It Is A Fact That Oversupply Creates Lower Prices
A report from Bloomberg. “Freddie Mac has quietly started extending credit to nonbanks that issue mortgages, a move it says will help the companies maintain access to a crucial stockpile of cash if their home loans go sour. But critics say the financing could create an unfair market advantage that allows preferred lenders to muscle out competitors. The new Freddie credit lines, which haven’t been publicly announced, are meant to support nonbanks’ mortgage-servicing operations. That’s the lucrative business of managing a home loan after it’s been issued.”
“Although banks dominated mortgage lending immediately after the 2008 financial crisis, now they are facing stiff competition from companies such as Quicken Loans, Freedom Mortgage, LoanDepot and Caliber Home Loans. Nonbanks issued nearly half of mortgages sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie in 2016, compared with 8% a decade ago.”
“Last month, authors from the Federal Reserve and the University of California at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business wrote that the nonbank sector ‘in aggregate appears to have minimal resources to bring to bear in a stress scenario.’”
“Nancy Wallace, a Berkeley professor and one of the paper’s authors, said nonbanks are undercapitalized and rely too much on borrowed money. Being able to access credit lines from Freddie or Fannie wouldn’t solve that problem, she said. ‘Fannie and Freddie should not be in the business of that kind of lending,’ Wallace said.”
“The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates Fannie and Freddie, approved Freddie’s request to provide financing to nonbanks. In its list of 2018 goals for the companies, the FHFA said they should find ways to support mortgage servicing liquidity.”
From The Real Deal in Florida. “Since the recession, the mortgage landscape in the Miami metro area and across the country has changed drastically. Nonbank financial institutions, including giants like Quicken Loans and LoanDepot, originated 48.3 percent all mortgages in the U.S. in 2016, up from 30 percent in 2012, according to researchers from the Federal Reserve Board and the University of California, Berkeley. The growth of these mortgage companies in South Florida, a place that was the epicenter of the subprime mortgage meltdown, is raising some concerns about the risks of moving mortgages to a less regulated corner of the market.”
“In South Florida, the changing of the guard in the mortgage world was best captured by a January 2016 announcement from Miami Lakes-based BankUnited. BankUnited, the area’s largest bank by assets, said it would no longer be writing residential mortgages, citing low profit margins and lack of scale. ‘We can’t make money in the business,’ said BankUnited CEO John Kanas in a conference call with analysts at the time.”
“But while nonbank lending platforms appear to provide easier access to getting a mortgage or refinancing, the paper by researchers from the Federal Reserve Board and UC Berkeley said these alternative lenders could face liquidity risks and have fewer safeguards to protect themselves if borrowers began defaulting on their payments. ‘The typical nonbank has few resources with which to weather these shocks,’ the paper stated.”
“A nonbank failure could be particularly harmful to low-income borrowers, according to the researchers. That’s because those alternative lenders now account for roughly 75 percent of mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration or the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. ‘Because this [nonbank lender] is one step removed from the banks it is not getting the regulatory scrutiny or understanding that it would otherwise,’ said Marcus Stanley, policy director of Americans for Financial Reform, a nonprofit advocacy group.”
From News 3 Las Vegas in Nevada. “If you’re in the market for a new home, you’ve noticed that the housing market is on fire. Multiple offers are the norm. We’ve identified the top five hottest zip codes in the valley, but as you’ll soon see, sellers are cashing in elsewhere. Joe Limon is on the hunt for a house. ‘The price of my house went up so that’s why I’m selling it to get something else,’ says Limon.”
The Argus Leader in South Dakota. “Sioux Falls is short on homes for sale. Really short. Amy Stockberger knows this better than most. She’s a Realtor on the hunt for homeowners interested in selling, in what is a hot, hot seller’s market. So Stockberger is taking to the skies. Literally. This weekend she rented a plane and pilot to fly a 3,000-square-foot banner over select parts of Sioux Falls. You might have seen it. It had 15-foot-high letters. The message: ‘We sell your home for more.’”
From the Elk Grove News in California. “After recent articles on Elk Grove News (EGN) regarding the Elk Grove Sphere of Influence (SOI) application before LAFCo, and the rise in the Elk Grove real estate market, the question now becomes: Will the Elk Grove City Council guide real estate property values back into another decline? As reported on EGN, Elk Grove is currently a seller’s market which is great considering that was not the case years ago. Good news for homeowners right now. However, what happens when the next housing boom in the Southeast Policy Area (SEPA) and the SOI hits? Or worse, when the next housing crash hits which economic theorists say is inevitable?”
“Recall thousands of Elk Grove homeowners were devastated by the housing market crash with foreclosures everywhere and we saw a significant rise of rental properties aka pot houses. Shouldn’t we learn from the past in planning future massive housing projects? By the looks of it, the Elk Grove City Council clearly has not. And want to bet the Elk Grove City Council, led by Pat Hume, will fast-track the SOI into an annexation vote so that more housing projects can be built in record time.”
“So many times, we have seen housing developers get in and get out, leaving a trail of Mello Roos taxes behind them. The writing is on the wall, it will happen again as Elk Grove is ripe for the picking and there is no one on the Elk Grove City Council who will get in their way.”
“If one council member had the courage to speak up, having learned from their past mistakes, keeping their constituents’ property values in mind, works to negotiate a fine balance between supply and demand to ensure home values continue to rise and phase in new housing slowly, that council member would immediately be labeled ‘anti-growth’ and soon, circa 2006, those same developers would form independent expenditure committees and oust that incumbent.”
“Housing developers are very good at playing the waiting game. Problem is developers appear to have bounced back from the housing crash with bigger plans for Elk Grove, more than ever before, acquiring vast areas of land in the SOI. With that, the developers, with the council members in tow, will suck voters in with their fancy wording on annexation of ‘long-term stewardship’ and ‘adding value’ to existing homes in Elk Grove. However, it is a fact that oversupply often creates lower prices for existing housing.”
From the East End Beacon in New York. “With a decision possible on the fate of more than 1,600 acres of land at the Enterprise Park at Calverton (EPCAL) as early as next week, environmental groups are urging the Town of Riverhead to not approve a deal to sell the property to a group of developers. ‘We are prepared to take further action should this deal be approved,’ said Rex Farr, a farmer and member of the Coalition Against EPCAL Housing (CAEH), a group that coalesced last year around preventing the industrial property from being used for housing, but has since expanded its concerns over the proposed CAT deal.”
“Mark Haubner of the North Fork Environmental Council decried the town’s development history, pointing out Riverhead’s historic lack of attention to the environment. ‘Riverhead has a glut of retail stores,’ he said. ‘They add nothing to our overall happiness.’”
“Bob DeLuca, of Group for the East End, pointed out that the $40 million price tag for the property is ‘what someone pays for a house in Sagaponack,’ and described the town’s philosophy as ’someone wants to give us a pile of money for this property and we should take it.’ Mr. DeLuca added that, generations from now, no one will remember what the town got for this paycheck. ‘You can’t give this property away,’ he said. ‘You’ll never get it back.’”
‘Problem is developers appear to have bounced back from the housing crash with bigger plans for Elk Grove, more than ever before, acquiring vast areas of land’
But, shortage?
No shortage of housing in Denver area.
Broomfield, CO Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/broomfield-co/market-trends/
Elk Grove is a really well planned suburban town, but the yo-yo effect of housing-on/housing-off is devastating. There is a shortage of inventory for sale now and of course in 2022 there will be a glut and prices will drop and people will be foreclosed.
What is the answer to all this foolishness? I have no idea.
What is the answer to all this foolishness? I have no idea.
It’s pretty simple. But it would prevent making money off the bubbles.
I am listening…….
You know it as well as I do. Government should get out of the business of supporting prices and trying to motivate people to buy.
‘Bob DeLuca, of Group for the East End, pointed out that the $40 million price tag for the property is ‘what someone pays for a house in Sagaponack,’ and described the town’s philosophy as ’someone wants to give us a pile of money for this property and we should take it.’ Mr. DeLuca added that, generations from now, no one will remember what the town got for this paycheck. ‘You can’t give this property away,’ he said’
Click!
“He also wondered aloud “how the sale went from 600 acres to 1,600 acres with the same price tag” of $40 million.
“Mr. Walter had included 1,000 acres of protected grasslands in the sale in what he said was an attempt to save the town the maintenance costs associated with that property.”
“generations from now, no one will remember…” that the grassland was protected.
I’m pretty sure one of the farmers would be glad to keep the grass down the old fashion way and save the town $100,000 of mowing fees.
Realtors are liars.
Zzzzz…
I think DeLuca means that the town SHOULDN’T sell the property for $40 million to developers who will likely ruin the land. Not that the price tag was too low. I’d bet money that the developers would build luxury condos to house foreign laundry but no actual people. I don’t blame the locals for thinking that NO price is high enough.
Well, plus it’s what someone pays for a house in Sagaponack.
The local homemoaners wouldn’t care at all about building housing for foreign money launderers, as that would contribute to rising prices. Their whole thing is they don’t want prices to go down, whereas the locals who are renters would be thrilled if that happened.
Elk Grove: What the heck is a “sphere of influence application”?
Rules regarding a city expanding into county areas as they grow. There are many interests involved and they all need a forum where they may be heard.
http://www.saclafco.org/Pages/default.aspx
Our Goals
Ensure the orderly formation of local governmental agencies
Preserve agricultural and open space lands
Discourage sprawl
Mel Watt is truly obama’s greatest legacy
*******
A report from Bloomberg. “Freddie Mac has quietly started extending credit to nonbanks that issue mortgages, a move it says will help the companies maintain access to a crucial stockpile of cash if their home loans go sour. But critics say the financing could create an unfair market advantage that allows preferred lenders to muscle out competitors. The new Freddie credit lines, which haven’t been publicly announced, are meant to support nonbanks’ mortgage-servicing operations. That’s the lucrative business of managing a home loan after it’s been issued.”
Our founding fathers must be turning in their graves.
Email I receive every Wednesday from a local mortgage broker. 40 year interest only loans with up to 90% ltv?
Freddie mac changes: They will allow 2-unit primary residence up to 85% LTV and second home revised max LTV up to 90%. NICE!
Did you know? The US Treasury Department as it prepares to take steps to cover a rapidly growing deficit. The government is increasing long-term debt to be auctioned this quarter to $73 billion, and is getting ready to introduce a two-month bill. Oh my.. really?
Specialty product: Get this, on a jumbo loan, we can do. 30-year fixed, 40-year fixed, 7/1, 10/1 and Interest only feature on the 10/1. Yup We can~! (that’s a technical term)
Interest-only feature on the 10/1? Do tell…
Why liberals/progressives love bigger and bigger government.
++++
Eric Schneiderman’s Legalized Shakedowns
American Thinker | 9 May, 2018 | Gavin Wax
Strangely enough, until very recently, few New Yorkers, save for Donald Trump in a forewarning tweet, could tell you the name of the far more powerful criminal family that terrorized our streets and wallets.
What was the Schneiderman Outfit? It was a $5-billion operation, whose extortion and racketeering sent many honest New Yorkers and their businesses into hiding down in Florida or North Carolina.
The accused sexual abuser, alcoholic, and hypocrite Schneiderman, the sort of man Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and many other prominent Democrats once heralded as “a fighter on behalf of women,” originally became notorious not for running an actual crime family, but something very close to that: the use of targeted and politically motivated criminal investigations against numerous publicly traded New York businesses and their employees. The so-called Martin Act allowed “lightweight” Schneiderman to launch such investigations without ever having to prove intent, knowledge of wrongdoing, or even evidence of fraud. He simply, with a Thanos-like snap of his fingers, brought the full weight of the New York “injustice” system upon any business he or his office deemed to be “bad guys” (oh, the irony).
No other piece of legislation in the 50 states, the federal government, or even in many modern Western democracies comes anywhere close to the level of power and discretion that New York’s Martin Act granted to Eric Schneiderman.
To put this in perspective, the attorney general’s office has collected an inordinate amount of funds, which, if it were a private corporation, would make it the size of Blackstone or Yahoo, and it would boast a number of attorneys equal to that of Sullivan & Cromwell.
Everyone, big or small, is ultimately forced into a settlement.
Moral high ground.
Gillibrand 2020 campaign poster:
https://i.imgur.com/8w6RLRy.jpg
Ironic indeed, and here I was the other day speaking up for due process.
‘If one council member had the courage to speak up, having learned from their past mistakes, keeping their constituents’ property values in mind, works to negotiate a fine balance between supply and demand to ensure home values continue to rise’
See, all this talk out of California is BS. They will wail and moan year after year about affordable shacks when they are really greedy asshats.
I saw a video where Jerry Brown basically said that everyone who’s bailing out of California, both individuals and businesses, are losers, because “smart people can make it work”. He also claimed that California’s taxes and regulations are reasonable (hence why smart people can make it work).
That said, so far the exodus is still a trickle, smaller than the number of births. It will be interesting to see how Brown spins things if that trickle becomes a torrent, say if the net outflow was more than a million and net population growth actually becomes negative.
In 2017 it only grew by about 240,000, so it’s possible that it could fall into negative territory this or next year.
This formerly great state has gone so far left that Feinstein is seen as too establishment now.
My exodus is already baked in, just a matter of time.
Feinstein’s problem is the same one Boxer had: neither is a POC. Boxer was replaced by Kamala Harris and Feinstein will be replaced by a Hispanic whose name escapes me at the moment.
We visited with some friends during our San Diego trip. They’re a few years from collecting Social Security and are planning on bailing out, selling the house and moving to an “oil city”. In case you’re wondering, they’re white.
Brown meant “smart” in the way the sociopathic biz types apply the word to things that are quite dumb and yet sold to/gobbled up by the sheeple. See: smart water, smart car, smart phone, smart meter, etc.
I blame the phrase smarty pants for kicking off the whole trend. It was always a criticism that you didnt go along like a good little sheep.
“so far the exodus is still a trickle, smaller than the number of births.”
Exiting: 1 Fifty year old retired State Worker with Full Pension and Benefits for Life
Entering: 1 Anchor Baby eligible for Full Benefits
Exiting: 1 Fifty year old retired State Worker with Full Pension and Benefits for Life
Entering: 1 Anchor Baby eligible for Full Benefits
Exiting: 1 Fifty year old retired State Worker with Full Pension and Benefits for Life
Entering: 1 Anchor Baby eligible for Full Benefits
etc.
with Full Pension and Benefits for Life
Until Jerry Brown runs out of other people’s money to spend.
Record high crime, record high unemployment…. Yep. California is such a great place everyone want to live there.
“Roughly 5 Million People Left California In The Last Decade”
http://www.sacbee.com/site-services/databases/article32679753.html
While net migration was -1 million during that time, California’s population grew from 35.25M to 38.35M, a net growth of just over six million
https://www.statista.com/statistics/206097/resident-population-in-california/
errata: it grew from 32.25 million, not 35.25
Wouldn’t that be an erratum?
Incorrect.
Per the article; “a net population loss of more than 1 million people.”
Per the last sentence in the article you cited:
Despite the loss of residents to other states, California continued to grow during the last decade because of natural increase - more births than deaths - and foreign migration.
It’s true, California continues to have net outflow migration. But it still grows because of immigration and births (e.g. births being higher than deaths).
I doubt he actually reads the articles he quotes.
“…(e.g. births being higher than deaths)…”
Since the seventies, the demographic trend in the Western Hemisphere is fewer births (educated women) and longer lifespans (medical technology).
As for natural increase, if young native Californians decide to form their own households, while their parents remain in occupancy of their childhood homes, where can they go given the housing shortage in the coastal areas?
The Inland Empire, for a three hour commute, a housing unit near where they live, at 70 percent of their income, or outta there.
“Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded.”
Yes, people are leaving and CA demographics will probably turn and go negative if net migration outflow starts to pick up even further coupled with a higher death rate from boomers. But we’re just not there yet, though we could be on the precipice.
“…..by 2030, California’s population is projected to reach 44.1 million. Annual growth rates are expected to be just
under 1 percent, similar to growth experienced in the first decade of this century…..”
Public Policy Institute of California
Maybe. Just under 1% is within the margin of error. A lot of that growth is dependent on assumptions. For instance, we’ve assumed that life expectancy will increase modestly, however we have had declining life expectancy in the US for the past 2 years. If that continues, any growth extrapolation will need to be revisited.
“Roughly 5 Million People Left California In The Last Decade”
http://www.sacbee.com/site-services/databases/article32679753.html
“….They will wail and moan year after year about affordable shacks when they are really greedy asshats….”
I thought the end result of all this was a forecast that housing prices would collapse. Isn’t that what everyone wants, a free house? What’s the problem?
I don’t recall the blog owner saying that ever.
Could it be you’re lying again?
‘The typical nonbank has few resources with which to weather these shocks,’ the paper stated.’
Fewer? How about none? Quicken probably rents the furniture.
‘A nonbank failure could be particularly harmful to low-income borrowers, according to the researchers. That’s because those alternative lenders now account for roughly 75 percent of mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration or the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. ‘Because this [nonbank lender] is one step removed from the banks it is not getting the regulatory scrutiny or understanding that it would otherwise’
Harmful to the borrowers? How about the people who get to pay for this crack pot scheme?
‘not getting the regulatory scrutiny’
Hmm, but we have people here telling us all the time how great loans are and Senator Running Deer and all. Even as defaults have exploded in oh so hot Florida and Dallas/Austin. And what did the report just say? It’s mostly FHA originated since 2014, when Mel Watt opened the flood gates.
Can non-banks package up loans into MBS just like real banks?
If they can, then it would seem to me that we (us taxpayers) are going to be left holding the bag just like 10 years ago.
I think it’s the GSE’s that do that. They never stopped doing it. From what I’ve read, the GSE’s can get off the hook if Quicken doesn’t follow guidelines. But then who’s stuck? Quicken doesn’t have any money. Is it the entities buying the MBS? A lot of the big mess years ago was this same legal hot potato.
‘If you’re in the market for a new home, you’ve noticed that the housing market is on fire…Joe Limon is on the hunt for a house. ‘The price of my house went up so that’s why I’m selling it to get something else’
And we all know there is a shortage of shacks in the desert and prices never go down.
Las Vegas homebuilders thriving amid ‘buying frenzy’ – Las Vegas …
reviewjournal› Business › Housing
Apr 20, 2018 - Las Vegas homebuilders had their best first quarter in a decade this year amid a “buying frenzy,” a new report says. … The median sales price of last month’s closings was $357,195, up 8 percent from a year earlier. …
What can go wrong? So what if they get a little goofy in Las Vegas? It can’t matter much, right?
The thing is… these things don’t play out in a neat curve where all the transactions fall uniformly onto a line on a graph. Yet, the natural tendency is to look for simple patterns when reporting and try and make that the one true narrative for all…
Ben,
Ok, maybe a bit too much hyperbole… but it really does help one see the big picture in a zen sort of way.
What I appreciate the most about this blog is that you are always pulling in different sources and stories into a ongoing aggregate fire-hose. Any one story on any one day is useless, but the more you build a big picture over time and space, the more I see the life-cycle of an organism… growth,, maturity.. decay.. death..
May I interest u in a May 2005 bond tranche?
What am I bid?
Just asking. Is there real industry in Vegas
or is it primarily entertainment? When the general economy goes into a downturn, it will probably hurt
I know this is off-topic, but i’ve been walking around a different office building today and my god people are FAT. I mean maybe 10% are what I would call fit. Everyone else is 20-30 pounds over, including soft Millenial guys. Middle aged women in clerical/ support jobs are 40+ lb, especially of color. Even the Asians are soft. Not to mention what I see In the Latino-heavy streets and grocery stores. This country is a diabetes colony waiting to happen.
I’m at DIA about to fly to CLE. Visiting the land of the fats.
First stop off the plane: White Castle drive thru.
I’m for taxing fat people. Since I imagine u w chick pack tabs u would get a refund.
Just tax soda and added sugar instead.
Housing Donk….. Housing.
La Vegas, NV 89109 Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/las-vegas-nv-89109/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
waiting to happen? Its here like a meteor and the dinosaur sized people are being taken out. Especially funny how they feel compelled to cover themselves with tattoos, the vast majority of which are just a mess and only add to the ugly. A friend also pointed out to me the fatties have more to tattie, lol.
And for the record: BMI 19.8, BP 108/66, 47 and no meds. Just did a bike ride before lunch where I picked some guava to eat along with some rosemary I’ll add to my dinner. Plan to swim or surf after work like I do everyday. Generally the only people I see around my hood with a similar body type are teenagers. People eat garbage and they dont get much exercise, but I find my mind works very well after exercise, its when I do some of my best work. Seems to remove any cobwebs and give me more clarity of thought.
Wow, a BMI under 20, that is rare these days. Way to live a healthy lifestyle. Both my parents are overweight and borderline obese. I’m 5′11” and 159. I would like to get under 150 for marathon purposes, but I don’t think genetically it is in the cards.
“…but I find my mind works very well after exercise, its when I do some of my best work.”
I keep a list of challenges that need solving, and I review that list and select one to think about before setting out on my road bicycle.
Meh BMI is kinda useless. Ive been 220 lbs since high school when I played varsity soccer, basketball and baseball every year. My BP is also pretty much perfect, no meds, no health issues and I exercise 4 or 5 times a week, whether bike, swim, lift weights, pick up basketball game, etc. I ski every weekend in winter. Yet using BMI i am borderline obese. Muscle vs fat is not taken into account for in BMI so I’m fat according to the govt. The same govt that encourages me to eat lots of grains and bread and avoid proteins like eggs and meat.
Too low BMI can be a problem with elderly individuals–osteoporosis and increased fall risk. But BMI correlates to increased longevity, notwithstanding body composition. A lower BMI, all things equal, suggests higher life expectancy as high BMI relates to cardiovascular disease and thrombotic events (strokes and heart attacks):
http://circ.ahajournals.org/content/early/2018/04/25/CIRCULATIONAHA.117.032047
I’m old enough to have seen the transformation in my lifetime. It bothers me whenever I think of it, or look back at photos from the 60s and 70s.
I attribute multiple reasons/sub-reasons for the change:
* Total amount of food eaten
* Change in average activity levels, especially children
* Types of food eaten
* Additives and hormones in food
* Change in who/when prepares said food
* Change in ingredients / additives / recipes of prepared food*
* Pervasive Advertising of food
* HFCS I’m looking at you!
I attribute multiple reasons/sub-reasons for the change:”
decrease in smoking
know this is off-topic, but i’ve been walking around a different office building today and my god people are FAT.
I say the same thing and I work in healthcare. The MDs, RNs, and techs are overweight. A lot of it is the stress of the job, poor habits, and running on caffeine and sugar to juice up the adrenal system. I may be moving to the ICU next week if I’m offered the a new position. The only downside is that I’ll have to work the night shift quite frequently. Once you start doing that, it becomes difficult to maintain a healthy metabolism even if you are eating really well.
The worst part about fat people is the entitlement and groaning when the “system” doesn’t support their individual choices to be so unhealthy.
FWIW, they can’t be employed as pilots or air traffic controllers per the medical regulations… and that’s the federal government.
What disturbs me more is the number of fat kids here.
It is very rare to see obese people in the Third World, where a lot of people walk substantial distances each day, and where food insecurity is an issue. The last time I was in Colombia I saw only a handful, and I was there for an extended period of time.
Conversely, I see a (smaller) class of people in this country who are ridiculously in shape, almost hyper-fit. Boulder has a lot of people like that. Also Missoula. Sometimes I think we’re approaching what Taleb would refer to as a barbell distribution.
Sometimes I think we’re approaching what Taleb would refer to as a barbell distribution.
In income as well. And there is correlation.
Sometimes I forget all the medical options that the well to do also have. Not just plastic surgery…actual hormone adjustments. It’s a lot easier to look 25 if your bloodstream looks 25 no matter what you eat. And then eating well is just a bonus. Look at the before and after pictures of Bezos. I doubt that’s just diet and exercise.
It is very rare to see obese people in the Third World, where a lot of people walk substantial distances each day, and where food insecurity is an issue.
Actually, obesity is becoming a huge problem in 3rd world countries too. Poverty used to be synonymous with being thin, but with the advent of cheap, processed, unhealthy food, that link has been severed.
Oil is up another $2+ in the face of the largest glut in the history of crude oil. I think what’s going to happen is they’re going to blow another massive crude bubble, the stock market may retake all time highs, then the whole thing will fall apart and economy will completely melt down to something reminiscent of 2008.
Glut? Oil in storage is down around 100 million barrels in the last year just in the US. Demand is almost up to 100 million barrels a day world wide. We used WW almost 36 billion barrels and we found 4 billion, sorry I am not seeing the glut. The Saudis for political reasons drove down the price to get rid of Putin with the help of Obama. To maintain $100 oil all the Saudis had to do is cut production one million barrels a day. Instead they increased it by one million hence the fall in prices. Now that Obama failed to get Putin out as leader the Saudis are working to get higher oil prices. Just like it usually foolish to fight the Fed when the Saudis and Russians want higher prices and are prepared to cut production it is foolish to be short.
And with Aramco going public, you know the Saudis are going to want a high oil price.
You’ve never seen a glut, Dan. You are an oil shill.
Why do the Russians want higher prices? A while ago, didn’t you say that the Russians crashed prices to drive American frackers out of business? Now it’s the Saudi who want to get rid of Putin? Everyone is changing their minds multiple times. I give up.
No oxide, I have always maintained that Obama tried to run a play from the Reagan play book. Work with the Saudis to drive down oil prices to bankrupt the then Soviet Union. Russia did not want the lower oil prices. When Obama started the oil war against Putin the cover story was that it was being done to drive frackers out of business. Obama hated Putin enough to sign a horrible deal with Iran just to keep the oil prices down for a while longer. However that did not make the Saudis happy. They started to work out a deal with Putin soon after that occurred. Putin of course had a bone to pick with Obama and going after Hillary was one way. This had nothing to do with Trump and everything to do with Putin showing Obama that there is a price to pay for trying to get him overthrow. I said almost four years ago on this blog that Putin would stick an oil derrick up Obama’s butt for his actions in the oil market
Sounds like speculation.
It certainly was at the time. But Putin’s and the Saudis actions since then have been very consistent with that almost four year old speculation.
It’s probably safe to say that the oil markets are riddled with collusion.
Nonbanks issued nearly half of mortgages sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie in 2016, compared with 8% a decade ago.”
Not too scary
Are non banks even regulated?
When they blow up (which they will) who is left holding the bag?
Pullman, WA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Opioid Epidemic Ravages West Coast
https://www.movoto.com/pullman-wa/market-trends/
Why the hell are you mentioning the opioid epidemic lol oh these ridiculous “crater” posts…
Housing my friend.
Millbrae, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Bay Area Layoffs Accelerate And Confidence Plummets
https://www.movoto.com/millbrae-ca/market-trends/
Prices crater as morbidly obese people break wind while eating bean burritos at Taco Bell!
I don’t know the story behind MW/MB’s near-hourly posts .
I’m guessing MW is just a bot that randomly picks from several columns to auto-generate a post. And if’s it not bot, maybe we should write one and put him out of business.
So many friends in one place.
Vienna, VA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As NoVa/DC Confidence Plummets
https://www.movoto.com/vienna-va/market-trends/
The lighter side
http://www.wbaltv.com/article/a-sticky-mess-liquid-chocolate-spills-on-polish-highway/20635425
Grapevine, TX Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Oil Bust Pummels Dallas Area
https://www.movoto.com/grapevine-tx/market-trends/
50 some years ago I was a srproperty agent for CalVet, an FHA appraiser, and a REbroker, and I was interested, today, in what has changed with the FHA appraiser, so I looked it up on Google’
found out it was much more difficult in the reporting of the appraisal,
Need pictures of four sides of house, picture of yard, pictures of comps, neighborhoods, and detailed form reporting of conditions in
all things
Now I don’t know if the appraisers do all of that at this time, but perhaps they do.
Back then I got 20 bucks for an fha appraisal,
when I retired , I stopped all of that work as the tax bite would be about 70% of gross, and it was not worth the effort as insurance would eat most of the net.
Arcadia, CA Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY As Population Decline Accelerates Statewide
https://www.movoto.com/arcadia-ca/market-trends/
The Chinese take their place.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahaha …
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/US-consumer-credit-student-loans-2018-Q1.png?itok=RsnGIQ0t
Irish Independent
https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/entire-generation-risks-being-priced-out-as-property-cost-continues-to-surge-36892198.html
Meanwhile wages in Ireland are low, low, low and taxes while low by European standards are still high. Their VAT varies from 9 to 23%, depending on what is being taxed, though most sales are taxed at 13%
Ireland’s big banks crashed in 2008, and the financial losses were too large for the Irish government to bail causing the IMF to enter the situation.
“Nancy Wallace, a Berkeley professor and one of the paper’s authors, said nonbanks are undercapitalized and rely too much on borrowed money. Being able to access credit lines from Freddie or Fannie wouldn’t solve that problem, she said. ‘Fannie and Freddie should not be in the business of that kind of lending,’ Wallace said.”
What kind of lending? Subprime?
Nothing cratering around here in the SFV part of LA. Yet another house in the neighborhood went for 50K over asking. Flippers bought it in November for around 658K, remodeled it (had fire damage) and it sold for 1,240,000.00. Was listed at 1,199,000.00. Sold within days.
https://tinyurl.com/yd5×4pb9
A mega buck to live in the San Fernando Valley. Good gravy.
It is also a fact that housing prices can’t go up forever. Eventually you will run into a point to where you just can’t raise them any further. I don’t know how all these people in the media can say the opposite with a straight face. It’s as believable as putting 10 pounds of crap into a 5 pound pail (or KG if you prefer). Supply and demand mean nothing if a buyer has no means of paying for something.
It’s getting harder for most to make an honest living and they hear that speculators are raking it in. So they gamble with money they don’t have. They are actually bidding prices up above what they can pay. There will be consequences.
“It is also a fact that housing prices can’t go up forever. Eventually you will run into a point to where you just can’t raise them any further.”
The final frontier. These are the voyages of the starship LoanDepot. Its 5-year mission: to explore strange new overpriced communities, to seek out new life and new first time buyers, to boldly sell where no Realtor has gone before.
It’s amazing that there hasn’t been any national level dialog on the relationship between household income vs home prices in the past ten years while non-participating savers have been quietly destroyed. Yet the Pledge of Allegiance says we’re a Republic.
“It’s amazing that there hasn’t been any national level dialog on the relationship between household income vs home prices”
Plenty before that in my house, as far back as 2004 I remember my wife asking why we couldn’t afford a $350k house (that was $150k two years earlier) while couples A, B and C could while making the same or less money than us.
there hasn’t been any national level dialog…
You are here aren’t you.
I’d like to hear our democratically elected representatives weigh in on the subject.
Supply and demand mean nothing if a buyer has no means of paying for something.
Credit is the key ingredient that makes this farce drag on. Mr. Banker and his bag of tricks is enabling the delusional to pay for things they can’t afford. Absent this credit and sensible regulation, supply is jacked up way higher than warranted. Put in regs and pull back the government gravy and supply and demand will fall back in line as the mania recedes. When will this happen, or will it ever happen? Well, it has already started in many places. Hasten the day that people wake up en mass from the delusion.
Crowds go crazy en masse. People wake up one at a time.
crushing.housing.losses.
A morning prayer…
Oh Lord, please protect me from the condescension and derision of superior people, full of “muh body”, “muh real estate empire” and “tax the fats”, for I have had all that I can take of them. Please deliver them to the fitness and investor blogs.
Dear God, some deserve good fortune due to their hard work, but many toil and most are not so well rewarded. Protect them from realization that they are not immune from calamity, sickness and old age, and that some small part of their good fortune may be due to luck, for I don’t think they could handle it.
And finally, please smite the flippers and equity vultures so we can have affordable housing.
Amen.
Can I get an amen!
“Can I get an amen!”
Can you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBTxWLX8ZBw
Haven’t commented here since the last bubble and just recently been following this blog again (good to see Ben still at it). I live in the Phoenix area and construction still humming — many business building/complexes, apartments, and houses being built in the last year or 2. Seems we have more people moving here, but eventually their will be an oversupply that will lead to a hard fall in property values. My house I’ve been in for 15+ years, which is nearly paid off, has a current market value that is now just 5-10% off from the 2006/7 peak.
sock puppets