It’s Going To Be A Renter’s Market For A Long Time
A report from the News Gazette in Illinois. “A Rhode Island developer is building a seven-story, 538-bed luxury apartment building near Campustown that it hopes to open in the summer of 2019. Meanwhile, local developers with student housing projects nearby are worried the market is oversaturated, with Gilbane Development Co.’s project just the latest in a long line of others like it. ‘The market’s overbuilt. Anybody with half a brain can see that, so you got to pick and choose your spaces really carefully,’ said Dan Hamelberg, developer of the Midtown Plaza, which has 104 units.”
“Several apartment buildings have been built in Campustown and Midtown over the last few years, with more on the way. ‘Local developers and local banks know what’s going on,’ he said. ‘The time has come for people who are outside of our market to realize that we have a vacancy rate, and it will go higher if you come in with a couple hundred more units.’”
From KGUN 9 in Arizona. “TUCSON. - Tall towers have taken root all around the University, and still more are sprouting. It’s enrollment growth and the appeal of living close. Besides 23 on-campus dorms, UA refers students to about 30 off-campus complexes with about eleven thousand beds. By Fall 2019, the housing office expects new construction to add close to 13 hundred beds, in complexes connected to the U of A program. Construction in unaffiliated complexes is expected to add even more.”
“The simple explanation for the building boom is the boom in UA student enrollment but landlords and business analysts tell us there’s more to it than that. Because costs are generally lower in Tucson a company that builds here might manage a six percent profit margin. Somewhere else it might be just two percent. We’ve heard disagreement over how long the boom will keep booming. Some landlords think by Fall 2019 supply and demand will fall into balance or there could be a surplus of space.”
From the Denver Post in Colorado. “When Denver Mayor Michael Hancock underlined the urgency of the city’s housing affordability crisis in a speech last summer, he declared: ‘Many residents need an affordable option today, not a year from now.’ But that’s how long it will end up taking to launch the potentially innovative initiative Hancock announced with those words in July 2017. The plan then was to use taxpayer money to ‘buy down’ the rents of vacant market-rate apartments for 400 low- and middle-income households at risk of being priced out of Denver, with some employers kicking in money to help house their employees.”
“For employers and Hancock, the idea is to put empty apartments within financial reach for workers at risk of being priced out of Denver, including teachers, police officers, health care workers and others who can’t afford the city’s glut of gleaming new apartments. The city already has collected interest in participating from the owners and managers of hundreds of vacant apartments (as well as some single-family homes) in about 40 locations across the city. Not all were built recently.”
From the Mercury News in California. “For Bay Area renters struggling to afford apartments that keep getting more expensive, the latest numbers could seem too good to be true — the region’s runaway rent prices finally may be starting to level off. San Jose is looking at the slowest start to the summer rental season in years. Rents in San Francisco are flat-lining. And Oakland saw a minuscule increase in rent prices last month, according to a new study by RentCafe, which found the Bay Area is part of a nation-wide trend.”
“John Protopappas, CEO of Madison Park Financial Corporation, predicts this is the start of a major slowdown in the Bay Area’s rental market. It’s all about supply and demand, he said. In Oakland alone 7,000 housing units are under construction, and as those finished units flood the market, Protopappas expects the city’s rents to drop 20 or 30 percent in the next two or three years. ‘It’s going to become a renter’s market instead of a landlord’s market,’ he said. ‘It’s going to be a renter’s market for a long time.’”
From the New Orleans Advocate in Louisiana. “Retail growth in Mid-City and the rising popularity of the linear park that runs through it have prompted a surge in residential development beyond anything the neighborhood has seen in decades, according to local real estate analysts. Owners of a $65 million apartment complex that is under construction and an upscale townhouse project that’s going up a block away say they are tapping into rising demand for new types of housing.”
“Around the corner, 37 HUNDRED, a $8 million townhouse project will start around $500,000, according to VPG owner Michael Merideth, who said he has pre-sold six of the units. Though rapid construction of new apartments and condominiums may have some worried about the city becoming ‘over built’ with residential units, Kevin Hilbert, a local real estate appraiser and consultant said he has no such concerns. His analysis shows that New Orleans currently is absorbing, or filling, about 30 units a month, a rate he says can easily consume the inventory that’s now under construction or due to begin soon.”
The Pacific Business News in Hawaii. “Rents for two-bedroom apartments in Honolulu have significantly declined over the past year, but still rank among the highest in the nation, according to Apartment List and Zumper. Honolulu is ranked 11th for the highest rents among the 100 cities surveyed by Zumper, which found the median rent for a two-bedroom apartment dropped 8.3 percent from a year ago to $2,200 per month.”
From All Over Albany in New York. “Sometimes during episodes of Exciting Tales of the Albany Planning Board and related whatnot, we refer to the apartment building boomlet that’s been going in Albany and around the Capital Region. There were more multi-family units permitted in 2015 and 2016 than single-family units, which hadn’t happened going back as far as 1980. In 2017 single-family edged ahead again, but only with 51 percent of the overall units.”
“Municipalities in Saratoga and Albany counties have both issued the most number of building permits for housing units — by far — going back to 1980. That’s been especially true in the 2010s — thanks mostly to Saratoga County. But Schenectady County has been picking things up a bit the last three years, adding a bunch of multi-family units in Schenectady (395), Rotterdam (269), Niskayuna (187). Of course, Halfmoon has been the fastest growing municipality by percentage locally the last few years, and was tops in the state last year.”
“It’s also notable that even though the top 5 include lots of suburban areas, the municipalities have been adding significant amounts of multi-family units, which is maybe a little surprising (except in the case of Saratoga Springs). It’s interesting that Albany has added more than 1,000 new residential units over the last decade, yet the Census Bureau estimates that the city’s population is relatively flat since 2010 and has even been declining since 2013.”
From the Kitsap Sun in Washington. “A long-planned apartment development near Evergreen-Rotary Park is back on the market after its owner defaulted on the property’s loan. Evergreen Pointe, a two-building complex with more than 100 residential units and a ground floor of commercial spaces, was conceived a decade ago. The project had cleared nearly all regulatory requirements, but building has yet to occur. Clearview Sheldon, LLC, its owner since 2014, owed $2.16 million on the loan, according to records from the Kitsap County Assessor’s Office.”
“It was recently auctioned off for $2.3 million. Trish Williams, a managing partner for Clearview Sheldon, did not return a request for comment. The project’s new owner is familiar: Pyatt Broadmark of Seattle, Clearview Sheldon’s money lender on the property itself. ‘It’s unfortunate. We still think it’s a wonderful project,” Jeff Pyatt, its president, said of the foreclosure. ‘It’s a beautiful site.’”
“Clearview Sheldon purchased the land from Park Place Development of Bellevue, in 2014. The LLC demolished some aging homes to clear the way for what was then a $12.8 million upscale apartment project. Its new property listing advertises ‘great value at $30k a door for a ‘fully permitted site!!’ ‘With the passing of the Foot Ferry which makes an easy commute from Bremerton to Seattle,’ the listing reads. ‘Amazing Mountain and water view, tremendous demand for new apartments in the area.’”
‘For Bay Area renters struggling to afford apartments that keep getting more expensive, the latest numbers could seem too good to be true — the region’s runaway rent prices finally may be starting to level off.’
This is probably the Mercury News’ 15th gasping announcement that rents are falling. Oakland alone is off double digits and we’ve known that for over a year.
April 11, 2018
A report from the Seattle Times in Washington. “The slowdown in Seattle-area rent increases that began late last year has continued into the first part of 2018, as the crush of new apartments opening across the region catches up with demand in the fast-growing region. The recent cooldown has now extended long enough to be indicative of a longer-term trend. Analysts have pointed to a wave of new apartments opening since 2014; a record number of new units opened last year in Seattle, and even more are expected this year. The changes are most recognizable in the pricey neighborhoods of downtown Seattle and South Lake Union — home to one-third of the new apartments that have opened across the region since last year.”
“Compared to the high-points reached last fall, rents have dropped 6 percent in both downtown Seattle and South Lake Union. And the rate of vacant apartments has grown from 3.8 percent to 6.2 percent in the last year in downtown, and from 5.3 percent to 6.7 in South Lake Union, giving renters more options and negotiating power.”
“John Mullally, whose family has been in the apartment business since the 1940s, said he started noticing a slowdown around September at the 1,450 older units he owns in North Seattle and Queen Anne. Fewer people were applying to his apartments, and the people who were applying didn’t meet the background and income check standards as often. Since then Mullally has reduced the security deposit and offered a half-month of free rent for new leases, but he still has more apartments sitting empty than he used to.”
“‘The market has definitely changed,’ he said. ‘It was in an upward trend for quite some time, and I think it’s peaked and its going the other way now.’”
“Looking just at large projects of at least 50 units, the region has added 40,000 new apartments since 2014. That far outpaces the rate of population and job growth, but follows about 20 years of slow apartment construction. There are about 35,000 units across the region still in the pipeline that haven’t been built yet, roughly the same as a quarter ago.”
From the San Francisco Chronicle in California. “For prospective renters on the hunt in San Francisco, there’s even more good news: Certain pockets of the city were seeing rents drop by double digit percentage points in March. The asking price for one-bedrooms in Cole Valley was down 14 percent in March and Inner Richmond prices fell 11 percent compared to a year earlier, according to apartment listing site Zumper.”
“‘Last year, in the Inner Richmond and Cole Valley, rents were spiking due to a lot of demand present, since these areas are safe/low on crime and tend to be less expensive than living in the surrounding neighborhoods like Hayes Valley or NOPA,’ Zumper’s Crystal Chen told SFGATE. ‘While the demand will always be there for these neighborhoods, the price has come down from last year since less people are looking to move right now and it seems a ceiling has been hit.’”
outside the Seattle cores like Belltown, SLU, Capital Hill, and the major line streets and bus lines —- there are a ton of older building with 10-24 units. For the most part these are family owned and the mortgage paid off - they are NOT modern or luxury.
It would be super interesting to see what happens with the rent on these units. They will be in demand for the lower rent, but will the rent still fall from competition.
Small family operators have an innate sense that the lost revenue from a vacant unit is lost forever.
If they own the property free and clear of debt, these small operators will find the sweet spot and keep their units rented.
I imagine that part of their calculus will be the stability of the prospective (or current) tenant.
Not everyone needs or wants sparkling new granite countertops and stainless steel appliances.
“If they own the property free and clear of debt, these small operators will find the sweet spot and keep their units rented.”
This is my mother’s strategy, and she has always had high occupancy. The big leveraged syndicates can’t lower their prices without defaulting on their loans.
They will get hammered even worse than the new buildings, because face it - people like new and clean more than old and dingy. Good luck clinging to those fantasy prices on the old rotboxes.
All of this makes house prices in the area appear even more outrageously stupid, because falling rents make feeding that alligator an absolutely crushing monthly obligation when you’re subsidizing your renter.
“Inner Richmond prices fell 11 percent compared to a year earlier,…”
Am I correct in assuming that Inner Richmond refers to a San Francisco neighborhood, not the East Bay city of Richmond?
That’s a pretty hefty decline for an economy nearing the peak of a boom. Can’t help but wonder how far prices will drop in the next bust.
“Am I correct in assuming that Inner Richmond refers to a San Francisco neighborhood, not the East Bay city of Richmond?”
You are indeed correct! Like Cole Valley, it’s popular with the millennial /hipster crowd and young families.
BOOM.
If memory serves me correct, the last bust started this way as well….rents moving lower.
I seem to remember the last bust beginning with buyers being tapped out (that is everyone who could buy did), then loans beginning to reset followed by a storm of foreclosures. TBF, I wasn’t paying close attention to rents last time as any sort of indicator.
The difference this time is mortgage pimps are scraping the very bottom of the barrel unlike last time.
‘Though rapid construction of new apartments and condominiums may have some worried about the city becoming ‘over built’ with residential units, Kevin Hilbert, a local real estate appraiser and consultant said he has no such concerns’
Landlords in New Orleans have been getting their a$$es kicked for two years or more.
March 15, 2018
The Times-Picayune in Louisiana. “There’s the two-bedroom condo with ‘beautiful floors’ renting for $2,000 a month. Next door, there’s the ‘perfect in-town home or gated getaway’ selling for $400,000. And just a few doors down, there’s a ‘one of a kind French Quarter apartment’ renting for $1,950 a month. And that’s just on one side of the 1000 block of St. Peter Street in the French Quarter. Across the street, a ‘luxury two-bedroom’ apartment is renting for $1,950, and there’s a ‘fantastic rehab opportunity’ for sale for $649,000.”
“It seems nearly every block in the French Quarter has a ‘for sale’ or a ‘for rent’ sign hanging out front, and some of them, like the 1000 block of St. Peter St., have multiple listings. Nearly one year after New Orleans city officials began enforcing a ban on short-term rentals in the French Quarter, the inventory of available real estate is at the highest levels that real estate agent Robert Ripley has seen since the months after Hurricane Katrina.”
“John Ferrara, a longtime French Quarter landlord and a former resident, said it’s as challenging to find long-term renters as ever. ‘People who had condos and second homes in the Quarter, they used them periodically and then they rented them out the rest of the time. Now they can’t do that,’ Ferrara said. ‘You can’t rent — I have vacancies for over a year now. What were assets are turning into liabilities now,’ Ferrara said. ‘My present rentals, it takes four months to pay just the property taxes. I’m blessed — I don’t owe any money on them. But these poor people paying notes on these properties that depended on the money from short-term rentals can’t depend on them anymore. It’s horrible.’”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10373
How fast is New Orleans sinking? Faster and faster, says new study
By Madison Margolin, Correspondent MAY 18, 2016
Up to two inches a year were the highest subsidence rates found, observed mostly near the Mississippi River by industrial areas such as Norco and Michoud. Other high subsidence rates were found in the city’s Upper and Lower Ninth Ward, Metairie, and Bonnet Carré Spillway, where the water levels hiked up another 1.6 inches a year.
The subsidence is primarily caused by groundwater pumping and surface water pumping (known as dewatering). Other factors include faulting; deposited sediments weighing down the Earth’s crust; human withdrawal of water, oil, and gas; shallow sediments compacting; and perpetual land movement from glaciers during the last glacial period.
Overall, global sea levels have risen about three inches since 1992 because of global warming.
———————-
1-2 inches per year is enormous. A kid in NO today will watch his elementary school sink by a couple feet by the time he goes to college, and disappear entirely by the time he dies.
The buried infrastructure, pipes, wires, and other utilities can’t withstand much sinking movement before it needs to be dug-up and re-bedded, which is incredibly expensive.
global sea levels have risen about three inches since 1992 because of global warming…
Sea levels have risen since the end of the last glacial period about 30 feet they say. Maybe another 25 feet to go to match the last interglacial high water mark. You probably have 100,000 years to watch this Northern Hemisphere glacial cycle play out.
The Southern Hemisphere doesn’t have glacial cycles.
My house in coastal Louisanna had 200 feet of clay beneath the slab. It rose and fell a couple of inches seasonally due to moisture level in the soil. Be careful extrapolating this to infinity.
‘You can’t rent — I have vacancies for over a year now. What were assets are turning into liabilities now,’ Ferrara said. ‘My present rentals, it takes four months to pay just the property taxes. I’m blessed — I don’t owe any money on them. But these poor people paying notes on these properties that depended on the money from short-term rentals can’t depend on them anymore. It’s horrible.’”
Hahahaha!!! Music, sweet music. I LOVE IT.
So you’re saying building a city in a swamp below sea level isn’t a good idea? Huh.
It would be underwater right now were it not for all of those massive electric pumps they put in over a century ago.
“Rents for two-bedroom apartments in Honolulu have significantly declined over the past year, but still rank among the highest in the nation, according to Apartment List and Zumper.”
They’ll be going higher, though, once the folks from the Big Island relocate. I don’t even know what they’re waiting for. From all reports, a part of the Big Island is going to be uninhabitable for a quite some time. And yet, people just stare at the walls of lava as if they’re going to magically stop and disappear. Talk about denial.
Those lava flows look disgusting in the photos and videos. Like huge steaming charcoal turds blocking the roadways and filling the fields and forests. Ugh.
Honolulu has the largest effective rent decreases in the US. Something like 19%. So if an island that’s pretty popular can be overbuilt, what area can’t be?
I visited Honolulu back in 2006, shortly before the first tsunami wave of Housing Bubble collapse. I remember wondering if the state bird was the “crane”, as the evidence of condo construction projects underway was visible along the skyline in every direction from my downtown vantage point.
They say that they aren’t making any more land, but obviously they are in the case of Hawaii.
We went in 2007 and Hono was dead I’m the water. But I had no idea yet what had happened. Lots o’ condos for sale.
Those people displaced are unlikely to be able to afford even a short term stay in Honolulu. A long weekend can easily run you a grand for flight+hotel+car/transportation. Even though we talk of prices coming down in parts of the big cities, its still an arm and a leg. I dont see hotel or airbnb prices coming down at all yet - still lots of wishing prices.
And those that do have the scratch would probably rather live in tents on the other side of the island than deal with the urban hell of honolulu and its out of control crime - no aloha there
http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/06/02/hawaii-news/japanese-tourists-assaulted-in-kakaako/
Hawaii should cover their medical costs and send them a necklace of the perps ears after they’re caught and dealt with.
“Zumper”
Zillow, Zumper…who comes up with these stupid names?
It’s like domain names with trademarks and company names, nearly all the good ones have been scooped up. (many just owned and parked by other companies ‘in case” they need them in the future)
Used home salespeople?
“The average rent in San Jose last month was $2,692, or 2.1 percent more than at the same time last year, according to the report. That’s the slowest annual growth rate the city has seen since 2011 — a major milestone for a region where prices seemed to be climbing ceaselessly. The average rent in Oakland was $2,617, a 2.5 percent increase from the year before, which marks the second slowest growth rate the city has seen since 2012. The average rent in San Francisco was $3,453, a 0.6 percent increase, and the second-slowest growth rate the city has seen since 2011. San Francisco saw a cooling off last year, when rents actually dropped 3.3 percent from May 2016.”
God, that is most of the average take home pay in the area. You are working to pay taxes and rents. I make significantly more than the average wage in the bay area and live in flyover with housing costs (mortgage payment) about a quarter of those numbers quoted and I cannot say that I have money coming out my ears. I am funding my 401K, (also have a pension coming, and social security) thus will have a comfortable retirement. But I cannot just pi*s money away. I can be and am generous to charities and people close to me but I cannot figure out how people can even live in the Bay area. Particularly, if they are coming into the area with large student loans. Such living on the edge is bad for your health, your mental sanity and may encourage you to cross the ethics line to obtain money.
The same thing can be said of the metro New York area.
Rental rates are plunging in SF and NYC.
This is a good thing. A very good thing.
and may encourage you to cross the ethics line to obtain money.
——————
Its a given when you are on a commission only pay scale.
I still get 8-10 or more of these be your own boss, the sky is the limit , no ceiling here, free training, make $100K a year with a fortune 500 company, we are listed on the NYSE, network marketer wanted no experience necessary. each week
‘ By Fall 2019, the housing office expects new construction to add close to 13 hundred beds, in complexes connected to the U of A program. Construction in unaffiliated complexes is expected to add even more.’
‘The simple explanation for the building boom is the boom in UA student enrollment but landlords and business analysts tell us there’s more to it than that. Because costs are generally lower in Tucson a company that builds here might manage a six percent profit margin. Somewhere else it might be just two percent.’
You can get two percent on a treasury. This says a lot. They aren’t building for demand. It’s just money chasing yield, looking for greater fools. Tucson’s student market has been overbuilt for years with the older SF landlords getting clobbered.
“Protopappas expects the city’s rents to drop 20 or 30 percent in the next two or three years. ‘It’s going to become a renter’s market instead of a landlord’s market,’ he said. ‘It’s going to be a renter’s market for a long time.’”
This is awesome! The economy is booming, unemployment is at a record low, and rents are already flattening. The next recession should kick rent declines into overdrive. And it’s already cheaper to rent than to own.
There really has never been a better time to rent!
Super strong jobs report means June rate hike coming and Fed could get more aggressive
- Hiring in May was strong and the monthly employment report showed solid jobs gains of 223,000, a lower unemployment rate of 3.8 percent and a better-than-expected boost in wages.
- The strong jobs report keeps the Fed on track to raise interest rates by a quarter point later this month and possibly even increase its forecast for rate hikes for this year.
- Stock futures moved higher and bond yields jumped as the market again is moving to price in a fourth Fed rate hike for this year.
- Economists had only expected 188,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unemployment rate of 3.9 percent, according to Thomson Reuters.
Patti Domm | @pattidomm
Published 10:06 AM ET Fri, 1 June 2018 Updated 11:26 AM ET Fri, 1 June 2018
…
YAWN. This Fed JAWBONING is getting old. They are so far behind the curve it’s laughable. Just like last time, they’ll be raising rates in the face of an economic collapse instead of having been proactive years prior in order to protect against an overheated credit bubble.
If they wanted to be taken seriously with this rate hike stuff, they’d raise it by a half point and announce that they’d be doing that 3 more times this year. Yeah, I like a good, hot fire.
‘local developers with student housing projects nearby are worried the market is oversaturated…‘The market’s overbuilt. Anybody with half a brain can see that, so you got to pick and choose your spaces really carefully,’ said Dan Hamelberg, developer of the Midtown Plaza, which has 104 units.’
‘Several apartment buildings have been built in Campustown and Midtown over the last few years, with more on the way. ‘Local developers and local banks know what’s going on,’ he said. ‘The time has come for people who are outside of our market to realize that we have a vacancy rate, and it will go higher if you come in with a couple hundred more units.’
We’ve seen this for years now too. Locals pointing out that more construction doesn’t make sense yet here it comes.
‘A long-planned apartment development near Evergreen-Rotary Park is back on the market after its owner defaulted on the property’s loan’
So it goes back to the lender, meaning no bids or at least none that meet the reserve.
‘Its new property listing advertises ‘great value at $30k a door for a ‘fully permitted site!!’
If I’m reading this right, there aren’t any doors.
I interpret that to mean that the fully entitled land cost is $30k/unit (or door). Your other hard and soft costs to build the project would be in addition to that.
“If I’m reading this right, there aren’t any doors.”
… and not a buyer in sight.
As my good friend RentalWatch always said…. there’s a globe full of land and 95% of it goes undeveloped. Land is essentially worthless dirt.
‘It’s also notable that even though the top 5 include lots of suburban areas, the municipalities have been adding significant amounts of multi-family units, which is maybe a little surprising…It’s interesting that Albany has added more than 1,000 new residential units over the last decade, yet the Census Bureau estimates that the city’s population is relatively flat since 2010 and has even been declining since 2013.’
Oops!
“Some landlords think by Fall 2019 supply and demand will fall into balance or there could be a surplus of space.”
They can think that all they want, but this is not how manias end. There may be a temporary appearance of a permanently high plateau, but the inevitable crash is only a matter of time.
April 19, 2018
From Bisnow on Florida. “‘Palm Beach is completely on fire,’ said Todd Michael Glaser, a high-end homebuilder who made his name in Miami but has lately been concentrating on Palm Beach County. ‘I’ve never seen the amount of $8M to $70M homes as in the last three and a half, four months. It’s staggering.’ It’s not just single-family homes that are hot, but a new wave of high-end condos and mutifamily apartments, especially in downtown West Palm Beach.”
“Kolter Urban President Bob Vail, who is developing the Alexander, said that there is something of an arms race for amenities in the new supply of high-end homes. ‘You see that across the U.S. There are [apartment] buildings in Atlanta, Denver and Dallas that are nicer and more fully amenitized than condominium units, because that’s what it’s going to take to get people to choose that building,’ Vail said. ‘It’s just sort of a differential advantage. It’s really become a race in those more in-demand markets.’”
“Though the market is healthy now, the developers agreed a slowdown is possible as new supply takes time to be absorbed, construction costs rise and actionable sites get harder to find. Low salaries in Palm Beach County mean that not many workers can afford high rents. When an audience member asked whether they were concerned with an economic downturn, Vail responded half-jokingly, ‘Condo developers, we don’t forecast those kind of things, you know what I mean? We’re just go, go go,’ he said. ‘And the faster we go, the faster we get to the closing, and then, I’m not going to say we don’t care, but … ‘ The audience chuckled as he trailed off.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10407
‘And the faster we go, the faster we get to the closing, and then, I’m not going to say we don’t care, but … ‘
Works great until the music stops playing and all the drunk dancers sit down.
The stupidity of liberals/progressives - it burns….
*******
The plan then was to use taxpayer money to ‘buy down’ the rents of vacant market-rate apartments for 400 low- and middle-income households at risk of being priced out of Denver
what a bizarre fallacy buy down or subsidize luxury apartments for people with average jobs and salary. Instead of giving the LL tax breaks to build average apartments at an affordable rent.
North Palm Beach FL Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Construction Costs Fall To 1995 Level
https://www.movoto.com/euless-tx/market-trends/
Recession predictions
I’m thinking 4th quarter 2019
An acquaintance of mine who happens to be a RE broker is predicting a housing crash in Sept/Oct. I’m thinking that will actually be the freeze, or standoff. That happens first, then the crash.
I’d like to see the Deutschebank derivatives crash, first. That’ll be a sight to see.
An acquaintance of mine who happens to be a RE broker is predicting a housing crash in Sept/Oct. I’m thinking that will actually be the freeze, or standoff. That happens first, then the crash.
That would be a good time for a stock market crash. And then let a long long winter for housing start from that.
There won’t be a stock market crash as such, since it’s a rigged system. However, I do believe there will be a “Black Swan” like Yellowstone blowing its top or some such tragic event.
Speaking of which, another volcano just blew in Guatemala:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-03/several-dead-and-missing-after-explosive-volcano-eruption-guatemala
A little more dramatic than the slow drip-drip of Kilauea. And more casualties. Those ash clouds are apocalyptic.
Casualties? I thought all the guats were here doing yard work.
Remind me again why people like to live on the flanks of active volcanoes?
Which is why anyone living within a hundred miles of Yellowstone needs to relocate, and fast.
Which is why anyone living within a hundred miles of Yellowstone needs to relocate, and fast.
There aren’t many of them but they aren’t going anywhere. What is Yellowstone…600k years between eruptions? Way too long for humans to worry about.
Most Predictions Are Wrong, So Let’s Keep Making Them
https://newmr.org/blog/most-predictions-are-wrong-so-lets-keep-making-them/
4th quarter 2021
I’m thinking 4th quarter 2019
In that case we could end up with President Running Deer
“Visa Goes Down in the UK, Chaos Ensues, Cash is Suddenly King”
(snip)
“Card fees, which are paid by merchants and usually passed on to customers via higher prices, normally range between 1% and 3%. Among the entities that get to divvy this moolah up are the bank that issued the visa card and the credit card network – such as Visa, MasterCard, Amex and the like. Visa gets just a small piece of the action, but if it is on every transaction, it adds up. In 2016 Visa extracted $15 billion from processing transactions globally without even carrying any credit risk (the banks have to deal with that).”
FWIW.
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/02/visa-goes-down-in-the-uk-chaos-ensues-cash-is-suddenly-king/
Credit and debit card fraud is rampant in Europe. A few years ago Visa shut down our debit card because we used it at a “risky” ATM (one inside a supermarket). It was a major PITA to get it reactivated, involving phone calls to our bank in the US.
You’re not supposed to carry large amounts of cash when traveling, because that means you’re a drug dealer and it could be confiscated. I also saw a documentary about cops shaking people down in Heathrow, demanding that they prove they obtained the cash legally, in amounts as low as 3000 pounds.
But you can’t rely on plastic either, as in addition to the debit card we also had a couple of credit cards blocked. One thing I did learn was that Euro plastic requires the use of a PIN, unlike US credit cards.
At a small, non tourist trap restaurant in Budapest the waiter seemed surprised that the card reader didn’t ask for a PIN and spat out a receipt for me to sign. Note: your transaction is always processed at your table via a mobile card reader and your card is always in your presence, unlike in the USA.
In Canada they are not allowed to touch your credit card, and signature is always required for me (not for Canadians). It wasn’t that long ago that a young man at the Staples checkout asked to “see” my card and grabbed to take it out of my hand. He couldn’t. “Look with your eyes kid, not your fingers.” I guess they are supposed to keep it if your transaction fails or something.
Will New Jersey go down before Illinois? Lol, this Phil Murphy is a piece of work:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-02/new-jersey-abruptly-freezes-spending-it-nears-financial-disaster
2banans rule.
Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy
The race is on and it looks like heartaches
And the winner loses all
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIfFs7a_aXs
Seattle, WA 98121 Rental Rates Crater 9% YOY As Real Estate Industry Fails To Conceal Housing Correction
https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa-98121/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on rental chart
That moment when you realize that the gummint is one vast criminal enterprise, and that the central banking system and the gummint is one and the same.
That’s the moment that it dawn’s on you that the country is populated by an enormous quantity of totally dumbed-down ignorant pukes.
Combo, I had a feeling you’d respond with the Mr. Banker routine. Know what? It’s getting old. Real old. Not even funny anymore. This goes way beyond the banks taking everyone for a ride. I’m talking about trafficking on a massive, international level, where literally everything is up for grabs, children included. Drugs, weapons, uranium, all kinds of nasty stuff. State Dept, CIA, FBI, DOJ and Pentagon, all involved, all a part of it. Armed forces nothing but thugs, all over the planet. Afghanistan was/is all about the poppies.
All of it under the color of law. It’s almost too much to take in.
“All of it under the color of law. It’s almost too much to take in.”
You are correct, which is my point, part of it at least.
This could/would not happen if the population was not so dumbed-down but, hey, there it is.
Check this out: Here’s a guy who wants to repeal the first amendment …
http://blog.bennettandbennett.com/
Chances are good that a large chunk of the American population will think this is a good idea.
Here’s Mark Dice wandering around the Southern California beaches asking people questions …
https://youtu.be/6CdfsCz1oKo
Mark Dice again …
https://youtu.be/2-Be9f7Ovgg
I remember when Jay Leno used to do the segment Jaywalking, which was similar. The most painful clips were with teachers who couldn’t give the correct answer to simple questions.
Well, the rule of law has been busted out, what follows is the rule of the jungle. Scary thought.
I’m sure most of us here on the blog consider that we have superior intellects to the people that Dice interviews, but I have to say, until Trump, I had no real clue how massive the criminality on all levels of government. What’s the point of building a wall to “keep drugs out” when the CIA and other agencies bring them in via air and sea transport?
“The most painful clips were with teachers who couldn’t give the correct answer to simple questions.”
Hence my mantra: Dumb ‘em down, and profit.
If students were genuinely educated then people such as myself would have to do some actual work in order to make a living.
The same rule applies to politicians; If politicians were selected by an informed citizenry the the quality of politicians would be much higher and all of us would be much better off.
IMO the way to fight the drug scourge is to “Just say no”.
Starve the beast. This may sound simplistic (and it is) but it is effective, more so than anything else I can think of.
A truly educated public would laugh at the idea of indulging in some of the shit that’s being offered up to them but a totally dumbed-down public would jump right in, and does jump right in.
Well, the rule of law has been busted out, what follows is the rule of the jungle. Scary thought.
Which is why the deplorables cling. And rightly so.
Not even funny anymore.
It was tragic from the beginning. Doesn’t mean it’s not true.
Opinion: So much winning: all the latest signs of the bubble that will crush this economic expansion
By Tim Mullaney
Published: June 1, 2018 2:53 p.m. ET
It’s in GDP, the housing market and, yes, President Trump
AFP/Getty Images
Friday’s well-received jobs report aside, this hasn’t been a good week for the economy. After 107 months, we are beginning to see the imbalance — in popular-speak, the bubble — that will eventually end this expansion.
…
Kensington, MD Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Recession Ravages NoVA/DC Area
https://www.movoto.com/kensington-md/market-trends/
Zillow shows a rent/ buy break even of 2 years in CT cites where they show prices falling
how does that work?
Housing deprecation knows no boundary on a map.
Kent, CT Housing Prices Crater 27% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/kent-ct/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
Are you missing out on the cryptoboom?
cryptocurrencies
Traders With Pockets Full of Crypto Quit Wall Street
Millennials who made money trading digital assets in their spare time are breaking away from top firms.
By Alastair Marsh
May 29, 2018, 11:00 PM CDT
How Much Is Bitcoin Really Worth?
How Much Is Bitcoin Really Worth?
Whether cryptocurrencies and the technology that powers them will reshape the financial system remains to be seen. What’s not in doubt is their ability to transform the career paths of bright young minds on Wall Street.
Adrian Xinli Zhang was climbing the ranks at Deutsche Bank AG in New York when he discovered Bitcoin. The 29-year-old made enough money trading digital currencies in his spare time to leave the German bank in March, the same month he was promoted to director, people familiar with the matter said.
At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Jonathan Cheesman, 36, and Justin Saslaw, 28, are among at least three front-office employees in New York who quit the bank this year after making personal profits from cryptocurrencies, said people with knowledge of the situation, asking not to be identified. In London, Asim Ahmad pocketed enough from investing his savings in Ether to walk away from BlackRock Inc.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-30/traders-with-pockets-full-of-cryptocurrencies-quit-wall-street
fliptocurrencies
You can buy this Westport house in bitcoin
By Sophie Vaughan Updated 3:28 pm, Thursday, May 31, 2018
WESTPORT — The new construction home at 5 Ridgewood Lane is similar to many homes currently on the market, with one notable exception: the owner will accept bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as means of purchase.
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Bitcoin Home Buyer? 8 Houses You Can Snag Now With Cryptocurrency
“I wanted to reach an audience that doesn’t have as many opportunities to put their investment in real estate,” the home’s real estate salesperson and owner Susan Vanech, said. “It was really to reach an audience that is otherwise ignored in the world of commerce.”
Vanech, a Fairfield resident, works for William Pitt Sotheby’s International Realty out of its Westport office and together with her husband, Matt Brodtman, owns Vanbrodt Estates LLC, a real estate company that for the past nine years has invested in buying, selling and renovating homes in the Westport area.
In 2016, Vanech and her husband bought 5 Ridgewood Lane for $575,000 and renovated the home with Fairfield-based Tiago Building Group. The property, listed at 250 bitcoin or $1,648,000, recently won a Home Builders & Remodelers Association of Connecticut (HOBI) award for its mix of classic farmhouse style and modern technological elements.
https://www.westport-news.com/realestate/article/You-can-buy-this-Westport-house-in-bitcoin-12957908.php
Presidential candidate Donald Trump on crime and poverty in inner city America, Austin, TX, 8/24/2016 (fast forward to 13:40 for quote):
“This is the legacy of President Obama and Hillary Clinton …
What do you have to lose?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RL5ZEtxSD0
Presidential candidate Donald Trump addresses African-American faith and community leadership in Charlotte, NC, 10/26/2016:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OF2e8vqicb0
Ben Jones, is CNN fake news?