A Glut Of Luxury Buildings Hitting The Market
A report from the Real Deal. “It’s a question other lenders are asking more and more as they find themselves being beat by either Fannie or Freddie. The reason the two loan agencies are outperforming institutional lenders is thanks to government insurance that allows them to charge lower rates than others, explains Real Capital Analytics’ Jim Costello in The Financial Times. Since the crash, in addition to providing traditional loans for homeowner’s mortgages, both agencies have been increasingly financing rental housing, taking on the risk for loans underwritten by commercial mortgage companies. Last year alone, they financed about 1.6 million rental units in the U.S. (In the fall, The Real Deal reported that Freddie was dominating multifamily lending in the New York area.)”
“Fannie and Freddie say it was just the hand they got dealt. ‘It’s not because we’re trying to do more high end or more expensive properties,’ Fannie’s multifamily chief credit officer Manuel Menendez told the Times.”
The Arizona Daily Star. “Within two years, Tucson could face a shortage of more than 1,700 apartments pushing rents to levels not seen before in this market. In 2017, only 318 new units were brought online and 796 units are now under construction. The majority of activity in the multifamily market is among investors buying older properties and fixing them up and increasing rents when leases are renewed.”
“‘The vast majority of everything being built is luxury lifestyle apartments because there’s demand for it,’ said Mike Chapman, a multifamily specialist with NAI Horizon. ‘Where I see the real rub is the lack of workforce rentals. It’s going to be an issue.’”
The Charlotte Observer in North Carolina. “With thousands of new luxury apartments flooding the uptown market in Charlotte, a San Francisco-based startup has a possible solution: Turn some of them into hotel rooms. Lyric has leased a whole floor of one of the two SkyHouse Charlotte apartment towers. The rooms make up only a small percentage of SkyHouse’s 672 studio, one- and two-bedroom units.”
“Lyric will have plenty of opportunities to find apartments in Charlotte, which has a glut of luxury buildings hitting the market in uptown. According to figures released in March, uptown has the highest apartment vacancy rate in Charlotte, at 21.8 percent. That translates into more than 1,100 vacant apartments, according to tracking service Real Data.”
“That’s largely a byproduct of the uptown market’s rapid growth. The number of apartments uptown has more than doubled since 2015, to more than 5,000, and that expansion will continue as developers chase sky-high rents. The number of apartments uptown is expected to reach more than 6,700 in the next few years.”
From Willamette Week in Oregon. “Rents for apartments in newly constructed buildings declined last year—marking a real change, at least temporarily, in the upward trajectory of housing costs. ‘Properties built in 2014 or later were reducing their asking rents across all unit sizes last year—particularly among newly constructed studio apartments, where asking rents decreased up to 6 percent over 2016 prices,’ according to the Portland Housing Bureau’s 2017 State of Housing in Portland report.”
“The data on rent comes as construction continues to boom: 9,639 was the number of new units of housing produced in 2015 and 2016– that’s more than the five-year period of 2009-2013.”
The Real Deal on California. “The troubled investment firm Woodbridge Group of Companies offloaded a 52-unit apartment complex in the northern San Fernando Valley earlier this month. Van Nuys-based Adil A Barakat Family Trust, an investor at least nine other multifamily properties around Los Angeles and the Inland Empire, paid $21.5 million for Granada Pointe complex at 11541 Blucher Avenue, which was built in 2011. The sale includes a $10.5 million mortgage with Seattle’s Homestreet bank.”
“The Sherman Oaks-based firm is embroiled in crisis. The Real Deal reported in November that the Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating the firm for fraud. CEO Robert Shapiro resigned a few weeks later, and the SEC then sued him for a billion-dollar Ponzi scheme that netted him millions of dollars, much of which he spent on luxury items.”
“Word spread in March that the firm had solicited some of the L.A.’s top brokers to sell its residential portfolio, which includes some of the premier homes in Los Angeles county. Woodbridge was asking unusually large sums for many of the properties, in what some real estate professionals have described as an effort to present a rosier portrait of the portfolio to investors.”
The Lohud Journal in New York. “Rental apartment buildings have been sprouting up throughout the region in recent years, and some people in the community are wondering whether there are too many of them for the market to absorb. Multi-family development projects have been a favorite among real estate investors and developers in the post-recession era. The cycle of expansion has recently reached its peak nationwide, but considering the strong economy and continuing demand for rental apartments, the decline would be gradual, said Jeanette Rice, who heads multifamily research for CBRE, a major commercial real estate and investment firm.”
“Just shy of 1,000 new apartments were completed and added to the south Westchester market inventory in 2017. The number is expected to jump to about 1,700 in 2018, said Kimberly Byrum, principal of Meyers Research, who also gave a presentation. The 2018 number is twice as much as her estimate of the area’s annual absorption, about 850 to 900 units.”
“A symposium attendee thought Byrum’s estimate of the new apartments coming on the market in 2018 seemed low, remarking that she was aware of developers ‘worrying that maybe too much coming online already, and they shouldn’t be planning projects.’ Plans for thousands of newly created apartment units have been proposed or already approved in Westchester communities such as New Rochelle, White Plains, and Yonkers.”
“Landlords of existing apartments will have to offer concessions to attract tenants to compete against new apartments, Byrum said. But in a bigger picture, the market will do just fine, she said. ‘I think a lot of things you are hearing within the market is just the concern of the current owners in the market whose buildings are 97 percent occupied,’ Byrum said. ‘It’s (the occupancy rate) going to come down to 93 to 95 percent.’”
“Rice said she does worry about the excess supply of new apartments in certain cities, such as San Antonio and Austin in Texas, where more than 7,000 units — or more than 4 percent of their existing inventory — were added to the market in 2017 alone. Some pockets of Manhattan may also have too many new units coming on the market at once, she said, and added: ‘Don’t worry about any part of New York outside of Manhattan. We are not building that much.’”
From Broker Pulse on New York. “A special new type of resident has hit New York City: the non-existing resident. Rental apartments across the city have become host to a ghost city where today, 247,977 units sit unoccupied. That’s more than 11 percent of all rental apartments in New York City. These numbers released from the Census Bureau’s Housing and Vacancy Survey shed light on an issue that has been growing significantly over the past three years. The number of vacant rentals has grown by 65,406 apartments since 2014, a 35 percent spike in size.”
The Buff State Record in New York. “As a native New Yorker, going home is something I always look forward to. However, every time I go home, I always see more apartments being built that all have the same banner wrapped around them. It usually says something like, ‘Luxury apartments, coming soon!’ The word luxury being used in this case has come to really mean unaffordable.”
“Neighborhoods in Queens, Brooklyn and Manhattan are flooded with these kinds of developments. The rest of the sign might read as, ‘One Bedroom starting at $2,350, Studio starting at $2,050.’ After seeing this, people slowly realize the true luxury is being able to afford one of those apartments. Luxury has changed to really become a means of disguising something that really isn’t a luxury. It has become an illusion because almost all apartment buildings that go up usually have the big banner saying that these are luxury apartments. Because of this idea of luxury, people cannot afford to live there.”
‘Rice said she does worry about the excess supply of new apartments in certain cities, such as San Antonio and Austin in Texas, where more than 7,000 units — or more than 4 percent of their existing inventory — were added to the market in 2017 alone. Some pockets of Manhattan may also have too many new units coming on the market at once, she said, and added: ‘Don’t worry about any part of New York outside of Manhattan. We are not building that much.’
These are the idiots being paid to tell developers what they want to hear: you’re going to get rich for doing nothing! And yeah Fannie and Freddie, you are going down, in large part because of this luxury apartment binge you went on. Just whose idea was this anyway?
“Fannie and Freddie say it was just the hand they got dealt.”
What kind of BS is that? The GSEs are the ones dealing the cards.
“They play a critically important role in the underserved, affordable segment,” said New York University economist Sam Chandan to the Times.
The government-backed hillbillies justify their existence serving the poor.
Are they dealing cards? Or is it drugs?
“And yeah Fannie and Freddie, you are going down, in large part because of this luxury apartment binge you went on. Just whose idea was this anyway?”
The moneyed special interests and their DC lobbyists, that’s who. They are ripping the US taxpayers off in grand fashion, with our so-called “leaders” in their pockets. This is nothing short of massive corruption. They have actually commandeered our government.
Back during the S&L crisis, bankers went to prison. Now, they’re taking the country for a ride for a second time in a row, with zero accountability for their fraudulent schemes. This is despicable on an unspeakable level.
Those who live by empty promises, buying all the time things they cannot actually pay for, do not vote against corruption.
“And yeah Fannie and Freddie, you are going down, in large part because of this luxury apartment binge you went on.”
I’m looking forward to seeing this play out.
Got popcorn?
This looks like a press release:
‘Preferred Bank (NASDAQ:PFBC), (the”Bank”) an independent commercial bank, today reported that after substantial efforts to resolve a loan relationship, it had foreclosed on two (2) luxury 5-unit apartment properties in New York. The properties were new upon origination and the loans were originated in June of 2017 and July of 2017, respectively and are located on the Upper Eastside of Manahattan, below are the details: In addition to those, the Bank may file foreclosure actions on two (2) luxury single family residential properties underlying loans made to the same individual as the managing member of separate LLC’s. These loans were originated in March of 2017.’
‘Preferred Bank is one of the larger independent commercial banks in California. The bank is chartered by the State of California, and its deposits are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, or FDIC, to the maximum extent permitted by law. The Company conducts its banking business from its main office in Los Angeles, California, and through eleven full-service branch banking offices in the California cities of Alhambra, Century City, City of Industry, Torrance, Arcadia, Irvine, Diamond Bar, Pico Rivera, Tarzana and San Francisco (2), and one office in Flushing New York.’
‘Preferred Bank offers a broad range of deposit and loan products and services to both commercial and consumer customers. The bank provides personalized deposit services as well as real estate finance, commercial loans and trade finance to small and mid-sized businesses, entrepreneurs, real estate developers, professionals and high net worth individuals. Although originally founded as a Chinese-American Bank, Preferred Bank now derives most of its customers from the diversified mainstream market but does continue to benefit from the significant migration to California of ethnic Chinese from China and other areas of East Asia.’
So they folded in 13 months.
Another eb-5 visa scam.
Five things to remember about the Canadian housing market and bubble:
1. Nearly all loans are adjustable (average about three years)
2. Nearly all mortgages are recourse loans
3. Banks already have a built in TARP
4. There is no MID or deductions of property taxes
5. Canadian household debt is much higher than even insane American household debt.
+++++
“We Know It’s Going To Be Painful”: Half Of Existing Canadian Mortgages Are Up For Renewal In 2018
ZeroHEdge - 05/01/2018 - 08:45
While it had taken banks some time to push up their mortgage rates, they were finally “catching up” and as Bloomberg reported, just in the past few days Toronto-Dominion Bank - Canada’s second largest lender - lifted its posted rate for five-year fixed mortgages by a whopping 45 bps to 5.59% as government bond yields touched their highest levels since 2011 this week.
And while Toronto Dominion was not alone in raising key borrowing rates last week - it was joined by all of Canada’s biggest banks - just as the busy season for residential real estate gets underway, a more troubling development is taking place in the mortgage market, which according to Bloomberg is set for a particularly heavy year of renewals in an environment where debt-servicing costs are already soaring at the fastest pace in a decade.
“The economy has never been as levered as it currently is, and the economy is far more interest sensitive than it has been in the past, to a degree that we don’t have certainty over how each interest rate hike is going to affect Canadian consumers,” Frances Donald, senior economist at Manulife Asset Management, said by phone from Toronto. “All we know is it’s going to be painful, but how painful isn’t quite clear.”
As Bloomberg notes, the heavy household debt burden is perhaps the key reason the central bank has been reluctant to raise borrowing costs further, after hiking interest rates three times between July and January. Given the nation’s debt load - as of February, households had a record C$2.1 trillion ($1.6 trillion) of mortgage and non-mortgage debt - Poloz estimates the economy is 50% more sensitive to rate hikes than at any time in the past.
And here’s why Canada will no longer be able to avoid the troubling reality of rising rates: the country is entering a period in which no less than 47% of existing mortgages need to be refinanced this year versus 25% to 35% typically, according to Ian Pollick, head of North American rates strategy at CIBC in Toronto.
Worse, the refis will take place smack in the biggest mortgage interest increase in over a decade, just as the country’s biggest banks are raising key mortgage rates. To be sure, as we reported last week, Toronto-Dominion kicked it off Thursday, hoisting its five-year fixed mortgage rate 45 basis points to 5.59 percent. Royal Bank followed with its own hikes Friday.
Which goes to show that you don’t need long term fixed rate mortgages or tax breaks to have a bubble.
What is especially worrisome is that the average Canuck is already up to his eyeballs in debt, and is only able to service it because interest rates were at record lows.
I can’t help but wonder if central banks will lose their resolve to deflate the many bubbles around the world once the foreclosure Tsunami begins.
“Five things to remember about the Canadian housing market and bubble:”
Despite the threat of recourse, item #2, the plebs continue signing the dotted line. What’s wrong with people at this stage of human evolution?
It’s called Fear of Missing Out.
Assuming they have the same wage stagnation we have down here, it will be painful indeed!
Do you really believe wages will triple or quadruple to save debtors who paid a 400% premium for a rapidly depreciating asset like a house?
The banksters who deal out the financial crack cocaine that enables these insane speculative bubbles always, always start to issue pious warnings about unsustainable debt loads in the terminal phase of the bubble.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-canada-chief-issues-household-debt-warning-2018-05-01
Vienna, VA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As NoVa/DC Population Decline Accelerates
https://www.movoto.com/vienna-va/market-trends/
‘SARASOTA, FL (WWSB) - City living with a beautiful bayside view is every renters dream, right? The Rosemary District is considered the fastest growing area in the city. It’s a location numerous developers are now taking advantage of, with new luxury apartments popping up on every corner. But the beautiful buildings have a lot of people questioning, who can afford these?’
“We have about 10 percent of our units here for workforce type housing where rent starts around $1,100 a month for our studio units,” said Michael Sundo, Chief Operating Officer with Longboat Enterprises, CitySide Development Team.’
‘Staff at CitySide said they have no target tenant, but house a wide variety of people, from young professionals to retirees. That $1,100 for a studio fills up fast and the next available apartment is a one bedroom listed on their site for $1,800 a month.’
‘Staff said it is affordable to live here, so there’s an eclectic group of tenants who do. “[There's] a strong bands of the 25 to 35 [age] group and then also in the higher bands around 55-years-old,” said Sundo.’
‘The building boom started with this group about five years ago. The owner of CitySide apartments worked with the city to rezone the entire Rosemary District so he could build the 228-unit complex. The city agreed to higher the density of these developments, tripling the number of units per acre allowed from 25 to 75.’
‘Ideally, this meant more affordable housing for the working force, the young professionals. Then two more developers got wind and started building the condos on either side of the Mandeville Beer Garden too. One is nearly finished, the Elan Rosemary, but this one is also a bit more expensive. Starting rent for a one bedroom is listed online at $1,515 per month.’
‘ABC7 asked the Elan Rosemary for their input to include. Via email, questions like, ‘are these units affordable for say, someone 24-years-old?’ But the response from their Director of Corporate of Communications was that they were, “going to pass on the opportunity.”
‘Efforts for a similar interview with Arcos, the other new apartments under construction on Central Avenue, were not responded by deadline. But a quick look on their website shows the first available studio is $1,550.’
‘This is way out of range for 62 percent of young professionals, ages 21 to 40, according to a study conducted by the Sarasota Chamber of Commerce back in 2015. It shows that 62 percent of respondents needed a 1-2 bedroom apartment under $1,000 a month.’
‘Cover said the building boom in the Rosemary District is just beginning. “The Rosemary District has really grown tremendously over the last couple of years and there’s a lot to do. A lot of housing, restaurants, places to work. We want to see that energy continue and that growth continue.”
To all the progressives who celebrate “May Day”
+++++
Commentary: Victims of Communism Day 2018
Reason | May 1, 2018 | by Ilya Somin
May Day is a fitting time to commemorate the tens of millions of victims of this murderous ideology.
Today is May Day. Since 2007, I have advocated using this date as an international Victims of Communism Day. I outlined the rationale for this proposal (which was not my original idea) in my very first post on the subject:
May Day began as a holiday for socialists and labor union activists, not just communists. But over time, the date was taken over by the Soviet Union and other communist regimes and used as a propaganda tool to prop up their [authority]. I suggest that we instead use it as a day to commemorate those regimes’ millions of victims. The authoritative Black Book of Communism estimates the total at 80 to 100 million dead, greater than that caused by all other twentieth century tyrannies combined. We appropriately have a Holocaust Memorial Day. It is equally appropriate to commemorate the victims of the twentieth century’s other great totalitarian tyranny. And May Day is the most fitting day to do so….
While it is Communist in origin, most people around the globe call May Day “labor day”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Workers%27_Day
I strongly suspect that any attempts to demonize May 1 outside of North America will fall on deaf ears.
Those who are in formerly Soviet occupied areas likely have not forgotten. A friend of mine (now long departed) escaped across the border in the middle of the night on May Day. The guards were all drunk.
May Day is still observed in former communist block nations. Or do you expect them to switch labor day to the first Monday in September?
I sure don’t expect them to do anything of the sort. May day is ancient. My Druid ancestors danced around the May Pole to celebrate spring. The commies co-opted the date to celebrate “workers”. That business I think started in Chicago.
My friend Bill though, he celebrated it as Independence Day.
My barbarian ancestors went to towns to loot, pillage, and burn them down. May, June, July, whatever.
They apparently know how to celebrate it in Germany.
https://i.redd.it/a7szquvlq8v01.jpg
I’m jealous!
I thought it meant the plane’s goin’ down!!
In French it does.
Citizen 2banana! As we march shoulder to shoulder on the shining path to our glorious collectivist future, our DNC vanguard holding high the banner of socialism, we must strive harder to exemplify the ideals embodied by such comrades as Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and Hugo Chavez. The day draws near when our all-wise, omniscient Masters of the Universe will import enough millions of entitlement voters to carry every election. Then, when the bitter clingers can no long hide behind archaic “rights” in an obsolete Constitution written by the patriarchal oppressors who founded this country, we can finally move forward with disarming the populace…for the children. Then and only then can we implement our long-cherished dream of a redistribution of the wealth that would do Mao proud.
Forward!
Forward!
You should have mentioned “concrete steps” somewhere in there.
And the famous “this is not who we are…”
Citizen! The Masters of the Universe who craft the narratives to be disseminated in our MSM and by the comrades of the NEA and the cultural Marxists at our institutions of higher learning do not appreciate such mockery of our efforts! Clearly you are a relic from the era before our NEA comrades purged the last of the competent and conscientious educators from our public school indoctrination centers! But your insouciance has been duly noted, along with that of numerous other posters in here who mock and ridicule The Narrative. The FEMA camp awaits!
Forward!
‘Hunt Mortgage Group has provided a $6.4 million Fannie Mae DUS loan to refinance Park Beverly, a 144-unit apartment community in Dallas, The owner, Cresta Properties, had previously taken a $2.6 million acquisition loan in November 2014, when it purchased the asset from Houstate Investments, according to Yardi Matrix.’
‘The property, built in 1963, includes a mix of studio, one- and two-bedroom units, ranging in size from 400 to 950 square feet. On-site amenities include laundry facilities, a barbecue area and 132 resident parking spaces. The owner began renovation work on the community in 2014, updating the landscape, unit interiors and parking areas.’
“The borrower is … a seasoned commercial real estate and multifamily investor that is working on another transaction with us at the same time,” said Ted Nasca, managing director at Hunt Mortgage Group, in a prepared statement. “(The owner) acquired the property in late 2014 and executed a $2.6 million renovation campaign, significantly re-tenanting Park Beverly and achieving post-renovation stabilization in September 2017.”
That’s an interesting property. I drive by it occasionally as it is a shortcut from NW Hwy to Greenville Ave. ‘Seedy’ would be a good way to describe it. It was the place to be in the 80’s but has gone downhill alot since then. There are highrise apartments across Greenville that rent for $4k-$5k / month. I’m surprised they didn’t tear it down, I guess when you can double your money in 4 years, why bother?
I just got this email:
‘ESI Ventures (ESI), a diversified commercial real estate investment firm that acquires, develops and executes value-add and adaptive reuse projects, recently sold Madison Grove Apartments in Phoenix, Arizona for over $21 million. The Class A multifamily complex is a fully-renovated property located at 7045 N. 7th Street, which has 171 units and features a resort-style pool, state-of-the-art fitness center, fire pits, pet park and outdoor BBQ / patio area with TVs, heaters and misting system. ESI purchased Madison Grove in 2009 for $5,300,000 and sold it in 2018 for $21,450,000.’
‘During its ownership of Madison Grove, ESI made substantial improvements to the property including renovation of all interiors and exteriors. Renovations included: new air conditioning, hardwood floors, stainless steel kitchen appliances, window coverings, energy efficient windows, high-end Pental quartz countertops, paint, a wall mounted, cable-ready TV in every unit, carport parking, laundry services, storage, controlled/gated access, and more.’
“We saw value in renovating this property, as the multifamily market in Phoenix has been gaining traction since 2017,” says Brandon Wolsic, Executive Vice President of ESI. “The property improvements executed were designed to serve the millennial audience that seeks to rent a clean, modern unit with on-site amenities in a walkable environment.”
‘The area surrounding Madison Grove is very vibrant and boasts many amenities including boutique shopping, outdoor space / parks, and contemporary eateries, especially along 7th Street which is now known as ‘restaurant row’.
‘While ESI was not looking to sell, they received a strong off-market offer and sold the property to Rincon Partners.’
‘ESI Ventures is a diversified commercial real estate investment firm that acquires, develops and leads the industry in value add and adaptive reuse projects. The firm has built an impressive portfolio of lifestyle properties among a myriad of asset classes, with a strong focus on rehabilitating and reimagining existing structures into new spaces.’
That’s what I want to do in Phoenix, sit around in the heat watching TV.
Apparently, Arizonans can’t think of anything they like to do in the summer:
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/San-Diego-Summer-Can-Only-Mean-Invasion-of-the-2748457.php
All that amenitie$ blah,blah,blah … Knot even x1 outdoor pizza oven, they’re really $lacken verses Bend, OR
Translation:
We can’t lose! Any non-performing loans are now the taxpayer’s problem!
Mel Watt, the obama legacy that keeps giving…
++++
“It’s a question other lenders are asking more and more as they find themselves being beat by either Fannie or Freddie. The reason the two loan agencies are outperforming institutional lenders is thanks to government insurance that allows them to charge lower rates than others,
Miromar Lakes, FL Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As Florida Mortgage Meltdown Heats Up
https://www.movoto.com/miromar-lakes-fl/market-trends/
But…but..shortages!
Hey - what is the average occupancy of an apartment? 2.5 people? 3?
That is housing for 750,000 folks!
NYC has a population of about 8.5 million. That is a huge percentage of housing stock sitting empty.
++++
“A special new type of resident has hit New York City: the non-existing resident. Rental apartments across the city have become host to a ghost city where today, 247,977 units sit unoccupied. That’s more than 11 percent of all rental apartments in New York City.
“the authority cannot let homes prices ever go down or there will be another wave of folks walking figuring they can be a boomerang buyer.” SHP
What?
FB will get Woked?
US banks will never take a loss on their collateral behind loans on shacks.
😁
“The Troubled Assets Relief Program had indisputably helped prevent a collapse of the entire financial system.”
– obama, Dec. 2009
“We’ve got shovel-ready projects all across the country. And governors and mayors are pleading to fund it. The minute we can get those investments to the state level, jobs are going to be created.”
– obama, Dec. 2008
TARP was the biggest swindle against the American people ever perpetrated by the banksters and their congressional puppets. Yet We the People sanctioned it with our votes for the crony capitalist status quo.
Correction - second biggest swindle, behind 9/11. Or maybe third, behind going off the gold standard, or fourth, behind creation of the federal reserve. You get the idea.
Agree. The 1913 founding of the Federal Reserve and its counterfeiting and racketeering on behalf of its oligarch cohorts pretty much dwarfs every other scam against the 99%.
Rancho Cordova, CA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As Sacramento County Economy Stumbles
https://www.zillow.com/rancho-cordova-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
‘Within two years, Tucson could face a shortage of more than 1,700 apartments pushing rents to levels not seen before in this market. In 2017, only 318 new units were brought online and 796 units are now under construction. The majority of activity in the multifamily market is among investors buying older properties and fixing them up and increasing rents when leases are renewed.’
‘The vast majority of everything being built is luxury lifestyle apartments’
Tucson has a net loss of population going on right now.
Let’s see
1) It’s hot as Hades most of the year
2) Weak job market
3) No longer a low cost of living locale
4) Has serious gang and crime problems
Gee, I wonder why people are leaving
Also, the drought in the southwest continues. I saw the Colorado River during our road trip. It’s level looked low, especially for this time of the year, when the snow pack melts. I’m wondering if water rationing is in the cards for the desert southwest.
az is getting cali transplants and canadians bought up 1/2 the homes.
So add Tucson to the list of cities that suck…per HBB posters.
Pretty soon thete will be nowhere left. So far off the top of my head…Tucson, Las Vegas, All of Utah, SF, Bend, OR, Chicago, pretty much all of Florida, LA, the South in general, flyover in general. That leaves what Boston and Maine and DC. No wait DC is on the list as well. Maine it is.
‘add Tucson to the list of cities that suck’
I didn’t say that. You are starting to sound like a crank.
I was referring to Colorado’s 4 points of suckness about the city.
‘a wide variety of people, from young professionals to retirees…Staff said it is affordable to live here, so there’s an eclectic group of tenants who do. .[There's] a strong bands of the 25 to 35 [age] group and then also in the higher bands around 55-years-old’
We’ve seen this before: You’ve got the new young rich renter who has no problem spending 70% of take home pay as long as there’s a beer tap around and the rich seniors who could afford to own a shack but want an urban vibe which includes living next to young drunk rich renters.
So, $1800 a month for a 1 bedroom apartment, in Sarasota, where:
The per capita income for the county was $28,326 and females had a median income of $25,721 versus $32,114 for males.
So a 1 bedroom rents for more than the median income. Yeah, that sounds affordable.
It would work for Three’$ company, Janet + Chrissy + Jack … x2 futon$ & $88,000 income$ $ounds plausible!
IIRC, they had a 3 bedroom apartment.
Sarasota has a very prominent wealthy society scene, whose members often are featured in Sarasota Magazine. But it’s not large in terms of numbers. And of course there are snowbirds, and retirees of some means. But there’s no obvious fount of high-paying white-collar or professional jobs, other than healthcare. And the area has the same get-paid-in-sunshine wages that most of Florida does.
Per capita income is total income divided by total population. Not total workers but total population including kids and retirees and homeless people.
Even in SF per capita is only about $45k. It’s really a meaningless number for the purpose of this discussion.
1800 a month for a single professional making 60k a year is reasonable rent. Doesnt mean everyone in Sarasota makes 60k but plenty do. 1800 is 36% of gross pay in a state with no imcome tax. Back in the olden days I lived in Boston. My job at the time paid 55k and MA had a 6% income tax. My apartment was 1600 a month. I had no issues paying the rent. Take away state income tax and the ration were just about the same. And yes I ate, owned a car, etc. That same place today is probably $3k. And it was kinda meh 20 years ago, in a soso nabe. Ii is 20 years older now. So relatively speaking $1800 for a new high end apartment on the water is not outrageous.
It doesn’t always have to be apocalyptic
Incorrect.
Net pay is $32k based on the most recent avg salary data for Sarasota FL of which $1800 or 60% of net pay goes to rent and you think that’s typical historically?
You’ve got rocks in your head.
Lol. Whatever you say. Everyone makes $32k right? You are an amusing dude I’ll give you that.
Rocks,
I didn’t say everyone makes $32k.
Sarasota, FL 34231 Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/sarasota-fl-34231/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
“1800 a month for a single professional making 60k a year is reasonable rent. Doesnt mean everyone in Sarasota makes 60k but plenty do. 1800 is 36% of gross pay…”
Sounds like financial suicide to me. Besides, the professional making 2x average income is probably not in the average apartment.
The last 13 years I kept housing expense below 5% of my gross. Before that when I still had four kids in the house it was below 20%. Now I don’t have to work. Ever. Yeah, I had cars and food too.
1800 a month for a single professional making 60k a year is reasonable rent.
Since when is paying half your take home pay on rent “reasonable”?
$1800 rent is no more founded in reality than the $3600 mortgage with interest, taxes insurance and depreciation for the same structure.
u missed increase in market value
Hello DumpsterFire
North Bethesda, MD Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/north-bethesda-md/market-trends/
$1800 rent is significantly more than my mortgage.
Donk,
Now add on taxes, insurance and depreciation at $3/sq ft/yr.
Home price$ won’t $low down, $tumping the expert$ and $hutting out buyer$
By Andrea Riquier
Published: May 1, 2018
Marketwatch
Home-price gain$ accelerated in March, defying predictions that lofty price$ will eventually return to earth, and raising question$ about how $ustainable such a heated market can be.
($ editing provided buy The Amish.Taoist Times Hwy50)
Portland, OR 97201 Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Housing Correction Advances On West Coast
https://www.zillow.com/portland-or-97201/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
San Francisco has a bad problem with homelessness and drugs:
https://m.sfgate.com/news/article/Tolerant-San-Francisco-fed-up-with-dirty-smelly-12875527.php
SF = First world sh*thole.
but they have all the tech companies there working miracles.
miracles = spying
Don’t confuse cause and effect. SF has a bad problem with liberalism. Homelessness and drugs are just part and parcel of what happens when you promote a culture of pathological victimization and celebrating irresponsibility and parasitism.
This dude definitely follows the old adage, “Put your money where your mouth is.”
This Billionaire Has Put Half His Net Worth Into Gold
By Tamim Elyan and Manus Cranny
April 30, 2018, 9:07 PM PDT
Egypt’s Sawiris has put half his entire net worth into gold
He’s been waiting 10 years for North Korea stakes to pay off
Some big investors see warning signs ahead for markets but are holding their positions. Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris is taking action: He’s put half of his $5.7 billion net worth into gold.
He said in an interview Monday that he believes gold prices will rally further, reaching $1,800 per ounce from just above $1,300 now, while “overvalued” stock markets crash.
…
Paper gold or physical gold? And yes, it matters.
I wonder if he will comment after the credit bubble collapses on what happens to speculative physical assets in a credit contraction.
I wonder if he will comment after the credit bubble collapses on what happens to speculative physical assets in a credit contraction.
You think people are speculating on gold these days? I’ve definitely not seen any talk of it being the “next big thing”…
Crack shack or $700,000 house?
++++
San Francisco’s cheapest house on the market has a big lot and some interesting history
San Francisco Chronicle | May 1, 2018 | Amy Graff
A humble circa-1900 cottage is the cheapest single-family home on the market in San Francisco right now, and a local historian says it could be a relic from the former Ingleside horse racetrack built in 1895.
The cottage at 459 Ralston St. in Merced Heights sits on a generous 3,332 square-foot-lot and is listed for $649,000 (though most SF homes have been selling over asking price lately).
“It’s the lot that’s the value in this property,” says listing agent Robert Tao of Sequoia Real Estate. “Normally, the lots in the area are 2,500 square feet.”
https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/459-Ralston-St-jockey-house-Ingleside-racetrack-12875075.php
Rents rents rents killing music…..
Monday, April 30, 2018 12:09PM
TIMES SQUARE, Manhattan (WABC) –
In Times Square, the last notes played Sunday night at B.B. King Blues Club.
The music venue closed its doors for the final time, with management citing rising rents.
The B.B. King Blues Club has been in business for 18 years and played host to Aretha Franklin, James Brown and Jay-Z.
Sunday’s final show was blues legend Buddy Guy.
Several fans say they are upset the venue has been forced to shutter its doors.
The club says it is looking for a new location in Manhattan.
http://abc7ny.com/society/iconic-times-square-blues-club-closing-due-to-rising-rents/3407461/
Sometimes I think that the combination of the housing bubble and technology is creating a society without any human connection at all, just an utterly anomic environment where people live alone in places they can’t afford, where all interactions, and reality itself, are mediated by a computer screen.
Funny you say that.
It seems that we get with a power outages or heavy snow storm every year now (or a few times a year).
All the neighbors come out and help everyone out. Great time to meet, catch up and build up some relationships.
You can see why neighborhoods worked “back in the day”
You can see why neighborhoods worked “back in the day”
A elderly friend of a friend had heart disease & developed chest pains during a blizzard in a part of ND 70 miles from Fargo. Roads were all closed, nothing could fly either. The local highway department created an ad hod convoy of snow plows with GPS to plow their way to the hospital in the big city to get him the help he needed. The ambulance followed the plows. He made it.
That is also how things were done “back in the day” and more recently.
If we really only communicated by computer screen, then why live in a place that you can’t afford? You could communicate from Oil City.
Dartmouth, MA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Housing Correction Ravages New England
https://www.zillow.com/dartmouth-ma/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Just in case anyone thought there might be a corner of the world untouched by the hype of the housing bubble, this month’s C Magazine reports on the newest hotspot for LA artists to move:
“On the eastern shore of Salton Sea - a man-made saline lake in the desert caused by an engineering disaster on the Colorado river in 1905. The abandoned and surreal fringe town of Bombay Beach… never fulfilled its promise of becoming the California Riviera. Algae bloom caused by agricultural runoff and overpopulation led the introduced tilapia fish to suffocate; at one time millions washed up on the shores. The sulfurous whiff of decaying flesh on the wind is both the smell of the past and a looming environmental disaster on the horizon.”
“‘This place is apocalyptic. It’s going to be uninhabitable in about 50 years because of the toxic fumes from the dust and the sand… It might be like Chernobyl. People might have to come in hazard masks.”
It’s like getting in on the ground floor of Marfa! The kicker:
“In recent years, artists escaping Los Angeles rents have been buying up shacks here for as little as $20,000.”
Sounds like too much.
Thats insane. And awesome!
Does artist still mean drug addict? I’d wager thats the case with the crew moving out to salton. Nasty area.
From 2015 …
Toxic Dust From a Dying California Lake
An exerpt:
“On October 28, the smog-control agency for Los Angeles and the surrounding areas, the South Coast Air Quality Management District, issued an odor advisory for the intense rotten-egg stench that was permeating the air of southern California’s Coachella Valley. The source: The state’s largest lake, the 350-square-mile Salton Sea, was burping up hydrogen sulfide, a gas created by the decaying organic matter trapped beneath the water. It was the Salton Sea’s fifth odor advisory for October alone; depending on winds, the hydrogen sulfide can be smelled as far as 130 miles away in Los Angeles.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2015/11/the-airborne-toxic-lake-event/414888/
Canadian debt donkeys are going to be a cautionary tale for a generation once housing bubble 2.0 implodes.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-30/jumping-mortgage-rates-further-tighten-debt-vise-for-canadians
Ironically, an integral part of their common mania is that they are superiorly financially responsible.
Just how many aliases do you have on this site?
It’s all an elaborate ruse. Including the black helicopters.
Lil Kim, FB.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/26/buy-lil-kims-nj-mansion-dream-home-at-auction-for-100.html?recirc=taboolainternal
Lil Kim?
I ran across this gem (from 2014) …
“According to a report by TMZ, the legal court documents indicated that Kim has been in debt since 2002, and owed money every year from 2002 until 2009. Kim says she’s working on the situation, but it’s been 12 years, and still little-to-no progress.
Financial Juneteenth lessons from this story (courtesy of Dr Boyce Watkins):
1) One of the biggest frauds perpetrated against the African American community has been the bastardization of hip-hop music, converting it into a lifestyle where artists lie to the public and spread the virus of unhealthy financial habits. Expensive cars, fur coats and popping bottles at the club remains a part of the culture, while behind-the-scenes, most of these artists are not only failing to build wealth, they are also ruining the financial situation for both themselves and their children. After all the music Kim has made over the years, there’s no reason why she should be struggling as a 40-year old woman.
2) Even worse than the bastardization and corporate coopting of hip-hop culture is the infantilization of many hip-hop artists. Many leading artists, after experiencing the joys and riches of the fast life as 18 – 20 year olds, spend the rest of their lives trying to recapture the wealth and fame they once had. You rarely see a former hip-hop star become a doctor, lawyer or accountant after their career starts to flop. Typically, because they’ve indentified themselves as artists, many former superstar rappers spend the remainder of their years trying to regain the glory they experienced as young people. This might also include remaining connected to the trappings of a “hip-hop lifestyle,” including clubbing, drinking, smoking, spending and womanizing. It’s incredibly sad and unattractive when you’re 40 years old, still trying to compete with kids out of high school.
3) For the record, the IRS typically becomes the beast that almost no celebrity can slay, because the debt gets bigger with your income level. So, the frugality required to conquer an IRS debt requires the kind of economic discipline that is not promoted by the lifestyle of mainstream hip-hop artists. So, the IRS is effectively a form of economic quicksand: Once you’re caught, you’ll probably be sucked in for life. We wish Kim the best.”
http://financialjuneteenth.com/flat-broke-lil-kim-owes-126000-to-the-irs-and-even-more-to-her-lawyers/
And they NEVER become engineers….
++++
“You rarely see a former hip-hop star become a doctor, lawyer or accountant after their career starts to flop.”
“It’s incredibly sad and unattractive when you’re 40 years old, still trying to compete with kids out of high school.”
Sometimes I’ll see a late thirties woman acting like a teenager, taking selfies, foodie dating, etc., telling her friends she’s ready to settle-down… ahem, finally settling for that frugal engineer.
“Settling down” means finding a suitably well-off guy who can pay the bills for her galactic sense of entitlement before she takes him for all he’s worth in the divorce.
http://knuckledraggin.com/2018/05/happy-happy-17/
I like this pro-NFL football player turned mathematician:
At age 26, Ravens’ John Urschel retires from NFL to pursue PhD in maths at MIT
Something about playing professional football does not add up anymore for Baltimore Ravens offensive lineman John Urschel.
Just two days after a new study revealed increasing evidence connecting the degenerative brain disease chronic traumatic encephalopathy to the highest levels of the game, the 26-year-old retired.
The Ravens, where Urschel played for three seasons, made the announcement online.
“This morning John Urschel informed me of this decision to retire from football,” Coach John Harbaugh said in a statement. “We respect John and respect his decision. We appreciate his efforts over the past three years and wish him all the best in his future endeavors.”
Urschel, who has not publicly commented on his decision, has a second career lined up. A doctoral candidate in mathematics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Urschel already has nine published or accepted research papers to his name, according to the school’s magazine MIT Technology Review. His specialties include discrete Schrödinger operators, high dimensional data compression, algebraic multigrid and Voronoi diagrams.
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/us-sport/baltimore-ravens-john-urschel-retires-nfl-phd-mit-offensive-lineman-cte-a7864201.html
Usually by that time - male engineers have figured out the:
1. Hot-Crazy Matrix
2. The Alpha fux and Beta Bux Corollary
Most engineers like nice, sweet and smart girls with little drama. And marry them. Looks can be just OK.
And they learn from their friends who got burned on the crazy “hot” drama chicks.
And, as my older divorced engineers friends have told me, if you are a heterosexual male with a decent job, good grooming and in somewhat decent shape - you are already a NINE!
Literally, “hot” older women throwing themselves at them.
Engineers!
And, as my older divorced engineers friends have told me, if you are a heterosexual male with a decent job, good grooming and in somewhat decent shape - you are already a NINE!
Literally, “hot” older women throwing themselves at them.
Engineers!
My fisherman friends like to tell lots of tales about the ones that got away. But I’m sure your engineering friends are totally telling the truth.
There are many other types of things you throw at something just to see what sticks. Not all these things are savory.
Chesapeake Beach, MD Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As Beach and Vacation Property Markets Implode
https://www.movoto.com/chesapeake-beach-md/market-trends/
if prices fall give the bank the collateral back and then buy another house at a lower price as a boomerang buyer.
Banks are so desperate to keep prices up they are digging into the desperate, poor credit, broke folks to give loans to.
They know if prices start to fall people wont buy and the value of their collateral will fall off a cliff.
Buying a house today is the worst financial decision you’ll ever make in your life.
Don’t do it. Just don’t.
I’ll wait and buy them from the FB “victims” at the foreclosure sale. The Fed has already blown its wad with $10 trillion in QE, so the next bust won’t be artificially deferred like the last one was.
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/05/01/update-apartment-rental-bubbles-crashes-in-the-us/
The Fed has already blown its wad with $10 trillion in QE
When you own a printing press there is always more where that came from. The Fed’s refractory period is very short.
How UB?
What would more financially devastating: Buying a house, or tying the knot?
Or is there pretty much no difference (”Suzanne researched it!”)?
“economic busts are proportional to the booms that preceed them.” SHP
“To wit, last year McDonald’s tax rate was 32.8% versus 24.4% this year (after the $0.07 carryover adjustment from Q4); its share count last year was also 3.3% higher (825.2 million shares versus 798.7 million) and the dollar was 5.5% stronger. Accordingly, its reported earnings were just $1.47 per share last year.
On a constant currency, constant tax rate, constant share basis, however, McDonald’s earned $1.79 per share this year and $1.80 last year!
In short, Mickey D’s is the poster boy for the Q1 head fake that is being perpetrated by the sell-side crooks and their handmaidens in the financial press. Nearly all the ballyhooed gain is due to currency, share counts and tax rates.”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/economic-old-age-part-2-mickey-ds-awesome-goose-egg-poster-boy-for-wall-street-delusions/
“In other words, the main street economy has essentially gone nowhere during the last decade and one-half and is heading for even weaker results ahead— given the current staggering debt burden and the deep deficiency of real net investment.
Only if you credit Mickey D’s with earnings growth of 22% during the recent quarter could you possibly conclude that now is the time to buy the dip.”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/economic-old-age-part-2-mickey-ds-awesome-goose-egg-poster-boy-for-wall-street-delusions/
Mr Market sure has been plungy since Janet left the building. Was iPlunge Protection Team disbanded?
Trade war: On or off?