May 24, 2018

The Party Is Over And The Hangover Is Just Beginning

A report from the Toronto Star in Canada. “New construction home sales hit the lowest number for April in over 20 years, says the association that represents home builders. Newly built single-family home prices dropped 5 per cent year over year to $1.15 million, down from about $1.2 million in March. There were 65 per cent fewer houses and condos sold last month compared to April 2017. That put the sales of single-family homes — detached, semi-detached and townhouses — 70 per cent below the 10-year average. Condos were 38 per cent below that average, according to the Building and Land Development Association.”

“Although new home data by Altus Group goes back only as far as 2000, BILD said previous data shows 1995-1996 was the last time April sales were as low as the 1,727 last month. The new construction home industry is being affected by many of the same factors that have led to a sluggish 2018 in re-sale real estate in the Toronto area, said BILD CEO David Wilkes. Part of the slowdown is seasonal, he said. There is a lull in the housing market compounded by interventions from government and new mortgage stress test rules introduced by Canada’s banking regulator. ‘We’re in a bit of a pause right now,’ said Wilkes. ‘People are reassessing and part of that reassessment, no doubt, stems from the affordability issue we need to address within the GTA.’”

From Bloomberg on the UK. “Lance Paul put his home in West London on the market last May with a 1.5 million-pound (US$2 million) price tag. A year on, the retired animator is asking 1.1 million pounds and still hasn’t found a buyer. Now, after dozens of viewings that came to nothing and a few low-ball bids, the 71-year-old has an offer that’s agonizingly close to the floor he promised himself he would never go below. He just might accept it. ‘The fear from my point of view is because things are volatile, it could go down even further,’ Paul said.”

“Similar deliberations are playing out across London as sellers weigh whether to take what they can get in a falling market or sit tight in the hope the slump will be short-lived. ‘The party is over for the London housing market and the hangover is just beginning,’ said Neal Hudson, founder of research firm Residential Analysts.”

From the Sofia News Agency on Bulgaria. “The luxury property market in Bulgaria is moderately high during the first quarter of 2018, according to an analysis by Unique Estates. Activity during the first three months was mainly in the lower price segment - up to 300-350,000 euros. Buyers are mainly people with free capital who are interested in homes which they can renovate, and resell them at a later price. ‘In recent years, this type of purchase has gained popularity among people looking for a lucrative investment. Recently, however, this kind of offers are rarer and this limits the potential for deals,’ commented Galina Grodova, senior partner at Unique Estates.”

“In the middle price segment of the luxury market - 500-800,000 euros, transactions in the first quarter were significantly less. The increased supply of rental properties has led to a drop in prices over the last year. Then there was a growing interest, especially in apartments in the center of Sofia, because of the EU Presidency. Many homes have been rented in advance, and this has led to high activity in the market, which continued until the autumn of 2017. In recent months, however, the demand has fallen to its usual levels. At the same time, the peak of investment purchases led to a further oversupply of the rental market, so prices in many areas went down.”

From the Daily Star on India. “Kaniz Fatima Binte Alam, a doctor, took Tk 48.50 lakh home loan at 8.5 percent interest in October last year from a lender with expertise in financing homes. Within six months, Fatima was astonished to get the lender’s notification that the interest rate has been revised to 12.5 percent, nearly 50 percent hike, effective from March this year. ‘Now it has become very difficult for me to repay the loan,’ she said.”

“It is not only home loans, interest rates have been increased for all loan products, be it industrial, SMEs or trade financing, jacking up their cost of doing business. The increase is by two to four percentage points, according to data of a number of banks. Interest rate for industrial loans has gone up as high as 16 percent, which was 12 percent a year ago. No bank is offering SME loans under 15 percent interest. Even at that high rates, many banks cannot lend because of liquidity crisis.”

“‘We are collecting term deposits at 10.5 percent now from seven percent last year,’ said Arif Khan, managing director of IDLC. Even though authorities concerned are pressing lenders to bring down the interest rate to single digits, it is not possible for them because of high cost of deposits, he said, blaming high-interest saving instruments. Like bankers, he does not see any possibility of lending interest rates going down in the near future. ‘Bad loans are another factor that makes new loans expensive,’ Arif said.”

From the Vietnam Bridge. “Investors continue pouring money into the high-end apartment market segment, even though there is a sufficient supply. With the selling price of VND45 million per square meter at minimum, the number of target customers is not high. By the end of the first quarter of 2017, nearly 30,000 apartments of this kind had been marketed in the eastern part of HCM City alone. Buyers from Hanoi could partially ease the oversupply, but it is still not enough.”

“There is no official report about the number of apartments sold to those who have real demand for apartments. However, the figure is estimated at roughly 30 percent. The government in early 2018 showed its determination to obtain a GDP growth rate of 6.5-6.7 percent this year. Analysts warn that the high GDP growth rate may lead to a ‘real estate bubble’ like the one in 2007 and 2010. The bubble was created by a high GDP growth rate and loose credit policy.”

“GDP in 2007 grew sharply by 8.48 percent, while HCM City gained an impressive 12.6 percent growth rate, the highest level in 10 years. Currently, real estate credit accounts for 10.8 percent of total outstanding loans in HCM City. Nguyen Van Duc, deputy director of Dat Lanh Real Estate, said the real estate market is ‘fragile’. Negative signs in the market appeared after the fire at Carina apartment block. After the accident, speculators rushed to sell products. However, despite the price decreases, there have been few transactions.”

From Stuff New Zealand. “A bankrupt businessman’s Auckland housing development is up for mortgagee sale as creditors chase millions of dollars in unpaid bills. The housing development in the North Shore suburb of Birkenhead sits near the site of a major landslide that swallowed an Auckland Council-owned carpark in October last year. Chelsea View Estate Trust sole director Stephen Robert Kelly was made bankrupt in October 2017 - his second time being bankrupt since 2011. Kelly said: ‘It’s got nothing to do with me, mate,’ before hanging up on Stuff.”

“Kelly was first made bankrupt in 2008 with personal debts of more than $28 million. His ‘hopeless financial position’ arose from his interest in a number of significant property developments that stalled or faced considerable problems, Justice Raynor Asher said at the time.”

From Domain News on Australia. “There is no doubt that Brisbane’s apartment market has suffered over the past few years. Amid the alarming headlines of plummeting approvals and collapsed developments, the impact on sales and prices is very real. Data from the Domain Group shows Brisbane’s median unit price has fallen every quarter since June 2016 and is now sitting at a four-year low. The latest figures show prices dropped by nearly 3 per cent in the 12 months leading up to March this year and, looking further afield to include Greater Brisbane, the figures are even more glum: units fell by 4.3 per cent in the three months to March 2018 alone.”

“Across town, prices are (often reluctantly) being reduced to meet the market. Recently it was reported a Brisbane unit development had resorted to huge price cuts to move the last of its units – prices for Belise apartments in Fortitude Valley were slashed nearly 25 per cent. In Kelvin Grove, units in the Urban Village that were valued at $450,000 two years ago are now going for $399,000.”

“LJ Hooker New Farm agent Pauline Karatau says she is contacted every week by unit owners desperate for her to sell their property. ‘There are a lot of people hurting. I get emails from them every week,’ she says. ‘You know they paid well over the odds and it’s hard.’”




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154 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-05-24 07:40:45

‘Kelly was first made bankrupt in 2008 with personal debts of more than $28 million. His ‘hopeless financial position’ arose from his interest in a number of significant property developments that stalled or faced considerable problems’

Wa? You guys have said for years that there was no bubble in New Zealand back then. It was just the US that caused the “Great Financial Crisis”. Now that I think about it, the same goes for Canada, Australia, China, pretty much everywhere.

Comment by palmetto
2018-05-24 07:52:59

It’s all been global, and has been for a while, hasn’t it? And people wonder why there’s such a kickback against globalism. Because it sucks so profusely for ordinary citizens who are not sucking the gummint teat, that’s why.

Globalization is another word for international crime wave. It’s amazing how pervasive it is. World governments are nothing more than facilitators of the crime wave, interlocking relationships. When the pundits and journalists tell you how “interdependent” nations are, and don’t upset the apple cart, they’re nothing more than PR flaks for the mobsters.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-05-24 08:00:11

‘When the CIA Infiltrated a Presidential Campaign’

‘Hunt retired from the CIA in 1970 and was hired by the White House in 1972 to lead a unit known as the Plumbers that was dedicated to plugging leaks within the Nixon administration, playing dirty tricks on Nixon’s opponents and obtaining political intelligence. Years later, Hunt justified his actions by comparing them to the CIA’s spying on Goldwater. His logic was that if it was OK to use surreptitious methods to obtain political intelligence on behalf of one president, it was acceptable to do the same for another president. “Since I’d done it once before for the CIA, why wouldn’t I do it again [inside Watergate in June 1972] for the White House?” Hunt explained to the New York Times in late December 1974.’

Comment by palmetto
2018-05-24 08:34:18

Yep, they’ve been at this crap for a very long time. And now it’s time for them to exit the scene, I don’t care how. If ever there existed a bunch of useless global parasites, the CIA is it. As Ron Paul said, time to abolish. The world would be a much better place.

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Comment by palmetto
2018-05-24 08:42:23

More on John Brennan:

https://spectator.org/john-brennans-plot-to-infiltrate-the-trump-campaign/

“A veteran of the intelligence community tells TAS that Brennan’s CIA was full of Hillary supporters, some of whom decorated their desks with her campaign paraphernalia. Brennan, whom the press noted would walk the halls of the CIA in an LGBT rainbow lanyard, encouraged this open political atmosphere. While Brennan knew his spying operation on the Trump campaign was an “exceptionally, exceptionally sensitive” matter (as reported by journalists David Corn and Michael Isikoff), he assumed its machinations would never come to light.

The members of Brennan’s working group at Langley “were just a bunch of out-of-control idiots,” says a former high-ranking CIA official to TAS. He finds it flabbergasting that Brennan would bring CIA officials and FBI officials into the same room to cook up schemes to send a spy into the Trump campaign’s ranks. One of those schemes involved money (Halper paid George Papadopoulos $3,000 for a phony research paper as a way of luring him into a London meeting); another involved sex (Halper’s assistant, with a name out of a bad spy novel, Azra Turk, tried to coax information from Papadopoulos at flirty bar outings, according to the Daily Caller’s Chuck Ross).”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWeG6Ea84zg

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Comment by oxide
2018-05-24 10:50:10

Brennan’s CIA was full of Hillary supporters, some of whom decorated their desks with her campaign paraphernalia.

Which is a clear violation of the Hatch Act of 1939. Federal employees are prohibited from engaging in political activity* in the Fed office, including wearing campaign buttons. AND the CIA is under even stricter rules than other garden-variety Feds. Penalties range from a reprimand to termination.

These CIA employees must have been very arrogant and smug indeed if they thought they could get away with open displays of political paraphernalia.

——————
*discussions and opinions are allowed, but not official campaigning. Most of my office is scared stiff. We take it outside.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-05-24 11:08:23

Hey Donk

 
Comment by tresho
2018-05-24 11:40:18

a clear violation of the Hatch Act of 1939
Piffle, those “violations” are only used against the little people. TPTB live by a different standard.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-05-24 07:45:35

‘There is no official report about the number of apartments sold to those who have real demand for apartments. However, the figure is estimated at roughly 30 percent.’

‘With the selling price of VND45 million per square meter at minimum, the number of target customers is not high. By the end of the first quarter of 2017, nearly 30,000 apartments of this kind had been marketed in the eastern part of HCM City alone’

https://xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=VND

45,000,000.00 VND = 1,975.41 USD

That’s a lot of Dong.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-05-24 07:51:54

Mr. Banker is cutting jobs …

http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/24/investing/deutsche-bank-job-cuts/index.html

Germany’s biggest bank is slashing more than 7,000 jobs.

 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-05-24 07:55:18

Greenwich, CT Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As Top-End Housing Prices Plunge Globally

https://www.zillow.com/greenwich-ct/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

 
Comment by Salinasron
2018-05-24 08:00:14

My beautiful wife of 36 years passed away (pancreatic cancer) on Saturday morning the 19th. I’m so happy for her that we were able after 8 years of renting to purchase in the low of 2012 with a 2.875% mortgage. She passed peaceful at home.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-05-24 08:29:25

A loved ones passing is never easy.

 
Comment by palmetto
2018-05-24 08:31:55

Ron, my warmest wishes to you and to her as well, wherever she may be. And major kudos to you for providing her with a stable environment in her final days.

 
Comment by Mike
2018-05-24 08:45:43

So sorry to hear.
Hope you reach out for support to get you through this

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-05-24 09:22:47

I so sorry to hear of her passing and your loss.

 
Comment by Sean
2018-05-24 09:33:04

My deepest condolences, Ron. Hoping you find strength during this difficult time.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-05-24 09:43:28

:-(

 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2018-05-24 09:45:42

“She passed peaceful at home.”

& blessed that she had you with her in that sheltered space.

Kindest thoughts to you & yearns Salinasron

Comment by oxide
2018-05-25 05:59:34

I second this.

 
 
Comment by Lurker
2018-05-24 10:04:01

My condolences for your loss.

 
Comment by qt
2018-05-24 10:15:05

I’m so sorry for your loss. May she rest in peace.

 
Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2018-05-24 10:18:49

I’m so sorry. It’s wonderful you had the strength to care for her at home and allow her to pass away in a familiar, peaceful and comfortable place 😌

 
Comment by snake charmer
2018-05-24 11:06:43

Very sorry about your wife’s passing.

 
Comment by jeff
2018-05-24 11:45:06

My heart goes out to you, in time I pray your memories give you peace and comfort.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-05-24 12:50:46

I am truly sorry for your loss.

 
 
Comment by serling
2018-05-24 15:18:18

Salinasron,

I am so sorry for your loss. You were blessed to have 36 years with her. Thankfully she had a peaceful passing at home. My you find comfort in your memories.

I have faith (belief systems will differ) so I believe she is now inhabiting one of the “many mansions” there.

***
Cancer - I’ve lost friends, acquaintances and pets to cancer. I am a cancer ’survivor’ as I was ‘fortunate’ to get a cancer with an 80% survival rate-unlike pancreatic cancer.

 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-05-24 17:55:13

She passed peaceful at home…

Peace to you also Ron. You are not alone.

You are perhaps to be envied, having had it would seem what many never get a chance to experience.

 
Comment by Lemming with an innertube
2018-05-24 18:23:05

Condolences to you on your dear wife’s passing. Words cannot express the heartfelt sympathy for you at this difficult time. May you find peace and comfort in your memories of the life you shared together.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2018-05-24 18:26:52

My condolences.

 
Comment by rms
2018-05-24 18:45:37

“My beautiful wife of 36 years passed away…”

Ron, please accept my sincere condolences. I glad that you were right there by her side until the end. Terrible news.

 
Comment by jeff
2018-05-24 21:22:15

Almost a year ago I lost someone who used to listen to this song, she was young and hearing it would annoy me. After we lost her I listened to it and other songs she loved quite a bit, it gave me something to do when I was alone and crying. Now I listen to this one every so often just to feel close to her but it still brings tears to my eyes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fesv7_fXvs

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-05-24 21:56:31

I am so sorry Jeff for your loss. I am so glad that music helps you remember and grieve. This happens to be one of my favorite songs for very personal reasons as well.

 
 
Comment by CryptoNick
2018-05-24 23:30:51

So sorry. My first cousin, who is older than me by one month, unfortunately has the same disease.

 
 
Comment by Daz
2018-05-24 08:10:40

Existing Home Sales tumble 2.5% in April. Low inventory blamed by realtors again. From what I see there’s plenty of houses for sale in South Orange County, California. More and more coming online everyday. Lots of price drops too! Feel sorry for anyone who recently purchased a million dollar tract home. They’ll be stuck in it for a long time!

Comment by taxpayers
2018-05-24 09:02:06

land is tight in -south bend-akron- tupilo- elkhart
fill in blank of sub 100k pop cities surrounded by endless land

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-05-24 09:30:12

“Feel sorry for anyone who recently purchased a million dollar tract home. They’ll be stuck in it for a long time!”

They can always walk away. It’s the smart thing to do.

As far as land goes, If you paid more than $500-$1000/acre, you paid too much. There is a globe full of land where 95% of it goes undeveloped. Land is essentially worthless dirt.

 
Comment by Get Stucco
2018-05-25 00:04:07

Nobody put a gun to their heads and forced them to buy at the second Housing Bubble peak.

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-05-24 08:24:37

Imperial Beach, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Coastal Property Market Implodes

https://www.movoto.com/imperial-beach-ca/market-trends/

 
Comment by taxpayers
2018-05-24 09:00:34

I dumped Canada etf as $70 oil won’t save them
the bubble is bigger problem

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-05-24 09:06:12

Realtors are liars.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-05-24 09:09:05

‘Kaniz Fatima Binte Alam, a doctor, took Tk 48.50 lakh home loan at 8.5 percent interest in October last year from a lender with expertise in financing homes. Within six months, Fatima was astonished to get the lender’s notification that the interest rate has been revised to 12.5 percent, nearly 50 percent hike, effective from March this year. ‘Now it has become very difficult for me to repay the loan,’ she said.’

‘Like bankers, he does not see any possibility of lending interest rates going down in the near future. ‘Bad loans are another factor that makes new loans expensive’

Note how this is self reinforcing.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-05-24 10:11:45

So even with 8.5% adjustable rate loans, India had a bubble.

 
Comment by Happy lurker
2018-05-25 06:23:21

Looks like that’s in Bangladesh, Ben…

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-05-25 07:12:52

A distinction without a difference.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-05-24 09:11:55

‘a Brisbane unit development had resorted to huge price cuts to move the last of its units – prices for Belise apartments in Fortitude Valley were slashed nearly 25 per cent. In Kelvin Grove, units in the Urban Village that were valued at $450,000 two years ago are now going for $399,000.’

‘agent Pauline Karatau says she is contacted every week by unit owners desperate for her to sell their property. ‘There are a lot of people hurting. I get emails from them every week,’ she says. ‘You know they paid well over the odds and it’s hard.’

‘had resorted to huge price cuts to move the last of its units’

So you are saying this developer sold these airboxes at a discount knowing it would bankrupt its own customers?

Comment by b
2018-05-24 09:20:20

Are folks still confused that there will be a reckoning?

Many of the larger companies are based in Melbourne. co-workers based there keep saying how expensive prices are - and that they are not coming down.

Is the general population confused - unless they are the ones directly suffering from overpayment.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-05-24 09:33:09

I’m sure that from their perspective shack prices have done nothing but go up much faster than inflation in the past 20+ years. It’s the same here in the US. Sure, we had the crash 10 years ago, but for the most part prices didn’t fall that much and they began to rise again after just a few short years and are now higher than ever.

There are a lot of people who have no memory of affordable housing prices. The notion that you could buy a decent home for 2X of a blue collar paycheck (say a forklift driver) must seem at best like a fairy tale to them. Prices being unaffordable is normal to this generation. Even when they flee from places like California, wherever they end up is still unaffordable, just less so.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-05-24 09:37:30

To reiterate what I said above, I’ve mentioned the former lunch bunch here (they were all laid off last year). Whenever the topic of prices came up during lunch, it usually involved people saying how much their shack had appreciated, followed by high fives and other forms of mutual congratulations.

Never, not once, did a single one of them ever say “prices are too high, something is very wrong.” Nope. They were (and still are) convinced that prices can only go up.

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-05-24 09:48:51

“… it usually involved people saying how much their shack had appreciated, followed by high fives and other forms of mutual congratulations.”

Bahahaha … these pukes act as they believed they won on their own merits rather than winning due to the buying insanity of a set of total strangers who have somehow got hold of gobs of money that belongs to another set of total strangers.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-05-24 09:56:29

Oh, regarding this buying insanity: In today’s environment this is how wealth is created. Now just how insane is that?

A nation of dummies.

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-05-24 11:12:44

I would rather eat lunch alone in my car than at a table of those idiots.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-05-24 12:29:35

I would rather eat lunch alone in my car than at a table of those idiots.

They were not bad people. Other than having drunk the RE Kool Aid they were OK, possibly the best group of colleagues I’ve had in a long time.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-05-24 12:57:25

The world is full of dumb people/DebtDonkeys. It doesn’t mean they’re bad…. It simply means they’re dumb DebtDonkeys.

 
Comment by oxide
2018-05-24 13:41:13

“They were (and still are) convinced that prices can only go up.”

It is difficult to convince a man of something when his retirement depends on not being convinced.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-05-24 15:09:03

Most of them were dual income, with the partner also making a good salary. In talking with them I learned that most salt away 30-40K every year.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-05-24 15:35:33

Paying 5-10x income or overpaying 4x long term historic price for a rapidly depreciating asset like a house is a death sentence irrespective of income.

 
 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-05-24 18:07:14

we had the crash 10 years ago, but for the most part prices didn’t fall that much…

I think you just contradicted yourself.

The bubble contracted a little, never got anywhere close to the ground.

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Comment by CorporateShill
2018-05-25 05:13:36

I had wondered about this historical home price ratio as well. I remember my parents saying they bought a custom outside of Seattle in the early 1970s for about 35K. I believe his salary was close to that number.

That shack has been improved but is the same house with the basement finished out. It is now ‘valued’ at close to a millUN clams https://www.redfin.com/WA/Issaquah/391-SE-Crystal-Creek-Cir-98027/home/422115

One could say that the area has appreciated due to demand and desirability of the area… That was a pretty sleepy backwater town when we lived there.

Historic avg home prices:
https://www.census.gov/const/uspricemon.pdf

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-05-24 09:36:28

“So you are saying this developer sold these airboxes at a discount knowing it would bankrupt its own customers?”

Hmmmmmm … cutting the prices of unsold units will do nothing to influence the ability of pukes to be able to make payments on similar units they already purchased.

Cutting prices may cause these pukes to REGRET buying the overpriced units but this is not the same thing as driving them into bankruptcy.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-05-24 09:49:01

A good point. That someone else got a deal shouldn’t matter.

‘unit owners desperate for her to sell their property’

So soon?

‘There are a lot of people hurting. I get emails from them every week. You know they paid well over the odds and it’s hard’

‘the 71-year-old has an offer that’s agonizingly close to the floor he promised himself he would never go below. He just might accept it. ‘The fear from my point of view is because things are volatile, it could go down even further’

Behold, no talk of a shortage. Actually it sounds like the opposite. What changed?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-05-24 10:15:33

Unless, of course, those airboxes were purchased (with borrowed money) for speculative purposes.

So:

They’re underwater.
They can’t sell it unless they bring a check to closing.
Until they unload it, it’s a hungry alligator that needs to be fed.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-05-24 10:46:12

“They’re underwater.
They can’t sell it unless they bring a check to closing.”

😁

“Until they unload it, it’s a hungry alligator that needs to be fed.”

😁

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Comment by Sean
2018-05-24 10:48:51

And this way the UHS gets two commissions: One for the purchase and one for the sale. You think they care about your housing situation? Please. It’s a good time to buy AND sell. Just gimmie my commission!

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Comment by redmondjp
2018-05-24 09:32:07

If you don’t want people listening to your private conversations inside your own home, don’t buy listening devices and install them in your home:

https://www.kiro7.com/www.kiro7.com/news/local/woman-says-her-amazon-device-recorded-private-conversation-sent-it-out-to-random-contact/755507974

Of course you ’smart’ phone is also a listening and watching device, so keep that in mind when you set your phone down.

Comment by palmetto
2018-05-24 10:37:50

Yep, I saw that story. The stupidity is deep. It’s not Alexa that is disgusting, it’s people who install it in their homes and then act shocked, I tell you, SHOCKED that it is such a naughty toy.

Comment by snake charmer
2018-05-24 11:14:32

I was at a family gathering recently and everybody thought I was completely tin-foil-hat paranoid for refusing to use one. I asked a relative’s device, point-blank, “is the NSA recording this conversation?” It did not respond.

Comment by tresho
2018-05-24 11:42:48

“is the NSA recording this conversation?” It did not respond.
If you had talked about bombing a federal facility, I suspect somebody would have responded, at some time.

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Comment by oxide
2018-05-24 13:44:34

You asked it the wrong thing. You should have asked it whether it was recording the conversation and flagging for keywords to sell to potential advertisers.

Want to have some fun? Ask a young female friend to say “Alexa, where can I buy vitamins containing folate?”

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Comment by tresho
2018-05-24 14:39:47

I was checking the news on TV and my Alexa suddenly started playing some horrible rock music. I guess it misinterpreted something from the other speaker.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-05-24 16:41:35

At least your Alexa result wasn’t as bad as what this kiddo almost got:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1383687/Alexa-STOP-Software-mishears-kid-offers-dirty-results.html

 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-05-24 18:11:59

I’ve only ever asked Alexa to play Bluegrass Music. She does OK at that. I thought you had to press the microphone button to engage it?

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-05-24 21:58:39

Not sure what device you have, but if you download the Alexa app on a smart phone, you should be able to enable hands-free. Here is how it worked for my device:

https://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=202120490

 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-05-25 05:42:27

Firestick.

 
Comment by tresho
2018-05-25 16:05:32

I thought you had to press the microphone button to engage it?
I have to say, “Alexa, play” + whatever Alexa has to play. Those two words can sound like other things. I believe that is why Alexa picked up something from my TV set. Truly horrible music, if you could call it that.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-05-25 21:17:35

BlueSkye, I don’t have a Firestick as I use our Playstation 3 to access Hulu, Amazon Video, and Netflix. I believe that if you wanted to have hands-free access to Alexa via your Amazon Firestick, you’d have to also have another Alexa device (Amazon Echo, Amazon Dot, Amazon Tap, etc.).

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-05-24 10:58:17

Some builders are installing these sorts of devices in new construction:

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/05/22/amazon-alexa-lennar-homes/

Alexa, what are you doing in my house? Lennar Homes is building Amazon’s digital assistant into all its new homes, including a subdivision in Aurora

Comment by BlackSwandive
2018-05-24 12:43:22

The NSA is licking its chops. Surveillance built into every new home.

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-05-24 11:15:42

See also:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/may/24/facebook-accused-of-conducting-mass-surveillance-through-its-apps

And for the FB spies reading this, Zuckerberg is a globalist cuck.

 
Comment by octal77
2018-05-24 12:02:30

We are entering a brave new world with respect to ’smart’ devices.

I would be less concerned about government agencies snooping and more about commercial 3rd party marketeers who are most interested in very basic information about household habits, (ie. how often do you cycle on your TV and when does the compressor in your fridge run), let alone more advanced rich data harvested by devices such as Alexa.

Personally, I stay ‘off the grid’ to the extent possible. Own only a simple dial telephone connected to copper land line, no cable, (use an antenna for TV). Thus, no use data is sent back to the Mother Ship.

BTW, save a whole lot of $$ by skipping cable, and not buying all this junk.

Comment by MGSpiffy
2018-05-24 12:44:16

You still have a PC of some sort and internet or you wouldn’t be posting. :)

Some levels of intrusion have worked better than others. The “Smart devices” like Alexia that are currently being pushed don’t really offer that much practical improvement for people’s lives that I can see, despite a big advertising push showing often very contrived situations. I expect them to go the way of 3D TVs.

The most successful inroads have been made with smartphones - they’re just so darn useful in ordinary life, so they make a perfect trojan horse. I’m sure that even you have run into moments where it would have been advantageous to have had one.

Comment by octal77
2018-05-24 12:47:56

“…You still have a PC of some sort and internet or you wouldn’t be posting. :)…”

Nope: Do it all offsite - Aka ‘the office’

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Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-05-24 12:59:25

My father got each of us children an Amazon Echo for Christmas. So far my main use cases for the device include:

1) “Alexa, play Jeopardy!” (Queues a few Jeopardy questions)

2) “Alexa, what’s the weather?” (local weather forecast)

3) “Alexa, what’s my flash briefing? (Plays top NPR and BBC headlines)

4) “Alexa, play the clean up song.” (I use this as a timer for my little one to pick up his toys scattered about).

The creepy thing is when we hear Alexa come on at random times and say nothing.

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Comment by tresho
2018-05-24 14:42:22

The creepy thing is when we hear Alexa come on at random times and say nothing.
have a few light bulbs that work with Alexa around the house, and find it very helpful to just say, “Alexa, turn off the living room” - much better than a push button remote.

 
 
 
Comment by tresho
2018-05-24 12:54:14

Using light waves to monitor conversations inside a house is old hat. Windows vibrate with sound & various light reflections can be demodulated back into sound, from a distance. When you are at home be vewy, vewy quiet, like Elmer Fudd.

 
 
Comment by MGSpiffy
2018-05-24 12:37:21

I actually believe that there is a long term strategy by governments world-wide to get their populaces used to have devices capable of surveillance and monitoring in their homes, with them, and basically everywhere.

And in that planning, it is expected that people will complain and resist to vary degrees at particular things that seem egregious, but they are playing the long game. Eventually, nearly everyone gives in and the holdouts have to acquiesce in order to function. As technologies evolve and mature governments are in a position to demand backdoors and access ports in devices and gag anyone with knowledge of these. Things can be put in at the chip level to where even most manufactures of computers, phones, cars, etc don’t even know what’s there.

Maybe I’m wrong and it’s just a plot device for a dystopian sci-fi show, but if I could see this coming decades ago, surly the govt think tanks could as well.

 
Comment by Sean
2018-05-24 15:50:51

Happens even with smart phones. I was talking to my neighbor yesterday about renting a car for the day out in LA. He said he had a free rental coupon I could have at Hertz. Discussed different rental car places while my phone was in my pocket. And today’s click bait ad? Hertz! I don’t think it was a coincidence.

 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2018-05-24 09:45:50

LJ Hooker New Farm agent Pauline Karatau says she is contacted every week by unit owners desperate for her to sell their property.

Yup, when people get desperate it’s normal for them to reach out to the Hookers.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-05-24 09:55:58

Housing Hookers, UHS, Realturds…. All the same.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2018-05-24 11:09:37

Ooops!

Self-driving Uber SUV saw pedestrian but didn’t brake, feds say

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/05/24/self-driving-uber-safety/

Federal investigators say the autonomous Uber SUV that struck and killed an Arizona pedestrian in March spotted the woman about six seconds before hitting her, but didn’t stop because emergency braking was disabled.

In a preliminary report on the crash, the National Transportation Safety Board said Thursday that emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while Uber’s cars are under computer control, because it reduces the potential for erratic behavior.

Instead, Uber relies on a human backup driver to intervene. The system, however, is not designed to alert the driver.

because it reduces the potential for erratic behavior?

So are they saying that their cars aren’t capable of handling emergency situations, and they need a driver to intervene?

Exception handling is a tricky part of programming, because exceptions are unpredictable and thus anticipating the right way to handle them is extremely difficult. Sure, in a regular IT environment it isn’t catastrophic when that happens. If your debit card transaction fails, you just try again. Real time stuff is a lot hairier.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-05-24 11:38:40

I can see the logic of not doing emergency maneuvers in beta and holding the operator responsible for that. But whoever made the decision to not alert the driver reeks of “for legal reasons we can’t alert the driver because then the driver would depend on us to alert them and then we would be liable”. People who think like that should stick to beancounting and not work on this bleeding edge stuff.

Comment by In Colorado
2018-05-24 12:22:03

I can see the logic of not doing emergency maneuvers in beta and holding the operator responsible for that.

When do you test them then? Maybe in Alpha or Proof of Concept phase you might disable it, but in Beta? Of course, it’s possible this wasn’t a Beta, in which case, the driver should have been more alert.

I wonder how much Uber is going to have to pay to the victim’s survivors?

But whoever made the decision to not alert the driver reeks of “for legal reasons we can’t alert the driver because then the driver would depend on us to alert them and then we would be liable”

Agreed.

Comment by oxide
2018-05-24 13:53:25

So they can’t win. If the car alerts the driver, then the driver depends on the car, which makes Uber liable. But if the car *doesn’t* alert the driver, then screws up on its own(as happened here), then Uber is still liable.

And to think they wanted to test-drive this crap in and around Pittsburgh. Has anyone been to Pittsburgh? It’s a hole. Up and down steep hills. Potholes and bumps and stones in the roads everywhere. And that’s during summer. Winter is even more fun. If these things can’t make it through a car wash, imagine the introduction to the neighbors snowblower.

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Comment by BlueSkye
2018-05-24 18:22:27

I am convinced that Pittsburgh was intentionally designed to prevent logical aliens from access.

 
Comment by oxide
2018-05-25 06:55:19

And you would be… Correct! Pittsburgh was built on the old French Fort Duquesne, right at the confluence. Very easy position to defend. :mrgreen: :razz:

That patch of land in now Point Park. The sites of the original forts are outlined with stone pavers.

———————
*The same set of soldiers who chased after Washington and caught up with him at Fort Necessity in 1954, the event which started the French and Indian War.

 
Comment by tresho
2018-05-25 16:06:48

caught up with him at Fort Necessity in 1954
Dang. I thought those Frenchies could run faster than that.

 
 
 
 
Comment by tresho
2018-05-24 11:44:20

Exception handling is a tricky part of programming
That applies even more to health care delivery and emergency services.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-05-24 13:02:09

At every single huddle we go over our “safety story” where we discuss a miss or near miss during the past shift in our unit or another area of the hospital. There are a lot, and we have a reputation for a well-run hospital.

Comment by tresho
2018-05-24 14:45:43

we have a reputation for a well-run hospital. This may be due to your huddles and “safety” stories. Keeping everyone aware of potential issues goes a very long way.

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Comment by In Colorado
2018-05-24 15:01:33

That applies even more to health care delivery and emergency services.

True, but at least you aren’t dependent on some programmer you’ve never met to have implemented the right logic and not give you the power to override it, which is the ultimate goal for autonomous cars

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-05-24 18:25:23

It’s called technology, but really it’s only an argument.

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Comment by taxpayers
2018-05-24 11:12:29

my county has a 5.6 billion underfunded pension liability
and we are AAA rated
so others are worse-er

they would have to triple re taxes to get even or
10 yrs at x
30 years at x

Comment by 2banana
2018-05-24 11:55:33

This a golden time to get out.

 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2018-05-24 11:21:07

The person was a prominent developer in Tampa, responsible for the Westchase subdivision. His death seems more suspicious than was first reported. And family members are clamming up.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/crime/Son-tells-NC-police-he-found-dog-leash-around-neck-of-strangled-Hillsborough-developer-Bill-Bishop_168502300

Comment by tresho
2018-05-24 11:45:25

Blame the dog, and hang him.

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-05-24 11:21:20

North Palm Beach, FL Housing Prices Plunge 7% YOY As Florida Retirement/Vacation Property Market Craters

https://www.movoto.com/north-palm-beach-fl/market-trends/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-05-24 13:05:02

New York property jitters herald declines elsewhere
Financial Times-5 hours ago
Clouds are hovering over New York’s housing market. … on the negative consequences of Donald Trump’s tax reforms — and a glut of new luxury properties.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-05-24 14:05:16

rump’s tax reforms — and a glut of new luxury properties.

Bloomberg’s has a good article out today showing the decline across the Australian market. So far the high-end is showing the steepest declines.

 
Comment by 2banana
2018-05-24 15:16:11

And rising interest rates

And the grest QE unwind

And insane taxes

And insane unions

And NYS losing population

And tyrannical progressives being in power

And….

(Sorry about double post)

y

 
 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-05-24 14:08:00

What’s Discouraging Millennials From Starting A Family

Bloomberg
Peter Coy
May 24, 2018

“It made perfect sense when American women reacted to the recession of 2007-09 by having fewer babies. But we’re nine years into the second-longest expansion on record, unemployment is well below average, and yet the birthrate hasn’t rebounded. The number of births in the U.S. fell in 2017 to its lowest in 30 years. What’s going on?”

“Student loans, coupled with high housing prices in many markets, have helped push down the rate of homeownership among people under age 35, to 35 percent last year from 42 percent in 2007, says Jessica Lautz, director of demographics and behavioral insights at the National Association of Realtors. For many young couples, no house means no babies.”

“Mathematically, the problem is that the birthrate for women age 20-24 is six times as high as that for women 40-44, so it would take an unrealistically big increase in births among the older cohort to make up for declines in the younger age group. If too few babies are born, there won’t be enough workers in the future to support the growing number of retirees.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-24/what-s-discouraging-millennials-from-starting-a-family

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-05-24 14:33:50

“says Jessica Lautz, director of demographics and behavioral insights at the National Association of Realtors”

They’re too far deep in collusion, data fixing and marrket rigging to take seriously anything they say.

 
Comment by 2banana
2018-05-24 15:05:46

Militant feminism, lack of middle class jobs, insane taxes, insane housing prices, obamacare…

Basically everything that hope and change touched…

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-05-24 17:01:55

While a lot of the demise of Toys R Us was due to leveraged buy-out and private equity, not to mention poor management and the rise of online retailers and the growth of Walmart and Target, we are seeing the rise of the canary in the coal mine when it comes to demographic shifts. This promises to have huge implications on our economy, which is very much geared around a positive population growth. It seems that we are at an inflection point where the price of housing is causing a recalibration of expectations and norms which will ripple out into other areas in ways both anticipated and as-yet hardly foreseen.

 
 
Comment by TIC TOK
2018-05-24 18:12:40

MGTOW is bigger than “experts” realize. Young men want nothing to do with marriage or kids. 50% chance it ends in divorce with the woman getting 75% of your income. Why bother? And with Tinder there’s no shortage of sex available for guys with virtually zero cost or effort.

Comment by rms
2018-05-24 23:45:16

Medical records are private, but agencies like the CDC keep records of STDs, etc., and there is a bifurcation happening in female sexual behavior, e.g., large numbers choosing abstinence vs those using social media who have had hundreds of partners before they’re twenty-five. But today, after a labiaplasty operation, they’ll be ready to “settle down” with their cuck soul-mate. No charge for the HPV.

Comment by tresho
2018-05-25 16:09:28

No charge for the HPV.
Maybe prospective spouses will insist on pre-nup blood testing for any and all possible STDs. Serum blood tests for syphilis were once mandatory before you could get a marriage certificate.

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Comment by tresho
2018-05-25 16:10:44

Medical records are private
You would be surprised at what you can find in archives. I found part of my mother’s medical and dental records at a boarding school in her file, held at the Chicago National Archives. That was over 80 years ago, though.

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Comment by BlueSkye
2018-05-24 18:40:07

no house means no babies…

That’s pretty funny. How ever did the race survive before consumer debt?

I’m beginning to suspect that modern contraceptive meds drastically reduce the future ability of women to go off the drugs and reproduce. Three of the younger generation in my family have had to have an ovary removed after going off contraception. Previously unheard of.

 
Comment by Taxpayers
2018-05-25 05:27:15

Illegals n Gimmigrants are breeding like rabbits
No worries

 
 
Comment by Norma
2018-05-24 15:01:10

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-24/small-time-bankers-make-millions-peddling-mortgages-to-the-poor

“Usually a repo that’s like three years old, we’re not really going to sweat that,” he assures the caller. “We’re pretty lenient here.” He steers his prospect to several $400,000 homes with swimming pools. “Have your wife check that out,” he says, referring to a remodeled kitchen with granite countertops. “She’s going to love it.”

Many of Christian’s customers have no savings, poor credit, or low income—sometimes all three

 
Comment by 2banana
2018-05-24 15:02:51

And rising interest rates

And the grest QE unwind

And insane taxes

And insane unions

And NYS losing population

And tyrannical progressives being in power

And….

 
Comment by jeff
2018-05-24 15:10:10

Judge orders 30-year-old son to leave parents’ home after they sued him

May 22, 2018 12:34PM

SYRACUSE, N.Y. — A 30-year-old man was ordered to vacate his parents’ Syracuse area home Tuesday after they sued him because he refused to leave.

After the judge’s ruling, son Michael Rotondo said, “This is outrageous” and said he would appeal the decision.

http://abc7.com/family/judge-orders-son-30-to-move-out-after-parents-file-lawsuit/3506932/

Comment by 2banana
2018-05-24 15:17:54

Throw his crap on the sidewalk and change the locks.

Call the police if he trespasses

Comment by serling
2018-05-24 16:00:39

2banana,

Agree. Do not see how under any stretch of imagination the son is a tenant.

At most he is a guest and the guest was told to leave. I don’t understand why the police just couldn’t escort him from the premises.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-05-24 16:12:13

Don’t the people with landlord experience here talk about how complicated it is to evict someone that was a welcome guest at any point? Apparently you can’t just decide they’re not welcome any more and call the cops.

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Comment by BlueSkye
2018-05-24 18:47:47

My dad gave me a good luck handshake when I was 17. He thought it was time for character building. Trying to lodge in his house against his wishes was unimaginable. I made my own way sort of, faltering, with some help. Before, then and after he was the best friend I ever had.

At 17 he was on Iwo Jima.

 
Comment by oxide
2018-05-25 07:20:36

And by the time my generation came along, things were loosened somewhat. The good-luck age was 22. Kids still lived at home for college breaks, but after that it was “Well, we’ll take you if we absolutely have to, but not until you make every effort.”

Now it’s sort of expected.

 
Comment by rms
2018-05-25 08:42:01

“At 17 he was on Iwo Jima.”

Copy that… not a snowflake.

Dad was a 19-yr/old lieutenant B17 bombardier shot down over Leipzig during his first year, and spent the next two in a prison camp up near the North Sea. If you asked him about it he’d tell that he was glad that he wasn’t a guest of the Japanese. He was there when the Russians liberated his camp and raped, looted and burned the town nearby.

 
Comment by tresho
2018-05-25 16:14:06

If you asked him about it he’d tell that he was glad that he wasn’t a guest of the Japanese.
The first Pres. Bush in a TV interview joked about the time he was shot down & later rescued from the sea to return to duty. There was a Japanese commander nearby who had the reputation of eating the livers of his US prisoners.

 
Comment by rms
2018-05-26 01:43:16

Yankee foie gras?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-05-24 15:38:46

Ashland, OR Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Unemployment Ravages West Coast

https://www.movoto.com/ashland-or/market-trends/

 
Comment by serling
2018-05-24 16:19:59

I generally just lurk but…thanks for all the helpful comments on the post I made 2 days ago about - insanely - thinking of purchasing the house I rent (2 units) that is 100+ (actually about 120) years old. So belated appreciation to –

Mafia Blocks,
You right with the statement, “Why buy when you can rent it for half the cost?” I sometimes still get impatient about waiting for the prices to crater. I cannot believe they have been held so high for so long. Used to be an average house was 2-3 times a persons annual income. Remember my parents wondering how they were going to make the $98/month mortgage in the 1960s when the one working spouse was ‘cut back’ to $66/week.

I used the Zillow calculator and putting in some rough numbers estimated the new buyer will probably be about $500/month negative on PITI keeping with the ‘rent under market’ - and no don’t think the rent can be raised to cover it and actually keep quality tenants.

Researched and the place was bought approximately 30 years ago, just after the last real real estate crash (where here houses lost 30% of their value)

Tarara Boomdea and 2 banana,
I never thought about asking for a rent reduction - this is actually cutting into my ‘quiet right to enjoyment’ time. I had to find something to do for those several hours when the place was being shown rather than be there at that time like I usually am. I am not here to ’stage’ the place -watched alot of HGTV with my mother as she liked the channel.

Don’t like hiding my laptop and other items of value and I don’t want to make my bed. I think hanging out and eating smelly cheese while cooking brussel sprouts sounds like a good idea. True story: I had a friend who was “staging” a house for her aunt. She says it was exhausting keeping everything ’show ready.’ Then a rat died…in a wall. Every time the place was viewed she was baking a spice cake to cover the smell.

2banana,
Yes I actually did entertain -for about 10 seconds - the idea of buying the place. Sometimes I do need someone to tell me I am ‘on the ledge.’ I can still get myself down. In New England there are OLD properties. I’ve lived in everything from 18th century to just built with the size being from a studio to 4,000 sq foot house. (Smaller is better.) I eventually plan to relocate to the south, maybe in one location where 80%+ was built no later than the 1970s. My ‘dream’ is to find a 3/2 ranch that is about 1400 sq. ft.

Interested Observer,
Thank you for confirming what another friend told me. If someone is looking for a mortgage on this place, the bank is going have the place inspected and one of the things will be the wiring. Again, I know NOTHING about wiring except the many of the outlets are NOT grounded like they have to be in new construction. I’ve been in the basement ONE time and that was enough for me. You have to get on a ladder to reach the ‘circuit breakers’ or whatever you call them. It looks like a 100+ year old basement - stacked stone - and smells like one too. This is another reminder, after dealing with water issues in basements in other rentals, I do NOT want a basement in a house.

I don’t know what the sewer pipes are like. Never thought about them before now.

Yes, the floors are slanting. If you tossed a handful of marbles on a floor, they would all roll to one side of the room. The front porch has a terrible slant. It’s noticeable and when the door doesn’t really want to stay closed.

Maybe you are right about thinking about getting serious about a new place to live. Unfortunately around here the only thing that seems to be being built are ‘luxury’ apartments with graniteel, pool, clubhouse, etc. One new luxury place around her thinks it a plus to be able to walk to WalMart (and KFC and Taco Bell) and see WalMart from the window. Uh no…I’ll keep with the bar down the street being more useful.

I don’t mean to down the place where I am. I do like the solid wood doors rather than the hollow ones, the wide pine floors (which should be refinished) where every once in a while you have to pound down a nail in them), the horsehair plaster walls rather than sheet rock. The windows are vinyl, etc. It’s just, hey a house this age is GOING to have extremely small closets, a ‘postage stamp’ bathroom, and no central air, and the washer in one area and the dryer in another one. Of course I did just open a kitchen drawer and found evidence of a mouse being there sometime in the past.

BlueSkye,
Thank you someone else seems to think of the ‘pickpockets’ and ‘grifters.’ I have rental insurance but that is mostly to cover if the dryer starts a fire or if the washer over fills. My furniture is, well, I am not going to pay to store it ever again. It’s the small things about which i worry. I LIVE here and cannot follow the ’staging rules’ of packing away personal photos and valuables. I don’t feel I should have to hide the laptop, kindle, medications, and whatever jewelry is here. It’s going to get old hiding the valuables in the car trunk. Plus I need the laptop for work.

I got 2 texts giving me less than 24 hours notice that there were 2 viewings yesterday Today got another text there will be a viewing Saturday afternoon.

The lease is month-to-month. This state’s rental laws are actually very pro-tenant. The landlord is allowed to enter the premises but needs to give SUFFICIENT notice. Of course, define sufficient.

As mentioned, I was looking to buy when I read about the blog on another website. I’ve learned a lot here. It’s just sometimes I think before this bubble bursts I will be booking a room in a retirement community. Oh well, hopefully will have the funds from maxing out 401K

***
Additional story. With an acquaintance got on the subject of mortgages because I knew someone who was “bemoaning” the “almost” $900 mortgage payment/month being made. (Spouse is thrifty and previously sold another house for a good profit). Acquaintance told me monthly mortgage payment is $5K/month! My jaw dropped. The couple was refinancing for their kids getting through college. I looked up the records and the house was purchased for $240K almost 30 years ago.

Anyway, back to lurking…

 
Comment by cassiopeia
2018-05-24 16:25:20

Wake me up when all this reckoning reaches my little corner of the housing bubble in West LA. Been renting for EVER thanks to the teachings of this blog since I started visiting waaay back when in about 2006. In my experience it is possible to rent from a good, experienced landlord who wants a stable tenant at a reasonable price. I have no complaints, but we have been saving and am beginning to feel that our time to buy a house might be coming.
In the big collapse of the last bubble, prices went down (somewhat, not as much as in other areas) but we did not have enough savings for a big downpayment and our income was not on such a sure footing as it is now. I thought they were still expensive, but the bailouts “solved” the problem and by 2012 prices began to inch upwards again. Now we are in a situation where the median price is the highest it’s ever been. My hood has sprouted plenty of McMansions double the size of their neighbors and at least four condo complexes in less than four square blocks, I kid you not. Interestingly, last time I checked the asking rent for a 3 bedroom in one of those condos was…wait for it…. $5,600!!!!
For now, around here you would think all is well. You hear talk about “housing shortage” and “no inventory” on the radio, and there are truly very few houses for sale in my zip code. Those that do sell still command bubble prices.
However, my totally unscientific and anecdotal searches on zillow and redfin are bringing up more choices than only one month ago. For the first time in years, I am seeing open house signs during weekends and I am not getting realtors at my door asking if my landlord wants to sell. It is not much, but it is something when you have been waiting so long. Thanks to Ben and his faithful followers, I did not go crazy.
Frequent reader, almost never commenter, but today I though I’d jump in….

Comment by serling
2018-05-24 17:03:26

Asking rent was $5,600 for a 3 bedroom condo? What! That would mean in order to pay, person(s) would have to be making a total of $280K/year - if 3 people than about $93K/year each.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-05-24 18:54:51

Making $28K/yr? Don’t save and retire early, rent a $5K/mo apartment and live like a king!

 
Comment by cassiopeia
2018-05-25 18:06:05

Serling, believe it or not these are not “room-mate” condos. They have a small living-dining up front with an open kitchen, and then a long corridor with 3 bedrooms, 1 normal-sized, one small and one tiny. They look to me more like a place for a young family with two kids, three at most (the lack of space can be compensated by proximity to nice public park). So you are looking at a couple that has to make enough to pay that kind of RENT, let alone the expense of raising a family. What gives? I don’t know, you tell me. Median income in my zip code is 92K, quite high, but still not enough to pay that kind of rent.

 
 
 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-05-24 16:53:32

Why Do Americans Stay When Their Town Has No Future?

May 23, 2018
Alec MacGillis

Bloomberg

“Family and community are the only things left in Adams County, Ohio, as the coal-fired power plants abandon ship and the government shrugs.”

“America was built on the idea of picking yourself up and striking out for more promising territory. Ohio itself was settled partly by early New Englanders who quit their rocky farms for more tillable land to the west. Some of these population shifts helped reshape the country: the 1930s migration from the Dust Bowl to California; the Great Migration of blacks to the North and West, which occurred in phases between 1910 and 1960; the Hillbilly Highway migration of Appalachian whites to the industrial Midwest in the 1940s and ’50s.”

“In recent years, though, Americans have grown less likely to migrate for opportunity. As recently as the early 1990s, 3 percent of Americans moved across state lines each year, but today the rate is half that. Fewer Americans moved in 2017 than in any year in at least a half-century. This change has caused consternation among economists and pundits, who wonder why Americans, especially those lower on the income scale, lack their ancestors’ get-up-and-go. “Why is this happening?” New York Times columnist David Brooks asked in 2014. His answer: “A big factor here is a loss in self-confidence. It takes faith to move.” Economist Tyler Cowen wrote last year that “poverty and low incomes have flipped from being reasons to move to reasons not to move, a fundamental change from earlier American attitudes.””

““The problem here is trying to treat people like interchangeable widgets,” he says. “They’re not. They’re human beings embedded in communities. We’re forcing cultural and social change on people, and people don’t like that. They don’t move three states away for a hypothetical job. They want to live where they are because their parents are in the same town, and their grandmother is in the next town, and they go to church there. Just picking people up and relocating them, it doesn’t work like that. And on the flip side, even if it did work out for an individual, consider what you left behind: What is the ramification for your family and community, now that you’re gone for good?””

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-23/why-do-americans-stay-when-their-town-has-no-future

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-05-24 17:11:42

I wanted to post this article because it is a very conservative, red area of a state that is being hit hard by the closure of a coal plant. Both democratic and republican senators have effectively said, “You need to move.” They are arguably right. But these are essentially the “forgotten men (and women)” who ushered in DJT.

Somewhere in the recent US history the phrase the “American dream” was co-opt by the real estate industry to mean “home ownership”. The reality was that the American dream was more about being able to chart your own course, kind of like the pioneering spirit or intrepid spirit of the wild west. I find it interesting that the wife of the man highlighted in this article defines the American dream as “not moving”:

“The American dream is kind of to stay close to your family, do well, and let your kids grow up around your parents,” he says. It was a striking comment: Not that long ago, the American dream more often meant something quite different, about achieving mobility—about moving up, even if that meant moving out.”

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-05-24 17:56:02

I think if simply by moving the average working class American could get a 6 figure job with full benefits you’d see a major migration with extended family close behind and the national economy would reorganize fairly quickly.

But nobody wants to uproot to be no better off than they are now plus separated from everything they’ve ever known.

 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-05-24 17:40:53

100 million unemployed people all seeking the same small pool of jobs creates dislocations. No mystery there at all.

 
Comment by tresho
2018-05-25 16:20:42

consider what you left behind: What is the ramification for your family and community, now that you’re gone for good?
That is precisely why many native Americans stay close to their reservations. Family & community are their highest values. Getting rich would be nice, but a very very very low priority. After they get through sharing everything they have, even the rich aren’t anymore. Sitting Bull once toured the UK with Buffalo Bill way back when. He gave much of his earnings away to British street beggars.

 
 
Comment by Norma
Comment by DirtyLawyer
2018-05-24 21:04:08

I live on the opposite end of O’Farrell St, drive by the second house a few times a week. Very desirable neighborhood, but not worth that money. It still has their signature/obnoxious “Timber + Love” for sale sign planted in the yard. While scouting neighborhoods for ourselves, we stumbled upon their first flip/listing. It is a nice house in a nice area, but not $900k nice.

 
 
Comment by TIC TOK
2018-05-24 18:14:38

Overheard 2 women at the gym today talking housing. One thought the crash was coming in 2020, the other thought crash? Crazy talk.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-05-24 22:04:05

My brother texted me. His buddy works at the largest car dealership in the state and told me that this month has been the slowest in 6 years for vehicles sales. It’s just one data point, but makes me wonder if the tide is turning.

Comment by rms
2018-05-25 00:17:34

There are so many used pickup trucks right now, 7-yrs/old, 120k+ miles and outstanding balances around $24k. And fuel prices are back up too, so those 3.73 and 4.10 axle ratios don’t look so hot. You can bet this discussion is already being held behind closed doors.

Comment by Taxpayers
2018-05-25 05:34:09

A 4.10 rear,wow sounds like the 1960s

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by rms
2018-05-25 06:06:12

Anytime you see “towing package” think 3.73 and 4.10 axle ratios. Hence, poor mileage. On the positive side overdrive is now a standard feature with some even having two overdrive gears.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-05-24 18:23:49

Austin, TX 78759 Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Housing Correction Expands

https://www.zillow.com/austin-tx-78759/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-05-24 20:55:04

“Mortgage rates so far in 2018 have had the most sustained increase to start the year in over 40 years,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement. “Through May, rates have risen in 15 out of the first 21 weeks (71 percent), which is the highest share since Freddie Mac began tracking this data for a full year in 1972.”

https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Mortgage-rates-have-been-rising-at-a-pace-not-12940865.php

Comment by Get Stucco
2018-05-25 02:41:11

The rate rise so far this year seems very gradual, until cast in that light.

Try not to get stucco.

 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-05-25 02:47:39

Activism
Affordable housing
Feature
June 18-25, 2018, Issue
Meet the Rising New Housing Movement That Wants to Create Homes for All
From rent regulation to social housing, activists are pushing for serious solutions to the affordable-housing crisis.
By Jimmy Tobias
Yesterday 6:00 am
Illustration by Curt Merlo.

Crossing the Frederick Douglass–Susan B. Anthony Memorial Bridge on a brisk spring morning in Rochester, New York, the first thing one sees is a small tent city scattered about the banks of the Genesee River. It’s a sprawl of black tarps, folding chairs, and a charcoal grill, all set up on private land. The property’s owner, a cable company called Spectrum, has attempted for some time to tear it down, urging local officials to clear the encampment. In an effort to forestall the destruction of their fragile shelters, the homeless people who live there have hung a banner at the edge of a nearby highway that reads, simply, “Forgive us our trespasses.”

 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-05-25 04:14:53

Seattle, WA 98121 Rental Rates Crater 9% YOY As Market Floods With Spec Housing

https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa-98121/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on rental chart

 
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