The Exuberance May Be Waning
A report from National Real Estate Investor. “Last year was a record year for commercial and multifamily mortgage originations at $530 billion. ‘We’re anticipating that 2018 will be down just a little bit from 2017, but we are still expecting a strong year,’ says Jamie Woodwell, vice president in the MBA’s Research and Economics group. Some of the headwinds that will create a drag on originations are rising interest rates and slowing NOI growth, notes Woodwell. ‘We’ve enjoyed roughly a decade of the trifecta—low interest rates, declining cap rates and strong fundamentals, which has been responsible for driving continually-higher prices and financing opportunities,’ says Hilary Provinse, executive vice president and head of mortgage banking at Berkadia.”
“Now interest rates are increasing and cap rates are steadying, leaving only NOI growth to support prices, she says. NOI growth has continued across property types and a few measures indicate that prices are continuing to increase, albeit more slowly. ‘While the market may not accelerate as quickly, it also doesn’t seem likely to go too far in reverse at this point,’ she adds.”
From Globest. “Multifamily has certainly been the favored asset class this cycle, but the exuberance may be waning. At RealShare Southern California, Kitty Wallace, EVP at Colliers International, said that properties are staying on the market longer, and in some cases for months. She spoke on the Multifamily—Overcoming the Affordability Crisis panel, and touched on the multifamily investment activity.”
“While properties are taking longer to trade, Wallace said that everyone is still a buyer in the market, and the demand remains strong. ‘Everyone is a buyer,’ she said on the panel. ‘The market isn’t like it was three or four years ago when you could put properties on the market and get multiple offers. Today, overpriced properties aren’t moving, because the market isn’t what it used to be.’”
From The State in South Carolina. “Private developers have their eyes on a pair of new student apartment projects in Columbia, possibly extending a recent student housing building boom in the city, but prompting some tensions among residents, developers and local leaders. Looking at the 908 Group and Reign plans, City Councilman Howard Duvall and others have raised the same question of whether Columbia’s student housing bubble is headed for a bust. ‘I think we are overbuilt now, and the type of dormitories they’re building for these students are not easily converted into usable housing once the students decide they don’t want to live there anymore,’ Duvall said.”
From KGW 8 News in Oregon. “After nine years of economic expansion and job growth in the Portland metro area, economic and population growth are both beginning to slow down, according to a new report from Portland State University. Portland’s red-hot housing market is starting to cool down, Potiowsky said. The consequence of that, he believes, is a lack of affordable housing.
Affordability is a big factor for renters, as well. The study shows many people are moving away from the city to find better prices. At the same time, rents in the area are starting to plateau, according to Tom Potiowsky, Director of the PSU center. One reason for that is more options for renters. ‘We finally have more multi-family housing available in the area. A lot of building happened,’ he said. ‘At the same time, the rents were going up very rapidly, and so I think with that greater supply, with the affordability aspect, that starts to put a lid on where rents can go. So we’ve seen that rise of rents really slow down.’”
From The Real Deal on Florida. “Three condo buyers are suing the developer of the Ritz-Carlton Residences, Miami Beach over the project’s construction delays, seeking to get their deposits refunded. The three lawsuits — one brought by a Dallas-based couple, one from a Miami-Dade resident and another from a Mexico-based entity — all claim to have entered into purchase agreements and put down deposits for condo units between 2014 and 2015. Their units ranged in price from $3 million to $4.8 million.”
“The plaintiffs allege that the developer stated in its contracts that the project would be substantially completed by June 30, 2017, which meant that the unit would be ‘physically habitable and usable for the purpose’ for which it was purchased, according to one complaint.”
“But the project is still under construction and the prospective owners allege that the developer has not begun construction of their units. As a result, the plaintiffs allege that the developer has breached its sales agreement. They are seeking a return of their deposits and to have their attorney fees covered.”
The Stamford Advocate in Connecticut. “Stamford has a bad, and well deserved, reputation for razing its history. Now it has a chance to correct — or at least improve upon — not one but three of those past mistakes. The city’s zoning board earlier this week approved an application to let a developer level one of the three St. John’s Towers, the silo-like downtown apartment buildings that are the arterial plaque of the heart that is our rapidly upscaling downtown.”
“In place of the St. John tower, which has been abandoned for three years now, Miami-based homebuilder Lennar wants to build — and you’ll never see this coming — 400 luxury apartments and street-level retail. Stamford needs more luxury apartments like it needs more potholes.”
The Buffalo News in New York. “The lender behind the Monarch 716 student-housing complex on Buffalo’s West Side has started foreclosure proceedings against developer DHD Ventures of Rochester, seeking to seize the troubled property and even go after DHD’s two principals personally. Acres Capital, which acts as an agent and adviser for three insurance companies, filed the first foreclosure paperwork Tuesday in State Supreme Court in Erie County, claiming it is owed more than $38 million and demanding payment.”
“The court documents list as defendants Buffalo State Ventures - the DHD entity that owns the property at 100 Forest Ave. - as well as partners Thomas Masaschi of Rochester and Jason Teller of North Carolina. It also cites various other contractors and vendors that have filed their own liens against DHD for failing to fully pay them for their work.”
“By raiding the headquarters of Morgan Communities, the FBI confirmed Monday that there’s a cloud around developer Robert C. Morgan’s companies. ‘It’s a very debilitating thing,’ said Dennis C. Penman, who spent a career developing properties, mostly for M.J. Peterson and Ciminelli Real Estate, and knows Morgan casually.”
“The existence of the FBI investigation shouldn’t affect the thousands of tenants in Morgan properties around Buffalo, and tens of thousands of tenants in other states, Penman said. But it could affect Morgan’s ability to proceed with other projects and purchases on the drawing board. ‘One would assume that lenders would be cautious at this point,’ Penman said. ‘It would concern me deeply.’”
“Morgan’s companies own some 36,000 units spread across 14 states, mostly east of the Mississippi. Morgan, who started out in Rochester, is a significant player in Western New York, too. His companies have come to own or manage 3,500 Buffalo-area apartments, and in October he spoke of plans to develop 1,000 more.”
“Morgan built his vast portfolio by, among other things, buying existing apartment complexes, fixing them up and then raising the rents. But in some purchases examined by The News, Morgan’s limited liability companies appeared in public records to borrow more than the purchases price. Lenders typically insist buyers use their own money for 20 percent of a purchase, and the loan covers the remaining 80 percent, to ensure that borrowers have a stake in the property and the risk.”
“Observers told The News they worry about the debt he has taken on and the amounts he borrows. ‘It makes me very, very, very incredulous as to how these things get done,’ Joseph Janowski, a long-standing local broker in the financing of real estate, especially commercial real estate and multifamily housing, told The News last year. ‘I don’t know how you pull it off.’”
“Morgan has previously told The News: ‘I borrow money the same way everyone else does in the U.S. There’s no hidden secrets. There’s no story to tell.’ But he also told The News his companies sometimes make special arrangements with sellers to ‘avoid showing full price’ on publicly available real estate documents. By doing so, tax assessors don’t see the full value and and the property tax bills ‘don’t go through the roof,’ Morgan told The News. His explanation raised concerns among others in the real estate industry.”
“Morgan explained then that sometimes his companies borrow enough to both buy and renovate the units. These ‘value-added loans,’ as the industry calls them, explain why a company might appear to borrow more than an apartment complex’s stated price, Morgan explained last year.
“Two sources told The News that FBI agents were examining, among other things, the purchase of a Syracuse apartment complex known as Rugby Square. Morgan and Buffalo’s Fitzpatrick formed a limited liability company that borrowed $5.56 million to buy the apartment complex in a distress sale in 2012.”
“Ten months later, however, the LLC told a new lender that Rugby Square had, in less than a year, experienced a turnaround, and it qualified for a new $9 million loan. The company’s documents, provided to the data-collection service Trepp, indicate Rugby Square’s appraised value had nearly tripled, from $4.75 million in early 2012 to $13 million by year’s end.”
“Industry sources contacted by The News were unable to remember any multifamily project that had tripled in value in such a short time. ‘It’s not something that never happens. Normally, it takes longer,’ Manus Clancy, the senior managing director of Trepp, has previously told The News.”
‘Rugby Square’s appraised value had nearly tripled, from $4.75 million in early 2012 to $13 million by year’s end’
Oh, there’s potential fraud. What a surprise!
‘The average asking rent for ground-floor retail space dropped in nine of Manhattan’s 17 retail corridors this spring. The most drastic decline was in the Soho-Broadway area, which saw asking rents drop 27 percent year-on-year to $595 per square foot. Midtown’s Upper Fifth Avenue, which stretches from 49th to 59th streets, remained robust, registering a 17 percent increase to $3,900 per square foot.’
‘Morgan built his vast portfolio by, among other things, buying existing apartment complexes, fixing them up and then raising the rents. But in some purchases examined by The News, Morgan’s limited liability companies appeared in public records to borrow more than the purchases price.’
Now some of you may say, “Ben you said this was going to happen, how did you know?” It was the crazy talk I documented repeatedly since 2014. And a mania invites trouble, especially when there’s so much money involved. Oh and the trifecta quote doesn’t mention Mel Watt throwing gasoline on the fire with government backed loans. What was the number? Over a trillion Yellen bucks IIRC.
‘Two sources told The News that FBI agents were examining, among other things, the purchase of a Syracuse apartment complex known as Rugby Square. Morgan and Buffalo’s Fitzpatrick formed a limited liability company that borrowed $5.56 million to buy the apartment complex in a distress sale in 2012.’
‘Ten months later, however, the LLC told a new lender that Rugby Square had, in less than a year, experienced a turnaround, and it qualified for a new $9 million loan.’
This has been going on all over the country for years. It’s actually considered the norm. The REIC touts this miraculous money machine at seminars regularly.
One would think the FBI raiding the office of a guy involved with 36,000 apartments might get more press than the local paper.
“One would think the FBI raiding the office of a guy involved with 36,000 apartments might get more press than the local paper.”
But, but….Stormy Daniels….
“the silo-like downtown apartment buildings that are the arterial plaque of the heart that is our rapidly up$caling downtown.”
Real.e$tate poetica$ …
Mr. Ben, can eye invite Mr. Kevin McKeever to post other Sesame $treet level $helter Boxe$ ob$ervations to the HBB truthout$ depo$itory?
“… opened in 1971 to house lower-income residents displaced by the city’s urban renewal movement of the era. While the towers, ringed with sewage-colored rectangles and prison-bar porch rails, have been referred to in print here as “iconic,” they are more likely referred by you in disgusted tones as hideously dingy eyesores. At one time I thought they might have been tributes to Chicago’s famous Marina City, better known as the waterfront “corn cob” towers. However, as the calendar pages fell and the layers of exhaust-fume pollutants thickened upon these crumbling concrete and glass cylinders, I’ve come to look on them more as a trio of monuments to Oscar the Grouch’s trashcan. While they offer great views of Long Island Sound to a select few, the towers simply replaced the socio-economic row house blight of one era with its own soot-caked architectural blight of another.”
Stamford native and resident Kevin McKeever, whose nationally award-winning column appears here every other Friday, is a freelance writer
Hey! You just reminded me of something…
This is hilarious…and still topical in many ways, despite it being more than 10 years old. A shame that its surviving competitor is such a pile of steaming crap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHsrUZVmAds
Prophetic… just like Idiocracy.
Ugh…like the hideous tower blocks in London ..
I’m very familiar with those “silos”. Used to see them every single day when I had a summer gig in downtown Stamford.
http://fdrich.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/stj1960.jpg
Low income housing built by the Catholic Church, as I recall. Never been inside, but i understand they were halfway decent to live in. Pains me to think Lennar is getting their mitts on the property.
I know this makes me a bad person, but I’m happy to see my previous LL still hasn’t sold their house, and just reduced the price another $100k. This is in Kirkland, WA:
They were crappy landlords, so happy to see them not get their wishing price so far.
How much did they pay for it?
Or how much were their property taxes?
Takes are $14k/year. They paid $950k for it in 2006
My two “crappy landlords” from late 2005 - 2012 were each foreclosed on when I moved out after collecting $1,700.00 tax free for that many years.
Were they making the payments while you were there? They must have been.
Back around 2010 I was buying groceries and the young man bagging them started talking about how his mother was losing “the house she was renting”. Came to understand this was a house she ‘owned’ that she was renting to other people, and that she had been collecting monthly rent for 3 years without making a mortgage payment. Her son said the bank hadn’t yet foreclosed on her primary residence, which she also hadn’t made a payment on in 3 years. And this kid was telling me this like it was something he expected others to express sympathy about “oh, your poor mother”.
I don’t think it makes you a bad person at all. Fawk those rent-seekers. They’ve had the upper hand and have been screwing people over for years around here. I hope they follow the market all the way down.
Curious - what was the rent they were charging you?
Curious - what was the rent they were charging you?
Don’t remember the exact amount at this point — $3500 or so?
$500+ a sq/ft? Where the heck in Kirkland is it?
Your post just prompted me to checked on a house above me, owned by a guy in China, that’s been rented but on the market for years.
Surprised to see it finally sold late last year, but for $300k less than the asking price was in ‘15. Looks like it was sold to another Chinese ‘investor’ - I need to see if the same family is still renting it.
‘We’ve enjoyed roughly a decade of the trifecta—low interest rates, declining cap rates and strong fundamentals, which has been responsible for driving continually-higher prices and financing opportunities,’ says Hilary Provinse, executive vice president and head of mortgage banking at Berkadia…‘While the market may not accelerate as quickly, it also doesn’t seem likely to go too far in reverse at this point’
It’s already gone in reverse, long ago. Now you depositors at Berkadia, don’t pull your money out all at once.
Listening to a Banker talk about “strong fundamentals” is similar to Clinton saying, “I want an America that does more than talk about family values,” while he’s lubing his cigar.
Santa Cruz, CA Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/santa-cruz-ca/market-trends/
‘We finally have more multi-family housing available in the area. A lot of building happened’
Click!
Like you said, it’s “shortage, shortage, shortage!!!” to glut in an instant. Makes you wonder if, in your words, “somebody was a lion!”
‘10 Must Reads for the CRE Industry Today (May 16, 2018)’
4. California Apartment Landlords Dump Properties Ahead of Rent Control Vote “A push to expand rent control in California is sending a chill through the state’s apartment industry, prompting more investors to sell properties or hold off on buying.” (Wall Street Journal, subscription required)’
Oh dear…
California Apartment Landlords Dump Properties Ahead of Rent Control Vote ??
Its been happening since the first of the year…IMO, possible rent control is probably low on the list of reasons…I think its more like;
Peak rent
Peak prices
4% unemployment (how much better can it get)…
operating costs going through the roof (Labor & materials)
interest rates on the rise
The problem for these owners is that they are all heading to the exists at the same time (Seeking every last dollar)…Smarter ones would have taken their gains last year or even the year before even if they left a bit on the table…
I am already seeing the CAP rates spike in the outlier area’s…A year ago I would not have said this but IMO, I think you can get at least a (real) 7%-8% CAP with reasonable safety…
“Peak rent”
“Peak prices”
“I think you can get at least a (real) 7%-8% CAP with reasonable safety…”
Wow. Talk about braindead. There is absolutely no safety in buying multifamily at peak pricing during a period of peak rents. As rents fall, that cap rate gets crucified. Reasonable safety my azz…
Not unlike the advice he gave the Newbie lady asking if she should buy an overpriced SFH… If you can qualify, buy, buy buy.
Somebody said he’s a REALTHWORE. It’s starting to make sense…
http://www.nreionline.com/nrei-wire/10-must-reads-cre-industry-today-may-16-2018
I like #10. Another California Fraudster claiming to be a “real estate expert” is going to the slammer for 20 years for running scams across Socal.
Buy now or get priced out forever, by rising mortgage rates!
Markets
Mortgage Rates Hit Seven-Year High as Ultracheap Era Ends
A strong economy and inflation concerns helped push up home-loan rates
By Laura Kusisto and Christina Rexrode
May 18, 2018 5:30 a.m. ET
Mortgage rates this week jumped to their highest level since 2011, signaling a shift from a period of ultracheap loans to a higher-rate environment that could slow home price appreciation and squeeze first-time buyers.
The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.61% this week from 4.55% last week, according to data released Thursday by mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac.
…
“Mortgage Rates Hit Seven-Year High as Ultracheap Era Ends”
“The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.61% this week from 4.55% last week, according to data released Thursday by mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac.”
Ummm, no, 4.61% IS ultracheap. Wake me up when we’re at 8%.
Home Prices are are on the other side of the financial seasaw - rates finally go up, and the physics of a lever puts a massive downward force on prices…
rates finally go up, and the physics of a lever puts a massive downward force on prices…
Exactly what I’m looking forward to!
If interest rates double it will still take a while before a whole couple of generations say housing is the worst investment ever. Wake up and buy after prices collapse, if you still want to.
I bought my first dump at 12% in 1990 for 21,400. Refinanced at 7% a few years later. Woohoo!
Is Taylor Swift trying to become the female entertainer rival to Johnny Debt and Nicholas Cage in the real estate investing realm?
Sounds like she has been loading up on lux investment properties at the peak. It will be interesting to see what becomes of her New York real estate HODLings in the upcoming fire sale. I guess if you have millions of dollars to play with, you may as well pour some of it down the real estate investment rat hole.
Life
Taylor Swift is selling her $2.95 million Beverly Hills mansion — take a look inside
Ali Montag | @Ali_Montag
10:15 AM ET
Thu, 3 May 2018
The singer-songwriter tops Forbes’ annual list of the 100 highest-paid celebrities with $170 million.
Taylor Swift is known for her shrewd dealings in the music business, but the 28-year-old pop star, who Forbes estimated was worth $280 million in 2017, is also making a name for herself in real estate.
Earlier this year, Swift picked up a 3,540-square-foot apartment in New York for $9.75 million, bringing her total spending for property on a single city block to almost $50 million, New York Post reports.
…
That place is at the bottom of a steep canyon… high ground on three sides. That said, Taylor looks like she was carved from cream cheese.
Fame and fortune at a young age is more of a curse than a blessing IMO. Especially tough for female singers as no one wants to hear anything come out of their mouths except song - like a bird in a cage. Most all end up crazy. Virtually impossible to marry up, drugs and alcohol used to dull the depression, the inevitable downward spiral - sad.
She does have an incredible vocal range/ability though.
She also has obsessed fans who try to break into her domicile. Fame and fortune is not pure upside.
She does have an incredible vocal range/ability though.
Taylor Swift?
IMO she has good business sense/confidence as well as songwriting/producing abilities and the ability to work with other good songwriters and producers without melting down over creative differences. That and the right look can take you FAR. But a great singer? Not to me. But I’m a fan anyway for all the other reasons.
Millennial women say dismal economy is preventing them from having children:
“William Frey, a demographer at The Brookings Institution, said the dip in Millennial women having children caught his interest.
“What really hit me with these new numbers is the sustained decline for women in their twenties,” Frey told Salon. “Millennial women have been the most affected by the economy, putting their lives on hold… they also have something other generations haven’t had: college debt.”
Millennial women started entering the workforce at the end of the Great Recession, yet static wages and the increase in the cost of living that followed put many Millennial women in poor financial situations to have children. Add record-breaking student debt loads to the equation, and you have a formula for low fertility rates.”
https://www.salon.com/2018/05/17/millennial-women-say-dismal-economy-is-preventing-them-from-having-children/
No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here.
The Fed’s “Eat the Young” wealth redistribution program has successfully destroyed the U.S. fertility rate. No house, no babies.
Don’t overlook that we got to this point during the longest period of economic expansion since World War II.
America
U.S. Births Dip To 30-Year Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
May 17, 2018
9:42 AM ET
Bill Chappell
In 2017, birthrates fell by 4 percent both for women 20 to 24 years old and for women 25 to 29, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
AGF/UIG via Getty Images
Updated at 8:48 p.m. ET
The birthrate fell for nearly every group of women of reproductive age in the U.S. in 2017, reflecting a sharp drop that saw the fewest newborns since 1987, according to a new report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
There were 3,853,472 births in the U.S. in 2017 — “down 2 percent from 2016 and the lowest number in 30 years,” the CDC said.
The general fertility rate sank to a record low of 60.2 births per 1,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44 — a 3 percent drop from 2016, the CDC said in its tally of provisional data for the year.
The results put the U.S. further away from a viable replacement rate – the standard for a generation being able to replicate its numbers.
“The rate has generally been below replacement since 1971,” according to the report from CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics.
…
The Long Death Of America’s Middle Class:
“The late 1950s was the golden age of America’s middle class.
This isn’t nostalgia talking. The US really did have robust Main Streets and thriving small businesses.
Back then, the US produced three-quarters of the world’s cars and airplanes. Americans produced most of the world’s steel and built the majority of the world’s skyscrapers.
Plus, the US stock market held the bulk of the world’s total stock market capitalization.
All this productivity gave the average American an unusually high standard of living.
Around then, a husband could support his family on an average income. He and his wife likely owned their own home, as well as their car. They had multiple children—and didn’t think much of the cost of having more. Plus, they had money to save.
Compare that to the average family today. Both spouses likely have to work—whether they want to or not—just to afford the same basic lifestyle.
Plus, it now costs well over $200,000 to raise a child, on average. And that doesn’t even include college costs. Back in 1960, it cost roughly $25,000.
This hefty price tag is one of the main reasons middle-class families are having fewer children… or none at all.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-18/long-death-americas-middle-class
Thank for posting that, 401.
I bookmarked this link a lot time ago -
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec13/middle-class12-13.html
It gave me some good thought as to how we define middle class, and what it takes for most people to feel they they are ‘middle class’.
I had one daughter in 1997. She was born when I was 40 years old. That was because I had a lot of emotional problems as a young woman and would have been an unfit mother if I had children younger. It was much better for me to do the career thing and take my anger out on sexist pigs in the workforce. It served me quite well climbing the corporate ladder until I got tired of arguing with idiots. I never was a good corporate team player, anyway.
My Mother had her children at 27, 29 and 32. Her Mother had her children at 29 and 39. I definitely would not recommend 40, but having children later in life is not necessarily a bad thing.
I have a nice resume and have had a modest job while I raised my daughter as a single parent. It is now my goal to get her through college without her becoming a debt slave.
I have also party “raised” a step-child that still needs some support at 30 years old. Their dad ended up as a dead beat and that is the extent of my ability to economically have children.
“It is now my goal to get her through college without her becoming a debt slave.”
I am in the 3rd year of that goal right now. My daughter confessed that she needs to extend her studies by another year as her grades vs workload were certain to become an issue. Understood… I was once there too.
Look for a continuation of the same policies for the next decade, if not longer.
Maybe the Millennial cucks are just waiting for their future wives to “settle down,” i.e., get past their interracial cravings and social media nudie postings?
This is the HBB, not /r/TheRedPill.
LOL… I’m talking about lösers, er, home buyers.
Too late for Millenial women. The 34+ age Millenial men are already eyeing 24-year old Gen Z. One of my single friends is turning 40 in a month and is suddenly hankering for a rugrat in his own image. He’s been eyeing women under 30 and then complaining (to me) when they act all immature and the dating goes bad. I told him that immaturity was the price of healthy eggs, deal with it.
There are more factors playing into the change.
One is that culturally we’ve really pushed women to delay childbirth and replace it with schooling and career building, which naturally impacts the under-25 rates. Unfortunately, biology doesn’t change the window of opportunity, so the total numbers will be lower even if the rate of kids is the same (they just start later, thus ending earlier).
Another is the social climate and expectations. We’re telling parents today to put far more time, money and effort into each kid than compared to generations past, and we’re wound to the point where we are seeing laws passed saying it’s ok to let your kids play outside or walk to a nearby school without you having to hold their hand the entire time. When something is that exhausting, you are going to do less of it.
There’s also the swirling cloud of greed that they live in.
they also have something other generations haven’t had: college debt
Student loans have been around for a long time. What changed is the amount of borrowing per student, which has reached insane levels.
“What changed is the amount of borrowing per student, which has reached insane levels.”
I like it! I love it! I want some more of it!
😁
And more degrees are worthless as the schools add subject matter more befitting a drug inspired Dr. Seuss book. Overall quality across the board - even in STEM - has declined IMO.
Thats fine - we have too many people anyway, and way too many of them are fat and/or stupid.
Student loans have been around for a long time. What changed is the amount of borrowing per student, which has reached insane levels.
A generation ago, student loan balances may have been lower, but the interest rates were much higher. I looked at what the average monthly payment now is on student loans and it’s similar to what I was paying long ago. And wages were lower back then. My highest interest rate on a loan was 10.25% and these were standard Sallie Mae loans, not private loans! People now really don’t have a clue, and all they do is complain. They have no sense of reality. And back when I graduated, there was no consolidation, either, and no tax deduction for the interest.
How much did you spend on your cell phone back then?
How much at Starbucks?
You get the drift….
Homeowners, businesses tired of cleaning up human waste from streets:
“It makes the area around my house stink,” Adam Seader said.
He owns a condo in Denver’s Capitol Hill neighborhood and says the alley behind his home has turned into a toilet.
“I go back quite often, put on gloves and a long sleeve shirt,” he said. “I definitely didn’t sign up for this whenever I purchased my condo.”
http://kdvr.com/2018/05/16/homeowners-and-businesses-are-tired-of-cleaning-up-human-waste-from-the-streets/
Hey Adam, you overpaid for that condo, and you live in a sh*thole.
I would never buy a condo. Ever. A friend of a friend received an assessment of like $35k for some structural repairs/upgrades.
Hey, but they have great walk scores to restaurants, bars, dispensaries and Whole Foods. They can even walk to the convention center for Comic Con!
“Walk scores” should take into account human feces and urine on the ground, needles, homeless junkies and beggars, and overall crime. I bet they don’t.
Sobbing wife to husband from hospital bed after brutal attack: “But honey, the walk score was over 90.”
I should have known that my apartment was in a bad neighborhood. The ad said “short run from the subway.”
- Rodney Dangerfield
Colorado = The Next California
“94,785,000 Not in Labor Force; At 62.9%, Labor Force Participation Stuck Near 38-Year Low”
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/no-records-set-august-number-employed-americans-drops-participation-rate
According to the Denver Post, unemployment here dropped to 2.9%, yet it took months for my laid off colleagues to find work, and many had to settle for no benefits, 12 month contract gigs that pay less than the old job.
“According to the Denver Post, unemployment here dropped to 2.9%”
Somebody’s a lion.
That goes without saying. If unemployment was really 2.9%, potential employers would be kicking your door down with an offer that includes a big pay bump. Instead, you find yourself competing with 20 or more very qualified candidates then asked if you’ll work for the same salary you’re getting now.
That 2.9% probably counts Uber drivers who make minimum wage and destroy their car to boot.
Uber/Lyft/AmazonFlex = “jobs” for people with zero math skills. P.T. Barnum would be proud.
Starbucks Restrooms Open for All Visitors:
“Starbucks Corp. said Saturday it is creating an official policy that allows all guests to use its cafes, including its restrooms, whether or not they make a purchase.
The policy comes a month after a Philadelphia manager called the police in April about two black men who asked to use the bathroom without purchasing anything and then allegedly refused to leave the cafe when asked.
Starbucks baristas and store managers have long found the coffee company’s guidelines on how to treat lingering nonpaying guests vague at best. One company executive told the Journal the guidance on nonpaying guests had long been a gray area, which the Philadelphia incident brought to the forefront.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/starbucks-creates-policy-on-nonpaying-guests-1526745600
All the Starbucks in downtown Denver better start stocking Narcan too because there’s gonna be alot of heroin/fentanyl overdoses in the Starbucks bathrooms.
Go for the snack, stay for the smack?
They should promote safety by installing a condom dispenser.
I can see it now….commercials touting civil lawsuits against Starbucks.
Advertised by a giggling blonde. And perhaps by his wife, too.
Woman Furiously Shits On Floor Of Tim Hortons, Throws It At Employees [Update]
https://theconcourse.deadspin.com/woman-furiously-shits-on-floor-of-tim-hortons-throws-i-1826082960
“Update (May 17, 1:01 p.m. ET): Tim Hortons has released a statement, via CBC.com:
“In limited cases across the country, restaurants have a restricted access policy for restrooms to ensure the well-being of our guests,” said Tim Hortons in a written statement.
“Our current understanding is that the Team Member used their discretion in this case and denied access to this Guest based on past behaviour and out of concern for the immediate safety of Team Members and Guests in the Restaurant,” the statement read, adding that as matters escalated, staff called police.”
How far we have fallen. And in such short a time.
Why, it wasn’t all that long ago that people were harvesting coffee beans from cat poop. Delicious!
“Woman Furiously Shits On Floor…”
OMG… what have we become?
The restaurant business is bizarre. All the bad ingredients of retail, sauteed in booze. Another owner I knew told me “it’s a good day - the chef is sober!”
OTOH, not dull. I got smacked in the face one time by a customer (male) which drew the ire of some firemen at the bar and started a western movie style brawl with stools being thrown and bats brandished.
Good times.
Tim Hortons is a coffee and donut shop! If she was drinking, it wasn’t there.
I know what it is.
The thing is any one, in any state of mind, can come walking in the door or, as I often saw, become someone else in the course of the evening.
FWIW, I could understand, “having to go” and doing it right there to demonstrate her anger. However, picking it up and tossing it at someone? Really?!
Not sure if anyone here remembers the jogger in Colorado known as “the mad pooper”:
https://www.thrillist.com/news/nation/mad-pooper-colorado-jogger-apologizes-for-pooping-on-familys-lawn
Basically there was a lady that was taking a dump every day in the family’s lawn. It became kind of this weird case and even Charmin toilet paper offered a year’s supply of product if she turned herself in. Some spokesperson for “the mad pooper” claimed that she had traumatic brain injury that affected her bowel control.
The poop slinging incident is shocking and depraved. And yet, this op-ed resonated with me because I think everyone has at some point been at the mercy of nature and in desperate need to use the bathroom:
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/05/17/we-should-have-empathy-at-least-a-little-for-the-tim-hortons-poop-flinger.html
That was beyond the pale.
All I was saying is that crazy people walk into stores, restaurants, etc. all the time and the workers collectively breathe a sigh of relief when they leave without incident. It’s really nerve-racking.
Here’s some cowboy peacock’s business plan… gone awry!
Certified 2017 Ford F-350 King Ranch w/Snow Blade - $59,996
https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/736531966/overview/
$60,000 for a used truck - pfffft…
King Ranch trim level for a snow pusher?
Austin, TX 78759 Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Housing And Oil Busts Slam Market
https://www.zillow.com/austin-tx-78759/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Ahhh.. my old neighborhood for a brief while.
It’s like saying the skydiver has plummeted from 30,000 ft to 25,000 ft - there’s still a hell of a way to go. Let me know when those $300-400k 1500 sq-ft, 1980s single-level homes get back below $100k like they were a decade ago..
All in good time my friend….. all in good time.
Watched about 3 minutes of the Royal Wedding this morning before I felt like I was going to throw up in the back of my throat.
At first I thought I was having a flashback to Obama’s first inauguration with Robin Roberts sitting there with her royal sideways sitting look how royal I am helmet while spewing about how gorgeous and tear jerking Duchess Meghan Markle’s everything was just like Moochelle Obama all those years ago.
This in contrast to the way Melania Trump is described climbing onto helicopter Marine One wearing her spiked heel hurricane death shoes to view the relief efforts for Tropical Storm Harvey victims.
For kicks I just looked up pix of The Dress. IMO the dress itself was too plain and ill-fitting, but that veil/train was utterly gorgeous.
Hey Donk
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-birth-of-a-new-american-aristocracy/ar-AAxmdmt?li=BBnbfcN
An article about “the new aristocracy”, and guess where the author discovered the majority of their wealth really comes from…
“The returns on (the right kind of) real estate have been so extraordinary that, according to some economists, real estate alone may account for essentially all of the increase in wealth concentration over the past half century. It’s not surprising that the values are up in the major cities: These are the gold mines of our new economy.”
“Real-estate inflation has brought with it a commensurate increase in economic segregation. ”
Surprise surprise.
It must be some kind of forever human characteristic, where certain people are driven to acquire and acquire and collect rent from and making rules for everyone else. Then the everyone else eventually rises up and slaughters the acquisitors and lives happily for a while.
The problem is there hasn’t been a good slaughtering for a while.
The teacher strikes in 5 deeply red states are the canary in the coal mine. These are not blue state ideologues demanding cushy pension benefits, these are teachers that have watched education and their salaries be whittled to the bone.
Huh…that’s shocking. They’re all so polite and unassuming.
Go diss urban life all you want but it ain’t bad bumping into a random friend you haven’t seen in 2 years when you’re having a Saturday afternoon pint down at the local. This isn’t downtown Denver, this is South Denver.
Ben Jones people in Denver live in fear because they are weak, they are pathetic, and they fear globalists. There is more resistance to globalists, communists, than you may be aware of, but the globalist media will never tell you that.
Globalists are not Americans. Remember, globalists are not Americans. They don’t give a sh*t about this country.
This isn’t Facebook. This isn’t Twitter. Can we talk about killing globalists, specifically the economic enemies of the American People? Is that wrong? Is that bad? I just spent a week in Northeast Ohio and saw what you globalists did to my hometown.
It’s time to kill globalists. Legally first, by starving them. Then illegally after that, if necessary.
(the Southern Poverty Law Center is a criminal terrorist organization)
‘It’s time to kill globalists’
Enjoy the law enforcement scrutiny for the next 20 or 30 years.
Oh well.
‘I agree. I hope we don’t get a knock on the door.’
Well you asked for it. We aren’t in an age for shooting off our mouths.
True. Lost my head (or will).
Bend Thy Knee
https://imgur.com/a/ygSx7Ot
Revolution
The Beatles
You say you want a revolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it’s evolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
But when you talk about destruction
Don’t you know that you can count me out
…
You say you got a real solution
Well, you know
We’d all love to see the plan
You ask me for a contribution
Well, you know
We’re doing what we can
But if you want money for people with minds that hate
All I can tell is brother you have to wait
…
I agree. I hope we don’t get a knock on the door.
My Scottish grandmother (born 1900) used to tell us about “internationalism” and how “the rich have no country”. Her mother used to speak out against internationalism in the town square. They also participated in other forms of resistance.
I read all the books in the house, like “None Dare Call it Treason” (reading addiction - no internet then!), so not all that surprised at recent revelations.
I would rather call it treason than do any killing. That is what they have been doing. Destroyers.
I do so want to see Trump clean house. But we are just now seeing what he is up against and how pervasive the problems are. I do not know what he can get done, but it is a start. He has broken the the PC narrative, awoken and called to the silent.
Interesting times we live in.
“But we are just now seeing what he is up against and how pervasive the problems are. I do not know what he can get done, but it is a start. He has broken the PC narrative, awoken and called to the silent.”
Excellent phraseology. Agreed.
Much of it rests on us…the people. To what extent are we willing to be ethical and moral? To be good to others and nurture the philosophy of liberty for individuals?
What are you willing to do? To sacrifice?
That’s the question for every person reading this.
I’m willing to not buy a house and work to convince those closest to me not to do so either to the extent they can feasible do so. The article that Karen posted from The Atlantic “(e.g. “The New American Aristocracy”) claims that real estate is responsible for almost all of the wealth concentration in the past half century. This is largely the same conclusion that Piketty and Saez’s data assert as well. That is a sobering thought. The only way to really change this, short of violent revolution (which I do not advocate), is a strike. But because people have to live somewhere, it must become feasible and socially acceptable to have alternative living situations other than massive debt. Living out of a vehicle seems to be the most logical to me even though I understand the myriad reasons why this is a non-starter for most.
For some reason whenever someone uses the word “globalist”, this is the image that is conjured up in my mind:
Excerpt from “How to Hide 400 Million”:
“He traveled constantly, Pursglove says, in part to reduce the amount of taxes he would be required to pay to any of the countries where he owned a home.”
“For Pursglove and her husband, as for many members of the global 1 percent, “residency” was an elusive and easily manipulated concept. Pursglove was a British citizen with a United States green card who now lived in Boca Raton. Oesterlund was a citizen of Finland who had also obtained a passport from Dominica. They had homes in at least four countries and spent a year living on their yacht. “These parties are global citizens of substantial means,” Judge Gillen mused from the bench. “Their situation is a blessing and a privilege for them, but for this court, their lifestyle creates a challenge.””
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/magazine/how-to-hide-400-million.html
NYT=garbage in, garbage out
Region IV
OT
is your county spending like mad?
they use “funded” accounting rules
get it -spend it
?anyone have probability of next US recession?
Palo Alto pastor resigns after nasty tweets about city: ‘An elitist sh– den of hate’
https://www.sfgate.com/local/article/palo-alto-pastor-tweets-gregory-stevens-baptist-12928428.php#photo-15582476
plus a slideshow why did you leave the bay area
Sounds like he touched a nerve:
“If the same energies used to organize neighbors around minor parking issues, a young girls choirs, and ‘nasty tweets’ were honed to fight actual injustices, Palo Alto would be a very different city. Palo Alto needs more action, less lip service.”
“plus a slideshow why did you leave the bay area”
Q: Are you better off now than when you were living in the Bay Area?
A: No, I feel restrained in southern Washington. We only have fields. People shoot guns for fun.
I’ve noticed that progressive folks seem to have an idea of how “everyone” should conduct their lives.
F.D. Rich Co. The Rich Co. had a three-decade rule as “the” downtown redeveloper
My brother worked for FD Rich for years, HVAC and loved it, before it went broke and new owners hired um sort of illegals are far less pay.
Southport, FL Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Industry Attempts To Conceal Market Correction
https://www.movoto.com/southport-fl/market-trends/
Demonstrators march in Koreatown to protest planned temporary homeless shelter
By City News Service
May 19, 2018 | 7:55 PM
Hundreds of people waving and carrying signs marched in Koreatown on Saturday to protest a planned temporary homeless shelter in the neighborhood.
Los Angeles police shut down Vermont Avenue from Wilshire Boulevard to 7th Street in Koreatown because of the protest, which was scheduled to run from 4 to 7 p.m., LAPD Sgt. Matthew Meneses said.
Ronald Kim, one of the marchers, told KABC-TV Channel 7, “Mayor Garcetti should have had basic decency and respect to hold a public hearing so the community could voice its concerns about this proposed shelter.”
Meneses said the protest started as scheduled and was peaceful, with no arrests or problems reported.
read comments http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-koreatown-protest-20180519-story.html
Somebody fired up the dumb ass factory last nite.
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/pipelinepress/05222018-yield-curve-shape.aspx
“Last week a long-time mortgage executive shared his thoughts with me on today’s market. “The tough retail origination market we are in currently is here to stay for several years. The industry has grown accustomed to challenging markets ending in 18-24 months, usually based on some sort of refinance activity. That is not going to happen this time, and it is going to be particularly difficult for smaller companies originating $1 billion or less annually unable to reduce fixed operations costs enough to offset shrinking volume and margins. I believe that going forward to survive and prosper you will need plenty of capital, scale, the very best technology, and great cost efficiency. Eventually things will improve but not until capacity shrinks through company failures and consolidation. As it stands right now, company owners are taking more and more risk for a smaller and smaller share of the profits, and that is not sustainable. Eventually LO’s compensation will have to come in line with the realities of today’s economics, but many expect things to get worse for owners before they get better.” If you would like to discuss today’s environment, finding the right partner, or looking at your options, please contact me to forward your note along to an interested party.”