A Veritable Avalanche Of New Supply
A report from the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. “The Richmond area has been in an apartment building boom in recent years and that continues, with more than two dozen apartment complexes near completion or under construction. In all, more than 3,000 apartment units are on tap to come onto the rental market in the Richmond area this year and in 2019 and 2020, and hundreds more apartment units are in the development pipeline. Since 2000, more than 17,400 apartment units have been added in the Richmond region. ‘We’ve gone through a period where a lot of the headlines are around the amount of supply being built. It raises the question of too much supply or not enough,’ said Max Peker, a market analyst for real estate research firm CoStar Group. ‘Certainly we need the housing units coming in, but what is coming in and what is being built is at the top end of the market.’”
“Andrew R. Little, an investment banker and a principal a Richmond-based real estate investment firm, said the apartment market here ‘is pretty much still on fire.’ ‘There are older apartments that are trading at valuations that are surprising,’ he said. ‘The price per unit on some of those trades versus what it costs to build new apartments, the difference would appear not to be great enough to buy the older assets. Just build the new assets.’”
From National Real Estate Investor. “Apartment landlords can no longer raise rents like they used to. So many new apartment units are opening that the percentage that vacancy is inching higher across the country. The number of new apartments opening has been trending higher than the number of apartments absorbed. Developers are expected to open a little more than 300,000 new units a year through 2019, matching the current high level of production, according to RealPage.”
“All the new development is putting stress on the apartment sector. ‘Vacancies have been rising since late 2016 as a veritable avalanche of new supply (a record high for some areas) works as a counterbalancing force,’ says Victor Calanog, chief economist of data firm Reis Inc.”
From Bisnow on Colorado. “The 20,000 apartment units under construction in metro Denver represent a 10% increase in the region’s inventory, CoStar market analyst David Pierce said. ‘That’s one of the top five highest amount of construction we’re seeing in the country, in terms of percentage,’ Pierce said. ‘Rents have grown by 1% a year in downtown for the last two years. For the higher-end stuff, rent growth is barely positive.’”
“Because there are so many new buildings to choose from — and 6,000 more units under construction — it is also the neighborhood that offers the most concessions, Pierce said. ‘There have been at least 10 properties in the lease-up stage since the end of 2013,’ Pierce said. ‘It’s not a leasing environment that’s conducive to asking someone for a 5% rent hike. If you’re looking for a deal — maybe a month or two free rent — you can find that.’”
The Rochester Business Journal in New York. “There are 1,700 new housing units in the works that, when occupied, will bring Rochester’s downtown population to 10,000 by 2021, according to the Rochester Downtown Development Corp. Why the resurgence and revival of downtown living? Developers aren’t exactly sure, other than it may be nothing more than Rochester riding the wave of a continuing national trend. ‘I can’t tell you why, all I know is it’s real,’ said Andy Crossed, managing partner with Rochester-based Park Grove Realty. ‘People are moving back to urban areas.’”
From the Democrat and Chronicle in New York. “A prominent downtown Rochester developer is facing a $38 million foreclosure action in Buffalo, having allegedly defaulted on loans for a student housing complex. Developer Tom Masaschi and DHD Ventures also are named in Rochester lawsuits by contractors that worked on 88 Elm St., an upscale housing tower adjacent the Midtown block. The Buffalo property in question is called Monarch 716, a 10-building complex with a clubhouse located near the State University College at Buffalo campus. Opened last fall, Monarch soon was put up for sale and began collecting liens and lawsuits shortly thereafter.”
From WGCU on Florida. “The seas are rising, frequently flooding the streets even when no storms are on the horizon. But that hasn’t stopped foreign investors from shelling out big dollars for Miami real estate. Many are in it for the relatively short-term investment, then they’ll try to sell before climate change takes its toll, observers of the local market say.”
“Broker Peter Zalewski is one of Miami’s most consulted condo specialists, especially by foreign buyers. ‘Many of the people I deal with — I’m not dealing with a family of four and a dog, I’m dealing with the investor — they’re going to be in and out,’ he says. ‘Their horizon is typically three, five, seven years they’re in and out. It’s kind of an issue if you’re worried about 10 or 20 years from now. It’s not an issue if you’re looking to capitalize on current market trends. It’s a trader mentality.’”
From The Real Deal on Florida. “During a period when banks across Florida were hesitant about lending on large construction projects, Bank of the Ozarks was on a tear: With just over $22 billion in assets on its books, it provided more than $1.2 billion in construction loans in the Miami metropolitan area from 2013 through 2017, according to the company’s annual reports. In Miami-Dade alone, the bank was the largest condo construction lender for the county’s biggest projects, responsible for 26.5 percent of the total dollar volume of loans issued to the 25 biggest projects during the last five years, an analysis by The Real Deal shows.”
“While some believe that Ozarks is a disciplined lender that’s merely filling a big void in lending activity, others question if it is overly exposed to one of the country’s most speculative real estate markets. Its critics draw comparisons to Corus Bank, a Chicago-based lender that aggressively financed condo construction in South Florida and was seized by regulators in 2009 after the condo market collapsed.”
“Charles Penan of Miami-based debt brokerage Aztec Group, noted the bank has the ability to make very large loans and offer non-recourse financing, which is unusual in the development lending business today. ‘They are not the cheapest bank in town, but they are offering non-recourse and a lot of borrowers are offering to pay for non-recourse,’ he said.”
“A spokesperson for the bank said that the real estate group’s ‘focus is on building a loan portfolio with the lowest credit and interest rate risks utilizing discipline and expertise.’ Some, however, have questioned whether its strategy is sustainable. Carson Block, a well-known short seller who made a name for himself exposing fraud in Chinese companies, warned in a presentation in 2016 that Ozarks is overexposed to commercial real estate and construction lending in particular. He said the bank had too many unfunded balance sheet commitments, meaning it will need to continue to make acquisitions in order to fund its lending.”
‘it may be nothing more than Rochester riding the wave of a continuing national trend. ‘I can’t tell you why, all I know is it’s real,’ said Andy Crossed’
That’s why you make the big bucks Andy.
Henderson(Foothills), NV Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/foothills-henderson-nv/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Because they want insane property taxes, high crime, terrible schools and democrat corruption beyond imagination…?
Or they are looking for a no risk way of getting rich on sweet equity?
*******
‘People are moving back to urban areas.’”
Don’t forget:
The high walk scores
The ethnic restaurants
The dispensaries (in some places, but coming to a downtown near you soon!)
The “adult” stores
The homeless and panhandlers
The human feces and hepatitis risk
What is there not to like?
Kidding aside, for some odd reason, there seems to be a lot more jobs in the downtown areas than before (at least in Denver). More than a few of my laid off colleagues work downtown in “bench seating” environments, where you have to drown out the noise by wearing headsets. For some reason, millenials seem to love this arrangement.
For some reason, millenials seem to love this arrangement.
I don’t believe that. I think they’re just more willing to put up with it. But if I’m wrong and they really do like it then I suspect that they were raised with much less guilt about needing to “look productive” 100% of the time like previous generations were. Maybe that’s a good thing.
When I interviewed at one of those places, I was told by the young staff that they “love it” and couldn’t see themselves in an office or a cubicle.
A former manager (not a millenial) works in a bench seating farm. Even though he’s a manager, he sits elbow to elbow with his underlings. He says it’s a pain in the butt, as he constantly has to go to a conference room when privacy is required.
The kids listen to music as they pound away at their keyboards.
wow , what comes after a bench
a bean bog chair?
Nah, too comfortable and takes up space. Next is a standing desk and no chair. Sitting is for lazy people. Collaboration will be better if people keep moving.
Soon it will be”Sitting is for closers.”
Realtors are liars
The D.C. Area Has A Ton Of Vacant Offices. So Why Are More Being Built? Apr 5, 2018
=============
https://wamu.org/story/18/04/05/d-c-area-ton-vacant-offices-built/
“The D.C. area’s office vacancy rate was 14.2 percent at the end of 2017, it says — about four percentage points above the national average. Yet offices accounted for a third of new building last year.”
“It’s a process called “densification.” Law firms no longer need vast spaces for law libraries. Technology companies don’t require rooms full of computer equipment. Younger workers want more light, more amenities and shorter commutes. Nearly 40 percent of new commercial construction in 2017 was located near a Metro station, according to the MWCOG report.
““They’re moving closer to a Metro — more toward what we call ‘activity centers,’ which are neighborhoods that have employment as well as housing and are transit-proximate,” Kent says. “When that happens, you’re getting a new building that’s being filled, but you’re also seeing a new vacant space opening up.”
Now planners are trying to figure out what to do with that glut of vacant space… Developers are already turning some of it into apartments.”
===============
Reversal of trend, I guess. In the late 90s, “office sprawl” (with ridiculous post-modern architecture) was built in the outer suburbs, like Route 7 and Dulles Toll Road in Virginia, and I-270 corridor in Maryland. GenX was supposed to live in McMansions and drive 3-4 miles to their offices and never see the Washington Monument. Now everyone is reviving downtowns, mainly to take advantage of the Metro and walking commutes.
Heh, now if only they can get Metro to actually function…
fxco residents will be paying ^40 a household so neighbors can ride metro
$243,000,000/ 370,000 households
Whoops ,paying $640
They can’t afford cars
Is it me or are journalists math challenged?
******
‘Rents have grown by 1% a year in downtown for the last two years. For the higher-end stuff, rent growth is barely positive.’”
Well, they were probably hoping for 5%.
It doesn’t dawn on them that their potential tenants:
1) Aren’t getting raises nor are paid as well as they thought.
2) Aren’t as numerous as they thought.
If it doesn’t say effective rents, it isn’t considering concessions and vacancies. The last effective rent number I can recall for downtown Denver was a 14% decline. It’s probably gotten worse. Think about it; two months free is 16% in a year.
How do you global warming is fake and no one believes it?
Not one of Al Gore’s predictions have come true
And
Beach front property is insanely priced and everyone wants to live on or near a beach.
******
“The seas are rising, frequently flooding the streets even when no storms are on the horizon. But that hasn’t stopped foreign investors from shelling out big dollars for Miami real estate. Many are in it for the relatively short-term investment, then they’ll try to sell before climate change takes its toll, observers of the local market say.”
You don’t really expect them to buy property in Topeka, KS?
An alternative viewpoint concerning rising seas at Miami Beach …
http://dailycaller.com/2016/07/10/miami-is-sinking-but-that-doesnt-mean-sea-levels-are-rising/
I read up on erosion - some books going back almost a century - and its clear that “rising seas” is entirely false and mostly a human induced phenomenon. The coastal areas need replenishment via erosion as well as from the streams/rivers. In developed areas they build right on the beach, add retention walls, jetties and the like and then choke off the streams/rivers for drinking water/ag use. You can look to rural coastal areas anywhere - Australia and South America in particular and find no such fears about rising seas.
But hucksters need to sell fear. Al Gore and his ilk are some of the biggest scum, preaching one message and practicing a complete different message. Theyre kind of like RE hucksters, but on steroids - although I dont think you can accuse Al Gore of being on steroids. Maybe bovine growth hormone
“Maybe bovine growth hormone…”
Agreed, he does look awful.
“Not one of Al Gore’s predictions have come true”
That’s not a logical proof that “global warming” isn’t happening. It’s only proof that Gore was a false prophet and a money grubbing liar.
There is proof that the oceans have risen 10 meters in the last few thousand years, and more like 100 meters since the peak of the last ice age. Gore ignored this because he’s a liar.
Talk about yellenbucks going buh-bye.
Could someone explain these Yellenbucks “going to money heaven” and “looking for a place to die” and “going buh-bye” and all the rest? What exactly is going to happen to those dollars? Money doesn’t disappear entirely, does it? Right now those dollars aren’t dead. They are sitting as “assets” at the bank, or maybe “accounts payable” on somebody’s balance sheet, or in a loan that’s owed by some developer who needs to refinance it.
At the end of the day, those Yellenbucks will be paid for by Millenials paying 50% of their income for a luxe apartment, and seniors eating cat food because interest rates are so low.
We need a HBB dictionary so we don’t have to go over stuff like this again and again.
It works like this. I sell you an apartment complex for a million YB. You have a 1M building, I have 1M YB. The price of your building falls in half and you have .5M YB and I still have the 1M YB. .5 YB go poof!
Kinda like Donk’s shanty.
It’s a thing:
Search Results
Mar 9, 2016 - You could easily see a trillion Yellen bucks causing many trillions to go poof. Back to my conversation; if the PBOC loans a local government …
http://www.zerohedge.com/?page=1892&_=1347570028708
… easily convertible to physical assets with nothing more than depreciating Yellen Bucks at exactly the moment they’ll need precious metals in their possession.
“It’s All A Lie” - Eric Sprott Slams Massive Monetary Metals …
https://www.silverdoctors.com › Nov 22, 2015 - … to physical assets with nothing more than depreciating Yellen Bucks at exactly the moment they’ll need precious metals in their possession.
Yellen Bucks are backed by a passel of corrupt political hacks, bent on fattening their wallets, and those of their collected whores. Now being …
https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/brian-pretti/real-confidence-indicator
Jan 7, 2014 - Yet so far into the New Year that pressure has not subsided, and this is with the Fed still conjuring up $75B (now) Yellen bucks each month.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/…/time_to_get_serious_we_need_to_start_pricing/
Cause I sure as hell am not buying Bitcoin to see it increase in value so that I can convert it back over to Yellen-bucks some day far off in the future.
Mom, Ben is scarring the lil’ kid$ … again!
Like the $wamp in the Nation$ capital, the Handmaiden’$ have a tool to drain their Re$erve$:
($orry, don’t have time to replace all the “give onto Cae$ar what belong$ to Cae$ar” … $ for “s”, there is a lot of ‘em in this Federal explaination$:
As an additional means of draining reserve$, the Federal Re$erve is also developing plan$ to offer to depository institution$ term deposits, which are roughly analogous to certificates of deposit that the institutions offer to their customers. A proposal describing a term deposit facility was recently published in the Federal Register, and the Federal Reserve is finalizing a revised proposal in light of the public comments that have been received. After a revised proposal is reviewed by the Board, we expect to be able to conduct test transactions this spring and to have the facility available if necessary thereafter. The use of reverse repos and the deposit facility would together allow the Federal Reserve to drain hundreds of billions of dollars of reserves from the banking system quite quickly, should it choose to do so.
When these tool$ are used to drain reserve$ from the banking $ystem, they do so by replacing bank reserves with other liabilities; the asset side and the overall size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet remain unchanged. If necessary, as a means of applying monetary restraint, the Federal Reserve also has the option of redeeming or selling securities. The redemption or sale of securities would have the effect of reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet as well as further reducing the quantity of reserves in the banking system. Restoring the size and composition of the balance sheet to a more normal configuration is a longer-term objective of our policies. In any case, the sequencing of steps and the combination of tools that the Federal Reserve uses as it exits from its currently very accommodative policy stance will depend on economic and financial developments and on our best judgments about how to meet the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price $tability.
Yellen bucks heading up to cryptocurrency heaven…
Bitcoin Closing on Long-Term Bear Indicator Not Seen Since 2014
NEWS
Omkar Godbole
May 23, 2018 at 09:00 UTC
Following bitcoin’s recent losses, a key long-term trend indicator is looking increasingly bearish.
Notably, the five-month moving average (MA) has rolled over in favor of the bears and looks set to cut the 10-month MA from above, signaling a bearish crossover for the first time since June 2014.
If that occurs it could be a worrying signal for the long-term price outlook. Back then, following an identical crossover in June 2014, the cryptocurrency subsequently dropped by 70 percent (from $580 to $166) in the seven months leading up to January 2015.
This time around, the bearish crossover will likely occur at the turn of the month, if bitcoin extends the current decline towards the $7,000 mark, and would open the doors for a deeper sell-off towards the $5,000 mark.
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-closing-on-long-term-bear-indicator-not-seen-since-2014/
‘There are older apartments that are trading at valuations that are surprising,’ he said.’
Yeah, and now the FBI is showing up at some of these outfits.
‘The price per unit on some of those trades versus what it costs to build new apartments, the difference would appear not to be great enough to buy the older assets. Just build the new assets.’
And this is when the existing market is fooked. Gosh I hope none of these guys have cash-out refinanced, repeatedly.
Lot of space in these malls…
Note: Article from a few years ago
+++
Completely Surreal Photos Of America’s Abandoned Malls
An inside look at nine abandoned malls. There is nothing creepier and more fascinating.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/completely-surreal-pictures-of-americas-abandoned-malls?utm_term=.kcy2ywkdNo#.pgqa4MzAL6
These would be perfect one-stop shopping for social services. Just fix up the systems and you have functioning heat, A/C, and high-capacity sewer. The lower level could be donation centers, counseling, methadone, safe-injection spaces, medical clinic, showers, etc. Upstairs could be turned into dorms for the homeless. Walking trails in the parking lots.
“& the beat goe$ on, & the beat goe$ on …”
( @ CV$, it’s been my experience of recent, that the line in the pharmacy pickup, is x3 longer than the checkout register, which makes my wine purchases a breeze.)
Opoid$ or bu$t!
(There’s that word again: Corporate/Citizen$ bidne$$ Philosophie$, … Out with old, in with new!)
Thousands of Rexall Drug Stores fronted Main Street in communities throughout the nation for eight decades of the 20th century. Most were locally owned, and all possessed an exclusive franchise for Rexall brand merchandise in their town or section of a city. Actively supporting Rexall Stores were the management and advertising departments, factories and distribution networks comprising the vast corporate body of United Drug Company and its successor, Rexall Drug Company.
History of Rexall - the short version
Rexall was the brainchild of Louis Kroh Liggett, a Detroit patent medicine salesman who created a manufacturing cooperative for franchised drugstores at the turn of the 20th century. Liggett’s marketing genius enabled independent druggists to profit from enhanced store and product identity combined with national advertising. While the cooperative venture endured for decades, the brand name survived even longer. Today, many bright orange and blue Rexall Drug signs remain on buildings across the U.S. because of their iconic appeal.
In 1898, 23-year old Liggett was working out of Boston, Massachusetts, urging the retail drug trade to sell a bottled tonic called “Vinol” made from wine and cod livers. The nostrum had been sold on the open market with only fair success until Liggett fielded the idea for a limited franchise plan that would help eliminate the self-destructive practice of price cutting. Approaching the leading druggist in each town, Liggett offered an agency contract for Vinol. In return, the drugstore would enjoy company sponsored local and national advertising as well as a monopoly on repeat sales in his area. The plan was well received and proved to be a winner.
In retrospect, the corporate philosophies that guided Rexall over the decades were of two schools, each reflecting leadership of the men that successively charted the firm’s course. Louis Liggett focused on cooperative manufacturing and distribution of drugstore merchandise to his own chain and to franchised independent dealers. Justin Dart, consistent with the times, saw the need for diversification, and eventually regarded the retail sector as burdened with profit-eating overhead. He eliminated company-owned stores and personnel that were judged to be of marginal value. Dart also ventured into new manufacturing and distribution areas such as plastics and direct sales that were sometimes phenomenally successful, such as Tupperware, and sometimes not, like the Vanda Beauty Counselor enterprise that failed to rival Avon.
http://capnrexall.blogspot.com/2011/06/rexall-history-short-version.html
‘Charles Penan of Miami-based debt brokerage Aztec Group, noted the bank has the ability to make very large loans and offer non-recourse financing, which is unusual in the development lending business today.’
Oh…
‘Carson Block, a well-known short seller who made a name for himself exposing fraud in Chinese companies, warned in a presentation in 2016 that Ozarks is overexposed to commercial real estate and construction lending in particular. He said the bank had too many unfunded balance sheet commitments’
…dear. And the other “highly speculative” market this bank is up to their eyeballs in? New York City!
It would be fun to short Bank of the Ozarks, but the problem is twofold: First, stocks behave irrationally. Second - bailouts. There’s no way to know if a bailout will happen, subsequently initiating a massive short squeeze to wipe you out.
I have a huge list of companies whose stock prices I believe are in for massive falls. But I don’t know how to safely short them without getting wiped out by insiders and manipulators.
There are lots of ways to fail at short selling even if a company is due for a downgrade, or even if it is an out-and-out fraud. There was some Chinese listed companies on the NASDAQ that have been famously shorted and when details were highlighted to the SEC the SEC suspended trading. The problem then becomes that the market is frozen and the short-seller has to keep borrowing to pay the investor who lent the shares. Ironically, if the company “goes to zero” the short-sell bet can not pay off.
“I have a huge list of companies whose stock prices I believe are in for massive falls. But I don’t know how to safely short them without getting wiped out by insiders and manipulators.”
I recommend you look into options, specifically long term out-of-the-money puts. They don’t have the disadvantages of shorting stock, most importantly the most one can lose is the cost of the contract.
“I have a huge list of companies whose stock prices I believe are in for massive falls. But I don’t know how to safely short them without getting wiped out by insiders and manipulators.”
The fed.gov policy for the past 10-yrs has been, “get shorty.”
When you are in a really weak position, as soon as you let the shorts make any money, you get full, crushing price discovery, correct?
The Chinese regulators just halt trading and prevent stocks from going down too much.
We are still a long way off from a normal market.
Powell’s Fed Isn’t About to End the ‘Greenspan Put’
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-13/powell-s-fed-isn-t-about-to-end-the-greenspan-put
OK, who should bee on Capitali$t version of a U$D $ouvenir i$$ue$, Warren of Omahaha? … $ir Greenis$pent of the village$ of Exuberance … Madame Yellenbuck$ of the Ca$tle of Zero% …
Karl Marx €0 bills are red hot
by Alanna Petroff CNN Money April 19, 2018: 12:45 PM ET
The German city of Trier is selling thousands of souvenir bank notes with a face value of zero euros in honor of Karl Marx, revolutionary, political philosopher and author of “The Communist Manifesto.”
The city’s tourism department is selling the bills for €3 each to mark Marx’s 200th birthday on May 5.
His writings were borrowed, interpreted and adopted by political movements around the world, in countries such as Russia, Cuba and China.
Marx published “The Communist Manifesto” with Friedrich Engels in 1848, considered the most famous pamphlet in the history of the socialist movement.
Harriett Tubman?
MLK Jr?
Lebron James?
Oprah?
Krugman bucks:
Paul Krugman is an Idiot | The Patriot Perspective
https://thepatriotperspective.wordpress.com/tag/paul-krugman-is-an-idiot/
Drudge has a link to Krugman’s piece at the NYT as his big headline today. Why? Because Krugman, ever the idiot that he is, is rambling on about a 91% tax …
Krugman Struggles to Admit Hes an Idiot - YouTube
Video for krugman idiot
▶ 1:04
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ne5m36qujs4
Feb 13, 2013 - Uploaded by pmpowell001
Clip from a debate between former Congressman Ron Paul and Economists Paul Krugman. … he actually …
Paul Krugman: Meet the World’s Worst Economist - Investment U
https://www.investmentu.com/article/…/paul-krugman-meet-worlds-worst-economist
Oct 27, 2014 - Paul Krugman has written more than a dozen books over the last 20 years and, with the luxury of hindsight, all the erroneous predictions, …
Paul Krugman, village idiot speaks revealing his ignorance….
https://247sports.com/…/Paul-Krugman-village-idiot-speaks-revealing-his-ignorance-1...
Jan 17, 2018 - Paul Krugman, village idiot speaks revealing his ignorance. … Paul Krugman: Conservative Protest of Left-Wing Politics Reveals ‘Ignorance,’ …
Starring: Paul Krugman As ‘The Idiot’ & Justin Wolfers As ‘The Hack …
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/…/starring-paul-krugman-idiot-justin-wolfers-hack
Nov 10, 2016 - Paul Krugman, notable ‘expert’ on all things economic has almost 2 million followers on Twitter and an op-ed with the NY Times. This means he …
What do libertarians think of Paul Krugman? - Quora
https://www.quora.com/What-do-libertarians-think-of-Paul-Krugman
Paul Krugman and the Obama Recovery. Krugman is a great economic theorist – and a great polemicist. But he …. It’s well-settled that Krugman is an idiot.
Paul Krugman, Idiot of the New York Times - Imgur
https://imgur.com/gallery/8vNqZY8
Oct 17, 2017 - Tagged with new york times, krugman, paul krugman, thefailingnewyorktimes; Shared by hankhayes. Paul Krugman, Idiot of the New York …
Niall Ferguson: Why Paul Krugman should never be taken seriously …
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk › Coffee House
Oct 13, 2013 - In his widely read New York Times column and blog, Krugman regularly ….. a figure like Matt O’Brien to call anyone a “disingenuous idiot”?
Which Nobel Economists Are Idiots? - Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2012/09/…/which-nobel-economists-are-idiots/
Sep 19, 2012 - Liberal-leaning Paul Krugman believes some fellow Nobel … under a cloud and exposes governments to the risk of pursuing idiotic policies.
Would you take investment advice from Paul Krugman?
https://www.americanthinker.com/…/would_you_take_investment_advice_from_paul...
Dec 31, 2017 - Sanders referenced Krugman’s Nov 9, 2016 declaration that “if the … has since transformed himself into an idiot, utterly ignorant of market …
Let’s see if Mr. Bear has any po$$ible candidate$, … “Oh Mr. Bear …”
Alexander Hamilton?
Oh wait…
I would vote for Jack Welch, outsourcer extraordinaire.
Tubman already has dibs on the real $20 bill.
To erase Andrew Jackson is to embrace financial slavery to the banking system. I expect most debt donkeys would welcome any symbol they could more comfortably identify with.
Poway, CA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Housing Depreciation Ravages Homeowners
https://www.zillow.com/poway-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
I have some work needed on my house and it is impossible to find anyone. All painters, general contractors, landscapers, etc are telling me they are booked 4-6 weeks out. That is if they even answer the phone. For all the talk here of housing’s imminent collapse and $60k trucks going on sale for $20k….I am not seeing any hints of it. These guys have more work than they can handle right now.
Makes sense considering housing construction amounts to 11% of total construction dollar volume. Housing dying a slow death has little impact on anything.
‘These guys have more work than they can handle right now’
It was like that in Sedona around 2004-2005.
We’re at the bubble peak right now, so the wall of money, aka Yellenbucks, is washing over the entire eCONomy. This should come as no surprise to anyone who remembers 2005-2006. In fact, it’s the impetus for many to call BS on the whole charade.
I remember well the peak last time. I looked around and knew there was no way everybody else in the country was all of a sudden wealthy and could afford insane house prices while I wasn’t. That’s what led me to Ben’s blog in 2005.
This time it’s different.
Every fifth lawn in my neighborhood hasn’t been mowed since last fall. Maybe the reason is that my neighborhood has no HOA to pressure homeowners. Landscapers are concentrating on maintaining the newer, richer, and HOA’d neighborhoods, where they can charge more. Meanwhile 1/5 of my street has gone to seed.
Having a HOA I can tell you they are filled with lawn Nazis. I have never been fined but have received a few warning letters over ridiculous things. However it does keep the neighbors in line. Still when I move after retirement, I am not going to an area with a HOA.
“These guys have more work than they can handle right now.”
I saw that movie in 2005.
When the work stops some of these contractors, but less than you think will have money in the bank.
When the work (and cash flow) stops others, and more than you think will be unable to pay their labor and material bills.
“…and $60k trucks going on sale for $20k…”
I just rode my bicycle thru a 5-yr/old development this weekend. This neighborhood is your basic 3/2, 1500-sqft spec homes. Every other home has a late model 4-dr pickup truck sitting on the driveway with a lift kit and custom wheels and of course the Seattle Seahawks decal adorning the sliding rear window. These are working class guys leveraged up to their eye teeth, chewing or smoking, etc., you get the idea. Most of them are young enough that they’ve never experienced a real recession yet.
Reader here but very rarely post.
I really need another dose of sanity here. I thought about buying 13 years ago and couldn’t figure out how people were affording to purchase. Luckily found this blog. Amazed the bubbling has gone on for so long and nobody has shouted the “emperor has no clothes.” So just started socking what I had into the 401K.
Am in New England renting one of 2 places in a house, month to month. The house is over 100 years old and has as the “quirks” that an old house has – slanting floors, etc. The landlord informed me the house was being put up for sale. Records indicate the house is paid in full. (Believe house purchased by parents and is paid off as monthly check written to Trust.) I hate having to move, and insanely thought about buying rather than moving. However ultimately want to relocate to another state.
There is some “puffery” in the listing. Each unit is listed as having 2 bedrooms. My understanding is that a bedroom is a room with a door and a closet. So…no, my place ONLY has one bedroom. (Even with a door, the room would end up being a “walkthrough” bedroom. ) My kitchen is listed as being redone. Uh, no, it’s a standard rental kitchen in an older home– but there is no dishwasher, regular rental linoleum on the floor, and only 2 kitchen cupboards. I think it is more of being “redone” as things obviously wore out over 100 years. There is some awful wallpaper from the 1970s and in one room there is paint over wallpaper.
The wiring is 100 amps and though I don’t know anything about wiring, to me that would be a concern. I have power strips all over the place and several appliances, including the washing machine, have converters on them so can go from 3 prongs to 2 prongs. (No sure how to phase that but hopefully get drift.) One light “switch” is actually still a “push button.”
One glaring thing is the house only has one driveway where about 2 cars can be parked. I park in the landlord’s large driveway as lives next door. This could be an issue as the town has a street parking ban in the winter. I cannot figure how another space could be added on the front lawn with a sidewalk being there.
The asking price is $375K. Yearly rental amount is $26K though supposedly the rents are “below market” and the tenants ‘want to stay.’ The yearly taxes are $5K. I’ve learned a little on the board but enough to know that this place as a rental would NOT cash flow, correct? From what I’ve learned from here, you have to ‘make your money’ when you buy it and don’t count on appreciation.
Yesterday another sign appeared on the front lawn about getting financing from a specific mortgage company. This is a first for me, because in this area I don’t recall seeing this on other lawns.
This past Sunday there was an open house and got the “so nice if you weren’t here” message. Had to make myself scarce. Realize the landlord wants to sell (and is a nice landlord) but there is a right to ‘quiet enjoyment.’ It’s not my job to stage the place – I LIVE here.
Great, just got a text message from whom I think is the realtor there is a showing for a prospective buyer – less than 24 hour notice.
Why buy it when you can rent it for half the monthly cost?
Buy later after prices crater (and the crimes are exposed) for 75% less.
The fun begins. Mine seemed nice, too. He doesn’t care about you.
You might ask for a rent reduction for the rest of your time there to make up for the inconvenience. One of my LL’s did reduce the rent. Just asking another one set him off - all downhill from there.
1. You actually thought about buying this place…?
2. You have rights as a tenet - if the landlord was smart he would throw a little cash your way for the burden he is putting on you.
Or you could hang out in your underwear eating some sauerkraut and Limburger cheese while the open house is going on…
And that cheese better be the size of a car battery!
Seriously, I was already jonesing for some arame seaweed and ginger sauerkraut, now I’m on a mission to get that ASAP.
100 year old shack? Lol. A good rule of thumb is think seriously about buying anything older than you.
Serling,
It’s been my experience that when a property exchanges hands, it will probably need to be brought up to code. So likely the house will need to be rewired - you could call an electrical contractor to get a ball park estimate.
If it’s 100 years old, the sewage pipes are at the end of their useful life, also it’s highly likely that the the pipes going to the main sewage pipe at the street will need to be replaced as well.
If the floors are slanting, you could have a rotting foundation which would mean lifting up the house and redoing the foundation.
And we haven’t even begun talking about the roof and bad updates since the house was built.
Given what’s going on, I’d get very serious about getting a new place to live - it might actually take you to a better place.
Head south,ne is losing $ n people
“The asking price is $375K. Yearly rental amount is $26K though supposedly the rents are “below market” and the tenants ‘want to stay.”
100 year$$$$$$$$ old?
(Oh, it will ca$h flow, just in a manner your $avings might knot re$pect)
Get a bottle of Irish Knot, & carefully contemplating a $trategy of KNOT buying it, $eriously. (Hwy50’s 2 cent$.4free)
be$t.of.luck, serling
the tenants ‘want to stay.”
I’d look at the lease to see if the landlord was allowed to bring in pickpockets and grifters to peruse your valuables on demand. If he can, best for you to delay and move ASAP. Really sounds quite messy.
Here’s my $0.02 on older homes.
Our local area experienced HELOCs on a large scale, and when the bubble burst the builders continued to lower their prices on new spec homes well below what the older places were going for in town. And when you go to buy property insurance you’ll find that newer spec homes are much cheaper to insure too.
My understanding is that a bedroom is a room with a door and a closet.
in NYC it must have an operable window
Can you possibly wait until the onset of the next recession to buy? Your patience could be rewarded with a price discount worth several years of salary.
Moving is tough, but staying will be much worse. Reading your post, all I could hear was Cha-Ching: $10K of wiring, $10K of wall and plaster work, $20K of foundation work, $40K new kitchen, $15 K to update plumbing, who knows what the sewer system looks like, you didn’t even mention the bathrooms.
Would you be buying the entire house or just the half? Buying the half is stupid, and if you buy the whole house, that’s another $20K to convert two units back into one, and fix the bedroom issue.
Don’t do it. Move. It’s not that bad.
And if you want to move to another state, you shouldn’t be buying at all.
Hey Donk.
Shirley, MA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Housing Correction Descends On New England
https://www.movoto.com/shirley-ma/market-trends/
Walton’$ / Walmart$ import Chinese Crap$, but they ban our U$’$crap … $ad!
China trash ban is a global recycling wake up call
by Ivana Kottasová CNN Money
April 20, 2018: 11:08 AM ET
“The Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries said 31% of America’s scrap commodity exports was sent to China in 2017. In the UK, almost all of recycled plastic used to be sent to China and Hong Kong for processing.”
“Some low-grade materials, plastic especially, that are collected at curbside in the UK have proved more difficult to move, because there isn’t a market to move all of this material,” he said, adding these materials are currently stuck in storage facilities, while some might be burned, rather than recycled.”
All right where’s the dog?
Hurry, hurry, hurry … (get that outdoor pizza oven installed, like tomorrow dude!)
Thinking of selling your home? Do it before 2020, economists say
By Jacob Passy, MarketWatch
Published: May 22, 2018 12:41 p.m. ET
“While the housing bubble prompted the last rece$$ion, expert$ generally agreed that real e$tate won’t play a major role in the next one.”
“Instead, the expert$ predicted that monetary policy will be the deciding factor this time around. In particular, they argued that the Federal Re$erve could prompt slower growth if it raises short-term interest rates too quickly. Other concerns the housing expert$ and economist$ raised included trade policy, a stock market correction and an unexpected $pike in inflation. Meanwhile, concerns surround a geopolitical crisis, which were at the top of their list last year, have $ubsided.”
Anybody think Trump will put a stop to foreign investors buying up real estate in the US? In DC Metro, I’ve been to open houses where Chinese unable to speak English other than “all cash” to the broker.
There are also an abundance of rentals owned by ??? which depletes the housing supply and adds to the LOW INVENTORY.
‘Trump will put a stop to foreign investors’
This seems unlikely. As much as he’s MAGA, he’s all RE. It’d be antithetical for him.
As I said before, if you reduce the Chinese trade surplus you will seriously slow overseas real estate sales
Alameda, CA Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY As Speculators Flood Market With Inventory
https://www.zillow.com/alameda-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Did your corporate bonds bomb this year?
PS GSE-issued debt is subject to the same issues described below, except that it has a federal guarantee. Not sure if it applies to both principle and interest, though.
The Financial Times
Corporate bonds
US corporate bonds have worst start to year in decades
Negative returns reflect rising interest rates and issuance by weaker borrowers
…
Thinking of selling your home? Do it before 2020, economists say
By Jacob Passy
Published: May 22, 2018 10:24 p.m. ET
A panel of economic and housing experts sees a dip in house prices on the horizon
…
Another sign the Housing Bubble has started leaking some air: McMansions have stopped biggering and biggering and biggering!
Why the American Dream of owning a big home is way overrated, in one chart
By Shawn Langlois
Published: May 22, 2018 5:47 a.m. ET
Courtesy of Rogers & Cowan
Do you NEED this much space?
From 1978 through 2015, the median size of the single-family home increased every year until it peaked at 2,467 square feet, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Then, in 2016, that number began to shrink, albeit ever so slightly.
So, are we finally coming to our senses about McMansions?
…
Did your emerging market bets all of a sudden submerge?
The Financial Times
Currencies
Turkish lira sell-off accelerates after warnings
Investors push for central bank to defy Erdogan after second day of sharp declines
3 hours ago
…
Italian politics
Italian markets rumbled by political turbulence
Bond prices resume their downward path and bank stocks sell off
new 47 minutes ago
…
Emerging markets feel the pain as dollar, Treasury yields rise
By Anneken Tappe
Published: May 22, 2018 3:41 p.m. ET
Are Argentina and Turkey the first dominoes?
…
commercial re review
apts- hosed
office Totally hosed
Medical - soon to be hosed- my wife used online doc,said it was way cool
student - hosed
industrial- not too hosed , for now
industrial- not too hosed , for now
Until all the hosed people above stop buying stuff?