Sellers Seemed Almost As Anxious As Buyers
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Despite a drop in housing prices, supply and demand continue to make Fall Church the most expensive location in the region in multiple metrics. According to May 2018 data provided by ShowingTime based on listing activity, the median City of Falls Church sales prices was $619,000 for this May, a drop of $210,000 when compared to May 2017, and a decline of almost $100,000 in the median price year-to-date change from $747,500 to $649,700. The Falls Church housing inventory rose by almost 26 percent from last May to this May. Louise Molton is the principal broker at Re/Max in Falls Church and she thinks prices do not discourage buyers as much as multiple offers on the properties they want do. ‘There is only one winner, no one gets a trophy if they come in second,’ she wrote in an email.”
“‘On the market today, and gone tomorrow’: that was the overall housing market trend across North Texas. Last year, listing prices continued to skyrocket and sellers in Collin County were making a killing. A new report revealed, in some cities, home prices may have flat lined.”
“‘This is especially true if a city has experienced fast and extreme growth, like Frisco. Home listing prices have plateaued for homes $400,000 and above. These homes are sitting on the market a little bit longer, and I’m even seeing some sellers negotiating closing cost for the first time in a long time,’ said said Rodney Anderson with Supreme Lending. ‘Some sellers are getting a little bit anxious, but no one is losing. I think that people will finally get an idea that some deals are being made for the first time in a long time.’”
“For the first time in a decade, the number of homes for sale in the Seattle area is finally starting to rise — and in a big way — as the rapid-fire market that has led to extreme bidding wars and lighting-fast sales slows a bit. The total number of single-family homes on the market jumped an eye-popping 43 percent in June from a year ago across King County, the biggest increase since the housing bubble and burst a decade ago. Condo inventory rocketed up 73 percent.”
“Interestingly, the reason is that homes already on the market are sitting unsold for longer, as opposed to a flood of brand-new listings, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. This is supposed to be the hottest time of year for the market — it’s the first time prices cooled from May to June since before the recession. ‘Now there are homes that are available that they don’t have to get into a bidding war to get,’ said Sabrina Booth, a Windermere broker in Seattle.”
“When the owner of Richard Nixon’s former beachfront estate in San Clemente, California, listed the 15,000-square-foot home three years ago for $75 million, you may have been tempted. Now, with the historic property back on the market for $63.5 million, you can hardly say no. Yet that’s just what buyers are saying to extravagant real estate listings from the sunny sands out west, where a residence owned by Warren Buffett has been on sale for more than a year, to the austere brownstones of Manhattan and the opulent hedges of Greenwich, Connecticut.”
“In Orange County, homes listed for more than $1.25 million account for about a third of all inventory but only 14 percent of demand, according to market-data provider Reports on Housing. Many properties are expected to sit for months — in some cases, for more than a year — before going into escrow for a sale. Deepening the doldrums of the region’s luxury sector are recent increases in interest rates and fears about further tightening by the Federal Reserve, said Bill Cote, a Newport Beach agent with Coldwell Banker. ‘All that’s going to do is stymie the market a little bit more,’ he said. ‘For the last few years, it’s all been milk and honey.’”
“As the traditionally busy spring shopping season drew to a close, a decided market shift was underway: Sellers seemed almost as anxious as buyers. As of June 28, homeowners in the four-county region covered by the Southern California News Group added 9,334 homes to the market so far this year vs. 2017’s 2,939 – a huge 218 percent jump. Yes, the rate of listing homes for sale has tripled! Steve Thomas of ReportsOnHousing writes, ‘Article after article details the continued lack of supply, hot demand, and years of nonstop appreciation. How in the world can any local market be a buyer’s market? Technically, luxury housing favors buyers and it is anything but hot.’”
“In Chicago and the suburbs, spring and summer is prime time for real estate, with the first half of the year the busiest season for homes sales. Here in the near west suburbs, inventory is up and sale prices are down. For John Lawrence, owner of Weichert Realtors Nickels Group, the typically hot spring and early summer selling season had a different feel this year. ‘In the spring when $300,000 to $500,000 homes in Oak Park are flying off the shelves with multiple offers, we feel like the market is good. That didn’t happen this year,’ Lawrence said. ‘The market has a very uneasy feel, and a lot of people were saying the market was way down, but the data doesn’t back it up.’”
“‘Anecdotally, there is the tax situation,’ Lawrence said. ‘We’ve always said, ‘What is the tipping point?’ I think we’ve reached it.’ Steve Scheuring of Baird and Warner agrees. ‘We used to have buyers who would come and look at a $500,000 house with $8,000 to $10,000 in taxes,’ Scheuring said. ‘The taxes were high, but considering Chicago Public Schools and private school tuition, they were cool with that. Now, with that same house having taxes of $15,000-$16,000, the buyer is no longer cool with that. We’ve reached a saturation point.’”
“Those individuals in the market for a new or existing home in Mississippi’s fastest-growing county have a wide inventory from which to choose, according to Tracy Kirkley, broker with Crye-Leike Realtors in Olive Branch. The latest information from the Northwest Mississippi Association of Realtors shows that in Olive Branch, there is a 17.6 month supply for homes costing $400,000 and up. The inventory for the DeSoto County seat of Hernando is similar, according to Kirkley. Homes priced at $400,000 and up enjoy a 38-month supply and those homes on the upper price range of $300,000 to $400,000 have a 9.9 month supply.”
“Chief executive officer Lesley Nalley updated the Hot Springs Village Property Owners’ Association board of directors on the Comprehensive Master Plan phase 1 implementation plan at the board’s June meeting. Nalley said 80 percent of the Village is platted for single-family homes, although that segment currently represents only 30 percent of market demand. ‘Targeting key areas for suspension reduces the massive oversupply of those lots,’ she said.”
“The most expensive home in Cincinnati has been sold for $5 million – a whopping 38 percent discount from its listing price of $8 million just two years ago. The 27,000-square-foot French chateau on more than five acres of land at 9005 Camargo Road in Indian Hill had been reduced to $7.5 million at the beginning of the year. But as the Enquirer reported in April, the market for Cincinnati homes listed for $1 million and up is soft.”
“‘There just aren’t a whole lot of buyers capable of buying those homes,’ Mark McGrath, a Realtor with Home Information Network in Silverton, said at the time. ‘It is somewhat of a buyers’ market right now.”’
“Real estate broker Luis Eduardo Rodriguez is accused of funneling drug money through the Las Vegas real estate market and dummy corporations on behalf of an international narcotics and money laundering ring. Rodriguez faces charges for his role in laundering hundreds of thousands of dollars in drug money through Las Vegas real estate and multiple Nevada shell corporations with the intent on sending the profits to drug traffickers and money launderers in Mexico.”
“A woman accused of running a real estate fraud scheme is in custody after leaving South Carolina while her federal case is pending, according to court documents. Dana Roush was arrested Monday. She and Michael Roush are charged with fraud conspiracy and failing to maintain payments on a federally insured mortgage through their Greenville-based investment company. They are accused of operating the now-defunct Kingdom Connected Investments LLC to defraud dozens of home buyers and sellers. Part of the scheme involved falsely leading homebuyers into fake rent-to-own agreements in areas throughout the Carolinas.”
“Homebuyer remorse is on the rise, according to the latest ValueInsured Modern Homebuyer Survey. In a market driven by low inventory and heavy competition that has steadily escalated home prices for a few years now, buyers are increasingly regretting how much they’ve paid for their new homes. ‘Home payments in some areas are swallowing up 45 percent of local median income,’ ValueInsured wrote. In these areas, ‘expectation of buyer’s remorse is high.’”
“According to the findings, two-thirds of homebuyers and almost 70 percent of homeowners expect to have buyer’s remorse within a year. A quarter of those said they expect to have the same level of remorse reported by buyers just prior to the crash in 2008. Between 55 and 60 percent of buyers and owners said people who buy in their neighborhood now are overpaying; even more said that if they were to buy a home now, they would be buying high.”
“Homeowners in California and Texas–’two of the most overheated housing states’–are the most pessimistic about the sustainability of home prices, according to ValueInsured. Eighty percent of owners in these two states (vs. 71 percent nationally) believe a housing correction will happen within two years. Among potential buyers, the sentiment is only slightly less pessimistic. Sixty-five percent of buyers said a housing correction will happen within the next two years. (71 percent homeowners vs. 65 percent non-homeowners).”
“‘In Texas, 44 percent of all existing homeowners believe a housing correction is already underway in their area,’ ValueInsured said. This, the report stated, ‘reaffirms the astute sensibility of homeowners who seem to have foreshadowed the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index report released this week showing Dallas-area home prices growing at the slowest pace in five years.’”
No room for articles outside the US. I could be putting up half a dozen posts a day right now.
‘In Orange County, homes listed for more than $1.25 million account for about a third of all inventory but only 14 percent of demand’
Remember the article that said, “look at all these Orange Country shacks that have become luxury” meaning the price had gone over $1 million or so. It said around one third of OC shacks were in that catagory. Good luck with the bust, hope you saved some of that milk and honey (but I know you didn’t).
The OC register article just got me more excited than I’ve been in a while.
T M I . . . .
‘The total number of single-family homes on the market jumped an eye-popping 43 percent in June from a year ago across King County, the biggest increase since the housing bubble and burst a decade ago. Condo inventory rocketed up 73 percent.’
Did they just build these shacks and airboxes? Why no. Where of where did they come from? You said there was a shortage and voom! Out of nowhere comes a “flood” of supply!
‘Interestingly, the reason is that homes already on the market are sitting unsold for longer, as opposed to a flood of brand-new listings, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. This is supposed to be the hottest time of year for the market — it’s the first time prices cooled from May to June since before the recession. ‘Now there are homes that are available that they don’t have to get into a bidding war to get’
Note to Sabrina: get a jump on the competition and start studying to be a foreclosure specialist. You’ll thank me later.
Been meaning to post over the last few days but too buys enjoying the 75 degree weather.
The word is most definitely “getting out” about the local Seattle market cooling off via other channels (Seattle times, reddit, nextdoor, realtors, etc), and it’s much more than the usual “oh, maybe we are in a bubble?” talk
One of the ways these things turn is that everyone starts to think that it is turning - a self fulfilling prophecy sort of thing.
Jane & Joe buyer who have been frustrated at losing out time and again over the last year take note that everyone is starting to talk about it, and decide that while they still buying, they aren’t going to play the escalation clause game, and won’t bother if they can’t have it properly inspected. John & Linda do the same, and so on, and suddenly the realtor who had a bidding war on a similar house 6 months ago sees the usual frenzy just went *poof* . And the feedback loop strengthens…
‘everyone starts to think that it is turning’
It’s always some variation of that. Usually just after peak insanity. It’s my favorite bubble phase: like the old slapstick comedies. Unfortunately what is coming won’t be so much fun, but I’ve learned to enjoy moments when I can.
It kinda reminds me of the the movie “The Bunker” where AH demands there is no talk of defeat or of the realities going on in the war.
Only happy talk is allowed. Because if no one mentions reality - it doesn’t exist!
That the thing about feedback loops - they can get strong really, really quickly.
I would expect anyone still waiting on the fence for the ‘best time to sell’ is going to strongly consider listing their house now ‘before things turn’ … and we’ll see continued inventory gains… which will only embolden the buyers to not settle or overbid… which …
Ben, did you stock up on Popcorn?
“Unfortunately what is coming won’t be so much fun,…”
Can’t say you didn’t try to warn the frenzied dancers…
our condo building (2nd Ave Seattle) has 4 open houses this weekend. I almost want to hang out in the building lobby to see who the prospective owners are.
One (albeit great) unit — 1480 sq feet, 2 bedroom + den + 2 bath with great views is selling for $1.45M. However with a 20% down total payment is $8000/month (including $1070 HOA + $850 property tax).
I just dont get it - a couple has to be bringing in north of 250K/year. Normally they should be at the point that they are buying a house and having kids
I’ve worked with (half of) such couples downtown - dual income, late 20s tech -job couples. They would be candidates, but as soon as the babies hit, they all want someplace with a yard and safety from homeless.
Last weekend I met a young couple who are renting a house. They want to buy the house they are renting. LL bought the house in 2015, and LL is open to the idea to selling to the couple. The couple wants to use the “desperation” argument: the LL should consider selling to them now, before prices drop any more. Oh, and it would save realtor fees.
I told the couple to focus on the realtor fees aspect. If they try the desperation angle, the LL might get po’d.
The real question is: If the prospective buyers know that prices are dropping, why in Hades would they want to buy?
Probably because of the location. It’s very close to transit, which is at a premium in this area. Prices might drop overall, but there isn’t much selection for SFHs in a prime locations. Also this might be the only way they can buy without competing with all-cash offers. It’s their decision.
Obviously the young couple is not thinking rationally, or else they would save themselves $100Ks (aka many years of hard labor in the workplace) by timing their purchase for the trough of the next recession, when nobody is buying and prices are 20% or more below current levels.
“Prices might drop overall, but there isn’t much selection for SFHs in a prime locations.”
Little known economic fact:
Market gluts, price declines, and improved selection go hand in hand.
That’s what we did.
LL used to work for Windermere and knew the score and mentioned lopping off the commissions in the first conversation.
Beyond that, we knew every flaw in the place since we had been living there. Deduct for all the work likely needed in the next 5 years (new deck top, some drainage work ) and then for all the little repairs, prep, staging and general hassle of getting it on the market. A reasonable “you would spend $X getting it ready to sell, we’ll take it as-is after deducting $X and you save the hassle”
North Dallas, TX Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Wholesale Exit From Housing Accelerates
https://www.zillow.com/north-dallas-dallas-tx/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Addison, TX Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/addison-tx/market-trends/
‘‘On the market today, and gone tomorrow’: that was the overall housing market trend across North Texas. Last year, listing prices continued to skyrocket and sellers in Collin County were making a killing. A new report revealed, in some cities, home prices may have flat lined.’
‘This is especially true if a city has experienced fast and extreme growth, like Frisco. Home listing prices have plateaued for homes $400,000 and above. These homes are sitting on the market a little bit longer, and I’m even seeing some sellers negotiating closing cost for the first time in a long time,’ said said Rodney Anderson with Supreme Lending. ‘Some sellers are getting a little bit anxious, but no one is losing’
No they’re fooked Rodney, paying back those loans you won for them. There aren’t many people in Frisco who can pay back $400k. As you know.
Just where were the appraisers when “fast and extreme growth” was happening out in these cow pastures?
There’s enough who could swing the mortgage for P&I at the old rates - I have friends who run tech companies based in Frisco - but for people not familiar, it’s the taxes and insurance that can kill you - about 4% ( ~3%+ property taxes on ‘full value’ and another 1% for insurance thanks to hail storms and other fun weather). That TI portion of PITI is bigger there than in most of the country.
Now stack on depreciation at $3/sqft/yr and you’ve got yourself another default.
…. yet they could have rented it for half that monthly amount.
I don’t think you know how depreciation works, my friend.
Housing
Naples, FL Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/naples-fl/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Are you talking about Frisco, Texas? Or San Francisco, CA (sometimes referred to as “Frisco”)?
Frisco Texas.
Used to live in the area.
The thought of paying 30K+ per year on property taxes on a McMansion makes me break out in hives
RE: Frisco, Plano, etc in the DFW subs. the work transfer effect is happening over the last 2 years.
Between Toyota (from Torrence CA), Chase (from NJ and Columbus OH), Liberty Mutual from the NY/Conn suburbs, and many others.
There is a ton of equity locusts. I have a work contact that was so excited to buy a 5000 sq ft house. He literally has a big home office and a (video)game tv room side by side on one side of the house that he only (not his wife or 2 kids) use.
Perhaps they need it all - but people sometimes like to live like Royalty,
“…people sometimes like to live like Royalty…”
Royalty doesn’t work an 8 to 5 job.
I wonder if FedGov is going to help out the Rust Belt states with their ailing public pensions. Rust Belt states spent all the money educating the kids but the jobs went south and West. And instead of moving back home and paying taxes, the kids followed the jobs south.
Rust Belt states could argue that they are “owed” since they effectively subsidized the low-tax state workforce, and it’s FedGov’s job to redistribute.
Rust Belt states could argue that they are “owed” since they effectively subsidized the low-tax state workforce, and it’s FedGov’s job to redistribute.
That might work if Sen Running Deer is elected Prez and and the Dems recapture both the House and the Senate, otherwise fuggedaboudit.
b,
I had a 4500 sq ft place out on Lake Ray Hubbard. 14 rooms for 4 people (2 under 5) and literally there were some rooms I would go a month without entering.
Our current place is smaller though not that small, but much better suited in design - no unused rooms. Prior to this house, we were renting an 1800 sq/ft beautiful mid-century, but it was a little too small. (Wife and I both work from home). Now we’ve erred just slighter bigger than perfect.
One more thing about those oversized houses in North Texas - bloody expensive to heat and cool (and the preferred designs are terrible for thermal efficiency ). I averaged $600+ a month (more than 10 years ago) on that place for electric+gas, and that was with 4 brand new 18+ SEER A/C units and full zoning.
The house in Seattle? No A/C except a couple portable units we pull out for about a week a year and average Electric+gas bill is $120.
You can have the most efficient ac in the world but with crappy windows and poor insulation it doesn’t matter. Also shady trees around the house, especially on the south side of the home make a yuuuuge difference.
You can have the most efficient ac in the world but with crappy windows and poor insulation it doesn’t matter. Also shady trees around the house, especially on the south side of the home make a yuuuuge difference.
Being in North Texas, where it’s over 100 degrees (and humid) regularly for 6+ months at time also makes a big difference. My house there was well insulated, and had good windows (I personally replaced some), but to keep it comfortable, (especially with a baby in the house), you had to pretty much run the AC 24/7. And the winters, though briefer, were just as bad from the heating side. We had 2 huge oak trees that gave the house a bit of shade, but most trees in the DFW area are what other people would call “shrubs”.
4500 sq ft is a lot of house. They like ‘em big in DFW (there certainly is the status aspect), but the upkeep is a constant drain.
“Being in North Texas, where it’s over 100 degrees (and humid) regularly for 6+ months at time also makes a big difference.”
I was a grunt in the deep south many years ago, and when the wet bulb temp was up in the 80’s this California kid was really sweating.
Kenmore, WA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Seattle Area Housing Inventory Skyrockets
https://www.movoto.com/kenmore-wa/market-trends/
Realtors are liars.
Q: What do you call an industry that needs massive federal subsidies and still doesn’t break even?
A: An obama legacy
+++++
The Incredible Scam of Rooftop Solar Power
American Thinker | 07/06/2018 | Norman Rogers
A large-scale natural gas-generating plant can supply electricity for around 6 cents per kilowatt-hour. Rooftop solar electricity costs, without subsidies, around 30 cents per kilowatt-hour, or five times as much. Average retail rates for electricity in most places are between 8 cents and 16 cents per kilowatt-hour.
But where does the other 28 cents come from? Who pays for that? Part is paid for by the federal 30% subsidy for solar energy construction cost. That takes care of about nine cents per kilowatt-hour. That leaves the homeowner with electricity costing him 21 cents per kilowatt-hour. The cost comes from his monthly payments on the loan to build the solar system divided by the number of kilowatt-hours generated that month. If he pays cash for the solar system, then the monthly cost is his lost investment return on the cash he paid. If he lives in a jurisdiction where electricity costs 11 cents, then he is losing 10 cents for each kilowatt-hour generated (21 cents minus 11 cents).
From the standpoint of society, rooftop solar substitutes 30-cent electricity in order to save two cents. If the homeowner is at least breaking even, as he usually is, he hasn’t lost anything due to the substitution. The money to pay for the 30-cent electricity comes from the taxpayer-provided subsidy and revenue that is no longer paid to the power company. Since the power company is guaranteed a rate of return, or at least has to break even, rates have to be raised enough to pay for the overpriced rooftop electricity. The burden falls on society to pay for the scheme. The purveyors of rooftop solar, crackpot environmentalists and rooftop solar-owners, are happy. Everyone else is screwed.
I personally would love a rooftop solar car since most of us never use the roof of the car except the few times i would put one of those Sears rooftop carriers on it.
AZ deserts the south would probably work almost year round. So would it generate enough electricity to run a small 4 cyl car?
Not even close.
But it could run a fan to keep your car cooler and trickle charge the battery
Well if a car was sitting in sunlight all day would it charge up the batteries and not have to be plugged in ?
Well if a car was sitting in sunlight all day would it charge up the batteries and not have to be plugged in ?
Using only roof top solar panel, no.
It would, but might take a year to charge.
I’m in CA, my monthly PG&E bill was averaging $550/month for gas/electricity. I paid $35,000 for my solar panels, but I was able to pay cash (also received the 30% rebate). Now my monthly bills are $60-80, after a full year on solar,I was mailed a check from PG&E for $200.On top of that, I also drive a Chevy Volt, and I average 4-5 tanks of gas per year, since my commute is local- YES PER YEAR!
For me it was easy math to go solar, not sure about the numbers referenced above, but for me it was costing me $6000/year and as it stands, my break even is about at 6 years. After that, my electricity is free!
‘my monthly PG&E bill was averaging $550/month for gas/electricity’
I’ve lived in a lot of different climates and my bills were never that high.
I think he was mining bitcoins.
And still a ROI of 6 years…
And doesn’t considered the finite life of solar panels, their decreasing efficiency and removal/disposal costs…
“doesn’t considered the finite life of solar panels”
Correct. Solar only works using DonkeyMath.
I occasionally see how much people pay for monthly utilities and I’m telling you, people tend to be really wasteful or lazy because $400 - $600 / month isn’t uncommon at all. Granted, it is usually for a household with 3000 sq ft etc. But this is in North Texas where we’re deregulated. I just signed up for a new plan where anything from 0 to 1000 kwh (about 9 months of the year for me) is $33 / month. 1400 kwh will be about $140.
SDGE and PGE are like the mafia from what I remember. They’ll make you an offer you can’t refuse, unless of course you have something like solar.
My friend in Blythe, CA has showed me his electric bills. They’re insane. So yes, I believe Bay Area Native.
I’ve lived in a lot of different climates and my bills were never that high.
My Bay Aryan colleagues tell me that if they run the A/C they spend $500 a month. Many don’t run the A/C very often because of that.
“I paid $35,000 for my solar panels…”
LMFAO. Mmmmkaayyyyyy….
When we were in the San Luis Obispo area, early 90’s, we paid over $200/mo for two people in a 2br/1ba stucco on slab of roughly 1,000-sqft, and we were both gone during working hours.
Clownifornia electric rates are otherworldly.
SDG&E used to promote itself as “San Diego own and operated.”
I remember bumper stickers that said “Welcome to San Diego, owned and operated by SDG&E”
“After that, my electricity is free!”
How much of your electricity is covered by government handouts?
How much of your electricity is covered by government handouts?
I don’t make the rules, I just play by the rules. YES, for those who commented, my homes is around 3,000 square feet. We have 3 kids / 5 bed 3 bath home. Trust me, when I saw my PG&E bill the first few months I almost shit my pants. Also, the degeredation of the panels are 1% every year. The panels also come with a 20 year full warranty.
“Trust me, when I saw my PG&E bill the first few months I almost shit my pants.”
A coworker bought a older 70’s house on a golf course, a big place with lots of single pane glass facing the green. Come winter time the utility bill about felled him right there!
“The panels also come with a 20 year full warranty.”
Prorated. After 15 years they’re dead. So you paid 2x for electric for 15 years.
Priceless
Solar panels are worth it if you get frequent power outages. You could run, say, two outlets with battery backup. One for a freezer and another for a microwave and charging the computer. You could install a battery backup too. Other than that, solar is just not worth it.
Rising interest rates + DJT New Tax Laws + QE Unwind = The Tipping Point (TPT)
Paying all that money in property taxes and still having to send your kids to a private school…hope and change!
++++
“‘Anecdotally, there is the tax situation,’ Lawrence said. ‘We’ve always said, ‘What is the tipping point?’ I think we’ve reached it.’ Steve Scheuring of Baird and Warner agrees. ‘We used to have buyers who would come and look at a $500,000 house with $8,000 to $10,000 in taxes,’ Scheuring said. ‘The taxes were high, but considering Chicago Public Schools and private school tuition, they were cool with that. Now, with that same house having taxes of $15,000-$16,000, the buyer is no longer cool with that. We’ve reached a saturation point.’”
So does your Tipping Point - QE Unwind = Rising interest rates + DJT New Tax Laws then?
Try not to take both those bananas at once.
Another day another MAGA attack.
Boynton Beach homeowner says he was attacked over President Trump flag in yard
Miranda Christian
5:25 PM, Jul 5, 2018
6 hours ago
https://www.wptv.com/news/region-s-palm-beach-county/boynton-beach/boynton-beach-homeowner-says-he-was-attacked-over-trump-flag-in-yard
Thanks, Maxine.
“Thanks, Maxine.”
Did you thank Maxine for this one?
https://www.breitbart.com/texas/2018/07/05/watch-texas-mom-claims-son-attacked-at-whataburger-for-maga-hat/
Irvine, CA 92618 Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Housing Bust Ravages Orange County CA
https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca-92618/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
‘the median City of Falls Church sales prices was $619,000 for this May, a drop of $210,000 when compared to May 2017, and a decline of almost $100,000 in the median price year-to-date change from $747,500 to $649,700. The Falls Church housing inventory rose by almost 26 percent from last May to this May.’
‘There is only one winner, no one gets a trophy if they come in second’
That’s the stuff Louise, we need people to catch the falling knives.
‘There is only one winner,”
And he’s living in empty skulls….rent free.
A $210K drop in sales price from a median $829k is about a 25% drop (May yoy).
There could be statistical explanations (like a $100 million house sold in May 2017 skewing the data)
But - a 25% drop is usually called a crash…
Dang…I missed that in my post below.
Doesn’t it seem odd to NOT put price declines into percentage terms when price increases are ALWAYS put into percentage terms? Perhaps the used home sellers recognize the confusing asymmetry between percentage gains and percentage losses. For instance, a 25% percentage loss is sufficient to completely wipe out a 33% percentage gain:
(100% + 33%) * (100% - 25%) = 100%.
“recognize the confu$ing a$ymmetry between percentage gain$ and percentage lo$$es.”
Don’t cry for me Crimea!
Ru$$ia = gain$
Ukraine = lo$$es
Eye see yer point Professor.
‘Real estate broker Luis Eduardo Rodriguez is accused of funneling drug money through the Las Vegas real estate market and dummy corporations on behalf of an international narcotics and money laundering ring. Rodriguez faces charges for his role in laundering hundreds of thousands of dollars in drug money through Las Vegas real estate and multiple Nevada shell corporations with the intent on sending the profits to drug traffickers and money launderers in Mexico’
Gosh, I hope none of the comps were artificially inflated by these drug cartels! The real estate industry in Las Vegas would never let that happen, would they?
Chosen at random:
417 Dawkins Farm Dr, Olive Branch, MS 38654
5 beds 4 baths 5,200 sqft
For Sale
$499,000
Price cut: -$16,000 (7/5)
Price History
Date Event Price $/sqft
07/05/18 Price change $499,000-3.1% $95
06/13/18 Price change $515,000-1.9% $99 .
05/16/18 Listed for sale $525,000 $100
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4417-Dawkins-Farm-Dr-Olive-Branch-MS-38654/110582038_zpid/
I was going to comment that Olive Branch, MS is a random choice in general! But then I found this link:
http://time.com/money/collection/best-places-to-live-2017/4924111/olive-branch-mississippi/
“Indeed, families love Olive Branch for its good schools, safe streets, and family-friendly activities, not to mention its affordability—the median home price is $185,092, and annual property taxes average $956 a year. ” An infographic in the links states the Olive Branch. median income is approximately $63k.
I imagine $185k buys a nice home in Olive Branch. $499k sounds like it’s over the top for the Memphis metro area.
Those $500K houses are cookie-cutter McMansions.
McMansions are so 2005.
Hear that hush? Allen & Co. returns to Sun Valley
Money, moguls and #MeToo converge for investment bank’s annual conference
Mark Dee 6 hrs ago
Private jets double-parked at Friedman Memorial Airport. Nondisclosure agreements, fresh off the press. You won’t see any formal signs for Allen & Co.’s annual media, business and technology conference, but entering its 36th iteration at Sun Valley Resort, locals know where to look.
The conference, like the company itself, is secretive. Allen & Co., a private Fifth Avenue investment bank, doesn’t have a website. It counts George Tenet, the former head of the CIA, among its employees. Organizers and staff are contractually bound to silence. The schedule, as always, stays under lock and key. Presentations and panels cover a wide range of topics, but have focused on politics and on the technology, media and telecommunications sector—the bank’s specialty.
https://www.mtexpress.com/news/sun_valley/hear-that-hush-allen-co-returns-to-sun-valley/article_f9c68760-80a1-11e8-9d05-db1273719e2f.html
George Tenet - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Tenet
Jump to Iraq WMD controversy - Tenet responded by saying “We’ve never done a … Congress voted to support the Iraq war based on the NIE Tenet …
Deputy: John A. Gordon; John E. McLaughlin
Spouse(s): Stephanie Glakas
Education: State University of New York, Cortl…
Here’s why ex- CIA Director Tenet said Iraq would be a ’slam dunk …
https://www.washingtonpost.com/…/heres-why-ex-cia-director-tenet-said-iraq-would-...
May 5, 2015 - Former CIA director George Tenet will likely never live down having called … Morell, in his book, “The Great War of Our Time,” defends Tenet.
George Tenet, in book, denounces Cheney over Iraq - The New York …
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/27/world/americas/27iht-tenet.1.5468521.html
Apr 27, 2007 - “I remember watching and thinking, ‘As if you needed me to say ’slam dunk’ to convince you to go to war with Iraq,’ ” Tenet writes. As violence in …
Ex-C.I.A. Chief, in Book, Assails Cheney on Iraq - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/27/washington/27intel.html
Apr 27, 2007 - George J. Tenet said that the vice president and others pushed the … the country to war in Iraq without ever conducting a “serious debate” …
Tenet Retraces the Path to War in Iraq : NPR
https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9955576
May 2, 2007 - In his new book, former CIA director George Tenet offers his version of Bush administration conversations that preceded the war in Iraq.
What You Won’t Find in the Ex-CIA Chief’s Book: George Tenet …
http://www.spiegel.de › English Site › Under the Scope › Found in Salon.com
May 8, 2007 - George Tenet, former CIA chief, listens during an interview in New York … debated role in allowing flawed intelligence to launch the war in Iraq, …
CNN.com - Woodward: Tenet told Bush WMD case a ’slam dunk’ - Apr …
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/04/18/woodward.book/
Apr 19, 2004 - … invade Iraq, President Bush was told by CIA Director George Tenet there was a. … Says Bush didn’t solicit Rumsfeld, Powell on going to war.
George Tenet: At the center of the storm - CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/george-tenet-at-the-center-of-the-storm/
As director of the CIA, George Tenet has kept America’s most important secrets. And until ….. Tenet told 60 Minutes the war in Iraq is “a national tragedy.” He says …
Ex-CIA chief says “slam dunk” Iraq quote misused - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/…/ex-cia-chief-says-slam-dunk-iraq-quote-misused-idUSN26...
Apr 26, 2007 - Former CIA director George Tenet told CBS Television’s “60 Minutes” that the administration leaked his comment as opposition to the war grew …
No, really, George W. Bush lied about WMDs - Vox
https://www.vox.com/2016/7/9/12123022/george-w-bush-lies-iraq-war
Jul 9, 2016 - But as CIA Director George Tenet noted in early 2004, the CIA had informed … Bush did know whether or not Iraq had a nuclear weapon — and lied … Bush really did lie, and people really did die as a result of the war those …
Ben Jones I know this is like, your blog, but isn’t there some kind of rule against posting that? This isn’t CounterPunch or AntiWar…
I do it all the time.
George Tenet is deep state.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Living_with_War
4. “Shock and Awe”
When Sheldon beckons George Tenet responds
https://imgur.com/a/itZjvYZ
Why. Why did they do it?
‘A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm (commonly known as the “Clean Break” report) is a policy document that was prepared in 1996 by a study group led by Richard Perle for Benjamin Netanyahu, the then Prime Minister of Israel.[1] The report explained a new approach to solving Israel’s security problems in the Middle East with an emphasis on “Western values.” It has since been criticized for advocating an aggressive new policy including the removal of Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq and the containment of Syria by engaging in proxy warfare and highlighting its possession of “weapons of mass destruction”. Certain parts of the policies set forth in the paper were rejected by Netanyahu.[2][3]‘
‘According to the report’s preamble,[1] it was written by the Study Group on a New Israeli Strategy Toward 2000, which was a part of the Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies.
Former United States Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Perle was the “Study Group Leader,” but the final report included ideas from Douglas Feith, James Colbert, Charles Fairbanks, Jr., Jonathan Torop, David Wurmser, Meyrav Wurmser, and IASPS president Robert Loewenberg.[4]‘
‘The content of the report is organized into an introduction followed by six sections. The report interleaves within its main commentary text a series of “key passages of a possible speech: “While there are those who will counsel continuity, Israel has the opportunity to make a clean break; it can forge a peace process and strategy based on an entirely new intellectual foundation, one that restores strategic initiative and provides the nation the room to engage every possible energy on rebuilding Zionism, the starting point of which must be economic reform.[1]”
‘Ian Buruma wrote in August 2003 in The New York Times that:[7] “Douglas Feith and Richard Perle advised Netanyahu, who was prime minister in 1996, to make “a clean break” from the Oslo accords with the Palestinians. They also argued that Israeli security would be served best by regime change in surrounding countries. Despite the current mess in Iraq, this is still a commonplace in Washington. In Paul Wolfowitz’s words, “The road to peace in the Middle East goes through Baghdad.”
‘In 2006, Sidney Blumenthal noted the paper’s relevance to potential Israeli bombing of Syria and Iran, writing that “In order to try to understand the neoconservative road map, senior national security professionals have begun circulating among themselves” the Clean Break “neocon manifesto.”[12] Soon after “Taki” of The American Conservative wrote that: “recently, Netanyahu suggested that President Bush had assured him Iran will be prevented from going nuclear. I take him at his word. Netanyahu seems to be the main mover in America’s official adoption of the 1996 white paper A Clean Break, authored by him and American fellow neocons, which aimed to aggressively remake the strategic environments of Iraq, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. As they say in boxing circles, three down, two to go.[13]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Clean_Break:_A_New_Strategy_for_Securing_the_Realm
The current cost for keeping Iran “sandwiched” is $16-Bil/mo, and it’s the primary reason our infrastructure isn’t being repaired.
Money, moguls and #MeToo
MeToo and moguls ? Bill Cosby ? Are women even invited to this thing? I mean older women with money..
Prices stagnant / falling on mid to upper level, but no relief on the low end of the market.
“In 2011, Dallas had 375 houses for sale under $50,000. What about now?
The numbers have plummeted since then as home price appreciation has squeezed affordable housing stock out of the marketplace.”
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2018/07/03/2011-dallas-375-houses-sale-50000-now
Winter Park, FL Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/winter-park-fl/market-trends/
Will the trade war affect housing prices? Will it effect anything noticeable by common folks?
You think ‘common folk’ will even notice? Most people around the world are checked out and self indulging. Why do you think FAANG is so popular? It’s because most people spend all of their time sharing videos on Facebook on their Apple devices while zoning out to Netflix or buying junk they don’t need on Amazon. It correlates to everything for lazy people.
“… self indulging”
Is there a connections between selfies & self indulging?
The original soyboys, the chinese putting tariffs on soy - hows that gonna work?
Sounds like their version of Krugman, Som Ting Wong is in charge of economic policy. Maybe they can just morph into termites and eat those ghost cities - plenty of fiber.
Or they can take in all those refugees from africa and central america since theyre such great contributors to civilization, lol.
Marketing growth$ oppoortunitie$ for $outh America$ nation$ @ expense of lowe$t commoditie$ price$ U$ farmer$ …
Farm Aid is in Connecticut for 2018 …
Hop on the bus & join Willie for a $mokin’ good time$!
http://www.farmfutures.com/market-news/soybeans-rise-after-tariffs-hit
Higher oil prices mean higher shipping costs too. People have to eat. Brazil impacted more than the U.S. Unlike things like steel where one country can totally displace another, there are limits on how much food can be produced in any country. Brazil already has reached its limit and the continuing destruction of the Amazon forest is not viable. In fact, acreage is rapidly losing fertility. Globalists have used these so called great openings for farm products to rape our industries. Solution for farmers during the trade war is simple, use tariff money to buy up any surplus agricultural goods, until trade war over. As part of any settlement we can make the Chinese buy up the surplus at a profit to the US government. I am sure Trump has already thought of it.
“In fact, acreage is rapidly losing fertility.”
$oil management … + $upplements … They ain’t growin’ U$ corn on 1775 top $oil
Funny you $hould mention$ Africa …
While China $laps tariffs on the U$, it’s also championing free trade$ in Africa
Djibouti, a tiny state in East Africa, opened a Chinese-built International Free Trade Zone on Thursday.
The area enables users to operate without paying several types of tax.
Once complete, the $3.5 billion project will be the largest of its kind in Africa.
“The opening also signifies the latest step in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing’s $cheme to redevelop ancient trading route$ centered on it$elf.
Free trade is a hot topic in Africa. Earlier this month, South Africa, the continent’s most developed economy, signed on to the African Union’s free trade agreement that proposes continent-wide borderless trade. 49 out of the African Union’s 55 members have now committed to the scheme although Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, is yet to do so.”
Justina Crabtree
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/06/china-and-djibouti-open-free-trade-zone-in-africa.html?recirc=taboolainternal
I’m sure those Djiboutians are all lining up to buy 70″ 4K TVs
Oh, & also, your mention$ of Central America$:
Ollie, $ell & $end ‘em $ome more gun$! … (Keep.the.Nation Building Programme$ alive!)
U$ $laps new $anctions on Nicaragua over violence, corruption$
By Laura Koran, CNN
Updated: Thu July 5, 2018
“Today’s actions are in connection with the horrific activities that we’re seeing in Nicaragua,” a senior administration official told reporters on a conference call. “The United States is deeply concerned about the ongoing crisis in Nicaragua and the violence perpetrated by security forces against demonstrators.”
“The Nicaraguan government’s violent response has included beatings of journalists, attacks against local TV and radio stations, and assaults on mothers mourning the deaths of their children,” the official said.
The Chinese are deliberately targeting their tariffs toward Midwest agriculture because that’s where all the Deplorable farmers live. We’re in for an adjustment period. The question is are the Trump voters strong enough to weather the adjustment? Given the prices of milk and cash rents (as Ben has documented), I’m not sure they are.
Knot all farmers is Republican$ … But, ALL farmer$ (who relie$ on loan$ fer their family bidne$$es) … $uffers from ri$ing intere$t rates$, (land$ & equipment$$) … lo$t export market$ oppoortunitie$ … Decrea$ing land & a$$et value$ … & depre$$ed price$ for their commoditie$ …
Yeah, it’$ quite deplorable, eye don’t reckon (imhto) the Chinese pig food import$ are the “root cau$e analysi$” of their precariou$ $it.u.ation$
https://modernfarmer.com/2016/11/5-issues-caused-farmers-vote-trump/
Rf$ … verse$ … Pruitt$ EPA waiver$ was a gift to those zealot$ voter$ … Who$e gonna have complaint$ for a x4 Billion$ U$D gubbermint$ $ubsidy for the $ugar bidne$$?
& the beet$ goe$ on, & the beet$ goe$ on …
Hmm… Who would benefit the most from $120 oil?
“Oil could spike to $120 per barrel or more if the U.S. were able to eliminate all Iranian oil exports, as it has said it would like to do by Nov. 4, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/06/if-us-gets-its-way-with-iran-oil-could-spike-to-120bofa-strategis.html
Nothing would cr8er the economy like $120 per barrel oil.
The U.S. economy has reached a point where higher oil prices are actually beneficial. Not all states and it is hard on the consumer but overall it is beneficial. We saw when oil price crashed, that it did not have a beneficial impact on the U.S. despite all the pundits saying it would. U.S. oil and NG production is even higher now. Now for countries like China and India it is devastating. The higher energy costs offset their labor advantage over us in many industries. China use to be a major oil exporter now it is the world’s largest importer. It needs a massive trade surplus with us in part to pay for its energy imports.
The Economist had a good chart a few months ago showing the phenomenon you are describing. Higher oil prices harm some countries and help others. It looks like oil price at $100 is where there is a net benefit for US GDP:
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/05/26/dear-oil-helps-some-emerging-economies-and-harms-others
Well probably, given that the U.S. is the top oil producing country in the world.
Very interesting link One, I had not seen it or I would of posted. Just by observation of China, India and the U.S I came up with the theory, great to have the theory confirmed.
Obama’s best economic years occurred when oil was above $100. He benefited from the shale oil and gas boom even though he did nothing to promote it, but he was taking credit for increased oil and gas production when he ran for reelection in 2012. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29412
Q: Why did the Realtor cross the road?
A: To lie to a used house buyer on the other side of the road.
…. because realtors are liars.
Wow, this is most alarming USA focused blog post I’ve seen on this blog about the resale market.
The June sales data and July listing data is showing so many markets have turned or seeing rapidly rising inventory - NYC, Austin, Chicago, Seattle, Orange County, Denver.
This is happening with only a slight bump in mortgage rates and with supposedly the best economy in decades. Imagine when mortgage rates go above 5% and the economy slows or goes into recession.
In hindsight, the upcoming housing crash is going to seem so obvious. But the vast majority of people are bought into the “this time it’s different” narrative being sold to us by the NAR.
“the upcoming housing crash”
It arrived 18 months ago.
Realtors lie about this, alot.
“According to May 2018 data provided by ShowingTime based on listing activity, the median City of Falls Church sales prices was $619,000 for this May, a drop of $210,000 when compared to May 2017, and a decline of almost $100,000 in the median price year-to-date”
Arlington, VA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Housing Depreciation Ravages DC/NoVA Metro
https://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/
“According to May 2018 data provided by ShowingTime based on listing activity, the median City of Falls Church sales prices was $619,000 for this May, a drop of $210,000 when compared to May 2017, and a decline of almost $100,000 in the median price year-to-date change from $747,500 to $649,700.”
Reading between the lines:
Maximum median price in early 2017 was $747,500.
Recent median price (May 2018) was $619,000.
Minimum percentage decline in the median since early 2017 is
($619,000/$747,500 - 1) X 100% = -17%.
Translation: OUCH!
An important article …
“Update on the Fed’s QE Unwind”
“With QE, the Fed created money to buy securities and pump up asset prices; now it sheds securities to destroy this money.”
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/06/update-on-the-feds-qe-unwind/
Fasten your seat belts.
“With QE, the Fed created money to buy securities and pump up asset prices; now it sheds securities to destroy this money.”
Indeed, and purchase massive debt too. Note: 17-FEB-2011
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2011/02/17/betting-on-ben
Higher share prices are part of the Fed’s plan. Back in November Mr Bernanke wrote in the Washington Post that “higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.”
The problem was that globalism prevented higher incomes while Bernanke’s Plan increased the day to day cost of living.
“Data Shows Unexpected Increase In Oil Stockpiles, Price Falls”
http://www.themountainmail.com/news/business/article_5e106f48-80ce-11e8-872f-b37148999552.html
Originally asking $18.5 million down to an offer of $4.2 million?
Well that’s less than Fiddy cents on the dollar.
Will 50 Cent Accept $4.2M for His Mansion? He May Have Other Plans
By Clare Trapasso | Jul 3, 2018
Remember that Connecticut mansion rapper and entrepreneur 50 Cent has been trying to unload for more than a decade? Well, the formerly bankrupt star recently scored an offer for the opulent residence from “Million Dollar Listing New York” real estate agent Fredrik Eklund. The offer was televised on the Bravo reality show on Monday.
There’s just one catch.
The all-cash offer, for $4.2 million, is way below the $18.5 million Fiddy had originally asked for the over-the-top 19-bedroom mansion with 19 baths and 16 half-baths when he put it on the market in 2007. He repeatedly slashed the price on the 51,657-square-foot residence in Farmington—all the way down to $4,995,000. So how low will Fiddy, whose birth name is Curtis Jackson, go?
https://www.realtor.com/news/celebrity-real-estate/will-50-cent-accept-4-2-million-lowball-offer-mansion-wont-sell/
What happened to the red hot spring sales season this year? From the Federal Open Market Committee June 12-13 Meeting Minutes:
“Residential investment appeared to be declining further in the second quarter after decreasing in the first quarter. Starts for new single-family homes were unchanged in April from their first-quarter average, but starts of multifamily units declined noticeably. Sales of both new and existing homes decreased in April.“