 1990; pg. 5
Housing Slump in California Seen Worsening
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997
Fulltext); Nov 21, 1990; pg. 1
Interesting that May 89 also experienced dropping sales with still-rising prices. Looks like it took about 6 months from there to media concensus that prices were dropping …
Yes.
And anyone out there WHO IS CONFUSED as to the timing around then - the United States went into a recession AFTER THE BI-COASTAL HOUSING BUBBLE OF THE LATE 80’s (the started seeing serious headwinds on the East Coast in ‘89 and in California in 1990).
Again: the mild recession of ‘90-’91 occurred after housing slowed, not beforehand.
The San Jose Mercury News (www.mercurynews.com) has a story up about the latest DataQuick numbers for anyone who is interested. Of course it ends with a positive comment from a realtor. Eh-hmm.
I am also looking… is this realtor suggest that the price-to-eyeball ratio is justified?
We know what happen last time when this ratio was used.
Yeah, sort of like when you pass an accident scene - everyone has to slow down to look. Is that what he means?
Yeah, sort of like when you pass an accident scene - everyone has to slow down to look. Is that what he means?
I LOVE it! I’m sure that’s what it is.
Caution…dumb question ahead: How can I get a quote in the blue box?
BayQT~
Use the “b-quote” button.
Thanks, Peter P.
BTW, lots of people are also “looking”. Many are worried neighbors.
Tampaesq, are you still on this blog?? Haven’t seen your name in a while.
This is all good news, but income property here in LA/VC still doesn’t come anywhere close to “pencilling”. GRM’s are still astronomical. Cap rates are a joke. Still holding onto my cash…
Anybody have comments on the San Francisco market? The media is saying that there has been no surge in listings and prices by and large have not decreased.
But - I just picked up the latest copy of “Real Estate Times” - there are so many listings in this issue that they had to bind it like a book. It’s about half an inch thick!.
I had an epithany this morning here in the OC! I picked up my OC Register and saw the new medium price of $ 582,000 (a decline for the first time in 8 months from $ 600 k) prominently displayed in 2″ numbers across the front page. Just when I thought the OC Register would never show a RE price decline.
Anyway, this is a big deal here in the OC! I know of a number of people who claimed this could not happen here! 6 to 8 months ago the RE experts were claiming a price decline was impossible in OC.
Of course, the article itself went to great pains to rationalize away the cause of the decline. Condo conversions caused it……January is normally a slow month anyway……the “experts’ expect a rebound in the Spring……etc. etc. etc.
Re: Washington Mutual - “This is after they just announced 1,000 lay-offs from their Southern California call center. ”
I heard that they are moving the call center to, get this, “Austin, Texas” !
did anyone else see this?
Video clip of a newscast on the impending CRASH
I
I did see this piece on the channel 9 news last night.
What is totally flabbergasting is that the CAR economist
interview noted that they have “been expecting this slowdownfor the
last few years” huh? For the last few years the real estate
complex has been telling us that prices can “only go up”, etc.
I would like to make a personal challenge to any CAR / NAR
member that may read this blog to point to ONE documented instance of ANY CAR / NAR member
as going on record as having said that “we expect
the market to slow” during the last few years.
For the person moving to SF, rent for awhile. Pick the city you are going to live in and then find a place to live. Have cash ready to rescue the thousand of FBers that you will find there. A liveable house is at least $700K anywhere near the Bay on the east and higher on the peninsula. I couldn’t wait to get out of the place. Great pllace to visit, glad I am now in ABQ. I spent 12 years in the Bay area, and it is way too expensive, traffic sucks, and I could go on and on. Best of luck.