A Flood Of New Supply And Weakening Demand
A report from Q 13 Fox in Washington. “Some experts say Seattle is approaching a peak for apartment units available. That means renters could see savings, but it could also mean incentives as well. According to the Seattle Times, 26% of all apartments in Seattle are sitting empty. ‘Now we’re seeing a lot more units coming online in the central Seattle market area,’ said Matthew Gardner, chief economist for Windemere Real Estate.”
“According to Gardner, the most recent stats from 2017 say in Seattle, developers have added 4,000 apartment units while 10,000 are slated for completion in the near future. ‘Because we’ve seen such a substantial amount of new supply, it’s become remarkably competitive, far more competitive since before the recession,’ he said.”
The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “According to Zumper, market rate rents reveal that the Marina and Telegraph Hill had the fastest-growing prices last quarter. Interestingly, Lower Pacific Heights — which is arguably close enough to tech related business, and had previously enjoyed an upward rent trend–went down. Year-over-year rents here dipped 7 percent. Zumper found the most affordable one-bedrooms in Bayview, Inner Sunset, and West of Twin Peaks, where units listed for a median of $2,900.”
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Dallas-Fort Worth’s net apartment leasing totaled 5,465 units in the second quarter. That sounds like a lot, but it’s not enough. Developers completed almost 7,000 apartments in the last three months. And on an annual basis, apartment demand is lagging new supply by almost 10,000 units, according to RealPage. At the same time, developers have ramped up building to more than 37,000 apartments on the way in North Texas — more than any other metro market in the country. No wonder apartment rents are actually falling in some parts of D-FW.”
From Tucson Weekly in Arizona. “The latest proposal for development around the Benedictine Monastery didn’t receive much support from the 100 or so neighbors who attended a public meeting. City Councilmember Steve Kozachik says student housing is already overbuilt in Tucson, and a student housing developer would be unlikely to want to build out that site with the space restrictions. He said there’s still room for compromise at a lower height. ‘You don’t get to start with a ridiculous height, drop it down a little and say you’ve compromised,’ he said. ‘Country Club is not the middle of New York City.’”
The Centre Daily Times in Pennsylvania. “Hundreds of new student housing units coming online in downtown State College are creating competition for property managers and owners of older units. ‘I think you see people who are advertising that never had to advertise before,’ said Jim May, Centre Regional Planning Agency director. Mark Bigatel, president of Associated Realty Property Management, which manages about 1,200 units downtown, said the market is ’saturated’ with new student housing complexes, both downtown and in the surrounding area. He said ARPM has a vacancy rate it’s never had before (2-3 percent last year), mostly in the two- and three-bedroom units. ‘We’re doing whatever we can to fill those,’ Bigatel said.”
From the Times Record. “The University of Oklahoma may help a struggling municipal-bond financed luxury dorm by offering housing ’scholarships’ to help students afford rental payments, university administrators and the non-profit owner of the project said on a conference call with investors. The new apartment building, known as Cross, opens in August and is just 28 percent leased. It features a ‘blow dry bar and salon,’ cycling studio, cafe and a Lululemon store. ‘We are keenly aware of the challenges that Cross is facing,’ said Steve Hicks, CEO of Provident Resources Group, a non-profit that financed the student housing with $250 million of municipal bonds.”
“The Oklahoma project and another municipal-bond financed complex at Texas A&M, which had to slash rents to fill beds, underscore the risk to investors of overbuilding luxury accommodations as students become more cost-conscious. While many universities have tapped outsiders to finance and build dorms to conserve money for academics, the University of Oklahoma project shows that developers will turn to the universities for assistance if projects falter. In late May, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the dormitory bonds to BB, two steps into junk, and left a negative outlook on the securities, signaling they may be cut deeper.”
The Washington Post. “The good news for renters in the Washington area is that they don’t have to give up living near a Metro station to save on rent. Switching from one station to another can mean saving $475 to $1,100 on the median monthly rent, according to RentHop. The top three stations where median rents dropped the most are: U Street, Forest Glen and Court House.”
From Axios. “Rental growth in the United States has reached its lowest level since 2010 as some of America’s biggest cities have been hit by a flood of newly-built luxury apartments coming online. The cities that have experienced the sharpest flattening in rental growth often have rather strong economies, according to RealPage data, but tend to have new high-end apartments hitting the market, pricing out a large segment of the community.”
“‘We’re at best only halfway through the period of peak deliveries,’ according to RealPage chief economist Greg Willett. ‘Ongoing construction of market-rate product totals just a hair under 400,000 market-rate units in the RealPage count, with annual deliveries set to stay right around 300,000 units through the middle of 2019.’”
“‘That’s just too much inventory. In order to get those apartments absorbed, even with good strong job growth, it’s taking the sizzle out of the market,’Ric Campo, CEO of Camden Property Trust, tells the Wall Street Journal And millennials are growing up and leaving the apartment rental market as they get married, start families, and move to larger homes.”
From Realtor.com. “The U.S. apartment market suffered its worst spring since 2010, near the depths of the housing crisis, as a flood of new supply and weakening demand resulted in rising vacancy rates. Joshua Clark, an economist at Hotpads who was looking recently for an apartment in the Capitol Hill area in Seattle, saw the $2,500 Amazon gift card offer. ‘I had my mouth open for a second. Seriously a lot of my expenses would be covered for the year, which would be fantastic’ he said.”
“Greg Willett, chief economist at RealPage, predicted average rents nationwide could flatten if current trends continue. ‘It’s kind of telling as we look at some of these individual markets that are losing momentum because they’re important ones,’ Mr. Willett said. The cause of the slowdown is primarily new supply. Developers responded to escalating rents by building the most new apartments in 30 years, sending a flood of new high-end units to downtown areas across the country.”
“The softening is taking place even in high growth cities. For example, the Dallas metropolitan area has the strongest job growth in the country. The problem in Dallas, landlords said, is simply too much supply. Developers are building about 22,000 apartments right now, compared with a long-term average of less than half that. Little concern has arisen that the softening could have broader economic repercussions for the U.S. financial system. Compared with the last real-estate crash, owners say there are unlikely to be many foreclosures because they are carrying much less debt.”
“Jay Hiemenz, COO of Phoenix-based Alliance Residential, an apartment company, said banks are only giving loans to developers for about 65% of the cost to build a project, compared to 80% or more previously. ‘Absent some shock that none of us can see, we will have a softer landing,’ he said.”
The Milwaukee Business Times in Wisconsin. “A vacant office building in Wauwatosa’s East Tosa neighborhood could be redeveloped into a mixed-use development or business incubator. Nancy Welch, one of the aldermen who opposed the Klein Development apartments, said affordable housing in Wauwatosa is a good idea. ‘We seem to have a glut of apartments that are market rate, but an increasing lack of affordable units,’ Welch said. ‘Not everyone employed at the Medical College or at businesses in Wauwatosa earn enough money to afford $1,500 a month rents.’”
From WGBH in Massachusetts. “There’s evidence a lot of people may be looking beyond Boston for a more affordable life. ‘We have actually been losing population to other states and the only way we’ve been able to keep jobs filled in recent years is from foreign immigration,’ said Clark Zeigler, executive director of the Massachusetts Housing Partnership. He said the problem is a housing shortage - and that it’s a threat to the booming economy. Although housing construction is also booming.”
“This summer alone more than two thousand new apartments will become available in and around Boston. That’s on top of more than 22-thousand apartment units built in the last three years. With land at a premium, almost all the new apartment buildings built near Boston are high-end with amenities like pools, roof-decks and concierge services. A $2500-a month- studio may be out of reach for many renters, but there’s an expectation that increased supply will ease what’s been a steady hike in rents. ‘Our prediction is that over the next five years or so you’re only going to see an average of one to two percent increase in rents,’ said Mark Hickey, an economist with CoStar.”
This post is a little long, but hey, the reports are piling up.
‘Our prediction is that over the next five years or so you’re only going to see an average of one to two percent increase in rents,’ said Mark Hickey, an economist with CoStar’
Listen to Costar - go bankrupt.
Add inflation n repairs = drink
Taxes will zoom as pensions based on 7.5% need to be fed
‘Fort Worth’s city manager will present a plan to the city council on Tuesday to solve a pension shortfall that includes changing benefits for existing retirees, a move he admits will be controversial. “My initial impression is it’s just not fair to change the rules,” said firefighter Jim Tate, 60, who retired two years ago after 31 years with the department.’
‘He said it’s not fair to change his promised benefits. “They’ve cut our health care. Now they’re coming after the pension,” he said.’
‘A promising new deal in the Dallas Police and Fire Pension crisis is the result of negotiations with state senators in Austin the past two days, according to participants in the talks. Thomas Glover, president of the Black Police Association of Greater Dallas, is not sold on the deal.’
‘Glover strongly opposes that “clawback” on Deferred Retirement Option Plan (DROP) savings money already promised to plan members in the past is in the bill. “I don’t think that you’re going to do your best in recruiting if people think you’re going to break your promise,” Glover said.’
Clawback?
Funny how the Fortune 500 have no problem recruiting and hiring without offering any pensions.
When there’s no money, there’s no money. Keep raising taxes and you will eventually get taxpayer revolts.
That’s because you know the game before going in for the interview at the fortune 500 company.
My bother is in a system (public education) that has a pension, but also a very fixed career path in terms of salary and raises. He doesn’t have much more security than a private sector job, but is fiscally limited by the strict salary scales.
Whereas I on the other hand am in the private-sector wild-west and have seen year over year income swings in excess of $100K.
We’re an interesting study in fiscal contrasts. He’ll be in decent shape when he retires, but it’s out of his control if the local government pull the rug out from under retirees, because the pension funds were badly managed.
I’m not in that great of shape for retirement due to my divorce (SAHM cheating ex got the majority of my retirement accounts - and spent it within a year), but I have had the ability to make up all the lost ground and more in a short period of time, and I also have control over how it is invested, etc. But that leaves me at the direct mercy of the markets, etc.
Whereas I on the other hand am in the private-sector wild-west and have seen year over year income swings in excess of $100K.
From what I’ve seen in the Fortune 500, pay is stagnant and going years without a raise is common. Maybe civil servants only 2-3% a year, but that’s better than 0%.
He doesn’t have much more security than a private sector job
A relative just found out that her contract with her school district won’t be renewed. This is the third time it’s happened to her.
I realize that this is a YMMV thing, as in some states teachers are fireproof. She should be able to find another gig, as there are several districts near her home and they all fire like crazy every year, so there are openings.
My wife is a 12-year teacher. She only has a bachelor’s degree and has thought about getting her master’s degree for the pay bump. Besides the fact that we have a young child at home, one reason she does not pursue this is that some administrators tend to tacitly look for ways to get rid of expensive teachers. A the teacher salary schedule rewards tenure and and advanced education and certifications such as master’s degree or a doctorate.
In any event, this strategy has run its course and we experienced a mini crisis. Our (very red) state had to raise teacher pay significantly in all districts. This was a welcome development because pay was pitifully low. It was so low that there was an all-time low in students in the university system state-wide who chose to major in a secondary or primary education degree.
Wow, I just re-read my post. I apologize for the poor grammar.
“Maybe civil servants only 2-3% a year, but that’s better than 0%.”
Which civil servants are getting those 2%-3% a year increases?
Trump Formalizes 2019 Pay Freeze Proposal, Revives Benefits Cuts
Federal workers put out copies of the Trump administration’s FY2019 budget proposal. Federal workers put out copies of the Trump administration’s FY2019 budget proposal. Government Printing Office photo
The Trump administration announced Monday that it will seek a pay freeze for all civilian employees in 2019, confirming a plan long expected from the White House.
The administration’s fiscal 2019 budget proposal released Monday by the Office of Management and Budget also includes a number of provisions that would cut federal workers’ retirement and other benefits.
…
I have three words of wisdom for your wife: Teach community college.
Clawback?
Thats why i proposed long ago blame it on the union workers who quit smoking and got healthy. and they never adjusted the payouts for a longer lifespan.
Actuaries should have picked up on this years ago and eliminated any early retirement say at 55 or 30 years and out or payout less like SS
Or if you want full early retirement you need to verify each year you dont have another paying job. i think the 7.5% expected growth actually is not as bad as half of the workforce quitting smoking and not winding up obese.
Shouldn’t the diabeetus offset the gains from not smoking though?
I went to a bday party at a public pool for a friend’s 5 year old. I had to pour bleach in my eyes when I got home….nice pool, they had everything water slides, diving pools, etc. but geez there are a lot of fat people nowadays.
We’re currently in a health bubble, while the non-smoking 70-year-old are still alive and the obese 45-50-year-olds are buoyed by new diabetes treatments and haven’t gotten truly sick yet.
It’s going to be much worse in 15-20 years when that health bubble pops. The non-smokers are going to waste away from a different disease when they are 85-90 and the obese will have full-blown diabetes when they are 65-70. And everyone else will have dimentia. Everyone sick — in a very expensive way — at the same time.
“I had to pour bleach in my eyes when I got home….nice pool, they had everything water slides, diving pools, etc. but geez there are a lot of fat people nowadays.”
Ewww. Just the thought is enough to make me gag - all that stinky, smelly body odor washed off into a giant vat of warm water that ultimately goes into your eyes, ears, mouth etc. Yeeeuck.
“…geez there are a lot of fat people nowadays.”
The many of the young ladies in eastern Washington have no shame these days… no resistance to high fructose corn syrup. They don’t even wait till after the wedding cake these days. Used to be the young busty ladies getting married quickly, but now all it takes is to be fit and trim.
Sweet,let them experience the private sector
They could get bought by a private equity firm and change capitalization (in more ways than one, lol) to CostAr - as if a pirate is saying it!
It doesn’t work that way. Once appreciation plateaus, speculators dump, resulting in a glut of apartments for sale, falling prices, and falling rents… your basic death spiral.
‘According to the Seattle Times, 26% of all apartments in Seattle are sitting empty’
That’s some shortage!
‘Compared with the last real-estate crash, owners say there are unlikely to be many foreclosures because they are carrying much less debt.’
You’re kidding right? Apartment people crow endlessly about leverage and cash out refinancing.
‘Jay Hiemenz, COO of Phoenix-based Alliance Residential, an apartment company, said banks are only giving loans to developers for about 65% of the cost to build a project, compared to 80% or more previously. ‘Absent some shock that none of us can see, we will have a softer landing’
Click!
In the comments from a previous posting last week, i had given my mea culpa. I have been following this blog for a long time, but i had not personally seen strong visual evidence of the apartment overbuild and resulting vacancy. Somehow in the neighbourhoods that i hang out in (downtown Seattle - Belltown, South Lake Union, lower Queen Ann) i did not notice a lot of empty units by the empty units and no lights on. HOWEVER ….
I believe the stats. SLU and Belltown (Amazon/Google techies) were listed at 14% vacancy in the Seattle Times - but to get to 26% overall Seattle vacancies, there must be some complexes with 50% vacancies.
Some observations (note. which in my case have proven to be faulty for the housing scenario)
1. An expensive apartment complex at 3rd/Cedar (http://www.dimensionseattle.com/#) which is 2 blocks from my condo. Last night at 10PM most of the units had light on
2. We were driving up 15 Ave (Rapid Ride D line) through Ballard yesterday afternoon to drop off items for a church charity. There were a lot of new complexes (not huge 200 unit ones - but maybe 40-70 units). They looked like they were just starting to rent out or be completed. so capacity coming online
3. I went to the U.Village on Thu (nice neighborhood and shopping center near UW where both the Apple and Microsoft stores are located). There was a lot of smaller properties being torn down. so they are still plans to build much more. This is in addition to the gigantic residential towers going up on the former Seattle Times sites.
SOOOOO …
1. This might be a case of some neighborhoods/complexes going to get severely hammered first — and it will take 1 or 2 years to cascade into the more preferential ones
2. Even if you believe things (like Seattle being overbuilt), it is harder to personally observe. I was looking for this and still could not get to the vacancy levels.
‘there must be some complexes with 50% vacancies’
June 26, 2018
‘At newly opened properties, 40 percent of all brand-new units across the region are sitting empty — that works out to about 5,000 units that have never been lived in’
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10474
Predicts that’s rents could flatten
Wow,dude they already have
‘Switching from one station to another can mean saving $475 to $1,100 on the median monthly rent…The top three stations where median rents dropped the most are: U Street, Forest Glen and Court House’
You’ve probably never been to the big city taxpayer, but that’ll buy a lot of pop and moon pies in your zip code. Every month!
I’m sure the pop and moon pies is a reference to a movie somewhere.
Anyway, U Street is right downtown. Those units probably have a lot of competition from other new luxury units.
Forest Glen is the next-to-the-last stop. It’s a 30-minute train ride to downtown, possibly more. It’s mainly an inner suburb bedroom community of small brick SFH. It’s not very “vibrant,” unless you like mariachi music. I can see renters abandoning the place for units close to downtown.
Court House is on the Northern Virginia side of the river, pretty close to downtown. I don’t know it very well. I believe it was very built up during the 2007 bubble, so I guess there’s competition with 10-year-old grade B+ stock.
‘I’m sure the pop and moon pies is a reference to a movie somewhere’
‘Agnotology (formerly agnatology) is the study of culturally induced ignorance or doubt, particularly the publication of inaccurate or misleading scientific data. In 1995 Robert N. Proctor, a Stanford University professor specializing in the history of science and technology,[1] and linguist Iain Boal coined the neologism[2][3][4] on the basis of the Neoclassical Greek word ἄγνωσις, agnōsis, “not knowing” (cf. Attic Greek ἄγνωτος “unknown”[5]), and -λογία, -logia.[6] More generally, the term also highlights the increasingly common condition where more knowledge of a subject leaves one more uncertain than before. David Dunning of Cornell University is another academic who studies the spread of ignorance. “Dunning warns that the internet is helping propagate ignorance – it is a place where everyone has a chance to be their own expert, he says, which makes them prey for powerful interests wishing to deliberately spread ignorance”.[7]‘
‘RC Cola and MoonPies Are a Classic Southern Match’
‘While a pairing between RC Cola and MoonPies sound a bit out of the ordinary, the marriage has been happy and well since the the 1930s. Coined as “The Working Man’s Lunch” a meal of a RC Cola and a MoonPie would put you back a dime, making these two treats affordable to any coal miner or laborer.’
‘The two iconic American staples haven’t always gone hand-in-hand. In fact, RC Cola was created almost fifteen years after the MoonPie. With their factories in Chattanooga, Tennessee and Columbus, Georgia their courtship was more of a long-distance affair. But before we get too far, let’s get the whole story of their budding relationship.’
‘Once Mott took over the formula for the cola was changed as well as the name. RC Cola was no longer an infringement on Coca-Cola and the product began to sell all across the South, mainly paired with MoonPies as a Great Depression snack.’
‘From there on, Royal Crown Cola and MoonPies became the cultural icons for the working-class. Neither of the two brands had ever decided to pair the two products together but rather it was the work of the Southern culture.’
There is some heavy train maintenance coming up where lines will be shutdown, bus alternatives. Or at least single tracking. This is probably why some apartments are losing people.
I knew about the moon pies and RC cola, I think what tripped me up was the “You’ve probably never been to the big city taxpayer” part. Because I’m SURE that taxpayers has been to Downtown DC at some point.
————-
Ethan, thanks for the insight. I forgot about Metro. But I wasn’t aware of major tracking near Forest Glen or on the Orange Line where Courthouse is. U Street is relatively deep downtown, to where you could probably walk or take a quick bus to work faster than walking to and from Metro.
IIRC, there are major shutdowns planned for the Blue and Yellow lines south of National Airport, so there might be some activity there.
Fxco taxpayers pay $640 per household per year so their neighbors riding metro
243,000,000/370,000
Found this article: https://news.theregistryps.com/is-this-going-to-crush-rents-in-seattle/
South Seattle will probably be crushed early - that (with some exceptions) is seen as a 2nd option
——————————-
Currently under construction: 25,164 apartments in buildings with over 50 units.
Planned but construction has not yet begun: 34,800 apartments in buildings with over 50 units.
This makes for a total of 60,000 apartment units, planned or under construction, just in buildings with more than 50 units, according to the Q2 report by multifamily property data provider Apartment Insights.
Among the submarkets with the most units:
South Lake Union: 3,384 units under construction; 3,561 units planned
Redmond: 3,188 units under construction; 1,730 units planned
Seattle Downtown: 2,696 units under construction; 9,390 units planned
Central/South Seattle: 2,618 units under construction; 4,665 units planned.
b,
I think the oversupply is inconsistent, so I think we are in agreement.
So many of the new projects were targeting specific groups of renters while other groups are still ignored. It’s all about the max ROI to get the project funded (and sold off once completed)
“That’s some shortage!”
They better get slashing.
“Seattle Landlords Scrambling to Fill Growing Number of Empty Apartments”
https://www.planetizen.com/news/2018/07/99368-seattle-landlords-scrambling-fill-growing-number-empty-apartments
“They better get slashing.”
Some things just make you laugh.
‘The new apartment building, known as Cross, opens in August and is just 28 percent leased. It features a ‘blow dry bar and salon,’ cycling studio, cafe and a Lululemon store. ‘We are keenly aware of the challenges that Cross is facing,’ said Steve Hicks, CEO of Provident Resources Group, a non-profit that financed the student housing with $250 million of municipal bonds’
Have you ever wondered what many retirements going up in smoke looks like?
‘Steve Hicks, CEO of…a non-profit’
Seattle landlords are also now non-profit. Dallas too!
It’s a wonder that anyone buys municipal bonds anymore. All they use bonds for is pensions, excessive sports stadiums, and crappy building projects.
Yep, they’ve become just another name for state sanctioned fraud, a way to get around having to have a balanced budget.
Another (predominately) blue state scheme designed to implode the economy. I read while Clownifornia was crowing about a budget surplus a year or two ago, its financial disclosures noted it being something like 150B(!) in the hole.
Party on Gov Brown - that nose of yours looks like its gone through a mountain of bolivias finest - probably off the backs of some illegals too!
Pardon my French, but what the hell is a “Lululemon” store?
Sounds retarded.
I believe it’s a brand of yoga pants.
“I believe it’s a brand of yoga pants.”
Friends don’t ask how you’re doing… they know.
https://imgur.com/a/pbKkxFk
She’s borderline anorexic. Look at those upper arms.
“Some of you know what I’m talking about some of you are from a small town and yoga pants haven’t hit there yet. In 2009 a man named Lululemon came up with these pants for yoga. Not one of you ladies has worn them to yoga since. You were them to do everything but yoga! Just ’cause you bent over in a Jamba Juice doesn’t mean you need yoga pants on!”
Ian Bragg, Last Comic Standing (start at 0:50):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hgtu1Ac6Ilk
Sagle, Idaho Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/id/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
‘apartment demand is lagging new supply by almost 10,000 units, according to RealPage. At the same time, developers have ramped up building to more than 37,000 apartments on the way in North Texas’
Me confused? We were told repeatedly, year after year, that we need to build millions more shacks and airboxes, just to get everybody out of their cardboard boxes! And all along I said there wasn’t a shortage. The logical conclusion (not a prediction - none required) was this crazy building would have a sad panda out come.
Ta-da!
‘In late May, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the dormitory bonds to BB, two steps into junk, and left a negative outlook on the securities, signaling they may be cut deeper’
Listen to S&P -go bankrupt.
North Texas has always been about sprawl and expansion onto cheap land. There are a number of older areas closer to the city centers that are near ghost towns and would have made better sense to re-develop.
That’s the case with every big city. Suburban sprawl. NYC is a perfect example.
‘Greg Willett, chief economist at RealPage, predicted average rents nationwide could flatten if current trends continue. ‘It’s kind of telling as we look at some of these individual markets that are losing momentum because they’re important ones’
Do tell! But important how? Cuz you’ve got no excuse as these have the highest wages and boom-boom etc? Behold, the “experts” are now standing before you with their pants down, thumbs in their mouths and increasingly looking like fools.
‘Interestingly, Lower Pacific Heights — which is arguably close enough to tech related business, and had previously enjoyed an upward rent trend–went down. Year-over-year rents here dipped 7 percent’
But tech? Flying cars?
There’s never been a better time to be a renter. Cheap rents, comin’ right up!!!
San Jose, CA (Evergreen) Rental Rates Crater 7% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/evergreen-san-jose-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on rental chart
Tesla shareholders have had a wild ride today. Apparently it took people a while for people to realize that Musk threw quality out the window to get close to the goal.
Not looking good for tech and tech related housing
That’s definitely not good for Tesla. IIUC Tesla’s reputation is for high quality (justify the price), exclusiveness, and being enviro friendly. The minute they become “just another” car company, they may as well be Ford.
The minute they become “just another” car company, they may as well be Ford.
It’s inevitable, other carmakers also have electric cars. Unless Teslas can fly they won’t be all that different, except that the other established luxury brands will have better build quality.
You guys make me laugh. Ford makes cars to sit on lots, Tesla makes cars that people have already ordered. Ford won’t make and sell 7000 electric cars in a year. None of the big automakers make any profit on their electric cars. Tesla is about to turn the corner and will probably be profitable 4th quarter, maybe 3rd. All other companies are making compliance EVs that are decent at best (BMW i3 is good, but super expensive and Chevy Bolt is really good, but not very sexy).
I run with the former comptroller and C-suite finance exec at Ford and we talk cars a lot. The truth is Ford is falling far behind. GM has seen the light and VW’s scandal actually put the fear of God in them and they are making the transition. I applaud Ford for not taking any bailout money, but they very well may have too as they are falling behind on autonomy, electrification, and ride sharing/mobility.
Also, Ford basically abandoned the car market and have went all in on trucks and SUVs. If oil keeps climbing, they might rue the day they made that decision.
Does your insider friend have any word on the refueling/recharging infrastructure? Because right now it’s pathetic.
Not really. He’s not into the electric game, though he loves his C-Max hybrid the company gives him for free (1 of 2 vehicles as part of his pension benefits). There is a significant age difference between us, and I think this old school vs. new school thinking is what might be getting Ford into trouble.
I don’t see any way Tesla doesn’t go bankrupt.
True but that does not mean out of business, just severe pain for the shareholders and moderate pain for the bond holders and creditors
‘‘I think you see people who are advertising that never had to advertise before’ said Jim May, Centre Regional Planning Agency director. Mark Bigatel, president of Associated Realty Property Management, which manages about 1,200 units downtown, said the market is ’saturated’ with new student housing complexes, both downtown and in the surrounding area. He said ARPM has a vacancy rate it’s never had before’
Never? Golly, that sounds ominous! Just how could so many markets get un-shortaged at the same time all over the place? It’s almost like this shortage talk was bogus all along.
6015 Sunset Blvd
Flagstaff, AZ 86004
2 baths 1,884 sqft 1.15 acres lot size Mobile/Manufactured
This Mobile/Manufactured is located at 6015 Sunset Blvd, Flagstaff, AZ is currently for sale and has been listed on Trulia for 440 days. 6015 Sunset Blvd2 baths and approximately 1,884 square feet. The property has a lot size of 1.15 acres sqft and was built in 2003.
The lender, LAKEVIEW LOAN SERVICING LLC, has taken ownership of this property through a foreclosure auction for the amount of . The lender may list it for sale as a foreclosure property in the future.
07/18/2017
The owner of this property has been served a Notice of Sale. The property is scheduled to be sold at a foreclosure auction on 07/18/2017. The auction is scheduled to take place at 200 N SAN FRANCISCO ST FLAGSTAFF. Because auction dates often change or are postponed, please confirm the auction date with a foreclosure specialist.
07/09/2013
$159,000
Previous Sale
The property was sold for $159,000.
https://www.trulia.com/p/az/flagstaff/6015-sunset-blvd-flagstaff-az-86004–2181557832
Here’s the zillow thing:
6015 E Sunset Blvd, Flagstaff, AZ 86004
4 beds 2 baths 1,884 sqft
Off Market
Zestimate®: $264,848
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6015-E-Sunset-Blvd-Flagstaff-AZ-86004/2113157281_zpid/
For what it’s worth.
A relative put their Ladera Heights, CA house on the market last week. Three offers in two days with the highest being asking price which is $1,350,000.00.
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/5121-S-Sherbourne-Dr_Los-Angeles_CA_90056_M24698-86995#photo31
Inside looks like a Shakey’s Pizza and no real upgrades since the 70’s.
Bought ten years ago, right before the bust, for $1,050,000.00.
Nice SoCal rancher… wonder what it was worth around 1996?
Surfside Beach, TX Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/surfside-beach-tx/market-trends/
Wondering how these tariffs will impact our investments, especially in real estate.
Largest U.S. business group attacks Trump on tariffs
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation’s largest business lobbying group and customarily a close ally of President Donald Trump’s Republican Party, is launching a campaign on Monday to oppose Trump’s trade tariff policies.
The new campaign, detailed first to Reuters, will provide an analysis of the financial hit each U.S. state stands take from potential retaliation to Trump’s tariffs. It argues that Trump is risking a global trade war that will hit the wallets of U.S. consumers….
With some of America’s closest trading partners imposing retaliatory measures, Trump’s approach to tariffs has unsettled financial markets and strained relations between the White House and the Chamber.
“The administration is threatening to undermine the economic progress it worked so hard to achieve,” said Chamber President Tom Donohue in a statement to Reuters. “We should seek free and fair trade, but this is just not the way to do it.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-chamber-exclusive/exclusive-largest-u-s-business-group-attacks-trump-on-tariffs-idUSKBN1JS0VL
‘The U.S. Chamber of Commerce’
Probably want to reopen that amnesty discussion too.
Everything is turned upside down:
‘Breaking With Trump’s GOP, Koch Brothers Praise Democrats On Immigration’
‘The Koch brothers are going rogue. For years the political network funded by billionaires Charles and David Koch funded politicians on the right, laying the foundation for the libertarian causes the two support. Their support has gone almost exclusively to Republican candidates, with rare exception.’
‘But in the era of Trump, what it means to be on the “right” is changing, and the Koch network’s tactics are changing to reflect new realities.’
‘For the first time, the LIBRE Initiative — the Hispanic outreach arm of the Koch network — is putting money behind efforts to praise Democrats on the federal level, and doing so with control of Congress on the line in the midterm elections.’
“In order to get this through the House and Senate, it is important for Democrats to be at the table … for us, it’s how do we achieve the goal?” Gaitan said. “And what we said is we’re willing to work with whoever to make sure that we’re getting good policy through Congress.”
Remember when the mean old republicans wanted illegal immigration so’s to get cheap labor? And the Koch brothers were ghastly distorters of the democratic process?
‘what it means to be on the “right” is changing’
You said a mouth-full PBS.
the Hispanic outreach arm of the
So a bunch of people of Hispanics heritage are favoring immigration of other people of Hispanic heritage, for no other reason than the fact that the immigrants are of Hispanic heritage.
Racis, right out in plain sight.
It’s only racist when white people do it.
Get with the program.
It’s okay when POCs do it, because that’s reparations, making up for lost time, etc.
Probably want to reopen that amnesty discussion too.
Of that there is no doubt. It’s no longer about “conservative” vs. “liberal” as the lines have been blurred. “Conservative” Big biz supports open borders and other causes associated with the left. It’s now about nationalism vs. globalism.
Lindsey Graham Just Argued that Globalism Comes Before Country …
https://truthfeednews.com › Breaking News
Jan 14, 2018 - Lindsey Graham Just Argued that Globalism Comes Before Country … Traitor and GOP globalist Senator Lindsey Graham is lecturing you and …
Lindsey Graham: ‘I can’t stop globalization’ - Washington Examiner
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/lindsey-graham-i-cant-stop-globalization
Apr 1, 2017 - Globalization is a force that Sen. Lindsey Graham says he is incapable of stopping.
Lindsey Graham: I’m Not Sure McCain is Right About Where America …
https://www.mediaite.com/…/lindsey-graham-im-not-sure-mccain-is-right-on-where-a...
Jun 10, 2018 - Lindsey Graham and John McCain. … Lindsey Graham: I’m Not Sure McCain is Right About Where America Stands on Globalism and Trade …
Globalization: political rhetoric vs. on-the-ground reality - Marketplace
https://www.marketplace.org/2017/…/globalization-political-rhetoric-vs-ground-realit...
Jun 26, 2017 - Lindsey Graham had this to say on Twitter: “to those who fear globalization, embrace it b/c it’s not going away…if you want to see the good it can …
Lindsey Graham - Posts | Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/LindseyGrahamSC/posts/603988863061792
The Facebook page for United States Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South … “I’m not sure the majority of Americans believe globalism and free trade is in our …
Lindsey Graham says he’s come around to Trump - Axios
https://www.axios.com/lindsey-graham-says-hes-come-around-to-trump-1515110932...
Dec 31, 2017 - The big picture: Trump’s war on globalism. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images. This leaked WTO bill is part of a much larger story. Trump’s war …
Jonathan Haidt: The Psychological Roots Of Nationalism vs. Globalism
Oct 17, 2017 - Uploaded by PhilosophyInsights
The new left/right is the globalists vs. the nationalists. … Lindsey Graham: Congress Must Show China We Have …
Trump is not a globalist like Lindsey Graham | Exposing Modern …
https://exposingmodernmugwumps.com/…/trump-is-not-a-globalist-like-lindsey-graha...
Well Lindsey, that’s for damned sure. Trump is nothing like the globalists running for president under the GOP banner. There is not a one of them who is an …
Why do the people of South Carolina continue to elect this globalist pig?
To small for a republic and too large for an insane asylum.
I do not know about the latter we have a lot of crazy people in this country
Spectator — The Collapse of the Never-Trump Conservatives:
“Kristol was not alone in his contempt for Trump — he was only the most vocal and unhinged. Alongside him were other conservatives like Jennifer Rubin and George Will and Michael Gerson at the Washington Post; Bret Stephens at the Wall Street Journal; David Brooks and Ross Douthat at the New York Times; Jonah Goldberg and David French at National Review; Ramesh Ponnuru at Bloomberg; and Erick Erickson at RedState. A number of others, people like David Frum and Ana Navarro, committed political seppuku early and endorsed Hillary Clinton. Needless to say, the careers of most of these people have been curtailed dramatically.
What happened? If these intellectuals were so influential in the conservative movement, then why has their apostasy garnered so little attention? A Ramesh Ponnuru editorial in Bloomberg blurted out this truth: “In 2016 we found out that conservative elites didn’t speak for Republican voters.” This split between the party’s base and its donor class (as well as the donor-funded intellectuals) was years in the making, but it became obvious once Trump became the nominee. Then the truth became obvious and damning: the Never Trumpers represented no one but themselves.”
https://spectator.org/the-collapse-of-the-never-trump-conservatives/
‘Tucker Carlson was one of the few to see this stupidity early and he registered his dissent well in a break-out essay: “Conservative voters are being scolded for supporting a candidate they consider conservative because it would be bad for conservatism? And by the way, the people doing the scolding? They’re the ones who’ve been advocating for open borders, and nation-building in countries whose populations hate us, and trade deals that eliminated jobs while enriching their donors.”
‘Carlson nailed the heart of the matter: “If Trump is leading a populist movement, many of his Republican critics have joined an elitist one. Deriding Trump is an act of class solidarity, visible evidence of refinement and proof that you live nowhere near a Wal-Mart.”
A couple of weeks ago I heard Jeff Flake say something like, “the party has left the principles of free trade and immigration.”
How many out there think people in Arizona generally support open borders? Yet both of the states US senators avidly support open borders and amnesty. And we couldn’t get rid of them. That’s how screwed up the system had become. Big money kept anyone from challenging the incumbents. Regardless of what you think about the President, the patently undemocratic nature of our system had become untenable. At the first little sliver of a chance to bust it up - boom!
This isn’t a US thing. I can name more than a dozen countries that are in the process of throwing off globalism, including Mexico. It’s not a left right thing either, because as this article shows, “conservative” had become pretty meaningless when everybody in DC was a globalist. Populist movements arise, make their mark and stuff gets re-ordered.
Ben Jones: How many out there think people in Arizona generally support open borders? Yet both of the states US senators avidly support open borders and amnesty. And we couldn’t get rid of them.
The primary system is a significant part of the problem IMO.
We had primaries in Maryland recently. I’d never seen the ballot before walking into the voting booth. I’d made a few hour good faith effort to find out about the candidates and the information was so sparse. I didn’t even realize there were entire groups of candidates who were on the ballot. I was disappointed and astounded.
I’m relatively informed and have a high IQ (as wrong as I am about many things I know that’s hard to believe but it’s a fact :-O ). I like listening to news and financial news radio. If I was this poorly informed about the ballot, what chance does the average person have? The only way to have been fully informed would have been to be active in state party politics and have spent hours researching the candidates.
Also, there’s that saying, “The nail that sticks out gets hammered down.” For a person to stand for contested office against an incumbent, it’s going to be quite an intense “vetting” process, which could leave your career in shambles, and possibly with criminal charges (there was a Maryland gubernatorial candidate who had some residential/voting irregularities. She’s a Yale lawyer so was able to navigate it. But there could be continuing blowback from the lifestyle proctosigmoidoscopy). So there are not that many qualified people who’d want to subject themselves to that. On top of that, one needs to have particular wiring, smart, extroverted and highly motivated to lead and make decisions for others.
So, tl;dr: the political parties don’t make it easy to stand for primaries, it takes a rare breed to want to stand for primaries and undergo the intrusive vetting by opposition research, and the media doesn’t disseminate information about the candidates its not interested in, so it’s hard for voters to be informed.
Neuromance,
I truly believe that ranked choice voting would be very helpful to our democratic process. Also, run-off voting that includes top vote getters regardless of political party affiliation would give a better outcome too.
Governmentarian. Vs. Private
That’s the war
That war was lost years ago.
“synchronized global growth”!
“Deficit$ don’t matter”! … “Trade quibble$ war$ are ea$y pea$y”!
It ain’t ju$t dairy good$ folks …
“With collapsed price$ of milk, grain$ and other commoditie$, farmers are losing money no matter how many 16-hour days they put in milking cows, caring for livestock and planting and harvesting crops.
Small dairy farms have been disappearing from the rural landscape for decades, but the problem has been compounded by a sharp decline in farm-milk prices that’s now in its third year and has spread across the country.
Farm cooperatives have urged members to think twice about adding more cows to their operations when the marketplace is awash in milk. Some have even offered incentives for members to quit farming altogether.”
Many dairy operations are drowning in debt; in some cases, they have a half-million dollars in unpaid bills.
Hardin says many dairy farms don’t have much financial staying power left after more than three years of depressed prices. He’s also hearing that rural banks and towns are being hurt by farmers struggling to pay their bills and buy things.
“I had a farmer tell me last week that he’s contemplating bankruptcy, and on top of that, he said his local bank is over-extended on agriculture loans, putting it in hot water with federal regulators. … This has far wider implications than just what’s going on with the dairy farms,” Hardin said.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2018/06/29/wisconsin-dairy-farmers-cheesemakers-risk-retaliatory-tariffs/745123002/
Farm cooperatives have urged members to think twice about adding more cows to their operations when the marketplace is awash in milk.
This is true in Europe too. I met a German dairy farmer in 2016 and learned that he’s losing his shirt too, and that he allows tour groups on his Bavarian farm to raise cash.
Here’s a novel idea: tax soda. Not only does this reduce health care costs and the diabetes epidemic, milk and chocolate milk become that much more competitive which is fine because they actually offer some nutritional value with their consumption. All this while helping farmers.
Obviously, if this has been going on for years and part of the problem is the market in Canada has been unfairly restricted. Trump is fixing the problem, sorry if it may take some time. I remember Obama blaming W seven years into his presidency. Trump said he will improve matters precisely because Obama and W made only bad deals which is precisely why the dairy farmers have faced years of losing money. This hardly started when Trump decided to fight for Americans.
Potomac Falls, VA Housing Prices Crater 28% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/potomac-falls-va/market-trends/
I just got this email:
‘CONSTRUCTION SPENDING REACHES RECORD HIGH WITH 0.4 PERCENT PICKUP IN MAY AS RESIDENTIAL AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT OFFSET DIP IN NONRESIDENTIAL OUTLAYS’
‘Construction spending reached a record level of $1.309 trillion in May as monthly increases in residential and public investment outweighed a decline in private nonresidential outlays, according to an analysis of new government data by the Associated General Contractors of America.’
“Public construction spending has increased strongly for the past nine months and is now at the highest level since 2010, led by a rebound in infrastructure investment,” said Ken Simonson, the association’s chief economist. “Single-family homebuilding is continuing to expand, while multifamily construction has pulled out of a recent slump.”
‘Spending on single-family homebuilding increased 8.2 percent from May 2017 to May 2018, while multifamily construction spending climbed 4.2 percent over that period, Simonson noted.’
Keep em’ coming Ken!
‘We’re at best only halfway through the period of peak deliveries,’ according to RealPage chief economist Greg Willett. ‘Ongoing construction of market-rate product totals just a hair under 400,000 market-rate units in the RealPage count, with annual deliveries set to stay right around 300,000 units through the middle of 2019.’
AMLO wins Mexican presidency with 53% of the vote. The second place went to the conservative PAN candidate got 22% and the the PRI’s candidate got a measly 15%, the rest went to various fringe candidates.
AMLO’s party, MORENA won the most votes but not a majority in the House or Senate. However, by forming a coalition with the other leftist parties (Greens, Workers, etc.) they should be able to form a majority and do as they wish.
My predictions for the next few years.
1) Government largess. mx.gov will go on a hiring spree, plus some free cheese for the masses.
2) More taxes. Expect VAT to increase, from 16% to 20% or more. Remember that the middle class pays the bulk of VAT collected.
3) Amnesty for narcs. AMLO will look the other way as long as violence drops. He claims that Mexico doesn’t have a consumption problem (riiiight), so who cares what the narcs produce since it all goes to the US. As long as they play nice and stop murdering people and make their thugs behave, it’s all good. Note that this was the status quo before the PAN started its war on drugs in 2000 under Vicente Fox.
4) Increase the minimum wage. It will be interesting to see what effect this has on jobs. I expect many will disappear and move to lower wage countries.
5) Business nationalizations. This won’t happen right away, but once AMLO runs out of other people’s money to spend his hand will be forced for political reasons, as multinationals are a convenient scapegoat.
6) Printing money to pay the bills, followed by strong inflation.
We need to send troops into Mexico to start killing the narcos. It’s time.
Uh, we’ve been doing that. For years. The problem is that they’ve adapted to small cell-style operations, making them harder to track and kill.
Shrink the market and they will kill each other fighting over share
Or we could do what Rodrigo Duterte “Dirty Harry” of the Philippines is doing by killing the drug users, not that I think this is very effective. You can go after supply (drug cartels) or demand (drug users). Another idea is that you can just keep things illegal, but have the state supply those already addicted for free, thus removing the profit incentive while preventing drug crime.
have the state supply those already addicted for free
I agree with this idea.
The war on drugs runs on this antiquated idea that if we only dried up the supply, then addicts would suddenly buck up and go cold turkey and break the addiction by sheer force of will. Doesn’t work, especially not for today’s drugs, which are stronger than anything from the 1960s.
If the state buys the drugs and invites addicts to a safe-injection/addiction center, that would prevent most of the crime and clean up most of the streets. Saved money could be spent on treatment, research, and on keeping fentanyl out of the product.
Exactly. You see the vision. This only works though once people understand addiction as a disease and not a moral failing.
Premex will be back
In the 80 inflation was posted daily
1980s
Sounds like any other country.
Kings Beach, CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/kings-beach-ca/market-trends/
‘The Oklahoma project and another municipal-bond financed complex at Texas A&M, which had to slash rents to fill beds, underscore the risk to investors of overbuilding luxury accommodations as students become more cost-conscious.’
The luxury thing was created by the industry to get financing and give excuses to govt/media types. These students were never “demanding” luxury any more than senior housing or urban apartments.
‘While many universities have tapped outsiders to finance and build dorms to conserve money for academics, the University of Oklahoma project shows that developers will turn to the universities for assistance if projects falter.’
Falter, oh wow, that’s interesting on never lived in new apartments. So why would the university put up money? The idea of towering husks of abandoned buildings on campus perhaps?
Pretty soon students will be required to live on campus for 3 or 4 years.
And those schools will face shrinking enrollments compared to others which offer the flexibility to take online coursework.
‘There’s evidence a lot of people may be looking beyond Boston for a more affordable life. ‘We have actually been losing population to other states and the only way we’ve been able to keep jobs filled in recent years is from foreign immigration’
And then:
‘This summer alone more than two thousand new apartments will become available in and around Boston. That’s on top of more than 22-thousand apartment units built in the last three years.’
‘With land at a premium, almost all the new apartment buildings built near Boston are high-end with amenities like pools, roof-decks and concierge services. A $2500-a month- studio may be out of reach for many renters, but …’
So how are the foreigners able to pay for luxury when locals can’t?
‘there’s an expectation that increased supply will ease what’s been a steady hike in rents’
Look WGBH, apartments were being cancelled in Boston a long time ago because the guys were worried about oversupply. Oh well, you’ll end up doing the old “shortage, shortage, GLUT!” thing like everyone else.
Yep, I live in the South side of Boston Harbor. Two new multi-hundred unit complexes going up within a half mile of me. It will roughly double the number of apartments in this area. Many more in the area.
The competition against the older dumps is going to be fierce. My lease is up in February, and Im going to have some fun negotiating on price and amenities.
“Ex-Realtor Pleads Guilty To Mortgage Fraud”
http://www.southernminn.com/lonsdale_area_news_review/news/article_234cac9b-c713-5478-96e9-d1278f07f095.html
Amid trucker shortage, Trump team pilots program to drop driving age requirement to 18
The truck driver shortage is expected to hit 63,000 this year, according to the American Trucking Associations
https://www.tampabay.com/news/business/Amid-trucker-shortage-Trump-team-pilots-program-to-drop-driving-age-requirement-to-18_169667044
Next, bring on the truckers from turd world.
Harpers linked from Drudge:
“The new rich infesting the city, by contrast, are barely here. They keep a low profile, often for good reason, and rarely stick around. They manufacture nothing and run nothing, for the most part, but live off fortunes either made by or purloined from other people—sometimes from entire nations. The New Yorker noted in 2016 that there is now a huge swath of Midtown Manhattan, from Fifth Avenue to Park Avenue, from 49th Street to 70th Street, where almost one apartment in three sits empty for at least ten months a year. New York today is not at home. Instead, it has joined London and Hong Kong as one of the most desirable cities in the world for “land banking,” where wealthy individuals from all over the planet scoop up prime real estate to hold as an investment, a pied-à-terre, a bolt-hole, a strongbox.”
https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrification/
The New Yorker noted in 2016 that there is now a huge swath of Midtown Manhattan, from Fifth Avenue to Park Avenue, from 49th Street to 70th Street, where almost one apartment in three sits empty for at least ten months a year.
Every state, every city & every town. This game has been played again and again since 2009 for the greater good.
“the greater good…”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUpbOliTHJY
Everglades City, FL Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/everglades-city-fl/market-trends/
Oscar Peterson - Boogie Blues Etude
Ronnie Scott’s Club in 1974 - Oscar Peterson-piano, Niels Pedersen-bass, Barney Kessel-guitar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdd5pn1xs7M
The #WalkAway Movement Is Huge! The Real Walk Away Story Being Underreported.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_CEtAcJosg
Maxine ain’t gonna like that.