Relief That Reason Has Reasserted Itself
A report from Macleans in Canada. “When Toronto-area home prices began their slide, the market served up painful lessons for buyers and sellers alike — and revealed shady behaviour that helped inflate prices in the first place. John, who asked that his name not be used for reasons that will become obvious, knew he had to make an offer. He figured he could rent it out, and if the payments didn’t cover the mortgage costs, no matter. Back in early 2017, home prices in Toronto were on an unstoppable tear, surging double-digits every month. The house would surely be worth more in no time. The home was on the market for only a few days when John’s offer was accepted. He bid nearly $1.9 million, about $360,000 more than the list price. Then everything fell apart.”
“During the closing period, the Ontario government introduced the Fair Housing Plan, which included a 15 per cent tax on non-resident buyers. The plan released the air from the housing market, and prices took a nosedive. John’s investment property sat on the market for 27 agonizing days before a buyer could be found. The home sold for 25 per cent less than what John had paid just five months earlier, leading to hundreds of thousands of dollars in losses. ‘I was so greedy,’ he says now. ‘I will not play the game like that again.’”
“John’s tale of misfortune isn’t exactly unique. Hundreds of Greater Toronto Area residents were caught when the housing market took an abrupt dive last year after a long run of booming activity. For the first time in a generation, it was possible to lose money in the Toronto real estate market. A detached house in Richmond Hill, Ont., was purchased by a real estate agent and a business partner for $2.1 million in February as an investment property. They sold it again in November for $1.7 million—a 19 per cent loss. Similarly, a would-be real estate investor spent $1 million on another home in Richmond Hill, intending to renovate, according to the agent involved. The purchaser hit financial trouble in a matter of months and had to offload the property. The home eventually sold for 15 per cent less than the previous purchase price.”
“Another house east of the city sold for $75,000 over the asking price at the end of March. The purchasers, who lived in the home, couldn’t find a cheaper mortgage. ‘The monthly payments were just insane, so the only option was to lose a hundred grand and sell the property,’ says Paul Jaypour, the real estate agent who sold the house the second time. The original purchasers took an 18 per cent loss. ‘The worst is still to come,’ he predicts.”
“All Lisa Mastrangelo wanted to do was sell her house. ‘It turned into the biggest nightmare of my life,’ she says. Mastrangelo was going through a divorce, and decided to sell her home in Oshawa, Ont., where she lived with her two teenage daughters, and move to a smaller place. At this point, Mastrangelo was carrying two properties and a bridge loan, and facing a lawsuit and escalating legal fees. ‘I couldn’t even talk about the situation without bawling my eyes out,’ she says. ‘Financially, I’m not ahead,” she says. “We’re only just starting to get back to normal and have a life again.’ Mastrangelo filed a lawsuit against the first buyers and hopes to recover the difference in purchase prices.”
“A falling real estate market can also reveal shady behaviour that helped inflate prices in the first place. Monica Peters, a lawyer in Toronto, cites cases where transactions involve straw buyers or fake names in order to conceal the ultimate purchaser. The real buyer can then speculate on the market with little fear of consequences if the transaction fails. Similarly, pursuing a non-resident buyer in court can be both pricey and onerous. ‘I’ve had cases where this person exists, but they’ve gone back to China,’ Peters says. ‘I can sometimes spend five to 10 thousand dollars trying to track that person down.’”
From Toronto Life. “According to TREB, the number of home sales recorded throughout the Greater Toronto Area this April was 7,792. That’s down from 11,468 sales in April 2017, a 32.1 per cent year-over-year decline. The average price of a home in the GTA was down 12.4 per cent year-over-year, to $804,584. The last time the GTA sold fewer than 8,000 homes in April was 15 years ago, in 2003. And the last time there was a year-over-year decline in April’s average sale price was in 2009, during the recession.”
“Recent buyers caught up in the sudden price swing have begun telling their stories to the press in the hopes of gaining some financial relief while they wait for the market to recover. They may need to keep waiting.”
From MoneySense. “MoneySense caught up with Mustafa Abbasi recently, shortly after putting together its 2018 edition of Where to Buy Now. Abbasi is president of Zolo, a brokerage and real estate data specialist. MS: When a frenzied market retreats, you get a stark look at a lot of the aggressive lending, buying, flipping strategies that were in place. What are some of the things you’ve seen in the past year that show the impact of a market going through a correction, such as buyers having to tap alternative lenders.”
“Abbasi: You may be surprised, but the real estate industry is a pretty traditional business. We like balanced, tested and reliable processes. So, the rise in the use of alternative mortgage lenders has been a big surprise for us. Some clients have a ‘get in the market at all costs mentality’. While we may discuss the pros and cons of this approach, in the end it’s their decision. Plus, we are often left with that proverbial fumbled ball. Any agent may spend a month or more looking at houses, help a client make a successful offer only to get a panicked call that the client was refused by their bank and they need to find an alternative lender.”
“MS: And yet, there are a lot of people feeling relief, that reason has reasserted itself. In a very real way we are in a new normal that looks a lot like the pre-mania normal. But the mania was so strong and long-lived that many people don’t remember what normal is. Describe this new normal.”
“Abbasi: The new normal. Yes. We’ve heard a lot about that in the last few years. Normal used to be interest rates close to double digits with prime at 5% or 6%. The new normal will probably see prime a little lower with higher mortgage rates above 5-6%.”
From Prince Albert Now. “Prince Albert’s residential housing scene remains in the doldrums, making it very much a buyer’s market. According to the Saskatoon Region Association of Realtors, which oversees the Prince Albert market, every indicator is showing significant declines compared to last year. The latest statistics for P.A. don’t make for pleasant reading, unless you’re a buyer. The total sales dollar volume for April, compared to April 2017, was down 49 per cent. Year-to-date the decline was 23 per cent. The median home sale price for April was $211,500, which represents a 12 per cent decrease compared to $239,900 a year ago.”
“Asked if the P.A. property market had hit bottom, CEO Jason Yochim said it’s getting close. ‘I think we’re looking at probably a year to 18 months and we’re getting close to the bottom, but it’ll take that long to see a recovery,’ Yochim said.”
From CBC News. “Vancouver saw its weakest April for single-family home sales in nearly 30 years last month, data shows. The numbers are in line with the downward trend in detached home sales the city has seen all year — which experts say doesn’t bode well for the rest of the calendar year, given the fact that the spring months are usually the busiest time for sellers. Steve Saretsky, a real estate agent and industry blogger, said the slowdown has been a long time coming. Saretsky said the shift is due to a combination of factors: the market has seen a significant drop in foreign investment, speculation tax and tighter mortgage rules.”
“‘The writing’s been on the wall for a number of months now,’ he said. The agent stopped short of saying the the bubble is about to burst. ‘You don’t necessarily really want to call it, but there are a lot of things in place right now that are working against the market. We’ve had this huge run-up and nothing goes up forever, and I certainly think we’re turning a corner here. For those maybe holding out on the detached homes, I think they’re going to have to get a little bit more realistic.’”
The Vancouver Sun. “The Royal Bank of Canada quietly reported this month that housing costs in Metro Vancouver have reached ‘the worst affordability levels ever recorded anywhere in Canada.’ In this city of relatively tepid wages, the RBC says owning a home requires an ‘astounding 85 per cent of a typical household’s income.’ That compares to 75 per cent in Toronto and roughly 42 per cent in Montreal, Calgary and Ottawa.”
“Royal Bank CEO David McKay last month became the latest bank head to point to how foreign wealth is contributing to unaffordabilty by ‘distorting’ the country’s housing markets, by adding ‘gasoline’ to them. ‘We do not need foreign capital using Canadian real estate as a piggy bank.’”
“While numerous factors are behind the housing crisis, vested interests have attempted to craft a narrative that counters McKay and other realists. They act as if it’s xenophobic to suggest foreign capital has anything substantial to do with unaffordability in Vancouver and other gateway cities. Their diversionary methods are not unique to Vancouver, where UBC geographer David Ley, author of Millionaire Migrants, said developers first began playing the ‘racist’ card against affordability activists in the 1990s. Fear of the xenophobia label is why many have not publicly opposed foreign capital flowing into housing in Toronto, London and Sydney. The smokescreen has not proved so effective in Singapore and Hong Kong.”
“It is hard for anyone from the political right or left to ignore the declarations of, for instance, The National Bank of Canada, which said ‘almost $13 billion was spent by Chinese investors in Vancouver’ in one recent year alone. Significantly, the ‘gasoline’ metaphor adopted by the Royal Bank’s McKay is much like the one Vancouver activist Justin Fung, of HALT (Housing Action for Local Taxpayers), has been trying to get out for years.”
“‘I have always made the analogy that local speculators are the firewood and the foreign investors, money launderers and fraudsters are the fire starter. The fire would have burned either way, but with the fire starter added, it creates a fireball,’ Fung said.”
From Global News. “UBC is standing up for one of its professors against calls from owners of expensive homes to silence him because they don’t like what he’s saying. The professor is Thomas Davidoff, who’s been outspoken in the debate over taxation and density in Vancouver. Angry over the proposed school tax, Vancouver homeowners staged a rally in Trimble Park on Tuesday — one that was originally scheduled before a town hall meeting being held by area MLA and Attorney General David Eby. That meeting was cancelled over safety concerns.”
“However, protesters didn’t just set their sights on Eby: they also called for UBC to take action against Davidoff, an associate professor at the Sauder School of Business. ‘I suspect that every donor to UBC in any significant amount lives in a home [worth] over $3 million,’ area resident Matt Wood told protesters. ‘We need to send them a message that we can’t have professors like Davidoff teaching his ideology of entitlement and hate.’”
“That feeling was echoed in emails about Davidoff that were sent to UBC’s president. In one email, Shaughnessy resident Andrew Webb said, ‘How this American socialist transplant is crafting predatory tax policies for the government, and robbing homeowners of unrealized gains, is beyond me and beyond words.’”
The Macleans article is a parade of FB’s and sad pandas.
‘Mastrangelo was carrying two properties and a bridge loan, and facing a lawsuit and escalating legal fees. ‘I couldn’t even talk about the situation without bawling my eyes out’
Anyone else notice how jingle mail goes missing with his “shacks are a great investment” routine?
Huh?
*****
Mastrangelo filed a lawsuit against the first buyers and hopes to recover the difference in purchase prices.”
Almost makes you wonder if he got stucco.
As hilarious as that would be, the timeframe of his purchases doesn’t suggest it’s possible at this juncture. By dumb luck he happened to purchase at the right time, just before the wall of housing heroin money washed over the entire country.
Timing of purchases aside, the optimal window for offloading real estate HODLings is either closing or closed, depending on local factors that affect the timing of contagion from the crash already underway in various locales which were formerly a bit frothy, such as Manhattan and San Francisco. If he missed the boat, it may be another decade or possibly never that he will see prices like those in place at the end of Janet Yellen’s extend-and-pretend regime at the Fed.
“….. jingle mail goes missing….??”
Missing? I am not missing. I am right here….. just a little busy having some fun in retirement.
My shacks are great investments. I just sold 3 of them in the last 6 months and cleared $490,000 over the original cost. That doesn’t count the return of the original investment of $198,000, nor the $12,000 in cash flow each year, nor even the loan pay downs of about $11,600/year. It is before taxes (20%) and depreciation recapture (25%), so I’ll be paying Uncle Sam so serious money.
Buying real estate in the downturn was the best investment I ever made and it has provided me a wonderful economic platform for my retirement.
I don’t suggest you buy anything today in Vancouver, Toronto or even SF or San Diego, but I will tell you this: In San Diego last year in the 92101 zip (waterfront condos) there were 225 listings and my representative said that number held steady for the previous 4 years. Today, there are 310 listings.
I look forward to living in a water front San Diego high rise some time after 2020 or 2021. I might even pay all cash!
Jingle Male: From when he starts buying shacks: “there’s no bubble!”
Year after year, “there’s no bubble!”
Recently, “this is my third bubble!”
I never denied a bubble. You taught me there was a bubble and I agreed. I just bought at the bottom in 2010 while everyone else stood around sucking their thumbs waiting for a free house (except you Ben, since you bought foreclosures too).
I always pointed out here that I got “stucco” in the 1990 housing bubble. That is why I was so willing to agree with your thesis about the coming 2007 bubble. I just saved my money and marked my time while the opportunities started rolling my way.
‘I never denied a bubble’
Click!
What?
I was posting all the bubblicious news and photos on the HBB for everyone to see in 2007! Are you kidding me?
Ben you referred Alyssa Katz to.me in 2009. I am cited multiple times in her book “Our Lot”.
Have you forgotten my dedicated work as Paladin and my work with the FBI? Bejeebus, I am going to have to go into the archives and pull up some posts. Your memory is failing you!
“about the coming 2007 bubble…”
The beginning of understanding is calling things by their right name. The “bubble” is the unsustainable expansion. 2007 is the freefall.
“$12,000 in cash flow each year…” on a million of risk? And it all went to the mortgage payments! Mortgage on a million is $1000 a month…wow
Capital gains in 2017 and you “will” owe taxes. Forget to file your return?
I don’t think the truth abides in this one.
Bubble….bust….call it what you like…..it all leads to the same place.
Cash flow is after debt service.
I didn’t borrow $1,000,000. How did you make that up?
I have paid my taxes for 2017. Some of the gain is due for 2018. I have not paid that yet.
You can all try to poke holes anywhere you want, but the facts are I bought houses in the bust and the resulting cash flow and capital gains have been extraordinary.
“Facts” are made up all the time on the internet.
Hammond, OR Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Mortgage Fraud Ravages West Coast States
https://www.movoto.com/hammond-or/market-trends/
Liars can never keep their stories straight.
Rancho Cordova, CA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As Housing Confidence Plummets In Sacramento County
https://www.zillow.com/rancho-cordova-ca/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
….all cash….preferably on the courthouse steps!
‘Royal Bank CEO David McKay last month became the latest bank head to point to how foreign wealth is contributing to unaffordabilty by ‘distorting’ the country’s housing markets, by adding ‘gasoline’ to them. ‘We do not need foreign capital using Canadian real estate as a piggy bank.’
The article points out that “even globalist bankers” are calling out the foreign speculation.
‘‘We need to send them a message that we can’t have professors like Davidoff teaching his ideology of entitlement and hate.’…‘How this American socialist transplant is crafting predatory tax policies for the government, and robbing homeowners of unrealized gains, is beyond me and beyond words.’
From where I sit, it has always appeared the worst thing a Canadian can say about you is that you’re a racist. Well now the REIC has schlonged the entire country with this BS.
…”and robbing homeowners of unrealized gains…”
That’s quite a statement. If the gains are not yet present, how can they be stolen?
Apparently, it is everyone’s right to realize a gain. Hear that, God? Your minions are entitled, and you had better deliver!
I really like the “Bankrupt By Beanies” documentary as discussed here awhile ago.
Not because it talks about the stupid stuffed toy mania. But because it is amazing to see the parallels to other ponzis, bubbles and financial manias.
My favorite line (paraphrasing):
“When a Beanie Baby run was retired, it went up in price from $5 to $60 to $300 or $400 on Ebay. Every time. For years. It was like a law or something. Until one day, a run was retire and it didn’t go up in value. And none ever did after that…”
+++++
Bankrupt By Beanies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgDsyj5eLmo
Wow, 15,000 Beanie Babies at $6 each = $90k
‘The writing’s been on the wall for a number of months now,’ he said. The agent stopped short of saying the the bubble is about to burst. ‘You don’t necessarily really want to call it, but there are a lot of things in place right now that are working against the market’
Grow a pair Steve. It’s a bubble and I’ve said so for years. As a matter of fact, I said so when something could have been done. It’s too late now. Enjoy the pop.
I said so when something could have been done. It’s too late now ??
The Crisis Next Time
Ten years after a financial meltdown, America hasn’t grappled with the root problems.
The ten years since the meltdown have seen seismic political and cultural shifts, as the 2016 election demonstrated. Americans are far more skeptical of the status quo than they were a decade ago. But in terms of the imbalances plaguing the U.S. economy, we could turn back the clock and see little difference between then and now.
https://www.city-journal.org/html/crisis-next-time-15873.html?utm_source=City+Journal+Update&utm_campaign=4708317676-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_05_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6c08930f2b-4708317676-109331549
Changing colors now are you davey?
Well, Blue, there’s little left to be squeezed out of the housing market without substantial risk.
A change of dynamics, a change of horses. It is expected of the unethical.
Yeah just shaking my head. Only a month ago he advised a naive newbie here to jump all in on generational debt if she could figure out the howmuchamonth.
The wind has changed. This is not the only indication.
Arlington, VA Housing Prices Crater11% YOY As Housing Depreciation Haunts Debt Burden Homeowners
https://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/
Just wait until the bubble pops, and Uncle Warren finds himself HODLing a bevy of falling knife cimpanies and high-end real estate. You ain’t seen nothing yet.
The Financial Times
Companies
Berkshire suffers $1bn loss after accounting change
Swings in portfolio value overshadow improvements in underlying businesses
3 hours ago
Please dump your bonds as quickly as time allows so that my investment team can pick them up at firesale prices before the onset of the next recession. All your monies are belongs to us.
Buffett: Bonds are ‘terrible investment’ at anything near current yields
By William L. Watts
Published: May 5, 2018 12:56 p.m. ET
…
Speaking of Warren:
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/06/c_137158485.htm
Comments to the last link:
Thomas Ciz
I strongly disagree with Davidoff’s views on the so called “housing crisis” and his call for government manipulation of the market to benefit a not-so-disadvantaged segment of the population at the expense of the equity of current homeowners. Of course, everyone is entitled to express their opinions even if they are stupid.
Jesse Mrau
“… teaching our children his ideology of entitlement and hate.”
*Proceeds to act entitled.
“… robbing homeowners of unrealized gains is beyond me and beyond words.”
I find this confusing. Using the terminology unrealized gains implies they view their homes as investments and not livable assets. Not exactly the best optics. Investments have risks, are not guaranteed to go up perpetually, and sometimes there are regulatory risks.
Conservative Family Values
Time to take this communist scum for a helicopter ride! WE WON THE COLD WAR! you can beg for scraps or STARVE! We have the MONEY and the POWER and if this guy knows whats good for him he should SHUT UP!
Adolf Morrison
The Chinese homebuyers, who created our housing problem, should be charged 10% / year. The mere threat of investigations into past purchases might force many to sell. Laundering practices, backdoor deals and misleading ownership should all result in jail time and property confiscation. Those in power who allowed this to go on, with obvious motivations, should be fired and potentially jailed as accessories. This is our real problem. This is what we should be talking about every day, until it is dealt with.
James Blatchford
While Tsur Sommerville was acting mute, Prof Davidoff was ringing the alarm bells about the rampant corruption in VanReal. Of course the real estate board cried foul, and Richie Coleman ordered another cheeseburger, but Davidoff has been proven absolutely correct. Nothing like listening to millionaires moaning in the morning.
Bryan Rad
Look around at your neighbors point grey folk, they are all Chinese nationals aka fentanyl dealers. Please ban these people from Canada.
Adolf Morrison
Agreed Bryan. We have long been so afraid to be called racist, that we never speak the truth. Then we are run over by people from cultures that are full of corruption and dishonesty. It’s a shame, really. China was so cool for thousands of years. Now they have descended into a locust mentality that will eventually suck the world dry. If there’s a loophole, you bet they’ll find it. FOR THE RECORD: This isn’t a Chinese ‘people’ problem, it’s a mainland Chinese ‘cultural’ problem. Still, I’m sure some leftist looney will call these comments racist.
Connor Hughes
Adolf Morrison well, when you start referring to a “locust mentality” it’s not that much of a stretch.
Tips for not being accused of racism: Refer to them as foreigners, not by their ethnicity. Distinguish between immigrants and offshore buyers. Distinguish amongst immigrants those who have come here to work and those who bought their way in through an investor visa program and contribute little to our economy.
If you do that, anyone who calls you a racist is readily transparent and you can easily call them out on it.
Stephen Green
Marxists like Davidoff need to return to a place where they can ply their flawed opinions. The Peoples Republic of China comes to mind. These Marxists believe that all their money should be turned over to government. They despise success of individuals. SFU Professor Tom Gunton is another Marxist that needs to be ignored
“… robbing homeowners of unrealized gains is beyond me and beyond words.”
It’s “loanowners,” not “homeowners.” Until people start having real conversations using facts instead of stupid talking points, nothing can change. Somebody who puts next to nothing down on a shack is NOT a “homeowner.” They are a debt-junkie who owns nothing but a massive payment. Again, until the loan is paid off, they own NOTHING. Even then, stop paying the taxes and see what happens. I watch the county auctions every year, and there are a ton of shacks available due to a failure to pay taxes.
Technically, they own any appreciation on the property. But yeah, they’re still up to their eyeballs in debt.
Yes and when you put 3 percent down and the house goes up 21 percent in one year, you have earned seven times the “investment” it beats making money the old fashion way.
you have earned seven times the “investment” it beats making money the old fashion way.
Actually you would have earned NOTHING unless and until you sold your “investment” and pocketed the proceeds. The delusionary aspect of the housing bubble is shown clearly in the structure / logic of this sentence.
“Actually you would have earned NOTHING unless and until you sold your “investment” and pocketed the proceeds. The delusionary aspect of the housing bubble is shown clearly in the structure / logic of this sentence.”
Exactly. Is it any surprise that ShangahiDan is a “homeowner?” LMFAO. Selling a house is a major PITA, and extremely expensive and time consuming. Most people will use a REALWHORE, so there goes 6% off the top. Then you’ve got your local excise taxes, closing costs with the title company, all of your moving expenses, any unpaid taxes, and a host of other costs. Did I mention houses are illiquid? Fawk that noise. I’ll take my chances on anything else if I want to “invest.”
“Actually you would have earned NOTHING unless and until you sold your “investment” and pocketed the proceeds. The delusionary aspect of the housing bubble is shown clearly in the structure / logic of this sentence.”
Well SOMEBODY earned something from all this financial activity and if you want to discover just who this somebody is just drop by my bank and possibly we could have a conversation over a cup of coffee (I’ll buy!) about how you, too, can become a real estate mogul.
I met my post as sarcasm but if you want to get technical the converse of your posts is true too. Unless the FBs are forced to sell before the government manipulates housing higher they have lost nothing. Just like many of the FBs in California that were way underwater during the low point for prices and now how lots of equity and some are cashing it out and moving to flyover or have borrowed lots of it and our living the dream. The stock market crashed in 2008 partly due to the leverage that wall street was using of 30 plus or more, which was not available to most people due to regulation. Thus, the reason middle class folk do speculate with housing. At long, as we have a system where you lose your 3%, if the housing goes south but you face the potential of making 30 plus times if housing double, people are going to speculate and it is a logical choice since the upside is so much greater than the downside. There is a bit of hate the game not the player here. Governments have created the game.
“There is a bit of hate the game not the player here. Governments have created the game.”
Here. Let me:
1. Everyone else is doing it, why shouldn’t I?
2. It’s legal, therefore, it’s okay. Right?
3. It’s a rigged game…so I have to whether I like it or not.
4. ‘Tis better to screw than be screwed.
Did I miss any?
Not justifying the greed but some people are forced to buy because you have to live somewhere and it is choice of overpaying for rent or overpaying for a house. When you go beyond fulfilling your own legitimate need for housing then you are part of the problem. Nevertheless, the truly evil people are those that have control and have purposely driven of housing to create a mechanism to force people to increase their debt loans. It is government and the .1 percent that own government that fit that description.
“Not justifying the greed but some people are forced to buy because you have to live somewhere and it is choice of overpaying for rent or overpaying for a house. ”
There are other options. One of these is for the people themselves to do something entirely different…like opting out of the housing market.
It’s easier than you think.
Defiance could come with people who own property (single family dwellings) taking in paying OR non-paying borders.
But not out of financial necessity or monetary gain.
Rather, you do so out of political necessity - out of a need to guarantee individual liberty.
We have a history in this country of The People saying no. There’s no reason we cannot do so again.
I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the Warsaw Pact countries in 1989. We may be doing the same here in the USA.
Does the general population’s desire for The Constitution outweigh globalist intent? I believe that it does.
you do so out of political necessity - out of a need to guarantee individual liberty The book on the Dust Bowl titled “The Worst Hard Times” told of a local school teacher who worked for free for more than a year to keep the local school district going, when tax revenue collapsed. She and the district survived. In her old age she was revered by her beneficiaries.
“The home sold for 25 per cent less than what John had paid just five months earlier, leading to hundreds of thousands of dollars in losses. ‘I was so greedy,’ he says now. ‘I will not play the game like that again.’”
“The game?” Housing is shelter. It’s despicable what’s become of this world.
Rapacious greed has essentially destroyed the quality of living the world over. I don’t know who is worse - the pigman who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth but can never have enough, or the pauper who fell into wealth by way of dumb luck or a windfall, got a taste of the good life, and cannot get enough. I’ve seen both sides in different people, and both are extremely ugly.
I am not a fan of big government, or gov in general, but what Canada is doing to root out speculation is something that the United States could take a lesson on. Do I expect it to happen? Hell no. It seems we have been, and always will be, open to the highest bidder.
‘I am not a fan of big government’
Yeah, note the Canadian’s crying socialist! Give me a break. Government is the shack market. From loans to permits to allowing money laundering.
Remember when the Panama Papers came out and it was discovered that the US had made off shore RE speculation even easier?
By all means, let’s get government out of the shack markets. Everybody ready for 10 year loans max? I am.
The government would never consider 10 year max loans, or anything else that would cause prices to fall. They are actively trying to push prices higher and higher. These policies are absolutely crushing people in every city in this country as housing costs have soared to levels never before seen. When did the United States government decide to adopt policies to actively punish and do great harm to its own citizens?
‘When did the United States government decide to adopt policies to actively punish and do great harm to its own citizens?’
So why not make a perpetual money machine? Do you know I had countless trolls telling me the same thing in 2005?
‘The technology-stock bubble of the late 1990s and its subsequent deflation were among the defining events of Greenspan’s tenure. Greenspan never denied that financial bubbles exist, as witnessed by his famous “Irrational Exuberance” speech in December 1996. But he remains unconvinced that anyone can reliably predict when they will pop.’
“You can spot a bubble. They’re obvious in every respect. But it is impossible for the majority of participants in the market to call the date when it blows. Every bubble by definition deflates. But when that deflation occurs, it requires a point at which the vast majority of market participants do not expect it to happen. Almost everybody is bullish, expects the market to go up, and is fully committed. At that point if you took a survey of what the outlook was, you’d get an overwhelming positive response the day before it falls on its face.”
“That tells you a great deal about forecasting. This is the reason why everybody missed September the 15th, 2008.”
“One of the things that people don’t recognize is I made a speech in 2005, my last speech at the Jackson Hole conference, in which I was afraid to put a line in, so I put it in somewhat Fed-speak. I said, “Let’s remember that history has not dealt kindly with very prolonged low [risk] spreads.” And I said, “Do I dare dare say that?” And I said, “Yeah, it’s balanced enough. ”
“I can recall a lot of people at the Federal Reserve raising all of these issues. I was sitting there 18-and-a-half years, getting an extraordinary amount of advice from everybody under the sun. Every day for most of the period from let’s say late 1980s basically through the end of my term, I would get almost every week people predicting that the world was coming to an end. That the economy was going to crash. “There are imbalances. There’s too much debt. There’s too much speculation.”
“After a while you begin to say that this stuff is random, because you have this same thing going on on the other side. But in retrospect, what everybody reads is five or six guys who did get it right.”
“You know, when [Eugene] Fama and [Robert] Shiller got the Nobel, in the New York Times, they have Fama saying about Shiller’s forecast of a decline in housing prices, “Aw yeah, he’s been saying that for years.” [Greenspan asked me to check that, and the actual line from the article was pretty close: ”Asked in 2010 about those who warned that housing prices would crash, he responded, ‘Right. For example, Shiller was saying that since 1996.'”]
“Even if you believe it, you shouldn’t say that. I mean it’s un-nice in the extreme. But the problem is it’s true. I had at my call 250 first-rate PhDs in economics. I mean good ones. They’re building this thing we called FRB/US, this extraordinarily clever set of the most advanced econometrics that you can imagine. With every bell and whistle that anybody suggested, it was in there. It missed the crisis.”
“The IMF missed the crisis. My friends at J.P. Morgan put out a weekly forecast. They’ve been doing it for years. And three days before September the 15th, they had the economy going straight up.”
“What I’m trying to get at here is that implied in a lot of the stuff that’s being written now is that there were people who actually really got it right. And the answer is yes, that is factually accurate. But you would not have made money off their predictions in the past. I know these people.”
https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-alan-greenspan-has-learned-since-2008
‘With every bell and whistle that anybody suggested, it was in there. It missed the crisis’
All you need is this Alan:
‘We were putting in offers and escalation clauses and writing letters about how the house would be wonderful for us and our dog,’ Bonner said. She offers this advice for other home shoppers: ‘Make an offer immediately and make it high.’
‘There is still a considerable demand for housing,’ said Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. ‘Because we’ve had low inventories, sellers can basically ask anything — and get it.’
‘Almost everybody is bullish, expects the market to go up, and is fully committed. At that point if you took a survey of what the outlook was, you’d get an overwhelming positive response the day before it falls on its face.’
‘That tells you a great deal about forecasting.’
Click!
I rely on what I find in the press because that’s all my budget allows. But here’s one thing: when shack prices rise more than wages, month and year after consecutive month and year, you just might want to take notice.
“These policies are absolutely crushing people in every city in this country as housing costs have soared to levels never before seen. When did the United States government decide to adopt policies to actively punish and do great harm to its own citizens?”
Ahh…..Domestic Imperialism as I call it.
Dan made a comment a few days ago labeling it a steady push back toward “feudalism”.
Destroying much of the population’s ability to own a home outright is part of the globalist plan. They wants paupers to lord over. Makes them feel superior and stuff.
Has the HBB not yet figured that out?
“The IMF missed the crisis. My friends at J.P. Morgan put out a weekly forecast. They’ve been doing it for years. And three days before September the 15th, they had the economy going straight up.”
A reliance on computer forecasting has its drawbacks. Computer modelling has not and never will substitute for sound reasoning.
Most economists aren’t too sharp. The worst of the lot spend all their days examining computer models. They believe that models are “knowledge” and are “factual”.
The same is true among weather forecasters. Ever notice the better weather forecasters tend to rely more on their knowledge and experience than models? I have.
Take the “prompters” away and you can quickly discover who knows their sh*t and who doesn’t.
“Let’s remember that history has not dealt kindly with very prolonged low [risk] spreads.”
The actual statement said low risk premiums, and I understand what he meant. It seems interesting to me how the Bernanke-Yellen Fed used Quantitative Easing to financially engineer a ten-year extension of the period of low risk premiums, to the point where artificially suppressed risk spreads seemed normal and permanent. It’s almost as though Greenspan’s prophetic warning was roundly ignored.
Has the HBB not yet figured that out?
Of course and it is said here over and over. Debt is the instrument of one’s own destruction. Ya know what? One can obtain excellent shelter without debt or hardship. In this country of plenty one can make certain easy choices and save enough money in short order to buy a house and have an extraordinary standard of living at a fraction of what the average person earns. Following the crowd into debt, greed and consumerism and you are screwed six ways from Sunday.
Blue, I am not at all sure that people here do know.
A number of people here have recently described their own behaviors and spending patterns that in no way support the idea that they realize they are purposefully being undermined.
There’s plenty of people here who actively participate in a “greater fool” mindset.
I’ve been told by people here there’s no such thing as “domestic imperialism”. In a world dominated by globalists, governments turning against their own citizenry is a must. After all, there is no standing global military.
The housing syndicate is part of a larger, deliberate attempt to destroy lives and societies worldwide.
Migrating populations is another.
In days past, I was told numerous times that there is no such thing as NeoCons = Progressives. Thankfully, with Trump as president, there’s no need to tout that anymore.
The non-stop, all out attack on Trump is definitive proof. What that man has to contend on a daily basis with is unprecedented, at least in this country.
That NeoCon = Progressive equivalency is so obvious now that every Joe and Jane Smith can understand it if they pay the slightest bit of attention.
Obvious to me as well and to many others here.
You can read truth here, or anywhere truth is spoken, and ignore it, question it, even rail against it. Just don’t say nobody gets your point. We are not all of like mind. Some are at certain intersections.
All these folks were short term flippers
Not even a coat of paint…
‘When Toronto-area home prices began their slide, the market served up painful lessons for buyers and sellers alike — and revealed shady behaviour that helped inflate prices in the first place’
It’ll be the same in the US. All the fraud and Chinese crooks and everyone will point their fingers around at anyone but themselves.
‘For the first time in a generation, it was possible to lose money in the Toronto real estate market’
And no one could see this wasn’t normal?
“And no one could see this wasn’t normal?”
Correct (and therein lies the beauty of it 😁).
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” - Charles MacKay
‘John, who asked that his name not be used for reasons that will become obvious, knew he had to make an offer. He figured he could rent it out, and if the payments didn’t cover the mortgage costs, no matter. Back in early 2017, home prices in Toronto were on an unstoppable tear, surging double-digits every month. The house would surely be worth more in no time. The home was on the market for only a few days when John’s offer was accepted. He bid nearly $1.9 million, about $360,000 more than the list price. Then everything fell apart’
Ahem…
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10422
‘We were putting in offers and escalation clauses and writing letters about how the house would be wonderful for us and our dog,’ Bonner said. She offers this advice for other home shoppers: ‘Make an offer immediately and make it high.’
‘There is still a considerable demand for housing,’ said Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. ‘Because we’ve had low inventories, sellers can basically ask anything — and get it.’
I bet ol’ John would have been happy to give his full name if he had hit the jackpot. What are you ashamed of John?
“What are you ashamed of John?”
You get to choose only one:
1. “He bid nearly $1.9 million, about $360,000 more than the list price.”
2. “Then everything fell apart.”
Aptly named, John is.
‘There is still a considerable demand for housing,’ said Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. ‘Because we’ve had low inventories, sellers can basically ask anything — and get it.’
This quote was from Jackson County in southern Oregon, where median household income is $36k and change, yet tiny houses in town are $600,000+, largely bought and sold by California equity locust flippers. That’s normal, right?
How about a 500 square foot 1 bedroom house in Ashland for $300,000? That’s normal, right?
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Ashland-OR/pmf,pf_pt/2089788733_zpid/30275_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/42.51007,-121.922837,41.848593,-123.103867_rect/9_zm/
How about a 4 bedroom house just 2 blocks from the park? It’s a “hidden gem” and it’s only $1,050,000, in little old Ashland, California, I mean Oregon. That’s normal, right?
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Ashland-OR/pmf,pf_pt/48324777_zpid/30275_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/42.51007,-121.922837,41.848593,-123.103867_rect/9_zm/2_p/
Someone should check on Jackson County elected officials.
How much do they pay themselves? Any gratuities or kickbacks?
Is there a reason for any of them to spend time in the clink?
Just wondering…
Not specific to Jackson County but from a few weeks ago:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/14/business/pension-finance-oregon.html
“A public university president in Oregon gives new meaning to the idea of a pensioner.
Joseph Robertson, an eye surgeon who retired as head of the Oregon Health & Science University last fall, receives the state’s largest government pension.
It is $76,111.
Per month.
That is considerably more than the average Oregon family earns in a year.
Oregon — like many other states and cities, including New Jersey, Kentucky and Connecticut — is caught in a fiscal squeeze of its own making. Its economy is growing, but the cost of its state-run pension system is growing faster. More government workers are retiring, including more than 2,000, like Dr. Robertson, who get pensions exceeding $100,000 a year.”
You know what? This is theft. The people never got to vote on this stuff. Their future was mortgaged without their consent. I’m looking forward to the day when “pensioners” like this doctor get shafted. This is absolutely insane - the guy is making more per month than 2 families make in a year, and they’re the ones who have to pay his way.
This is absolutely insane - the guy is making more per month than 2 families make in a year, and they’re the ones who have to pay his way.
A promise is a promise, and if families have to suffer to make good on those promises, so be it.
Your future is secondary, BSM. It always has been.
None of this will get better until Boomers die off in large numbers. Say 10-15 years from now.
Regardless, it’s too late for you, Gen X man. You’re screwed. And no one is going to help you, either. You are on your own.
Better think ahead for alternatives to your 401K. That balance will likely get taxed more heavily than you expected. (Bill in LA once mentioned something about offshore IRAs - it’s too early for me to look into that as the landscape might look much different 20 years from now).
Millennials may reap some benefit with the Boomer die-off. Might have to wait until age 50+ though.
“It is $76,111… Per month.”
That’s one heck of a union.
Ah, the music …
“The Royal Bank of Canada quietly reported this month that housing costs in Metro Vancouver have reached ‘the worst affordability levels ever recorded anywhere in Canada.’ In this city of relatively tepid wages, the RBC says owning a home requires an ‘astounding 85 per cent of a typical household’s income.’”
85 percent of a typical household’s income in order to buy a home?
Bahahahahahahahahahaha.
Pukes work to earn money and then they willingly agree to ship to me each and every month up to eighty-five percent of this money that they earn and they agree to do this for decades - DECADES!
Bahahahanahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Once again,
1. Dumb ‘em down.
2. Profit.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahanahahahahahahaha.
That compares to 75 per cent in Toronto and roughly 42 per cent in Montreal, Calgary and Ottawa.”
“That compares to 75 per cent in Toronto and roughly 42 per cent in Montreal, Calgary and Ottawa.”
Obviously these places need a bit more “enlightenment”.
Maybe the next go-around.
the RBC says owning a home requires an ‘astounding 85 per cent of a typical household’s income
And when the mortgage adjusts (upward) it will require even more.
😁
Bellaire, TX Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As Oil Bust Slams Dallas Area
https://www.zillow.com/bellaire-tx/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
What will make the housing boom go bust? ‘Greed’ - The Globe and Mail
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/…/real-estate/what-will-make-the-housing-boom-go...
Apr 14, 2012 - Ben Jones saw the storm clouds forming over the United States housing market back in 2004. Now, he has a gloomy forecast for Canada.
Then this was put out, in part a response to the Globe and Mail. Check it out around 14:50.
What if it’s not a bubble? - Real Estate Marketer Bob Rennie addresses UDI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCSIg51DLDk
He called me Arizona Ben!
He called me Arizona Ben!
The “Prophet of Arizona” is more apt.
I wouldn’t call Ben a prophet.
“Realist” is a better fit.
I can’t see into the future. Never could. I’ve said before that when I went to California years ago, most of the HBBers would tell me a familiar tale. There was some moment, a conversation or transaction, some single instant that they realized something was screwy about the housing market. I had that moment too, when my Austin landlords mortgage statement came in the mail and I accidentally opened it. His payment was twice my rent and that was the highest rent I had ever paid by far. That started me thinking about it and it was years before I fully understood. But at that moment, I said to myself, he’s speculating.
I remember people flipping houses in San Diego as far back as the 80’s.
My clue was in 2001. I was moving to the boonies of Western NY from the Philly burbs. Was paying the mortgage on a $250K house back there still and the bank pre-approved me for $500K on a new house. The payments would have been more than I was making. I thought it was ridiculous.
A few years later the light bulb went on. I can’t remember exactly just how I found this oasis of sanity 12 years ago.
A Long Rant About Bob Rennie : vancouver - Reddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/…/a_long_rant_about_bob_rennie/
May 16, 2016 - One year ago I was blood boiling angry with Vancouver “Condo King” Bob Rennie. I recall distinctly thinking “I want to … You’re just rambling about how people are misattributing the housing bubble as being the result of foreign investment and idolizing an asshole developer.
Sep 13, 2017
Brace for more housing shortages, warns Vancouver real estate guru
torqcampbell on Twitter: “bob rennie: current title holder of the biggest …
https://twitter.com/torquilcampbell/status/744880110449332224
Jun 20, 2016 - … bob rennie: current title holder of the biggest asshole in canada
ASKBiblitz on Twitter: “Crash! And take that asshole Bob Rennie with it …
https://twitter.com/leobiblitz/status/613724921789743104
And the “Winners” are … the Worst of Vancouver, 2015 | scamcouver
https://scamcouver.blog/2015/09/…/and-the-winners-are-the-worst-of-vancouver-201...
Sep 28, 2015 - BMW (possibly an M5, possibly belonging to Bob Rennie) … be an asshole.
2013: The Scam Reviewed | scamcouver
https://scamcouver.blog/2013/12/31/2013-the-scam-reviewed/
Dec 31, 2013 - bob rennie is an asshole
Hey Bob…. You and your boss go f_ck yourselves.
Sincerely,
Spineless Signatureless Individual
Vienna, VA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As NoVa/DC Population Decline Acccelerates
https://www.movoto.com/vienna-va/market-trends/
“Hey Bob…. You and your boss go f_ck yourselves.”
Hey, ease up! You’re messin’ with my profit center!
When I click on your first link, I am “forbidden.” Not sure why I cannot access it.
Me, too. Here:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/what-will-make-the-housing-boom-go-bust-greed/article4100579/
Unofrtunately “This interview has been condensed and edited.”
‘The home sold for 25 per cent less than what John had paid just five months earlier, leading to hundreds of thousands of dollars in losses. ‘I was so greedy,’ he says now.’
Looks like I was right.
Arizona Ben, with less 500 followers, could destroy us and the industry!!!
He must be shut down.
This kinda reminds me of the Hillary Clinton blaming a youtube video for the attack on the consulate in Benghazi.
No one has EVER heard of the video or the guy who produced it but somehow it set off a global geopolitical crisis.
And the guy was ARRESTED!
What he was doing was chastising the Globe and Mail for interviewing me. But it was funny to hear him say these things said were dangerous. How could a guy in Arizona do anything to the Vancouver market? I’d rather have two people read this blog and be right than like him, the go to REIC cheerleader who slow walked many thousands into this situation. How embarrassing for you Bob! Anyway, it’s a compliment to be a target of the “biggest asshole in Canada”.
In the bad old days of:
20% down payments
Full income verification
Banks eating their bad loans
GAAP and bank fraud laws enforced with JAIL
There was NO firewood except tiny piles of kindling that burned out very quickly with nearly everyone else shaking their heads.
++++
“‘I have always made the analogy that local speculators are the firewood and the foreign investors, money launderers and fraudsters are the fire starter. The fire would have burned either way, but with the fire starter added, it creates a fireball,’ Fung said.”
20% down? The FHA has been around since 1934. May parents bought their first house in 1963 in Orange County with a low down FHA loan.
The only people I ever met who put 20% down on a house were:
1) People who had appreciation on the current house and traded up
2) People who had a windfall. An inheritance or (more currently) they won the stock option lottery.
Especially in San Diego, it seemed that every other person I met bought their place with a zero down VA loan, and this was in the 1980’s.
FHA and VA loans were a tiny sliver of the market.
For almost 50 years - the vast majority of mortgages were through a bank who kept the mortgage. And it was a 20% downpayment - PERIOD.
Everyone in the neighborhood had an FHA loan (my dad later told me that all first time buyers had FHA or VA loans). They were all young first time buyers, in their early twenties. It’s more than obvious none of them saved the 20% down payment.
VA a tiny sliver? You’ve obviously never been to San Diego or any other military town. I got so sick of hearing people gloating to me that they paid 0% down, and this was in the 80’s.
This could be a huge reason San Diego home prices have been out of whack with local incomes for so long!
“For almost 50 years - the vast majority of mortgages were through a bank who kept the mortgage. And it was a 20% downpayment - PERIOD.”
Correct. And the longest term available was a 10 year mortgage which was an exception. Most mortgage terms were 5 or 7 years.
Monterey, CA Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY As Business Confidence Plummets
https://www.movoto.com/monterey-ca/market-trends/
I bought my first house in 1978. It was 20% or hit the road. Was California ahead of the curve in figuring out such welfare schemes?
Didn’t all those GI’s who came back from WW2 get married and immediately buy houses? I seriously doubt they had the 20% down saved up. Remember Levittown? From wikipedia:
There was no curve for California to be ahead of. FHA and VA were/are national programs. If you had to pay 20% down, it’s because you were going conventional.
My parents bought their first home in a southern California cookie cutter subdivision in 1963, four years after they were married. They probably could have done it sooner, but my dad was still an apprentice machinist before that.
Conventional yes. My point is that I wasn’t even aware there was a government cheese program for mortgages. Was I singularly stupid or was there some kind of pushing this in certain areas like California?
Just to add to the mystery, the employer was a big big company. The offer to guarantee 10% with the bank to buy a house was supposedly a huge benefit. I only had to come up with the other 10% ($2700) which was huge for me at the time.
What was the fuss if I could go welfare with the FHA?
Was I singularly stupid or was there some kind of pushing this in certain areas like California?
The first Levittowns were on the east coast. California had nothing to do with it. FHA and VA were a nationwide programs
Were you stupid? I don’t think so. Most likely just uninformed. But think about it. Zillions of very young (say 22 or even younger), single income couples were able to buy houses in the 40’s and after, on lunch pail, blue collar wages.
I’ve seen references to FHA loans in old Looney Toons from the 1940’s.
It appears that VA and FHA loans for Levittowns were only for qualified veterans.
Realtors are liars.
God bless DJT.
There is a reason why big tech companies are huge democrat supporters/donors
+++++
H-1B visa’s tighter rules illegal, tech outsourcers claim in lawsuit
San Jose Mercury News | May 3, 2018 | By ETHAN BARON
A group of outsourcing companies that use the H-1B visa to fill U.S. jobs with foreign workers have filed a lawsuit claiming recent U.S. government restrictions on the visa program are illegal.
The legal action attacks a February policy change by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration that imposed tighter requirements on outsourcers seeking H-1B visas, which are intended for jobs requiring specialized skills and a bachelor’s degree or higher.
“Congress has consistently shown the public policy is to increase access to IT professionals, and not increase burdens on US companies to retain this resource,” said the lawsuit, which was filed Tuesday in federal court in New Jersey.
The companies and group filing suit claim the new H-1B requirements will “choke out” their work by denying them H-1B visas and visa extensions.
“Congress has consistently shown that it’s either worthless or positively harmful to its public’s wellbeing. FIFY.
I’m sure the Chuck Tumor/Dingbat Pelosi team will be right on it.
Advancing non-existent illegal alien rights appears to be their specialty.
Caught just part of a show on NPR heading back from the boat yard. A crab meat processor was absolutely wailing that there were tighter restrictions on bringing in foreign workers. Something about a lottery. He actually said that no American will do the job of cracking crab. Says he’s now in limbo, helpless, because Trump.
I wondered if he himself would work in his own plant. This bringing back jobs for Americans thing seems to be complicated!
“Congress has consistently shown the public policy is to increase access to IT professionals, and not increase burdens on US companies to retain this resource,”
So what you’re saying is that when you buy Congress they are supposed to stay bought? Even when “increasing access to IT professionals” is directly opposed to the interest of American citizens and what you are really doing is using H1Bs as a form of scabs to bust the “American citizen and permanent resident” union?
2banana’s Rule:
Conservatives are more than happy to live under the same laws and taxes they want for everyone else.
Liberals/progressives expect to exempted from the same laws and taxes they want for everyone else.
And why is Seattle trying so hard to become the next Detroit?
+++++
Amazon shelves Seattle expansion plans over proposed tax hike
Seattle Times | May 3, 2018 | Matt Day
The company that’s conquered the world of online retail is now taking on its hometown City Hall, with Amazon delivering an unprecedented public threat Wednesday against a proposal for a new tax on large employers in Seattle.
The company helmed by Jeff Bezos has planned to fill its 17-story “Block 18″ tower and the skyscraper being built at Rainier Square with an estimated 7,000 workers. Mayor Jenny Durkan vowed to seek common ground, while council members pushing the measure gave no indication they intend to back down.
The e-commerce behemoth last week reported a quarterly profit of $1.6 billion and has been targeted by local social-justice activists, who argue a company led by the world’s richest person can afford to do more to help people living without shelter.
Five of the council’s nine members are backing an employee-hours tax on businesses grossing at least $20 million per year in Seattle that would raise an estimated $75 million annually.
They estimate the so-called “head tax” of about $500 per employee would apply to 500 to 600 companies and they are calling for it to be spent on low-income housing and emergency services for homeless people. The council has been planning to vote later this month.
The head tax could cost Amazon — with about 45,000 Seattle workers — more than $20 million per year in 2019 and 2020. In 2021, it would be replaced by a 0.7 percent payroll tax.
Under that formula, Amazon’s liability would likely increase. Assuming the company had 50,000 Seattle employees by 2021, its payroll-tax obligation would be an estimated $39 million. Analysis of employee data posted to the job-reviews site Glassdoor suggests Amazon employees in the city are paid an average of about $110,000 per year.
Supporters of the tax say the companies driving Seattle’s economic boom are also, by attracting high-wage tech workers to the city, driving up rents and home prices. Washington state doesn’t tax income or capital gains, leaving Seattle with few new revenue options as its population explodes, the measure’s sponsors said in a joint statement.
Since Amazon opened its South Lake Union headquarters in 2010, Seattle housing costs have grown at among the fastest rates in the nation. The median cost of a single-family house in Seattle has jumped 110 percent to $820,000, while rents have increased 64 percent, with the typical two-bedroom now costing more than $2,000.
“And why is Seattle trying so hard to become the next Detroit?”
A very good question. I’ve long ago concluded that many people just cannot stand prosperity and that they will do whatever it takes to destroy whatever prosperity they happen to obtain.
You have a part of the answer.
The other part is people get an insane entitlement attitude as in things will never change.
Detroit in the 1950 was an amazing place. Third largest city in America. Prosperous. Lots of jobs. Everyone wants to live there. Beautiful neighborhoods and amazing houses were built.
Seattle doesn’t see any parallels.
I have worked in many union plants as an engineer. In one example, the union folks there made excellent money (they were really the 1% of the rust belt town with OT), vacations, new cars, nice houses, boats, almost free medical care, amazing pensions, etc. But these were the most miserable and ungrateful workers I have ever been associated with because of their attitudes.
It was contract time and the company wanted a slight give back on medical costs.
There was a strike and sabotage to very expensive products that were about to be delivered.
Eventually, the contract was worked out.
A few years later - the factory moved south to a right to work state. Talking to upper management - the primary reason for the move was to get away from the militant and violent union and hire people who actually were grateful to work.
Now - All those folks former 1% union workers had NOTHING. Minimum wage or “retraining” which never worked out.
They lost it all - for WHAT?
You are reminding me of the Toyota plant in Mississippi. Did they pick a location far from Motor City for any special reason?
The economy is a competition for resources. I try to convince others to give me money.
A company has a flow of cash coming in. The people responsible for divvying it up are top level executives. They’re not going to part with more than they absolutely have to.
Without unions, labor has little bargaining power. In tech, in some sectors, there are very few with the required skillset, so they can command high salaries. BUT, in fields where many people have the requisite skillset, and can be easily replaced, they have little bargaining power. Without a union, they are going to get a very poor deal. Management is organized. Labor is not. The results are what is visible in many industries.
THEN, beyond that, the US imposes costs on businesses - worker protection and environmental laws. Then businesses simply move production to places without those costs/laws. Then free-traders squall when it’s suggested goods coming in from those places without those costs have tariffs imposed.
It’s a silly and inequitable system.
No.
The problem with economics and pay today is that those who are paid well strongly tend to siphon wealth from the economy, not contribute to it.
Those who operate at a net fiscal loss to society at large include:
> Government (local, state, federal) employees
> Law
> Economists
> “The disabled”
> And, increasingly, technology
Many of those employed in the fields above make decent money.
If you insist on unionization, then those producing the wealth should get paid more than those who do not.
This isn’t the 1970s.
You obviously have never worked in a factory or ever made anything.
Tool and die makers?
Floor engineers?
RF engineers?
Bread board technicians?
Basically can name their price.
And no waiting behind some idiot with union seniority before getting promoted.
*******
Without unions, labor has little bargaining power
Well said Neuromance. We have very little union participation in the United States any more. My father was fond of saying, “Any company that has employees who unionize probably deserves it.” The essence of what he was getting at is there is a pendulum of power between labor and owners that swings back and forth.
The interesting thing to see lately is the teacher strikes in red states (Colorado, Arizona, W. Virginia, Kentucky, and Oklahoma. These strikes are testament to the disgruntled nature of non-union teachers who have endured stagnant wages and outright funding cuts for a long time. You aren’t paid what you are worth, you are paid what you negotiate. Unions help ensure that negotiation can get you what you are worth. In some cases, the pendulum swings too far and they become excessive and extract more than can be justifiable in terms of production.
When an organization (government, government contractor, private company) is able to generate a cash flow, someone has to decide how to divvy it up. How does he or she decide that?
Lots of factors come into play. There are of course market forces, such as the relative scarcity or abundance of specialized skills that come from training and education. But there are also asymmetries of power too: many workers are ill-equipped to bargain or hold-out for a higher wage in exchange for their time because of the expediency of meeting basic needs (e.g. clothing, food, shelter, etc.). We talk about monopoly forces, but also of monopsony, whereby a large employer with little competition in the area can basically dictate wages to surrounding residents because they are effectively the only game in town, and relocating is cost-prohibitive or is too expensive.
A lot of the playing field can be equalized by creating a greater savings base for all individuals. If they are truly free to turn down a labor arrangement that does not suit them, or to move to somewhere more favorable, then the market starts to work better. But in the meantime, minimum wage laws and safety and labor regulations can be necessary when the balance of power shifts too far in one direction. There are of course instances (like France currently, or Germany pre-Schroder reforms) where there are too many protections that serve as a hindrance to job-creation.
relocating is cost-prohibitive or is too expensive…to move to somewhere more favorable
How housing bubbles interfere massively with worker compensation.
In tech, in some sectors, there are very few with the required skillset, so they can command high salaries. BUT, in fields where many people have the requisite skillset, and can be easily replaced, they have little bargaining power. Without a union, they are going to get a very poor deal.
That raises the question…how DO you make money hand over fist using employees with no special skills that can easily be replaced if there is no union to prevent it? Sounds like a unique situation that may have only been true for a unique time in history. There may no longer be “hand over fist” levels of money to pay them.
I’ve long ago concluded that many people just cannot stand prosperity and that they will do whatever it takes to destroy whatever prosperity they happen to obtain.”
Wrong. They love the prosperity. What they don’t love is not saving face.
The West Coast just isn’t what it used to be:
https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/after-14-years-ive-had-it-im-leaving-seattle/
“I believe strongly that it is not compassionate to leave people who are unable or unwilling to care for themselves to suffer and die on the street. Because many (but certainly not all) homeless people struggle with mental illness or drug addiction, I suggested that Seattle find a way to make it easier to provide treatment to these troubled souls — involuntarily, if need be. It could literally save their lives.”
The author is full of it, Apt 101. He isn’t compassionate in the least. He moved to Seattle to make serious money, “invest” and live the life. He and his fellow liberals did just that.
Now that he sees the downside of massive, unearned windfalls, he’s planning to jump ship.
He’s exactly the type of equity locust that will move on, destroying his next location as well. Yet, he’s too dull to comprehend it.
He privatized his gains just fine. What he and his fellow metro Seattle residents didn’t do is socialize the risks effectively enough.
Snowflakes vote and support progressives and socialists and are shocked when they get kicked in the face with socialism.
And then move to more conservative areas (whom they used to refer as Nazis and bitter clingers) to “escape.”
And then start voting for progressives and socialists again…
Funny how Seattle enacted a $15 minimum wage a whole back, yet the number of homeless keeps increasing.
Why is that so?
Seattle’s wealthy is very flush with money, yet votes heavily Democrat.
Why is that so?
The gap between the wealthy and the poor is rapidly widening in Seattle.
Why is that so?
“Former foster son sues ex-Mayor Ed Murray and Seattle”
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/former-foster-son-sues-ex-mayor-ed-murray-and-seattle-claiming-defamation/
“Ed Murray’s former foster son sued the city of Seattle and its ex-mayor on Friday, claiming Murray improperly used the city’s highest office to defame him and other men who separately accused Murray of decades-old child sexual abuse during a scandal last year that forced Murray to step down.”
Tax Freedom Day this year is May 7, 2018. One day earlier than 2017.
Tax Freedom Day in 1979 was April 22.
https://taxfoundation.org/tax-freedom-day-2014-data-tables/
What went wrong?
DJT
DJT hasn’t been here long enough to blame for Tax Freedom Day.
But if you want to fault him for enforcing immigration limits “tomorrow” then be my guest.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/05/05/caravan-travelers-seeking-asylum-cross-us-mexico-border.html
For my good friend Bobbie.
Vancouver, Canada Housing Demand Collapses 27% YOY As Inventory Skyrockets 20% As Sinking China Economy Slams British Columbia
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/05/02/vancouver-real-estate-rebgv_a_23425660/
Bubble top noted in Latin sovereign debt…three months ago.
Markets
The Frantic Pace of Latin American Bond Sales Looks Set to Fade
By Aline Oyamada
and Will Mathis
February 20, 2018, 7:27 AM PST
- Citigroup, Itau BBA see drop in volume in 2018 amid election
- Latin American issuers borrowed $37 billion in January alonemarkets
The Frantic Pace of Latin American Bond Sales Looks Set to Fade
By Aline Oyamada
and Will Mathis
February 20, 2018, 7:27 AM PST
Latin America borrowed the most on record last month, squeezing the last juice from an era of historically low interest rates. The pace is all but certain to slow as yields rise and investors contemplate presidential elections in three of the region’s largest economies.
Companies and governments announced sales of $37 billion in bonds in January after tapping markets for a two-decade high of $240 billion last year. Yet global yields have already marched higher as markets price in more tightening this year from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Voters go to the polls in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia from May through October, stoking political uncertainty that could lead investors to demand bigger premiums and companies to delay borrowing plans.
…
A related article …
“Argentina raises interest rates to 40 percent.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-44001450
Its bonds just might be a good contrarian play. Oil prices are heading up and Argentina has a lot of shale oil, not profitable at these levels but if you get in the $90 plus range might be very viable. The people that bought the debt from Puerto Rico have seen their investment more than double in less than a year. It is not easy being a contrarian but it is often profitable.
I dont think you know what the word “investment” means…
Hint. It doesn’t mean gambling
Notice he uses the words “game” and “play” almost exclusively. He seems to be a degenerate gambler by nature.
The difference between investment and gambling is calculated risk. You can be sure before the large firms invested in those bonds a great deal of expensive research was done. I know what investment means, I do not think you really do. It is by definition a calculated risk. Unfortunately today anything without risk like savings accounts pay less than inflation so Mr. Banker wins and you lose. The stock market has always involved risk and so has buying bonds, there are ways to hedge risk but it is always there. It always has required examining the upside gain vs the downside risk. Some people have always called investing in the stock market gambling, but over the long run it has exceeded the returns of saving money. My objection is the government has forced people like you that have no risk tolerance into investments when they really just want to save, but due to financial repression must take risk to exceed inflation. It is particularly hard on the elderly who should not be investing but should just be saving in 100 percent protected products
“It is particularly hard on the elderly who should not be investing but should just be saving in 100 percent protected products.”
That includes my parents, who are approaching their tenth decade. The Fed’s redistribution of wealth from savers to degenerate gamblers through interest rate repression robbed them of safe options for insured returns, like CDs and Treasurys, that were available to preceding generations of retirees. Savers took it in the groin under the Bernanke-Yellen Fed low yield regime.
My retirement is pretty much cash and how long will it last. Looks good on paper. Should I not be able to earn much with my art in the meantime, as life expectancy age approaches I will save that last $10K for an adventure that will give me the heart attack I’ll deserve and leave my descendants snickering at the memorial service.
How do you factor in or hedge default risk, given how often Argentina has gone there before?
I think you think default means no payment but that is not how it works in practice. In worse cases the bonds might pay back 60 cents on the dollar. This really sucks if you paid full price for the bonds. However, that tends to be the unconnected Little guy who was put into the bonds by his or her 401k manager. Some how the politically well connected knew to buy the bonds when they were at 30 cents on the dollar and have doubled their money in one year. The Globalists on both side of the equation are doing well. In Argentina they are getting the missing 40 cents and the New York Bankers are getting most of the 30 cent move. The workers probably had their 401 managers sell them out at 30 cents to the New York bankers. Funny how that all worked out.
If you think what I said if far fetched look at this story:
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2018/04/puerto-rico-debt-bonds-hurricane-maria
Have bond holders already forgotten what happened last time in Latin America?
This time is different.
Barn door left open
All of the horses have fled
Hurry, shut the door
Investing #MarketMoves
May 3, 2018 @ 09:00 AM
It Might Be Time To Get Out Of Argentina
Kenneth Rapoza, Contributor
- It is time to get out of Argentina and sali corriendo.
- The peso started the year at 18.40 to the dollar. It broke 21 on Thursday.
President of Argentina Mauricio Macri looks on during the first day of the official visit of the president of Spain to Buenos Aires at Casa Rosada on April 9, 2018 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. (Photo by Amilcar Orfali/Getty Images)
Argentina looked good for emerging market bond lords and distressed asset investors in late 2017. Everyone believed in the government of Mauricio Macri. He was doing the right thing. Argentina was going to come back, and indeed was already returning to the capital markets with welcoming arms. The reception now is getting cold. If not, it should be, and will be soon enough.
“I have seen all of this play out before: the government is using the central bank reserves to artificially inflate the peso and we have pesky high inflation,” says Fernando Pertini, chief financial advisor with Millenia Asset Management, headquartered in Costa Rica. “Argentina’s economic team looks lost,” he says.
…
Mexico appears poised to elect a hard core socialist, who is threatening to expropriate industry after industry.
I remember the last time Mexico went through this kind of BS. Inflation was over 50%. General Motors de Mexico had a crippling nearly year long strike (in Mexico it’s illegal to hire replacement workers). It is told that the President of GM called the Mexican President and said that unless the strike was resolved that GM would pull out of Mexico.
This was back in the days when you couldn’t import cars into Mexico. If you wanted a car, you had to buy one built there. GM, Ford. Chrysler, VW, Renault and Nissan were the only choices. There was a good chance that if the strike wasn’t resolved that other automakers would have also abandoned Mexico, as none appeared to be making any money there and were also facing strikes.
Anyway, word is that the strike was quickly resolved.
Note that there are enough Venezuelans now fleeing the country that Columbia and northern Brazil are under considerable economic and social strain.
Coming soon to the Arizona, Texas, New Mexico and California near you.
Or when the mainstream media is telling you to get out it is because their masters want to buy assets up cheap, yes the horses are already out.
Off topic but worth viewing if Mr. Jones will allow, President Trump’s remarks at the NRA Annual Leadership Forum in Dallas, TX, recorded yesterday:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?444682-2/president-trump-addresses-nras-annual-leadership-forum
https://nypost.com/2018/04/25/ex-new-yorkers-are-flocking-to-this-midwest-sanctuary/
20 to 30% - eat it, locals.
Yep. Screw the locals.
It’s the Equity Locust way.
Someone on this board needs to adopt “Equity Locust” as their handle.
Mr Banker and Equity Locust can be the best of friends.
Seems like a bad move on the $455,000, 1,875-square-foot shack but that samich is a home run. Now if you will excuse me I’m hungry.
“Today, with two busy Fox locations and a third in the works, they’re paying off a gorgeous $455,000, 1,875-square-foot, three-bedroom, 1½-bathroom house, also in German Village, largely thanks to Culley’s runaway hit egg sandwich: a square of souffléd egg, melty Swiss cheese, candied bacon, arugula and Dijon cream sauce within a perfectly toasted, chewy ciabatta. The menu item ($7) has attracted a following of feverish fans.”
“When we did the business plan, I figured we would sell 20 a day and added it on at the last minute,” she says. “We sell 400 a day at each location, and it’s paying for the mortgage on this house.”
“They’ve purchased numerous properties, ranging in price from $59,000 to $220,000…
They rent three others, spread across several neighborhoods, out on Airbnb.
Houses in “a historic district like German Village are going for 20 to 30 percent more than about three years ago,” he says, “which is an incredible clip for the middle of flyover country.”
I’m sure their barely-above-minimum-wage employees will be thrilled to know that expensive egg sandwich is paying for their bosses’ ridiculously overpriced shack and other real estate “investments”, while at the same time creating a higher cost of living for all the service industry workers in the region.
And then business owners wonder why there is so much resentment against them and they complain about unionization and accuse anyone who questions any of what’s going on as “socialists”.
It’s often the same group of people who both own local businesses and multiple pieces of real estate, and who do everything in their power to drive up the cost of living.
Their attitude is basically, “I’ve got mine. F everyone else. They just need to work harder, work more hours, and learn to live on less.”
Thirty years ago I met a factory worker who made a substantial side income at work selling delicious home made tortilla wraps to his co-workers for lunch. He took orders ahead of time and his wife had all she could do to keep up with the work load.
Total non sequitur. Did you even get the point of any of this?
And these days if someone tried that, they’d have the local health department all over them. In most locales, you cannot sell foods made in your home kitchen.
Over 15 years ago at the tech company I was at the mailroom guy’s wife was making breakfast burritos and he was selling them at work in the same kind of thing. Management expressed reservations. He moved the operation to his car instead of completely stopping. They fired him.
Albany, OR Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As Chinese Speculators Walk Away From Mortgages
https://www.movoto.com/albany-or/market-trends/
I drive through Albany about twice a week and just can’t put my finger on what going on in that town. Lots of traffic, activity and people racing around. Then I drive through Corvallis and it just seems so much calmer and clean. I don’t see too many for sale signs in either areas.
“I don’t see too many for sale signs in either areas.”
Record low demand combined with the fact everyone is underwater.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
The Financial Times
Bank stress tests
Greek banks face €15.5bn hit under stress tests
Three out of four lenders would have failed under ECB’s 2015 rules
…
Would you buy a house built on the slopes of an active volcano?
Lovely place to visit, but no thanks to owning a house that might suddenly be swallowed and incinerated in a river of lava.
Amazed to see a local station publish a non-cheerleading, “just the facts” article on the RE market in Las Vegas for the last 10-12 years.
HISTORY: A look at the housing bubble burst and long-term impact on Las Vegas, May 1, 2018, KTNV ABC13 Action News
But, but…new hockey team! And people don’t really mind paying parking and resort fees!
Fewer people are visiting Las Vegas. One insider thinks hotel resort and parking fees are to blame, May 02, 2018
They’ve already removed the comments. People do mind.
Easy credit [was/is] the primary cause of the RE bubble.
“1 In 5 Canadian Homeowners Commits Mortgage Fraud, Says Top Broker”
https://betterdwelling.com/1-in-5-canadian-homeowners-commits-mortgage-fraud-says-top-broker/
…. meaning double that amount or more but 40% of mortgages being toxic still doesn’t have the US beat.
What’s your take Bob?
“Creating Wealth” Through Debt: the West’s Finance-Capitalist Road
https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/05/04/creating-wealth-through-debt-the-wests-finance-capitalist-road/
“Volumes II and III of Marx’s Capital describe how debt grows exponentially, burdening the economy with carrying charges. This overhead is subjecting today’s Western finance-capitalist economies to austerity, shrinking living standards and capital investment while increasing their cost of living and doing business. That is the main reason why they are losing their export markets and becoming de-industrialized.”
Would this be a good time to sell my vintage Gibson accoustic guitar, now that the company has gone bankrupt?
Former Gibson employees share story of guitar company’s financial fall
by Samantha Singer
Tuesday, May 1st 2018
(Fox 17 News)
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The most iconic guitar company in the world, Gibson Brands LLC, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Tuesday.
Gibson is based in Nashville, and the guitar maker has faced debt for years.
Gibson guitars are everywhere. The most well-known artists have played Gibsons, and it’s not difficult to find musicians playing Gibsons in all the honky tonks on lower Broadway.
Former Gibson employees gave Fox 17 News insight into how this powerhouse guitar company managed to hit rock bottom after more than 100 years in business.
Walter Carter owns Carter Vintage Guitars in Nashville. Carter is also Gibson’s former editorial director and wrote the book ‘Gibson Guitars 100 Years of An American Icon.’
“It’s one of the strongest brands in any field,” Carter said.
But the most premier guitar builder in the world has struggled with financial problems and just filed for bankruptcy.
…
That doesn’t mean they will stop production.
“Banks are working to woo new doctors into home mortgages”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/04/why-mortgage-lenders-are-targeting-doctors.html
Haven’t we discussed doctors and those in that business have the least sense when it comes to money? It doesn’t mean they’re bad people, just dumb.
It doesn’t mean they’re bad people, just dumb.
I knew an MD who was also a vet. When he bought his first home ca. 1980, he did not even investigate a VA loan beyond the fine print in the VA papers saying the VA would only guarantee a small part of the loan, nowhere near the full amount he was to pay. He interpreted that to mean he would not qualify for a VA loan. He did not ask the VA. At the time, the banks making VA loans considered the relative small VA guarantee as good as a guarantee for the entire loan. He didn’t apply for a VA loan. I did.
I know a herd of MDs and specialists and 99% of them are always getting burned. They’re a surprise special class of money losing fools.
It’s not surprising that MDs and dentists lose money or get bad deals on housing. They specialize intensely on something very narrow, which crowds out time for being skilled in other areas. Just because you are extremely specialized in one area doesn’t mean it will necessarily transfer over to another.
Made we could bring back the failed WPA. It might help them.
They specialize intensely on something very narrow, which crowds out time for being skilled in other areas
It’s so true. Back in NY I knew two neurologists, both mothers of my kid’s classmates at a Montessori school (not a particular fan of that method but there was no way I was going to send my high-strung Aspie daughter to a regular middle school - her grammar school principal had me on speed dial). They amazed me. So smart, but lacking in broad knowledge, everyday smarts.
They specialize intensely on something very narrow, which crowds out time for being skilled in other areas.
Yet also seems to give them a very high level of false confidence in fields other than their specialty. Usually I like experts because experts are confident and experienced enough to be realistic and comfortable admitting what they are not experts at. I keep hearing that medical people are exceptions to that.
So McCain regrets picking Palin. It is the best thing politically that globalist ever did for our country. He picked her just to get non-globalists conservatives to vote for him and he thought she would just be on the sidelines while he opened the borders and pushed the globalists agenda. Instead her views took off while he lost his election. She was a major force promoting the tea party which directly led to Trump and his anti-globalists agenda. It is ironic McCain paved the way for the Trump election. Of course, he regrets picking her. Just like Soros who supported both Obama and McCain throughout their careers regrets supporting Obama over McCain in the 2008 election. McCain would have been able politically to get amnesty passed and would not have galvanized opposition to globalism like Obama did. The 2008 stock crash still does not pass the smell test. Of course, the market was a house of cards. However, why did the PPT take a vacation just months before the election? Could it be that the globalists needed the stock crash to ensure the Obama election since prior to it occurring McCain was a head in the polls? I think they thought it would be like 1987, major stock crash but very little impact on the economy. Then, Obama could have presided over a booming economy. They missed the impact of the housing bubble collapse because the guardians of the universe underestimated the amount of fraud in the liar loans. Who would have thought that those illegals buying homes in California could be as crooked as the .1 percent?
The The Real Cause Of The Crisis Was OTC Derivatives
http://www.businessinsider.com/bubble-derivatives-otc-2010-5
“Economic bubbles are not recognized by those inside of them, and the entire Western world has become quietly trapped inside the largest economic bubble in history. The global financial crisis that began in 2008 has been attributed to sub-prime mortgage lending and mortgage backed securities (MBSs), such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which were revealed as toxic assets. While the root cause of the financial crisis is assumed to have been the residential real estate asset price bubble, the underlying systemic risk, and the primary reason for the “too big to fail” doctrine whereby governments were compelled to save financial institutions at any cost, lies in over the counter (OTC) derivatives. The suspension of the US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) mark-to-market rule in 2009 preserved the value of bank balance sheets, i.e., of their mortgage portfolios, but what was of far greater importance was that it prevented triggering the conditions of thousands of OTC derivatives contracts, such as credit default swaps (CDS), that would have wiped out virtually all of the largest banking institutions in the world.”
It’s kind of amusing to watch the Hovnanian and McClatchy CDS manipulation going on that is making both of them money as they strategically become orphaned CDSs. Those two cases threaten to wipe out the CDS market functioning in and of themselves.
the CDS market
I still don’t get the point of the CDS market. I understand that once the contracts were created, they had a binding effect on other institutions. But what was the benefit of the contracts being made in the first place?
nstitutions. But what was the benefit of the contracts being made in the first place?
I suppose if you were bullish about the long-term health of investigative journalism (McClatchy) and about housing (Hovnanian), but wanted to hedge your bet, you could purchase a CDS as a hedge on your investment if, for instance, you were a bond holder of these institutions.
So McCain regrets picking Palin. It is the best thing politically that globalist ever did for our country.
Hear hear. Sure she had some flaws. But she was the first to really represent the deplorables in a LONG time. I’ll always appreciate her for that. Lots of other people thought “those people” should not have any representation on the national stage.
‘I’ve had cases where this person exists, but they’ve gone back to China,’ Peters says. ‘I can sometimes spend five to 10 thousand dollars trying to track that person down.’
Hmmm…sounds like a potential job opportunity in China.