There Are Signs That Boom May Soon Be Over
A report from Michigan Biz. “West Michigan commercial real estate industry insiders see signs of a genuinely healthy market, albeit one that’s likely plateaued. With several large-scale projects currently under construction around the region, many wonder what comes next for the area. Q: Why do you think we’re now attracting these larger projects? Chris Beckering, executive vice president of Pioneer Construction, a Grand Rapids-based general contractor: ‘To some extent, that’s been a selffulfilling prophecy because there’s this magic number of 100 units for financing. You’re getting into a whole other tier of financing options when you’re over 100 units … so developers like to build them because they can finance them. When they’re done and stabilized, there’s a huge market for selling them.’”
From Fox 6 Now on Wisconsin. “The real estate economy in Wisconsin is hot. So why are taxpayers paying the price? A FOX6 investigation finds it’s all because of something called ‘tax increment financing’ — or TIF for short. ‘It’s a taxpayer subsidy of a real estate development,’ said State Senator Duey Stroebel, a Saukville Republican who is a realtor by trade. TIF-funded projects are helping cities, towns and villages across Wisconsin to re-invent themselves with new luxury apartments, town homes, condominiums, music venues, restaurants, shopping centers and more. That means taxpayers are fronting millions of dollars for private developments.”
“‘Why?’ Stroebel asked. ‘We are in a booming real estate economy… does the taxpayer really need to subsidize high-end apartments?’ In recent years, the senator says TIF use has exploded, even for projects built on valuable real estate. ‘It just doesn’t make sense.’”
From WGLT in Illinois. “The off-campus student housing business has changed drastically in the last decade, when ISU closed (and later demolished) two giant dorms and pushed 1,500 students into the private sector. Landlords—many of them developers themselves—have responded by building fancier and fancier apartments, trying to meet the demands of a modern college student. That’s continued this summer, as builders put the finishing touches on three new apartment buildings surrounding ISU.”
“It’s been like that year after year. Townwide Normal has seen 64 new apartment buildings with over 1,240 units built over the last decade, many for the ISU market, according to Town of Normal records. Yet there are signs that new-construction boom may soon be over, including the possibility of more on-campus university housing at ISU.”
“‘With this (Lodge expansion) project and a couple others, we’re probably at a saturation point,’ said Andy Netzer, general manager and managing broker at Young America Realty, the largest student landlord in Normal. ‘The supply and demand has shifted a little. For the next couple of years, you’ll not see a lot of new construction coming on. If we did more of this, we’d be creating our own vacancy somewhere else,’ Netzer added.”
From Bisnow on DC. “For years, D.C. apartment developers have built thousands of apartments, and they have leased them up quickly, satiating a seemingly endless desire for new rentals in the urban marketplace. But the tide is starting to turn. Vacancy in D.C.-area apartments in the second quarter rose from 2.7% in 2017 to 3.6%, according to Delta Associates’ latest report. While absorption has begun to slow, construction has not. Over the next three years, more than 29,000 apartments are expected to deliver in the region, up from just under 28,000 from 2017. ‘We had projected for the past year or two that absorption would steadily start to decrease, and that is steadily starting to happen,’ Delta Associates President William Rich said.”
From AM New York. “As owners put a slew of homes on the market, the bevy of choices dragged Manhattan home prices down 1.1 percent — the largest annual decline since the financial crisis, according to StreetEasy. Rental rates in Long Island City, Astoria and Sunnyside stagnated, and about 25 percent of units were leased at discounted rates, according to StreetEasy. Grant Long, StreetEasy’s senior economist, wrote that condos in that corner of the borough are often purchased as an investment that can be rented out.”
“‘Rents in Northwest Queens have been declining over the past year, driven in large part by the new construction in Long Island City,’ Long wrote. ‘But with increased competition on the market, they [investors] should be ready for renters to negotiate and be willing to offer concessions in order to stand apart from the pack.’”
From Community Impact on Texas. “The supply of apartment units coming online in the Greater Austin area—and in the Cedar Park and Leander area—is outpacing the demand for those types of products. According to Apartment Data, three out of the past four years have seen more than 11,000 units added to the Austin area market annually. ADS President Bruce McClenny said the area market tends to operate better at delivering 7,000 units per year. ‘There’s just been too many units delivered, so there’s been an oversupply of units,’ he said.”
From KOMO News in Washington. “William Shadbolt shows off his newly remodeled Belltown studio he owns and has rented for $1,195 a month. But, he has decided to sell it, not because he no longer wants to be a landlord, it’s that he no longer likes being a landlord in Seattle. ‘After all the different ordinances the City has passed, it just wasn’t worth renting out property in the City of Seattle,’ said Shadbolt.”
“And he’s not alone. A just-completed study by researchers at the University of Washington, paid for by the City of Seattle found 40 percent of landlords survey indicated they have sold or will be selling rental properties in the city because of the new rental restrictions. Meanwhile, real estate website Zillow has found rental prices in Seattle still very high but flattening out. ‘Data from May and June of this year see rents dip in the city,’ said Aaron Terrazas, Senior Economist at Zillow. ‘This has happened in other major cities in New York, Washington, D.C. and San Francisco in the past few years and its finally catching up to Seattle,’ said Terrazas.”
The Bay Area Reporter in California. “Due to a variety of factors, from changing demographics and consumer behavior to rising rents and costs to do business in San Francisco, there is a glut of vacant commercial spaces along Market Street between Octavia Boulevard and Castro Street. Over a decade ago, Bevan Dufty, when he was the neighborhood’s supervisor, led an effort to plan for what residents wanted to see in the design of the dozen buildings being proposed for vacant lots and former gas stations along upper Market Street. With half of the projects now built, Dufty recently told the B.A.R. that he has mixed feelings about their impact.”
“During the middle of most weekdays in the Castro, Dufty said, one could roll a bowling ball down the sidewalk due to the lack of people in the area.”
The Desert Sun in California. “Jerry Marymont’s house – a three-bedroom property overlooking the tenth fairway of a private golf course – was set to net him $13,000 during the Coachella Valley Music Festival. But Marymont says he hasn’t seen a cent from the booking. The company he hired to manage his rental, Luxe Vacation Homes, shut down on July 6, leaving Marymont among a group of Coachella Valley homeowners that say Luxe checked out of the local vacation rental industry without paying them for recent reservations.”
“Marymont estimates the company owes him $18,000 in total – a sum he thinks is likely small compared to the debts other homeowners could claim. ‘I guess I was one of the lucky ones,’ he said.”
“Instead of splitting income with each homeowner, they say the company used rent to fund its operations and depended on revenue generated from subsequent guests to pay back homeowners for previous bookings. In a February 2018 court deposition, Luxe Vacation Homes CEO Justin Steubs estimated that the company owed homeowners $700,000.”
“Steubs did not consent to an interview, citing the advice of his attorney. In a written statement to The Desert Sun, he denied accusations that Luxe Vacation Homes is a Ponzi scheme and accused a former partner, Eleazar Lua, of defaming Luxe in a previous interview. Steubs said increased competition prompted Luxe to close. ‘Unfortunately, due to competing market forces and internal corporate restructuring issues, Luxe Vacation Homes has encountered financial difficulties and has decided to wind down and close,’ Steubs wrote.”
“To understand how Luxe Vacation Rentals unraveled, The Desert Sun is drawing from interviews with homeowners and 375 pages of court documents and real estate disciplinary records. The court papers include a February 2018 deposition in which Steubs describes the Luxe business model as ‘a ticking time bomb’ and acknowledges using homeowners’ money to fund operations.”
“Based on the financial information court-appointed accountant H. Les Kornblatt was able to gather, Luxe Vacation Homes appeared to be insolvent every year from 2012 to 2017. ‘The only way the company has survived in recent years is by use of the excess cash flow generated from property ‘guests’ over the actual payment of rents collected to company clients,’ Kornblatt wrote. ‘Sort of like a Ponzi situation; as long as the ‘guest’ base continues to grow, then there is cash flow to meet the corresponding obligations.’”
‘A just-completed study by researchers at the University of Washington, paid for by the City of Seattle found 40 percent of landlords survey indicated they have sold or will be selling rental properties in the city because of the new rental restrictions.’
Oh, the city regulations made them want to sell. Suddenly!
‘Meanwhile, real estate website Zillow has found rental prices in Seattle still very high but flattening out.’
Flattening?
‘Data from May and June of this year see rents dip in the city,’ said Aaron Terrazas, Senior Economist at Zillow. ‘This has happened in other major cities in New York, Washington, D.C. and San Francisco in the past few years and its finally catching up to Seattle’
Aaron, you guys in the REIC have breathlessly told us rents were to the moon Alice! for years. Now you say rents have fallen for years in major cities?
Of course anyone here at the HBB knew that because I documented it all along and don’t listen to REIC BS.
All good top level points.
But there is also a level of truth to the additional costs to the owner/mgmt company by Seattle bylaws.
Example 1. for multi-unit apartments, the manager must drop by to document concerns of one unit against another. I am led to believe that the biggest complaint in Seattle is noise during quiet hours (i.e. 10PM to 6AM for most complexes). That is expensive and annoying. Another top complaint is marijuana and cigarette smoke escaping from one unit into the hallway and to another unit.
Example 2. For some complexes, the management company has to drop by to change HVAC filters every 2-3 months. They cannot just buy the filters and ask the tenants to swap them out.
“…Seattle found 40 percent of landlords survey indicated they have sold or will be selling rental properties in the city because of the new rental restrictions.”
Considering the fact that they made it illegal to do background checks on prospective tenants, I’m not surprised. Imagine not being allowed to know that your potential tenant was a violent felon or serial sex offender?
If the prices were still skyrocketing, they’d just leave them empty.
June 7, 2018
The Star Tribune in Minnesota. “Nearly 340 residential buildings sit empty and boarded across Minneapolis, despite a severe housing shortage and a steep vacant property fee that has raised $20 million for city services over the past decade. The problem isn’t specific to Minneapolis. St. Paul has 634 vacant properties, according to the city’s data. The Twin Cities’ situation is dwarfed by the street after street of boarded-up properties in cities like Baltimore, home to more than 16,000 vacant houses.”
“These days, many of the homes left vacant sit in the Twin Cities’ most desirable real estate neighborhoods and have increased exponentially in value in recent years. Instead of selling for profit, the owners pay thousands annually to the city as they wait for the right moment to renovate, tear down or sell. Timothy Alexon, who owns scores of properties in north Minneapolis, said the annual fee pales in comparison to what he plans to make when his company eventually sells them.”
“‘The houses are going up more than the [fee] is costing me,’ he said.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10456
Oh man those losses are going to be crushing. Too bad nobody could have seen it coming.
Illegal to do background checks?? Reference, please? I hadn’t heard of that, if true…
Seattle did pass a crazy law that landlords had to rent to the _first_ qualified tenant who applied, which seemed insane. Why should a landlord be deprived of the right to pick whoever they believe will be the best tenant?
But that law did get overturned:
https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/03/28/25968155/judge-rules-against-seattles-first-in-time-rental-law
Illegal to do background checks?? Reference, please? I hadn’t heard of that, if true…
I’m guessing this: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-expected-to-give-final-ok-to-protections-for-rental-applicants-with-criminal-records/
https://medium.com/rhawas-current/seattle-ban-on-use-of-criminal-history-by-landlords-begins-on-february-19-2018-b9abd28f5596
The Seattle city council seems to have it out for smaller landlords and panders to tenants. Their vision of utopia includes rent control and car-free zones.
‘…,40 percent of landlords survey indicated they have sold or will be selling rental properties in the city because of the new rental restrictions.’
That should work wonders for affordability and availability. Kudos to the City of Seattle for passing measures which are expected to reduce rents and help restore normalcy for those who just need a roof over their heads, not a high-octane bubble investment.
Restore normalcy? No, you don’t understand Socialist Seattle. The next step by the city will be a requirement that a certain percentage of housing units be provided at no cost for “low-barrier” housing, in order to help the homeless.
You can’t even make this stuff up.
‘Vacancy in D.C.-area apartments in the second quarter rose from 2.7% in 2017 to 3.6%, according to Delta Associates’ latest report. While absorption has begun to slow, construction has not. Over the next three years, more than 29,000 apartments are expected to deliver in the region, up from just under 28,000 from 2017′
Fooked.
’signs of a genuinely healthy market, albeit one that’s likely plateaued. With several large-scale projects currently under construction around the region, many wonder what comes next for the area. Q: Why do you think we’re now attracting these larger projects? ‘To some extent, that’s been a selffulfilling prophecy because there’s this magic number of 100 units for financing. You’re getting into a whole other tier of financing options when you’re over 100 units … so developers like to build them because they can finance them. When they’re done and stabilized, there’s a huge market for selling them.’
This is the big source of the bubble. They don’t care about occupancy, or vision or any of that horse hockey. It’s flipping for a quick buck and it’s been on a massive scale.
This is the big source of the bubble. They don’t care about occupancy, or vision or any of that horse hockey. It’s flipping for a quick buck and it’s been on a massive scale.
That’s one of my big issues with a housing bubble. They’re flattening forests and leaving blight which will plague for years because it just so happens they’re speculating in large physical objects. At least when there’s a bubble in a financial or other virtual objects, people can freely speculate in those items without concomitant environmental destruction.
they had a gameplan. They would have a management company get to 80% rented - and using that turn around and sell it to REITs and Pension Plans.
Now - they have to get to Plan B - which probably involves f***ing the banks.
The Fed is always ready with a helping hand if the banks are getting shafted. The taxpayers can handle the problem.
Yet Seattle housing prices fell 40% anyways.
Portland, OR Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Housing Depreciation Ravages Homeowners
https://www.zillow.com/portland-or-97209/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
‘there is a glut of vacant commercial spaces along Market Street between Octavia Boulevard and Castro Street…During the middle of most weekdays in the Castro, Dufty said, one could roll a bowling ball down the sidewalk due to the lack of people in the area’
But, shortage?
I thought all sidewalks in San Francisco were covered with homeless people, addicts shooting up, and poop?
The homeless and drug addicts aren’t people.
Under-served consumers?
We call them ‘community members’ here in Seattle.
We call them ‘community members’ here in Seattle.
Yes..like the ‘community member’ I saw randomly walk across an open lane of traffic today, and kick a dent in the driver’s door of the car that dared to honk at them for walking around in the middle of traffic.
Who wouldn’t want to live/work/drive in this place, with such a great community?!?!?
“During the middle of most weekdays in the Castro, Dufty said, one could roll a bowling ball down the sidewalk due to the lack of people there”
There is an old joke about if you drop your keys on Castro you kick them down to Market before picking them up.
Lots of pirates around the Castro.
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Demand Plummets To 4 Year Low As Housing Inventory Balloons
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/san-francisco-bay-area-june-home-sales-fall-to-lowest-point-in-4-years.html
“‘We are in a booming real estate economy… does the taxpayer really need to subsidize high-end apartments?’ In recent years, the senator says TIF use has exploded, even for projects built on valuable real estate. ‘It just doesn’t make sense.’”
Bahahahahaha …the reason you don’t think it makes sense is because you are not positioned correctly.
If you do not understand this then you are just as stupid as everyone else.
From the article:
‘When the project was originally approved in 2017, the developer — Stephen Perry Smith Architects — made no request for any TIF incentive. In early July, however, another apartment project started demolition on a property adjacent to Lakepointe. For that project, Port Washington-based Ansay Development Corporation is receiving $330,000 in taxpayer assistance to help clean-up potentially contaminated soil from an old chair factory. Now, Smith Architects are planning to go back to the Port Washington common council to ask for TIF assistance for their project, too.’
‘Port Washington’s new mayor had a colorful description for the sudden change of heart. “Johnny got a piece of candy, why can’t I get a piece of candy,” said Becker, who was just elected in April and has mixed feelings on the subject of TIFs. “TIF is a way of life,” he said. “Everybody’s going to ask for it. They’re foolish if they don’t.”
‘But it’s not just Port Washington: Grafton recently gave $875-thousand dollars in TIF incentives for an apartment complex. Mequon ponied up $1-point-7 million for a mix of retail and residential known as Spur 16. Cedarburg kicked in $1-point-9 million for apartments on the site of the old St. Francis borgia school. The Milwaukee Bucks’ new arena is financed with $12-million dollars in TIF incentives. Foxconn will get more than $764-million in TIF financing.’
‘All told, there are currently 1,261 active tax increment financing districts across the state. “It’s really become commonplace,” Stroebel said.’
‘All told, there are currently 1,261 active tax increment financing districts across the state. “It’s really become commonplace,” Stroebel said.’
It’s really become commonplace because the average taxpayer has become completely dumbed-down by the PTB and the PTB’s minions in the MSM and by the No Child Left Behind school system policies.
If you do not understand this then you are just as stupid as everyone else.
I once heard a Congressman querying Bernanke at a minor Congressional event. The Congressman kept saying “physical” instead of “fiscal”.
US Housing Prices Crater As New Home Demand Plummets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-25/u-s-new-home-sales-decline-to-eight-month-low-as-prices-fall
CR8TER
“The decline in sales left 301,000 homes available nationwide in June, the most since March 2009.”
So many ’since the financial crisis’ statistics showing up at the same time must be a coincidence. It can’t possibly be a sign of incipient Housing Bubble collapse!
‘Based on the financial information court-appointed accountant, H. Les Kornblatt was able to gather, Luxe Vacation Homes appeared to be insolvent every year from 2012 to 2017. ‘The only way the company has survived in recent years is by use of the excess cash flow generated from property ‘guests’ over the actual payment of rents collected to company clients,’ Kornblatt wrote. ‘Sort of like a Ponzi situation’
In California?
This made me laugh. They thought they’d make a fortune gouging the hell out of some people visiting Coachella. Then ended up getting nothing!
Santa Cruz, CA Housing Prices Crater 9% YOY As Prices Continue To Fall To Long Term Factor Of 2X Annual Household Income
https://www.zillow.com/santa-cruz-ca-95060/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
Yay!! Looking forward to more declines here
This is not real estate related but nevertheless here’s a good question:
“Global Warming: Why Hasn’t The California Heat Wave Sparked The Usual Climate Hysteria?”
Here’s a possible answer:
“Perhaps they’ve come to the realization that after decades of end-of-the-world predictions and oversaturation coverage, during which time global temperatures have barely budged, the public has stopped paying attention. You can only predict the end of the world so many times, after all, before people start to get skeptical.
“The attempts by scientists and environmental activists to blame everything on global warming has probably increased public skepticism as well. Case in point is a video running on the Weather Channel app about a study that claims to have found a link between suicides and climate change. Even an uninformed public will start to question the validity of all these wild claims.
“The public may also have noticed that the most vocal preachers of climate change doom — Al Gore, Leonardo DiCaprio, etc. — don’t act like there’s any crisis whatsoever. They still own huge energy sucking mansions and party on massive gas guzzling yachts.
“They aren’t the only global warming hypocrites. A survey earlier this year by researchers at the University of Michigan and Cornell University found that those who said they were “highly concerned” about global warming were the least likely to take individual action. Skeptics were more likely to do the things the alarmist demand: recycle, use public transportation and so forth.”what
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/global-warming-california-heat-wave/
If any of you pukes believe this prediction then you are truly a total idiot …
“Sea-Levels, Rising Up To 23 Feet, Could Sink More Than 1,400 US Cities By 2100: Study”
https://www.ibtimes.com/sea-levels-rising-23-feet-could-sink-more-1400-us-cities-2100-study-1365801
sea levels could rise about 6 feet (1 meter by 2011) according to most climate scientists. If we do not reduce our emissions dramatically- this could double to two meters.
please present data and facts not from investor or business sites who have an interstate in fossil fuel companies.
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/new-study-finds-sea-level-rise-accelerating
“Al Gore’s movie ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ says sea levels could rise up to 20 feet. Is this true? » Scienceline”
(snip)
There certainly a lot of uncertainties here. Take a look …
“In 2007, the International Panel on Climate Change, an organization composed of scientists and policy makers around the world who monitor human-caused climate change, estimated that sea levels would rise 0.18 to 0.6 meters (0.59 to 2.0 feet) over the next 100 years. The IPCC based this prediction primarily on how much the ocean waters are expected to warm and expand.”
0.59 to 2.0 feet over the next 100 years. Nice spread, no?
“The panel also factored in the ice melting from Greenland and Antarctica based on how much these bodies have melted in recent years—from 1993 to 2003. But the estimates do not account for any changes in the speed of the weakened ice that flows from the glaciers into the ocean—either from melting ice or iceberg break-off, which may happen in the future. The IPCC acknowledged the limitations of their projections and said that sea level rise could be higher if the ice sheets break down more rapidly.”
“The IPCC acknowledged the limitations of their projections …” How nice of them. So much for settled science.
“The IPCC did not include changes in ice flow because these types of changes are not very well understood.”
Oh, darn.
“However, a study published this year in the journal Science attempts to set an upper limit on sea level rise by 2100.”
“Attempts” LOL.
“We have estimated limits on sea level rise during the next century by considering simple constraints on glacier and ice sheet motion,” says Joel Harper, an author of this study and a glacier expert at the University of Montana in Missoula. “Our work suggests that a 0.8-meter [2.6 feet] sea level rise is plausible, two-meter [6.5 feet] is only possible under extreme conditions, and more than two-meter is unlikely,” he says.”
😁
“To make their calculations, the researchers took into account the rate of ice flow from Greenland, Antarctica, and glaciers and ice caps from other parts of the world. They took current values of glacial ice-flow speeds and adjusted the values based on changes that they think could reasonably occur in the future, such as accelerated ice flow from certain glaciers. They then used these modified values to come up with low, medium and high estimates of future sea-level rise.
CThe researchers also determined that Greenland’s glaciers—specifically, the ones with outlets under water—would have to move about 40 times faster than they do now to achieve a rise of two meters over the next 100 years.”
Bahahahahahahahahahahaha.
“And this increased ice-flow speed would need to start immediately and continue for the rest of the 21st century.”
Bahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
http://scienceline.org/2008/12/ask-rettner-sea-level-rise-al-gore-an-inconvenient-truth/
Interesting. I always thought the scary headlines were based on the assumption that the icecaps completely melted. I didn’t realize that the ice volume is so high that it only needed to partially melt to raise sea level 20+ feet. That’s a ton-o-ice.
Blah, blah, blah … $alt.of.the .earth mid.we$t farmers are now harvest$ting mature crop$ week$ earlier than ever.known.
Count me in. I think AGW is a BS hoax, perpetrated for an agenda. While it may get a little warmer, that is probably just natural climate variation. Not human-caused.
OTOH, reducing pollution and waste seem like good ideas in general.
Warmists gonna warm.
“highly concerned” about global warming were the least likely to take individual action. Skeptics were more likely to do the things the alarmist demand: recycle, use public transportation and so forth.”
how funny
When I found out that the GW solution was going to be administered by (((Goldman sucks))) via the carbon credit exchange I knew this was a mighty scam.
Lets present facts about global warming. World wide data, including that from NASA and the NOAA have hard data and evidence that global temperatures are now 1.1 C above the pre industrial level. Carbon levels in the atmosphere are the highest in 10 million years. In 1900 C02 stood at 300ppm- slightly above the level it has been in every inter glacial over the last 800,000 years. Its is now near 410ppm and rising rapidly.
The arctic currently is seeing sea ice melting a very rapid pace.
Of all the places in the USA California is split in best areas to live in the future. The area from about San Simeon north to the SF bay area, north to the Oregon border will be best. Southern California will be less suited, as it it becomes hotter and drier.
NOTE: Please present facts and evidence about a warming climate instead of your opinion. You do other readers here a huge disservice denying climate change. Real estate will have good areas in the future and horrible areas. By mid century migration to the sun belt and south will reverse due to heat, rising sea levels, storms and invasive species.
Best places to live- as mentioned before the Pacific coast- upper midwest, Northeast (north of Washington DC) AVOID Florida, desert parts of California Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Texas, the entire rest of the south, mid to lower great plains. Also good are Idaho, Wyoming.
No one believes the “world wide data” as it has been politicized.
You need to go to WUWT and climate4u. Correlation does not prove causation and we are still -around 2 degrees c below the peak of at least four interglacial periods in the last 400000 years despite the increased co2 levels. If you check the global temperature for June you will see we are roughly where we were twenty years ago. The correlation between co2 and temperature becomes more doubtful every year co2 increases and temperatures do not. I can go on and on and use to before the majority of the board started to see it as a scam.
” Please present facts and evidence…”
Well, you don’t.
A “greenhouse gas” theory is total BS. The guy who came up with it was bat-shit crazy and was discredited by his peers. It ignores what we “know” about physics.
Sea level is cyclic with glacial periods. It is well known why the Southern Hemisphere doesn’t get glacial periods and the Northern does. The thought manipulators that some follow religiously don’t dare discuss this. Understanding it would go a long way for some, not so much for others.
Petey,
The official stats are BS.
Most of us know it now.
I once guzzled the kool-aid. Once I rinsed with truth serum I never looked back.
If you truly believe the man-made GW BS I don’t condemn you out of hand. I only ask that you start to ??? those bedrock principles that people parrot minus rational thought.
Once you go down the rabbit hole there’s no going back.
‘Landlords—many of them developers themselves—have responded by building fancier and fancier apartments, trying to meet the demands of a modern college student. That’s continued this summer, as builders put the finishing touches on three new apartment buildings surrounding ISU.’
‘It’s been like that year after year. Townwide Normal has seen 64 new apartment buildings with over 1,240 units built over the last decade’
And the story:
‘building fancier and fancier apartments, trying to meet the demands of a modern college student’
This is a fabrication to justify bubble pricing.
I’ve been out of the college scene for a while. Just what does the “modern” college student demand? Other than cheap rent, dependable toilets, and a place to bang.
60+ percent of all outstanding student loan debt in the U.S. is held by women.
If you majored in Victim Studies and work at Starbucks, better snag yourself a BetaBux husband to pay off those loans…
Just what does the “modern” college student demand?
A sliver of hope for a job after graduation.
My daughter says that many students at WWU Bellingham have permits for Emotional Support Animals, which they tote around campus. I never heard that story at Cal Poly SLO back in the day.
The U.S. Housing Market Looks Headed for Its Worst Slowdown in Years
By Prashant Gopal and Sho Chandra
July 26, 2018
Bloomberg
“Some of the most expensive markets, where sales are falling under the weight of prices, are now seeing substantial increases in supply, according to Redfin Corp. In San Jose, California, inventory was up 12 percent in June from a year earlier. It rose 24 percent in Seattle and 32 percent in Portland, Oregon. Those big jumps are from low numbers, so the housing crunch is still a serious problem.”
“Dustin Miller, an agent with Windermere Realty Trust in Portland, said he’s trying to manage sellers’ expectations, something he hasn’t had to do since the end of the last housing boom. One customer, a baby boomer moving to a new home across the state, expected to have buyers fighting over her house. She got one bid, below her asking price.”
““This could be the very beginning of a turning point,” said Robert Shiller, a Nobel Prize-winning economist who is famed for warning of the dot-com and housing bubbles, in an interview. He stressed that he isn’t ready to make that call yet.”
“Dustin Miller, an agent with Windermere Realty Trust in Portland, said he’s trying to manage sellers’ expectations, something he hasn’t had to do since the end of the last housing boom.”
“Manage sellers expectations” 😁 I like the way that is put.
“One customer, a baby boomer moving to a new home across the state, expected to have buyers fighting over her house. She got one bid, below her asking price.”
Bahahahaha … I like that as well.
😁
’something he hasn’t had to do since the end of the last housing boom’
We’ve been hearing that a lot lately. Not since 2008, etc. Some brown spots in the trousers out there.
Been hearing a lot of this, too, lately:
“…the largest annual decline since the financial crisis,…”
Must be getting close to time for the Trump-Munchkin bailouts.
“Must be getting close to time for the Trump-Munchkin bailouts.”
Unfortunately the floodwaters of debt will only be parted long enough for “our friends” to escape. The rest of the leveraged will end-up drowning and lose everything.
Sh*t is starting to get real.
It’s time to HELOC that shack to the rafters… sell it to the bank!
Sell it to the bank?
Bahahahaha … how about getting your a$$ out of the way and watch the bank simply take it?
Now now Mr. Banker. You gotta at least give them a little something something for their name on the dotted line that actually lets you take it.
What they should get is a good education in that the tuition that is painfully extracted from their stupid hides from what should be a lesson or two is so high but alas (or, rather, gratefully) the learning curve they get to enjoy (and I get to exploit 😁) suffers from a chronic case of extreme flatness.
News
Most Millennial Homeowners Have Regrets About Buying A House
Christina Marfice
Jul 23, 2018
Image via LOUOATES / Getty Images
Millennials regret buying homes because they can’t afford to, and millennials everywhere are like, “Duh”
Millennial homeownership is on the rise. Around 37 percent of people ages 25 to 34 now own a home. But a new study by Bank of the West shows that of those who have overcome the recession and purchased homes, nearly 70 percent say they regret taking the plunge and buying homes.
…
My rent is going up 1.7% when my lease renews on 9/1.
I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it.
I knew. Now I don’t have to work.
I don’t regret not owning a home (a double negative, you see what I did there?).
“I don’t see any reason it
wouldwouldn’t be Russia.”“We sterilized some folks.”
“London House Prices Are Still Falling — And They’re Not Going To Stop Any Time Soon”
https://www.businessinsider.com/london-house-prices-fall-may-2018-7
‘Grant Long, StreetEasy’s senior economist, wrote that condos in that corner of the borough are often purchased as an investment that can be rented out.’
‘Rents in Northwest Queens have been declining over the past year, driven in large part by the new construction in Long Island City,’ Long wrote. ‘But with increased competition on the market, they [investors] should be ready for renters to negotiate and be willing to offer concessions in order to stand apart from the pack.’
Wait a minute Grant. Don’t the renters know these investors have a huge mortgage to pay? Are you saying they don’t care? Well, there’s always the sweet equity that’s rolling in. What’s that? Prices are falling?
‘three out of the past four years have seen more than 11,000 units added to the Austin area market annually. ADS President Bruce McClenny said the area market tends to operate better at delivering 7,000 units per year. ‘There’s just been too many units delivered, so there’s been an oversupply of units’
Again, these formerly “hot” markets overshoot by many thousands. Not one yet has pulled back. It’s almost like these CRE analysts didn’t have a clue.
Diana is beating her new drum again today!
“Housing market is showing signs of cracking: ‘Anything-goes list-price strategy is no longer working’ ”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/26/the-anything-goes-list-price-strategy-is-no-longer-working-in-housin.html
“In one of the nation’s hottest metropolitan markets, Denver, Colorado, home sales fell 5.5 percent annually in June, even as prices hit an all-time high… Realtors there blame it squarely on a lack of homes for sale.”
See, there’s such a shortage! Sales are down because there’s no inventory! LMAO
Gosh, I hope no one paid too much in such an environment.
Can you find that article with Caitlyn from Portland quoted as saying “you gotta roll with it” please?
thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9612
https://www.oregonlive.com/front-porch/index.ssf/2016/04/looking_for_a_home_in_the_red-.html
Yes!
Realtors are liars.
‘Realtors there blame it squarely on a lack of homes for sale’
Denver is over.
Nobody wants to move here now and alot of people here are leaving.
At 0:51 of this video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GaMcsKtBDwE
the girl reads the words…
“Realtors are liars”
Just realized that Casey Serin/Constantine/Konstantin had gotten quiet again. Sure enough, I no longer see him on FB where I was seeing updates until recently. Account appears to be gone. And he has a single horrible 1 star review on Google pointing out his history and claiming that he hasn’t learned a thing. It appears the crypto meltdown may have taken him out again. That’s where his focus was a month or two ago.
“Sydney House Prices Fall Most Since 2008″
https://www.afr.com/real-estate/tighter-credit-bites-sydney-house-prices-fall-most-since-2008-melbourne-slows-20180725-h1340u
One millennial options trader was killing it, then Facebook cost him $180,000
Published: July 26, 2018 3:38 p.m. ET
Brutal session for Facebook investors.
By Shawn Langlois
Social-media editor
Dennis Cao, a 24-year-old software engineer with a penchant for risk, just got caught on the wrong side of Facebook’s (FB, -19.32%) historic plunge. He says it cost him $180,000, or almost 40% of his account.
…
What we have before us is a landmine market, where things are going just fine until the moment a bit of bad news torpedoes the share price of your favorite company.
Watch your step!
He says it cost him $180,000, or almost 40% of his account.
Stupidity should hurt.
…
“Here, hit my hand.”
Still well above the price at the beginning of April. Seems kinda stupid to assume it could only go up after a run up like that.
Kind of makes me think of those investors who were in XIV and SVXY and lost 80-95% of their account value when volatility spiked. It seemed like such a safe bet, until it all blew up in their face and some Wall Street derivative traders made off like bandits.
“Dennis Cao, a 24-year-old software engineer with a penchant for risk…”
Greed and fear relate to an old Wall Street saying: “Financial markets are driven by two powerful emotions – greed and fear.” —Wikipedia
Any thoughts on why Treasury yields are heading skyward?
The Wall Street Journal
Treasurys Fall on ECB Decision, Lower Trade Tensions
European Central Bank signals rates will be steady until the end of next summer
By Orla McCaffrey
Updated July 26, 2018 4:27 p.m. ET
U.S. government-bond prices fell Thursday after the European Central Bank said it would hold its benchmark interest rate steady and the U.S. reported progress on a revamped Nafta agreement.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled at 2.975%, up from 2.936% Wednesday. Yields rise as bond prices fall.
…
there will be a sh@tstorm if interest rates rise. The FED will do more QE or eliminate the PPT from stock market so it crashes and folks rush to bonds. There is so much debt and leverage that rising rates would cause a depression the likes have never been seen on earth.
DEBT= money
How much did u lose in FB today?
They are already rising off a historic low base, but so far no sh@storm.
I don’t know but there’s only one path forward to a booming economy. That path is is dramatically higher interest rates in the 12%-15% range.
“That path is is dramatically higher intere$t rate$ in the 12%-15% range”
Glory, glory, hallelujah!
He is trampling out the vintage where the grapes of wrath are stored;
He hath loosed the fateful lightning of His terrible swift sword
1) Japan is experiencing some headwinds: “The BOJ’s offer to buy an unlimited amount of bonds on Monday was meant to meet its policy objective of keeping 10-year yields at around zero percent, an official at the financial markets department said. Its offer to buy the note at 0.11 percent wasn’t met with any sellers.” — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-23/japan-s-bond-yields-jump-on-reports-boj-to-discuss-policy-change
And they’ve mentioned the magic words: “While Kuroda and his board did say they would consider discussing an exit from the stimulus policy from fiscal 2019…”
2) ECB has also said the magic words: “The European Central Bank on Thursday, as expected, left interest rates unchanged and affirmed its plan to end its monthly bond-buying program in December.” — https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecb-leaves-rates-unchanged-reiterates-plan-to-end-bond-purchases-in-december-2018-07-26
Now, both statements above state that unconventional monetary policy will continue until inflation meets its two percent target. Searches for Eurozone data shows that apparently inflation is reaching 2%. Unclear what sparked Japan’s trial balloon.
The prospect of a change in the ruling monetary policy paradigm of the past decade would mean less money chasing government debt.
Is there anything else to this? A change in thinking about monetary policy? Only the central bank and primary dealer heads know. Japan is nowhere close to a 2% inflation target but perhaps they are starting to reach the hard limits of unconventional monetary policy.
“Unclear what sparked Japan’s trial balloon.”
Maybe, just maybe, after three decades of experimenting, their central wankers have come to realize that QE is deflationary.
Is there anything else to this? A change in thinking about monetary policy? Only the central bank and primary dealer heads know. Japan is nowhere close to a 2% inflation target but perhaps they are starting to reach the hard limits of unconventional monetary policy.
I’ve heard policy makers opine that part of the reason that Japan may be moving towards increasing rates, despite no signs of inflation anywhere, is that zero-bound and negative interest rates are really hurting their banks’ profitability. With interest rates so low banks have no net interest margin and they are losing ground internationally to banks that have a little bit more to work with.
New Study Finds Sea Level Rise Accelerating
This acceleration, driven mainly by increased melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100 when compared to projections that assume a constant rate of sea level rise, according to lead author Steve Nerem. Nerem is a professor of Aerospace Engineering Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, a fellow at Colorado’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and a member of NASA’s Sea Level Change team.
No 23 feet sea rise by 2100- Most estimates are 1 meter- to 2 meters- but this could change.
Housing my friend
Highlands Ranch CO Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Housing Correction Blasts Denver Area
https://www.movoto.com/highlands-ranch-co/market-trends/
Yes it could drop with the sunspot cycle.
NASA’s Sea Level Change team…
Earth, the last frontier.
I love me some Carbon Tax
I love me some reciprocal tariffs to help bring asset prices back to Earth.
You seem to be on the wrong blog. Much deserved skepticism here.
Let’s have a minute of silence in honor of 115 million Yellen Bux that fell in a single Hong Kong transaction today.
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2157037/macau-casino-heiress-pays-hk900-million-peak-mansion-asias-second
Don’t sit around feeling house poor… leverage that shack today and live the life! Remember, “Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and f**k the prom queen.” —John Mason, The Rock
“U.S. Home Equity Lines of Credit Increase 14 Percent in Q1 2018″
http://rismedia.com/2018/06/16/us-home-equity-lines-credit-increase-14-percent-q1-2018/
your house is your meal ticket to not having to work.
we r so deep in the hole interest rates will never be allowed to rise. It will crash the ponzi economy.
Those days are coming to an end Finkelstein.
Finkelstein sh#t kid
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lin8sf_Uns
its been a hell of a run.
“…with a penchant for ri$k”
Nothing$ ventured, nothing$ gained …
$afer & $ecurer $trategie$ can bee found, but sometimes it ri$k’s being, patience. Might be a $truggle @ age 24
The poor HODLers…
PS CCN = really fake news
CCN
Newsflash: Bitcoin Price Slides After SEC Rejects Winklevoss ETF
Josiah Wilmoth in Bitcoin Analysis
Bitcoin Price News
The bitcoin price careened back toward $8,000 on Thursday after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected the Winklevoss twins’ second attempt to create a bitcoin ETF and list it on a regulated stock exchange.
The bitcoin price had entered the evening trading at approximately $8,300, a mark it managed to hold until shortly after 20:30 UTC. At that point, the floor appeared to disappear from under the flagship cryptocurrency’s feet, and it quickly posted a several-hundred-dollar decline. The bitcoin price briefly sunk below $8,100, though it has since recovered to a present value of $8,117.
https://www.ccn.com/newsflash-bitcoin-price-slides-after-sec-rejects-winklevoss-etf/amp/
Key-rasssssssssssssh
1 Bitcoin = 7,930.01 United States Dollar
Glendale, AZ Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/glendale-az-85305/home-values/
“That means taxpayers are fronting millions of dollars for private developments.”
Welfare, Republican style…
BTFD in FB! Its a buying opportunity.
This crap is most definitely bipartisan, part of the PTB.
Is $120 bn alot?
Facebook’s plunge drops Zuckerberg down the billionaire ranks — behind a guy many Americans may not know
By Sally French
Published: July 26, 2018 6:45 p.m. ET
If Facebook’s drop in value holds through the close of trading, Zuckerberg will drop three spots on the Bloomberg Billionaire’s Index.
Mark Zuckerberg will likely get knocked off the podium of top three richest people in the world.
The massive drop in Facebook’s (FB, -18.96%) stock is shaking things up — not just for investors and market watchers, but in rankings of the world’s richest people.
Facebook lost about $120 billion in market capitalization on Thursday after its latest quarterly earnings report showed the social media giant missed expectations on revenue and is experiencing slowing user and revenue growth.
…
Without a star on his belly he won’t be invited to the frankfurter party.
Rents to dive in several Hong Kong districts amid glut of new apartments.
So that’s how that works….
https://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/2156512/supply-glut-will-weigh-rents-hung-hom-tsuen-wan-tseung-kwan
Better unload your shack now, greedheads, cuz this is as good as it’s going to get for you as buyers start to get skittish about overpaying.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2018/07/26/american-housing-market-is-showing-signs-of-running-out-of-steam#gs.E5x=Yr4
UK household debt “worse than at any time on record.” Not coincidentally, the UK housing bubble has been crazy since 2008. Heckova job, Mark Carney.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jul/26/household-debt-in-uk-worse-than-at-any-time-on-record
“Analysts warned that a squeeze on household incomes from benefit cuts, lacklustre wages and high inflation would continue to force poorer households to borrow more to pay basic bills.”
“The Future’s So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades” — Timbuk3
Australia: the greedy nation that sold its soul for high house prices.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/07/greedy-little-nation-sold-soul-house-prices/
I am guessing MR. Banker is going with the “alternative” and vetoing allowing housing prices to fall.
Wow… this piece is loaded with gritty truth!
Great comments too. LMAO
US Economy Accelerates At Fastest Pace In 4 Years On Falling Prices
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economy-accelerates-to-41-rate-in-second-quarter-fastest-in-almost-4-years-2018-07-27
4.1 percent growth and would have been much higher if inventories did not drop so much. However that will help growth going forward. MAGA
That’s what happens when you slash prices… Inventory sells.
Here’s how the 1% lives in Phoenix - Better
https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Paradise-Valley/7131-E-Caballo-Cir-85253/home/27523434
Hehe… you gotta see the walk-in closet, #33.
Got TDS?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Derangement_Syndrome