August 7, 2018

What The Ceiling Looks Like

A report from the Seattle Times in Washington. “Homes are sitting unsold for weeks. Bidding wars are becoming less common. More sellers are even dropping their asking price to attract buyers. The change began suddenly in May — normally the peak buying season — and has only accelerated since, according to new data released Monday. The number of homes for sale across King County jumped 44 percent in July from a year ago, the biggest increase in a decade and the third straight month of huge inventory growth, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Inventory now exceeds 2015 levels, reversing three years of steep declines.”

“King County’s median house price of $699,000 in July was down $27,000 from the record highs reached a couple of months prior. That’s not a normal seasonal drop; just the opposite: Last year, July was the most-expensive month of the year in local real estate. Seattle’s median house price of $805,000 was down $25,000 from the high point reached in the spring and was the lowest since last winter, as inventory in the city shot up a whopping 60 percent. Prices on the Eastside fell $30,000 in one month, to $947,000.”

“‘I think we’ve hit a bit of a plateau, pricewise,’ said Allie Howard, a Windermere broker in Seattle. ‘We’re starting to see what the ceiling looks like.’”

“Zillow reported that the share of local home listings with a price cut has grown to its highest point in four years, and has doubled just in the past four months. About 12 percent of listings in the Seattle metro area had a price cut in June, just behind the national rate of 14 percent.”

“The market cool-down is part of a national trend as inventory finally starts to tick up after years of decline, and price growth continues to moderate. But the Seattle area stands out on the national stage: It saw the second-biggest jump in homes for sale in the country, according to Realtor.com”

“Real-estate experts pointed to a variety of factors driving the cool-down: Rents have stabilized, putting less pressure on first-time buyers to get out of their apartments. Mortgage rates are at their highest point in years, eating away at buying power. Population and job growth in the region, while still strong, has waned. Some agents have reported falling interest among Chinese buyers. The natural question now becomes: Is the market simply taking a breather before surging back up again, or is this the beginning of a new normal — or, even, a sign of a bubble beginning to form?”

The News Tribune in Washington. “Demand for affordable homes in Pierce County has boosted median sale prices in rural areas by nearly $71,000 in the last year, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. ‘Pierce County has, for a handful of years, been the affordability solution for buyers who would otherwise buy in King County,’ said Mike Larson, president/designated broker, Allen Realtors, Lakewood. ‘I think the craziness of the King County market has magnified that fact even more. Buyers are willing to spend two or three hours in their cars each day if it means buying twice as much house.’”

“Area agents and brokers are doing their parts to calm the clamor spilling from King County. ‘The expectation of multiple offers and the ability of sellers to simply dismiss inspection repair requests is behind us,’ Larson said. ‘The days of doing a market analysis and then pushing the envelope on the list price an extra 5 percent are gone. Ultimately, I think that’s healthy for the market.’”

From The Reflector in Washington. “Housing market trends have national media calling it the start of a broad slowdown of the market. Real estate agents are seeing some early impacts in Clark County but overall the market remains strong. Real estate agent Luke Loiselle says that those who are a part of his Keller Williams Realty team have noticed some ’softening’ of the market.”

”I would not call it a crash, or any other alarmist term yet,’ Loiselle wrote in an email about what he has seen, ‘but we are definitely seeing more inventory, more days on market and more price reductions. Don’t get me wrong; we are still rapidly accelerating.’”

“Further adding to a housing market slowdown is interest rate creep, Loiselle said. According to data from the Freddie Mac Economic Housing and Research Group, rates have risen steadily this year for 30-year fixed home mortgages, now currently sitting at about 4.5 percent. Loiselle said that every percentage-point interest rate increase translates into a 10 percent drop in buying power.”

“Loiselle said although the market softening is across the board in Clark County properties, some areas where it’s more sluggish were places farther out into the county as well as pre-existing homes that are near new construction similarly priced as buyers can get something new for not much more.”

“Loiselle said there were some advantages for those looking to sell in the current market, if they were planning to buy a new home as well they can take advantage of interest rates that are trending upward. First-time homebuyers could also benefit, given that it would take a while for the slowdown to lead to a better deal than what is current — some four to eight years. ‘If that is your goal, be OK with waiting for many years before you purchase,’ Loiselle said.”

“For those looking for a home sooner, now might be the time. ‘Waiting until next year, you are only going to see higher interest rates and higher prices, because it will take time for that higher interest rate to adjust to the prices coming down a bit,’ Loiselle said.”




RSS feed

87 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-07 07:18:25

‘Real-estate experts pointed to a variety of factors driving the cool-down’

Remember this time. It’s before the REIC galvanizes around an excuse that makes them look innocent.

Comment by taxpayers
2018-08-07 08:07:06

why not blame trump?

my hood finally made it to 2005 peak

taxes to follow

 
Comment by SWFL
2018-08-07 11:59:35

Do they ever point into the mirror?

Because them skimming what amounts to an entire year of equity gain during a booming RE market just for taking a few pictures of the place and throwing them on a website has more than a little to do with the problem.

Homeowners bust their butts to renovate and maintain their homes for years just to hand all the profit to the realtor when they finally sell it.

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-07 07:19:38

Arlington, VA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY As Mortgage Meltdown Heats Up

https://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-07 07:20:10

‘Area agents and brokers are doing their parts to calm the clamor spilling from King County.’

Ho Jeebus, here it comes…

‘The expectation of multiple offers and the ability of sellers to simply dismiss inspection repair requests is behind us,’ Larson said. ‘The days of doing a market analysis and then pushing the envelope on the list price an extra 5 percent are gone. Ultimately, I think that’s healthy for the market.’

I’d bet a barrel of apples you were telling people to roll with it, write letters, and offer their first born as a sacrifice Allen.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-07 08:33:00

“You gotta roll with it” — Caitlyn Vestal, Portland, OR

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-07 07:21:31

‘Loiselle said although the market softening is across the board in Clark County properties, some areas where it’s more sluggish were places farther out into the county as well as pre-existing homes that are near new construction similarly priced as buyers can get something new for not much more’

And here’s the kiss of death. When new shacks cost less than existing.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-07 07:30:10

‘The number of homes for sale across King County jumped 44 percent in July from a year ago, the biggest increase in a decade and the third straight month of huge inventory growth…Inventory now exceeds 2015 levels, reversing three years of steep declines’

‘King County’s median house price of $699,000 in July was down $27,000 from the record highs reached a couple of months prior. That’s not a normal seasonal drop; just the opposite: Last year, July was the most-expensive month of the year in local real estate. Seattle’s median house price of $805,000 was down $25,000 from the high point reached in the spring and was the lowest since last winter, as inventory in the city shot up a whopping 60 percent. Prices on the Eastside fell $30,000 in one month, to $947,000.’

Where’s that new troll with his wheelbarrow full of crow? You’re gonna need a bigger wheelbarrow!

‘I think we’ve hit a bit of a plateau, pricewise’

I’ll just let that hang out there Allie.

Comment by Patrick
2018-08-07 07:46:27

All this slowdown with the slightest increase in mortgage rates.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-07 08:00:13

Is Denver’s home market showing signs of leveling out?
Denver Business Journal-21 hours ago
The average and median prices of homes dropped from June to July

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-07 08:35:44

Post MJ legalization, the quality of life here has dropped like a rock.

The road rage on the highways is as bad as Miami now.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-07 09:03:08

“Post MJ legalization, the quality of life here has dropped like a rock.”

Don’t try to claim you haven’t been warned!

https://youtu.be/aYHDzrdXHEA

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by ChuckA
2018-08-07 09:46:56

I would of thought MJ would of mellowed everyone out.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by tresho
2018-08-07 11:14:45

A relative in the Denver area says over the last 10 years she has been having increasing difficulty finding competent & willing help for various technical home repairs, e.g. maintaining hot water heating system. A tree trimming crew she contracted with once left a job partly done & did not even return for pay due.

 
 
Comment by Anonymous
 
 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2018-08-07 08:31:13

And there are at least 20 cranes in Seattle, Bellevue, etc….also tons of new condos on Mercer Island…Seattle is ground zero for this bubble…

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2018-08-07 08:33:45

Seattle is ground zero for this bubble and there are still at least 20 cranes in Metro Seattle…condos on mercer island sitting vacant…the bubble has burst for the Emerald City

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-07 09:39:03

“Where’s that new troll with his wheelbarrow full of crow? You’re gonna need a bigger wheelbarrow!”

https://bit.ly/2nigrdd

Right after he fetches me another beer.

 
Comment by foobarbaz
2018-08-07 11:01:27

@Ben

New troll here, or at least your definition of a troll, which is: anyone who disagrees with your timing of a market peak/drop? Don’t you want some different opinions and not just an echo chamber? I don’t get it.

My main premise for housing prices to continue ballooning out for the next two years is: 1) there is still so much money sloshing around from ZIRP and QE 2) interest rates are still at least 100 basis points (that is x4 .25 point increases) away from no longer being accommodating. Which puts us one year away from that mark, at the current rate interest rates are being raised. 3) stock buy backs from the corporate tax break are going to blow the stock market out for the next 12 months at least 4) 30 year fixed is currently at 4.5%, which allows the lenders more fudge room to play their con game 5) low unemployment numbers 6) governments and central banks working together to permanently cause inflation 7) Trump ballooning the national debt, currently projected to be trillion dollar deficits. The national debt in itself is inflationary. 8) governments at full employment which means state retirement systems are pumping the financial system.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-07 11:20:11

Less talk, eat your crow. Weren’t you just saying no markets outside of “outlier” NY were falling? Eat it!

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-08-07 12:59:29

How the hell could the center of the center be an outlier?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by foobarbaz
2018-08-07 13:14:26

@Ben

I included the definition of outlier below for you. To answer your question: “No”! There are currently a half dozen or so outliers that you have been listing and I pointed this out before. NY is one of those and so is Seattle. 99% of the housing market in the US, besides a few outliers, are still climbing in price. Hopefully one day this fraudulent market comes crashing down. Hopefully you are right and it is just starting. I think this fraud of a financial system still has two years to go before it turns over.

out·li·er
a person or thing differing from all other members of a particular group or set.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-08-07 14:35:46

The lava filled crater of an active volcano is an “outlier”?

Only to the clueless.

 
 
 
Comment by Fisherman
2018-08-07 13:03:02

Listen foobarbaz, even if you are genuinely trying to strike up conversation, you’re barking up the wrong tree with this laundry list of ‘reasons why’. The fact is that, on a daily basis, this blog provides a laundry list of cold hard data. Irrefutable facts about prices, sales numbers, inventory, rent:buy cost ratios… all manner of actual measurables that objectively demonstrate that the collapse of housing markets nationwide has been going on for a while. So, if you can equal that output of data with contradictory data, have at it. Theories don’t work. Only data.

Comment by foobarbaz
2018-08-07 14:32:56
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-07 14:55:49

Indices mean little to nothing. Besides it’s Case Shiller which is garbage in, garbage out.

Back to your crow and CraterTaters. Eat up.

 
Comment by Fisherman
2018-08-07 15:31:12

Thanks for the May data. Very timely. You may notice that the data and stories being posted here daily talk specifically about how prices have dropped since spring.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Anonymous
2018-08-07 11:05:59

A 44% YOY change in anything is serious business.

“Sh*t just got real.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-07 11:33:00

The SF inventory increase since the spring is way higher. The REIC is picking the category which shows the lowest increase. I’m surprised…

 
 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-07 07:36:10

“Loiselle said there were some advantages for those looking to sell in the current market, if they were planning to buy a new home as well they can take advantage of interest rates that are trending upward.”

Now there’s an interesting statement. What else is to be said about the matter?

“Waiting until next year, you are only going to see higher interest rates and higher prices, because it will take time for that higher interest rate to adjust to the prices coming down a bit,’ Loiselle said.”

Got it! Higher interest rates are going to lead to higher prices.

?

And this is because it will take time for that higher interest rate to adjust to the prices coming down a bit.

Or sumtin’.

It’s too early in the morning for this sh1t. Maybe I need to take a hit off of my bottle of Jack Daniels before I get into trying to understand any of this.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-07 07:52:32

”I would not call it a crash, or any other alarmist term yet,’ Loiselle wrote in an email about what he has seen, ‘but we are definitely seeing more inventory, more days on market and more price reductions.”

“… but we are definitely seeing more inventory …”

Check.

“… more days on the market …”

Check

“… and more price reductions.”

Which means?

“Don’t get me wrong; we are still rapidly accelerating.’”

😁

Comment by Fisherman
2018-08-07 08:04:59

“Don’t get me wrong; we are still rapidly accelerating.’”

Technically speaking, any change in velocity over time is an acceleration in physics terms. “Deceleration” is a colloquial term for negative acceleration. Perhaps Loiselle is simply a physicist who moonlights as a realtor? [Struggles to keep straight face]

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-07 08:37:46

Physicist, LOL? Realtors can’t even do fifth grade math.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-08-07 13:05:40

“Technically speaking…“Deceleration” is a colloquial term for negative acceleration”

Maybe she’s just lying.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by BubblevilleCA
2018-08-07 08:10:45

I had this conversation with a neighbor of mine a couple months back. Yes she is a realtor. She worded it like this: “interest rates are going up and home prices are going up” at the end of the conversation, and after I asked “what if I was an all cash buyer?” She responded a bit differently but basically the same in a cryptic realtor fashion “interest rates are going up which makes the cost of the home more over the span of the mortgage”. She did reassure me we are showing no signs of a bubble or slowdown as we have plenty of sillycon valley buyers eager to buy anything they can. I’m guessing a future conversation with her might have a different tone ;)

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-07 08:36:08

Well…. realtors will lie to conceal the truth about markets….. And They’ll lie to conceal the fact they don’t really have any expertise on the topic too.

 
Comment by qt
2018-08-07 08:55:23

Translate = NOW is the best time to buy a house!

Comment by Mwr
2018-08-07 11:30:22

Or sell a house 👍

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by MetooBanker
2018-08-07 09:49:19

This is what happens when the language of Misspeaking trickles down from the Planet of Politicians to the masses.

‘Waiting until next year, you are only going to see higher interest rates and higher prices, because it will take time for that higher interest rate to adjust to the prices coming down a bit,’ Loiselle said.”

Does Loiselle mean to say after higher interest rates there is a delay in downward price adjustments?

And why is there such a low bar set for entering the world of real estate sales?

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-07 07:45:41

Bend, OR Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As REIC Attempts To Conceal Crashing Housing Markets

https://www.movoto.com/bend-or/market-trends/

Comment by Magoo
2018-08-07 07:59:16

I’m not sure I would call 5% cratering. I suspect you’ve never been to Crater Lake in OR.

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2018-08-07 08:05:19

If seattle scks that’s big as they have a steady flow of cali tax exiles
same for Portlandia
Lots of lefties are freaked out by SLC and tx

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-07 08:31:48

‘A growing number of Californians are leaving the Golden State behind in search of cheaper living in Washington and Oregon — and locals aren’t very happy about it.’

‘A recent story from SF Gate highlighted how some Bay Area expats who relocated to Seattle, Portland, and Boise, Idaho, are experiencing unwelcoming gestures from locals.’

“Bay Area expats we talked to say they’ve faced a range of backlash, from harmless jokes to threats of violence. One couple who transplanted to Portland in 2017 found their car and home spray-painted with messages like ‘Go back to California,’” wrote SF Gate reporter Alix Martichoux. ‘

‘Some transplants reported seeing “F— California” or “California sucks” graffiti, while others have been verbally derided by locals.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-07 08:40:53

“Did that guy just flip us off?”

“Nah, that’s an unwelcoming gesture.”

Comment by Sam (SW)
2018-08-07 09:07:17

Multiple folks I work with here in California near retirement are looking to relocate to Oregon.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Anonymous
2018-08-07 11:11:08

Why not Nevada? It’s working for me. :D

 
Comment by hunkydory
2018-08-07 18:49:44

I believe it, I’m going there for vacation rather than Clownifornia - tired of the endless crowds and crises and freaks and sky high prices. Plus, a LOT less ghetto birds.

 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-07 08:45:05

There needs to be some kind of registry for expat Clownifornians.

And they can’t live within a mile of any schools, playgrounds, etc.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-07 09:36:36

Is there any other state where the people leaving are called expat? Like it’s a foreign country.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Anonymous
2018-08-07 11:12:57

Speaking of that…how’s that Calif. secession movement going? They ain’t gone yet, unfortunately. JMHO. ;)

 
Comment by whirlyite
2018-08-07 12:57:50

Tex-pats, and yes, it was another country back in the day…

 
 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2018-08-07 08:57:41

Few in the media ever really grasp the social consequences of a housing bubble, probably because those things are irrelevant in an ideology of market determinism. It’s all a glorious series of transactions, often global in scope.

 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-07 08:34:02

Surfside Beach, TX Housing Prices Crater 23% YOY As Vacation And Coastal Housing Demand Collapses

https://www.movoto.com/surfside-beach-tx/market-trends/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-07 08:50:50

Zillow plunges after revenue falls short and analysts downgrade stock
Seattle Times-33 minutes ago
The Seattle-based company also reduced the number of homes it’s targeting to … is a lot of change, and with certain housing indicators flashing warning signs.”.

Comment by Anonymous
2018-08-07 11:00:52

“Zillow bought 19 homes in 2Q, and we estimate another 30 or so in 3Q, based on public records, but the company has only sold nine homes so far, putting it significantly behind its aggressive sales goals…”

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/06/zillow-stock-acquisition-mortgage-lenders-of-america.html

Still LMAO at Zillow’s timing: They start buying/selling directly from/to consumers, just as the market slows down.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-08-07 14:22:34

Still LMAO at Zillow’s timing: They start buying/selling directly from/to consumers, just as the market slows down.

But the Zestimates were going up?!?

 
 
Comment by Dave
2018-08-07 14:15:23

Zillow got schlonged today because it announced that they bought a home mortgage company. Apparently, Wall Street thinks this is a bad idea. In fact, Wall Street thinks that most stocks related to housing stinks: From CNN Money “The SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB) exchange-traded fund, which owns shares of big builders like Lennar (LEN), retailers like Home Depot (HD) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) and appliance maker Whirlpool (WHR), is down nearly 10% so far in 2018″.

Comment by Anonymous
2018-08-07 14:32:18

“Follow the money.” And apparently the money is leaving housing.

 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-07 08:56:27

Hialeah Gardens, FL Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As Housing Analysts Describe Event As ‘Carnage’

https://www.zillow.com/hialeah-gardens-fl/home-values/

*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-07 10:07:37

‘King County’s median house price of $699,000 in July was down $27,000 from the record highs reached a couple of months prior. That’s not a normal seasonal drop; just the opposite…The market cool-down is part of a national trend as inventory finally starts to tick up after years of decline, and price growth continues to moderate. But the Seattle area stands out on the national stage: It saw the second-biggest jump in homes for sale in the country’

Diane is gonna have to run faster to get ahead of this thing. Again, just where is all this inventory coming from? What happened to the shortage? These people listing their shacks can’t all be moving at the exact same time, all across the country. Maybe they were just waiting for the top of the market and missed it, like people try to do with stocks. Of course, that would mean they’re gambling fools. And suggests this shortage talk was a load of whooie all along.

whooie (who-ee): 1. adj. absurd, ridiculous, uninformed, 2. n. an
award for predictions that are proved patently false by advances in
technology, 3. n. cow dung.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-07 10:24:24

I just checked the SeattleClownHouse and he’s still pimping shortage.

 
Comment by qt
2018-08-07 10:56:12

There is only one exit door! Who panic first usually panic best :-)

Update from Silicon Valley

I just found a rental just a block down from my place. Extra half bath with balcony for 100 less per month. They are building new condo and apartments like crazy around the Great Mall near Milpitas. Im hoping for cheaper rents by next year for me to renew or upgrade. My wife doesnt want me to stay here (like in CA) anymore but I just want to stay long enough to get my RSUs.

Comment by drumminj
2018-08-07 20:45:28

My wife doesnt want me to stay here (like in CA) anymore but I just want to stay long enough to get my RSUs.

How long until you’re fully vested?

 
 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2018-08-07 10:47:35

is movoto pokey on inventory reporting. I know it’s up this summer,but they show it as still dropping
https://www.movoto.com/fairfax-va/market-trends/

 
Comment by Lesser Fool
2018-08-07 11:26:31

It’s accepted here that both the buyer’s and the seller’s agents are working against the buyer. The main reason is that both benefit from a higher sales price. I’ve devised the following system to enable the buyer’s agent to benefit more from a lower sales price, thus being motivated to work in favor of the buyer.

This pricing system could be applied to any product or service with agents on both sides.

I have no illusions that the REIC would ever adopt this system, as in the big picture and the long run it should result in lower house prices and hence less commissions overall.

I call my system FARP (Fair and Reasonable Pricing).

Principles:
===========
1. Each person wants to maximize their income/profit.
2. We don’t change the total commission on the sale (typically 6%).
3. Seller’s agent benefits more with a higher sale price
4. Buyer’s agent benefits more with a lower sale price
5. Neither agent should lose money
6. Seller cannot lose money beyond the proceeds of the sale

Below I describe two flavors of the system, which differ only in how the total commission is calculated. Traditionally any commission is based on the sales price of a good, but the second flavor bases it on list price, with interesting results.

Enjoy, and I welcome all feedback; in particular what you think would happen to house prices and buyer/seller/agent behavior if either flavor gained adoption.

=========================================
FARP-SP (Commission based on Sales Price)
=========================================

How the system works
====================
1. Seller and seller’s agent set listing price (LP)
2. The house is sold at some arbitrary sale price (SP)
3. Let N = total commission (in dollars) on SP
4. Let DP = (SP - LP) (could be negative)
5. Let X = DP/LP
6. The seller’s agent gets N*(0.5+X) and the buyer’s agent gets N*(0.5-X), with a floor of zero

Impacts:
========
1. If LP = SP then the commission is divided 50-50 like today
2. If SP > LP then the seller’s agent gets more than 50% at the expense of the buyer’s agent
3. If LP > SP then the buyer’s agent gets more than 50% at the expense of the seller’s agent
4. If either agent is getting more than N, then the difference between N and the amount paid is covered by the buyer

Examples (assuming 6% total commission):
========================================
1. House listed for $100,000, sold at $100,000. Both agents get $3,000 each.
2. House listed for $100,000, sold at $110,000. Seller’s agent gets $3,960; buyer’s agent gets $2,640
3. House listed for $100,000, sold at $90,000. Seller’s agent gets $2,160; buyer’s agent gets $3,240
4. House listed for $100,000, sold at $150,000. Seller’s agent gets $9,000; buyer’s agent gets $0
5. House listed for $100,000, sold at $50,000. Seller’s agent gets $0; buyer’s agent gets $3,000
6. House listed for $100,000, sold at $200,000. Seller’s agent gets $18,000; buyer’s agent gets $0
7. House listed for $100,000, sold at $25,000. Seller’s agent gets $0; buyer’s agent gets $1,875 (of which $1,500 comes from proceeds; $375 from buyer)
8. House listed for $100,000, sold at $3,000. Seller’s agent gets $0; buyer’s agent gets $265 (of which $180 comes from proceeds; $85 from buyer)
9. House listed for $100,000, sold at $0. Seller’s agent gets $0; buyer’s agent gets $0

========================================
FARP-LP (Commission based on List Price)
========================================

How the system works
====================
1. Seller and seller’s agent set listing price (LP)
2. The house is sold at some arbitrary sale price (SP)
3. Let N = total commission (in dollars) on LP
4. Let DP = (SP - LP) (could be negative)
5. Let X = DP/LP
6. The seller’s agent gets N*(0.5+X) and the buyer’s agent gets N*(0.5-X), with a floor of zero

Impacts:
========
1. If LP = SP then the commission is divided 50-50 like today
2. If SP > LP then the seller’s agent gets more than 50% at the expense of the buyer’s agent
3. If LP > SP then the buyer’s agent gets more than 50% at the expense of the seller’s agent
4. If either agent is getting more than N, then the difference between N and the amount paid is covered by the buyer

Examples (assuming 6% total commission):
========================================
1. House listed for $100,000, sold at $100,000. Both agents get $3,000 each.
2. House listed for $100,000, sold at $110,000. Seller’s agent gets $3,600; buyer’s agent gets $2,400
3. House listed for $100,000, sold at $90,000. Seller’s agent gets $2,400; buyer’s agent gets $3,600
4. House listed for $100,000, sold at $150,000. Seller’s agent gets $6,000; buyer’s agent gets $0
5. House listed for $100,000, sold at $50,000. Seller’s agent gets $0; buyer’s agent gets $6,000
6. House listed for $100,000, sold at $200,000. Seller’s agent gets $9,000; buyer’s agent gets $0
7. House listed for $100,000, sold at $25,000. Seller’s agent gets $0; buyer’s agent gets $7,500 (of which $6,000 comes from proceeds; $1,500 from buyer)
8. House listed for $100,000, sold at $3,000. Seller’s agent gets $0; buyer’s agent gets $6,820 (of which $3,000 comes from proceeds; $3,820 from buyer)
9. House listed for $100,000, sold at $0. Seller’s agent gets $0; buyer’s agent gets $9,000 (paid by the buyer)

Comment by tango_uniform
2018-08-07 13:16:12

Boy, that’s a wall of text. I prefer to keep things simple with a system called “FAPP” (Frugal and Parsimonious Pricing). When a seller reaches my personal FAPP I’ll pull the trigger. It’ll be called “The FAPPening”.

 
Comment by Dave
2018-08-07 14:21:51

Fair and Reasonable Treasures.

 
Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-08-07 16:02:38

I appreciate how much thought you’ve given this and I think you’ve zeroed into the misaligned incentives that exist with realtors who purport to represent a buyer or a seller’s interest but which in reality are inherently conflicted.

I think you’ve also theoretically advanced a system that ought to truly align incentives in a way that cuts through the underlying tensions that exist today.

The main challenge I see to what you’ve outlined is the complexity. If it can’t be sold in a few sentences, there is very little likelihood that it will catch on.

Comment by Lesser Fool
2018-08-07 17:22:26

Thanks for the feedback. My system is definitely harder to understand than “6%, no matter what” which people somehow accept as gospel, whether it be a $100,000 house or a $10,000,000 one. And 50-50 is similarly never questioned.

It might be possible to dumb it down while keeping the principle intact and then put some lipstick on it. The simplest thing might be a “cool” app where you simply input the list price and sales price and it spits out who gets how much. That way everyone can play with the numbers also, and decide in advance whether they even want to get involved in the deal.

That way the only issue is how much people trust the app. Given the high degree of trust in online these days (compared to, say, 20 years ago) I think they might go for it.

 
Comment by Lesser Fool
2018-08-07 17:27:34

I will add my own view of what this will do to agent behavior. Listing agents will persuade the seller to list as low as possible so they are likelier to get a sale above asking and thereby get more commission. Buyer’s agents, on the other hand, will be convincing the buyer to underbid as much as possible as that’s how they maximize *their* commission.

End result? Prices start drifting downwards until they reach equilibrium. Greedy sellers are discouraged by their own agents, and buyers discouraged to overbid by theirs. It should actually result in list price being very close to sale price (and accurate appraisals) from the very beginning. Isn’t that what we all want?

 
 
Comment by CorporateShill
2018-08-07 17:50:31

How about a cage match between agents? Seller pays the survivor 6%.

 
 
Comment by tresho
Comment by Anonymous
2018-08-07 11:54:12

Price discovery!!

“The ranch was developed by Texas businessman Sam Wyly and reportedly costs $800,000 a year to operate.”

I wonder if that includes property taxes?

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-08-07 14:34:22

“The ranch was developed by Texas businessman Sam Wyly and reportedly costs $800,000 a year to operate.”

That’s a lot of cattle to feed and sell per year. Oh wait…you mean it’s not a real ranch? I thought all the real cowboys lived in Aspen.

Comment by Apartment 401
2018-08-07 15:04:42

If you’re gonna get arrested anywhere in Colorado, get arrested in Aspen.

Don’t ask how I know.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by rms
2018-08-07 18:35:07

“A 244-acre Aspen ranch, once listed for nearly $60 million, sold at auction yesterday for $12.75 million.”

OMG… that’s gotta hurt like a high altitude sunburn!

 
 
Comment by ibbots
2018-08-07 11:37:22

The largest undeveloped property in Frisco has changed hands.
And the billionaire buyers are working on plans for a major mixed-use development. Hunt Realty Investors purchased the 2,544-acre Headquarters Ranch in Frisco from the estate of Bert Fields Jr.

“It’s not every day we get to help master plan more than 2,500 acres holistically,” Frisco Mayor Jeff Chaney said in a statement.

holistically, that’s funny.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2018/08/07/friscos-largest-vacant-property-sells-billionaire-developers-massive-project-plans

Comment by da bear
2018-08-07 18:22:26

The Hunt boys should stick to silver.

da bear

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-07 11:44:01

‘The natural question now becomes: Is the market simply taking a breather before surging back up again, or is this the beginning of a new normal — or, even, a sign of a bubble beginning to form?’

Note to Seattle Times: the bubble was the 80 or so months of double digit price increases.

Comment by BlueSkye
2018-08-07 14:10:27

the bubble was the 80 or so months of double digit price increases…

This is how you know the “reporter” was being misinformed by a realtor. To them the bubble is the crash.

 
 
Comment by SWFL
2018-08-07 11:56:37

Speaking of lovely realtors, I recently inquired about a property that has been on the market in Southwest Florida for nearly the entirety of the past 460 days. (during which time the list price has been reduced 6 times for a total of about $70,000)

I simply asked the listing agent if she would be so kind as to send me a few more pictures of certain areas of the home that were not visible in the listing as well as the dimensions of the garage door since her office is only a few miles from the property. (I’m not currently in FL to go look at it)

Her reply?…

If you don’t have your own buyers agent here is how this works. I don’t work with customers until they’re financially qualified. Once financially qualified you will sign a contract with me prior to me doing any work for you.

So, this woman who could make as much as $20,000 if the house sells and I don’t have my own agent, refuses to so much as take a handful of pictures and measure a door opening for me unless I jump though a bunch of hoops for HER!

When I got back up off the floor and sat back down at my desk I thought long and hard about contacting the poor, unsuspecting property owner directly. But I decided I’d wait a bit, document our entire email exchange, and then just forward the whole works to him and to her boss/agency at the same time.

Unfu<k!ng Believable…

 
Comment by Anonymous
2018-08-07 11:58:38

OT… Anyone following this story today? Maybe Elon is just stoned, LOL.

“Tesla shares halted after string of Musk tweets on possibly taking company private”

…”Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured,” the tweet said… The situation became further confused when Musk’s account tweeted “Good Morning” with a smiley-face emoji at about 1:30 p.m. ET. In addition, some observers said the number “420″ is associated with marijuana.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/07/tesla-stock-jumps-on-musks-tweet-that-he-is-considering-taking-compan.html

Comment by tango_uniform
2018-08-07 13:24:16

Rumors are that The Kingdom’s petrodollars are looking for a place to rest and Elon opened a tent flap for them.

Comment by Carl Morris
2018-08-07 14:38:52

Also The Kingdom does want to diversify out of anything oil related. I could see how electric cars and batteries could seem attractive in that case, even if overpriced and only jokingly offered by a stoner.

Comment by OneAgainstMany
2018-08-07 16:32:48

This is a very interesting development. Saudi Arabia has been making a huge push into renewable energy, tech, and tourism. They look to be taking a page out of Norway and the success that they have had with their sovereign wealth fund, which is highly dependent on oil but uses the windfall to diversify.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-08-07 17:38:52

It’s yet another gargantuan example of how to squander a fortune.

 
 
 
 
 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post