August 11, 2018

They Can’t Even Sell It For What They Paid

A report from WWSB My Suncoast in Florida. “Are you having trouble selling your home in Sarasota or Bradenton? One Sarasota realtor said she gets hundreds of calls every week from people who can’t sell their homes. Alan Schwambach has lived at the Greyhawk Landing development in Bradenton for 15 years. He said when he listed his home, he didn’t expect to have any problems selling it for more than he bought it for. But here it is now, two months and three price drops later, with still no bites. ‘This whole thing right now is just, it’s just discouraging,’ Schwambach explained.”

“It was easy to hear the frustration in his voice. He sees the worth in every one of the $749,000 his home is listed for. ‘We paid like $568,000 and then we had $105,000 on the lot, so we’re over almost $700,000,’ Schwambach explained. ‘Well with $700,000 and we can’t even get $600,000? There’s something wrong with that picture.’”

“But it’s not just him. There are 20 other homes listed for sale in his community. ‘Most of them are $500,000 and $400,000 and they’re not selling,’ said Dawn Cohen. ‘And the last four sales in the last 30 days were all under $400,000.’ Dawn Cohen is the realtor with Premier Plus Realty who has agreed to sell the Schwambach’s home, but she said she isn’t surprised that there hasn’t been any interest.”

“This is a story she hears hundreds of times a week. ‘All I can say is the supply and demand is causing the pricing to go up and the new construction is more popular,’ Cohen explained. ‘So the more people that want to buy and the more people that choose new construction, choose not to buy resales.’”

“Cohen said the majority of her calls come from baby boomers who also preferred to buy new without planning ahead. Five years later, their spouse passes away or needs to move to a nursing home and they can no longer afford the brand new home. ‘They can’t even sell it for what they paid for it,’ Cohen explained. Cohen also added that this is the peak of the housing market, so anyone who would like to sell their homes should list it at market value.”

The Spokesman Review in Washington. “Buying a home in Spokane County just got a little more affordable. Average prices dropped about $10,000 between June and July – a cool-down that local Realtors attributed to discouraged buyers choosing to wait out the competitive market. ‘When you have buyers loosing out on three to four homes, and having to fight in multiple situations, they’re getting exhausted and tapping out,’ said Ken Sax, president of the Spokane Association of Realtors.”

“Sax also attributed the drop in prices to overconfident sellers adjusting their expectations. Some sellers are finding they have to reduce their asking price to generate interest in the property, he said. However, ‘it’s a hiccup, not a bubble bursting,’ Sax said of July’s lower prices. ‘Sellers are being more reasonable and sensible, and buyers will come back into the market when they’ve healed from their wounds.’”

“When the market is so competitive, buyers are forced into overpaying for houses. Some prospective buyers drop out of the market, Sax said, and others end up with higher mortgage payments.”

The Pueblo Chieftain in Colorado. “The red-hot housing market in Pueblo and other Colorado communities shows more signs of leveling or, possibly, starting to cool. ‘An early peak housing season (in April and May) has been met with an earlier than normal seasonal slowdown as buyer and seller behavior is changing amid the latest market conditions,’ the Colorado Association of Realtors said.”

“In Colorado Springs, sales remained hot but ‘the boots-on-the-ground sentiment from Realtors working in the Pikes Peak market indicate the winds of change, an overall feeling that the buying and selling season is slowing prematurely and pointing to a potential shift in the overall housing demand,’ real estate agent Patrick Muldoon said.”

“In the Pueblo and Pueblo West area, the market remained robust in July but sales showed ‘a slight down trend,’ said David Anderson, the Pueblo area’s spokesman for the state association and an agent with RE/MAX Pueblo West.”

The Sacramento Bee in California. “Good news for Sacramento County home shoppers. The median sales price last month dropped by $5,000. In a sign the area’s housing market is softening, the county’s median price dropped to $370,000, one of the few monthly drops during a seven-year run of rising home prices. The number of homes for sale has increased, while the number of sales has dropped in recent months.”

“‘I really think that is a red flag,’ said Sacramento real estate analyst Ryan Lundquist. It’s not panic-button time for sellers or economy watchers, though, Lundquist said. It will take a few more months to know if the area’s real estate market is headed for a serious slump. ‘We are in this place where it is almost like a dating relationship. You need more time to see how it is going to go.’”

“Real estate watchers say the summer slowdown is an indication that high home prices and rising mortgage interest rates have forced some would-be buyers to back away, which in turn is forcing home sellers to accept lower prices.”

From KRON 4 in California. “The number of people in California that can afford to buy a home continues to fall. According to California’s Association of Realtors, high home prices and rising interest rates are to blame. But there are undiscovered areas where Century 21 Realtor Janella Anguiano says you can get a deal in the heart of Castro Valley. A three-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home is listed at $769,000. Just three weeks ago, a house across the street with two bedrooms, smaller in square footage, just sold for $11,000 more.”

“‘I want to get people in the door,’ Anguiano said. ‘I don’t want to be priced at that price where people think, ‘Oh, we have to overbid that.’ That’s what causing the overbid and overbid or pricing it too high to start with and then having to reduce it.’”

“‘I try to cue my sellers to price their homes lower than the neighborhood sales because when you price your home at the last sale, that’s what that buyer was willing to pay for that home and that’s why we’re starting to see price reductions here and there because we are starting it at where the last home sold for,’ Anguiano said.”




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90 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-11 08:03:44

‘One Sarasota realtor said she gets hundreds of calls every week from people who can’t sell their homes.’

Any trolls want to step in here?

‘He said when he listed his home, he didn’t expect to have any problems selling it for more than he bought it for. But here it is now, two months and three price drops later, with still no bites. ‘We paid like $568,000 and then we had $105,000 on the lot, so we’re over almost $700,000,’ Schwambach explained. ‘Well with $700,000 and we can’t even get $600,000? There’s something wrong with that picture.’

There is Alan. Stop listening to the REIC.

Comment by 2banana
2018-08-11 08:14:08

Once you step on the property ladder you are not allowed to step back off…

There is something wrong paying $700,000+ for a nothing special house in Florida

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-11 08:19:56

Yeah, it was real easy to float higher and higher, wasn’t it? Everyone was making the big bucks, putting in pools, taking vacations. Suddenly, “seven hundred thousand dollars is a sh$tload of money!”

Comment by 2banana
2018-08-11 08:23:42

Especially with the average income at around $45k…

The days of cheap and easy obama bucks are coming to an end.

700,000 pesos!!!! Muy caro!!!!

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-11 08:32:10

Diane, you’re gonna have a hard time getting ahead of this one.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-11 08:53:43

Boo f**king hoo, Alan. Guys like you who paid such outrageously inflated prices are what priced housing out of reach for the fiscally prudent and those with median incomes. There is indeed “something wrong with this picture” - once again, we have a housing bubble created by greed, speculation, and loose lending. Let the Great Reset begin!

Comment by ibbots
2018-08-11 10:34:37

Yep, those don’t look like $700k houses. Alan is one of those guys who had a box full of (borrowed) money and a bucket full of stupid.

 
Comment by Skepticpessimistic
2018-08-11 14:01:42

Allan’s original listing price in June was $1,200,000 he has dropped it to 749k and has since taken the property off the market…

 
 
Comment by BlueSkye
2018-08-11 10:57:31

‘They can’t even sell it for what they paid for it,’ Cohen explained. Cohen also added that this is the peak of the housing market…”

Do Realtors even realize when they’ve explained their lie in the previous sentence?

 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-11 12:55:56

Alan f-d up.

And now Alan is a f-d seller.

See how that works?

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-11 08:05:13

‘It’s not panic-button time for sellers or economy watchers, though, Lundquist said. It will take a few more months to know if the area’s real estate market is headed for a serious slump’

There’s that P word again.

Comment by 2banana
2018-08-11 08:15:52

Panic only works for the first few that want to get through the door…

The rest die in the flames.

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-11 09:04:39

“Fear has very large eyes.” — Russian proverb

Comment by rms
2018-08-11 20:13:40

Something sinister about that one.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-11 08:07:52

‘Some sellers are finding they have to reduce their asking price to generate interest in the property, he said. However, ‘it’s a hiccup, not a bubble bursting,’ Sax said of July’s lower prices.’

Oh there’s one troll that’s gonna crap his pants on this.

‘When the market is so competitive, buyers are forced into overpaying for houses. Some prospective buyers drop out of the market, Sax said, and others end up with higher mortgage payments’

Comment by 2banana
2018-08-11 08:18:35

God bless DJT, higher interest rates and the great QE unwind

And Mel Watt retiring in 2019.

 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2018-08-11 09:42:54

This current environment reminds me of 1987. In 1986, mortgage interest rates got into the single digits for the first time in about 7 or 8 years, and in 1987 they went up and the volume of real estate transactions ground to a virtual halt.

Keep your eye on the bond market. Market prices normally rocket up and feather down. Right now I think we are at the stage where people realize that mortgage rates are not going to go back down to the levels we saw back in 2016 and before.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-11 13:14:21

“Right now I think we are at the stage where people realize that mortgage rates are not going to go back down to the levels we saw back in 2016 and before.”

Everybody who could refinance at 2016 rates did. Now that rates are normalizing, nobody with an existing mortgage has an incentive to refinance, which explains why the bottom dropped out from under the refinancing market.

 
 
Comment by foobarbaz
2018-08-11 09:48:31

I can cherry pick too lol

–Colorado Springs ranks No. 6 in nation for housing price increases–

“In July, the local median price of $310,000 was up nearly 9 percent year over year, according to the Pikes Peak Association of Realtors.”

https://gazette.com/business/colorado-springs-ranks-no-in-nation-for-housing-price-increases/article_d4ddaf84-9cd8-11e8-8761-cf46dcd83475.html

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-11 10:17:13

Comment by foobarbaz
2018-08-04

“Besides a couple of outliers prices have not been falling.”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10517#comment-2672203

Worst timing in the history of the internet.

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-11 13:58:45

This guy either just bought a house, or is desperately trying to unload one at peak prices.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-11 13:53:13

Cherry pick this.

Housing market has hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says
By Jeremy C. Owens
Published: Aug 11, 2018 12:17 p.m. ET
Redfin stock dives after top exec says sudden downfall is expected to continue in August and September

 
Comment by FED Up
2018-08-11 16:39:49

The median income in Colorado Springs is ~ $60,000.

Comment by rms
2018-08-11 20:19:26

And that’s during good times.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-11 08:09:26

‘The red-hot housing market in Pueblo and other Colorado communities shows more signs of leveling or, possibly, starting to cool. ‘An early peak housing season (in April and May) has been met with an earlier than normal seasonal slowdown as buyer and seller behavior is changing amid the latest market conditions’

It’s like ebola.

Comment by 2banana
2018-08-11 08:21:07

Ebola is more like the California infestors

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-11 08:27:10

“… as buyer and seller behavior is changing amid the latest market conditions.”

Translation: The market has peaked and thus the bidding wars among buyers have ceased and the price reductions by sellers have commenced.

Which means: Sellers who have been holding out for higher prices before putting their houses on the market will see the light and will now put their houses on the market.

Which means: Buyers who were frantic about buying-now-or-being-priced-out-forever will also see the light and hence their sense of urgency will subside.

Which means: Prices of houses will fall and the volume of sales will fall and thus the income enjoyed by realtors will fall off.

Which means: Price declines of houses will destroy equity wealth which will feed into our stupid seventy-percent consumer-based economy.

Which means: We, all of us, will get to enjoy the pain and the opportunities that a recession now and then brings about.

Comment by BubblevilleCA
2018-08-11 16:01:42

Which means: Prices of houses will fall and the volume of sales will fall and thus the income enjoyed by realtors will fall off.

By far, my favorite part of this housing “cool” down (just call it as it is “bubble”)

 
 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-11 08:21:27

Is housing a vehicle for rich folks to separate poor folks from their meager wealth?

Economics
Many Americans Still Feel the Sting of Lost Wealth
The housing crash hurt the poor and middle class more than the rich, who rode the bull stock market.
By Noah Smith
August 8, 2018, 3:00 AM PDT
One dashed dream. Photographer: Matthew Staver/Bloomberg
Noah Smith is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He was an assistant professor of finance at Stony Brook University, and he blogs at Noahpinion.

The financial crisis and the Great Recession were absolutely devastating for the wealth of middle- and lower-income Americans. A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis shows just how big of a hit they took:

Comment by 2banana
2018-08-11 08:31:05

Coming from a marxists masquerading as a business magazine….

*****

To restore that dream, wealth will have to grow again for a broader swath of Americans. In a country with slow productivity growth and an aging population, that probably would require redistribution of wealth.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-11 08:52:37

“…that probably would require redistribution of wealth.”

The irony is that US housing policy is already a wealth redistribution scheme. Problem is, those don’t tend to work out as planned, as the intended sources of redistributed wealth tend to not cooperate very well.

 
Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-11 14:01:03

It’s “redistribution” when the money goes from the rich to the poor. It’s “capitalism” when it goes from the poor to the rich.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-11 14:15:33

What is it when the redistribution goes from the shrinking Middle Class to both the rich and the poor?

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-11 15:30:33

“What is it when the redistribution goes from the shrinking Middle Class to both the rich and the poor?”

It’s a thing of beauty in that lenders such as myself can take the redistribution process one step furthur and redistribute what goes to the poor into my coffers where God intends it to reside.

This is easy to do in that the poor are easy to convince that it is in their best interest to pass the bucks up to me.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-11 08:42:24

“… the middle- and lower-income Americans tend to hold much of their wealth in houses, while the upper class tends to own a lot of stocks.”

(snip)

“Families in both the bottom 50 percent and the middle 40 percent tend to have most of their money in houses (usually their own). The main difference between the two groups is debt — the bottom 50 percent relatively have a lot more of it, which cancels out their housing assets and leaves them with very little net worth. The top 10 percent, in contrast, have the bulk of their money in the stock market.”

“The main difference between the two groups is debt …”

You rang? 😁

Debt “cancels out their housing assets and leaves them with very little net worth”.

This modern debt-created miracle is performed one dotted line at a time.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-11 08:54:53

Nobody put a gun to anybody’s head and forced them to borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy an overpriced house.

Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-11 09:06:23

+1. There will be no “victims” here. The true victims were those denied affordable housing by the Fed’s deranged money printing and the speculation and asset bubbles it unleashed.

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Comment by Neuromance
2018-08-11 10:48:04

Runaway costs in:
* Education
* Medical care
* Housing

Consolidation of the production of value, due to computers and robotics.

Offshoring of the production of value.

Increasing wealth concentration.

Crony capitalism.

Political corruption.

Cultural changes due to decades of de facto open borders.

Inability/unwillingness of politicians to address these issues.

—————————-

One of my concerns is that instead of trying to fix the capitalist value-production engine, the PTB will double down on their redistributive policies. Monetary policy is covertly redistributive. As income inequality increases, there is a strong desire to simply double down on overt redistribution - a move to socialism and the like.

But like any government redistributionist policy, it will keep the truly wealthy safely away from the fray, and merely help the lower classes and harm the middle classes.

One concern is that in this industrial revolution - the information technology and robotics revolution - that there are no new ways for people to create value as computers and robots take over that field. If that comes to pass, then we would need some sort of redistributive economic model, which again would fall prey to the same problems as other redistributive models - corruption of the distributors, flawed/perverse incentives, favoritism, indolence of the population.

 
Comment by jeff
2018-08-11 12:44:52

“Runaway costs in:
* Education
* Medical care
* Housing”

Priced any new trucks lately?

 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-11 09:11:31

“Nobody put a gun to anybody’s head and forced them to borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy an overpriced house.”

Coercion gave ground to persuasion. It’s the modern way, don’t you know?

Educate millions of pukes early on about all the wonders that willingly taking on incredibly huge amounts of debt will offer up to them and then present before them a dotted line or two to sign and - Presto!- any wealth these pukes happen to run across will be magically transformed to becoming your wealth.

1.Dumb ‘em down, 2. profit.

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Comment by Neuromance
2018-08-11 10:28:14

I was thinking about the similarities and differences between a bitcoin and a non-voting, non-dividend-paying stock. I conclude they are very similar (the stock gets a favorable tax treatment which the bitcoin does not).

What do they both represent? A game (of chance, luck and perhaps skill - maybe like blackjack) in which people think they can win money if they are skillful enough.

As long as there are sufficient people who think they can win money at the game, both of these unique digital constructs can continue to be traded.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-11 10:40:19

“As long as there are sufficient people …”

… who have money or have access to money …

“… who think they can win money at the game, both of these unique digital constructs can continue to be traded.

 
Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-11 14:04:12

You’re leaving out the major component of “crypto” - FRAUD. I guarantee you that Tether is manipulating the price daily. Take today for instance - every time it tried to breach $6,000 there was huge support, and something caused it to shoot up over $400.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2018-08-11 16:18:47

Just heard a data point: “The richest 10 percent of Americans own 84 percent of stocks.”

Maybe this group is wired to enjoy games of chance more?

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-11 18:52:26

This is why I really enjoy stock market meltdowns.

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Comment by DirtyLawyer
2018-08-11 08:33:54

‘Well with $700,000 and we can’t even get $600,000? There’s something wrong with that picture.’

Well, gee - I think the “something” wrong is that you paid waaaay to much for the shack and you have run out of greater fools. And now you’re gonna get crushed.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-11 08:40:57

Great unwinding begins as ‘greater fool’ departs
The Australian-Aug 10, 2018

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-11 08:33:55

‘When you have buyers loosing out on three to four homes’

Is Ken a long time HBBer?

Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-11 09:20:19

Gotta be. He spelled “losing” as “loosing.”

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-11 08:38:44

‘I want to get people in the door…I don’t want to be priced at that price where people think, ‘Oh, we have to overbid that.’ That’s what causing the overbid and overbid or pricing it too high to start with and then having to reduce it.’

‘I try to cue my sellers to price their homes lower than the neighborhood sales because when you price your home at the last sale, that’s what that buyer was willing to pay for that home and that’s why we’re starting to see price reductions here and there because we are starting it at where the last home sold for’

Janella, are you saying the days of under-pricing and watching the love letters and higher bids roll in are over? Gosh, it’s almost like that behavior was irrational speculation all along.

I hope no one paid too much in such an environment.

Comment by 2banana
2018-08-11 08:42:15

I guess not selling to Trump supporters and requiring taking care of the squirrels in still a no brainer

 
Comment by Tim
2018-08-11 08:49:50

Even if prices remain constant, given the over-leverage, as soon as we hit a bump in the road in terms of the economy and some people are forced to sell we are going to trigger a foreclosure domino effect chain reaction. I think the housing market is already doused in gasoline. What do you guys will think will be the match? Will the trade war really have much of an impact, and what about rising interest rates? I lot of refi bankers need to be laid off. They are no longer needed, except perhaps for those with decent home equity that would need a home equity line to cover living expenses before they go under. How will Trump react? We have little stimulus available and he spoke out against bailouts, although we all know he would be the first in line to receive one.

Comment by drumminj
2018-08-11 08:56:34

we are going to trigger a foreclosure domino effect chain reaction

Assuming the banks want to actually foreclose. Last time around they didn’t so much, as they’ve been allowed to carry the houses/loans on their books at fantasy valuations, vs taking the actual loss if they were to foreclose and sell.

Good ol’ FASB 157

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-11 14:06:55

There are houses which have sat empty now for over 10 years.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2018-08-11 16:20:12

25 million excess empty and defaulted houses can be hidden for only so long.

 
 
Comment by rms
2018-08-12 09:29:35

“Assuming the banks want to actually foreclose.”

I ride past three different foreclosed houses that are still not up for sale. We are talking at least five years plus… sitting empty. These have sat through our icy winters likely frozen solid inside. Amazing that the city lets these neighborhood eyesores, tall weeds, broken fence, etc., sit for such a long time. They should be sold to local contractors who could revive them if they were set out for bid.

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Comment by Some Guy in Colorado
2018-08-11 08:48:49

Great blog! Historical info. for posterity and for those who claim that “they never saw it coming”, even though most have experienced both the upside and the downside of housing bubble 1.0.

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.’” - Sir John Templeton

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-anatomy-of-a-housing-bubble/
The anatomy of a housing bubble
Bob Thompson
May 21, 2016
“Every 20 years or so, investor dementia sets in. Memories are wiped clean, allowing individuals to make the same mistakes over and over again.”

and

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/10/5-steps-of-a-bubble.asp
The 5 steps of [an asset] bubble
1) Displacement
2) Boom
3) Euphoria [This phase is ending, although not everyone realizes it yet.]
4) Profit Taking [This phase is starting, the smart money is on it, but many are still in denial.]
5) Panic [This phase is coming to a theater near you. Got popcorn?]

Russel Casse: “Payback’s a bitch, ain’t it?” – “Independence Day” (1996)
(“Price discovery’s a bitch, ain’t it?” - Paraphrase in the era of Keynesian economics, fiat currency and Central Banking.)

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” - George Santayana

“The popularity of inflation and credit expansion, the ultimate source of the repeated attempts to render people prosperous by credit expansion, and thus the cause of the cyclical fluctuations of business, manifests itself clearly in the customary terminology. The boom is called good business, prosperity, and upswing. Its unavoidable aftermath, the readjustment of conditions to the real data of the market, is called crisis, slump, bad business, depression. People rebel against the insight that the disturbing element is to be seen in the malinvestment and the overconsumption of the boom period and that such an artificially induced boom is doomed. They are looking for the philosophers’ stone to make it last.” — Ludwig von Mises (1940)

Cheers

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-11 09:00:17

“Every 20 years or so, investor dementia sets in.”

This Housing Bubble is on a recurrence scale of centuries, and in fact may be a one-time, never to recur event, like Tulipmania, or the South Sea Bubble.

The 20-year dementia cycle is not applicable.

Comment by Some Guy in Colorado
2018-08-11 09:17:08

PB,
Oh, you mean like housing bubble 1.0 (2004-2010)… :)

Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-11 14:03:51

No, like The Housing Bubble (1997-2018+).

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Comment by BlueSkye
2018-08-11 14:16:21

This is the same mania. It is the biggest housing mania in history and the biggest credit expansion in history.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2018-08-11 15:31:36

Exactly my point.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by drumminj
2018-08-11 08:54:19

Seems to be a number of new posters and old posters returning, so figure it’s a good time to remind folks about the JoshuaTree extension for Chrome and Firefox, which makes keeping up with this blog easier/a more enjoyable experience.

Hilights new comments since your last visit, allows you to tag users to ignore and automatically hides their posts, makes formatting your posts (bold, italic, etc) easier, allows you to preview your comments before sending, etc.

For Chrome
For Firefox

And as always, if you like/use the extension (looks like there are 70+ of you now!), all I ask is that you donate to Ben to help keep this blog running.

Comment by drumminj
2018-08-11 08:58:40

(Thank you Ben for your continued effort providing content and moderating the rabble)

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-11 08:57:40

‘All I can say is the supply and demand is causing the pricing to go up and the new construction is more popular,’ Cohen explained. ‘So the more people that want to buy and the more people that choose new construction, choose not to buy resales.’”

You keep telling yourself that, Ms. Cohen. Saavy buyers see that the market has turned, and don’t want to overpay. As seller greed turns to panic, the deals are only going to get better for those who wait.

Got popcorn?

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-11 09:10:58

Sounds like builders are undercutting resales.

Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-11 09:24:12

Gosh, I hope no one overpaid in such an environment.

 
Comment by rms
2018-08-12 09:59:58

I remember the builders undercutting our local HELOCs following the last bubble bursting.

 
 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2018-08-11 09:53:07

“Got popcorn”
Boo Randy - did you post as Neil here in the past?
To echo drumminj’s comment above, a lot of posters from the past are returning.
I’m trying to keep up with the changing handles around here.

Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-11 10:02:10

No, I’ve never posted as “Neil.”

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2018-08-11 10:52:00

If I recall correctly, a poster who called himself Neil started the “Got popcorn?” tagline on this blog about 10 years ago. That’s why I asked.

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Comment by BlueSkye
2018-08-11 14:18:53

Neil bought a house. No more popcorn in the bleachers for him.

 
 
 
Comment by rms
2018-08-12 10:01:46

“…a lot of posters from the past are returning.”

+1 Déjà vu.

 
 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-11 08:59:28

‘When you have buyers loosing out on three to four homes, and having to fight in multiple situations, they’re getting exhausted and tapping out,’ said Ken Sax, president of the Spokane Association of Realtors.”

Oh they’re not exhausted, Ken. They have the patience of circling vultures.

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-11 09:17:20

‘‘I try to cue my sellers to price their homes lower than the neighborhood sales because when you price your home at the last sale, that’s what that buyer was willing to pay for that home and that’s why we’re starting to see price reductions here and there because we are starting it at where the last home sold for’

This reveals something about buying a house compared to say, a car. Would anyone here engage in a bidding war for a car? Would anyone expect a car to go up in value within months, much less by huge amounts? But that’s exactly what many people have believed about houses. It’s not rational.

This is why bidders have considered it a “win.” They are happy with the so-called “frenzy” because it reinforces their irrational behavior. If someone overpays for a car, bad luck. If someone overpays for an old shack in California, get ready to start your financial life over.

Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-11 09:26:53

All those “winning bidders” are going to be cautionary tales.

 
 
Comment by rms
2018-08-12 10:04:23

“…buyers loosing out…”

Ken Sax, president of the Spokane Association of Realtors = looser[sic]. :)

 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-11 09:14:10

‘Sellers are being more reasonable and sensible, and buyers will come back into the market when they’ve healed from their wounds.’”

I just love these realtor attempts at happy talk. Considering how rapidly the pipeline of Greater Fools is drying up, sellers who face the prospect of being deeply underwater as Housing Bubble 2.0 bursts had better bail while the bailing is good.

Comment by DirtyLawyer
2018-08-11 11:19:51

buyers will come back into the market when they’ve healed from their wounds.

What a load of sh#t. Where do these morons come up with this stuff?

 
Comment by Anonymous
2018-08-11 15:28:10

LOL, the only buyers with wounds are the ones who already bought and are going to end up selling at a loss.

 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-11 09:21:19

Bend, OR Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY As Housing Gamblers Get Stuck With Empty Houses

https://www.movoto.com/bend-or/market-trends/

 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-11 10:32:38

Brace for impact.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-11/david-stockman-world-economy-epochal-pivot

There are few people alive who understand the global economy and its (mis)management better than David Stockman — former director of the OMB under President Reagan, former US Representative, best-selling author of The Great Deformation, and veteran financier — which is why his perspective is not to be dismissed lightly. He knows intimiately how how our political and financial systems work, as well as what their vulnerabilties are.

And Stockman thinks the top for the current asset price bubble era is in — specifically, he thinks it hit its apex in January 2018. As this “Everything Bubble” prepares to burst, Stockman estimates the risk of economic crisis is as great, if not greater than, the 2008 Great Financial Crisis because of the radical and unsustainable monetary policy expansion the central banks have pursued over the past decade.

This has caused the prices of stocks, bonds, real estate and most other assets to appreciate at rates that have no basis in the ongoing income/cash flow of the global economy. In short, they are wildly overvalued.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2018-08-11 10:43:50

It’s a (very stupid) borrowed money economy.

Comment by Anonymous
2018-08-11 15:29:29

And I wonder how all this will turn out?

 
 
 
Comment by Boo Randy
2018-08-11 11:26:31

Ready for the reverse wealth effect, bubbleonians?

https://www.dollarcollapse.com/housing-bubble-popping-reverse-wealth-effect/

Comment by azdude
2018-08-11 14:15:43

u simply are not bearish enough.

 
 
Comment by Anonymous
2018-08-11 15:35:49

Per zillow, 77 homes for sale today in Sun City Summerlin. Including 15 in “pre-foreclosure.”

Geez, the retirees already can’t keep up with their mortgage payments? Maybe these are some of the seniors who are going bankrupt, as described in the article posted here the other day.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Sun-City-Summerlin-Las-Vegas-NV/275613_rid/pricea_sort/36.238873,-115.244866,36.169199,-115.360394_rect/12_zm/

(Sort by “cheapest” to see the pre-foreclosures)

Comment by Ben Jones
2018-08-11 16:12:54

10800 Button Willow Dr
Las Vegas, NV 89134
2 beds 2 baths 2,886 sqft
For Sale
$665,000
Price cut: -$22,000 (7/16)

Date Event Price $/sqft
7/16/2018 Price change $665,000 -3.2% $230
5/12/2018 Price change $687,000 -1.2% $238
3/21/2018 Price change $695,000 -7.3% $241
3/7/2018 Listed for sale $750,000 103.8% $260
6/5/1997 Sold $368,000 – $128

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2018-08-11 19:21:42

Not gonna “give it away.”

 
 
 
Comment by Mortgage Watch
2018-08-11 16:29:08

Arlington, VA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY Barbecuing NoVA/DC Homeowners

https://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/

 
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