A Sight Reminiscent Of Years Past Is Once Again Popping Up
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “ATTOM Data Solutions, on Thursday reported foreclosure filings for the first half of 2018. Counter to the national trend, 26 of the 219 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report posted a year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity in the first six months of 2018, including Houston, Texas (up 10%); Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas (up 11%); Cleveland, Ohio (up 4%); Phoenix, Arizona (up 5%). ‘Localized foreclosure flare-ups in the first half of 2018 can no longer be blamed on legacy distress left over from the last housing bubble given that nearly half of all active foreclosures are now tied to loans originated in 2009 or later and given that the average time to foreclose plummeted in the first two quarters of the year,’ said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president with ATTOM Data Solutions. ‘Instead these local foreclosure increases are typically the result of more recent distress triggers in those markets.’”
“‘We’re also seeing early evidence of gradually loosening lending standards starting in 2014, specifically for FHA-backed loans,’ Blomquist added. ‘The foreclosure rate on FHA loans originated in 2014 and 2015 has now jumped above the average FHA foreclosure rate for all loan vintages — the only two post-recession vintages with foreclosure rates above that overall average.’”
“Counter to the national trend, foreclosures were on the rise in the Phoenix area in the first half of the year. But it’s no reason to worry. There were more than 5,000 foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions — in the Valley through June, a 5 percent increase from a year ago, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. The good news? That’s just a fraction of the 74,000 foreclosures in the area during the worst times of the housing crisis a decade ago.”
“A decade ago, you’d see foreclosure signs across most Southwest Florida, which became the sign of a troubled economy and housing market. And now, despite a building boom across our area and a robust jobs market, we’re once again starting to see the number of foreclosures climb. A sight reminiscent of years past is once again popping up in Cape Coral and across the rest of SWFL. Cape Coral homeowner Jacob Rico says he notices fewer people in his neighborhood, ‘I see many houses like this – empty. Over there a couple houses is empty.’”
“More homeowners in Southwest Florida are struggling to pay their mortgages on time, an apparent lingering effect from Hurricane Irma. In the Sarasota-Manatee region, 4.4 percent of mortgages were at least 30 days overdue in May, up from 3 percent one year earlier, CoreLogic said. Charlotte County also posted a 4.4 percent mortgage delinquency rate, higher than the 3.5 percent last year. In Florida, the 30-day delinquency rate averaged 6.7 percent, ahead of the year-ago 5.5 percent. The rates of homes already in the foreclosure process are holding below year-ago levels, a sign that lenders may be postponing taking struggling homeowners to court.”
“‘The percent of loans 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure are more than double what they were before last autumn’s hurricanes in Houston, Texas, and Naples, Florida,’ said Frank Martell, CEO at CoreLogic.”
“Connecticut entered July with the fifth-highest rate of residential mortgages under foreclosure in the nation, according to a study of more than 360,000 foreclosures nationally over the first six months of the year. As of the most recent records posted by the Connecticut state courts, Bridgeport had the largest number of pending foreclosure sales in the coming month at 30 properties, followed by the cities of Stamford, New Haven and Hartford with 18 each. But affluent towns are seeing activity, as well, with a half-dozen foreclosure sales under way in Westport, five in Ridgefield and a pair of properties in Greenwich.”
“According to PropertyShark, Queens had 881 properties go into new foreclosure proceedings in this year’s second quarter, running from April to June. Queens — particularly the Southeast section of the borough — continues to be ground zero in terms of an ongoing mortgage crisis. Those numbers did not likely take leaders at Community Board 12 by surprise. ‘District 12 is still a hotbed for foreclosures,’ said CB 12 District Manager Yvonne Reddick.”
“Reddick’s oft-repeated advice is that dealing with the problem early in the process is far preferable to what can result if people as a matter of pride or other reasons choose to ignore notices and the ability to reach out for help. ‘When the marshal shows up to evict you, people are going to know,’ Reddick said.”
“President Donald Trump’s new tax cut plan may have created a shift in the Westchester housing market. According to appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate, home sales in Westchester plunged 18 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. That is the highest amount since 2011. ‘When they look at a property, they are concerned about the amount of taxes they’ll have to pay,’ says Michele Silverman Bedell, broker/owner of Silverson’s Realty. ‘The taxes could be $20,000 $30,000, $40,000 on a house.’”
“Bedell says this could discourage buyers and convince potential sellers to downsize. It could also flood the market with inventory and force price reductions.”
“Both startling and subtle evidence is emerging that our housing market is changing course. Let me count the ways: 1) California notice of default filings (step one of the foreclosure process) were up a staggering 24 percent (4,144) in June compared with one year ago. And, the state has experienced three straight months (April, May and June) of increased foreclosure activity according, to Daren Blomquist, Attom Data Solutions senior vice president.”
“Twenty-two states posted year-over-year increases in foreclosure starts for the first half of 2018. Normally solid metro areas like Las Vegas, Dallas-Fort Worth and Minneapolis-St. Paul experienced increases, also according to Blomquist. Thirteen percent of Orange County home sellers reduced their asking prices in recent weeks, according to Steve Thomas of Reports On Housing. Orange County’s home-listing inventory hit 5,983 this time last year, Thomas reported. This week, there were 6,501 homes listed for sale, a 9 percent increase over this time last year.”
“Sellers would be best served by prudence. ‘We’ve hit the top of the market. Anybody new to the market better price their property at market rate or below,’ said Dan Keller of EXP Realty in San Clemente. In this current market, I see many buyers playing a fools game by way overbidding based upon actual closed comparable sales. You’ve got to get rid of that ‘got to have it no matter what’ mentality.”
“June’s home sales numbers for North Texas made me do a double take. Preowned home sales in the area were down by the biggest year-over-year percentage in four years. Okay, it wasn’t down by much — just a 3 percent drop from June 2017’s record high preowned home buys. But for the last few years, the only direction Dallas-Fort Worth’s housing market has known is ‘up.’”
“All good things must come to an end. And there are more signs that our runaway housing market is hitting a ceiling. ‘Maybe we are seeing the beginning of the slowdown of the hyper growth Dallas has had for the last six or seven years,’ said Dr. James Gaines, chief economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. ‘We’ve been kind of expecting it for almost a year now. It’s going to slow down eventually,’ he said. ‘The eventually may be getting here.’”
“Another telling sign of where the D-FW home market is headed this year is the rise in homes on the market. The almost 25,000 houses with ‘for sale’ signs in the front yard is the largest local inventory since 2012. ‘It’s not necessarily that the market is gong to go bad,’ Gaines said. ‘But the almost double digit price increases and increases in sales volume are going to slow down we think. You are going to start seeing some small negatives on a year-over-year basis.’”
“One subdivision won’t end the Rogue Valley’s housing shortage. In a real estate market where a dearth of housing inventory is decried at the turn of every calendar page, however, a Mahar Homes subdivision is poised to provide more options for 55-and-older buyers. Prices haven’t been fixed on the 28-acre development that will eventually have 44 single-family residences overlooking orchards and vineyards, but Mahar Homes General Manager Randy Jones indicated price tags will range above the $400,000 mark.”
“The number of houses on the market grew 16.2 percent to 1,117 from 961 and topped 1,000 for the first time since last September. ‘We’re seeing more people jumping in,’ said Colin Mullane, spokesman for the Rogue Valley Association of Realtors. ‘We’re reaching peak prices of 2005 and 2006 after a much steadier build. We’ve been hoping for this for quite some time.’”
“The first wave of modern high-end homes is about to hit Akron. Private developers are busily buying up 35 acres of city-owned land to build 349 homes in four developments, some so dense that 15 houses will fit on an acre. The first of the homes will be on the market later this year or early next, carrying price tags of up to $280,000. It’s all single-family housing.”
“More cautious residents worry that developers are overestimating the market. That’s what happened on Hickory Street when two homes went up, the bottom fell out on the housing market and no more units have been built since. ‘That’s my biggest concern is that you’ll have 51 homes at $200,000 and nobody to buy them,’ said Jamie Brown, who lives beside the future site. Some neighbors also question the prices. How, in a city with a median household income of $35,240, can anyone afford a $200,000 home?”
“‘There are a lot of [used] homes here that are selling for half that. So why would someone spend that much?’ asked the Rev. Scott Campbell, whose Shoreline Church sits across the street from the barren Guinther Park. ‘Are they going to sit empty if no one buys them and eventually become Section 8?’”
“Prices for purchasing a house in Sidney are on the downward trend, but asking prices still remain pretty steep in the area. Leif Anderson, owner of Beagle Properties in Sidney, says that single family homes are selling fairly well. ‘But the other segments, commercial lots and multi-family homes, aren’t going very well,’ Anderson said.”
“He explained that homes have experienced a fairly significant correction or decline in prices. But are prices back to where they were prior to the pre-Bakken days? ‘Not even close, actually,’ Anderson said. He said people might think that way until they look back at the much lower prices from years such as 2005 and 2006. ‘You forget where our numbers were. Compare to that, the numbers are still pretty big.’”
“He is worried that the prices may even dip lower. ‘We felt because there’s more [oil] activity, it would strengthen the real estate market. So far, it hasn’t happened yet.’ Factors why the housing market hasn’t improved in eastern Montana include that most of the oil activity has been being conducted in North Dakota and that Williston and Watford City now has plenty of housing available. ‘We won’t have an overflow,’ Anderson said.”
‘You are going to start seeing some small negatives on a year-over-year basis’
‘We’ve hit the top of the market. Anybody new to the market better price their property at market rate or below’
When the cheerleaders are on the bus, the game is over.
Small negatives now give rise to large negatives later, as fly-by-night flippers who were only HODLing residential real estate for appreciation try to cash out before their home equity wealth effects disapate. A sizable share of yesterday’s demand for a shortage of inventory will morph into tomorrow’s supply glut with no buyers in sight who are willing or able to pay yesterday’s market price.
I might add that this turn of the market is destined to be far more brutal than most last ones, thanks to the Fed blowing a dog whistle for fly-by-night investors to pile into residential real estate when they announced housing price reflation measures at the point when the market was settling back to normalcy.
Yup…even people who don’t know what the Fed is now know that smart people always buy the dip. It’ll take a lot of pain to unlearn that. For some gamblers there isn’t enough pain in the world to get over the excitement of the big score.
What does that say for the Wall St. gamblers and hedge funds who are still piling into residential real estate at the apparent pinnacle?
“What does that say for the Wall St. gamblers and hedge funds who are still piling into residential real estate…”
“What does that say for the Wall St. gamblers and hedge funds who are still piling into residential real estate at the apparent pinnacle?”
Since there were few consequences last crash and even bonuses for some why not jump in with both feet?
Since the Fed has deemed real estate a protected asset class, there is no possible way to lose money by investing in it.
Juno Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Florida Retirement/Vacation Property Market Implodes
https://www.movoto.com/juno-beach-fl/market-trends/
I don’t know, Juno?
Do you know, Hugo?
I scream, you scream, we all scream for ice cream.
Except, of course, Hugo and Juno.
I bet Hugo-A-Go-Go knows.
‘Localized foreclosure flare-ups in the first half of 2018 can no longer be blamed on legacy distress left over from the last housing bubble given that nearly half of all active foreclosures are now tied to loans originated in 2009 or later and given that the average time to foreclose plummeted in the first two quarters of the year,’ said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president with ATTOM Data Solutions. ‘We’re also seeing early evidence of gradually loosening lending standards starting in 2014, specifically for FHA-backed loans,’ Blomquist added. ‘The foreclosure rate on FHA loans originated in 2014 and 2015 has now jumped above the average FHA foreclosure rate for all loan vintages’
‘can no longer be blamed’
Why would you blame something like that? Maybe he means brushed off, ignored, cuz that’s what they’ve been doing. These big foreclosure numbers have been there for a while and the media has been awol. They might say, “it’s the hurricane”. In Dallas?
Was there ever a period of time between the old foreclosures and the new foreclosures?
And how will that Trump economy be without the cash-out refi money? We had one year of declining non-financial debt in the whole expansion.
https://larrylittlefield.wordpress.com/2018/03/26/americas-debts-those-who-came-of-age-in-the-1960s-and-early-1970s-are-still-in-charge/
FYI, I learned to track Federal Reserve Z1 data from The Housing Bubble Blog.
Whoa that’s a pretty interesting link .
You might like the prior ones too. Same subject, but I vary the rant each year. This one has a quote from Vince Lombardi.
https://larrylittlefield.wordpress.com/2017/04/25/generation-greeds-last-economic-orgy-federal-reserve-z1-debt-data-for-2016-rising-housing-prices-census-bureau-data-on-worse-off-young-adults-falling-life-expectancy-etc/
“Everybody grabbing, nobody tackling.”
This one describes the link between rising debt and rising inequality. Can’t have one without the other.
https://larrylittlefield.wordpress.com/2014/03/09/debt-and-inequality-go-together-rising-debt-is-the-cause-of-rising-inequality/
“ATTOM data solutions on Thursday reported foreclosure filings for the first half of 2018 were down 15% from the samer period last year to 362,275, down 78% from a peak of 1,654,634 in the first six months of 2010.”
Couldn’t help but notice that you conveniently edited out the second half of the first sentence of the article about foreclosures actually being down 15% YOY. But you know, context….
With foreclosure moratoriums in all 50 states, it only appears foreclosures are lower.
Santa Rosa, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Sonoma County Housing Market Tanks
https://www.zillow.com/santa-rosa-ca/home-values/
They play so many games with these foreclosure numbers.
‘down 78% from a peak of 1,654,634 in the first six months of 2010′
Why not use 2001 or 1995? It’s just as irrelevant. What matters is 2014-15 FHA defaults are shooting up. What happened in 2014? Easing lending standards and more ever since. Did you know Freddie Mac started a ninja loan program this July? If you want to have the REIC pull a bag over your head, by all means, go ahead.
Wrong. Data cannot be viewed in a vacuum. It needs either real-time or historical context to show the full picture.
You say: 2014 brought easing lending standards and more ever since.
Article says: 15% YOY DECREASE in foreclosures
With easing lending, that sounds like a good thing.
Article says: 26 of 219 markets saw YOY increase in foreclosures.
So 195 markets saw no change or a decrease in foreclosures YOY? Still sounds like a good thing.
If trying to discredit by saying “they play so many games with foreclosure numbers”; first of all, who is “they?” Second, why the long winded article if the numbers within it aren’t even true?
I suggest you go here:
https://www.nar.realtor/
ATTOM is the NAR in disguise. Got it. The conspiracy continues!
September 4, 2012
NAR and Florida Realtors to Create Repeat Sales Index: Why?
‘The motivation for the creation of a new index seems to be the popularity of the Case Shiller Home Price Index which has been a thorn in NAR’s side since it was introduced a number of years ago. Ironically, NAR enabled Case Shiller to thrive from NAR’s own inability to become a neutral trusted advisor of the exclusive housing data they publish. The culture at NAR Research enabled the two most recent chief economists Lereah and Yun to consistently interpret the numbers with an almost cartoonish glowing angle that has caused severe damage to the NAR brand.’
‘In other words, Realtors and their associations have long ago missed the opportunity to be a reliable provider of real estate stats, but that’s really ok. After all, the association is a trade group and any stats they produce are, by definition, tainted even if they aren’t. Case in point: NAR just revised their Existing Home Sales stats after data provider CORElogic discovered there was a significant error and pressured them to do a revision. NAR had double counted about 2M sales since 2007.’
http://www.millersamuel.com/nar-and-florida-realtors-to-create-repeat-sales-index-why/
Ok, and? If you feel the NAR is misleading, then why utilize articles that could potentially contain data that isn’t correct and coming from the NAR? It can give off the appearance that you only use certain information that will fit a particular narrative.
“I suggest you go here:”
https://www.nar.realtor/
“National Association Of Realtors Caught Lying About Home Sales”
https://homesrealestateforsale.com/national-association-of-realtors-caught-lying-about-home-sales/
We already know what you’re pushing, Blocks.
Housing
Dallas, TX Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Oil Bust accelerates
https://www.zillow.com/dallas-tx-75219/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
“It can give off the appearance that you only use certain information that will fit a particular narrative”.
Ah………Ok.
I think what many here are pushing (our narrative) is that what passes for a normal sustainable housing market to many around this world in reality isn’t normal or sustainable.
Twenty years ago the median income for a couple in California was about $55,000.00.
https://www.ftb.ca.gov/aboutFTB/annrpt/1997/pit.shtml
Twenty years ago my wife and I were looking to buy a house in Long Beach, SoCal. We looked at some Cliff May homes that were located inland near El Dorado Park off Studebaker Road. Nice little houses with a mid-century aesthetic that were coming onto the market from the original 1st owners.
The price range was from $140-190K depending on the size of the house. You can’t get into one of these houses today for under $800,000.00.
We ended up buying in Belmont Heights. The house cost was about $290,000.00. We splurged, but the price was still only about 2-2 1/2 times our combined yearly income. We eventually sold that house. Today, looking at neighborhood comps that same house would fetch about $1.5 million.
You can rent my old house today for a nominal 5K per month.
http://pacificsurfproperties.com/property_31540606_residential_rent_long_beach_8PW17205398/
My mortgage for this house was about $1700.00 per month at a 7.2% interest rate until the day that we sold it.
I wrote a couple of weeks ago about my in-laws in Ladera Heights selling their house for $1.35 million after 3 days on the market. That house was about 270K in 97. The homes in my old Costa Mesa neighborhood that I grew up in were going for the low 200,000.00’s in the 90’s. The house across the street from my parents sold for 800K last year.
Meanwhile the median income for a couple has risen in the last 20 years in California to whopping $67,000.00.
https://www.deptofnumbers.com/income/california/
Let me help you in case your still confused about the narrative. Houses have gone up in price 400-600% over 20 years. Meanwhile median income only goes up about 25% over the same time period.
At some point people aren’t going to spend 10 to 30 times their modest yearly income to buy a house no matter how low the interest rate or down payment.
Some of believe that we are now at that point.
Excellent response. The numbers combined with your personal experience show just how extreme the last 20 years have been, irrefutably. Most new buyers today simply cannot fathom a house that is now $1mil+ used to be 200k, during their lifetimes too! And some of us on here who do know still appreciate being reminded.
The math is so bad it’s comical. It’s clear what’s coming - CR8ER.
ja = troll du juor
Oh please.
Talk about burying the lede..the headline says “Foreclosure Filings Down 15% In First Half of 2018″. Not exactly a sign of impending calamity is it?
And then counter to the national trend, 26 of 219, or about 10% of cities posted an increase. So 90% decreased, 10% increased. And this is ebidence the bubble has popped? Come on Ben.
Naples, FL Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Land Prices Plunge
https://www.zillow.com/naples-fl/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
‘Come on Ben’
Trolls all of a sudden, I must be over the target. Buy several shacks then. I dare ya. And if you don’t like this blog I’ll refund your subscription. Uh wait…
Foreclosure #s are likely going to be an extremely lagging indicator of the bubble, but probably a decent indicator of where prices will start to fall first. The article even compares foreclosure #s to 2010 which was a good 3 year after the bubble burst last time.
To me it’s not surprising that foreclosure activity is down YOY since changes in loan requirements (DTI increase; downpayment lowered) and loan limits increase. If you are having trouble paying a mortgage, probably still pretty easy to unload your home because more buyers in the market than the year before.
If anything, a takeaway from this article is to watch these markets that had a YOY increase despite more people qualifying for mortgages in their city and the ability to borrow more money. Example, I think it’s interesting to contrast the Dallas foreclosure increase with the article later in the HBB post that says about the Dallas market ‘The almost 25,000 houses with ‘for sale’ signs in the front yard is the largest local inventory since 2012.’
Dallas is probably ahead of the curve on the price bubble.
How lagging will it be? I’ve seen imminent doom and gloom coming from this blog for over a year since I discovered it. Haven’t seen the correction yet.
A whole year? I guess it’s never gonna happen then.
That NAR would never lie lol.
Quote: “The National Association of Realtors, which produces a widely watched monthly estimate of sales of previously owned homes, is examining the possibility that it over-counted U.S. home sales dating back as far as 2007.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704476604576158452087956150
Ja what brought you to the HBB? Likely a keyword search on google “housing market bubble” or the likes. I like you glass is half full angle on real estate but is that because you either have ties to it as an investor or are part of the other end a realtor or mortgage lender yourself? What’s your take on the future of RE? Is it going to keep going up? Should I buy now before it’s too late? I look at both sides of the equation and do my research on trends and financials daily. I suspect we may have hit a peak and from a fundamentals standpoint don’t see how RE can continue upward. The economy is strong so I do understand how it is happening but can it really continue like this and for how long? I’m always open to listen to the other end of topics like this post and you seem to be defense over the idea it could be headed towards negative territory.
Appreciate the points you’ve made here, Bubbleville. I do have income dependent on real estate, but I assume the majority on this blog do. Otherwise, what would be their interest in a real estate blog? I don’t invest in BitCoin, so you won’t find me on a BitCoin blog.
I posted briefly above, but can expand here. I do think that housing is on a path to depreciate in the future. Much like it has been appreciating since 2012. It’s cyclical. And yes, the variance of cycles tends to get larger over long periods of time, specifically with things that are deemed “valuable”. The main point I was trying to make yesterday, is that often times the attitude of this blog is imminent doom and gloom. If you’ve bought a house, you’re a debt donkey and are going to get what you deserve. That may be true for some, but I don’t believe that it is a majority. ALL I was trying to do yesterday was challenge what appears to be grossly accepted thinking by the consistent posters, and moderator, of a site that I do really enjoy.
Housing
Castle Rock, CO Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/castle-rock-co/market-trends/
And I’m the troll, LOL
Just a DebtDonkey.
Kings Beach, CA Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/kings-beach-ca/market-trends/
Ja, I agree that a majority here likely have some position in real estate, I have a property I’m holding onto still after selling my main residence at the end of 2016. I am in the market to get back in when the cost is not so overheated / inflated but my crystal ball isn’t working in my favor (thought 2017 was the year we would see a correction) so I will sit on the sidelines waiting
On a side note, I spoke with a friend of a friend whom is a realtor yesterday and asked about the market here in California and what she her take was on purchasing now vs waiting. Started off as a “buy now before it goes up” but ended with her saying “interest rates will go up and make it less affordable, 2020 we will see actual values go down”. Works for me! Planning to cash purchase so interest rates don’t affect me :). Worse case scenario for me is it does keep going up and I pay more, oh well, least I can say I tried!
Why would you ask a realtor anything?
Being in the market to purchase another SFR for my family (at some point) I am engaged with realtors often. I do my DD which envolves the HBB, daily real estate news, and engaging myself with realtors whether an open house or a social gathering such as one of my kids friends birthday parties where often a parent is a realtor. Doesn’t mean I buy into there take on the direction of real estate, but I am open to hearing there side of the equation, even if I don’t agree… often times it is for my own amusement
“…and engaging myself with realtors whether an open house or a social gathering such as one of my kids friends birthday parties where often a parent is a realtor.”
It really is the ultimate in poor taste for a sales person to ply their trade at a friend’s party.
Haha that got me laughing 😂. Well most realtors I’ve met are usually on the clock 24/7 and see people as potential clients at any occasion. “Networking” is how they get most of there clients, and what better a place to do it than a kids birthday party where you can gain trust and credibility by the fact your also a parent. Sometimes I get the feeling like I may come off more as a $ amount rather than someone they want to socialize with. I would be pretty uncomfortable if it was a used car salesman doing that so I get your point! Note to self, avoid conversations with realtors.
’some so dense that 15 houses will fit on an acre’
That’s gotta be a typo.
‘California notice of default filings (step one of the foreclosure process) were up a staggering 24 percent (4,144) in June compared with one year ago. And, the state has experienced three straight months (April, May and June) of increased foreclosure activity according’
What did the trolls say back in 2006? “It’s coming from a low base”.
15 houses per acre?
43,500 square feet per acre = 3,000ish square feet per house, which is a 30 x 100 square foot lot, or about half of a basketball court. I guess this is possible.
I asked my iPad …
“How many apartments can I build on an acre?”
And she replied …
“Each unit is 1600 square feet and the ground floor units have a small patio. The density is 30 units per acre. Circulation and open space amount to 25% of the site. This scheme includes six story apartment buildings with 40 units per building for a total of 240 units.”
These are apartments, not houses, but nevertheless I find it interesting.
Ben do you have the source of this data? Interested in reading more on this…
From the article: “A mix of 156 homes and townhouses”
It’s probably not hard to get and average 3000 sq ft if you use a mix of SFH and townhomes.
——————–
Here’s a historic one on Capitol Hill, six blocks from the Capitol Building. 2000 sq ft lot. A postage stamp front yard and a tiny patio for a backyard.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/119-6th-St-NE-Washington-DC-20002/417562_zpid/?fullpage=true
And here’s an SFH in another part of DC on 3500 sq ft lot: Yeah its in bad shape but the point is that it has land.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5310-14th-St-NW-Washington-DC-20011/68071281_zpid/?fullpage=true
And here’s one in Queens, NY on 5000 sq ft lot:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/11523-141st-St-Jamaica-NY-11436/32181310_zpid/?fullpage=true
———————–
Many more townhomes on 1500 sq ft or less. And I’m sure there are a ton of modern rowhouses that do the same thing.
The real question is why they need to do this in AKRON OHIO. As HA says, nothing but land all around. And who is going to pay $200K in Akron? Here’s what $200K buys near Akron, lovely old Tudor (granted, crappy schools)
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1427-Delia-Ave-Akron-OH-44320/35452558_zpid/?fullpage=true
Cool house. But at that price the hood has to be awful. Or is Akron really cheap and 185k in’t cheap?
There are some ‘hoods in Akron where the local hoods might shoot you for just driving down the street. Don’t know about the Delia Ave. area.
Digging a little deeper, the taxes on the 1427 Delia Ave house in Akron are close to $3k/yr.
Zillow is also showing the property sold for $31,500 in Feb 2017.
Looking at the pics, it looks like it has all the trendy new stuff, but underneath you’re looking at a house that was originally constructed in 1925.
It was originally listed at $215k on June 25 and reduced to $184.9k only 3 days later (June 28).
This is one specific house. There are more at the price point. The question is whether someone would want to buy a modern townhouse squished on no land when a more pleasant house can be had for the same price. Why don’t builders just fill the same space with 2-bed condos at $90K each? The public would be knocking down the door. (but of course Mr. Banker would be despondant.)
‘‘Maybe we are seeing the beginning of the slowdown of the hyper growth Dallas has had for the last six or seven years…We’ve been kind of expecting it for almost a year now. It’s going to slow down eventually…The eventually may be getting here.’
It’s that brash, take-no-prisoners type of forecasting that earns you the big bucks Jim.
‘Queens — particularly the Southeast section of the borough — continues to be ground zero in terms of an ongoing mortgage crisis. Those numbers did not likely take leaders at Community Board 12 by surprise. ‘District 12 is still a hotbed for foreclosures’
Well how about that? All these years, “Oh lending is super-duper safe! Senator Running Deer!”
“Bedell says this could discourage buyers and convince potential sellers to downsize. It could also flood the market with inventory and force price reductions.”
This is just what NY-NJ-CT needs. Those taxes are high not because of services, but because of costs from the past. Underfunded and retroactively enhanced pensions, debts, in adequate pension funding, etc.
And those who benefitted are looking to sell to less well of later-born generations at high prices, burdening them with unaffordable mortgages as well as unaffordable state and local taxes as well as higher federal taxes as well as no Social Security and Medicaid and other service cuts. And head for Florida.
Capitalize it all into property values, or don’t buy. Period. What good will it do me to sell at housing bubble prices at the expense of the future of my own children?
https://larrylittlefield.wordpress.com/2017/12/03/will-new-jerseys-phil-murphy-be-the-first-to-tell-the-truth-about-generation-greed/
And by the way, the answer to the question in the title of that post was “no.”
Not only that, there’s absolutely nothing left to invest in that’s not already in a ginormous bubble. So, the younger folks are expected to buy in at the top of everything - stocks, bonds, commodities, small businesses - just in time for a financial amputation.
Exactly. Increasing asset prices through rock bottom interest rates is always described as a good thing. At least here on the HBB, some people have been asking “good for whom?”
For conforming loans, Fannie and Freddie put the DTI up to 50 percent — 50 percent of GROSS income plus more for taxes — for debt service.
https://larrylittlefield.wordpress.com/2017/12/09/fannies-mae-and-freddie-macs-stealth-economic-war-on-the-millennials/
My expertise is state and local government, so that’s where I say it first, and made my protest.
http://www.ipny.org/littlefield/civicunion2020.html
But now I see it everywhere.
“Expected to buy in at the top of everything - stocks, bonds, commodities, small businesses.”
If every institution is being pillaged and or is overpriced, younger generations will need to create their own new ones until that price drops to reflect the pillage.
Thus, better to overpay for new apartments until that DTI for existing housing drops to 15 percent, instead of 50 percent. At least adding the new apartments creates some jobs.
“So, the younger folks are expected to buy in at the top of everything…”
Somebody has to be the bagholder in every bubble collapse. You wouldn’t want that to be your older, wealthy friends who also have long worked in the FIRE sector, now would you?
We saved them in 2008. How long was it before they were once again saying they are the “makers” and everyone else the “takers?”
When you look at the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state/country, the deal seems to be we get screwed in every other way except that Wall Street gets what it wants.
I can sort of remember seeing the black helicopters with bags of money from Manhattan flying over Brooklyn on their way to Manhattan and Fairfield County, Ct. Within a couple of years, it seemed as if people with bags of money were buying up all of Brooklyn!
Monterey, CA Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY As Mortgage Defaults Balloon
https://www.movoto.com/monterey-ca/market-trends/
What happened to the dude who claimed that oil could only go up from here, now that it finally touched $80, years later than he predicted? It seems to be crashing again, for the second straight week.
Business News
July 12, 2018 / 6:26 PM / Updated 2 hours ago
Oil falls for second week as supply concerns ease
Dmitry Zhdannikov
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices were set for a second straight week of decline on Friday after Libyan ports reopened and on the view that Iran might still export some crude despite U.S. sanctions.
Brent crude was down 10 cents at $74.35 per barrel by 1308 GMT, having fallen earlier by 1.3 percent. It was heading for a weekly fall of around 3 percent.
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up 10 cents at $70.43, and was on course for a weekly decline of around 4 percent.
…
Please show me where I said oil can only go up from here? Talk about timing I bought a house in 2010, you were still talking about plunging prices. I took the $8000 credit in flyover. Yes, in the medium to long term oil is heading higher. Has Trump made progress in keeping pump prices down before the election, yes. MAGA. But in the end it is just what I have been saying for the last four years in particular, cheap oil is running out and the Saudis can determine price now. They have decided to help Trump bit do not count on them allowing oil to drop much from here and if it would shale oil production would stop increasing. I do not get the timing perfect no one does but I get the general trend correct. Can you say the same thing about your San Diego real estate calls?
Talk about timing” yea I sold APA too soon
the future ? feels like a recession next year . yield curve inverting
etc.
“But in the end it is just what I have been saying for the last four years in particular, cheap oil is running out and the Saudis can determine price now.”
Geezuz, you’re in New Mexico bordering Texas, you should know that guys in west Texas are profitable at $5 per barrel right now.
“Can you say the same thing about your San Diego real estate calls?”
Well, yes. But then it is kind of a no brainer. It was in a bubble in 2005 when we first set foot here, and has never returned to normalcy since. Prices were returning to normal (for California) circa 2012, but then the Fed aimed its QE fire hose at the housing market, and sent the bubble aloft again.
Dan never promised more than $80. $80 seems to be the sweet spot for a sustainable balance between the geopolitics and keeping frackers in business. And it was that way 10 years ago too, in nominal terms. In inflation-adjusted dollars, oil is cheaper now than in 2008.
“Dan never promised more than $80. $80 seems to be the sweet spot for a sustainable balance between the geopolitics and keeping frackers in business.”
Please….Ben has posted innumerable stories of drillers profitable at less than $10 per barrel. You just pulled those numbers out of…well…you know where…
I listened to a good Ted Talks podcast this morning about Boomers and their lack of retirement coupled with their arrogance of facing their problems. (Keeping up appearances, spending more when going out with friends, etc). It hit home because my in laws almost downsized out of their McMansion last week. They were going to put an offer in on a smaller, cheaper year-round cottage by a lake which would have worked out well for them. Instead they backed out and continue to live with their buyers remorse from 12 years ago. She never said it, but part of it I think was my MIL worried about keeping up appearances with friends and family. It’s a sad way to live.
“She never said it, but part of it I think was my MIL worried about keeping up appearances with friends and family.”
I’m in love. Send her to me.
The Dotted Line awaits.
Basically, on average those born after 1957 and entering the labor force in the late 1970s or later have been paid 20-25 percent less than those who entered earlier, including the pensions they did not get.
If they had faced this head on, and reduced their spending accordingly, businesses either would to have to have paid them more or sold them less, and the mega-wealth of the mega-wealthy would not have piled up.
Instead they spent more, borrowed, and didn’t save for retirement. Now they are facing a bleak future — and in many cases looking to save the situation at the expense of their worse off offspring.
Blame the buyers of the American lifestyle or the sellers. Don’t blame the millennials, who have been forced to live with less.
Your in-laws remind me of the opposite of this quote:
They were going to put an offer in on a smaller, cheaper year-round cottage by a lake which would have worked out well for them. Instead they backed out and continue to live with their buyers remorse from 12 years ago.
So are you saying they almost bought a smaller cheaper house, WITHOUT having already sold their bigger more expensive house?
Every single one of my former coworkers put an offer on the new shack before even putting the old one on the market.
Every. Single. One.
The rationale was that they didn’t want to sell until they had an offer accepted. It took one of them months to get an offer accepted. The assumption was that the old house would sell quickly and in their cases they it did, usually just days after listing it.
It’s worse than you think. They bought it from a divorcing couple who just wanted to get rid of it. It needed a new kitchen countertop, cabinets, flooring and carpeting all around. 12 years later how much work do you think they’ve done? Zero.
OK. Well my suggestion would be for them to face the reality of getting it sold before they try to buy anything. Otherwise the next step down in their lifestyle could be a doozy.
If the carpeting needed replacing 12 years ago but is still in place today, all I can say is GROSS.
This FBI agent could go on to become one of the greatest Realtors of all time.
GOODLATTE: So, let’s discuss this text that hits home for me. On August 26, 2016, you texted Ms. Page, quote “Just went to a southern Virginia Walmart, I could smell the Trump support. Smell is in capital letters. What does Trump support smell like, Mr. Strzok?
STRZOK: Sir, that’s an expression of speech. I clearly wasn’t smelling one thing or the other. What I was commenting on was living in Northern Virginia –
GOODLATTE: What does that mean?
STRZOK: What I meant by that was living in Northern Virginia, having traveled 150 miles south within the same state, I was struck by the extraordinary difference in the expression of political opinion amongst the community there –
GOODLATTE: You described that as “smell” in capital letters —
STRZOK: Sir, that was a quick choice in a text.
https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/07/12/peter-strzok-pressed-on-text-message-what-does-trump-support-smell-like/
Peter Strzok Asked to Read Trump-Related Texts
JULY 12, 2018 | CLIP OF FBI DEPUTY ASSISTANT DIRECTOR PETER STRZOK ON 2016 INVESTIGATIONS
(reading of texts 1:10 - 2:50)
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4739565/peter-strzok-asked-read-trump-related-texts
Probably smelled like this guy:
http://abc7.com/video-man-harasses-woman-for-wearing-puerto-rico-shirt/3744570/
“Probably smelled like this guy:”
Who certainly smelled better than this girl:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIpkdusnIkE
She seems a bit triggered.
Some family was supposed to raise a contributing member of society… and they failed.
Although ibbots, upon further review that dude was a drunken Twit.
Not one the likes of which I have ever encountered at Walmart or anywhere else, but still a drunken Twit.
He was hitting this.
https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/180125-peter-strzok-lisa-page-fbi.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=1200
I wonder if Strzok even has a sense of “SMELL”.
YIKES!!! If I’m gonna have to hear about affairs and bias and such like, at least make her hot.
OK.
Stormy isn’t going away without a fight.
Should have asked Mr. Strzok, “Is B-S- an expression of speech, too? Would you apply that to what you just said?”
This is not like before.., housing more affordable than ever.
https://www.trulia.com/research/not-father-market/
I’m left speechless, saw a realtor friend post above article on my facebook feed. How can you say housing has grown more affordable?? I don’t get it. Trulia? Take out “Tru” then add an R. Liars. Happy Friday everyone!
From the article:
“If 1980’s mortgage rate came back, the median household would go from being able to afford a $312,653 home to a $144,805 home.”
This entire article is geared towards the “howmuchamonth” crowd. The way I read this, if mortgage rates went up towards 10%, then the housing industry would be forced to actually build houses that were affordable instead of creating indentured servitude by millennials who will never be able to take a vacation, have children, or enjoy life because they paid 2x what prior generations did for a basic necessity.
the housing industry would be forced to actually build houses that were affordable
I’m not sure anything would have to change except the price tags on both new and used homes. The only real issue is all that paper “wealth” out there based on the paper value of houses…and what happens to the people who own that paper when it poofs, along with everyone who benefits from their paper spending.
housing industry would be forced to actually build houses that were affordable
That’s the wishful thinking of a liberal.
If interest rates went up towards 10% — that is, out of the range of Joe Millenial 6-pack — then no, builders would not build affordable housing. They would build crappy housing, and financial institutions will borrow at far less than 10%, buy the crappy houses for cash, and RENT them out at rates so high that your Millenial will *still* never take a vacation, have children, or enjoy life.
Think I’m being cynical? It’s already happened *twice.* The first time was in 2009-2012. Credit was so tight that interest rates may as well have been 10%, so few end-consumers could afford to buy. And it was the financial institutions like Blackstone that bought the houses for cash, fixed them up a bit, and rented them out for sky high.
It happened again starting in mid-2013. Prices are again out of the reach of J-6-pack Millenial. Anything that may have been affordable was either bid up sky high, or snapped up in a cash offer, again. Those dwelling are either rotting away or being rented out to AirBnB partiers. And the rest of the cash is going to… luxe apartments with sky-high rents. Oh sure, Ben likes to post about the concessions and drop, but it doesn’t do much good for luxe rent to drop from $1900 to $1750 if you can only afford $1200.
If renters can’t afford it, no problem, just get the city and employers to subsidize, just like in Denver. If renters still can’t afford it, them just throw money at them too, like they’re planning to in Stockton.
Millenials are screwed either way, and the only solution I see is for the government to start picking actual winners or losers, for example limiting GSE only to end consumers instead of sloshing around these Yellenbucks.
Donk,
Rates have been far higher and housing was very affordable. “Builder”(whatever they are) have nothing to do with it.
the only solution I see is for the government to start picking actual winners or losers, for example limiting GSE only to end consumers instead of sloshing around these Yellenbucks.
I agree with this statement in general as I am for strong regulation. But where I disagree with your assessment is that I believe tax policy and interest rate policy dramatically affect the structure of production. You use the analogy of either taking the bus or having to buy a Mercedes because nothing is affordable. My belief is that a big reason that things are not affordable is because tax policy and myriads of incentives combine such that builders only want to build unaffordable. There is no mechanism in place that drives innovators to create affordable housing solutions.
For instance, imagine if I could wave a magic wand and limit all VA and Fannie/Freddie loans to dwellings that were 2x-3x above the median income for a geographic area. What effect do you think that would have on builders, who want to be able to sell their product, on what they would build? They would be forced to find a way to build affordable or they would go out of business.
They would be forced to find a way to build affordable or they would go out of business.
Judging from the greed they seem to be determined to satisfy, I guess they would no longer BE builders.
Rates have been far higher and housing was very affordable.
When Janet Yellen was in her early 20s.
Judging from the greed they seem to be determined to satisfy, I guess they would no longer BE builders.
Probably some builders would be squeezed out. The producers who would remain would be those who are able to build geared to what end consumers can afford (e.g. no massive monetary stimulus and ridiculously low interest rates, and no money down 3% GSE loans, etc.)
No Donk….just 18 years ago. And now rates are headed right back up there.
Has the Fed let the inflation genie out of the bottle?
Consumer inflation hits 6-year high, CPI shows
By Jeffry Bartash
Published: July 12, 2018 4:05 p.m. ET
Inflation wipes out worker wage gains over past year
…
Why is inflation up? Oil. So why would there be any inflation going forward if I am wrong? You just cannot deal with how much better Trump is doing with the economy compared to Obama.
How else is everyone going to deal with record high housing debt and student debt? The debt has to be reduced in real terms via inflation. Inflate it away over time. I’m pretty sure though that Mr. Banker won’t stand for this and I’m a bit doubtful that wage inflation keeps up. Looks like the misery index is going to keep ticking up.
“Oil.”
That didn’t last.
Brent crude is over $75 and you are acting like it is $10. You really are one of those people that can only see facts that validate their ideology. You really make a good liberal.
You really make a good crowboy.
I’m still waiting for the under $1 gas people on this blog were claiming was inevitable.
“You just cannot deal with how much better Trump is doing with the economy compared to Obama”.
This is Gas Product supplied, not used by consumers, which I would wager is much lower:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MGFUPUS1&f=A
If you look at the chart above you will notice no discernible difference in production over the last ten years. I’m old enough to remember supply and demand in relation to the price of a commodity. I don’t see any relationship to S&D in the price of a barrel of oil today.
My suggestion to find the true value of oil is simple. Require any Wall Street monkeys that want to trade it in paper to physically hold a minimum 30% of the actual product. You know, in storage tanks, with proof of ownership required for possibly a holding period of a month before trading to another monkey.
I would also suggest that these same monkeys be told that after hours trading in stocks is illegal. Require “investors” to only trade during the actual time that the market is open. And while we’re at it lets make stock buy-backs illegal too, like they once were a couple of decades ago. Perhaps we should also kill the algos that we are told provides so much “liquidity” to our “markets”.
Oh…one other thing. We’re also being told that the rate of inflation is 2%. Yea, it’s really around 9% and it it’s been there for over the last decade. Bank interest rates used to be about 3 points over the inflation percentage number. That means the interest rate today should be at 11-12%.
Of course if all this was put into place the economic fraud that thinking Americans have been saddled with pretty much forever would start to fall away and this better Obama (blue) or Trump (red) economy would collapse in about 30 minutes.
Not one Wall Street banker went to jail under Obama. I doubt that we’ll see any going there under the Trump Presidency either.
Screw 30%, they should have to take delivery of all of it.
It’s moronic to turn every economics discussion into Trump versus Obama.
2.5% is coolio ,yo
I realize this time is different, but the last comparable protracted period of stock market correction in 2007-2008 preceded a far larger drop.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-days-away-from-setting-a-bearish-record-2018-06-28
Just like Bitcoin, it is safe to assume that the stock market can never drop, as the Fed is there to keep it aloft.
Oh wait…
‘DOOMED TO DIE’ Bitcoin blasted as a ‘failed experiment’ after huge 70% price crash
The Sun reveals how some experts believe the Bitcoin fad is finally over, as the price comes crashing down and cryptocurrencies die off in the hundreds
Exclusive
By Sean Keach, Digital Technology and Science Editor
4th July 2018, 10:18 am
Updated: 5th July 2018, 1:32 pm
BITCOIN is a “failed experiment” and most other cryptocurrencies are “doomed to die”, experts have told The Sun.
Once hailed as the future of money, Bitcoin is now worth 70% less than last year’s high – and the outlook is bleak for wannabe ‘Bitcoin billionaires’.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/6686173/bitcoin-price-crash-scam-cryptocurrency-dead-value-worth-high/
Wahiawa, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY On Expanding Mortgage Fraud
https://www.zillow.com/wahiawa-hi/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
I have been watching Laguna Niguel in Orange County. Highly desirable area that had 220 active listings in March. Today 300. In May there were about 50 listings with price reduced. Now 130, so almost half all listings. Yet local realtors still say it’s a great time to buy. So thankful I refused to go over asking to compete with others last year when I considered buying.
Yet local realtors still say it’s a great time to buy.
You said prices were reduced…of course it’s a great time to buy. Or are you one of those people who think they are just going to give it away?
When half of houses listed in the area are tagged with reduced prices in a hot market, it seems like now may not be the time to buy.
‘ half of houses listed in the area are tagged with reduced prices in a hot market’
Might not be hot, risking the ire of resident trolls.
Porter Ranch, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Crime Surges
https://www.zillow.com/porter-ranch-los-angeles-ca/home-values/
*Select price from dopdown menu on first chart
Would you live in a haunted house for cheap?
Rancho Santa Fe, California
Heaven’s Gate Suicide House
The cheapest mansion on the block, there’s just one catch…
View all photos
The site of Heaven’s Gate now (2018) after having been entirely rebuilt. easplane (Atlas Obscura User)
A 9,200-sq.-ft., seven bedroom mansion in one of the nicest communities in San Diego, for a mere $668,000? Whenever you hear of a real estate deal that good, there’s always a catch, and the first instinct is to ask, “Who died?”. Going for less than half of its worth, it’s either resting on a sinkhole, or something horrific happened there.
…
Marketing, marketing, marketing … it’s all in the marketing.
Hey, lookie here! It’s the Bonnie & Clyde Death Car! It doesn’t even run but nevertheless it is worth some very big bucks. Why is that?
Answer: Marketing, marketing, marketing … it’s all in the marketing.
http://texashideout.tripod.com/warrencar.html
“Brent Crude Suffers Biggest Price Drop In Two Years”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44802143
Obama did it! No wait, it was Trump! (Rechannelling AlbuquerqueDan’s penetrating economic analysis…)
https://www.google.com/amp/www.dispatch.com/entertainmentlife/20180715/real-estate-report-home-improvement-pace-beginning-to-slow-down%3ftemplate=ampart
Home prices out West continue to rise Western U.S. cities should continue to see the biggest hikes in home prices over the next year, according to the latest forecast from the real-estate service Veros Real-Estate Solutions.
Nationally, Veros projects prices to rise 4.4 percent from June 2018 through May 2019.
-ok so it’s going up you say. I get the improvements as most of the crap shacks purchased here for ridiculously over valued prices require the improvements to make them dwellable. Why are a majority of the homes in California tagged with “price reduced” signs during the highest purchasing time of the year? Wtf is Veros anyway?
JA start by looking Canada, UK, and Australia for the doom. In the USA the doom is in home builders stock which are in bear market territory.
Changing the DTI fom 44% to 50% last July was a policy dramatic enough to extend the pricing cycle in the USA. According to the WSJ 1 in 5 homes in Q4 2017 had a DTI of 50%. If they lowered DTI from 44% to 38% it would have really hurt the market.
Add to the DTI the conventional loan increase this past January of about 7%. It should not be a surprise home prices are up YOY.
Foreclosures will lag prices drops which will trigger foreclosures especially among the zero percent down crowd who have nothing to lose
If the last housing bubble taught us anything it’s that the
individual consequences of walking away from a home is not a big deal.
Irvine, CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Foreclosure Rate Accelerates Statewide
https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca-92618/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart